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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 30, 2014
09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago ISM manufacturing index fell 3.8 points to 60.5 in September
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: T-note eased sub-2.50%
Treasury Action: T-note eased sub-2.50% after the drop back in the Chicago ISM reading, though subscribers apparently leaked the data in advance of its publication. Now markets wait to see if the consumer confidence print corroborates the weaker run of data of late.
09:52 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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09:50 EDTU.S. consumer confidence preview:
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09:45 EDTChicago ISM index preview:
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09:38 EDTAverages begin in slightly positive territory, quickly turn mixed
Stock futures were higher throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a mildly higher open for the broader market. The Case/Shiller 20-city home price index showed prices were down 0.5% in July from the prior month. Investors will next be watching the Chicago PMI report and consumer confidence reading for September for additional clues on the strength of the economy. Ahead of those reports, the Dow is up 9 points, the Nasdaq is up 3 points and the S&P is essentially flat.
09:15 EDTU.S. Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.6% to 173.3 for the July 20-City
U.S. Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.6% to 173.3 for the July 20-City index, from 172.3 in June. This is a fifth straight monthly gain. However, sales continue to slow on an annual basis, with the pace dipping to 6.8% y/y versus an 8.1% y/y pace previously (it was better than 13% y/y in January). The 10-City composite index also rose 0.6% to 188.3 in July from June's 187.2. That's up 6.8% y/y versus 8.1% y/y. For the month, 19 of the 20 cities surveyed posted gains, with only San Francisco home prices declining. On an annual basis, all 20-cities were higher, led by Las Vegas (12.8%) and Miami (11.0%).
09:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 7 cents
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09:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: heavy selling was reported
Euro$ interest rate futures: heavy selling was reported right at the open on the June 2016 contract, with 100k sold from 98.635 down to 98.605 amid very high volume in the red contracts, especially the June 2016. Front-months are flat, but the deferreds have sagged by as much as 3-ticks out the curve as stocks are poised to open higher.
08:45 EDTS&P Case-Shiller home price index preview:
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08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD spiked up to 1.1204
FX Action: USD-CAD spiked up to 1.1204 from 1.1160 after the weak Canadian GDP outcome, touching levels last seen on March 25. Resistance comes in at 1.1210, which represents the high on March 25. Barrier options were reportedly extinguished at the figure, though profit taking has been a feature over 1.1200 so far.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are mostly higher in pre-open action
U.S. equities are mostly higher in pre-open action in the wake of gains in Europe as weak Eurozone inflation and German jobs put the ECB back in the spotlight Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose over 1% on rekindled ECB QE hopes. News that eBay plans to spin off PayPal also stirred up investors, who bid up eBay some 12%. Move Inc. also surged 37% after a News Corp bid. This came after another weak run in Asia as civil unrest in Hong Kong led the Hang Seng down another -1.28%, while the Shanghai Comp rose 0.26% and Japan's N-225 sank 0.84%. The Dow is 52-points firmer, S&P gained 7-points and NASDAQ is up 22-points ahead of the opening bell. Up next are S&P Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago ISM and consumer confidence for the next sign posts on the economy.
08:20 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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08:20 EDTFedspeak is due from moderate governor Powell
Fedspeak is due from moderate governor Powell who will be taking part in a panel discussion on "Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound" from 10:45 ET.
08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:05 EDTU.S. ICSC chain store sales index dipped 0.2%
U.S. ICSC chain store sales index dipped 0.2% in the week ended September 27, after rebounding a slim 0.1% previously as sales have charted a bumpy course from week to week. Despite the decline, the ICSC reported sales were on the brisk side at discount, dollar, wholesale, electronic, and apparel stores. However, moderate temperatures didn't contribute to a pick-up in seasonal demands. The annual pace of sales slowed a tad to 3.6% y/y after posting a 4.1% y/y clip the week before. September sales are forecast at a 4% y/y to 5% y/y clip.
08:05 EDTCanada GDP Preview
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08:05 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Index Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI to fall 0.5% in August after the 0.3% decline in July. Forecast risk is mixed as energy prices fell in August but the CAD lost value versus the U.S. dollar. The currency is a key source of upside risk for the August IPPI and RMPI. The IPPI is expected to slow to a 1.9% y/y rate in August from +2.9% in July and +3.1% in June, further unwinding from the 3.9% y/y rate in April. The RMPI is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in August as oil prices moved lower.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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07:52 EDTBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:51 EDTFDA Food Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses risk ranking and risk prioritization approaches for specific regulatory purposes in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on September 30 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:50 EDTFBR Capital to hold a conference
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07:49 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:37 EDTBoston Biotech Conference to hold a conference
Cancer Advance Harvard Med Conference to be held in Boston on September 30-October 1.
07:36 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a conference
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07:34 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:31 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:30 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTFutures suggest early market bounce
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 30
Globex S&P futures are recently up 6.90 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.84%, DAX up 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $94.79, natural gas up 0.02%, gold at $1213 an ounce, and copper down 0.25%.
05:54 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:50 EDTFX Action: Broad dollar buying picked up again
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-softer
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September 29, 2014
20:15 EDTJapan's unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in August
Japan's unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in August from 3.8% in July. The Job Offers ratio sat at 1.10 in August for the third month. The decline in August takes the unemployment rate closer to the multi year low seen in May, and leaves the measure at the bottom of the 3.5% to 5.5% range seen since 2009. Also released, overall household real PCE fell 4.7% in August (y/y) on a "real" or price adjusted basis after the 5.9% decrease in July. Consumption continues to retreat in the wake of the April consumption tax hike after posting solid growth through March as consumers made purchases in advance of the tax hike.
15:20 EDTCanada GDP Preview
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15:20 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Index Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI, due Tuesday, to fall 0.5% in August after the 0.3% decline in July. Forecast risk is mixed: Energy prices fell in August but the CAD lost value versus the U.S. dollar. The currency is a key source of upside risk for the August IPPI and RMPI. The IPPI is expected to slow to a 1.9% y/y rate in August from +2.9% in July and +3.1% in June, further unwinding from the 3.9% y/y rate in April. The RMPI is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in August as oil prices moved lower.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:50 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher sees improvement in labor market indicators
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13:30 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped to a high over 17.0
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12:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain at or near their highs
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12:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: scrambling at the short-end
Euro$ interest rate options: scrambling at the short-end continues amid multiple deals, including the bearish sale of 20k in Short December 90/92 call spreads vs purchase of 20k 87 puts. There was also a bearish purchase of 5k in Blue December 68 puts, bullish purchase of 11k in Green November 80/81 call spreads (with 4.4k in Blue November 73/77 call spreads), and a bearish purchase of 6k in Blue October 66/68 put spreads. The December 2014 contract is back to flat at 99.755, while the deferreds range fom -0.5 ticks to +4 ticks, below earlier highs as stocks made a move back up from lows.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has bounced
FX Action: USD-CAD has bounced off the 1.1140 level on two occasions in North American dealings, though gains over 1.11465 have so far been thwarted. The fairly sharp rebound on Wall Street has put a ceiling on the pairing it appears, as have firmer oil and gold moves. The tresistance level comes in at 1.1200-10, with support seen at 1.1125.
11:25 EDTNY Fed bought $2.135 B in notes
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11:10 EDTA Likely 2-Handle for U.S. Payrolls, Despite August Restraint:
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday. That's a $10 B reduction and reverses the $10 B increase to $40 B for last week's sale. Supply is light this week with just bills on tap, including today's $48 B 3- and 6-month offering.
11:00 EDTU.S. equities bounced from lows
U.S. equities bounced from lows as some short-covering kicks in, though it remains unclear if this is a "moribund feline" bounce or a real rebound, supported by migration of USD-JPY back up from 109.11 lows to 109.40. There was some talk earlier of Morgan Stanley heavily selling equity futures that added to the bearish mix, though whether on a technical break or just quarter-end booksquaring also remains open to speculation. On the other hand, vague rumors continue to swirl about PIMCO outflows from fixed income, which is keeping the asset markets on their toes on both sides of the ledger. Yet stocks remain underwater and Treasuries in the green.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B notes ranging in maturity from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024. The 7- to 10-year sector is pacing the rally as equity markets remain rattled.
10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY trades near 109.35
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10:20 EDTGross's departure from PIMCO could cost the firm $100 B
Gross's departure from PIMCO could cost the firm $100 B in investor outflows, estimated the WSJ, after $10 B in withdrawals already from its $2 trl portfolio after Friday's announcement. It's Total Return Bond ETF rebounded 0.2% this morning after PIMCO management sought to reassure investors, but some analysts estimated the exodus could ultimately be even higher. The latest slump on equities has seen a bid return to Treasuries and futures, though high yield debt has remained under pressure. Outflows from its bond funds, however, may quickly find homes in other rival bond funds, leaving the impact temporary and DoubleLine Capital has already reported inflows, though pension fund CALPERS Friday said it was reserving judgment, while studying its exposure. Others are already moving their funds even as PIMCO management reaches out to reassure its biggest investors and one research report estimates investors could withdraw from 10-30% of their assets. This trend, however, has been in motion since El-Erian's departure, which signaled management turmoil amid underperformance of its funds.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating near lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales fell 1.0% to 104.7 in August
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09:45 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
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09:37 EDTMarket begins week sharply lower
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09:25 EDTChicago Fed's Evans said there is still "substantial slack" in the labor force
Chicago Fed's Evans said there is still "substantial slack" in the labor force, in his speech on "Is It Time to Return to Business-As-Usual Monetary Policy? A Case for Patience" before the NABE in Chicago. His answer is "no." Though there have been signs of improvement, the signals have been conflicting and he believes the recovery is still far from complete, as he made his case for patience. That's a stance he's maintained for some time now too. In conclusion he indicated he's "very uncomfortable with calls to raise our policy rate sooner than later" and he favors delaying liftoff until he is more certain that there is sufficient momentum in place toward the FOMC"s goals. And not only does he want a later liftoff, but he argues for a shallow trajectory on rate hikes in order to ensure the economy's momentum is sustainable in the presence of less accommodation. Remember Evans is a 2015 voter, along with the dovish Williams and Lockhart. Lacker will be the only real hawk next year.
09:15 EDTToday's U.S. income report revealed modest August shortfalls
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large package traded
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are back under pressure
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08:45 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.3% in August with spending up 0.5%
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08:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 24 cents
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields have rotated lower
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
FX Action: The dollar edged higher after the about in-line income and consumption data, taking EUR-USD back under 1.2700, and USD-JPY over 109.40. Equity futures remain deep in red territory, while yields are a touch easier than opening levels.
