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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 19, 2015
14:25 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
U.S. Leading Indicators Preview: The July leading indicators index is out Thursday and is expected to decline 0.2% (median 0.2%) following a 0.6% increase in June. Recent strength in housing permits has lent strength to the index but the unwind revealed in the July housing starts report will likely pull the LEI down from recent strength.
14:25 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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14:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell broadly
FX Action: The dollar fell broadly after the FOMC minutes, as the committee signaled it wasn't yet ready to raise rates. While September is still on the table, the FX market appears to have discounted September lift-off to a degree. EUR-USD has topped out at 1.1118 so far, up from 1.1035 lows, while USD-JPY has fallen to 123.85 from near 124.25. Cable briefly breached 1.57, as USD-CAD eased under 1.3110 from over 1.3175.
14:10 EDTFOMC minutes revealed "no clear sign" for September hike
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: leaky FOMC minutes caught the bond market
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13:53 EDTSome Fed members feel inflation may not soon meet condition for firming
Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting read, "Many participants indicated that their outlook for sustained economic growth and further improvement in labor markets was key in supporting their expectation that inflation would move up to the Committee's 2 percent objective, and that they would be looking for evidence that the economic outlook was evolving as they anticipated. However, some participants expressed the view that the incoming information had not yet provided grounds for reasonable confidence that inflation would move back to 2 percent over the medium term and that the inflation outlook thus might not soon meet one of the conditions established by the Committee for initiating a firming of policy."
13:50 EDTFOMC minutes show most members feel firming conditions 'approaching'
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13:49 EDTHeadlines from FOMC minutes come out early
Headlines from the Federal Reserve's last meeting minutes came out early after a news agency broke an embargo. The minutes show that most Federal Reserve officials thought economic conditions needed for a rate hike were "approaching."
13:40 EDTChina's Economy To Undercut 7% 2015 GDP Target:
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13:30 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are underperforming nominals
Treasury Action: TIPS are underperforming nominals, not surprisingly, after CPI disappointed forecasts and as commodity prices continue to tumble. The market is also cheaper ahead of Thursday's 5-year TIPS reopening. The 5-year breakeven has fallen to 117 bps, the narrowest since early January when sliding oil prices, Eurozone fears resulting from Greek fallout, and the firming dollar all served to boost disinflation fears. Despite the tame inflation outlook, the TIPS offering should see a decent bid from indirect accounts.
13:00 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped out
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12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures swung back into the green
Euro$ interest rate futures swung back into the green now that stocks have dug their hole deeper and USD-JPY is probing 124.00 as a sign of risk-off trade or as one pundit put it "NASDAQ 5000 hats off". The December 2015 contract is a tick higher now near 99.47 (0.530%) compared to 99.455 earlier (0.545%), while the 1-3.5 tick losses on the deferreds are now 1.0-3.5 tick gains for a swing of 2-7 ticks out the curve.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted eight-session highs
FX Action: USD-CAD posted eight-session highs of 1.3173, just shy of the August 10 peak of 1.3182. The commodity meltdown has been the biggest driver this morning, with copper and oil prices on six-year lows. September NYMEX crude, which will expire at the close today, touch new trend lows of $40.60, while the October contract, taking over as front-month tomorrow has fallen to $41.16 lows. USD-CAD offers are reported into the 1.3200 mark, but a break of 1.3213, the August 5 top, should bring significant stops to bear.
11:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields topped out
Treasury Action: yields topped out after the flash crash in the dollar and mixed up Fedspeak, settling back into a range ahead of the FOMC minutes later, which are likely to be just as inconclusive. The net movement has been pretty minor along the curve with initial weakness relatively counterintuitive following low CPI and dovish Fed remarks. That has left yields a basis point or less higher across the curve, not including the bond yield that is nearly a basis point below opening levels now. The 2-year yield jerked below 0.700% on CPI only to surge to 0.738% highs and then back to 0.72% again, while the 10-year yield dove to 2.17%, vaulted to 2.23% and then eased to 2.19%. The 5-year has settled at 1.58% after a test of 1.60% and the bond yield eased back below 2.85% from a test of 2.90%. The 2s-10s spread has settled back at +146 bp from +148 bp and 5s-30s near +127 bp.
11:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to intra day highs
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10:45 EDTEnergy Action: October NYMEX crude fell to session lows
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of August 14
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10:15 EDTFOMC minutes preview: the minutes are awaited
FOMC minutes preview: the minutes are awaited for clues on a September rate hike risks. Data reports haven't been too decisive, though at the margin they support liftoff next month. The crux for the Committee may be the weight that is placed on international developments and financial market conditions. Of course it's still domestic factors that take precedence, and so September is still on the table. But Fed officials know they don't operate in a vacuum and are sensitive to international developments and the financial market conditions. The June meeting minutes showed that "several" members were uncertain about the pace of growth in China and emerging markets. And recent actions in China suggest the growth is slowing more. Indeed, the April minutes noted that while there were potential downside risks, from overseas, most participant still viewed risks as nearly balance. That view was absent in June.
10:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are slightly lower
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