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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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December 19, 2014
10:19 EDTPeterson Institute for International Economics to hold a discussion
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10:15 EDTFed dove Kocherlakota: failure to respond to weak inflation
Fed dove Kocherlakota: failure to respond to weak inflation risks credibility of the inflation target and the Fed is creating unacceptable downside inflation risks, said the soon to retire uber-dove. He said it would be hard to reverse harmful slide in inflation and the Fed should have vowed to keep rates at zero so long as the inflation outlook is below 2%. Moreover, the Fed should have signaled willingness to buy more bonds if inflation stays low. The dovish tenor of his argument is clear, it has all been said before in his recent dissents.
10:03 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
December Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr up 1.9% for the year
10:00 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold a meeting
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: curve steepening retraced
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09:37 EDTQuadruple witching could lead to market volatility
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09:13 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update from Washington, D.C. on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 19 at 11 am.
09:05 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analysts provide an update on industry trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 19 at 10:30 am.
09:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed start
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD initially rallied to 1.1634
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities: Santa Claus rally will do battle Quadruple Witch
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude held above Thursday's $54.28 low
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08:00 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI to expand 2.3% y/y in November (median 2.2%) following the 2.4% clip in October. CPI is seen falling 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.1% rise in October. A sharp pull-back in gasoline prices should drive month comparable CPI lower. The BoC's core CPI index is seen rising 0.1% m/m in November. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.5% y/y rate (median same at 2.5%), up from the 2.4% clip in October. Our core CPI projection would put the measure even further above the BoC's 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed
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07:30 EDTAllilance for Regional Development to hold a summit
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07:30 EDTA fresh round of bipolar Fedspeak
A fresh round of bipolar Fedspeak to wind down the week will start with Chicago Fed dove Evans, who will open the Second Annual summit on Regional Competitiveness at 10 ET. There will be no text or Q&A, which suggests little new information from the non-voter. Richmond Fed hawk Lacker could provide some counter-weight during a panel discussion in Charlotte on the economic outlook from 12:30 ET. Lacker is also a non-voter and both are at opposite ends of the dove-hawk spectrum.
07:11 EDTFutures higher ahead of quadruple witching
Stock futures are higher once again as world markets rallied for the second straight day following the Fed’s pledge to take a patient approach to raising interest rates. Today is a quadruple witching today for the markets. Quadruple witching, which happens once per quarter, occurs when market index futures, market index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire on the same day. There will be little else for investors to key in on, as little domestic economic data is slated to be released.
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 19
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.40 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 2.39%, DAX up 0.17%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $54.89, natural gas down 0.71%, gold at $1198 an ounce, copper up 1.19%.
05:50 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is today December 19, 2014
05:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains well bid
FX Action: USD-JPY remains well bid, edging out a fresh nine-day high at 119.50 earlier, with subsequent dips having remained shallow. The Dec-11 peak at 119.55 provides the immediate focal point. The ongoing risk-on sentiment is weighing on the yen, and Nikkei closed with a solid 2.4% gain. The BoJ kept monetary policy steady today while maintaining the increase in the monetary base at 80 tln yen, as expected. The central bank also raised its assessment on the economy, exports and output, anticipating a moderate recovery as the after effects of the sales tax hike wears off. USD-JPY resistance is marked at 119.55 (Dec-10 high) and 119.91-120.00, support at 119.00-09.
01:15 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY extended gains as stocks continued to rally
FX Update: USD-JPY extended gains as stocks continued to rally in Asia, which also benefited the AUD and NZD. USD-JPY climbed to an eight-day peak of 119.39, breaching above the 20-moving average at 118.79 and bringing the Dec-11 peak at 119.55 into scope. The Nikkei liked the yen's weakness, and posted a solid 2%-plus rally. The BoJ kept monetary policy steady and maintained the increase in the monetary base at 80 tln yen, as expected. The central bank also raised its assessment on the economy, exports and output, anticipating a moderate recovery as the after effects of the sales tax hike wears off. AUD-USD lifted to the 0.8190 area, about a 40 pip gain on yesterday's New York closing level, but remained shy of the Thursday peak at 0.8203. EUR-USD pretty much flat-lined around the 1.2280 level, consolidating the sharp losses from levels above 1.2500 seen since mid-week.
December 18, 2014
23:45 EDTBoJ kept monetary policy steady
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:30 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury yields are holding at or near the highs of the day
Treasury Action: Treasury yields are holding at or near the highs of the day as stocks continue to roar higher. The bearish close in core European sovereign markets is also weighing. However, the updraft in the 10-year is meeting some resistance at 2.20%, with the bond being stymied by the 2.82% area. There wasn't much reaction to the TIPS auction which garnered a record indirect bid. Yields are expected to remain elevated near term, however, as the market continues to look to the start of rate lift-off around mid 2015. Additionally, there's $91 B in coupon supply in the upcoming Christmas shortened holiday week. However, the still wide spreads to Europe and the ongoing demand for yield from foreign accounts remains supportive and should temper the bearish tone. Also, month-end and year-end is coming into focus and that could prompt short covering. The Barclays' Treasury index is forecast to extend out 0.09 years, which should also underpin.
14:23 EDTMarket in midst of powerful two day advance
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13:50 EDTU.S. equities continue to leg it higher
U.S. equities continue to leg it higher with very little claw back (at the risk of inviting a slump into the close), with NASDAQ comp over 1.9% higher and the blue chips in hot pursuit. Today's data wasn't particularly impressive, so it's not the fundamentals. Crude oil's recovery to the $59-60 bbl zone was roundly rejected and it has since retreated below $56 bbl, so it's not that global growth proxy. Following Putin's forceful 3-hour press conference, Russian stocks are 4-7% firmer and the ruble rallied to 57.97 vs 79.91 lows on Tuesday vs the dollar, before backing off to 61.30. Perhaps. Yet, Jim O'Neill formerly of Goldman also agreed in a CNBC interview that the Fed has pulled off quite a "trick" by actually moving a step closer to tightening and somehow pacifying the markets. That sounds more like it - more smoke and mirrors and the vague promise of more global stimulus ex-Fed, such as the last resort NIRP undertaken by the SNB. Meanwhile yields are higher and that is helping to continue to prop up the dollar.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $16 B 5-year TIPS reopening was well received
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12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY's pop over 119.31 earlier
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12:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another flurry of activity
Euro$ interest rate options: another flurry of activity included some heavier put structures such as a bearish purchase of 15k in September 87/90 put spreads. There was a 10k purchase of Red June vs sale of Short June 85 put spreads, a bullish purchase of 8k in Green March 78/80 call spreads and a liquidation of 2.5k in Short January 85/87 put 1x2s. March 2015s are flat at 99.7050, with the deferreds as much as 12-ticks lower out the back as the Fed trajectory is reassessed in the wake of yesterday's convoluted statement.
12:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen said one of the FOMC's goals has been to "communicate"
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12:40 EDTTreasury 5-year TIPS preview:
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11:25 EDTFormer Fed Chairman Bernanke opined on monetary policy
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD remains over 1.1600
FX Action: USD-CAD remains over 1.1600 after topping out near 1.1630. The pairing has found support on the back of softer oil prices through the morning, though talk of standing offers in place from 1.1650 to 1.1700 are expected to cap gains going forward. Rumors of Repsol/Talisman backed selling interest remains in the market today.
11:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is well off its intra day high
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: lively block and pit trade
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending December 12
Gas inventories 64 Bcf draw vs. consensus of 60 Bcf draw.
10:25 EDTThe Philly Fed drop to 24.5 in December
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10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index dropped 16.3 points back to 24.5 in December
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields still remain elevated
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar showed little if any reaction
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10:08 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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10:08 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:48 EDTFed comments continue to push market higher
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09:25 EDTYellen's playbook puts labor slack over oil price declines:
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08:50 EDTThe 6k U.S. initial claims drop to 289k
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are on the warpath
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
Treasury Action: yields remained elevated in the wake of the drop in jobless claims, which did little to slow the ramp-on rally in equities in the wake of the Fed and SNB meetings. That's seen the T-note yield clear 2.18% earlier compared to the 2.13% close before consolidating again. The 2s-10s spread has widened out to +155 bp, while the 5s-30s has settled near +112 bp. Stocks are poised to open sharply higher.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar picked up marginally
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08:40 EDTThe Financial Stability Oversight Council to hold a meeting
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 6k to 289k in the week ended December 13
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08:34 EDTFutures continue to suggest sharply higher open
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude remained relatively firm
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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07:46 EDTThe Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on economic growth in 2015
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07:37 EDTThe SEC to hold a closed commission meeting
Closed Commission Meeting to discuss institution and settlement of injunctive actions, institution and settlement of administrative proceedings and other matters relating to enforcement proceedings is being held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on December 18 at 2 pm.
07:35 EDTThe FDA to hold a closed joint advisory committee meeting
The Reproductive & Urologic Drugs Advisory Committee and the Drug Safety & Risk Management Advisory Committee discuss whether the FDA should permit further clinical development of an existing investigational drug product, which will include the review of trade secret and/or confidential information, in a closed meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on December 18 at 8:15 am.
07:26 EDTStandard & Poor to hold a webinar
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07:14 EDTFed's comments lift futures
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07:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The main dollar pairings mostly consolidated
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 18
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05:54 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded higher
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December 17, 2014
17:23 EDTWeek of 12/26 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 12:00
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16:52 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:52 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:52 EDTWeek of 12/26 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00
16:50 EDTFed Statement Requires Considerable Patience from Markets:
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15:55 EDTFed funds futures were all over the board on the FOMC statement
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15:35 EDTFed discussed slowing growth abroad, including the fallout from Russia
Fed discussed slowing growth abroad, including the fallout from Russia as the ruble has depreciated enormously. But she noted that the spillovers to U.S. from Russia are likely to be small. Europe is more exposed to Russian events than the U.S. is. The FOMC will continue to monitor, though, as movements in oil prices can be large and unexpected. Leverage in the financial system is now way down compared to pre-crisis levels.
15:30 EDTYellen on dissents: there are a wide range of opinions on the Committee
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15:24 EDTYellen says spillovers to U.S. from Russia likely to be small
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15:15 EDTMore from Yellen: "a couple means two" according to the dictionary
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15:00 EDTFX Action: Fed Yellen's references to "begin 'normalization'
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15:00 EDTThe FOMC Forecast revisions
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15:00 EDTYellen said "patience" meand no rate moves over the next couple of meetings
Yellen said "patience" meand no rate moves over the next couple of meetings. But in another breath she added that "every meeting is live" for policy action. There were wide ranging views on rate hikes she confirmed. The Fed is "attentive" to global market developments. And the very substantial drop in oil prices is shaping the global outlook. Cheaper energy prices is like a tax cut to U.S. consumers and is a positive for the economy. There is also a downward effect on price pressures, but Yellen reiterated the slid in oil prices should be transitory.
14:52 EDTYellen says oil price drop 'like a tax cut' for households
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14:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: there's little information to be gleaded
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14:47 EDTYellen says rate hike could occur sooner than now anticipated
The Fed Chair said it's "unlikely" that a rate hike will occur in the first two meetings of the year. She said a number of FOMC members believe that a rate hike could occur in the middle of 2015.
14:45 EDTYellen says timeline for rate hike dependent on data
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14:43 EDTYellen says FOMC members differ on interest rate hike timeline
FOMC members have different views on when in 2015 the Fed should increase interest rates, Yellen said. Members want to see further improvement in the labor market before interest rates increase, she added.
