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News Breaks
February 20, 2013
14:04 EDTFed minutes show several members ready to vary pace of bond buying
News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 13, 2015
10:40 EDTBen the Blogger is back: Bernanke discusses why rates are so low
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded briefly over $53/bbl,
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09:38 EDTMarket looking to extend weekly winning streak
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09:35 EDTChain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound:
Chain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound: Chain store sales slowed in March to signal downside risk to U.S. retail sales, which should otherwise receive a March lift from gains in gasoline, vehicles, and building materials alongside high confidence levels. Analysts expect March gains of 0.6% for the headline and 0.4% ex-autos after three straight months of sales declines. Gasoline prices rose 5% in March, vehicle sales rebounded to a 17.1 M pace from 16.2 M, and building materials have room to reverse a 2.3% February plunge, though analysts have a continued headwind from bad weather and delayed refund distributions.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe
Treasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe overnight thanks to gains in German Bunds. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.94% after testing 1.98% earlier on spillover from the drop in the 10-year Bund to 0.148%, which would be a new closing nadir. Consolidation is the name of the game today ahead of key data on retail sales and inflation. Stronger than expected sales and price figures should keep yields biased higher, especially after light domestic demand for last week's auctions. The disappointing March jobs report is now in the rearview mirror with forecasts for a Q2 rebound in growth now the story, and hence supporting risk of Fed rate liftoff by September.
09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are marginally lower
U.S. equities are marginally lower after a mixed performance in Asia and Europe to start the week. The Dow is 41-points lower, S&P fell 5-points and NASDAQ is off 2-points ahead of the opening bell. This followed more gains in China with the Shanghai +2.1% and HK Hang Seng +2.7% higher amid fewer trading restrictions (despite a collapse in China's trade surplus), though Japan's Nikkei fell 0.01%. Europe is mixed, but the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.1% higher even after reports that Greece's Tsipras is considering new elections if talks fail - Athens at +1.0% strangely appears to like that idea. Qualcomm is nearly 5% higher after reports of activist investors eying a spinoff of the firm's chip unit. Apple gained marginally on solid pre-orders for their watch. Financial sector earnings are on tap later in the week from the likes of JPM, BofA, Schwab, AMEX, Blackrock, Citi and Goldman, which will all be closely considered. The Treasury budget was rolled over from last week and will be considered late in the session.
08:25 EDTFormer Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient
Former Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient as it mulls a rate increase, since inflation won't return to its 2% target until 2017, according to an Op-Ed in the WSJ. He cited core inflation ranging from 1.3-1.7% and headline inflation near zero, only a slight increase in wages and long term unemployed as reasons for "patience" to remain a working concept even after it was banished from the statement. Blinder also cites the Q1 "speed bump" in growth and dollar appreciation, along with the lack of a feared "bubble" from extended ZIRP. Thus, "Monetary policy will eventually begin to normalize. But not in June, and maybe not in September. Timing, they say, is everything. This is a time for patience," said the Princeton professor.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker after European sovereigns gave up earlier gains. The 10-year yield has climbed several basis points to 1.975%. Trading volume has been strong to open the week. Equities are mixed amid ongoing worries over a Greek accident. Chinese trade data was on the disappointing side, though the Shanghai index climbed on hopes of more stimulus. This will be a busy week for the U.S. calendar with a number key indicators on tap, along with the Beige Book and a plethora of Fedspeak, and as earnings announcements pick up steam. Today's slate is thin, though with just the March Treasury budget, which was delayed from Friday due to a technical glitch.
07:45 EDTSF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals
SF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals the case for keeping rates low for longer weakens, said the dovish voter late Sunday. Williams has been leaning toward a timely hike the past few months as the economy has recovered and he is weighing moving early at a gradual pace rather than acting later, more aggressively. Williams did say that "right now" the U.S. economy still needs accommodative policy, but he forecasts full employment in 6-12 months, and sees risk receding of a return to zero rates as the economy improves. "More importantly, analysts are really thinking about a path, analysts are talking about moving interest rates from zero to a normal level over several years. So even if the economy got some bad shocks, really you are probably just talking about flattening that path out a bit, or maybe raising rates more slowly," he said. To drive his point home, he apparently brandished a T-shirt declaring: "Monetary policy - It's data dependent."
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTFutures quiet ahead of data-filled week
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07:19 EDTNYSSA to hold a forum
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07:14 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTNat'l Foundation for Infectious Diseases to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar put in another bout of outperformance
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06:38 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 13
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06:35 EDTChina's exports sank 15% in March, Reuters reports
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05:58 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
03:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy
FX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy after sinking from a 1.1035 peak last Monday to a 1.0567 low on Friday, which was a big move. Resistance is marked at 1.0683 and 1.0700, and the 20-day moving average is at 1.0806. USD-JPY recouped most of Friday's losses in making a peak of 120.50 before settling around 120.35. Friday's low at 120.05 and the 20-day moving average at 119.97 mark key near-term support levels, below which would swing recent lows near 119.50 and the 50-day moving average at 119.71 into scope. Cable logged a fresh low at 1.4566, and the pound also saw losses against the euro and yen. Sterling's underperformance is reflective of the market starting to discount risks posed by the May-7 general election in the UK. AUD-USD dropped quite sharply, to a one-week low at 0.7580, down one big figure from the intraday high. The move was triggered by a big miss in China trade data, with exports down 15% in March, which sparked speculation of a sub-7.0% outcome in Wednesday's GDP data..
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