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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 4, 2015
16:22 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:22 EDTWeek of 8/15 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD printed the 1.32 handle
FX Action: USD-CAD printed the 1.32 handle, peaking at 1.3202, and following the greenback broadly higher after hawkish Fedspeak (see our 13:52 ET alert). Option offers and intra day profit taking reportedly stopped the rise, though with 1.32 now out of the barn, further gains will be easier on Wednesday, depending on how data and commodities play out.
14:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures took a hit
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14:19 EDTMarket moves to session lows
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14:15 EDTCanada Trade Preview
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14:00 EDTFed's Lockhart says there is a "high bar right now to not acting" on rates
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped to attention after Lockhart
Treasury Action: yields snapped to attention after Lockhart turned hawkish and said in a WSJ interview that "it would take a significant deterioration in the economic picture" for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. The Atlanta Fed president has generally been more on the fence as a moderately dovish former hawk, so this caught the bond market on the hop. The T-note yield popped back over 2.20% to session highs after clearing out the 2.17% pivot earlier and basing near 2.14% yesterday. That's spawned some renewed bearish curve flattening, however, as the 2-year yield jumped from 0.68% to clear 0.72% and the 2s-10s spread slipped back to +148 bp as a result from the +150 bp area.
13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is hovering just under 1.3150
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13:40 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has been relatively quiet
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has been relatively quiet through the session, topping out at $46.22, and putting in a floor at $45.64. Short covering following yesterday's sharp losses has been the main supportive factor today, though once this runs its course, many look for a near term test of the key $45 level. RBOB gasoline hovers just above $1.68/gallon, just a penny above Monday's five-month low, while natural gas rallied to four-session highs of $2.79/M BTU on warmer U.S. temperature forecasts for the remainder of the week.
12:55 EDTFX Action: Not a lot to say about USD-JPY
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12:55 EDTU.S. equities are above earlier lows
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12:40 EDTTreasury Action: the August refunding announcement is on tap
Treasury Action: the August refunding announcement is on tap Wednesday morning. Analysts don't expect any surprises in terms of current issuance or the future auction cycle. The refunding should include a $24 B 3-year note, a $24 B 10-year, and a $16 B 30-year, all sizes unchanged from quarterly issuance since November 2014. The auctions are slated for next Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Monday the debt managers announced a $127 B financing need for this quarter, revised up from $66 B projected last quarter due to the higher September 30 cash balance assumed (now $225 B versus $175 B previously). Q4 borrowing is estimated at $270 B with a December 31 cash balance of $275 B. Remember the Treasury changed its cash balance policy a year ago, deciding to hold substantially higher balances given the cash flow difficulties involved with events like 911 and Superstorm Sandy.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill sale was mundane
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11:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning in bonds
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10:35 EDTToday's U.S. factory goods figures
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: bonds stumbled out the gate today
Treasury Action: bonds stumbled out the gate today amid weakness in European sovereigns. Profit taking on overbought conditions following strong month-end buying on Friday helped pace the declines, especially as the July employment report looms. Unwinding of flattening trades is also weighing a bit on the long end, where the 10-year rate is over 3 bps higher at 2.18%, with the 30-year yield up 3 bps to 2.88%. The advent of the May refunding next week is also pressuring. The 2s-10s spread has widened 2 bps to 150 bps after compressing to 148 bps Monday, the narrowest since May 27. The spread was as wide as 178 bps on July 13. Curve flattening has been in vogue since mid-July amid tame inflation expectations on the back of the rout in commodity pries, and on expectations of Fed tightening outlooks for September.
10:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar faded
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10:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: some downside positioning
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10:15 EDTU.S. factory orders climbed 1.8% in June
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their rise
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been steady
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10:01 EDTAverages quiet in early trading
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10:00 EDTNY ISM current index improved to 68.8 in July
NY ISM current index improved to 68.8 in July after jumping to 63.1 in June from May's 54.0. That's the highest level since hitting 70.8 last December, and the index has held at 50.0 or above since rebounding from 44.5 in January. The employment component inched up to 64.8 from 63.4 previously. Prices paid fell to 50.0 from 56.3, with prices received at 56.3 from 57.1. The numbers are anticlimactic since the national ISMs have already been reported.
09:50 EDTU.S. Treasury Receipts Climb 7% in July:
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09:45 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
U.S. Factory Goods Preview: June factory data is forecast to rise 2.0% (median 1.7%) for new orders on the month. Sales are expected to be up 0.5% with inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective May figures of -0.9%, -0.1% and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.35 from April. The already released durable goods data had orders up 3.4% for the month with sales up 0.1% and inventories 0.4%.
