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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 24, 2014
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:24 EDTCFA Society of Baltimore to hold a luncheon meeting
Luncheon Meeting where Tom Brakke, CFA speaks on the topic, Creativity in the Investment Process and discusses new ways about investing is being held in Baltimore, Maryland on April 24 at 12 pm.
07:20 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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07:17 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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07:16 EDTCapital Link to hold a forum
13th Annual Closed-End Funds & GLobal ETFs Forum is being held in New York on April 24.
07:15 EDTFDA Neurological Devices Panel to hold a meeting
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 24
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05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade, May 16, 2014
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The NZD was the sole mover
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02:01 EDTMarch Consumer Credit to be released at 15:00
April 23, 2014
16:13 EDTWeek of 5/2 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
16:13 EDT Productivity and Costs to be released at 08:30
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15:30 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: March durable goods data will be released on Thursday and analysts expect headline orders to increase 3.0% (median 1.9%) with shipments up 2.0% and inventories up 0.7% for the month. The report should benefit from a lift in the transport component as Boeing orders for the month jumped to 163 from 74 last month.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:30 EDTU.S. earnings reports will be hot and heavy Thursday
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14:04 EDTAverages linger in negative territory
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13:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: corporate have had no difficulty competing
U.S. corporate bond update: corporate have had no difficulty competing with the government for investor cash. IADB sold $2 B in 3-year notes at mid-swaps -3 bps. Morgan Stanley launched a $3 B 10-year deal at +130 bps. Woori Bank is offering $1 B in 10-year notes. KFW sold a $1 B 18-month FRN. CNOOC Nexen Finance has a 3-part offering including 3-, 10- and 30-year paper. Mubadala sold $750 M in 8-year notes at +120 bps. PNC launched a $750 M 10-year at +125 bps. Kommunalbanken is selling $500 M in 5-year FRNs.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury 5-year auction results were rather average
Treasury 5-year auction results were rather average. The auction tailed slightly to 1.732% versus 1.725% at the bid deadline. It's the highest award rate since May 2011. Bids totaled $97.5 for a 2.79 cover, below the 2.99 in March and 2.98 in February, but better than the 2.65 average over the past 12 auctions. Indirect bidders took 44.9% versus 50.9% last month and a 45.6% average. Direct bidders were awarded 18.6% compared to 23.1% previously, and primary dealers were awarded 36.5% versus 25.9% previously.
13:10 EDTGoldman reportedly cut its U.S. Q1 GDP forecast to 1.4%
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12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview:
Treasury 5-year auction preview: the auction should go well, but there are some doubters among our contacts given various pros and cons for the sale. Supports include the cheapness in the note, both outright and on the curve. The wi trades at 1.725%, which could be the highest stop since May 2011. Versus the 30-year, the spread has narrowed to 178 bps amid 5-year underperformance from 207 bps just before the March 20 FOMC. On the other hand, there's been no concession today and that could hurt at the margin. The Fed is expected to keep rates low for a long time, but QE asset purchases should continue to be trimmed. While the most recent two auctions produced strong results, the historical trend is weak. Also, the weaker dollar could support solid overseas demand. Additionally, there's speculation the debt managers will start cutting auction volumes given the improvement in the budget outlook. The March auction saw A+ results, stopping at 1.715% and garnering a 2.99 cover (2.65 average) and a 50.9% indirect bid (45.6% average). Direct bidders took 23.1% versus 9.2%, previously, while primary dealers took 25.9%.
12:39 EDTWeek of 5/2 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady
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11:55 EDTU.S. equities extended their slide
U.S. equities extended their slide led by the tech sector again ahead of key tech earnings after the close from Apple, Facebook, etc., following the disappointing housing sector report. NASDAQ is about 0.5% lower, while the blue chips are sporting losses of about half of that and European share losses have deepened with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.7%. USD-JPY is confirming the slide with a dip to 102.15 session lows, with one wag noticing that this coincided with Justin Bieber's visit to the Japan war shrine, which ticked off a billion of his fans. Earlier Russia confirmed military drills in the southwest Rostov region across the border from the Ukraine, yet gold is holding above session lows of $1,281.30.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.284 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.284 B in notes dated from May 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered $9.99 B. The buyback is adding support to the gains in Treasuries, though the 5-year sector is outperforming, even with the advent of the 5-year auction this afternoon. The benchmark 7-year yield is down 2.5 bps to 2.267%, while the 10-year has fallen 2 bps to 2.69%.
11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures perked up
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10:40 EDTThe 14.5% March U.S. new home sales plunge
The 14.5% March U.S. new home sales plunge to an anemic 384k rate was mitigated only slightly by upward prior bumps to rates of 449k (was 440k) in February and 470k (was 455k) in January that left a surprisingly weak report overall, though the median price soared to a $290,000 all-time high. Sales succeeded in undershooting already-low expectations in the face of bad weather, harsh financing conditions, and restrained confidence, and the new home sales shortfall fueled a inventory pop to a 193k three-year high. The shift in sales toward higher priced homes alongside remarkable ongoing weakness in the weekly MBA purchase index, which fell 2.6% in the most recent week, reinforces the view that the housing market remains in disrepair for all but cash purchasers -- who tend to be wealthy buyers with sellable assets or access to nonmortgage credit. Analysts expect a climb in the new home sales rate to a restrained 450k in Q2, from rates of 434k in Q1, 446k (was 447k) in Q4, and 388k in Q3. Sales should presumably soon climb above the 458k cycle-high from January of 2013, though improvement is proving painfully slow.
10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of April 18
Crude oil inventories 3.5M build vs. consensus of 3.0M build. Gasoline inventories 274K draw vs. consensus of 1.65M draw. Distillates 597K build vs. consensus of 300K draw.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields tripped lower
Treasury Action: yields tripped lower following the big miss in Mar new home sales, which surprised even the most jaded housing sector analysts. It was even hard to pin the dive on the vortex effects, with regional sales down double digits everywhere but the northeast. Affordability remains an issue with a record median sales price of $290k up 12.6% from a year-ago. The T-note yield slipped back below 2.70% in a relatively shallow move considering the scale of the data miss, with some lingering skepticism about the cause or wariness of 5-year supply just ahead. Yet stocks and the dollar are having no trouble taking the weak data a face value.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar suffered some
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales dropped 14.5% to 384k in March
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10:01 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI was little changed at 55.4 in April
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09:55 EDTFX Action: The FX market shrugged off
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09:40 EDTMarket has quiet, slightly lower open
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09:35 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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09:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC announcement is a week away
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC announcement is a week away and no major policy changes are expected. Another $10 B cut in QE asset purchases to $45 B is widely expected, along with an steady rate stance. That outlook has been supported by the WSJ's Hilsenrath, who noted in an article yesterday that the "Fed Looks to Stick to Policy Path." After policymakers scrapped the Evans Rule 6.5% unemployment rate threshold at last month's meeting, analysts don't expect any major tweaks to forward guidance. Probably the most interest in the policy statement will be what's said about inflation as the low rate remains a major frustration and perhaps an increasing concern according to some recent Fedspeak. Meanwhile, look for a little more optimism on growth after the slowing over the turn of the year amid adverse weather conditions. However, some of the most recent data suggest slowing in the housing market, which could be do to financial constraints.
08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied 20 points
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08:25 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is a touch softer
FX Action: USD-CAD is a touch softer in early North American dealings, slipping under 1.1020 from London highs of 1.1047. Bids are reportedly in place at 1.1000, with offers at 1.1050, which may keep the pairing contained for now. Canadian retail sales data at 8:30 EDT will be the first test of the CAD's recent narrow trading range.
08:20 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08%. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.10% effective. Interbank offered rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dipped to 0.08980% after rising to 0.09150% yesterday. The 1-week rate increased to 0.12130% from 0.11925%. The 3-month rate edged up to 0.22875% from 0.22860%. And the 12-month rate was flat at 0.54830%. In the repo market, it's the 5-year note that remains the most special at -0.35% ahead of today's auction.
08:00 EDTOil Action
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 3.3%
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTFutures slightly lower in early trading
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07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower
Treasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower, following the lead from most overseas markets, as equities weaken. Trading volume returned to normal. Intermediate Treasuries are pacing the gains in the U.S. and sources report good buying in the belly from Asian accounts. The 5-year yield slipped 2 bps to 1.71%, with the 10-year yield down slightly at 2.705%. Stocks are lower despite an as expected gain in China's flash PMI and better than expected Eurozone PMIs, though declines in the latter's price components were worrisome. And, Australian CPI was a little below forecast. In the U.S. today, earnings announcements headline with a heavy slate including Apple and Facebook. Data will also be of interest with March new home sales and the flash Markit manufacturing PMI. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.3%. The Treasury also auctions $35 B in 5-year notes, the second leg of this week's 3-pronged offerings. The NY Fed buys $2.0 B to $2.5 B in May 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024 notes.
07:10 EDTFX Update: The euro firmed
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07:03 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:02 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
Week of 4/18 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index down -3.3% for the week
06:59 EDTFitch Ratings to hold a teleconference
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06:58 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
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06:56 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
PricingDirect© Inc. Conference – Issues in Securities Valuation to be held in New York on April 23.
06:01 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 23
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05:56 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade, May 16, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Update: A dive in the AUD has been the main event
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April 22, 2014
22:25 EDTChina's March Flash Manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) rose to 48.3 in April
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21:32 EDTApril Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
16:29 EDTWeek of 5/3 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:29 EDTMarch International Trade to be released at 08:30
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16:29 EDTWeek of 5/3 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The tech and pharma sectors revisited some revenge on the less risky sectors of the asset markets as NASDAQ led a charge higher following a Gordian knot of drug sector M&A and solid Netflix earnings. Set-up for 2-year supply also preoccupied the bond market, even though fresh signs of conflict in East Ukraine emerged over the course of the session. Accordingly, yields probed mostly higher, even after relatively uninspiring data. The FX market remained jailed in Dullsville.
