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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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November 27, 2014
04:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar has rebounded
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02:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar maintained a softer tone
FX Update: The dollar maintained a softer tone that was established after the round of soft data out of the U.S. yesterday, while firm capital expenditure numbers out of Australian aided the greenback lower in the case against the Aussie. EUR-USD saw a narrow range, though managed to recover from a dip below 1.2500. Yesterday's peak at 1.2531 was left unchallenged. USD-JPY posted an 11-day low at 117.26, while AUD-USD clocked a two-day high at 0.8609. Trading conditions were thin, and are likely to remain so due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday today.
November 26, 2014
23:05 EDTPhilippines Q3 GDP growth slowed to a 5.3% y/y pace
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16:50 EDTWeek of 12/5 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:25 EDTCanada Current Account Preview
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13:45 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:05 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are holding small gains
Treasury Action: Treasuries are holding small gains. However, yields inched off their earlier lows after the sloppy 7-year auction. The 10-year yield challenged 2.22% after the data generally disappointed. The 30-year headed down to 2.935%. These are the lowest rate in several weeks and improve the technical outlook heading into December. Also, yields may extend lower into the close ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, with many likely making it a 4-day weekend too considering the early close on Friday and the lack of data. Month-end buying will be supportive for the long end thanks to the big 0.13 year index extension. There's also bullish momentum from rallies in European debt, with Bunds hitting record low yields. Of interest ahead is the OPEC meeting Thursday, though many analysts now doubt there will be any cutbacks in supply. The ECB meeting next week will be crucial for market direction, with many looking for some indication of more QE. The November jobs report follows on Friday.
12:04 EDTWeek of 12/5 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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12:00 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for week ending November 21
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11:45 EDTTreasury's 7-year note auction results were mixed,
Treasury's 7-year note auction results were mixed, but by and large ok, especially given the very limited set up. Indeed, that and the advent of the thinning conditions ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday might have been responsible for the small tail to 1.960% versus 1.955% at the bid deadline. There were $76.4 B in bids for a solid 2.63 cover, better than the 2.42 last month, and the 2.54 average. Indirect bidders took a strong 50.0%, versus 46.6% previously and the 44.9% average. Direct bidders took 12.8%, while primary dealers accepted 37.1%.
11:40 EDTTreasury announced a $$50 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
Treasury announced a $$50 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday, that's a cut of $2 B versus this week's size, and the volume that has been in place for the past few weeks. The debt manager shaved the $2 B from the 6-month issue, bringing it down to $26 B. Supply lightens next week with just bills on tap.
11:20 EDTToday's deluge of U.S. reports
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10:40 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook
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10:40 EDTThe 0.7% U.S. new home sales rise
The 0.7% U.S. new home sales rise to a disappointing 458k October rate left a new cycle-high thanks only to big downward Q3 revisions that eliminated the prior cycle-high in September. The median price soared 16.5% in October however to a new all-time high of $305k, while inventories climbed to a four-year high of 212k. Analysts continue to see only a modest upward tilt in new home sales since the disappointing Q1-Q2 performance, with price gains led by a shift in the mix of homes, and rising inventories as new home construction continues to outpace the appetites of jittery buyers in the face of difficult financing conditions. Analysts expect a Q4 weather headwind for sales that leaves a restrained Q4 pace that matches the 436k (was 446k) average in Q3, as sales continue to undershoot the cycle-high 446k average in Q4 of 2013. Analysts're more generally seeing an erratic climb from cycle-lows for new, pending, and existing home sales, as well as housing starts, permits, and new home construction as discussed in our October 8 commentary.
10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.45
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 21
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10:25 EDTThe November Michigan sentiment pop
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: anther disappointing batch of data
Treasury Action: anther disappointing batch of data has taken some of the bloom off of the GDP-rose after the upward revisions to Q3 growth reported yesterday. Treasury yields remain biased lower with the 10-year yield hitting new lows for the day at 2.22%. Sources look for front-running of month-end buying, and short covering ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday (and basically the long weekend) to allow for a test below the 2.2% mark, possibly reaching the October 15 low of 2.13%.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved lower
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales index fell 1.1% to 104.1 in October
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales rose 0.7% to 458 in October
U.S. new home sales rose 0.7% to 458 in October after rising 0.4% to 455k in September (revised from 467k). The August gain was revised to 453 from 466k, for a net two month revision of -30k. Regionally, sales were higher in the Northeast and Midwest, but lower in the South and West. The months' supply of homes rose to 5.6 from 5.5 (revised from 5.3). The median sales price rose 16.5% to $305,000 from $261,700 (revised from $259,000). And it's up 15.4% y/y. Though the 458k is the fastest pace of sales since July 2008, the downward revisions to the prior months make for a disappointing trajectory.
10:07 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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10:07 EDTPending Home Sales Index data reported
October Pending Home Sales Index down -1.1% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
10:05 EDTU.S. consumer confidence rose to 88.8 in November
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10:00 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview:
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10:00 EDTU.S. Consumer Sentiment Preview:
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Preview: sentiment likely picked up to 90.0 in the final November reading from the University of Michigan survey, versus the bounce to 89.4 in the preliminary print from October's 86.9. The data have reflected a rise in confidence since August. The rally in equities, the improvement in the job market, and lower gas prices should help underpin.
09:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:58 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 11/23 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 40.7
09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI Business Barometer dropped to 60.8 in November
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09:45 EDTThe U.S. durables report proved modestly disappointing
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09:41 EDTEPA proposes tougher air quality standards
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1297
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1297 into the North American open, where it was pushed back by standing offers into the 1,1300 level. The pairing has since touched 1.1245 lows. WTI oil has eased into trend low territory, under $74/bbl, which should limit USD-CAD's downside for now. Initial support is seen into 1.1233, Tuesday's low.
09:37 EDTEarly action suggests another quiet trading day
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09:30 EDTToday's U.S. income report undershot estimates
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09:30 EDTThe 21k U.S. initial claims pop to 313k
The 21k U.S. initial claims pop to 313k in the fourth week of November followed a 1k drop to a slightly boosted 292k (was 291k) in the BLS survey week to leave a big late-month and potentially weather-related climb above the lean 284k BLS survey week reading from October and the particularly tight 266k cycle-low from early October. Claims are averaging 298k in November, following a lower 280k October average but similar prior averages of 294k in September, 303k in August, and 296k in July. The 292k BLS survey week reading exceeds recent BLS readings of 284k in October and 281k in September, but sits below prior readings of 299k in August and 303k in July. Analysts still expect a 215k November payroll rise that nearly matches the 214k October increase. November payrolls face divergent risks, given firmness in early-month readings for claims, producer sentiment and Michigan sentiment, but deteriorating values later in the month as gauged by consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed index that may reflect a weather-hit after the BLS survey week. Analysts had a firm trend for ADP through October, but analysts saw a big October drop in vehicle assemblies that should be followed by only a small November bounce.
09:00 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries extended gains
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08:45 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 0.4% in October
U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 0.4% in October following a 0.9% decline in September (revised from -1.1%). Transportation orders rose 3.4% after falling 3.3% previously (revised from -3.7%) and a 42.4% drop in August as the 73.3% July surge continues to be unwound. Excluding transportation, orders dropped 0.9% after a 0.2% gain in September (revised from -0.1%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 1.3% following a 1.3% drop previously (revised from -1.7%). Shipments inched up 0.1% last month after a 0.3% September gain, but were down 0.1% excluding transportation. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft fell 0.4%. Inventories increased 0.5%. The inventory-sales ratio rose to 1.65 from 1.64 (revised down from 1.65). The components of the report are looking soft.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased slightly
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08:40 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.2% in October, with spending up 0.2%
U.S. personal income rose 0.2% in October, with spending up 0.2% and both measures undershooting expectations The 0.2% income gain in September was not revised while the 0.2% drop in income was revised to unchanged. The PCE chain price index rose 0.1% m/m in October after the matching 0.1% gain in September. The core PCE chain price index rose 0.2% m/m in October after the 0.1% gain in September.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 21k to 313k in the week ended November 22
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08:35 EDTFutures drift lower following early economic reports
Stock futures drifted lower following the release of several economic data points. Durable goods orders rose 0.4% overall versus expectations of a decline of 0.6% ,while the core reading which removes transportation items, was down 0.9% versus expectations of an increase of 0.5%. There were 313K initial jobless claims versus the expected 288K, while continuing claims came in at 2.31M versus the expected 2.34M. Personal income rose 0.2% versus expectations of an increase of 0.4% and spending rose 0.2% versus the expected increase of 0.3%.
08:35 EDTU.S. stock index futures are mixed
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $74.13/bbl
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:44 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTU.S. mortgage applications fell 4.3% in the week ended November 21
U.S. mortgage applications fell 4.3% in the week ended November 21 following a 4.9% jump the week before. This included a 4.8% drop in the purchase index and a 3.5% decline in refinancings. The index has declined in 4 of the past 5 weeks after surging 11.6% in the week ended November 17. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage slid to 4.15% from 4.18%, while the 15-year rate declined to 3.35% versus 3.38%. The data continue to reflect a sluggish recovery in the housing market.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains overnight
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07:14 EDTStock futures quiet ahead of holiday kickoff
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07:05 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 26
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05:51 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading firmer
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03:00 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed
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November 25, 2014
16:35 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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16:30 EDTWeek of 12/6 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:30 EDTWeek of 12/6 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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16:30 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: October durable goods data will be released on Wednesday and orders are expected to decline a further 0.5% (median -0.6%) after their 1.1% decline in September. Shipments are expected to remain unchanged and inventories are expected to grow by 0.4% to match their September rate. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio at 1.65 from 1.64.
16:25 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling
Euro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling has cropped up, with a sale 4k in Blue December 76/78/81 call butterflies. But March 2015s are still a half-tick firmer at 99.74, while the deferreds are 1-5 ticks higher out the back now, picking up over the course of the session in the wake of the confidence plunge and 5-year auction windfall.
13:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied from lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields in the belly took a dive
Treasury Action: yields in the belly took a dive on the extremely well bid 5-year auction results, which priced right through when-issued levels and was accompanied by very firm cover and indirect bid components. The current 5-year cash yield sank from over the 1.60% level to session lows near 1.58%, compared to the 1.595% award rate on the new notes. CNBC's bond professor Santelli even managed to pull out an "A+" on the report card.
13:10 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction was Great with a capital G
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12:50 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview: hardly a discouraging word is heard
Treasury 5-year auction preview: hardly a discouraging word is heard on the auction. Contacts generally expect the sale to go well on the heels of yesterday's stellar 2-year offering, and bullish momentum globally. The wi trades at 1.610%, the rich end of the 1.595% to 1.66% range. Nevertheless, a big month-end extension, the advent of the holiday, and set-up for year-end should be supportive. Declines in the 10- and 30-year yields below recent range bottoms suggest ongoing gains across the curve and so bode well. Of course, continued strong support from overseas accounts from near record wides against core soverigns should bring in healthy demand. On the negative side, the lack of much concession and relatilvey rich yields may limit, as could curve flattening trends. Thinning trading conditions may prove detrimental too. The October offering was a dog, in large part due to its expensive pricing. The note was awarded at 1.567%, one of the lowest rates in over a year. The bid cover fell to 2.36 (2.70 average), the worst since July 2009. The indirect bid remained solid, however, at 47.8% (47.4% average).