09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures eased
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09:10 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:08 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee holds meeting
Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee Meeting is being held at the FCC Washington, D.C. offices on August 4 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are back under pressure
U.S. equities are back under pressure with mixed signals from global markets and still wallowing in the summer doldrums ahead of Friday's payrolls report, with mainly factory orders data on tap today. The Dow is 13-points lower, S&P sank 3-points and NASDAQ is off 9-points ahead of the opening bell, above earlier lows. China continued to prop up its home markets, as the Shenzhen closed 3.1% higher and the Shanghai Comp rallied 3.6%, but that proved a false signal with Europe mostly lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.6% lower and Athens sank another 2.6% after Greek regulators took a page out of China's investor handbook (which banned borrowing and repaying stocks on the same day) and banned short-selling through the end of August. In M&A, Baxalta ramped 30% higher after a $30 B bid from Shire of the UK. Both Regeneron and Coach beat and rallied, while Sprint sank after a sales miss and new CFO. Following a 20% correction on Apple this year and commodity prices still beaten down, focus will shift to Disney earnings for hope after the close.
08:30 EDTGallup US ECI level data reported
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered
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08:10 EDTU.S. weekly chain store sales dipped 0.5% in the week ended August 1
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08:02 EDTFederal Reserve Board to co-host a meeting
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower, largely tracking action in European bonds. Earlier gains from Asian trading have been pared with the 10-year rate edging up to 2.16% from 2.14% earlier. Trading volume was moderate. Stocks are mostly lower on the commodity rout, though Chinese shares bucked the trend. Greek equities continued lower. In overnight news, data showed a 2.2% y/y drop in EMU PPI, mostly due to weakness in energy. UK construction PMI unexpectedly declined. The RBA left policy unchanged but left a less dovish statement. While traders are anxiously await the July employment report (Friday), they'll look to upcoming data on June factory goods orders, the July NY ISM index and weekly chain store sales today. There's also plenty of earnings news, including Disney, ADM, Time Inc, Charter Communications, Liberty Global, Coach, and Kellogg.
08:00 EDTSigns of stability in core inflation should comfort Fed:
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:43 EDTFutures lower in early trading
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed
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06:55 EDTBoJ adviser Honda sees no need for additional stimulus
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 4
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06:00 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 15.78, 10-day moving average 16.37
05:45 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The big mover today was the AUD,
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August 3, 2015
15:53 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:53 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:53 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:45 EDTFed's Senior Loan Officer Survey showed some easing in standards
Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey showed some easing in standards to households in Q2, mostly for residential mortgages, but no change in standards and terms on consumer loans (see the Fed's report). There was little change in terms on commercial loans. On the demand side, a modest net fraction of banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans, as well as for commercial real estate (CRE). Of interest, banks' lending standards relative to longer term norms were notably different across major loan types, with standards for all categories of C&I loans either easier than or near the midpoints of their ranges over the past decade. But despite shifts toward somewhat more accommodative credit policies, moderate fractions of banks continued to report that the levels of standards for all types of residential real estate (RRE) loans and consumer loans to subprime borrowers were at least somewhat tighter than the midpoints of the longer-term ranges.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:15 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
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14:05 EDTU.S. equities losses have deepened
U.S. equities losses have deepened as the session rolled on, led by the deflation trade as oil and commodity prices continue to sink, weighing especially hard on the energy and industrial sectors, though airlines received a corresponding boost and defensive utilities are higher. The Dow is pacing the slide with a 1% drop, followed by the S&P and NASDAQ, which are trading about 0.5-0.6% lower. The S&P 500 tested its 50% July retrace level of 2,088 before finding some support, after opening below the 2,100 psych area. It is also through its 100-day m.a. at 2,096.7 and eying the 200-day m.a. at 2,069.4. The VIX volatility index is 10% higher near 13.30 compared to 12.3 session lows. Worst performers in the Dow are Chevron -3.4%, Apple -2.4% and IBM -2.3%, while top dogs Wal-Mart, Coke and Disney (ahead of earnings) are all up marginally 0.3-0.4%.