08:34 EDTFutures remain lower following economic data
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08:30 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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08:20 EDTChicago Fed's Evans said it will be "quite some time" before the Fed hikes
Chicago Fed's Evans said it will be "quite some time" before the Fed hikes rates as he tried to explain what "considerable time" means, in a CNBC interview ahead of the NABE meeting in Chicago. The ultimate decision on rate liftoff will depend on the consensus view of the Committee. While he suggested June is a good bet, in his own view he'd be more comfortable with something beyond that as he wants to ensure the 2% inflation target is hit. It's ok to go a little past that too, he thinks. On why extreme measures are still being used by the FOMC, he said "you've got to be kidding me" and referred back to the stagnating situations in Europe and Japan, which have had to backtrack after starting to raise rates. He did not really answer the question of whether forward guidance language will have to change before the Fed starts raising rates and he's quite comfortable with the current language. These aren't surprising comments from one of the most dovish members of the FOMC. Note he rotates into voting status in 2015.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar traded on a affirmer footing in London trade, though has given back gains into the N.Y. open. EUR-USD made new trend lows of 1.2664, though has since edged over 1.2700, as USD-JPY posted multi-year highs of 109.74, before falling back under 109.40. Both the yen and euro remain in sell-the-rally mode however, as both the BoJ and ECB remain on easing paths. The ECB meeting this week should not result in full-scale QE, though dovish noises from the Bank should keep the euro pressured. The U.S. calendar reveals August personal income and PCE at 8:30 EDT, followed by August pending home sales at 10:00 EDT, and the Dallas Fed index at 10:30 EDT.
07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, as are core European debt markets, as equities lose traction. The yield on the 10-year note has fallen to 2.50% and the German Bund is holding under 1.0%. Trading has been on the light side. Overseas data were mixed with a slightly higher than expected German HICP offsetting a dip in the ESI economic confidence measure. U.K. lending data was also a little above forecasts. It's a hectic schedule in the U.S. as Q3 comes to an end. There are many key reports this week to help guide the outlook on the economy, including Friday's employment numbers. Month- and quarter-end dynamics could distort flows, while all trading will also be sensitive to the ECB meeting (Thursday). Today's data on August personal income and consumption will be important for fine tuning Q2 and Q3 GDP forecasts. There are also pending home sales for August and the September Dallas Fed manufacturing index. There will be comments from the dovish Chicago Fed president Evans who speaks at an economics conference. The NY Fed will be a buyer of $2.0 B to $2.5 B notes ranging in maturity from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024.
07:30 EDTFutures lower as market volatility continues
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07:29 EDTChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans to speak at annual meeting
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07:28 EDTFDA Food Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:21 EDTCitigroup to hold a symposium
Frontier Markets Symposium to be held in London, England on September 29-30.
07:19 EDTBTIG to hold a conference
Emerging Technologies in Healthcare Diagnostics Conference to be held in New York on September 29-30.
07:15 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a conference
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07:13 EDTDA Davidison semicap equipment analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs
FX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs against most of the main currencies as markets continued to digest the strong U.S. growth number of last week. EUR-USD logged a fresh 22-month low at 1.2669, which is just seven pips short of the November 2013 low. The euro lifted following perkier than expected German state CPI numbers and a rise in Spanish HICP, but the move stalled just shy of 1.2700. The market remains keen to sell the euro on rallies ahead of this week's ECB meeting in light of Draghi's "risk of doing too little outweigh risks for doing too much" speech last week. USD-JPY broke through 109.50 option barriers on route to a new six-year peak at 109.74. AUD-USD saw a new nine-month low of 0.8664. NZD-USD saw sharp losses after the publication of RBNZ forex transaction data, which showed that the central bank sold NZD 521 M last month in an intervention initiative to drive the currency lower. The NZD logged a 13-month low at 0.7708. New Zealand PM also said that the "Goldilocks" level for the NZ dollar is around 65 cents.
07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs
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05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 29
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05:56 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY broke through 109.50 option barriers
FX Action: USD-JPY broke through 109.50 option barriers earlier on route to a new six-year peak at 109.74. The move reflected broad dollar gains as the market continued to digest the strong U.S. growth number of last week. PM Abe said that a decision must be made by year-end about whether the economy could cope with a second sales tax increase next year, while BOJ’s Kuroda said that the moderate recovery trend should persist. Analysts are expecting USD-JPY to breach 110.00, which is a reportedly major option barrier level.
03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY broke through 109.50 option barriers
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs
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September 26, 2014
19:55 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A Friday asset allocation swing from bonds into stocks was the temporary fix ahead of quarter-end for jumpy portfolio managers after news broke that PIMCO Bond King Bill Gross jumped ship to Janus before being forced to walk the plank. This followed hot on the heels of stock portfolio liquidations that day prior by hedge fund BlueCrest that caught the complacent stock market napping. Upward revisions on Q2 GDP and unrevisions on Michigan Sentiment were lost in the shuffle, though risk of a "Black Swan" type event seemed overblown. That said, there was plenty of positioning on Treasury futures and options rumored somehow related to the fallout from the dramatic management reshuffle.
13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy put buying
Treasury Option Action: heavy put buying featured as part of the sum total of options activity today, in addition to earlier reported rumors of position unwinds relating to a management shift at a large bond fund. Sources confirmed the large "8x1 ratio put spread" executed in pit trade was a net vol purchase involving a 40k purchase of November 122.5 puts vs a sale of 5k in November 123 puts. In addition to that sizeable trade there were about 25k in purchases of various put strikes, combos and trades ranging from 119.5 to 124-00 puts. Underlying December 10-year futures are 10-ticks lower at 124-14, compared to a 124-295 to 124-115 session range - in line with the panicky sell-off.
13:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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12:25 EDTGross had been levering up PIMCO's bond portfolio
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: more large unwind rumors
Treasury Option Action: more large unwind rumors continue to swirl after "you know who left you know where in a huff." This included a large "8x1 ratio put spread" executed in pit trade; a 40k purchase of November 122.5 puts vs a sale of 5k in November 123 puts. Underlying December 10-year futures are 8.5-ticks lower at 124-155, compared to a 124-295 to 124-135 session range.
10:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:22 EDTAverages rebound after Nike report, upward revision to Q2 GDP
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10:15 EDTThe September Michigan sentiment rise
The September Michigan sentiment rise to an unrevised 84.6 extended the 0.7 August rise to 82.5, as Michigan sentiment climbed above the narrow 81.8-82.5 range of the prior four months, but remained below the 85.1 cycle-high from July of 2013. Today's lack of an upward headline revision breaks the pattern of consistent boosts in every prior month of 2014, though the average size of the monthly boost has fallen in half to 0.9 this year from a larger 1.8 average in 2013. For other surveys, the RBC-IPSOS index rose to a 52.4 cycle-high from 51.5, versus a 51.8 prior cycle-high in March that was also seen last June. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 45.2 from 44.5, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has slipped through the first three weeks of September to a most recent 35.5 from averages of 37.0 in August and a cycle-high 37.1 in July, versus a 36.4 temporary high in July of 2013. Analysts expect a September consumer confidence drop to 91.0 from a cycle-high 92.4 in August, versus last year's temporary June peak of 82.1.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher after the Michigan sentiment
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields have simmered down
Treasury Action: yields have simmered down after the knee-jerk reaction to Gross's departure from PIMCO, which spread to high yield and peripheral bonds too. The as expected unrevised U. Michigan release left no discernable mark, though the T-note yield pulled back from 2.55% session highs to the 2.52% area after vaulting from 2.50% earlier. Stocks remain jittery too after yesterday's fund portfolio liquidation, which was confirmed today as BlueCrest.
10:05 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 in the final September reading
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: demand for volatility
Treasury Option Action: demand for volatility has been cited with good buying on 2.5k December 138 bond straddles, rumored to be a West Coast fund in the midst of a management reshuffle. Dec bonds are 7-ticks lower now near 137-19.
09:30 EDTPIMCO's Gross: decided to join Janus Capital Group
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made new trend highs
FX Action: USD-CAD made new trend highs of 1.1137, after finding support just under 1.11 into the North America open. Fresh bidding interest is now reported coming in at 1.1100, with intra day stops noted at 1.1090. To the upside, the March 26 high of 1.1170 should provide good interim resistance.
09:22 EDTSPDR Lehman High Yield Bond volatility low as yield trends higher
SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond overall option implied volatility of 7 is below its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities shed gains
U.S. equities shed gains even after European bourses turned the corner slightly on yesterday's steep losses even as Asia caught up on the downside overnight. Q2 GDP was revised up to 4.6% as expected, though the markets are still focused on downside risks as the Fed seeks a graceful exit from QE. News of Bill Gross's departure from PIMCO for Janus appeared to attract more interest, however, as parent Allianz sinks 3% and Janus surges 20%. There was also a WSJ report that BlueCrest sacked equity fund managers yesterday and some of its stock portfolio, contributing to the sell-off then. In Asia, Japan's N-225 sank 0.88%, while the Japan Topix of financial shares tumbled 1.08% and the Shanghai Comp rose 0.11%. Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.4%, while the German DAX is in shallow negative territory. The Dow is 2-points lower, S&P sank 5-points and NASDAQ is off 2-points ahead of the opening bell, below earlier highs. In corporate action, NIKE surged over 7% in pre-market action after a solid earnings report, as did Micron Technology which rallied over 6%. U.S. shares of Canada's Blackberry also rallied 4% after cutting its losses. Final U. Michigan sentiment is due next.
09:00 EDTBlueCrest Capital Management LLP was cited by the WSJ
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09:00 EDTThe Q2 GDP growth boost to 4.6%
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged up
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08:45 EDTU.S. GDP grew at a 4.6% rate in Q2
U.S. GDP grew at a 4.6% rate in Q2, revised up from 4.2% previously and 4.0% in the Advance report. Personal consumption expenditure growth held at 2.5%, where it's been since the first report. Fixed investment came in at a 9.5% rate, boosted from 8.1% in the second report (and from 5.9% originally), with nonresidential spending revised up to 9.7% versus the prior 8.4%, and residential spending up 8.8% compared to 7.2%. Inventories added $49.6 B compared to $48.7 B previously. Net imports subtracted $13.2 B after adding $6.8 B previously. Government spending climbed 1.7% in the final Q2 reading versus 1.4% previously. The GDP price chain price index was steady at a 2.1% pace, with the core rate holding at 2.0% compared to the prior report, and versus respective rates of 2.0% and 1.5% in the Advance report.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained subdued
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08:39 EDTFutures still pointing to higher open after Q2 GDP growth revised higher
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08:15 EDTU.S. Q2 GDP preview:
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08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 54 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 54 cents at $93.07 into the open, with prices up on profit taking into the end of week/month/quarter. The contract found solid support on the $90 handle early in the week, and has been building a base since Monday, print higher daily lows since then. The ample supply/weak demand picture remains in place however, so the current rally is not likely to last too long. For the most part, a $90-95 trading range may be in place for the foreseeable future.
