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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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October 20, 2014
13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck
FX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck on the bottom of its N.Y. range, trading 106.80-107.00 virtually all session. News that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund is rising the ratio of domestic stocks to 25% from 12% could result in fewer official yen sales in the coming months, which bigger picture, may weigh some on USD-JPY. The initial reaction overnight was a higher USD-JPY, as domestic markets rallied nearly 4%, though going forward, as retirement fund demand for dollars and euros eases, some USD-JPY support may be removed.
13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is still expected to end QE this month
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12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more put buying
Euro$ interest rate options: more put buying has been spotted, including the purchase of 10k in Green March 68 puts and a purchase of 5k in Short December 87/90/92 put butterflies. Yet underlying futures continue to hold up and build on opening gains, though stocks and longer yields continue to inch higher in afternoon trade. The December 2014 contract is still a half-tick higher of 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks higher.
11:55 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads have narrowed
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
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11:18 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 16:30
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday. It's up $1 from last week's $33 B volume, and is $4 B higher than the September 29 sale. Supply is thin this week with just the $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening, and bills, including today's $54 B 3- and 6-month offering.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:00 EDTChina's heavy slate of data will help drive markets
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10:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 6.2%
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.00 B to $1.25 B in notes
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10:00 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Unwinding Q3 Strength:
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched intra day lows of 106.79
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09:36 EDTIBM pushes Dow sharply lower as volatility persists
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session following the disappointing earnings from tech giant and Dow member IBM (IBM). The bulk of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's drop is due to IBM, shares which are heavily weighted due to its high price per share. The market continues to exhibit its extreme volatility and it will have major headwinds to overcome if it is to get back to positive ground. Investors will be trying to discern if IBM’s miss is indicative of company specific issue or a broader slowdown in tech before another giant, Apple (AAPL), reports on its results today after the closing bell. In early trading, the Dow is down 93 points, the Nasdaq is up 1 point and the S&P is down 2 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today amid calmer market conditions. Only $7.5 B priced last week, the third lowest volume of the year to date. Constellation Brands is pricing $800 M in 5- and 10-year noncallable senior notes. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are are also on tap. The former is selling benchmark 5-year notes. The latter has a benchmark 10-year deal. KfW is marketing benchmark sized 3-year notes. There isn't much competition from the Treasury this week with just bills and a 30-year TIPS reopening on the auction block.
09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are starting out on the wrong foot
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08:38 EDTiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund volatility flat on wide movement
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund overall option implied volatility of 8 is near its 26-week average of 7 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
08:35 EDTFed dove Rosengren said ending QE is warranted by the improved job market
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08:35 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher speaking on CNBC via phone
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08:25 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading just under $93.00
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFed Governor Powell will take part in a webinar
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:32 EDTU.S. Labor Secretary speaks on the economy at a luncheon meeting
U.S. Labor Secretary Perez discusses the U.S. economy and labor situation in a speech entitled "Shared Prosperity: Building an Economy that Works for Everyone," at a National Press Club luncheon meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on October 20 at 1 pm.
07:31 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Tarullo to speak at workshop
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07:30 EDTFCC to hold a consumer advisory committee meeting
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07:28 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York President speaks at workshop
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07:24 EDTFutures lower to begin the week
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07:13 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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06:09 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 20
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03:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar was mostly firmer
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October 18, 2014
10:27 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 11:00 . Current consensus is 6.0
10:27 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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10:27 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
August FHFA House Price Index M/M change will be reported at 09:00 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 10:00
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10:27 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
September Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.10M
October 17, 2014
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A "V-shaped" recovery on stocks signaled an all-clear on recent volatility on Friday, or not. Successive rounds of dovish Fedspeak this week proved a timely placebo for the European anxiety attack that spread across the Pond faster than Ebola in a pressurized cabin. In either case the sentiment swings this week were no laughing matter and spoke to the complacency build-up thanks to QE3, which is nearing its home stretch. Housing and sentiment data was a bit brighter to round out the week and Europe responded to asset purchase promises from the ECB and dovish BoE-speak as well, which completed the asset role-reversal.
14:45 EDTU.S. Week Ahead: consolidation could be the watch word
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13:50 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:15 EDTFed QE3 nearly dead, all hail QE4:
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12:50 EDTTresury Option Action: some bullish put selling
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12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some more vol selling
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed headline gains for both September housing starts and October Michigan sentiment, though the 6.3% starts climb included surprising restraint in the single family and "under construction" figures that lowered prospects for the housing sector into year-end. The sentiment climb to 86.4 set a new cycle-high in October, but the Ebola-scare in the second half of the month should prompt an atypical downward revision in the final report. Today's stock market bounce marks the best news of the day going into the weekend, despite the morning's reported headline gains, and if markets continue to climb next week analysts may see less of a hit to the remaining October confidence reports.
11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's a typically quiet session
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11:00 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5
U.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5 down some 18% compared yesterday's 25.20 close and Wednesday's peak of 31.06, as the melt-up in equities thanks to firm data, earnings and reversal in European equities all conspire to take some starch out of the VIX again as U.S. stocks rally some 1.25-1.55%. As noted yesterday, if stocks continue to weather the global margin call, the retreat of the VIX back down to the 20.0-15.0 zone "could be as sharp as its recent rise." However, it would take a resumption of equity liquidation/liquidity trap to put 37.5 late-November 2011 level back in play, with 46.8 above.
10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower extending their declines as the world's asset markets rebalance after this week's big squeeze and liquidity trap. Even as Europe cheers the ECB's inexorable slide toward asset purchases and the Fed's inevitable backing away from premature rate hikes, that keeps the "Bernanke Put" alive a little longer and a temporary floor under stocks. Conversely, that's put a lid on gains on underlying euro$ rate futures, with the December 2014 contract flat at 99.755, the December 2015 4-ticks lower at 99.22 (0.78%) and the deferreds 1-7 ticks lower out the curve. Fedspeak has retained a dovish slant, however, likely keeping a nearby floor under the futures as well.
10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb to an 86.4 new cycle-high
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up to session highs
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar continued its advance
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10:05 EDTU.S. preliminary October consumer confidence rose to 86.4
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09:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:46 EDTJefferies media analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:34 EDTGuggenheim analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD revealed little initial reaction
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09:05 EDTSeptember gains for U.S. housing starts and permits
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08:58 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped to attention
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08:53 EDTBofA/Merrill holds analyst/industry conference call on non-cleared margin rules
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up broadly
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08:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy
Fed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy in her prepared remarks. She stuck to the conference topic of inequality, and said it is of great concern to her. Inequality is estimated to be near the highest in a century. She thinks inheritance is a significant source of economic opportunity, while the higher costs of education are a limiting factor.
08:46 EDTWeek of 10/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
08:46 EDTWeek of 10/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 6.3% to 1.017 M pace in September
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest sharply higher open
Stock futures continue to suggest a sharply higher open for the broader market. The housing starts and building permits reports for September showed increases of 6.3% and 1.5% respectively, versus expectations for starts to be up 5.4% and permits to rise 2.7%.
08:31 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold an energy analyst/industry conference call
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08:27 EDTBofA/Merrill retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied to $84.45
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08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:00 EDTBoston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE
Boston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE plans, in comments from a CNBC interview. But he acknowledged that QE4 could be considered if the economy gets weak. However, it's premature to make judgments on the market turbulence. Though Europe faces significant problems, the fundamental outlook hasn't really changed. And so far, there hasn't been enough of a shift in U.S. data to alter views either. So he still believes the first rate hike should be seen in 2015. Rosengren is one of the most dovish on the FOMC, but it doesn't appear that he is on board with more stimulus yet.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries and other core sovereigns are lower
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar majors settled
FX Update: The dollar majors settled after a volatile week while European and most Asian stock markets managed to recoup some of the ground lost this week. EUR-USD oscillated in a narrow range around 1.2800. USD-JPY lifted to the 106.50 area, achieving a two-day high and managing to climb above its 50-day moving average situated at 106.22. Generally firmer equity markets was conducive for the yen to give back some of its recent gains, although Japanese markets were the notable exception today with the Nikkei closing 1.4% for the worse. AUD-USD posted at 0.8734-0.8791 range, remaining comfortably within yesterday's range. Cable edged out a four-day high at 1.6117 but failed to sustain gains. BoE chief economist Haldane said in a speech that "rates could remain lower for longer." An accidental re-release of the RBNZ's September statement caused only a brief stir as it generated rehashed headlines about the Kiwi being to strong. NZD-USD dove over 50 pips to a low of 0.7878 before rebounding smartly to near net unchanged levels once the error became understood.
07:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen
Fedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen who will be speaking before an "Inequality of Economic Opportunity in the U.S." conference from 8:30 ET. This seems an unlikely venue for any major policy hints, though the topic could lend itself to confirming her dovish views on the labor market. Her speech will follow welcoming remarks from Boston Fed dove Rosengren.
07:10 EDTFuture suggest big upside at market open
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07:04 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:03 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at conference
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07:01 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren provides opening remarks
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren provides the opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 58th Economic Conference: Inequality of Economic Opportunity being held in Boston on October 17 at 8:30 am.
07:01 EDTJMP Securities to hold a conference
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 17
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05:52 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is today, October 17, 2014
October 16, 2014
16:09 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
August Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities at $74.5B
16:09 EDTWeek of 10/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:12 EDTJMP Securities to hold a conference
Life Sciences Private Company Conference is being held in New York on October 17.
15:11 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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15:07 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Boston to hold a conference
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market continued on Thursday to unwind the bulk of its convulsive rally from the day prior after the global margin call took a breather and Wall Street recovered some poise after Europe slashed its losses in half into their close. Data was more mixed that commentators led the viewers to believe, however, after a 23k drop in jobless claims and 1% gain in industrial production was met with pullbacks in the Philly Fed and NAHB housing indices. But the swing factor was dovish Fedspeak from Lockhart, Kocherlakota and Bullard, who hinted at a resumption of QE if things did not go according to plan. Moreover, relenting of the equity liquidation and rebound in oil prices helped put a floor under yields.
14:55 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:49 EDTPiper Jaffray healthcare analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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14:40 EDTU.S. TIC inflows preview:
U.S. TIC inflows preview: Treasury International Capital inflows are forecast to increase by $30.0 B in August from a $57.7 B inflow in July. For more detail, see the TIC website.
