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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 26, 2015
22:40 EDTMay Treasury Refunding Announcement to be released at 08:30
April 25, 2015
17:59 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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17:59 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
March Construction Spending will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
17:59 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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17:59 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
April Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 50.0
17:59 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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17:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
March Personal Income and Outlays will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.2% for the month
17:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the quarter
17:59 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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17:59 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
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17:59 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is [2]
April 24, 2015
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields retraced this week's rise, pulling back to mid-week levels as the dollar declined and tech stocks forged higher. Gold extended its losses as well to session lows of $1,176 (lowest in over a month) and WTI eased 1.2% lower. This was a fairly resilient move on the behalf of U.S. assets, considering the lack of clarity on the economy and muddle on Greece heading into the weekend. The FOMC meeting will not have a press conference next week and shouldn't reveal much either, betrayed by Q1 GDP, while heavy sovereign supply looms.
14:36 EDTEuro zone says no more aid for Greece until reforms outlined, Reuters says
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14:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook: no change is expected from the FOMC
Fed Policy Outlook: no change is expected from the FOMC. The focus will be on the statement and the nuances in the forward guidance language, but analysts doubt there will be any clarity on rate liftoff. However, it will be very interesting to see what the Fed says in place of the statement from March that "the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting." They probably won't be so forthcoming about the June meeting especially since they stress the policy path is data dependent. Nevertheless, assuming policymakers acknowledge yet further slowing in growth after saying in March that "growth had moderated somewhat," the markets should infer that rate liftoff in June is highly unlikely. Look for the Fed to also suggest, however, that some of the slowing is a function of transitory factors and that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Also, there could be some sign of optimism over rising inflation after the March CPI as well. All this will leave the door open for a move on rates some time this year.
14:05 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:39 EDTFitch Ratings to hold a teleconference
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13:30 EDTU.S. daily Treasury receipts
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11:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish call selling
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11:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue retrace this week's rise
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 119 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 119 handle, after posting four consecutive higher daily highs this week, culminating in an eight session peak of 120.09. Softer U.S. yields have weighed some, though with no further BoJ stimulus expected until Q4, yen bears appear to be giving up on help from the central bank. In addition, the dollar has lost some of its shine of late, as U.S. data disappoints, and as prospects for a Fed rate hike are pushed further and further out. The 118.50-20 region is likely to provide USD-JPY support for now, though a break of 119 should open the door for a move to the 116 handle.
10:34 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:32 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analysts provide on update on healthcare trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 24 at 10:30 am.
10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied over 1.2160
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09:50 EDTNASDAQ is extending gains
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. durables report
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended lower
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09:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning was in force to start the session, though the weak ex-transport durables print has revived the rate complex a bit. Among the deals was a 5k purchase of Short May 88 puts and 5k in Green June 80 puts. The December 2015 contract is a tick higher at 99.405, while the deferreds are 1-1.5 ticks firmer out the curve.
08:46 EDTFutures remain quiet following durable goods report
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08:45 EDTU.S. advance durable goods orders rebounded 4.0% in March
U.S. advance durable goods orders rebounded 4.0% in March, much stronger than expected, but that belies weakness in many key components. February's 1.4% decline was not revised, but January's 2.0% jump recorded previously was nudged to 1.9%. Transportation orders remain choppy, contributing to the sawtooth pattern in durables. They surged 13.5% following a 1.8% drop previously (revised from -3.5%), with January up 8.9% (revised from 8.8%). Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.2%, extending the string of monthly declines to 6 straight. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.5% and has posted declines since last September. Durable shipments were up 1.1% after sliding 0.2% lower in February. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft slid 0.4% after a 0.1% rebound in February (revised from 0.2%). Inventories increased 0.1% with monthly gains extending back to May 2013. The inventory-shipment ratio was 1.67 from 1.69.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields swung on firm durables reading
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially rallied
FX Action: The dollar initially rallied on the strong headline durables print, though quickly retreated again, as the ex-transport component disappointed. EUR-USD dipped to 1.0815 from near 1.0850, before popping back to near 1.0870, as USD-JPY rallied to 119.55 from 119.40, and has subsequently dropped back to 119.30. Equity futures remain in positive territory, as yields remain on a softer footing.
08:30 EDTU.S. tech stocks are on the rise again
U.S. tech stocks are on the rise again heading into the durables report after European stocks wrestled with their post Greek-Riga meeting disappointment following a firm reading on German Ifo. The Euro Stoxx 50 is only 0.25% higher and Athens is 2% higher. Solid earnings results for Google, Amazon and Microsoft also kept a bid in the tech sector after yesterday's record closing run, leaving intraday highs on the NASDAQ at 5,132.52 within striking distance. Apple also estimated that it expects to ship 20 M watches this year, above forecasts. The Dow is 11-points firmer, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 28-points higher. The rupture of the Comcast Time Warner Cable deal announced late yesterday continues to reverberate. But Google managed rising costs and the dollar well as advertising revenues jumped, driving its shares nearly 4% higher, while a Microsoft beat sent its shares 3.6% firmer. Post-earnings gains on Starbucks and Juniper Networks also featured. On the flipside were shortfalls by Biogen, Xerox, Altera and Pandora.
08:20 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude stayed away from Thursday's $58.36 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude stayed away from Thursday's $58.36 highs, and ranged between $57.31 and $57.93 overnight. Continued Saudi Arabia airstrikes in Yemen were behind yesterday's rally, though reports that an Iranian ship convoy, on its way to Yemen has turned back, has cooled market fears to a degree. RBOB gasoline futures extended Thursday's strong gains, peaking over $2.01/gallon, and at levels last seen in November. As the North American heating season draws to an end, natural gas futures continue to meander near the bottom of recent ranges, currently trading at $2.55/M BTU.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world, but small gains are evident in longer dated Treasuries, Bunds, and JGBs on safe haven flows amid Greek worries. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.95% in lackluster trading after testsing 1.97%. German Bunds are marginally firmer and erased earlier losses with the yield at 0.14% versus a 0.179% high. And the JGB closed over 2 bps lower at 0.279%. Reportedly Greece was "hammered" at the Riga meeting with the Eurogroup postponing a decision until the May meeting. Meanwhile, equities are higher after Germany's Ifo index surprised to the high side and added to the bullish mood after the Nasdaq hit new record highs yesterday. Today's March durable goods data will be of interest, but its volatile nature may limit market response. The Markit PMI services data are also due, along with the April Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Earnings reports from American Airlines, AstraZeneca, McClatachy, Siemens, and Steven Madden will round out a very busy week.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD rallied to 1.0900
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07:09 EDTFutures quiet ahead of day’s trading
Futures are quiet as investors pore over the latest round of earnings reports. Overseas, German business confidence rose for the sixth straight month and the Greek saga continued as the country’s Prime Minister took his appeal directly to Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. Both leaders sounded somewhat optimistic after the meeting. However, EU officials cautioned that significant differences on several issues remain between Athens and its creditors.Today U.S. investors will be watching the durable goods orders report and the Baker Hughes rig count data, in addition to a new round of earnings reports.
07:01 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a luncheon meeting
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD U-turned lower from a 17-day high on Greece news
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06:35 EDTMerkel says Greece must be prevented from running out of cash, Reuters says
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06:09 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 24
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05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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04:05 EDTWeek of 5/6 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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04:04 EDTWeek of 4/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD settled around 1.0800
FX Update: EUR-USD settled around 1.0800 after pushing to a peak at 1.0845 on Thursday, which fell 3 pips short of last Friday's peak. Encouraging talk from Greek officials regarding prospects for a deal by the end of April helped give the euro a lift yesterday, but this optimism isn't being shared by creditors. Focus today will be on the Eurogroup meeting, though no one is expecting any breakthrough in negotiations. USD-JPY has sunk back to the mid-119s after failing to sustain gains above 120.00 following four consecutive days of moderately higher highs. The dollar is now trading back below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. Support is marked at 119.30-34, which encompasses the prevailing position of the 200-day moving average Wednesday's low. AUD-USD edged out a two-day high at 0.7796 and AUD-NZD a one-month high despite the latest Bloomberg survey finding that 23 of 26 expect the RBA to cut rates May-5. The OIS market is also pricing in 54% odds of a 25bp cut. The AUD's yield advantage has nonetheless risen to new highs around 59 bp at the 10-year U.S. versus Australian debt maturity.
April 23, 2015
16:46 EDTWeek of 5/1 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:46 EDTWeek of 5/3 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
16:46 EDTWeek of 5/2 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:20 EDTComcast to abandon deal with Time Warner Cable
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market recovered some composure on Thursday even as stocks powered ahead led by NASDAQ clearing its all-time closing high thanks to a string of bad economic news that may keep the Fed at bay. One trigger appeared to be the 11.4% plunge in new home sales, while Markit flash PMI sank following rounds of weaker EMU and UK data. Janus' Gross continued to double-down on his short-Bund strategy, while a massive AT&T debt launch sparked some hedge lock unwinding.
14:52 EDTStocks near session highs in afternoon trading
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14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed to eek out an eight session high of 120.09
FX Action: USD-JPY managed to eek out an eight session high of 120.09, though continued Japanese exporter offers would not let the pairing climb further. From the early session peak, the pairing then turned south, following the dollar's broadly weaker backdrop. The bleeding was stopped at 119.48 lows, just over the Wednesday base, and just under the 20-day moving average. USD-JPY remains in range trade mode overall, largely maintaining a 118.50 to 120.50 band over the past six weeks or so.
13:50 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: March durable goods data is out Friday and should reveal a 1.5% (median 0.8%) increase for orders. Shipments are expcted to grow by 0.5% with inventories up 0.3%. Data in-line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.69 for a second month. There is some downside risk to the release from the -0.6% decline in industrial production for the month and the drop in Boeing orders which fell to 39 from 72 in February.
13:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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13:45 EDTTreasury Action: AT&T $17.5 B debt launch
Treasury Action: AT&T $17.5 B debt launch is said to be behind the uptick in prices at the long-end, according to sources, presumably as any rate locks are being unwound.
