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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 4, 2015
10:20 EDTJobs Data Firm in August, Despite Payroll Shortfall:
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10:05 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening has prevailed
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09:55 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
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09:46 EDTStocks slide at open after lower than expected monthly rise in U.S. jobs
U.S. stocks are sharply lower in early trading after the government reported 173,000 nonfarm jobs were added in the U.S. last month, missing analysts' consensus projection that payrolls grew 217,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.1%, which was down from 5.3% previously and below the 5.2% consensus forecast. The dip in the unemployment rate and other underlying data in the report appears to be leading investors to believe that the Fed will likely raise interest rates later this month. In early trading the averages are off their opening lows but still deep in the red, with the Dow down 200 points, the Nasdaq down 38 points and the S&P down 22 points.
09:35 EDTThe U.S. jobs report
The U.S. jobs report tracked expectations on net, despite the kneejerk focus on the lean 173k August payroll gain. Analysts saw 44k in upward revisions that left the August level of payrolls in line with estimates. Analysts saw a second month with the workweek at a cycle-high 34.6, alongside a big 0.4% August hours-worked gain, though it followed a trimming in the July rise to 0.2% from 0.5%. Hourly earnings beat estimates with a 0.3% climb. The 196k civilian employment rise was respectable, while a 41k labor force drop allowed a plunge in the jobless rate to a 5.11% new cycle-low. The bad news in the report was a skewing in employment strength toward the government sector, where analysts saw a 33k August gain after 39k in upward revisions, and a weak goods sector, where analysts saw a lean 0.1% hours-worked rise that included a 0.4% gain for construction, but declines of 0.1% for factories and 1.2% for mining. Goods sector jobs posted a surprising 24k drop, with a 3k gain for construction but declines of 17k for factories and 10k for mining.
09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: it's not about the August jobs report
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09:20 EDTMore from Fed hawk Lacker: jobs report was "good
More from Fed hawk Lacker: jobs report was "good, but it doesn't change the picture for monetary policy." This followed his earlier hawkish opinion that the report wouldn't materially alter the policy picture, since he was already an advocate of a rate hike as soon as September. That said, analysts already know the Fed has met its employment mandate, it's just that it needs to have sufficient confidence on the inflation front, which it has been missing while commodities plunge and the dollar advances. This global disinflation has been amplified by the slowdown, devaluation and volatility in China. Hence, the Fed's conundrum.
09:15 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook
For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook, analysts're poised for a sturdy 2.8% growth clip for hours-worked in Q3 that signals upside risk for Q3 GDP, following a lean 1.0% hours-worked clip in Q2 but a respectable 2.2% rate in Q1 that left the opposite Q1-Q2 growth zigzag than seen with GDP growth. Analysts expect a 3.0% growth clip for GDP in Q3 after an expected Q2 growth boost to 3.8% from 3.7%. The Q2 GDP boost reflects expected upward bumps of $5 B for construction and $2 B for net exports, but a $4 B trimming for factory inventories. More generally, hours-worked have beat assumptions since 2013, with Q4/Q4 growth of an estimated 1.9% in 2015 after a 2.5% 2014 climb. Productivity growth has weakened accordingly, with an estimated Q4/Q4 2015 rise of just 1.2% after a flat 2014 figure. For quarterly figures, analysts expect a 1.0% Q3 productivity rise after a 3.3% Q2 climb, but prior contraction rates of 1.1% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q4 of last year. Payroll growth has moderated in 2015 after a Q4 pop and a relatively firm 2014, given a 212k year-to-date average monthly payroll gain in 2015 that compares to a 324k average in Q4 and a 260k average for 2014 overall.
09:10 EDTFed funds futuers are slipping lower on the jobs report
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures rolled over
Euro$ interest rate futures rolled over with Fed tightening expectations heightened by the firmer underlying picture in the jobs report, despite the lower headline gain. A number of reports from Goldman and WSJ's Hilsenrath overnight also cited the seasonal tendency for the jobs data to be revised subsequently higher, which will no doubt prove true for August as well. The December 2015 contract is 1.5-ticks lower at 99.51 (0.490% implied 3-month rate) compared to highs yesterday near 99.545 (0.455%). The nearby deferreds are as much as 3.5-ticks lower, while further out the curve they are as much as 3.5-ticks firmer -- steepening the strip, but an effective flattening of the curve in yield terms. In other words, go ahead Fed and get started, but at a gradual path.
