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News Breaks
January 2, 2013
14:45 EDTMoody's: 'Cliff' deal not basis for meaningful improvement in U.S. debt ratios
Moody's Investors Service said that the fiscal package passed by both houses of Congress yesterday is a further step in clarifying the medium-term deficit and debt trajectory of the federal government. It does not, however, provide a basis for a meaningful improvement in the government's debt ratios over the medium term. The rating agency expects that further fiscal measures are likely to be taken in coming months that would result in lower future budget deficits, which are necessary if the negative outlook on the government's bond rating is to be returned to stable. On the other hand, lack of further deficit reduction measures could affect the rating negatively. Notably, yesterday's package does not address the federal government's statutory debt limit, which was reached on December 31. The need to raise the debt limit may affect the outcome of future budget negotiations. Moody's said the macroeconomic effects of the package are positive, since it averts the recession that would likely have occurred had personal income taxes gone up for all income levels. However, the increase in the Social Security payroll tax from 4.2% to 6.2% of income that became effective on January 1 will likely be a constraint on growth in coming quarters. Furthermore, expenditure cuts that may be decided in coming months could also affect the rate of GDP growth in the near term. Overall, therefore, the recent package mitigates part of the fiscal drag on the economy associated with the fiscal cliff but does not eliminate it. Moody's added that it believes that the debt limit will eventually be raised and that the risk of default on Treasury bonds is extremely low, this confluence of events adds uncertainty to the outcome of negotiations. However, the spending measures that result from the negotiations will form part of the medium-term outlook for the budget deficit. Moody's will need to consider these measures in assessing the rating outlook. Further revenue measures may also form part of the negotiations. The debt trajectory resulting from this process is likely to determine whether the Aaa rating is returned to a stable outlook or downgraded to Aa1, as Moody's previously stated.
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June 23, 2015
08:33 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06 into the N.Y. open, after ranging between $59.84 and $60.50 overnight. Improving European data has helped the demand outlook for oil, though this morning's firmer dollar, and the beginnings of what could be a U.S. gasoline glut have offset. RBOB gasoline futures have fallen nearly 8% over the past week, from nearly eight-month highs over $2.1850, to this morning's lows of $2.0140. Natural gas is slightly higher, trading at $2.76/M BTU, but still close to two-week lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:05 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 1.6% in the week ended June 20
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08:01 EDTSenate Environmental Committee to hold a hearing
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08:00 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
Meredith Jones, MJ Alternative Investment Research, discusses her book, "Women of the Street: Why Female Money Managers Generate Higher Returns (And How You Can Too) in a meeting being held in Chicago on June 23 at 12:30 pm.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD is down eyeing the 1.1200 level as N.Y. trade gets underway, off nearly 150 points from Monday's close. Better EU PMI data and prospects for a Greek deal this week have done the euro no favors, perhaps as regional yields have moved lower, on unwinding of safe-haven plays. Elsewhere, USD-JPY has maintained a narrow range, though at slightly higher levels, as USD-CAD idles near 1.2350. The U.S. calendar reveals the May durables report at 8:30 EDT, June Markit flash PMI at 9:45 EDT, and May new home sales and the June Richmond Fed index, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:49 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Measuring the True Cost of Regulations: Lessons from Great Britain and Canada on Implementing Regulatory Reforms" on June 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:48 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
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07:37 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The euro underperformed
FX Update: The euro underperformed as Eurozone yields dropped, and despite above-forecast Euroznoe PMI data and a growing likelihood of Greece resolution with its creditors. EUR-USD clocked a fresh six-day low at 1.1224 and the euro also posted new lows against the yen, sterling and Aussie dollar, among other currencies. European stocks gained sharply, with Greece's ASE leading the way with over a 4% gain, and Eurozone peripheral yield spreads relative to Bunds narrowed sharply. The Greek 10-year yield fell to 10.61%, extending a sharp drop from 12.5%-plus levels that were seen last week.
07:01 EDTFutures higher as market looks to extend rally
Stock futures are suggesting a positive open as the market looks to extend its gains from yesterday. Investors remain watchful on the Greek debt situation as the country was given 48 hours to reach a deal, potentially ending a five month standoff over aid that risks splitting the euro. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the durable goods report, house price index, and new home sales report for clues on our own economy.
06:07 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 23
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06:01 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is up across the board
FX Update: The dollar is up across the board after a EUR-USD led move with good news on the Greek front transferring as a sell-on-the-fact style response in Asia, although a deal there is no deal yet. EUR-USD dove to a six-day low of 1.1254 after closing in New York yesterday at 1.1338-40. Stops were triggered through 1.1300-10. EUR-JPY is also fell, though the low-so-far is a few pips above yesterday's 139.22 low. USD-JPY, meanwhile, lifted to six-day highs above 123.75, near its 20-day moving average at 123.80. AUD-USD hit a six-day low at 0.7694, finding some support following a firmer than expected flash Markit PMI out of China. The dollar also advanced against sterling and most other currencies. Focus today will remain on Greece, and incoming PMI data out of Europe and the U.S.
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