14:41 EDTYellen says Fed unlikely to begin policy normalization in next couple meetings
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14:34 EDTYellen says Fed continues to expect moderate economic growth
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14:33 EDTYellen says still sees room for improvement in labor market
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14:31 EDTYellen says new guidance does not represent change in policy outlook
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14:19 EDTFed cuts 2015 inflation outlook to 1%-1.6% from 1.6%-1.9%
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14:18 EDTFed lowers 2015 unemployment outlook to 5.2%-5.3% from 5.4%-5.6%
14:18 EDTMarket at highs after Fed says can be patient on policy normalization
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14:17 EDTFed keeps 2015 GDP growth outlook unchanged at 2.6%-3%
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14:16 EDTFed lowers 2014 inflation outlook to 1.2%-1.3% from 1.5%-1.7%
14:16 EDTDeutsche Bank Russian strategist/economist analyst/industry conference call
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14:16 EDTFed lowers 2014 unemployment outlook to 5.8% from 5.9%-6%
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14:15 EDTFed raises 2014 GDP growth outlook to 2.3%-2.4% from 2%-2.2%
14:15 EDTFOMC said it can be "patient in beginning to normalize" its policy stance
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields knee-jerked lower initially
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14:05 EDTWeek of 12/26 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:05 EDTWeek of 12/27 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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14:03 EDTFed says 'can be patient' in beginning to normalize rates
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14:01 EDTFed says can 'be patient' in approach to raising rates
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14:00 EDTFederal Reserve keeps 'considerable time' phrase in statement
14:00 EDTFOMC preview: it's T-minus 10 and counting
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13:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries continue to drift lower into the FOMC
Treasury Action: Treasuries continue to drift lower into the FOMC announcement, taking the path of least resistance. Even though the markets have been setting up for the likely removal of "considerable time" as the Fed inches toward rate hikes, curve flatteners dominate. The 5s-30s spread narrowed over 2 bps to a fresh year-to-date low at 115 bps. Assuming "considerable time" is replaced with language suggesting the FOMC will take a patient approach to rate hikes, and Yellen shows no urgency in normalization, bonds can recover with the curve steepening out slightly for the near term.
13:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY traded a few points over
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12:40 EDTU.S. Cleveland Fed's CPI edged up 0.1% in November
U.S. Cleveland Fed's CPI edged up 0.1% in November, in contrast to the BLS's -0.3% print. The 16% trimmed mean rose 0.1% too, but in line with the BLS measure. The annual rate on the Median CPI was unchanged at 2.3% y/y, with the 16% trimmed mean at 1.8% y/y versus 1.9% y/y previously, versus the slowing in the BLS headline to a 1.3% y/y clip from 1.7% y/y and the core to 1.7% from 1.8%. So pretty much no matter what method is used to look at inflation, price pressures are steady or are moving lower.
12:30 EDTU.S. equities jerked back to highs
U.S. equities jerked back to highs ahead of the FOMC decision, closely tracking the $3 recovery in NYMEX crude back above $58 bbl as Russia also appeared to get its financial house in order and engineer a sharp rebound in the ruble. That has slashed losses on European stocks, with the Euro Stoxx 50 back in the green, while Russia's RTS is 14.4% higher. Blue Chips are leading the surge, up some 1.25%, followed by the NASDAQ comp for a change with a 1.0% gain. Within the Dow it is no coincidence that Chevron +4.6% and Exxon +3.4% are among the top gainers. The historic thaw of relations between Cuba and the U.S., along with prisoner exchanges and travel policies no doubt helped fuel some optimism on the margin as well. The expected FOMC decision to replace "considerable time" with "patience" is also seen as pretty palatable and more a function of improving fundamentals than a levy on the markets, especially after tame CPI. Note, the VIX equity volatility index is 7.7% lower near 21.75, down from highs of 24.61. The dollar has bounced and Treasury yields are back near session highs.
12:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded into 1.1610
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11:55 EDTU.S. swap spread narrowing has kicked in
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11:35 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to highs
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11:05 EDTDeutsche Bank Russian strategist/economist analyst/industry conference call
EMEA Economist Burgess, along with Chief Russian Strategist Pikulev, discuss their thoughts and trades on Russia on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 18 at 9 am.
11:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has bounced sharply
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10:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish positioning has been spied ahead of the FOMC decision, implying that the statement could be pretty tame despite any expected changes from "considerable" to "patient". Among them were a 5k purchase of Short January 91/92 call spreads vs 85/86/87 put butterflies. Also, a 5k purchase of September 95 calls vs 91/93 put spreads, a purchase of 3k in Green January call 1x2s and sale of 15k in Green January 78 puts. The March 2015 contract is flat at 99.705, while the deferreds are up to 3.5-ticks lower out the curve.
10:45 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $54.80
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of December 12
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10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: more mixed positioning
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09:47 EDTMarket opens higher despite lower oil prices
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09:45 EDTThe unexpected U.S. current account widening
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09:30 EDTMinneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota will not seek another term
Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota will not seek another term, according to the Fed's website. His term expires on February 29, 2016. He took office in 2009 and initially followed the hawkish reputation of the regional bank. But he shifted his views toward a very dovish outlook in recent years and supported active central bank intervention which clashed with the traditional stance of the research staff. Indeed, the transformation has so great that he even dissented at the October FOMC meeting in favor of keeping rates lower for longer. It looks unlikely that he would have been supported for a second term. Hence, today will be his final voting opportunity.
09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD stalled into Tuesday's 1.1665 highs in London trade
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09:15 EDTFOMC preview: the FOMC has resumed its meeting
FOMC preview: the FOMC has resumed its meeting and will announce its policy decision at 14:00 ET, with Yellen's press conference following at 14:30 ET. The strength in the economy and the labor market exhibited over the last couple of quarters should finally give policymakers enough confidence to continue its normalization process (after ending QE) by removing the "considerable time" language. But there won't be any definitive indication of the timing of rate lift-off. That will especially be the case given the failure of inflation to meet the 2% target (highlighted by the decline in November CPI), ongoing worries about a negative market reaction, not to mention the recent financial market turbulence. Indeed, analysts suspect the Committee will look beyond the recent volatility, as well as the signs of slower growth abroad as it crafts the policy statement. And this week's FOMC meeting offers the best opportunity for such changes since Yellen will be able to more fully explain the changes in the press conference. Nevertheless, assuming "considerable time" is removed, even if replaced by some indication of a "patient" approach, the markets will immediately jump to pricing in the first rate hike into the June 16, 17 meeting. That would be consistent with the 6-month time-frame suggested by Yellen's faux pas at her first presser back in March.
09:05 EDTThe big 0.3% November U.S. CPI headline drop undershot estimates
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09:05 EDTYellen's methodical style could tip scales on the "considerable time" debate
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08:56 EDTJPMorgan insurance analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities rebounded from lows
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.3% in November with the core rate edging up 0.1%
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08:45 EDTU.S. current account balance widened unexpectedly to -$100.3 B
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped
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08:37 EDTITG Research finance analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss how the United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is changing the global CSA landscape on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 17 at 11:30 am.
08:33 EDTCurrent Account data reported
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08:33 EDTFutures remain higher following report on consumer prices
Stock futures continue to indicate a market bounce at the open following the monthly consumer prices report. The data showed that prices fell 0.3% versus expectations of a decrease of 0.1%. The core reading, which excludes food and energy prices, showed an increase of 0.1% versus an expected increase of 0.1%. The Current Account Balance report showed a deficit of $100.3B versus expectations of a deficit of $97.5B.
08:20 EDTU.S. current account preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. CPI preview:
U.S. CPI preview: November headline CPI is expected to fall by 0.1% (median -0.1%) vs unchanged in October, while the core index rises 0.1% (median 0.1%) vs 0.2%. Energy prices are expected to dip 3% on the month, with a gasoline prices falling 6%. Food prices have risen in a 0.1%-0.4% range over the past three years, though the recent drought in California had an upward effect with the 0.5% May rise being the largest since August of 2011. Yet forecast risk is downward, as collapsing oil prices will likely weigh on the headline. For more detail, see our CPI preview.
08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude trades at $54.30
Oil Action: NYMEX crude trades at $54.30, after peaking at $55.94. The contract posted its low of the day just a few minutes ago, touching $54.20. Reports that OPEC and Russia will continue to pump have kept a cap on prices, with some cartel members saying they will wait a year or more for prices to stabilize. The underlying motive appears to be to put high cost U.S. shale producers out of business. Tuesday's $53.59 trend low is seen as initial support, though as has been the case for several weeks, when previous lows are broken, another round of selling quickly puts a fresh low in place.
07:58 EDTFederal Reserve Chairman Yellen holds press briefing
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07:51 EDTThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases meeting announcement
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07:50 EDTSPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF volatility elevated as yields rise
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF December call option implied volatility is at 27, January is at 16, March is a 14; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker on profit taking
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker on profit taking ahead of this afternoon's FOMC statement where risk is it leans to the hawkish side despite recent financial turbulence. There's also more unwinding of the flight to quality trade as Russian markets try to stabilize. The 10-year note yield has risen over 4 bps back to 4.10%. Overseas bond markets are mixed. The German Bund is outperforming with the yield slightly lower at 0.588%, held in check by dovish ECBspeak and soft inflation. Gilt rates are higher after a larger than expected decline in the claimant count. U.S. equity futures are correcting from this week's slide. Of course the FOMC, along with Yellen's press conference and the release of the Fed's new forecasts highlight. Today's data includes November CPI numbers and the Q3 current account. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.3% for the week ended December 12.
07:41 EDTFCC to hold a meeting of the WRC-15 Advisory Committee
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07:39 EDTThe SEC Advisory Committee on Small and Emerging Companies holds a meeting
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07:35 EDTFDA Food Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.3% in data released earlier, in addition to a 6.9% drop in the purchase index and a flat reading on the refinancing index. This continued the rather somber mortgage activity readings of late despite lower mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed rate coming in 5 basis points lower near 4.06%. That was the lowest level of mortgage rates since May 2013 as weaker global growth continued to trump sparks of improved domestic conditions. The Fed will be sensitive to the recovery in the housing sector, which "remains slow" and was the catalyst for the financial market crisis, though it still may desire to tune the policy setting for normalization. For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTGlobal Hunter Securities to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTFX Update: The has dollar traded firmer today
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07:19 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2014 Disruptive Technology Day is being held in New York on December 17.