14:10 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: March new home sales will be released on Wednesday and analysts expect the headline to increase 2.3% to 450k (median 450k) from 440k in February. Housing starts data for the month has already been released and revealed a 2.8% increase to a 946k pace of growth and the NAHB index for March ticked up to 47 from 46 in February.
14:01 EDTAverages at session highs
The major equity indexes are uniformly higher, with the Nasdaq leading gains as the tech index is higher by more than 1.1%. If current levels hold into the close, the averages will mark their sixth straight session of gains. Market internals are positive, with both advancing stocks and up volume leading declining stocks and down volume by 3:1, respectively. The price of crude oil is lower by 2.2% to about $102 a barrel, and gold is lower by 0.5%. The Dow up 106 points, the S&P 500 is up 12 points, and the Nasdaq is up 48 points.
13:45 EDTTreasury Action: debt managers sell $35 B in 5-year notes Wednesday
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13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mixed bag
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13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been pretty much dead
FX Action: USD-JPY has been pretty much dead in the water through the N.Y. session, touching lows of 102.46, and a peak of 102.66. The larger Japanese trade deficit reported overnight has weighed some on the yen, as has the better equity market backdrop though analysts maintain until the BoJ's policy outlook becomes clearer, USD-JPY upside could be limited going forward, with 101.00 to 103,00 seen as a reasonable range for now.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: short yields backed up
Treasury Action: short yields backed up on the lackluster 2-year auction results, which came in disappointingly shy of high expectations given the yield cushion and ongoing Ukraine strains. The cash 2-year yield nosed over 0.41% session highs compared to lows in Asia near 0.39% and the 0.447% award rate on the new issue. Look for the roll overnight to effectively flatten the curve tomorrow.
13:05 EDTEx Fed chief Bernanke doesn't see a big risk from inflation
Ex Fed chief Bernanke doesn't see a big risk from inflation, either too low or too high, on the U.S. economy. He's been speaking to the Economics Club of Canada in Toronto. The economy is making considerable progress, he said, and expects prices to speed up to the 2% rate (of course analysts've been hearing forecasts like these for some time). He tried to clarify that forward guidance was meant to set out a reaction function. And he added the Fed wasn't favoring Wall Street over Main Street as it provided stimulus.
12:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
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11:40 EDTTreasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:30 EDTNY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through February 15, 2044. The Street offered $4.915 B. Yields remain mostly higher on the day, though the long end is outperforming with the 30-year steady at 3.528%.
11:30 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are defensive
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10:55 EDTU.S. equities are getting rampy again
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase:
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10:25 EDTThe 0.2% March U.S. existing home sales drop
The 0.2% March U.S. existing home sales drop to a weaker than expected 4.590 M rate followed unrevised prior rates that left declines in seven of the last eight months, and a cumulative drop of 14.7% from the 5.380 M recent-peak last July. Analysts have cyclical gains of just 33% for existing home sales and 23% for pending home sales, versus a larger 67% for new home sales that were particularly hard-hit in the housing downturn, and a 98% cyclical rise for housing starts. Though weather has likely contributed to Q1 sales weakness, financial constraints are likely more important given that a third of sales are cash transactions, and the MBA purchase index set a new cycle-low as recently as February. Sales are rising disproportionately for higher-priced homes, which likely reflects broader financing options for high income households. For the other housing reports, analysts expect a 2.3% March new home sales rise to a 450k rate, and a 0.8% March construction spending rise to a new cycle-high that chases the 2.9.% March construction hours-worked surge.
10:20 EDTRichmond Fed's manufacturing index rebounded to 7 in April
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar was perhaps a shade softer
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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10:13 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
March Existing Home Sales down -7.5% for the year
10:13 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:13 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales slipped 0.2% to 4.59 M in March
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10:00 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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10:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has fallen sharply
Oil Action: NYMEX crude has fallen sharply, currently down $1.76 at $102.61, from pre-opening levels around $104.10. The move was said to have been largely technical in nature, with longs bailing out on the move under $103.85, and again under $103.50. Next support is seen at $102.00, then $100.80.
09:45 EDTBroader market opens in positive territory
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09:45 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Preview
U.S. Richmond Fed Preview: The Richmond Fed index is expected to improve to -1.0 from -7.0 in March. Overall analysts expect minor but continuing improvements in producer sentiment during April as discussed in our commentary.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields nudged higher
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.6% to 210.0 in February
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09:14 EDTFHFA House Price Index Y/Y change data reported
February FHFA House Price Index Y/Y change up 6.9% for the year
09:14 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dipped to 1.1005
FX Action: USD-CAD dipped to 1.1005 from near 1.1020 after the strong wholesale data, bounced back to 1.1020, and has now posted intra day lows of 1.1004. It appears solid bids are in place into the figure now, and a break of 1.0980 will be needed to shift sentiment out of range trade mode. On the other side of the market, over 1.1000, resistance is seen at 1.1030-40.
09:06 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
February FHFA House Price Index M/M change up delayed at source% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:55 EDTU.S. FHFA home prices preview:
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
U.S. equities are marginally firmer as market depth fills back in around the globe and earnings season reaches a crescendo this week, after Netflix powered higher on a strong beat and it's game-on in the pharma sector. Meanwhile, VP Biden stepped up the pressure on Russia to pull back its forces and loyalists to exit occupied buildings. The Dow is 3-points firmer, S&P gained fractionally and NASDAQ is up 6-points ahead of the opening bell. Conditions were mixed overseas, with Japan's N-225 faltering 0.85%, while the Shanghai Comp rose 0.34% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.9% higher amid $20 B in Glaxo-Novartis deals. In the U.S., a potential Valeant-Allergan merger also stirred the pharma pot. Netflix rallied 8% after strong subscriber growth and a likely increase in its subscription prices. Up next are home prices, Richmond Fed and home sales.
08:20 EDTCanada Wholesale Preview
Canada Wholesale Preview: Analysts expect wholesale sales to rise 1.0% in February (median +0.9%) after the 0.8% gain in January. This report is typically overlooked, but an as expected gain would track expectations for a 0.2% rise in February GDP. The 1.4% gain in February manufacturing shipments is supportive of our wholesale sales projection.
08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 42 cents/bbl
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08:05 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rose 0.4%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rose 0.4% in the week ended April 19, rebounding from the 0.3% decline previously. On a y/y basis, sales slowed to 1.9% versus 2.3%. This is disappointing given it was the run up to Easter. Cooler weather apparently offset a modest increase in spending. April sales are forecast to rise 3.5% y/y to 4% y/y.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries were steady overnight
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries were steady overnight with the 10-year yield at 2.71%. Bonds were mixed overseas with European markets mostly lower amid a better risk tone, while and JGBs were higher amid declines in Japanese shares. Volume remained light even as all markets were open after the Easter holidays. There wasn't a lot of news. ECB's Coere indicated the Bank has room for more easing. The markets are shrugging off ongoing Ukraine tensions. U.S. data includes March existing home sales, the FHFA home price index for February, the April Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. The Treasury auctions $32 B in 2-year notes to kick off this week's coupon supply. The wi dipped to 0.435% yesterday. Ex Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak on 8 Years of Crisis Management. Fedspeak goes dark, however, ahead of the April 29, 30 FOMC. The NY Fed buys $0.90 B to $1.15 B in bonds.
07:33 EDTFCC to hold a webinar
The FCC's Office of Intergovernmental Affairs (IGA) holds a webinar on key events and issues related to telecommunications on April 22 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
07:31 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:30 EDTEconomic Club of Canada to hold a discussion
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07:26 EDTGoldman to hold a symposium
CEEMEA Consumer Symposium is being held in London, England on April 22-23.
07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTFutures quiet in early trading
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07:22 EDTStorage Networking Industry Association to hold a conference
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The USD posted moderate losses
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06:08 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 22
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05:47 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade, May 16, 2014
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02:10 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
FX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed among the main currencies. USD-JPY posted a 102.53-72 range while EUR-USD and Cable flat-lined around 1.3790-95 and 1.6790-95, respectively. AUD-USD managed a modest pop to a 0.9359 peak before settling just below here. Revised leading and coincidence data out of Japan had little impact. Underpinning the Aussie was a report in the Australian Financial Review that the RBA's move from a dovish to as neutral bias back in February caused the government chagrin, and that Treasure Hockey apparently let this be know to the central bank. The RBA is, of course, independent, but the story still stop the markets reacting, albeit moderately. Australian data was also good, with the Conference Board February leading Index rising to +0.3% from 0.2%. Stocks markets were modestly higher in Asia, following Wall Street's lead on the back of good earnings reports from corporate bellwethers.
April 21, 2014
16:33 EDTApril ISM Non-Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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15:50 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Preview
U.S. Richmond Fed Preview: The Richmond Fed will be released tomorrow and analysts expect the headline to improve to -1.0 from -7.0 in March. Overall analysts expect minor but continuing improvements in producer sentiment during April as discussed in today's commentary.
15:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTCanada Wholesale Preview
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14:30 EDTTreasury Action: trading is expected to remain fairly confined
Treasury Action: trading is expected to remain fairly confined until a few key upcoming events are out of the way, the April 29, 30 FOMC, the Advance Q1 GDP numbers on April 30, and the April employment data on May 2, and even then may remain locked inside recent ranges. Of course Ukraine tensions remain a wild card. The 5-year yield is expected to hover either side of 1.70%, having vacillated from 1.44% to 1.79% so far this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year is seen stuck around the 2.70% level. It's rotated down to this level from the 3.0% high to end 2013, but is off the 2.58% low from February 3. The FOMC may turn out to be the most uneventful as the Fed is expected to continue shaving $10 B from its asset purchases, while keeping the rest of its policy stance on hold. GDP may be viewed as old news too. Analysts forecast a slowdown in Q1 GDP to a 1.0% clip from 2.6% in Q4, but growth is expected to rebound to a 3.0% or better pace over the rest of the year. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to improve further and climb 200k.
14:00 EDTAverages modestly higher
The major equity indexes are modestly higher and trading in a tight range as the market looks to log its fifth straight day of gains. Market internals are positive, with advancing stocks leading decliners by 5:4 and up volume leading down volume by about the same margin, and volume is notably light. Crude oil and gold are both roughly flat. The Dow is up 36 points, the S&P 500 is up 5 points, and the Nasdaq is up 19 points.
12:40 EDTTreasury Action: supply resumes with $96 B in coupon auctions
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12:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: 2-way flows remain fairly light
Treasury Option Action: 2-way flows remain fairly light, according to sources, though beneath the inert price action on underlying Treasury futures there have been a handful of decent trades mainly in the 10-year sector. Among them were a bullish buyer of 10k in May 124+/125 call 1x2s, a bullish seller of 8k in May 123 puts and bearish buyer of 10k in Jun 123 puts and 5k in May 123/123.5/124 put butterflies. As a package, a seller of 4k in Jun 123 puts vs purchase of 1k Jun 123.5 puts and 2k in Jun 122.5 puts was noted. Otherwise, on the vol front, there was a seller of 2.5k in May 121+put/124+call strangles. Sources are looking for a pullback on Jun 10s to the 123-00 area into the FOMC/payrolls vs +4 ticks and 123-28 presently.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well subscribed
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday,
Treasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday, unchanged since late March. This brings the week's auction total to $169 B, including today's $48 B bill sale and the upcoming $96 B in coupons.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $3.646 B in notes
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11:05 EDTU.S. equities have tripped up again
U.S. equities have tripped up again with the NASDAQ sliding back down into the red and pulling the blue chips off their earlier highs. Ukraine jitters remain a feature, with the larger NY Fed Ops only a temporary bullish lubricant as even USD-JPY slips lower to 102.50. Russian loyalists in Eastern Ukraine have not relinquished government buildings there and the stand-off continues after weekend shootings, which as soured the de-escalation accords and left the markets a bit impatient with little else to trade on. Within the Dow the top gainers are Pfizer +1.3%, Home Depot +1.1% and IBM +1.0%, while biggest losers are Disney -1.5% and Intel -0.9%. The T-note yield has eased back below 2.70% as well, though it is unlikely to tread too much lower while awaiting supply; 2.596% marks April lows.
10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has stayed pinned
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10:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a number of banks are the issuing calendar
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $3.25 B to $4.0 B in notes
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found a base over 102.50
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained inert
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10:10 EDTU.S. leading indicators climbed 0.8% in March to 100.9x
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10:01 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
March Leading Indicators up 0.8% vs. consensus of 0.7% for the month
09:50 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:48 EDTBofA/Merrill's economist & strategist hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:42 EDTMarket opens week in positive territory
Stock futures drifted lower during the pre-market trading session, though the broader market opened slightly higher. Investors will be watching the leading economic indicators, which are due out shortly, for clues on the economy. Investors are also bracing for another busy week in terms of earnings reports. Early in the session, the Dow is up 20 points, the Nasdaq is up 8 points and the S&P is up 3 points.
09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are too quiet
Euro$ interest rate futures are too quiet with the lack of momentum a common complaint as the markets attempt to get back up to steam following the break, but many trading flags still at half mast. There won't be much help from Fedspeak this week amidst the blackout period in front of the FOMC, while supply may hold the rate futures captive as well barring exogenous developments. The front Jun 2014 contract is, therefore, flat at 99.77, while the deferreds are 1-2 ticks higher further out.
09:34 EDTJefferies' commodities analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:23 EDTCitigroup's securitized products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:21 EDTBarclays' industrial analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTCitigroup's healthcare services and managed care analysts hold a conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to 0.20 in March
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08:36 EDTFutures retreat from earlier highs after data
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08:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded inside a narrow 1.1026-1.1009 range
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08:20 EDTNY Fed will intervene each day this week
NY Fed will intervene each day this week to buy between $7.5 B and $9.5 B in Treasuries total. Meanwhile, the April 29, 30 FOMC meeting looms and this will quiet Fedspeak, which will go dormant until May. for more detail on this week's Ops.
08:05 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08% after a 0.07% close on Thursday. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.3125% Thursday with a 0.09% effective. Libor is closed today with U.K. on holiday. In the repo market, the 5-year note is on special at -0.18%.
07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 15 cents/bbl
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to lower
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07:30 EDTFutures slightly higher to begin the week
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:05 EDTFX Update: Forex market volumes were minimal
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06:50 EDTTreasury yields are lower on Ukraine tensions
Treasury yields are lower on Ukraine tensions following a gun battle in the eastern part of the country, despite the diplomatic accord. Kiev also accused Russia of preparing the ground for an invasion. The 10-year yield dipped to 2.70%, down 3 bp on the day. In Asia, the JGB held steady at 0.6%. Many centres remain closed today, including much of Europe (the U.K., Germany, Switzerland, Italy, among others), Hong Kong and Australia. In China, the one-year interest rate swap fell to a low of 3.72% today, the lowest level since last June and completing a 50 bp decline over the last week on speculation the PBoC will respond to economic slowing. The Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.5% loss on a report that regulators will start reviewing IPO plans this week for the first time since January, and the market is bracing for a flurry of approvals. Japan's Nikkei closed near flat, losing intraday gains following much worse than expected trade data.
06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 21
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05:56 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade, May 16, 2014
April 19, 2014
04:15 EDTApril Employment Situation to be released at 08:30
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04:15 EDTMarch Factory Orders to be released at 10:00
04:15 EDTWeek of 4/30 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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04:15 EDTWeek of 4/21 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
April 17, 2014
19:34 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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19:34 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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19:34 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
February FHFA House Price Index M/M change will be reported at 09:00 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
16:35 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:35 EDTFed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported
Week of 4/16 Fed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit at $39.7B
16:35 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:35 EDTWeek of 4/25 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:35 EDTMarch Construction Spending to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTApril ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTWeek of 4/26 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
16:35 EDTMarch Personal Income and Outlays to be released at 08:30
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16:35 EDTApril Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: most markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday
Treasury Action: most markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday (except Asia ex-Japan). Trading in bonds has been complicated in recent sessions due to a variety of conflicting signals, and it's likely to remain choppy in the coming weeks. Yellen's dovish comments from Wednesday will be measured in the context of upcoming data, which are expected to reflect further bounce from the weather-depressed activities at the start of the year. On tap are a number of housing reports, flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs, and consumer sentiment. Earnings reports will impact too via their influence on Wall Street. Supply hits too with the Treasury's $96 B in auctions, with $32 B in 2s (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B in 7s (Thursday). The NY Fed will intervene each day next week to buy between $7.5 B and $9.5 B in Treasuries. Meanwhile, the April 29, 30 FOMC meeting looms and will quiet Fedspeak until May.
14:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:02 EDTAverages drift higher
The major equity indexes are higher and near their best levels of the session in the final trading day of this holiday-shortened week. The averages opened a bit lower but have drifted higher throughout the session as the market looks to finish with gains for the fourth straight day. Market internals are positive, with advancing stocks leading decliners by about 5:4 while up volume is leading down volume is up 2:1. Crude oil prices are up 0.4% to north of $104 a barrel, while gold is down 0.6%. The Dow is up 20 points, the S&P 500 is up 6 points, and the Nasdaq is up 22 points.
13:46 EDTDiplomats reach deal meant to calm Ukraine crisis, Washington Post says
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13:30 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: the markets got a little more religion Wednesday after Fed Chair Yellen indicated rates are likely to remain near zero for a long time to come, perhaps into late 2016. That further eased fears of a rate hike as soon as Q1 2015. However, the devil could be in the data as recent reports suggest a nice bounce in Q2 activity. And many economists are forecasting at least 3% global growth this year, with the U.S. a significant contributor. This week's releases have supported those outlooks, and upcoming data should too, according to Survey medians. March durable goods are expected to climb another 1.9%. Consumer sentiment is seen picking up. The May 2 employment release is expected to show jobs rising 204k, with the unemployment rate dipping to 6.6%.
12:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar is marginally higher
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11:55 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to poke higher
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $18 B 5-year TIPS sale was solid
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11:15 EDTTreasury $18 B 5-year TIPS auction:
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11:10 EDTTreasury Supply: debt managers announced a $96 B package of offerings
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10:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed action
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10:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is back over $104/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is back over $104/bbl, currently up 60 cents at $104.36. The better U.S. data helped support, while going into the weekend, shorts are being covered on the back of geopolitical event risk. In addition, Iranian exports dropped for the first time in five months in March, and are expect to fall again in April. Traders say the $105.00 mark offers up initial resistance.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending April 11
Gas inventories 24 Bcf build vs. consensus of 36 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields ramped back up to highs
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10:20 EDTThe Philly Fed April pop to a 16.6 seven-month high
The Philly Fed April pop to a 16.6 seven-month high extended the March bounce to 9.0 from February's -6.3 fifteen-month low. The ISM-adjusted measure also rose further, to 52.8, after bouncing in March to 50.4 from 49.0 in February, 49.7 in January, and a higher 53.7 in December. Today's Philly Fed pop bucked Monday's Empire State drop to 1.29 from 5.61, with a 49.3 ISM-adjusted reading. Analysts expect a Richmond Fed rise to -1 from -7, a Dallas Fed rise to 6.0 from 4.9, an ISM down-tick to 53.5 from 53.7, and an ISM-NMI rise to 57.0 from 55.9. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to sustain the March rise to 52 from 51 in February but the same 52 in January and December, versus a 54 three-year high last October and November and a 56 cycle-high in February and March of 2011. Analysts saw a 36 cycle-low average in March of 2009. The firm Philly Fed data, with gains for both the jobs and workweek components, alongside this morning's lean claims reading, point to upside risk for our 200k April nonfarm payroll estimate.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved to session highs
FX Action: The dollar moved to session highs versus the yen and euro after the better Philly Fed index print, taking EUR-USD to 1.3833 and USD-JPY up to 102.27. Yields moved up a touch, while equities remain underwater, but off their worst levels.
