Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days Check below for free stories on NOSYMBOL the last two weeks. Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing. << 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >> May 24, 2013 20:28 EDT April Consumer Credit to be released at 15:00 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Consumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45 May Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 50.0 18:59 EDT Personal Income and Outlays Core PCE price index to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Personal Income and Outlays PCE Price Index -- to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Real GDP to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT GDP price index to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30 April Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.0% for the month 16:35 EDT May Employment Situation to be released at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 14:03 EDT Averages drift ahead of holiday weekend Each of the major equity indices continues to drift in negative territory, as they've done for most of the final trading day ahead of the holiday weekend. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by more than 2:1 and down volume is just slightly ahead of up volume. Crude oil prices are roughly unchanged and gold is about 0.3%. The Dow is down 6 points, the Nasdaq is down 7 points, and the S&P is down 4 points. 13:45 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: It was a rather dull shortened session to finish out a volatile week on Friday ahead of the long weekend. Fresh volatility in Japan overnight did not spill over to the U.S., though de-risking in Europe took place on peripheral bond yields even after core data in German was relatively firm. Durable goods orders stateside rebounded more than expected, but this didn't alter the balance much between stocks and bonds either, nor did a diverted Pakistani plane to UK's Stansted airport after an incident proved criminal and not terror-related, though the FX market squirmed a bit. Stocks cautiously leaned into negative territory for much of the session, while Treasury yields lingered laterally. 13:05 EDT Action Economics Weekly Survey results: Action Economics Weekly Survey results: there were some big market moves this week, and a lot was predicated on Fed policy expectations. In this environment, Fed outlooks will remain a major source of market volatility. And there are many key reports just on the horizon that will help policymakers judge the course of employment and the economy as a whole. Survey medians, however, don't suggest the FOMC's criterion of "substantial" improvement in the labor market are being fully met yet. Additionally, FOMC Minutes indicated many participants want more confidence in the outlook or need to see diminished downside risks before they would think that slowing the pace of asset purchases is appropriate. Again, if data come in as expected, it's doubtful that there will be much improvement in policymaker confidence on the economy, and hence no change in the policy stance for the foreseeable future. 12:30 EDT Fed Policy Outlook: risks of a QE step down this quarter are very small Subscribe for More Information 12:00 EDT Fedspeak is limited to doves next week Subscribe for More Information 11:25 EDT Treasury Option Action: mostly put spread exits Treasury Option Action: mostly put spread exits were the rule in today's shortened session and limited upside positioning on 5s and 10s, according to sources. Among these were a sale of 5k in Jul 130+ puts and a seller of 20k in Jul 127+/129 put spreads (seen as an exit). On the 5-year was a bullish buyer of 15k in Jul 123/123.25/123.5/123.75 call condors. Jun 10s are now 6.5-ticks firmer near 131-15, extending gains, compared to a 131-195 to 131-05 session range. 10:30 EDT Treasury Supply: Treasury auctions $99 B in coupons in the shortened week Treasury Supply: Treasury auctions $99 B in coupons in the shortened week. On tap are a $35 B 2-year offering (Tuesday), $35 B in 5-year notes (Wednesday) and $29 B in 7-year notes (Thursday). When issued yields are all lower heading into the long weekend. The 2-year cheapened slightly to 0.26%. The 5-year is 2 bps richer at 0.90%, with the 7-year down 3 bps at 1.38%. All rates are well above auction stops from last month, however, thanks to the big selloff of late. And though that cheapening is supportive, the bond market is on the defensive amid worries the Fed could start stepping down on QE sooner rather than later. There are also ongoing concerns over the weakening in Japan's bond market and possible spillover to Treasuries and indeed global sovereigns. Plus, recent auctions haven't garnered great results, not even the 2-year which should be supported by the likelihood rates will remain near zero into next year, if not later. However, growth is not taking off and there are still headwinds here and abroad that should sustain demand. It's also month-end and the Barclays' Treasury index is estimated to extend out 0.10 years, versus an average of about 0.06 years, which should support modestly. Analysts expect fairly average results. 10:05 EDT Euro$ interest rate options: bearish call selling Euro$ interest rate options: bearish call selling has been reported, with the "sale of 3k in Gold Jun 80/82 1x2s." This is largely in line with the weaker profile on the underlying short-dated rate contracts, as the Jun 2013 is flat near 99.73, while the deferreds are 0.5-1.0 ticks lower further out the curve. In terms of Libor, the 3-month dollar Libor rate was unchanged at 0.27275%, while the dollar Libor/OIS spread was also stuck at +15 basis points. 09:48 EDT Market begins session lower Subscribe for More Information 09:33 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 52c to 14.59 09:05 EDT Treasury Option Action: unwinding of bearish put spreads Treasury Option Action: unwinding of bearish put spreads appears to be the main opening salvo in Treasury options. This included the "sale of 10k in Jul 127.5/129 put spreads, followed by another likely 10k in sales." Sources are characterizing this as a quick liquidation of a recent bearish bet. Jun 10s are a tick higher near 131-095 despite the firmer round of durables data, compared to a 131-16 to 131-05 range. 08:50 EDT U.S. equities are above overnight lows Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields backed up from lows Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT FX Action: The dollar firmed up a bit Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 3.3% in April Subscribe for More Information 08:36 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX of 14.07 at low end of six-year range 08:33 EDT Futures improve ahead of open Stock futures improved ahead of the open following the release of the durable goods orders report. The data showed that durable goods orders increased 3.3% overall versus the expected increase of 1.5%. Excluding transportation items, orders rose 1.3% versus an expected increase of 0.5%. 08:31 EDT Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Durable Goods Orders data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:15 EDT U.S. Durable Goods Preview Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.09% Subscribe for More Information 07:50 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have edged slightly higher Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT N.Y.FX Outlook Subscribe for More Information 07:17 EDT Trading expected to be slow ahead of holiday weekend U.S. equity futures are trading slightly lower in early trading. The market began yesterday’s session deep in negative territory but closed just slightly in the red. Investors will be watching the durable goods orders report which is due out at 8:30 am. Analysts are expecting the data to show an increase of 1.5%. The day’s activity is expected to be slow ahead of the long holiday weekend. 07:10 EDT Fed sends mixed signals, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 06:55 EDT China may look to liberalize economy further, NY Times reports Subscribe for More Information 06:48 EDT Economist says German economic growth to accelerate in Q2, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:30 EDT Nymex crude traded close to $94 bbl Subscribe for More Information 06:13 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 24 Subscribe for More Information 06:10 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 14.07, 10-day moving average is 13.05. CBOE Volatility Index VIX 50-day moving average is 13.45. 06:10 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY remained stable in Europe Subscribe for More Information 06:07 EDT Gold traders turning bullish, Bloomberg reports Gold traders are the most bullish in a month after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled record stimulus will continue until the economy improves, reports Bloomberg. A dozen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to increase next week, with nine bearish and eight neutral, the highest proportion of bulls since April 26. Reference Link 06:06 EDT June front month equity options expire, June 21, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 06:06 EDT WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF volatility up on wide price movement Subscribe for More Information 05:45 EDT U.S., China agree on auditor access, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 02:01 EDT Week of 6/5 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30 Subscribe for More Information 02:01 EDT Week of 5/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30 02:01 EDT May Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00 Subscribe for More Information 01:15 EDT Japan's Nikkei set the tone for the second session Subscribe for More Information May 23, 2013 16:37 EDT Fed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported Subscribe for More Information 16:37 EDT Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported Week of 5/22 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $44.4B 16:32 EDT Switzerland's Aaa rating affirmed by Moody's, outlook stable Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Aaa government bond rating of Switzerland. The outlook remains stable. The key drivers for the rating and outlook affirmation are: the government's very high financial strength, a broad consensus on fiscal discipline and a favorable public debt burden; Switzerland's very high economic strength, as reflected in its open, highly diversified economy and high average incomes, both of which are expected to be maintained over the long term; the country's proven resilience, as is demonstrated by Switzerland's ability to weather the global financial crisis and the euro area crisis. Reference Link 16:31 EDT Week of 5/31 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30 16:31 EDT Quarterly Services Survey to be released at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 15:25 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: Despite extreme moves on global stocks on Thursday, Treasuries sustained only a shallow bid and then resumed their defensive position as Wall Street dusted itself off from early lows. With JEC testimony and Chinese PMI still ringing in their ears, the markets found some fresh equilibrium in the U.S. after firmer home sales and prices offset a dip in Markit flash PMI, while jobless claims sank back down to lows again. Fedspeak was mostly dovish from SF Fed's Williams, while St. Louis Fed hawk Bullard continued to sound more dovish in an early speech from London. WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath seemed to underscore the Fed's symmetric stance on policy, rather than a tapering bias per se, though the damage done by Bernanke's "next few meetings" remark Weds remained in focus. 14:36 EDT Bank of Spain sees banks needing added EUR10B in provisions, FT says Subscribe for More Information 14:05 EDT Averages lower, but off worst levels The major equity indices remain in negative ground, but well off their early session lows. The declines in equity markets abroad, particularly the steep 7.3% drop in the Nikkei, carried over to U.S. markets at the outset, but the averages climbed as several domestic data points came in better than expected. During the afternoon, crude oil was down over 1%, gold was up almost 2%, and the Yen had strengthened against the dollar to below the Y102 level. The Dow is down 8 points, the S&P is down 6 points and the Nasdaq is down 7 points. 13:50 EDT Treasury Action: yields continue to consolidate below highs Subscribe for More Information 13:25 EDT FX Action: The dollar moved another leg lower earlier Subscribe for More Information 13:25 EDT U.S. Durable Goods Preview U.S. Durable Goods Preview: April durable goods figures will be released on Friday and analysts expect to see orders grow by 2.5% (median 1.7%) following the big 5.8% decline in March. Shipments should decline by 0.5% with inventories growing by 0.4%. Data in line with these forecasts would have the I/S ratio increasing to 1.67 from 1.65. 13:10 EDT Treasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening was on the soft side Treasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening was on the soft side. The security stopped at -0.255% versus -0.243% at the bid deadline and the -0.602% for the March reopening. There were $32.7 B in bids for a weak 2.52 cover, compared to 2.74 at the March reopening, and 2.71 for the January new issue. Indirect bidders took 56.8% versus 51.3% in March and 53.3% in January. 13:08 EDT Three executives at SAC Capital receive subpoenas, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 13:02 EDT Week of 6/1 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30 13:02 EDT May Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30 Subscribe for More Information 12:40 EDT Treasury $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening: Treasury $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening: the offering has pretty much been lost in the Fed QE shuffle and given it's already limited audience. The subdued inflation outlook is the main problem for the auction, according to sources, which limited demand at last month's 5-year TIPS. However, the issue has been cheapening and that could bring in some buyers looking for some cheap insurance. The wi 10-year trades at -0.255% versus a -0.602% award rate at the March reopening and -0.630% at the January new issue. The breakeven trades around 224 bp versus 243 bps in mid March. The March reopening saw a 2.74 bid cover, up fractionally from the 2.71 in January. 12:30 EDT Hilsenrath on CNBC says the Fed is having a hard time delivering its message to the markets Hilsenrath on CNBC says the Fed is having a hard time delivering its message to the markets, both in terms of the "when" and "how." He added that using the word "taper" is incorrect and connotes steady, progressive action, which is not what Bernanke is saying. The Fed Chairman said yesterday the Fed will move in "steps," as Hilsenrath wrote a couple of weeks ago (Fed mapping an exit), which won't necessarily be the "clear and steady path the markets expect." According to Hilsenrath, often a Fed mouthpiece, the Fed will reduce buybacks, the watch the effect, and either continue or not. That's the "how" and it should give policymakers more flexibility and hopefully keep markets from over-reacting. Hilsenrath also echoed what analysts've been saying that the "when" -- the start of QE step down DEPENDS on the data, such that the Fed. If data provide evidence of substantial and sustained improvement, the FOMC could announce a step down over the next few meetings, or it might not. 12:15 EDT Treasury Option Action: bullish positioning has been spotted Treasury Option Action: bullish positioning has been spotted on the margin, though the price action on Treasuries and futures remains defensive as stocks rebound. There was a 1k purchase of Aug 124 calls and more bids vs 10-year futures, along with a 5k purchase of Jul 152 calls on bond futures. Jun 10s are 2-ticks lower now near 131-055, though above lows of 130-28. 