07:19 EDTFutures suggest market bounce at the open
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07:18 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility up on movement
SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF overall option implied volatility of 57 compares to its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
06:56 EDTSentiment among Asian companies improved, Reuters says
An index that seeks to measures business sentiment among Asia's largest companies increased to 72 in Q4, up from 66 in the previous three months, according to Reuters. The reading was the second highest in almost three years, trailing only the 74 reading of the second quarter of this year, the news service added. Reference Link
06:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading relatively steadily
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 17
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05:57 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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04:34 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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01:30 EDTFX Update: The Aussie dove to new trend lows
FX Update: The Aussie dove to new trend lows with AUD-USD diving below 0.8200 and logging a four-year low at 0.8145. The didn't appear to be a catalyst, and stock markets and commodity prices were generally steadier in Asia-Pacific, though there remain prevailing concerns about the growth outlook in Asia and globally. The Asia Development Bank trimmed its growth forecast for the region to 6.1% from 6.2% for 2014 and to 6.2% from 6.4%. The NZD also traded lower after RBNZ's McDermott said that the exchange rates is still "unjustifiable" and "unsustainable." USD-JPY traded relatively steadily in Tokyo after yesterday's sharp decline to a 115.57 low and recovery to 117.76. Concerns that Russia may be headed for a default, similar to 1998 (the Russian central bank estimates that the economy will contract 4.6% in 2015 if oil prices stay at $60)) should keep a USD-JPY a sell on rallies. The yen traded sharply higher during the 1997-1998 financial crisis period. EUR-USD sank back below 1.2500 after peaking yesterday at 1.2569. Market focus is now squaring on the FOMC announcement and press conference. Analysts think the Fed will drop the "
December 16, 2014
23:00 EDTReaction to Japan's trade gap has been relatively mild
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18:01 EDTMoody's cuts Alaska outlook to Negative from Stable, cites price of oil
Moody's Investors Service has revised the credit outlook for the State of Alaska to negative from stable, following a plunge in oil prices since the start of the state's fiscal year that now threatens to rapidly and significantly reduce the state's budgetary reserves. The outlook applies to $840M of general obligation debt, rated Aaa; $290M of subject-to-appropriation debt, rated Aa1; and to about $870M of bonds backed by the state's moral obligation that have been issued by the Alaska Municipal Bond Bank and by the Alaska Energy Authority and that are rated Aa2. At the same time, we have affirmed the Aaa rating assigned to the state's GO bonds, the Aa1 rating assigned to subject-to-appropriation debt, and the Aa2 rating assigned to the moral obligation bonds. Reference Link
17:22 EDT.
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17:22 EDTWeek of 12/27 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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17:22 EDTWeek of 12/27 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
15:11 EDTSPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF volatility spikes as ETF at three-year low
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF December call option implied volatility is at 17, January is at 15, March is a t3; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A wild ride on Tuesday saw further trend lows in oil pull the carpet out from under the Russian ruble, in turn provoking a 6.5% hike in Russian base rates to 17%. Initially that saw stocks, yields and the dollar plunge as the risk switch flipped to "off", but the ruble eventually fought its way back with stocks, the dollar and yields following suit. Quite a day for the FOMC to begin to assess its rhetorical options and potential market reaction, while both housing starts and Markit flash PMI faltered.
14:45 EDTOil price volatility leading to swings in equity market
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14:35 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipment Preview
Canada Wholesale Shipment Preview: Analysts expect shipments, due Wednesday, to fall 0.5% in October after the 1.8% surge in September. The forecast risk is downward given the hefty gain in September. While this report is typically overlooked, but an as expected drop would track expectations for a slowing in October GDP to a 0.1% m/m rate of growth after the 0.4% surge in September GDP.
13:47 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust December volatility elevated at 123
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13:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bullish positioning was the rule
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13:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered sharply
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13:10 EDTFOMC preview: the FOMC began its meeting
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12:50 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
FOMC Forecast revisions from this week's FOMC meeting will be revealed Wednesday, and later in the January 7 FOMC minutes. Analysts expect boosts in the 2014 GDP and PCE chain price figures due to stronger Q3 and Q4 growth prospects since September and the sharp year-end plunge in oil prices. Analysts expect a trimming in 2014 high-end estimates for core inflation and the Fed funds rate. Beyond 2014, the GDP growth estimates are likely to be trimmed and narrowed, as only the low-end estimates look too pessimistic, while headline inflation will likely be lowered modestly in 2015 and 2016 given the weak trajectory for energy prices and lower global growth estimates. Future core inflation estimates will likely be lowered only slightly. All the jobless rate estimate will likely be lowered, as is typical at each meeting given continued weak labor force growth. Future Fed funds rate estimates should be narrowed slightly, as views converge toward the consensus. page for a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts.
12:30 EDTOil Action: Crude trade remains very volatile
Oil Action: Crude trade remains very volatile, with the NYMEX contract running up to $57.11 from trend lows of $53.59, then sliding to current $55.49 lows. Weak shorts were squeezed out on the move over $56 according to sources, with fast money reportedly the sellers on the quick move over $57.
12:15 EDTU.S. VIX volatility slumped back toward 20.0
U.S. VIX volatility slumped back toward 20.0 as oil, the ruble and stocks all made some headway frmo lows, after roaming as high as 2-month highs 25.20 earlier. The surge in the VIX started from lows near 11.53 on payrolls Friday earlier in the month and now looks to have some resistance in the 25.0 area. The S&P 500 broke below 2k yesterday and lanced its 100-day moving average of 1,988 en route to December lows of 1,976.4 today before snapping back to highs of 2,016.8.
11:45 EDTTreasury $40 B 4-week bill auction was mixed
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities recovered some poise
U.S. equities recovered some poise taking their signal from the recovery in the ruble below 70.0 vs the dollar to 68.0, while crude oil has backed up over $55 bbl again. That has inspired some short-covering gains on the major indices, led by NASDAQ at +0.6%. The Euro Stoxx 50 has gained 1.5% and the Italian MIB is 2.7% higher, while Russia's MICEX has flipped 1.3% into the green (RTS still -12.3%). Top gainers in the Dow are Chevron +2.3%, Boeing +2.0% and 3M +1.7%. USD-JPY is playing along with the "risk on" rebound, angling toward session highs near 118.01 again.
10:58 EDTStifel REITs analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:50 EDTTreasury Curve Action: flattening into the FOMC
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10:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has traded up to $55.20 highs
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10:27 EDTCrashing ruble, sliding crude prices weigh on equities
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10:24 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Industrials Analyst Research Team provides a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 16 at 11 am.
10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded off its 1.1665 high
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI dropped to 53.7 in December
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09:20 EDTThe 1.6% November U.S. housing starts drop
The 1.6% November U.S. housing starts drop to a 1.028 M clip defied much of the expected weather-hit thanks to a hefty bounce in activity in the West, while permits fell 5.2% to a still respectable 1.035 M. Home completions fell 6.4%, with a shortfall in the Northeast and Midwest, that marked the only clear weather-impact. Analysts saw solid growth in housing starts "under construction" that guides GDP forecasts. Harsh weather began in the second week of November, but it had little apparent impact on the jobs data from the BLS survey week and on today's starts and permits data, though the utility figures from the last industrial production report revealed a massive 5.1% surge, and completions have posted a 9.2% two-month drop. Starts and permits are poised for quarterly rates of 1.031 M and 1.052 M respectively that still reflects a net weather-hit, after prior rates of 1.030 M for both in Q3 (was 1.031 for starts). Analysts still assume that weather at least partly disrupts the November data for new and existing home sales, as well as construction spending, alongside the flat November construction hours-worked figure.
09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: after a very slow start
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved lower
FX Action: The dollar moved lower after the housing starts data, which were largely in line with consensus. EUR-USD rallied toward 1.2535 from 1.2510 as USD-JPY eased into 116.25 from 116.50. The dollar has since recovered most of its knee-jerk losses. Equity futures have recovered some of their losses since the N.Y. open, while yields are off their lows as well. NYMEX crude meanwhile, has posted fresh trend lows of $53.69.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts fell 1.6% to 1.028 M in November
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
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08:42 EDTBernstein utilities analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTStock futures show little interest in housing data
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08:30 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $54.00
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08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
U.S. Housing Starts Preview: November housing starts should reveal a 1.9% headline decline to a 990k (median 1,025k) pace for the month from 1,009k in October. Also in the release will be permits which should decline to 1,010k from 1,092k in October and completions which are seen rising to 900k from 881k in October.
08:10 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index posted a 3.0% rebound
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07:58 EDTBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve to hold a closed meeting
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07:56 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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07:48 EDTFDA Food Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses science issues surrounding susceptible life stages or populations and circumstances under which the FDA might decide to conduct a separate risk assessment for these populations in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on December 16 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher in a flight to quality
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07:32 EDTThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a meeting
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07:31 EDTWolfe Research to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTFX Action: The JPY is surging, and the RUB is plunging
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07:10 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY drove broader dollar declines
FX Update: USD-JPY drove broader dollar declines, while strong Eurozone PMI data supported EUR-USD. USD-JPY touched a low of 116.22, the lowest since Nov-17 and some 140 pips down on yesterday's closing level. A lot of commentaries pointed to the extended losses in Japanese stock markets, with the Nikkei closing 2% down today, as driving the yen higher. A mixture of interbank and speculative selling, along with sell-stop orders were also in the mix. Weak PMI figure out of China weighted on stocks in Asia, though equities managed to recover from a six-day losing streak in Europe. EUR-USD, meanwhile, logged a three-week high of 1.2528 in the wake of the PMI data. As from the data influences, there has also been a dollar-negative narrative in markets that says the recent dive in oil prices will strengthen the voice of the doves at the Fed's FOMC this week (announcement Wednesday), though analysts still expect the "considerable time" phrase to be dropped. AUD-USD scraped out a fresh four-year low of 0.8200 before recovering to the mid-0.82s. The minutes to the RBA's December meeting repeated that rate stability is likely most prudent course and that a further fall in currency is needed for economy. Cable rebounded recovered the 1.57 handle after a post-data dip to 1.5610, even though UK November CPI fell to 1.0%, the lowest since September 2002.
07:05 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY drove broader dollar declines
FX Update: USD-JPY drove broader dollar declines, while strong Eurozone PMI data supported EUR-USD. USD-JPY touched a low of 116.22, the lowest since Nov-17 and some 140 pips down on yesterday's closing level. A lot of commentaries pointed to the extended losses in Japanese stock markets, with the Nikkei closing 2% down today, as driving the yen higher. A mixture of interbank and speculative selling, along with sell-stop orders were also in the mix. Weak PMI figure out of China weighted on stocks in Asia, though equities managed to recover from a six-day losing streak in Europe. EUR-USD, meanwhile, logged a three-week high of 1.2528 in the wake of the PMI data. As from the data influences, there has also been a dollar-negative narrative in markets that says the recent dive in oil prices will strengthen the voice of the doves at the Fed's FOMC this week (announcement Wednesday), though analysts still expect the "considerable time" phrase to be dropped. AUD-USD scraped out a fresh four-year low of 0.8200 before recovering to the mid-0.82s. The minutes to the RBA's December meeting repeated that rate stability is likely most prudent course and that a further fall in currency is needed for economy. Cable rebounded recovered the 1.57 handle after a post-data dip to 1.5610, even though UK November CPI fell to 1.0%, the lowest since September 2002.
06:39 EDTChina PMI signals factory contraction, Reuters says
The output of China's factories fell in December for the first time in seven months, as the flash HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 49.5 this month, versus the 50.0 reading forecast by analysts, according to Reuters. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Reference Link
06:06 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility increases as ruble & stocks decline
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 16
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06:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has led broader dollar declines
FX Action: USD-JPY has led broader dollar declines today. The pair touched a low of 116.22, the lowest point seen since Nov-17 and some 140 pips down on yesterday's closing level. A lot of commentaries are pointing to the extended losses in Japanese stock markets, with the Nikkei closing 2% down today, as driving the yen higher. Interbank and speculative traders have also been riding sell-stop orders. Asia stock markets were affected by the Markit/HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI for December, which came in at 49.5 in the flash estimate, down on the 49.8 median and the first sub-50 contractionary reading in seven months. European stocks have fared better, managing to rebound from a six-day decline. Bigger picture fundamentals remain yen bearish with PM Abe's landslide victory at the weekend's election giving a fresh mandate to yen-negative 'Abenomics' policies.