10:10 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index climbed to 16.6 in April
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10:00 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
April Philadelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index at 16.6 vs. consensus of 10.0
09:55 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:54 EDTMarket moderately lower in early trading
Stock futures began the session lower following earnings misses last night by two of the biggest names in tech, IBM (IBM) and Google (GOOG). However, the futures moved off their lows as some other corporate giants, including General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Goldman Sachs (GS), reported better than expected earnings and the jobless claims data also positively surprised. Despite the futures action, the broader market opened slightly lower and the averages have remained in the red in the early going. The Dow is down 52 points, the Nasdaq is down 20 points and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to session lows
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09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
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09:14 EDTDA Davidson advanced materials analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are heading into the home stretch
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up
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08:50 EDTThe 2k U.S. initial claims up-tick to 304k
The 2k U.S. initial claims up-tick to 304k in the BLS survey week of April trimmed last week's huge 30k plunge to a 302k (was 300k) cycle-low, following the prior 22k pop to 332k at the end of March. Analysts have a big net downswing from the lofty 351k late-February reading as the claims boost from adverse weather has been reversed with gusto, though the April gyrations are all at risk of distortion from this year's late Easter. Claims have spent two weeks below the 307k prior cycle-low last September that was attributable to California and Nevada computer glitches at the BLS. Claims have averaged 324k over the eleven weeks since the two-month stretch of winter holiday distortions ended, which is below the 332k average in September-October of last year before holiday distortions took effect. Claims have averaged just 303k thus far in April, versus higher prior averages of 320k in March, 337k in February, and 333k in January. Today's 304k BLS survey week reading undershot prior BLS readings of 323k in March, 334k in February, and 329k in January. Analysts still assume a 200k April payroll gain.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims inched up 2k to 304k in the week ended April 12
U.S. initial jobless claims inched up 2k to 304k in the week ended April 12 after the prior week's 30k drop to 302k (revised from 300k). The 304k is the lowest level since December 2007. The 4-week moving average fell to 312k from 316.75k previously (revised from 316.25k). Claims not seasonally adjusted rose 17.5k to 317.7k from 300.19k (revised from 298.4k). Continuing claims declined 11k to 2,739k for the week ended April 5 after falling 88k to 2,750k for the March 29 week (revised from 2,776k). The initial jobless claims data take on extra importance since it coincides with the BLS employment survey week. The strength in the jobs numbers could push stocks higher and pressure Treasuries.
08:40 EDTTreasury Action: another low reading on claims
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08:36 EDTFutures drift into positive territory following jobless claims data
Stock drifted higher following the weekly jobless claims data. The jobless claims report showed that 304,000 initial claims were filed versus the expected 315,000, while continuing claims came in at 2.73M versus the expected 2.78M.
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 4/12 Jobless Claims up 2K from prior week
08:25 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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08:10 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:00 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mostly softer overnight, moving to lows of the week versus the euro, and struggling to maintain 102 against the yen. USD-CAD found support under 1.10, while cable moved to a five-year high over 1.6840. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EDT highlight the U.S. calendar this morning, followed by the April Philly Fed index at 10:00 EDT. Trade is likely to slow early today, into the Good Friday holiday tomorrow.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries were steady overnight
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07:36 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:05 EDTFX Update
FX Update: The dollar maintained a generally soft tone following Yellen's dovish speech yesterday. Trade was quiet in Europe with some countries already off for the long Easter weekend. EUR-USD rose to a new high for the week of 1.3864. Cable, already underpinned following yesterday's stellar labour market data, edged out a fresh five-year high of 1.6842. USD-JPY dipped under 102.00, to a low of 101.86 before settling around 102.00-102.10. AUD-USD initially rose in early Sydney trade, but good selling interest was seen form 0.9390 and the pair drifted back to the 0.9440 area during the European AM session. Data didn't have bearing today. Eurozone March PPI came in slightly below expectations at -0.9% y/y. The Reuters Tankan report found the headline Japan manufacturers index up 7 points, and the non-manufacturers index rising to a record. Australia's NAB Q1 quarterly business confidence survey dipped to a reading of 6, after 8 in Q4.
06:19 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility elevated on Ukraine uncertainty
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03:33 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade, April 17, 2014
02:10 EDTFX Update: The USD was mostly lower in Asia
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02:00 EDTApril Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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April 16, 2014
16:37 EDTWeek of 4/25 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:37 EDTApril Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
15:30 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Focus shifted back to the U.S. and away from the Ukraine on Weds, as Fed Chair Yellen stepped to the podium again to explain in some greater detail why she's still cautious about the slack in the labor market. That helped U.S. assets maintain a slight edge, with stocks underpinned, yields off highs and the yen holding its weaker profile. There was plenty of other Fedspeak to boot, while the Fed Beige Book report saw some improvement in the economy after spring finally arrived. Data was again mixed, as housing starts remained relatively subdued in March, while industrial production and capacity use shot up.
15:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI, due Thursday, to expand at a annual rate of 1.4% in March after the 1.1% rate in February. The acceleration is due to the return of a more "normal" comparison with the year ago month following the easy comparison with an elevated February of 2013. CPI is seen rising 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.8% m/m surge in February. The BoC's core CPI index is seen rising 0.3% m/m in March, in-line with the gains seen in past months of March. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 1.3% y/y pace in March, a slight pick-up from the 1.2% rate in February. The BoC boosted its forecasts for total CPI, with the measure now seen at 2.0% by Q1 of 2015. But the coming pick-up is due to transitory effects, namely energy prices. Hence, core inflation growth is seen remaining low this year amid ample spare capacity and retail competition, keeping the Bank's policy guidance firmly in neutral alongside a dovish focus on downside risks to underlying inflation.
15:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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14:55 EDTTreasury Action: trading has been quiet and should remain
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields tapered slightly lower
Treasury Action: yields tapered slightly lower with stocks following Yellen's speech, while the Beige Book report was generally a bit more upbeat on multiple counts thanks in part to the thawing in the weather. Hawk Fisher continues to jawbone on the risk of inflation as well, along with fiscal headwinds and some improvement in the weather. The T-note yield again held below 2.66% highs this week and has retreated to the 2.64% area again, while still some distance from the Ukraine-motivated breach of 2.60% yesterday. The curve is flatter, with 2s-10s +227 bp and 5s-30s at +181 bp.
14:18 EDTAverages remain higher following Beige Book
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14:15 EDT Employment Cost Index to be released at 08:30
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14:15 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30
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14:15 EDTApril ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book reported activity increased in most regions
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14:13 EDTFed says economic activity rebounded, most sectors strengthened
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14:05 EDTBeige book says manufacturing better in most districts, housing markets varied
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14:04 EDTFed says consumer spending increased in most Districts
In its latest Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve said consumer spending increased in most Districts, as weather conditions improved and foot traffic returned. The transportation sector generally strengthened in recent weeks, with higher port volumes and increased trucking. Even in districts where transportation was soft, the outlook was optimistic.
14:03 EDTBeige book suggests economic activity increased in most regions
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13:45 EDTAnd now Fed hawk Fisher: moving in the right direction
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13:45 EDTFed Beige Book preview:
Fed Beige Book preview: the anecdotal report of regional activity across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (March through early April) should reflect some bounce back from the weather depressed conditions from earlier in the year. But it shouldn't reveal any big surprises given the boilerplate nature of the report and the gradual nature of growth. The general characterization of growth has been "modest to moderate" for some time now, and analysts don't look for that to change. The March report said the general outlook was "optimistic" and that should hold too. There should be a pick up in sales and manufacturing after the hit from weather. Housing probably improved, albeit only modestly, and commercial real estate likely expanded further. Employment should have improved as well, with ongoing shortages of skilled workers. Wages and prices probably remained relatively steady.
13:35 EDTYellen takeaways: her comments revealed her dovish leaning
Yellen takeaways: her comments revealed her dovish leaning, with no hint of a time-frame to rate hikes as she continues to back away from that rookie fumble in the March 19 presser. The Fed chair is still very concerned about the sluggish recovery and the slack in the labor market, and stressed that price pressures are more likely to remain low than to accelerate. It looks as though rates are going to remain low for quite some time, perhaps into 2016. Stocks have extended gains on her comments, which have in turn nudged yields a little higher. However, yields remain below where they printed following the March 19 FOMC press conference.
13:30 EDTYellen Q&A: a wide variety of indicators
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13:25 EDTMore from Yellen:
More from Yellen: the Fed is mindful of the spillover effects as accommodation is removed. But she noted the timing of policy moves and challenges of policy are different for different countries. Europe is returning to growth at a modest pace, but is more challenged by its banking sector problems. Like Bernanke before her, she didn't really take any responsibility for the problems faced by other economies to the Fed's actions (remember Bernanke just got into a war of words with RBI chief Rajan on this issue).