12:50 EDTU.S. equities stumbled lower
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12:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has fallen to $74.36
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $13 B 3-year FRN reopening was standard fare
Treasury's $13 B 3-year FRN reopening was standard fare. The high discount margin was 0.068% versus the prior 0.053% for the $15 B October new issue. Bids totaled just over $52 B for a 4.0 cover, better than the 3.58 previously, though this month's ratio was flattered by the $2 B reduction in size. Indirect bidders took 51.8%, just missing the record high of 54.4% in September (though this issue has only been auctioned since January). The $40 B 4-week bill sale was well received. The bill stopped right on the screws at 0.06%. There were nearly $144.6 B in bids for a 3.65 cover, up from last week's 3.51 but below the 3.84 from two weeks ago. Indirect bidders accepted 18.9%.
11:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a variety of flows
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10:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook: the $35 B 5-year sale should be solid
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
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10:25 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence surprise drop to 88.7
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell 16 points to 4 in November
U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell 16 points to 4 in November after rising 6 points to 20 in October. This ties the lowest level since June, while the October reading was the highest since the 23 print in December 2010 (and compares to an all-time high of 27 from April 2010). The employment component slipped to 10 from 14, with wages at 15 from 11. New order volume was dropped to 1 from 22. Prices paid slowed to 1.57% from 2.22%, with prices received slipping 0.9% from, 1.23%. The 6-month business activity shipment index disappointed at 34 from 43, with the employment component at 22 from 18, new order volume at 36 from 41, and prices paid at 2.05 from 1.90%.
10:20 EDTFX Action USD-CAD touched session lows of 1.1232
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell further
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed range lows
Treasury Action: yields probed range lows following the unexpected dive in consumer confidence, which defied forecasts and pulled the T-note yield from the 2.30% area to lows of 2.285%. That puts 2.273% November lows within reach and a break would fracture the 2.4070-2.2730% range that has prevailed this month, though perhaps that will await the results of the 5-year auction later. The 2s-10s spread remains flatter near +176 bp.
10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell 5.4 points to 88.7 in November
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10:05 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
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10:05 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change data reported
November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change at 4 vs. consensus of 16
09:55 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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09:25 EDTTreasury neutrals were boosted
Treasury neutrals were boosted at the expense of both longs and shorts among "all clients" in JP Morgan's November 24 Treasury Client Survey, while "actives" survey showed the highest neutral since February. Among "all clients" neutrals jumped to 63 from 56, as longs were trimmed to 17 from 20 and shorts from 24 to 20. Among "actives" neutrals were boosted to 75 from 50, with longs trimmed to 17 from 25 and shorts slashed to 8 from 25. On balance, this suggests that heading into year-end investors have culled some of their directional bets on the bond market, which augers well for further rangebound activity nothwithstanding the Fed's self-interest in normalization policy in 2015.
09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index was unchanged at 214.0 in September
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09:10 EDTThe U.S. Q3 GDP growth boost to 3.9% from 3.5% beat estimates
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09:10 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index dipped 0.03% to 173.72 in September
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09:00 EDTU.S. home prices preview:
U.S. home prices preview: the S&P Case-Shiller home price index is forecast to sink 2.8% in September to 168.9 from 173.7, while the FHFA home price index is expected to rise 0.4% to 214.9 in September from 214.0 last. For more detail on the difference between these measures, see our home prices page.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are in positive territory
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied nicely
FX Action: The dollar rallied nicely after the improved Q3 GDP outcome, taking EUR-USD to near 1.2400 from over 1.2425, and USD-JPY to near 118.25 from just over 118.00. Equity futures have held on to their modest gains, while Treasury yields firmed a touch.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields sprang higher
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08:36 EDTFutures pointing to higher open after GDP report
Stock index futures continue to point toward a higher open for the broader market following the second reading on third quarter GDP growth. Q3 GDP growth was upwardly revised to 3.9% from the prior reading of 3.5%, beating expectations for the growth forecast to be pared to 3.3%. Q3 personal consumption was revised up to 2.2% growth from the prior 1.8% growth reading ,and the GDP price index was bumped up to 1.4% from 1.3% previously.
08:34 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 12:15
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08:29 EDTOPEC to hold a meeting
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08:25 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
U.S. GDP Preview: The second release of Q3 GDP is expected to remain unrevised at 3.5% (median 3.3%) following a 4.6% pace in Q2. Revisions to the component data should be offsetting with inventories being revised up by $10 B, consumption up $3 B and equipment up $2 B.
08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $75.25/bbl
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store index climbed 2.2%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store index climbed 2.2% in the week ended November 22 after a 0.2% increase previously. It's a third straight weekly gain, and is the largest increase since March 29 (3.6%). However, on an annual basis, the sales pace slowed slightly to 1.7% y/y versus 2.2% y/y for the prior week. According to the report, pre-Black Friday sales and colder weather helped sales, especially for winter goods.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are moderately higher globally
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:37 EDTFDA Anesthetic and Analgesic Drug Products to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses the risk of serious neurologic adverse reactions associated with epidural steroid injections (ESI) administered to reduce inflammation for pain management in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland on November 25 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:34 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:33 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:05 EDTFX Update: Consolidation prevailed in the dollar majors
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06:58 EDTOECD says euro zone facing deflation, stagnation risks, Reuters reports
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05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 25
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05:47 EDTDecember front month equity options last day to trade is December 19, 2014
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03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is steady
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02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar has seen a mixed performance
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November 24, 2014
20:00 EDTBoJ minutes revealed mixed views on further stimulus
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19:45 EDTJapan services PPI rose 0.1% in October to 102.5
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16:15 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
Canada Retail Sales Preview: Analysts expect retail sales, due Tuesday, to expand 0.5% in September after the unexpected 0.3% drop in August. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in September after the 0.3% drop in August. Vehicle sales saw the best September on record, according to dealer sales, suggesting that vehicle sales will provide a boost to September retail sales. Gasoline prices only saw a modest dip, which should be more than offset by the stimulative impact of lower gas prices on consumption across the board. A rise in total sales would underpin the view that the August GDP pull-back was due to temporary factors, as Canada's underlying growth outlook remains for continued modest expansion. GDP is expected to rise 0.4% m/m in September after the 0.1% dip in August.
14:05 EDTTreasury Action: the rally in Treasuries following the strong 2-year auction
Treasury Action: the rally in Treasuries following the strong 2-year auction has knocked the wi 5-year yield down to 1.615%. It traded as cheap as 1.66% on Friday. The richening in the yield might present some difficulties for buyers, though probably not a lot. An award rate around 1.615% would be on the rich side of the year's 1.80% to 1.513% range. Overseas demand should continue to fuel good results, however, especially as spreads to core sovereigns could continue to widen out given the diverging policy paths between the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ. The October 5-year stopped at 1.567% and garnered a 2.36 cover (2.70 average) and a 47.8% indirect bid (47.4% average).
13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some large block trades
Euro$ interest rate options: some large block trades included sales of 30k in Red March 82 puts vs 4k in March 2016s at 98.95, along with a sale of 30k in Red June 77 puts vs 3.6k in June 2016s at 98.70 (sold both). Underlying futures are rebounding, with the March 2015 flat at 99.74, while the nearby deferreds are 0.5-1.5 ticks firmer.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $28 B 2-year auction was very well received
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short-yields sank after the solid 2-year
Treasury Action: short-yields sank after the solid 2-year auction results, which provided a promising start to the series this shortened week, despite the headwinds from firmer stocks. The current 2-year yield eased from the 0.52% area to 0.505%, compared to the 0.542% award rate on the new notes. The 2s-10s spread is trading near +181 bp.
12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has topped the 1.1300 mark
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has ranged between 118.19 and 118.48
FX Action: USD-JPY has ranged between 118.19 and 118.48 through the N.Y. session, and after breaking above the 118 threshold in London trade, has continued to find buyers over the figure. Light intra day stops are expected at 118.60, with Thursday's 118.97 the next natural target. Exporter offers are said to be building into 119.00 now.
12:05 EDTHeir Apparent of the Bond Empire Jeff Gundlach
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11:50 EDTTreasury's 3- and 6-month bill sale saw relatively light demand
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11:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more mixed positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: more mixed positioning included the purchase of 2k in Short March straddles (volality), rumored to be a west coast fund, though that may be losing some cachet. Also spotted was a bearish purchase of 2k in Short March 85/87/90 put butterflies and a bullish package trade purchase of 1.5k in Short March 91/92/93 call butterflies vs sale of 2k in March 2015 96 puts. There was a bearish purchase of 5k in Green December 80 puts as well. December 2014s are flat at 99.7625, while deferreds are 0.5-2.0 ticks lower.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday. The size is unchanged for a third straight week, and brings the total auction volume to $197 B, with $92 B in bills and $105 B in coupons (including the FRN). Tuesday will be the heaviest day with $88 B in sales. The Treasury is auctioning $52 B in 3- and 6-month bills and $28 B in 2-year notes today.
10:45 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index was steady at 10.5 in November
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10:36 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index data reported
November Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index at 10.5 vs. consensus of 9.0
10:16 EDTUBS U.S. software analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
Euro$ interest rate options: mixed activity included sales of 2k in Short December 92 straddles (volatility) and a liquidation of 6k in June 93/96 put 2x3s. On the bullish side was a combination 1x2 package purchase of 2.5k in September 96/97 call 1x2s with a purchase of 2k in December 2015 96/97 call 1x2s. Underlying futures are modestly lower in line with the latest uptick on stocks, as the December 2014 contract is roughly flat at 99.765, while the deferreds are 0.5-3.0 ticks lower out the curve.
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI fell to 56.3 in November
U.S. Markit flash services PMI fell to 56.3 in November versus October's 57.1 and September's 58.9. The index hit an all-time high of 61.0 in June of this year. That brought the composite index down to 56.1 from 57.2 in October and 59.0 in September. This indicator also reached a record high of 61.0 in June.
09:50 EDTTreasury Futures Action: heavy volume trade
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09:48 EDTPMI Services Flash Level data reported
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09:42 EDTDow opens at another all-time high
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09:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: there's another healthy offering slate today
U.S. corporate bond update: there's another healthy offering slate today as companies rush to take advantage of the ongoing trend of low rates and as year-end comes into view. The offerings will also compete with the Treasury's $105 B in coupon sales. Kinder Morgan headlines with a big 5-part deal, all of benchmark size, including 3-, 5-, 10.5-, 20-, and 30.5-year paper. Perrigo Finance has a $1.6 B deal including 7-, 10-, and 30-year debt. Export Development Canada is selling $1 B in 5-year notes. Korea East-West Power has a benchmark 5.5-year offering. Just over $40 B priced last week to bring the November total to $128.5 B.
09:10 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Staying Strong in November:
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1257 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1257 highs in early North American trade, moving up during the London morning session from overnight lows of 1.1225. The modest rally largely coincided with oil's move down to near $76.00/bbl, from intra day highs near $77.00. With nothing of import on either the Canadian or U.S. calendars this morning, trade is likely to remain quiet, though a band of USD-CAD offers beginning at 1.1270 could keep the upside contained through the morning.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities were buoyed by repeat gains
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08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago national activity index fell to 0.14 in October
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08:36 EDTNomura retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:34 EDTFutures remain higher ahead of open
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08:08 EDTJPMorgan U.S. telecom services analyst holds an Analyst/Industry conference call
U.S. Telecom Services Analyst Cusick, along with Latin America Telecom Analyst Baggio and Asian Telecom Analyst Sullivan, provide an update on the U.S. Tower industry and an overview of the Global Tower Market on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 24 at 8 am.
08:03 EDTDA Davidson banks and thrifts analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Banks & Thrifts Analyst Tenner provides a weekly industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 24 at 11 am.