05:44 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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02:35 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY led the dollar lower
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02:30 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY led the dollar lower
FX Update: USD-JPY led the dollar lower today. The pair's move correlated fresh declines in Asian stock markets following the Markit/HSBC China manufacturing PMI for December, which came in at 49.5 in the flash estimate, down on the 49.8 median and first sub-50 contractionary reading in seven-months. USD-JPY logged a one-month low of 117.12, which is just over 50 pips down on Monday's New York closing level. Japan's Markit manufacturing PMI for December, came in at 52.1 in the initial estimate. The decline in USD-JPY led dollar losses elsewhere, though most pairings remained within the ranges seen yesterday. EUR-USD lifted back above 1.2450. AUD-USD edged out a fresh four-year low of 0.8200 before recovering to the 0.8240 area. The minutes to the RBA's December meeting repeat that rate stability is likely most prudent course and that a further fall in currency is needed for economy.
December 15, 2014
23:10 EDTChina's preliminary manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) fell to 49.5 in December
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17:21 EDTRussia raises key rate to 17% per annum
The following is a statement from the The Central Bank of the Russian Federation: "From 16 December 2014 the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the Bank of Russia key rate to 17% per annum. This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks. From 16 December 2014 in order to strengthen the efficiency of monetary policy loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for 2 to 549 days will be provided at a floating interest rate, set at the Bank of Russia key rate level, increased by 1.75 percentage points (up to the present these loans for 2 to 90 days were provided at fixed rate). Moreover, for further expanse of credit institution ability to manage their foreign exchange liquidity it was decided to increase maximum allotment amount for 28-day FX REPO auctions from 1.5 to 5.0 billion USD and to conduct 12-month FX REPO auctions on weekly basis." Reference Link
17:07 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:07 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:28 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $1.4 B in net long-term assets
U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $1.4 B in net long-term assets in October, after purchasing $164.3 B in September. But, overseas accounts purchased $178.4 B in net assets in October versus a sale of $57.2 B (revised from -$55.6 B). Only $0.54 B in Treasury coupons were bought in October, compared to $48.1 B previously, while $7.9 B in corporate bonds were purchased, along with $3.6 B in agencies; accounts sold $27.2 B in equities. China was the largest seller of Treasury coupons, dumping $13.6 B, followed by France (-$12.6 B) and then Russia (-$8.8 B). Ireland was the biggest buyer of Treasuries at $13.3 B, followed by the Caribbean ($9.9 B), then Luxembourg ($6.4 B).
15:05 EDTBill Gross of Janus likes TIPS
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTStocks enduring see-saw action as oil prices fall again
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14:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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13:59 EDTDirexion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares volatility elevated on wide energy movement
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted trend highs of 1.1652
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13:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: now some activity
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13:05 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
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12:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility is off earlier highs
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12:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is attempting to make a recovery
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is attempting to make a recovery, trading back up to $56.69 after posting trend lows of $55.84. Stop loss selling under $56 was reportedly met with strong fund buying, presumably short covering in nature.
12:20 EDTU.S. equities have skidded lower
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to 1.1640
FX Action: USD-CAD rallied to 1.1640, matching the June 2009 highs before pulling back marginally. WTI oil has plunged to new trend lows of $55.84 lows, with the break of $56 now opening the door for a test of $55.00. USD CAD stops are seen at 1.1650 now.
11:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is on N.Y. session lows
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11:45 EDTTreasury $50 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was soft
Treasury $50 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was soft. The $24 B 3-month bill was awarded at 0.035%, right on the screws, but a little cheaper than last week's 0.025%. There were $95.1 B in bids for a 3.98 cover, below the prior 4.51as well as the 4.57 average. Indirect bidders took 11.3%, below the prior 31.0%. The $26 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.11%, also right on the bid at the auction deadline. Bids totaled $98.6 B for a 3.81 cover, also below last week's 4.20 and compares to the 4.18 average. Indirect bidders accepted 37.0% versus the prior 39.1%.
11:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call positioning
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11:31 EDTiPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return volatility increases, WTI crude below $57
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11:30 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening resumed
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11:20 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a package trade
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11:06 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is following Wall Street's lead
FX Action: USD-JPY is following Wall Street's lead, falling to session lows of 118.20, as Wall Street gives back all its opening gains. WTI oil has turned under $57, as yields stabilize near lows. U.S. backed fund bids are seen into 118.00 now, though acceleration of risk-off conditions could see the figure threatened quickly.
10:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:22 EDTCapital Link to hold a webinar
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields retreated further
Treasury Action: yields retreated further after the NAHB missed as well, with the earlier Empire shortfall also providing some counter-balance to the jump in industrial production. The T-note yield earlier stalled over 2.135% and dipped as low as 2.11% before finding some equillibrium near 2.12%. The 2s-10s spread has continued to narrow to +153 bp, tightening about 2 bp as the approaching FOMC meeting is keeping the front-end elevated, while the long-end is capped by declining global yields. The 5s-30s spread has narrowed to +118 bp.
10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1604 highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell back to 57 in December
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10:09 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
December Housing Market Index at 57 vs. consensus of 59
09:55 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
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09:55 EDTThe 1.3% November U.S. industrial production pop beat estimates
The 1.3% November U.S. industrial production pop beat estimates, after upward revisions that left a 0.1% (was -0.1%) October figure, an even bigger 0.9% (was 0.8%) utility-led September rise, and a smaller 0.1% (was 0.2%) August drop. The upside November surprise reflected a bigger than expected 5.1% weather-led utility surge, alongside a big 1.1% increase in manufacturing, a vehicle-assembly rate bounce to a 12.0 M rate from a depressed 11.1 M October pace, and a 1.2% surge in business equipment output. Mining surprised to the downside however, with a 0.1% November drop that extended a 1.0% (was 0.9%) November decline to suggest a rapid hit from falling oil prices. Industrial production is poised for a solid 6% utility-boosted rate in Q4 despite today's weak Empire State data thanks to atypical cold winter weather, after rates of 4.0% (was 3.3%) in Q3, 5.7% in Q2, and 3.9% in Q1. Analysts've seen a factory outperformance of GDP through this expansion, and particularly in recent quarters, though this may change if oil prices end up having an outsized impact on the factory sector.
09:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call buying
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09:44 EDTDow bounces back, opens with triple digit gain
Stock futures were higher during the pre-market trading session as oil prices saw a rebound to begin the week. The futures remained higher despite disappointing data from the Empire manufacturing report, leading to a higher open for the broader market. The price of oil weakened just before the market open, so it remains to be seen if the market can hold its early gains. However, in early trading, the Dow is up 123 points, the Nasdaq is up 35 points and the S&P is up 16 points.
09:32 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures is recently down 2.17 to 31.74
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09:30 EDTU.S. industrial production jumped 1.3% in November
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows on the jump in industrial production, which gave the T-note yield a leg back up over 2.12% from 2.1080% NY lows earlier. The 2s-10s spread is trading just inside +154 bp from +155 bp earlier. Stocks have recouped some pre-open gain once more and the dollar has bounced.
09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up a few points
FX Action: The dollar perked up a few points following the much better industrial production outcome, pushing EUR-USD under 1.2430, and USD-JPY toward 118.80. Equity futures moved to their best levels of the day, as yields bounced a touch.
09:18 EDTDecember Empire State Mfg Survey to be released at 08:30
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09:10 EDTThe Empire State plunge to a -3.6 two-year low
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09:05 EDTU.S. industrial production preview:
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities managed to rebound
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased from highs
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped slightly
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08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index collapsed to -3.6 in December
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08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following New York economic data
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08:32 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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08:32 EDT Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker Speech to be released at 12:30
08:32 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 10:00
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08:15 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $58.69 highs
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08:00 EDTTreaury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker
Treaury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker, in tandem with losses in European bonds as equities rally. The 10-year yield is up over 4 bps to 2.126%, erasing about half of Friday's rally. While Asian stocks sunk under the weight of the declines on Wall Street last week, gains in European bourses and a pick up in crude prices have underpinned a recovery in U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, the focus is shifting to the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), where "considerable time" could be removed from the policy statement, which is a worry for bond holders. Sources report a large block seller of 10-year futures overnight. Along with the FOMC, it's a busy week for data with key reports on inflation, production, and housing. Today's agenda includes November industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing index, the December NAHB homebuilder confidence index and October Treasury capital flows.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:41 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a discussion
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07:36 EDTEconomics Club of Washington, D.C. to hold a dinner meeting
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07:35 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion on the federal budget
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07:25 EDTMarket poised to begin week in positive territory
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered
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06:30 EDTUK CBI industrial trends came in slightly above forecasts
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05:53 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 15
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05:46 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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04:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered the 118.50 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has recovered the 118.50 handle amid a broader dollar recovering during the London AM session after it had come under pressure in Asia. The yen has been choppy, initially declining in the early Tokyo session as the market reacted to PM Abe's landslide victory at the weekend's election, which gives a fresh mandate to yen-negative 'Abenomics' policies, before firming in on-the-fact manner as the outcome had been widely anticipated.. Analysts see that the overall bias for USD-JPY will remain to the upside, anticipating further gains above 120.0.
03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded softer
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December 14, 2014
18:08 EDTWeek of 12/24 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
18:08 EDTWeek of 12/15 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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12:46 EDTSenate passes $1.1T spending bill, Bloomberg says
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December 12, 2014
20:15 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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20:15 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
November Leading Indicators will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.6% for the month
20:15 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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20:15 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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20:15 EDTCurrent Account to be reported at 08:30
Current Account will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is $[96.3]B
20:15 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
December PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 55.5
20:15 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
December Housing Market Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 59
20:15 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
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20:15 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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16:14 EDTFitch downgrades France rating to 'AA' from 'AA+'; Outlook Stable
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:42 EDTOil weakness spills into other markets
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13:02 EDTCBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index +12.6% to 50.82
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13:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: quite a mix of activity
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12:00 EDTFed may become dovish as oil prices plunge
Fed may become dovish as oil prices plunge claimed Janus bond guru Bill Gross in a Bloomberg report, saying the Fed will have to take lower oil prices into consideration and, "I think that yes, it moves towards a dovish stance relative to what the market expected a few days ago." Gross cited the Fed moving away from its 2% inflation target as a result, leaving it less likely to move away from its "considerable time" reference with any urgency. He also said that this has impacted levered money, which is causing some violent price movements, noting that there is "very little liquidity" in the corporate bond markets.
11:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude fell to $57.94 lows
Oil Action: NYMEX crude fell to $57.94 lows, before recovering the $58 handle. Today's move marks a 21% decline from $73.54 highs seen just prior to the November 27 OPEC meeting, where the "cartel" decided to let the market determine oil prices. Sources are loath to pick a bottom, though say a move over $59 will be needed quickly to take the pressure off. A N.Y. close under $58 is liable to open the flood gates again, with the next major target being May, 2009 lows of $50.66.
