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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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October 31, 2014
10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded over the 1.1300 level
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10:40 EDTBarclay's index month-end duration extensions
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10:20 EDTThe October Michigan sentiment climb
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10:20 EDTMinneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota defended his dissent
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10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rose to 86.9 in October
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: still in a holding pattern
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10:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar showed little reaction
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago ISM manufacturing index surged to 66.2 in October
U.S. Chicago ISM manufacturing index surged to 66.2 in October, up 5.7 points and more than erasing the 3.8 point decline to 60.5 in September. This is the highest reading since last October. The index has been above the 60 mark in 6 of the last 7 months.
09:55 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded on Chicago ISM
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09:52 EDTMorgan Stanley economist and strategist hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief U.S. Economist Reinhart and Chief Municipal Strategist Zezas discuss the November 4, 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 3 at 11 am.
09:47 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update from Washington, D.C. on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 31 at 11 am.
09:44 EDTS&P opens in record territory after BOJ stimulus
Stock futures were sharply higher throughout the pre-market trading session following the Bank of Japan stimulus measures that lifted markets around the world. The futures action led to a higher open for the broader market, pushing the S&P to record territory and the Nasdaq to multi-year highs. The next economic reports due out this morning include the Chicago PMI report and the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading. In early trading, the Dow is up 145 points, the Nasdaq is up 59 points and the S&P is up 18 points.
09:40 EDTChicago ISM preview:
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09:40 EDTU. Michigan sentiment preview:
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY plowed through the 112.00 mark
FX Action: USD-JPY plowed through the 112.00 mark, ramping up to 112.15 highs, a new seven-year peak. EUR-USD meanwhile, was pushed easily under 1.2500, to 1.2486 lows, levels not seen since August of 2012. Both pairings have pulled back from their extremes, as the initial surge of stop orders run their course.
09:20 EDTThe 0.7% U.S. Q3 ECI rise beat estimates
The 0.7% U.S. Q3 ECI rise beat estimates, following the same big 0.7% Q2 rise but lean 0.3% cycle-low rise in Q1, as ECI gains this year are moving above the 0.4%-0.5% ECI gains in each of the nine quarters ending in Q4 of last year. Analysts have a 0.6% average quarterly rise thus far in 2014 that adds to the gradual cyclical uptrend in labor cost growth from late-2009 recession-lows. The y/y ECI rise climbed to the same 2.2% cycle-high seen back in Q2 of 2011, from 2.0% in Q2, 1.8% in Q1, versus a 1.4% cycle-low in Q4 of 2009. For y/y component increases, analysts saw a 2.1% cycle-high y/y Q3 wage gain that followed a 1.8% Q2 rise and a 1.6% Q1 increase, versus a cycle-low 1.4% wage rise in Q4 of 2011. The y/y benefit cost gain slipped to 2.4% in Q3 from 2.5% in Q2, and 2.1% in Q1, versus a 3.6% cycle-high in Q2 of 2011 and a 1.5% cycle-low in Q3 and Q4 of 2009.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities romped higher
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09:05 EDTFX Action: Broad-based USD buying has resumed
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09:05 EDTToday's U.S. income report revealed a September undershoot
Today's U.S. income report revealed a September undershoot for both income and spending after modest boosts back in July that left a down-tilt in the Q3 figures around the disappointing quarterly averages in yesterday's GDP report. Income rose just 0.2% in September with 0.2% declines in both nominal and "real" consumption, with spending hits from retail sales declines alongside a service consumption rise as analysts further reverse a big July weather-hit. The 0.2% September income rise undershot the 0.5% hours-worked rise with a flat hourly earnings figure in the last jobs report, while the 0.2% September consumption drop tracked the 0.3% headline retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto decline. Analysts lowered our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (was 2.8%), following yesterday's 3.5% Q3 growth figure. Analysts lowered our Q4 real consumption growth forecast to 2.4% (was 2.7%), following the disappointing 1.8% Q3 climb. Analysts expect lean personal income growth of just 3.3% in Q4 with a 2.9% pace for disposable income, following higher prior respective growth rates of 4.2% and 4.0% in Q3,and 6.3% and 6.8% in Q2.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD ran up from 1.1180
FX Action: USD-CAD ran up from 1.1180 into the Canadian GDP data, to over 1.1250 in the aftermath, where the marginally softer outcome saw buyers step in. Monday's 1.1255 high is in sight now, with the 1.1300 level set to move back into the cross hairs on a break of the level. Gold is down nearly 3%, while WTI crude is now down flirting with the $80/bbl mark, both likely to weigh further on the CAD.
08:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied mid-range
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08:45 EDTU.S. ECI climbed another 0.7% in Q3
U.S. ECI climbed another 0.7% in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and more than double Q1's 0.3%. And it's up 2.2% y/y versus 2.0% y/y in Q2. Compensation increased 0.8% last quarter after a 0.6% increase previously, with benefits up 0.6%, a little cooler compared to the 1.0% Q2 surge.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled back fractionally
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08:40 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.2% in September, while spending fell 0.2%
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08:37 EDTFutures continue to suggest a sharply higher open
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08:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down nearly 1.0%,
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08:34 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI data reported
Employment Cost Index ECI up 0.7% vs. consensus of 0.5% for the quarter
08:10 EDTU.S. employment cost index preview:
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08:10 EDTU.S. personal income preview:
U.S. personal income preview: personal income is expected to grow 0.4% in September (median 0.3%), while consumption should be unchanged (median 0.1%). For the PCE chain price data, analysts expect a -0.1% rate for September with an unchanged rate for the core, which compares to CPI forecasts of -0.1% and 0.2%. for more detail.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:19 EDTWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund volatility flat into Bank of Japan stimulus
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund overall option implied volatility of 20 compares to its 26-week average of 19 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement into Bank of Japan significantly expanding its stimulus program.
07:17 EDTCurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust volatility flat into Bank of Japan stimulus
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07:15 EDTFutures soar on Japan monetary stimulus
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07:14 EDTFDA to hold a public hearing
The FDA holds Day 2 of "Development & Regulation of Abuse-Deterrent Opioid Medications" in Silver Spring, Maryland on October 31 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:05 EDTFX Update: The yen dove sharply on the unexpected BoJ easing
FX Update: The yen dove sharply on the unexpected BoJ easing, which saw USD-JPY spike to a six-year peak at 111.67, so far, well up on yesterday's 109.26 NY closing level. EUR-JPY rallied by over two big figures to a five-week highs above 140, and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The BoJ announcement of an expansion in QQE came by a tight vote of 5-4 and was a complete shock to markets. Aside from causing the dive in the yen, the Nikkei stock index surged by nearly 5% and the 10-year JGB yield tumbled to new cycle lows (in the case of stocks there was also a report by Reuters, citing sources, that Japan will give approval to the government pension fund's plan to increase equity holdings). Elsewhere, the dollar traded generally firm. EUR-USD ground out a fresh three-week low at 1.2541 before the euro managed a muted rebound on the flash Oct Eurozone CPI estimate, which nudged to 0.4% y/y form 0.3% in September.
06:35 EDTEuro zone October inflation was in-line with expectations, Reuters says
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05:53 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
05:51 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 31
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05:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has seen a fresh rally
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04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading in the low 111s
FX Action: USD-JPY is trading in the low 111s after clocking a fresh six-year peak at 111.53 in early London trade earlier. The surprise BoJ easing lit a fire under the pair during Tokyo trade and sent JGB yields to major-trend lows and saw the Nikkei stock index close with a stellar 4.8% advance. The earlier high at 111.53 is now an interim resistance level ahead of 112.00, which is reportedly the next option barrier of note. Obvious support levels are some way off. Analysts have 110.00-110.09 as a support region now, which encompasses the former cycle peak, ahead of 109.47-50. Analysts continue to target 115.0 on the back of divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan.
03:15 EDTFX Action: The yen dove sharply on shock BoJ easing
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03:04 EDTWeek of 11/3 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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03:04 EDTWeek of 11/12 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
02:50 EDTThe has BoJ shocked markets with expansion in annual asset purchases
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01:10 EDTBoJ surprised as it announced an expansion in QQE
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October 30, 2014
20:55 EDTJapan's jobless rate rose to 3.6% in September
Japan's jobless rate rose to 3.6% in September (seasonally adjusted) from 3.5% in August, in line with median forecasts, while the job-applications ratio sank to 1.09 from 1.10 as well for the first time since May 2011, suggesting some shrinkage in labor market momentum. However, the number of new job offers rose 0.5% in September, up 6.3% vs a year-ago.
16:49 EDTWeek of 11/8 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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14:45 EDTCanada August GDP Preview
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14:35 EDTTreasury Action: the market should turn more consolidative
Treasury Action: the market should turn more consolidative after recent gyrations and ahead of next week's key data releases which culminate with the nonfarm payroll numbers (Friday). With supply out of the way, month-end flows may give curve flattening trades a little extra nudge into the weekend. Also trading is likely to be increasingly sensitive to incoming data as the FOMC continued to remind of it's "data dependent" policy stance -- though the FOMC has been hypocritical on this, consider the inconsistencies with the "considerable time" commitment and the unemployment rate threshold. Tomorrow's calendar includes September income, consumption, October consumer sentiment (final), and Q3 ECI, along with some Fedspeak from SF's Williams. Next week's data also includes the October ISMs, the ADP, vehicle sales, September construction spending, trade, and productivity, several of which will help fine tune Q3 GDP outlooks. Also of considerable interest next week will be Fedspeak (Fisher, Kocherlakota, Lacker, Rosengren, Evans, and Mester). The outcome of the mid-term elections will also be important, though probably won't have an immediate impact on prices.