14:15 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not comment on the economy or policy
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13:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility retreated to a base near 25.0
U.S. VIX equity volatility retreated to a base near 25.0 compared to Wednesday's peak of 31.06, but is finding some traction ahead of yesterday's 24.73 lows, even as stocks continue to ride the "Bullard put" higher. If stocks continue to weather the global margin call, the retreat of the VIX back down to the 20.0-15.0 zone could be as sharp as its recent rise. However, a resumption of equity liquidation could put 37.5 late-November 2011 level back in play, with 46.8 above.
13:30 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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12:45 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads widened back
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12:44 EDTWeek of 10/25 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY got a boost
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12:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect the FOMC to delay the end of QE
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11:50 EDTU.S. equities have forged back into the green
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been on the decline
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $0.188 B in Treasuries
NY Fed bought $0.188 B in Treasuries dated from February 15, 2025 through August 15, 2028. The Street offered $2.09 B. The small buyback is having little effect on the market. Indeed, Treasury gains have been erased as stocks pare their losses. The rebound on Wall Street was in part motivated by Fed dove Bullard's comment that delaying the end of QE should be considered.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening for Thursday
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11:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields are backing higher again
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11:00 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 10
Crude oil inventories 8.92M build vs. consensus of 2.45M build. Gasoline inventories 4.0M draw vs. consensus of 1.7M draw. Distillates 1.52M draw vs. consensus of 1.8M draw.
10:55 EDTMore Ebola news: a Yale-New Haven Hospital case
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10:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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10:35 EDTFed dove Bullard said the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE
Fed dove Bullard said the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE, in his comments from a Bloomberg Radio interview. Though U.S. fundamentals remain strong, he thinks much of the current market turmoil results from downgrades to the outlook for Europe. He said the path of bond purchases should also be data dependent, and would tie it to inflation expectations. Like his colleague Kocherlakota, he's concerned at the lack of progress on attaining the 2% target. Of course the program is expected to end with this month's FOMC meeting.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 10
Gas inventories 94 Bcf build vs. consensus of 91 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTFed's Bullard tells Bloomberg delay in QE end should be considered
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10:15 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 5 points to 54 in October
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar inched slightly lower
FX Action: The dollar inched slightly lower on the back of the about as-expected Philly Fed index, though softer NAHB home price index. USD-JPY remains just above 106.00, while EUR-USD is stuck near 1.2650. Wall Street is well above its worst levels, as are yields.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to migrate higher
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10:11 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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10:11 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 1.8 points to 20.7 in October
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 1.8 points to 20.7 in October after falling 5.5 points to 22.5 in September. The employment component dropped to 12.1 from 21.2. The workweek slide to -1.3 from 4.4. New orders improved to 17.3 from 15.5. Price paid were little changed at 27.6 from 27.0, but prices received jumped sharply to 20.8 from 8.8. The 6-month general business activity index dipped to 54.5 from 56.0. The 6-month employment component declined to 28.0 from 39.6, with capital expenditures falling to 18.9 from 23.7, and prices paid at 32.9 from 46.2.
10:00 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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10:00 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to hold steady at 59 in October after home builder confidence posted a 4-point gain in September to the highest level since November 2005. For more, see the NAHB website.
09:55 EDTAero Club of Washington, D.C. holds a luncheon meeting with FAA Head
Michael Huerta, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, delivers remarks on the need for airlines and other industry players to coalesce behind a plan for the agency’s future as Congress prepares to reauthorize it in 2015 at a Luncheon Meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on October 16 at 12 pm with webcasted remarks at 1:10 pm. Webcast Link
09:50 EDTThe 1.0% September U.S. industrial production pop beat estimates
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 10/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 36.2
09:38 EDTMarket extends recent slide with steep drop at open
Stock futures indicated a sharply lower open and the broader market followed through accordingly at the bell. Less than stellar earnings from some of the country’s largest corporations and other in-focus "momentum" names added to the ongoing weakness that has been prompted by pessimism over global growth, sliding oil prices and the Ebola scare. The S&P 500 has once again moved into negative ground year-to-date and the market may re-test yesterday’s lows. In early trading, the Dow is down 113 points, the Nasdaq is down 43 points and the S&P is down 17 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production rebounded 1.0% in September
U.S. industrial production rebounded 1.0% in September after dipping 0.2% in August (revised from -0.1%). That pushed capacity utilization up to 79.3% versus 78.7% previously (revised from 78.8%), the highest since mid 2008. Manufacturing production increased 0.5%, reversing the 0.5% August drop (revised from 0.4%). Motor vehicle and parts increased extended declines, however, falling 1.4% following the 7.0% drop previously (was -7.6%). Excluding autos, production surged 1.1%. Computer production remained hot, rising 0.8% after a 1.0% August surge (revised from 1.3%). Machinery production dipped 0.1%. Utilities climbed 3.9%, while mining was up 1.8%.
09:20 EDTAtlanta Fed dove Lockhart: the labor market is far from normal
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at 1.1361
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09:11 EDTPiper Jaffray biotech/specialty pharma analysts analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are slumping again
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09:05 EDTMore from Plosser:
More from Plosser: he acknowledged that the recent focus has been on outside the U.S., with weakness in Europe, in answering audience questions. But he doesn't believe that it's sufficient to derail the U.S. economy. Labor markets are changing in a fundamental way, he suspects, though he has no idea what "full employment" looks like. Fed policy can't fix the economy's short term issues, but works over the long run. The stronger dollar is affecting oil prices, and the net effect of the resulting price drop is a positive.
08:55 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:50 EDTThe 23k U.S. initial claims plunge to a new cycle-low 264k
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up into the claims report
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dropped 23k to 264k in the week ended October 11
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08:33 EDTFutures suggest another market plunge
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08:32 EDTCBOE S&P 500 Skew Index low at 111.31
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:15 EDTFed's Plosser remains optimistic on the economy
Fed's Plosser remains optimistic on the economy and cautioned the markets to prepare for a sooner than expected rate increase. He is still forecasting about 3% growth for the second half of the year. Of course he is one of the most hawkish on the FOMC, so these are not new sentiments. He's not suggesting a rate hike yet, however. But being "data dependent" means that policy needs to begin changing, and adjusting forward guidance would be an appropriate first step.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are off to the races again
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are off to the races again as the rout in equities continues. Flight to safety has knocked the 10-year Treasury yield back down another 15 bps to hit 1.97% before it edged back up to the 2.0% level. The German Bund traded as low as 0.71%, while Japan's 10-year JGB tested 0.46%. However, peripheral bonds in Europe are being punished and spreads are widening sharply amid worries over Greece ability to exit the bailout. Stocks are sharply lower again as growth and Ebola fears grip investors. Oil prices continue to weaken. Overnight data saw China M2 rising, and the Eurozone trade surplus widening. Today's U.S. reports on September industrial production, the October Philly Fed index, August Treasury capital flows (TIC report) and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely monitored for what they imply on growth and market flows. There is a host of Fedspeak today from hawks and doves, including Plosser, Lockhart, Kocherlakota, and Bullard. Fed Chair Yellen makes a public appearance, but she doesn't have a speech and there will be no media Q&A. Treasury announces details a its 30-year TIPS reopening and weekly bill sales. There are earnings announcements from Goldman Sachs, Google, AMD, Blackstone, Delta, Mattel, Philip Morris, UnitedHealth, and SanDisk.
07:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded on the $79 handle
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded on the $79 handle for the first time in four-years, down nearly $2/bbl from Wednesday's close to a low of $78.78. The usual culprits are behind the latest move, with growth fears, and what some are calling an over-supplied market continuing to drive prices lower.
07:39 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:36 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard provides keynote
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07:32 EDTPresident George of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City speaks
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President George speaks at the Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for 21st Century Conference being held in New Brunswick, NJ on October 16 at 12:15 pm.
07:30 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President speaks at conference
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic policy
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07:25 EDTMarkets Media to hold a summit
The Global Markets Summit is being held in London, England on October 16.
07:24 EDTNYSSA to hold a conference
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07:24 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:19 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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07:19 EDTHoulihan Lokey to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar rebounded
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07:03 EDTEuropean Food & Ankle Society to hold a conference
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar rebounded
FX Update: The dollar rebounded as the market turned to the U.S. currency in an risk averse environment as European stocks turned sharply lower. News that Spain's auction of 10-year paper fell short of target was both a symptom and a risk-off catalyst, while the Ebola outbreak is inviting comparisons in the media to the economically disruptive 2003 SARS outbreak in Asia. EUR-USD dove to the low 1.27s from levels around 1.2800. USD-JPY dropped back to the mid-105s from levels above 106. Not surprisingly, the AUD underperformed, briefly breaching 0.8700 versus the USD and declining to a five-month low against the EUR.
06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 16
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05:53 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar has consolidated Wednesday's losses
FX Update: The dollar has consolidated Wednesday's losses seen after soggy U.S. PPI and retail sales data. Asian stocks continued to tumble, and another risk-off day looks likely in Europe amid fears about Ebola, which is inviting comparisons to the economically disruptive SARS outbreak in Asia in 2003. This backdrop may curtail dollar losses. EUR-USD has trod a narrow range in the low 1.28s before dipping below here in early London trade, putting yesterday's three-week peak at 1.2886 out of scope. USD-JPY has posted a narrow range in the low 106s, near to the New York closing level and some way above yesterday's five-week low at 105.19. BoJ policymaker Iwata said that monetary easing is working.
October 15, 2014
23:00 EDTChina reported foreign direct investment rose to $9 B in September,
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20:55 EDTAsian shares are catching down
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16:30 EDTEBay earnings popped out after the close
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15:50 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The asset markets turned convulsive again on Wednesday as the wall of worry just got too top heavy and tipped over on investors below. This collided with fresh information that the cleanest dirty shirt in the global economy -- the U.S. -- actually did need to be tossed in the laundry with rest. GDP forecasts were downgraded by Action and others following a Trifecta of damp readings on retail sales, Empire State and PPI. The sole bright spot was a bounce in MBA refis, while stocks wrestled with the bad news, including the spread of Ebola in Spain and Dallas, a Greek meltdown and the potential dissolution of a $50 B US-UK merger over tax dis-inversion changes. A high volume plunge on European stocks was followed by Wall Street and accompanied by significant break lower in bond yields.
