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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 9, 2016
12:25 EDTTreasury Action: uber dove Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative
Treasury Action: uber dove Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative on rates. It would be a "daring, but appropriate" move that would speed up the attainment of a 2% inflation rate, he said. He broached that idea back in October. While the Fed could discuss negative rates at its March meeting, especially after the BoJ's surprise move, analysts suspect adopting such a policy would be a very last-ditch effort to address a deep contraction in the economy. At this point analysts'd view any public comments more as lip-service to indicate there are more tools in the stimulus bag that could be used. However, it's not obvious to us that negative rates would be a solution, especially as ZIRP hasn't had much impact. Analysts also believe negative rates could be too detrimental to the money markets, forcing MMMFs to operate with a loss, reduce fees, charge customers, or close. It could also cause problems with Treasury auctions (Treasury is prohibited from selling bills above par). Unintended consequences of negative rates (especially breaking the buck), including crimping liquidity during an adjustment period, probably aren't worth the benefits.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $55 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5%
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5% from 2.2% previously thanks to the wholesale trade report, actually above the median Blue Chip economist forecast of 2.3% for a change: "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on February 9, up from 2.2 percent on February 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the first-quarter change in private inventory investment in 2009 dollars increased from -$6 billion to $4 billion." In contrast, at Action analysts see downside risk from our 1.8% forecast for Q1 growth. for more.
11:10 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility nudged back up 5.3% to 27.38
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10:25 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates
The U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. Analysts still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast. The Q4 GDP growth hit reflects a $6 B subtraction from wholesale inventories that accompanies a $6 B hit for factory inventories and an $8 B downward bump in construction, but a partially offsetting $11 B boost in net exports. Our 1.8% Q1 GDP growth estimate assumes a $22 B inventory subtraction that leaves a $34 B accumulation rate, following a $28.9 (was $16.9) B Q4 subtraction and a larger $28.0 B hit in Q3 -- as the inventory overbuild through Q2 of 2015 unwinds to a sustainable rate of climb by Q1. Analysts expect a 0.1% December business inventory rise that follows a 0.2% drop in November. Today's 0.1% drop for wholesale inventories accompanies a 0.2% rise for factories and an assumed 0.3% rise for retailers. The overall business I/S ratio should rise to a 1.39 expansion-high in December from a 1.38 prior expansion-high in October and November.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar shrugged off the in-line dip in wholesale sales data, though had been on the rise versus the yen in particular, as Wall Street turned opening losses into gains. USD-JPY is up better than 100 points from N.Y. session lows of 114.32, while EUR-USD has traded back into 1.1265, after touching 1.1300 earlier.
10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%
U.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%. November's 1.0% drop in sales was revised lower to -1.3%. The 0.3% slip in November inventories was bumped down to -0.4%. Sales weakness was concentrated in petroleum (-4.5%) and groceries (-1.1%). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.32, holding at the cycle high, and is the highest since mid 2009. Though not surprising, the weaker than expected data are disappointing and could weigh further on GDP forecasts.
10:03 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
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10:01 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
December Wholesale Trade Inventories down -0.1% vs consensus of -0.1% for the month
10:00 EDTHedge fund liquidation of tech momentum winners,
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS breakevens continue to tumble
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09:53 EDTMarket drops at opening bell, recovering in early trading
Stock futures fell as oil prices weakened during the pre-market trading session. The futures action led to another triple digit decline for the Dow, while the S&P fell to its lowest level since April 2014. Oil prices struggle to stay above $30 per barrel while gold prices are flat but traded above $1,200 an ounce for the first time since June of last year. The market is recovering in early trading, however, and the averages have regained the flat line. In early trading, the Dow is down 8 points, the Nasdaq is up 12 points and the S&P is roughly flat.
09:10 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook: Treasury has a $24 B in 3-year note
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08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 2/6 Redbook Store Sales up 0.6% for the year
08:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures probed higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.3940
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08:30 EDTU.S. equities are back in the woodshed
U.S. equities are back in the woodshed after Asia took over from Europe as the market whipping boy with a 5.4% plunge in Japan's N-225 after the yen surged to the low 114s and the 10-year JGB went negative. Without China to flog, Japan was the next best proxy for selling, though crude oil rebounded back above $30 bbl despite some bearish supply/price calls by the IEA. Deutsche Bank made the unusual move of reassuring investors that it has sufficient funds and liquidity to services its riskier debt, despite a surge in its CDS and its shares falling another 1% for a total of -10% since Monday. European shares gave up initial gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reversing 2.0% lower and the German DAX is -1.5%, with the periphery -2.7%. The yen is off its best levels, though still under 115.00, while risk proxy gold has pulled back to the $1,195 area. The Dow is 141-points lower, S&P reclined 17-points and NASDAQ faltered 38-points. Coca-Cola fell after reporting a decline in sales, while Regeneron sank 4.5% after slower sales. Deja vu all over again.
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