11:40 EDTU.S. equities resumed their slide
U.S. equities resumed their slide and the VIX equity volatility guage is at session highs over 20.50 again, which seems to have its nexis in fresh declines on crude oil as the WTI slips below $58 bbl for a 2.9% decline on the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 2.2% lower, while Greek stocks are lagging at -0.4% on Athens. At least air traffic control over London has been resumed after a server glitch halted flights at Heathrow. Within the Dow the deepest decline has been by IBM as Big Blue sinks 2.4%, followed by Caterpillar -2.1% and Chevron -1.9%. Still up on the day are NIKE +0.4% and Wal-Mart +0.3% after brighter consumer sentiment. Treasury yields are back at lows.
11:35 EDTFX Action: Dollar gains post-Michigan sentiment have more than evaporated
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11:30 EDTMinneapolis Fed uber-dove Kocherlakota will not seek another term
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11:05 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility cleared 20.0
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10:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: a curve trade
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10:25 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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10:20 EDTThe December Michigan sentiment pop to a 93.8 cycle-high
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10:15 EDTFX Action: the dollar snapped to attention
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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10:05 EDTU.S. Consumer Sentiment surged to a preliminary 93.8 in December
U.S. Consumer Sentiment surged to a preliminary 93.8 in December, much better than expected (median 89.5) from a final 88.8 in November, as reported by the University of Michigan.
09:58 EDTOil prices slump again, weigh on equities
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09:50 EDTU. Michigan consumer sentiment preview:
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09:44 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:40 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:38 EDTCredit Suisse energy/oil analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Energy -Oil Analysts discuss the end of expensive oil and the implications across the investment universe on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 12 at 10 am.
09:27 EDTUBS software analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:19 EDTUBS software analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has taken out its initial downside target
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities got sucked lower
U.S. equities got sucked lower following another weaker round of data in Europe and China again, along with rising Greek concerns and a sagging oil price. NYMEX crude fell under $59 bbl after the IEA cut global demand forecasts, keeping the deflation macro trade in play. Of course, this was followed by a 0.2% headline drop in November PPI, along side a flat core reading that won't keep the Fed awake at night. The Dow is 86-points lower, S&P fell 8-points and NASDAQ is down 20-points, above earlier lows with some relief on the inflation front. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.4% lower following weaker Eurozone industrial output and employment, though Athens is slightly higher, while the Shanghai Comp actually rose 0.42% after weaker industrial production. In company news, Adobe Systems surged 7% after plans to buy Fotolia, though that can't hold a torch to the 105% gain on ChemoCentryx after a positive drug trial. Up next is U. Michigan preliminary sentiment.
08:55 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. November PPI drop with a flat core price figure sat just below estimates
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to skid lower
Treasury Action: yields continued to skid lower with the perfect storm of weaker European and Chinese data, along with a drop in PPI that suggests the Fed shouldn't be in a rush to alter policy. The 10-year yield sank from the 2.17% area in Asia to probe 2.11% in early NY trade, while the 2-year yield swung from 0.60% to test 0.565% and the bond yield probed under 2.78% to eye 2.673% October 17 lows. The 2s-10s spread continued to flatten to +155 bp, while 5s-30s traded to +122 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. overall-PPI fell 0.2% in November
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar showed little reaction
FX Action: The dollar showed little reaction to the PPI data, where the headline was a tenth cooler than expectations. EUR-USD wiggled between 1.2443-55, as USD-JPY edged up to 228.45 from 118.30. Equity futures and Treasury yields remain in the tank, and it appears analysts are in for another risk-off session, with oil prices back under $59.00 in early trade.
08:37 EDTJPMorgan energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:36 EDTFutures under pressure as oil prices tumble
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to five-year highs of 1.1591
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI preview:
U.S. PPI preview: November overall-PPI is expected to fall 0.1% (median -0.1%) vs 0.2% in October, with an unchanged core index figure (median 0.1%) vs 0.4%. Forecast risk is downward, however, as analysts expect collapsing oil prices to weigh on the release as WTI prices declined 10.3% over the period. preview.
08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude slid to new five-year lows
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: The flight to quality has driven yields to fresh lows
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:19 EDTOil prices push equities lower
Stock futures are sharply lower as oil prices have now fallen below $59 a barrel. The debate continues as to whether oil prices are tumbling due to lower demand or oversupply. The latter situation would be more positive for the economy. Investors will be watching oil prices, but they will also examine a report on producer prices and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence report.
07:18 EDTWedbush to hold a tour
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07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded lower
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07:09 EDTProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil volatility at upper end of five-year range
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07:03 EDTiPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return volatility elevated on lower energy prices
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return overall option implied volatility of 41 compares to its 26-week average of 25.
06:49 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility up on $60 oil
SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF overall option implied volatility of 44 compares to its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
06:37 EDTChinese factory output missed expectations in November, Reuters says
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06:32 EDTEuro zone industrial production rose slightly in October, Reuters says
The euro zone's industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in October and 0.7% versus the same period a year earlier, the EU reported, according to Reuters. Economists expected the increase to come in at 0.2% month-over-month, the news service stated. Energy output tumbled 2.5% year-over-year, but production of non-durable consumer goods registered a 1.8% monthly increase, the news service quoted the EU as saying. Reference Link
06:20 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 12
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05:46 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
04:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has taken a wobble
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02:50 EDTFX Update: Relatively narrow ranges have prevailed
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December 11, 2014
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has traded under $60.00
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14:12 EDTWallachBeth Capital healthcare analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more selling is kicking in
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields took a dive
Treasury Action: long yields took a dive on the very respectable 30-year reopening, which just validated the curve flattening trend, even after the modest concession build in this morning. The 30-year cash yield had backed up from 2.80% lows to highs of 2.875% before slumping under 2.85% again, compared to the 2.848% award rate on the reopened bonds. The 5s-30s spread has narrowed to +122 bp as a result, another 3 bp tighter on the session.
13:10 EDTTreasury's $13 B 30-year reopening was strong
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12:50 EDTTreasury $13 B bond reopening preview:
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12:40 EDTU.S. household net worth sank to $81.35 tln in Q3
U.S. household net worth sank to $81.35 tln in Q3 from $81.49 tln in Q2 in the first decline since Q3 of 2011, according to the Fed's flow of funds report, while household debt rose at a 2.7% annual rate in Q3. This was following a hit to stock portfolios and rising debts that quarter to fund housing and vehicle purchases and the like. Non-financial firms had $1.80 tln in liquid assets in Q3, compared to $1.82 tln in Q2. Stocks netted out with slightly positive returns in Q3 before ramping higher in Q4 following their October-15 "global margin call" low.
12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: a large package
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11:45 EDTTreasury $13 B 30-year auction outlook:
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $16 B 5-year TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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11:09 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount data reported
5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount at $16.0 B
11:09 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:09 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
3-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796EZ8
11:09 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:05 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:00 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners took a little breather
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10:45 EDTU.S. VIX has retreated 12.7% to 16.17
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending December 5
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10:20 EDTThe 0.2% October U.S. business inventory rise slightly undershot estimates
The 0.2% October U.S. business inventory rise slightly undershot estimates, after an unrevised 0.3% September rise, and analysts still expect a Q3 GDP growth boost to 4.2% from 3.9%. The small price-restrained October inventory rise reflected a lean 0.2% retail increase alongside already-reported gains of 0.1% for factories and 0.4% for wholesalers. The boost analysts expect in Q3 GDP growth reflects no revision in retail inventories, alongside already expected upward revisions of $3 B for wholesale inventories, $6 B for construction, $4 B for consumption, and $1 B for equipment, but a $4 B downward revision for net exports. Analysts expect 3.0% GDP growth in Q4 that incorporates an $8 B inventory boost with a lofty $90 B accumulation rate, following a $2.7 (was $5.7) Q3 inventory subtraction. Note that the 1.30 inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio over the last three months sits at the high end of the 1.27-1.30 range evident since April of 2012, aside from a similar temporary January pop to 1.31, and GDP growth should be restrained by unwinding inventory accumulation into 2015.
10:15 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.2% in October with sales down 0.1%
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yield have backed up
Treasury Action: yield have backed up from lows as stocks gathered a head of steam following earlier retail sales gains, while the 0.2% rise in business inventories was just a footnote. The 10-year yield snapped back from 2.14% lows earlier and extended gains through 2.19%. The curve has steepened as a result with the 2s-10s spread out from +157 bp morning narrows to +158.4 bp, while the 5s-30s spread narrowed from +126.5 bp to +125 bp. Focus shifts now to the $13 B 30-year bond reopening.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction
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10:03 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
October Business Inventories up 0.2% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
09:53 EDTStocks bounce back after sell-off despite continued oil weakness
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC will have a big decision to make next week
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09:45 EDTThe U.S. trade price report revealed outsized export price declines
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09:40 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
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09:30 EDTThe 3k U.S. initial claims drop to 294k
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09:25 EDTThe U.S. retail sales report sharply outpaced assumptions
The U.S. retail sales report sharply outpaced assumptions, given a sturdy 0.7% November headline gain with a 0.5% ex-auto increase that followed upward revisions for September and October, with upward November surprises and prior boosts for most of the major sales components that have lifted our GDP estimates for Q3 and Q4. For retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, which guide the real consumption component of GDP, analysts saw a solid 0.6% November rise that marks the tenth consecutive month of 0.3%-1.1% gains, following a 0.7% (was 0.6%) October increase and a 0.3% (was 0.2%) September rise. Analysts now expect a Q3 GDP growth boost to 4.2% from 3.9% with an assumed $1 B boost for goods consumption alongside already expected upward revisions of $3 B for service consumption, $6 B for construction, $1 B for equipment, and $3 B for wholesale inventories, and a $4 B downward revision for trade. Analysts raised our Q4 GDP growth estimate to 3.0% (was 2.5%) with a 4.0% (was 3.6%) Q4 clip for real consumption after a revised 2.4% (was 2.2%) Q3 rate. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.1% October sales drop, after a flat September figure. Today's data imply a flat business sales figure in next month's November report.
09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched fresh trend highs of 1.1522
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish package
Treasury Option Action: a bearish package involved a sale of 4k in February 128 calls vs a purchase of 123/124.5/126 put butterflies on 10-year futures, with a 13 credit to the call side. March 10s are 2.5-ticks firmer near 127-055 compared to a session range of 127-12 to 126-31.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities have rebounded as crude oil prices have stabilized
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08:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is in the tank
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
FX Action: The dollar edged higher after the mix of data, where import prices fell in line with expectations, retail sales beat the Street, and jobless claims were slightly lower than expected. EUR-USD dipped to 1.2420 from 1.2440, as USD-JPY moved up to 118.70 from 118.45. Yields moved up some, as equity futures padded their earlier gains on the better sales data.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November with the ex-auto component up 0.5%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices declined 1.5% in November, while export prices dropped 1.0%
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08:42 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 12/6 Jobless Claims at 294K vs. consensus of 295K
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dipped 3k to 294k in the week ended December 6
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08:37 EDTFutures continue to suggest higher open following economic data
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: initial jobless claims are expected to drop 2k to 295k (median 295k) in the week-ended December 6. Continuing claims are expected to fall 27k to 2,335k for the week-ended November 29. Forecast risk is downward, as claims face some risk of holiday induced gyrations. preview.