15:40 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher said it's premature to talk about another round of QE
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15:22 EDTProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil volatility increases, oil near four-year low
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil October call option implied volatility is at 83, November is at 66, January is at 57; compared to its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
15:00 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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14:33 EDTWeek of 10/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated "modest" to "moderate" growth
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating above spike lows
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14:14 EDTFed says recent economic growth 'modest to moderate'
Economic growth was "modest to moderate" in 11 of the 12 Fed's districts recently, the central bank reported in its Beige Book today. Consumer spending rose at a slight to moderate pace in most areas, the central bank stated. Several districts said that retailers were "relatively optimistic" about the outlook for the rest of the year. Manufacturing grew in most areas, but residential construction and real estate activity were mixed, the Fed reported. Commercial construction and commercial loan volumes expanded in most districts, but consumer loan demand was mixed and refinancing activity was low or reduced in some areas, the Fed said. The pace of job growth was little changed compared to prior months, and some employers had difficulty finding qualified workers for certain positions. Nonetheless pricing pressures remained subdued, the Fed stated.
14:10 EDTFX Action: Not much FX market reaction
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14:03 EDTPiper Jaffray's medtech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with senior strategist/technical analyst Craig Johnson focus on the MedTech covered universe ahead of 3Q14 results on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 15 at 2 pm.
14:01 EDTFed Beige Book shows 'modest to moderate' economic growth
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13:50 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads rebounded from narrows
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13:35 EDTFed Beige Book preview:
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13:30 EDTU.S. CDC update: the 2nd Ebola nurse
U.S. CDC update: the 2nd Ebola nurse will be transferred to Emory after falling ill with Ebola, but is clinically stable. Both nurses had extensive contact with now deceased patient Duncan during his most infectious stage and the second nurse should not have traveled on a commercial flight. Three other contacts are being checked before she went in isolation. The CDC speculates that the Texas staff may have put on "too many layers of protective apparel" in the early days of Duncan's treatment (either something is being lost in translation on this last bit or the CDC has no idea what they're doing). Markets have resumed their decent as the wall of worry on Greece, Ebola, M&A, deflation and global growth comes home to roost.
12:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar stabilized
FX Action: The dollar stabilized into the London close, with the greenback generally near mid-session ranges versus major currencies. EUR-USD appears to be a bit strained near 1.2800, though USD-JPY struggled over the 106.00 mark, as equities move back toward session lows. Another Wall Street break lower could see USD-JPY test earlier 105.20 lows, with the 105,00 the next target.
11:52 EDTWeek of 10/24 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auction results were ok
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11:50 EDTEuropean equities continued to plunge into their close
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11:45 EDTWeakness in today's U.S. economic reports
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11:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed bought $1.036 B in notes
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11:30 EDTSecond Dallas Ebola nurse had traveled by air
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11:15 EDTU.S. Treasury posted a $105.8 B budget surplus in September
U.S. Treasury posted a $105.8 B budget surplus in September, a 40.9% y/y improvement compared to the $75.1 B print for last year. Receipts climbed 16.7% y/y, while outlays rose 8.6% y/y. The fiscal year deficit came in at $483.4 B, a 28.9% y/y improvement compared to the $680.2 B red ink amount for fiscal 2013.
11:00 EDTFresh Ebola rumors hit markets that the Barcelona Airport
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10:55 EDTTreasury Action: the 34 bp drop in the 10-year yield to 1.86% earlier
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back up
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10:35 EDTThe 0.2% August U.S. business inventory rise undershot estimates
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10:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility reversed to session lows of 24.64
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10:25 EDTFed policy outlook:
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY crashed to 105.20 lows
FX Action: USD-JPY crashed to 105.20 lows, after opening near 107.00, levels last seen on September 8. The pairing has bounced back over 106.30 since. Initial support comes in at 105.00 now, though another downdraft on Wall Street will be needed to test that level. Stocks remains sharply lower, though have managed to claw back better than half of their early sharp losses.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back from lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.2% in August, with sales down 0.4%
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10:05 EDTWholesale Fed repricing in euro$ interest rate futures
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09:55 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
U.S. business inventories preview: August business inventories are expected to grow 0.3%, with shipments down 0.1%. The recent high for inventory growth was 1.4% in March '11 and the low was -2.1% in December '08. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 for a sixth month. report.
09:45 EDTThe 0.3% retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto decline
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09:44 EDTMarket opens sharply lower, S&P erases year-to-date gains
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09:37 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold October luncheon meeting
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09:35 EDTBond gurus blink: Fink of Blackrock
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09:15 EDTThe Empire State sentiment plunge to 6.17
The Empire State sentiment plunge to 6.17 in October more than reversed the September pop to a 27.54 five-year high from 14.69 in August, versus a 0.83 six-month low last November. The ISM-adjusted Empire State measure fell more modestly, to 50.1 from 53.4 in September and 52.9 in August, versus a 55.3 four-year high in June that was also seen in May of 2012, and a 46.6 three-year low in both December and June of 2013. Today's October Empire drop leads an expected Q4 moderation in the vehicle assembly rate after a big Q3 pop. Analysts expect an October Philly Fed drop to 18.0 from 22.5, a Richmond Fed drop to 9.0 from 14.0, a Dallas Fed up-tick to 11.0 from 10.8, an ISM down-tick to 56.5 from 56.6, and an ISM-NMI decline to 57.0 from 58.6. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to fall to 54 in October from a 56 cycle-high through Q3 that was also seen in February and March of 2011, versus the same 54 through Q2, 52 through Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.
09:10 EDTThe 0.1% U.S. September PPI drop
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are significantly lower
U.S. equities are significantly lower and have compounded losses after the trifecta of damp retail, PPI and Empire data returns. Another round of heavy losses in Europe set the early tone on Wall Street with the Dow 157-points lower, S&P off 24-points and NASDAQ down 45-points ahead of the opening gong. The "weakest link" prior to the data was the 27% plunge in Shire shares of the UK, which suffered after AbbVie (-4%) of the U.S. warned it might drop its $51 B merger with the company after inversion tax law changes. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 2%, while the Italian MIB is 2.9% lower after Italy joined France in challenging EU budget guidelines. Blackrock climbed 1.5% after an earnings beat and BofA also gained 0.5% after posting a Q3 profit despite a $16.7 B mortgage settlement. AMEX and EBay are due after the close. Business inventories and the Fed Beige Book are also on deck.
08:55 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility elevated at 53
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08:50 EDTU.S. PPI posted a 0.1% decline, with the core rate unchanged
U.S. PPI posted a 0.1% decline, with the core rate unchanged, both below forecasts. There were no revisions to the unchanged headline reading for August, and the 0.1% core. Goods prices were down 0.2% after slipping 0.3% previously, with foods prices off 0.7% and energy down 0.7%, compared to respective declines of 0.5% and 1.5% in August. Services prices dipped 0.1% versus a 0.3% August gain. This is yet another soft report for a trifecta today.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell after the mix of data
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08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index fell 21.4 points to 6.2 in October
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over to fresh lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in September, and slipped 0.2% excluding autos
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08:36 EDTFutures sink following release of several economic data points
Stock futures fell following the release of several economic data points. The Empire Manufacturing Index had a reading of 6.17 versus expectations of 20.25. An advance retail sales index was down 0.3% versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%. while the core reading which excludes autos and gasoline showed a decline of 0.1% versus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. Producer prices fell 0.1%during September versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. The core producer prices reading which excludes food and energy was unchanged versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
U.S. PPI Preview: September overall-PPI is expected to remain flat (median 0.1%) with a 0.1% core index figure (median 0.1%). The flat U.S. August PPI figure with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. The September trade price report revealed the expected headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August
08:20 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched five-year highs
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude slid to new trend lows
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07:46 EDTCFA Society of Washington, D.C. to hold a discussion
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07:45 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 5.6%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 5.6% in data released earlier, accompanied by a 0.7% drop in the purchase index and a 10.6% surge in the refinancing index for the week ended October 10. The overall market index gain was fueled mainly by the rekindling of refi activity after a 10 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to lows of 4.20%, as slowing of European growth to a crawl and finally a modest correction on stocks sent the bond market back into ascendance again. As the MBA itself noted: "Growing concerns about weak economic growth in Europe caused a flight to quality into U.S. assets last week, leading to sharp drops in interest rates." At least this has helped provide the Fed some cover for domestic growth as it brings QE3 to a close this month before mulling just when to embark on the tightening cycle.
07:43 EDTThe FDA and BARDA to hold a workshop
The FDA and Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) discusses U.S. Government medical countermeasure requirements in chemical, biological, radiological threats in a workshop being held in Washington, D.C. on October 15-17.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was fairly steady versus the euro overnight, despite the steady stream of weak EU data. The market remains net short of euros overall, and further consolidation may be in the cards before further downside EUR-USD potential can be seen. Elsewhere, USD-JPY struggles over 107.00, as the soft risk backdrop supports the yen. USD-CAD meanwhile, is on new trend highs over 1.1375, after blowing out the 2014 high of 1.1278. The move comes ass oil prices continue to tank, with NYMEX oil trading on the $81/bbl handle. The U.S. calendar reveals September retail sales, September PPI, and the October Empire State index, all at 8:30 EDT, followed by August business inventories at 10:00 EDT.
07:34 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to hold a conference
Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for 21st Century Conference is being held in New Brunswick, New Jersey on October 15-16.
07:28 EDTUBM Canon to hold a conference
Design & Manufacturing Midwest Conference is being held in Chicago on October 15-16.
07:26 EDTFutures lower in early trading
U.S. equity futures are trading lower as the market slide appears ready to continue. Several pieces of economic data due to be released today could influence investors. The data likely to be released today include reports on manufacturing, retail sales, producer prices, and business and energy inventories. Investors will also have to contend with the continuing downturn in oil prices, as crude prices are dropping again today.
