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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 27, 2015
17:10 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:17 EDTWeek of 2/7 Redbook to be released at 08:55
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The earnings bubble was burst on a number of company reports by Tuesday as the plunge in energy prices and dollar rally last year finally caught up with several multi-nationals. Combined with heaviness in Europe and uncertainty over Greek leadership choices, along with a poor run of durable goods data, this proved toxic for Wall Street as it dug out of its snow storm. The surge in consumer confidence and new home sales provided some solace, but was largely overlooked. Looming Apple earnings after the close proved a greater inducement to short-covering on stocks that dictated a similar pattern on Treasury yields even as the FOMC began its debate of the state of the economic union.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields couldn't get enough traction
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY pulled up just short of the 118.00 mark
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13:10 EDTU.S. equities rounded off the bottom with an Apple bounce
U.S. equities rounded off the bottom with an Apple bounce in their eyes ahead of its earnings after the close. This followed getting sucked lower with the European close as the Euro Stoxx 50 finished 1.22% lower and Athens 5.0% lower (above session lows). NASDAQ has cut losses to -1.5%. Apple is still down 1.5% near $111.32, but closer to session highs of $112.48 than lows of $109.75. A miss by the tech gadget firm would be devastating to weakened stocks, but that's not expected to be the case as strong demand for the higher margin iPhone 6 series, which should bolster its earnings, though dollar strength could be a catch here too especially for global sales. Other highlights could be on iPad vs Mac sales, the roll-out of Apple Pay and the Apple watch could all factor in. Median estimates are for $53.7 B in revenue vs $45.7 B for the year-ago quarter and forward guidance will of course be key. The bulk of the Dow remains in the red, however, after earnings and durables misses, with the deepest holes dug by Microsoft -8.8%, Caterpillar -7.8% and Intel -4.3%. Note, risk proxy USD-JPY is rebounding as well.
12:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are still in rally mode
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11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded through sell-stops at 1.2390
FX Action: USD-CAD traded through sell-stops at 1.2390, on its way to 1.2380 lows. The pairing has returned over the 1.2400 mark, though with WTI oil prices up over $1 from overnight lows, and approaching $46.00, USD-CAD sellers have returned over the figure. The overnight move to 1.2500 prompted a good amount of position squaring, and given the more than 100 point retracement, analysts look for the pairing to consolidate on either side of 1.2400 near term.
11:25 EDTGundlach of Doubleline scoffed at Fed hiking rates
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11:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling has been reported in the latest wave of activity on the short-dated rate contracts, including the sale of 17k in June 2015 93/93/96 put butterflies and sale of 5k in Short March 86/88 put spreads. Though the underlying deferred contracts are still as much as 9-ticks firmer thanks to the slump in stocks, sources believe this is mostly pre-FOMC position unwinding.
11:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence January surge to a cycle-high 102.9
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10:35 EDTThe 11.6% U.S. new home sales pop
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: a wild ride for the 30-year
Treasury Action: a wild ride for the 30-year culminated in a run to a historic low yield of 2.3289% before bubbling back up over 2.34%, well off session highs of 2.4095%. In the melee after the damp durables print the cash bond yield perversely shot to that session high near 2.41% before plunging back down to 2.34% again, a move rumored to be driven by some HFT (high-frequency) crew or other fast-money type. It especially stood out as there was no parallel move on the 10-year yield at all, just a big downbar on the yield from the 1.80% area to 1.76% at the time, lending credence to the conspiracy theory.
10:30 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI rose to 54.0 in January
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10:30 EDTU.S. new home sales rebounded a hefty 11.6% to 481k in December
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC began its meeting at 10:00 ET.
Fed Policy Outlook: FOMC began its meeting at 10:00 ET. It is not expected to make major changes in its policy statement tomorrow. The Fed made the shift in its December announcement away from "considerable time" toward a "patient" approach in terms of its normalization path and is widely expected to retain that posture. Analysts don't expect the Fed to tip its hand yet on the timing of rate liftoff. Indeed, if the path is truly data dependent, policymakers can't predetermine that outcome, though many have already indicated their best guess is around mid-2015 given the improvement in the economy and labor market. However, the stronger dollar, declining oil prices, deceleration in price pressures, falling inflation expectations, and minimal wage pressures suggest the first rate hike could be delayed into the second half of 2015, as analysts suspect, if not 2016. Note that retaining the "patient" characterization would take an April rate hike off the table (Yellen defined patient as meaning no tightening for the next two meetings.
10:25 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index dipped to 6 in January
U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index dipped to 6 in January from 7 in December, having ranged in 2014 from -5 (March) to 20 (October). The employment component dropped to 5 from 13, but with the workweek doubling to 8 from 4. Wages fell to 3 versus 8. New order volume was flat at 4. The annualized percent change in prices paid dropped to 0.7% from 1.26%. The 6-month shipment index dipped to 30 compared to 38 in December, with employment falling to 18 versus 23, new orders at 29 from 34, with the annualized percent change in prices paid sliding to 1.17% from 1.46%.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields based above lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. consumer confidence jumped to 102.9 in January
U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 102.9 in January from an upwardly revised 93.1 in December (was 92.6). This is the best read since August 2007, and was helped by the gains on Wall Street and lower gas prices. The present situations component surged to 112.6 from 99.9 (revised from 98.6). The expectations component rose to 96.4 from 88.5. The labor market differential improved significantly, basically halved to -5.2 from -10.6 (revised from -10.6).
10:05 EDTU.S. new home sales preview:
U.S. new home sales preview: new home sales are expected to increase 1.6% to a 445k unit pace in December (median 450 M) from 438k in November. Forecast risk is upward, given the improvement in the December starts. preview.
10:00 EDTU.S. consumer confidence preview:
U.S. consumer confidence preview: January Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 97.0 (median 95.1) from 92.6 in December, as sinking gasoline prices, falling rates and rising wealth boost confidence. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk is upward, given firm figures in the first Michigan release. preview.
09:56 EDTMarket down sharply after Microsoft, Caterpillar, durable goods disappoint
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services flash PMI preview:
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09:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: pre-FOMC jockeying
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09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD's 1.2500 print
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09:25 EDTNYSE has invoke "Rule 48" ahead of the open
NYSE has invoke "Rule 48" ahead of the open which provides for "exemptive relief" in the event of extreme market volatility conditions, which allows for relief of suspension of trade temporarily following a market-wide halt. The winter storm could provide some more cover, though it is the earnings blizzard that is causing the chop.
09:20 EDTFed hike forecasts are being revised
Fed hike forecasts are being revised in the wake of this recent round of disappointing earnings and data misses. Among the first is Morgan Stanley, which has reportedly deferred its call to March of 2016 from January 2016. As the energy price and dollar typhoon continues to wrack the markets, others are expected to follow suit and Goldman is expected to not be far behind, according to sources.
09:15 EDTU.S. Case Shiller November 20-city home price index slid 0.22% to 172.94
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. durables report sharply underperformed
The U.S. durables report sharply underperformed, both via big December declines across the orders and equipment data, with and without transportation or defense, and big downward November revisions that left three months of notable underperformance for orders and equipment. Shipments and inventories slightly beat assumptions after restrained factory data in the payroll and industrial production reports, though the data were bad news for the GDP growth outlook on net. Analysts still expect 3.5% Q4 GDP growth, but with a -1% (was +1%) figure for the equipment component. Inventories are poised to add $15 B to Q4 GDP growth, after a $2.6 B subtraction in Q3 that left an already-elevated $82.2 B accumulation rate. Our Q1 GDP estimate remains at 2.5%, though today's data signal downside risk. Analysts expect a flat December factory and overall inventory figure, given today's 0.5% factory durable inventory rise. Analysts assume a 2.2% December factory orders drop with a flat factory shipments figure, given an assumed 1.0% price-led decline for nondurable shipments and orders.
09:12 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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09:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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09:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar's ongoing strength
FX Action: The dollar's ongoing strength, along with sagging commodity prices have begun to show up on corporate income statements. Earnings reports from Proctor and Gamble, Pfizer, and Caterpillar this morning all missed street expectations, with the strong dollar, and soft commodity prices mentioned as major reasons for profit slippage. In addition, while Microsoft and 3M profits met earnings expectations, these companies downgraded guidance for the remainder of the year, due to dollar strength. It is only January, but based on the heavily negative market reaction seen on Wall Street this morning, red flags are being raised concerning equity market performance in the coming months.
08:58 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 1/24 Redbook Store Sales up 3.2% for the year
08:55 EDTU.S. S&P Case Shiller home prices preview:
U.S. S&P Case Shiller home prices preview: home prices are forecast to 0.7% in November (median 0.6%) for the 20-cities index seasonally adjusted from 0.8% in October or fall 0.25% non-seasonally adjusted. For more, see our home prices comparison.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped further
FX Action: The dollar slipped further following the terrible durables report, taking EUR-USD toward 1.1340 from 1.1310, and USD-JPY to intra day lows of 117.55 from 117.75. Equity futures, already in the tank from numerous earnings misses earlier, have dropped even further, indicating nearly a 300 point DJIA negative open. Yields have slid as well, with the 10-year near 1.76%.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities have been routed
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08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders collapsed 3.4% in December
U.S. durable goods orders collapsed 3.4% in December after a downwardly revised 2.1% November decline (revised from -0.9%). Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.8% after a 1.3% drop previously (revised from -0.4%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.6% following a 0.6% November slide (revised from unchanged). Data are much weaker than expected and will extend declines in equities.
08:37 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:15 EDTU.S. durable goods preview:
U.S. durable goods preview: durable goods orders are expected to grow 1.0% in December (median 0.4%) vs -0.9%, with shipments up 0.5% (median 0.4%). Inventories are expected to grow by 0.4% in December, which would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 from last month. Forecast risk is downward, however, as there was a drop in Boeing orders in December and vehicle assemblies in December are expected to slow slightly, to 11.9 M from 12.0 M. preview for more.
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales index fell 0.6% in the week ended January 24
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08:06 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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08:05 EDTU.S. durable goods and new home sales reports
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
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07:56 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
Latin America Investment Conference is being held in Sao Paulo, Brazil on January 27-29.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher, in contrast to small losses in most overseas bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield held narrowly around the 1.20% level. Stocks are weaker and are extending declines of about 1% amid Greek worries and earnings misses from Pfizer, Caterpillar and others. U.K. Q4 GDP growth slowed more than expected to a 0.5% pace, and lending approvals fell to a new cycle low. The Nikkei was the major exception as it posted a 1.7% gain on the weaker yen. Meanwhile, storm "Juno" didn't quite pack the punch expected and travel bans around NYC have been lifted. The FOMC is scheduled to begin its 2-day meeting today, and release its policy statement on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. Meanwhile, the Treasury has rescheduled the 2-year note and 2-year FRN offerings to Wednesday. Today's data calendar is heavy and includes December durable goods orders, January consumer confidence, December new home sales, the January flash Markit services PMI, the November Case Shiller home price index, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. There are also plenty more earnings reports today, including Apple, Yahoo, EA, VMware, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Procter & Gamble, du Pont, AT&T, American Airlines, Coach, and Ethan Allen.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:00 EDTChinese PM says economic growth to stay medium to high, China Daily says
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06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has been pushed back under 1.1300
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 27
Globex S&P futures are recently down 8.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.72%, DAX up 0.44%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $45.19, natural gas up 3.33%, gold at $1279 an ounce, copper down 1.09%.
