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January 10, 2014
09:14 EDTFIVE, PUBGY, ANF, SHLD, BLDP, PSUN, OMC, AA, TGT, MNKD, YRCW, ICPT, MOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
HIGHER: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), up 15% after company raises FY adjusted EPS view, shares upgraded at Janney Capital. Macy's (M), up 1.2% after upgraded at Goldman... Intercept (ICPT), up 33.5% after price targets raised at Citigroup, BofA/Merrill and Oppenheimer... Omnicom (OMC), up 2% after Reuters reported EU clears merger with Publicis (PUBGY). LOWER: Target (TGT), down 1% after lowering Q4 comparable sales view, disclosing that information from up to 70M guests taken during data breach... Sears (SHLD), down 11% after saying fourth quarter sales-to-date are down 7.6% and projecting fourth quarter and fiscal-2013 losses that were larger-than-expected... Alcoa (AA), down 6.5% after earnings miss expectations... Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), down 18.4% after sales metrics, guidance, downgrade at Janney Capital... Five Below (FIVE), down 9.7% after cutting fourth quarter guidance... YRC Worldwide (YRCW), down 20% after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced that employees did not approve the memorandum of understanding extension proposal made by the company... MannKind (MNKD), down 11.6% after announcing tentative date of FDA advisory committee review of Afrezza.
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November 11, 2015
08:01 EDTMMacy's reports Q3 EPS 56c ex-items, consensus 54c
Reports Q3 revenue $5.87B, consensus $6.09B. Macy's reported earnings per share of 36 cents in the third quarter of 2015, ended Oct. 31, 2015. Excluding asset impairment charges of $111 million, or 20 cents per share, primarily related to the previously-announced plans to close 35 to 40 stores in early 2016, third quarter earnings per share were 56 cents per share. This compares with 61 cents per diluted share in the third quarter of 2014.
November 10, 2015
16:00 EDTMNKDOptions Update; November 10, 2015
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15:27 EDTMMacy's options volume call/put ratio 2.49 : 1 into Q3
14:44 EDTMNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
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14:31 EDTMMacy's November weekly 47 straddle priced for 9.6% movement into Q3
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13:13 EDTMEarnings Watch: Analysts downbeat on Macy's Q3 earnings report
Macy's (M) is scheduled to report third quarter earnings before the market open on Wednesday, November 11 with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET. Macy's is a retailer that sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 53c on revenue of $6.09B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 36c-63c on revenue of $5.92B-$6.18B. LAST QUARTER: Macy's reported second quarter EPS of 64c on revenue of $6.1B, below estimates for 76c and $6.23B, respectively. Comparable sales growth on an owned plus licensed basis for Q2 declined 1.5%. On an owned basis, Q2 same-store sales declined by 2.1%. The retailer cited a variety of factors for its "disappointing" Q2 performance, including internal and macroeconomic factors. Looking ahead, the retailer maintained its fiscal year 2015 EPS view of $4.70-$4.80, against estimates at that time for $4.63, but lowered its FY15 guidance for SSS on an owned plus licensed basis to be approximately flat, compared with previous guidance for growth of approximately 2%. Comparable sales on an owned basis will be approximately 50 basis points lower than on an owned plus licensed basis. The company expects total sales to be down by approximately 1% in 2015, compared to previous guidance for total sales growth of approximately 1%. Guidance was lowered for SSS and total sales primarily based on weaker than expected sales performance in the first half of the year. The company said it expects an improvement in trend beginning in the second half of the year. NEWS: In conjunction with its last earnings release, Macy's and Tishman Speyer said they signed a real estate purchase and sale agreement, under which Macy's will continue to own and operate the first four floors and lower level of its existing nine-story Fulton Street retail store, which will be reconfigured and remodeled, while Tishman Speyer will buy the area Macy's will not retain. Tishman Speyer also said it would buy Macy's Hoyt Street parking facility. Additionally, Macy's formed a joint venture with Fung Retailing to test e-commerce in China. Macy's China Limited is expected to invest approximately $25M in the operations of the JV over the next 18 months, the company said. Further, Alibaba (BABA) entered