14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has moved to trend highs of 109.43
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14:05 EDTJapanese equity futures ramped higher
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14:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: and now a ratio call butterfly
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
Treasury Action: yields steadied below highs in the wake of the mixed-to-damp results on the 7-year auction, which tailed, was light on the cover and ok on the indirect bid. The current 7-year yield poked back over 2.0% from the 1.99% area earlier, compared to session lows of 1.98%, Asian highs of 2.036% and the award rate of 2.018%.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $29 B 7-year auction wasn't great
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13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has largely taken a breather
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13:05 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview:
Treasury 7-year auction preview: the auction could benefit from the fact the FOMC is out of the way, even if the result was less bullish than many had hoped. But while the positive momentum in the market on the heels of the rally in German Bunds could make for a decent auction, especially given the widening spread of Treasuries to other core sovereigns, the bid cover is likely to be below par. The big redemptions this week and month-end flows could also support, along with a tendency toward curve flatteners. On the other hand, negatives for the sale include the lack of concession, with the 2.005% bid on the wi looking a bit rich. There's also no QE of course, so the intermediate sector of the curve is lacking a big buyer that's been in place for the last few years. There isn't a large short base either. The September auction garnered a 2.48 cover (2.56 average) and a 48.3% indirect (43.8% average). Direct bidders accepted 10.0% last month, while primary dealers took 41.7%.
12:05 EDTU.S. equities recouped some losses
U.S. equities recouped some losses with the help of a substantial rebound in European bourses from session lows prior to the U.S. GDP report. The Euro Stoxx 50 is nearly back to unchanged after down about 1.5% prior to the U.S. data, while peripheral indices are in shallow negative territory after falling roughly 2.0% earlier (after bank regulators warned that the stress tests wouldn't support a lending boost). That is a big reversal, especially considering think tank report that the ECB may prefer to rely on the TLTRO for now thanks to the firm dollar, though weaker German HICP inflation may have put potential ECB QE back on the agenda again. In the states, the Dow is 0.8% firmer, while the S&P gained 0.3% and NASDAQ is still 0.15% lower after the 3.5% gain in advance Q3 GDP. Visa is still the top gainer in the Dow at an extraordinary +9.1% following its upbeat earnings report and plans to charge banks higher fees, followed by Coca Cola +1% and Pfizer +0.8%, while on the downside are Intel -3.3% and Microsoft -1.3%, which seem to be behind the tech sector underperformance.
11:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: growing open interest
Euro$ interest rate options: growing open interest in Short December 87 puts just increased by another 10k, though this one may be a liquidation according to sources. In addition, there was a bearish purchase of 10k in Green December 75/77 put spreads and 3k in Green December 77/80 put spreads. The short-dated rate futures are recovering with the rest of the rate complex as the Fed rate hike doesn't seem so imminent after all in the bright daylight following the FOMC, especially with European fixed income leaning the other way. The deferreds are trading 0.5-5.5 ticks higher now.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $54 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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10:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are extending gains with the long end leading
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 24
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10:10 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook: the $29 B sale completes this week's supply
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09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD found a base into the 1.1165 level
FX Action: USD-CAD found a base into the 1.1165 level, where standing bids were noted. The pairing has since bounced back over 1.1185, though selling interest at 1.1200 is reportedly on the rise. Equities and oil prices should help determine direction from here, where currently, weaker U.S. stock futures, and softer WTI prices should limit USD-CAD downside.
09:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a variety of flows
Euro$ interest rate options: a variety of flows have been in the mix since the Fed statement and follow-up firmer GDP print. Among them, a bullish purchase of 5k in Green November 83/85 call spreads and a sale of 6k in Blue March 72/75 strangles (vol). In block trade, there were some 80k in Blue Dec 70, 71, 72, and 73 puts traded. Overnight there was a bearish purchase of 15k in Short January 88/90 put spreads as well. The December 2014 contract is flat at 99.76, but the deferreds are 1-5 ticks firmer out the curve despite the evident concern about the Fed's tightening trajectory after yesterday's statement.
09:30 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not discuss monetary policy or the economy
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09:25 EDTU.S. GDP growth beat estimates with a 3.5% Q3 clip
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities have remained soggy
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially rallied
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08:45 EDTU.S. GDP growth slowed to a 3.5% pace in Q3
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields flinched higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 3k to 287k in the week ended October 25
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 3k to 287k in the week ended October 25, from a revised 284k previously (was 283k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 281k from 281.25k (revised from 281k). Continuing claims rebounded 29k to 2.384k in the week ended October 18 versus a revised xk previously (was 2,351k).
08:34 EDTFutures remain slightly lower following economic reports
Stock futures remain slightly lower following the release of the jobless claims, GDP, and personal consumption reports. There were 285K initial claims versus the expected 285K while continuing claims came in at 2.38M versus the expected 2.35M. GDP rose 3.5% for the third quarter versus expectations of a 3.0% increase. Personal consumption rose 1.8% in the third quarter versus expectations of a 1.9% gain.
08:34 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:15 EDTU.S. Q3 GDP preview:
U.S. Q3 GDP preview: analysts expect GDP to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q3, following the 4.6% pace of Q2. Forecast risk is downward, however, given potential for an inventory drawdown after Q2's buildup. Among the components, final sales should expand at a 3.2% clip that matches the Q2 rate. Consumption is seen slowing to 2.0% in Q3 from 2.5% in Q2. Fixed investment growth is pegged at 7.3% in Q, following 9.5% in Q2. Equipment spending should expand at an 11.9% clip, from 11.2% in Q2, while Government spending is seen contracting at a 0.3% rate in Q3, after a 1.7% Q2 pop. preview for more.
08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: a curve flattening trade in Treasuries
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded to lows of 81.20
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07:31 EDTCFA Institute of St Louis to hold a discussion
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07:26 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold a summit
National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession is being held in Washington, D.C. on October 30 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:25 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen provides welcome remarks at summit
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07:23 EDTFDA to hold a public meeting
Public Meeting to discuss the development, assessment and regulation of abuse-deterrent formulations of opioid medications is being held in Silver Spring, Maryland on October 30 at 8:30 am.
07:22 EDTFutures suggest slightly lower open for broader market
U.S. equity futures are indicating a slightly lower open. The Fed concluded its two day FOMC meeting yesterday and said, as expected, that it would end QE3. The central bank reiterated that rates would remain low "for a considerable time.”. However, the market did not anticipate the FOMC's statement that rates could rise sooner if warranted by data. The market sold off initially but pared its losses heading into the close. Investors will continue to digest the Fed’s statement, the bevy of earnings reports, and economic data scheduled to be released later this morning
07:19 EDTThe Economist to hold a conference
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07:18 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended post-FOMC gains
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended post-FOMC gains
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06:37 EDTExecutives, hedge funds expect more activism in 2015, NY Times says
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05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 30
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05:53 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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04:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has extended to fresh three-week highs
FX Action: USD-JPY has extended to fresh three-week highs above 109.25 as post-FOMC dollar strength continues. The Oct-1 six-year high at 110.09 is back view. Support is marked at 108.70 and 108.20. Resistance is at 109.90 and 110.09. Analysts remain USD-JPY bullish, anticipating an eventual move on 115 on the back of divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan.
03:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended post-FOMC gains
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October 29, 2014
16:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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16:15 EDTThe Fed's QE3 - Dead but Not Forgotten:
The Fed's QE3 - Dead but Not Forgotten: The Fed wound down QE3 on schedule, and did not extend the program beyond the end of October. The "considerable time" reference for low rates was retained, but the reference to the labor market was updated to reflect progress, amid diminished concerns about underutilization of labor resources. The mix left the markets with an upbeat but slightly more hawkish impression, though none the wiser about just when the Fed will kick-start the tightening cycle.
16:00 EDTFed funds futures plunged lower on the FOMC statement
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15:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the tweaks in the FOMC statement don't say anything new
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields shot to highs after the FOMC
Treasury Action: yields shot to highs after the FOMC allowed QE3 to expire as planned, while warming up to improved labor market conditions and also retaining "considerable time". The T-note yield cleared 2.36% from the 2.33% area, well up from session lows of 2.27%. The just issued 5-year yield ramped up to the 1.60% area from the 1.567% award rate on the new notes, confirming why the bond market was so cautious on getting caught holding that paper into the Fed decision. Meanwhile, stocks are mostly lower, though they could overcome their QE disappointment on the notion that the Fed is getting more confident about the recovery. The dollar has broken to session highs.
14:17 EDTFed ends bond purchases, still sees low rates for some time
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14:15 EDTThe FOMC: QE3 is dead as the Fed cut the remaining $15 B
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14:14 EDTWeek of 11/7 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
14:05 EDTFed says underutilization of labor resources 'gradually diminishing'
The Fed said in its statement, "On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable."