05:52 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar and main currencies were relative steady
FX Update: The dollar and main currencies were relative steady today, settling after yesterday's EUR-JPY centred whipsaw. EUR-USD traded in the low-to-mid 1.12s, holding comfortably above the 1.1098 low that was seen during the early hours of Asian trade on Monday. The speculative market had gotten itself excessive short of euros during the lead up to and after the ECB QE announcement last week. Analysts still expect the euro will work its way toward parity against the dollar once the quant program kicks in March. SNB's Danthine is interviewed in the Tribune de Genev today, where he confirmed that the prospect of ECB bond buying was seen as a key risk factor when deciding to abandon the franc cap. He still sees the franc as overvalued, but didn't mention what would be an appropriate level, and said that the SNB was still prepared to intervene. USD-JPY dipped back under 118.00, a level which has developed as something of an anchor point in recent weeks. AUD-USD managed to breach above its Monday high in making 0.7948, which is 90 pips up on yesterday's four-year low, before settling around 0.7930.
January 26, 2015
23:40 EDTJapan's services PPI held steady at a 3.6% y/y pace in December
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22:50 EDTPhilippine trade surplus hit $272 M in November
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18:33 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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18:33 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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18:33 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTTreasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries continue to underperform
Treasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries continue to underperform in a curve flattening trade as both the upcoming FOMC decision and supply weigh. Additionally, the very tame inflation outlook and the ECB QE program should continue to underpin the long end. The wi 2-year has cheapened 3 bps today to 0.555%, with the wi 5-year note at 1.365%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is up on 2 bps to 1.82%, though it's traded under 1.80% at times today. The result on the 2s-10s spread has seen the gap narrow to 127 bps versus a 130 bps (using the benchmark 2-year) last week. Any indication from the FOMC that they are still on course for a mid-year rate hike will further compress this spread.
13:51 EDTEurozone leaders reject Greek debt relief demands, Financial Times reports
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13:30 EDTMarket having lackluster session ahead of winter storm
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13:20 EDTS&P lowers Russia foreign currency to BB+ from BBB-; Outlook negative
13:10 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction results were ok
Treasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction results were ok, especially considering the quick rescheduling of this sale from Tuesday due to the impending snowstorm on the East Coast. The offering stopped at 0.02%, right on the screws, though it's a little cheaper than the 0.01% handles seen over the last 4 auctions. Bids totaled $112.3 B for a 3.78 cover, up a bit from 3.74 last week, but in line with the 3.72 average. Indirect bidders took 19.0%, a bit better than the prior 17.1% but off the 22.3% average.
12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a sizable package
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12:40 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on session highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is on session highs, touching $46.35, after finding a floor at $44.30 in early Asia last night. The better than $2 bounce has been attributed to the failure to break below the January 13 low of $44.19, which brought short covering to bear. RBOB gasoline futures meanwhile, are off their highs, trading at $1.34/gallon, and down from highs over 1.3550.
12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has held the 118.00 level
FX Action: USD-JPY has held the 118.00 level through the session, after climbing from 117.26 Asian session lows. Buying overnight was partially attributed to a Bloomberg TV interview with BoJ governor Kuroda from Davos, Switzerland on Friday, where speculation emerged that the Bank could shift its stimulus focus away from JGB's and toward purchasing regional bonds, shares, or even derivatives. If the FX market gets a whiff of new stimulus measures, USD-JPY will trade higher.
11:50 EDTIBM denied it is planning massive layoffs
IBM denied it is planning massive layoffs in a move outlined in a Forbes article earlier, thought to be behind some of the opening weakness in stocks. IBM has been 1.5-2.0% higher on the day, so it appears investors weren't giving it too much credence after all. That said, IBM has been struggling with its earnings and reducing forecasts, in addition to slashing stock buy-backs, as cloud computing and data analytics revenues came up shy of expectations. IBM is trading near $158.26 compared to its $150.50-199.21 52-week range. In its last report it warned that several thousand employees could be impacted. The major stock indices are still in shallow negative territory.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:10 EDTU.S. Treasury shifted its auction schedule due to the storm:
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10:50 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 8.5 points to -4.4 in January
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 8.5 points to -4.4 in January after tumbling 5.9 points to 4.1 in December. It's the first time in 20 months that the index is below zero as it looks as though the big drop in oil prices is weighing significantly on the regional outlook. The index was as high as 12.7 in July (which was the best since September 2013). The employment component dipped to 9.0 from 9.2, though it's still close to the 2 year average. It was 13.1 in June. The workweek edged down to -0.1 from 0.7. Wage dropped to 19.1 from 25.1. New orders declined to -7.7 versus 2.7. Prices collapsed with the paid index falling to -1.7 from 6.9 with prices received at -6.7 from 4.2. The 6-month activity index was crushed, falling to -6.4 from 13.9, with employment at 15.3 from 20.2, prices paid at 10.1 from 12.2, and capital expenditures at 3.0 versus 19.4.
10:35 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index data reported
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10:30 EDTU.S. equities rolled back over after the open
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at trend highs
FX Action: USD-CAD topped out at trend highs of 1.2476 in London dealings, before trading a narrow range into the North American open. The pairing has eased back into 1.2415, with selling coming on the back of better than a $1 rally in WTI crude prices. Good domestic bidding interest reported into the 1.2400 level, and a fading Wall Street however, has seen USD-CAD lifted back over 1.2440.
09:56 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 05:00
09:56 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 10:00
09:56 EDT St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 19:00
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09:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 12:45
09:56 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 02:45
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09:35 EDTMarket opens week lower after Greek vote, ahead of earnings deluge
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09:23 EDTFederal Reserve Board of Governors holds a meeting
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: selling of volatility at the long-end
Treasury Option Action: selling of volatility at the long-end has been in vogue to start the week, according to sources. This has sent implied volatility on March 10s from 6.60% on Friday to 6.40% currently. But there was also a 3k purchase of March 129.5 straddles (vol). On bond futures there was a bearish sale of 5k in March 154/155 call spreads too. March 10-year futures are 5-ticks lower near 129-165 compared to their 130-16 to 129-16 range on Globex.
09:00 EDTEuro interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: upcoming supply could keep a bearish tone in Treasuries
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities are trading lower
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude made two-week low of $44.30
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
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07:29 EDTFutures lower to begin the week
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06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply
FX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply after plumbing an 11-year low at 1.1098 in Asia. The move stalled in the 1.1250-62 region, where renewed selling interest reappeared, despite an above-forecast German Ifo release. A notable short squeeze in EUR-JPY, which interbank and speculative accounts viewed as being ripe for after hefty losses in recent days, had encouraged a similar play in EUR-USD. USD-JPY rebounded over a big figure from the Tokyo low at 117.26, logging a high of 118.39 during the London AM. Greek stocks and bonds are down following the weekend's election, though stocks elsewhere in Europe are higher and contagion remains largely absent in bond markets. USD-CAD clocked a new trend high at 1.2475, concomitantly with a fresh drop in oil prices.
06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply
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06:38 EDTGreek anti-austerity leader to form government, Reuters says
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06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 26
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04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY extended to a high of 118.34
FX Action: USD-JPY extended to a high of 118.34, which is up by over a big figure from the Tokyo low at 117.26. A strong rebound in EUR-JPY after the cross came within 15 pips of the 130.0 level has driven the yen broadly lower. Interbank and speculative accounts have been driving EUR-JPY higher, which was ripe for a short squeeze after hefty losses in recent days. Stops added fuel. USD-JPY itself triggered a wave of stop buying through 118.00-10. Analysts expect USD-JPY will be biased higher in the bigger picture as 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well in Japan. A Bloomberg survey last week found 26 of 33 of economists forecasting new BoJ monetary expansion by the end of October. USD-JPY support is at 117.25, resistance at 118.83-87 and 119.00.
03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar corrected some after posting fresh highs
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January 25, 2015
18:50 EDTGreece's anti-austerity party wins decisively in election, NY Times says
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13:34 EDTLeftist Syriza party in Greece poised to win national election, WSJ says
Exit polls in the Greek national elections show the anti-austerity Syriza party was poised to win a historic victory, says the Wall Street Journal. Reference Link
January 23, 2015
21:27 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
January Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 98.2
21:27 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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21:27 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.0% for the quarter
21:27 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
FOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate will be reported at 14:00 . Current consensus is 0 to 0.25%
21:27 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
December New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 452K
21:27 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
January Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is 4.0
21:27 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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15:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility increases into national elections
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The QE-rally paused on Friday at least in the states after follow-up gains on European stocks and bonds. The ECB virtually guaranteed further yield compression and equity exuberance and the markets gladly complied this week. Risks ahead include the Greek snap national elections on Sunday and the FOMC next week, which may have justified the pause, but neither should provide a lasting impediment. Data included an expected uptick in existing home sales, along with a healthy gain in leading indicators. Yields probed lower early with Europe, then backed up a bit into the close.
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury auctions $90 B in coupons
Treasury Action: Treasury auctions $90 B in coupons and the paper will have to be digested amidst major market crosscurrents including ongoing fallout from the ECB, SNB, and BoC actions, as well as the Greek elections, and ahead of the FOMC decision. There are also geopolitical risks that could impact. When issued yields are lower today in conjunction with the rally across the curve. The wi 2-year note (auctioned Tuesday) is down 2 bps to 0.535%. It was offered at 0.703% in December and garnered only modest results as Fed tightening considerations were impacting. The wi 5-year (Wednesday) is 4 bps lower at 1.35% and compares to the 1.739% award rate from December. In fact, the current yield would be the richest stop since November 2013. That auction was also sloppy and lackluster, and this one could be difficult at this price level and ahead of the Fed. The wi 7-7ear is nearly 5 bps richer at 1.65%, far below the 2.125% in December.
14:14 EDTAverages mixed as trading slows
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14:05 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate option: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate option: bullish positioning included a purchase of 20k in Short June 90/92 call spreads vs an 85 put sale. Underlying futures are still positive, with the March 2015 a half-tick higher at 99.735 and the deferreds still up as much as 12-ticks out the back.
11:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
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11:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a disappointingly small 2.4% December existing home sales bounce alongside a slightly smaller than expected 0.5% December leading indicators gain, though the shortfalls from estimates were modest and the two gains on the month should trim pessimism. Analysts also saw a surprisingly firm December median price rise to $209,500 that capped a five-month seasonal decline from a solid $222,000 June cycle-high, and the price recovery for the housing market is likely more important for economic growth than the sluggish climb in home transactions.
11:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and now finds itself between a rock and a hard place after a flurry of central bank activity that has yielded dramatic stimulus measures. The question now facing the markets is whether the FOMC will stand alone among the G7 in its policy approach as it looks to start normalizing policy. For credibility's sake, nothing has changed significantly on the domestic front since the December meeting to alter the path of rate liftoff later this year, with many on the Committee touting mid-2015 as the start date. Sure inflation has softened further, but policymakers have told us it's transitory phenomena, with several doves even suggesting they could hike rates even with inflation below target as long as it's moving toward the 2% goal. Meanwhile, the economy and the labor market have been performing above expectations, though housing continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, there have been several momentous changes around the world that are leaving the FOMC on relatively tighter footing already. Given these major crosscurrents, analysts suspect the Fed will retain its newly acquired "patient" terminology, and can finally jettison "considerable time." However, analysts don't expect any strong indications of action prior to June. Of importance will be the outlook on inflation and whether there's any mention of concern over further weakness in prices that could suggest a delay to liftoff into Q3 or beyond.