12:02 EDT SEC charges ISS in breach of client's confidential voting information Subscribe for More Information 11:45 EDT U.S. VIX equity volatility is off highs Subscribe for More Information 11:40 EDT Today's U.S. reports Subscribe for More Information 11:15 EDT NY Fed bought $3.65 B in intermediate notes Subscribe for More Information 11:15 EDT Treasury announced a $99 B 3-pronged offering for next week Subscribe for More Information 11:05 EDT SF Fed's Williams wants to see more signs of improvement before asset purchases are slowed Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT EIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending May 17 Gas inventories 89 Bcf build vs. consensus of 92 Bcf build. 10:30 EDT FX Action: The dollar moved ever so slightly higher Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT The 2.3% U.S. new home sales climb Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing between $3.0 B and $3.75 B in notes NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing between $3.0 B and $3.75 B in notes ranging from February 28, 2019 through May 15, 2020. The buyback is supportive of the rebound in Treasuries, though yields have edged off their lows as stocks recover. 10:15 EDT Treasury Action: yields are searching for fresh equilibrium Treasury Action: yields are searching for fresh equilibrium after the better than expected rise in Apr new home sales followed on the heels of the jobless claim drop earlier. Home sales in Mar were also revised sharply higher as well and stocks are consolidating above opening lows following their early downdraft. The T-note yield rebounded above 2.01% again after sliding under 2.0% after stalling just ahead of 2.07% Mar highs. 10:10 EDT Another Gross Tweet from PIMCO: Another Gross Tweet from PIMCO: "Why can banks earn 25 bps with overnight repo while all others earn nothing? 3 billion dollar subside from #Fed!" 10:10 EDT U.S. new home sales climbed 2.3% to 454k in April Subscribe for More Information 10:02 EDT New Home Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 10:00 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD again found buyers into 1.0325 FX Action: USD-CAD again found buyers into 1.0325, where standing bids have been noted. The pairing seems content to play the 1.0325-60 range for now, though weaker oil prices, and equities could shift the bias to the upside near term. 10:00 EDT Euro$ interest rate options: unwinding of bearish put positioning Subscribe for More Information 09:56 EDT Market opens sharply lower Stock futures suggested a sharply lower open and the broader market opened accordingly. The weakness is being attributed to poor economic data out of China and follow through on comments yesterday from Fed Chairman Bernanke about the timing of an exit from its quantitative easing program. The averages are currently in a holding pattern ahead of some more housing data, due out shortly. The Dow is down 111 points, the Nasdaq is down 34 points and the S&P is down 17 points. 09:50 EDT Treasury Action: buying in size in the belly helped Treasuries extend gains earlier Subscribe for More Information 09:50 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY struggled to hold on to higher levels Subscribe for More Information 09:40 EDT U.S. New Homes Sales Preview U.S. New Homes Sales Preview: April new home sales are expcted to increase 3.1% to a 430k (median 426k) pace for the month following the 417k pace set in March. The existing home sales report was slightly weaker than expected to 4.970 M for April versus a 4.990 M median but it appears that housing indicators are continuing their pace of gradual improvement. 09:34 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 1.12 to 14.92 Subscribe for More Information 09:20 EDT Treasury Option Action: some position rolling Subscribe for More Information 09:10 EDT U.S. FHFA home price index jumped 1.3% to 199.1 in March U.S. FHFA home price index jumped 1.3% to 199.1 in March from a revised 196.5 in February was 196.3). The index has posted monthly gains since February 2012. Compared to last March, the index is up 7.2% y/y. All 9 regions surveyed posted gains on the month. Q1 home prices were up 1.9% q/q, a seventh consecutive quarterly gain, reflecting the continued improvement in the housing sector. 09:05 EDT U.S. equities extended their post-JEC slide Subscribe for More Information 09:05 EDT U.S. Markit PMI dipped 0.2 points to 51.9 in the flash report for May preliminary Subscribe for More Information 09:02 EDT FHFA House Price Index Y/Y change data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:02 EDT FHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:50 EDT FX Action: The dollar ticked a bit higher Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT The 23k U.S. initial claims drop to 340k Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields extended their rebound Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. initial jobless claims fell 23k to 340k in the week ended May 18 U.S. initial jobless claims fell 23k to 340k in the week ended May 18 from 363k the week before (revised up from 360k). The 4-week moving average dipped to 339.5k from 340k (revised from 339.25k). Not seasonally adjusted claims fell 19.8k to 301.1k from 320.8k previously (revised from 318.2k). Continuing claims plunged 112k to 2,912k in the week ended May 11 from a revised 3,024k (was 3,009k). There was nothing unusual in the data, according to the BLS. The slightly better than expected claims data could add to market concerns over the start of QE tapering sooner rather than later, but it's still not obvious action will be announced as early as June. 08:33 EDT Futures remain lower following jobless claims Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Jobless Claims data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Jobless Claims data reported Week of 5/18 Jobless Claims at 340K vs. consensus of 345K 08:20 EDT U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD touched 103.93 trend highs Subscribe for More Information 08:05 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.09% Fed funds opened at 0.09% after a 0.13% close last night. The rate ranged from 0.01% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.08% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were unchanged to lower today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dropped further to 0.13890% from 0.14250% yesterday. The 1-week rate slid to 0.16071% versus 0.16271%. The 3-month rate fell to 0.27275% from 0.27375%. And the 12-month rate was unchanged at 0.68589%. 08:00 EDT Treasury Market Outlook Subscribe for More Information 07:45 EDT N.Y. FX Outlook Subscribe for More Information 07:45 EDT St. Louis Fed's Bullard largely reiterated dovish remarks Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT Futures suggest sharply lower open Subscribe for More Information 07:26 EDT JPMorgan to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 06:59 EDT Reid looking to limit filibusters, Politico says Subscribe for More Information 06:58 EDT CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust volatility flat as yen near 56-month low CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust overall option implied volatility of 12 is near its 26-week average of 11 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement. 06:48 EDT Spanish borrowing costs rise, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:44 EDT Euro zone PMI rose this month, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:38 EDT Asian stocks decline after Chinese data, Japanese market plunge, NY Times says Stocks fell across Asia after a Chinese purchasing managers' index came in below 50 and the Japanese stock market suddenly plunged 7.3%, according to The New York Times. The sell-offs in Asian stocks exchanges were "broad-based," the newspaper added. Reference Link 06:05 EDT Commodities were mostly lower in Europe Commodities were mostly lower in Europe. China manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a wide margin overnight, which forced Nymex crude into $92.70 bbl, although it settled just ahead of $93 bbl as the dollar pulled back a bit after Wednesday's sharp rally. Copper prices lost 2% in line with weakness across other metal prices, though silver recovered to trade around flat around $22.48. It also gained positive momentum from gold, which benefited from its status as a safe haven asset, leaving it around 1.30% higher over $1386 ahead of the N.Y open. 06:00 EDT June front month equity options expire, June 21, 2013 05:59 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 13.82, 10-day moving average is 12.95 Subscribe for More Information 05:57 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 23 Subscribe for More Information 04:35 EDT Japan Economy Minister blamed stock fall on China Japan Economy Minister blamed stock fall on China. Amari, who has a track record for careless comments, suggested that today's Japanese market drop was due to weak China data. He said he is not worried about today's stock market moves but is carefully watching movements. He did not think today's move reflects a change in market sentiment towards economic policy, adding that the government will continue conduct 'down to earth' policies, which included a growth strategy and fiscal consolidation. He said the stock market had risen quicker than it anticipated, adding that equities and exchange rates are linked and such a big decline in stocks can lead to yen gains. 04:10 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY steadied after sharp drop Subscribe for More Information 02:25 EDT Japan stock markets collapsed Subscribe for More Information 01:15 EDT Asian stocks slumped Asian stocks slumped following the fallout from Bernanke's JEC testimony and the Q&A. His testimony was relatively benign and he maintained his dovish credentials, but in the Q&A, when pushed, he was forced to admit the potential for QE tapering "in the next few meetings", depending on data. It led to sharp price swings across all asset classes and was a negative lead for Asia at the open. Adding to the correction was a very poor HSBC flash China manufacturing PMI, which came in at 49.6 in May from 50.4 in April. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex Japan is just over 1.5% lower on writing, while the Nikkei plunged more than 2% as USD-JPY reversed from 103.60 to under 102.50. Both the ASX and Hang Seng were also around 1.6-1.7% lower by the Asian afternoon, but the SSEC was relatively stable, up 0.1%. May 22, 2013 21:46 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00 Subscribe for More Information 15:13 EDT Iceland delays consideration of EU entry, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 15:10 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: Quite a wild ride on on the bond market mule Weds, after Fed Chairman Bernanke's JEC testimony was benign, but his Q&A referenced a potential QE taper "in the next few meetings" if the data cooperated. Though that was not really new, it provided cover for a fresh sell-off in Treasuries which were crowded by another heavy dose of investment grade issuance as well. The FOMC minutes threw fuel on the fire with some participants looking for a taper starting as early as June, while others were still concerned about low inflation. Stocks initially rallied, then sold off with the jump in the T-note yield to Mar highs. Existing home sales rose moderately. 15:07 EDT IMF likely to publish paper on sovereign bond restructuring shortly, FT says Subscribe for More Information 15:00 EDT U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: Subscribe for More Information 14:44 EDT Week of 5/31 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30 Subscribe for More Information 14:39 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 97c to 14.34 14:35 EDT WSJ's Hilsenrath suggests FOMC does not appear to be near a consensus on when to start reducing asset purchases WSJ's Hilsenrath suggests FOMC does not appear to be near a consensus on when to start reducing asset purchases in his blog piece, Parsing the FOMC Minutes. He cited the statement that "a number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as earlly as June...however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary." That was our conclusion too, noting both that statement and the tone in Chairman Bernanke's JEC testimony earlier. Today's Fed events also support the notion that QE is still benefiting the economy. Plus, the recent mix of data are keeping policymakers uncertain over the path of growth, and hence policy. 14:35 EDT U.S. New Homes Sales Preview Subscribe for More Information 14:29 EDT Some Fed members say willing to cut asset purchases by June Subscribe for More Information 14:28 EDT April Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 14:28 EDT May ISM Non-Mfg Index to be released at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 14:28 EDT Productivity and Costs to be released at 08:30 14:28 EDT May ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15 Subscribe for More Information 14:25 EDT Dallas Fed hawk Fisher: printing money does no good Subscribe for More Information 14:20 EDT Treasury Action: yields are back off highs as stocks extend their declines Subscribe for More Information 14:15 EDT FOMC Minutes: a number of participants expressed a willingness to adjust purchases downward as early as June FOMC Minutes: a number of participants expressed a willingness to adjust purchases downward as early as June if the economic data showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth. But, the Minutes also revealed disagrement on the evidence needed. Also, "many" wanted to see more progress on the labor market before slowing QE. Additionally, recent data opened up some concerns that the recovery was stalling. So, the minutes continue to reflect debate over QE. June sticks out, but analysts don't believe the Committee will be ready to pull the trigger next month. 14:06 EDT 'Most' Fed members looking for continued progress before easing Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting state, "Participants also touched on the conditions under which it might be appropriate to change the pace of asset purchases. Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress since the program was started in September, but many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate." 14:05 EDT Treasury Option Action: heavy put positioning in 5-year area Subscribe for More Information 13:57 EDT Averages erase gains, turn mixed for session Stocks have turned mixed after a sharp move higher to start the day’s trading. The Dow made triple digit gains following dovish comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but each of the major indices have erased their early gains, trading well off their best levels. Advancing stocks are even with declining stocks and up volume is also about even with down volume. Crude oil prices are lower by more than 1.5% and gold is up 0.7%. The Dow is up 8 points, the S&P is down 1 point, and the Nasdaq is down 13 points. 13:45 EDT U.S. equities reversed lower U.S. equities reversed lower as taper talk finally took its toll on the optimistic assets, though it's all a bit premature either way. In the Dow the biggest losers are mostly tech thanks to a 1% Cisco drop, UnitedHealth 0.5% decline and Microsoft 0.4% dip. On the upside, JPM at +2.8%, Home Depot at +2.7% and Pfizer +2.6% are all the leading gainers. NASDAQ is off 0.15%, while the Dow is 0.25% higher and S&P is hanging on to a 0.35% gain. Dallas Fed hawk Fisher and the FOMC minutes are due next. 13:35 EDT FOMC Minutes preview: FOMC minutes will hopefully shed further light on the QE debate FOMC Minutes preview: FOMC minutes will hopefully shed further light on the QE debate, such as the inclusion of the symmetric stance on asset purchases with in the May 1 policy statement. Analysts suspect it was done to appease the centrist dovish members given the numerous hawkish comments about the costs of QE that have weighed on Treasuries in recent months. Analysts're also going to be interested in ongoing guidence on the economy and inflation. Bernanke's comments were a little more downbeat on both. Meanwhile, in the March minutes it was seen that 1 member wanted to slow purchases immediately; 2 members wanted to continue QE through year end. A "few" thought tapering could begin around mid-year and end later this year, while "sevearl others" thought if the outlook labor market conditions improved as expected, could start trimming purchases later in the year and stop them at year end. Of course analysts'll count up to see if these numbers have changed. But, there's still a big IF on the FOMC's policy course, and that of course is the data. 13:30 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD took out prior 2013 highs of 1.0343 Subscribe for More Information 13:00 EDT Goldman Sachs reiterated a Dec FOMC taper launch Subscribe for More Information 12:40 EDT Treasury Action: the T-note yield has cleared 2.0% again Subscribe for More Information 12:00 EDT FX Action: The dollar has largely stabilized Subscribe for More Information 11:42 EDT September S&P Case-Shiller HPI to be released at 09:00 Subscribe for More Information 11:42 EDT Week of 5/31 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00 11:40 EDT PIMCO's Gross Tweeted on Bernanke: Subscribe for More Information 11:20 EDT Bernanke noted various indicators reflecting improvement in the financial markets Bernanke noted various indicators reflecting improvement in the financial markets as the effects of the financial crisis have been mitigated. Consumers are deleveraging, consumer debt burdens are going down, banks are much healthier as seen in stress tests, while credit availabity is improving. On inflation, he said the Fed is looking at market data, commodity prices, and various econometric models. He doesn't see much inflation currently, and if anything it's a little on the low side. Bernanke wouldn't directly answer whether the Fed was enabling Congress delay on fiscal policy actions. 