14:04 EDTFed sees 'substantial improvement' in labor market outlook
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14:03 EDTFed sees fund rate between 0% and 0.25% for 'considerable time'
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14:00 EDTFederal Reserve ends monthly bond buying this month
14:00 EDTT-Minus 10 and counting:
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13:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
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13:45 EDTFX Action: Perhaps some pre-FOMC jitters setting in
FX Action: Perhaps some pre-FOMC jitters setting in as USD-JPY slips from session highs of 108.17, back into 108.05. The modest dip reportedly came on light volume, and can likely be attributed to last minute position pairing into the 14:00 EDT announcement.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields blew out in the belly
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12:50 EDTTreasury 5-year preview: a sloppy auction is the general expectation
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12:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain elevated
Treasury Action: yields remain elevated ahead of the upcoming 5-year auction and the following FOMC announcement. The softness is mostly a lack of buying, according to sources, rather than outright selling, though there's also come concession being made ahead of the offering. Technicals have also turned a bit bearish too with the 10-year yield rising through the 2.30% level. However, the pricing in this very low volume trade isn't giving us much information.
12:20 EDTFX Action: the dollar has retained a softer bias
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $15 B 2-year FRN was disappointing
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11:10 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
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11:00 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $82.56
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 24
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10:26 EDTWallachBeth Capital biotech analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analyst Ai, along with a consultant, provides an update on Hepatitis C on an Analyst/industry conference call to be held on October 29 at 10:30 am.
10:22 EDTBarclays holds an analyst/industry conference call on the U.S. midterm elections
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10:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields are getting jumpy again
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09:36 EDTMarket opens quietly ahead of Fed announcement
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09:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning is still doing the rounds in front of the FOMC decision. These included a purchase of 3k in Short November 88/90/91 put butterflies, 2.5k in Short December 88/90/91 put butterflies, 2k in Short December 90/92 put spreads and 10k in Blue December 73 puts (covered at 97.545 with 30 delta). Sources also note heavy open interest in Short December puts, ranging from 85-92 puts and totaling over 1.8 M in the mid-curve option complexes. The December 2014 contract is flat at 99.76, while the deferreds are 0.5-2.0 ticks lower.
09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD largely shrugged off
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09:10 EDTFOMC preview: the Fed resumed its meeting
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities are decidedly mixed
U.S. equities are decidedly mixed ahead of the Fed statement after social media stocks hit a wall following weak revenue growth posted by Facebook after the close. The Dow is 9-points higher, S&P fell 2-points and NASDAQ is off 7-points in pre-open action. In Asia, the N-225 closed 1.46% higher after firmer than expected Japan industrial production, while core Europe is mostly firmer outside of the weaker periphery. Facebook shed nearly 8% after a miss on Q4 sales and also announcing plans to sharply increase spending and R&D. Gilead Sciences sank 2.5% after an earnings miss and sales shortfall on its Hep-C drug Sovaldi. Orbital Sciences also slumped over 13.5% after one of its private rockets exploded upon liftoff. But U.S. Steel rallied over 7% after strong earnings and sales. Outside of the press-conference-free FOMC decision there's not much else on the calendar today.
08:30 EDTFDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion to hold a meeting
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08:25 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Preview
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08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 1.0%
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 1.0% at $82.27 in early trade, after ranging between $81.44, and $82.37 overnight. Some short positions appear to have been pared into this afternoon's FOMC announcement, where despite the likelihood of an end to QE, a dovish statement could result in some pressure on the dollar, supportive of crude prices.
07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 6.6%
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed amid mixed markets overseas with Asian sovereigns mostly lower and European bonds mostly in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just under 2.30%. Stocks had a solid bid following Tuesday's gains on Wall Street, underpinned too by earnings beats. U.S. equity futures are little changed to lower after disappointing news from Facebook which projected the slowest growth in revenue since Q1 2013. Overnight data showed a 26.3% y/y drop in German exports to Russia. U.K. lending data came in below forecast, though Japanese industrial production rebounded 2.7% last month. The markets now await the FOMC announcement at 14:00 ET, though it might not be that much of a price mover. The other items on the calendar today include the $35 B 5-year and $15 B 2-year FRN auctions. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 6.6% in the week ended October 24. Earnings reports come from Visa, Kraft Foods, Hershey, LG Electronics, Dream Works, Sodastream, JDS Uniphase, Phillips 66, Metlife, Ralph Lauren, Revlon, Hyatt Hotels, Barrick Gold, Baidu, and Noble.
07:24 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:20 EDTFX Update: The major currencies saw limited movement
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07:03 EDTFutures quiet ahead of FOMC statement
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05:52 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
03:10 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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October 28, 2014
20:25 EDTJapan industrial production rose 2.7% in September
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Commentary:
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13:15 EDTTreasury's 2-year auction was on the soft side
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied below highs
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12:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
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12:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: outlooks are mostly constructive
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12:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: selling of volatility
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $34 B 4-week bill sale was pretty well received
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched nearly three-week lows
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11:15 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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10:30 EDTFed will stay on course according to WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath
Fed will stay on course according to WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath in his "Grand Central" blog, in a not very inspiring preview that notes that outside of some improvement in the labor sector, the economy has been more stable than the financial markets in the inter-meeting period. The yield on the T-note is about 34 basis points lower near 2.26% and inflation expectations as measured by TIPS have fallen to 2.20% from 2.38%. And the dollar has increased about 1.5% on aggregate, while crude oil prices have fallen about 14%, and equities are 2% lower. Taken together this points toward "some downward pressure on inflation" and, therefore, "a steady Fed that stays on course to end its bond-buying program and tries to avoid sending loud signals about the outlook for interest rates." That doesn't diverge much from market expectations.
10:25 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the much stronger confidence data, taking USD-JPY back over 108.10, where it was in front of the durables report earlier, and EUR-USD back under 1.2730. Equities continue in green territory, as yields edge up to session highs.
10:20 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence surge to a 94.5 seven-year high
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence climbed to 94.5 in October
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields ramped back to highs
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10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered partially
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09:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish demand
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09:50 EDTFOMC preview: the Fed began its 2-day meeting
FOMC preview: the Fed began its 2-day meeting. and will announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 2:00 ET. There is no press conference. The Fed is widely expected to cut the remaining $15 B in the QE3 asset purchase program. The FOMC is also generally expected to maintain its "considerable period" language which has been a key in forward guidance since September 2012. And that should keep the markets confident that the first rate hike is still a ways off. As for the other key phrase, "significant underutilization of labor resources," it could retained, despite the improved employment situation, as various components in the LMCI are still underperforming. And lastly, on inflation, analysts suspect the statement will reiterate that it is still below target, but expectations are stable. The Fed is not likely to mention the dollar specifically, even though it will obviously be part of the discussion, as was noted in the last FOMC Minutes. Dissents from Plosser and/or Fisher would not be a surprise. The Cleveland Fed's Mester could shift to a dissent as well. But note that the 2015 voting rotation is very dovish with Evans, Williams, Lockhart, and Lacker on board.
09:50 EDTU.S. consumer confidence preview:
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09:35 EDTMarket opens higher despite disappointing economic data
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09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped further
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09:05 EDTThe U.S. durables report slightly undershot estimates
The U.S. durables report slightly undershot estimates with declines in orders both with and without transportation, and with a larger than expected transportation drop attributable to a decline in vehicle assemblies despite a small Boeing orders bounce. The equipment orders and shipments data also modestly underperformed to leave a slight negative spin for GDP growth prospects overall, though inventories rose alongside a flat shipments trend. Analysts still expect 2.6% Q3 GDP growth with a 12% growth clip for the equipment component, following respective Q2 rates of 4.6% and 11.2%. Inventories look poised to subtract $19 B from Q3 GDP growth, following a $49.6 B boost in Q2 that left an unsustainable $84.8 B accumulation rate. Analysts expect September increases of 0.3% for both factory and total inventories, given today's 0.4% factory durable inventory rise. Analysts assume a 0.6% September factory orders drop with a flat factory shipments figure, given an assumed flat nondurables figure that faces downward pressure from price declines.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities regained some composure
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09:00 EDTU.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price index preview:
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar broke sharply lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September
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08:36 EDTFutures pare gains following durable goods report
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up better than $2.00
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08:25 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded 0.3%
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08:15 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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08:15 EDTU.S. durable goods orders preview:
U.S. durable goods orders preview: durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.5% in September (median 0.7%) vs -18.4% in August, with shipments seen remaining unchanged. Inventories are expected to grow by 0.5% in September, which would leave the I/S ratio up to 1.65 from 1.64. Forecast risk is slightly upward, as there should be some recovery from the August plunge. preview for more.
07:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted a moderate gain
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07:48 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted a moderate gain
FX Update: The dollar posted a moderate gain in generally subdued trading conditions as market participants hunker down ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement in the absence of fresh leads. The SEK was the main exception as the currency dropped sharply after the Riksbank cut interest rates to zero from 0.25%, below the median forecast of 0.05%. This is the second quarter point cut in three months, prompted by the threat of deflation in Sweden. EUR-SEK spiked to a near four-month high at 9.3482 as the crown 'officially' became a funding currency choice for carry trades. EUR-USD, meanwhile, dipped to 1.2684, though remained above yesterday's low and near to the 20-day moving average at 1.2394. USD-JPY recovered the 108.00 handle amid the firmer tone in the dollar and despite Japanese retail sales coming in at +2.7% m/m in September, which was well up on the median expectation for +0.8% and encouraging news given the impact the sales tax hike has had on the sector since it was implemented in April. However, a generally gloomy set of rhetoric out of officialdom offset, with IMF's Shinohara, for instance, remarking that 'Abenomics' is failing to turn the Japanese economy around.
07:36 EDTFOMC to hold a two day meeting
FOMC Meeting is being held in Washington, D.C. on October 28-29 with a rate decision to be announced on October 29.
07:25 EDTMarket appears ready to extend its recent gains
U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as the market looks ready to extend its most recent winning streak. Solid earnings reports and firmer oil prices have led investors to bid for stocks in the early going. Investors will also be examining several economic data points for clues about the economy's outlook. Due to be released today are the durable goods orders report, the Case/Shiller home prices report, and a consumer confidence reading.
07:23 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTUBS to hold a conference
Equities Quantitative Investment Conference is being held in New York on October 28.
07:20 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
5th Annual China Investment Conference is being held in Hong Kong on October 28-30.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 28
Globex S&P futures are recently up 10.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.38%, DAX up 1.46%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $80.92, natural gas up 0.34%, gold at $1227 an ounce, and copper up 0.42%.
05:53 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:15 EDTFX Update: Markets have been subdued ahead of the FOMC meet
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October 27, 2014
21:35 EDTBoJ's Kuroda: the positive cycle remains intact
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21:00 EDTJapan's N-225 reversed into the red
Japan's N-225 reversed into the red after initially ticking higher at the open following the relatively upbeat Japan retail sales figures, accompanied by a failed probe by USD-JPY of 108.00 before pulling back below. Note, Japan Finance Minister Aso subsequently suggested the government was considering compiling a new economic support package after considering the July-September economic data, when asked about whether the government would confirm in December a follow-up sales tax hike next year. Therein lies the rub, as another package could be designed to offset the tax shift, rather than see it abandoned.
20:15 EDTJapan retail sales surged 2.3% y/y in September
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17:14 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 10:00
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:05 EDTTreasury Action: the markets were in a holding pattern today
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14:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a number of issues are on the calendar today
U.S. corporate bond update: a number of issues are on the calendar today, but they are being readily digested. PNC Bank has a 1.25 B 2-trancher, including 5- and 10-year notes. Procter & Gamble has a $1 B 5-year fixed, and floating deal. TIAA is offering benchmark sized 5- and 10-year paper. And Tri-State Generation is selling $250 M in 10s and $250 M in 30s. Issuance for the month totals $75.25 B.
13:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain slightly lower on the day
Treasury Action: yields remain slightly lower on the day, as do stocks. The markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The 10-year rate is hovering just over 2.25%. Many analysts/strategists are touting curve steepening trades at the long end of the curve given yields are near the richest levels of the year, now that QE has ended, and as they are forecasting decent gains in the economy and a subsequent pick-up in price pressures. At the front-end, flatteners are the play as the Fed moves inexorably toward the first rate hike. As for the monetary policy, most Fedwatchers look for little change to the forward guidance statement, which should keep expectations for rate lift-off positioned for later in 2015. Dovish surprises in the statement should see yields again move lower.
12:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a batch of put selling
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has simmered back down
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.931 B in bonds in its final QE3 buyback
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10:45 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index slipped slightly to 10.5 in October
U.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index slipped slightly to 10.5 in October after rising 3.7 points to 10.8 in September. The index is averaging 10.1 of the past 6 months, so the October headline is right in line. The employment component was steady at 10.2 from 10.6. New orders doubled to 14.2 from 7.5. Prices paid were essentially flat too at 19.7 from 19.5. The 6-month general business activity index inched up to 13.3 from 12.1, with employment at 31.7 from 18.4, prices paid at 31.4 versus 36.4, and capital expenditures at 20.6 from 23.5.
10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made intra day lows
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10:34 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index data reported
October Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index at 10.5 vs. consensus of 7.5
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.85 B to $1.05 B in bonds
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.85 B to $1.05 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through August 15, 2044. This should be the last of the QE3 buybacks, with the FOMC expected to announce its end on Wednesday.
10:20 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 19:05
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10:20 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 12:45
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10:20 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosnegren Speech to be released at 10:00
10:20 EDT Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker Speech to be released at 09:30
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10:20 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 09:15
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10:20 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Speech to be released at 12:40
10:20 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 09:30
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10:20 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 09:00
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10:20 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 03:00
10:20 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 09:00
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales index rose 0.3% to 105.0 in September
U.S. pending home sales index rose 0.3% to 105.0 in September after falling 1.0% to 104.7 in August (revised from 104.7) as the index continues its saw-toothed monthly gyrations. Gains were registered in the South and Northeast, while the Midwest and West declined. Compared to a year-ago, the index rebounded to a 1.0 % y/y, versus -4.1% y/y previously. And this breaks a string of 11 straight declines in the annual reading.
09:55 EDTU.S. flash Markit PMI services index fell to 57.3 in October
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09:54 EDTFederal Reserve Board of Governors to hold a meeting
The Board of Governors hold a Bi-Monthly Meeting where it will review the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks will be held in Washington, D.C. on October 27 at 12 pm.
09:45 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI preview:
U.S. Markit flash services PMI preview: Markit flash services PMI is forecast to dip to 58.0 in October from 58.9 in September. For more detail, see the Markit website.
09:45 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
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09:44 EDTBrazil election results followed by weak U.S. market open
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09:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude sliced through $80 support
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09:30 EDTTreasury Supply: the Treasury auctions $108 B in notes this week which
Treasury Supply: the Treasury auctions $108 B in notes this week which could keep yields elevated into the FOMC announcement. The debt managers are selling $29 B in 2-year notes (Tuesday), $35 B in 5-year notes (Wednesday), $29 B in 7-year notes (Thursday), and $15 B in 2-year FRNs (Wednesday). When issued yields are a little richer today, down 1 to 2 basis points, with the 2-year at 0.415%, the 5-year at 1.50%, and the 7-year at 1.945%. For the 2-year, a stop here would be the lowest since May, for the 5-year since November, and for the 7-year it would be the richest in a year. The outright yield levels could make for lackluster demand, especially ahead of the Wednesday FOMC announcement. However, the auctions should benefit from the ongoing wide spread to European and Asian core sovereigns. Month-end flows could also help underpin the 7-year.
09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded above Friday's 1.1243 high
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are tilting lower
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 51 cents at $80.50/bbl
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly lower
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:34 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
Mehran Nakhjavani, a Co-founder and Partner of MRB Partners, discusses whether or not it's the right time to invest in emerging market assets or if investors should wait to do so after the first Fed hike will be held in Boston on October 27 at 12:15 pm.
07:30 EDTWeek Ahead: Stressed Out!
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07:26 EDTFutures quiet to begin the week
U.S. equity futures are trading right around fair value, as the market hopes to build on last week’s advance. There is little for investors to key in on today, although this week will mark the peak of the earnings reporting season, and the two day FOMC meeting begins tomorrow. Oil prices remain a concern for some investors, despite the savings investors will see at the gasoline pump. Oil futures are currently lower.
07:18 EDTBarron's to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The euro drifted back to near net unchanged levels
FX Update: The euro drifted back to near net unchanged levels around 1.2675 after failing to sustain early gains following Sunday's bank stress test results, which came without nasty surprises and with capital shortfalls found to have mostly been covered. EUR-USD edged out a peak of 1.2714, which is the highest point seen since last Wednesday, before heading back under 1.27. A bout of selling was seen after German Ifo missed expectations. Elsewhere, Cable climbed above 1.6100 after BoE MPC member McCafferty repeated his view that rising rates sooner rather than later would prevent the need for sharper and potentially more disruptive tightening further down the road. McCafferty is one of the two MPC dissenters who have voted for a quarter point rate hike over the last three months, though the prevailing slackening in economic activity and a five-year low in inflation has weakened his argument. USD-JPY edged out a three-week high of 108.39 before ebbing to the 107.75 area. Japanese exporter offers were reportedly a bearish driving force.
06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 27
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.40 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.63%, DAX down 0.48%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $81.11, natural gas up 0.41%, gold at $1231 an ounce, and copper up 0.10%.
06:10 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:40 EDTFX Update: The euro is moderately higher
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October 24, 2014
22:23 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
October Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 . Current consensus is 86.4
22:23 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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22:23 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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22:23 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
September Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
22:23 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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22:23 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
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22:23 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
Real GDP will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 3.0% for the quarter
22:23 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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22:23 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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22:23 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 10
22:23 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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22:23 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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22:23 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
October Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is 7.5
22:23 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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22:23 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields rebounded from lows after the latest Ebola scare in NYC simmered down and asset markets rebalanced after their squeamishness overnight on Friday. Ebola arriving on the doorstep of New York and big earnings misses by Amazon, BASF and others rattled stocks early, though they steadily recovered over the session. The equity rebound lacked momentum, however, after a weaker than expected new home sales report and downward back revisions, while focus turned to next week's sovereign supply and the expected end to QE3 by the FOMC.