07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher, in conjunction with gains in core sovereign bonds overseas, as stocks weaken amid a worrisome global outlook. Yields did edge higher in Asian trading as regional equities rallied, but losses in European bourses and U.S. equity futures have given Treasuries and European bonds a lift. German Bunds are leading the rally with the rate down to a new record low at 0.809%. The 10-yeaer Treasury yield has fallen to 2.18% from 2.22% in Tokyo action. Germany again sold its 2-year Schatz with a negative yield (-0.06%). There wasn't a lot of data overnight, but today's U.S. calendar is loaded and includes September retail sales, the October Empire State manufacturing index, and September PPI on tap, along with August business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications susrged 5.6% in the week ended October 10. The Fed's Beige Book for the October 28, 29 FOMC is also due today and should again say growth is moderate to modest. The NY Fed will buy $0.95 B to$1.15 B in notes dated from October 2018 through June 2019. Earnings announcements will be heard from Bank of America, American Express, BlackRock, eBay, Netflix, and Briggs & Stratton.
07:23 EDTOrthopedic Trauma Association to hold annual meeting
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:30 EDTU.K. unemployment rate hits six year low, AP says
The U.K.'s unemployment rate dropped to 6% between June and August, down from 6.4% during the prior three months, according to the Associated Press. The unemployment rate was the country's lowest since 2008, the news service stated. Reference Link
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 15
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.92%, DAX down 0.74%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $81.01, natural gas up 1%, gold at $1223 an ounce, and copper down 0.78%.
05:50 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has sank back to the low 107s
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended gains
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October 14, 2014
17:08 EDTWeek of 10/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55
17:08 EDT.
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17:08 EDTWeek of 10/25 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields malingered above 16-month lows as the stock market made a valiant attempt to claw back from recent market strains as volatility leapt from metals to FX to equities of late. Europe recovered from another bout of economic misses just in time for Wall Street to benefit from short-covering gains following recent turbulence. There were various speculative reports on the Fed's tightening path and "considerable time" reference from the WSJ and a NY think tank, along with remarks from dove Williams that in the unlikely event of a drop in inflation this could trigger more bond buys. But with economic downgrades spreading, a China rate cut and plunging oil, markets were mainly fixated on global growth.
15:25 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
U.S. PPI Preview: The September overall-PPI, due out tomorrow, is expected to remain flat (median 0.1%) with a 0.1% core index figure (median 0.1%). The flat U.S. August PPI figure with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. The September trade price report revealed the expected headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August
14:41 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund volatility low as corn rallies from 15-month low
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14:15 EDTRenewed requests to hike the Fed discount rate to 1%
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13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched the September 6 high
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13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish activity
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12:55 EDTSF Fed's dove Williams added his two cents to the "considerable time"
SF Fed's dove Williams added his two cents to the "considerable time" debate earlier, reportedly saying there was no change in his mind about the mid-2015 liftoff projection despite concerns about global growth. Cited in a Reuters interview, he found that "considerable time" remained an accurate description, and its removal risked market backlash. While he thought that Fed policy expectations were fundamentally accurate, he would consider further asset purchases if the inflation outlook started to fall, though not expected. He was also concerned that the ECB response to stagnation won't be fast or aggressive enough. Overall, status quo on the rate horizon and "considerable time" retention, similar to the NY think tank report cited earlier.
11:55 EDTTreasury's $5 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid on flight to quality
Treasury's $5 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid on flight to quality trades. The $24 B 3-month bill priced strong at 0.010%, through the 0.015% at the bid deadline, and last week's 0.015%. There were over $103.5 B bids for a 4.33 cover. However, that's down from last week's 5.05 and the 4.67 average. Indirect bidders took 19.5%, close to last week's 20.1% and the 22.7% average. The upsized $27 B 6-week bill stopped at 0.04%, also through the 0.045% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled over $115.9 B for a 4.32 cover, which was also below last week's 4.32 and the 4.77 average. Indiret bidders took a hefty 41.0%, well up on the 32.9% from last week as well as the 31.8% average. In fact it's the highest since mid August.
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish put selling
Treasury Option Action: bullish put selling included the sale of 14k in December 124 puts on 10-year futures, thought to be covered at 127-13 with a 6 delta, compared to 127-11 on the underlying December 10s, which have ranged from 127-235 to 127-00 so far.
11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1258
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $931 M in bonds
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11:15 EDTRumors of a NY think tank report on the Fed are circulating
Rumors of a NY think tank report on the Fed are circulating, reportedly offering some debate over the present situation and suggesting that the catch phrase "considerable time" will remain in the FOMC statement at the end of the month, though the Fed isn't as collectively concerned about recent dollar strength as some doves might have led us to believe. From the "for what it's worth file", since yields remain near lows and stocks are attempting to dig in their heels to avoid a deeper correction.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $33 B 4-week bill sale for Wednesday
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11:05 EDTThe VIX equity volatility index sank 4.5% to 23.50
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 107.17 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 107.17 highs, up from an earlier base of 106.67. As yields remain in the tank, and Wall Street comes off its best levels though, the pairing is back under 107.00. Dollar-yen has posted lower daily lows in five of the last six sessions, and a move under 106.60 is expected to result in a test of 106.00, levels last seen on September 9.
10:37 EDTWallachBeth Capital biotech analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analyst Bob Ai discusses investing in the future of treatment of hemophilia on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 17 at 1 pm.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.85 B to $1.05 B in bonds
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10:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 61 cents at $84.36
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields edged up from lows
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09:55 EDTDownside Risks Abound for September Retail Sales:
Downside Risks Abound for September Retail Sales: Analysts expect a weak round of September retail sales figures, with a flat headline and a 0.2% ex-auto drop. The release faces downside risk from declines in vehicle sales, construction hours-worked, gasoline prices, and stock prices, alongside a sideways trend in chain store sales on the month.
09:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish call selling
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09:40 EDTTreasury Action: yields are sharply lower amid global risk-off trades
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09:39 EDTMarket bounces at open, Nasdaq up 1% in early trade
Stock futures improved slightly during the pre-market trading session, thanks in part better than expected earnings from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Citigroup (C ), solid earnings from Wells Fargo (WFC) and a return to profitability by JP Morgan (JPM). The earnings results from several corporate bellwethers may have provided optimism over the upcoming earnings season. The futures action has led to a positive open but the question will be if the market can hold its gains, which it has been unable to do in recent sessions. In early trading, the Dow is up 108 points, the Nasdaq is up 45 points and the S&P is up 15 points.
09:38 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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09:29 EDTJefferies farm equipment analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:22 EDTUBS paper and forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a 3Q14 earnings and sector outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 14 at 10 am.
09:20 EDTDespite mixed risks, Fed rate timing hasn't shifted much
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09:17 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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08:57 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 10/11 Redbook Store Sales up 3.8% for the year
08:45 EDTU.S. equities are moderately firmer
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 0.7%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 0.7% in the week ended October 11 after edging up 0.1% in the prior week. Compared to last year, the index slowed to a 3.8% y/y clip from 3.9% y/y previously. October sales are projected at a 3.5% y/y to 4.0% y/y. Sales were good at apparel stores and wholesalers. Lower gas prices have been supportive.
07:48 EDTCBOE VIX futures October at 22.1, February at 19.85, VIX at 24.64
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07:47 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher on flight to quality
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher on flight to quality flows as the market reopens from yesterday's holiday where the Dow plunged another 223 points.. The 10-year yield is down almost 9 bps to 2.191%, a fresh year-to-day low (and the lowest since June 2013). Many global sovereigns have fallen to all-time lows with the German Bund at 0.84%. Adding to investor worries were weak data in Europe with a drop in the German ZEW confidence index, a fall in Eurozone industrial production fell 1.8%and weaker than expected U.K. inflation. Also, the PBoC cut its cash repo rate to 3.4% from 3.5%. There's not a lot on today's calendar, with just weekly chain store sales due, and possibly the Treasury budget for September.
07:36 EDTMarket damage will be hard to fix
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07:35 EDTWeek Ahead: The Never Ending Story?
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07:33 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level data reported
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07:26 EDTBrookings to host a forum
Brookings’s Initiative on Business and Public Policy holds a forum focusing on lessons about insurance from the financial crisis and how regulatory reforms are changing the industry and its supervision and will be held on October 14 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:14 EDTBarron's to hold a webinar
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06:25 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 14
Globex S&P futures are recently up 0.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 2.38%, DAX down 0.62%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $84.77, natural gas up 0.23%, gold at $1223 an ounce, and copper up 0.49%.
05:55 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar has recovered on weak European data
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar dropped quiet sharply in early Asia
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October 13, 2014
15:34 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures are recently up 2.58 to 38.14
14:22 EDT Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 08:30
14:22 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 08:35
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14:22 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 12:30
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11:26 EDTCitigroup homebuilding analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Homebuilding Analyst Research Team, along with Campbell Surveys' Research Director, Tom Popik, discuss quarterly existing home sales trends via Campbell Surveys' HousingPulse Tracking Survey on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 24 at 1 pm.
10:01 EDTBernstein U.S. utilities analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:45 EDTBernstein biotech analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:36 EDTMarket opens lower, averages reverse in early trading
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08:59 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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08:07 EDTJefferies industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:53 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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07:40 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Chicago speaks at conference
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07:29 EDTFutures show little bounce following last week’s decline
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07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing
FX Update: The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing, having given back most of its advance seen Friday against the euro and sterling while dropping to a four-week low against the outperforming yen. Trading conditions have and will remain thin today in the absence of Japan, the U.S. and Canada for respective public holidays. USD-JPY has been a catalyst for the softer dollar today, with the yen outperforming amid an air of risk aversion. The MSCI Asia Pacific continued lower today, and S&P 500 futures are also lower as market participants fret about global growth concerns and high valuations. The yen has an historical inverse correlation with risk appetite, as the a combination of Japanese repatriation of capital invested in overseas assets and squaring out of yen-funded carry positions tend to support the yen during the bad times, and the opposite forces tend to see the currency underperform during the good times. USD-JPY today dove to a low of 107.06, down just over 50 pips on Friday's closing level. EUR-USD recovered to the upper 1.26s.
06:31 EDTChinese trade data surpasses expectations, Reuters says
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 13
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.15%, DAX up 0.33%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $84.54, natural gas down 0.26%, gold at $1228 an ounce, and copper up 0.08%.
