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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 14, 2015
09:14 EDTUBS paper and forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTThe surprising 0.9% headline U.S. retail sales drop
The surprising 0.9% headline U.S. retail sales drop with a 1.0% ex-auto decline followed downward revisions in both October and November to leave a uniformly disappointing report, though December weakness was led by big declines in gasoline, building materials and autos that won't impact "real" December consumption forecasts, and prior downward revisions mostly reflected hits to gasoline station sales that were also price-related. For retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, which guide the real consumption component of GDP, analysts saw a 0.1% December drop that capped a ten-month string of 0.3%-1.1% gains. Analysts still expect a Q4 GDP growth of 3.5%, but with a smaller 4.2% (was 4.6%) growth clip for real Q4 consumer spending. Analysts assume a 0.2% (was +0.1%) December nominal PCE drop with a flat (was 0.4%) "real" figure, alongside a 0.2% PCE chain price drop that matches the decline analysts expect in Friday's December CPI report. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.2% November sales drop, after an October decline that will be revised to -0.3% from -0.1%. Analysts expect a December savings rate pop to 4.8% from 4.4% in November, versus a 4.1% cycle-low in December of 2013.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities skidded further
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08:50 EDTU.S. December import prices fell 2.5% while export prices dropped 1.2%
U.S. December import prices fell 2.5% while export prices dropped 1.2%. The 1.5% November drop was revised down to -1.8% (with October's -1.2% nudged to -1.4%). Import prices have declined for 6 straight months. November's 1.0% slide in export prices was revised to -0.8%. Exports prices have declined for 5 consecutive months. Petroleum import prices plunged 16.6% after declines of 9.1% in November and 7.1% in October. Industrial supplies prices dropped 8.5%. Foods and beverage prices rebounded 0.9%. Import prices from Canada declined 4.7%, and were unchanged versus China. As for export prices, agriculture prices fell 0.7%, while excluding ag, prices were down 1.2%.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% in December, and down 1.0% excluding autos
U.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% in December, and down 1.0% excluding autos, much worse than expected. The 0.7% gain in November was revised down to 0.4% (and the 0.5% October gain was nudged down to 0.4%). Excluding autos, the 0.5% November increase was bumped up to 0.1% (but the 0.4% October gain was revised down to 0.2%). Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, sales were down 0.2% versus 0.5% previously (revised down from 0.6%). Gas stations sales paced the weakness, as expected, falling 6.5%. Building materials fell 1.9%, while electronics dropped 1.6%. Only a couple of components posted gains.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a tumble
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08:36 EDTAdvance Retail Sales report pushes futures lower
U.S. equity futures continue to suggest a sharp decline at the open for the broader market. Advance Retail Sales were below expectations, showing a monthly decline of 0.9% versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%. Excluding autos and gas, the core reading showed a decline of 0.3% versus expectations of an increase of 0.5%. The Import Price Index showed a decline of 2.5% versus expectations of a decline of 2.7%.
08:32 EDTBank of England hosts the Chancellor of the Exchequer on economic policy
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Right Honorable George Osborne, MP, discusses economic policy to leading economists, academics and policymakers in a speech being held on January 14 at 12:30 pm. Webcast Link
08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Philly Fed hawk Plosser
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08:15 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade prices preview:
U.S. trade prices preview: December import prices are expected to fall 3.2% (median -1.5%) vs -1.5% in November, while export prices may reveal a 0.4% decline (median -0.6%) vs -1.0%. Forecast risk is even lower, however, as the continued collapse in oil prices will weigh on the report. preview for the details.
08:06 EDTCFA Society of Baltimore to hold a meeting
Mary Jane McQuillen discusses the elements of and addresses the myths about integrating environmental, social, governance (ESG) factors into actively managed equity portfolios in a meeting being held in Baltimore on January 14 at 11:45 am.
08:04 EDTExecutives' Club of Chicago to hold a luncheon meeting
Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon Meeting where David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Funds and Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at Mesirow Financial, provide their financial forecasts for economic growth and interest rates is being held in Chicago on January 14 at 12 pm.
07:51 EDTSEC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting to consider whether to adopt rules governing the security-based swap data repository ("SDR") registration process is being held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on January 14 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:47 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic outlook
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07:46 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains across global sovereigns overnight, and amid a sea of red in equities. The 30-year bond is outperforming, dropping 3 bps to 2.47%, just off record lows of 2.454% from July 2012. The 10-year yield fell to 1.85%, the lowest since May 2013. Helping underpin bonds was the drop in copper which fell to prices not seen since July 2009. Also, the European Court of Justice gave a thumbs up to QE from the ECB, indicating asset buying was legal "in principle." Peripheral bonds are outperforming in Europe, while the Bund is down over 3 bps to 0.44%. Meanwhile, the weakness in commodities continues to drag equities lower. Today's data on December retail sales will be closely monitored, along with import and export prices and business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged a massive 49.1% on a pick-up in refinancings. The Treasury reopens $13 B in 30-year bonds. And the Fed will release its Beige Book for the January 27, 28 policy meeting. The hawkish Fed president Plosser speaks on the economy.
07:43 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Risk off appears to be the case again for the Wednesday session, as commodity price weakness takes the spotlight, bringing with it cascading equity losses and record low yields for many sovereign debt issues. The dollar remains mixed, moving to new trend highs against the euro, as ECB QE looks to be about fully priced in now, while losing ground to the risk-averse yen. USD-CAD traded over 1.2000 for the first time in five-years. WTI oil prices are near $46/bbl after touching $45 overnight, while copper futures dove 15 cents/pound to $2.40. The U.S. calendar reveals December retail sales and December import/export prices, both at 8:30 EST, November business inventories at 10:00 EST, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 10:30 EST.
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