10:30 EDTThe modest 2.4% U.S. existing home sales bounce
The modest 2.4% U.S. existing home sales bounce to a 5.04 M December clip only slightly trimmed the November drop to a downwardly-revised 4.92 (was 4.93) M six-month low from October's 5.25 M one-year high. The median price rose 1.1% to $209,500 in December to cap a five-month drop from a $222,000 June cycle-high. Sales ended 2014 at an anemic pace and inventories remained depressed, though prices continue to climb at a modest pace. Existing home sales are now 6.3% below the 5.380 M recent-peak in July of 2013 -- before the Fed's taper-talk and rising mortgage rates took a toll. Note that for 2014 overall, existing home sales fell 3.1% to a 4.93 M rate despite the presumed underlying recovery. The existing home sales gyration between November and December may have reflected a temporary November weather-hit, though this sales gauge tracks closings and hence weather-hits often show up with a one-month delay. Analysts have cyclical gains of 46% for existing home sales and 37% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 62% for new home sales, 128% for housing starts, and 101% for permits.
10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields held up
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading indicators rose 0.5% to 121.1 in December
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.04 M in December
U.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.04 M in December, a little shy of expectations, after dropping 6.3% to 4.920 M in November (revised down from 4.930 M). Single family sales rebounded 3.5% after a 6.5% drop previously (revised from -6.3%), while condo/coop sales slid 5.0% following a 4.8% November decline. The months' supply of homes declined to 4.4 from 5.1. The median sales price rose to $209,500 versus $207,200 (revised up from $205,300). That's up 6.0% y/y.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in the January
U.S. Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in the January versus 53.9 in December, matching the lowest level since last January. And while this is a 19th consecutive month of expansion, it's a 5th consecutive monthly decline and reflects ongoing loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector. The index was as high as 57.9 in August and as low as 51.0 in October 2012. The employment index improved slightly after falling to 53.0 in December. The factory orders index slid to 54.7 from 55.4, which is also the lowest print in a year.
10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish demand
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09:52 EDTMarket opens lower, turns mixed in early trading
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. The weakness began following a lower than expected reading from the Chicago Fed national activity index, along with a preliminary earnings report from UPS (UPS) warning that it would miss Wall Street Q4 estimates. That sent transportation stocks lower and brought the futures with them. In early trading, however, the Nasdaq has recovered and edged slightly in the green. The Dow is down 57 points, the Nasdaq is up 3 points and the S&P is down 6 points.
09:45 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a big block trade
Euro$ interest rate options: a big block trade involved the bullish sale of 45k in March 95/96 put spreads in block and 5k sold in the pits. In addition, there were bearish purchases of 2k in Blue February 75/77 put 1x2s and 2k in Blue March 75/77 put 1x2s as a package. Also, a bearish 2k purchase of Short June 83/85/87 broken put butterflies. The lead March 2015 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.735, while gains on the deferreds run as high as 12-ticks out the back of the curve. It would appear that the Fed's hike horizon is getting pushed out in the wake of the ECB QE launch.
09:24 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:16 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:16 EDTEnergy Select Sector SPDR volatility elevated as sector near low end of range
Energy Select Sector SPDR overall option implied volatility of 91 compares to its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased under 1.2400
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities posted gains with bulls in Europe
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index fell to -0.05 in December
U.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index fell to -0.05 in December, much weaker than expected. But November was revised higher to 0.92 from 0.73 previously, though the prior 0.31 in October was nudged down to 0.29. The 3-month moving average slipped to 0.39 from November's 0.54 (revised from 0.48) and October's 0.10 (revised from 0.09).
08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest positive open
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08:26 EDTiPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return volatility elevated,oil near five-year low
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08:25 EDTFX Action: The CAD is pulling off a reasonable impression of the euro
FX Action: The CAD is pulling off a reasonable impression of the euro, as it continues to slide against the greenback. The shock BoC rate cut on Wednesday remains the main driver, which has seen USD-CAD touch 1.2455 highs this morning. On top of the easing, WTI oil prices are down testing the $46 level, and further losses there will provide further USD-CAD support. There has been talk of 1.2500 barrier options in place, which will likely be defended should the pairing gain further altitude. The market's major near term target is 1.2715, representing the April, 2009 peak.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is back down
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08:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:52 EDTBrookings Institution holds a discussion on corporate inversions and tax reform
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally, with many markets in Europe and Asia setting fresh record lows in the wake of the ECB's stimulus. The German Bund dropped to 0.355%, while the JGB hit 0.21%; even Greek yields declined ahead of the weekend election. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 8 bps to 1.77%, though it's edged back up to 1.81%. Stocks also continued to rally, while EUR-USD has plunged to 1.1115. In overnight news, Saudi King Abdullah died and will be replaced by his brother Salman. Oil prices are modestly higher. U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.4%. China's flash Markit PMI edged up to 49.8, but remains in contractionary territory. The Eurozone composite PMI improved to 52.2. In the U.S. there is data on December existing home sales, leading indicators, and the flash Markit PMI for January likely to be overlooked. The Chicago Fed's National Activity index and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing reports are also on tap. Earnings reports include McDonald's, GE, Honeywell, and Kimberly-Clark. The focus is also on the Greek elections Sunday and the upcoming FOMC meeting.
07:38 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
A discussion on the research process, fundamental & valuation analysis, with focus on corporate bond analysis and emerging market sovereign debt is being held in Boston on January 23 at 8 am.
07:37 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
MiFID Boston: Trader Instinct Global Trading & Consulting Platform is being held in Boston on January 23.
07:37 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Hong Kong and China Corporate Day is being held in Hong Kong on January 23.
07:19 EDTBass says Europe 'out for parity' between euro and U.S. dollar
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07:15 EDTBass says oil 'could trade at $35'
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07:10 EDTMarket advance appears set to continue
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06:50 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 23
Globex S&P futures are recently up 0.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.06%, DAX up 1.51%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $46.89, natural gas up 3.03%, gold at $1294 an ounce, copper down 1.45%.
06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR weakness continued to be the main show
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05:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled
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02:49 EDTWeek of 2/4 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:49 EDTWeek of 1/26 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
01:45 EDTFX Update: EUR softness, USD firmness continued to be the main theme
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January 22, 2015
22:00 EDTSaudi King Abdullah's demise sent a tremor through the oil market
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21:05 EDTChina manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) improved to 49.8 in January
China manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) improved to 49.8 in January on a preliminary basis ("flash") from a final 49.6 in December. The slight improvement was contrary to projections for some erosion, and could reflect the impact of recent government stimulus measures. Of course, the index remains consistent with a slowing manufacturing sector, just at a slower rate.
20:39 EDTJanuary Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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16:52 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:52 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:52 EDTWeek of 1/30 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:52 EDTWeek of 2/1 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
16:52 EDTWeek of 1/31 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: ECB's Draghi finally shouldered his QE bazooka and pulled the trigger on Thursday after shooting some flak out into the media the day prior that lowered expections to 50 B euro/month in bond purchases compared to the 60 B euro/month target confirmed today. Well played, Mario - the news simultaneously bolstered European stocks and peripherals outperformed and even core bonds jumped on the bandwagen. All else was overshadowed by this historic event, though some reckon that only a program thrice the size of the 1 tln euro plan will achieve the ECB's stated inflation target of 2% in the stated time frame.
14:20 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI, due Friday, to slow to a 1.6% y/y rate in December (median same at 1.6%) from the 2.0% clip in November. CPI is seen falling 0.5% m/m in December (median -0.6%) after the 0.4% drop in November. Another hefty drop in gasoline prices should drive month comparable CPI lower. The BoC's core CPI index is seen falling 0.4% m/m in December, similar to the action seen in past months of December. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate (median same at 2.2%), up from the 2.1% clip in November but below the 2.3% seen in October. That would, of course, leave the measure above the BoC's 2.0% midpoint. However, an unwinding of transitory factors and slower GDP growth will take it back below 2% this year, providing ample scope for Poloz to make good on his pledge to do more (easing) if conditions deteriorate further.
14:20 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
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14:10 EDTBill Gross of Janus: "German 5yr now yields nothing,"
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13:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has crossed the 1.2400 mark
FX Action: USD-CAD has crossed the 1.2400 mark for the first time since April of 2009. The high way back then was 1.2715, which becomes the next major upside target. A broadly strong USD along with softer oil prices saw the figure give way, though the breach of the level has prompted some position squaring.
13:35 EDTAverages higher in broad based advance
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13:23 EDTProShares UltraShort Euro volatility elevated as Euro weakens
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $15 B 10-year TIPS auction was better than expected
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13:01 EDTCBOE Euro Currency Volatility Index-EVZ down 14.8% to 11.62
CBOE Euro Currency Volatility Index-EVZ down 14.8% to 11.62; 50 day-moving average is 9.76.
13:00 EDTU.S. equity gains extended after the strong finish in Europe
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12:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered from its 117.25 low
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12:13 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
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12:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning came in the form of a purchase of 5k in March 127 puts on 10-year futures earlier, along with some demand for March 126.5 puts as well. March 10s are just 4-ticks lower near 129-10 after rebounding from 128-235 lows to 129-27 highs in the wake of the ECB QEternity.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings
Treasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings, down $1 B versus the December total as the size of the 2-year was trimmed to $26 B versus $27 B previously. So, next week's auctions will include the aforementioned 2-year (Tuesday), a $35 B 5-year (Wednesday), and a $29 B 7-year (Thursday). The debt managers also announced a new $15 B 2-year FRN (Tuesday) and an unchanged $48 B 3- and 6-month bill offering (Monday).
11:02 EDTCrude inventories for week of January 16
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10:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded to a $46.91 low
Energy Action: NYMEX crude traded to a $46.91 low, after peaking over $49 into the N.Y. open. The decline is attributed to this morning's dollar rally, which occurred following the ECB QE announcement. Sources report fund buying interest under $47 now, which could provide near term support.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending January 16
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed is expected to reiterates its "patient" approach
Fed Policy Outlook: the Fed is expected to reiterates its "patient" approach to rate normalization in its statement (Wednesday), indicative of an unchanged stance for now. Remember Yellen said in her December press conference that "patient" means no rate hikes "for at least the next couple of meetings." The markets would surely re-price for potential rate liftoff by mid-2015, with some traders likely taking out insurance for an April move as well. Given the ECB's action today, as well as easing moves out of the SNB, the BoC, Denmark, Turkey, India, and others (and the dovish shift from the BoE), it's unlikely the FOMC would want to buck the accommodative trend anytime soon, especially with signs of slowing in global growth and lack of inflationary pressures. It wouldn't be a surprise, either, if the Fed removed "considerable time" since "patient" for all intents and purposes replaced it.