05:58 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY recovered the 107.50 level
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October 10, 2014
20:15 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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20:15 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
September Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.010M
20:15 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
September Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 79.0%
20:15 EDTBusiness Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
September Retail Sales less autos will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
20:15 EDTRetail Sales to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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20:14 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level to be reported at 07:30
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20:14 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
September PPI-FD will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Though volatility remained endemic to the stock markets, the dollar and bond markets steadied just below recent highs. Europe crumbled again led by a dazzling 2.4% plunge on the German DAX, which eventually came home to roost on Wall Street with the help of the semiconductor sector after a typical but brief "deceased feline" bounce after the European close. Trade prices came in quite weak thanks to the energy slump and dollar rally, while the VIX equity vol index cruised to a fresh cycle high over 22.0.
15:25 EDTRichmond Fed hawk Lacker discussed backruptcy law
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15:20 EDTS&P revises France outlook to Negative, affirms AA rating
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14:55 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher said the economy is on the mend
Dallas Fed's Fisher said the economy is on the mend and growth should accelerate over the next six months. Labor market dynamics have been improving. However, there still are not signs of significant inflationary pressures. There's nothing new or insightful in his comments. The long-standing hawk will only be participating as a voter in two more FOMC meetings this year, and will be retiring next year.
14:00 EDTKC Fed hawk George says next year is a good time to hike
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13:55 EDTJanus' Gross October Investment Outlook was a hair late
Janus' Gross October Investment Outlook was a hair late this time around, which was understandable considering his hasty retreat from PIMCO across the street to his new offices. But he's wasting little time in carrying on the tradition with a moral lesson called "You Only Dance Twice". The upshot is similar to his video pitch earlier in the week for the new "unconstrained bond fund" - i.e. in a low return environment look for a shorter-duration return revved up by currency overlay, along with a blend of higher emerging market returns.
13:25 EDTAction Economics Survey Results:
Action Economics Survey Results: TGIF! What a jumpy week it's been in the markets, with huge 200 to 300 point daily swings in the Dow and a double digit drop in the 10-year Treasury yield. Growth fears, geopolitical risks, monetary policy uncertainties, and ongoing positioning on the PIMCO surprise continue to reverberate. Holidays in the U.S., Canada, and Japan could further complicate trading near term. The abbreviated U.S. trading week will include a number of key data points, not to mention Fedspeakers, and a pick up in earnings announcements. The Survey medians point to some pretty lackluster results that might further weigh on investor sentiment and add to expectations the FOMC will be very patient with its policy course. Headline retail sales are forecast slipping 0.1%, with the ex-auto number rising 0.2%. Producer prices are expected to remain subdued. And the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes are expected to reflect some slowing in activity, though industrial production is expected to bounce back.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY held inside at 107.63 to 108.06
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12:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: some selling of 5-year volatility
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11:40 EDTThe U.S. VIX equity volatility index shot over 22.0
The U.S. VIX equity volatility index shot over 22.0 to fresh cycle highs with all the renewed selling pressure on stocks via Europe and semis, marking a high of 22.08 before pulling back to 19.50. That took the VIX through 21.91 prior-year highs and through a series of spike highs in the interim, with December 31, 2012, highs of 23.23 the next upside target and 27.73 from June 2012 if things get really ugly. European shares remain bearish into their close, though typically there has been a daily pop on Wall Street after that event. But perhaps its no coincidence that vol is making a comeback as the end of Fed QE approaches.
11:13 EDTDA Davidson advanced materials analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Advanced Materials Analyst Kant provides a weekly industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 13 at 11 am.
11:10 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with International Agribusiness Group Consultant Rob Fisher, discuss the Farm to Fork WASDE Report on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 10 at 2 pm.
11:05 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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11:02 EDTJefferies discusses commodities on an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Commodity Weather Group Founder & COO David Streit, discuss the weather impact for commodities on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 10 at 11 am.
11:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating above lows
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10:45 EDTJanus' Gross Tweeted: "The New Natural policy rate is 0%
Janus' Gross Tweeted: "The New Natural policy rate is 0% real and 2% nominal for the U.S. For EZ and Japan it is lower. Adjust valuations to this concept." Apparently he has no compunctions about borrowing themes incubated at his former employer PIMCO.
10:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large package
Euro$ interest rate options: a large package included the sale of 20k Short June 80/82 put spreads vs a purchase of 80k Jun 90/91 put spreads, paying 3 for the full package. Other deals came in the form of a sale of 10k in Long Red December 2015 87 puts in block trade, a purchase of 5k Short September broken put 80/77/76 butterflies (bought wings). There was also a purchase of 5k in Front December 93/96 put 1x2s (buying the 1st leg). December 2014s are flat at 99.77, but the deferreds are 0.5-2.0 ticks firmer out the curve as stocks gyrate.
09:55 EDTStocks bounced from lows reportedly on Ukraine news
Stocks bounced from lows reportedly on Ukraine news that Kiev agreed to withdraw from several cities in Eastern Ukraine. Donetsk rebels reportedly signed a demarkation line, but this could be overly optimistic in that it came from the Russian Information Agency (RIA). Indeed, while Wall Street cut much deeper overnight lossess into the open, somebody forgot to tell European equities which remain deeply underwater with the Euro Stoxx 50 -1% lower and the DAX -1.8%. Ukraine has not really been on equity radar screens of late anyway, more so the associated triple-dip recession risk in Europe and the spread of Ebola in Spain.
09:41 EDTAverages open lower, turn mixed in early trade
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09:15 EDTPhilly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser: policy should be data dependent
Philly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser: policy should be data dependent and not date-dependent. He's concerned that the Fed statements imply the Fed wants to hit the unemployment goal ASAP and he is worried that the Fed is shifting focus between the dual employment and inflation mandates. He also suggests the Fed prepare quarterly comprehensive policy reports for Congress, though that is likely to go over like a lead balloon with his peers in terms of Fed independence.
09:05 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are back in the dog house
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell from near session highs
FX Action: USD-CAD fell from near session highs of 1.1220 to 1.1160 lows in the aftermath of the much better Canadian employment report, where new full time jobs surged, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.8% from 7.0%. The weak commodity market backdrop, and risk-off conditions could well temper further downside, though the jobs report was certainly enough to prompt a quick round of selling.
08:30 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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08:10 EDTCanada Employment Preview
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07:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to four-session highs
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher as another bout of risk aversion
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07:45 EDTFour hawkish Fedspeakers of the Apocolypse due Friday:
Four hawkish Fedspeakers of the Apocolypse due Friday: Philly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser will consider "Monetary Policy and Communications" from 9 ET. Kansas City hawk George will discuss the economy at a KC Fed economic forum from 13 ET. Dallas Fed hawkish dissenter Fisher will mull "Texas: The Jagannatha of the American Economy," (Hindu: Lord of the World) showing off his education at an education conference from 13:30 ET. Richmond Fed hawk Lacker will take a sober look at "Rethinking the Unthinkable: Bankruptcy for Large Finanacial Institutions" from 15 ET, but then the bond market will have one foot out the door for the long Columbus Day weekend. Note, this weekend the Chicago Fed will host a 2-day conference at which Tarullo, Williams, Evans and Fischer will be speaking.
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTCorrection talk back in vogue as futures point to lower open
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07:24 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Richmond speaks on bankruptcy
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Lacker provides a speech "Rethinking the Unthinkable: Bankruptcy for Large Financial Institutions" at the Annual Meeting of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges being held in Chicago on October 10 at 1 pm.
07:22 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on monetary policy
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07:18 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago to hold a conference
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06:54 EDTIMF head economist says China growth could fall to 6%, Xinhua says
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 10
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05:51 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar capped out after a wave of buying
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03:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has consolidated Thursday's rebound
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02:48 EDTWeek of 10/22 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:48 EDTWeek of 10/13 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
October 9, 2014
16:44 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
Week of 10/8 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $5.1B
16:44 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:44 EDTWeek of 10/17 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:20 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures are recently up 2.41 to 31.95
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14:05 EDTFed VC Fischer suggested "considerable time" means 2-months to a year
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13:40 EDTFed Governor Tarullo confined his comments to bank regulation
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13:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY struggled its way up
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13:25 EDTFed hawk Lacker: inflation should converge on 2%
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: long yields reversed lower
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10:27 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 10/18 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 285K
13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B bond reopening saw mixed results
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12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1172
FX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1172, up from session lows of 1.1090, as equities melt down, and as oil prices look to have no bottom in sight. Wednesday's post FOM minutes stock rally has been more then unwound, while NYMEX crude is down another $1.60 at $85.71/bbl after touching trend lows of $85.60. These factors continue to weigh on the CAD, with the next risk event coming Friday in the form of the September Canadian employment report.
12:50 EDTU.S. equities are skidding to lows again
U.S. equities are skidding to lows again as the post-FOMC minutes rally gets fully eradicated after Europe reversed into the red into their close earlier and Wall Street ran with that bearish baton again. Though crude oil is extending its growth-related slide below $86 bbl now, safe haven gold has been bid back up over $1,224, though below $1,233 earlier highs. NASDAQ is leading the charge at -1.7%, followed by the blue chips at a slight lag. Comments from ECB's Draghi about weak growth in Europe reportedly added to investor unease, while IMF's Lagard was pretty bleak as well. Energy and industrial stocks remain at the vortex of selling pressure, with the deepest losses on Dow components Exxon -2.8%, Caterpillar -1.7% and Chevron -2.6%. The VIX equity volatility index shot 15% higher back to a high of 17.44, just below 18.03 from yesterday prior to the FOMC minutes.
12:45 EDTTreasury's 30-year auction preview:
Treasury's 30-year auction preview: the reopening should benefit from another 200+ point drop in the Dow as growth concerns mount. Additionally, some concession building through the morning has boosted the wi to 3.07% after having tested 3.03% early on. However, these are still some of the richest levels since May 2013 and that could prove troubling. Many are also worried that gains since the FOMC Minutes have put the market in over-bought territory. Shorts may have also covered to leave less of a short base. On the plus side the dovish tone from the FOMC Minutes and the soft inflation outlook should underpin, as should today's tilt toward a curve steepener which has cheapened the bond. The 3% coupon should bring in real money buyers and should be attractive to other accounts too, including investment funds, not to mention foreign accounts. Yesterday's indirect bid was below average however and that could be problematic if that's the case again today. September's bond auction priced strong at 3.24% and saw a 2.67 cover (2.44 average) and a 45.5% indirect bid (44.3% average), while direct bidders accepted a hefty 21.8%.
12:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: decent early flows on bonds
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12:10 EDTFed dove Bullard is concerned about the disconnect
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11:40 EDTMore from dethroned Bond King Bill: while he doesn't envisage a crash
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11:25 EDTBill Gross of Janus Capital Group released a new investment outlook
Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group released a new investment outlook in video form as part of his transition from his home port of PIMCO. Riffing on a nautical theme, he quotes "red skies at night, sailers delight," which for him means calmer waters at Janus. However, with a bandage under his right eye, it does look like the door hit him on the way out. Without the clout of a $2 tln portfolio behind him, it's not clear yet that his words will carry the same weight as before, with many withdrawals from PIMCO funds in wake of his departure still on the sidelines as investment boards consider their options. After a "rough few weeks" he believes its going to be a better few months and years. Here's a video link.
11:20 EDTTreasury announced a $51 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $51 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday (Treasuries closed Monday for Columbus Day), bumping up the volume by $3 B, with all of the increase in the longer tranche. That brings the 6-month size to $27 B, while the 3-month remains at $24 B. The debt managers also outlined an unchanged $25 B 52-week bill sale (Wednesday). Supply lightens next week with just bills on the schedule.
11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $25.0 B
11:09 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:09 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:50 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a $5.1 B Dynegy Financial multi-trancher
U.S. corporate debt: a $5.1 B Dynegy Financial multi-trancher creeps on to the books on Friday, a high yield offering comprised of 6-,8- and 10-year tranches. A few other high yield deals crop up then as well, including a $1 B 2-trancher form Lunding Mining, MPG, Natural Resources and Providence among them. Otherwise, there's really not much on the corporate docket today to remotely crowd the Treasury's $13 B reopening later.
10:35 EDTSt Louis Fed's Bullard didn't speak on policy or the economy
St Louis Fed's Bullard didn't speak on policy or the economy in his introductory remarks as the Community Banking Research and Policy Conference. He will be speaking with reporters later today. A number of other Fedspeakers are on the docket today, including VC Fischer, governor Tarullo, and presidents Lacker and Williams. Note too that ECB's Draghi will be speaking along with Stan Fischer on monetary policy and global central banking at the Brookings Institute.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 3
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report
The U.S. wholesale trade report revealed diverging sales and inventory paths that were modestly discouraging on net. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in August given a 0.7% sales rise but 0.7% inventory, after a five-month stretch of stronger sales than inventory figures. Thanks to disappointing sales, the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio bounced to 1.19 from 1.17 over the prior three months (was 1.16 in July) to bring the ratio back to the high-end of the 1.16-1.19 range evident since April of 2013. Analysts saw a much lower 1.13 cycle-low in January of 2011 that matched the all-time low in June of 2008. Our 2.8% Q3 GDP growth estimate incorporates a $12 B inventory subtraction, following a $49.6 B inventory boost to Q2 GDP growth that translated to a relatively lofty $84.8 B accumulation rate. For monthly forecasts, analysts expect a 0.4% (was 0.3%) August business inventory rise, given today's 0.7% wholesale increase, the 0.1% factory inventory rise, and an assumed 0.6% retail inventory gain. The overall business I/S ratio should rise to 1.30 in August from 1.29 over the prior five months.
10:25 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B bond reopening completes this week's auctions. Yesterday's 10-year sale was very poorly subscribed, after a strong 3-year sale Tuesday, and today's is likely to fall somewhere in between. The wi richened to 3.03% in early trading, the lowest since May 2013, but has risen to 3.06% after the improved claims data and as the market sets up for the sale. The bond traded as cheap as 3.135% on Monday as the jobs report continued to reverberate. Like the 10-year auction yesterday, the outright richness may temper demand. Meanwhile, the 10s-30s spread has widened out to 73 bps, the widest since mid-September, which could be attractive at the margin. A tame inflation outlook is also supportive. There will be a natural bid for duration, and the likely 3% coupon should bring in real money buyers too, while the wide spreads to European and Asian sovereigns should underpin. However, the indirect bid on yesterday's 10-year came in a little below average. September's bond auction priced strong at 3.24% and saw a 2.67 cover (2.44 average) and a 45.5% indirect bid (44.3% average), while direct bidders accepted a hefty 21.8%.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held above lows
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1126
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10:10 EDTU.S. August wholesale inventories surged 0.7%, while sales dropped 0.7%
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10:03 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
August Wholesale Trade Inventories up 0.7% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
10:00 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
U.S. wholesale trade preview: Wholesale sales are expected to grow 0.2% in August (median 0.4%) vs 0.7% in July, while inventories should grow 0.3% vs 0.1% in July. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio up to 1.17 from 1.16 in July. report for more detail.
09:54 EDTBofA/Merrill REITs-Apartments hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 10/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 36.8
09:39 EDTMarket opens in negative ground despite lower weekly jobless claims
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a variety of flows
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are underwater again
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08:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 40 cents
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to 287k
The 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to 287k in the first week of October extended last week's 8k drop to 288k (was 287k) to leave a sustained lean trajectory for claims since the 279k cycle-low in mid-July. Claims continue to oscillate closer to the tight 281k September BLS survey week figure than the elevated 316k Labor Day reading. Claims are entering October below the 294k September average, following higher prior averages of 303k in August, 296k in July, and 315k in June. The 281k September BLS survey week reading sat well below prior BLS readings of 299k in August, 303k in July, and 314k in June. Analysts assume a 210k October payroll rise that undershoots the 248k September gain, versus average monthly increases of 224k in Q3, 220k over the past year, and 209k over the past two years. Analysts assume 210k monthly gains through Q4. Payrolls face upside risk from a firm trend for initial claims, producer sentiment, and ADP, and an ongoing consumer confidence climb back above mid-2013 levels.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up slightly
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields retreated from lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims slipped 1k to 287k in the week ended October 4
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08:36 EDTFutures little changed after claims data
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08:20 EDTWorld Bank Group to hold a press briefing
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds have extended gains
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds have extended gains after the FOMC Minutes surprised on the more dovish side yesterday. The 10-year note yield dropped to 2.278% in overnight trading, while the 2-year yield has slid to 0.42% after testing 0.59% a couple of weeks ago. The German Bund made a new intraday low at 0.85%. Equities are little changed, unable to feed off of the rebound on Wall Street yesterday, and good news from Alcoa which kicked off earnings season last night. The BoE left policy unchanged, as expected. Japanese core machine tool orders rose 4.7%, while German exports plunged 5.8% in August. There's not much on today's calendar to inspire trading. The Treasury completes its $61 B in coupon auctions with the reopening of the 30-year bond. Data includes weekly initial jobless claims, August wholesale trade, and chain store sales for September. There's a lot of Fedspeak, however, but policymakers' views remain mixed, as reflected in the FOMC Minutes yesterday and hence shouldn't provide any clarity. Speaking are Fed VC Fischer, Bullard, Tarullo, Lacker, and Williams.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:46 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President speaks on economic outlook
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07:45 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold an open meeting
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07:43 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond President to speaks on the labor market
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07:40 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:39 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President to speak at conference
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07:38 EDTThe SEC to hold a meeting
Dodd-Frank Investor Advisory Committee holds a meeting at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on October 9 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:33 EDTFDA Circulatory Systems Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Panel discusses and makes recommendations regarding the classification of more-than-minimally manipulated allograft heart valves (MMM Allograft HVs) in a meeting being held in Gaithersburg, Maryland on October 9 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFBR Capital to hold a conference
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07:24 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to hold a conference
39th Annual Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fall Conference is being held in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9-10.
07:20 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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07:02 EDTBank of England maintains bank rate and size of asset purchase program
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended losses
FX Update: The dollar extended losses in Asia and Europe as markets continued to adjust to the dovish-leaning FOMC minutes, which also earmarked dollar strength as a specific concern for some Fed policymakers. EUR-USD lifted to 1.2791, taking out the 20-day moving average on route, marking this as the first day the euro has traded north of this average since Jul-15. The up-move in EUR-USD has been concomitant with a decline in the Bund versus U.S. T-note yield differential, which has risen to -141.9 bp, down from levels below -150bp. In the bigger picture the growth divergence between the Eurozone and U.S. should curtail EUR-USD's upside. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has drifted to new three-week lows under 107.65. Mid-September lows at 106.82-107.09 look likely to be revisited
06:59 EDTGerman exports sank 5.8% in August, Reuters says
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05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 9
Globex S&P futures are recently up 5.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.75%, DAX up 1.11%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $87.68, natural gas up 0.16%, gold at $1226 an ounce, and copper up 1.135%.
05:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY rebound stalled shy of 108.00
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04:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar has extended losses
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended loss seen on the dovish FOMC minutes
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October 8, 2014
23:05 EDTJapan core machinery orders rose 4.7% m/m in August
Japan core machinery orders rose 4.7% m/m in August after the 3.5% gain in July, outpacing expectations for a more modest improvement. Core machinery orders (excludes electricity and shipbuilding) fell 3.3% on a annual comparable basis in August after the 1.1% y/y gain in July. USD-JPY is little changed from its post FOMC level of 108.15. The Fed voiced of concern over the stronger dollar in the FOMC minutes, causing the dollar to be knocked broadly lower.
16:43 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 17:00
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16:43 EDTWeek of 10/17 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:15 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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14:32 EDTMinutes show FOMC members disagreed on interest rate guidance
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14:20 EDTWeek of 10/17 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC Minutes showed a number of worries among policymakers
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14:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar was smacked broadly lower
FX Action: The dollar was smacked broadly lower after the release of the FOMC minutes, where the Fed voiced concerns over the strength of the dollar, and its impact on the U.S. economy. The FOMC is concerned that a stronger dollar will bring down import prices, and keep inflation lower for a longer period. EUR-USD spiked up to 1.2727 highs from 1.2655, as USD-JPY dove to near 108.15 from 108.75.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields dropped on the FOMC minutes
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14:09 EDTFed members agreed rate increase dependent on economic data
Minutes from the last Fed meeting read, "Participants agreed that the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming economic data and their implications for the outlook. That said, several participants thought that the current forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate suggested a longer period before liftoff, and perhaps also a more gradual increase in the federal funds rate thereafter, than they believed was likely to be appropriate given economic and financial conditions...In addition, some participants saw the current forward guidance as appropriate in light of risk-management considerations, which suggested that it would be prudent to err on the side of patience while awaiting further evidence of sustained progress toward the Committee's goals."