13:20 EDTYellen Q&A: labor market has been perplexing with respect to historical norms
Yellen Q&A: labor market has been perplexing with respect to historical norms. In answering what role the Fed can play, she said the FOMC's accommodative policy stance has been the most effective. In the public sector, more training will be helpful. Answering a question on whether the Fed would be willing to raise the funds rate above the inflation rate, she responded of course the Fed will be "very focused" on removing accommodation when the time comes (that's going to be a judgment call).
12:45 EDTTreasury Action: Yellen was largely as dovish as advertised
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady
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12:40 EDTFed Chair Yellen reiterated the guidance change wasn't a policy change
Fed Chair Yellen reiterated the guidance change wasn't a policy change in her speech on Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery, adding the Fed is committed to accommodation. The Fed's new guidance relies on a wide range of factors, but rates will stay low for a longer time if jobs and inflation miss their targets. The recovery has come a long way though is still far from maximum employment and wage gains are still proceeding at an historically slow pace. It's plausible the Fed hits its goals by the end of 2016 she noted. She's also more concerned over low inflation than a substantial rise above the 2% mark. While this speech didn't have quite the political tone of her prior comments, the remarks here show her to be still firmly on the dovish side.
12:30 EDTYellen discusses 'continuing commitment' to accommodation
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York, "In other words, the larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from their respective objectives, and the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained. This approach underscores the continuing commitment of the FOMC to maintain the appropriate degree of accommodation to support the recovery. The new guidance also reaffirms the FOMC's view that decisions about liftoff should not be based on any one indicator, but that it will take into account a wide range of information on the labor market, inflation, and financial developments."Reference Link
12:25 EDTWeek of 4/25 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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12:25 EDTU.S. assets are turning higher into Yellen's speech
U.S. assets are turning higher into Yellen's speech with some speculation that she'll reiterate her dovish themes on the ongoing shortfall on the jobs and inflation fronts. The T-note yield has edged lower from 2.66% to the 2.64% area, while the NASDAQ is over 1% higher now and dollar-yen is having a look at 102.36 session highs again.
11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds
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11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some smaller bearish trades
Euro$ interest rate options: some smaller bearish trades have been reported in an otherwise pretty quiet session so far in terms of flows. These included the purchase of 2k in Green Dec 72/77 put spreads vs the sale of an 82 call, and a purchase of 5k in Green Jul 75/76/78 broken put butterflies. Jun 2014s are flat near 99.77, while the deferreds are up to 4-ticks lower out the strip.
10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds. The small buyback won't offset much of the losses in Treasuries where the long bond yield is up over 2 bps to 3.48%.
10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of April 11
Crude oil inventories 10.0M build vs. consensus of 1.75M build. Gasoline inventories 154K draw vs. consensus of 1.75M draw. Distillates 1.28M draw vs. consensus of flat.
10:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.0960
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09:55 EDTMarket opens sharply higher as earnings season picks up
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09:55 EDTThe surprising 0.7% U.S. March industrial production rise
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated near highs
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09:25 EDTU.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March
U.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March from February's 1.9% gain to 920k (revised up from 907k). This is a second month of increase (4.7% cumulative) after declines 11.8% in January and 7.0% in December. Single family starts rose 6.0%, with multi-family falling 3.1%. Building permits fell 2.4% to 990k from a revised 1014k (was 1014k). Data are a little light compared to expectations.
09:25 EDTThe anemic U.S. housing starts bounce
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar traded higher
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in March with capacity utilization at 79.2%
U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in March with capacity utilization at 79.2% (the highest since June 2008). The 0.6% February increase in production was revised higher to 1.2%, with January's -0.1% revised to -0.2%. Capacity utilization was bumped up to 78.8% in February from 78.4% previously. Manufacturing production rose 0.5% last month versus a 1.4% February rebound (was 0.9%). Motor vehicle and parts production fell 0.8%. Machinery production slid 0.3%. Computer and electronic production was up 1.0%. Utilities rebounded 1.0% after a revised 0.3% February drop (was -0.2%). Mining rose 1.5%. Data are much better than expected and are likely to pressure Treasury yields higher.
09:17 EDTIndustrial Production Manufacturing data reported
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09:17 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate data reported
March Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate at 79.2% vs. consensus of 78.7%
09:17 EDTIndustrial Production data reported
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities have extended gains
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09:05 EDTU.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March
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09:00 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: March industrial production is expected to be up 0.4% (median 0.2%) following the 0.6% bounce in February. There is some upside risk to the report from the stronger hours worked data that was released in the March employment report.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped slightly
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08:37 EDTFutures remain higher following housing data
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08:35 EDTAtlanta Fed dove Lockhart said economic data still supports
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08:31 EDTHousing Starts Permits data reported
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08:31 EDTHousing Starts data reported
March Housing Starts at 0.946M vs. consensus of 0.965M
08:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD firmed up
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08:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:15 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied
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07:50 EDTFed Chair Yellin will discuss monetary policy
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Better China GDP data helped risk appetite overnight, allowing USD-JPY to finally break over 102.00. EUR-USD edged higher as well, helped mainly by a surge in cable, which traded over 1.6800 following forecast-beating U.K. employment data. USD-CAD traded briefly over 1.1000 into this morning's BoC policy announcement, though has since returned to 1.0990. The U.S. calendar reveals March housing starts at 8:30 EDT, followed by March industrial production at 9:15 EDT. Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data is due at 10:30 EDT, while the Beige Book for the April 29-30 FOMC meeting is due at 14:00 EDT.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose to 4.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose to 4.3% in data released earlier, on top of a 1.3% gain in the purchase index and a 6.9% bounce in the refinancing index for the week ended Apr-11. The better overall tone in the mortgage market was fed by a 9 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to an average 4.47%, which didn't hurt after the FOMC minutes last week leaned to the dovish side, amid stock market weakness and escalation in the Ukraine that provided a powerful tonic for the bond market. The overhang of past winter weather effects, however, has crimped some housing stats into 2014, though analysts see some bounce-back ahead this spring. For more detail on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped slightly lower
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07:24 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:22 EDTDallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher is keynote speaker
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07:21 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at the Economic Club of New York
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07:17 EDTJeremy Stein, member of the Fed Reserve System to speak at conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
Week of 4/11 MBA Purchase Applications Index up 1.0% for the week
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:53 EDTChina GDP growth exceeds expectations, South China Morning Post says
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 16
Globex S&P futures are recently up 9.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 3.1%, DAX up 0.80%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $104.65, natural gas down 0.59%, gold at $1299 an ounce, and copper down 1.62%.
05:49 EDT April front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
04:40 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has ticked higher
FX Action: EUR-USD has ticked higher to a peak of 1.3846 so far, meeting some selling interest into 1.3850. The move cleared yesterday's high and has swung Monday's 1.3863 peak back into scope. Final March inflation data is due out of the Eurozone shortly, though this should be confirmed at 0.5% y/y, which in the event won't a market mover. The market will be looking to today's U.S. slate for leads, which has dollar-moving potential as analysts have a speech by Fed boss Yellen, the Fed's Beige Book report, and production and housing data. (Yellen is in fact speaking before the Economic Club of New York, which has in the past been a venue for policy insights from other Fed chiefs).
02:20 EDTFX Update
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April 15, 2014
15:53 EDTApril Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00
15:53 EDTApril State Street Investor Confidence Index to be released at 10:00
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15:53 EDTWeek of 4/26 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:53 EDTWeek of 4/26 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
15:40 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Safety first, remorse later. Treasuries rallied hard after skirmishing in Eastern Ukraine escalated amid reports of reprisals in the air and land as Kiev sought to wrestle back its Kramatorsk airfield from separatists. Ukraine "special forces" stepped in and this reportedly resulted in casualties and prompted outcry from both West and East. Initial market reaction saw stocks, yields and dollar-yen dive for cover, but talk about a Nikkei report of an economic downgrade for Japan in April partly unwound the aversion trade late. Yellen gave a technical speech on funding measures, while data continued to provide mixed signals as well.
14:30 EDTFed Board discount rate meeting Minutes
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14:15 EDTShort-covering on equities
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13:52 EDTAverages lower as Nasdaq lags
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13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found buyers into 101.50
FX Action: USD-JPY found buyers into 101.50, reportedly Japanese backed, and has since rallied back over 101.75 in concert with Wall Street's paring of its sharp earlier losses. Depending how much more stocks can rally back, the 102.00 level may yet again come into focus into the close. Buy stops from 102.10 could be getting large.
13:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade
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12:20 EDTTreasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong
Treasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong amid increased risk aversion with Ukraine tensions and Wall Street anxieties. The bill priced at 0.025%, inside the 0.035% at the bid deadline. There were nearly $124.8 B in bids for 5.00 cover, a little better than last week's 4.98 and the 4.76 average. Indirect bidders took 26.2%, in line with the better than 20% over the past three auctions, but the most since February 19.
12:10 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a $3 B Wal-Mart multi-trancher
U.S. corporate debt: a $3 B Wal-Mart multi-trancher will include 5-, 10- and 30-year legs (ranging from +25 to +95 bps over), while there are a couple of smaller deals afoot as well such as OCP S.A. 10-year on Weds. In high yield, MIE Holdings is prepping a 5-year and Rice Energy has a $750 M 8-year on Thurs. Not much supply to get worked up about here other than the Wal-Mart deal that could add to the mix on underlying Treasuries, which remain well-bid thanks to Vlad.