13:35 EDTCommodity Action: RBOB gasoline futures are up 13 cents
Commodity Action: RBOB gasoline futures are up 13 cents from Wednesday's lows, rallying to five-month highs, and trading over the $2.00/gallon mark for the first time since the beginning of December. The larger than expected drop in gasoline inventory, reported yesterday by the EIA started the steep rally, with buying stepping up on the break of the $1.9550 one-week high posted on Monday. NYMEX crude meanwhile, is up nearly $2/bbl trading over $58.00.
13:30 EDTFund manager says Nav Sarao a hero, not goat
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13:15 EDTTreasury $18 B 5-year TIPS sale was solid
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12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year TIPS preview: the auction is expected to be well covered
Treasury 5-year TIPS preview: the auction is expected to be well covered. However, one stumbling block is a relatively rich valuation. The wi trades at -0.34%, down 5 bps on the day. And a stop there would be the lowest since the -0.375% award rate from December 2013 (but it was at a record low of -1.496% at the December 2012 auction). The $18 B new issue amount is also above the $16 B reopen volume, which could make the bid cover look a little soft. Nevertheless, a variety of factors support today's sale, including the acceleration in core CPI this year, including the increase to a 1.8% y/y rate in March. Oil prices have been on the rise since mid-March to add to the uptick in inflation outlooks. There's also a large month-end extension that could see some front running today. The indirect bid should remain very strong. The December 5-year TIPS was awarded at 0.395% and garnered a 2.37 cover and a 64.8% indirect bid.
12:40 EDTDouble-top? NASDAQ cleared record closing highs
Double-top? NASDAQ cleared record closing highs of 5,048.62 set all the way back on March 10, 2000 - about 15-year ago. The comp is about 0.3% higher near 5,050. The all-time intraday high is 5,132.52, however, which is still a few points away.
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are rebounding
Treasury Action: Treasuries are rebounding, even as gains in European sovereigns fade. The 10-year Treasury yield neared the 2.0% mark again, and that has attracted real money demand, which has helped knock the rate back down to 1.96%. Slowing in manufacturing PMI data in the U.S. and Europe, and further contraction in China's index, were more evidence of the slowdown in growth, and suggest Q2 is still suffering from the various factors that weakened Q1, including the stronger dollar, erosion in oil/mining industries, and the ports strike. Clearly the FOMC will be cognizant of these elements as they meet next week. No policy changes expected, but the markets will focus on the statement for any new indications of the Committee's concerns over their growth and inflation outlooks. Treasuries should remain cautious into the FOMC, while also taking into account the likely better than $200 B in bill and coupon auctions next week. Meanwhile, the upcoming $18 B 5-year TIPS sale should be well subscribed.
12:00 EDTEurozone Investment Weakness Remains:
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11:40 EDTJanus' Gross is doubling down on his short-Bund
Janus' Gross is doubling down on his short-Bund trade recommendation, Tweeting: "Bunds are a great short but so is Bund volatility - a great short. Skin the cat in 2 ways." Note, earlier in the week he had Tweeted: "German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE". Bund yields hit a record low of 0.049% on last Friday and have since backed up to a high of 0.173% today before pulling back to 0.161%. Perhaps someone is taking Bill's Bund spoof literally this week and jamming a few offers through.
11:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more bearish positioning
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11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 12:45
11:10 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 13:30
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11:10 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayan Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 20:00
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11:10 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 12:25
11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 15:10
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11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 15:25
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11:10 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:30
11:10 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 08:30
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11:10 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828WZ9
11:10 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:10 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828K41
11:10 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings
Treasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings, along with a $15 B 2-year FRN for sale next week. These include a $26 B 2-year auction (Monday), a $35 B 5-year (Tuesday), and a $29 B 7-year (Wednesday). Also detailed was a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale (Monday) and a $25 B 52-week bill (Tuesday). The heavy calendar could be problematic for the Treasury market as the auctions mostly precede the FOMC announcement. Additionally, current yields are a bit richer than they were at the March auctions.
11:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning on bonds
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11:00 EDTTreasury Supply: a $90 B package of coupon offerings
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10:40 EDTThe 11.4% U.S. new home sales drop
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded through 1.2200
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 17
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: trading remains choppy into the weekend,
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10:18 EDTPresident Obama to make a statement
President Obama makes a statement from the White House on April 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields tipped slightly lower
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped
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10:11 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales dropped 11.4% to 481k in March
U.S. new home sales dropped 11.4% to 481k in March, from an upwardly revised 543k in February (was 539k), with January's 500k now at 514k. That's weaker than expected. Regionally, only the Midwest increased. The month's supply of homes climbed to 5.3 from 4.6 (revised from 4.7), and is the highest since November's 5.7. The median sales price fell 1.5% to $277,400 from a revised $281,600 (was $275,500). That's down 1.7% y/y, however, after a 4.9% y/y gain in February.
10:00 EDTU.S. new home sales preview:
U.S. new home sales preview: new home sales are expected to decrease -7.2% to a 500k unit pace in March (510k median) from 539k in February. Forecast risk is downward, given the drop in March NAHB to 52 from 55, though existing home sales surged 6.1% yesterday to a 5.19 M pace. preview.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI fell 1.5 points to 54.2 in April
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
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09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 45.4
09:20 EDTU.S. stock index futures have been pointing lower
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: there wasn't much reaction to the claims data
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims uptick to 295k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased slightly
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08:44 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims inched up 1k to 295k in the week ended April 18
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08:36 EDTFutures remain lower following jobless claims data
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little firmer
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:37 EDTHouse Committee on Science, Space & Technology to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Banning Proven Technologies on Possibilities Instead of Probabilities" on April 23 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFutures lower on Greece, European recovery concerns
Stock futures are lower in early trading as investors react to concerns about the Greek debt crisis, weaker economic data out of Europe, and unimpressive corporate earnings. Today U.S. investors will examine weekly jobless claims data which is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET.
07:23 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Healthcare holds a hearing entitled, "Fresh Look at the Impact of the Medical Device Tax on Jobs, Innovation and Patients" on April 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:15 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:13 EDTFDA to hold a forum
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07:04 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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06:43 EDTPreliminary China PMI missed expectations, Reuters says
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06:35 EDTEuro zone PMI missed expectations in April, NY Times says
Markit's purchasing managers' index for the euro zone came in at 53.5 in April, down from 54.0 in March, according to The New York Times. Economists had expected the reading to rise slightly in April compared with March, the newspaper noted, but added that the April reading was still close to an 11 month high. Reference Link
05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 23
Globex S&P futures are recently down 3.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.27%, DAX down 0.78%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $56.07, natural gas down 0.36%, gold at $1187 an ounce, copper down 0.22%.
05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has drifted lower
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02:25 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD trading has been somewhat erratic
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01:45 EDTBoJ boss Kuroda said that a QQE exit is not being considered
BoJ boss Kuroda said that a QQE exit is not being considered, though the technical details of an exit are. He stressed that policymakers would not attempt to get results by surprising markets. On CPI, he stuck to the boilerplate is saying that he expects inflation to pick up in the second half of the financial year, though the 2% target may not be achieved until early in the next financial year.
April 22, 2015
22:20 EDTChina's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April
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21:38 EDTApril Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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17:13 EDTWeek of 5/1 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:31 EDTDeutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETFþ volatility elevated
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:59 EDTAverages at session highs in late day trading
The averages are in positive territory and have stretched their gains to session highs. The move is broad based, with the S&P 500 now up about 0.5%. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4, while up volume is ahead of down volume by an even greater margin. Crude oil prices are lower and gold, which has been under pressure all day, is down 1.4%.
14:45 EDTTreasury Action: debt managers sell $18 B in 5-year TIPS Thursday
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13:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures toppled lower
Euro$ interest rate futures toppled lower thanks to the rout on the rate complex, sped by the uptick in existing homes sales and spillover selling from European Bunds and Gilts. The December 2015 contract is 2-ticks lower at 99.365 (implied 0.635%), while the deferreds are 2-7 ticks lower further out the curve. Among recent option deals was a bearish purchase of 5k in Green July 75/77/80 put butterflies and 4k purchase of Short December 85 puts.
13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has put in its third consecutive higher daily high,
FX Action: USD-JPY has put in its third consecutive higher daily high, peaking at 119.96. Reports of Japanese exporter offers from the 120.00 mark have been heard, which have so far kept the figure out of range. With U.S. yields firmer, and risk appetite supportive, downside may be limited from here. The April 14 peak of 120.12 is the next upside target, and should be easy to attain, with buy-stops reposted at 120.05.
12:20 EDTU.S. equities sustained shallow gains
U.S. equities sustained shallow gains after riding out the much stronger than expected existing home sales print, which brought Fed hike debate back to the surface. Europe remained quite mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.14% higher and the German DAX off 0.6% after the ECB reportedly raised the ELA for Greek banks. The Dow settled under 18k, NASDAQ over 5k and S&P near 2.1k, marginally higher. Top gainers in the Dow are Visa +5.3%, McDonald's +2.4% and Coca-Cola +1.0%, while deepest declines were by Boeing -2.3%, UnitedHealth -0.9% and Intel -0.8%. The VIX equity volatility index is 2.6% lower near 12.90, while the USD index is back over 98.0.
11:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: eerily quiet flows
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11:19 EDTWeek of 5/1 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
11:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Harris Corp has a $2.4 B multi-tranche deal
U.S. corporate bond update: Harris Corp has a $2.4 B multi-tranche deal set to price, including 3-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year maturities. Citigroup has a benchmark 3-year fixed/FRN, and a 10-year deal on tap. IBRD is offering benchmark 3-year notes. Africa Finance Corp launched a $750 M 5-year. Blackstone is offering $350 M in 30-year bonds.
11:02 EDTBofA/Merrill data center analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $57.15 from $56.05
Energy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $57.15 from $56.05 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 5.3 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 3.0 M bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.0 M bbls actually fell 2.1 M bbls, while distillate stocks were up 400k bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 M bbl increase. Refinery usage fell to 91.2% from 92.3%. The crude contract had been on the decline into the data, presumably as the market tried to get ahead of what might have been a higher stock build. With that not the case, weak shorts have been squeezed.
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 17
Crude oil inventories 5.32M build vs. consensus of 3.2M build. Gasoline inventories 2.14M draw vs. consensus of 1.0M draw. Distillates 395K build vs. consensus of 1.1M build.