into an agreement with Macy's China, under which Macy's China will launch an exclusive online flagship store on Tmall Global. In September, Macy's announced plans to close 35-40 underperforming stores in early 2016, and later that month said it will hire 85,000 seasonal associates in 2015. STREET RESEARCH: On November 9, Citi analyst Paul Lejuez lowered his estimates and price target for Macy's Q3 EPS to 47c from 52c, based on expectations for SSS to be down 1%-3%; the analyst also cut his fourth quarter estimate, and lowered the estimate for fiscal year 2015 to $4.45 from $4.51 and fiscal year 2016 to $3.91 from $4.10. The analyst lowered his price target to $48 from $52, as he believes the department store channel had a "tough quarter" and is facing a "challenging" future. Additionally, ITG Research lowered its estimate for Macy's and other department stores following checks that indicate weaker sales trends for October. Previously, Cleveland Research said Macy's experienced "difficult" sales trends throughout the quarter due to continued headwinds from lower traffic and tourism rates, as well as reduced performance in key merchandising segments. OTR Global said Macy's Q3 sell-through was below goals, and downgraded the stock to Negative from Mixed. Macy's was also downgraded Cowen, to Market Perform from Outperform, citing lack of upside comps in Q3, risk to Q4 comps and "aggressive" Street estimates for 2016. PRICE ACTION: Over the last three months, Macy's is down over 30%. Ahead of Wednesday's earnings report, the stock is up about 1.5% to $46.96.
11:06 EDTTGTBattleground: Wayfair pits noted short sellers against Wall Street analysts
Shares of Wayfair (W), which describes itself as "one of the world's largest online destinations for home furnishings and decor," are sharply lower following its report last night of its third quarter results. The company posted a loss that was not as bad as forecast, reported better than expected revenues and guided to higher than expected sales in its upcoming quarter, but its stock is falling as bears and bulls debate its prospects for future profitability. BEARS: Whitney Tilson of Kase Capital Management, who previously accused Lumber Liquidators (LL) of selling wood with dangerous levels of formaldehyde, is making the same claims against Ark Floors, a California importer that has sold its products via Wayfair and through (WMT), reported The New York Times. Jane Carpenter, a spokeswoman for Wayfair, said the company had previously removed all of Ark's laminate from its website and said it had sold just 10 orders for Ark products since December 2014, including one order through, the report noted. According to a letter that Tilson sent to investors last night, published on Seeking Alpha, he stated that Wayfair is currently his largest short position "by far." Tilson noted that Wayfair competes head-to-head versus Amazon (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and he believes the company's chances of "ever reaching breakeven, much less earning a profit, much less earning enough of a profit to justify a $4B market cap are close to zero," he wrote. Tilson predicts the stock will be below $10 within a year. Short-selling blog Citron Research, which has also previously disclosed a short position in Wayfair, linked to a Wall Street Journal article in an October 20 tweet, saying UPS (UPS) "destroys" Wayfair's core model of free shipping on oversized items. The Journal article detailed the shipping giant's plans to charge websites that share "generous shipping discounts with vendors." BULLS: Piper Jaffray analyst Neely Tamminga raised her price target for Wayfair to $73 from $60 this morning, saying the company posted "exceptional" growth in Q3 amid an otherwise "lackluster" retail environment. After the New York Times article citing Wayfair's association with a vendor viewed as at-risk given a short-seller's testing of laminate flooring, Tamminga points out that all laminate flooring accounts for 0.2% of the company's sales. She continues to recommend Wayfair as a top pick for 2015. Analysts at Wells Fargo previously said in September that reports on Wayfair by short sellers included many inaccuracies. For example, Wells said that shorts' view that Wayfair loses money on every transaction relies on a "flawed view" of the company's customer acquisition costs and payback. Shorts compare Wayfair with Overstock (OSTK), but Wayfair is growing much more quickly that the latter company, Wells stated. According to the firm, which kept an Outperform rating on the shares, Wayfair has by far the highest organic revenue growth rate among U.S. consumer companies. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Wayfair fell $5.08, or 11.2%, to $40.50 per share.
