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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 14, 2015
14:15 EDTA couple of dovish Fedspeakers crop up next week
A couple of dovish Fedspeakers crop up next week though just how relevant their remarks will be for the markets remains to be seen. First up is Minneapolis uber-dove Kocherlakota who will be discussing "Macroeconomic Policy and Price Measurment Issues in a Low Inflation Environment" after the close from 20:20 ET on Wednesday (August 19). Next up is SF Fed dove Willams, who will release a prepared text before the Bank Indonesia-BIS conference in Jakarta from 2:45 ET Thursday (August 20).
14:06 EDTMarket drifts in narrow range
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14:05 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The Empire State kicks off the August producer sentiment data on Monday and should reveal a slight increase to 4.0 (median X.X) from 3.9 in July and -2.0 in June. Producer sentiment remained firm in July, with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 53 from June.
13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in 5s
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning in 5s included the sale of 2k in October 122 calls and sale of 1k in November 119 straddles (volatility). September 5s are 2-ticks lower near 119-222, relative to a 119-26 to 119-162 session range.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
13:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude shrugged off
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13:05 EDTAction Economics U.S. survey results
Action Economics U.S. survey results: It has been another wild week in the markets that has only further clouded the outlook on Fed rate liftoff. While the Survey medians still points to a 25 bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, and another 25 bps in December, action is far from a done deal. More than a handful of forecasters believe the Fed will hold off next month, with some seeing no tightening at all this year. Next week's data will not tip the Fed's hand either, with CPI expected to post gains of 0.2% for the headline and core, though they are perhaps outdated due to the plunge in commodities. Housing starts and existing home sales should be little changed. View the survey results.
12:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: mainly bullish positioning
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11:20 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Today's data are consistent with a September liftoff,
Fed Policy Outlook: Today's data are consistent with a September liftoff, though it remains a close call whether the recent plunge in commodity prices, dollar strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlooks for China and Greece will prompt a delay in the first expected quarter-point hike from the Fed. Both industrial production and PPI beat estimates, but the July output pop was due to a temporary auto lift that will be unwound, while firm core PPI prices in July will be followed by weak headline price data in August and September given falling commodity prices. The FOMC will take all these various factors into account as they mull their policy decision, as recent domestic growth data have generally supported an early move, while global growth and commodity weakness has suggested a delay. Analysts assume that the boost in reported Q2 GDP growth to 2.5% from 2.3% and another firm round of August jobs data will tilt the Fed's hand toward a September tightening.
11:00 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:59 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:26 EDTDeutsche Bank analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) Market and the trading range on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on August 14 at 11 am.
10:20 EDTThe August Michigan sentiment downtick to 92.9
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar headed a touch lower
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
Treasury Action: yields steadied below highs following the dip in U. Michigan sentiment, which contrasted the firmer rounds of industrial production and PPI. The T-note yield skied from 2.16% to session highs of 2.21% before easing back to 2.20% again. Stocks are above earlier lows, though recently have fallen for 10 out of 12 Fridays. The 2.25% psych area may hold for now, unless equities defy the odds and their the August downdraft.
10:10 EDTU.S. August consumer sentiment fell to 92.9 in the preliminary report
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09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at 1.3087
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09:45 EDTThe hefty 0.6% U.S. industrial production rise
The hefty 0.6% U.S. industrial production rise reflected a 15.3% vehicle assembly rate pop to a cycle-high 13.6 M clip that can be attributed to a temporary boost from this year's limited auto retooling, alongside a downward June revision that trimmed the good news in the report. The vehicle sector surge allowed a big 0.8% manufacturing rise, and alongside a 0.2% mining sector rise but a weather-led 1.0% July utility output drop. Analysts now expect a 3% Q3 growth rate for industrial production, after contraction rates of 2.0% (was 1.7%) in Q2 and 0.2% in Q1 that left the worst two factory sector quarters of the expansion. Before the petro-sector recession and associated factory weakness of 2015, analysts saw gains in every quarter of the expansion that left a factory sector outperformance of GDP. Industrial production growth is slowing to an estimated 1.8% growth pace in 2015 that undershoots our 2.5% 2015 GDP estimate, following overshoots that left respective growth rates of 3.7% versus 2.4% in 2014, 1.9% versus 1.5% in 2013, and 2.8% versus 2.2% in 2012.
09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:31 EDTFutures action leads to slightly lower open
Stock futures drifted during the pre-market trading session but unfortunately their direction was lower. The futures action led to a modestly lower open for the broader market as it tries to get back to its winning ways. The early economic numbers were positive as producer prices were generally in line with expectations, and industrial production rose 0.6% in July versus expectations of an increase of 0.3%. The next economic data point scheduled to be released is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading, which is due out at 10:00 am ET.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their ascent
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