07:46 EDTFDA to hold a public meeting
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have shed earlier gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have shed earlier gains as the 10-year yield edges up to 2.50% after testing 2.48% in Asian trading. European and Asian sovereigns remain higher with the German Bund yield at 0.95% while the 10-year JGB sits at 0.51%. Sources report real money accounts were noted sellers of Treasuries to purchase other sovereigns. Stocks in Asia ended in the red following Wall Street's plunge Thursday, as U.S. equity futures and European bourses rebound. The dollar is firmer. Weaker than expected German confidence data helped propel bonds higher, while German import prices decelerated further to a -1.9% y/y rate, while Japanese CPI came in below expectations. Supply is out of the way in the U.S. the time being, and that could give some support to Treasuries headed into month- and quarter-end. Data today includes the third revision to Q2 GDP, with growth expected to be boosted to 4.4% from 4.2% previously. The final reading on consumer sentiment for September is also due and is expected to edge up to 85.0 from the preliminary 84.6.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: FX trade was relatively quiet overnight, with major dollar pairings plying familiar ranges for the most part. Notable exceptions were the CAD and AUD, which both printed trend lows. EUR-USD short covering seen on Thursday appears to have run its course, and dollar friendly U.S./German yield differentials, and a dovish ECB should keep the pressure on the euro for the time being. USD-JPY is back on the 109 handle, with the yen weighed down some by cooler Japan inflations data. The U.S. calendar reveals the third Q2 GDP report at 8:30 EDT, followed by the final September U. of Michigan sentiment survey at 9:55 EDT.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar majors have been comparatively steady
FX Update: The dollar majors have been comparatively steady in pre-U.S. open trade Friday. USD-JPY lifted from the mid-108s back above 109.00 on slightly tamer than expected CPI data out of Japan. EUR-USD consolidated the gains seen in the wake of yesterday's somber set of data out of the U.S., remaining in a narrow range in the mid-127s and leaving the 22-month low at 1.2697 untroubled. The dollar bloc currencies fell to fresh lows as Asian equity markets posted another negative session, before managing a rebound during the European AM as asset markets steadied. AUD-USD saw a seven-month low of 0.8751, NZD-USD a one-year low at 0.7886 and USD-CAD a seven-month high at 1.1132.
06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 26
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06:00 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been oscillating around 109.00
FX Action: USD-JPY has been oscillating around 109.00 after lifting from the mid-108s during the Tokyo session following a slightly weaker than expected core CPI figure out of Japan, of 3.1%, and just 1.1% y/y in the ex-sales tax effect outcome. Resistance is marked by yesterday's high at 109.37 peak and last week's six-year high at 109.46. Reportedly major option barrier levels lie at 109.50 and 110.00. Japanese PM Abe this week expressed concern about the pace of recent yen weakness, a view that BoJ policymakers are in accordance with, although a weaker yen remains part of their strategy to achieve the 2.0% CPI target. Analysts expect to see the dollar trade above 110.00 before long.
02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar bloc currencies fell to fresh lows
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September 25, 2014
20:30 EDTJapan's core CPI rose 3.1% y/y in August
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Bonds caught a bid again as stocks resumed their self-destruction led by the tech sector and problems on the rollout of Apple's iOS 8 for its newly minted i-6s. Europe got swept into the bearish equity vortex thanks to Russian gas supply threats and failed to turn those frowns upside down after the S&P 500 broke below its 50-day m.a. and the VIX shot nearly 20% higher to test 16.0. The strong dollar index hit fresh cycle highs over 85.40 before pulling back after rather somber data stateside wasn't particularly helpful. The final 7-year leg in the Treasury auction series tailed without any visable concession to support it, while Fed dove Lockhart largely remained true to his monetary species.
14:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
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13:35 EDTFed's Lockhart said liftoff conditions will ripen in 2015
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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13:10 EDTTreasury's 7-year auction was not good
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12:55 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview:
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was supported into 1.1080
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11:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility bolted 19% higher to test 16.0
U.S. VIX equity volatility bolted 19% higher to test 16.0 before pausing, well up from 14.11 opening levels after the S&P 500 broke below its 50-day m.a. near 1,976 and carried that bearish momentum lower to 1,972. Now well up from September lows of 11.52, that puts the VIX on track to test 17.57 August 1 highs set at the peak of the Ukraine crisis, while pullbacks will eye the 50-day m.a. at 13.26 and 200-day m.a. at 13.54.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
Treasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday. The volume was boosted by $1 B from this week's size, with the increase coming in the longer tranche, bringing it to $24 B. The 3-month bill was left at $24 B. Supply is very light next week with just bills on tap.
11:00 EDTU.S. equity losses have accelerated
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10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made intra day lows of 108.68
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10:31 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 19
Gas inventories 97 Bcf build vs. consensus of 95 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields sank to 2-week lows
Treasury Action: yields sank to 2-week lows following the drop in the Markit services PMI to 4-month lows, which set off the bulls again in line with steep opening losses on Wall Street. The T-note yield probed to lows of 2.524%, well off Weds highs near 2.57% and close to the 2.50% psych area. That has kept a lid on the curve, which remains flat near +195 bp.
10:10 EDTTreasury Action: bond yields are following the drop in equities
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10:04 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures are recently up 92c to 29.22
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10:01 EDTAverages lower in early trade following jobless claims, durable goods
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI (flash) dipped to 58.5 in September
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09:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed an encouraging round of durable goods figures that lifted prospects for Q3 equipment spending, though inventories and shipments were lean, alongside a small initial claims bounce to a still-lean 293k that bodes well for September payroll growth that analysts peg at 200k. Analysts still assume 3.0% Q3 GDP growth, though with a firm 12% Q3 growth clip for equipment spending after a Q2 GDP growth boost to 4.4% from 4.2%, and analysts lifted our Q4 GDP growth estimate modestly to 3.5%.
09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. durables report slightly beat estimates
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities reclined into the red
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped some
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08:45 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims bounce
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated lower
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08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders fell 18.2% in August
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 12k to 293k in the week ended September 20
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08:20 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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08:10 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview:
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08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD collapsed to nearly two-year lows under 1.2700 in London trade, recovering marginally as the N.Y. session begins. Draghi's "risk of doing too little outweigh risks for doing too much" comment on Wednesday has been the driver of the euro's latest retreat, and further losses appear to be in the cards. USD-JPY is back over 109.00, though has so far been unable to take out its 109.46 trend high. The U.S. calendar reveals the August durables report, and weekly jobless claims, both at 8:30 EDT.
07:40 EDTMore Fedspeak is due from Atlanta Fed dove Lockhart
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are mostly higher
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07:35 EDTAtlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Lockhart speaks on the economy
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07:13 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
4th Annual Women in Asian Business Conference to be held in Singapore on September 25.
07:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD smahed 2013 lows
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05:58 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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02:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar extended gains
FX Action: The dollar extended gains pretty much across-the-board. EUR-USD logged a fresh 14-month low of 1.2762, which is seven pips shy of the July 2013 low and brings the overall 2013 nadir at 1.2745 into scope. ECB Draghi's "risk of doing to little outweigh risks for doing to much" speech has continued to resonate in markets following weak set of confidence surveys out of the Eurozone, which contrasted to yesterday's upbeat solid U.S. new home sales data. Analysts anticipate today's U.S. jobless claims and durables data to show some relative weakness, correcting strength in the prior month in the case of the latter, which if right, might provide a speed-bump to the dollar-bullish market. USD-JPY lifted to a 109.34 high, but the yen traded firmer against other currencies and last week's six-year high at 109.45 remained out of reach. NZD-USD dove sharply on remarks by RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Cable dipped to a two-day low of 1.6308.
September 24, 2014
16:45 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:05 EDTFed dove Evans Q&A: "considerable time" has a lot of conditionality
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13:40 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury auctions $29 B in 7-year notes Thursday
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13:30 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields topped out
Treasury Action: intermediate yields topped out after mixed reception for the 5-year auction, which begat selling initially followed by a little short-covering. The current 5-year yield nosed up toward 1.79% before pulling back to 1.78% compared to session lows of 1.764% and the 1.80% award rate on the new notes.
13:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY did indeed stall out just under 109.00
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13:15 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans said the Fed should be "exceptionally patient"
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year note auction wasn't great
Treasury's $35 B 5-year note auction wasn't great and underperformed yesterday's 2-year results.. The auction tailed slightly, stopping at 1.80% versus 1.795% at the bid deadline. There were $89.6 B in bids for a 2.56 cover, less than the 2.81 at the prior two sales, and below the 2.73 average. Indirect bidders took 50.3% compared to 52.7% in August and a 46.8% average. Direct bidders were awarded 8.8% against 10.8% previously, while primary dealers accepted 41.0% compared to 36.4%.
12:55 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
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12:30 EDTCleveland Fed rookie Mester sounded hawkish
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12:20 EDTU.S. equities staged a rebound
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was solid
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is on intra day highs over 10895
FX Action: USD-JPY is on intra day highs over 10895, with the pairing finding support on the back of improved risk taking levels, and slightly firmer Treasury yields. Japanese exporter offers are still rumored to be parked from 109.00, though this remains to be seen.
11:20 EDTNY Fed Ops purchased $992 M bonds
NY Fed Ops purchased $992 M bonds out of $4.69 B offered for consideration, with maturities from February 2036 - February 2044.
11:10 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility stalled under 15.0
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10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD's rally to 1.1122 six-month highs
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10:45 EDTThe 18.0% U.S. new home sales spike
The 18.0% U.S. new home sales spike to a 504k cycle-high rate in August followed a big July boost to a 427k (was 412k) clip, after small diverging prior revisions that left rates of 419k (was 422k) in June and 458k (was a 454k) in May. The sales data now show a substantial Q3 "catch up" in the new home segment after a disappointing Q2 performance, alongside an inventory climb through August to a four-year high, but a 3.5% three-month median price drop from an all-time high in May. Analysts now expect new home sales to post a 464k cycle-high average in Q3, after an early-2014 stalling that left averages of 430k in Q2 and 431k in Q1, versus a higher 446k in Q4. Analysts're seeing an erratic climb from cycle-lows for new, pending, and existing home sales, as well as housing starts, permits, new home construction and the NAHB index. The housing sector continues to recover in the face of a jittery buyer and difficult financing conditions, and today's big pop only partly makes up for the earlier 2014 shortfall.
10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 19
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10:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's another day of solid issuance
U.S. corporate bond update: it's another day of solid issuance, even as the Treasury is in the midst of its late-month bundle of auctions. Rentenbank has a $1.25 B global 7-year note. Compass Bank is selling benchmark sized 3- and 5-year notes, while Ally Financial plans a benchmark 3- and 10-year. Ensco has a benchmark 10- and 30-year deal. Tennessee Valley is selling benchmark 10s. OKB is offering benchmark 7-year notes. Abbey National Treasury is selling benchmark 3s, while Suntory has a 2-parter, including 3s and 5s, also of benchmark size. For the two days this week, volume tops $22.5 B.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through Augsut 15, 2044. Treasuries are little changed with the 30-year bond at 3.248%.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar traded to session highs
FX Action: The dollar traded to session highs versus most major currencies following the much stronger new home sales outcome. EUR-USD eased to fresh trend lows of 1.2777, as USD-JPY topped over 108.85. Yields are easier however, and equities have given back their modest opening gains, wit major indices now underwater again.
10:10 EDTChina's central bank chief may be swept out
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales rebounded a strong 18.0% to 504k in August
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
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09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: demand for put spreads
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities snapped back from lows
U.S. equities snapped back from lows with the rebound in Europe, precipitated by the ECB continuing to pledge to do everything it can to stem deflation, even as the German Ifo deteriorated. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.5% higher, after the Shanghai Comp rallied 1.47% and the Nikkei kicked off fall with a 0.24% decline. Ahead of the release of new home sales, which are expected to bounce 4.4% in August, the Dow is 39-points firmer, S&P gained 4-points and NASDAQ is 11-points firmer. In company news, Bed Bath & Beyond surged over 6% after beating earnings expectations, while Accenture sank 2% after a miss. Starz gained 5% after talk of a possible bid from 21st Century Fox. Apple's iOS 8 is causing application crashes at higher pace of previous OS roll-outs, which could impact its shares today.
08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 22 cents
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08:02 EDTChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans to be keynote speaker at conference
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans provides the luncheon keynote speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Conference, "Labor Market Slack: Assessing and Addressing in Real Time", being held in Washington, D.C. on September 24 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Atlanta to hold a luncheon discussion
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07:55 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society holds a discussion
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07:52 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester to speak at luncheon meeting
President & CEO Mester of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland speaks on the economic outlook, monetary policy and communications before the Cleveland Association for Business Economics Luncheon Meeting being held in Cleveland, Ohio on September 24 at 11:30 am.
07:49 EDTSecurities and Exchange Commission to hold a closed commission meeting
Closed Commission Meeting to be held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on September 24 at 10 am.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:41 EDTEchelon Partners to hold a summit
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 4.1%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little weaker
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little weaker, in contrast to gains in European and most Asian sovereign bond markets after some weaker than expected data overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.54% from 2.52% in Asian action. The belly of the curve is underperforming, however, ahead of today's 5-year note auction, and given its susceptibility to Fed policy. News overnight, including slump in the German Ifo confidence index, including a worrying drop in the expectations component, and a dip in Japan's Markit PMI. There's not a lot on today's calendar. Along with the aforementioned supply, there's data on August new home sales. The MBA just reported mortgage applications dropped 4.1% in the week ended September 20. There is Fedspeak from Mester and Evans. The NY Fed will purchase $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through Augsut 15, 2044.
07:31 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:29 EDTFederal Reserve System & Conference of State Bank Supervisors hold a conference
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded softer versus the yen and Aussie
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05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 24
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04:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is oscillating near the day's lows
FX Action: USD-JPY is oscillating near the day's lows at 108.45-50 after softening during the Tokyo session as Japanese PM Abe expressed concern about the pace of recent yen weakness. The same is also true for BoJ policymakers, though a weaker yen remains part of their strategy to achieve the 2.0% CPI target. Yesterday's one-week low at 108.25 in USD-JPY remains unchallenged. This and 108.00 mark key near-term support levels, while 108.99 (yesterday's high) is near-term resistance. Above here analysts have Friday's six-year peak at 109.46 and reportedly major option barrier levels at 109.50 and 110.00.
02:20 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY saw some volatility,
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September 23, 2014
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:15 EDTU.S. equities continue to trickle lower
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13:35 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: August new home sales are expected to grow by 4.4% to 430k (median 430k) after a 2.4% decline to 412k in July. Housing starts for the month have already been released and revealed a decline to 956k from 1,117k in July.
13:30 EDTU.S. corporate debt: Sysco attracted over $20 B in orders
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained subdued
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13:15 EDTThe U.S. $29 B 2-year auction attracted strong demand.
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13:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD gains have been ongoing
FX Action: USD-CAD gains have been ongoing, with the pairing breaking through last Tuesday's 1.1071 peak, on its way to 1.1083. Upside progress is expected to slow from here however, with a variety of sellers reportedly on the offer from 1.1080 to 1.1100. Stops can be expected over 1.1100.
12:45 EDTU.S. corporate debt: multi-tranchers abound
U.S. corporate debt: multi-tranchers abound with several pending today as the 2-year auction comes into view. Among them are a 6-trancher from Sysco, a 2-trancher from Hyundai, 2-trancher by ING Bank, along with other individual offerings from Kommuninvest, Nordic Investment, Samarco among others. Look for some rate lock hedging and unwinds to pepper the session, with some potential to stimulate the price action after a rather dull start.
12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another flurry of activity
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11:25 EDTNY Fed Ops purchased $1.78 B Treasuries
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11:20 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields held steady above lows
Treasury Action: yields held steady above lows following the round of second-tier Markit and Richmond Fed releases, with the bounce on the latter perhaps giving stocks a little leg up from lows, conveniently coinciding with the rebound in USD-JPY from lows. The T-note yield is holding near 2.55%, having found support earlier under 2.54%. Against the grain of $29 B in 2-year supply later the 2-year yield has eased slightly from 0.557% overnight highs to 0.548%. The 2s-10s spread continues to loiter around +200 bp.
10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has so far come up short
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10:10 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed index was 14 in September
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit manufacturing PMI was 57.9 in September
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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09:42 EDTInversion rules seen crimping M&A, stocks lower in early trade
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: subdued price action
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09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.1% in July to 212.7
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09:15 EDTSt. Louis Fed dove Bullard gave little away in welcome remarks
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back toward the top
FX Action: USD-CAD is back toward the top of its intra day range following the disappointing Canadian retail sales data. The pairing has rallied to 1.1040 highs, near its overnight peak of 1.1049. The softer risk backdrop has weighed on the CAD as well, though firmed up oil and gold prices have perhaps offset to a degree. September 16 high of 1.1071 is the next upside target, though option backed offers are reported into the 1.1100 area.
08:45 EDTU.S. FHFA home prices index preview:
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08:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 75 cents
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities have retreated
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08:33 EDTKansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George is keynote speaker
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08:28 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard to speak at conference
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08:25 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Powell to speak at conference
Governor Powell of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides an overview of the 2014 Community Bank Research & Policy Initiative being held in St.Louis, MO on September 23 at 9:20 am. Webcast Link
08:19 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard to speak at conference
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08:17 EDTCFA Society of San Francisco to hold a discussion
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08:11 EDTFCC to hold a council meeting
Technological Advisory Council Meeting to be held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices to discuss progress on the work initiatives discussed at the previous meeting on September 23 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
08:08 EDTCFA Society of Baltimore to hold a luncheon meeting
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded a scant 0.1%
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07:56 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to hold a conference
Shift Innovation: Community Development Conference to be held in Kansas City, Missouri on September 22-23.
07:51 EDTFederal Reserve System & Conference of State Bank Supervisors hold a conference
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:42 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds extended gains modestly
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds extended gains modestly in overnight action as stocks continued to erode. Trading volume was on the light side, however. The 10-year Treasury yield tested 2.53% earlier on the back of the drop in the German Bund yield under 1.0%, though both have edged up from those levels. Interestingly, a better than expected flash PMI print from China at 50.5 was mostly shrugged off. European national PMIs were mixed. Meanwhile, U.K. mortgage approvals and government borrowing data worsened. In the U.S. the bond market must absorb $29 B in 2-year notes which kicks off $93 B in coupon offerings. As for data there is the Markit PMI for September, along with the July FHFA home price index, and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index, along with weekly chain store sales. Fedspeak from doves and hawks will be of interest, but may result in more confusion rather than clarity on rate lift-off. The Fed's Bullard gives opening remarks for his bank's community banking conference, where George and Powell are speaking. George will also be speaking on the economy later in the evening. Kocherlakota appears at a town hall forum. The NY Fed will purchase $1.60 B to $1.90 B in notes dated from June 30, 2019 through May 31, 2020.
07:27 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
2014 Risk Management Workshop to be held in New York on September 23-24.
07:11 EDTFutures pointing to lower open after inversion crackdown, Syria strikes
Stock index futures are pointing toward a lower open, indicating the market may continue yesterday's slide after the opening bell rings. Before the open, the FHFA house price index for July is due at 9:00 am ET. Markit's report on manufacturing in September is expected soon after the bell, to be followed by the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September at 10:00 am ET.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded softer
FX Update: The dollar has traded softer amid position trimming and a lack of fresh bullish catalysts. USD-JPY led the way, descending over 50 pips to new low for the week at 108.25. EUR-USD lifted to a high of 1.2895, stalling shy of 1.2900. AUD-USD recovered a good portion of the losses it saw yesterday. The Aussie was lifted during Sydney trade by an above-forecast China flash PMI from HSBC-Markit. Cable saw choppy price action: a wave of selling was seen from around 1.6390 before the pair dove to a low of 1.6302 before finding a footing, and subsequently recovering to the mid-to-high 1.63s as the dollar came under broad pressure. As-expected U.K. government borrowing data and sub-forecast BBA mortgage data had little impact. Eurozone data were mixed, with a firm business confidence reading out of France offset by a slightly softer than expected Eurozone composite September PMI reading.
06:46 EDTTwo Fed hawks to retire in early 2015, NY Times says
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06:39 EDTEuro zone PMI weakened in September, NY Times says
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 23
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.71%, DAX down 1.07%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $91.16, natural gas up 1.17%, gold at $1225 an ounce, and copper up 0.21%.
05:50 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
03:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is trading softer
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02:25 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed
FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed in pre-Europe FX trade in Asia. An above-forecast China flash HSBC-Markit manufacturing PMI helped lift stocks in the region, but had limit impact on currencies, aside from helping generate a moderate bid in the AUD, which lifted above 0.8900 against the USD, recovering a good portion of yesterday's losses to a six-month low at 0.8852. News that BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance are to cut 700 mining jobs had little impact. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a narrow 108.60-75 range, with the consolidation of the sharp gains seen over the last month continued. EUR-USD saw a 1.2842-1.2858 range, also remaining in consolidation mode. Sterling traded on the firm side, with Cable managing to make a two-day high of 1.6391 and EUR-GBP a two-day low of 0.7841.
September 22, 2014
18:16 EDTTreasury Department to outline new steps to reduce tax inversions, AP reports
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish position liquidation
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13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied to a one-week high
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13:30 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
Economic Club of Marquette County holds a dinner meeting where Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy objectives in Marquette, Michigan on September 22 at 7:30 pm.
13:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Fall kicks off with a healthy dose of issuance
U.S. corporate bond update: Fall kicks off with a healthy dose of issuance, which will compete against the Treasury's $193 B in total offerings. Indeed, this will be the busiest session since the beginning of September. Heading the list is a hefty 6-parter (all benchmark size) from Roche Holdings, including a 3-year fixed/FRN, a 5-year fixed/FRN, along with 7- and 10-year notes. There is also a $1 B 4-year global from ADB. GM Financial is selling benchmark 3- and 7-year notes. Thomson Reuters is offering benchmark 3s and 10s. Tiffany has a $500 M 2-parter, split equally between 10- and 30-year paper.
13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: sales of short-dated put spreads
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12:22 EDTThe Hamilton Project to hold a roundtable discussion
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12:20 EDTTreasury Action: supply hits this week with $93 B in coupon auctions
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11:45 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: "a whopper block"
More euro$ interest rate options: "a whopper block" is how sources describe a purchase of 40k in June 91/93 put spreads vs a sale of 40k in June 96 calls, with the package covered on the June 2015s at 99.445 (17 delta, 2.5 price). This came along with a purchase of 80k in Short June 78/81 put spreads vs a sale of 80k in June 90/92 put spreads, covered on the Short June 2016 leg at 98.365 (11 delta). Indeed, a whopper. The deferred contracts continue to creep higher, up some 1-7 ticks now.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $47 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY ran up to 109.19 highs
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
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10:55 EDTMore from Dudley: he'd be "very happy"
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10:40 EDTNo Slowdown in Sight for U.S. Sentiment:
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields held above lows
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10:25 EDTU.S. existing home sales undershot estimates
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10:25 EDTFed's Dudley said a below 2% inflation target argues for patience on rates
Fed's Dudley said a below 2% inflation target argues for patience on rates, in comments at a Bloomberg summit. Inflation remains soft because of excess economic slack. He noted there are ongoing risks to growth, including events in Ukraine and Ebola. The FOMC's forward guidance is not an "iron-clad commitment" he reminded, and rate action will be driven by economic data. He also cautioned not to overweight the value of the "Dot Plot." The Fed will be improving its communications if it can. These aren't surprising comments from Dudley, who is one of the more dovish on the Committee.
10:15 EDTPhilly Fed's Plosser announced his retirement, effective March 1
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales fell 1.8% to 5.05 M in August
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09:55 EDTAverages slip in early trading with Nasdaq lagging
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09:50 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:37 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish activity has picked up
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
U.S. equities are back on the defensive after the fresh downturn in commodity prices to 5-year lows thanks to global growth concerns overnight via China finance minister Lou Jiwei remarks. This came hot on the heels of the record $21.8 B "Baba" IPO last week, which dominated the markets short attention span on Friday. The Dow is 37-points lower, S&P sank 7-points and NASDAQ is off 14-points in pre-market trade. This followed declines on the Nikkei of 0.71% and the Shanghai Comp of 1.7%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng was also 1.44% lower, amid fresh declines on industrial and precious metals and commodity prices more broadly. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.15%, while the UK FTSE fell 0.6%. Yahoo! continued to decline 2% after a lowered rating by Sanford C. Bernstein, though Apple posted record sales of 10 M of the new iPhones over the weekend, boosting its shares. Sigma-Aldrich leapt 35% after a bid from Merck, while EMC rallied 2% after mulling the possibility of a merger. Existing home sales are forecast to decline marginally in August.
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is at session highs
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index dropped to -0.21 in August
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08:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures have perked up
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08:18 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:07 EDTThe FDA to hold a public meeting
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents at $92.56/bbl into the open, recovering some after finding support under $92 overnight. Familiar ranges remain however, and the story hasn't changed much. The backdrop of soft demand and abundant supply should continue to keep pressure on prices, with a $90-95 trading range largely in the cards for now.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: risk off trades have boosted bonds,
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
West Coast Payments Summit to be held in Half Moon Bay, California on September 22-23.
07:30 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:29 EDTNational Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts to hold a forum
NAREIT HR Forum to be held in Boston on September 22-23.
07:28 EDTLongbow to hold a field trip
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07:26 EDTUBS to hold a field trip
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07:25 EDTFutures pointing to lower open after Dow closed last week at record
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07:23 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a seminar
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07:22 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a conference
Bloomberg Market Most Influential Conference to be held in New York on September 22.
07:15 EDTInformation Management Network to hold a conference
20th Annual ABS East Conference to be held in Miami Beach on September 21-23.
07:10 EDTFX Action: The AUD and other dollar units came under pressures
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 22
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05:54 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar is trading a mostly softer levels
FX Update: The dollar is trading a mostly softer levels against most currencies. The case for AUD-USD was an exception as a backdrop of risk aversion -- after China's finance minister said Beijing will not make any "major policy adjustments" in light of recent weak data -- saw the Aussie underperform. AUD-USD hit a new six-month low of 0.8909. EUR-USD, meanwhile lifted to the 1.2865 area from around 1.2830, and Cable saw a similar price action in rising go the mid-1.63s. USD-JPY dipped under 109.00, correcting some after seeing a six-year peak at 109.46 last Friday.
September 19, 2014
16:48 EDTMoody's affirms France 'Aa1' rating; Outlook negative
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16:44 EDTMoody's affirms U.K. 'Aa1' rating; Outlook stable
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the UK's government bond rating at Aa1 and maintained a stable outlook. Moody's decision to affirm the UK's rating follows the outcome of the referendum on Scottish independence, which maintains the 307-year-old union, thereby preserving the country's current institutional and fiscal framework. While the political process going forward will likely lead to further devolution of powers to Scotland and some changes in the fiscal transfers, the rating agency does not anticipate that these will have a material impact on the quality of the UK's institutions, or its financial strength. Indeed, as Moody's indicated in May, the strength of the UK's credit profile would not have changed materially in the event of Scottish independence and therefore such an event would have likely been rating neutral. Reference Link
16:18 EDTFitch affirms U.S. 'AAA' rating; Outlook stable
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States of America's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AAA' with Stable Outlooks. The ratings on senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'AAA'. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. Reference Link
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTFedspeak resumes with a vengeance next week
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14:00 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:45 EDTPreliminary Barclays bond index extension estimates
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13:25 EDTPowerShares Commodity Index volatility flat as index at four-year low
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13:20 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: August Existing home sales data will be released on Monday and analysts expect the headline to fall 0.6% to a 5.120 M (median 5.180 M) pace after a 2.4% increase to 5.150 M in July. The NAHB composite improved for the month with a rise to 55 in August from 53 in July but analysts saw housing starts fall to a 956k pace from 1,117k in July.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: month- and quarter-end are coming into view
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12:30 EDTTreasury Action: supply next week could weigh on the front end of the curve
Treasury Action: supply next week could weigh on the front end of the curve, especially since the bond market is more defensive after the hawkish Dot Plot from the FOMC. The Treasury is selling $93 B in notes next week, including $29 B in 2-year paper, $35 B in 5s, and $29 B in 7s. When-issued yields are little changed this morning to lower currently, but the surge higher following Wednesday's Fed result has the 2-year rate testing 0.62% and the 5-year challenging 1.86%, both of which would be the highest stops in over 3 years. The wi 7-year is at 2.305%, having tested 2.335% (close to April's stop). Despite this run-up, yields may not attract strong domestic demand given the Fed is moving inexorably toward normalization. Many traders are also forecasting still higher rates with the 2-year projected to hit 0.70% and the 5-year at 2.0% before buyers come back. However, foreign investors should again support the auctions given short dated German yields are negative, while Japanese rates are near 0%. Meanwhile, curve strategies are difficult given uncertainty over the trajectory of the normalization process.
12:30 EDTU.S. equities have pulled back
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12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: put selling in the belly
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11:05 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped below 12.0
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10:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another heavy round
Euro$ interest rate options: another heavy round of trading has been the rule in the wake of the FOMC statement, higher dots and policy normalization crib sheet this week, though the price action has been relatively muted so far today. Among multiple packages there was a sale of 40k in November 68/71 put spreads against purchases of 10k in November 65/67 put spreads and 20k in 76/77 put spreads. This was thought to be a liquidation of upper strikes to put on purchases of the lower strikes to hedge against a deeper sell-off on the less benign interest rate outlook. There were others, including a sale of 10k in Blue December 72/73 call 1x2s, thought to be a roll-up to a higher strike. Also, a purchase of 40k in Green December 81/82/83/85 call condors was cited over the session. The December 2014 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.75, while the deferreds are mixed today, 0.5-1.0 ticks lower nearby, but 0.5-4.0 ticks firmer further out.
10:25 EDTDallas Fed dissenting hawk Fisher: concerns about financial excess
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading index edged up 0.2% to 103.8 in August
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Treasury Action: yields backed up from lows following the opening pop in stocks, which were bolstered by the Baba IPO, while the as expected modest increase on the LEI left little discernable mark on the rate complex. Alibaba is indicated at $80-83 according to NYSE market makers compared to its $68 IPO price, but hasn't yet opened due to lack of sellers. The T-note yield reversed from lows of 2.6% to clear 2.62% again compared to overnight highs of 2.655%. The 2s-10s spread is holding at +204 bp.
09:57 EDTDeutsche Bank home/personal care analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Brazilian Retail & HPC Analyst Moraes, European HPC Analyst Thompson and North American HPC Analyst Schmitz discuss the Brazilian HPC market and what global players have to say on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 22 at 10 am.
09:54 EDTCurrency volatility collapses on Scotland vote to remain in U.K.
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust October call option implied volatility is at 5 compared to level of 9 from September 18, December is at 4; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement after Scotland voted remain in the U.K.
09:39 EDTAlibaba IPO, Scottish 'no' vote, quadruple witching to highlight session
U.S. equity futures held steady in positive ground during the pre-market trading session, leading to a higher open for the broader market. The early strength comes on the heels of last night's news that Scotland had voted in favor of remaining within the United Kingdom. The focus of investors today will be the opening of the initial public offering of Alibaba (BABA). It is also "quadruple witching," the quarterly event marked by the expirations of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The event can lead to a volatile session and large volume, which be even more pronounced as the largest U.S. IPO in history takes place. In early trading, the Dow is up 79 points, the Nasdaq is up 14 points and the S&P is up 8 points.
09:30 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took a dive
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities rotated higher
U.S. equities rotated higher with global indices pretty diverse heading into Friday's gauntlet of the Scottish vote, which favored the status quo, and the Alibaba IPO that priced at $68/PS - the top end of its range. The Dow is 62-points higher, S&P gained 5-points and NASDAQ topped 13-points ahead of the open. Stocks around the globe were mixed, however, as Japan's N-225 surged 1.58% thanks to fresh cycle lows on the yen, while the Shanghai Comp rose 0.58%. But in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 is marginally lower as Catalonia considers its future and the UK FTSE 100 is 0.6% firmer as the union with Scotland remained in place. Yahoo shares were active within the NASDAQ, given its sizeable Alibaba holdings. Oracle shares sank 3% after CO Ellison retired to be replaced by two co-CEOs Hurd and Catz. Leading indicators are expected to rise modestly in August, likely leaving less imprint on the price action than any futures and options settlements today.
08:36 EDTJPMorgan retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is firmer
FX Action: USD-CAD is firmer into the Canadian CPI report at 8:30 EDT, moving up to intra day highs of 1.0980, after basing at 1.0940 in Asian dealings. Resistance is seen at 1.1000, with offers layered from 1.0980 to 1.1000. A softer than consensus CPI print however, could bring 1.1020 stops into view.
08:15 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 30 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 30 cents at $92.77/bbl into the N.Y. open, off its recent lows, but finding rally room difficult in light of weak demand and strong supply. Traders do however, see a floor around the $90 mark, as the Winter heating season begins to gear up in the Northern Hemisphere, which should begin to bolster demand.
07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
Open Internet Roundtable: Enforcement will consider ways to enforce the proposed new Open Internet rules, exploring the utility of various current and proposed enforcement tools in the Open Internet context and is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on September 19 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:17 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar is generally firmer
FX Update: The dollar is generally firmer today. EUR-USD is lower by over 50 pips from yesterday's New York closing levels, having seen a low of 1.2866. A similar price action has been seen in other pairings, including Cable which dropped back quite sharply, back under 1.6400, after logging a two-week high at 1.6525 as the market reacted to the decisive "No" to independence outcome of Scotland's referendum. USD-JPY hit a six-year high of 109.46 after Japan's Cabinet Office downgraded its economic assessment, though the yen rebounded during the London AM session, sending the pair back under 109.00. The Fed's statement this week has given an underpinning to the dollar, with the combination of the dovish tone yet hawkish undertones in the SEP having seen the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs and Treasury yields retain a perky tone.
06:45 EDTChinese bank CEO says central bank made $81.4B in loans, Reuters says
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 19
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05:45 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade is today
05:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar is trading generally firmer
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03:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY consolidates after the Tokyo-session surge
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September 18, 2014
15:00 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: the markets remain focused on the Scottish vote
Treasury Action: the markets remain focused on the Scottish vote, which should dominate trading tomorrow as the high degree of uncertainty should make for a volatile reaction to the outcome. The other news Friday will be the Alibaba IPO. There's little on the data calendar to spark interest with just August leading indicators on tap. Meanwhile, traders will be looking ahead to next week's supply with $93 B in short and intermediate dated coupons on tap, which could be a hard sell after the hawkish Fed Dot Plot. Quarter-end is fast approaching too, and flows could become significant. Many corporations are also closing in on fiscal year-end. Fedspeak resurfaces next week with at least 7 regional presidents already on the circuit. There's not a lot of important data between now and the end of the month, however, but the September nonfarm payroll report is due on October 3.
13:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility is 5% lower near 12.0
U.S. VIX equity volatility is 5% lower near 12.0 and is probing post-FOMC lows yesterday of 11.73, which would set sights back down at August lows of 11.24. It would seem that the Fed's smoke screen of retaining a dovish statement and more hawkish rate projections has sufficiently baffled the equity market to not upset the market rally, as stocks continue to edge higher to wind down the week. The approach of the Scottish vote results by tomorrow morning, Alibaba IPO and witching expiries could inspire a bounce in volatilty, but if all those ducks line up for the bulls it could also result in another stab in volatility into the 12-11 zone.
13:15 EDTTreasury $13 B 10-year TIPS was poor
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12:40 EDTU.S. Household net worth rose
U.S. Household net worth rose at a 7.1% rate in Q2 to a record-high $81.5 tln, following a 7.1% (was 7.6%) rate in Q1, according to the Fed's Z.1. Analysts expect a 7% growth rate in net worth in Q3, given equity and home price gains that should leave a 7% Q3 asset rise and a 3% liability climb, following respective Q2 gains of 6.8% and 4.8%. Net worth in Q2 sat 48% above the $55.0 (was $52.0) tln cyclical-trough in Q1 of 2009, and analysts've more than reversed the 19% six-quarter drop from the $67.9 (was $68.1) tln prior cyclical-peak in Q3 of 2007. Asset value growth in Q2 included a 4.1% growth pace for real estate, alongside 8.0% growth for financial asset values. Total liabilities continue to oscillate just 2.8% above the $13.6 (was $13.4) tln cycle-low in Q3 of 2011 that marked a hefty 6.9% decline from the $14.6 (was $13.8) tln cycle-high in Q3 of 2008. Before this cycle, outright drops in liabilities were rare, as analysts last saw a quarterly liability decline in Q1 of 1983 with a 1.9% (was 1.3%) drop. Before that analysts saw a drop in Q1 of 1975 of 0.5% (was 0.4%).
12:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another whopper
Euro$ interest rate options: another whopper entailed the bearish purchase of 40k in Front June 90 puts (covered at 99.415). Earlier there was a purchase of 15k in Red December strangles (vol) as well. Active euro$s remain under pressure on the confusing signals from the Fed.
11:36 EDTSeptember Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has calmed down some
FX Action: USD-JPY has calmed down some, following its nearly 200-point romp higher since yesterday afternoon. The pairing has eased back into 108.65, after again failing to trade the 109 handle earlier. While USD-JPY is primed for further gains given the divergent Fed and BoJ policies, analysts may be in for a short period of consolidation into the weekend, where some profit taking could be set to emerge.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.289 B in notes
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged coupon offering for next week
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11:10 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x3 structure
More euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x3 structure was reported earlier that entailed a bearish purchase of 20k in Short October 88/90 put 2x3s (40k x 60k). There was also a bullish sale of 10k in Short December 87 puts vs 90/92 call spreads and a bearish purchase of 10k in both 87 puts and 88 puts on Short October. Other trades included the bearish purchase of a 5k in Front June 92/95 put 2x3s (10k x 15k), a purchase of 5k in Short October 88/90 put 2x3s, and a bullish 5k sale of 82/83/85/86 put condors. Euro$s remain under pressure in the wake of the Fed dots and normalization plans, with the deferreds up to 7-ticks lower out the back.
10:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury reopens $13 B in 10-year TIPS today
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on intra day lows
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10:40 EDTU.S. equities continue to forge higher
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10:35 EDTU.S. jobs update: the BLS reported a 7k upward revision to March payrolls
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 12
Gas inventories 90 Bcf build vs. consensus of 90 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTThe Philly Fed September drop to 22.5
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10:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: increased bearish put buying
Treasury Option Action: increased bearish put buying has been spotted at the short and intermediate areas between the rounds of data this morning, including the purchases of 15k in December 109 puts on 2-year futures and 5k in October 117 puts on 5-year futures. December 2-year futures are 1.5-ticks lower near 109-107, while December 5s are 9-ticks lower near 117-247.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B in notes
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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09:50 EDTU.S. preliminary employment benchmark revisions for the March data
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09:45 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:38 EDTMarket extends Fed-fueled gains at open
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09:20 EDTAnalysts saw big August drops for U.S. housing starts and permits
Analysts saw big August drops for U.S. housing starts and permits after divergent revisions in the prior two months that lowered the up-trend for housing starts on net, and that left a disappointing report overall. Starts and permits are only slowly reversing the poor sector performance through the seasonally critical Q2 home buying season, with likely headwinds from ongoing mortgage market dysfunction, consumer caution, and a reduction in distressed sales. Starts under construction, which drive new home construction, extended their remarkably steady pace of recovery. Analysts saw a 0.6% August rise that followed gains of 2.6% (was 2.9%) in July, and 1.9% (was 1.2%) in June. There hasn't been a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Analysts expect 23% Q3 growth rate for starts under construction that matches the pace of Q2 (was 22%). Analysts expect GDP growth of 3.0% in Q3 after a boost in Q2 growth to 4.4% from 4.2%, with residential construction growth of 6% in Q3 after an estimated Q2 boost to 8.9% growth from 7.5%.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy block trade
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09:00 EDTFed Chair Yellen didn't comment on policy in her prepared speech
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are fired up again
U.S. equities are fired up again in the aftermath of the mixed Fed reasoning yesterday and with European stocks higher, apparently thinking a Scottish "no" separation vote is in the bag. Yet jobless claims sank 36k and housing starts fell 14.4%, offering a typically mixed picture of the economic outlook, which cooled investor sentiment. Asia was mostly bullish as well with the Shanghai Comp uio 0.35%, while Japan's Nikkei shot 1.13% higher thanks to the rampant dollar, which nearly kissed 109.00. The Dow is 38-points higher, S&P gained 5-points and NASDAQ is up 12-points in pre-market action, below earlier highs. Rite Aid sank 9% after a large profits miss and Pier 1 tumbled 11% after slashing its earnings outlook, while United Natural Foods rallied over 3% after an earnigns beat. Agilent rallied 1.5% after CEO succession plans were put in place and Monsanto gained over 1% after rated a buy by Stifel Nicolas. The Philly Fed index remains a wildcard next.
08:50 EDTThe 36k U.S. initial claims plunge to 280k
The 36k U.S. initial claims plunge to 280k in the BLS survey week more than reversed the 12k Labor Day pop to 316k (was 315k) to leave what is now a lean start for claims in September despite the Labor Day surge. Claims have tightened considerably since the auto retooling period that produced a 279k cycle-low in mid-July. Claims are averaging 297k thus far in September, following higher averages of 303k in August, 296k in July, 315k in June and 312k in May. Today's 280k BLS survey week reading sits well below prior BLS readings of 299k in August, 303k in July, versus 314k in June and 327k in May. Analysts assume a 200k September payroll gain that sits above the disappointing 142k rise of August but below the 207k average of the last twelve months. Analysts assume a 200k per month payroll growth trend into year-end. Payrolls face ongoing upside risk from a firm Q3 trend for initial claims, producer sentiment and ADP, solid vehicle assemblies, and an ongoing consumer confidence climb back above mid-2013 levels.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts dropped 14.4% to 0.956 M in August
U.S. housing starts dropped 14.4% to 0.956 M in August after rebounding 22.9% to 1.117 M in July (was 1.093 M). The latter was the highest since November 2007. Single family starts slipped 2.4% following July's 11.1% jump. Multifamily starts dropped 31.7% after surging 44.9% in July. Building permits fell 5.6% to 0.998 M from July's revised 1.057 M (was 1.052 M).
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 36k to 280k in the week ended September 13
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08:33 EDTFutures suggest higher open following economic data
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is flat
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08:25 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
U.S. Housing Starts Preview: August housing starts should show the pace of starts slowing to 1,040k (median 1,035k) after a 15.7% leap in July to a 1,093k pace. The release will also include permit figures where analysts expect a slowdown to 1,04k from 1,057k in July. Analysts expect completions at 855k from 841k in July.
08:25 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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07:54 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a discussion
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07:53 EDTFDA to hold a teleconference
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07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Assessing and Enhancing Protections in Consumer Financial Services" on September 18 at 11 am. Webcast Link
07:49 EDTThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to hold a meeting
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07:47 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: curve flattening remains the dominate play
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07:40 EDTNYSSA to hold a roundtable
Investment Strategy Roundtable holds monthly meeting to discuss topics important to market participants at NYSSA New York offices on September 18 at 6 pm.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTINVEST Tennessee Equity Conference, LLC to hold a conference
INVEST Tennessee Equity Conference is being held in Nashville,Tennessee on September 18.
07:36 EDTCFA Institute to hold a conference
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07:34 EDTNYSSA to hold a discussion on FOREX Markets
FOREX Markets: Trading, Regulations, and Risk to be held at NYSSA New York offices on September 18.
07:30 EDTFed's reiteration of monetary policy lifts market
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open as the market looks to extend its gains from yesterday. The results of the FOMC meeting were in-line with expectations, and Chairman Yellen made some dovish comments during her press conference. U.S. markets and overseas markets responded by moving higher. Today Investors will be watching the Scottish vote on independence as well as data on domestic weekly jobless claims, housing starts and building permits, and the weekly natural gas inventory report.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been mixed
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06:23 EDTCurrencyShares Japanese Yen volatility flat, dollar at six-year high versus yen
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05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 18
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05:51 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is firmer across-the-board
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September 17, 2014
20:50 EDTJapan's trade deficit improved slightly to -948.5 B yen in August
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16:40 EDTFOMC - Diverging Statement and SEP Takeaways:
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16:05 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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16:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The September Philly Fed will be released on Thursday and the headline should ease to 25.0 (median 22.8) after the August jump to 28.0 from 23.9. The Empire State index has already been released for the month with a big gain to 27.5 from 14.7 last month. Despite this analysts expect that sentiment will ease overall for the month and bring the ISM-adjusted average down to 55 after two months at 56.
15:44 EDTCurrency September volatility elevated at 26 into Scotland vote
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 26, October is at 9, December is at 6; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
15:40 EDTRates getting back to "normal" levels:
Rates getting back to "normal" levels: Yellen downplayed fears that the Fed could fall behind the curve. It's necessary for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative posture longer than would be needed, she said. The question was posed why the SEP forecasts suggest the economy could be back to more normal levels of growth sooner than the funds rate target arrives there, and thus there's danger of the Fed getting behind the curve. Regarding a predictable pace of rate moves, she said such may have contributed to diminished volatility in the markets, she denied it had anything to do with the apparent complacency that might have led to the housing bubble of 2004. She did admit that some policymakers believe somewhat less of a mechanical pace might be better, but that will be up for discussion. With that, the press conference ended.
15:25 EDTFed balance sheet operations:
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15:11 EDTYellen says could take until end of decade to normalize balance sheet
Yellen says growth has been slow relative to past recoveries. Fed Chair Janet Yellen continues speaking in a press conference.
14:55 EDTYellen says 'considerable time' pledge conditional, linked to economy
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14:50 EDTThe FOMC Forecast revisions
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14:40 EDTFOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly
FOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly. The statement leaned to the dovish side give the retention of a couple of key phrases, "considerable time" and "significant underutilization of labor resources." The SEP forecasts were mixed, and to some extent internally inconsistent. The "Dot Plot" turned a bit more hawkish than at the June meeting, with more members looking for the first rate hike next year, and with a slightly higher trajectory of rates. On the other hand, growth estimate for 2014 and 2015 were lowered, although the PCE price index for this year was left steady at 1.5% to 1.7%, and raised for both 2015 and 2016.
14:36 EDTWeek of 9/26 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD had spent the morning session
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14:30 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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14:25 EDTFOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans
FOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans in conjunction with the statement. The first step, when economic conditions and the economic outlook warrant a less accommodative posture, will be to raise the funds rate, to be achieved "primarily by adjusting the interest rate it pays on excess reserve balance." The Fed will use "overnight reverse repos and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the funds rate." The ORR will be used only "to the extent necessary and will phase it out when it is no longer needed." The Fed's security holdings will be reduced in a "gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal, the timing of which will depend on the economy.
14:24 EDTFed changes 2015 inflation outlook to 1.6%-1.9% from 1.5%-2%
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14:22 EDTFed alters 2015 unemployment forecast to 5.4%-5.6% from 5.4%-5.7%
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14:21 EDTFed cuts 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%-3% from 3%-3.2%
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed higher
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14:20 EDTFed maintains 2014 inflation forecast of 1.5%-1.7%
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar spiked higher
FX Action: The dollar spiked higher after the FOMC announcement, despite the Fed keeping the "considerable time" phrase. Yields moved higher, as equities moved from positive to negative, and back to positive again. EUR-USD fell from 1.2960 to 1.2897, as USD-JPY ran up to 108.18 from 107.60. The dollar appears to be moving on the back of divergent central bank policies, as the BoJ and ECB are both still in easing mode, wile the Fed moves toward tightening, albeit at a snail's pace.
14:19 EDTFed lowers 2014 unemployment forecast to 5.9%-6% from 6%-6.1%
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14:18 EDTFed retains 'considerable time' language in policy statement
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14:18 EDTFed lowers 2014 GDP growth outlook to 2%-2.2% from 2.1%-2.3%
14:15 EDTThe FOMC kept the "considerable time" phrase regarding interest rates
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14:03 EDTFed says indicators suggest 'significant underutilization' of labor resources
The Fed statement read, "On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
14:02 EDTAugust Construction Spending to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:02 EDTWeek of 9/26 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:02 EDTFed lowers monthly bond purchases by $10B
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14:00 EDTFed keeps 'considerable time' language in statement
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14:00 EDTT-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement
T-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement. Treasuries are in positive territory ahead of the statement and the SEP release. The Committee will alter its forward guidance to some extent, but will it lean to the dovish or the hawkish side is the question. Longer dated maturities are outperforming in a bullish curve flattening trade on speculation Chair Yellen and Co. will remain relatively friendly and retain the "considerable time" language. Additionally, there's expectation for slight downward revisions to some of the growth forecasts, as well as inflation estimates. Analysts think it would behoove policymakers to drop the date-dependent language sooner rather than later to provide more policy flexibility going forward.
13:45 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
FOMC Forecast revisions will be revealed today, in tandem with the policy statement (and later in the October 8 FOMC minutes). The revisions should prove modest, though analysts do expect small downward bumps in high-end GDP growth estimates for 2014 and 2015, alongside a modest trimming in high-end headline and core PCE chain price forecasts for both years as well. There is little need for adjustment to the jobless rate and Fed funds rate forecasts. The Fed will also add 2017 to its forecast horizon, and analysts expect GDP growth estimates to show a moderation in growth toward the 2.6% long-term trend growth estimate, alongside a further upward-convergence of low-end inflation forecasts toward 2%, and a small cyclical drop in the jobless rate estimates to a band around 5.1%. Analysts assume that Fed GDP estimates will remain modestly above most market forecasts, just as the inflation estimates continue to be skewed lower. For a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts, see our policy outlook page.
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options
Treasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options included bearish purchases of 35k in October 123/123.5 put spreads over the course of the session. Earlier there were bullish purchases of 10k December 127 calls as well. Some delta covering took place at 124-125 and 124-13, according to sources. December 10s are trading hands 3.5-ticks firmer near 124-105, compared to their 124-155 to 124-06 range.
11:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has firmed up some
FX Action: The dollar has firmed up some versus the European majors and the yen, with EUR-USD taking out the London low of 1.2944, and easing into 1.2938, and USD-JPY on intra day highs over 107.60. The euro had touched 1.2981 in the aftermath of the cooler CPI data, as USD-JPY made 107.15 lows. Activity is likely to slow into the FOMC announcement, though it appears the market is leaning toward a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed.
11:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Median CPI inched up 0.1% in August
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11:09 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
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10:45 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 12
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10:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed downside surprises for August headline and core CPI, thanks to weakness in apparel, medical, and tobacco prices alongside an expected big energy price hit. Analysts saw a 0.2% August headline CPI drop with a flat core price figure that left a 1.7% y/y rise for both measures. Analysts also saw a surprisingly lean round of 2014 current account deficits via a surprising Q2 improvement that followed a downwardly-revised Q1 gap, with revisions concentrated in the investment income components. The weak CPI report implies less pressure on the Fed to address the "considerable time" reference at today's FOMC meeting, though the NAHB September pop to a 59 nine-year high and less financial market dislocation in the revised current account figures do cap downside economic risks as well.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained below highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index climbed to 59 in September
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10:01 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
September Housing Market Index at 59 vs. consensus of 56
09:47 EDTMarket opens quietly with investors on Fed watch
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09:40 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. current account deficit narrowed unexpectedly in Q2
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09:15 EDTFOMC began today's meeting
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09:05 EDTThe 0.2% August U.S. CPI headline drop
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish structure on 5-year futures
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09:01 EDTHouse Foreign Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:50 EDTU.S. current account deficit narrowed $3.6 B to -$98.5 in Q2
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.2% in August, while the core rate was unchanged
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields stumbled lower
Treasury Action: yields stumbled lower after the unchanged core reading on CPI, which gives the Fed even more breathing room on the timing of any shift in policy guidance, in line with WSJ reports yesterday that "considerable time" would be retained this time. The T-note yield stalled out over 2.585% ahead of the dat and reversed to 2.56% after failing to clear 2.60% yesterday. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +201 bp, about 3 bp tighter on the week.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell modestly
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08:40 EDTVanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF volatility elevated into FOMC decision
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08:35 EDTFutures show little reaction to CPI report
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08:31 EDTCurrent Account data reported
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08:30 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has steadied
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08:15 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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08:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:05 EDTFederal Reserve Bank Chairperson Janet Yellen holds a press briefing
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08:02 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:01 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold an open meeting
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07:56 EDTFDA to hold a public hearing on Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA)
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07:51 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
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07:49 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 7.9%
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07:35 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Travel & Leisure and U.K. Small & Mid-Cap Conference to be held in London, England on September 17-19.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase, as suggested by the WSJ's Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, and news of a liquidity injection by the PBoC to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.565% after testing 2.62% on Friday. German Bunds are underperforming following an upward revision to August HICP inflation. U.K. Gilts shrugged off solid labor data and instead focused on the cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, an important indicator for the Fed, but it won't have much impact on today's policy vote. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due, along with the Q2 current account, and weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12. The NY Fed will not intervene today.
07:26 EDTFutures drift following yesterday’s advance
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07:24 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTUBS to hold a conference
17th Annual Support and Business Services Conference to be held in London, England on September 17.
07:23 EDTWilliam Blair to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTFX Update Narrow ranges have prevailed
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:48 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 24, October is at 9, December is at 7; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
06:45 EDTEuro zone August inflation rate revised upwards. AP reports
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06:43 EDTChina's central bank injects funds into banks, China Daily reports
China's central bank has injected $81B into the country's five largest banks, Sina.com reported, according to China Daily. Sina.com cited a banking analyst as its source for the news, China Daily stated. Reference Link
06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 17
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04:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low
FX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low to a six-day low of 1.0948. Better Canadian manufacturing data and a steadying in commodity prices have levels helped the CAD rebound, along with position squaring ahead of the FOMC. The March major-trend peak at 1.1278 back looks out of reach. Support is at 1.0920-33 (which encompasses a recent low). August CPI data on Friday will be the next domestic focus for the Loonie, which analysts expect to dip to 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y.
02:20 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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September 16, 2014
17:25 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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16:34 EDTSeptember Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
16:20 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreigners bought $57.7 B in net U.S. assets in July
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15:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Markets were awakened from sleepy pre-FOMC trade with the call by WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath that the Fed is set to retain "considerable time" in its policy lexicon, however premature that conclusion. Prior to that juncture stocks had been underwater and yields above lows after the tame PPI print, still wary of the FOMC, Scotland and the Alibaba IPO all stacking up later in the week. But in the wake of the Hilsen-call that all reversed and the dollar's gains were also punctured. There were also reports that China is set to ramp up liquidity for its 5 biggest banks as well.
14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle, after slipping to 106.82 lows earlier. The Fed will determine direction after the announcement tomorrow, where after today's dollar softness, either direction could have some room to run, depending on the FOMC scale on the hawk-dove scale.
13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures redoubled gains
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13:24 EDTMoody's downgrades Costa Rica rating to Ba1 from Baa3; Outlook stable
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13:00 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD peaked out at 1.2995
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12:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over lower
Treasury Action: yields rolled over lower as the bond market embraces the idea that the FOMC could keep their language intact, which seems to prejudge the outcome a bit since they're just looking over the charts and presentations at the Fed right now and have yet to reach a decision. Yellen is also known for her switch to concensus-building as chairwoman, so this is far from over. Yet the T-note yield stalled over 2.585% and eased back to 2.567%, even with Wall Street about 0.5% higher now. The dollar index dove from 84.372 highs to break back below 84.0 again.
12:20 EDTU.S. Fed to stick to "near zero" rate language
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11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were generally solid, but underperformed recent results
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11:30 EDTNY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes dated from November 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered
10:55 EDTU.S. equities ramped to highs
U.S. equities ramped to highs while shrugging off a wall of worry from the FOMC, Scottish referendum and Alibaba IPO, because it's Tuesday and perhaps corporations still have some record buy-backs to execute. Computer HFTs may also be leaning on buy-stops, helping lift the major indices back into the green. Yields have also backed up from lows, with the T-note yield bouncing from 2.55% lows to clear 2.58% again. Meanwhile, the NY Fed is about to inject $2.0-2.5 B in liquidity.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024. The buyback is supportive at the margine, but yields remain little changed to fractionally lower ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow. The Fed is universally expected to trim another $10 B from QE purchases, with there considerable uncertainty over possible changes in forward guidance.
10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased into 1.1003 lows
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are firming again
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09:40 EDTMarket extends recent losses with drop at open
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09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy bearish put demand
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09:11 EDTNovember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTOctober Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTAugust Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTSeptember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
09:11 EDTJuly Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:10 EDTCitigroup credit market analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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09:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 14 cents
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:55 EDTThe flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase
The flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. Overall, goods prices have climbed by 1.4% through the first eight months of 2014, while service prices have increased by a slightly larger 1.6%. On the old SOP basis, analysts saw a 0.3% headline PPI drop that followed a 0.1% rise in July and a big 0.7% increase in June. For September analysts expect a 0.1% PPI headline and core price gains thanks to ongoing restraint in energy prices, which also accompanied food price weakness to depress last Friday's August trade price figures alongside flat core price figures. Analysts expect 0.1% declines for CPI and PCE chain prices, with respective core price gains of 0.2% and 0.1%.
08:50 EDTU.S. Treasury net TIC flows preview:
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar is marginally higher
FX Action: The dollar is marginally higher in the aftermath of the in-line PPI data, taking EUR-USD down 10 points to just under 1.2945 and USD-JPY up 10 points to 107.15. Equity futures remain moderately under water, as yields moved fractionally lower. All is calm in FX Land ahead of tomorrow's FOMC, though trade should continue to be biased into the dollar.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower
Treasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower following the flat reading on headline PPI and modest uptick on core after the apparently delayed report was released early. The benchmark T-note yield continued to probe overnight lows near 2.56% as the Fed meeting kicks off, down from Asian highs near 2.62% and with the 2.50% psych support likely holding for now. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed a basis point or two to +203 bp from Monday's close. TIC inflows are due next.
08:40 EDTU.S. PPI was unchanged overall, while the core edged up 0.1% in August
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08:36 EDTFutures remain lower following producer prices report
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08:31 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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08:25 EDTU.S. PPI report may be delayed
U.S. PPI report may be delayed a bit due to technical issues, according to wire reports.
08:24 EDTThe Federal Reserve System Board of Governors holds a Closed Meeting
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:19 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
Open Internet Roundtable--Mobile Broadband considers the application of Open Internet rules to mobile broadband, focusing on consumers' use of mobile broadband and on reasonable network management practices in the mobile context is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on September 16 at 2:45 pm. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index declined 2.6%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was largely range bound overnight, with EUR-USD near 1.2950, and USD-JPY flirting with the 107 mark. The commodity bloc reversed some of its recent losses, with both the AUD and CAD perking up modestly. The U.S. calendar will reveal August PPI data at 8:30 EDT, followed by July TIC flow data at 9:00 EDT. Equity futures indicate a slightly lower Wall Street open, while Treasury yields are a bit softer.
07:55 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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07:46 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.56%. Global bonds are mostly higher, in part on risk off trades as equities declined ahead of the FOMC decision and the Scottish vote. Asian buying in bonds was particularly noted. Data overnight was somewhat supportive too with the German ZEW declining, although less than feared, while China's FDI dropped to a four-year low. U.K. CPI slowed to 1.5% y/y, in line with expectations. Today's U.S. calendar includes August PPI, the July TIC data, and weekly chain store sales. The NY Fed will buy $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024.
07:42 EDTCanaccord to hold a conference
Digital Finance & Money Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:37 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
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07:28 EDTFutures lower as Fed gets ready to meet
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07:24 EDTBernstein to hold a conference
11th Annual Pan European Strategic Decisions Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar is been net steady
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 16
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06:08 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 29.42, 50-day moving average is 29.04
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05:59 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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05:50 EDTGreece sold EUR 1 B of 13 week Treasury Bills
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03:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s
FX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s after recovering fro a Tokyo-session dip to 106.92. BoJ's Kuroda said that "analysts are only half way there" with regard to achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, though this didn't impact the yen much being very much boilerplate. The pair left a 107.32 high in early London trade with the dollar holding firm into tomorrow's Fed announcement, but the market looks to lack the impetus for a test of Friday's six-year peak at 107.39. Offers are reported around 107.40-50. Recent data out of Japan have maintained the view that the BoJ is heading for further monetary stimulus, which contrasts the Fed's course, albeit gradual, towards tightening. Analysts remain bullish on the back of yield differentials, though are wary of risk aversion in global markets, which, if sustained, could see the Japanese currency snap higher on position squaring in yen-funded carry positions. Support in USD-JPY is marked at 106.50 and 105.94-106.000.
02:31 EDTSeptember Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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02:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered from a moderate dip in Asia
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