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November 29, 2012
Stocks on Wall Street were higher throughout the morning but fell sharply after tough words from House Speaker John Boehner aimed at Democrats and the White House. The initial reading on gross domestic product growth in the third quarter was revised up and October pending home sales were higher than expected, but the economic data was largely overshadowed by the ongoing political drama that continues to drive the market's swings. The averages quickly recovered a bit after the end of Boehner's press conference but head into the second half of the trading day well off their earlier highs... ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., weekly jobless claims dropped 23,000 from last week's upwardly revised level to 393,000, versus expectations for claims to fall to 390,0000. The Commerce Department revised its estimate for the gain in Q3 GDP to 2.7% from the previously reported 2% gain. Analysts expected growth to be revised to a 2.8% rate. However, within the report, Q3 consumer spending was lowered to a 1.4% growth rate from the 2% gain previously reported. Pending home sales rose 5.2% in October from the prior month, versus expectations for an increase of 1%. In Europe, the Bank of England urged commercial banks to bolster their capital levels. Also, the European Commission's monthly business and consumer survey showed a measure of economic sentiment rose to 85.7, beating forecasts, with Germany and France gaining strongly... COMPANY NEWS: Among retailers reporting November same store sales, Limited (LTD) was one of the few to beat expectations and its shares advanced 1%. Among those declining after reporting worse than expected November comparable sales were Kohl's (KSS), Gap (GPS), Macy's (M), Target (TGT) and Nordstrom (JWN)... Several retail stocks also moved following earnings reports, with Tiffany (TIF) and Aeropostale (ARO) among the notable decliners. Guess (GES), however, advanced after its quarterly report and the declaration of a $1.20 per share special dividend... MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers were Infoblox (BLOX), up 36% following its better than expected earnings and guidance, and Research in Motion (RIMM), up 6% after Goldman Sachs raised its rating on shares to Buy with a $16 price target. Among the noteworthy losers were Liquidity Services (LQDT), down 17%, and Barnes & Noble (BKS), down 10%, after their earnings reports. Also lower were shares of Advance Auto Parts (AAP), down 6% after Reuters and the New York Post said private equity bids for the company fell short of Advance's expectations, and that a sale may now be unlikely... INDICES: Near noon, the Dow was down 1.11, or 0.01%, to 12,984.00; the Nasdaq was up 9.83, or 0.33%, to 3,001.61; and the S&P 500 was up 2.09, or 0.15%, to 1,412.02.
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November 18, 2015
08:04 EDTTGTTarget narrows FY15 adjusted EPS view to $4.65-$4.75 from $4.60-$4.75
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08:03 EDTTGTTarget sees Q4 adjusted EPS $1.48-$1.58, consensus $1.54
08:02 EDTTGTTarget narrows FY15 adjusted EPS view to $4.65-$4.75 from $4.60-$4.75
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08:00 EDTTGTTarget reports Q3 adjusted EPS 86c, consensus 86c
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07:59 EDTTIFTiffany price target lowered to $90 from $97 at Cowen
Cowen lowered its price target on Tiffany to $90 from $97 citing near term caution on global macro conditions. The firm remains positive longer term citing product innovation, geographic expansion of it store base and improving CRM capabilities. Cowen reiterated its Outperform rating on Tiffany shares.
05:41 EDTGPSGap implied volatility of 43 at upper end of index mean range
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November 17, 2015
15:17 EDTTGTTarget November 73 straddle priced for 6% movement into Q3
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15:13 EDTTGTNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
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12:53 EDTTGTEarnings Watch: Analysts bullish on Target's Q3 comps ahead of earnings report
Target (TGT) is scheduled to report third quarter results before the market open on Wednesday, November 18, with a conference call scheduled for 10:30 am ET. Target offers merchandise at discounted prices through its retail stores and online business. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 86c on revenue of $17.57B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 81c-89c on revenue of $17.42B-$17.76B. In its last earnings report, Target forecast Q3 adjusted EPS 79c-89c Q3 comparable sales up 1%-2%. LAST QUARTER: Target reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $1.22, beating analysts' estimates for $1.11, on revenue of $17.43B, generally in line with analysts' $17.4B consensus. The company said comparable sales increased 2.4% in Q2. Looking ahead, Target raised its fiscal year 2015 adjusted EPS view to $4.60-$4.75 from $4.50-$4.65 against estimates at that time for $4.62. On its earnings conference call, Target said it felt "great" about its fourth quarter plans and said it will be "very promotional" in that quarter. NEWS: On August 25, Target said it expects to record a pretax gain of approximately $550M after closing the transaction with CVS Pharmacy (CVS) to sell its pharmacy and clinic businesses for cash consideration of approximately $1.9B. Target also entered into a development agreement with CVS, through which it may jointly develop small-format stores, Target said. The transaction is expected to be accretive to EPS after closing. On September 10, Cherokee (CHKE) announced that Target elected not to renew the license of the Cherokee brand in the U.S., which will expire at the end of its current term on January 31, 2017. Target said on September 30 that it will update its Price Match Policy by expanding digitally and extending its timeframe to 14 days compared to 7 days. The retailer later announced plans to bring back free shipping and returns through the holiday season. STREET RESEARCH: Ahead of the company's earnings report, Piper Jaffray analyst Sean Naughton acknowledged that while sentiment is challenging on Target's stock amid the weakness being reported by a number of retailers this week, he believes Target's Q3 SSS are within the company's guidance of up 1%-2%. The analyst believes Target's fundamentals may be holding up better than some expected. He has an Overweight rating and $88 price target on the stock. Stifel also believes Target will report an above Street comp of 2% versus consensus of 1.7% and inline earnings of 86c. Analyst David A. Schick checks indicate strong merchandising and customer response to key holidays and said PCE trends suggest there is still room for comp upside. Last week, Citi analyst Kate McShane said that in a head-to-head comparison between Costco Wholesale (COST), Target and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), three of the biggest broadlines retailers in the world, Target is the "surprising" winner. McShane said that Target "wins" on potential for EPS growth, operating margin and valuation. PRICE ACTION: Target shares are down over 7% over the past three months. In early afternoon trading ahead of Wednesday's earnings report, shares are up about 1.7% to $73.54.
