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February 4, 2010
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| 21:35 EDT |  | NVLS |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" | | Jim Cramer said, "There's money to be made in this panic." He reminded viewers that no one ever made a dime while panicking, and that just because everything is down, it doesn't mean it should be. Cramer explained Thursday's brutal market action by telling viewers that thanks to the proliferation of global futures markets and ETFs, stocks are now lumped into baskets, and often trade together even though they shouldn't. He said long gone are the days of fundamental securities analysis, which valued companies individually based on their own merits. Instead, today's markets simply trade the S&P500 ETF, and every stock in the average takes the hit. Cramer also explained that this trend is exasperated by large hedge funds, which trade ETFs and futures for the liquidity they offer. He told viewers to remain vigilant and look for bargains. Cramer said companies like Altria (MO), Visa (V) and Cisco (CSCO) didn't deserve the carnage they received Thursday, and that makes them cheap once the panic has passed. RECOVERY PLAY: Investors who owned shares of Botox maker Allergan (AGN) actually made money Thursday, Cramer said. He spoke with chairman and CEO David Pyott. Pyott said that Allergan has weathered the storm very well, thanks in part to strong sales in its eye care business, which accounts for 47% of sales. He said the company has also seen a 18% increase in its dermal filler products. Pyott said investors need to realize the value of the eye care segment and its new product Latisse. He says Allergan's competition in Botox only has low-double-digit market share and he is not concerned. Cramer called Allergan the best medical aesthetics company in the business and said the company is a great recovery play. Next, Cramer interviewed Richard Hill, chairman and CEO of semiconductor equipment maker Novellus (NVLS), a company at the heart of a new boom in technology. Hill said no factory can make chips without the equipment that they provide. He painted a very bullish picture for his industry, saying that he hasn't seen opportunities this good since the 1990s. Today, Hil said, the market drivers are emerging markets, anti-terrorism and gadget loving consumers. Hill dismissed arguments that a slowdown in China will hamper growth. After reporting a 6c a share earnings beat and offering bullish guidance, Cramer said Novellus is an integral part of his Mobile Internet Tsunami and he'd be a buyer. Then, Cramer sat down with Larry O'Donnell, president and CEO of Waste Management (WM). The comapny's natural decomposition process at 1100 of its landfills, is now powering over 400,000 homes in the U.S. The company also has over 400 collection trucks that are running on clean burning natural gas. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) MCD; C; PG; WN. (Bearish) BKC; MCRS; AIB; CPB; FTR. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
| | 06:48 EDT |  | NVLS |
| | 06:46 EDT | | NVLS |
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February 3, 2010
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| 16:20 EDT | | NVLS |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Novellus reports Q4 adjusted EPS 39c vs. consensus of 33c | | Reports Q4 revenue $244.2M vs. consensus of $237.09M. :theflyonthewall.com |
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February 2, 2010
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| 14:49 EDT | | NVLS |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Earnings Preview: Novellus better positioned to outperform in 2010 | | Novellus Systems (NVLS) is expected to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, February 3, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET. The consensus estimate is 33c for EPS and $237.09M for revenue, according to First Call. On Nov. 19, Novellus narrowed to the upside its revenue and EPS outlook for Q4, citing improvements in business conditions. The company forecast revenue of $225M-$245M and EPS of 25c-40c. On that guidance conference call, CEO Rick Hill told analysts, "In the last four weeks since our Q3 earnings call there is further evidence that business conditions have improved... The semiconductor market continues to experience a much stronger rebound than was initially forecast." Hill also noted that the chip market recovery "has been achieved with very little enterprise spending to date and driven by sales of PCs, smartphones and inventory restocking, coupled with great improved memory prices in both DRAM and NAND." Goldman expects Novellus to report Q4 results between the mid-point and the high end of its revised guidance for orders to increase 40% to 55% quarter-over-quarter. The firm notes that order strength during Q4 was likely driven by foundries, mainly Taiwan Semi (TSM) and Samsung, given Novellus’ relatively lower exposure to Taiwan DRAM versus peers. Goldman continues to expect order trends to remain robust through 2010, but believe that momentum could moderate somewhat in Q1 on a sequential basis. As a result, Goldman believes that management is likely to guide orders flat to up 15% quarter-over-quarter, consistent with recent guidance by peers. Goldman maintains a Sell rating on Novellus shares, as while order trends remain favorable, it believes valuation is rich at 19X normalized EPS. :theflyonthewall.com |
| | 14:39 EDT |  | NVLS |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Novellus: Earnings release technical preview, float-skew, extreme gap risk | | BULLISH CASE: On better than expected news/outlook the stock could trade to the upper limit of the bearish price channel at $22.01. On a bullish breakout above the price channel the following resistance levels would become upside objectives: $22.50, $22.86, $23.23, $23.58, $24.03, $24.40, $24.92, $25.37, $25.80. BEARISH CASE: On worse than expected news/outlook the stock could trade to the lower limit of the price channel at $20.62. On a bearish breakdown below the price channel the following support levels would become downside objectives: $20, $19.62, $19.33, $18.87, $18.57, $18.25, $17.96, $17.60, $17.29, $16.90, $16.65, $16.32, $16.06. NOTE: There is a moderate short-base in terms of days to cover at 3, but a large 6.2% of the float is short. Traders are positioned for negative news. Reactions on a surprise, especially a positive one given the float-skew, have a high probability of being extreme in duration and price. Extreme gap risk. :theflyonthewall.com |
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January 26, 2010
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| 07:31 EDT |  | NVLS |
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