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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 22, 2016
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: the curve is flattening ahead of next week's FOMC meeting
Treasury Action: the curve is flattening ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and Treasury supply. The 2s-10s gap has traded in the 118 bp to 119 bp area, the flattest levels going back to early 2008. Though no rate action is expected from the Fed, Yellen and Co. are unlikely to produce a policy statement that's as dovish as the comments from the ECB's Draghi or the BoJ's Kuroda, who suggested almost limitless potential for QE. The market is unwinding some bets that the Fed would delay a potential March rate hike now that stock and commodity markets are stabilizing. This should help traders build in further concessions ahead of the 2-, 5-, 7- and 2-year FRN auctions. The wi 2-year has moved up 4 bps today to 0.89%, with the wi 5-year about 4 bps higher at 1.51%, while the wi 7-year is up 3 bps to 1.83%. Despite the selloff, these levels would be the richest in a couple of months. That may be problematic, especially for the 2s and 5s due to uncertainties over the Fed's policy statement. However, rate and policy differentials versus Europe and Japan, some underlying angst over China and the global economy (and some sustained flight to safety), along with month-end, should make for decent sponsorship.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are settling below highs
Treasury Action: yields are settling below highs ahead of the weekend, though stocks have made another minor push higher as oil continues to retrace its steps higher now near $32 bbl. The 2-year yield jumped from 0.837% in Asia to 0.885% session highs, but has since peeled back to 0.869%. The 5-year yield rebounded from 1.431% in Asia to test 1.51% stateside, only to ease to 1.484%. The 10-year yield surged from 2.02% session lows to highs of 2.088% before slipping back to 2.057%. And the 30-year yield swung from 2.792% to 2.861%, and then eased to 2.827%. Despite this pullback from highs in yields, that's left the belly of the curve underperforming, led by the 5-year note. Accordingly the 2s-10s spread at +119 bp is inside earlier wides near +120 bp, while the 5s-30s spread has flattened 2 bp to +134 bp. With coupon supply next week front-loaded (2s, 5s, 7s), that could limit curve steepening.
14:01 EDTInternals confirm strong market
Stocks have moved back toward session highs, with the Nasdaq leading the averages with a gain of more than 2.4%. The Dow is the laggard, with a gain of just 1.2%. Oil prices, which have been higher all day, remain up more than 7% and are approaching $32 a barrel. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 5:1 and up volume is also far ahead of down volume.
13:35 EDTNY Fed's 3-day reverse repo totaled $60.3 B, with only 34 counterparties
NY Fed's 3-day reverse repo totaled $60.3 B, with only 34 counterparties. This is the smallest operation since the Fed began its tightening, with the lowest number of counterparties. The funds rate has been very stable, equilibrating around the 0.36% level, essentially the mid-point of the current target range.
13:20 EDTEnergy Action: Baker-Hughes reported its weekly oil rig count
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13:07 EDTBaker-Hughes Rig Count N. Amer. data reported
Week of 1/22 Baker-Hughes Rig Count N. Amer. at 887
13:05 EDTCLSA U.S. banks and energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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12:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has backed up from lows
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11:40 EDTMorgan Stanley economists are forecasting flat U.S. Q4 GDP
Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting flat U.S. Q4 GDP with a still-low 1.8% in 2016, abiding by their estimate of a 20% recession probability in 2016, while noting that recent tightening in financial conditions since December equates with 4 Fed hikes. But if the economy decelerates to 1.0-1.5%, they expect the Fed to refrain from further rate hikes this year -- for a "one and done" result. After today's reports analysts are still estimating a more optimistic 1.3% gain in Q4 GDP (released next Friday after the FOMC) along with a 2.0% rise in Q1. The most recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow survey on Wednesday forecast a 0.7% rise in Q4 GDP, compared to the 1.0% median estimate by Blue Chip economists. Their next update will be released after the FOMC with durables report on Jan-28.
11:35 EDTS&P upgrades Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC+'
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC+'. The upgrade reflects its assessment that the Greek government is broadly complying with the terms of its EUR86 billion financial support program financed by eurozone member states via the European Stability Mechanism. "In particular, by the end of March we expect a compromise to be reached on pension reform that will balance the government's preference to raise social security contributions and consolidate the separate pension funds into a single system, with creditors' and the IMF's focus on spending cuts to narrow an unsustainably high pension deficit, currently estimated at 9% of GDP," S&P stated.
11:25 EDTFed policy outlook:
Fed policy outlook: next week's FOMC isn't likely to follow the more dovish lead from the ECB and BoJ. Remember too there won't be a press conference from Yellen, nor any forecast updates. While no one was expecting any further rate action, the recent debacle in stocks, energy, China, etc, have reduced market expectations for a March hike, though analysts haven't thrown in the towel. Indeed, the Fed is unlikely to play its hand one way or another. There won't be any pre-determination on policy, especially as global financial conditions are so jumpy. Look for the Fed to reiterate the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with further improvement in the labor market. There could be some toning down of the view on consumer spending and business fixed investment, which were termed "solid" in December. But don't expect the Committee to highlight the downside risks (a la Draghi) and suggest the erosion in Q4 growth and the downdraft in stocks are harbingers of significant deterioration in GDP. Instead, it's more likely to reiterate the transitory nature of the weakness in oil prices. In terms of the timing, size of future adjustments, the Fed should reiterate it will "take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments." The FOMC will continue to "carefully monitor" inflation trends. Committee members can feel somewhat confident in their inflation hopes given the rise in y/y core CPI to 2.1%, which will help offset the negative effects of the plunge in oil and commodity prices.
11:05 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower having unwound some of their recent outperformance on the equity slump earlier in the week that has since been reversed with oil prices. Hopes for global stimulus from Europe, China and potentially Japan has given stocks pretext for a short-covering rally and that has subdued the rate futures. The March 2016 contract is 2-ticks lower near 99.33 (0.67% implied 3-month yield), while the deferred contracts are 3-9 ticks lower out the back in deference to opening gains on stocks and oil. The FOMC is likely to remain cagey at next week's meeting about the outlook, with no chance seen of a move that soon anyway, but markets convinced that the Fed's "gradual" tightening pace will be more like "glacial."
10:30 EDTA 14.7% December U.S. existing home sales surge
A 14.7% December U.S. existing home sales surge to a 5.46 M rate beat estimates, and reversed the 10.5% November plunge to a 4.76 M clip from a 5.32 M October rate as the November regulatory distortion from the "Know Before You Owe" initiative was reversed. Inventories fell 12.3% in December, while the median price rose 1.9% to defy the seasonal downdraft. Existing home sales are tracked at closings, and the mild weather in November and December may boost sales in next month's January report, even though temperatures fell through the month and analysts're now seeing a big East Coast storm. Analysts saw a 6.5% 2015 existing home sales climb after a 2.9% 2014 post "taper-tantrum" drop that still leaves sales below the mid-2013 rate, and the current sales rate remains below the 5.58 M cycle-high pace from July. Analysts're seeing 7%-12% growth in most housing measures, with lean inventories and a price uptrend with gains concentrated in Q2 of each year. Analysts have cyclical gains of 58% for existing home sales and 40% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 82% for new home sales and 140% for both housing starts, and permits.
10:20 EDTU.S. leading indicators dipped 0.2% to 123.7 in December
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied to two-week highs
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10:15 EDTU.S. December existing home sales climbed 14.7% to 5.460 M
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their rebound
Treasury Action: yields extended their rebound though the surge in existing home sales was inflated by front-running of mortgage requirement changes around the turn of the year, while LEI sank. Equities are still on track to bolt higher at the open, padding gains with the progress in crude back over $31 bbl. The 2-year yield has backed up over 0.88%, while the 10-year yield nosed over 2.08% from 2.05% lows earlier. That's left the curve steeper, as the 2s-10s spread pushes through +120 bp.
10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has come back down to earth
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