13:40 EDTAnalysts lifted our estimated U.S. Q2 GDP boost to 2.9%
Analysts lifted our estimated U.S. Q2 GDP boost to 2.9% from 2.8%, versus the 2.3% rise reported in last week's advance report, based on surprisingly pessimistic assumptions from the BEA revealed in today's Key Source data. The BEA assumes a sharp widening in the June trade deficit to -$43.6 B from a $41.9 B gap in May. Analysts will cautiously assume a June widening as well, but "only" to a -$42.6 B gap, which would add $4 B to Q2 GDP. Today's solid construction spending figures implied additional Q2 boosts of $10 B for public construction, $5 B for nonresidential construction, and $2 B for residential construction. Today's firm auto sales figures imply additional upside risk to our 3.0% Q3 GDP estimate with a 2.5% growth clip for real consumption.
13:19 EDTS&P revises EU supranational outlook to Negative from Stable
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13:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade in belly
Treasury Option Action: mixed trade in belly included a bullish purchase of 8k in week 1 120/120.25 call 1x2s, a 2k purchase of week 1 119.75 puts vs sale of 2k in September 119.25 put spreads, and a bearish buyer of 1.5k in September 119.5/119.25 put spreads all vs 5-year futures. September 5s are 6.2-ticks firmer near 120-012 compared to their 120-017 to 119-237 range. Stocks and yields continue to roll over lower, led by energy and industrials.
13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains under pressure
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12:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has fallen off a cliff
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12:15 EDTTreasury Action: flattening continues to tip curve lower
Treasury Action: flattening continues to tip curve lower particularly at the long-end, which is pacing the move even as short yields continue to lag behind. From opening levels the cash bond yield has slumped over 5 basis points to ease under 2.88%, while the T-note yield is nearly 4 basis points lower and probing under 2.17% July lows (late May lows of 2.09% next). The 5-year is 3 basis points lower near 1.51%, but the 2-year yield is only 1 basis point down near 0.66%, with a Fed hike still seen somewhere on the 2015 horizon. The 2s-10s spread is probing +150 bp again, while the 5s-30s spread is near +135 bp.
11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY gave up the 124 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY gave up the 124 handle, though quickly found support into its 123.92 lows. The pairing continues to ply a 123.00 to 124.50 trading range, and without fresh impetus from the Fed rate hike) or the BoJ (further stimulus), more of the same appears to be in the cards for the foreseeable future.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill offering results were average to light
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11:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: a few standouts emerged
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11:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Celgene's 5-tranche deal kicks off the August
U.S. corporate bond update: Celgene's 5-tranche deal kicks off the August calendar. Sources estimate the week's offerings will total around $20 B to $25 B. Celgene's sale includes benchmark sized 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year maturities. Also today is a $550 M 2-parter from Kimberly-Clark, and includes 5- and 10-year paper. JB Hunt Transport Services launched a $350 M 7-year. New York Life also has a $350 M 1-year FRN. Last month there were 78 issuers, with volume totaling $161 B, the 3rd highest volume for 2015 to date. For the year, issuance totals $1.03 tln.
11:20 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday, maintaining that volume foe a 3rd straight week, down from $45 B previously. This is a light week for supply with just bills, though the debt managers will announce the August refunding details, including 3-, 10-, and 30-year auction details, on Wednesday.
11:10 EDTFed Governor Powell said the increase in electronic trading
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11:10 EDTToday's heavy slate of U.S. data
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10:35 EDTCitadel's Shanghai Trading unit in China was suspended
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10:35 EDTThe 0.1% U.S. June construction spending rise
The 0.1% U.S. June construction spending rise looked tame, but it followed large upward revisions for April and May that were spread across the public, nonresidential, and residential construction spending components to leave a much stronger than expected report overall. The mix implies a hefty boost in Q2 GDP growth to 2.8% from 2.3%, and the revisions even included additional boosts for the home improvement residual that don't enter the GDP calculation. The Q2 GDP boost includes big hikes of $10 B for public construction, $5 B for nonresidential construction, and $2 B for residential construction. Analysts expect Q3 GDP growth of 3.0% with a flat pace for nonresidential construction that is still restrained by mining sector weakness, after an estimated 2.8% (was -1.6%) Q2 figure and a 7.4% contraction rate in Q1. Analysts expect 8% growth in Q3 real residential construction after rates of 8.3% (was 6.6%) in Q2 and 10.1% in Q1. Growth in real government purchases is pegged at 0.7% in Q3, following an estimated 2.2% (was 0.8%) rise in Q2 and a 0.1% contraction rate in Q1.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed July lows
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off the construction spending data, which came in under expectations, though upwardly revised back data oddest. EUR-USD is steady near 1.0970, while USD-JPY hangs on to the 124 handle by its fingernails. Yields are on session lows, while stocks are mixed, though under some pressure following the softer ISM print earlier.