10:53 EDTTGTWhitney Tilson sees Wayfair trading below $10 within a year
Noted short-seller Whitney Tilson explained in a Seeking Alpha post why Wayfair (W) is his largest short position. He predicts the stock will be below $10 within a year. The online retailer is trading down $4.74 to $41.10 after reporting Q3 results. A New York Times article on one of Wayfair's vendors producing potentially toxic Chinese-made laminate flooring shows the company's business model is "completely out of control," Tilson argues. In addition, the odds of the online retailer ever reaching breakeven are "close to zero," he contends, citing the competition Wayfair faces from (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM). Reference Link
09:37 EDTTGTActive equity options trading on open
Active equity options trading on open: AAPL TGT VLO BAC FB W RAX V PHM
09:29 EDTMNKDOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN), up 22%... Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), up 10.4%... Canadian Solar (CSIQ), up 8%... Rackspace Hosting (RAX), up 8.9%... Opko Health (OPK), up 6%. ALSO HIGHER: Ocata Therapeutics (OCAT), up 88.3% after being acquired by Astellas Pharma (ALPMY)... Straight Path (STRP), up 8.1% after Nikos Hecht reports 9.2% passive stake in the company... TETRA Technologies (TTI), up 3.1% after being upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: ExOne (XONE), down 23.3%... Galena Biopharma (GALE), down 12.2%... MannKind (MNKD), down 8%... Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), down 8.6%... Wayfair (W), down 1.9%... Gap (GPS), down 5.4%. ALSO LOWER: Magnum Hunter (MHR), down 30.8% after saying that factors raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern... Barrett Business Services (BBSI), down 35.6% after receiving a letter from its independent auditor... Callon Petroleum (CPE), down 4.6% after its 12M share Spot Secondary priced at $8.40... Cyberark (CYBR), down 3.4% after being downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill.
09:17 EDTMDepartment Store estimates lowered at at ITG Research
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09:16 EDTSHLDAmazon says Amazon Echo to be available in 3,000 stores in the U.S.
Amazon (AMZN) announced that Amazon Echo will be available in more than 3,000 stores around the country in time for the holiday shopping season. Customers will be able to visit select locations of The Home Depot (HD), Staples (SPLS), Sears (SHLD), Brookstone, RadioShack (RSHCQ), Fred Meyer, P.C. Richard & Son, as well as several other retailers to experience and purchase Echo.
08:16 EDTICPTIntercept price target lowered to $220 from $265 at Leerink
Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz lowered his price target for Intercept Pharmaceuticals to $220 after revising his capital expenditures estimates higher following the company's Q3 results. The analyst keeps a Market Perform rating on the name.
07:46 EDTAAJacobs wins contract from Alcoa of Australia to sustain capital projects
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) announced its appointment as engineering service provider for Alcoa (AA) of Australia's baseload sustaining capital projects at the Kwinana and Pinjarra alumina refineries in Western Australia. Under the multi-year contract, Jacobs is providing engineering and project management services to these refineries. The program of work aims to leverage Jacobs' High Value Engineering Center in India, providing cost effective design services.
07:15 EDTMMacy's volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
Macy's November weekly call option implied volatility is at 120, November is at 85, December is at 57; compared to its 52-week range of 17 to 54, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results on November 11.
06:28 EDTMNKDIsrael regulator tells funds not to buy MannKind, Calcalist reports
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05:49 EDTMNKDMannKind Q3 results and outlook 'seem grim,' says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Joshua Schimmer says MannKind's Q3 results and outlook "seem grim" given the "disappointing" launch of Afrezza and the company's increasing net-debt position. MannKind's "increasingly desperate" new financing pursuits such as opening up a Tel-Aviv listing are only short-term fixes to a "deeper, potentially critical liquidity concern," Schimmer tells investors in a post-earnings research note. The company's problems will only get worse next year should Sanofi (SNY) return the rights to Afrezza, the analyst adds. He reiterates an Underweight rating on the stock with a $1.50 price target. Schimmer sees "little reason" to own MannKind. The maker of inhaled insulin Afrezza closed yesterday down 24c to $2.63.
05:40 EDTPUBGYPublicis acquires Langland Advertising, Design & Marketing
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05:36 EDTBLDPBallard Power signs strategic cooperation agreement with King Long
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05:29 EDTMStocks with implied volatility above IV index mean; M ODP
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