08:02 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 0.5% at $76.09/bbl
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a luncheon meeting
Value Investing Idea Roundtable Luncheon Meeting is being held in Minneapolis on November 24 at 1 pm.
07:55 EDTFDA Anesthetic and Analgesic Drug Products to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses the risk of serious neurologic adverse reactions associated with epidural steroid injections (ESI) administered to reduce inflammation for pain management in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on November 24 and November 25, with the meeting beginning on November 24 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly lower, in conjunction with modest losses overseas. Trading was quiet, however, with Japanese markets closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday. Gains in equities have weighed a bit on bonds after a much stronger than expected German Ifo sentiment reading. ECB's Nowotny also suggested a steady stance from the bank which limited enthusiasm for more stimulus. Additionally, the Treasury market is seeing some concessions ahead of this week's heavy supply with about $200 B on the auction block over the holiday abbreviated week. The auctions kick off today with the $28 B 2-year offering. Today's data calendar is light with just the Markit flash services PMI for November and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing index. Neither should be market movers.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:23 EDTMarket begins week at new all-time high
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer
FX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer, though lost ground to the euro following an unexpected rise in the November Gemran Ifo sentiment survey. EUR-USD recovered from an Asia-session dip to 1.2362, leaving the Nov-6 trend low at 1.2358 unchallenged, and extended gains to a peak of 1.2414 following the Ifo report. ECB's Constanzio also said that the Eurozone is not at risk of sliding into "full deflation," though the inflation rate is "dangerously" low. EUR-CHF traded slightly firmer, lifting to the 1.2025-30 area, after SNB's Jordan repeated his opposition to gold initiative, arguing that it would impede the central bank's ability to defend the 1.2000 franc cap. USD-JPY traded firmer, breaching above 118.00 and making a high of 118.38, surpassing Friday's peak by a couple of pips. The move followed a Liquidity-zapped session in Asia in the absence of Japanese markets, which were closed due to a public holiday. The dollar, meanwhile, traded moderately firmer against sterling and the Aussie, among other currencies.
06:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has traded firmer
FX Action: USD-JPY has traded firmer, breaching above 118.00 and making a high of 118.38, surpassing Friday's peak by a couple of pips. The move follows a Liquidity-zapped session in Asia in the absence of Japanese markets, which were closed due to a public holiday. PM Abe's rush for a new mandate for Abenomics (elections to be held Dec-14) has driven the recent across-the-board decline in the yen, which saw USD-JPY log a seven-year high at 118.96 last Thursday. Analysts expect divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan will remain broadly supportive of USD-JPY, anticipating move on 120.00.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 24
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.33%, DAX up 0.75%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $76.79, natural gas down 5.18%, gold at $1196 an ounce, copper down 0.06%.
05:52 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 27.60, 50-day moving average is 31.08
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03:30 EDTChina is ready to cut interest rates again
China is ready to cut interest rates again and loosen lending restrictions, according to a Reuters report citing an unnamed economists at a government think-tank involved in policy discussions, who is quoted as saying, "top leaders have changed their views." This follows Friday's unexpected rate cut, which was the first cut in two years, and the Reuters source said the PBoC has shifted its focus to broad-based stimulus and are open to more rate cuts and a cut in the reserve requirement ratios at banks. Policymakers are concerned that falling prices could cause a spiral in debt defaults, business failures and job losses. GDP dropped to 7.3% in Q3, down from 7.5% in Q2 and policymakers are wanting to prevent a drop below 7.0%.
03:25 EDTChina is ready to cut interest rates again
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November 23, 2014
18:23 EDTEU set to launch stimulus fund to encourage private sector investment, WSJ says
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15:08 EDTChina may do more rate cuts on deflation fear, Reuters says
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November 22, 2014
06:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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06:59 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
November Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 . Current consensus is 90.0
06:59 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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06:59 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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06:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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06:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
October Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
06:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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06:59 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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06:59 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 16
06:59 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
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06:59 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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06:59 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
Real GDP will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 3.3% for the quarter
06:59 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
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06:59 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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06:59 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
October Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.50
06:59 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Speech to be released at 19:30
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06:59 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard Speech to be released at 14:00
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November 21, 2014
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasuries showed some predictive prowess on Friday into the teeth of a screaming rally on European equities and opening bounce on Wall Street following dovish signals from China and Europe. Yields topped out quickly and reversed lower while stocks stateside were still on the fence, gathering momentum lower as equity bulls pulled back in their horns in front of Thanksgiving illiquidity next week. Bunds also rallied and the Bund/T-note spread stretched to recent wides before snapping back.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade of the coming week in Treasuries
Treasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade of the coming week in Treasuries, according to sourecs. The combination of a big month-end Treasury duration index and shorter dated supply, look for the 2s-10s and the 5s-30s to narrow further. The Barclays' Treasury index is estimated extending out 0.13 years, versus a 0.09 year average, as it's a refunding month with new 10s and 30s. The low inflation environment should also underpin longer dated debt instruments. As for supply, the Treasury is auctioning $28 B in 2-year notes, $35 B in 5s, and $29 B in 7s. The 2s-10s spread is at 181 bps, just off the 179 from November 7, which was the lowest since June 2013. The 5s-30s gap is at 141 bps, the lowest since October 1, 2008.
14:20 EDTSt. Louis Fed dove Bullard is complaining that he was misread
St. Louis Fed dove Bullard is complaining that he was misread when he hinted at extending bond buying past its October deadline last month after the global margin call on October-15, which was followed by a sharp stock market rally, according to the WSJ Real Time Economics blog. He claims that his Bloomberg interview, which mulled a low cost insurance policy of further $15 B/month stimulus, was not inconsistent with his subsequent praise of the Fed decision to end bond purchases. To wit: "I'm one that wants the committee to be nimble and be able to react to data that's coming in. So maybe it's more natural for me to say analysts can shade our position one way or another in response to macroeconomic developments."
13:50 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility decreases on stable price movement
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12:30 EDTU.S. equities are cooling off
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11:55 EDTTreasury Action: the rally in bonds is limiting the chance to set up for supply
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took a look at the overnight low
FX Action: USD-JPY took a look at the overnight low of 117.35, stopping at 117.38 before bouncing to 117.55. A layer of bids is reportedly sitting between 117.40 and 117.30, which appeared to stop the bleeding. The pairing had topped out at 118.07 in early trade, where domestic selling interest was noted.
11:04 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
November Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at 7 vs. consensus of 6
10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly focusing on futures rolls
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10:30 EDTTreasury Action: disconnect from the stock rally
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10:10 EDTFed's looming jobs vs inflation conundrum
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09:47 EDTMarket opens with new records following China rate cut, ECB pledge
Stock futures were strong throughout the pre-market trading session on the heels of a rate cut in China and the suggestion by ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready with additional stimulus measures. The market opened with a triple digit rise for the Dow and nearly 1% gains as well for the other major equity indices. In early trading, the Dow is up 152 points, the Nasdaq is up 37 points and the S&P is up 17 points.
09:45 EDTFed Governor Tarullo warned that physical commodities can pose unique risks
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell
FX Action: USD-CAD fell in the aftermath of the much hotter Canadian CPI report, taking the pairing to 1.1192 lows, down from 1.1260 ahead of the release. The move marks the lowest since the end of October, with support now seen at the October 31 low of 1.1185. Another significant move for USD-CAD, as it fell from 1.1326 highs following the news that China cut rates. The rebound in commodity prices drove the CAD higher then.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are back in rally mode
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08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up to $77.75/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up to $77.75/bbl, up from $75.62 lows, on the back of China's rate cut, posting eight-session highs in the process. Adding to the rally has been a shift in sentiment toward an OPEC production cut next week, where members Venezuela and Libya have indicated they are agreeable to reducing output. Initial resistance is seen just under $78, where prices peaked on November 11-12.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are fractionally lower as equities surge
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are fractionally lower as equities surge after dovish comments from ECB's Draghi and a surprise rate cut by China. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.35% Trading volume was strong. European sovereigns are modestly higher with the Bund yield slipping below 0.80%. Reviving hopes for QE was Draghi's statement that "indicators have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low," and he indicated that the Bank might have to "broaden even more the channels through which analysts intervene." Meanwhile, the Fed's Williams said low global growth with low inflation is a risk in comments from London. There wasn't much data overnight and today's U.S. calendar is empty save for the KC Fed manufacturing index. Treasury supply is heavy next week and could leave Treasury yields biased higher, especially if Wall Street continues higher.
07:31 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:30 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Governor Tarullo
Fedspeak is due from Governor Tarullo who will testify at a hearing on "Physical Commodities" before a Senate subcommittee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs" from 9:30 ET.
07:10 EDTFX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher
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07:08 EDTChina rate cut, ECB statement lift futures
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07:05 EDTFX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher
FX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher. One was a shock interest rate cut by the PBoC, which drove stock and commodity prices higher and saw AUD-USD spike nearly 100 pips to a three-day high at 0.8722. USD-CAD concurrently dipped to a three-day low at 1.1277. The other market-moving development was provided by ECB boss Draghi, who said, "indicators have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low," and that, "if on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough" to achieve price stability, "analysts would step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which analysts intervene." That sent EUR-USD tumbling to a one-week low at 1.2424, thereafter seeing little bounce. USD-JPY, meanwhile, was largely unaffected by the China rate move, and held in a choppy range in the mid-to-upper 117s and 118.00. The pair had dropped from levels above 118.30 during the Tokyo session after Japan's Finance Minister Aso said that yen weakening over the past week had been "too rapid."
06:38 EDTDraghi indicates more stimulus measures on the way, NY Times reports
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06:20 EDTStock markets have rallied on the China rate cut shock
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06:15 EDTChina's PBoC unexpectedly cut interest rates
China's PBoC unexpectedly cut interest rates, slashing the one-year lending rate by 40 bp and the one-year deposit rate by 25 bp. The move has a similar shock impact as the BoJ's unexpected expansion of its QQE program had last month, and likely reflects Chinese policymakers' determination to keep growth above 7.0% y/y (Q3 GDP dipped to 7.3% from 7.5%).
05:50 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 21
Globex S&P futures are recently up 14.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.33%, DAX up 1.70%. WTI Crude oil is at $75.65, natural gas down 2.47%, gold at $1189 an ounce, copper down 0.05%.
05:43 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is today, November 21, 201
04:34 EDTWeek of 11/24 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:34 EDTWeek of 12/3 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:40 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY has seen volatile trade
FX Update: USD-JPY has seen volatile trade that left a high at 118.36 and a low at 117.35 before settling around 117.80. Japan's Finance Minister Aso said that yen weakening over the past week as "too rapid,," which prompted a round of yet buying. Aso said analysts was against "rapid FX moves" whether up or down, which are unwelcome, as forex rates should be determined by the market. Elsewhere, the other dollar majors saw pretty subdued trade. EUR-USD oscillated in the mid-1.25s holding well within recent ranges. The rebound in U.S. Treasury yields after solid Philly Fed index, home sales LEI figures yield improve the dollar's yield advantage, though this hasn't fed through to the forex market. AUD-USD carved out a two-day high of 0.8651, aided by steadier commodity prices, before ebbing back to the low 0.86s.