09:55 EDTTreasury Action: the rising tide for bonds from the ECB's QE announcement
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09:35 EDTECB program pushes U.S. equities higher
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09:22 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion on President Obama's India trip
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.2386
FX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.2386 highs, from pre-Draghi levels of 1.2325. The USD moved broadly higher following the QE announcement, though USD-CAD was likely impacted by the concurrent slide in oil prices. WTI fell nearly $1.00, to $4750 after EUR-USD slide to session lows. Initial USD-CAD resistance is seen at 1.2300, though more stops are likely lurking above.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields are cascading lower
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.8% to 216.9 in November
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities picked up a head of steam
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08:55 EDTThe 10k U.S. initial claims drop to 307k
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar zigged and zagged a bit
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08:48 EDTSEC to hold a meeting
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed higher
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08:44 EDTDraghi says ECB to continue buying until Sept. 2016
08:42 EDTECB to buy EUR 60B a month of assets
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 10k to 307k in the week ended January 17
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08:35 EDTFutures pointing to a higher open following claims data
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08:30 EDTU.S. equities are in rally mode
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08:24 EDTBofA/Merrill European economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief European Economist Moec and Head of European Credit Strategy Martin discuss the European Central Bank's meeting announcements, as well as discuss if ECB President Draghi's plan is bold enough together with cross asset implications on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 23 at 9 am.
08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to four-session highs
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota holds annual economic dinner meeting
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:55 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion on Chinese economic reform
Discussion of China's economic reform is being held in Washington, D.C. on January 22 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:52 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:48 EDTThe House Energy & Commerce Committee holds a hearing
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07:47 EDTECB leaves key rate unchanged, says further measures to be announced
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07:45 EDTFERC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FERC Washington, D.C. offices on January 22 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries continued to retreat overnight
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: FX trade was fairly light overnight, as the market girded ahead of this morning's ECB policy announcement. EUR-USD reclaimed the 1.16 handle, as USD-JPY eased into 117.50. Focus of course will be on the ECB, and the likely kick off of QE. The amount of QR involved, and the types of securities to be bought will be the key to market reaction. Meanwhile, U.S. data includes weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EST, November FHFA home prices at 9:00 EST, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 11:00 EST.
07:38 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi to hold a press conference
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07:37 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a forum
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07:32 EDTFDA-CDER Anti-Infective Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses Astellas Pharma Global Development's New Drug Applications (NDAs) 207-500 and 207-501, isavuconazonium sulfate capsules and isavuconazonium sulfate for injection respectively, for the proposed indications of treatment of invasive aspergillosis and mucormycosis in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on January 22 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a briefing
BioBriefing for the Non-Scientist gives a high level overview of the key science concepts required for understanding basic biotechnology applications, discussion of biologic drugs, personalized medicine and drug discovery development in Washing, D.C. on January 22.
07:16 EDTFutures higher ahead of European Central Bank statement
Stock futures are higher as the market prepares for the ECB's statement which is expected to be issued at 7:45 am ET. The ECB is expected to announce a quantitative easing program. However, there are still questions about the size of the program, and whether it will be large enough to satisfy the market. Investors will also be examining reports on U.S. housing prices and energy inventories.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded moderately softer
FX Update: The dollar traded moderately softer with EUR-USD lifting to the 1.1630 area as the ECB announcement drew closer and USD-JPY giving back Tokyo-session gains above 118.00, ebbing back to the 117.60-70 area. AUD-USD recovered the 0.81 handle, rebounding from a one-week low at 0.8063 that was seen during the Sydney session. The Jan-6 four-year low at 0.8033 was left untroubled, and the lack of follow-through selling prompted some weaker shorts to cover. The surprise BoC easing yesterday, coupled with the unexpected dovish turn by the two former hawkish dissenters at the BoE, prompted heightened speculation that the RBA will follow suit at its upcoming policy review on Fed-3. USD-CAD, meanwhile, settled in the lower 1.23s after yesterday surging nearly three big figures to 1.2394 following the BoC move on Wednesday.
05:53 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 22
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03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled near 1.2350
FX Action: USD-CAD has settled near 1.2350 after surging nearly three big figures to 1.2394 following yesterday's unexpected BoC rate cut, with the central bank calling it "insurance" against downside risk to lower oil prices, which are "unambiguously negative" for the Canadian economy. Ahead of the announcement, a fresh bout of oil price weakness had been seen following the IMF's global growth downgrade on Tuesday. Low oil prices are bad for the Canadian dollar as it erodes Canada's terms of trade, and some energy analysts are expecting NYMEX oil prices to trade another 10% lower before basing, which would see the 2009 low in NYMEX crude at $40.68 breached. USD-CAD's August 2009 high at 1.3063 provides a big-picture target.
01:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer against the yen and Aussie
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January 21, 2015
17:25 EDTWeek of 1/30 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:25 EDTWeek of 1/30 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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16:10 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims for the week of January 17th will be released Thursday and should reveal a headline figure of 300k (median 300k) following last week's surprise bounce to 316k. The early month climb in claims has left January poised for a weaker average of 300k from 291k in December.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:03 EDTAverages near unchanged in muted trading day
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13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put buying
Treasury Option Action: bearish put buying accompanied the earlier sell-off, including the purchase of 1.5k in March 127.5 puts on 10-year futures. March 10s are 11-ticks lower near 129-165, having roamed from 130-045 highs to lows of 129-14 after the accumulation of dovishness from the BoE, ECB and BoC, which lit bullish fuse under stocks in those respective regions.
13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY struggled some earlier
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12:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a growing issue calendar
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12:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields have ramped higher
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12:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more action
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12:05 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD buy-stops didn't stay intact for long
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has found good support
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11:16 EDTProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF volatility elevated
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD gapped to 1.2289 highs
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10:09 EDTDeutsche Bank finance analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss their thoughts and trades into the European Central Bank (ECB) on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 21 at 10:30 am.
10:03 EDTBank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 0.75%
The Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 0.75%. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1% and the deposit rate is 0.5%. This decision is in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada. Inflation has remained close to the 2% target in recent quarters. Core inflation has been temporarily boosted by sector-specific factors and the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, which are offsetting disinflationary pressures from slack in the economy and competition in the retail sector. Total CPI inflation is starting to reflect the fall in oil prices, the bank noted.
09:56 EDTMarket searching for direction in early trading
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09:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped higher after the open
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09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed flows
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09:38 EDTECB said to weigh bond buying program of EUR 50B per month, Bloomberg reports
The ECB quantitative easing program is said to be considered to run at EUR 50B per month through 2016, according to Bloomberg.
09:25 EDTBank of Canada Governor Poloz holds a news conference
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09:25 EDTThe 4.4% December U.S. housing starts bounce
The 4.4% December U.S. housing starts bounce to a 1.089 M clip beat estimates, after upward October and November revisions, alongside a 6.3% bounce in completions that mostly reversed the October-November drop. Yet, analysts also saw a 1.39% permits decline to a surprisingly lean 1.032 M pace that trimmed prospects for starts in January. A hefty 2.3% December pop in starts under construction slightly lifted the balance of risks for Q4 GDP, were analysts still expect 3.5% growth. The weather improved sharply in December after harsh weather in November as was evident in the big utility gyration in the last industrial production report that included a 7.3% December plunge after a 4.2% November surge though regional starts data slow little evidence. Beyond weather, the single-digit pace of recovery in the 2014 housing market was disappointing on net. Starts and permits are both poised for restrained Q1 rates in the 1.065 M area, versus prior respective rates of 1.075 M and 1.059 M in Q4 and a 1.030 M rate for both in Q3.
09:16 EDTCFA Society of Atlanta to hold annual forecasting event
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09:15 EDTU.S. Redbook reported chain store sales slid 3.5% for the month-to-date
U.S. Redbook reported chain store sales slid 3.5% for the month-to-date ending January 17, from a 3.2% decline previously. Compared to the same period last year, sales slowed a bit to 3.4% y/y versus 3.8% y/y. According to the Goldman Sachs/Retail Economist (formerly known as the ICSC index), sales fell 1.3% in the week ended January 17 after a 2.1% decline previously. It's a third straight monthly decline for this measure. The post-holiday shopping season is starting off with a thud as discounting weighs a bit on the bottom line. Compared to last year, however, the Retail Economist sales index rose at a 3.4% y/y rate versus the prior 2.8% y/y clip, though not as fast as the 3.9% y/y pace for the January 3 week.
09:08 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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09:08 EDTFinancial Stability Oversight Council to hold a meeting
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09:05 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on the FCC
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities rolled over lower after an IBM miss
U.S. equities rolled over lower after an IBM miss and amid caution emerging ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow, which, if history is any future guide, could come up shy of market expectations on full-blown QE (ECB's Nowotny downplayed). Housing starts rose 4.4% in December, perhaps beginning to feel the benefit of lower global rates, though permits were lower. This didn't thrill stocks and the Dow is 65-points lower, S&P fell 5-points and NASDAQ is off 7-points in pre-market action. The Euro Stoxx 50 is above earlier lows, but still 0.4% lower and the Swiss Market Index is 2% lower after more mixed trade in Asia with the Japan N-225 0.49% lower and the Shanghai Comp 4.7% higher. IBM shed 2.5% after coming up shy of expectations, while Qualcomm sank 2.8% after reports Samsung may not use its chips in its next Smartphone. That said, Netflix surged 18% on news of increased subscriber growth.
09:04 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:02 EDTCFA Society of Washington, D.C. to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:01 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold luncheon meeting
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar didn't do much of anything
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows perversely
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 4.4% to 1.089 M in December
U.S. housing starts rebounded 4.4% to 1.089 M in December after falling 4.5% to 1.043 in November (revised from 1.028 M; October's prior 1.045 M pace was revised to 1.092 M). Building permits dropped another 1.9% to 1.032 M from a revised 1.052 M (was 1.035 M). Single family starts increased 7.2% following a 5.2% December drop (revised from -5.4%), while multifamily starts dipped 0.8% after a 3.2% decline previously (revised from a 6.7% gain). Housing completions were up 6.3% after declines of 4.7% in November (revised from 6.4%) and 3.7% in October (revised from 2.9%).
08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has retreated from Tuesday's trend high
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08:34 EDTFutures remain lower ahead of open
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08:25 EDTJapan is a cautionary tale for the Fed
Japan is a cautionary tale for the Fed so says WSJ's Hilsenrath in the Grand Central blog after telling us on Monday that a mid-2015 is still a virtual lock. Prematurely hiking rates in 2006, only to have to knock them back down again following the financial crisis, which would be the "nightmare scenario" for the Fed. "Federal Reserve officials say it would be a disaster if they attempt to raise rates and then are forced to push them back down to zero. It is one reason why many officials want to be patient and certain the U.S. economy is fully on the mend before the central bank moves toward raising rates later this year. Yes, yes, yes, there are many differences between Japan’s economy, financial system and central bank and the U.S. Analysts have heard this many times. Still, Japan's experience is a reminder that any number of factors - bad luck, global economic shocks, nagging headwinds to the domestic economy, the drags of an aging population -- could derail the Fed's hopeful plans. Perhaps this is one reason why investors - who have pushed long-term U.S. rates down in recent weeks and whose futures market rate expectations are lower than the Fed's published forecasts - are so skeptical that U.S. rates are anywhere near returning to normal."