10:10 EDTU.S. construction spending edged up 0.1% in June
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made 1.3176, 11-year highs
FX Action: USD-CAD made 1.3176, 11-year highs overnight, as commodity prices continued their slide. WTI crude has traded the $45 handle for the first time in over four-months, as copper prices touched over six-year lows near $2.32/lb. With Canada on holiday today, liquidity could be an issue, with further commodity deterioration liable to bring the 1.3200 mark into focus.
10:00 EDTThe U.S. ISM July drop to 52.7
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09:55 EDTU.S. construction spending preview:
U.S. construction spending preview: Construction spending is expected to grow 0.2% in June (median 0.6%) following a 0.8% gain in May. Forecast risk is upward, however, as housing data improved in June, while total construction is currently 37% above the bottom in February of 2011. For more detail, see our full construction spending preview.
09:55 EDTU.S. Auto Sales preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit ISM manufacturing index inched up to 53.8 in July
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09:52 EDTDows slips in early trading after quiet open to start August
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09:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped on the ISM drop
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09:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled back
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09:30 EDTU.S. ISM fell to 52.7 in July from 53.5
U.S. ISM fell to 52.7 in July from 53.5, weaker than expected. The employment component dropped to 52.7 versus 55.5. Prices paid also declined, sliding to 44.0 from 49.5. The softer data should support recent gains in bonds as the September Fed rate hike is in doubt.
09:25 EDTU.S. equities are set for a subdued open
U.S. equities are set for a subdued open to kick off the month of August despite some fireworks overseas with more trouble in mainland China and Greek stocks reopening with the large haircut that debt holders have yet to take. Personal income data was not a deal breaker in terms of a Fed hike in September, but after weak ECI on Friday WSJ points out that the Fed could be back on the fence. The Dow is 20-points firmer, S&P is a point higher and NASDAQ is up 3-points in pre-open trade. In China, the Shanghai Comp fell 1.1% after a PMI sank to a 2-year low, while Japan's N-225 fell 0.18%. In Europe, Athens recovered to -15% after opening some 22% lower, though the broader Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.0% higher. Focus will be on another rash of earnings reports after the close, along with the next round of ISM, construction and auto sales reports.
09:24 EDTISM manufacturing index for July reported at 52.7
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. June income and consumption gains of 0.4% and 0.2%
The U.S. June income and consumption gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively beat estimates, though with undershoots in April-May, and three-years of revisions from last week's Q2 GDP report that sharply lowered recent levels for disposable income and real consumption with smaller downward revisions in personal income and nominal consumption. A result was a recent lowering of the savings rate and a lift in the chain price index. Though the savings rate rose in June, to 4.8%, this followed big downward revisions that left a smaller savings rate rise in 2015. Our Q3 GDP estimate was left at 3.0%, but our "real" consumption growth forecast was raised to 2.6% (was 2.5%) with a 4.4% (was 4.0%) nominal clip. Analysts expect respectable Q3 growth of 4.8% for personal income and 4.6% for disposable income, after smaller respective Q2 rates of 3.9% (was 4.4%) and 3.7% (was 4.1%). The annual revisions revealed a sharp hike in personal current tax payments since the expiration of the "Bush tax cuts" in January of 2013, and a more recent steep climb in tax payments in 2015, leaving a larger headwind for GDP growth than previously indicated.
09:10 EDTFurther Gains for U.S. Payrolls in July:
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09:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
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08:55 EDTFed doesn't demand wage growth before hiking rates
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields held above lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar reacted positively
FX Action: The dollar reacted positively to the better June income print, and in-line consumption data, though downwardly revised May data saw USD gains reverse quickly. EUR-USD fell to intra day lows of 1.0942 from over 1.0955, though is back again to pre-data levels, while USD-JPY rallied to 124.27 from 124.20. Equity futures are mixed, while yields are steady above lows.
08:41 EDTFutures still quiet after personal income, spending reports
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08:40 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.4% in June with spending up 0.2%
U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in June with spending up 0.2%, a little better than forecast. But May's 0.5% income gain was revised down to 0.4%, while the 0.9% spending gain was nudged down to 0.7% so it was basically a wash (note benchmark revisions were included today). For income details, compensation was up 0.2% following a 0.4% May gain. Wages and salaries increased 0.2% also, versus 0.4% previously (revised from 0.5%). Disposable income increased 0.5% versus 0.4% previously (revised from 0.5%). The savings rate rose to 4.8% versus 4.6% previously (revised from 5.1%). The PCE chain price index was up 0.2% compared to the 0.3% increase in May, while the core rate was up 0.1%, the same as for April and May.