11:10 EDT NY Fed bought $1.25 B in bonds Subscribe for More Information 11:05 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 10c to 13.47 Subscribe for More Information 11:05 EDT More Bernanke: he argued for a more balanced monetary-fiscal fix More Bernanke: he argued for a more balanced monetary-fiscal fix with respect to the labor market. Slowing the pace of tightening, along with a long term fiscal deal, would make the exit easier. Monetary policy "is not omnipotent" said the Fed chief. Bernanke said it's hard to say how much of unemployment is structural and how much is cyclical, and noted the FOMC estimates about 5.2% to 6% is structural, thus leaving about 2% to be addressed by policy. 10:55 EDT Bernanke believes Fed can exit without selling any MBS Subscribe for More Information 10:50 EDT Bernanke says supportive of Bank of Japan policies Subscribe for More Information 10:50 EDT Treasury Action: yields have jumped, despite a dovish JEC text from Bernanke Treasury Action: yields have jumped, despite a dovish JEC text from Bernanke, with equities lower and the dollar higher as well. Seemingly the catalyst was a remark from the Fed Chairman in Q&A who said asset purchases could start to be unwound over next few meetings. BUT, he was goaded into that by the questioning on the timing of an exit, which he would not be pinned down. That statement on unwinding again came with the caveat that economic conditions have to improve and inflation needs to pick up. Bernanke's overall tone remains very dovish. 10:47 EDT Bernanke says exit possible without sale of MBS, but no decision made yet Subscribe for More Information 10:40 EDT Bernanke Q&A: Bernanke Q&A: asked if the economy accelerated, when would the Fed exit, Bernanke said they would first have to start to wind down asset purchases. Then they would alter guidence on interest rates, and complement those with other tools. The Fed may or may not sell assets. Bernanke said currently it doens't appear asset sales will be necessary; the Fed can just let its holdings roll off. Fed could take a step down in its purchases over the next few meetings if the policymakers were convinced that the outlook for the labor market was on a sustained trajectory, and if there were no signs of falling prices. The Chairman continued to say the timing of a withdrawal is dependent on the data, and wouldn't be pinned down to a specific date. He also said the market can see the data as well as the Fed, suggesting the timing need not be announced. 10:33 EDT Bernanke says could decide to cut pace of purchases in 'next few meetings' Says QE purchase strategy depends on economic data. Says Fed will respond "in steps" to data. 10:30 EDT Crude Inventories for the week of May 17 Crude oil inventories 338K draw vs. consensus of 1.0M draw. Gasoline inventories 3.02M build vs. consensus of 300K draw. Distillates 1.05M draw vs. consensus of 1.0M build. 10:29 EDT Bernanke says winding down QE will be first part of exit Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT FX Action: The dollar added to previous losses Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT The 0.6% April U.S. existing home sales rise The 0.6% April U.S. existing home sales rise to a 4.970 M recent-high pace left a rate that slightly exceeded the prior recent-high 4.960 M pace in November, following tiny recent wiggles that left rates of 4.940 (was 4.920) M in March and 4.950 M in February. Analysts have a restrained 14% existing home sales rise since September of 2011, versus larger comparable gains of 22% for pending home sales and 36% for new home sales, as existing home sales continue to post only a reluctant cyclical climb despite strength in other housing measures. In contrast, the median price continues to overperform other price measures thanks to a shift in the mix of sales to higher priced homes. Analysts still expect GDP growth of an unrevised 2.5% in Q1 and 2.0% in Q2, with an unrevised 12.6% Q1 growth rate for real residential construction that is followed by a 28% pace in Q2. For the remaining April reports, analysts expect a 3.1% rise in new home sales to a 430k rate, and a 0.9% construction spending rise despite a 0.4% April drop in construction hours-worked. 10:20 EDT Treasury Action: yields continued to stretch lower Subscribe for More Information 10:15 EDT U.S. existing home sales rose 0.6% to 4.970 M in April Subscribe for More Information 10:12 EDT Bernanke says monetary stimulus must continue Subscribe for More Information 10:10 EDT Fed Chairman Bernanke warned against premature tightening of policy Fed Chairman Bernanke warned against premature tightening of policy as it would "carry substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further." So no tapering anytime soon. He continues to say QE is providing "significant benefits" and has helped offset "incipient deflationary pressures." The Chairman also reiterated the FOMC statement that fiscal policy has become "significantly more restrictive." The Fed is going to keep on trucking. 10:09 EDT Market fueled higher by Bernanke prepared remarks ahead of testimony Subscribe for More Information 10:02 EDT Bernanke says 'premature tightening' could carry 'substantial risk' Subscribe for More Information 10:02 EDT Existing Home Sales data reported April Existing Home Sales up 9.7% for the year 10:02 EDT Existing Home Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 10:01 EDT Existing Home Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:36 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently down 11c to 13.26 09:35 EDT U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview Subscribe for More Information 09:20 EDT Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning ahead of Bernanke Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning ahead of Bernanke has been reported, including a bearish "purchase of 2k in Aug 126/128/130 put butterflies and 3k in Jul 129 puts." On the bullish side of the ledger was a "purchase of 5k in Jul 132 calls." Jun 10-year futures are 3-ticks firmer near 132-00, compared to a 132-045 to 131-285 range so far. 09:15 EDT Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before the JEC at 10:00 ET Subscribe for More Information 09:00 EDT U.S. equities have firmed up Subscribe for More Information 08:37 EDT Futures remain quiet ahead of market open Stock futures continue to trade quietly ahead of the opening of the broader market. Investors will be anxiously awaiting the release of the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting, and they will be looking for clues about any changes in fiscal policy. Chicago Fed Governor Charles Evans may have hinted at some changes in Fed policy earlier in the week when he said the central bank was discussing how and when to possibly end its latest round of quantitative easing. His statements have put investors on watch for any possible change in monetary strategy at the Fed. 08:30 EDT Canadian Retail Sales Preview. Subscribe for More Information 08:20 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.09% Subscribe for More Information 08:05 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD firmed up in overnight trade Subscribe for More Information 07:55 EDT House Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing Subscribe for More Information 07:54 EDT The Cato Institute holds a discussion Author Jonathan Macey, along with the former Chairman of the SEC, Harvey Pitt, discuss Macey's new book, "The Death of Corporate Reputation: How Integrity Has Been Destroyed on Wall Street" at The Cato Institute's Washington, D.C. offices on May 22 at 4:30 pm. Webcast Link 07:51 EDT Joint Economic Committee to hold a hearing Subscribe for More Information 07:50 EDT Fedspeak reaches a potentially important intersection Fedspeak reaches a potentially important intersection with today's Bernanke testimony before the JEC of Congress at 10 ET, followed by a presentation by Dallas Fed hawk on "Federal Reserve Operations and an Update on Texas and U.S. Economy" at 13 ET, along with the FOMC minutes of the Apr 30-May 1 meeting at 14 ET. Keep track of all the developments on our Fedspeak page. 07:41 EDT BofA/Merrill to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:40 EDT U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 9.8% U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 9.8% in data released earlier, in addition to a 3.0% decline in the purchase index and an 11.7% plunge in the refinance index for the week ended May-17. The 11-basis point jump in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 2-month highs of 3.78% clearly had a major impact on refi activity, spilling over to the market index more broadly, while mortgages for home purchases also declined. The MBA noted that this was the largest single drop by the refi index of the year. Last week's economic data had continued its downtrend for the bulk of the week until Friday's consumer sentiment and leading indicators surprised on the upside, while the bond market had started to buy into the Fed tapering view via rumors, the hawks and the press just ahead of today's FOMC minutes and Bernanke JEC testimony. For more details on the housing recovery, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports. 07:30 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped modestly lower in Asian trading Subscribe for More Information 07:29 EDT Fed's Dudley: FOMC hasn't yet agreed on tapering strategy, Bloomberg says Subscribe for More Information 07:21 EDT Futures near fair value Stock futures are once again near fair value ahead of today's trading. Investors will be watching the existing home sales report due out at 10:00 am ET, as well as the Department of Energy's weekly inventory data. In the afternoon investors will examine the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting and look for indications of any changes in Fed policy. 07:20 EDT N.Y. FX Outlook Subscribe for More Information 07:16 EDT Senate panel approves immigration reform bill with amendment, NY Times says Subscribe for More Information 07:09 EDT Dollar idles before Bernanke testimony, Reuters reports The dollar languished well below last week's 4 1/2-year high against the yen today, ahead of testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke after two regional Fed presidents hinted that the central bank will continue its bond-buying scheme, reports Reuters.Reference Link 07:08 EDT Issuance of single-borrower deals is growing, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Index data reported Week of 5/17 MBA Purchase Applications Index down -3.0% for the week 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 06:30 EDT Commodities were mostly higher Subscribe for More Information 05:55 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 22 Globex S&P futures are recently up .80 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.60%, DAX down 0.41%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $95.48, NYMEX Natural Gas up 0.76%, gold at $1383 and ounce copper up 1.06%. 05:55 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY headed back to 103.00 Subscribe for More Information 05:51 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 13.37, 10-day moving average is 12.84 Subscribe for More Information 05:49 EDT June front month equity options expire, June 21, 2013 Subscribe for More Information May 21, 2013 16:00 EDT Canadian Retail Sales Preview. Canadian Retail Sales Preview. Our projection is for a 0.3% rise in March retail sales (median +0.1%) when the data is released on Wednesday. It follows a 0.8% gain in February. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.2% (median +0.2%). And a 0.3% rise in sales volumes is expected, which would be consistent with a 0.1% gain in March GDP after the 0.3% gain in February GDP. 15:35 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: A round of surprisingly dovish Fedspeak from hawkish St. Louis Fed's Bullard dissauded some bond bears from their position and boosted equities on Tuesday, coming just a day ahead of Bernanke testimony. Moves weren't overly dramatic, but sufficient to inject a little 2-way risk at yield range highs. Fed's dovish Dudley chimed in too, anticipating the end of QE once labor market gains are sufficiently strong, but both were wary of negative fiscal drags and vigilent over low inflation. 14:50 EDT Treasury Action: yields are lower this afternoon Subscribe for More Information 14:10 EDT More Dudley: recent inflation data had gotten the Fed's attention Subscribe for More Information 14:06 EDT Averages near highs of day Subscribe for More Information 13:30 EDT Fed's Bullard doesn't see a good case for QE taper unless inflation rises Subscribe for More Information 13:15 EDT And now for dovish NY Fed's Dudley Subscribe for More Information 13:05 EDT Week of 6/1 Redbook to be released at 08:55 13:05 EDT April International Trade to be released at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 13:05 EDT Week of 6/1 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45 Subscribe for More Information 12:45 EDT More from Fed hawk Bullard: Fed could take rates to negative Subscribe for More Information 12:40 EDT Perhaps NY Fed dove Dudley will flip Perhaps NY Fed dove Dudley will flip to the hawkish camp after hawkish Bullard sounded very dovish earlier? Not very likely. But analysts'll get a chance to find out at 13 ET when Dudley addresses a "Lessons at the Zero Bound" discussion by the Japan Society in NY. Analysts believe that however these preliminary Fedspeakers shake out, Bernanke is still in no rush to exit QE prematurely, which could continue to buy the bond market a little reprieve tomorrow. Indeed, the T-note yield just marked session lows under 1.94% even though stocks are back near highs thanks to Bullard earlier. 11:50 EDT Treasury's $45 B 4-week bill auction was well received Subscribe for More Information 11:50 EDT Treasury Action: yields continued to drift lower Subscribe for More Information 11:25 EDT Treasury Option Action: upside positioning on bonds Subscribe for More Information 11:10 EDT NY Fed bought $3.31 B in notes NY Fed bought $3.31 B in notes dated from August 2020 through May 2023. The Street offered $13.1 B.The buyback, and resistance important levels, contained the updraft in yields. The 10-year yield has dipped from a 1.996% high to 1.97% currently. The 7-year note has slid to 1.328% from 1.35% earlier. 