08:15 EDTCanada Capacity Utilization Preview
Canada Capacity Utilization Preview: Analysts expect the capacity use rate to rise to 83.0% in Q3 from 82.7% in Q2. The anticipated improvement in the rate of capacity use tracks the solid momentum in Canada's GDP in Q2 (+3.6%) and Q3 (+2.8%). The BoC's measure of the output gap (released separately) was -0.5 in Q3 from -0.6 in Q2 (was -0.7). The report will confirm the improvement in the traditional measures of capacity. But not to worry the BoC says, as labour market indicators remain consistent with ample slack.
08:15 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade prices preview:
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08:13 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:58 EDTThe FDA to hold a public workshop
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07:51 EDTJMP Securities to hold a tour
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields extended lower
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07:35 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit is being held in London, England on December 11.
07:21 EDTFutures steady in early trading
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07:21 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:20 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2014 Chicago Healthcare 1:1 Conference is being held in Chicago on December 11.
07:18 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a summit
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar rebounded
FX Update: The dollar rebounded after extending to fresh correction lows. Data misses in Japan and the U.K. helped support USD-JPY and weigh on GBP-USD. A plethora of central bank announcements brought mixed market responses. The NOK dove a 5-year low on an unexpected Norges Bank rate cut, while NZD-USD surged after the RBNZ lifted growth forecasts after leaving policy unchanged. EUR-CHF, meanwhile, fell to 1.2015-17 from levels above 1.2030 in the wake of the SNB announcement of unchanged policy. SNB's Jordan said upward pressure on the franc has "intensified," and that the cap will be enforced with "utmost determination." EUR-USD saw choppy trade centred on 1.2450 after leaving a 10-day high of 1.2495 in Asia. The ECB allotted EUR 129.85 B in the second TLTRO, below the Bloomberg median, fuelling speculation that the central bank will be forced to full-blown QE. USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 117.43 in Tokyo before recovering to a peak of 118.88. The move was aided by Japanese Oct machinery orders which dove 6.4% m/m, contrary to hopes for modest improvement. Cable saw a 2-week high at 1.5757 in Asia before dropping over 100 pips, making a low at 1.5652. The U.K. Nov RICS house price balance fell to +13%, below the median for 15%.
05:49 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 11
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05:45 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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02:35 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted fresh correction lows
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02:03 EDTWeek of 12/19 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 12:00
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December 10, 2014
16:59 EDTWeek of 12/19 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00
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16:59 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:59 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Oil continued to spill lower on Wednesday and set up another bout of risk aversion via the global recession scenario, as the big macro trade of yesteryear continued to be unwound. This put stocks and the dollar back under pressure, while yields retested Tuesday lows after OPEC cut demand forecasts and inventory builds sent WTI to test $60 bbl 5-year lows. A rise MBA mortgage market applications and narrowing of the November budget gap book-ended the session, but 10-year reopening fared well thanks safe haven demand offsetting the issue's richness.
15:04 EDTTreasury Budget data reported
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15:04 EDTWeek of 12/20 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:04 EDTWeek of 12/19 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows again
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14:10 EDTU.S. budget preview:
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14:10 EDTTreasury posted a $56.8 B deficit in November
Treasury posted a $56.8 B deficit in November, much improved versus the $135.2 B red ink a year ago, reflecting the ongoing improvement in the budget. Receipts rose 4.9% y/y, while spending declined 21.9% y/y. For the two months of fiscal 2015, the deficit totals $178.5 B, versus a $225.8 B shortfall for the same period last year.
14:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some profit taking
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13:37 EDTProShares Ultra DJ-UBS volatility elevated as WTI oil trades below $61
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil overall option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement.
13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY held the 118.25 level
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held fast
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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12:35 EDTToday's U.S. QSS service sector data
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11:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility is back on the rise
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11:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is dwindling to nothing
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: and now some bearish positioning
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10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD popped to intra day highs of 1.1492
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10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to new trend lows
Oil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to new trend lows of $61.54 from $62.00 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 1.5 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.5 M bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 2.0 M bbls actually rose 8.2 M bbls, while distillate stocks were up 5.6 M bbls, versus expectations for a 0.5 M bbl rise. Refinery usage rose to 95.4% from 93.4%.
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of December 5
Crude oil inventories 1.45M build vs. consensus of 2.7M draw. Gasoline inventories 8.2M build vs. consensus of 2.55M build. Distillates 5.58M build vs. consensus of 1.55M build.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields were quickly capped
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10:00 EDTTreasury's 10-year auction outlook:
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call buying on bonds
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09:39 EDTWeak oil prices followed by lower open for equities
Stock futures weakened slightly during the pre-market trading session, leading to a moderately lower open for the broader market. Crude oil prices continue to drop, with WTI crude down another 2.5% in early trading this morning, raising concerns over a global growth slowdown. Investors will be watching the weekly Department of Energy inventory report due out at 10:30 am ET to see how it impacts energy prices. In early trading, the Dow is down 75 points, the Nasdaq is down 6 points and the S&P is down 7 points.
09:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has posted fresh five-year lows
Oil Action: NYMEX crude has posted fresh five-year lows of $61.96, with the next downside target seen at the August 3, 2009 weekly low of $60.74. Reports than Iran has said oil prices could drop to $40 should OPEC discord continue has been a factor in this morning's sell-off.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some put positioning
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted modest gains overnight
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08:40 EDTThe FDA to hold a public workshop
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities have turned lower
U.S. equities have turned lower after a mixed overnight session that saw a large 2.9% snap-back gain in the Shanghai Comp, paired with a 2.25% slump in Japan's N-225 and a 0.4% rebound in the Euro Stoxx 50. Yesterday worries about China bond collateral restrictions and Greek politics dented global stocks in particular. Though inflation in China hit a 5-year low, markets there hoped that this would result in more PBoC stimulus. U.S. MBA mortgage market data rebounded the week after the Thanksgiving break. That's left the Dow 35-points lower, the S&P 4-points lower and NASDAQ off 4-points in pre-open trade. Energy sector stocks have resumed their descent with another $2 drop in WTI crude to the $62.50 bbl area, while airline shares have been bid up in anticipation of improved profitability. Home builder Toll Brothers gained after earnings results, while Costco rallied 1% after improved profitability as well. Yum Brands lowered guidance, however, due to weak China sales.
08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $62.50
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08:13 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a seminar
Global Macro Year Ahead Seminar 2014 is being held in Sao Paulo, Brazil on December 10.
08:11 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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08:11 EDTPacific Crest to hold a bus tour
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped slightly overnight
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped slightly overnight, in tandem with losses in European sovereigns as some of the flight to safety trades dissipate. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.227% after hitting 2.19% yesterday. The German yield moved up to 0.69% after making another fresh record low at 0.67%. China's Shanghai rebounded 2.9% after its worst drubbing in over 5 years yesterday, while European bourses are correcting higher too, in spite of ongoing worries over Greece's political situation. Wall Street is little changed. There wasn't much economic news overnight. China's CPI slowed to 1.4% y/y in November from 1.6% y/y. Japan's business outlook survey eroded slightly. The U.S. calendar is light today with just the $21 B 10-year reopening and the November Treasury budget. The MBA reported mortgage applications rebounded 7.3% in the week ended December 5. to erase the prior week's 7.3% drop.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 7.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 7.3% in data released earlier, while the purchase index rose 1.3% and the refinancing index climbed 13.2% for the week ended December 5. Mortgage rates actually backed up last week; with the 30-year fixed rate 3 basis points higher to 4.11%, though they remain historically low thanks to concerns about global growth. The firmer tone to the mortgage market, therefore, could have been a little pent up demand following the long Thanksgiving weekend break. With even Fed doves contemplating the launch of Fed tightening in 2015 that would seem a foregone conclusion, though global forces continue to conspire against any aggressive moves from the Fed, however much they want to begin to normalize policy. For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:19 EDTThe FDIC Advisory Committee on Systemic Resolution holds a meeting
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07:14 EDTFutures suggest quiet open
Stock futures are trading near fair value as world markets settled down overnight. Yesterday’s early weakness came after overseas markets declined on concerns over global growth. The recovery in the U.S. markets yesterday afternoon has given investors hope that a late year rally is still in the cards. The lone major economic report scheduled to be released today is the weekly Department of Energy Inventory data.
07:05 EDTFX Update: USD pairings traded within Tuesday
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 10
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05:54 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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02:45 EDTFX Update: The main currency pairings held within Tue ranges
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01:40 EDTJapan consumer confidence dropped 1.2 points to 37.7 in November
Japan consumer confidence dropped 1.2 points to 37.7 in November, worse than expected, from 38.9 in October. It's a third straight monthly decline. All the sub-indexes declined, with the employment component sliding 1.9 points and overall livelihood falling 1.5 points. Income growth dipped 0.4 ticks, while the willingness to purchase durable goods fell 1.1 points. The data will add to investor angst and risk-off trades, and indeed, the Nikkei is sharply lower with a better than 2% loss, though off its lows.
December 9, 2014
21:55 EDTJapan domestic CGPI fell 0.2% in November
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21:40 EDTChina CPI fell 0.2% in November
China CPI fell 0.2% in November and rose 1.4% from year-ago levels (a 5-year low), below expectations of unchanged and +1.6% respectively. Food CPI rose 2.3%, while non-food CPI gained 1.0%, compared to a year ago. Likewise, PPI sank 0.5% in November and fell 2.7% from year ago levels, below median forecasts of -2.4%. This points to a continued slowdown in the region and regulators have meanwhile reportedly been checking with brokers about any impact on their busines from Tuesday's big stock market slump - the Shanghai Comp has added another 0.4% loss to its hefty 5.4% reversal.
17:27 EDTGundlach says some signs that all is not 'copestetic' in world economy
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17:16 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:16 EDTWeek of 12/20 Redbook to be released at 08:55
17:16 EDTWeek of 12/20 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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17:09 EDTGundlach sees no need to own TIPS with low inflation outlook
16:49 EDTGundlach says 10-year yield could fall to 1% if oil falls to $40 per barrel
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16:45 EDTDoubleline's Gundlach says junk bond valuations more attractive
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16:38 EDTDoubleline's Gundlach says Fed want to raise interest rates
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:29 EDTDoubleline's Gundlach says 10-Year yield could fall to 1%, Reuters says
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14:35 EDTU.S. equities have recouped the bulk of their losses
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $25 B 3-year note sale was ok
Treasury's $25 B 3-year note sale was ok and results were generally a little above average. The note priced well, stopping through at 1.066% versus 1.070% at the bid deadline, and compares to November's 0.998% stop. This is the cheapest award rate in over 3 years. Bids totaled nearly $81.0 B for a 3.24 cover, slightly better than last month's 3.18, but a little below the 3.32 average. Indirect bidders were awarded a solid 42.2% compared to 37.8% and the 33.4% average. That's also a 3-year high. Direct bidders took 10.1%, down from the 15.2% previously, while primary dealers were awarded 47.7% versus the prior 47.0%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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12:45 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview:
Treasury 3-year auction preview: pros and cons are relatively balanced suggesting the auction should go ok, but results are not likely to be above average. The pricing could be sloppy. The wi trades at 1.070%, some 3 bps richer on the day, but it's considerably cheaper than the 0.97% on Friday. In fact a stop here would be the cheapest in over 3 years. However that may not be sufficient to offset Fed fears as the note is expected to generally underperform if the FOMC goes ahead with its rate normalization next year. The advent of the FOMC meeting next week with a potential shift if forward guidance language may leave prospective buyers sidelined. On the other hand, shorts may use the auction to cover. The JPM Treasury client survey showed a big rise in short positions. There could be some profit taking on curve flattening trades as well, and some buying ahead of year-end too. And on a relative basis, the notes look very attractive to overseas investors, especially where German and Japanese note yields are negative. November auction results were lackluster with a 0.998% award rate and a below average 3.18 cover, but an ok 37.8% indirect bid.
12:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has pulled back from the $64 region
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11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were ok
Treasury's bill auctions were ok, though demand wasn't as strong as one might have assumed given the risk aversion trade today. The $50 B 4-week bill sold at 0.04%, just through the 0.035% at the bid deadline. There were nearly $175.9 B in bids for a 3.52 cover, down from last week's 3.75%. Indirect bidders took 22.1%, less than the prior 31.0% but in line with the 21.4% average. The $25 B 52-week bill stopped at 0.21%, also through the 0.205% at the deadline. Bids totaled $82.8 B for a 3.44 cover, also less than last month's 3.59 and the 4.28 average. Indirect bidders accepted 14.8%, about half of November's 28.6% and well off the 33.2% average.
11:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavier put selling
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has shot back over 118.80
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10:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is thinning fast
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10:35 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report beat estimates
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10:25 EDTThe dollar
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: risk aversion trumped wholesale trade data
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10:20 EDTU.S. JOLTS: job openings increased 149k to 4,834k in October
U.S. JOLTS: job openings increased 149k to 4,834k in October, rebounding from the 168k drop in September to a 4,685k level (revised from 4,735k). The rate edged up to 3.3% from 3.2. Hirings slipped 20k to 5,055k following September's 333k surge to 5,075k (revised from 5,026k), with the rate holding at 3.6%. Quitters fell 15k to 2,720k after jumping 225k in Septmber to 2,753k. The rate dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. It was at 1.8% a year ago. The small decline in the quit rate will be taken with a grain of salt considering the September increase and given the strength seen in the November nonfarm payroll report.
10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales increased 0.2% in October with inventories up 0.4%
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: a "massive" trade
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09:56 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:50 EDTU.S. wholesale sales preview:
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09:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted new five-year highs
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09:35 EDTMarket follows China lower, tumbles at open
Stock futures continued to tumble during the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. The early weakness is being attributed to the downward pressure in crude oil prices and the sell-off in China after its central bank tightened lending standards. The Nasdaq is the early laggard, falling more than 1%, but the Dow and S&P are also down by nearly 1% in the early going. The Dow is down 156 points, the Nasdaq is down 53 points and the S&P is down 21 points.
09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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09:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded up to $64.06 highs,
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded up to $64.06 highs, after posting trend lows of $62.23 overnight. The contract is back under $63.00 in early N.Y. trade however, as China growth concerns weigh on commodity and equity prices. The head of Kuwait's national oil company said Monday it will be markets, not OPEC that determines oil's price, helped the steep sell-off seen yesterday. Sources however, say the market has not reached its capitulation point yet, and look for a move under $60/bbl in the near term before prices stabilize.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are on the defensive again
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08:20 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar eased further overnight
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08:01 EDTFederal Reserve Board of Governors to hold an open meeting
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index fell 1.5%
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07:57 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs to hold a hearing
The Housing, Transportation and Community Development Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "“Inequality, Opportunity, and the Housing Market" with Mabel Guzman of the National Association of Realtors on December 9 at 11 am. Webcast Link
07:52 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold a meeting
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains overnight
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07:49 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
Cybersecurity 2015: Beyond the Breach discusses what's ahead for government affairs, security experts, academia and policy makers in 2015 and is being held in Washington, D.C. on December 9 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTWhat would "patience" mean from the Fed?
What would "patience" mean from the Fed? According to WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, the Fed could swap "considerable time" out for "patience" before moving rates. By past use of this phrase this could mean 2-3 meetings before it swaps "patience" for "measured pace" of rate hikes. As such, "It seems likely that is how officials would use the term this time. As long as patience is in the statement, it won’t raise rates for two meetings. The far more essential question is how long patience will stay in the statement. In 2004 it stayed in the statement for two meetings, but there is no guarantee it won’t stay longer this time around, or shorter if the U.S. economy goes gangbusters. If things go as officials like New York Fed President William Dudley expect and the Fed moves in June, patience would stay in the statement for three meetings this time. Fed officials will surely say the answer to that question ultimately depends on the how the economy unfolds in the months ahead, and more specifically how it progresses toward its goals of full employment and 2% inflation."
07:42 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:38 EDTBarclays to hold a forum
European Retail Forum is being held in London, England on December 9.
07:38 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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07:35 EDTFX Update: The dollar remained on a generally softer footing
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07:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar remained on a generally softer footing
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07:25 EDTCowen to hold a conference
3rd Annual MedTools and Services Unlocked Conference is being held in New York on December 9.
07:23 EDTChina and oil weigh on market
U.S. equity futures are dropping this morning, as the weakness in the oil and Chinese markets weigh on investor sentiment. China’s Shanghai market sank 5.3%, its biggest one day fall since August 2009. Energy also remains under pressure as crude oil prices are now below $64 a barrel and have tumbled more than 40% since July. Investors will receive little help from macro economic news, as the only piece of economic data scheduled to be released today is wholesale Inventories, which is due out at 10:00 am ET.
06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 9
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02:30 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY has extended its correction
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December 8, 2014
20:40 EDTJapan ministers were loquacious as usual
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17:38 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:38 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:12 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:30 EDTTreasury Action: the $25 B 3-year auction highlights Tuesday's calendar
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:25 EDTMore from Fed's Lockhart: low oil prices could hurt
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12:50 EDTFed dove Lockhart: low inflation is a sign
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12:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: risk is the FOMC drops "considerable time"
Fed Policy Outlook: risk is the FOMC drops "considerable time" from its policy statement next week, especially after the broad-based strength registered in the November employment release, which was also supported by the LMCI. Recent Fedspeak, and especially comments from the usually more dovishly inclined policymakers, have suggested they could support rate lift-off around mid-2015. So working backwards, if Chair Yellen's "6-month" slip of the tongue at the March press conference was a harbinger, then the FOMC should be looking to remove that statement ASAP. The timing is right for this action since there will be a press conference where Yellen can more fully explain the action. However, it may be tough for the Fed to hike rates as soon as June if global economic weakness tempers U.S. growth and if there's further weakening in price pressures.
12:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more trade liquidation
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $50 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD remains under Friday's 1.1476 highs
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11:25 EDTTreasury announced a $50 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:21 EDTFederal Reserve Board of Governors to hold an open meeting
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11:10 EDTU.S. equities are above opening lows
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11:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has made new trend lows
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 121 handle
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10:20 EDTU.S. LMCI fell 1 point to 2.9 in November
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large risk reversal
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09:45 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Face Price and Weather Headwinds:
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09:40 EDTFed's LMCI preview:
Fed's LMCI preview: the Labor Market Conditions Index should improve in November given the plethora of good news from most of the recent jobs reports, especially last Friday's from the BLS. This is a new release from the Fed and is constructed using 19 other, already released jobs data, so it doesn't offer any new insights. Additionally, the October FOMC minutes, which first reiterated the policy statement that underutilization of labor resources is diminishing, it also noted that a number of FOMC participants reported underutilization remained. The LMCI rose 4 points in October after an identical increase in September. This is not an important indicator for the markets.
09:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries see a heavy supply calendar this week
Treasury Action: Treasuries see a heavy supply calendar this week which could keep yields biased higher. The debt managers are selling $59 B in coupons, with $25 B in 3-year notes auctioned on Tuesday, $21 B in 19-year notes Wednesday, and $13 B in 30-year bonds Thursday. The wi 3-year rate is at 1.115%, which would be the cheapest stop since April 2011. On the other hand, the wi 10-year is at 2.315%, which would be the richest rate since June 2013. And for the 30-year, the current 2.97% would be one of the lowest rate since May 2013. After the strong November jobs report and the risk the FOMC removes the "considerable time" language from its policy statement next week as it prepares for a rate hike in 2015 could leave many potential buyers sidelined. However, foreign accounts should continue to support the auctions given widening yield differentials. The longer dated notes could be underpinned by flattening trades and subdued inflation.
09:00 EDTSF Fed's Williams reportedly argued for ZIRP
SF Fed's Williams reportedly argued for ZIRP to be maintained to meet the Fed's policy goals, according to a MNI Beckner report circulating. He said that large balance sheets were "factored into the Fed forecast" and that "considerable time" best captures the liftoff (in rates). If so, this is in keeping with Williams dovish profile, though he had been more upbeat on the economy lately.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD held under Friday's 1.1476
FX Action: USD-CAD held under Friday's 1.1476 trend high overnight, peaking at 1.1458 before easing back to 1.1428 lows into the North American open. Canadian housing starts data was close to expectations and had little impact on the markets, and going forward this morning, the commodity backdrop should remain the main driver of the CAD's direction. WTI crude touched $64.09 lows before rebounding over $64.50, weighing slightly on USD-CAD, though a break under $64 should see USD-CAD test Friday's high, with a break there bringing 1.1500 into focus, where barrier options are reported.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are modestly lower to start the week
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08:30 EDTFedspeak will be truncated by the approach of the FOMC
Fedspeak will be truncated by the approach of the FOMC meeting this week, which will curtail much elaboration ahead of that key event. That said, Atlanta Fed dove Lockhart will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Council for Quality Growth at 12:30 ET today. There will also be an open meeting on risk-based capital surcharges for systemically important bank holding companies at 14:40 ET Tuesday.
08:15 EDTCanada housing Permits Preview
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08:05 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude trades at $64.51
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07:58 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar posted trend highs versus the euro, pound, and yen overnight, as disappointing Japan and German data brought USD buyers to center stage. USD-CD remains firm on the latest downdraft in oil prices, with WTI approaching the $64/bbl mark. The U.S. calendar is empty this morning, leaving focus on equities and yields. U.S. futures indicate a moderately lower Wall Street open, while Treasury yields have firmed up a bit.
07:35 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute holds a luncheon discussion
Luncheon discussion with the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee who discuss the Financial Stability Board’s capital requirements, the timing of financial data releases by government agencies, the Federal Reserve Board’s bank concentration rule, and financial reform in the new Congress is being held in Washington, D.C. on December 8 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:33 EDTAtlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Council for Quality Growth's Annual Economic Forecast Meeting being held in Atlanta, Georgia on December 8 at 11:30 am.
07:33 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:31 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
Japan MedTech Forum to be held in Tokyo, Japan on December 8.
07:30 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
Financial Institutions Group CEO Summit is being held in New York on December 8.
07:30 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:29 EDTMarket closing in on milestones
Stock futures are slightly below fair value as investors look for the next catalysts that could push the market above the milestones it is approaching. The Dow is closing in on 18,000, and the Nasdaq is approaching 5,000. Crude oil prices continue to fall, and analysts are arguing whether prices are falling due to oversupply or a global growth slow down. There is little for investors to key in on today, as no major economic data is due to be released.