10:30 EDTThe 6.1% U.S. existing home sales pop
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales surged 6.1% to 5.190 M in March
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields ramped higher still
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10:05 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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10:02 EDTHouse Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
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10:00 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:56 EDTAverages slightly lower in early trading
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09:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields spoofed higher again
Treasury Action: yields spoofed higher again with some eying stop-running on Bunds for the T-note yield surge through Tuesday highs of 1.92% to probe above 1.93% for this positioning move. Again, it's not as if stocks are opening particularly well, though others suggest vaguely that FHFA home prices may have been a little hot. The Bund yield accelerated over 0.10% to clear 0.127%. Perhaps some "layering or jamming" is spilling over from the USD-JPY spike to highs of 119.78, though how could that be if "Flash Crash" trading Nav Sarao is under house arrest?
09:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields are higher with the 10-year Treasury hitting 1.93%
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09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.7% in February
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09:10 EDTU.S. equities dug out of a shallow hole
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09:08 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
February FHFA House Price Index M/M change up 0.7% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has bounced
FX Action: USD-CAD has bounced from its 1.2211 lows, currently trading at 1.2245. The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2222, continues to put a floor under the pairing, while the dip in oil prices has limited downside as well. WTI crude appears to be on the rise again however, which could put USD-CAD in a holding pattern for now.
08:50 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index preview:
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08:50 EDTFed dove Rosengren says the Fed may need to delay rate hikes
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08:40 EDTStrange seasonality of Fed decision making
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07:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell back to $55.70
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 2.3%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed with the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield dipped to 1.889% earlier, but has risen to 1.909% currently. European bonds also rallied with the German Bund sliding to 0.08% before edging up to 0.099%. Gilts are underperforming, up over 5 bps to 1.62% after the BoE MPC minutes indicated the next rate move is likely to be up, and the action could be sooner if inflation firms once base effects from oil prices drop out of the equation. Meanwhile, the German government boosted its growth forecast to a 1.8% pace. Japanese trade data showed a trade surplus for the first time since June 2012, with exports up 8.5% y/y, underpinning hope that the BoJ's aggressive easing and the weaker yen have been effective. In the U.S. today, earnings reports will dominate again with Boeing, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, eBay, Angie's List, AT&T, Lorillard, and Cheesecake Factory highlighting. Data includes only March existing home sales and weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications rebounded 2.3% in the week ended April 17, erasing the prior week's -2.3%.
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar eased some overnight, as EUR-USD touched the 1.08 mark following apparent progress in EU/Greece debt talks. USD-JPY idled around a 119.50 midpoint, as cable rallied after more hawkish MPC minutes. The U.S. calendar reveals February FHFA home price data at 9:00 EDT, followed by March existing home sales at 10:00 EDT. Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data are due at 10:30 EDT.
07:23 EDTVolatility continues as futures suggest lower open
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07:21 EDTFDA to hold a forum
Regulatory Education for Industry (REdI): Generic Drugs Forum is being held in Silver Spring, Maryland on April 22-23 with presentations to begin on April 22 at 8:20 am. Webcast Link
07:19 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:17 EDTThe Linley Group to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
4th Annual OCIO Summit to be held in Boston on April 22-23.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded mostly softer
FX Update: The dollar traded mostly softer, including against the euro, sterling, and dollar bloc units, though held fairly steady against the yen. EUR-USD clocked two-day highs in touching 1.8000, which marked a gain of about 70 pips from yesterday's closing level and extended the recovery from the six-day low at 1.0659. Behind the euro's rally today is an abatement in Grexit concerns, at least over the nearer term. Sterling rallied on the MPC minutes to the April meeting, which noted that all members agreed that a repo rate hike was more likely than not over the three-year forecast period and that two members regarded the decision as finely balanced. AUD-USD rallied to a two-day high of 0.7807 on Australian CPI data, which in Q1 rose 0.2% q/q and 1.3% y/y, both in line with median forecasts, though the trimmed mean CPI rose to 2.3% y/y, above the 2.2% y/y rate expected.
06:21 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 22
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled in the mid-1.07s
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April 21, 2015
21:05 EDTJapan's trade balance shifted to a 229.3 B yen surplus in March
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17:48 EDTWeek of 5/2 Redbook to be released at 08:55
17:48 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has dropped to session lows
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14:07 EDTNasdaq leads, Dow lags in mixed afternoon trading
Stocks remain mixed in afternoon trading, as they have been since the opening hour. The Nasdaq has been strong all session and remains in positive territory, while the Dow and S&P have struggled. Advancing stocks are just about equal with declining stocks, while down volume is ahead of up volume. WTI crude oil prices are lower by 1% today ahead of tomorrow's weekly energy inventory reports.
13:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: March existing home sales data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 3.5% increase for the headline to a 5.050 M (median 5.030 M) pace following the 1.2% increase to a 4.880 M pace in February. March housing starts have already been released for the month and revealed a rebound to 0.926 M after a big February dip to 0.908 M.
13:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a couple of big offerings are weighing
U.S. corporate bond update: a couple of big offerings are weighing on Treasuries in an otherwise quiet trade. Sinopec Group leads the way with a hefty $4.8 B 3-trancher, including $2.5 B in 5-year notes, a $1.5 B 10-year, and an $800 M 30-year. KFW has a $3 B 10-year. ADB announced a $2 B 2-year sale. Scentre Group has a benchmark offering including a 6-year and a 10.5 year deal. Suncorp-Metway launched a $600 M 5-year. IBRD is offering benchmark sized 3-year notes. ADB has a $2
12:05 EDTU.S. equities are consolidating gains
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was routine but solid
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11:10 EDTBoston Fed dove Rosengren said "some experimentation"
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish leaning against grain
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY peaked at 119.83
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10:25 EDTU.S. Philly Fed's non-manufacturing index dropped to 41.0 in April
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain locked in a narrow range
Treasury Action: Treasuries remain locked in a narrow range, stymied by a lack of news and various global counterweights of central bank intervention, growth concerns, foreign exchange flows, geopolitical risks, as well as exogenous factors. The 10-year note yield has closed inside 1.96% and 1.85% since March 17. But current positioning data suggest there's room for lower yields given the right catalyst. JPMorgan reported its Treasury "all client" survey showed the most shorts since the first week of October at 28, versus 24 in the prior week. Long positions rose to 11 from 9, while Neutral dropped to 61 from 67. The "active client" survey showed shorts jumping to 25 from 17, longs unchanged at 8, and neutrals falling to 67 from 75.
09:50 EDTNet long positioning on euro$s rate futures is the highest
Net long positioning on euro$s rate futures is the highest at $508.69 B (week ended April 14), since the "taper tantrum" in May of 2013, according to TD Securities analysis cited by the WSJ. The dovish tilt at the Fed of late and pause in the recovery have all fed the bullish trade, which has undercut the prospects of a June rate lift-off and now favors September. Author Min Zeng cites yesterday's dovish Fedspeak from Dudley, as did Fedwatcher Hilsenrath in his Grand Central blog, though warning this could again be a lopsided trade if the economy's underpinnings prove more solid than expected.
09:46 EDTEarnings help lift market in early trading
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09:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the next FOMC meeting is now a week away
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows
FX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows, trading at 1.2225, after basing at 1.2215 into the open. The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2220 has provided early support, as has talk of option backed bids parked at 1.2200. Sell stops are expected under 1.2180, which was Monday's low.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more liquidation in block trade
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08:46 EDTJPMorgan global pharmaceuticals analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook:
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08:15 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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08:00 EDTU.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1%
U.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1% in the week ended April 18. This follows solid gains in the prior 3 weeks, in part on Easter, and in part on warmer weather which helped boost apparel and outdoor goods sales. The annual pace slowed a bit to 3.3% y/y from 3.8% y/y, but is still one of the strongest gains of the year. The changing Easter date makes annual comps difficult.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading
Treasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading. Overseas markets were mixed with JGB posting small gain while European sovereigns are mostly weaker. Global equities are in the green but have slipped from their highs. Greece remains a concern amid reports the ECB is thinking about reducing Greek bank support if reform progress is not forthcoming. In economic news, the German ZEW investor confidence for April disappointed, falling unexpectedly to 53.3 from 54.8 in March. The above factors weighed on EUR-USD which tumbled to 1.0660. In the U.S. today it's all about earnings with names like Yahoo!, Baker Hughes, Under Armour, Harley-Davidson, Verizon, Yum! Brands, Kimberly-Clark, and Zynga. The calendar otherwise contains only weekly chain store sales and a 4-week bill auction.
07:27 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a meeting
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07:26 EDTFutures suggest a follow through to yesterday’s rally
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07:22 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:19 EDTSenate Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Opportunities and Challenges for Agriculture Trade with Cuba" with Under Secretary Scuse of the U.S. Agriculture Dept., Senior Vice President Harris of Riceland Foods and Ralph Kaehler, Farmer and Owner of Kaehler Cattle Company on April 21 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:18 EDTFDIC to hold a board meeting
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07:17 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee holds meeting
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07:13 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 21
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02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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01:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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April 20, 2015
17:09 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:09 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
Canada Wholesale Trade Preview: Analysts expect wholesale shipments, due Tuesday, to rise 0.5% in February (median -0.5%) after the 3.1% plunge in January. Forecast risk is all over the place given the bounce in retail shipments and plunge in manufacturing shipments during February. An as expected bounce would track expectations that the impact of the oil shock was front loaded in Q1. The 2.5% drop in February manufacturing shipments alongside the 1.3% gain in February retail sales informs our wholesale projection. Analysts are giving more weight to the retail sales gain given that the manufacturing drop was due to temporary factors in the vehicle production industry.
14:18 EDTMarket holding onto earlier gains
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: long-end underperformance
Treasury Action: long-end underperformance has been the rule today, though the rising tide on stocks is lifting all boats along the curve. The 2-year yield has backed up from 0.5040% session lows to clear 0.5320%, the 5-year rose from 1.290% to 1.334%, while the 10-year bounced from 1.853% to probe 1.90% and the 30-year ramped up from 2.5090% lows to 2.569%. That saw the 2s-10s spread widen 2 basis points from +135 bp to +137 bp, while the 5s-30s spread stretched 1.5 basis points from +122 bp to +123.5 bp. Swings on stocks have been amplified by China as tighter margin and looser short-selling rules on Friday were contrasted by rate cuts today - setting up the "V" shaped move.
12:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s
Euro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s was spotted at 99.69 today to the tune of 60k with double that reportedly bid as well. Sources say that some 200k in June euro$s were sold from 99.645-99.595 back on March 19 (after last FOMC) and this may be short-covering on that trade. The June contract is a half-tick lower at 99.69 presently and the deferreds remain under pressure, some 0.5-5.0 ticks lower out the back.
12:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 119.35
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11:45 EDTTreasury's 3- and 6-month bill auctions were strong
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:05 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: put liquidations
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10:40 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility broke to lows of 13.14
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to four-month highs
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10:05 EDTA Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment:
A Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment: The downdraft for U.S. producer sentiment may have abated somewhat in April, given improvement in the component data for the Empire State and Philly Fed reports despite unimpressive headlines. On an ISM-adjusted basis, the Empire survey held steady in April while the Philly Fed posted a welcome bounce. Analysts expect ISM-adjusted average of all the major surveys to improve slightly to 51 in April, after a lean 50 average in March, though higher 52 averages in January and February and a 55 average as recently as November.
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved moderately higher
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09:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week. Of course no policy action will be forthcoming. But the markets will be looking to the statement for additional clues on the timing of rate liftoff. With policymakers continuing to stress the data-dependency of rate action, as NY Fed's Dudley just did, there shouldn't be any firm indications on timing. The statement will note the slowdown in Q1, and the markets will try to get a sense of just how much temporary factors are to blame, including the stronger dollar, slow overseas growth, and spillover from energy price weakness. After the disappointing March jobs report, the Fed will repeat it needs to see further improvement, and it may tweak from the March statement that the underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. The outlook on inflation will be important, and the uptick in core CPI to a 1.8% y/y rate in March from 1.7% y/y could give the Fed some confidence that prices are moving toward the target. But that won't be sufficient to suggest any policy changes near term.
09:33 EDTChina's central bank helps U.S. stocks recoup some of Friday’s losses
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09:25 EDTMore from Dudley is not yet reasonably confident
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed early trade
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09:07 EDTUBS U.S. brokers, asset managers analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley said the rate hike is data-dependent
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the mend
U.S. equities are on the mend following European stocks higher in the wake of the China rate cut, which left shares there unimpressed. While the Shanghai Comp fell 1.6%, the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.6% higher. That has left the Dow 105-points firmer, S&P up 10-points and NASDAQ up 17-points in pre-open action. Solid results for Morgan Stanley with a a 59% rise in profits thanks to M&A and trading revenues also helped buoy stocks after lifting MS 2.6%. Hasbro rallied 8.5% after demand for toys relating to movie tie-ins. On a bright note, former Senator, Goldman CEO and disgraced MF Global exec Jon Corzine is considering launching a hedge fund, according to the WSJ.
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to -0.42 in March
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to point to higher open
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08:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
Treasury Market Outlook: Yields backed up slightly from overnight lows after a weak start for equities in Asia was accompanied by a slash in Chinese RRR rates by a full percent. Despite obvious headwinds in Europe, shares rebounded there Bunds still retained a safe-haven bid and peripheral spreads narrowed. Treasury yields are up across the board, led by the long-end, with marginal curve steepening the result. The T-note yield snapped back from Asian lows of 1.855% to 1.885% before stalling again. With little on the docket today outside of the Chicago Fed national activity index, this week's focus will remain on the heavy earnings calendar which will overwhelm a thin slate of economic data, nothing today or Tuesday, and with little to speak of in terms of supply or Fed commentary. The week's data calendar has March existing home sales (Wednesday), new home sales and the flash Markit PMI (Thursday), and durable goods (Friday).
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied nearly $3/bbl
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTEMC Corporation to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTNational Association of Theater Owners to hold a conference
CinemaCon 2015 is being held in Las Vegas on April 20-23.
07:15 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTFutures higher on China central bank move
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06:52 EDTIMF official says Greece talks gained momentum, Reuters reports
Greece's negotiations with its lenders have gained some momentum but are still a long way from being completed, the International Monetary Fund's European head was quoted as saying by a German newspaper, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:49 EDTChina's central bank cuts reserve requirement, Reuters says
China's central bank yesterday reduced the reserve requirement ratio for the country's banks by one percentage point to 18.5%, effective today, the central bank announced, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:13 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 20
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05:40 EDTThe Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged
The Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged in April's cabinet report. The report said that the economy continues to recover in a moderate growth trend, and notes that improvements are being seen in the corporate sector.
April 19, 2015
12:32 EDTChina cuts reserve requirement for commercial banks, WSJ says
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April 18, 2015
12:02 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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12:02 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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12:02 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
March Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
12:02 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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12:02 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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12:02 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
March Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.045M
12:02 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
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April 17, 2015
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning was reported today, highlighted by the sale of 5k total in May 129.5/June 131 call diagonals (selling May) in two 2.5k tranches on 10-year futures. There were also buyers of 6k in June 128.5/127/126 put butterflies, 4k in May 129+ puts, 2k in May 129 puts and 2k in July 128/26+/125+ put butterflies. On the bullish side was a buyer of 5k in May 130.5 calls. June 10s are 1.5-ticks lower near 129-205 compared to the session range of 129-31 to 129-125.
13:30 EDTEnergy Action: Baker-Hughes reported its weekly well count
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13:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: Another round off sluggish data this week, on top of the disappointing March jobs report from April 3, has seen a couple of more defectors from the June rate hike camp. Several FOMC members also appear to be getting cold feet regarding prospective action at mid-year. Home sales and durable goods data highlight a thin calendar next week, with Q1 GDP released on April 29. And Survey medians suggest Fed hawks won't have much ammunition to support their case. Indeed, the projected slump in Q1 GDP growth to a mere 1.1% clip, half of the already sluggish 2.2% Q4 rate, might be transitory, but it should be real enough to keep the Fed sidelined in June.
12:55 EDTTreasury Dealer meeting agenda for the May refunding was announced
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12:40 EDTCleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.2% in March,
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12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back above pre-CPI levels
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11:49 EDTWallachBeth biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analyst Bob Ai, along with a Key Opinion Leader, discusses heart failure and potential treatment options, focusing on gene therapy on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 3 pm.
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more put liquidation
Euro$ interest rate options update: more put liquidation has been spotted with the sale of 20k in September 93/95 put spreads with December 91/92 put spreads. Also there was a purchase of 5k in Blue June 73/75/77 broken put butterflies. Underlying rate futures remain under pressure, falling 0.5-5.0 ticks out the curve, as some price back in a September hike.
10:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped 14% higher to 14.42
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10:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester reiterated that the Q1 slowdown is transitory
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
Treasury Action: yields pulled back from highs as stocks waded deeper into a sea of red, amid aforementioned jitters over Europe, Bloomberg outages, China margin measures and September Fed hike advisor talk, along with the uptick in core CPI. Into those headwinds stocks have extended their slide to -1.5% on NASDAQ, overshadowing the upticks in U. Michigan and LEI. The T-note yield stalled out over 1.91% and has since pulled back under 1.88% after shooting up from the 1.86% area following CPI. The 2s-10s spread has actually narrowed 2 bp to +137 bp as a result.
10:20 EDTThe Michigan sentiment April bounce to 95.9
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10:15 EDTU.S. April consumer sentiment jumped to 2.9 points to 95.9
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up slightly, then dipped
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading economic index rose 0.2% to 121.4 in March
U.S. leading economic index rose 0.2% to 121.4 in March from February's 121.2 (revised from 121.4). Six of the 10 components made positive contributions, led by jobeless claims (0.22%) and the yield curve (0.21%). Three of the components declined, including building permits (-0.18%). The stock price component was flat.
10:00 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling
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09:40 EDTMarket sharply lower after consumer inflation data
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09:30 EDTA Global Advisor report favoring a September Fed hike
A Global Advisor report favoring a September Fed hike is apparently doing the rounds, saying that one-off factors have held the economy back in Q1, but this won't keep the Fed from a lift-off after postponing from June. This could be helping amplify the rebound in yields and the dollar, along with drop in stocks, though it does rather state the obvious and fits with the tenor of recent Fedspeak.
09:05 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals following the CPI data
Treasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals following the CPI data which showed the core rate creeping closer to the Fed's 2.0% target, rising to a 1.8% y/y pace from 1.7% previously. And, breakeven rates continue to rise, paced by the front- and intermediate-maturities. The 5-year BE has climbed to 169 bps, its widest of the year (and since the fall of 2014), versus 165 bps. The spread was as low as 107 bps on January 6 as deflation fears gripped the markets.
09:05 EDTThe March U.S. CPI gains of 0.2%
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities extended declines
U.S. equities extended declines after the uptick in core CPI after already sinking with Europe, as the Greek fillabuster continues to undermine confidence in the region and German yields continue to evaporate. The Dow is 140-points lower, S&P sank 13-points and NASDAQ sank 34-points ahead of the opening bell. Though the Shanghai Comp rose 2.2% to a 7-year high, Chinese equity index futures plunged as much as 5% after regulators moved to cut margin trading loopholes and allow lending of shares for short-selling to help rebalance the frothy markets. Japan's N-225 sank 1.17% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.9% lower and Athens is off 2.1%. Markets remained jittery overnight as well after a several hour universal outage at Bloomberg terminals began in early European trade, leading to old fashioned phone calling. In corporate earnings news, GE sank after posting $13.6 B net loss in part tied to the divestment of its $16 B finance unit. AMD sank 12% after a miss and poor guidance, while AMEX revenues came up short.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took another dive
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08:46 EDTDA Davidson software analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Software Analyst Andrews provides an industry update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 20 at 11 am.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then move higher
FX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then move higher after the slightly hotter core CPI outcome, taking EUR-USD toward 1.0785 from 1.0820, and USD-JPY up to near 119.00 from 118.80. Equity futures continue to imply a lower Wall Street open, while yields moved higher.