14:35 EDTFOMC Preview:
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14:10 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:05 EDTU.S. equities are inching higher
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found a floor
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11:54 EDTECB Constancio and Nouy hold a press conference
ECB Vice President Constancio and President of the ECB Supervisory Council Nouy discuss the results of the comprehensive assessment in a press conference being held in Frankfurt, Germany on October 26 at 7:30 am. Webcast Link
11:43 EDTBarclays equity/economics teams hold analyst/industry conference call
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: very quiet trade has been the rule
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10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made its way to 1.1195
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10:40 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. new home sales rise to 467k
The 0.2% U.S. new home sales rise to 467k in September beat estimates, but it followed big downward revisions in the prior three months that left a weak report overall. The median price fell by a hefty 9.7% in September, though this followed three months of upward revisions that left a new all-time high in August. Inventories climbed to a 207k four-year high in September after three months of small upward revisions. The data show only a modest Q3 rebound in new home sales after a disappointing Q1-Q2 performance, with price gains that are moderating despite the August price peak, and rising inventories as new home construction continues to grow despite a jittery buyer and difficult financing conditions. Analysts still expect a climb in new home sales to the 473k area in Q4, from a 446k average in Q3 that matched the cycle-high in Q4 of 2013, and restrained interim averages of 430k in Q2 and 431k in Q1. Analysts're more generally seeing an erratic climb from cycle-lows for new, pending, and existing home sales, as well as housing starts, permits, new home construction and the NAHB index as discussed in our October 8 commentary.
10:35 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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10:16 EDTLeerink healthcare services analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields cooled off from earlier highs
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10:13 EDTFutures improve but market tenuous in early trade
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales inched up 0.2% to 467k in September
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10:03 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 19:05
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10:03 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 12:45
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10:03 EDT Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker Speech to be released at 09:30
10:03 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Speech to be released at 12:40
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10:03 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields have edged off of earlier lows
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09:30 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: September new home sales should fall by 8.7% to a 460k (median 468k) pace for the month following a 504k clip in August. Yet already released housing data for the month had starts rising to 1,017k from 957k in August and the NAHB rising to 59 from 55 in August.
09:06 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update from Washington, D.C. on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 24 at 11 am.
09:03 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with CBRE Managing Director of Data Solutions Group Pat Lynch and Tenant Advisor on the SoCal Market, provide a 3Q14 Data Center Market Update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 24 at 10:30 am.
09:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a handful of put activity
Euro$ interest rate options: a handful of put activity has been reported in relatively light opening dealings. Among them were a bearish purchase of 3k in Short December 86/88/91 put butterflies, a bullish sale of 5k in Blue December 71/73/76 put butterflies and a bearish purchase of 4k in Short December 88/91 put spreads. This time underlying futures have rebounded a bit compared to weaker stocks, with the December 2014 flat at 99.76, but the deferreds 0.5-3.5 ticks firmer.
08:59 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond holds a workshop
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down nearly 1.0%
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bond yields are lower
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:10 EDTFX Update
FX Update: Reports of a first Ebola case in New York city spooked equity markets and underpinned core sovereign bond prices but had limited evident impact in currency markets. EUR-USD was trading at near net unchanged levels on the day, at 1.2648 bid, as of early PM trade in Europe. The euro had failed to sustain an early-session run to 1.2665 following German consumer confidence data, which made it two days in a row that the Eurozone has seen upside data surprises. Rare good news for the euro this might be, but in terms of EUR-USD this has been offset by yesterday's strong data set out of the U.S., which have helped the dollar claw back a yield advantage. Cable gained 40-50 pips in the wake of the GDP release out of the U.K in climbing to the 1.6060-70 area, even though the data exactly matched the consensus expectation for 0.7% q/q and 3.0% y/y growth. It is more a case of there being no ugly surprises in a market running a net short exposure following this week's run of data misses out of the U.K. The pound subsequently dipped back to the 1.6035-40 area. USD-JPY consolidated slightly lower, holding near 108.00 after making a 16-day peak at 108.35 yesterday.
06:55 EDTS&P 500 futures are showing a 0.35% loss
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 24
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05:46 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has lifted on German confidence data
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02:03 EDTWeek of 10/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:03 EDTWeek of 11/5 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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October 23, 2014
21:35 EDTRisk-off came back to haunt stocks and boost the yen
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16:37 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:37 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:37 EDTWeek of 10/31 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:37 EDTWeek of 11/1 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:45 EDTThe dollar index continues to motor
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed 2-week highs
Treasury Action: yields probed 2-week highs at the long-end as the stock market exuberance continued to roll back yields to pre-plunge levels. The tiny TIPS auction had little bearing and reflected mixed signals on inflation risks as the Fed takes another step closer to the exit next week. The T-note yield is testing the 2.30% area, having shot 10 basis points higher from 2.20% in Asia and is nosing toward the 2.30-2.35% zone, having based at global margin call lows of 1.86% on October 15. Plenty of talk of a short-squeeze on hedge funds on Wall Street is doing the rounds as well.
13:10 EDTTreasury's $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening wasn't great
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13:00 EDTTreasury TIPS auction preview:
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12:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: and more put positioning
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY topped at 108.19
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11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $1.496 B in notes
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged package of auctions for next week
Treasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged package of auctions for next week, in line with the size over recent months. This includes a $29 B 2-year note (Tuesday), a $35 B 5-year (Wednesday), and a $29 B 7-year (Thursday). Debt managers also outlined a $15 B 2-year FRN (Wednesday), and a $54 B 3- and 6-month bill offering (Monday). Supply could be a factor keeping upward pressure on yields next week.
11:03 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.35 B to $1.65 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.35 B to $1.65 B in notes dated from July 31, 2020 through September 30, 2021. The purchase probably won't make much of a dent in Treasury losses amid a big risk-on move into stocks. If the Fed sticks to its "promise," this should be the penultimate operation under QE3. Next w
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 17
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar resumed its climb
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields were lifted to session highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
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10:10 EDTU.S. leading index climbed 0.8% to 104.4 in September
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10:02 EDTSouthwest Oncology Group to hold group meeting
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10:00 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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10:00 EDTU.S. flash Markit PMI manufacturing index fell 1.3 points to 56.2 in October
U.S. flash Markit PMI manufacturing index fell 1.3 points to 56.2 in October after slipping 0.4 points to 57.5 in September. August's 57.9 was a record high for this relatively new index. This is the slowest pace of growth since July. The employment index posted a "robust rate of job creation," according to the report, while new order growth and output both eased. Softer new business growth was the main negative influence on the headline index. And new export sales were the slowest since July. The U.S. report mostly bucked the trend of better than expected headlines from Japan, China, and Europe.
09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more put positioning
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09:48 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level data reported
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:35 EDTSolid earnings lift market at open
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09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been a bit squirrely
FX Action: USD-CAD has been a bit squirrely since the BoC announcement yesterday, though has managed to pick up ground this morning following its dip to 1.1208 lows, peaking near 1.1255. The BoC's statement did not materially change the Bank's outlook, and as a result, USD-CAD is back in the middle of its recent range. Firmer equities will put a top on the pairing for now, though oil prices remain in focus, and a move toward $80/bbl could see USD-CAD test the 1.1300 level.
09:25 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.5% to 214.0 in August
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities tacked higher
U.S. equities tacked higher after a sluggish session overnight with mostly weaker global bourses, that shrugged off firmer PMIs in China, Japan and the Eurozone after the incidents in Ottawa and the White House. Initial jobless claims rebounded 17k to 283k, while there remains a hodge podge assortment of home price and LEI data due and the market had already taken its bullish cue from CAT earnings. The Dow is 125-points higher, S&P gained 14-points and NASDAQ 29-points firmer ahead of the open. This rally flew in the face of a 1.04% poorly explained plunge in the Shanghai comp and a 0.37% drop in Japan's Nikkei, while the Euro Stoxx 50 has recovered to 0.3% from negative territory. Among key earnings releases were Caterpillar, which rallied over 4% along with 2% gains on GM and Boston Scientific. CAT $1.72 EPS vs $1.36 estimates earnings were especially pertinent as U.S. multinationals were expected to be dented by the dollar's Q3 surge; moreover, CAT predicted an upturn in global economic growth in 2015, though some slowing due to reforms in China.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved up a notch
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08:50 EDTThe 17k U.S. initial claims bounce to 283k
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08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago National Activity index surged to 0.47 in September
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yield nosed higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 17k to 283k in the week ended October 18
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 17k to 283k in the week ended October 18, after dropping 21k to 266k previously (revised from 264k). The claims data take on extra importance since they coincide with the BLS employment survey week. The 4-week moving average fell to 281 from 284k (revised from 283.5k). Continuing claims dropped 38k to 2,351k in the October 11 week, from 2,389k. The BLS said there were no unusual factors in the data, and the numbers continue to reflect a much improved job market.
08:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is at $81.07/bbl
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08:30 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have edged lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have edged lower, in tandem with modest declines in European sovereigns after some better than expected PMI readings. Indeed, the 10-year yield hit 2.25%. U.S. equity futures are rebounding after yesterday's declines on the improved manufacturing data. However, European bourses are mostly lower after disappointing earnings news and misses in U.K. retail sales and mortgage lending data. Asian equities tracked Wednesday's weakness on Wall Street. Of note, Japan's 3-month bill auction saw a negative yield for the first time ever. Today's calendar is full and includes the Markit PMI for October, initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 (which coincides with the BLS employment survey), the August FHFA home price numbers, and September leading indicators. September new home sales are due Friday. There are a slew of earnings reports, including Caterpillar, Microsoft, Amazon, Eli Lilly, American Airlines, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Credit Suisse, Daimler, Deckers, Dr Pepper Snapple, Dunkin' Brands, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and Under Armour. The Treasury reopens $7 B in 30-year TIPS. The NY Fed will buy $1.35 B to $1.65 B in notes dated from July 31, 2020 through September 30, 2021. This should the penultimate buyback of QE3.
07:30 EDTMarket looking to rebound from yesterday’s sell-off
Stock futures are slightly higher in early trading, as the market will look to overcome fears sparked by a shooting at the Canadian parliament building yesterday. There are many earnings reports for investors to pore over today, along with a few economic reports which are scheduled to be released later in the day. Investors will be watching the weekly jobless claims data and natural gas storage change report for clues about the economy.
07:09 EDTGlobal Technology Community to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mixed
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mixed
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 23
Globex S&P futures are recently up 9.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.37%, DAX up 0.67%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $80.40, natural gas down 0.60%, gold at $1240 an ounce, and copper up 0.55%.
05:49 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded marginally firmer
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October 22, 2014
20:00 EDTWhite House was locked down after the close
White House was locked down after the close after a man jumped the fence and made it as far as the lawn before being intercepted by guard dogs and secret service agents. The incident would be just another random act but for the heightened security following the events in Ottawa earlier today, which caused some slight jitters in the equity markets. Otherwise, yields and FX majors are fairly steady heading toward the release of Japan and China PMIs.
17:12 EDTWeek of 10/31 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:12 EDTWeek of 10/31 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed up with the opening bounce in equities on Wednesday, but failed to retreat much lower after stock gains were reversed in light of the attack in Ottawa that was analyzed for any broader regional terror implications, or whether domestic or international. That tragic incident, however, sowed enough doubt in investors to put the rally on pause. Tame core CPI meanwhile left the upcoming FOMC meeting on track to finish off QE3 with little fanfare, while the debate about the timing of rate hikes remains in play. The Bank of Canada abandoned its neutral bias, but the events in Ottawa overshadowed and delayed any press conference to more clearly explain their rationale.
14:25 EDTThe U.S. VIX rebounded to highs of 17.69
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13:45 EDTU.S. equities have rotated lower
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13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the next policy decision is a week away
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12:30 EDTDollar swap spreads continue to narrow
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11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: still more put activity
Euro$ interest rate options: still more put activity seems to be in vogue ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, though the Fed is merely expected to close the chapter on QE3, even as the markets press it to open a new one on QE4. In block trade there was 20k in June 95 puts, though in this case the aggressor was thought to be a seller. Also tallied was a bearish purchase of 5k in 90/91/92 in Short December put butterflies and a bearish sale of 5k in Blue December 80 calls. The December 2014 contract is flat at 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-5.5 ticks lower out the curve.
11:30 EDTU.S. equities have steadied in the black
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11:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude dove to $81.61
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10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 107.34 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY managed 107.34 highs in the aftermath of the U.S. CPI data, though the return of Japanese offers has resulted in a pullback under 107.20. Firmer U.S. Treasury yields are providing modest support, while the slow advance on Wall Street should limit downside as well.
10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 17
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dropped to intra day lows of 1.1191
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09:46 EDTLimited futures action leads to relatively quiet open
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09:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a couple of issues are pressuring Treasuries
U.S. corporate bond update: a couple of issues are pressuring Treasuries, with a big multi-tranche deal from Verizon reportedly the main culprit. Verizon has a 4-part deal, all benchmark in size, including 5-, 7-, 10- and 20-year paper. Also FMS Wertmangement has a $1.5 B 2-year note set to price. Omnicon has a benchmark sized 10-year. Yesterday saw the highest volume since April. Meanwhile, some are also already gearing up for next week's 2-, 5-, and 7-year Treasury auctions.
09:44 EDTWeek of 12/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 12/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 12/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:44 EDTWeek of 12/7 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/23 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:44 EDTWeek of 11/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/9 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:43 EDTWeek of 11/2 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:43 EDTWeek of 10/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:43 EDTMaxim Group analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:32 EDTSecurities and Exchange Commission to hold an open commission meeting
The Commission discusses whether to adopt rules relating to credit risk retention by securitizers of asset-backed securities, as mandated by Section 15G of the Exchange Act and Section 941(b) of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in a meeting being held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on October 22 at 10 am. Webcast Link
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed higher still
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning included the purchase of 7.7k in 87/90/92 put butterflies on the Short December contract, with open interest built up to 409k on the 99 put, 317k on the 98.875 and 401k on the 98.75. Sources speculate that a Swiss based fund is behind the majority of this open interest. The December 2014 contract is flat at 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks lower out the curve.
09:05 EDTThe 0.1% September U.S. CPI headline and core price gains
The 0.1% September U.S. CPI headline and core price gains left a headline overshoot attributable to a 0.3% food price rise that bucked market price declines, alongside a smaller than expected 0.7% energy price drop. The slight CPI core price undershoot reflected flat figures for apparel and new vehicle prices and a lean 0.1% medical price rise, alongside a 0.1% tobacco price drop. Analysts now expect a flat (was 0.1%) September PCE chain price figure with a 0.1% core price rise that slightly undershoots today's CPI figures, which rounded from 0.086% and 0.139%, respectively. Analysts now expect a 0.2% (was flat) September nominal PCE rise that overshoots last week's 0.3% September retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto decline, alongside an unrevised 0.1% September estimate for the "real" PCE figure. Our 2.6% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes 3.2% (was 3.0%) nominal and 2.0% "real" consumption growth, with a 1.2% (was 1.0%) chain price gain.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are "moderately" lower to start
U.S. equities are "moderately" lower to start the session after a quieter European session and more chop in Asia. Core CPI rose a tame 0.1% headline and core, leaving the markets with little to leverage this morning per se. The Dow is 8-points lower, S&P fell 3-points and NASDAQ is off 4-points in pre-open action. Earnings results from Yahoo! and Broadcom were better than expected, helping put a backstop under the tech sector, while Boeing raised guidance and boosted blue chips. Dow Chemical rallied 3.5%, while VMware slumped over 6% after forecasting a miss. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both jumped roughly 2.6%, though the Shanghai Comp sank 0.5% and the HK Hang Seng was up 1.3%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is in shallow positive territory as ECB's Coene was unable to dowse expectations of corporate bond buying ahead. That leaves little on the docket other than more earnings reports.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD popped to intra day highs
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: a flurry of pre-CPI jitters
Treasury Action: a flurry of pre-CPI jitters drove the T-note yield over 2.22% from 2.19% earlier, but the data was pretty benign and yields settled back off over highs. Stocks remain ambivalent ahead of the open, while the dollar is making some inroads again. Failing a break of 2.23% week highs, look for a probe of the 2.13-2.12% area. The 2s-10s spread has meanwhile steadied below +185 bp.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed broadly
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08:40 EDTU.S. CPI edged up 0.1% in September, with the core rate up 0.1%
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08:35 EDTFutures remain quiet following CPI data
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08:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: The September overall-CPI is expected to decline 0.1% (median 0.1%), while the core index rises 0.2% (median 0.2%). Analysts've seen the expected weakness in inflationary data thus far, as declines in trade prices revealed the expected September headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August. Further, the 0.1% PPI headline decline with flat core price undershot estimates thanks to a surprising 0.1% decline in service sector prices alongside the expected 0.2% drop in goods prices with component declines of 0.7% for both energy and food.
08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading up at $82.78
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is trading up at $82.78, after ranging between $82.27 and $82.94 overnight. The improvement in risk taking levels, and recent China data indicating a rise in demand there, has prompted some short covering over the past two sessions. In the bigger picture however, a soft economic outlook for Europe and much of Asia, should see upside limited to the $85/bbl region.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTThe FDIC to hold a teleconference
eleconference focuses on common questions and answers pertaining to implementation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage and Loan Originator Compensation Final Rules and is being held on October 22 at 2 pm.
07:39 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a luncheon meeting
Ryan Dobratz of Third Avenue Management is the guest speaker at a luncheon meeting being held in Columbus, Ohio on October 22 at 12 pm.
07:38 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society holds a discussion
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 11.6%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 11.6% in data released earlier, in addition to a 4.8% drop in the purchase index and a 23.3% surge in the refinancing index for the week ended October 17. This was all a refinancing story, as the benchmark T-note yield hit a 16-month "taper tantrum" low of 1.86% and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sank 10 basis points to 4.10%. That provided a "get out of jail free card" to a number of households to lower their monthly mortgage expenses through refis. The MBA noted: "Mortgage rates have fallen close to 30 basis points over the last four weeks. Refi application volume reached the highest level since November 2013 as a result, and the average loan balance for refinance applications increased to $306,400, the highest level in the survey's history." For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:34 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
5th Australian REIT Conference is being held in Sydney, Australia on October 22-23.