10:45 EDT U.S. equities have rotated lower now Subscribe for More Information 10:40 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD cleared last Friday's highs Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT PIMCO's Gross on Twitter again: Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying between $2.75 B and $3.5 B in notes Subscribe for More Information 10:15 EDT Treasury Option Action: more selling of volatility Subscribe for More Information 10:07 EDT Averages higher in early trading Subscribe for More Information 09:43 EDT House Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing Subscribe for More Information 09:35 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 1c to 13.03 Subscribe for More Information 09:15 EDT Treasury Option Action: more positioning in the belly Treasury Option Action: more positioning in the belly was reported by sources, who noted a package sale of 23k in Jun 124.25 calls and purchase of Sep 122.5 puts, along with sales of 124 calls in 5-year futures. This was thought to be part of a short-covering move on combo (squash), buying back the short calls and leaving the long puts in place, while rolling into the Sep combo, by buying puts and selling calls. Jun 5s are a tick firmer near 123-28 compared to their 123-30 to 123-277 range. 08:56 EDT Redbook Store Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:50 EDT U.S. equities are idling in neutral U.S. equities are idling in neutral ahead of the open without much domestically to guide investors while awaiting key Fed events on Weds other than a preliminary round of Fedspeak on low rate policy today. It wasn't a particularly inspiring session globally either, with Asian equities sideways as Japan's N-225 rose 0.13% and the Shanghai Comp gained 0.22%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.45% lower. Yesterday U.S. equities closed off highs after the Dow, S&P and Russell marked fresh historic highs and today the Dow is 10-points higher, S&P is unchanged and NASDAQ is 1-point higher ahead of the opening bell. In company specific news, JP Morgan shares were sideways heading into its shareholder vote on Chairman-CEO Dimon's dual role. Apple CEO Tim Cook will testify before Senate after a report that the company avoided taxes on $billions via is Irish subsidiary. Home Depot rallied over 3.5% after boosting its earnings and sales thanks to the housing recovery. Carnival Corp sank 7% after its earnings suffered from discounting of ticket sales after recent cruiseline strandings and accidents. Best Buy fell 2% after weaker sales and reinvestment. 08:30 EDT BofA/Merrill's automotive analyst holds an Analyst/Industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 08:25 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD longs eye further upside Subscribe for More Information 08:05 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.10% Subscribe for More Information 08:00 EDT U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded 0.2% in the week ended May 18 Subscribe for More Information 07:50 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to modestly higher Subscribe for More Information 07:46 EDT ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 07:46 EDT ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported Week of 5/18 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales up 0.2% for the week 07:45 EDT Credit Suisse to host a conference West Coast Financials Conference is being held in San Francisco on May 21-22. 07:35 EDT A pair of Fed speeches on low rate policy Subscribe for More Information 07:33 EDT Credit Suisse to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:32 EDT Goldman to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:31 EDT JPMorgan to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT RBC Capital to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT Lazard Capital to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:28 EDT JMP Securities to host a field trip Subscribe for More Information 07:26 EDT Futures quiet in early trading Subscribe for More Information 07:21 EDT National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:13 EDT Bond mutual funds continue to attract investors, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 07:12 EDT Mutual funds take aim at directors pay, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 06:58 EDT Tornado kills 91, levels neighborhoods, NY Times says Subscribe for More Information 06:47 EDT Central bank says German economy poised to recover, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:08 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 21 Subscribe for More Information 06:00 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 13.02, 10-day moving average is 12.70 CBOE Volatility Index VIX 50-day moving average is 13.34. 05:59 EDT As Fed suspense grows, dollar remains firm, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 05:56 EDT June front month equity options expire, June 21, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 05:45 EDT Commodities have eased Commodities have eased as the USD index posted a modest 0.3% gain to settle close to 84.00. Nymex is 0.2% lower to trade back below $97 bbl, while nominal gold headed back to $1377 on profit taking after it peeked above $1400 into the European open. Crude was boosted yesterday reportedly on news of a Saudi supply contraction and ongoing concerns about the Syrian conflict dragging others into the turmoil. Gold cut a large part of last week's losses amid a stop hunt during Monday's N.Y. afternoon amid expectations that Fed Chairman Bernanke could balance the recent argument for policy tapering. 04:55 EDT CNY strengthened to levels from late 1993 CNY strengthened to levels from late 1993 versus the USD, close to 6.1300 in the OTC market, as the overnight fix reached the highest level since the 2005 revaluation at 6.1911. Ongoing firmness fueled recent speculation that the PBoC will widen the FX trading band. Local economists expect PBoC to allow greater flexibility by Q3 as Beijing moves slowly to liberalise markets. The PBoc have warned over increased capital inflows and it has used its currency as way to manage inflationary pressures. The frothy inflationary backdrop has tied the PBoC's hand to a degree on policy at a time when the economic backdrop has been relatively mixed. Beijing is also a clever operator politically and Chinese President Xi Jingping is due to meet U.S. President Obama on June-7-8, where currencies are also expected to feature. 04:20 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY is underpinned Subscribe for More Information 01:20 EDT Asian stocks consolidated Subscribe for More Information May 20, 2013 15:02 EDT May ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 15:02 EDT April Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 14:55 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Subscribe for More Information 14:50 EDT Treasury Options Trade: a large block trade Subscribe for More Information 14:17 EDT Averages trading near session lows Subscribe for More Information 14:05 EDT More from Evans: the Fed may, or may not allow assets to run off Subscribe for More Information 13:44 EDT Moody's warns on U.S. downgrade without budget deal, Bloomberg says Subscribe for More Information 13:40 EDT More from Evans: the FOMC will keep its statement conditional Subscribe for More Information 13:30 EDT Chicago Fed's Evans said the economy is "improving quite a lot," Subscribe for More Information 13:10 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures have been fairly placid Subscribe for More Information 13:00 EDT Fed Policy Outlook: the markets are more or less on hold awaiting Chairman Bernanke's JEC testimony Subscribe for More Information 12:15 EDT NYMEX crude extended gains over $97 bbl Subscribe for More Information 11:50 EDT U.S. corporate debt: the calendar has a few multi-tranchers Subscribe for More Information 11:45 EDT Treasury's $55 B 3- and 6-month bill auction underachieved Subscribe for More Information 11:10 EDT NY Fed bought $1.45 B in bonds NY Fed bought $1.45 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through May 15, 2043. The Street offered $4.104 B. Bonds have pretty much given up their gains with the 30-year yield at 3.16% versus an earlier low of 3.125% amid a recovery on Wall Street. 11:10 EDT Treasury announced a $45 B bill auction for Tuesday Subscribe for More Information 11:07 EDT Democrats may use "nuclear option" to confirm Cordray, The Hill says Subscribe for More Information 10:35 EDT Treasury Option Action: a "package trade" on 10s and 5s Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying the usual $1.25 B to $1.75 B in bonds Subscribe for More Information 10:15 EDT Further Weakness Ahead in U.S. May: Subscribe for More Information 10:13 EDT Averages mixed, S&P little changed in early trading The muted futures action in the premarket session gave way to a slightly lower open for the broader market, but the averages have climbed back early in the session. Acquisition news, including Yahoo's (YHOO) purchase of Tumblr for $1.1B and Actavis' (ACT) agreement to buy Warner Chilcott (WCRX) in a $8.5B stock deal, have dominated the early news, especially given the very light economic calendar. A bit over a half hour into the session, the Dow is down 12 points, the Nasdaq is up 4 points and the S&P is virtually unchanged. 10:05 EDT Treasury Option Action: a large FIT steepener Treasury Option Action: a large FIT steepener is reportedly working its way through the market with bullish purchases of 30k in Jun 124 calls and a bearish sale of 25k in Sep 123.75 calls on 5-year futures against bearish "purchases of 10k in Sep 127/128 put spreads and 10k in Sep 127.5/128.5 put spreads" on 10-year futures. Meanwhile, 10-year futures continue to rally, now up 4-ticks near 131-315 compared to a 132-035 to 131-22 range. 09:40 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY dipped into 102.35 Subscribe for More Information 09:33 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 78c to 13.23 Subscribe for More Information 09:15 EDT Japan government panel warned on QE Japan government panel warned on QE, according to a Reuters article. The advisory group to Fin Min Aso worries that investor demand will not be sustained and that yields will spike higher as a result, which in turn could be a drag on long term growth prospects. Of course the JGB market has already seen yields surge since early April from 0.42% when the aggressive buybacks were outlined, to as high as 0.85% on Friday. 09:10 EDT Treasury Option Action: a large 5-year position in overnight trade Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. equities are slightly lower to start the week Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dropped further to -0.53 in April Subscribe for More Information 08:34 EDT Morgan Stanley's analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Analysts discuss the evolution of enterprise data center requirements on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 20 at 11 am. 08:20 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.11% Subscribe for More Information 08:20 EDT More Fedspeak still to come this afternoon Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD consolidated Friday's gains Subscribe for More Information 08:08 EDT BofA/Merrill's Senior Turkey-MENA Economist holds a conference call Subscribe for More Information 08:05 EDT Fed's Fisher said he would have started QE tapering at the last FOMC meeting Fed's Fisher said he would have started QE tapering at the last FOMC meeting on April 30, May 1 (via MBS), in comments on CNBC. Of course Fisher has been one of the most hawkish on the FOMC and has been arguing against QE for some time, but importantly, he is not a voter in 2013. He doesn't want to go from "wild turkey" on asset purchases, to "cold turkey" by halting QE -- when to dial back is key as just halting buybacks would be "too violent" for the markets. Chairman Bernanke's major concern is the efficacy of QE. He noted, as analysts've done, that asset buying has helped stocks, but wonders whether it's worked in the economy. He does not see broadbased deflation. The Dallas Fed president continues to aruge against Dodd-Frank, saying it's too complicated. Fisher would like to see Bernanke remain Chairman, avoiding answering a question who will be the next Chairman. But one thing he does know for sure is that it will not be he. Nothing really new from the always engaging Fisher. 07:50 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have caught a small bid Subscribe for More Information 07:38 EDT BofA/Merrill to host a field trip Subscribe for More Information 07:28 EDT Futures pointing to modestly lower open to start week Stock index futures are slightly lower ahead of a trading day that will feature little domestic economic data. The day's lone notable report, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for April, is due out at 8:30 am ET and had a prior reading of -0.23. 07:26 EDT CFA Institute to host annual conference Subscribe for More Information 07:13 EDT U.S. bonds cheapest in 23 years, Bloomberg reports The longest decline in Treasuries this year has left U.S. government debt the cheapest since March 2011 when measured by real yields and the best relative value compared with German bunds in more than two decades, reports Bloomberg.Reference Link 07:13 EDT Nikkei hits new 5 1/2-year high, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:48 EDT Obamacare supporters want voters to back Medicaid extensions, Politico says Subscribe for More Information 06:20 EDT Commodities remained on the heavy side Subscribe for More Information 06:03 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 20 Subscribe for More Information 05:57 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 12.45, 10-day moving average is 12.75 Subscribe for More Information 05:53 EDT June front month equity options expire, June 21, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 05:51 EDT Junk stock rally drives stock market, Bloomberg reports U.S. junk stocks are rallying more than any time in almost four years compared with the rest of the stock market amid the broadest rally since at least 1995, reports the Wall Street Journal. The Fed's interest rates near zero and the expanding economy are allowing S&P’s 500 Index companies with the lowest working capital, smallest earnings and highest debt ratios to reduce borrowing costs and avoid default. The stocks jumped 27% this year, nearly double the gains for businesses with the most cash and least borrowing, according to Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Group data.Reference Link 05:20 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY traded close to 102.50 Subscribe for More Information May 19, 2013 16:54 EDT Fed could cut back QE3 early if job gains persist, Reuters says Subscribe for More Information 13:40 EDT China new-home prices rise signaling challenge for Li, Bloomberg says Subscribe for More Information May 17, 2013 19:51 EDT Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 19:51 EDT FHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00 March FHFA House Price Index M/M change will be reported at 09:00 . Current consensus is 0.9% for the month 19:51 EDT May Farm Prices to be released at 15:00 Subscribe for More Information 16:15 EDT May Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55 Subscribe for More Information 16:15 EDT May Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45 18:59 EDT Personal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 15:20 EDT Treasury Action: Treasuries remain at their lows of the day Subscribe for More Information 15:10 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: Bonds bombed on Friday after the data took a turn for the better following a week of largely dour reports. The QE debate remained in full force, with fresh contributions from a think tank, PIMCO, Hilsenrath and Fed's Kocherlakota. Though this took on fresh urgency and relevance ahead of next week's FOMC minutes and Bernanke JEC testimony, though analysts don't expect it to be resolved by then. Though the NY Fed made its biggest purchase of Treasuries of the week, it barely slowed the sell-off at the long-end today. 14:40 EDT More from Kocherlakota: the Fed needs to better communicate its QE stance and the timing of its taper More from Kocherlakota: the Fed needs to better communicate its QE stance and the timing of its taper. But he added the communication tool is still a work in progress. The new set of thresholds are an important component of monetary policy. It would be difficult for the Fed to start raising rates with the unemployment rate over 6.5%. 