08:40 EDTU.S. headline CPI rose 0.2% in March with the core rate up 0.2% as well
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08:33 EDTFutures remain lower heading into market open
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08:27 EDTJefferies healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss orthopedic surgery on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 11 am.
08:20 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 11 am.
08:18 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analysts provide on update on healthcare trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 10:30 am.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has moderated from Thursday's 2015 high
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has moderated from Thursday's 2015 high over $57.30, falling back into current $56.00 levels. Yesterday's gains were partially attributed to militants taking over an oil terminal in Yemen, while renewed dollar weakness supported as well. This morning however, as OPEC reported a surge in March production, up over 800k bpd versus February, prices have come off the boil, as the global supply glut comes back into focus. RBOB gasoline futures are holding near 2015 highs, trading at $1.92.gallon, though up nearly 7% from weekly lows. Natural gas futures are steady near $2.675/M BTU.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds continued their ascent
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07:47 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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07:45 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting to consider a Report and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would leverage innovative spectrum sharing technologies to make 150 megahertz of contiguous spectrum available in the 3550-3700 MHz band for wireless broadband and other uses at the FCC Washington, D.C. offices on April 17 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar made fresh lows across the board overnight, largely as June (or even 2015) Fed rate hike expectations move closer to zero. EUR-USD printed a new high of 1.0848, despite renewed Greece default/exit concerns, as USD-JPY touched 118.57 lows. The calendar reveals March CPI at 8:30 EDT, followed by preliminary U. of Michigan sentiment, and March leading indicators, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:43 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute to hold a discussion
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07:41 EDTFDA Neurological Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses the current knowledge regarding the conduct of clinical studies and evaluation of clinical study data for flow diverter technology is being held at the FDA Silver Spring, Maryland's offices on April 17 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:33 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a symposium
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07:31 EDTH. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTCantor to hold a forum
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07:06 EDTFutures sharply lower with options set to expire
Stock futures are sharply lower following a string of events that have made headlines. Bloomberg's terminals have suffered a global outage which has caused havoc on trading desks, China has said it will crack down on the use of margin for trading stocks, and Greek leaders are warning that the country's liquidity is drying up, so it needs to make a deal soon with lenders. There was also a call made by a prominent analyst who predicted that the S&P would begin a correction today with the expiration of options which occurs on the third Friday of each month.
06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 17
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06:01 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has sunk below the Tokyo low
FX Action: USD-JPY has sunk below the Tokyo low in making a low so far of 118.80, and the par is looking set to touch the two-week low that was seen on Wednesday at 118.79. Major Japanese funds has reportedly buyers at sub-119 levels for s second day. Relatively upbeat talk from Japanese policymakers this week have helped support the yen, which logged a near two-year high against the euro earlier in the week. The dollar is also down in the popularity stakes following a run of softer data and mixed Fedspeak. The 200-day moving average at 119.27 marks resistance, ahead of the 20-day moving average at 119.67 and the 50-day moving average at 119.81. The Apr-3 low at 118.72 and the Mar-25 low at 118.33 provide downside markers.
03:18 EDTWeek of 4/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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03:18 EDTWeek of 4/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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02:40 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is softer after peaking at 1.0817
FX Update: EUR-USD is softer after peaking at 1.0817 yesterday. This level and the 20-day moving average at 1.0801 mark near-to resistance. Recent gains have mostly been prompted by a run of softer U.S. data that has all but switched off chances of a Fed tightening as soon as June. The euro, meanwhile, has the benefit of signs of economic recovery, though ECB boss Draghi stressed this week that there would be no tapering of the QE program, while the Greek situation remains a significant wildcard risk factor. USD-JPY has been hovering around 119.00 after forming a base above the near two-week low that was seen on Wednesday at 118.79. Major Japanese funds have reportedly been buyers at sub-119 levels for s second day. USD-CAD struck a three-month low at 1.2251 on a combo of weaker U.S. data, the BoC's downplaying of the oil price shock on the Canadian economy, and a decent rally in oil prices this week. AUD-USD has settled to a consolidation after surging yesterday on the unexpectedly strong Australian March employment report.
April 16, 2015
23:10 EDTSingapore non-oil exports rose 18.5% in March
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15:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: someone fading the rally?
Treasury Option Action: someone fading the rally? It would appear so, or taking profit, with the late sale of 27.2k in June 109.375/109.5 call spreads on 2-year futures. June 2s are 1.7-ticks higher near 109-245 compared to their 109-245 to 109-22 range.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:43 EDTWeek of 4/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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14:43 EDTWeek of 4/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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17:59 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 4/25 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 288K
14:30 EDTMore from Lockhart: June liftoff is still on the table, but it's not his preference
More from Lockhart: June liftoff is still on the table, but it's not his preference, he said in speaking to reporters. He's like to see a later date for the initial rate hike. He reiterated he'd like to see more confirming evidence of the recovery, and that the stronger the evidence, the more orderly the subsequent the policy path will be. The FOMC's expectation is for a more gradual path of rates, but that too is data dependent.
14:20 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The first release on April Michigan Sentiment is out Friday and the headline should improve to 94.0 (median 94.0) from 93.0 in March. Depressed gasoline prices have helped to lift consumer confidence measures through the winter and the already released IBD/TIPP Poll for April increased to 51.3 from 49.1.
14:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: March CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.2%) headline increase for the month with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%). PPI data for March has already been released and revealed a 0.2% headline gain and a 0.2% core increase. Plunging oil prices kept inflation measures depressed through the winter but they leveled off in March and are now beginning to rebound.
14:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has vaulted to $57.36 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has vaulted to $57.36 highs, with late buyers emboldened by the break of the overnight high of $56.66, along with further dollar weakness. The contract now stands at four-month highs.
13:50 EDTFed dove Rosengren: rate hike conditions have not been met
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13:43 EDTAverages nearly unchanged as market looks for direction
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13:25 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are recovering
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13:20 EDTFed hawk Meister wants to hike relatively soon
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13:15 EDTFed's Lockhart would like to see "direct, affirmative evidence in the data
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD continued its downward path
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12:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling
Euro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling has been reported, including sales of 5k in Green June 86/87/88 call butterflies and 5k in Front September 96/97/98 call butterflies, along with the bearish purchase of 5k in Front September 95 puts. Underlying rate futures remain under pressure, with the deferreds down by as much as 4.5-ticks.
12:25 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has drifted lower
U.S. VIX equity volatility has drifted lower to the 13.0 area as stocks find some traction from lows, compared to a very tight range of 13.35-12.95. Year lows of 10.28 set on July 3 of 2014 provide the next area of support, with life lows of 8.2 on July 4 1994 seemingly at odds with volatility expected surrounding the Fed rate lift-off later in the year. Compared to 16.66 April highs on the first of the month, this followed suit with the rebound in the S&P 500 from 2,048 lows on the same day to an April high of 2,111. That's a 13.8% gain from flash crash lows of 1,820 back on October 17th. In the meantime, another run at life highs of 2,119.59 set on February 25 doesn't seem much of a stretch, especially if earnings continue to shrug off the Q1 economic slump.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed to rally back to 110.43
FX Action: USD-JPY managed to rally back to 110.43 highs before heading lower, with talk of technically driven sellers stepping in ahead of the overnight high of 119.47, and the 50-day moving average, which currently sits at 119.55. The April 3 low of 118.72 provides initial support, with the March 26 base of 118.33 the next downside target.
11:40 EDTU.S. equities are attempting to base
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced an $18 B 5-year TIPS offering for Thursday
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11:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: it's harder and harder to make a case for a June hike
Fed Policy Outlook: it's harder and harder to make a case for a June hike (analysts've always thought September was the soonest anyway). Softer data and the dovish tone of key Fed officials and policy statements have largely taken mid-year rate liftoff out of the picture. This week's disappointing economic reports, along with the unexpectedly weak March jobs report, will leave policymakers sidelined in June. There's just not enough time over the next two months to make up the erosion. Q4 GDP growth was more than halved from the 5.0% pace of Q3, and Q1 looks to be cut in two as well, with our forecast of a 1.0% clip. Q2 is still quite uncertain, as noted by Fed VC Fischer, but it's not starting off on great footing. Manufacturing growth remains uneven, as indicated by the April Philly Fed and Empire State reports. The housing sector is also not cooperating. Inventories remain bloated with the I/S ratio at a recessionary level. Consumption hasn't benefited much from the oil price drop windfall. And while the labor market has been a major bright spot, there's risk from ongoing erosion in the energy sector. And as for price pressures, at best the Fed will see bottoming, but aren't likely to be convinced yet that inflation is moving to the 2% target given the slow economic growth so far this year.
11:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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11:07 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount data reported
5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount at $18.0 B
10:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields set session highs
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10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed bounce to 7.5
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10:35 EDTFed VC Fischer showed no urgency for a June hike,
Fed VC Fischer showed no urgency for a June hike, but acknowledged the obvious that rates will go up eventually, in a CNBC interview. He didn't want to give any definite timeline and said the Fed didn't really know when it will liftoff since the policy action is data dependent. So far the recovery has been uneven -- there's growth, but it's not spectacular -- with Q1 looking a lot like it did last year with weather impacting. It won't be necessary for inflation to be at the 2% target before the Fed starts to remove accommodation, price pressures just need to be moving toward that goal. He sidestepped questions on whether he's "fearful" about raising rates. He acknowledged it's possible to get things wrong, but he stressed that even with a hike, the Fed's stance will still be expansionary. The dollar is one of many factors that affect the way the economy is behaving. He expects the markets to be forward looking and so should be taking account of the Fed's eventual rate hike, and noted that they cannot depend on the Fed remaining accommodative forever.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 10
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged a touch higher
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10:15 EDTU
U.S. Philly Fed index rose 2.5 points to 7.5 in April, slightly better than expected, after slipping 0.2 points to 5.0 in March. The improvement this month breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines. However, the internals were mixed and take some of the shine off of the report. The employment component jumped back to 11.5 from 3.5 and is the highest since November. The workweek rose to 3.4 from -11.4. But new orders slid to 0.7 from 3.9 and is the lowest print since February 2014. Prices paid dropped further to -7.5 from -3.0, the weakest since June 2009. Prices received increased moderately but remain in contractionary territory at -4.1 versus -6.4 previously. The 6-month general business activity index edged up to 35.5 from 32.0. The future employment index increased to 20.6 from 14.4, with new orders dipping to 30.8 from 34.3 and capital expenditures at 15.8 from 16.4.