07:33 EDTJefferson Companies to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a summit
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07:29 EDTHoulihan Lokey to hold a conference
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07:26 EDTFutures quiet in early trading
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07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer
FX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer on the catalyst of bearish developments affecting the euro and sterling. EUR-USD lost about half a big figure from on the early London high at 1.2939, taking the pair back below 1.27. The move was prompted by Spanish news agency Efe reporting that 11 banks from six European countries are likely to fail the stress tests. Cable, meanwhile, made a six-day low at 1.6011 on the BoE minutes to the October MPC meeting, which showed a ratcheting up in the dovish language of the seven voters in favour of unchanged policy. USD-JPY logged a high at 107.12 during the Tokyo session, subsequently dipping back under 107 with the yen market lacking strong leads.
06:12 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 22
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 2.64%, DAX up 0.20%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $82.51, natural gas down 0.27%, gold at $1246 an ounce, and copper up 0.01%.
05:58 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is ebbing
FX Action: USD-JPY is ebbing slightly after earlier leaving a high at 107.12 during the Tokyo session. Japan's September trade balance came in with a deficit of JPY 958.3 B, worse than the expected JPY 780.0 B deficit, though a 6.9% rise in exports is encouraging given lacklustre domestic demand. The data has had minimal market impact. USD-JPY has been establishing a choppy consolidation range after a two-week correction period in the wake of the dollar logging a six-year peak at 110.09 on Oct-1. Support is marked at 106.25 and 106.00, major support at 105.19 (the Oct-14 correction base). Yesterday's five-day peak at 107.39 is resistance. Analysts remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, anticipating an eventual move on 115 on the back of divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan.
October 21, 2014
20:30 EDTJapan's September trade deficit widened 17.3% m/m to Y958.3 B
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16:37 EDTWeek of 11/1 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:37 EDTWeek of 11/1 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:00 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
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14:15 EDTJapan's PM Abe Complicates BoJ Outlook:
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14:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are little changed
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12:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning has been spotted despite some outperformance at the short-end and on the underlying rate futures in the face of a stiff headwind from the impulsive equity rally. Among them were a 20k sale of Blue December 71put/81call in block trade (sold calls) and another 3k purchase of Short December 90/91 put spreads. But the December 2014 contract is now up a half-tick at 99.765, while the deferreds are 1-3 ticks firmer out the back-end.
12:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the meeting is a week away
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $34 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:30 EDTU.S. equities are building a fresh head of steam to the upside
U.S. equities are building a fresh head of steam to the upside propped up by a 1.6% rally on NASDAQ and a 2.3% gain on Apple following solid results overnight, as the firm's bullish holiday sales forecasts spreads some cheer to the tech sector. European shares have extended gains as well ahead of their close, with the Euro Stoxx 50 some 2% higher and the Dutch AEX leading with a 2.5% rally. Top gainers in the Dow are Home Depot +2% (after firm existing home sales), Disney +1.9% and Caterpillar +1.8% (after decent China data). Deepest declines were posted by Coke -6.3% (after its big earnings miss and cost cutting), IBM -4.1% (still reeling) and McDonald's -0.5% (continuing global sales slump). Despite this wide dispersion of results on net stocks are up and the VIX equity volatility index pulled back to a 2-week low of 16.36, down from 17.72 at the open and panic highs of 31.05 last Wednesday.
11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took a quick look over 106.90
FX Action: USD-JPY took a quick look over 106.90 earlier, though was later pushed back under 106.60, reportedly as sellers stepped in ahead of rumored 107.00 Japanese exporter offers. The better risk backdrop has limited downside, with the pairing back over 106.70 now, and analysts look for a 106.60-90 range to hold up through the close.
11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance continues to pick-up
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.536 B in notes
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.4 B to $1.7 B in notes
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10:20 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held near session highs
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.170 M in September
U.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.170 M in September following a 1.8% drop to 5.050 M in August. Single family sales popped up 2.0% after the 1.5% August decline (revised from -1.8%). Condo/coop sales bounced 5.2%, recovering from the prior 3.3% decline (revised from -1.7%). The months' supply of homes fell to 5.3 from 5.5. The median sales price fell to $209,700 from $218,400 (revised from $219,800). That's up 3.7% y/y. Data are better than expected and will support the rally on Wall Street.
09:45 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:39 EDTMarket rises after earnings from Apple, five Dow members
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved to intra day lows
FX Action: USD-CAD has moved to intra day lows of 1.1220, with domestic selling reportedly setting in on the break of London's 1.1243 low. The commodity and generally improved risk backdrop have aided the CAD, though good corporate bidding interest is noted at 1.1200, which could limit downside from here. In front of that, Friday's 1.1210 lows could provide interim support.
09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: put buying has resumed
Treasury Option Action: put buying has resumed across the curve on the open, according to sources. This is with the grain of the relatively weaker start along the rate complex, including a bearish purchase of 1.5k in December 125.5/126.5 put 1x2s on 10-year futures and a purchase of 2k in September 96/97 put 1x2s on euro$s rate futures. December 10s are 7-ticks lower near 127-19, compared to a 128-085 to 127-16 range on Globex, while December 2014s on the euro$s are flat at 99.76 and the deferreds are 1-4.5 ticks lower to start.
08:45 EDToil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $83.05/bbl,
oil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $83.05/bbl, up marginally, after trading between $82.74 and $83.45 overnight. Firmer China demand helped support prices, while better than forecast growth and production data from the country improved the demand outlook. The market remains oversupplied overall however, and sources look for further selling into additional strength.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities were pulled higher
U.S. equities were pulled higher by a solid rally on European stocks after a Reuters article that the ECB could spread its asset purchases to corporate bonds by the New Year. Also the strong results on Apple after the close kick-started the ongoing rebound in tech sector stocks, along with solid earnings on Texas Instruments. The Dow is 52-points firmer, S&P gained 9-points and NASDAQ rallied 29-points in pre-open action. This followed a bumpy ride on Asian shares after the Nikkei -2.03% gave back half of its previous day's windfall made on the back of GPIF investment hopes, while the Shanghai Comp settled -0.72% lower after a decent run of monthly Chinese data reduced stimulus hopes. On the other hand, Europe was quite strong with a 1.1% gain on the Euro Stoxx 50 after the ECB story. Apple climbed over 2% after predicting record upcoming holiday sales following upsized iPhone, revamped iPads and the Apple Pay rollout. Coca-Cola sank over 3% after a miss and plans to cut expenses by $3 B. Up next is the release of existing home sales, seen growing 0.6% to 2.08 M in September.
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index fell 0.3%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index fell 0.3% in the week ended October 18 after declining 0.7% previously. The index has dropped in 4 of the last 6 weeks. Compared to last year, sales slowed to a 2.1% y/y rate from 3.8% y/y previously. Despite the headline dip, electronics, apparel, and discounter stores all saw solid sales, according to the report.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
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07:23 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
Board of Directors Meeting is being held at the FDIC Building in Washington, D.C. on October 21 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:20 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
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07:19 EDTFDA to hold a workshop on medical devices
Public Workshop: Collaborative Approaches for Medical Devices and Healthcare Cybersecurity will be held at the FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on October 21-22 at 8:30 am.
07:10 EDTFutures suggest continued volatility
U.S. equity futures are sharply higher and suggesting another triple digit move for the Dow. The market has been volatile over the past several weeks with triple digit moves the norm over that period. Today’s early move is being attributed to the earnings season kicking into high gear, with better than expected earnings last night from Apple (AAPL) and this morning from Dow components United Technologies (UTX) and Travelers (TRV). Investors will also be watching the report on existing home sales for September, which is due out after the bell.
07:09 EDTRoth Capital to hold symposium
ROTH Solar Symposium & Booth Tours to be held in Las Vegas on October 21-22.
06:47 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 21
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05:53 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mostly softer
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01:00 EDTJapan's all-industry index dipped 0.1% in August
Japan's all-industry index dipped 0.1% in August after a revised 0.4% Decline in July (was -0.2%). Though the headline decline was less than forecast, the downward revisions leaves the data on the weaker side. Japanese stocks are sharply lower on the day, dropping 250 points to unwind most of yesterday's gains after the GPIF asset allocation news. JPY is firmer.
October 20, 2014
22:50 EDTChina's economic data alleviated growth fears.
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market kept a cool head on Monday, allowing stocks to falter on the IBM earnings miss and reboot ahead of Apple's release after the close. No matter, Treasuries remained largely bid across the spectrum after the early sell-off after Fedspeak of a slightly hawkish tilt from Rosengren and Fisher stirred up the market early on. The ECB kicked off its covered bond purchase program, but peripheral spreads widened out and kept a safety premium in Bunds that spilled over as well. There was little on the economic docket to otherwise steer the price action today.