09:05 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on other August reports
For the U.S. jobs data impact on other August reports, analysts assume a 0.4% personal income gain that matches the increases in each of the last four months. Our estimate implies Q3 growth of 5.0% for total income and 4.9% for disposable income, after Q2 growth at rates of 3.8% and 3.5%. Industrial production is poised for a 0.2% August drop after the big 0.6% July pop that may be trimmed, and a 0.1% June rise that broke a five-month string of 0.1%-0.3% declines. Analysts saw hours-worked declines of 0.1% for factories and 1.2% for mining. Analysts assume a 1% August utility decline after the 1.0% July drop, as utilities remain depressed by mild weather. Analysts expect a 7% August vehicle assembly rate drop to a 12.6 M clip after the July retooling spike to a 13.6 M cycle-high. Analysts expect a 1.8% growth rate for industrial production in Q3, after contraction rates of 2.0% in Q2 and 0.2% in Q1 that marked the worst two quarters of the expansion. For construction, hours-worked rose by 0.4% in August with a 3k construction payroll rise. Analysts expect a 0.6% August construction spending rise, after surprisingly firm gains since February.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell from 1.3245 to 1.3164
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08:45 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 173k in August
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields were whipsawed
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially fell, then quickly rallied back
FX Action: The dollar initially fell, then quickly rallied back following the employment report, where the NFP outcome was light of expectations, though was offset by upwardly revised back month data. In addition, better wage an hours worked numbers helped the tone of the report overall. EUR-USD initially rallied to 1.1194 before falling to intra day lows of 1.1090, as USD-JPY fell to 118.59, then popped back to N.Y. session highs of 119.63.
08:42 EDTFutures remain sharply lower after jobs report
Stock index futures are still pointing toward a sharply lower open following the monthly jobs report. 173,000 nonfarm jobs were added to payrolls last month, missing analysts consensus projection that payrolls grew 217,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.1%, which was down from 5.3% previously and below the 5.2% consensus expectation. With a bit under an hour until the opening bell, Dow futures are down 179 points below fair value, Nasdaq futures are down 45 points below fair value and S&P futures are down 22 points below fair value.
08:30 EDTU.S. August non-farm payrolls rise 173,000, Unemployment drops to 5.1%
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08:25 EDTFed hawk Lacker said the jobs report won't materially alter the picture
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08:25 EDTU.S. equities followed Asia lower anyway
U.S. equities followed Asia lower anyway even without China open as Japan spiked lower after Economy Minister Amari acknowledged that "monetary tightening was likely in some advanced economies." After that salient reminder with two weeks to go until the FOMC meeting, the Nikkei plunged 2.15% and dragged Europe into the bearish mix with a 2.1% dive in the Euro Stoxx 50. That has been plugged back into the negative feedback loop, leaving the Dow 150-points lower, S&P off 16-points and NASDAQ down 34-points ahead of the all-important U.S. payrolls report. Under the circumstances, a weak or neutral print would probably be the better outcome for equities if it dents the odds of a September 17 rate hike, while a robust payrolls reading could be disastrous at this stage, amplifying dollar gains relative to the ECB's quasi-QE widening yesterday. In either case, there will be a jump in post-data volatility followed by a quick exit by many into the long weekend.
08:10 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
U.S. Employment Preview: August employment data should reveal a 215k (median 214k) headline that matches July's 215k gain. The report will be closely scrutinized as the recent market volatility and weakness in China have renewed the debate about whether the Fed will raise rates at it's September meeting. Volatility weighed on producer sentiment measures for the month and consumer confidence was depressed as well, lending downside risk to the release, which analysts discussed in Monday's commentary.
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