14:04 EDTFed members noted potential for slower than expected growth
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13:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has perked up fairly broadly
FX Action: The dollar has perked up fairly broadly, now that Wall Street has apparently stemmed the bleeding for now. EUR-USD is under 1.2660, down from highs over 1.2690, while USD-JPY has rallied nearly 90 points from its Asian low of 107.75. USD-CAD is back over 1.1200, while cable is under 1.6050.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to session highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury's 10-year auction was poorly subscribed
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12:40 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
Treasury 10-year auction preview: the wi has cheapened slightly to 2.365% in recent trading. Nevertheless, a stop there would still be one of the lowest rates since June 2013 and that may inhibit some buyers, especially as the Fed is ending QE this month, and is expected to start hiking rates around mid-2015, though that is up for debate. The advent of a potentially hawkish set of FOMC Minutes may also detract from demand. Additionally, the 5s-10s-30s butterfly is also at the rich end of the spectrum. And the recent track record of auctions has not been great. Nevertheless, the wide spread to Bunds and JGBs is expected to result in another solid indirect bid that should be overall supportive for the offering. The potential for curve flatteners is also a positive for the auction, as are tame inflation expectations and rising growth worries. The September auction stopped at 2.535% and garnered a 2.71 cover (2.70 average), a 53.0% indirect bid (45.4% average), with a 13.5% direct bid.
12:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy bullish demand
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12:05 EDTTreasury Action: the rally in the bond market has stalled for now
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11:55 EDTFX Action: Bottom fishing has supported USD-JPY
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities have resumed their slide
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1210 highs
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade at long-end
Treasury Option Action: mixed trade at long-end included the bullish purchases of 10k in December 127.5/129.5 call 1x2s and 4k in November 124.5/125.5 call spreads. Further out, there was a sale of 2k in December 146 calls on bond futures as well. December 10s are still 3.5-ticks firmer at 126-035, while December bonds are flat near 140-19.
10:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude fell to trend lows
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10:38 EDTBrookings Institute hosts Mario Draghi
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 3
Crude oil inventories 5.02M build vs. consensus of 2.0M build. Gasoline inventories 1.18M build vs. consensus of 500K draw. Distillates 439K build vs. consensus of 1.25M draw.
10:19 EDTJPMorgan life science tools analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:15 EDTThe Moderating U.S. Housing Sector Recovery:
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10:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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10:00 EDTTreasury 10-year auction outlook:
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09:29 EDTUBS healthcare services analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Services Analyst Rice, Leisure Analyst Farley and Airlines Analyst Genovesi assess the current situation with the Ebola outbreak and the readiness of the U.S. healthcare system to address the challenge on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 8 at 11 am.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was kept from 1.1200 overnight
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities have recouped some losses
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08:50 EDTChicago Fed's Evans said while there has been "significant improvement"
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08:25 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans will discuss the economy
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07:55 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude hit a new trend low
Oil Action: NYMEX crude hit a new trend low of $87.39 overnight, before recovering to current $88.10 levels. Global growth fears, which have been roiling the equity markets this week, have spilled over into the oil market, where the ongoing supply/demand equation remains out of balance. With recent lows now broken, traders see scope for a move toward $85/bbl in the coming sessions.
07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 3.8%
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar recovered from its worst overnight levels in London trade, though despite the concerns over EU growth, the euro remains near the top of its recent range. The market remains well short, and analysts suspect further EUR-USD advances will be needed to clear out what are becoming stale short positions. In the same light, USD-JPY may be getting close to have squeezed enough longs out to be able to attempt a move higher now, after it touched 107.76 lows, levels last seen on September 17. Yields and equity futures are marginally higher this morning, though there is no U.S. data on tap this morning. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 14:00 EDT will be of interest this afternoon.
07:34 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to host a luncheon meeting
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07:33 EDTEconomic Club of Washington, D.C. to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:21 EDTUBS to hold a conference
South Africa Tomorrow Investor Conference is being held in New York on October 8-9.
07:18 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:14 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:13 EDTSABR Capital Management / Schulte Roth & Zabel to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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05:51 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 8
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.19%, DAX down 0.75%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $87.78, natural gas down 1.24%, gold at $1219 an ounce, and copper down 0.15%.
05:47 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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02:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar is slightly firmer
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October 7, 2014
17:10 EDTWeek of 11/8 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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17:10 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:10 EDTWeek of 11/8 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A stampede of bulls back into the bond market resumed in earnest on Tuesday, following a series of unfortunate missteps in Europe that sent stocks there 1.8-2.0% lower. An Ebola outbreak in Spain featured, along with a 4.0% drop in German industrial production that sparked talk of a "triple-dip" recession in Europe as even the core slides back. The IMF slashed its global growth outlook for 2014-15 as well, though U.S. JOLTS data was reasonably firm. Fed dove Kocherlakota reaffirmed his belief that rates shouldn't rise in 2015, though Dudley thought they might. Consumer credit rose $13.5 B late in the session. The 3-year note auction attracted firm demand under the circumstances, despite its richness ahead of the sale.
15:15 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley sees a mid-2015 rate hike
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15:10 EDTU.S. consumer credit rose only $13.5 B in August
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14:50 EDTU.S. consumer credit preview:
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14:30 EDTTreasury Action: chipping away at fresh lows,
Treasury Action: chipping away at fresh lows, yields continued to slide following the solid 3-year auction results and a resumption of losses on Wall Street (-0.7% on NASDAQ and -1.8% on Euro Stoxx 50). A cocktail of Ebola in Spain (IBEX -2.02%), fading global growth hopes and triple-dips has set the tone and the T-note yield has hit a low of 2.35% from 2.43% highs in Asia. That still puts the onus on a retracement back down to late August lows of 2.32% or deeper to 2.30% set at the height of Ukraine war fears. Below there puts a full retracement of the "taper tantrum" gap lows of 2.11% from 21-June-2013 back in sight, which has somewhat of an circular esthetic appeal with the end of QE approaching at the end of the month. Below 2.11% lies 1.99%, while 2.40-2.44% reverts to yield resistence. Earlier reports of some selling interest at 3.10% on the cash bond proved fleeting, with the bond yield now down at 3.07%. The 2s-10s spread narrowed further to +185 bp, while 5s-30s hit +143 bp.
13:35 EDTTreasury Action: the short-end caught a fresh updraft
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13:18 EDTWeek of 10/18 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:18 EDTWeek of 10/18 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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13:15 EDTTreasury's 3-year sale was very well sponsored
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13:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 76 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 76 cents at $89.58, after touching session lows of $89.21 earlier. Weak German production data, and the IMF's downgrading of the EU's growth outlook have been the main drivers. A broad $88-$92 trading range is expected to hold for the time being, though further shocks to the demand picture could see that broken in the not too distant future.
12:50 EDTU.S. equities have bounced back from lows
U.S. equities have bounced back from lows after being sucked into the European selling vortex into their close, as the spontaneous Ebola outbreak in Spain knocked the IBEX 35 over 2% lower and dragged down the Euro Stoxx 50 1.8% following the German IP drop. IMF growth downgrades also impacted, though that's kind of like the warning "objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear." Likewise, USD-JPY has been basing somewhat over 108.09 lows, though Treasury yields remain non-believers in the shallow technical rebound and continue to mark lows. The major U.S. indices pared losses to the -0.5% area and the VIX equity volatility index is still up 4.5% near 16.15, but down from highs of 16.78.
12:35 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview:
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12:10 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: there are a few deals on the calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: there are a few deals on the calendar to compete with the Treasury's $27 B 3-year offering. Leading the list is sa $1.5 B 5-year deal from KFW, just boosted from $1 B previously. And, HCA Holdings has a $1.5 B 2-part senior note deal including 5s and 10s. EIB is selling $1 B in global bonds. Quebec announced it will sell at least $1 B in 10-year notes. Wal-Mart has a $500 M in a 10-year TAP. American Honda Finance has a benchmark 1-year deal in the works. The bearish impact of supply is being overwhelmed by growth and inflation fears, which should help underpin today's auctions.
11:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a ratio iron fly
Euro$ interest rate options: a ratio iron fly was reported with a sale of 10k in Blue March 72 straddles against a purchase of 14k in Blue March 67/77 strangles. Deferreds have still held their opening gains as stock roll over, some 1-7 ticks higher.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $32 B 4-week bill sale was strong
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD stopped short of the 1.1200
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11:30 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook:
Treasury 3-year auction outlook: today's $27 B 3-year auction kicks off $61 B in coupon sales. Today's offering is likely to see rather lukewarm results overall, akin to the prior two auctions. The wi has continued to richen slightly, and the lack of concession could be detrimental at the margin today. The yield has fallen to 1.010%, and is down from 1.095% following Friday's jobs report. However, assuming the note prices here, this would only be the second 1% coupon in over 3 years, and that may be somewhat positive. Some profit taking on the flat 3s-10s spread may help underpin. It's trading at 141 bps versus 150 bps a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, worries over Fed rate hikes could leave some potential buyers sidelined. However, renewed beliefs the FOMC will be patient due to growth concerns may offset. Also, negative short-term rates in Europe and Japan could attract some demand. The September offering was awarded at 1.066% and garnered a 3.13 cover (3.31 average) and a 33.1% indirect bid (33.0% average). Direct bidders took 20.3% while primary dealers took 46.6%.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.281 B in TIPS
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10:57 EDTBarclays financial services analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss the 3Q14 outlook for eBrokers and Exchanges on an earnings preview Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 8 at 10 am.
10:55 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings surged 230k to 4,835k in August
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10:55 EDTTreasury Action: some "end users" reported to be selling into 3.10%
Treasury Action: some "end users" reported to be selling into 3.10% on the cash bond, according to sources, while a mix of others have shown interest in 5s and 10s in contrast. The cash bond yield nosed as low as 3.09% before backing up over 3.10% again, having fallen from session highs of 3.135%. The 3-year note auction later could keep the short-end defensive for now and curve flattening intact, as the 2s-10s probes +187 bp and the 5s-30s +143 bp.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B in TIPS
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B in TIPS. The small buyback won't have much of an impact, and isn't likely to provide much support to the beleaguered TIPS market, which has been hammered lower by softening economic growth and declining commodity prices.