12:10 EDTFebruary TIC Data show "Risk-On" Trade:
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: hefty downside positioning
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11:38 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility up on escalation of Ukraine unrest
Market-Vector Russia ETF Trust April call option implied volatility of 42, May is at 34, August is at 30, November is at 29; compared to its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY again failed at 102.00
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase:
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to muddle under highs
Treasury Action: yields continue to muddle under highs as stocks get the sniffles again following more alarming headlines out of the Ukraine now, along with the disappointing miss on NAHB HMI. USD-JPY had been getting a little rampy as well, but was just denied a test of 102.00 and sent packing to 101.80 again. The T-note yield has been struggling to decisively clear 2.66% and has since rotated back below 2.65%. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +226 bp.
10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index edged up to 47 in April
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10:00 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
April Housing Market Index at 47 vs. consensus of 49
09:47 EDTCoke, J&J earnings help lift market in early trading
Stock futures were steady and mildly positive during the pre-market trading session, leading to a higher open for the broader market despite higher than expected consumer prices data and a lower than expected Empire manufacturing report. Better than expected earnings from corporate giants Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) have helped lift the Dow and the other major averages in the early going. About 15 minutes after the opening bell, the Dow is up 79 points, the Nasdaq is up 27 points and the S&P is up 11 points.
09:30 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
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09:25 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. CPI March headline and core price increases
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD trades to 1.1010 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD trades to 1.1010 highs, making six-session highs in the progress. Slightly wide U.S./Canada yield differentials have likely been a factor in the CAD's softening this morning, while stops at 1.1000 helped USD-CAD higher as well. The next upside target will be the April 4 peak of 1.1042.
09:20 EDTU.S. equities shed some of their gains
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09:15 EDTCapital flows showed foreigners bought $167.7 B in U.S. assets in Feb
Capital flows showed foreigners bought $167.7 B in U.S. assets in Feb after buying $87.0 B in January (revised from $83.0 B). Overseas accounts purchased $85.7 B in net long term assets versus $7.7 B in January (revised from $7.3 B). Demand for Treasuries rebounded as accounts bought $92.4 B in coupons (after selling $584 M in January), and sold $882 M in equities, $75 M in agencies, and $6.7 B in corporate bonds. Belgium was the biggest buyer of Treasury notes and bonds at $30.9 B, followed by the U.K. ($12.3 B) and Japan ($9.1 B). Switzerland was the biggest seller of Treasuries at $7.3 B, followed by Russia (-$5.6 B) and Oil Exporters (-$2.7 B), China (-$2.7 B), and France (-$2.7 B).
09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made a feeble attempt
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09:10 EDTU.S. TIC flows preview:
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09:00 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
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09:00 EDTThe April Empire State headline drop to 1.29
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen didn't discuss monetary policy or the economy
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields got caught in the crossfire
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed up slightly
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08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index slid to 1.3 in April
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index slid to 1.3 in April after rebounding to 5.6 in March, weaker than expected. The index hit a recent high of 12.5 in January which was the best since May 2012. The components were mixed. Employment improved to 8.2 from 5.9. The workweek dipped to 2.0 from 4.7. New orders dropped to -2.8 from 3.1. Prices paid edged up to 22.5 from 21.2. Prices received climbed to 10.2 from 2.4. The 6-month outlook index rose to 38.2 from 33.2, with the future employment index at 22.5 from 17.7 and capital expenditures at 23.5 from 16.5.
08:43 EDTBoston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren to speak at Husson University
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08:40 EDTU.S. March CPI edged up 0.2% with the core rate up 0.2% as well
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08:34 EDTFutures remain higher following economic data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the consumer prices report and the Empire Manufacturing report. The CPI data showed that consumer prices rose 0.2% overall versus the expected increase of 0.1% while the core reading, which removes food and energy, was also up 0.2% versus the expected increase of 0.1%. The Empire Manufacturing Index for April came in at 1.29 versus expectations of a reading of 8.00.
08:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy data reported
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08:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI data reported
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08:31 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
April Empire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index at 1.29 vs. consensus of 7.50
08:30 EDTFed Chair Yellen will appear in a pre-recorded video
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08:20 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview: The first of the April producer sentiment measures will be released in the form of the Empire State index. Analysts expect the headline to improve to 8.0 (median 8.0) after a gain to 5.6 in March. Broadly analysts expect producer sentiment to continue to rebound from the dip analysts saw in February of this year.
08:10 EDTU.S. ICSC chain store sales slipped 0.3% in the week ended April 12
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 82 cents/bbl
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07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:45 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to fractionally lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to fractionally lower with the 10-year yield having inched up to 2.65% versus 2.635% in Asian action. Trading volume was light. Global bonds are mostly higher, paced by the European periphery. Equities are mixed, having traded narrowly unchanged levels. There was plenty of overnight news and mostly disappointing. Chinese money supply and loan data was a little weaker than expected. German ZEW also fell short of forecasts, while U.K. BRC retail sales slowed. Ukraine remains tense. Those factors have weighed on stocks. In the U.S. the calendar remains crowded with March CPI, April Empire State, February TIC capital flows, and the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index on tap. There is Fedspeak from Chair Yellen who will give opening remarks (via video) at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference. There's also Fedspeak from the hawkish Plosser, and doves Rosengren and Kocherlakota. The NY Fed will buy $1.75 B to $2.25 B in notes maturing from January 2020 through March 31, 2021. Earnings news comes from Yahoo!, J&J, Coca-Cola, Intel, CSX, along with more mid-tier financials.
07:39 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:38 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen provides opening remarks at conference
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD made its way briefly to near 1.3790 in London trade, as USD-JPY was supported over 101.70, though still unable to crack the 102.00 level. USD-CAD meanwhile, touched 1.1000 highs, Overall, trade was light. The U.S. calendar will reveal March CPI and the April N.Y. Fed index, both at 8:30 EDT. followed by February TIC flow data at 9:00 EDT. The April NAHB housing market index is due at 10:00 EDT. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, while Treasury yields are little changed.
07:29 EDTGlobal Pacific & Partners to hold a conference
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07:27 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Australian Emerging Companies Conference is being held in Melbourne, Australia on April 15-16.
07:21 EDTFutures suggest market will extend advance
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07:05 EDTFX Update
FX Update: EUR-USD managed to edge out a fresh six-day low of 1.3790 in a move triggered by a sub-expectations German ZEW sentiment outcome, though this was offset by forecast-beating trade figures and the euro settled back on the north side of 1.3800. Elsewhere, sterling quickly recovered from a post-CPI dive, with Cable returning to levels around 1.6730 after a brief dive to 1.6708. A new cycle low of 1.6% y/y in U.K. CPI hadn't been entirely expected. However, Cable ran into a cluster of good buy orders ahead of 1.6700, and there are also expectations for a solid labour market report tomorrow, which should see unemployment dip back to 7.1% and confirm the first positive rate in real average household incomes. AUD settled moderately lower following the release of the RBA minutes to the April policy review, which noted that the AUD was still high by historical standards and that the exchange rate will be less supportive of the economy than before, although the overall tone was quite positive and said that interest rates would remain steady for a prolonged period. Some commentaries also attributed the Aussie's softening to a liquidity draining operation in China today, in addition to China's credit report. AUD-USD dipped to 0.9385 from the 0.9420 area, but remained above yesterday's 0.9376 low.
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 15
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April 14, 2014
17:12 EDTMarch Pending Home Sales Index to be released at 10:00
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15:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview
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15:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: The March overall-CPI is expected to rise 0.3% (median 0.1%), while the core index rises 0.1% (median 0.1%). Analysts've seen a strong round of March inflationary data thus far, as trade prices rose a surprising 0.8% for exports and 0.6% for import prices, alongside a 0.5% PPI headline rise with a 0.6% core surge.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A spring thaw on retail sales and better than expected topline earnings on Citi initially bought some time for Wall Street, but the trap door of risk opened back up and and this capped stocks and yields over the course of the Monday session. More dovish jawboning from the ECB helped keep a lid on the euro, along with brighter U.S. data and rising tensions over Russia's creeping annexation of Eastern Ukraine. Option activity from shorter euro$s to longer-bond futures was mostly played from the bearish side, though fairly mixed overall.
14:50 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect manufacturing shipments, due Tuesday, to rise 1.0% in February (median same). There is some downside risk to our estimate, as weather was still harsh in February, especially in the U.S. (which is the destination for many of Canada's manufactured goods). But industrial production in the U.S. improved in February. And the 3.6% surge in February exports is supportive of our manufacturing projection. This is the first industry level report that informs the outlook of February GDP. A solid gain would be suggestive of continued expansion in Canada's economy after the 0.5% rebound in January GDP. Analysts expect a 0.2% rise in February GDP.
14:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: hefty put positioning
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14:01 EDTAverages higher but off best levels
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14:00 EDTU.S. equities are attempting to hold gains
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13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mixed bag on 5-year positioning
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12:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: offerings are light
U.S. corporate bond update: offerings are light to begin the holiday abbreviated period after the $25 B sold last week was the most in four weeks. Bank of East Asia has a $750 M 3-year, looking to price at +165 bps. Kimco Realty is offering $500 M in 7-year notes (just upped from $350 M) at +105 bps. There is a benchmark 3- and 5-year deal from KT Corp, with guidance at +105 bps and +115 bps, respectively.
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly defensive positioning
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $48 B bill auction was well sponsored
Treasury's $48 B bill auction was well sponsored, though results weren't quite as strong as recent prior stats. The $25 B 3-month bill stopped at 0.035%, right on the screws, and slightly cheaper than last week's 0.03%. Bids totaled $114.3 B for a 4.59 cover, down from last week's 4.88 and but fractionally better than the 4.51 average. Indirect bidders took 19.5%, better than the prior 16.2% and the 18.9% average. The $23 B 6-month bill was awarded at 0.05%, a little richer than the 0.055% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled $113.1 B for a 4.96 cover, below the prior 5.35 cover and the 4.74 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 35.6%, down from 42.7% previously, but a little better than the 33.2% average.
11:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are lower as stocks re-rebound and the firmer retail sales print earlier leaves a mark on the short-dated rate contracts. There will be some Fedspeak from Governor Tarullo later, but this will be on big bank regulation and shouldn't stray into the monetary policy sphere, unless some tape bomb crops up in Q&A. The front Jun 2014 contract is flat near 99.77, but the deferreds are 1-6 ticks lower further out the curve.
11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was again pushed back
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD tripped stops at 1.0950
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through February 15, 2044. The Street offered $4.797 B. Yields continue to drift higher, though the long end's losses are minimal. The 30-year is essentially flat at 3.488%.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:00 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields found traction again
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10:40 EDTThe restrained 0.4% February U.S. business inventories
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to settle lower
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in February
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10:00 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
February Business Inventories up 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
09:55 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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09:50 EDTRetail sales propel market higher at start of short week
Stock futures improved during pre-market trading following the better than expected retail sales data. The futures action led to a sharply higher open for the broader market. The averages are being led by the financials thanks in large part to stronger than expected report from Citigroup (C). The major averages have pared some of their gains in the early going, but remain up about 0.5%. The Dow is up 71 points, the Nasdaq is up 20 points and the S&P is up 9 points about 20 minutes into trading.
09:50 EDTFedspeak resumes with moderate governor Tarullo
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09:30 EDTThe 1.1% March retail sales headline gain
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09:26 EDTJPMorgan's medical supplies analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has given back
FX Action: USD-CAD has given back post-U.S. retail sales gains, stalling at 1.0990, and easing back into 1.0965. As was the case in Asia, solid offers into the 1.1000 level capped gains, and with risk appetite firmed up this morning, CAD buyers have returned. Support is seen into 1.0960, with stops now noted at 1.0950.
09:10 EDTThe Mother of All Bubbles?
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08:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 7 cents/bbl at $103.81 in early N.Y. trade, bouncing in the aftermath of the better U.S. retail sales report. Bigger picture, ramped up tensions in the Ukraine, have largely offset added supply from Libya, though the oil market will look to China for directional guidance tomorrow, when Q1 GDP data will be released.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales climbed 1.1% in March, and rose 0.7% excluding autos
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed up
FX Action: The dollar firmed up after the better retail sales outcome, taking EUR-USD to session lows of 1.3813, and USD-JPY intra day highs just over 102.00. Equity futures are on session highs, as are Treasury yields.
08:35 EDTFutures move higher following retail sales report
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales Less Autos & Gas data reported
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales less autos data reported
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales data reported
March Retail Sales up 1.1% vs. consensus of 1.0% for the month
08:24 EDTCantor's REITs analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:10 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
U.S. retail sales preview: Retail sales are expected to grow 0.8% in March, while the ex-auto aggregate grows by 0.6%. Forecast risk is upward, as analysts expect a rebound from prior depressed readings thanks to winter storms, etc.. preview for more.
07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTMarket will look to get back to winning ways
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07:09 EDTFDA to hold a public workshop
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.36%, DAX down 0.98%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $104.10, natural gas down 0.02%, gold at $1324 an ounce, and copper up 0.21%.
05:46 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
04:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is consolidating in the mid 101s
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April 13, 2014
19:13 EDTUkraine mobilizing military for antiterrorist operation, WSJ says
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15:46 EDTGlencore Xstrata to sell Las Bambas stake for approximately $5.85B
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09:24 EDTIndustrial Production Manufacturing to be reported at 09:15
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09:24 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
March Consumer Price Index CPI will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
09:24 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
March Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 78.7%
09:24 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTRetail Sales Less Autos & Gas to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
March Retail Sales less autos will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
April 11, 2014
16:35 EDTApril Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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15:40 EDTEarnings Reports: a heavy line up of announcements are ahead
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:10 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: illiquidity will complicate trading with Good Friday
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13:50 EDTAverages remain under pressure
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13:45 EDTFed Chair Yellen will make a couple of appearances next week
Fed Chair Yellen will make a couple of appearances next week, first on Tuesday in a pre-recorded video for the opening of the 2014 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed from 8:45 ET. Then she'll speak again on Wednesday on monetary policy and the economic recovery before the Economics Club of NY from 12:25 ET. Other Fedspeakers include governor Stein on Sunday before the IMF, while governor Tarullo takes part in a regulation panel Monday. Atlanta's Lockhart introduces his branch's conference Tuesday, along with participation by Philly hawk Plosser. Boston Fed dove Rosengren speaks from Maine on the economic outlook, while Minneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota takes Q&A in Fargo. On Wednesday, Lockhart and Stein make additional appearances in Atlanta and Dallas Fed hawk Fisher wraps up with a speech on the outlook from Austin.
13:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: better put activity
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12:45 EDTTreasury Dealer meeting agenda for Apr 24, 25:
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11:45 EDTNASDAQ broke into positive territory
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11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $2.29 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.29 B in notes raging in maturity from May 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered $9.675 B. Treasury gains are eroding as stocks rebound. But the 10-year yield is still about 2 bps lower on the day at 2.627%. Next week the Desk will intervene on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, to purchase between $3.55 B to $4.55 B. The markets will be closed on Good Friday.
10:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish put positioning
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes dated from May 2021 through February 2024. The buyback is supportive for Treasuries, though earlier gains have been pared slightly. The 10-year sector is pacing the rally this moring with the yield down nearly 3 bps to 2.62%.
10:20 EDTThe April Michigan sentiment bounce to 82.6
The April Michigan sentiment bounce to 82.6 more than reversed the March drop to 80.0 from 81.6 in February, as the measure narrowed the gap to the 85.1 cycle-high from last July. Michigan sentiment has enjoyed a recent lift from diminishing weather disruptions, rising stock prices before the most recent drop, and a recovering housing market beyond the winter's big weather-related setbacks. Confidence still faces a headwind from Obamacare, and lingering concerns after last year's mortgage rate spike. Despite today's rise, Michigan sentiment continues to underperform consumption and payrolls. Analysts assume an upward adjustment in today's April reading to the 83 area, given upward revisions in all three months of 2014 of 0.1 in March, 0.4 in February and 0.8 in January, and a 1.8 average monthly boost in 2013. Analysts've seen divergent moves in available April confidence indicators, as they fluctuate around their mid-2013 levels. Analysts expect Consumer confidence to slip to 82.0 from a cycle-high 82.3 in March, versus a slightly lower 82.1 prior cycle-high last June.
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment jumped to 82.6 in the preliminary April read
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Treasury Action: yields backed up from lows on the rebound in U. Michigan sentiment in Apr, as the worst of the winter storm sentiment damage appeared to clear. That gave stocks a leg back up from opening lows and goose the dollar a tad. The T-note yield recovered above 2.62% compared to 5-week lows under 2.61%, though it still appears upwardly challenged.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded up to 1.0983
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: fading the rally?
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09:55 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:45 EDTMarket extends losses after JPMorgan miss
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09:30 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
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09:00 EDTThe 0.5% U.S. March PPI rise with a 0.6% core price increase
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back under the gun
U.S. equities are back under the gun after mixed earnings results in the financial sector, which saw a big miss by JPM and a beat by Wells. JPM profits sank 19% thanks to lower fixed income trading and mortgage revenue declines, knocking its shares over 3% lower, while Wells EPS topped $1.05 vs $0.97 forecasts, with profits up 14%. PPI rose 0.5% in Mar, while core was 0.6%, contributing to the flurry of info digested by investors to round out the week. While the Fed is unlikely alter its taper course after the inflation data, this news could sit a little uncomfortably. The Dow is 54-points lower, S&P is off 6-points and NASDAQ tanked another 17-points after leading losses this week, above earlier lows. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei slumped 2.38% thanks to yen strength and global market weakness, while the Shanghai Comp declined 0.18% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.5% and the German DAX is 1.9% lower. Former "mo-mo" high flyers Tesla and Netflix remain under pressure as the tech slide continues. News that Cisco and Juniper routers picked up the "Heartbleed" virus was not helpful either. IMF meetings are set to launch in DC and up next is U. Michigan sentiment, forecast to rise to 81.0.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up briefly
FX Action: The dollar perked up briefly following the hotter PPI outcome, taking EUR-USD to session lows under1.3865, and USD-JPY up ten points to 101.55.Equity futures continue to move lower, while yields edged slightly higher.
08:43 EDTUBS global paper/forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. PPI (final demand) jumped 0.5% in March with the core up 0.6%
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08:39 EDTUBS healthcare and biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analyst Goodman and Biotech Analyst Roden provide a 1Q14 update and outlook for the Healthcare and Biotech industries on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 11 at 10 am.
08:37 EDTFutures remain lower following producer prices data
Stock futures continue to point to a lower open following the release of the producer prices report. The data showed that prices rose 0.5% in March The core reading, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.6% versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. .
08:36 EDTJPMorgan's strategist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:21 EDTCredit Suisse healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:07 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a press briefing
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08:01 EDTDA Davidson analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Engineering & Construction Analyst Rogers provides an industry update and outlook for the Engineering & Construction sector on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 14 at 11 am.
08:00 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: risk off trading continues with bonds gaining
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:38 EDTThe Atlantic Council hosts a discussion
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 11
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05:49 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
April 10, 2014
22:10 EDTChina's CPI rose at a 2.4% y/y rate in March
China's CPI rose at a 2.4% y/y rate in March (NSA) after the 2.0% rate of growth in February. PPI fell at a 2.3% y/y pace in March after contracting at a 2.0% y/y clip in February. Both reports were in-line with expectations. The government's inflation target is 3.5% for 2014, identical to 2013. But that looks like a stretch, with CPI likely to see a 3.0% average growth rate this year at best.