November 20, 2014
21:25 EDTJapan Finance Minister Aso warned against "rapid FX moves"
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16:48 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:45
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16:48 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:30
16:48 EDT Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser Speech to be released at 12:30
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16:39 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:39 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 08:15
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16:39 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 11/10 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at $50.6B
16:39 EDTWeek of 11/28 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:39 EDTWeek of 11/29 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury yields rebounded from lows on Thursday after a spate of U.S. economic updates helped put a floor under them following a series of dour China and Eurozone PMI releases that weighed on stocks globally. Alibaba also debuted a large $8 B multi-tranche bond offering that crowded the market before any unwinding of hedge locks. The Philly Fed index virtually doubled to 40.8, along with a 1.5% gain in home sales and 0.9% LEI jump, to help prop up Wall Street from opening lows, which followed on the heels of a drop in Markit PMI, 0.2% rise in core CPI and 2k dip in jobless claims.
14:40 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: leaning to the bearish side
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13:10 EDTTreasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopen was well received
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS preview: the auction is likely to see tepid results
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12:35 EDTU.S. corporate debt: Alibaba launched its $8 B 6-trancher
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD managed 1.1294 lows
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11:55 EDTTreasury announced a $92 B package of coupon auctions for next week
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11:55 EDTA fat-finger surge on the VIX equity volatility index
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11:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put buying
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10:55 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
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10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed surge to a 21-year high of 40.8
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending November 14
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10:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy volume trade
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10:20 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November after falling 1.8 points to 20.7 in October. This is the strongest print going all the way back to December 1993. The employment component bounced back to 22.4 from 12.1, and is just above the 21.2 in September. The workweek bounced back to 7.8 from -1.3. New orders more than doubled to 35.7 from 17.3. Prices paid declined to 17.3 from 27.6, with prices received falling to 11.5 from 20.8. The 6-month business conditions index rose more moderately to 57.7 from 54.5 and is down from the 66.4 in August (which was the highest since June 1992). The 6-month employment index rose to 31.5 from 28.0, with capital expenditures at 23.0 from 18.9 and prices paid at 35.5 from 32.9. The data are much stronger than expected but probably overstate the momentum in manufacturing nationally.
10:20 EDTU.S. index of leading indicators climbed 0.9% to 105.2 in October
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher
FX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher after the amazingly strong Philly Fed report. In addition, leading indicators were much stronger than forecasts, while existing homes sales were strong as well. EUR-USD fell to 1.2525 from 1.2550, as USD-JPY moved toward 118.25 from 118.00. Wall Street turned mixed from being broadly lower.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rose 1.5% to 5.26 in October
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10:04 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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10:04 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:04 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
October Leading Indicators up 0.9% vs. consensus of 0.5% for the month
10:00 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI slipped 1.2 points to 54.7 in November
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09:55 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
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09:55 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:50 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:50 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level data reported
November PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level at 54.7 vs. consensus of 56.5
09:40 EDTTreasury Action: risk aversion has crept into the mix
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD blipped higher
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09:05 EDTThe flat October U.S. CPI headline figure
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09:05 EDTFed Governor Tarullo discussed "liquidity regulation"
Fed Governor Tarullo discussed "liquidity regulation", arguing for regularized and slightly lagged disclosure from banks on standardized liquidity requirements. This could require banks to aggregate qualitative and quantitative assessments of liquidity, though the plan remains unclear at this stage and he's pretty comfortable that such plans won't clash with the Basel liquidity requirements. See his speech.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
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08:50 EDTThe 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 291k
The 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 291k in the BLS survey week of November trimmed the 15k bounce to 293k (was 290k) from a lower 278k at the start of the month, as claims oscillate around the lean 284k BLS survey week reading from October. Claims remain above the particularly tight 266k cycle-low from early October. Claims are averaging 291k in November, following a lower 280k October average but higher prior averages of 294k in September, 303k in August, and 296k in July. Today's 291k BLS survey week reading sits above recent BLS readings of 284k in October and 281k in September, but below prior readings of 299k in August and 303k in July. Analysts expect a 215k November payroll rise that nearly matches the 214k October increase. Payrolls face upside risk from a firm trend for claims and ADP, sustained strength in producer sentiment, and an October consumer confidence climb that is likely extending into November, given gains in available November measures such as Michigan sentiment and the Bloomberg weekly index.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded following firmer core CPI
Treasury Action: yields rebounded following firmer core CPI, while initial jobless claims sank just slightly. The T-note yield shot up to test 2.34% from the 2.32% area earlier and session lows of 2.31%. That still leaves the yield cap near 2.38-2.40% intact for now, pending the second round of Philly, home sales and LEI reports. The 2s-10s spread is trading inside +182 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. CPI was unchanged in October while the core rate rose 0.2%
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08:40 EDTFutures remain lower following economic reports
Stock futures remain lower as the market follows in the footsteps of the European averages which have declined. There were 291K Weekly initial jobless claims versus expectations of 284K, while continuing claims came in at 2.33M versus expectations of 2.37M. The Consumer Prices Index came in at 0% for October versus expectations of a drop of 0.1%. The core reading which removes food and energy was up 0.2% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 2k to 291k in the week ended November 15
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08:34 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 11/15 Jobless Claims at 291K vs. consensus of 284K
08:30 EDTFedspeak is back in the mix
Fedspeak is back in the mix starting with Fed Governor Tarullo, who will address "Liquidity Regulation" at the ClearningHouse Annual Conference from 7:45 ET. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester will discuss "Forward Guidance and Communications in U.S. Monetary Policy" from 13:30 ET. SF Fed dove Williams will take part in a panel discussion after the close on "Macroeconomic Rebalancing for Sustainable Growth" from 20:30 ET.
08:20 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries surged higher overnight
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims are expected to drop back 12k to 278k (median 280k) in the week-ended November 15. Forecast risk is upward, as claims should rebound slightly after hitting a new recent low. Continuing claims are expected to fall 20k to 2,372k for the week-ended November 8. preview for more.
08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude ranged between $74.17 and $74.88 overnight, currently trading at $74.63. Softer China and EU PMI data weighed some on prices, though solid support remains in place at $74.00. Traders say a N.Y. close under $74.00 will be needed to bring the $70.00 level into focus.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI preview:
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08:10 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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07:54 EDTBofA/Merrill Mexican economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:39 EDTFormer Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to speak at conference
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07:37 EDTFDIC holds a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking
Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking will provide an update on the FDIC's community bank initiatives with new research on branch banking in the U.S. presented by the Division of Insurance and Research is being held at FDIC Arlington, VA on November 20 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTSEC holds SEC Government-Business Forum on Small Business Capital Formation
The SEC holds the SEC Government-Business Forum on Small Business Capital Formation where topics will include secondary market liquidity for securities of small businesses and the definition of accredited investor at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on November 20 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:27 EDTFDA to hold a meeting of the Science Board
The Science Board will be provided with progress reports from two subcommittees, the Commissioner’s Fellowship Program Evaluation Subcommittee and the Science Moving Forward Subcommittee in a meeting to be held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on November 20 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:25 EDTFederal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo is keynote speaker at conference
Federal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo is the keynote speaker at The Clearing House Annual Conference 2014 being held in New York on November 20 at 7:45 am.
07:18 EDTFutures lower as European data disappoints
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07:17 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
dbAccess Japan Conference is being held in London, England on November 20-21.
07:16 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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06:55 EDTFX Update:
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06:31 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 20
Globex S&P futures are recently down 7.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.07%, DAX down 0.69%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $74.33, natural gas up 2.29%, gold at $1195 an ounce, copper down 0.87%.
06:20 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:10 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY rallied to a new seven-year high
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November 19, 2014
21:40 EDTA 5.3 earthquake registered in Japan
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21:05 EDTChina's manufacturing PMI (HSBC) fell to 50.0 in November
China's manufacturing PMI (HSBC) fell to 50.0 in November in the preliminary or "flash" report from the final 50.4 in October. The output index fell to contractionary 49.5 in November from a final 50.7 in October. The pull-back in the index to the 50.0 contraction/expansion level underpins projections that the growth pace of China's economy is slowing. While some of the slowing is intentional on the part of the government as it seeks to transition China to a more balanced growth composition, the risk remains that unintentional slowing may become more pronounced.
20:40 EDTJapan's exports rose 9.6% y/y in October
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20:39 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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17:27 EDTWeek of 11/28 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:43 EDTFed members initially had different views on 'considerable time' phrase
All but one member of the Federal Open Market Committee ended up supporting the committee's statement on the outlook for interest rates following its last meeting, although some expressed concerns initially, the FOMC's minutes released today stated. Committee members initially disagreed on whether to reiterate that it would probably be appropriate to maintain the current 0%-0.25% target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of the asset purchase program in October, especially if inflation continues to run below the committee's 2% longer run goal. Some participants favored eliminating the statement, saying that it could be misconstrued to suggest that the FOMC's actions would not be based on incoming data. Other participants felt that the "considerable time" phrase was useful in conveying the committee's outlook, while a couple felt that removing the phrase could signal a significant change in the Fed's policy, resulting in a tightening of financial conditions. A couple of others felt that the current language could suggest an earlier increase in rates was likely to be appropriate. In the end, however, all but one member supported maintaining the considerable time phrase. Meanwhile, "a number" of members said that it could be helpful for the committee to issue further clarification of the bank's approach to interest rates soon. Members generally agreed that the economy had made enough progress to justify concluding the Fed's asset purchase program at the end of October. On the economy, participants felt that the unemployment rate would continue to decline over the medium term, and anticipated that inflation would be held down by energy price declines in the near-term. However, members felt that inflation would increase towards the committee's 2% goal in coming years, although a few said that it might run below the Fed's objective for quite some time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. A number of participants said that economic growth might be slower than expected over the medium term if overseas economies or the financial situation deteriorates significantly.
14:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: there wasn't much to be gleaned from the FOMC minutes
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14:35 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell broadly
FX Action: The dollar fell broadly after the release of the FOMC minutes, though quickly snapped back to pre-minutes levels. EUR-USD spiked up to stop at 1.2600, before falling back under 1.2560, as USD-JPY dell to 117.50 from 117.70, before heading back to 117.75. With not much news in the release, the knee-jerk dollar reaction petered out in a hurry, and on net, the greenback is just a touch lower than it was.
14:20 EDTWeek of 11/28 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC minutes: the tone was mixed and there isn't much guidance
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed from highs
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13:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's research director Altig says July is the time to start thinking
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13:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar has steadied
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13:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put buying picked up
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12:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: ERBD's $1 B 5-year global
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11:45 EDTFOMC Minutes preview:
FOMC Minutes preview: the minutes from the October 28, 29 policy meeting will reveal the mixed views of the Committee, and hence could suggest a less hawkish bent than the policy statement. That was the case in the September minutes when the mentioned the weaker conditions in Europe and the stronger dollar militated against the hawkish tone in the statement. Remember the FOMC ended QE last month, as widely expected, and also retained the "considerable time" language. It also upgraded its outlook on the labor market and inflation, which may have been done more to appease the two hawkish dissenters (who indeed moved to the sidelines). The minutes are likely to show the frustration in boosting inflation to the 2% target level, and as Kocherlakota has warned, some fears over lost credibility. Interestingly, the Fed discounted the downdraft in energy and commodity prices in the policy statement while appealing to stable inflation expectations, making the distinction between "market-based" prices measures and expectations data. There shouldn't be qualms about the improved labor market outlook. The minutes should again touch on the slower growth in Europe and the stronger dollar, as was a key in the September minutes, since those conditions haven't changed over the past six weeks. The markets will continue look to the minutes for hints on the timing of the first rate hike, as well as when the "considerable time" phrase could be removed -- maybe December?