08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:01 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
The Health Subcommittee holds a two day hearing entitled, "A Permanent Solution to Sustainable Growth Rate" with Alice Rivlin Director at the Brookings Institute and former U.S. Senator, Joseph Lieberman on January 21 at 10:15 am. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady
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07:59 EDTThe FDIC to hold a Board of Directors Meeting
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07:53 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:52 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
dbAccess CEEMEA Conference is being held in London, England on January 21-23.
07:51 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a tour
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07:50 EDTWorld Economic Forum to hold annual meeting
Annual Meeting 2015 is being held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland on January 21-24.
07:49 EDTWells Fargo to hold a symposium
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07:45 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 14.2%
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar traded on a weaker footing overnight, though into the ECB meeting on Thursday, EUR-USD did not stray far from Tuesday's closing levels. USD-JPT pulled back on the BoJ's lack of policy action, though USD-CAD remained form into this morning's BoC announcement. Equity futures and yields are lower this morning, which will likely keep the USD on the defensive, while December housing starts provide the only calendar entry this morning.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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07:21 EDTMarket will try to improve on yesterday’s advance
U.S. equity futures are slightly lower this morning as the market tries to build on yesterday 's slight advance Earnings season is in full swing, and the number of companies reporting their results will accelerate for the rest of the week. The president’s State of the Union speech did little to help the equity market, but gold prices are continuing to rebound and are rising 0.3% in early trading. Equity investors will be watching data on housing starts and building permits, which are due out at 8:30 am ET.
07:00 EDTFX Update:
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06:44 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 21
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04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered above 117.80
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04:00 EDTBoJ's Kuroda reaffirmed intention to achieve the 2% CPI target
BoJ's Kuroda reaffirmed intention to achieve the 2% CPI target during his post-meeting press conference, "regardless of whether commodity prices rise or fall" and that "on the assumption that oil prices will flatten out at current levels and rise moderately ahead, the effect of the oil price decline will ease. If so, analysts expect consumer inflation to reach 2 percent in a period centred on fiscal 2015." Kuroda also said that "some board members held a more cautious view on the price outlook," and that the easing in October was "because crude oil price falls and the pain from a sales tax hike in April." So, no hints that there may be a further expansion in policy, which caused the yen to pop higher. A Bloomberg survey found 26 of 33 of economists forecast fresh BoJ monetary expansion by the end of October.
01:50 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY losses after the BoJ statement led broader dollar losses
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00:30 EDTBoJ kept policy unchanged
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January 20, 2015
16:48 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:48 EDTWeek of 1/31 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:10 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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13:55 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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13:50 EDTU.S. equities have rebounded from lows
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13:36 EDTMarket off worst levels, turns mixed as Nasdaq edges into green
The major equity indices, which have spent most of the day in negative territory since falling shortly after the open, are now mixed, with the Nasdaq just barely in the green. The Dow is the biggest loser, down more than 0.4%, amid pressure from shares of Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), which is lower following its quarterly earnings report. Declining issues are ahead of advancers by more than 2:1, WTI crude oil prices were down about 4% near 1 pm ET, and while gold was up more than 1.3%.
13:30 EDTTreasury Action: path of least resistance in yields is to the south side
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13:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD came close to reaching its upside target
FX Action: USD-CAD came close to reaching its upside target of 1.2131, which represents the February 9, 2009 weekly low. The pairing posted 1.2112 highs earlier, and has stayed above 1.2070 since first breaching the 1.21 handle. Oil prices have moved off their lows, and back over $47, though the risk backdrop remain CAD negative. In addition, expectations for a more dovish sounding BoC tomorrow, could keep USD-CAD supported for now.
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: the curve continues to flatten
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid thanks to the rally across the curve today. The longer dated tranche outperformed. The $24 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.075%, through the 0.08% at the bid deadline and is 1 bp richer than last week's 0.085% award rate. There were $99.6 B in bids for a 4.18 cover, not quite as high as the 4.22 previously, but better than the 4.05 average. Indirect bidders accepted 32.6% versus 46.1% previously and the 36.0% average. The $24 B 3-month bill was awarded at 0.025%, right on the screws and the same as last week's 0.025%. It ties the lowest stop since November 24. Bids totaled $103.1 B for a 4.31 cover, a little better than the 4.25 last week but a little below the 4.36 average. Indirect bidders took 13.5%, less than the prior 22.8%, and the 24.6% average.
11:40 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility rebounded from lows under 20.0
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Wednesday
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11:06 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:52 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF February call option implied volatility is at 100, March is at 78, April is at 76; compared to its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement into national elections.
10:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: five issuers are lined up today
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields drifted lower
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10:15 EDTFed Governor Powell sees further regulatory action
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell to 57 in January
U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell to 57 in January after holding steady at 58 in December (revised up from 57). The 59 print in September was the highest since late 2005. The current single family sales index was steady at 62 (revised up from 61). But the future index dropped 4 points to 60 from 64 (revised down from 65). The index of prospective buyer traffic also slipped 2 points to 44 in January from December's 46 (revised from 45). The report doesn't alter views on the housing market where the expansion remains sluggish.
10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has come off its highs
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish put selling
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09:55 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Faces Downside January Risk:
U.S. Producer Sentiment Faces Downside January Risk: Early month measures of U.S. producer sentiment lent a modest downside bias to the outlook for later month releases, as the dramatic Philly Fed plunge trumped the more modest gains in the Empire State components for the month. The ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys appears likely to sustain it's December drop to 53, following the five-month run of 56 cycle-high readings evident since last July's big vehicle assembly rate pop.
09:46 EDTMarket opens higher despite IMF cutting world growth forecasts
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09:40 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the HMI is forecast to hold steady at 57 in January (median 58) from 57 in December. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD continues to press higher
FX Action: USD-CAD continues to press higher, trading into 1.2040 after the combination of weak Canadian manufacturing data, and further oil price losses. WTI crude traded under $46.70, down from overnight highs of $48.21. USD-CAD buy stops are expected to kick in at 1.2050.
09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish put buying
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08:57 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide their weekly Industrials outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 20 at 11 am.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched session highs
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08:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $47.65
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $47.65, down from Friday's close at $48.69, though up from overnight lows of $47.45. The IMF downgrade of global 2015 likely put some pressure on the contract, though few will be turning bullish until prices are able to stabilize over $50.00. RBOB gasoline futures are steady over $1.34/gallon, while average U.S. retail gasoline prices dropped another penny/gallon from Monday, and 6 cents over the past week, now at $2.05/gallon, according to AAA. Front month natural gas futures have receded under $2.94/M BTU, down from $3.04 highs.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are pointing higher with global stocks
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08:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is still on course to hike rates later this year
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08:25 EDTCanadian Manufacturing Shipments Preview:
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08:20 EDTFedspeak is due from Governor Powell
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting bifurcated results
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting bifurcated results with the long end posting small gains and the front end slightly lower. The 10-year yield is at 1.82%, after having hit a low of 1.788% overnight. The 2-year yield is at 0.46%. Core sovereign yields are higher. Equities are in rally mode after better than expected Chinese GDP growth, up 7.3%, and a pick up in German investor confidence. Meanwhile, the IMF followed the World Bank's action last week in cutting global growth estimates. In the U.S. today the calendar is light with just the NAHB housing market index for January. Earnings reports will be monitored with Morgan Stanley, IBM, J&J, Halliburton, General Dynamics, Freeport-McMoRan, Delta, Coach, and Netflix.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mixed overnight, making headway against the yen, while losing ground to the euro. Better risk taking levels helped USD-JPY, as improved German ZEW data, and short covering into the ECB meeting later this week came to EUR-USD's rescue. USD-CAD is within sight of its trend highs of 1.2046, as oil prices head lower again, and as the market gears up for what could be a dovish BoC policy statement on Wednesday. Aside from the NAHB housing market index at 10:00 EST, the calendar is empty this morning.
07:33 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:31 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:28 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Turkish Equity 1-1 Conference is being held in London, England on January 19-20.
07:27 EDTBarclays to hold a forum
Mandiri Investment Forum - Indonesia: Pushing the Structural Reform is being held in Indonesia on January 20-21.
07:26 EDTFed still on track to raise rates later in year, WSJ says
With the Federal Reserve set to begin a self-imposed pre-meeting blackout today as it prepares for a policy meeting later this month, and with the ECB apparently ready to begin its own quantitative easing program of bond buying, Federal Reserve officials appear set to stay on track to begin raising short-term interest rates later this year, according to The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone. Reference Link
07:25 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:14 EDTFutures suggest positive open ahead of State of the Union speech
U.S. equity futures are higher this morning on the heels of better than expected GDP data out of China. The move higher comes despite reduced forecasts from the IMF , which cut its 2015 global growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.8%. There is little for investors to key in on today. All eyes will be on the President’s State of the Union address tonight. The lone economic report scheduled to be released today is the NAHB Housing Market Index, which is due out at 10:00 am ET.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mixed
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06:45 EDTIMF cuts global growth forecast
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06:37 EDTChina's Q4 growth beat expectations, Reuters says
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06:32 EDTSPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF volatility elevated into ECB
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 20
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05:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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05:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high
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04:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high
FX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high in Tokyo trade at 118.53. Spot is presently 118.22 bid, with an earlier dip leaving a low at 117.98. The 50-day moving average at 118.64 is in scope. A 2% gain in the Nikkei stock index conducive for yen losses today, while market narratives highlighted 'gotobi' corporate demand for USD-JPY, stop buying, and the approach of Wednesday's BoJ policy announcement. The Reuters Tankan survey of Japanese businesses also saw the manufacturers index dip to +9 in January, down from +10 in December. Analysts expect USD-JPY to remain biased higher in the bigger picture as 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well in Japan. Support is at 117.98-118.00, resistance at 118.43-50.
02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer
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January 19, 2015
21:32 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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21:32 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
21:32 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:50 EDTAsia Market Outlook: Attention turns to China's Q4 GDP
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14:55 EDTCanadian manufacturing shipments preview
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14:25 EDTThe Bank of Japan will meet Tuesday and Wednesday
The Bank of Japan will meet Tuesday and Wednesday, though no shift in policy is anticipated. Much of the focus has been on the plunge in oil and the impact that will have on the BoJ's inflation forecast. Against that backdrop, there has been speculation that the Bank will expand loan schemes. However, it is not clear that it will engage in additional stimulus, mindful that the drop in oil will support the economy and that the drag from the tax increase will fade. Indeed, there has been speculation that the JPY could rebound further should the BoJ extend the horizon for its 2% inflation target. page.
12:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar has traded moderately lower
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is trading steadily
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower
FX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower in quiet trade ahead of BoJ and ECB policy decisions this week, the upcoming election in Greece, and with U.S. markets set to be closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1600 after capping out at 1.1628. The rebound was fuelled by short covering and corporate demand, coming after the euro logged a fresh nine-year lows of 1.1460 on Friday. EUR-CHF trade remained choppy and somewhat erratic, roughly centred on 1.000, after the SNB unexpectedly abandoned the franc cap last week. USD-CAD consolidated in the mid-119s after logging a fresh trend high on Friday at 1.2046. Chinese equity markets dropped sharply today, with the Shanghai Composite closing 7.7% for the worse, the biggest one-day falls since June 2008, prompted by new regulations aimed at reining in margin lending. This caused AUD-USD to dip to a low of 0.8196, though the pair remained well within Friday's range.
06:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower
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03:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower today in light trade
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January 18, 2015
13:57 EDTGreece's antiausterity Syriza party widens lead in opinion poll, WSJ says
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January 17, 2015
09:44 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
December Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.050M
09:44 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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09:44 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
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09:44 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
December Housing Starts Permits will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.060M
09:44 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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09:44 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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January 16, 2015
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTDecember Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTNovember Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTOctober Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTSeptember Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTAugust Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTJuly Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDTJune Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTMay Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTApril Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTMarch Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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18:21 EDTFebruary Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
18:21 EDT Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00
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17:00 EDTMoody's downgrades Russia bond rating to Baa3 from Baa2
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16:30 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $6.3 B in net U.S. assets
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15:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:20 EDTAction Alert: earnings reports will complicate the landscape next week
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14:45 EDTMore from Bullard said the SNB's cap was "untenable"
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14:08 EDTMarket moves to session highs
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13:40 EDTFed dove Bullard: the FOMC has kept rates low
Fed dove Bullard: the FOMC has kept rates low despite better news on the real economy and has not shifted market expectations toward an earlier and higher rate policy path, raising questions about the nature of the Fed's reaction function to incoming data. One possible explanation for keeping accommodative policy in place is low inflation readings, after the Fed overestimated inflation in 2013-14 and missed the large decline in unemployment (So, trust us now; analysts haven't gotten it right in years). That said, he doesn't view the level of inflation as low enought to justify a policy rate of zero. This is consistent with past equivocal remarks by the non-voter.
13:25 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:11 EDTNY Post confirms hacking of Twitter feed
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12:55 EDTFed policy outlook: Fed rate liftoff in June is being priced out
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12:40 EDTA Treasury dealer survey asked about the plunge in break-even rates
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11:45 EDTSF Fed dove Williams sees 2015 as an interesting year
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11:05 EDTFed's Kocherlakota said the FOMC will weigh the SNB impact on the U.S.
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11:00 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude ran up to $48.76
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: covered call buyer is back
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10:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mega package recap
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10:28 EDTBofA/Merrill European economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief European Economist Moec, along with Head of EMEA and APAC Rates Research Preusser and Head of G10 FX Strategy Europe Vamvakidis, discuss their expectations and outcome implications, ahead of the January 25th Greek Elections and the January 22nd European Central Bank Meeting, on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 21 at 10 am.
10:20 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb to a 98.2 new cycle-high
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied near highs
Treasury Action: yields steadied near highs following the jump in Jan consumer sentiment, which failed to impress stocks much though they are still fimer in early trade and well up from overnight lows. The T-note yield snapped higher from 1.70% lows earlier and then topped out near 1.775% before consolidating. That just leaves the TIC inflows report near the close and Fedspeak from move doves later.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar matched session lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. preliminary consumer confidence jumped to 98.2 in January
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The first release on January Michigan Sentiment may reveal a headline increase to 94.0 (median 93.5) from 93.6 in Michigan. This comes alongside a gain in the IBD/TIPP poll for the month to 48.5 form 48.4 and the RBC-CASH Index holding steady at 53.3.
09:51 EDTMarket opens lower, bounces near flatline in early trade
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09:50 EDTThe 0.1% U.S. industrial production down-tick
The 0.1% U.S. industrial production down-tick in December followed only a tiny net-downward back revision to leave a stronger than expected report overall, thanks to surprising 2.2% mining rise and a 0.3% manufacturing gain that mostly offset a huge 7.3% utility plunge. The big 1.3% utility-led November pop was unrevised, following a flat (was 0.1%) October figure, and a 0.9% September bounce that was also led by a utility up-swing. Capacity utilization fell to 79.7% from an 80.0% (was 80.1%) cycle-high in November. Industrial production growth should slow to 4% in Q1 after a utility-boosted 5.6% clip in Q4, a 4.1% (was 4.0%) rate in Q3, and a 5.7% pace in Q2. Analysts've seen 1%-9% quarterly rates since the start of the expansion. Analysts've seen a factory outperformance of GDP through this expansion, and particularly in recent quarters. Analysts saw industrial production growth of 4.3% in 2014 after slower growth of 2.9% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2012. Analysts expect a restrained 2.5% growth rate for GDP in 2014 that slightly exceeds prior rates of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.
09:45 EDTTreasury Action: it will be a shaky two weeks fraught with high event risk
Treasury Action: it will be a shaky two weeks fraught with high event risk heading into month-end that should maintain a bullish skew in Treasuries, especially in the wake of the massive dislocations from the SNB's shocker. First up is the ECB meeting on January 22, and it's not clear Draghi and company can do enough to not disappoint. That will be followed by the Greek elections on January 25. Next up will be the FOMC announcement on January 28. Much of the support from Treasuries should be a function of safe haven flows. However, Fed rate liftoff in June is being priced out, with many forecasters taking out a hike this year. Note too that though widely overlooked in yesterday's chaos, there were a number of other central bank surprises that suggest a global bias toward central bank easing, especially among emerging markets, amid fears of cooling growth. India, Egypt, and Peru also surprised with rate cuts of between 25 bps and 50 bps.
09:44 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:32 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain above lows
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production dipped 0.1% in December
U.S. industrial production dipped 0.1% in December, which brought capacity utilization down to 79.7%. The 1.3% spike in November production was not revised, but the prior 80.1% print on capacity was bumped to 80.0%. Manufacturing production edged up 0.3% last month after a revised 1.3% November surge (was 1.1%). Motor vehicle and parts production fell 0.9% after a 5.5% November surge (revised from 5.1%) that followed three months of sharp declines. Machinery production slid 0.2%. Computer and electronics were up 1.2%. Utilities plunbed 7.3% following a 4.2% pop (revised from 5.1%). Mining was up 2.2% after sliding 0.3% previously (revised from -0.1%). Data are a little weaker than forecast, though coincide with the growing fear of cooling growth.
09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted new trend highs
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09:05 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: The December release on industrial production should show a 0.4% (median -0.1%) headline decline. This comes on the heels of a 1.3% surge in November. Analysts expect capacity utilization to fall to 79.6% from 80.1% in November.
09:05 EDTFed dove Kocherlakota reiterated worries the Fed is losing credibility
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09:05 EDTThe 0.4% December U.S. CPI headline drop
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities trimmed deeper overnight losses
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially slipped
FX Action: The dollar initially slipped some after the cooler CPI data, though losses were short lived. EIR-USD moved to near 1.1610 from 1.1590 before easing into 1.1580, as USD-JPY dipped to 116.35 before bouncing toward 116.75. Yields edged lower before stabilizing, while equity futures pared losses.
08:45 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.4% in December with the core rate unchanged
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained near lows
Treasury Action: yields remained near lows following the very weak headline CPI decline (lowest since December 2008), though it was in line with forecasts and core came in unchanged, just below the 0.1% consensus. Huge drops in energy -4.7% and gasoline -9.4% featured as expected. The T-note yield initially slumped to test 1.70% before rebounding to 1.73% compared to overnight highs near 1.75%. The 2s-10s spread stretched to +127 bp before the elastic snapped back to +130 bp.
08:43 EDTThe ABA's Economic Advisory Committee holds a press conference
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08:35 EDTFutures continue to suggest another lower open
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08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from a trio of doves
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered from overnight lows
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08:20 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: December CPI should reveal a -0.2% (median 0.4%) headline decline as falling oil prices continue to weigh on the report. Analysts expect the core to be up 0.1% for the month. This comes on the heels of a -0.3% headline in November with a 0.1% core increase. December's PPI report revealed a 0.3% headline decline but with a 0.3% increase for the core.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower, in contrast to gains in Asian and European sovereigns as the SNB's currency actions continue to reverberate. Trading volume remained heavy. The 2-year Treasury yield has edged up to 0.43%, while the 10-year is at 1.72%. There's been some back-up in Greek rates on reports some banks are seeking for Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Equities are mixed with European bourses mostly in the green, while Asian shares and U.S. equity futures are lower. The dollar was mostly firmer. Not surprisingly, many economists are cutting Swiss growth forecasts. As for overnight data, Eurozone HICP was confirmed at -0.2%. U.S. data includes December CPI, industrial production and preliminary January consumer sentiment figures. It will also be very interesting to hear comments from the Fed's Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bullard in the face of the SNB's move and with further declines in oil prices.
07:45 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:44 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President speaks on economic outlook
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07:43 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President speaks on monetary policy
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07:40 EDTFutures lower as market slide continues
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar remained generally supported
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06:57 EDTFed looks set to raise rates in Q2, Reuters says
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06:06 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 16
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05:52 EDTJanuary front month equity options last day to trade is January 16, 2015
04:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY steadier around after earlier rebound
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been steady-to-softer
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02:03 EDTWeek of 1/19 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:03 EDTWeek of 1/28 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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January 15, 2015
21:50 EDTSingapore non-oil domestic exports rose 2.3% y/y in December
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21:35 EDTTreasury's tertiary index rebounded 0.2% in November
Treasury's tertiary index rebounded 0.2% in November from an upwardly revised -0.1% in October (was -0.2%). The index has been in positive territory in only 2 of the last 6 months. Compared to a year ago, the index dropped 1.7% y/y, more than double the 0.8% y/y October slide. For the month, a 4.1% jump in living-related services, a 4.0% increase in miscellaneous services and 2.5% gains in finance and eating, drinking offset a 2.5% drop in compound services and a 1.6% decline in wholesale and retail.
16:47 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:47 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:47 EDTWeek of 1/23 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:47 EDTWeek of 1/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
21:27 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:54 EDTMarket on track for fifth consecutive decline
The market has spent most of the day in negative territory and appears set for its fifth consecutive down day. The Nasdaq is leading the market lower and is down more than 1%. Oil prices are on the decline again after a one day reprieve yesterday. As expected, declining stocks are well ahead of advancing stocks by a margin of over 2:1. In afternoon trading, the Dow is down 68 points, the Nasdaq is down 50 points and the S&P is down 11 points.
13:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: a sizeable call package
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been the odd man out
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11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: liquidation of call positions
Treasury Option Action: liquidation of call positions appears to be more popular today on 10-year futures than recent heavy March covered call buying, which has been in absentia for the second session in a row, so say sources. These larger "exits" included a sale of 10k in February 129 calls and 10k in February 130.5 calls, though there were bearish buyers of 2.5k in March 127 puts and 3k in February 128/128+ put spreads too. The March contract traded above the October-15 highs (129-28+) for the last two sessions and a lower close again today could trigger some weak long exits. On volatility, there were sellers of 1k in March 29+ straddles and 1k in March 130 straddles. March 10s are 6-tics firmer near 129-305 compared to their 130-06 to 129-065 session range.
11:40 EDTTreasury Action: bond bulls are likely to be net beneficiaries
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11:36 EDTCurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust volatility up on Swiss ends exchange-rate-cap
CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) January calla option implied volatility is at 47, February is at 29, March is at 20; compared to its 26-week average of 9 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement after the Swiss Central bank unexpectedly ends its minimum exchange rate versus the shared currency.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $15 B 10-year TIPS auction for next Thursday
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11:07 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828H45
11:07 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is back under $47.50
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is back under $47.50, after peaking at $51.23 earlier in the session. Sources are looking at the overnight low of $7.14 as the next trip-wire point, with a break there having the potential for another downdraft under $46.00. Volatility remains at dizzying levels.
10:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some put positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some put positioning has been a feature of early trade, according to sources. This involved a bearish purchase of 10k in September 90/92 put spreads and 10k in June 91/93/96 put butterflies, along with a bullish block purchase of 8k in December 93/95/96 call trees. March 2015s are flat at 99.735, while the deferreds are 1-3 ticks higher as the markets weigh any policy implications for the Fed from the SNB move.
10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed plunge to an eleven-month low of 6.3
The Philly Fed plunge to an eleven-month low of 6.3 in January extended the December decline to 24.3 (was 24.5) from a two-decade high of 40.2 (was 40.8) in November. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed fell to a 48.6 two-year low from 54.2 (was 54.8) in December and a 58.8 (was 59.9) ten-year high in November. The big Philly Fed drop join's this morning's January bounce in the Empire State index to 9.95 from -1.23 in December but a similar 10.33 in November, alongside gains in the employment components that contributed to an ISM-adjusted bounce in that survey to 50.6 from 47.5 in December but a similar 51.1 in November. Analysts expect industrial production growth of 3% in Q1 after a solid 5.4% rate in Q4, a 4.0% pace in Q3, and a 5.7% rate in Q2. Net declines in most producer sentiment measures since November may reflect the early impact of the oil price plunge on the mining-sensitive factory sector, beyond the headwind from atypically harsh winter weather into January.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending January 9
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10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index fell 18.0 points to 6.3 in January
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed relatively little reaction
FX Action: The dollar revealed relatively little reaction to the weaker Philly Fed index, though it did drop marginally against the euro and the yen. EUR-USD edged up to 1.1645 before falling back into 1.1615, as USD-JPY slipped from 116.90 into 116.60. Wall Street is well under water again, as yields recede, and oil prices move back under $48, from highs over $51 not two hours ago.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower with stocks
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09:48 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 10:00
09:48 EDT St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 13:10
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:43 EDTMarket opens higher, quickly gives up gains in early trade
Stock futures improved during the pre-market trading session, leading to a positive open for the broader market. The early weakness in the futures was attributed to the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly changing its policy and removing the exchange rate floor on the franc. Once the dust settled, the S&P began to recoup some of its losses and received help from the biggest drop in the Producer Price Index in more than three years. The early gains quickly evaporated and about 15 minutes into trading, the Dow is down 63 points, the Nasdaq is down 12 points and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:40 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
U.S. Philly Fed index preview: The Philly Fed is seen decreasing to 20.0 in January from 24.5 in December. Forecast risk is downward, as the decline in December new orders could flag future weakness. This compares to a recent low of -19.0 in August '11 and a high of 36.1 in March '11, while the Philly Fed has been in positive territory since April. for more.
09:30 EDTThe 0.3% U.S. December PPI drop
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09:25 EDTThe Empire State bounce to 9.95
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was all over the map
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09:15 EDTFed's inflation target is in question
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09:00 EDTThe 19k U.S. initial claims pop to 316k
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities rebounded after the mixed trifecta of data
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09:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has surged through $50 resistance
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has surged through $50 resistance, ramping up to $51.23 highs, and up over $4 from London lows. Sources reported very large buy stops from 50.34, which was the January 6 highs. The next upside target comes at $52.65, though some will consider reloading shorts on moves over $52.
08:55 EDTU.S. PPI fell 0.3% in December with the core rate rising 0.3%
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08:50 EDTU.S. Empire State index rebounded to 9.95 in January
U.S. Empire State index rebounded to 9.95 in January after plunging to -1.23 in December (revised up a bit due to benchmarking from -3.58). The employment index rallied to 13.68 versus 8.33. The workweek improved to -8.42 from -11.46. New orders climbed to 6.09 from -1.97. Prices paid increased to 12.63 from 10.42, and prices received basically doubled to 12.63 from 6.25. The 6-month business conditions index rose to 48.35 from 39.31 (revised up from 38.58), with employment at 31.58 from 20.83, orders at 41.44 from 38.85, and prices paid at 33.68 from 40.63.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields are attempting to base
Treasury Action: yields are attempting to base above lows after the wild mix of opening data that included a jump in core PPI, Empire State and jobless claims. The T-note yield had spilled from 1.90% highs in Asia to 1.79% lows in Europe after the Swiss FX peg was freed, but has since bubbled back up to 1.816% again. The 2s-10s spread has settled near +135 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. PPI fell 0.3% in December with the core rate rising 0.3%
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied some
FX Action: The dollar rallied some following the data, which revealed higher jobless claims, but hotter PPI headline data. USD-JPY popped to 116.95 from 116.65, as EUR-USD dipped to 1.1690 from 1.1705. Equity futures indicate a modestly higher Wall Street open, though given recent volatility, anything can happen, while Treasury yields hold above lows.
08:41 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:41 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 19k to 316k in the week ended January 10
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 19k to 316k in the week ended January 10 from a revised 297k previously (was 294k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 298k from 291.25k (revised from 290.5k). Continuing claims declined 51k to 2,424k in the week ended January 3 from 2,475k (revised from 2,452k). The BLS reported nothing unusual in the data.
08:37 EDTFutures turn positive after economic data released
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08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude oil is on one-week highs
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
U.S. PPI Preview: December PPI should reveal a 0.4% (median -0.4%) decline for the month following a 0.2% decline in November. The decline will be driven by the plunge in oil prices which should allow the core to grow by 0.1%. This would leave headline PPI up 1.0% y/y and the core up 2.0%.
08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:02 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Trader Instinct Think Tank: MiFID II Conference is being held in London, England on January 15.
08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:59 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:58 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
European Insurance Conference is being held in London, England on January 15.
07:57 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:56 EDTUBS to hold a conference
17th CEEMEA & Italian Financials Conference 2015 is being held in Milan, Italy on January 15-16.
07:56 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:55 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
Bloomberg Government, in partnership with the National Defense Industrial Association, holds a webinar analyzing Congress’ recent budget deal and ways contractors can position themselves for growth in 2015 entitled, "Defense Trends in the 2015 Budget" on January 15 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
07:53 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
Charlotte Beyer, founder of the Institute for Private Investors (IPI) a premier Wealth Management Forum, provides a speech entitled, "The Wealth Management Industry and Improving the Investor-Advisor Relationship" at a meeting being held in Boston on January 15 at 12:15 pm.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:22 EDTFutures suggest another sharply lower open
U.S. equity futures are pointing to another sharply lower open. The market closed yesterday with broad losses, marking the fourth straight day of declines for the major averages. Investors hoping the earnings season would support the market have been disappointed so far . Bank of America (BAC) today become the latest major company to miss Wall Street estimates. Oil prices have also resumed their decline after rallying late in the day yesterday. Today investors will be watching data on producer prices, manufacturing in New York state, the economy in the Philadelphia area, and natural gas storage.
07:17 EDTStandard & Poor to hold a webinar
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06:54 EDTGerman economic growth accelerated in 2014, Q4, NY Times reports
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-CHF collapsed after SNB gave up the 1.2000 franc cap
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06:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY got caught up in the disruptive volatility
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06:22 EDTCurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust volatility up into Swiss ends exchange-rate-cap
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 15
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05:45 EDTJanuary front month equity options last day to trade is January 16, 2015
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded slightly firmer
FX Update: The dollar traded slightly firmer against the yen and euro, while lost ground to an outperforming Aussie dollar following a much better than expected Australian employment for December. AUD-USD rallied to a three-day peak of 0.8220, extending the recovery from yesterday's low at 0.8068 and contributing to a pretty choppy price action that's unfolded over the last 10 days. Australian employment rose 37.4k, well up on the expected 4.0k rise, and the unemployment rate tumbled to 6.1% from a revised 6.2% in November (was 6.3%). USD-JPY, meanwhile, lifted to a high of 117.94, two pips shy of yesterday's peak, extending the rebound from the low seen yesterday at 116.07. A 1.9% rebound in the Nikkei helped facilitate yen losses, while there was signs that 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well with news that the BoJ is considering extending two lending programmes set to expire in March, according to Bloomberg sources. EUR-USD saw a slightly downside drift, returning to the 1.1760-70 area, remaining well within yesterday's range. BoE MPC member Sentence repeated the message of Governor Carney from a couple of days ago, downplaying the dive in CPI to 0.5% by arguing that long-term price pressures may not be disinflationary in the UK, and that transitional and long-term factors must be distinguished between.
January 14, 2015
20:30 EDTBoJ's Kuroda said the economy has continued to recover
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20:20 EDTJapanese core machine tool orders rebounded 1.3% in November
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20:15 EDTJapanese PPI fell 0.4% in December
Japanese PPI fell 0.4% in December after sliding 0.3% in November and 0.8% in October. That's a little weaker than expected. But not surprisingly, the slippage was most pronounced in petroleum, -5.7%, and chemicals, -1.2%. On a y/y basis, prices decelerated to a 1.9% y/y pace, versus 2.6% y/y previously and 2.9% in October. In fact, prices gains have been slowing since hitting a 4.5% y/y clip in June.
16:58 EDTWeek of 1/23 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
16:00 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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15:35 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility elevated on rally
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is up over 5%
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are idling above lows
Treasury Action: yields are idling above lows in the wake of the fairly predictable Beige Book survey, after investors failed to snap up reopened bonds earlier, but stocks are continuing to sag 1.00-1.50% lower and this will keep a lid on yields barring a last-second ramp up into the close. The T-note yield is at 1.82% compared to 1.78% lows, the bond yield at 2.428% vs 2.394% all-time lows and the 5-year at 1.29% vs 1.246% lows. The 2s-10s spread has pulled back to +133 bp from earlier narrows.
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book said growth was "modest" to "moderate,"
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14:13 EDTBeige Book says economy, payrolls, consumer spending increased
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14:10 EDTWeek of 1/23 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:02 EDTFed says economic activity expanded at 'modest' or 'moderate' pace
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14:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: no large covered call buyer
Treasury Option Action: no large covered call buyer has appeared today after regular visits to the floor of late, according to sources. This is curious given all the talk of late of convexity-related demand and after recent sharp gains at the long end. Instead, there has been some diverse buying of February 130 calls on 10-year futures, most likely by locals short 129, 130, 131, 132 and 133 call strikes looking to hedge.
13:50 EDTBeige Book preview
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields popped up from record lows
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has edged back above the 117 level
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12:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview:
Treasury 30-year auction preview: various pros and cons, and the morning's volatility, suggest this could be a difficult and sloppy auction. The yield fell to a new all-time low at 2.39%, and that should make it very difficult to attract outright buyers, despite some cheapness on the curve. Sources suggest shorts were covering through the morning and that may damp demand at the auction. Many also see risk of a sell-the-fact trade if the ECB announces QE. On the other hand, the demand for safety, low and declining inflation expectations, and the hunt for yield (as meager as they are, Treasury rates are still measurably above their core sovereign counterparts, and are only slightly higher versus peripheral European bonds) should provide some underpinning. Note the December auction was very strong, stopping at 2.848%, nearly 50 bps above where the bond currently trades, and garnered a solid 2.76 cover (2.47 average) with a 49.8% indirect bid (45.7% average). Direct bidders took a hefty 24.3% while primary dealers accepted a low 25.9%.
