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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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July 31, 2015
09:10 EDTThe lean 0.2% Q2 U.S. ECI rise marked a new cycle-low gain
The lean 0.2% Q2 U.S. ECI rise marked a new cycle-low gain that sharply diminished the cyclical uptrend in labor cost growth from late-2009 recession-lows. The tiny rise follows 0.5%-0.7% gains over the prior four quarters that outpaced the 0.4%-0.5% ECI gains in each of the nine quarters ending back in Q4 of 2013. Recent gains were unrevised, at 0.7% in Q1, 0.5% in Q4, 0.7% in Q2 and Q3, and a prior cycle-low 0.3% in Q1 of last year. ECI weakness in Q2 was skewed toward benefits but was evident in both the wage and benefit components. The cycle-low 0.2% wage gain sharply curtailed the steep four-quarter climb in wage growth through Q1 that seemed at odds with the assumption of continued labor market slack, while a tiny 0.1% cycle-low Q2 benefit cost rise reversed the upward tilt that appeared to be emerging after the 1.1% spike in Q2 of last year. Benefit costs climbed sharply back in 2010-11, but then moderated over the 2012-2013 period, and the upward tilt since then is now quite modest.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities recovered some lost ground
U.S. equities recovered some lost ground despite a lackluster session overnight on global bourses amid fresh declines in commodity prices and oil, with mostly second-tier data on tap. But Q2 ECI was very muted on all counts and alone certainly won't provoke the Fed into any rushed move on rates, which allowed stocks to bubble back up from negative territory. Ahead of the opening bell the Dow is still 12-points lower, but S&P is up 2-points and NASDAQ is 6-points higher. This followed a muted session in Asia, with China's Shenzhen fractionally higher, the Shanghai Comp 1.13% lower and the Nikkei 225 up 0.3%, while over in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.2% lower and the German DAX is flat. In earnings news, Exxon posted its lowest profit since 2009 as net income was cut in half to $4.19 B from $8.78 B in a big miss, while CEO Tillerson predicted that oversupply and depressed prices will remain in place for a couple more years. Chevron missed by a big margin as well, as did LinkedIn after costs relating to its merger, falling 6%. Expedia ralled 8% after a beat.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD knee-jerked higher
FX Action: USD-CAD knee-jerked higher on the Canada GDP miss, though with the market generally seen as well long going into the data, profit taking immediately stepped in. The pairing bounced to 1.3099 highs from 1.3045, before falling to 1.2995 lows. The rebound in oil and gold prices after the weaker U.S. ECI data, and the subsequent fall in the greenback more broadly, has also been CAD positive.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a dive on headline ECI
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:43 EDTFutures still suggest flat open for market
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08:40 EDTU.S. ECI rose only 0.2% in Q2
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08:31 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI data reported
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08:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD firmed up over 1.3060
FX Action: USD-CAD firmed up over 1.3060 into the open, supported by another session of commodity weakness overnight. WTI crude fell back under $47.50, as gold prices approach the 5-plus year lows seen last week, basing at $1.070.30. Copper prices meanwhile, are within a hair of their six-year low, trading under $2.36/lb. The 8:30 EDT release of Canada May GDP data has brought some USD-CAD buying to bear as well, with many looking for a sub-forecast outcome. Further growth deterioration will increase the odds of another BoC rate cut.
08:10 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude extended losses
Energy Action: NYMEX crude extended losses overnight, falling to $47.42 lows, and down from highs of $49.46 posted on Thursday. Further strength in the dollar, along with comments from OPEC's secretary general, who according to Reuters, implied no OPEC production cuts were coming anytime soon, weighed on prices. A break of Wednesday's low of $47.39 will bring Tuesday's four-month base of $46.68 back into focus. RBOB gasoline futures remain neat their trend lows at $1.77/gallon, as natural gas futures retreat from near $2.90/M BTU to $2.76, as recently hot U.S. temperatures are expected to abate.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed, though better buying was generally reported. Trading volume was on the strong side too. The 10-year popped up to 2.28% as European sovereigns erased earlier gains after the core CPI rate rose to 1.0% y/y. Yields have dipped from their highs however amid month-end demand. A heavy slate of Japanese data was mostly disappointing. In the U.S., earnings will remain important with Chevron, Exxon Mobile, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, Carrefour, Royal Caribbean, and Seagate on tap. Data includes Q2 ECI, the final July consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan survey, and the Chicago Fed PMI. The market will be looking ahead to next week's calendar that includes the key nonfarm payroll report, auto sales, manufacturing and services PMIs, income, consumption, and trade.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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06:59 EDTFutures flat as July draws to a close
Stock futures are mixed and trading near fair value as the market closes out a volatile month of trading. Investors will be poring over the multitude of earnings reports and will also receive economic data that includes the employment cost index, the Chicago purchasing managerís report, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading.
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 31
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05:48 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
02:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately softer
FX Update: The dollar has traded moderately softer, though the main pairings have remained well within the respective ranges of yesterday. EUR-USD lifted to a high of 1.0962, and USD-JPY dipped to a low of 123.90. An unexpected German retail sales number, which dove 2.3 % in June versus the Reuters median for 0.3% growth, helped put a cap on the euro. BoJ sources cited by Reuters, meanwhile, said that a weak yen is beneficial for the economy, and that the central bank is happy with a declining currency, so long as the pace remains moderate. NZD-USD ebbed, although the pair remained above its low from yesterday, on ANZ business confidence data, which dove to -15.3 from -2.3, a six-year low.
July 30, 2015
21:45 EDTJapan's CPI report showed very modest June core growth
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21:35 EDTTaiwan's GDP grew just 0.6% y/y in Q2
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21:31 EDTWeek of 8/3 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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