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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 22, 2016
13:07 EDTBaker-Hughes Rig Count N. Amer. data reported
Week of 1/22 Baker-Hughes Rig Count N. Amer. at 887
13:05 EDTCLSA U.S. banks and energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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12:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has backed up from lows
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11:40 EDTMorgan Stanley economists are forecasting flat U.S. Q4 GDP
Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting flat U.S. Q4 GDP with a still-low 1.8% in 2016, abiding by their estimate of a 20% recession probability in 2016, while noting that recent tightening in financial conditions since December equates with 4 Fed hikes. But if the economy decelerates to 1.0-1.5%, they expect the Fed to refrain from further rate hikes this year -- for a "one and done" result. After today's reports analysts are still estimating a more optimistic 1.3% gain in Q4 GDP (released next Friday after the FOMC) along with a 2.0% rise in Q1. The most recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow survey on Wednesday forecast a 0.7% rise in Q4 GDP, compared to the 1.0% median estimate by Blue Chip economists. Their next update will be released after the FOMC with durables report on Jan-28.
11:35 EDTS&P upgrades Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC+'
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC+'. The upgrade reflects its assessment that the Greek government is broadly complying with the terms of its EUR86 billion financial support program financed by eurozone member states via the European Stability Mechanism. "In particular, by the end of March we expect a compromise to be reached on pension reform that will balance the government's preference to raise social security contributions and consolidate the separate pension funds into a single system, with creditors' and the IMF's focus on spending cuts to narrow an unsustainably high pension deficit, currently estimated at 9% of GDP," S&P stated.
11:25 EDTFed policy outlook:
Fed policy outlook: next week's FOMC isn't likely to follow the more dovish lead from the ECB and BoJ. Remember too there won't be a press conference from Yellen, nor any forecast updates. While no one was expecting any further rate action, the recent debacle in stocks, energy, China, etc, have reduced market expectations for a March hike, though analysts haven't thrown in the towel. Indeed, the Fed is unlikely to play its hand one way or another. There won't be any pre-determination on policy, especially as global financial conditions are so jumpy. Look for the Fed to reiterate the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with further improvement in the labor market. There could be some toning down of the view on consumer spending and business fixed investment, which were termed "solid" in December. But don't expect the Committee to highlight the downside risks (a la Draghi) and suggest the erosion in Q4 growth and the downdraft in stocks are harbingers of significant deterioration in GDP. Instead, it's more likely to reiterate the transitory nature of the weakness in oil prices. In terms of the timing, size of future adjustments, the Fed should reiterate it will "take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments." The FOMC will continue to "carefully monitor" inflation trends. Committee members can feel somewhat confident in their inflation hopes given the rise in y/y core CPI to 2.1%, which will help offset the negative effects of the plunge in oil and commodity prices.
11:05 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower having unwound some of their recent outperformance on the equity slump earlier in the week that has since been reversed with oil prices. Hopes for global stimulus from Europe, China and potentially Japan has given stocks pretext for a short-covering rally and that has subdued the rate futures. The March 2016 contract is 2-ticks lower near 99.33 (0.67% implied 3-month yield), while the deferred contracts are 3-9 ticks lower out the back in deference to opening gains on stocks and oil. The FOMC is likely to remain cagey at next week's meeting about the outlook, with no chance seen of a move that soon anyway, but markets convinced that the Fed's "gradual" tightening pace will be more like "glacial."
10:30 EDTA 14.7% December U.S. existing home sales surge
A 14.7% December U.S. existing home sales surge to a 5.46 M rate beat estimates, and reversed the 10.5% November plunge to a 4.76 M clip from a 5.32 M October rate as the November regulatory distortion from the "Know Before You Owe" initiative was reversed. Inventories fell 12.3% in December, while the median price rose 1.9% to defy the seasonal downdraft. Existing home sales are tracked at closings, and the mild weather in November and December may boost sales in next month's January report, even though temperatures fell through the month and analysts're now seeing a big East Coast storm. Analysts saw a 6.5% 2015 existing home sales climb after a 2.9% 2014 post "taper-tantrum" drop that still leaves sales below the mid-2013 rate, and the current sales rate remains below the 5.58 M cycle-high pace from July. Analysts're seeing 7%-12% growth in most housing measures, with lean inventories and a price uptrend with gains concentrated in Q2 of each year. Analysts have cyclical gains of 58% for existing home sales and 40% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 82% for new home sales and 140% for both housing starts, and permits.
10:20 EDTU.S. leading indicators dipped 0.2% to 123.7 in December
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied to two-week highs
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10:15 EDTU.S. December existing home sales climbed 14.7% to 5.460 M
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their rebound
Treasury Action: yields extended their rebound though the surge in existing home sales was inflated by front-running of mortgage requirement changes around the turn of the year, while LEI sank. Equities are still on track to bolt higher at the open, padding gains with the progress in crude back over $31 bbl. The 2-year yield has backed up over 0.88%, while the 10-year yield nosed over 2.08% from 2.05% lows earlier. That's left the curve steeper, as the 2s-10s spread pushes through +120 bp.
10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has come back down to earth
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10:01 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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09:55 EDTCBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index OVX down 2%, near upper end of 6-year range
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09:55 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: December existing home sales data should reveal a 11.3% headline increase to a 5.300 M (median 5.120 M) pace following the 10.5% drop to 4.760 M in November. The November release was partly depressed by new regulation going into effect that delayed some sales into December. Other available measures of housing data weakened in December with the NAHB declining to 60 and housing starts falling to 1.149 M from 1.179 M.
09:55 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. flash January Markit manufacturing PMI rose 1.5 points to 52.7
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09:46 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 14:45
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