21:31 EDTWeek of 4/23 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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21:31 EDTWeek of 4/14 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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18:45 EDTBurwell to be nominated as Sebelius replacement, NY Times says
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18:38 EDTSebelius to resign at U.S. health secretary, Bloomberg says
Kathleen Sebelius will resign as U.S. health secretary with an announcement expected tomorrow, reports Bloomberg, citing two people familiar with the decision. Reference Link
18:27 EDTSebelius to resign as U.S. Health Secretary, Bloomberg reports
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTWeek of 4/18 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 3/31 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$37.0B
15:00 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Risk off in techland played right back into the hands of the bond market on Thursday, despite a dive in jobless claims and jump in trade prices, which were quickly forgotten in the melee. Putin continued to play the energy card on Europe, while NATO squirmed about the Russian troop build-up. WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath concurred that the Fed may still be more worried about deflation following up on the more dovish minutes. That contributed to dollar declines that fed right back into an over 2.5% NASDAQ loss at one stage. The bond reopening accordingly went relatively smoothly, leaving long yields near month-lows as a result.
14:30 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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14:28 EDTChina won't launch major stimulus, South China Morning Post says
China will not unveil "strong" economic stimulus measures in response to weak trade data announced today, China Premier Li Keqiang said, according to The South China Morning Post. Instead, Beijing will respond to "temporary fluctuations in the economy" by "promoting healthy development," the newspaper quoted the premier as saying. He added that the government is confident that the economy will remain "in a reasonable range," South China Morning Post stated. Reference Link
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are loitering near lows
Treasury Action: yields are loitering near lows following the sharp narrowing in the budget gap, which was deeper than expected, and certainly didn't hurt the bond bid today. The 10-year yield nosed up from 2.614% session lows earlier to the 2.637% area after toppling from 2.687% session highs with the NASDAQ slump. Stocks are attempting to put in a floor for the day after tumbling over 2.5%, as is USD-JPY.
14:10 EDTTreasury reported a $36.9 budget deficit for March
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14:03 EDTTreasury Budget data reported
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19:34 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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19:34 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
March Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 2.0% for the month
13:54 EDTMarkets deep in the red
The major equity indexes are sharply lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq logging the session's largest losses, trading down more than 2.5%, while the S&P and Dow are both lower by more than 1%. After two straight sessions of gains, the averages opened lower and downside momentum has not relented during the as the indexes are currently near their lows. Market internals are very negative, with decliners leading advancers by 3:1 and down volume leading up volume by 4:1. Crude oil prices are flat, and gold is higher by 1.1%. The Dow is down 200 points, the S&P 500 is down 29 points, and the Nasdaq is down 111 points.
13:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: call liquidation
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY based at 101.33
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13:15 EDTTreasury $13 B 30-year auction was solid
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: a solid bond reopening
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12:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview: this is a difficult sale to handicap
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12:25 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans said the Fed tries to pay attention
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12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy flows in 5s
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11:25 EDTNASDAQ is back under pressure
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11:12 EDTNATO says Russian military built-up, on ready at Ukraine border, WSJ reports
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $18 B 5-year TIPS sale for next Thursday
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $3.22 B in Treasury notes
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: vol was bid on 5s
Treasury Option Action: vol was bid on 5s according to sources, who cited a purchase of 5k in 119.5 straddles on Jun 5s, thought to be the work of a left coast fund. Others noted bearish demand for 10k in 141.4/143 put spreads on Jun bunds. Jun 5s are 4-ticks firmer near 119-182.
10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY tested 102 earlier
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10:35 EDTPIMCO's Gross asks: "Am I Really Such a Jerk?"
PIMCO's Gross asks: "Am I Really Such a Jerk?" in a Businessweek article, as he licks his wounds following the departure of his CEO and investor withdrawals, quipping "at least my wife loves me." Self-deprecation has been his foil for criticism in the past and he appears to be wielding it again heavily in this article, which dwells on the cult of personality.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending April 4
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.75 B to $3.5 B in notes
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10:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is building
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is building now that key events are out of the way. Issues are likely to be readily absorbed too, in the bullish aftermath from the FOMC. Chesapeake Energy plans a $3 B 5-year FRN, an 8-year, and a 12-year senior note sale. State Bank of India has a benchmark 5- and 10-year. Also, FHLB will price a $3 B 3-year today. Ventas Relaty is offering $300 M in 3s and $400 M in 10s. Turkiye Garanti is offering benchmark sized 5-year notes. Suam Finance announced a $500 M 10-year and Endesa plans a $400 M 10-year.
10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly heavy overnight flows
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10:07 EDTAverages lower despite dip in jobless claims
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD held 1.0850 support
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09:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
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09:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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09:25 EDTThe U.S. trade price report revealed surprisingly big core price gains
The U.S. trade price report revealed surprisingly big core price gains in March that extended trade price firmness in the prior two months, alongside a big food export price surge and a climb in petroleum import prices that followed big gains for both in February. For 2014 overall, import prices ex-petroleum and export prices ex-agriculture have posted surprisingly large respective year-to-date gains of 1.2% and 1.6%. This follows respective 2013 declines of 1.2% and 0.3%, near-zero figures of 0.1% and -0.3% in 2012, and declines for both in Q4 of 2011. Analysts saw big average respective monthly gains over the twenty-six months before that of 0.3% and 0.5%. The trade price firming in 2014 may reflect some dissipation of the global growth weakness of the last two years that allowed energy price declines and a flat food price trend, as did the 3% rate of climb for the dollar in 2012 and 2013. For the remaining March inflation reports, analysts expect respective headline and core price gains of 0.3% and 0.1% for CPI, 0.2% and 0.1% for PCE chain prices, and 0.2% for both for PPI.
09:15 EDTFed getting worried about low inflation
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09:00 EDTThe 32k U.S. initial claims drop to a cycle-low 300k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices rose 0.6% in March with exports up 0.8%
U.S. import prices rose 0.6% in March with exports up 0.8%, both stronger than expected. The 0.9% surge in February import prices was not revised. Petroleum prices inched up 0.1% after a 4.7% climb in February (revised from 4.4%). Excluding petroleum, prices rose 0.6%. Strength was in Foods/beverages, up 3.7%. Industrial supplies prices were up 0.9%. Import prices with China dipped 0.1% versus the 0.2% February gain. Prices with Canada were up 1.7%. The 0.6% gain in February export prices was revised to 0.7% (and January's 0.2% gain was nudged up to 0.3%). Agricultural prices rose 2.7% after a 1.4% rebound (revised from 1.7%). Excluding ag, prices were up 0.5%. Foods/beverages were up 2.7%, with industrial supply prices up 1.2% after a 1.7% surge (revised from 1.6%).
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 32k to 300k in the week ended April 5
U.S. initial jobless claims fell 32k to 300k in the week ended April 5 from a revised 332k at the end of March (was 326k). This was the lowest print since May of 2007. The 4-week average was 316.25k versus 321k previously (revised from 319.5k). Continuing claims fell 62k to 2,776k in the week ended March 29, from a revised 2.838k previously (was 2,836k).
08:38 EDTFutures move slightly lower following claims data
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported
Week of 4/5 Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Average at 316.25K
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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08:31 EDTImport Prices data reported.
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08:15 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended April 5 are expected to see a 3k increase to 329k (median 320k). The 16k U.S. initial claims bounce to 326k in the final week of March reversed the 13k drop to 310k (was 311k) from 323k in the BLS survey week, as claims oscillate well below the lofty 349k figure at the end of February. The March tightening in claims after the February overshoot likely reflects a March unwind of prior weather distortions.
07:55 EDTBank of England keeps Bank Rate at 0.5%
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07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08% after a 0.07% close Wednesday. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.08% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dipped to 0.08850% after edging up to 0.08860% yesterday. The 1-week rate rose to 0.12045% versus 0.11925%. The 3-month rate dropped to 0.22705% from 0.22755%. And the 12-month rate was fell to 0.54850% from 0.55300%. In the repo market, it's the current 5-year note that is special at -0.13%.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bond markets remain in rally mode
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07:39 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a discussion with Christine Lagarde
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07:36 EDTFutures quiet following yesterday’s big advance
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07:35 EDTCFA Society of St. Louis to hold a discussion
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07:33 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion on global monetary policy
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07:31 EDTSEC to hold a committee meeting
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07:26 EDTNYSSA to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTEvercore to hold a conference
Evercore Mini-Conference: Pragmatic Advertising is being held in New York on April 10.
06:55 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:34 EDTChina's exports, imports unexpectedly dropped last month, NY Times says
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 10
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05:48 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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05:30 EDTMarch China trade data may not be as weak as they seem
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The USD came under pressure against the AUD
FX Update: The USD came under pressure against the AUD, which rallied on a stellar Australian jobs report, the JPY, which gained on hawkish sounding BoJ-speak, and the EUR, which extended to a 17-day high of 1.3870 in the early Asia session before settling under 1.3850. In the mix was China's March trade report, where unexpected weakness in exports and a sharp drop in imports fed concerns about economic slowdown. The saw Asia stocks give most intraday gains. Japanese stocks underperformed as the yen strengthened after BoJ's Miyao said that Japan’s economic recovery is becoming more broad-based, which further eroded expectations for further monetary stimulus. Japan's machinery orders for February also fell 8.8% m/m, below expectations, and China Premier Li downplayed the need for fresh stimulus. AUD-USD had made a new four-month peak to 0.9440 following the solid Australian jobs report, which showed a 18.1k headline gain and a dip in the jobless rate to 5.8%, but was knocked back to the 0.9400 area by the China trade numbers.
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