10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields inched up from lows
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 46.6
09:44 EDTMarket opens lower after U.S. housing data, Greek debt yield surge
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09:40 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
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09:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed early positioning
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09:30 EDTThe 2.0% March U.S. housing starts uptick
The 2.0% March U.S. housing starts uptick to a still-weak 926k rate only slightly trimmed the weather-led February plunge to a 908k (was 897k) pace from 1.072 (was 1.081) M in January. Analysts saw the expected big weather rebounds for starts in the Northeast and Midwest, but there were surprising further declines in the West and South. Housing completions also fell further in March, to a 823k nine-month low from an already-weak 850k February rate. Permits fell 5.7% in March to a 1.039 M rate after a 4.0% pop in February to a 1.102 M cycle-high pace from the 1.060 M rate in December and January. Permits are outpacing starts despite the lean March figure, and analysts still expect starts to climb back toward the 1.105 M expansion-high set in November of 2013. Starts under construction, which drives new home construction, rose by a lean 0.6% in March after a small 0.2% (was 0.4%) rise in February. Analysts haven't seen a decline in this measure since May of 2011, though the pace of growth for this important metric clearly slowed in Q1.
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are in the red today
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities are mired in the red
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09:12 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Testing, Inspection & Assurance Conference is being held in London, England on April 16.
09:10 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a symposium
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09:00 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims rise to 294k
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08:55 EDTFedspeak resumes with a vengeance
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08:47 EDTBofA/Merrill hardware/software analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Hardware Analyst Mohan and Software Analyst Rangan discuss the results of BofA/Merrill's Quarterly IT Buyer Survey on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 16 at 11 am.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 2.0% to 926k in March
U.S. housing starts rebounded 2.0% to 926k in March after dropping 15.3% to 908k in February (revised from 897k). Single family starts rose 4.4% after a 15.2% drop previously. Multifamily starts dropped another 2.5% following February's 15.5% decline. Building permits fell 5.7% to 1.039 M from 1.102 M (revised from 1.092 M previously). The data are a little below estimate.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims edged up 12k to 294k in the week ended April 11
U.S. initial jobless claims edged up 12k to 294k in the week ended April 11, from a revised 282k previously (was 281k). The four week moving average rose to 282.75k from 282.50k, while continuing claims fell 40k to 2,268k from revised 2,308.
08:39 EDTBofA/Merrill Rates & FX Research analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:37 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 4/11 Jobless Claims at 294K vs. consensus of 280K
08:34 EDTFutures remain lower following housing and jobless claims data
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08:25 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: Housing starts are expected to rebound 17.1% to a 1,050k unit pace in March following the -17.0% plunge to 897k in February. This compares to a recent high of 1,098k in July and a low of 521k in April '09. Forecast risk is upward from here, however, as analysts rebound from February weather disruptions. Permits are expected at 1,080k in February from 1,102k in February. preview for more.
08:25 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:16 EDTNew York Federal Reserve holds a press briefing
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08:15 EDTBernanke may be meddling in the Fed's exit strategy
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08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude took a break
Energy Action: NYMEX crude took a break from its sharp three-day rally, easing back into current $55.35, after making 2015 highs of $56.66 on Wednesday. The recent rally comes a U.S. production slows, though inventories rose to new record levels in the U.S., as reported by the EIA on Wednesday. OPEC production remains at high levels, and the market continues to be oversupplied on a global basis. As a result, further oil price gains may be more difficult to achieve in the near term, with sources now seeing a trading range centered on the $55 level developing. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures have come off their one-month high near $1.84/gallon posted yesterday, and are currently trading at $1.905, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.41, up a penny from a week ago, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are near one-week highs, currently trading at $1.61/M BTU.
08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:50 EDTBernanke agreed to become a senior advisor to hedge fund Citadel
Bernanke agreed to become a senior advisor to hedge fund Citadel in a deal confirmed by the NY Times after the close last night. Bernanke said he chose Citadel in part because it is not regulated by the Fed and he would not do any lobbying, having declined offers from several banks. In his past incarnation of Fed Chairman he has been accused by some critics as creating the world's largest hedge fund after 3 rounds of QE created a $3 trl balance sheet, so it is a little ironic (if not appropriate) that he will advise one of the largest such funds. He will continue to blog for the Brookings Institute as well, as he spreads the sage advice around.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook:
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07:33 EDTBoston Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:32 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on the economy
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester speaks on the economy and monetary policy before the Forecasters Club of New York in New York on April 16 at 1:10 pm.
07:31 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion
Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s Finance Minister since 2009, discusses key economic policy issues in Germany and in Europe in a discussion entitled, "Eurozone at a Crossroads", being held in Washington, D.C. on April 16 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
07:29 EDTEuropean Central Bank Vice President to speak at conference
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07:27 EDTFederal Reserve Board Member Participates in IMF Conference
Federal Reserve Chair Stanley Fischer and European Central Bank Board Member Peter Praet speak on a panel at the International Monetary Fund's Conference, "Rethinking Macro Policy III", being held in Washington, D.C. on April 16 at 10:40 am.
07:26 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing
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07:24 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:23 EDTFederal Energy Regulatory Commission to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FERC Washington, D.C. offices on April 16 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:19 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:18 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion
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07:12 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a symposium
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07:10 EDTFutures lower ahead of economic data
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 16
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05:53 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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05:05 EDTFX Action: The yen has been trading mixed
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD's post-weak U.S. data rebound extended
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April 15, 2015
16:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts bought a net $4.1 B in total assets
U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts bought a net $4.1 B in total assets in February after purchasing $51.0 B in January (revised down from $88.3 B). Also, overseas accounts picked up $9.8 B in net long term assets in February after selling $27.4 B previously (revised from -$27.2 B). Accounts sold $6.3 B in Treasury coupons, while buying $9.4 B in corporates, $8.9 B in agencies, and $800 M in stocks. China was the largest seller of Treasuries at $15.4 B, followed by the U.K. at $15.1 B, Japan at $14.2 B, and Russia at $12.6 B. The Caribbean and India were the biggest buyers at $10.5 B each.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: In a rather disjointed session, ECB's Draghi pressing for full implementation of QE had the greatest market resonance, lifting both bonds and stocks. Bunds posted a fresh low yield as well. This came after a brief interlude with a confetti-tossing protestor who leapt on to the stage and following rounds of mostly damp data that seemed to defer a Fed hike further into 2015. The dollar turned lower and WTI crude oil prices surged past $56 bbl. The Empire State index sank, as did industrial production, though the NAHB index rose. Fed's Bullard warned of holding to ZIRP for too long, while the Beige Book noted the impact of the dollar, oil and winter on the economy.
14:59 EDTWeek of 4/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:59 EDTWeek of 4/24 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
14:40 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated the economy continued to expand
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14:20 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated the economy continued to expand
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14:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched nearly three-month lows
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are above lows
Treasury Action: yields are above lows in the wake of the Beige Book report, which saw some impact from the dollar, oil and winter, that have provided some headwinds for the economy. The rebound in yields came mainly prior to the report after the European close, providing for some mean reversion after the Bund-led rally earlier. The T-note yield based ahead of 1.87% and rebounded over 1.89%, compared to highs of 1.917%. The 2s-10s spread settled at +139 bp as the 2-year yield remains stuck at 0.500%.
14:14 EDTFed says economic growth moderate to modest from mid-February through end March
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14:03 EDTFed notes economic growth across most regions in Beige Book
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13:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar is on session lows
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13:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has continued its rally,
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13:00 EDTFed's Beige Book preview:
Fed's Beige Book preview: the report should reiterate the weary "moderate growth" mantra on the economy. However, that will belie the mixed results across Districts and sectors as the northeast and south try to recover from some of the weather hits, while lingering impacts from the ports' strike in the west, and difficulties in the oil sector impact more broadly. The job sector should remain a bright spot, the March employment report notwithstanding. Consumer spending should have generally increased. Also, manufacturing likely expanded at varying rates, as noted in the March Beige Book, while services should have extended gains too. Wage pressures likely remained moderate, except for skilled workers in difficult-to-fill positions. Prices probably were mostly steady to slightly higher. The prior report indicated shipping costs had increased due to delays from the ports' strike. There shouldn't be anything in the report that will give the Fed confidence to start rate liftoff anytime soon.
12:40 EDTTreasury Action: yields have settled near lows
Treasury Action: yields have settled near lows even as stocks extended gains, with the belly of the curve outperforming, where yields on 5s and 7s are nearly 3 basis points lower compared to a 1.2 bp decline on the 2-year to the 0.50% area and an 1.5 bp dip in the bond yield to 2.53%. 5s are probing below 1.31%, but are still some way above the 1.239% low struck on payrolls Friday. The 10-year yield has eased below 1.88% and the 2s-10s spread has narrowed back to +137 bp from the +140 bp area, but 5s-30s has steepened to +121 bp as a result. The ECB aiming for full QE implementation has evidently provided the bullish signal to both asset classes (cue confetti), despite mostly weaker headline data.
12:10 EDTGreece downgraded to 'CCC+' from 'B-' by S&P
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: large sale of call condors
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied sharply
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 10
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD spilled below yesterday's low
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10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning included a bearish purchase of 5k in December 87/92/93/95 put condors at a 2x1x1x1 ratio, along with a purchase of 5k in December 91/93 call spreads. The lead June 2015 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.695, while the deferreds are 1-3.5 ticks firmer out the curve. ECB Draghi's commitment to QE appeared to offset mostly weaker data today, leaving both stocks and Treasuries higher.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder confidence index climbed 4 points to 56 in April
U.S. NAHB homebuilder confidence index climbed 4 points to 56 in April after sliding 3 points to 52 in March (revised from 53), though it's still down from 58 in November and December. Gains were across all 3 components. The single family sales index improved to 61 from 58. The future sales index rose to 64 from 59. The index of prospective buyer traffic increased to 41 from 37.