11:10 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97
Oil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97 lows from $94.50 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 1.0 M bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 M bbls actually rose 1.0 M bbls, while distillate stocks were down 2.1 M bbls, versus expectations for a 1.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 91.2% from 90.1%. Support remained intact under $94, with prices subsequently rebounding to pre-data level.
11:10 EDTRumors of a "NY think tank" report on Japan
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 14
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to climb
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10:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: trade is "pretty quiet"
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: weakness in European bonds is weighing on Treasuries
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some larger block trades
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09:51 EDTJPMorgan's Japanese strategist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Japanese Research & Strategist Jesper Koll discusses Japanese equity market strategy and snap elections on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 20 at 9 am.
09:47 EDTJPMorgan healthcare services analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Services & Managed Care Analyst Lake discusses hospitals and the Supreme Court of the United States on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 19 at 11 am.
09:44 EDTFutures drift lower, leading to lower open for broader market
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1356
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1356, highs of the week, just ahead of parked offers at 1.1360. The soft commodities backdrop has been an anchor on the CAD of late, and oil prices are likely to remain soft, at least until next week's OPEC meeting, where there appears to be a slight chance the cartel will cut production. In the meantime, USD-CAD may bide its time between 1.13 and 1.14.
09:36 EDTJPMorgan homebuilding analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:20 EDTThe small 2.8% October U.S. housing starts drop
The small 2.8% October U.S. housing starts drop from an upwardly-revised September level was roughly in line with assumptions, alongside a 4.8% permits pop that modestly beat estimates to leave an encouraging report overall. The positive tilt was fed by strength in the important single-family component, and a welcome bounce in the critical starts under construction series, as well as starts in the South, after a poor Q3 performance. Starts under construction, which drive new home construction, rose 1.4% in October after a 0.1% (was 0.4%) September rise and a 0.1% (was -0.3%) August figure. Analysts haven't seen a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Unfortunately, today's report will likely be followed by a big weather-hit in November, and possibly through the winter overall if the polar vortex proves as stubborn this winter as last. More generally, the single-digit pace of recovery in the 2014 housing market has proven disappointing on net, as the sector faces an ongoing headwind from mortgage market dysfunction and investor caution, and weather-depressed Q4 figures would add to the disappointment.
09:15 EDTFed under fire from both Left and Right:
Fed under fire from both Left and Right: according to WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, "What's striking this week is how much pressure the Fed is also facing from the left, particularly the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, has introduced legislation that would require that the New York Fed president be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, subjecting the powerful position to a political process which it now escapes. Under current law, the president of the New York Fed is chosen by its own board of directors, with heavy consultation from Washington's congressionally confirmed Board of Governors. Meantime, Senate Democrats Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, and Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, have penned a commentary for the WSJ's editorial pages calling on the President to nominate tough bank supervisors to fill two empty seats on the Board of Governors. Stars may be aligning for a new bipartisan challenge to Fed governance and its oversight of the nation's banking system."
09:00 EDTU.S. equities turned lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased from highs
Treasury Action: yields eased from highs briefly after the drop in housing starts that caught the markets slightly offguard, though permits were sharply higher and it seems unlikely that too much will be read into this data. The T-note yield continues to probe the 2.35% area, well up from 2.31% Asian lows, but below the 2.38-2.40% threshold that has put a lid on yields in November. The 2s-10s spread is out to +183 bp again.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts fell 2.8% to 1.009 M in October
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08:15 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
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08:08 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "Opportunities for a Private and Competitive Sustainable Flood Insurance Market" with SVP Gray of the WNC Insurance Services on November 19 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
08:06 EDTFederal Open Market Committee issues minutes of meeting
FOMC releases minutes from October 28-29 meeting on November 19 at 2 pm.
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $74.80/bbl
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08:04 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York Vice President to speak at conference
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08:03 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold luncheon meeting
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08:02 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a meeting
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08:01 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a luncheon
Glenn Reynolds,CEO and a Co-Founder of CreditSights, participates in a Luncheon Meeting entitled, "High Yield--Risk vs Return" being held in Philadelphia on November 19 at 12 pm.
08:00 EDTThe SEC to hold a meeting
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07:57 EDTFDA to hold a meeting
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:53 EDTVertical Research Partners to hold a conference
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07:50 EDTFX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed
FX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed, the former amid commodity price declines and the latter following the BoJ policy statement and dovish tone of Kuroda's post-meeting press conference. Both currencies lost ground to the euro and dollar, among others. Amid this backdrop, EUR-USD traded higher amid general euro strength, with EUR-JPY extending further into six-year high territory above 147.50, while EUR-USD breached yesterday's peak in making a high of 1.2547, though upside progress subsequently stalled. EUR-CHF remained heavy, holding the line little more than 10 pips above the SNB's 'no-go' marker at 1.2000. A Bloomberg survey found a consensus expectation for the SNB to maintain the franc's cap until 2017, which is when the ECB is expected to start exiting from ultra-accommodative policies.
07:47 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTMitsubishi UFJ to hold a conference
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07:41 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 4.9%
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries edged lower overnight
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07:21 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:15 EDTFutures quiet following yesterday’s record close
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07:13 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTUBS to hold a conference
2014 India Conference is being held in Mumbai, India on November 19-21.
07:07 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
2014 Global Foreign Exchange Workshop is being held in Washington, D.C. on November 19.
06:45 EDTFX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed
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06:05 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 19
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.32%, DAX up 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $74.69, natural gas up 0.47%, gold at $1198 an ounce, copper up 0.28%.
03:05 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish
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03:00 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish
BoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish in his post-meeting press conference, which of course was to be expected following last month's out-of-the-blue expansion of the QQE program. He said that "there is a chance core CPI will fall below one percent," and for how long "depends on various conditions at the time," and that "last month's monetary easing was purely aimed at ensuring that our price target will be achieved." At the same time he downplayed the unexpected negative outcome of Q3 GDP by stressing that impact of the April sales tax hike "is subsiding as a whole," and that "companies are maintaining their upbeat investment stance against the background of robust profits." He avoided criticising the government's decision to delay a second sales tax hike, but noted that "it's important for Japan as a nation to maintain market trust in its finances."
02:05 EDTFX Action: Another day, another seven-year high in USD-JPY
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00:05 EDTJapan all industry index rose 1.0% m/m in September
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November 18, 2014
23:35 EDTBoJ maintained it ultra easing posture,
BoJ maintained it ultra easing posture, as expected, following the surprise stimulus in October. However, the Board voted 8-1 in favor of the decision this time, compared to the 5-4 tally in October. The BoJ statement noted that "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," though that seems a bit outdated after the contraction in Q3 GDP which put the nation into recession. Core CPI is expected to hold around its current level for the time being, according to the policy statement, while inflation expectations are seen rising longer term. However, it was also indicated that the potential for prolonged low-inflation in Europe is a risk, The Bank will monitor risks and adjust policy as appropriate.
22:26 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 09:30
22:26 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 10:00
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16:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $55.6 B in net U.S. assets
U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $55.6 B in net U.S. assets in September, from a downwardly revised $44.8 B in August (was $74.5 B). However, overseas accounts also purchased $164.3 B in net long-term assets versus August's $52.1 B. There was relatively heavy demand across asset classes, with accounts nearly doubling their purchases of Treasury coupons, buying $48.1 B versus $25.7 B previously. Foreigners bought $20.7 B in corporate bonds after dumping $7.3 B in August, while they also picked up $21.0 B in agency bonds, and $4.4 B in stocks. Foreign official accounts reduced their holdings of Treasury coupon s by $17.4 B, with Japan the largest seller at $9.0 B, followed by Thailand (-$7.3 B) and Belgium (-$6.0 B). France and oil exporters were the biggest buyers of Treasuries in September at $13.3 B and $11.9 B, respectively.
16:03 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
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16:03 EDTWeek of 11/29 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:03 EDTWeek of 11/29 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTFOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory
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13:50 EDTFed's Kocherlakota reiterated he doesn't see inflation hitting 2% until 2018
Fed's Kocherlakota reiterated he doesn't see inflation hitting 2% until 2018, largely repeating prior comments in today's speech titled "Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy." He believes the FOMC should be clear that its inflation objective is "symmetric." And secondly he believes the FOMC "should consider articulating a benchmark two-year time horizon for returning inflation to the 2% goal. Remember, Kocherlakota dissented at the October 29 meeting because of the inflation outlook as he thought the policy statement was consistent with other interpretations of price stability, not just the two-year time horizon.
13:45 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads narrowed a bit today
U.S. dollar swap spreads narrowed a bit today, though the movement has been pretty glacial like the rest of the markets so far. Heavy corporate issuance continues this week and may be contributing to near-term widening, though that may relent by the end of the week, according to sources. The 2-year swap spread narrowed fractionally to +21.5 bp (mid) from earlier wides near +21.8 bp, compared to +22 bp levels earlier in the week. This was a little more obvious on the 5-year spread, which hit 2-month narrows of +12.25 bp (mid) before nudging back out to +12.75 bp compared to October 16 wides of +21.5 bp. Likewise, the 10-year swap spread probed 2-month narrows of +11.25 bp (mid) vs +12.25 bp session wides, also well in from +16.75 bp in mid-October. Against this trend there has been some talk of "fast money" wideners as well, but time will tell.
12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been range bound
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12:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's another heavy issuance day
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
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11:41 EDTJPMorgan life science tools analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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11:40 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction was ok
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: block and vol trade on 5-year futures
Treasury Option Action: block and vol trade on 5-year futures was cited, with the block sale of 7.3k in December 119-18.25 5-year futures and the sale of 1.5k in February 118 put/119.5 call strangles (volatility) as well. Yet December 5s are 2.2-ticks firmer near 119-172 compared to their 119-20 to 119-155 range.
10:35 EDTU.S. equities have snapped to life
U.S. equities have snapped to life following the bounce in NAHB, while also piggy-backing solid gains in Europe after the firm German ZEW reading ahead of the open. Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.15% higher and the German DAX extended gains to 1.6% on the day. The major U.S. indices are 0.4-0.5% firmer after a flat start. Among the top gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +2.0%, Intel +1.4% and Boeing +1.0%, while Home Depot is at the bottom of the heap -0.9%.
10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly quiet trade
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
Fed Policy Outlook: better than expected PPI and NAHB data should not alter views on the rate trajectory. While the improvement is good news for policymakers (it's certainly better than stagnation or erosion) neither report is indicative of sufficient strength to get the FOMC excited. In the case of PPI, the strength of the numbers was in service prices and with the ongoing slide in energy and other commodities, a meaningful pick-up in prices isn't likely. The tepid recovery in housing has also been a thorn in the Fed's side, and while homebuilder sentiment improved to the high end of its recent range, it's still far below pre-financial crisis highs that were in the 70s. Market consensus for a rate hike continues to shift from mid- to late 2015. Given the deterioration in Asian growth, the stagnation in Europe, weakness in prices, and very limited gains in wages, not to mention the dovish make-up of the 2015 FOMC, a hike in the first half of 2015 seems unlikely.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain on neutral footing
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder index rose 4 points to 58 in November
U.S. NAHB homebuilder index rose 4 points to 58 in November, nearly fully unwinding the 5 point drop to 54 in October. Note the 59 from September was the highest since November 2005 when the index hit 61, and compares to a cyclical high of 72 from June 2005, and an all time peak of 78 from December 1998. The low reading was 8 from January 2009. The present single family sales index rebounded 5 points to 62 after falling 6 points previously to 57, while the future sales index edged up 2 points to 66 from 64. The index of prospective buyer traffic increased 4 points to 45 from 41.
10:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
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10:08 EDTE-Commerce Retail Sales E- Q/Q Change SAAR data reported
E-Commerce Retail Sales E- Q/Q Change SAAR up 4.0% for the quarter
10:08 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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09:45 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the housing market index (HMI) is seen rising 2-points to 56 in November from 54. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:42 EDTQuiet open suggests another lackluster session
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: the market remains range-bound
Treasury Action: the market remains range-bound with the 10-year yield tightly confined to the 2.28% to 2.38% zone for now. It's not clear what will break the market out, probably one of the unforecastable events that crop up on occasion. A less than hawkish slant to the FOMC Minutes tomorrow my help knock yields to the lower end of the range. Curve flattening trades, softer inflation, and prospects for further BoJ and ECB stimulus also point to lower yields. But, the omnipresent thought that the Fed will start normalizing rates next year should help put a floor under rates. Sources also say current market positioning doesn't argue for much of a decline in yields -- the JPMorgan "all client" survey showed a rise in net longs and a fall in net shorts, with the latter at the lowest level since April.
09:05 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. October PPI rise with a 0.4% core price pop
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1305
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1305 after the U.S. PPI data, rallying modestly from 1.1290. The pairing based at 1.1260 in London, and made its way higher into the North American open as oil prices gave back overnight gains. WTI is trading at $75.30, after peaking at $76.44 earlier. Equity futures meanwhile, are struggling to hold on to modest gains, also supportive of USD-CAD currently. Support remains at 1.1260, while Monday's 1.1328 high steps in as interim resistance.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are largely unchanged
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09:00 EDTU.S. TIC preview:
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
FX Action: The dollar moved higher across the board following the hotter PPI outcome, though reaction was limited overall. EUR-USD dipped to 1.2505 from 1.2525, as USD-JPY touched 116.66, up from 116.50. Equity futures managed to move modestly higher, while yields edged up perhaps a basis point.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields bounced from lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. PPI rose 0.2% in October with the core rate climbing 0.4%
U.S. PPI rose 0.2% in October with the core rate climbing 0.4%, versus September's data showing a 0.1% dip in the headline and an unchanged reading on the core. The annual rate slowed to a 1.5% y/y pace last month, versus 1.6% y/y, while the core rate was 1.8% y/y versus 1.6% y/y. Goods prices fell 0.4%, a 4th consecutive monthly decline, with energy prices dropping 3.0% and food prices rising 1.0%. Service sector prices edged up 0.5%. The data are hotter than expected but are having minimal impact on the markets currently.
08:32 EDTFutures show little reaction to producer prices report
Stock futures remain quiet following the release of the producer prices report for October. Prices rose 0.2% during the month versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%, while the core reading, which excludes food and energy was up 0.4% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:25 EDTMinneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota
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08:15 EDTU.S. PPI preview:
U.S. PPI preview: overall-PPI is expected to fall 0.3% in October with a 0.1% core index figure. Forecast risk is downward, as analysts may see continued weakness in some commodity prices. Indeed, analysts expect energy prices to be a drag on the month as WTI prices declined 10%. preview for more.
08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded to $76.44/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded to $76.44/bbl highs overnight, before slipping back to current $75.55 levels. Increased speculation that OPEC will cut production when it meets next week in Vienna has been supportive of prices most recently, though traders now say a failure by the cartel to curb production could lead to another quick sell-off, with the $70/bbl level targeted.
08:02 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index edged up 0.2%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index edged up 0.2% in the week ended November 15 after a 1.5% rebound in the week before. The y/y pace accelerated slightly to a 2.2% y/y clip from 2.1% y/y. The drop in gas prices was noted as a source of support for sales, which should make for a good holiday shopping season.
07:59 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:58 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
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07:56 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:41 EDTSusquehanna to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
Asia Infrastructure & Transportation Corp Day is being held in Hong Kong on November 18-19.
07:26 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTFutures suggest another lackluster session
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar was mixed
FX Update: The dollar was mixed, holding strong versus the yen while trading lower against the euro following strong data out of the Eurozone. USD-JPY logged a new seven-year peak at 117.06 on EBS, which by our reckoning surpassed yesterday's high by one pip, after Japanese PM Abe announced a postponement in a scheduled sales tax hike while calling for a snap election. The pair subsequently saw some whippy price which left an intraday low at 116.40. EUR-USD, meanwhile rallied from sub-1.25 levels to an intraday high at 1.2540, which reverses more than three quarters of yesterday's decline. The euro was bid following a much stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence, which came in at 11.5 in the November from -3.6 in the previous month. AUD-USD logged a two-day low of 0.8682. The RBA minutes to the November meeting repeated that a period of rate stability is likely the most prudent course, and that the currency remains overvalued despite recent depreciation, remaining above "most estimates of its fundamental values." EUR-CHF continued to trade heavily, holding about 10-15 ticks above the SNB's 1.2000 franc cap.
06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 18
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05:49 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar consolidated
FX Update: The dollar consolidated during the pre-European session in Asia. EUR-USD settled around the 1.2470 mark after drifting up from around 1.2450. There was little appetite for follow-through euro selling following yesterday's remarks by ECB's Draghi, who said the monetary policy will take time to reach the real economy and suggested that the central bank can do more once policy makers have implemented structural reforms. USD-JPY carved out a 116.42-116.78 range in Tokyo, holding below the 117.05 seven-year peak see on Monday. Japanese policymakers continued to chew on trade-offs between stimulus, deficit spending and tax hike delays. Finance Minister Aso warned that raising the sales tax is unavoidable, regardless of timing as it is important to maintain market credibility with Japan's finances, and that ultra-loose monetary policy was about supporting fiscal reform. AUD-USD settled in the low 0.87s. The RBA minutes to the November meeting repeated that a period of rate stability is likely the most prudent course, and that the currency remains overvalued despite recent depreciation, remaining above "most estimates of its fundamental values." Elsewhere, EUR-CHF continued to trade heavily, holding about 15 ticks above the SNB's 1.2000 franc cap.
02:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar consolidated
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November 17, 2014
21:25 EDTChina's foreign direct investment rose 1.3% y/y in October
China's foreign direct investment rose 1.3% y/y in October, slowing somewhat from the 1.9% y/y rebound in September. September's gain followed large declines in July (-17.0% y/y) and August (-14.0% y/y). The year-to-date pace contracted 1.2% y/y, and was a 4th consecutive year-to-date decline. Meanwhile, outbound non-financial investment was up 17.8% y/y for the year-to-date, versus the 21.6% y/y pace for the Jan-Sep period. The slowdown in investment may be a reflection of investor fears over the slowing economy.
20:35 EDTJapan leaders continue to chew on trade-offs
Japan leaders continue to chew on trade-offs between stimulus, deficit spending and tax hike delays, with Economic Minister Amari saying it is up to PM Abe and Finance Minister Aso to decide what to do about the primary budget deficit target. The PM has apparently not given any specific instructions about the size of a potential stimulus package yet. Aso right on cue warned that raising the sales tax is unavoidable, regardless of timing as it is important to maintain market credibility with Japan's finances. Indeed, ultra-loose monetary policy is based on Japan pursuing fiscal reform. Snap elections by December 14 would also make it hard to put together the state budget for next year by year-end. The fiscal dilemma continues, soon to be followed by political drama and more BoJ hand-wringing. Meanwhile, the Nikkei +1.95% has clawed by 2/3rds of yesterday losses on the back-to-back negative GDP print, while USD-JPY has stabilized near 116.60.
15:29 EDTNomura retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTEmerging Asia Central Banks to Take it Easy:
Emerging Asia Central Banks to Take it Easy: Emerging Asia's central banks have shifted to easier stances or held steady amid slower growth and rising uncertainty in the region. Japan's hefty Q3 GDP miss is a fresh addition to downside risks for Asia's economies, adding to the downdraft from a new normal of slower growth in China. Against this backdrop, the outlook is for either additional accommodation or steady policy through the first half of next year.
13:20 EDTFOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory
FOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory, though analysts doubt the report will satisfy. The mixed tone evident between recent FOMC policy statements, the Minutes, and Fedspeak don't suggest a lot of consistency. And the vagaries of the data, as well as global events, are keeping policymakers generally preferring the sidelines. There is ongoing market debate over the tone of the Minutes, and analysts lean on the side of a more dovish take versus the slightly more hawkish spin from the October 29 policy statement. Analysts suspect most FOMC participants will suggest more frustration, if not concern over the soft price trends, albeit while acknowledging the improvement in the job market. This would be akin to the Minutes to the September FOMC, which also leaned to the dovish side by noting concerns over weakness in Europe and the impact of the stronger dollar. Of course the leadership on the FOMC, Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley remains dovish. And there was a dovish dissent at the October meeting, all of which suggests a more bond-friendly tone.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has held relatively steady
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
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11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put spread demand
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10:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1328
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back to highs
Treasury Action: yields snapped back to highs with those of Bunds following ECB Draghi's remarks that time is need to assess stimulus, though he also continued to hold open the prospect of further action if needed. The moves coincided with a slump in the euro to session lows near 1.2450. The T-note yield cleared 2.33% as the Bund yield topped 0.80% again and coincided with some earlier demand for volatility and a small rebound in stocks from lows with USD-JPY. Yet the 2.38-2.41% zone remains an impediment for an upside break this month. The 2s-10s spread has steepened back to +182 bp from +179 bp earlier.
10:00 EDTThe 0.1% October U.S. industrial production drop
The 0.1% October U.S. industrial production drop undershot estimates, following modest revisions, with weakness due to unexpected drops of 0.9% for mining and 0.7% for utilities, alongside the expected 0.2% manufacturing rise despite a big vehicle assembly rate drop to an 11.1 M rate. The October drop was capped by a 0.6% business equipment rise. Industrial production is poised for an estimated 4% utility-boosted growth rate in Q4, thanks to an expected November lift from cold weather, after rates of 3.3% (was 3.2%) in Q3 and 5.7% (was 5.5%) in Q2. Analysts have a fairly stable 2014 aggregate output climb despite big gyrations in utility and vehicle output. More generally, analysts've seen 1%-9% quarterly rates since the start of the expansion. Analysts've seen a factory outperformance of GDP through this expansion, and particularly in recent quarters. Analysts expect industrial production growth of 4.0% in 2014 after slower growth of 2.9% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2012. Analysts expect a restrained 2.2% growth rate for GDP in 2014 that nearly matches prior rates of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.
09:47 EDTMarket tone sluggish at open, averages dip in early trade
Stock futures traded below fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. The weakness was attributed to data out of Japan which suggested the country has slipped into a recession. Manufacturing data in the NY region and industrial production across the U.S. during October both came in weaker than expected, giving little help to a market that is looking for a catalyst to help it move up from the Dow and S&P's near-record levels. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 1 point and the S&P is down 1 point.
09:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased a touch against the yen
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields stalled out
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, with capacity at 78.9%
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09:19 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 10:00
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09:16 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some demand for volatility
Treasury Option Action: some demand for volatility to start the week came in the form of a purchase of 5k in December 126/127 strangles on 10-year futures, according to sources. December 10s are flat near 126-22 compared to a 127-00 to 126-195 range on Globex.
09:10 EDTU.S. industrial production preview:
U.S. industrial production preview: industrial production is expected to increase 0.5% in September, after falling 0.1% in July. Forecast risk is upward, as firm employment data could lift the headline. Capacity utilization should tick up to 79.0% from 78.8% in August, which is above the all-time low of 67.3% in June '09 but below the last cyclical peak of 81.3% in December of '07. preview.