14:00 EDT Fed's Kocherlakota's comments are dovish Subscribe for More Information 13:50 EDT Action Economics Survey results: Action Economics Survey results: Fed taper talk still dominates the market chatter as the beginning to the end continues to be debated. But setting a date seems more like trying to pin the tail on the donkey, and a moving donkey at that, considering the uncertainty over when the employment and inflation criteria will be met. There's a dearth of crucial economic data out over the next two weeks, so neither analysts nor the FOMC will get much new information. However, median estimates suggest what figures will be released will support signs of moderate growth. Both new and existing home sales are expected to post gains in April. Durable goods orders are also expected to rebound, while Q1 GDP is expected to be revised slightly higher. More importantly though, Chairman Bernanke testifies before the JEC on Wednesday where analysts'll scrutinize his comments for any new policy leanings following the shift to a symmetric stance on asset purchases at the May 1 meeting. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> 13:45 EDT U.S. Treasury is prepared to take steps to free up $260 B Subscribe for More Information 13:15 EDT Treasury Action: Treasuries have been smacked Subscribe for More Information 13:05 EDT U.S. equities have stalled out below highs Subscribe for More Information 12:31 EDT Fitch downgrades Slovenia to 'BBB+' from 'A-', outlook negative Subscribe for More Information 12:25 EDT WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath Previewed Bernanke's JEC testimony WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath Previewed Bernanke's JEC testimony in a video journal on the "Real Time Economics" blog, summarized as follows: amid the QE taper debate the Fed would clearly like for the economy to be sufficiently strong to head for the exit, but inflation has been declining and the jobs outlook improving somewhat, which suggests that the Fed is "not there yet." The debate could focus on risk of a stock market bubble, but Bernanke has downplayed that in recent speeches. Housing gains have been important, but that's one of the Fed's primary goals to help restore household balance sheets and improve confidence and spending. As to Ben's successor, Hilsenrath leans toward Yellen and away from Geithner and Summers, who have closer ties to the Obama Administration at an awkward time during recent IRS scandals and the like. 12:21 EDT Energy Department authorizes LNG export facility Subscribe for More Information 11:10 EDT Another Gross Tweet from PIMCO: Subscribe for More Information 11:10 EDT NY Fed bought $5.469 B in notes Subscribe for More Information 11:00 EDT U.S. factory goods benchmarked data showed mixed revisions Subscribe for More Information 10:55 EDT Today's U.S. reports Today's U.S. reports revealed a big upside May surprise for Michigan sentiment that included an outsized-pop in the present conditions index, alongside a 0.6% April leading indicators rise that beat assumptions, but that followed downward back-revisions that left the April index at the expected level. Analysts would partly attribute the big sentiment surge to volatility in the preliminary survey, and analysts assume some mean-reversion in the final May survey that trims the hefty May gain in the present conditions measure. Overall, today's upside headline surprises take some of the edge off yesterday's disappointing Philly Fed, initial claims and housing starts headlines. 10:54 EDT Guggenheim's Washington Research Group's political analyst holds conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT Michigan sentiment surged to a new cycle-high 83.7 Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $4.75 B to $5.75 B in notes Subscribe for More Information 10:20 EDT FX Action: The dollar got another boost FX Action: The dollar got another boost from the much better Michigan sentiment and leading indicators outcomes, taking USD-JPY to new trend highs over 103.10 before retreating. EUR-USD meanwhile, dipped under 1.2800 briefly, before popping back to 1.2820. Cable made session lows under 1.5175, while USD-CAD inched slightly lower on the better U.S. data. Wall Street is on session highs, as yields moved up a touch. 10:12 EDT Leading Indicators data reported Subscribe for More Information 10:10 EDT Treasury Action: yields backed up into the U. Mich. report Subscribe for More Information 10:10 EDT U.S. index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in April to 95.0 Subscribe for More Information 10:05 EDT U.S. May consumer sentiment index surged to 83.7 for the preliminary University of Michigan survey Subscribe for More Information 10:03 EDT Market opens higher ahead of options expiration Stocks were strong at the open as traders rolled out positions ahead of the expiration of options. The volume was relatively heavy at the open, which is typical for a Friday on which options will expire. The averages have already pared back some of their gains but may get a lift from the better than expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading. The reading of 83.7 was above the expected 77.9. The Leading Economic Indicators for April increased 0.6% versus the expected increase of 0.2%. 10:00 EDT U.S. leading economic indicators preview: U.S. leading economic indicators preview: The April index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to rise 0.3% (median 0.1%). Analysts expect a mix of component data, with gains led by the yield curve alongside declines from the factory workweek and ISM new orders. preview for more. 09:56 EDT Consumer Sentiment Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:55 EDT U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: Michigan Sentiment is expected to show a slight increase to 76.5 (median 78.5) from 76.4 in April. Already released measures of consumer confidence for the month have been weaker with the IBD/TIPP Poll falling to 45.1 from 46.2 and the RBC-CASH Index ticking down to 50.2 from 50.3. 09:31 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently down 33c to 12.74 Subscribe for More Information 09:30 EDT Fed Policy: think tank report circulating on next week's FOMC Minutes Fed Policy: think tank report circulating on next week's FOMC Minutes to the April 30, May 1 policy meeting. The report suggests the mintues will show the ongoing debate on the Committee behind QE and the exit (no kidding). The Fed is facing a number of challenges in determing its policy path. Indeed, as analysts have noted there are a number of factors arguing for and against QE (according to the Fed's criteria) that make it a difficult call. Supposedly the FOMC will only start really planning an exit at next month's meeting (such was somewhat presaged by the Hilsenrath article that the Fed is mapping a strategy). Analysts don't expect any definitive indications in next month's policy statement regarading the timing of an exit as much remains dependent on economic and financial conditions. Analysts'll continue to monitor data (as will the Fed and everyone else in the market), especially the May employment numbers, for clues. 09:25 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures are dead quiet Euro$ interest rate futures are dead quiet though the dollar index has just notched fresh trend highs and other rates along the Tsy curve are inching higher as well. Yet the Jun 2013 contract is flat at 99.725, while the deferreds don't seem to have a pulse either. 3-month dollar Libor declined to 0.2736% from 0.2741%, however, while the Libor/OIS spread held fast at +14 bp. 09:25 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.0313 highs Subscribe for More Information 09:08 EDT Deutsche Bank's specialty pharma analyst to hold a conference call Specialty Pharmaceuticals Analyst Steinberg, along with COO Jacobsen of AlcheraBio and President Van Schoick of Med-Pharmex Animal Health, discuss animal healthcare on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 17 at 1 pm. 09:00 EDT Treasury Action: longer dated Treasuries have shed their gains Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.12% Subscribe for More Information 08:00 EDT Treasury Market Outlook sovereign debt markets are mostly higher but are off their best levels Subscribe for More Information 07:51 EDT JPMorgan's TMT analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:48 EDT Deutsche Bank's automotive analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT Futures lower ahead of open Stock futures are pointing to a slightly lower open, continuing the pattern that has been in place all week. For most of the week, the market has opened lower, but buyers have emerged and brought the averages back to positive territory. With options due to expire today, there may be increased volatility as traders roll out positions. As a result, the pattern that has been in place so far this week could be altered. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence reading and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators will be released after the market opens. 07:30 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD extended gains over 1.0255 Subscribe for More Information 07:25 EDT S&P warns India of rating downgrade, Economic Times reports Subscribe for More Information 07:20 EDT N.Y. FX Outlook N.Y. FX Outlook: Aside from moves in the commodity bloc, FX trade was fairly steady overnight. The euro and yen moved inside of familiar ranges, as the CAD and AUD seased back on global growth concerns. Friday trade may be consolidative into the weekend, with the data calendar light. Preliminary May U. of Michigan sentiment is due at 9:55 EDT, followed by April leading indicators at 10:00 EDT. 07:10 EDT Stocks continue to rise after lukewarm earnings, WSJ reports A so-so Q1 earnings season hasn't dented investors' enthusiasm for stocks as prices have been rising, with the DJIA up 16% for the year and 4.2% since earnings season began April 8, reports the Wall Street Journal.Reference Link 06:55 EDT European Midday FX Update Subscribe for More Information 06:52 EDT Drug companies using databases to track doctors, NY Times reports Subscribe for More Information 06:48 EDT Finance Minister says French economy poised to rebound, Reuters says Subscribe for More Information 06:33 EDT BofA/Merrill to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 06:20 EDT Week of 5/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30 06:20 EDT Week of 5/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30 Subscribe for More Information 06:05 EDT BOJ expected to stay with monetay policy, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:02 EDT Shares in Europe down as Fed officials talk of QE exit, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 05:58 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 17 Subscribe for More Information 05:55 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 13.07, 10-day moving average is 12.79 Subscribe for More Information 05:53 EDT May front month equity options expire today, May 17, 2013 02:10 EDT Asia FX Update Subscribe for More Information May 16, 2013 18:06 EDT Central Bank of Chile keeps interest rate at 5% Subscribe for More Information 16:39 EDT Money Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported Subscribe for More Information 16:39 EDT Fed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported Week of 5/15 Fed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit at $26.8B 16:39 EDT Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported Subscribe for More Information 16:28 EDT Week of 5/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00 Subscribe for More Information 16:28 EDT Week of 5/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Pending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00 April Pending Home Sales Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 1.4% for the month 16:28 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 18:59 EDT Jobless Claims to be reported at 08:30 Subscribe for More Information 16:28 EDT Corporate Profits to be released at 08:30 15:20 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: Yields rotated sharply lower as the losing streak in U.S. data continued on Thursday, though largely ignored by stocks which preferred to look at the bright side in terms of the Fed QEinfinity while marveling at the elevation of Cisco after its stellar earnings report. Bond-friendly news came from the sizable rebound in claims and plunge in housing starts, and tame core CPI, followed by another plunge on the Philly Fed index. Fedspeak ran the gamut from dovish Rosengren to hawkish Fisher, though WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrather later in his blog said the Fed isn't that concerned about deflationary risks due to quirks in the inflation data. 15:08 EDT Fed's Williams says central bank may trim bond buying by Summer, DJ reports Williams says Fed may be able to halt QE program by year end, according to Dow Jones. 15:07 EDT Moody's upgrades Turkey government bonds to 'Baa3' from 'Ba1', outlook stable Subscribe for More Information 14:55 EDT Canada Wholesale Preview Canada Wholesale Preview: Analysts expect wholesale shipments, due Friday, to rise 0.5% in March (median +0.1%) after the flat reading in February. The 0.3% drop in March manufacturing shipments is a downside risk for our wholesale sales projection. The wholesale report will help firm-up the March GDP forecast. Analysts currently expect March GDP to rise 0.1% after the 0.3% surge in February. 14:30 EDT BoJ is expected to discuss the impact of the surge in JGB yields at next week's policy meeteing BoJ is expected to discuss the impact of the surge in JGB yields at next week's policy meeteing (Tuesday, Wednesday), according to the Nikkei. There have been concerns over the volatity and jump in rates that have seen the 10-year JGB yield climb from 0.436% on April 4 when the Bank announced it's massive buyback operation, to an intraday high at 0.92% on Wednesday. Policymakers will also discuss the various risks associated with the move up in rates, and the potential impact on the 2% inflation target. They may also revise their economic outlook higher. Meanwhile, PM Abe indicated he will outline a more stimulus measures Friday, including ways to encourage leasing to boost capital spending. 14:00 EDT Averages mixed in lackluster session Subscribe for More Information 13:20 EDT Treasury Action: the bond market has sustained its early, post-data gains Subscribe for More Information 13:20 EDT More from Rasking: incomes are not increasing at a "robust level" More from Rasking: incomes are not increasing at a "robust level" [sic] she said in post speech Q&A. She added that student debt is an important element of the economy. She worries it could restraing household formation. The Fed is monitoring the "mounting levels of student debt." 12:50 EDT Fed's Raskin said the Fed's highly accommodative policy stance is appropriate Fed's Raskin said the Fed's highly accommodative policy stance is appropriate in her speech on "Prospects for a Stronger Recovery" before the Society of Government Economists and the National Economists Club. Asset purchases have provided "meaningful support" to the recovery. She projects a moderately paced recovery and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and reiterated sentiment from the FOMC that fiscal policy is an "important source of restraint," along with income inequality, while the financial sector is presenting less of a headwind. Analysts see nothing in the tone of her comments that would suggest she would argue for QE tapering any time soon. 12:46 EDT Bank of Japan to discuss impact of long-term rate increase, Nikkei says Subscribe for More Information 12:25 EDT Euro$ interest rate options: a few more mostly bearish deals Subscribe for More Information 12:05 EDT U.S. corporate debt: a Thomson Reuters $800 M 2-trancher Subscribe for More Information 10:55 EDT Treasury announces 10-year TIPS reopening details at the top of the hour Subscribe for More Information 10:55 EDT Today's U.S. reports Today's U.S. reports mostly provided downside surprises that highlighted May factory sector weakness via a weak Philly Fed report, likely April weather disruptions to construction given a big housing starts drop despite a permits pop that was a concentrated in both the South and the multi-family sector, a claims surge that reversed the good news in the last two weekly reports, and surprising price weakness in the April CPI report. One silver lining to the weak CPI price data is that it boosted prospects for Q2 "real" consumption growth, which analysts now peg at 2.5% as households continue to defy the policy headwinds from tax rate hikes and sequestration. 