10:20 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings surged 230k to 4,835k in August
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields paused at lows
Treasury Action: yields paused at lows following the solid JOLTS reading, which Janet favors, after declining with Bunds to lows of 2.38% on the T-note that essentially matched October lows. Barring a bounce back into the 2.44-2.47% range, that puts the onus on a retracement to late August lows of 2.32% or deeper to 2.3030% set at the height of Ukraine war fears.
10:10 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: heavy block trade
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10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar remains under broad pressure
FX Action: The dollar remains under broad pressure, as Wall Street goes into the tank, and Treasury yields soften. EUR-USD has pulled up to 1.2655, from 1.2585 lows into the N.Y. open, with resistance at 1.2675, which represents the high for Monday and last Friday. USD-JPY posted a three-day low of 108.11. A test of last Thursday's 108.01 low could be in the cards, and stops under the figure may be in the crosshairs.
09:44 EDTGerman data weighs on Europe, leads to lower open in U.S.
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09:30 EDTNational Retail Federation to hold a media briefing
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09:30 EDTU.S. Treasury Secretary Lew: a strong dollar is good
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09:20 EDTIMF cut its global growth outlook for 2014 and 2015 on rising geopolitical risks
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09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded up to 1.1174
FX Action: USD-CAD has traded up to 1.1174 highs after putting in a floor near 1.1130 in London. Weak Canadian building permits, along with soggy oil prices and soft equities have all conspired against the CAD this morning, though good resistance is seen into 1.1180-90, with more offers seen from 1.1200. As a result, unless the risk backdrop deteriorates further, USD-CAD gains appear to be limited for now.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed trade so far
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09:03 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a press briefing
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09:00 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
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08:58 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 10/4 Redbook Store Sales up 5.4% for the year
08:50 EDTU.S. equities rolled over again
U.S. equities rolled over again following European bourses lower after fresh jitters there following a large 4% drop in German industrial production. The Euro Stoxx 50 is over 1% lower, while the Spain IBEX 35 sank 1.4% as peripheral spreads begin to widen back out again. The Dow is 43-points lower, S&P sank 4-points and NASDAQ is off 8-points in pre-open action. With earnings season on the doorstep and lingering concerns about dollar strength and European weakness, the stock market is pausing to assess any damage to corporate balance sheets. Amazon shed 1% after an EU probe of the company using Luxembourg as its profit center for tax purposes. A big drop in AGCO earnings came after a sales slump, knocking its shares 19% lower. Zillow sank nearly 2% after a drop in unique users to its online real estate site. GT Advanced Technologies rallied 19% after diving 93% yesterday with its bankruptcy filing. JOLTS, consumer credit and Fedspeak are all on tap later.
08:25 EDTFedspeak resumes with Minneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 11 cents
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded 0.1%
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:41 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York President speaks on local economy
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07:40 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks on monetary policy
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy objectives in Rapid City, North Dakota on October 7 at 2:30 pm.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are holding modest gains
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07:35 EDTGerman economic data sinks futures
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07:33 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:29 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
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07:28 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:27 EDTCoinAgenda / BitAngels to hold a conference
Bitcoin Investor Conference is being held in Las Vegas on October 7-9.
07:21 EDTWorld Muscle Society to hold a confernce
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07:19 EDTCowen to hold a conference
17th Annual Therapeutics Conference to be held in New York on October 7-8.
06:17 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 7
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06:12 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has re-established a footing
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02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar retained a generally soft tone
FX Update: The dollar retained a generally soft tone as the correction from Friday's post-payrolls surge continued. A lot of equity research have been warning of the impact of the strong dollar on multinational corporate earnings, and this seems to be playing a role in the greenback's correction. USD-JPY ebbed to a new low for the week at 108.51, which almost exactly matches the present position of the 20-day moving average. Last Friday's low at 108.35 and last Thursday's low at 108.00 are near-to support levels. The BoJ left policy unchanged by a vote of 8:1, as was widely anticipated, while the statement said that the economy is recovering moderately. Cable popped to a new high for the week, as did AUD-USD following an as-expected RBA decision to leave policy unchanged and despite the statement saying that the recent sharp drop in the AUD is still on sufficient to a stimulate the domestic economy. EUR-USD remained subdued, despite the losses in the dollar elsewhere, with the pair holding around 1.2620-40, comfortably below its Monday high at 1.2675.
October 6, 2014
17:24 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:24 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:24 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: wi 3-year note continues to richen ahead of Tuesday's sale
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14:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted 1.1154 lows
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13:55 EDTAnother flurry of euro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish now
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13:30 EDTCanada Building Permits Preview
Canada Building Permits Preview: Analysts expect permits, due Tuesday, to rise 5.0% in August after the 11.8% gain in July. While the realization of our projection for August permit values would leave a more modest gain relative to May, June and July, it would still represent the fifth consecutive month that permit values have expanded. Recall that the BoC had maintained that the pick-up in housing sales, starts prices and construction this summer was due to pent-up activity following a harsher than usual winter. Yet the Bank changed its tune a bit in the September announcement, saying that the housing market has been strong. They dropped any mention of a soft landing.
13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning against the grain
Treasury Option Action: bearish positioning against the grain of the rally on underlying Treasury futures included the purchase 2.5k in November 124.5/125 put spreads, with a resting bid below. December 10s have extended gains as stocks got squirrelly again, rising some 12-ticks to highs near 125-17 compared to earlier lows of 125-035.
13:00 EDTFOMC Minutes preview:
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12:38 EDTPresident George of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City speaks
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12:33 EDTTD Ameritrade IMX Level data reported
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12:20 EDTU.S. Treasury Dept's Financial Stability Oversight Council to hold a meeting
Treasury Secretary Lew presides over an open meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council with Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellen in attendance will be held in Washington, D.C. on October 6 at 3 pm. Webcast Link
12:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are sliding again
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was strong
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was strong, particularly the shorter tranche. The $24 B 3-month bill was awarded at 0.015%, just through the 0.020% at the bid deadline (it's the same as last week's 0.015%, which was one of the richest stop since September 30, 2013). There were $120.8 B in bids for a big 5.05 cover, well above the prior 4.17 and the 4.65 average. Indirect bidders took 20.1%, almost double last week's 11.6%, but a little below the 23.3% average. The $24 B 6-month bill was awarded at 0.04%, also through the 0.045% at the bid deadline (and it's unchanged from last week's stop, which equals the lowest award rate since September 16, 2013). Bids totaled almost $110.1 B for a 4.62 cover, better than the prior 4.30, but a little below the 4.79 average. Indirect bidders took 32.9% versus last week's 25.2%, though it's in line with the 32.2% average.
11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY opened near 109.15
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $32 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.536 B in notes
NY Fed bought $1.536 B in notes dated from November 15, 2021 through May 15, 2024. The Street offered $4.43 B. The front end is leading the way on today's small rally with the 2-year at 0.54% and the benchmark 3-year at 1.003%, despite the advent of the 3-year auction tomorrow.
11:10 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility opened lower at 14.46
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11:09 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $35.0 B2
10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
Treasury Option Action: bearish put positioning included a purchase of 5k in December 123/124.5 put 1x2s on 10-year futures. December 10s are 4-ticks firmer near 124-085 compared to a range of 125-115 to 125-035.
10:40 EDTNY Fed outright purchase:
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10:35 EDTFed's LMCI rose 0.50 points to 2.50 in September
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10:30 EDTU.S. Treasury Receipt Growth Rebounds:
U.S. Treasury Receipt Growth Rebounds: Daily Treasury data imply a solid 12% September y/y receipt rise that offset weakness in July and August to leave a respectable 8% y/y rise for receipts in Q3 overall, following an anemic 5% y/y climb in Q2. Individual withheld receipts rose by the same 12% y/y in September, and analysts now expect a lean 5% y/y Q3 rise. An assumed 13% y/y September outlay gain translates to a $82.0 B September deficit, and a $508.3 B FY14 gap that just barely exceeds the $506 B official CBO estimate from August 27.
10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to intra day lows of 1.1187
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10:12 EDTJPMorgan life science tools analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:00 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x1 call structure
More euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x1 call structure consisted of a purchase of 50k in Short March 88/90 call spreads vs a 25k sale of March 2015 96 calls. There was also a sizeable 40k purchase of Green December 80/82 call spreads reported. The December 2014 contract is now a half-tick firmer near 99.77, while the deferreds are still. 1-2.5 ticks firmer out the curve.
09:58 EDTMarket begins week in positive territory
Stock futures held steady during the pre-market trading session, with the optimism from last Friday's jobs report continuing into the new week. The futures action has led to a higher open. There is little on the economic calendar, which is very quiet until Wednesday when the Fed releases its minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. In focus instead are the several M&A deals that were announced as well as HP's (HPQ) plan to split into two companies. In early trading, the Dow is up 70 points, the Nasdaq is up 13 points and the S&P is up 8 points.
09:55 EDTFed's LMCI preview
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09:20 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
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09:15 EDTFed Chair Yellen will attend an open meeting of the FSOC
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09:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 19 cents
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08:51 EDTBofA/Merrill retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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08:47 EDTCitigroup retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:45 EDTJanney Capital consumer analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a monthly consumer update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 6 at 10 am.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are set to extend gains
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08:33 EDTGallup US Consumer Spending Measure level data reported
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08:25 EDTTreasury Action: supply is on the horizon with $61 B in coupon auctions
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08:05 EDTBofA/Merrill European banks analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:01 EDTBofA/Merrill small-cap analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar pulled back from Friday's best levels, as the strong USD rally takes a breather. After touching a better than four-year high on Friday, the USD index has eased back toward 86.35, down from Friday's 86,70 close. EUR-USD has peaked at 1.2562, up from Friday's flirtation with the 1.2500 mark USD-JPY meanwhile, has eased back into 109.30. Consolidation, and profit taking nay keep the dollar under modest pressure through the N.Y. session. The U.S. calendar is empty on Monday, though prospects for another Wall Street advance may keep risk taking alive.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields are slightly lower,
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07:25 EDTFutures higher as jobs report optimism continues
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07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar corrected
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07:14 EDTAvondale to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTWolfe Research to hold a forum
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07:12 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTCancer Research Institute to hold a symposium
22nd Annual International Cancer Immunotherapy Symposium is being held in New York on October 6-8.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 6
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05:45 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted fractional losses
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