15:00 EDTTreasury Action: fundamentals are more relevant today
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14:25 EDTNASDAQ is getting bid up
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck
FX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck on the bottom of its N.Y. range, trading 106.80-107.00 virtually all session. News that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund is rising the ratio of domestic stocks to 25% from 12% could result in fewer official yen sales in the coming months, which bigger picture, may weigh some on USD-JPY. The initial reaction overnight was a higher USD-JPY, as domestic markets rallied nearly 4%, though going forward, as retirement fund demand for dollars and euros eases, some USD-JPY support may be removed.
13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is still expected to end QE this month
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12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more put buying
Euro$ interest rate options: more put buying has been spotted, including the purchase of 10k in Green March 68 puts and a purchase of 5k in Short December 87/90/92 put butterflies. Yet underlying futures continue to hold up and build on opening gains, though stocks and longer yields continue to inch higher in afternoon trade. The December 2014 contract is still a half-tick higher of 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks higher.
11:55 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads have narrowed
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
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11:18 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 16:30
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday. It's up $1 from last week's $33 B volume, and is $4 B higher than the September 29 sale. Supply is thin this week with just the $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening, and bills, including today's $54 B 3- and 6-month offering.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:00 EDTChina's heavy slate of data will help drive markets
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10:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 6.2%
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.00 B to $1.25 B in notes
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10:00 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Unwinding Q3 Strength:
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched intra day lows of 106.79
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09:36 EDTIBM pushes Dow sharply lower as volatility persists
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session following the disappointing earnings from tech giant and Dow member IBM (IBM). The bulk of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's drop is due to IBM, shares which are heavily weighted due to its high price per share. The market continues to exhibit its extreme volatility and it will have major headwinds to overcome if it is to get back to positive ground. Investors will be trying to discern if IBM’s miss is indicative of company specific issue or a broader slowdown in tech before another giant, Apple (AAPL), reports on its results today after the closing bell. In early trading, the Dow is down 93 points, the Nasdaq is up 1 point and the S&P is down 2 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today amid calmer market conditions. Only $7.5 B priced last week, the third lowest volume of the year to date. Constellation Brands is pricing $800 M in 5- and 10-year noncallable senior notes. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are are also on tap. The former is selling benchmark 5-year notes. The latter has a benchmark 10-year deal. KfW is marketing benchmark sized 3-year notes. There isn't much competition from the Treasury this week with just bills and a 30-year TIPS reopening on the auction block.
09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are starting out on the wrong foot
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08:38 EDTiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund volatility flat on wide movement
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund overall option implied volatility of 8 is near its 26-week average of 7 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
08:35 EDTFed dove Rosengren said ending QE is warranted by the improved job market
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08:35 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher speaking on CNBC via phone
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08:25 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading just under $93.00
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFed Governor Powell will take part in a webinar
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:32 EDTU.S. Labor Secretary speaks on the economy at a luncheon meeting
U.S. Labor Secretary Perez discusses the U.S. economy and labor situation in a speech entitled "Shared Prosperity: Building an Economy that Works for Everyone," at a National Press Club luncheon meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on October 20 at 1 pm.
07:31 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Tarullo to speak at workshop
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07:30 EDTFCC to hold a consumer advisory committee meeting
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07:28 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York President speaks at workshop
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07:24 EDTFutures lower to begin the week
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07:13 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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06:09 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 20
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03:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar was mostly firmer
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October 18, 2014
10:27 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 11:00 . Current consensus is 6.0
10:27 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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10:27 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
August FHFA House Price Index M/M change will be reported at 09:00 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
September Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.10M
10:27 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 10:00
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October 17, 2014
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A "V-shaped" recovery on stocks signaled an all-clear on recent volatility on Friday, or not. Successive rounds of dovish Fedspeak this week proved a timely placebo for the European anxiety attack that spread across the Pond faster than Ebola in a pressurized cabin. In either case the sentiment swings this week were no laughing matter and spoke to the complacency build-up thanks to QE3, which is nearing its home stretch. Housing and sentiment data was a bit brighter to round out the week and Europe responded to asset purchase promises from the ECB and dovish BoE-speak as well, which completed the asset role-reversal.
14:45 EDTU.S. Week Ahead: consolidation could be the watch word
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13:50 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:15 EDTFed QE3 nearly dead, all hail QE4:
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12:50 EDTTresury Option Action: some bullish put selling
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12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some more vol selling
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed headline gains for both September housing starts and October Michigan sentiment, though the 6.3% starts climb included surprising restraint in the single family and "under construction" figures that lowered prospects for the housing sector into year-end. The sentiment climb to 86.4 set a new cycle-high in October, but the Ebola-scare in the second half of the month should prompt an atypical downward revision in the final report. Today's stock market bounce marks the best news of the day going into the weekend, despite the morning's reported headline gains, and if markets continue to climb next week analysts may see less of a hit to the remaining October confidence reports.
11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's a typically quiet session
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11:00 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5
U.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5 down some 18% compared yesterday's 25.20 close and Wednesday's peak of 31.06, as the melt-up in equities thanks to firm data, earnings and reversal in European equities all conspire to take some starch out of the VIX again as U.S. stocks rally some 1.25-1.55%. As noted yesterday, if stocks continue to weather the global margin call, the retreat of the VIX back down to the 20.0-15.0 zone "could be as sharp as its recent rise." However, it would take a resumption of equity liquidation/liquidity trap to put 37.5 late-November 2011 level back in play, with 46.8 above.
10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower extending their declines as the world's asset markets rebalance after this week's big squeeze and liquidity trap. Even as Europe cheers the ECB's inexorable slide toward asset purchases and the Fed's inevitable backing away from premature rate hikes, that keeps the "Bernanke Put" alive a little longer and a temporary floor under stocks. Conversely, that's put a lid on gains on underlying euro$ rate futures, with the December 2014 contract flat at 99.755, the December 2015 4-ticks lower at 99.22 (0.78%) and the deferreds 1-7 ticks lower out the curve. Fedspeak has retained a dovish slant, however, likely keeping a nearby floor under the futures as well.
10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb to an 86.4 new cycle-high
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up to session highs
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar continued its advance
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10:05 EDTU.S. preliminary October consumer confidence rose to 86.4
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09:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:46 EDTJefferies media analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:34 EDTGuggenheim analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD revealed little initial reaction
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09:05 EDTSeptember gains for U.S. housing starts and permits
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08:58 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped to attention
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08:53 EDTBofA/Merrill holds analyst/industry conference call on non-cleared margin rules
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up broadly
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08:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy
Fed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy in her prepared remarks. She stuck to the conference topic of inequality, and said it is of great concern to her. Inequality is estimated to be near the highest in a century. She thinks inheritance is a significant source of economic opportunity, while the higher costs of education are a limiting factor.
08:46 EDTWeek of 10/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
08:46 EDTWeek of 10/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 6.3% to 1.017 M pace in September
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest sharply higher open
Stock futures continue to suggest a sharply higher open for the broader market. The housing starts and building permits reports for September showed increases of 6.3% and 1.5% respectively, versus expectations for starts to be up 5.4% and permits to rise 2.7%.
08:31 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold an energy analyst/industry conference call
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08:27 EDTBofA/Merrill retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied to $84.45
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08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:00 EDTBoston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE
Boston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE plans, in comments from a CNBC interview. But he acknowledged that QE4 could be considered if the economy gets weak. However, it's premature to make judgments on the market turbulence. Though Europe faces significant problems, the fundamental outlook hasn't really changed. And so far, there hasn't been enough of a shift in U.S. data to alter views either. So he still believes the first rate hike should be seen in 2015. Rosengren is one of the most dovish on the FOMC, but it doesn't appear that he is on board with more stimulus yet.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries and other core sovereigns are lower
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar majors settled
FX Update: The dollar majors settled after a volatile week while European and most Asian stock markets managed to recoup some of the ground lost this week. EUR-USD oscillated in a narrow range around 1.2800. USD-JPY lifted to the 106.50 area, achieving a two-day high and managing to climb above its 50-day moving average situated at 106.22. Generally firmer equity markets was conducive for the yen to give back some of its recent gains, although Japanese markets were the notable exception today with the Nikkei closing 1.4% for the worse. AUD-USD posted at 0.8734-0.8791 range, remaining comfortably within yesterday's range. Cable edged out a four-day high at 1.6117 but failed to sustain gains. BoE chief economist Haldane said in a speech that "rates could remain lower for longer." An accidental re-release of the RBNZ's September statement caused only a brief stir as it generated rehashed headlines about the Kiwi being to strong. NZD-USD dove over 50 pips to a low of 0.7878 before rebounding smartly to near net unchanged levels once the error became understood.
07:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen
Fedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen who will be speaking before an "Inequality of Economic Opportunity in the U.S." conference from 8:30 ET. This seems an unlikely venue for any major policy hints, though the topic could lend itself to confirming her dovish views on the labor market. Her speech will follow welcoming remarks from Boston Fed dove Rosengren.
07:10 EDTFuture suggest big upside at market open
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07:04 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:03 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at conference
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07:01 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren provides opening remarks
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren provides the opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 58th Economic Conference: Inequality of Economic Opportunity being held in Boston on October 17 at 8:30 am.
07:01 EDTJMP Securities to hold a conference
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 17
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05:52 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is today, October 17, 2014
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