10:03 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
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10:03 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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10:00 EDTThe 0.6% U.S. March industrial production drop
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09:55 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to rise to 54 in April from 53. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:47 EDTStocks rise despite manufacturing, industrial production data missing forecasts
U.S. equity futures were higher throughout the pre-market trading session despite weaker than expected reports on manufacturing in the New York region and industrial production. The Empire State manufacturing report and the industrial production decline were worse than expected but the market showed little reaction as earnings take center stage. The broader market opened in positive territory and the Dow and S&P 500 are both up about 0.5% in early trading. About fifteen minutes after the opening bell, the Dow is up 101 points, the Nasdaq is up 16 points and the S&P is up 11 points.
09:45 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1 and this automated estimate updated in real time tracks 13 components of GDP growth as they are reported (analysts are still at 1.0%). The project goes back only to the second half of 2011, but in 7 quarters from late 2011 to 2014, its accuracy beat economists 5 out of 7 times, with 1 loss and 1 tie. The model is apparently especially good when the expected growth is less than 1%, according to sources. for more detail.
09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell back
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended declines
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09:20 EDTFed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles
Fed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles, in his remarks on financial regulation from Washington. And added that a gradual rise in rates would mitigate that risk, while still providing "significant" policy accommodative. He will reserve judgment on inflation until oil prices stabilize, but said a drop in inflation expectations bears watching and he'd be concerned if they fell from 2%. Labor markets are approaching more normal conditions and he forecasts growth of about 3% over the medium term. Bullard isn't a voter.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities are holding their own
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09:00 EDTThe Empire State April drop to -1.19
The Empire State April drop to -1.19 extended the small March decline to 6.90 to leave the index just above the 19-month low of -1.23 in December, and well below the 27.41 five-year high in September. The ISM-adjusted Empire State measure remained at the lean 51.0 March figure, versus a 47.5 one-year low in December and a 55.3 two-year high back in June. The 2015 drop in producer sentiment in the face of unsustainably high inventories and the petro-headwind tracks the pull-back for GDP growth to the estimated 1.0% rate in Q1 from a lean 2.2% Q4 pace, and the Industrial production slowdown to a flat Q1 figure from a 4.4% Q4 clip. Analysts expect the Philly Fed to remain at March's lean 5.0 reading. Analysts expect a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0, a small Dallas Fed uptick to -17.0 from -17.4, an ISM rise to 52.0 from 51.5, and an unchanged 56.5 ISM-NMI reading. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to remain at the same weak 50 figure seen in March, versus 52 in January and February, 53 in December, 55 over the four months ending in November, and a 56 cycle-high last July.
08:55 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs
Treasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs after the Empire State negative print capped the earlier sell-off, though stocks are taking the news in stride as the Fed is kept arms length from its tightening plans. The T-note yield stalled under 1.92% and eased briefly below 1.90%, but the markets await the ECB press conference as well, which may take on greater importance. The 2s-10s spread is trading just inside +140 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April after slipping 0.88 points to 6.90 in March. The index has generally sagged since jumping almost 20 points to 27.4 in September, and hit a low of -1.23 in December. The employment component was halved to 9.57 from 18.56, with the workweek at -4.26 from 5.15. New orders declined to -6.0 from -2.39. Prices paid rose to 19.15 from 12.37 and prices received falling to 4.26 from 8.25. The 6-month general business conditions index improved to 37.06 from 30.72, after hitting a recent high of 48.35 in January. The future employment index slipped to 22.34 from 28.87, with new orders at 33.57 from 26.31, and capital expenditures at 24.47 from 18.56. The current conditions figures are much weaker than expected and should support Treasuries.
08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following manufacturing data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the Empire manufacturing report. The report had a reading of -1.19 versus expectations of +7.17. The next set of data points are due out at 9:15 am ET, when reports on industrial production and capacity utilization are due to be released.
08:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard
Fedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard who will be discussing the economy and monetary policy from 9 ET. He will be followed by Fed VC Fischer who will speak on a panel on macro-prudential tools at the IMF/World Bank meetings from 10:40 ET. Then Richmond Fed hawk Lacker mulls "Investing in People for Long-Term Prosperity" after the close from 19:30 ET.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
Energy Action: NYMEX crude touched levels last seen on February 3, peaking at $54.19 following IEA forecasts of firmer demand in the current quarter. The rally was helped by short covering in the May Brent contract, which expires later today. A firmer dollar has limited price gains into the N.Y. open, while China's slower growth, and prospects for additional Iran supply, should a nuclear agreement be made, have offset the rally to a degree as well. RBOB gasoline futures are up nearly 2 cents/gallon to $1.87, leaving U.S. average retail prices nearly unchanged over the past week, at $2,39/gallon. Natural gas futures are up 0.75% at $2.55/M BTU, though still near recent trend lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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08:14 EDTRichmond Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on economic outlook
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08:12 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:11 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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08:10 EDTHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs to hold a hearing
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08:08 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:07 EDTThe Bank of Canada Governor Poloz holds a press conference
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08:00 EDTSt Louis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on the economy
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07:59 EDTEuropean Central Bank President to hold a press conference
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07:52 EDTJMP Securities to hold a field trip
Singapore Insurance Field Trip travels throughout Singapore on April 15-16.
07:51 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:43 EDTLevy Economics Institute to hold a conference
Is Financial Regulation Holding Back Finance for the Global Recovery Conference is being held at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on April 15-16.
07:42 EDTMecklerMedia to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.3% in data released earlier, along side a 3.1% decline in the purchase index and a 1.8% drop in the refinancing index for the week ended April 10. This followed the Easter break and mortgage rates rose slightly with the 30-year fixed averaging 1 basis point higher at 3.87%, a still historically lean level though up from recent lows. Last week the Fed minutes confirmed the removal of the trigger word "patience", but on balance remained fairly dovish. The Fed continues to be concerned about the housing sector, even as employment continues to improve and wage growth seems to base. For more detail on housing, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:39 EDTInternational Society for Heart & Lung Transplantation to hold annual meeting
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07:37 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTGood start to earnings season lifts futures
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07:15 EDTFX Update: That sinking feeling returned to the euro
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06:35 EDTFX Update: There euro came under pressure
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06:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has ebbed back under 119.50
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 15
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05:54 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
03:15 EDTBoJ boss Kuroda said that QQE is having the intended effects
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03:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading firmer
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01:45 EDTChina Q1 GDP dipped to its lowest level since 2009
China Q1 GDP dipped to its lowest level since 2009, coming in at 7.0% y/y. This met expectations, though there will be some relief that a sub-7% outcome was avoided following the unexpected 15% dive in March export data. However, a slew of March data releases all came in below expectations, with industrial production at 5.6% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y, retail sales at 10.2% y/y, down form 10.7% y/y, and fixed investment at 13.5%, down from 13.8%. The data has a subduing affect on stock markets in Asia, while the China proxy currency, the AUD, traded lower.
April 14, 2015
22:15 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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22:40 EDTS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index to be reported at 09:00
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17:15 EDTWeek of 4/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:45 EDTFed Board discount meeting minutes showed an unchanged 0.75% rate
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary: Treasuries rallied
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15:20 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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15:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The Empire State kicks off April producer sentiment data Wednesday and should show a 8.0 (median 6.8) headline following a decline to 6.9 in March from 7.8 in February and 10.0 in January. Producer sentiment declined broadly in March, pulling the ISM-adjusted measure for the month down to 50 from 52 in February and January.
15:10 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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14:01 EDTAverages are mixed as volume remains light
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12:45 EDTU.S. stocks have unwound earlier losses
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12:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on one-week highs of $53.49,
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was very well received
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:25 EDTThe firm 0.3% February U.S. business inventory rise
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained sharply lower
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10:09 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
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09:45 EDTIMF trimmed its U.S. growth forecast to a 3.1% pace from its prior 3.6%
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09:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD cracked the 1.2500 mark
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09:41 EDTMaxim energy/oil analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Rapidan Group Founder Bob McNally, discuss crude oil on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 14 at 1 pm.
09:36 EDTWedbush analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:34 EDTMarket slightly higher after solid earnings from banks, J&J
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09:33 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended lower
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09:25 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. March PPI bounce
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09:24 EDTBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System holds closed meeting
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09:10 EDTU.S Business Inventories Preview
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09:10 EDTThe 0.9% March U.S. retail sales bounce
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities extended declines
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI final demand rose 0.2% in March with the core rate up 0.2%
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell following the data
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: post-data swings
Treasury Action: post-data swings have sent stocks and yields lower after retail sales came in just shy of median forecasts, while core PPI was above average. Those knee-jerk moves could be partly the "good is bad" view vis-a-vis the Fed, especially after the uptick in core PPI, though that makes the drop in yields harder to explain. The T-note yield reversed from 1.93% session highs to lows of 1.88%, and clearly the "whisper number" on the retail report was higher. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed 2-3 basis points to +137 bp. Look for some mean reversion after the dust settles.
08:41 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization" with Administrator of the FAA, Michael Huerta on April 14 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
08:35 EDTFutures move lower following economic data
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08:35 EDTProducer Price Index PPI data reported
Producer Price Index PPI up 0.2% for the month
08:35 EDTProducer Price Index PPI less food & energy data reported
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08:30 EDTCitigroup technology analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:23 EDTCitigroup analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:20 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
U.S. PPI Preview: March PPI data should show a 0.3% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the core figure down -0.1% (median 0.1%). This follows February figures which revealed a -0.5% headline with a matching -0.5% decline for the core that month. The leveling off in oil prices should lend some support to the report after four months of headline declines through the winter.
08:15 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 1.0% in the week ended April 11
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08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $52.40
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $52.40, up from overnight lows of $51.80, and just off $52.64 highs. Support came from an EIA report, which forecasts U.S. shale production to fall 45k bpd in May, the first drop in four years. U.S. shale oil production remains just shy of 5 M bpd however, and sources suggest the small drop in production will not provide much more upside for oil prices. The next potential market mover for oil will be China GDP data, due tonight, where a soft reading could dent prices significantly. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures are up a penny, over $1.82/gallon, while natural gas futures climbed off their multi-year low of $2.475/M BTU, currently trading at $2.53.
