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News For NOSYMBOL;NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 19, 2014
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTCleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.1% in July
Cleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.1% in July with the 16% trimmed mean also up 0.1%, in line with the BLS measure. On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 2.2% y/y, versus a 2.3% y/y increase in June, with the trimmed mean up 1.9% y/y, unchanged from June. The BLS' measure showed a similar slowing in the headline y/y figure to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% y/y, and a steady pace for the "core" reading at 1.9% y/y.
14:20 EDTFOMC Minutes preview: the Minutes will be a mixed bag
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14:00 EDTU.S. equities extended their lead
U.S. equities extended their lead even as Apple cracked $100/ps and kept on climbing, up 1.3% to $100.45, which helped prop up stocks 0.3-0.4%, though blue chips are pacing tech for a change. Within the Dow, Home Depot remains the clear winner, up 6.3% followed at a distant second by UnitedHealth at +1.5% and AMEX at +1.0%. At the bottom of the heap are communications companies AT&T -0.5% and Verizon -0.4%. This is keeping yields and the dollar propped up for now.
13:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads are backing out at the long-end
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12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy put buying
Euro$ interest rate options: heavy put buying was reported by a suspected Swiss-based fund, who reportedly bought 20k in bearish Short September 90/91 put 1x3s, buying the 1-leg. There was also a bullish purchase of 10k in Blue September 75/77 call spreads. Euro$s have pared some of their losses, but are still down 0.5-2.0 ticks.
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has made new intra day highs
FX Action: USD-CAD has made new intra day highs of 1.0938, moving higher despite the better risk backdrop (though softer oil and gold prices have offset), as USD gains remain broad so far on Tuesday. Some residual corporate buying has been reported, with those missing the boat under 1.0900 stepping in this morning. Light stops are noted over 1.0940, though two-way interest is seen from 1.0950 to 1.0980.
11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is making slow but steady progress
FX Action: USD-JPY is making slow but steady progress higher, now peaking at 102.87, as it grinds through noted Japanese exporter offers. The positive risk backdrop has allowed the pairing to add to Monday's modest gains, with the near term target set at 103.00. There are liable to be a good number of profit taking related sellers into the figure, though stops are not noted until 103.10, above the July 30 peak.
11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were well received
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.285 B in Treasury notes
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B
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10:25 EDTU.S. equities opened higher
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09:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed trade
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09:35 EDTThe 0.1% July U.S. CPI headline and core price gains
The 0.1% July U.S. CPI headline and core price gains modestly beat estimates, thanks to a 0.4% food price rise alongside the expected 0.3% July energy price drop. For commodities, CPI food prices haven't fallen since May of 2013, though the July energy price drop capped a three-month string of increases. Analysts expect 0.1% July PCE chain price gains for the headline and core that match today's CPI gains, which rounded-up from respective 0.091% and 0.096% increases. Analysts still expect a 0.1% July nominal PCE rise that matches last week's July ex-auto retail sales rise, though analysts now expect a flat (was 0.1%) "real" figure. Our 3.2% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes 3.5% (was 3.3%) nominal and 2.2% (was 2.4%) "real" consumption growth, with a 1.2% (was 0.9%) chain price gain. Last week, analysts saw a 0.1% July PPI increase with a 0.2% core price rise, alongside SOP July PPI gains of 0.1% for both. Analysts saw core price resilience but headline oil and food price declines in last week's July trade price report.
09:34 EDTEconomic data helps fuel higher open
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09:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 30 cents
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09:20 EDTThe hefty U.S. July housing starts and permits bounce
The hefty U.S. July housing starts and permits bounce, after a diminished drop over the prior two months thanks to upward revisions, took the edge off the array of downside housing sector surprises through Q2 that left downgrades in most forecasts of the 2014 recovery. The housing rebound more generally remains anemic, likely due to ongoing mortgage market dysfunction, consumer caution, and a reduction in distressed sales, though today's report provided some welcome good news for the sector. housing starts under construction, which drive new home construction, surged in July after defying Q2 restraint and bad weather in Q1. Analysts saw a 2.9% July surge that followd gains of 1.2% (was 1.1%) in June and 1.6% (was 0.9%) in May. There hasn't been a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Analysts still expect GDP growth of 3.2% in Q3, after a downward bump in Q2 growth to 3.8% from the 4.0% advance figure, with residential construction growth of 5% in Q3 after a 7.5% Q2 clip. For nonresidential construction, analysts expect growth of 4% in Q3, after a likely big boost in Q2 growth to the 9% area from 5.3%.
09:10 EDTU.S. housing starts surged 15.7% to a 1.093 M pace in July
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: policymakers aren't likely to be swayed much
Fed Policy Outlook: policymakers aren't likely to be swayed much by this morning's inflation and housing data, hence leaving Yellen with a relatively dovish leaning when she speaks on Friday from Jackson Hole. Remember, the FOMC said the "recovery in the housing sector remains slow," and while the July rebound in starts will be good news, it's one months' data and most Committee members will want to see more sustained gains. Concurrently, CPI remained tame with the headline y/y pace even slowing slightly. And perhaps most importantly, real earnings were unchanged, and lack of wage growth will remain a thorn in the Fed's side.
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