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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 31, 2015
11:35 EDTTreasury Action: long yields snapped higher
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11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY's rally ran out of steam
FX Action: USD-JPY's rally ran out of steam just over 121.40, just above the European morning peak, though well under the early Asian high of 121.64. Risk-off conditions have limited the scope for gains, as Wall Street and yields stay down. Bids are reportedly in place into 121.00, though stops could be an issue under 120.85.
11:05 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed further evidence of a renewed downturn in producer sentiment in August in the face of petroleum price declines, an inventory overhang, and disruptions in China, hence providing a negative spin for the August data as analysts approach Friday's jobs report. Analysts saw a small Chicago PMI decline to 54.4 from 54.7 as analysts partly reversed July's limited retooling boost for this auto-sensitive survey, while the Dallas Fed index plunged to -15.8 in August from -4.6, with an ISM-adjusted drop to 48.2 from 50.4, as the petro-sector recession continues. Downside risk for Friday was capped by gains in the two employment gauges from the Dallas survey, but when analysts combine today's weakness with declines in the Empire State and Richmond Fed surveys, it appears that the factory sector will remain in the doldrums through Q3 even as GDP and industrial production rebound.
10:55 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility is back on rise
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10:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar ignored the weaker Dallas Fed index
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10:41 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey General Activity Index data reported
August Dallas Fed Mfg Survey General Activity Index at -15.8 vs consensus of -2.5
10:15 EDTDownside Risk for U.S. August Payrolls:
Downside Risk for U.S. August Payrolls: Analysts expect a 215k August rise for nonfarm payrolls that matches the July headline, with upside risk from continued tightness in initial claims and a bounce in consumer confidence. Yet, Michigan sentiment and other confidence gauges fell in August, and the anemic post-March producer sentiment recovery has stalled. More generally, the big July bounce in vehicle assemblies, factory output, and hours-worked may have partly reversed course in August, and this suggests modest net downside risk for Friday's jobs report.
10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on session highs
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields held their earlier declines
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI dipped to 54.4 in August
U.S. Chicago PMI dipped to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. The erosion was contrary to expectations (median 54.9). The index was at a contractionary 49.4 in June and 46.2 in May following a 52.3 reading in April.
09:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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09:45 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI Preview
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09:36 EDTMarket begins week back in the red
Stock futures were sharply lower throughout the pre-market trading session. The early weakness was attributed to reports out of China that they were stopping their large scale purchases of equities along with comments from Fed officials at the Jackson Hole conference suggesting they were ready to begin the interest rate liftoff in 2015. The futures action led to a lower open for the broader market, which managed to close last week with gains despite the market's volatile daily moves. In early trading, the Dow fell 115 points, the Nasdaq dropped 21 points and the S&P declined 12 points.
09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are fairly flat
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09:08 EDTEuropean College of Neuropsychopharmacology to hold a conference
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08:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is down about 2.5%
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is down about 2.5% in early N.Y. trade, currently idling near $44.05 after ranging between $45.27 and $44.14 overnight. A fire and subsequent closure of a synthetic crude production facility in Canada has provided some support, with the 325k bpd plant staying off-line for an unknown period. Bigger picture however, the market remains extremely over-supplied, by upwards of 3 M bpd, while the demand outlook continues to be foggy. As a result, oil prices are likely to remain in sell-the-rally mode for the foreseeable future. Last week's stellar gains had the effect of squaring up an oversold market, with the vast majority of shorts squeezed out of their positions. As a result, another sell-off may be much easier to achieve in the coming sessions. September RBOB gasoline futures expire at the close today, and most activity is now in the October contract, which is down 1.8%, trading at $1.372/gallon. Natural gas is at $2.65/M BTU, remaining heavy on the back of high inventory levels.
08:26 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 31
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08:20 EDTU.S. equities are set to open lower
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar is marginally lower as compared to Friday's closing levels, though activity was relatively light overall. China equity markets pulled up from their worst levels into the close, alleviating some pressure on safe haven flows, though U.S. futures continue to indicate a lower Wall Street open, as longer dated Treasury yields are down. EUR-USD sits near 1.1205, with USD-JPY at 121.30, cable near 1.5410, and USD-CAD near 1.3250. The U.S. calendar reveals the August Chicago PMI at 9:45 EDT, and the August Dallas Fed index at 10:30 EDT.
07:50 EDTU.S. Treasury Opening Outlook (Aug 31):
U.S. Treasury Opening Outlook (Aug 31): Fischer Part II: the Fed Vice Chairman indicated over the weekend that "there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further." Along with additional equity declines in Asia and Europe, that's put a little more negative tone on pre-open U.S. indices, but it has left longer-dated Treasuries a bit firmer relative to Friday as the Fed's inflation mantra has been one of hope over substance for some time. This continues to play out in the form of curve flattening, with the 2-year yield still stuck over 0.730%, while the 10-year is back down 3 bp to 2.16% and the spread between the two at +143 bp. In the U.S., Monday's calendar reveals the August Chicago PMI PMI, seen rising slightly to 55.0 and the August Dallas Fed index, neither of which should stir things up too much. The markets will however, begin looking ahead to Tuesday's manufacturing ISM, and Wednesday's August ADP jobs survey, which will see the start of handicapping for Friday's official jobs report. Incoming data between now and the September 17 meeting will be watched like a Fed hawk, as markets attempt to divine the odds for a rate hike. Dovish Boston Fed president Rosengren speaks on the economic outlook before the Forecasters Club of NY from 13:10 ET.
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