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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News Breaks
January 2, 2013
14:45 EDTMoody's: 'Cliff' deal not basis for meaningful improvement in U.S. debt ratios
Moody's Investors Service said that the fiscal package passed by both houses of Congress yesterday is a further step in clarifying the medium-term deficit and debt trajectory of the federal government. It does not, however, provide a basis for a meaningful improvement in the government's debt ratios over the medium term. The rating agency expects that further fiscal measures are likely to be taken in coming months that would result in lower future budget deficits, which are necessary if the negative outlook on the government's bond rating is to be returned to stable. On the other hand, lack of further deficit reduction measures could affect the rating negatively. Notably, yesterday's package does not address the federal government's statutory debt limit, which was reached on December 31. The need to raise the debt limit may affect the outcome of future budget negotiations. Moody's said the macroeconomic effects of the package are positive, since it averts the recession that would likely have occurred had personal income taxes gone up for all income levels. However, the increase in the Social Security payroll tax from 4.2% to 6.2% of income that became effective on January 1 will likely be a constraint on growth in coming quarters. Furthermore, expenditure cuts that may be decided in coming months could also affect the rate of GDP growth in the near term. Overall, therefore, the recent package mitigates part of the fiscal drag on the economy associated with the fiscal cliff but does not eliminate it. Moody's added that it believes that the debt limit will eventually be raised and that the risk of default on Treasury bonds is extremely low, this confluence of events adds uncertainty to the outcome of negotiations. However, the spending measures that result from the negotiations will form part of the medium-term outlook for the budget deficit. Moody's will need to consider these measures in assessing the rating outlook. Further revenue measures may also form part of the negotiations. The debt trajectory resulting from this process is likely to determine whether the Aaa rating is returned to a stable outlook or downgraded to Aa1, as Moody's previously stated.
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April 2, 2014
08:35 EDTThe 191k March ADP rise
The 191k March ADP rise sits only a tad below our estimate of a 205k March private payroll rise with a 200k overall payroll gain, following a February ADP boost to a 178k (was 139k) gain that reversed the gap to the 162k BLS private payroll increase. The ADP data are less subject to a March bounce from a weather-depressed February level than the BLS data, so today's small undershoot may actually suggest upside BLS payroll risk. Workers are included in the ADP payroll data even if they miss work due to bad weather, while in the BLS survey, workers are only counted as working if they worked during the BLS survey period. Also, the "as reported" ADP figures have run 26k/month weaker than private payrolls over the seventeen months since the October 2012 methodology change by Moody's. Note that the component mix of ADP gains almost exactly tracked the composition of our payroll estimate, with gains of 28k for goods employment, 20 for construction, 5k for factories and 164k for services. For a discussion of the risks with Friday's U.S. jobs report, see Monday's commentary, edited to incorporate data released since then.
08:32 EDTHMG Strategy to hold a summit
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08:30 EDTFutures drift higher following ADP employment report
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08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields spiked higher on ADP
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08:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved modestly higher
FX Action: The dollar moved modestly higher after the slightly better ADP jobs print, taking EUR-USD to intra day lows near 1.3779 from 1.3795, and USD-JPY up to 103.81 from under 103.70. Equity futures are fractionally higher, while Treasury yields edged up a touch.
08:25 EDTU.S. ADP private payrolls increased 191k in March
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08:15 EDTADP Employment Report employment data reported
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08:05 EDTU.S. ADP employment survey preview:
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07:50 EDTFed funds opened at 0.07%
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07:50 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.2%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended declines
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07:32 EDTFutures in positive territory ahead of jobs data
U.S. equity futures are slightly higher as the market looks to extend its most recent run. Investors will be watching the ADP Employment Change report which is scheduled to be released at 8:15 am ET. Analysts are predicting that the report will show that 195,000 jobs were added in March. Investors use the report to estimate the results of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Other numbers scheduled to be released today include the ISM data for the New York region, factory orders from February, and the weekly Department of Energy Inventory data.
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
Week of 3/28 MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index down -3.0% for the week
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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07:00 EDTEuropean FX Update
European FX Update: Trade has been characterized by a EUR dip following an MNI report of an ECB source, along with NATO warning that Russia remains a threat to the Ukraine. The JPY had also posted fresh lows against the USD and most other currencies during the Tokyo session before subsequently steadying during the European morning. EUR-USD fell to an intraday low of 1.3785, down from the a one-week high that was seen earlier at 1.3820. USD-JPY logged a high of 103.94, which is the loftiest level seen since Jan-24, before drifting to the 103.70 area. EUR-JPY made a three-week peak of 143.48 in Asia before dipping back to the 143.00 area amid the general euro pullback. Elsewhere, AUD-USD flat-lined in the low-to-mid 0.92s, and USD-CAD softened back toward the 1.1000 level. There was little sign of market concern about the NATO warning, with EUR-CHF having drifted higher and stock markets holding firm in Europe.
06:30 EDTVirtu Financial delaying IPO, sources say, Bloomberg reports
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 2
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05:44 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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02:10 EDTFX Action: The JPY made fresh lows
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