10:35 EDT More from Fed hawk Fisher: Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT EIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending May 10 Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT The May Philly Fed drop to -5.2 The May Philly Fed drop to -5.2 from 1.3 left the index above recent negative readings of -12.5 in February and -5.8 in January but below the 4.6 recent-high in December. The ISM-adjusted measure bucked the headline drop with a rise to 47.1 from 46.8 in April, versus a 50.6 recent-high in December and a 44.4 recent-low in June of 2012. The Philly Fed drop accompanied a May Empire State decline to -1.43 from 3.05, alongside an ISM-adjusted drop to 49.0 from 50.1. Analysts now expect a Chicago ISM rise to 49.5 (was 50.0) from 49.0, an ISM down-tick to 50.5 (was 51.0) from 50.7, and an ISM-NMI down-tick to 53.0 (was 53.5) from 53.1. The mix should leave the ISM-adjusted average unchanged from 50 in April, versus 51 in March, a 53 nine-month high in February, a 58 cycle-high in February of 2011, and a 36 cycle-low in March of 2009. 10:15 EDT Treasury Action: yields stumbled another leg lower Subscribe for More Information 10:14 EDT Averages remain mixed after worse than expected Philly Fed report Subscribe for More Information 10:10 EDT U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 6.5 pts to -5.2 in May Subscribe for More Information 10:05 EDT Another Gross Tweet from PIMCO: Subscribe for More Information 10:01 EDT Philadelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:55 EDT U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview Subscribe for More Information 09:50 EDT The U.S. housing starts report Subscribe for More Information 09:33 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 24c to 13.05 Subscribe for More Information 09:30 EDT The 32k U.S. initial claims surge to 360k Subscribe for More Information 09:30 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures were unperturbed Subscribe for More Information 09:20 EDT U.S. equities are slightly lower after damp data Subscribe for More Information 09:15 EDT The big 0.4% April U.S. CPI headline drop Subscribe for More Information 09:05 EDT Fed Policy Outlook: the slowing in CPI will be a major cause of concern for Chairman Bernanke Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT U.S. initial jobless claims rose 32k to 360k in the week ended May 11 Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields plunged with the weaker data streak Treasury Action: yields plunged with the weaker data streak extended today after the plunge in housing starts, modest rise in jobless claims and tame core CPI. The T-note yield stalled out ahead of 1.96% into these reports, then spilled lower to 1.90% before stabilizing again. The 2s-10s spread flattened from the +172 bp area to +166 bp. 08:45 EDT U.S. CPI dropped a larger than forecast 0.4% in April with the core rate up 0.1% Subscribe for More Information 08:37 EDT Housing Starts Permits data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:37 EDT Consumer Price Index CPI data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:37 EDT Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy data reported April Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy at 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.2% 08:37 EDT Housing Starts data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:37 EDT Jobless Claims data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:36 EDT Futures trade near fair value following economic reports Subscribe for More Information 08:20 EDT U.S. CPI Preview U.S. CPI Preview: April headline CPI is expected to show a 0.1% decline (median -0.1%), while the core index rises 0.2% (median 0.2%). The 0.2% March CPI headline drop undershot expectations due to a 2.6% energy price drop that captured a big chunk of the 3.4% decline in the March PPI report and a flat food price figure. Today's 0.7% PPI decline for April was led by another big energy price drop and a smaller food price decline. 08:20 EDT U.S. Housing Starts Preview Subscribe for More Information 08:20 EDT U.S. initial jobless claims preview: Subscribe for More Information 08:16 EDT Foreign direct investment in China slowed, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.12% Subscribe for More Information 08:06 EDT Cato Institute discusses proposals for monetary reform Subscribe for More Information 08:04 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy Subscribe for More Information 08:01 EDT Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds a meeting Subscribe for More Information 08:00 EDT Boston Fed's Rosengren says the Fed's highly accommodative policy is appropriate Subscribe for More Information 07:50 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower Subscribe for More Information 07:47 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher speaks at NABE conference Subscribe for More Information 07:45 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren speaks at conference Subscribe for More Information 07:40 EDT Another heavy dose of Fedspeak on Thursday Another heavy dose of Fedspeak on Thursday will include dovish Boston Fed's Rosengren (voter), who speaks on "Recovery 2013 -- Strength or Stagnation?" from 7:45 ET. Dallas Fed hawk Fisher (non-voter) delivers "An Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook" for the NABE conference at 9 ET. Moderate Governor Bloom-Raskin explains the "Prospects for a Stronger Recovery" from 12:30 ET. SF Fed dove Williams (non-voter) addresses the economy and monetary policy from 15:05 ET. And Richmond Fed hawk Lacker (non-voter) explores the economic outlook from 19:15 ET. Speaking overnight, Philly Fed hawk Plosser repeated his call for starting the reduction in QE purchases at the June FOMC and said Europe was not out of its debt crisis. 07:32 EDT CIBC to host a conference High Yield Conference is being held in Toronto on May 16. 07:31 EDT Deutsche Bank to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:30 EDT Deutsche Bank to host a conference dbAccess Housebuilders Day is being held in London, England on May 16. 07:29 EDT JPMorgan to host a conference Business Services Conference is being held in London, England on May 16. 07:25 EDT N.Y. FX Outlook Subscribe for More Information 07:12 EDT U.S. housing growth threatened by new bubble, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 07:11 EDT Gold demand fell to lowest level in three years in Q1, Bloomberg reports Gold demand slid 13% to the lowest in three years in Q1 as record exchange-traded product sales by investors outweighed a surge in buying from China and India, says the World Gold Council, reports Bloomberg.Reference Link 07:10 EDT Euro zone debt crisis now worst of post World War II, WSJ reports The euro zone debt crisis has mutated into Europe's longest slump of the post World War II era, with no recovery in sight for a broad swath of the continent. Continuing government austerity, banks that can't or won't lend and heavy household debts are weighing on many countries, reports the Wall Street Journal.Reference Link 06:53 EDT Euro zone faces deflation threat, Reuters says Subscribe for More Information 06:46 EDT No euro zone stimulus measures expected soon, NY Times says Subscribe for More Information 06:27 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 16 Subscribe for More Information 06:10 EDT Commodity markets remained heavy in Europe Subscribe for More Information 06:00 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 12.01, 10-day moving average is 12.84 CBOE Volatility Index VIX 50-day moving average is 13.35. 05:57 EDT May front month equity options expire, May 17, 2013 04:30 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY headed back to the 102.50 region Subscribe for More Information 01:15 EDT Asian stocks were mixed Subscribe for More Information May 15, 2013 20:05 EDT Japan's Q1 GDP revealed a 3.5% gain Subscribe for More Information 20:00 EDT Treasury suspends sale of SLGS starting May 17 Subscribe for More Information 16:48 EDT Treasury to suspend sale of SLGS state, local securities, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 16:31 EDT Week of 5/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55 16:31 EDT Week of 5/25 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45 Subscribe for More Information 16:31 EDT Week of 5/24 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00 Subscribe for More Information 15:30 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Subscribe for More Information 14:55 EDT U.S. CPI Preview Subscribe for More Information 14:50 EDT U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: Subscribe for More Information 14:15 EDT U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview Subscribe for More Information 14:10 EDT U.S. Housing Starts Preview U.S. Housing Starts Preview: Thursday's report on April housing starts is expected to show a 5.4% decline for the headline to a 980k (median 970k) level following the 1,036k level in March which marked a new high since 2008. Accompanying the report analysts expect permits to increase to 955k from 907k and completions to rise to 810k from 800k in March. 13:44 EDT Averages higher but off best levels Subscribe for More Information 13:40 EDT EU looking to shift burden of bailing out troubled banks, AP reports Subscribe for More Information 13:05 EDT U.S. corporate bond update: it's a hefty calendar today Subscribe for More Information 12:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields ramped back up to highs Subscribe for More Information 12:40 EDT FX Action: The dollar has moved back toward session highs FX Action: The dollar has moved back toward session highs versus most major currencies, after stumbling in the aftermath of the softer U.S. data earlier. Stocks have rebounded, and as had been the case earlier in the week, firmer equities seem to be supporting the dollar. The soft Q1 EU GDP data released this morning appears to have highlighted how much better a position the U.S. is in from a growth standpoint, and could support the greenback further in the coming days and weeks. 11:35 EDT Treasury Action: supply/demand dynamics remain bullish for the bond market Subscribe for More Information 11:05 EDT U.S. TIC Flows Mixed in March: Subscribe for More Information 10:55 EDT Another Tweet from PIMCO's Gross: Another Tweet from PIMCO's Gross: "Stock appreciation dependent on financial engineering now like stock buybacks, debt 4 equity switches. Real earnings and sales growth tough." Fair enough, sounds like he's talking about Apple, whose shares are 2% lower near $435 today and, of course, others using these tactics. 10:50 EDT EU to investigate China's telecommunications practices, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 10:45 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY options could fuel more price chop Subscribe for More Information 10:40 EDT Oil Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied slightly to $92.68 Subscribe for More Information 10:35 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures are flat as a pre-Galilean map Subscribe for More Information 10:31 EDT Crude Inventories for the week of May 10 Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.75 B to $1.0 B in Treasuries NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.75 B to $1.0 B in Treasuries ranging from August 2023 through February 2031. The small buyback is supportive at the margin for bonds in conjunction with the weaker than expected data. Longer dated yields are 3 to 4 bps lower with the 10-year at 1.93%. 10:25 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY losses were contained to just under 102.00 Subscribe for More Information 10:20 EDT Treasury Option Action: unwinding of bearish positioning Treasury Option Action: unwinding of bearish positioning has been reported with the "sale of 5k in Jun 130.5/131.5 put spreads." The Jun 10-year future is 7-ticks firmer near 131-30 compared to its 132-10 to 131-16 range, having already based and rebounded. Recall, there had been heavy bearish put and put spread demand on all the Fed taper talk, so this could well be some profit-taking. 10:20 EDT Today's U.S. reports Subscribe for More Information 10:15 EDT Treasury Action: yields found some support above lows Subscribe for More Information 10:12 EDT Averages slightly lower in early trading Stock futures were slightly lower throughout the pre-market trading session after the Empire Manufacturing and Industrial Production reports disappointed investors. After the NAHB Housing Market Index for May came in at 44, versus expectations for a reading of 43, the indices came off their lows. About 40 minutes into the session, the Dow is down 11 points, the Nasdaq is down 2 points and the S&P is down 2 points. 10:01 EDT Housing Market Index data reported May Housing Market Index at 44 vs. consensus of 44 10:00 EDT The big 0.5% April U.S. industrial production drop Subscribe for More Information 09:34 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 18c to 12.95 09:30 EDT U.S. industrial production dropped 0.5% in April Subscribe for More Information 09:30 EDT FX Action: The dollar slipped further FX Action: The dollar slipped further after the softer industrial production outcome, taking USD-JPY under 102.20, and EUR-USD up a tick to 1.2885. Stock futures jerked a bit lower, while yields stayed firm. FX trade is relatively light overall, though today's data so far has put a bit of a dent in growth sentiment. 09:30 EDT Treasury Action: yields eased further Subscribe for More Information 09:17 EDT Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:17 EDT Industrial Production Manufacturing data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:17 EDT Industrial Production data reported April Industrial Production down -0.5% vs consensus of -0.2% for the month 09:15 EDT U.S. Treasury capital flows showed foreigners sold another $13.5 B in net long-term assets in March Subscribe for More Information 09:10 EDT The 0.7% U.S. April PPI decline The 0.7% U.S. April PPI decline extended the big 0.6% March drop, thanks to another big energy price drop and a smaller food price decline. Core prices rose by a lean 0.1% in April to extend the string of 0.1%-0.2% monthly gains since October, with restraint due to small vehicle price declines. Commodity price gains into May should cap the recent-two month drop, and analysts assume a 0.4% May headline PPI rise with a 0.2% core price increase. The y/y headline gauge fell to 0.6% from 1.1% in March and 1.7% in February, versus a slightly lower 0.5% recent-low in July of 2012. The core y/y gauge remained at 1.7% for a third consecutive month, versus a 0.9% cycle-low in December of 2009. Analysts expect a climb in headline y/y gains back toward 2% by June due to harder comparisons alongside continued sub-2% y/y core gains. Yesterday's trade price report revealed big April food and energy price drops alongside core price declines that further reversed early-Q1 gains. For the remaining April reports, analysts expect 0.1% headline CPI and PCE chain price drops, with respective core price gains of 0.2% and 0.1%. 09:01 EDT Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported Subscribe for More Information 09:00 EDT U.S. TIC preview: Subscribe for More Information 09:00 EDT U.S. Industrial Production Preview Subscribe for More Information 09:00 EDT The U.S. Empire State May drop to -1.43 Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT FX Action: The dollar eased back Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT U.S. PPI fell 0.7% April after a 0.6% decline in March. The core rate edged up 0.1% U.S. PPI fell 0.7% April after a 0.6% decline in March. The core rate edged up 0.1% after March's 0.2% increase. Energy prices fell 2.5% after March's 3.4% drop. Foods were down 0.8%. Consumer goods prices dropped 1.0% as gasoline prices fell 6.0% following a 6.8% drop previously. Passenger car prices declined 0.2%. Residential gas was up 4.5%. Women's apparel was up 0.2%. Capital equipment costs inched up 0.1%, with light motor truck prices down 0.1% and computers off 0.9%. Data are a little weaker than expected and continue to reflect a global slowdown in inflation. 08:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields eased slightly lower Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. Empire State manufacturing index fell 4.5 points to -1.4 in May Subscribe for More Information 08:34 EDT Futures remain quiet following economic reports Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Empire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Producer Price Index PPI data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Producer Price Index PPI less food & energy data reported April Producer Price Index PPI less food & energy up 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.2% for the month 08:15 EDT N.Y. FX Outlook Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.12% Subscribe for More Information 08:05 EDT Canada Manufacturing Preview: Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect manufacturing shipments to rise 1.0% in March. The increase would follow the 2.6% surge in February. Export values surged 5.1% in March. Growth was broadbased and export volumes also rose 5.1%. Also on the encouraging side, unfilled orders rose 0.5% in February after a 5.5% gain in January, extending the run of gains seen since November. 08:00 EDT U.S. PPI preview: Subscribe for More Information 08:00 EDT U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: May Empire State index is expected to show the headline increasing to 5.0 (median 3.6) from 3.1 in April. The Empire State will give us the first look at how sentiment may be performing in May. At present analysts expect rebounds across the board after a weak April. 07:55 EDT U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 7.3% Subscribe for More Information 07:53 EDT New America Foundation to hold a discussion Subscribe for More Information 07:43 EDT Bank of England sees growth to be a little stronger, inflation a little weaker Subscribe for More Information 07:40 EDT Citigroup to host a conference Taiwan Investor Conference is being held in Taipei, Taiwan on May 15-16. 07:40 EDT Credit Suisse to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:39 EDT Standard & Poor's to host a webcast Subscribe for More Information 07:37 EDT JPMorgan to host a conference European Investor 1:1 Conference is being held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands on May 15. 07:35 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly higher Subscribe for More Information 07:32 EDT Jefferies to host a forum Subscribe for More Information 07:29 EDT Futures quiet in early trading Subscribe for More Information 07:26 EDT Global Pacific & Partners to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:25 EDT American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy to hold annual meeting Subscribe for More Information 07:12 EDT Dollar Index at highest level in nine months, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 07:11 EDT Concerns raised about a lack of bonds, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported Week of 5/10 MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index down -8.0% for the week 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 07:01 EDT MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported Subscribe for More Information 06:13 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 15 Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.70 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 2.29%, DAX up 0.11%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $93.53, NYMEX Natural Gas up 0.17%, gold at $1411 and ounce copper down 1.09%. 06:12 EDT Gold declines to a three week low, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 06:08 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 12.77, 10-day moving average is 13.01 Subscribe for More Information 06:04 EDT May front month equity options expire, May 17, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 06:03 EDT Germany's growth remains slow while France falls into recession, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 05:40 EDT Commodities remained under pressure Commodities remained under pressure on broad dollar strength, which forced Nymex crude 0.70% lower to the $93.50 bbl region and nominal gold was 1% lower close to $1410. Weighing on the commodity market tone was eurozone GDP data weakness, which came in below expectations. In Asia, China Premier Li also admitted that it would be difficult in the current circumstances to stimulate the economy and pressure remained on the downside. 04:25 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY broke 102.50 barriers FX Action: USD-JPY broke 102.50 barriers amid early European account interest reportedly on behalf of the hedge fund community. So far, corrective action is limited as market participants position for a move up through 103.00 ahead of PM Abe's growth strategy announcement, which is tipped for Friday. Large 103.00 barriers are set to roll off at Friday's N.Y. cut, but vols have taken off as option accounts hedge for further upside risk. Exporters are also aggressively hedging on a 102 handle in anticipation of large option related dollar supply. Buyers are tipped from 102.00 to 101.80 and towards the 101.50 region. 01:05 EDT Asian stocks were underpinned Subscribe for More Information May 14, 2013 16:22 EDT May State Street Investor Confidence Index to be released at 10:00 18:59 EDT Consumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00 Subscribe for More Information 14:30 EDT U.S. fiscal 2013 deficit has been revised down to $642 B U.S. fiscal 2013 deficit has been revised down to $642 B, from $845 B in the February estimate, according to the new CBO forecasts. If achieved, this will be the smallest red ink amount since 2008, and the first time below $1 B since then. As a percent of GDP, it will be only 4.0%, less than half of the 10.1% it was with the FY 2009 deficit. The FY 2014 deficit is now expected to shrink to $560 B. Better than expected receipts are the main factor behind the improved budget outlook. 14:20 EDT U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview Subscribe for More Information 14:20 EDT U.S. Industrial Production Preview Subscribe for More Information 14:01 EDT Averages higher, but off best levels Each of the major equity indices remains higher but off their best levels of the day. The move is broad based, with the S&P currently the day's biggest winner, up almost 0.8%. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 2:1 and up volume is ahead of down volume by almost 4:1. Crude oil prices are lower by 0.2% and gold is down 0.6%. The Dow is up 77 points, the Nasdaq is up 18 points, and the S&P is up 12 points. 13:55 EDT U.S. equities are holding their own Subscribe for More Information 12:55 EDT U.S. corporate bond update: the issuance calendar is much less active today U.S. corporate bond update: the issuance calendar is much less active today. Toyota Motor Credit is selling benchmark sized 3-year fixed and just added a 3-year floater. DISH has a $2.5 B deal in 10-year senior notes. Kimco Realty is offering a $300 M 10-year. Hershey launched a $250 M 10-year. Fannie will price a benchmark 3-year Wednesday. 12:35 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY is comfortably above 102.00 again Subscribe for More Information 12:30 EDT Another PIMCO Tweet from Gross Subscribe for More Information 12:20 EDT Treasury Option Action: some bullish positioning Subscribe for More Information 12:16 EDT Fitch upgrades Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC', outlook stable Fitch Ratings has upgraded Greece's long-term foreign and local currency IDRs to 'B-' from 'CCC'. The short-term foreign currency IDR has also been upgraded to 'B' from 'C' and the Country Ceiling upgraded to 'B' from 'B-'. The outlook on the long-term IDRs is stable. The upgrade of Greece's sovereign ratings by one notch reflects some the following factors: The Greek economy is rebalancing: clear progress has been made towards eliminating twin fiscal and current account deficits and 'internal devaluation' has begun to take hold. The price has been high in terms of lost output and rising unemployment and the capacity for recovery is still in doubt. Nonetheless, sovereign debt relief and an easing of fiscal targets have lifted central bank measures of economic sentiment to a three-year high and the risk of eurozone exit has receded. Reference Link 12:14 EDT Fitch upgrades Greece to 'B-' from 'CCC', outlook stable Subscribe for More Information 11:45 EDT Treasury's $20 B 4-week bill auction was solid Subscribe for More Information 11:40 EDT Reports of an EU raid on oil company offices Subscribe for More Information 11:23 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 64c to 13.19 11:10 EDT NY Fed bought $3.306 B in Treasuries Subscribe for More Information 10:50 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures are treading water Subscribe for More Information 10:40 EDT Treasury Action: Treasuries are higher on the day Subscribe for More Information 10:30 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD gains were capped below noted 1.0070 offers Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.75 B to $3.5 B in Treasuries Subscribe for More Information 10:05 EDT Japan PM Abe is set to announce a growth strategy Japan PM Abe is set to announce a growth strategy on Friday. According to BoJ watchers he will begin phase II on growth, which will focus on corporate tax cut, deregulation and investment policy. Abe has said that he would compile a growth strategy before the G8 summit in June and Tokyo insiders are tipping Friday as the big announcement. USD-JPY ticked up on the talk and briefly traded back over 101.80 from the 101.70 area, but overall it is still struggling to reassert itself on 102.00 amid corporate hedging and large option structures from 102.50 to 103.00. 10:00 EDT Treasury Option Action: some more bearish positioning Subscribe for More Information 09:52 EDT Market higher as Tuesday streak looks to continue Subscribe for More Information 09:39 EDT Citigroup's analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 09:32 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently up 4c to 12.59 09:15 EDT Treasury Option Action: mixed overnight trade Subscribe for More Information 08:57 EDT Redbook Store Sales data reported Week of 5/11 Redbook Store Sales up 2.8% for the year 08:55 EDT U.S. trade prices revealed headline April declines Subscribe for More Information 08:50 EDT U.S. equities are trading fairly flat U.S. equities are trading fairly flat heading toward the open after dipping with global stocks on a lack of compelling data overnight and very hawkish words from Fed's Plosser who targeted the June FOMC meeting for the start of QE tapering. Import prices fell 0.5%, while exports were 0.7% lower, clearly not flagging inflation risks. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.16%, while the HK Hang Seng sank 0.26% and the Shanghai Comp settled 1.11% lower. Over in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is roughly flat after ZEW and IP left something to be desired, while HICP inflation remained very low. The Dow is 2-points higher, S&P gained 1-point and NASDAQ is fractionally lower in pre-open action. In corporate news, Tesla electronic cars continued to rally on its stronger sales forecasts, while Sony's U.S. shares could be in play after investor Loeb called for it to spin off its entertainment unit. Nokia revealed a new version of its Lumia phone, though its shares fell nearly 4%. RIM Blackberry is in focus during its 3-day Live conference. 08:45 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD touched session highs over 1.0140 Subscribe for More Information 08:45 EDT Treasury Action: yields held steady below highs Treasury Action: yields held steady below highs following the weak trade price report, which clearly doesn't give the Fed any fresh motivation to end QE prematurely. The T-note yield is holding near 1.91%, having fallen from 1.93% to1.90% overnight. The 2s-10s spread has pulled back from Monday wides near +170 bp to trade inside +167 bp. 08:45 EDT FX Action: The dollar inched slightly higher Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. import prices fell 0.5% in April, while export prices declined 0.7%. Subscribe for More Information 08:38 EDT Futures move towards positive territory Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Export Prices data reported. Subscribe for More Information 08:31 EDT Import Prices data reported. April Import Prices down -0.5% vs. consensus of down 0.5% for the month. 08:15 EDT U.S. trade price preview: Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.12% Fed funds opened at 0.12% after a 0.13% close last night. The rate ranged from 0.01% to 0.3125% with a 0.12% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were flat to higher at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate rose to 0.14650% from 0.14600% on Friday. The 1-week rate edged up to 0.16520% versus 0.16470%. The 3-month rate was steady at 0.27510%. The 12-month rate was unchanged at 0.70110%. 08:05 EDT U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 2.0% in the week ended May 11 Subscribe for More Information 07:54 EDT David Tepper says 'definitely' bullish on stock market Subscribe for More Information 07:50 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher Subscribe for More Information 07:49 EDT Senate Agriculture, Nutirition & Forestry Committee to hold a markup The Committee holds a Markup to consider the Agriculture Reform, Food and Jobs Act of 2013 (the 2013 Farm Bill) on May 14 at 10 am. Webcast Link 07:46 EDT ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported Week of 5/11 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales up 1.2% for the year 07:46 EDT ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported Subscribe for More Information 07:35 EDT Philly Fed hawk Plosser said the Fed risks credibility Philly Fed hawk Plosser said the Fed risks credibility if it fails to reduce asset purchases given the better labor market in a panel discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy from Stockholm, Sweden, earlier. He also warned against failing to adjust policy due to concerns over disappointing or surprising the markets, noting that present labor market conditions warrant scaling back purchases from the June FOMC meeting. On the other hand, the Fed might need to take easing action if inflation expectations begin to fall, though this is not anticipated. Plosser is a non-voter and is among the most hawkish at the Fed, however, this does slot into the current debate on QE tapering, though other more dovish colleagues may not yet be ready to scale back. 07:32 EDT The SEC to host a roundtable Credit Ratings Roundtable is being held at SEC Washington, D.C. headquarters on May 14 at 9 am. Webcast Link 07:26 EDT Futures lower in early trading Subscribe for More Information 07:25 EDT Deutsche Bank to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:20 EDT Imperial Capital to host a summit 5th Annual Consumer Summit is being held in Santa Monica on May 14. 07:14 EDT HMG Strategy to host a summit Subscribe for More Information 07:11 EDT Fed’s Plosser: Slowing inflation doesn't need policy response, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 07:10 EDT Investors more selective about Southeast Asian stocks, bonds, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 06:58 EDT New issues complicating U.S.-EU free trade talks, Washington Post says Subscribe for More Information 06:36 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 14 Subscribe for More Information 06:29 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 12.55, 10-day moving average is 13.08 CBOE Volatility Index VIX 50-day moving average is 13.39. 