09:05 EDTMore Fedspeak is due from Chicago Fed dove Evans
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09:00 EDTFed's Powell said the "time to raise rates is coming, but it's not here yet,"
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are underwater
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained stuck near lows
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08:50 EDTEmpire State sentiment bounced as expected
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08:50 EDTFX Action: Little FX reaction to the Empire State outcome
FX Action: Little FX reaction to the Empire State outcome, which bounced nearly in-line with market expectations. EUR-USD continues to trade either side of 1.2500 in narrow ranges, while USD-JPY remains over 116.00, after falling to 115.46 lows after the negative Japan GDP print overnight. Equity futures remain underwater into the Wall Street open, while yields remain near session lows.
08:45 EDTBofA/Merrill LatAm oil and gas analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index rose 4 points to 10.2 in November
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08:35 EDTU.S. data has little effect on futures
Stock futures are off their lows but remain in negative territory following the release of the Empire Manufacturing report. The report had a reading of 10.16 versus expectations of 12.0. It had little effect on the market as the data out of Japan which showed that the country entered a recession continues to weigh on markets here and around the world.
08:33 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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08:15 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude prices were capped
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are higher
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07:39 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion on financial stability
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up some in London trade, taking EUR-USD back under 1.2500, and USD-JPY up over 116.30, from post-Japan GDP lows of 115.46. The shock negative GDP print initially saw USD-JPY rally to trend highs over 117.00, though as Tokyo stocks sank, the yen recovered some ground. The U.S. calendar reveals the November Empire State index at 8:30 EST, and October industrial production, at 9:15 EST.
07:30 EDTFX Update: The new week opened with a bout of volatility
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07:28 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Chicago speaks at conference
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07:26 EDTJapan recession provides headwind for U.S.
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open as the week’s trading gets set to begin. The early weakness is being blamed on data out of Japan which showed that its economy entered a recession. The Japanese market had its biggest one day loss since July, and the news has had a ripple effect around the world. Today U.S. investors will be watching the Empire Manufacturing report and Industrial production and capacity utilization reports for clues about our own economy's outlook. .
07:25 EDTFX Update: The new week opened with a bout of volatility
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07:20 EDTWeek Ahead - A House Divided:
Week Ahead - A House Divided: Next big item on the U.S. docket is the FOMC Minutes with many doves seeking a more patient approach to rate hikes, in contrast to the hawks who want to see a faster pace of normalization. At the weekend G20 meeting Russia will provide a side-show, as actions continue to speak louder than words on the Ukraine. Japan's GDP is expected to rebound, while RBA minutes are out after and the ECB will keep close tabs on confidence indicators due. Also BoE MPC minutes should reflect the dovish shift already evident, while the SNB could be provoked into action if the Swissie firms through 1.20 euros.
07:13 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference is being held in Hong Kong on November 17-18.
07:10 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago to hold a conference
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06:52 EDTEuro zone trade surplus surged in September, Reuters says
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06:47 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 17
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06:35 EDTStocks decline after Japan GDP miss, Reuters says
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05:55 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The JPY rebounded from fresh trend lows
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November 15, 2014
18:23 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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18:23 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
October Leading Indicators will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
18:23 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:23 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
October Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.028M
18:23 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
October Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
18:23 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
October PPI-FD will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [0.1]% for the month
18:23 EDTWeek of 11/26 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
18:23 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
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18:23 EDTWeek of 11/17 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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November 14, 2014
18:04 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 20:30
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18:04 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 13:30
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18:04 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 07:45
18:04 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 13:30
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market finished on the front foot Friday after wrestling with a tight range for much the week. October retail sales beat very low expectations, which accounted for the brief spike in yields to session highs, but it was all downhill from there as stocks couldn't really hold their bid and the dollar retraced its bullish steps a bit. There was a follow-up gain on U. Michigan sentiment, but short-covering Treasuries quickly set in anyway ahead of the weekend. Fed dove Bullard continued to backtrack, arguing that low inflation doesn't justify holding rates near zero.
14:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:40 EDTFedspeak resumes next week with Chicago Fed dove Evans
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11:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are consolidating
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD moved under 1.1310,
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: the next big item on the docket is the FOMC Minutes
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11:05 EDTMore from dove Bullard: he is sticking with his forecast
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10:45 EDTThe 0.3% September U.S. business inventory rise beat estimates
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10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish put trade
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending November 7
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10:28 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:25 EDTThe November Michigan sentiment pop to an 89.4 new cycle-high
The November Michigan sentiment pop to an 89.4 new cycle-high extended the October climb to an 86.9 prior high from 84.6 in September, as the index has now spent two months above last year's 85.1 peak from July. Michigan sentiment likely faces a boost in the final November report, given an average upward revision of 0.8 points through 2014, though this is roughly half of the 1.8 average boost in 2013. Analysts expect a final November reading in the 90 area. The 2014 climb in Michigan sentiment has closed the gap to the growth path for consumption and payrolls. Confidence likely benefited from the usual post-election boost, alongside the general 2014 lift from rising equity and home prices. Confidence faces headwinds from the geopolitical backdrop, limited credit availability, and Obamacare. Analysts've seen an upward tilt in most confidence indicators into Q4, as most measures are now above mid-2013 levels. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 46.4 in November from 45.2 in the prior two months, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The RBC-IPSOS index fell, however to 51.7 in November from a 53.2 cycle-high in October. Analysts expect a consumer confidence rise to a 96.0 new cycle-high in November from a 94.5 current cycle-high in October.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields shrugged off the bounce in U. Michigan
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in September
U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in September from a revised 0.1% gain in August (was 0.2%). Business sales were unchanged after sliding 0.5% previously (revised from -0.4%). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.30 (August was revised up from 1.29). The only new information in the report is from retailer inventories, which increased 0.3%. The data will help fine-tune GDP forecasts but won't impact the markets.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher
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10:05 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment improved to 89.4 in the preliminary November read
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10:03 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
September Business Inventories up 0.3% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
10:03 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:55 EDTMarket opens relatively quietly, lower in early trade
Stock futures were quiet throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively quiet open for the broader market. The Dow hit a new all-time high yesterday, its 25th record for 2014. Oil prices continue to move lower and now stands at a four year low and questions remain about the effect of the low cost of oil. Certainly it will help the consumer, but the ripple effect in the economy continues to be debated. In early trading, the Dow is down 10 points, the Nasdaq is down 8 points and the S&P is relatively flat.
09:50 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
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09:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is moderate today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is moderate today. But the Treasury market is still suffering a bit from indigestion from a heavy calendar this week that looks to total about $35 B, along with the $66 B in the Treasury refunding. Headlining today is a $3 B 2-year global deal from FHLB. Newell Rubbermaid has a benchmark 5- and 10-year offering. And, First Tennessee Bank is selling $300 M in 5-year notes.
09:45 EDTU. Michigan sentiment preview:
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09:30 EDTFed's Bullard said low inflation does not justify zero rates
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09:20 EDTFed rate view is being pulled in two directions
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09:15 EDTThe 0.3% retail sales headline and ex-auto gains
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities marginally padded gains
U.S. equities marginally padded gains after the retail sales came in above low expectations and trade prices were dragged lower by tumbling energy prices. The Dow rose 15-points, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 3-points firmer in pre-open trade. Fresh trend lows in the yen helped prop up Japan's N-225 0.56%, supported by ongoing speculation over sales tax hike delay and stimulus, though Europe is trading mixed despite somewhat-firmer-but-still-limp GDP returns in Europe. The Euro Stoxx 50 has reclaimed shallow positive territory from out of the red earlier. Merger talks between Halliburton and Baker Hughes boosted their shares, while Geron leapt 37% after licensing a cancer drug to J&J. Hertz sank 1.5% after cutting its 2014 outlook and confirming cost cutting. Up next are U. Michigan and inventory data to round out the week.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD initially fell
FX Action: USD-CAD initially fell after the mix of data, where stronger Canadian manufacturing data took the spotlight. The pairing traded into 1.1360 from over 1.1380, though has since moved back over 1.1380. The modest rebound in oil prices has lent some support to the CAD, though most seem to think this morning's oil rally is nothing more than pre-weekend short covering related. USD-CAD support is seen into 1.1350, with resistance remaining at 1.1400.
08:50 EDTU.S. import prices dropped 1.3% in October, with export prices down 1.0%
U.S. import prices dropped 1.3% in October, with export prices down 1.0%. The 0.5% drop in September import prices was revised to -0.6% (and August was nudged to -0.8% from -0.6%). Also revised down was the 0.2% decline in export prices for September, which is now -0.4%. Petroleum import prices plunged 6.9% from -2.6% (revised from -2.8%). Petroleum prices have posted big declines since July. Excluding petroleum, import prices dipped 0.1% from -0.1% in September (revised from -0.2%). Industrial supplies import prices dropped 4.1%. Import prices with Canada fell 2.3%, but rose 0.1% with China. For exports, ag prices fell 2.1% after a 1.7% decline previously (revised from -0.9%). Food, beverage export prices were down 2.1% versus -1.5% (revised from -0.9%). Excluding ag, export prices slid 0.9% from -0.2% previously. Trade prices were weaker than expected, though that's in keeping with the slide in global prices in general.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, as did the ex-auto component
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, as did the ex-auto component. And there were no revisions to the September data including a 0.3% decline on the headline, and a 0.2% dip for the ex-auto figure. Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, retail sales rose 0.6% from 0.1% (revised from unchanged). Gas station sales dropped 1.5% last month. Electronic store sales fell 1.6%. Motor vehicles and parts salas rebounded 0.5% after a 1.2% September decline (revised from -0.8%). Non-store retailer sales increased 1.9%. Sporting goods climbed 1.2%. Furniture and building material sales posted small gains. Health and personal care spending rose 0.7%. Data are better than expected and should underpin strength in equities.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up to highs
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the sharp decline in import prices, and the better than forecast headline retail sales data. EUR-USD fell under 1.2410 from over 1.2440, as USD-JPY ramped up to fresh trend highs over 116.75 from near 116.50. Yields edged slightly higher, as equity futures bounced, turning marginal losses into slight gains.
08:38 EDTFutures move higher following economic data
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08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from St. Louis Fed dove Bullard
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08:15 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
U.S. retail sales preview: retail sales are expected to remain unchanged in October, with the ex-autos aggregate remaining unchanged as well (medians 0.2% for both). This compares to a recent high of 2.2% in March '10, and a low of -2.6% in September '09. Forecast risk is downward, however, as analysts expect a drag from falling gasoline prices and slower chain store sales. preview for more.
08:15 EDTU.S. trade prices preview:
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08:05 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect factory shipments to rise 1.0% m/m in September (median same at +1.0%) after the 3.3% plunge in August. Supportive of our projection, export values rose 1.1% in September after a 2.5% drop in August. An as-expected bounce in manufacturing would further underpin the view that the pull-back in manufacturing and exports during August was temporary. The August export decline was in large part due to a shift in the annual retooling schedule, which was likely also a culprit behind the weakness in August manufacturing.