10:42 EDTGPSGap volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
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10:20 EDTTIFOptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: SGMS HZNP CSC ULTA RH BURL GME AEO BBRY TIF
10:11 EDTKSS, MOptions with decreasing implied volatility
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09:02 EDTTGTAnalyst pans competing products, says buy Fitbit
Shares of previous high-flier Fitbit (FIT) have dropped about 30% in the last two weeks following the company's third quarter earnings report, but an analyst at Bank of America upgraded his view of the fitness tracker maker this morning, saying that now is the time to buy ahead of fourth quarter results that may be boosted by the "underwhelming" new products being launched by its competitors. UNDERWHELMING COMPETITION: Fitbit's sales guidance for this holiday quarter looks conservative, contends Bank of America analyst Nat Schindler, who notes that the company only had the launch of one new product last December but will have the Charge, Charge HR and Surge to drive sales this season. Schindler also notes that the company's international advertising has expanded into more countries ahead of the holidays this year. Key, however, may be the "underwhelming" lineup of new or updated fitness trackers launched by competitors, such as the Microsoft's (MSFT) Band 2, Jawbone's UP4 and Sony's (SNE) Smartband 2, many of which have only minor improvements and no "must have" features to pull consumers away from Fitbit, Schindler told investors in his research note. PLATFORM PICKING UP STEAM: The analyst also pointed out that Fitbit now has more than 20 companies signed onto its health and wellness platform, including big names like Target (TGT) and Barclays (BCS), which he believes should help drive revenue beats in the upcoming fiscal year due to increased device sales. Also, the additional dashboard data should help Fitbit maintain long-term user engagement, said Schindler. APPLE WATCH: Apple's (AAPL) Apple Watch is largely viewed as the biggest potential competitive threat to Fitbit's offerings, but on the fitness tracker maker's last earnings call CEO James Park said Fitbit's products differ from those of its competitors in several key aspects, including pricing, cross-platform compatibility, brand awareness and product line breadth. Other wearables makers include Garmin (GRMN) and Samsung. PRICE ACTION: Since the day after Fitbit's last earnings report after the market close on November 2, its shares have fallen about 29.5% to close yesterday at $28.80. In pre-market trading this morning, Fitbit shares rose 2% to $29.40.
08:01 EDTKSSKohl's names Sona Chawla as COO
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07:45 EDTJWNNordstrom price target lowered to $63 from $82 at UBS
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05:43 EDTBLOXInfoblox appoints Ashish Gupta as Chief Marketing Officer
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05:36 EDTGPSGap implied volatility of 42 at upper end of index mean range
November 16, 2015
16:43 EDTMGreenlight Capital added Apple, sold some SunEdison
Greenlight Capital gave a quarterly update on its stakes in a filing this afternoon. NEW STAKES: CNX Coal Resources (CNXC), Garmin (GRMN), Terraform Global (GLBL), and Liberty Global (LILA). INCREASED STAKES: Apple (AAPL), Michael Kors (KORS), Dillard's (DDS), UIL Holdings (UIL), and Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA). DECREASED STAKES: SunEdison (SUNE), Micron (MU), Voya (VOYA), Applied Materials (AMAT), and SunEdison Semiconductor (SEMI). LIQUIDATED STAKES: Citizens Financial (CFG), Lam Research (LRCX), Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Hertz (HTZ), and Macy's (M).
11:35 EDTKSS, JWN, MDillard's sinks to 52-week low after joining chorus of 'disappointed' retailers
Shares of Dillard's (DDS), a retailer of fashion apparel, cosmetics and home furnishing, are falling to their worst level in a year after the company became the latest in its industry to report lower than expected third quarter results. WHAT'S NEW: This morning, Dillard's reported Q3 earnings per share of $1.19 and revenue of $1.435B, narrowly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.20 and $1.49B, respectively. Same-store sales for the quarter fell 4%. Total merchandise sales decreased 3% for the 13-week period ended October 31. Weaker performing categories were men's apparel and accessories and ladies' accessories and lingerie with notable weakness in home and furniture the company explained. Dillard's Chief Executive Officer, William T. Dillard, II, stated, "We are disappointed with our third quarter sales performance and in the resulting decline in profit. Share buyback remained a high priority, and we repurchased $175 million of stock under our share repurchase program." WHAT'S NOTABLE: Gross margin from retail operations improved 11 basis points of sales for the 13 weeks ended October 31 compared to the prior year third quarter. Consolidated gross margin for the 13 weeks ended October 31 declined 30 basis points of sales compared to the prior year third quarter. The disparity between retail and consolidated gross margin performance is attributable to increased revenue at CDI, which is a substantially lower margin business. Inventory increased 6% at October 31 compared to November 1, 2014. For FY15, the company expects capital expenditures of $150M. PRICE ACTION: In late morning trading, Dillard's fell $5.81, or 7.5%, to $71.79 on more than three times its average daily trading volume. Earlier in the session, the stock hit a fresh 52-week low of $68.05. Including today's pull back, the shares have lost about 36% over the past 12 months. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other apparel, cosmetics and home furnishing retailers include Macy's (M), Kohl's (KSS), JC Penny (JCP), Sears (SHLD) and Nordstrom (JWN).
10:25 EDTJWN, M, KSSOptions with decreasing implied volatility
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