06:27 EDT May front month equity options expire, May 17, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 06:00 EDT Nymex crude traded close to $95 bbl Subscribe for More Information 05:00 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY maintained a heavier tone Subscribe for More Information 01:00 EDT Asian stocks were mixed Asian stocks were mixed. U.S. stocks closed unchanged, which offered a limited lead for Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex Japan held around flat. USD-JPY's pullback from over 102.00 to the 101.35 region restricted Japan's Nikkei and it was just 0.1% higher on the session on profit taking. The SSEC fell sharply and was 1.6% lower by the afternoon session as domestic investors continue to worry over the economic outlook after yesterday's mixed domestic data. The Kospi overcame some of its recent weakness as car makers and electrical companies bounced back leaving the benchmark index 0.7% higher. The Hang Seng was 0.1% weaker, while the ASX was up just 0.2% as mining stocks capped gains. May 13, 2013 16:20 EDT U.S. trade price preview: Subscribe for More Information 15:25 EDT Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury Closing Summary: Mixed form on global stocks allowed Treasury yields to drift back down from highs initially on Monday before bottom-fishers were caught slightly offsides by the better than expected Apr retail sales reading. The headline sales gain wasn't that impressive, however, though above low median forecasts. Fixation on the Fed's QE exit strategy was amplified by a WSJ Fedwatcher piece, however, that leaned heavily toward Fed VC Yellen taking over the great bond unwind after Bernanke, though she's even more dovish. Stocks rebounded from lows, but didn't really make much forward progress, while the dollar stalled out as well. 14:50 EDT Treasury Action: yields have held steady through the afternoon Subscribe for More Information 14:40 EDT Beware Volatile Bond-Market Mood Subscribe for More Information 14:05 EDT Averages mixed, as Dow remains in negative territory The major equity indices are mixed, with the Nasdaq nearly unchanged and the S&P 500 down by less than 2 points. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by almost 3:2 and down volume is only slightly ahead of up volume. Crude oil prices are lower by 0.6% and gold is down just 0.1%. The Dow is down 54 points, the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged, and the S&P is down 1 point. 14:05 EDT Treasury Option Action: heavy bearish put liquidation Subscribe for More Information 13:20 EDT SF Fed research on the labor force participation rate Subscribe for More Information 13:15 EDT U.S. equities have backed up to session highs Subscribe for More Information 12:30 EDT U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is on the light side today Subscribe for More Information 11:55 EDT Treasury's $53 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was a solid Subscribe for More Information 11:50 EDT Fed Chairman Bernanke slated to testify on May 22 before the JEC Fed Chairman Bernanke slated to testify on May 22 before the JEC. This will be a much anticipated event considering the Hilsenrath story that the FOMC has mapped out an exit strategy, though the timing of such is still much debated. It's not obvious, though, that the Fed chief will be able to drop clear indications on the latter, as much is still dependent on economic conditions. 11:37 EDT Some in Congress want to eliminate Iran's energy exports, Washington Post says Some members of Congress are proposing completely preventing Iranian gas and oil from being sold on world markets, according to The Washington Post. The Obama administration is against taking such a step, but is looking at ways of reducing the amount of oil that Iran sells, the newspaper added. Reference Link 11:30 EDT FX Action: USD-CAD found support into 1.0080 FX Action: USD-CAD found support into 1.0080, after tripping stops under 1.0100 earlier. Noted bids into 1.0070 have supported to date, while London short covering and softer equity and commodity prices have resulted in a move back over 1.0100. Offers are in place from 1.0140. 11:10 EDT Treasury announcd a $20 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday Subscribe for More Information 10:55 EDT Euro$ interest rate futures are fairly flat Euro$ interest rate futures are fairly flat with equities giving little away today in directional terms, the data not really that compelling, the WSJ Fed tapering story interesting on Yellen Chairwomanship but purely speculative on policy. With all this ambiguity, why wouldn't the Jun 2013 contract be flat at 99.725, while the deferreds area flat to a half-tick lower? 3-mont dollar Libor was fixed at unchanged vs 0.2751% on Friday, while the Libor-OIS spread widened a bp to +15 bp. 10:54 EDT Leerink's biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:53 EDT Leerink's biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:50 EDT Today's U.S. reports Today's U.S. reports revealed upside retail sales surprises through April with a big April decline in the price-sensitive gasoline component that left a particularly firm "real" trajectory into Q2, hence adding upside risk to our 2.0% Q2 GDP growth forecast. Yet, business inventories undershot assumptions in both February and March, and this disappointment eliminated our prior assumption of a boost in the 2.5% "advance" Q1 GDP growth estimate. For Q1 GDP revisions, analysts now expect downward bumps of $11 B in inventories and $9 B in construction that offset upward revisions of $16 B in net exports, $3 B in equipment and software, and $2 B in consumption. 10:49 EDT Leerink's biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:46 EDT Leerink's biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Biotech Analysts provide a preview on ASCO's upcoming Annual Meeting with a focus on Lymphoma on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 21 at 12 pm. 10:44 EDT Leerink's biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:28 EDT Jefferies' U.S. industrials research team holds a conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT Another Gross Tweet from PIMCO: Subscribe for More Information 10:25 EDT U.S. business inventories undershot estimates Subscribe for More Information 10:15 EDT Treasury Action: yields are off earlier highs Subscribe for More Information 10:13 EDT ISI Group's pharma/biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:11 EDT Morgan Stanley's macroeconomics analysts hold a conference call Subscribe for More Information 10:08 EDT DA Davidson's financial services analysts hold analyst/industry conference call Financial Services Analysts Rulis and Tenner discuss the recently held DA Davidson's 15th Annual Financial Services Conference on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 13 at 11 am. 10:06 EDT Barclays' healthcare analyst team holds an analyst/industry conference call Healthcare Analyst Research Team provides an industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 13 at 10:30 am. 10:05 EDT U.S. retail sales beat assumptions in April Subscribe for More Information 10:00 EDT Business Inventories data reported March Business Inventories up 0.0% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month 10:00 EDT Averages begin week lower despite retail sales data Subscribe for More Information 09:50 EDT WSJ Hilsenrath also profiled Fed VC Janet Yellen WSJ Hilsenrath also profiled Fed VC Janet Yellen and touted her as the possible successor to Chairman Bernanke. A long time employee at the Fed, starting as a staffer in 1977, then SF Fed President, and now Fed VC, she is one of the most qualified to take over. She is also one of the most dovish on the Committee. If she were to assume the helm, that could damp somewhat the aggressiveness of the stimulus unwind. Also of interest is her husband, Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, who is "skeptical of markets," noting in a speech last year that "the public and economists have too great an acceptance that whatever markets do is right." If she also ascribes strongly to that view, she's likely to disregard the any ups and downs in prices and maintain a more dovish stance longer than the markets anticipate. 09:40 EDT U.S. Vehicle Assemblies continue to track slightly above expectations U.S. Vehicle Assemblies continue to track slightly above expectations in the first week of May given data from AutoNews. May light vehicle sales are expected to rise to 15.4 M units from 15.2 M in April. Expectations are for a 0.1% April industrial production decline after a 0.4% rise in March. There was an Empire State plunge to 3.1 from 9.2 in March, while analysts saw a decrease in the Philly Fed to 1.3 from 2.0 in March. Meanwhile, there was an April ISM tally of 50.7 from 51.3 in March, alongside a Chicago ISM fall to 49.0 from 52.4. The initial claims pattern has returned to trend levels, while analysts saw nonfarm payroll gains in April of 165k total and 176k for the private component, with expected May gains of 165k and 180k. 09:35 EDT U.S. Business Inventories Preview Subscribe for More Information 09:33 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX is recently down1c to 12.58 09:15 EDT Jefferies glass analyst research team holds an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 09:10 EDT U.S. equities trimmed pre-open losses U.S. equities trimmed pre-open losses following the better than expected retail sales print in Apr, though this was relative to very low expectations and the ex-gasoline gain was 0.7%, implying firmer underlying consumer spending that should prove supportive to growth. Stocks had been a tad anxious over more Fed tapering stories, this time on the topic of a Bernanke's potential replacement in Janet Yellen in the WSJ. They had also been disappointed over Chinese data. In Asia, the N-225 rose 1.20% thanks to a dollar probe over Y102 after no G7 complaint, while the Shanghai Comp in China fell 0.22% after missing data targets on output and investment. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.35%, with shallow losses across most of the rest of the region, led by -1.3% in Italy. The Dow is 15-points lower, S&P fell 2-points and NASDAQ is 3-points lower, though "fair value" adjustments may push these into the green at the open. In corporate activity, SoftBank reportedly snubbed banks for its upcoming IPO who took part in rival DISH's $25 B bid for Sprint Nextel. Yum Brands reported a 29% dive in China sales due to bird flu. Elan paid $1 B for Theravance royalties from Glaxo. Business inventories are due next. 09:08 EDT Citigroup's chemicals and agriculture analyst holds a conference call Subscribe for More Information 09:05 EDT WSJ's Hilsenrath indicated the Fed has mapped out an exit strategy Subscribe for More Information 09:00 EDT FX Action: The dollar rallied for a few moments Subscribe for More Information 08:55 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY options are expected to influence Subscribe for More Information 08:40 EDT U.S. retail sales rebounded 0.1% in April, but was down 0.1% excluding autos U.S. retail sales rebounded 0.1% in April, but was down 0.1% excluding autos. March's 0.4% headline decline was revised down slightly to -0.5% from -0.4%, while February's 1.0% gain was revised to 1.1%. The 0.4% decline in ex-autos from March was not revised. But the 1.0% February gain was boosted to 1.1%. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials rose 0.6% versus unchanged in March (revised from -0.2%). Vehicle and parts sales rebounded 1.0%. Gas station sales dropped 4.7%. Building materials climbed 1.5%. Furniture sales were flat. Electronics sales edged up 0.8%. Clothing rose 1.2%. Non-store retailers were up 1.4%. Miscellaneous sales inched up 0.1%. Sales were better than expected. 08:40 EDT Treasury Action: yields rebounded to highs Subscribe for More Information 08:34 EDT Futures remain lower ahead of open Subscribe for More Information 08:32 EDT Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas data reported April Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas up 0.6% vs. consensus of 0.4% for the month 08:32 EDT Retail Sales less autos data reported Subscribe for More Information 08:32 EDT Retail Sales data reported April Retail Sales up 0.1% vs consensus of -0.3% for the month 08:20 EDT U.S. Retail Sales Preview U.S. Retail Sales Preview: April retail sales are expected to reveal further declines. Analysts expect the headline to decline by 0.4% (median -0.3%) with the ex-autos figure falling by -0.4% (median -0.1%) as well. Both measures were also down by 0.4% in March as well. 08:15 EDT Fed funds opened at 0.13% Subscribe for More Information 08:10 EDT Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are unwinding overnight gains Subscribe for More Information 08:00 EDT Citigroup's managed care analysts holds an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:55 EDT Deutsche Bank's energy economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:52 EDT Jefferies' energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:49 EDT Credit Suisse's macroeconomics research team holds a conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:47 EDT JPMorgan's small cap analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call Subscribe for More Information 07:38 EDT Imperial Capital to host a summit Subscribe for More Information 07:36 EDT UBS to host a conference Subscribe for More Information 07:35 EDT Standard & Poor's to host a webcast Quarterly Teleconference U.S. Banking Sector webcast will be held on May 13 at 11 am. Webcast Link 07:25 EDT Futures slightly lower in early trading U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open. There is little news for investors to key in on, as earnings season is nearly over and most bellwether companies have already reported their results. Investors will be examining several pieces of economic data, however. Advance retail sales figures are due out at 8:30 am ET, and analysts are expecting to see a drop of 0.3%. Analysts expect a drop of 0.2% excluding autos. Due out after the market opens are business inventories for March. 07:21 EDT Longview Solutions to host a conference 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference is being held in Atlanta, Georgia on May 13-16. 07:10 EDT Bond sales to decline for first time since 2010, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 07:09 EDT China's April factory output misses expectations, Reuters reports Subscribe for More Information 07:09 EDT Nikkei jumps tot 5 1/2-year high, Reuters reports Japan's Nikkei share average surged to a new 5-1/2-year high today as the weakening yen further bolstered exporters, while brokerage shares attracted buyers who see growing volume bringing in much more fee income, reports Reuters.Reference Link 07:09 EDT IPOs look to raise most money since 2007, WSJ reports U.S. companies are on track to raise the most money through IPOs since before the financial crisis, driven by the same thirst for risk among investors that has pushed the stock market to new highs. Already this year, 64 U.S.-listed public offerings have raised $16.8B, according to Dealogic, reports the Wall Street Journal.Reference Link 06:54 EDT China becoming more involved in U.S. auto sector, NY Times says Subscribe for More Information 06:24 EDT May front month equity options expire, May 17, 2013 Subscribe for More Information 06:22 EDT CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed at 12.59, 10-day moving average is 13.20 Subscribe for More Information 06:21 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 13 Subscribe for More Information 06:09 EDT Europe, pressured by U.S., focused on economic growth, Bloomberg reports Subscribe for More Information 06:00 EDT Nymex crude moved back below $95 bbl, leaving it just over Nymex crude moved back below $95 bbl, leaving it just over 1% lower on the session. The underlying dollar bid tone weighed on the commodity market complex, while China industrial production also acted as a negative lead. China industrial production data improved in April, but it was a bit below expectations at 9.3% y/y. China data over the last month has fueled a mixed opinion on the state of the economy and there is some nervousness over the demand outlook. Fed policy was also back in focus after WSJ's Hilsenrath suggested that the Fed had mapped out a policy exit, but was still uncertain on the timing. Recent data strength and more upside improved could see tapering of QE toward the latter part of the year. With this in mind, nominal gold headed back to $1427 from $1449.70 at the Asia pacific open, which compared with $1421.75 lows on Friday. 05:48 EDT Markets focused on strength of dollar, WSJ reports Subscribe for More Information 03:45 EDT FX Action: USD-JPY corrected from fresh trend highs Subscribe for More Information May 12, 2013 13:59 EDT Fed has a strategy for ending stimulus, WSJ says Subscribe for More Information << 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >> Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing.