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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 9, 2016
10:25 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates
The U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. Analysts still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast. The Q4 GDP growth hit reflects a $6 B subtraction from wholesale inventories that accompanies a $6 B hit for factory inventories and an $8 B downward bump in construction, but a partially offsetting $11 B boost in net exports. Our 1.8% Q1 GDP growth estimate assumes a $22 B inventory subtraction that leaves a $34 B accumulation rate, following a $28.9 (was $16.9) B Q4 subtraction and a larger $28.0 B hit in Q3 -- as the inventory overbuild through Q2 of 2015 unwinds to a sustainable rate of climb by Q1. Analysts expect a 0.1% December business inventory rise that follows a 0.2% drop in November. Today's 0.1% drop for wholesale inventories accompanies a 0.2% rise for factories and an assumed 0.3% rise for retailers. The overall business I/S ratio should rise to a 1.39 expansion-high in December from a 1.38 prior expansion-high in October and November.
10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar shrugged off the in-line dip in wholesale sales data, though had been on the rise versus the yen in particular, as Wall Street turned opening losses into gains. USD-JPY is up better than 100 points from N.Y. session lows of 114.32, while EUR-USD has traded back into 1.1265, after touching 1.1300 earlier.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%
U.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%. November's 1.0% drop in sales was revised lower to -1.3%. The 0.3% slip in November inventories was bumped down to -0.4%. Sales weakness was concentrated in petroleum (-4.5%) and groceries (-1.1%). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.32, holding at the cycle high, and is the highest since mid 2009. Though not surprising, the weaker than expected data are disappointing and could weigh further on GDP forecasts.
10:03 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
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10:01 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
December Wholesale Trade Inventories down -0.1% vs consensus of -0.1% for the month
10:00 EDTHedge fund liquidation of tech momentum winners,
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS breakevens continue to tumble
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09:53 EDTMarket drops at opening bell, recovering in early trading
Stock futures fell as oil prices weakened during the pre-market trading session. The futures action led to another triple digit decline for the Dow, while the S&P fell to its lowest level since April 2014. Oil prices struggle to stay above $30 per barrel while gold prices are flat but traded above $1,200 an ounce for the first time since June of last year. The market is recovering in early trading, however, and the averages have regained the flat line. In early trading, the Dow is down 8 points, the Nasdaq is up 12 points and the S&P is roughly flat.
09:10 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook: Treasury has a $24 B in 3-year note
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08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 2/6 Redbook Store Sales up 0.6% for the year
08:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures probed higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.3940
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08:30 EDTU.S. equities are back in the woodshed
U.S. equities are back in the woodshed after Asia took over from Europe as the market whipping boy with a 5.4% plunge in Japan's N-225 after the yen surged to the low 114s and the 10-year JGB went negative. Without China to flog, Japan was the next best proxy for selling, though crude oil rebounded back above $30 bbl despite some bearish supply/price calls by the IEA. Deutsche Bank made the unusual move of reassuring investors that it has sufficient funds and liquidity to services its riskier debt, despite a surge in its CDS and its shares falling another 1% for a total of -10% since Monday. European shares gave up initial gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reversing 2.0% lower and the German DAX is -1.5%, with the periphery -2.7%. The yen is off its best levels, though still under 115.00, while risk proxy gold has pulled back to the $1,195 area. The Dow is 141-points lower, S&P reclined 17-points and NASDAQ faltered 38-points. Coca-Cola fell after reporting a decline in sales, while Regeneron sank 4.5% after slower sales. Deja vu all over again.
08:05 EDTFed funds opened at 0.38%
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08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales declined 2.6% in the week ended February 6
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07:56 EDTCLSA banks analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Analyst Mayo, hosts Doug Braunstein, Founder & Managing Partner of Hudson Executive Capital, who discusses his firm's approach to investing and constructive activism in banks on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on February 18 at 11 am.
07:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
Energy Action: NYMEX crude ranged between $30.60 and $29.72 overnight, currently at session lows into the N.Y. open. The IEA said overnight that "with the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise." This is backed by Iraq pumping at record highs, Saudi increasing its output, and Iran planning to produce more. Calls from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for sub-$20 oil based on storage constraints for the former, and a stronger dollar for the latter, are looking like better bets this week. RBOB gasoline is at a fresh seven-year low of $0.9356/gallon, and down nearly 30% from the start of the year.
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