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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 3, 2015
14:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning was the rule in whippy trading day on underlying 10-year futures, as stocks first surged then faded. Among them were bullish purchases of 1k in week-1 127+ calls and 2.5k in October 128+/129+ call spreads. On the bearish side were purchases of 2k in November 123 puts, 3.5k in October 127 puts, 2.5k in October 126 puts and 2k of October 127/126 put spreads. Also bearish were sales of 1k in week-1 127+/129 call 1x2s and 2k in week-2 127+ calls. Seems the scales were tipped toward the bears, though underlying September 10s are now 9.5-ticks firmer near 128-01, compared their 128-04 to 127-235 session range.
13:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields are edging toward the day's lows
Treasury Action: yields are edging toward the day's lows, as Wall Street's gains erode, but remain inside recent ranges. When issued yields are richening as a consequence, with the wi 3-year at 1.02%, the wi 10-year at 2.17%, and the 30-year at 2.945%. Curve trades have been whippy though the current bias is toward flatteners ahead of the August jobs report, next week's supply, and the upcoming FOMC. Chances for a September Fed rate hike should continue to restrain the rally in shorter dated Treasuries, with the long end benefiting from the drop in Eurozone rates after dovish Draghi comments and mild inflation views. Analysts could see the 2s-10s spread moving back toward recent narrows of 140 bps if the jobs report isn't too disappointing.
13:38 EDTWeek of 9/12 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has bounced back
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13:00 EDTU.S. Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDPNow was revised up to 1.5%
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12:50 EDTTreasury Action: outperformance in the belly
Treasury Action: outperformance in the belly of the yield curve has been the net result of the latest downshift in yields as the stock market rally begins to tire and the markets set up for tomorrow's payrolls report. PIMCO's El-Erian also said that he was considering a shift into the belly, where he was starting to see some value after advocating a "barbell" strategy of cash and high tech. The 5-year yield is down 3.4 basis points to the 1.486% area, while the 2-year yield is 2 bp lower near 0.70%, the 10-year off 2.6 bp to 2.167% and the 30-year 2 bp lower at 2.944%. The 2s-10s spread has accordingly held steady near +147 bp, while the 5s-30s spread has steepened 2 bp to +146 bp from Wednesday's close.
12:25 EDTU.S. equities have taken a breather
U.S. equities have taken a breather from their breathless rally, but remain 0.5-0.8% higher on the day after a strong finish in Europe with a 2.2% gain on the Euro Stoxx 50 after the ECB widened its QE net a bit. The S&P 500 has since come up shy of the 1,980 level, which stands in the way of a test of 1,990 50% retrace of the August fall and the 1,993.4 post-Black Monday high, the next thresholds on the upside. Within the Dow the top gainers are Intel +2.4%, Cisco +1.7% and Home Depot +1.0%, while the laggards are Wal-Mart +0.3%, P&G +0.5% and Merck +0.6%. Some caution is likely to creep in ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report and the long Labor Day weekend. Payrolls remain the usual monthly wildcard, especially with the Fed September 17 policy decision 2-weeks away. Note, PIMCO's El-Erian just said on CNBC a September hike would be the right move but at the "wrong time" for the Fed.
11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made new U.S. session highs of 120.39
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $58 B 3-pronged offering
Treasury announced a $58 B 3-pronged offering for the holiday abbreviated week ahead, as projected. The auctions include a $24 B 3-year note for Tuesday, a $21 b ln 10-year re-opening for Wednesday, and a $13 B 30-year reopening for Thursday. Debt managers also announced a $44 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Tuesday, a $4 B cut from this week's size.
10:55 EDTTreasury Action: supply is back in the picture next week
Treasury Action: supply is back in the picture next week with the 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions on tap (details announced at the top of the hour). Analysts expect a $58 B package, including a $24 B 3-year (Tuesday), a $21 b ln 10-year re-opening (Wednesday), and a $13 B 30-year reopening (Thursday). The auctions will be complicated by the disposition of the jobs report tomorrow, the implications for the FOMC, and the market reactions.
10:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 4.4% to dip below 25.0
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending August 28
Gas inventories 94 Bcf build vs. consensus of 93 Bcf build.
10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM-NMI drop in August to 59.0
The U.S. ISM-NMI drop in August to 59.0 trimmed the July surge to 60.3 ten-year high from 56.0 in June and a 55.7 one-year low in May, leaving the measure still-above the 58.8 prior cycle-high last November. The ISM-adjusted measure fell to 58.1 from a 59.7 ten-year high, versus 55.8 in June and a 54.7 one-year low in May. Analysts saw the same 58.1 prior cycle-high in November. The ISM-NMI has shown a larger and more sustained bounce into mid-year than the factory sentiment measures after less of a drop-back during the November-March period, as might be expected if the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power from lower gasoline prices while the depressed factory sector is facing a petro-sector headwind. The mix of a strong ISM-NMI but weak factory sector survey readings allowed the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to fall back to the 51 two-year low seen over the three months ending in May before the temporary June-July bounce to 53, versus 55 over the four months ending in November and a 56 cycle-high last July that was also seen in February and March of 2011.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held steady at higher levels
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar remained largely static
FX Action: The dollar remained largely static after the slight services ISM beat, and remains near session highs versus the euro, though off of best levels against the yen. EUR-USD trades near 1.1110, while USD-JPY is running into resistance under 120.00. Stocks are off their best levels, though still in the green.
10:12 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite data reported
August ISM Non-Mfg Index Composite at 59.0 vs. consensus of 58.5
10:10 EDTU.S. ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 59.0 in August
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI rose to 56.1 for the final August print
U.S. Markit services PMI rose to 56.1 for the final August print, versus July's 55.7 and compared to the 55.2 preliminary August reading. It's a second consecutive gain, reflecting a pick up in activity after the expansion in the service sector had been in slowing mode in April, May, and June. Prices charged fell to 49.4 versus July's 51.8 and is the weakest since November 2010. The composite PMI was steady at 55.7.
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed higher again
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10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has dropped to session lows
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