12:05 EDTFed funds futures rallied on the weak sales and trade price data
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities resumed their slide
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11:10 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B reopening could be sloppy given the big price swings this morning in the wake of the weaker than expected retail sales and trade price reports. Bond yields plunged in tandem with the headline data prints, with the 30-year hitting new ALL TIME lows at 2.39%. Like yesterday's 10-year sale, this auction could see very poor results due to its outright richness. The bond has outperformed in today's action thanks to the decline in inflation outlooks, and the marginally flatter spread to the 10-year won't do the auction any favors either. The bond should get some support from indirect bidders, as has been the trend for many months given the yield premium to core sovereigns. Note the December auction was very strong, stopping at 2.848%, nearly 50 bps above where the bond currently trades, and garnered a solid 2.76 cover (2.47 average) with a 49.8% indirect bid (45.7% average). Direct bidders took a hefty 24.3% while primary dealers accepted a low 25.9%.
10:40 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports were dominated by an ugly round of December retail sales figures after downward revisions in October and November, with the only consolation coming from the concentration of weakness in the gasoline, building material and auto components that don't enter "real" consumption calculations in the GDP accounts. Analysts also saw lean 0.2% business inventory gains in October and November that defied stronger data in the factory and wholesale reports to further depressed Q4 prospects, while December trade prices plunged. Though market forecasts had shot above our own 3.5% Q4 GDP growth estimate, some of the more optimistic forecasts may now re-take the 3-handle.
10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning on bonds
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10:36 EDTSeptember Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations to be released at 10:00
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of January 9
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10:25 EDTThe 0.2% November U.S. business inventory rise
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields have rebounded a bit
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10:15 EDTMore from Philly Fed hawk Plosser: low long-term yields
More from Philly Fed hawk Plosser: low long-term yields are due to the reach for yield, economic troubles in Europe and the relative safety of Treasuries (he left out duration-convexity demand from mortgage servicers). He also confessed that the Fed doesn't control long-term yields as much as it would like, while arguing against over-reacting to falling oil prices, since the U.S. is nowhere near deflation. Earlier he noted that his last dissent was due in part in opposition to a time-based policy (considerable time) and he expects the Fed to return to normal footing now that the economy has as well. He is targeting 3% median growth in 2015 and 2.4% over the long haul, also repeating his preference for a single inflation mandate at the Fed and a systematic rules-based policy.
10:10 EDTU.S. November business inventories rose 0.2%, while sales fell 0.2%
U.S. November business inventories rose 0.2%, while sales fell 0.2%. There was no revision to the 0.2% increase in October, but as expected, the 0.1% sales dip was revised down to -0.3%. The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.31 (October's 1.30 was bumped up. The data will help fine tune GDP forecasts.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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09:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Q3 seems the earliest the FOMC could trigger rate liftoff
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09:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen back from overnight trend highs
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09:45 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
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09:36 EDTStocks drop at open after disappointing retail sales, bank earnings
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning has crept in against the grain of the sharp rally on interest rate futures. Among them was a purchase of 15k in Green March 76/78/81 put butterflies thought by a Swiss-based fund, along with a 4k purchase of Red March 2016 86/88 put spreads. The March 2015 contract is a half-tick higher near 99.735, while the deferreds are as much as 13-ticks higher out the curve.
09:14 EDTUBS paper and forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTThe surprising 0.9% headline U.S. retail sales drop
The surprising 0.9% headline U.S. retail sales drop with a 1.0% ex-auto decline followed downward revisions in both October and November to leave a uniformly disappointing report, though December weakness was led by big declines in gasoline, building materials and autos that won't impact "real" December consumption forecasts, and prior downward revisions mostly reflected hits to gasoline station sales that were also price-related. For retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, which guide the real consumption component of GDP, analysts saw a 0.1% December drop that capped a ten-month string of 0.3%-1.1% gains. Analysts still expect a Q4 GDP growth of 3.5%, but with a smaller 4.2% (was 4.6%) growth clip for real Q4 consumer spending. Analysts assume a 0.2% (was +0.1%) December nominal PCE drop with a flat (was 0.4%) "real" figure, alongside a 0.2% PCE chain price drop that matches the decline analysts expect in Friday's December CPI report. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.2% November sales drop, after an October decline that will be revised to -0.3% from -0.1%. Analysts expect a December savings rate pop to 4.8% from 4.4% in November, versus a 4.1% cycle-low in December of 2013.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities skidded further
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08:50 EDTU.S. December import prices fell 2.5% while export prices dropped 1.2%
U.S. December import prices fell 2.5% while export prices dropped 1.2%. The 1.5% November drop was revised down to -1.8% (with October's -1.2% nudged to -1.4%). Import prices have declined for 6 straight months. November's 1.0% slide in export prices was revised to -0.8%. Exports prices have declined for 5 consecutive months. Petroleum import prices plunged 16.6% after declines of 9.1% in November and 7.1% in October. Industrial supplies prices dropped 8.5%. Foods and beverage prices rebounded 0.9%. Import prices from Canada declined 4.7%, and were unchanged versus China. As for export prices, agriculture prices fell 0.7%, while excluding ag, prices were down 1.2%.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% in December, and down 1.0% excluding autos
U.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% in December, and down 1.0% excluding autos, much worse than expected. The 0.7% gain in November was revised down to 0.4% (and the 0.5% October gain was nudged down to 0.4%). Excluding autos, the 0.5% November increase was bumped up to 0.1% (but the 0.4% October gain was revised down to 0.2%). Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, sales were down 0.2% versus 0.5% previously (revised down from 0.6%). Gas stations sales paced the weakness, as expected, falling 6.5%. Building materials fell 1.9%, while electronics dropped 1.6%. Only a couple of components posted gains.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a tumble
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08:36 EDTAdvance Retail Sales report pushes futures lower
U.S. equity futures continue to suggest a sharp decline at the open for the broader market. Advance Retail Sales were below expectations, showing a monthly decline of 0.9% versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%. Excluding autos and gas, the core reading showed a decline of 0.3% versus expectations of an increase of 0.5%. The Import Price Index showed a decline of 2.5% versus expectations of a decline of 2.7%.
08:32 EDTBank of England hosts the Chancellor of the Exchequer on economic policy
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Right Honorable George Osborne, MP, discusses economic policy to leading economists, academics and policymakers in a speech being held on January 14 at 12:30 pm. Webcast Link
08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Philly Fed hawk Plosser
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08:15 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade prices preview:
U.S. trade prices preview: December import prices are expected to fall 3.2% (median -1.5%) vs -1.5% in November, while export prices may reveal a 0.4% decline (median -0.6%) vs -1.0%. Forecast risk is even lower, however, as the continued collapse in oil prices will weigh on the report. preview for the details.
08:06 EDTCFA Society of Baltimore to hold a meeting
Mary Jane McQuillen discusses the elements of and addresses the myths about integrating environmental, social, governance (ESG) factors into actively managed equity portfolios in a meeting being held in Baltimore on January 14 at 11:45 am.
08:04 EDTExecutives' Club of Chicago to hold a luncheon meeting
Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon Meeting where David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Funds and Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at Mesirow Financial, provide their financial forecasts for economic growth and interest rates is being held in Chicago on January 14 at 12 pm.
07:51 EDTSEC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting to consider whether to adopt rules governing the security-based swap data repository ("SDR") registration process is being held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on January 14 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:47 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic outlook
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07:46 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains across global sovereigns overnight, and amid a sea of red in equities. The 30-year bond is outperforming, dropping 3 bps to 2.47%, just off record lows of 2.454% from July 2012. The 10-year yield fell to 1.85%, the lowest since May 2013. Helping underpin bonds was the drop in copper which fell to prices not seen since July 2009. Also, the European Court of Justice gave a thumbs up to QE from the ECB, indicating asset buying was legal "in principle." Peripheral bonds are outperforming in Europe, while the Bund is down over 3 bps to 0.44%. Meanwhile, the weakness in commodities continues to drag equities lower. Today's data on December retail sales will be closely monitored, along with import and export prices and business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged a massive 49.1% on a pick-up in refinancings. The Treasury reopens $13 B in 30-year bonds. And the Fed will release its Beige Book for the January 27, 28 policy meeting. The hawkish Fed president Plosser speaks on the economy.
07:43 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Risk off appears to be the case again for the Wednesday session, as commodity price weakness takes the spotlight, bringing with it cascading equity losses and record low yields for many sovereign debt issues. The dollar remains mixed, moving to new trend highs against the euro, as ECB QE looks to be about fully priced in now, while losing ground to the risk-averse yen. USD-CAD traded over 1.2000 for the first time in five-years. WTI oil prices are near $46/bbl after touching $45 overnight, while copper futures dove 15 cents/pound to $2.40. The U.S. calendar reveals December retail sales and December import/export prices, both at 8:30 EST, November business inventories at 10:00 EST, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 10:30 EST.
07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 49.1%
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07:31 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2015 Credit Spread Driver Conference is being held in London, England on January 14.
07:25 EDTMarket slump continues
Stock futures are lower this morning, as the market appears ready to continue its recent slide. Investors will be watching the Advance Retail Sales report, scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET,as well as reports on import prices, business inventories , and weekly Department of Energy inventories.
07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar remains the currency of choice
FX Update: The dollar remains the currency of choice. EUR-USD made a fresh nine-year low at 1.1727 on developments that suggest ECB quant easing is all but a certainty now, and the dollar bloc units making fresh lows amid a copper-led decline in commodity prices and equity markets following a world growth downgrade by the World Bank. USD-CAD clocked to a new major-trend peak of 1.2017. USD-JPY dove to a one-month low of 116.65, making this the fourth consecutive down day, during which both the 20- and 50-day moving averages have been breached (the first time spot has been below these markers in three months). The yen was underpinned by the risk-off backdrop, as per the currency's usual inverse correlation to swings in risk appetite.
06:47 EDTPowerShares DB Agriculture Fund volatility elevated as index trends lower
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund over all option implied volatility of 15 compares to its 26-week average of 16 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
06:43 EDTPowerShares Commodity Index volatility elevated as index at record low
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06:32 EDTEuro zone's November industrial production beat expectations, Reuters says
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05:59 EDTJanuary front month equity options last day to trade is January 16, 2015
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.71%, DAX down 0.32%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $45.58, natural gas up 1.66%, gold at $1229 an ounce, copper down 4.67%.
05:10 EDTCopper prices are leading a broader commodity drop
Copper prices are leading a broader commodity drop today. Prices went limit down in Shanghai, while LME futures in London were showing a 8.7% decline at the lows, according to Bloomberg, with the metal making six-year lows. Other metals and soft commodities are also trading lower today, while front-month NYMEX crude futures are showing a 1.1% loss, though at $45.41 still remains above yesterday's lows. The losses were triggered by the World Bank trimming its growth forecast for the world economy to 3.0% for 2015 from the 3.4% forecast it made last June. The bank also said China is undergoing a "managed slowdown." Equity markets have also been affected. The pan-Europe STOXX 600 equity index is showing a 0.7% decline presently, and S&P 500 futures a 0.5% loss.
04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled back under 1.20
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02:50 EDTFX Update: A big fall in copper prices drove the AUD and dollar bloc lower
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01:37 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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