07:19 EDTKeyBanc to hold a conference
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06:46 EDTJapan says economy contracted more than previously reported in Q3, Reuters says
Japan reported that its economy shrank 1.9% in the third quarter, versus the country's preliminary report of a 1.6% contraction, according to Reuters. Economists had predicted that the country's economy expanded 0.5% in Q3, the news service added. Reference Link
06:40 EDTChina's trade data misses expectations, Reuters says
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06:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to reign supreme
FX Update: The dollar continued to reign supreme, logging fresh trend lows against the yen, euro, Aussie and sterling, among other currencies. The move extends the gains seen following Friday's stellar U.S. jobs report, which supports the idea that the U.S. economy is the only locomotive in town among the major economies. Disappointing Japanese growth data added to this notion, with Q3 GDP revised lower to -0.5% q/q and -1.9% y/y, contrary to expectations for upward revisions. USD-JPY logged a fresh seven-year peak of 121.85 during the Tokyo session, subsequently dipping to the low 1.21s with option related selling seen ahead of barriers at 122.00, along with exporter selling in the late Tokyo session. EUR-USD continued to trade heavily, extending to a new 28-month low at 1.2252 in the wake of the sub-forecast German production data and dovish remarks by ECB's Nowotny.
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 8
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05:51 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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04:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has dipped to the low 1.21s
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03:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to reign supreme
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December 6, 2014
23:51 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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23:51 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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23:51 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
23:51 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
23:51 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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23:51 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:50 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level to be reported at 07:30
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04:04 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 . Current consensus is 89.5
04:04 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
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04:04 EDTBusiness Inventories to be reported at 10:00
October Business Inventories will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
04:04 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
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04:04 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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04:04 EDTRetail Sales to be reported at 08:30
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04:04 EDTTreasury Budget to be reported at 14:00
November Treasury Budget will be reported at 14:00 . Current consensus is $[63.0]B
04:04 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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16:50 EDTJOLTS Job Openings to be reported at 10:00
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December 5, 2014
16:25 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening will be the general trend in Treasuries
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:15 EDTU.S. consumer credit rose another $13.2 B in October
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15:10 EDTTreasury Action: not much reaction to consumer credit
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15:03 EDTConsumer Credit data reported
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14:55 EDTU.S. consumer credit preview:
U.S. consumer credit preview: October consumer credit is expected to increase $16.0 B (median $16.5 B) vs $15.9 B in September. Increases in non-revolving credit are leading the the largest series of gains since 2001. Forecast risk is upward, as increases have averaged $18.9 B per month since last December. preview.
14:27 EDTArgus Research to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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14:16 EDTWells Fargo economists hold an analyst/industry conference call
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13:35 EDTAction Economics Survey results
Action Economics Survey results: the much stronger than expected November employment report has been along time in the making. And while the strength in the report was broad based, it's not likely to accelerate the FOMC's rate lift-off from the 6-month timeframe first imagined by Chair Yellen back in March. And indeed, no one in the Survey projects a hike by March. However, the data will put pressure the FOMC to remove the "considerable time" language at the upcoming December 16, 17 policy meeting. Meanwhile, there's not a lot of key data ahead, with just retail sales and trade prices in the upcoming week. Survey medians indicate a 0.4% pick-up in sales, though the ex-auto component looks more tame at only a 0.1% gain. Import and export prices are expected to reveal further weakness.
13:30 EDTU.S. equities are marginally extending gains
U.S. equities are marginally extending gains as the Dow stretches for 18k and comes within 10-points, with both the S&P and NASDAQ in lockstep about 0.3% higher. Confirmation of a better than expected reading on the economy via the payrolls report has been a 2-edged sword for equity investors as that puts the Fed tightening launch back in play as well. Among the biggest gainers in the Dow have been the financials, with Goldman +2.3% and JPM +2.2%, while Wal-Mart -1.1% is the biggest decliner, along with Cisco -0.5%. Treasury yields are tucked up near highs, while the dollar index rallied 0.75% to 89.46 before stalling. In contrast, gold is near session lows of $1,186.60, down from $1,207.80 pre-payrolls highs.
13:30 EDTU.S. Jobs Report Strong Throughout:
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13:18 EDTS&P downgrades Italy rating to BBB- from BBB; upgrades outlook to stable
13:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude came close enough to its $65 target
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12:40 EDTA Liscio Report on the November payrolls results
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12:20 EDTFor today's U.S. data impact on quarterly forecasts
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11:59 EDTDA Davidison semicap equipment analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Semicap Equipment Analyst Diffely provides a weekly industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on December 8 at 11 am.
11:51 EDTS&P upgrades Ireland to A/A-1-; outlook stable
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11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large bearish block trade
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10:27 EDTMarket opens with moderate gains after big upside jobs surprise
Stock futures bounced around during the pre-market trading session following the release of the better than expected monthly nonfarm payrolls report. The knee-jerk reaction saw the futures move lower, then regroup to close above fair value by the end of the pre-market trading session. The futures action led to a moderately higher open, but the move is subdued given that the report showed the biggest monthly gain in nearly three years. In early trading, the Dow is up 46 points, the Nasdaq is up 13 points and the S&P is up 3 points.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields have consolidated their rise
Treasury Action: yields have consolidated their rise in the wake of the weak factory orders readings, which drizzled on the payrolls parade, though didn't radically alter the upbeat paradigm. The T-note yield peaked over 2.33% earlier from whipsaw lows of 2.25% and has since settled back under 2.30%, though stocks opened higher after pausing to assess the monetary policy landscape. The 2s-10s spread remains narrow, however, near +167 bp as the front-end continues to underperform, while 5s-30s tightened to +129 bp.
10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has reacted to the latest WTI move
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10:10 EDTU.S. factory orders fell 0.7% in October
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10:05 EDTFor the jobs data impact on other November reports
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10:05 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 3% to 12.0
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10:04 EDTFactory Orders data reported
October Factory Orders down -0.7% vs consensus of -0.3% for the month
09:55 EDTMore from Mester: she called the jobs report "strong,"
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09:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is on the move lower
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09:50 EDTU.S. factory orders preview:
U.S. factory orders preview: October factory orders are expected to fall by 0.3% vs -0.4% in September, with inventories growing 0.2% vs 0.3%. Forecast risk is downward, given recent soft durable goods numbers, which revealed a 0.4% gain in orders with sales up 0.1% and inventories up 0.5%. The I/S ratio should tick up to 1.31 from 1.30 last month. report.
09:45 EDTThe 321k U.S. November payroll surge
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy put buying
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities padded overnight gains
U.S. equities padded overnight gains after U.S. payrolls increased in a big 321k lump (biggest gain since January 2012), along with upward back revisions, and the jobless rate held at 5.8%. This was accompanied by a minor narrowing of the trade gap to -$43.4 B. The Dow is 44-points higher, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is up 8-points in pre-open action, but the data could keep investors wary of an earlier than mid-2015 Fed policy normalization launch. This followed on the heels of modest gains in Asia and a big snap back recovery in Europe. Japan's N-225 rose just 0.19%, while the Shanghai Comp rallied another 1.32% and the Euro Stoxx 50 ramped 1.7% higher, though little changed after the payrolls report. Dollar Tree reportedly expects its $8.5 B merger with Family Dollar to close by February and ride sharing App Uber reportedly earned a $41 B valuation following its latest $1.2 B VC funding round. Up next are factory goods orders and consumer credit.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD popped to 1.1443
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08:50 EDTU.S. trade deficit was little changed at $43.4 B in October
U.S. trade deficit was little changed at $43.4 B in October versus September's revised -$43.6 B (was -$43.0 B). Exports rebounded 1.2%, but didn't fully offset the 1.8% September drop. Imports edged up 0.9% after unchanged readings in the prior two months. The real trade balance was also steady at -$50.8 B versus September's -$50.9 B as real exports increased 2.4% with imports up 1.7%. Excluding petroleum, the deficit narrowed slightly to $28.2 B compared to the $29.6 B shortfall previously.
08:45 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 321k in November
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields exploded higher
Treasury Action: yields exploded higher after the surprise ramp higher in nonfarm payrolls, along with upward back revisions, that put the labor sector on a sharper upward trajectory. That sent the T-note yield 7 bp higher from the 2.26% area to test 2.33% briefly, though still below the 2.407% November high for now. Stocks still appear like a deer in the headlights in terms of the Fed tightening outlook, so analysts'll just have to see how this plays out after the knee-jerk swings on yields. Indeed, the curve has flattened as the front-end underperforms. The dollar is of course sharply higher.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar surged higher
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08:39 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level data reported
October International Trade Balance Level at -$43.4B vs consensus of -$41.0B
08:34 EDTFutures move higher following monthly jobs data
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08:30 EDTU.S. November nonfarm payrolls rise 321K, Unemployment rates stays 5.8%
08:20 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. trade preview:
U.S. trade preview: The October trade deficit is expected to taper to -$39.5 B (median -$41.6 B) vs -$43.0 B in September, as the deficit has narrowed since the April recent-high $46 B deficit. Exports in October are expected to grow 0.4% while imports may show a 1.1% decline on the month. Forecast risk is upward, however, as falling oil prices could impact imports. preview.
08:14 EDTFederal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Fisher to speak at conference
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fischer speaks at the International Monetary Fund's 50th Anniversary Conference: Fiscal Affairs, Past & Future is being held in Washington, D.C. on December 5 at 2:45 pm.
08:10 EDTCanada Productivity Preview
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08:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is trading on either side of 1.1400
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady
Oil Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady overnight, ranging between $66.79 and $66.05, and currently at $66.35. The $66 area has provided good support since Thursday, and sources see scope for a quick test of $65 should it give way. Other bearish signals include a Saudi Arabia price cut for its U.S. and Asian customers, along with Iraq/Kurdistan's plans to increase output by up to 300k bpd, and a stronger dollar. All these factors would appear to point to lower oil prices in the near term.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields climbed northward
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields climbed northward, as the market takes a defensive posture into the November nonfarm payroll report. The 10-year rate is 3 bps higher at 2.26%. European bonds have pared earlier gains with the Bund yield at 0.76%. Equities are in the green still underpinned by stimulus hopes. German manufacturing orders beat expectations. Attention is now firmly on the jobs report where analysts're forecasting a 215k increase with a steady unemployment rate. Other data out today, including October trade numbers, factory orders, and consumer credit will take a backseat to jobs. Fedspeak could be of some interest though, with VC Fischer and Mester on tap.
07:45 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester speaks at conference
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:26 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs report
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07:20 EDTFDA Anti-Infective Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:09 EDTSecurity Traders Association of Denver to hold a convention
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for December 5
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05:56 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
05:04 EDTWeek of 12/17 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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05:04 EDTWeek of 12/8 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY traded above 120.30
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03:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains firm
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02:45 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY and EUR-USD remained with Thr's ranges
FX Update: USD-JPY and EUR-USD remained with Thr's ranges while Cable managed to nudge lower to a two-day low of 1.5624. USD-JPY had a slight upside creep, recovering back above 120.00, though the market lacked the muster for a test of yesterday's 120.25 high. Expectations that Abe will win next week's election, which would give yen-negative "Abenomics" policies a fresh mandate, are weighting on the yen. EUR-USD posted a narrow range in the mid-to-upper 1.23s, remaining well off yesterday's post-ECB's high at 1.2456 with the market factoring risk of a strong U.S. payrolls today. ECB boss Draghi failed to give a clear commitment to QE yesterday, but he nonetheless left the door wide open for such a move, and analysts remain bearish of EUR-USD in the bigger picture. AUD-USD settled to a consolidation in the upper 0.83s, holding above yesterday's four-year low at 0.8355.
01:20 EDTMalaysia's trade surplus narrowed to 1.2 B ringgit in October
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