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News For NOSYMBOL;NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 29, 2016
08:55 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
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08:50 EDTU.S. Advance trade on goods deficit widened to -60.5$ B in December
U.S. Advance trade on goods deficit widened to -60.5$ B in December, from November's -$60.3 B (revised from -$60.5 B). That's weaker than expected. Exports fell 1.0% to $120.2 from $121.3 B (revised from $121.0 B). Imports were flat at $181.7 B from a revised $181.6 B (was $181.5 B).
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD slipped toward 1.4030
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08:45 EDTU.S. Advance Q4 GDP slowed to 0.7%
U.S. Advance Q4 GDP slowed to 0.7%, below estimates, following Q3's 2.0% rate and 3.9% in Q2. Consumption was up 2.2% from 3.0% previously. Fixed investment inched up 0.2% following the prior 3.7% gain, with spending on residential structures up 8.1% from 8.2%, while nonresidential spending contracted 1.8% from 2.6%. Government spending increased 0.7% after the 1.8% clip previously. Inventories subtracted $16.9 B compared to -$28.0 B previously. Net exports also subtracted $20.4 B versus an $11.5 B subtraction. The chain price index rose 0.8% after a 1.3% Q3 pace, with the core rate at 1.2% from 1.4%.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar didn't move much
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08:36 EDTInternational Trade in Goods Balance data reported
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08:32 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 13:30
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08:31 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 00:00
08:31 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI data reported
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08:30 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:30 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
U.S. ECI Preview: Q4 employment costs should reveal a 0.7% (median 0.6%) pace of quarterly growth. This would leave the y/y rate up 2.1% which compares to 2.0% in the prior two quarters. Wages and salaries are seen up 0.7% and benefits, which have driven most of the growth since the recession, should be up 0.6%.
08:30 EDTU.S. trade deficit preview:
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude futures are up about 1%
Energy Action: NYMEX crude futures are up about 1% at $33.45/bbl in early N.Y. trade, after ranging between $34.13 and $33.08 overnight. Recent gains, prompted by market hopes for a meeting amongst producers to tackle the global oversupply issue, have largely held, despite no time-line in place for such a meeting, though dollar strength this morning has dented sentiment somewhat. Sources look for a N.Y. close over $33.00 to keep the better market tone intact, though a break below is expected to bring further pressure on prices into the weekend, barring fresh news on production cut talks. RBOB gasoline futures are back under $1.09/gallon, after posting nearly three-week highs over $1.15 on Thursday. Retail prices continue to fall however, with average U.S. prices now down to $1.81/gallon, down 3 cents over the past week, and 19 cents from a month ago, per AAA data.
08:05 EDTCanada IPPI Preview
Canada IPPI Preview: Our projection is for the industrial product price index to fall 0.5% (m/m, nsa) in December after the 0.2% drop in November. The IPPI is expected to post a 0.9% y/y rate of increase in December after the 0.2% drop in November. A difficult comparison with a sharply lower December of 2014 index level is to blame. The RMPI is projected to fall 5.0% m/m in December, driven by a 13% drop in oil prices in December from November.
08:05 EDTFed funds are opening in the 0.27% range
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The shock BoJ move to join the negative rate club saw the dollar soar against the yen, bond yields tank, and global equities forge higher. USD-JPY rallied nearly 300 points from bottom to top, and has held the bulk of those gains through the London morning session. Focus now shifts to the U.S. calendar, which will feature the advance Q4 GDP report, where analysts expect a 1.0% gain (revised down from 1.3% after yesterday's disastrous durable goods report), versus the previous 2.0% result. Q4 ECI will be important too, given the worries over the lack of price pressures. Analysts're forecasting a 0.7% increase, and 2.0% y/y from the prior 0.6% and 2.1% y/y gains. Also, the advance trade in goods report is expected to reveal a $59.6 B deficit from -$60.5 B, on lower exports and imports. The final January U. of Michigan consumer sentiment report should reveal a slight increase to 93.5 from 93.3. Finally, the January Chicago PMI is set to bounce to 48.5 from 42.9.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are sharply higher after the BoJ shocker
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07:30 EDTFX Update: The yen plummeted
FX Update: The yen plummeted after the BoJ unexpectedly announced that it will impose a -0.1% interest rate on excess reserves, effective from Feb-16. This was a shock as BoJ governor Kuroda said recently that did not intend to cut rates on excess reserves, and market analysts had been expecting that any easing move would come in the form of an expansion in the QQE program. The vote was narrow -- 5 versus 4 -- and a three-tier system in applying the negative rate will dilute its impact, but the BoJ stated that it is putting its 2% inflation target on ice and that it will cut the interest rate "further into negative territory if judged as necessary." USD-JPY surged 2.4% in making a peak at 121.43, the highest level since Dec-21. There were various sub-themes to the dominant yen story. The commodity currencies had rallied strongly during the Asian session, but reversed these gains during the European AM. AUD-USD clocked a three-week peak at 0.7140, subsequently reverting to net lower levels on the day below 0.7070. The move correlated with a drift lower in oil prices. Another sub-plot was dollar strength, which outeperformed during the European AM. EUR-USD was moderately lower in the low 1.09s, as of the early European PM session. Cable was also softer. EUR-CHF, meanwhile, logged a fresh one-year peak at 1.1139, making today the sixth consecutive higher high the cross has seen.
07:01 EDTFutures jump on Japan rate cut
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05:50 EDTOil holds above USD 33, but is off earlier highs
Oil holds above USD 33, but is off earlier highs, as Russia indicated that there is currently no meeting with OPEC scheduled, which dampened speculation on a cooperation on oil output. Russian Energy Minister Novak said that while Venezuela has proposed a meeting next month, nothing is scheduled. This followed comments from four OPEC delegates yesterday, who also said that no meeting has been arranged so far. Futures remain up on the day, however and firmly above recent lows, with the March Nymex future currently at USD 33.43 and the April contract at USD 34.95.
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