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude touched trend lows
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07:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar was mixed
FX Update: The dollar was mixed, posting fresh trend highs against the underperforming yen and sterling, while seeing some losses against the euro, which found an underpinning on forecast-beating Eurozone GDP data. Flash Q3 GDP Eurozone came in stronger than expected at 0.2% q/q, with Q2 revised up to 0.1% from 0.0%, helping EUR-USD lift to the mid-to-upper 1.24s. USD-JPY punched out a fresh six-year peak at 116.40 as the dollar's yield advantage pushed toward recent highs at 190 bp at the 10-year level between in the U.S. T-note and JGB. Sterling dived to fresh lows, with Cable making a new 13-month low at 1.5654 and EUR-GBP reaching new three-week highs above 0.7950. The move extended the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which trimmed growth and inflation forecasts. The market is also looking next week's U.K. October CPI release, which comes with downside risk. The AUD managed to recover above 0.8700 after dipping on news that Glencore, the world's biggest thermal coal miner, is planning to close a number of mines in Australia in December due to global oversupply.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed in quiet trading
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:19 EDTFDA Medical Devices Advisory Committee's Ophthalmic Devices Panel holds meeting
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07:15 EDTCitigroup to hold a symposium
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07:06 EDTFutures quiet ahead of several economic reports
Stock futures are trading right around fair value as the market gets set to put the finishing touches on one of the more quiet trading weeks of the year. In contrast to the rest of the week, which was devoid of any major economic reports, investors today will receive a host of data, including reports on import prices, retail sales, consumer confidence business inventories, and natural gas inventories.
06:48 EDTEuro zone Q3 growth beats expectations, Reuters says
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06:25 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 14
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05:54 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar posted gains across the board
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November 13, 2014
20:25 EDTJapan Econ Minister Amari: if sales tax hike is delayed
Japan Econ Minister Amari: if sales tax hike is delayed the government may need to consider if further economic stimulus is required. Indeed, hiking the sales tax or delaying the hike both carry risks that need to be reduced. If PM Abe delays the tax hike, he will do his utmost to achieve primary budget reduction targets and it is not possible to delay it indefinitely as the trust in Japanese debt must not be damaged. Of course, that is the catch-22 in a nutshell. Japan Finance Minister Aso chimed in that though the economy is continuing to moderate and fiscal reform efforts must continue. While private consumption is stalling, employment, incomes and investment is improving. But it would be hard to halve the primary budget deficit as planned for FY2015/2016 is the sales tax is delay. With the rebound in USD-JPY over 116.00 to cycle highs of 116.19 the FX market appears to be assuming that where there's smoke there must be fire on the tax cut delay, though the N-225 is trading lower.
16:00 EDTMinneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota: inflation won't reach 2%
Minneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota: inflation won't reach 2% until 2018 and if the outlook does rise, he could support a rate hike in 2015. Otherwise, if the outlook is unchanged, a 2015 rate hike would be inappropriate. A falling jobless rate should only prompt rate hikes if it generated unwanted inflation. Kocherlakota was expected to discuss the oil boom in the Bakken, but seems to be still justifying his late-October dissent.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:11 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility elevated
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14:15 EDTU.S. Treasury reported a $121.7 B budget deficit for October
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields settled lower
Treasury Action: yields settled lower after the brief selling bout following the damp 30-year auction results, in line with deteriorating stocks ahead of the close. The widening of the budget gap came as no surprise, though inside our survey median. The T-note yield reversed from 2.37% earlier, stopping shy of 2.384% Asian highs before drifting back below 2.35% to session lows.
14:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 115.81 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY managed 115.81 highs in morning trade, before easing back to 115.54. Since the London close, the pairing touched a 115.82 peak, and has subsequently dropped off to 115.56 lows. Offers at 115.90-116.00 are said to be on the heavy side, and price action would seem to confirm that today. The pullback has also been helped by Wall Street turning negative, after it was poised for decent gains earlier. Support is expected into 115.50-30 now.
13:50 EDTU.S. Treasury budget preview:
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13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: some vol selling on bonds
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13:27 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility increases as shares trend lower
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $16 B bond sale was ugly and was the worst of the 3 auctions
Treasury's $16 B bond sale was ugly and was the worst of the 3 auctions. The 30-year tailed to 3.092% versus the 3.085% at the bid deadline. There were only $36.7 B in bids for a 2.29 cover, below both the 2.40 for the $13 B reopening and the 2.42 average. In fact it's the lowest since the May 2014 sale. Indirect bidders took 43.8% versus 46.2% in October and the 44.7% average. Direct bidders took 13.8%, below the prior 21.5%, while primary dealers were awarded 42.5% compared to October's 32.2%. The only good thing to say about the auction is that it finishes the November refunding.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields popped back up
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13:05 EDTFed Chairwoman Yellen nothing to say
Fed Chairwoman Yellen nothing to say vis-a-vis monetary policy or the economic outlook in welcome remarks before a Global Research Forum in NY sponsored by the ECB, Fed and NY Fed. Nothing to see here, move right along to the 30-year auction results.
12:50 EDTPhilly Fed hawk Plosser is waxing philosophical
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12:50 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview:
Treasury 30-year auction preview: Treasury's 30-year auction may not go much better than the first two legs, especially given the lack of an outright concession today. However, there has been an increase in investment fund demand, and that may help carry the day today. The wi trades at 3.085%, though 1 bp cheaper than last month's $13 B reopening, a stop here would be the second richest in a year. That may limit the aggressiveness of domestic buyers. However, with spreads to core global sovereigns near historic wides, and a bias for further easing from the ECB and BoJ, foreign demand could be decent. The soft inflation trends are also supportive. The October reopening (for $13 B) was awarded at 3.074% and garnered a 2.40 cover (2.42 average) and a 46.2% indirect bid (44.7% average). Direct bidders took 21.5% and primary dealers were awarded 32.2%. The August refunding issue stopped at 2.60% and saw a 2.60 cover and a 45.9% indirect.
12:35 EDTTreasury Action: the next big item on the docket is the FOMC Minutes
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12:10 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude tested $75.0
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12:05 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude tested $75.0
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11:55 EDTU.S. equities rolled back over again
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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11:04 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 7
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on intra day highs
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10:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude has posted fresh trend lows, trading under November 4 base of $75.84, and touching $75.66 lows so far. Traders now look for a push toward the key $75/bbl region.
10:06 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
September JOLTS Job Openings at 4.735M vs. consensus of 4.800M
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has edged up
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's another loaded calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: it's another loaded calendar, but neither that nor the refunding supply are taking away from the more bullish bent in Treasuries today. Of note, KFW has a $5 B 10-year to lead today's offerings; it's KFW's second largest sale (after the $6 B in May). Roche Holdings has a $1 B 10-year TAP and a new 30-year. Alibaba has announced a multi-tranche deal. Citigroup has a benchmark 12-year subordinated debt sale. And Macys joined the list with a $550 M 20-year.
09:20 EDTFedspeak from Fed Chair Yellen
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are firmer
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities shed their overnight rebound
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08:50 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims bounce to 290k
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08:48 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks at symposium
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks at Stanford's State of the West Symposium being held in Stanford, California on November 13 at 2:45 pm.
08:47 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at conference
Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellen gives the welcome remarks before the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance being held in Washington, D.C. on November 13 at 12:45 pm.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated lower
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08:42 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic policy
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Plosser on panel discussing the new normal at the George Washington University & Princeton University--Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies' Symposium, "The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy: Traditional & New Tools" on November 13 at 12:30 pm.
08:41 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rebounded 12k to 290k in the November 8 week
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08:39 EDTConsumer Financial Protection Bureau to hold a hearing
Hearing on prepaid accounts features remarks from Director Cordray of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as well as testimony from consumer groups, industry representatives, and members of the public is being held in Wilmington, Delaware on November 13 at 11 am. Webcast Link
08:36 EDTFutures remain higher following jobless claims data
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08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched intra day highs
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08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims are expected to hold at 278k (median 280k) in the week-ended November 8. Continuing claims are expected to fall 36k to 2,312k for the week-ended November 1. Forecast risk is upward, as claims may rebound slighlty after hitting a new recent low. Any big swings between Veteran's Day and the MLK holiday are typically attributable to difficulties with seasonal adjustments. preview for more.
08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:35 EDTStanford Institute for Economic Policy Institute to hold a symposium
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07:34 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to hold a conference
Risk Management of Third-Party Payment Processors Conference is being held in Atlanta, Georgia on November 13.
07:31 EDTStifel to hold a conference
Midwest 1:1 Conference is being held in Chicago on November 13.
07:28 EDTEuropean Central Bank, Fed Reserve & Fed Reserve Bank of NY hold forum
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07:25 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
Energy Infrastructure Conference is being held in Toronto on November 13.
07:15 EDTEdison Electric Institute to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a conference
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07:09 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:06 EDTFutures higher as oil prices continues to slide
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
FX Update: The dollar oscillated against the euro and yen, posted gains against the still-underperforming pound and lost ground to the Aussie dollar. AUD-USD rebounded quite strongly during the European AM session after taking a dive in Sydney hours after RBA assistant governor Kent said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention." AUD-USD left low at 0.8672 before a stop-fuelled scramble propelled the pair to eight-day highs above 0.8760. EUR-USD drifted higher to the mid-to-upper 1.24s, though continued to hold well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. The intraday bid reflected a general ebb in the dollar, with USD-JPY having dipped to the 115.50 area. Cable was an exception, edging out a fresh 13-month low at 1.5753, extending the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. BoE's Broadbent said today that disinflationary trends will persist for a while, while the Oct BRC house price balance dropped to 20% from 30%.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
FX Update: The dollar oscillated against the euro and yen, posted gains against the still-underperforming pound and lost ground to the Aussie dollar. AUD-USD rebounded quite strongly during the European AM session after taking a dive during in Sydney hours after RBA assistant governor Kent said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention." AUD-USD left low at 0.8672 before a stop-fuelled scramble propelled the pair to eight-day highs above 0.8760. EUR-USD drifted higher to the mid-to-upper 1.24s, though continued to hold well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. The intraday bid reflected a general ebb in the dollar, with USD-JPY having dipped to the 115.50 area. Cable edged out a fresh 13-month low at 1.5753, extending the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. BoE's Broadbent said that disinflationary trends will persist for a while, while the Oct BRC house price balance dropped to 20% from 30%.
06:49 EDTOfficial indicates Germany avoided recession, Reuters says
The German economy averted a recession last quarter, as private consumption and foreign trade grew, a German official indicated, according to Reuters. Reference Link
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 13
Globex S&P futures are recently up 6.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.14%, DAX up 0.96%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $76.73, natural gas down 0.96%, gold at $1161 an ounce, copper up 0.66%.
05:51 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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05:35 EDTFed's Dudley said expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike are "reasonable"
Fed's Dudley said expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike are "reasonable" in a speech made in Abu Dhabi, though the timing of the first tightening "really depends on how the economy evolves and how analysts progress towards our objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability." He added that hiking interest rates too early would pose "considerably greater" risks for the Fed than moving too late.
02:25 EDTFX Update: The AUD took a dive on an RBA intervention threat
FX Update: The AUD took a dive on an RBA intervention threat from assistant governor Kent, who said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention" while repeating the RBA's view that the currency remains fundamentally overvalued relative to falling resource prices. AUD-USD dove from the 0.8734 area to session lows of 0.8672, subsequently recovering to the 0.8700-10 area. Most of the other main currencies posted narrow ranges. EUR-USD drifted in a narrow range around 1.2440-50, holding well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. USD-JPY consolidated in the mid-to-upper 115s, keeping Monday's 116.10 six-year high in range. There was another flood of Japanese policymaker speak, which generally sent the message the QQE isn't risking hyper-inflation down the track, and that the recovery is on track, which helped fuel another solid rally in the Nikkei. GBP was unaffected by BoE-speak from Carney, who said the economy is normalizing, and Broadbent, who said disinflationary trends will persist for a while, especially if commodity prices remain low.
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