08:00 EDTHilsenrath is looking for "green shoots" in March retail sales
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTFutures lower ahead of earnings and economic data
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07:17 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks at a forum
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks before a public town hall forum being held in Winona, Minnesota on April 14 at 8 pm.
07:16 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
Career Chat entitled, "A Career in Fixed Income" with Managing Principal at Payden & Rygel, Justin Bullion, who discusses how to best position oneself for a career in fixed income is being held in Boston on April 14 at 4:15 pm.
07:16 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
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07:11 EDTiPro-Oklahoma to hold a conference
Information Professionals for Oklahoma (IPro) 2015 Conference is being held in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on April 14-15.
07:06 EDTGlobal Hunter Securities to hold a conference
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07:06 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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05:57 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.40 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.02%, DAX down 0.56%. WTI Crude oil is recently at 52.15, natural gas up 0.48%, gold at $1188 an ounce, copper down 4.29%.
02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has remained above yesterday's four-week low
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April 13, 2015
22:55 EDTJapan officials distanced themselves from advisor Hamada's remarks
Japan officials distanced themselves from advisor Hamada's remarks after he reportedly said that USD-JPY closer to 105.00 purchasing power parity levels was "appropriate." It was never very clear if that was a hypothetical to begin with in early NY previously, but just to be sure Japan Economics Minister Amari had "no comment" on FX levels, leaving it up to the market to decide so long as there were not volatile moves. Japan Finance Minister Aso refused to comment directly on Hamada's view of the weak yen, expecting the G20 to discuss the uneven nature of global growth, while planning to tell the G20 that Japan is taking a turn for the better. USD-JPY has slipped back below 120.00, but has been in a tight 120.17-119.71 range so far, while the Nikkei is slightly lower.
22:25 EDTSingapore's GDP grew 2.1% y/y in Q1
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17:14 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:14 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:14 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:30 EDTNY Fed's Potter discussed much maligned drop in liquidity
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15:10 EDTCitigroup metals/mining analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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14:54 EDTCitigroup commodities strategists hold analyst/industry conference call
Commodities Strategists Ivan Szpakowski and Aakash Doshi provide an outlook on the 2Q15 Commodity Market on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 15 at 9 am.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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14:14 EDTAverages reverse in afternoon trading, Nasdaq slightly higher
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14:10 EDTU.S. Treasury reported a $52.9 B budget deficit in March
U.S. Treasury reported a $52.9 B budget deficit in March, a little worse than expected. It compares to a $36.9 B shortfall in the same month last year for a 43.4% erosion. However, it's much improved from the $106.5 B red ink amount posted in March 2013. Receipts only rose 8.5% y/y (about half the 16.0% y/y pick up in 2014) and outlays were up 13.6% y/y (versus -13.6% y/y in 2014). The deficit for the fiscal year has risen 6.3% y/y to $439.5 B versus a $413.3 B shortfall for the same 6 month period in 2014.
14:05 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Treasury Budget Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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13:55 EDTCorporate earnings announcements come to the forefront this week
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13:55 EDTU.S Business Inventories Preview
U.S Business Inventories Preview: February inventory data is out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.3%) increase on the month with sales remaining unchanged. This follows respective January figures of unchanged and -2.0%. February retail inventories will also accompany the report and should be down 0.1% in February. Data in line with our forecast will leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.36 for a second month.
13:55 EDTFrom the Fed Twitter files: "I received a suspicious-looking e-mail
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13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: more bearish leaning at long-end
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13:31 EDTUnited States ratings affirmed by Fitch
Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States' Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AAA'. Fitch has also affirmed the issue ratings on the United States' senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds at 'AAA'. The Rating Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable. "The U.S.'s 'AAA' rating is underpinned by the sovereign's unparalleled financing flexibility as the issuer of the world's pre-eminent reserve currency and benchmark fixed-income asset, and as home to the world's deepest and most liquid capital markets," the rating agency said.
13:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mixed plate
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13:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is light today
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12:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: underlying futures extended gains
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY slipped briefly under 120.00
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was well received
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was well received, particularly the longer dated tranche, and thanks to strong indirect bidding. The $24 B 3-month offering priced at 0.025%, right on the screws and only slightly cheaper than last week's 0.020%. There were $97.0 B in bids for a healthy 4.07 cover, though below the prior 4.23 and the 4.15 average. However, indirect bidders took 33.8%, almost double the 19.4% previously and better than the 21.6% average. In fact it's the highest since February 9. The $24 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.105%, just through the 0.11% at the bid deadline, though up from the 0.095% last week. Bids totaled $103 B for a strong 4.32 cover, and much better than last week's 4.05 and the 4.07 average. It's the highest since February 17. Indirect bidders were awarded 52.5%, double the previous 24.1% and well over the 33.7% average. It is the tops since October 2013.
11:55 EDTTreasury Curve Action: a round trip on yields
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11:15 EDTTreasury Supply: a $30 B 4- will bill auction was announced for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at 1.2646
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11:05 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:05 EDTU.S. equities extended their rebound
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10:40 EDTBen the Blogger is back: Bernanke discusses why rates are so low
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded briefly over $53/bbl,
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09:38 EDTMarket looking to extend weekly winning streak
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09:35 EDTChain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound:
Chain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound: Chain store sales slowed in March to signal downside risk to U.S. retail sales, which should otherwise receive a March lift from gains in gasoline, vehicles, and building materials alongside high confidence levels. Analysts expect March gains of 0.6% for the headline and 0.4% ex-autos after three straight months of sales declines. Gasoline prices rose 5% in March, vehicle sales rebounded to a 17.1 M pace from 16.2 M, and building materials have room to reverse a 2.3% February plunge, though analysts have a continued headwind from bad weather and delayed refund distributions.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe
Treasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe overnight thanks to gains in German Bunds. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.94% after testing 1.98% earlier on spillover from the drop in the 10-year Bund to 0.148%, which would be a new closing nadir. Consolidation is the name of the game today ahead of key data on retail sales and inflation. Stronger than expected sales and price figures should keep yields biased higher, especially after light domestic demand for last week's auctions. The disappointing March jobs report is now in the rearview mirror with forecasts for a Q2 rebound in growth now the story, and hence supporting risk of Fed rate liftoff by September.
09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are marginally lower
U.S. equities are marginally lower after a mixed performance in Asia and Europe to start the week. The Dow is 41-points lower, S&P fell 5-points and NASDAQ is off 2-points ahead of the opening bell. This followed more gains in China with the Shanghai +2.1% and HK Hang Seng +2.7% higher amid fewer trading restrictions (despite a collapse in China's trade surplus), though Japan's Nikkei fell 0.01%. Europe is mixed, but the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.1% higher even after reports that Greece's Tsipras is considering new elections if talks fail - Athens at +1.0% strangely appears to like that idea. Qualcomm is nearly 5% higher after reports of activist investors eying a spinoff of the firm's chip unit. Apple gained marginally on solid pre-orders for their watch. Financial sector earnings are on tap later in the week from the likes of JPM, BofA, Schwab, AMEX, Blackrock, Citi and Goldman, which will all be closely considered. The Treasury budget was rolled over from last week and will be considered late in the session.
08:25 EDTFormer Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient
Former Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient as it mulls a rate increase, since inflation won't return to its 2% target until 2017, according to an Op-Ed in the WSJ. He cited core inflation ranging from 1.3-1.7% and headline inflation near zero, only a slight increase in wages and long term unemployed as reasons for "patience" to remain a working concept even after it was banished from the statement. Blinder also cites the Q1 "speed bump" in growth and dollar appreciation, along with the lack of a feared "bubble" from extended ZIRP. Thus, "Monetary policy will eventually begin to normalize. But not in June, and maybe not in September. Timing, they say, is everything. This is a time for patience," said the Princeton professor.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker after European sovereigns gave up earlier gains. The 10-year yield has climbed several basis points to 1.975%. Trading volume has been strong to open the week. Equities are mixed amid ongoing worries over a Greek accident. Chinese trade data was on the disappointing side, though the Shanghai index climbed on hopes of more stimulus. This will be a busy week for the U.S. calendar with a number key indicators on tap, along with the Beige Book and a plethora of Fedspeak, and as earnings announcements pick up steam. Today's slate is thin, though with just the March Treasury budget, which was delayed from Friday due to a technical glitch.
07:45 EDTSF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals
SF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals the case for keeping rates low for longer weakens, said the dovish voter late Sunday. Williams has been leaning toward a timely hike the past few months as the economy has recovered and he is weighing moving early at a gradual pace rather than acting later, more aggressively. Williams did say that "right now" the U.S. economy still needs accommodative policy, but he forecasts full employment in 6-12 months, and sees risk receding of a return to zero rates as the economy improves. "More importantly, analysts are really thinking about a path, analysts are talking about moving interest rates from zero to a normal level over several years. So even if the economy got some bad shocks, really you are probably just talking about flattening that path out a bit, or maybe raising rates more slowly," he said. To drive his point home, he apparently brandished a T-shirt declaring: "Monetary policy - It's data dependent."
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTFutures quiet ahead of data-filled week
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07:19 EDTNYSSA to hold a forum
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07:14 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTNat'l Foundation for Infectious Diseases to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar put in another bout of outperformance
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06:38 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 13
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06:35 EDTChina's exports sank 15% in March, Reuters reports
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05:58 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
03:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy
FX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy after sinking from a 1.1035 peak last Monday to a 1.0567 low on Friday, which was a big move. Resistance is marked at 1.0683 and 1.0700, and the 20-day moving average is at 1.0806. USD-JPY recouped most of Friday's losses in making a peak of 120.50 before settling around 120.35. Friday's low at 120.05 and the 20-day moving average at 119.97 mark key near-term support levels, below which would swing recent lows near 119.50 and the 50-day moving average at 119.71 into scope. Cable logged a fresh low at 1.4566, and the pound also saw losses against the euro and yen. Sterling's underperformance is reflective of the market starting to discount risks posed by the May-7 general election in the UK. AUD-USD dropped quite sharply, to a one-week low at 0.7580, down one big figure from the intraday high. The move was triggered by a big miss in China trade data, with exports down 15% in March, which sparked speculation of a sub-7.0% outcome in Wednesday's GDP data..
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