08:31 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 09:00
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08:31 EDTGallup US Consumer Spending Measure level data reported
July Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure level at $91
08:31 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 12:25
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08:20 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
U.S. Personal Income Preview: June personal income data should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase for the month with consumption unchanged (median 0.2%). This follows respective May figures of 0.5% and 0.9%.
07:53 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are opening August on the back foot
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are opening August on the back foot amid selling from fast money accounts and unwinding of month-end demand. The front end of the curve is underperforming modestly. The 2-year yield rose over 2 bps to 0.688% with the 2s-10s flattening to the 150 bp area. UK Gilts are the laggards among core sovereigns after July PMI beat expectations. Also note, the BoE meets this week and also will be publishing simultaneously the meeting's minutes and its Quarterly Inflation Report. Greek stock markets plunged as the market reopened. It's a big week for the U.S. with the July employment report on Friday. Today's slate has June personal income, July ISM, vehicle sales, and construction spending. There's a lot more earnings news today and over the week, with media giants highlighting.
07:36 EDTFSXInterlinked to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTFutures quiet to begin data-filled week
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The Canadian dollar was the biggest mover
FX Update: The Canadian dollar was the biggest mover today, which dove to major-trend lows as oil prices posted new declines. USD-CAD rallied to an 11-year at 1.3176, concomitantly with front-month NYMEX crude, which fell to a near five-month lows under $46.30. Elsewhere, most of the major dollar pairings remained within recent ranges. EUR-USD settled in the mid-to-upper 1.09s in the wake of Friday's short-lived surge to 1.1113 on the weak ECI out of the U.S. The final reading of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July was confirmed at 51.5, causing little market impact. USD-JPY has oscillated on either side of 124.00 in early-week trade, above the 123.51 low seen on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda said over the weekend that there is no immediate need for additional monetary easing, which is the boilerplate message from policymakers of late.
06:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 3
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05:54 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
04:45 EDTFX Action: Fresh oil price declines have pushed USD-CAD higher
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar majors traded in narrow ranges
FX Update: The dollar majors traded in narrow ranges in early-week trade. EUR-USD was settled in the upper 1.09s in the wake of Friday's short-lived surge to 1.1113 on the weak ECI out of the U.S. Markets will this week continue to assess the employment cost report, which threw Fed outlooks into disarray and resulted in a hefty dip U.S. Treasury yields. A September hike had been generally priced in after the FOMC meeting, but now there are doubts. Upcoming reports will be important. The July employment release (Friday) will be the overall focal point. Income and PCE data today that will help fine tune GDP forecasts. On balance, analysts still favour the downside in EUR-USD. Elsewhere, USD-JPY has oscillated on either side of 124.00 in early-week trade, above the 123.51 low seen on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda said over the weekend that there is no immediate need for additional monetary easing, which is the boilerplate message from policymakers of late.
July 31, 2015
20:19 EDTConsumer Credit to be reported at 15:00
June Consumer Credit will be reported at 15:00 . Current consensus is $17.4B for the month
20:19 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
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20:19 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite to be reported at 10:00
July ISM Non-Mfg Index Composite will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 56.2
20:19 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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20:19 EDTPMI Services Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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20:19 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level to be reported at 08:30
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20:19 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
July ADP Employment Report employment will be reported at 08:15 . Current consensus is 210,000
20:19 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
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20:19 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:19 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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20:19 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
June Construction Spending will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.6% for the month
20:19 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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20:19 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
June Personal Income and Outlays will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
15:45 EDTFedspeak goes back into hibernation
Fedspeak goes back into hibernation after recent high profile Fed events, including the FOMC meeting and Yellen's monetary policy testimony. There is nothing official scheduled on the Fed roster next week, though impromptu remarks are possible. Next up the following week will be Atlanta Fed dovish voter Lockhart, who will be speaking before the local press club, topic unknown.
15:40 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:50 EDTU.S. Auto Sales
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13:45 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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13:45 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
U.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview: July ISM will be released Monday and analysts expect the headline to remain steady at 53.5 (median 53.8) for a second month. Other measures of producer sentiment have been mixed for the month but analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average to hold steady at 53 from June.
12:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy put selling
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12:09 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility low into Greek stock market opening on August 3
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12:00 EDTAthex says Athens Stock Exchange to reopen Aug. 3
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11:25 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility probed sub-12.0 lows
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10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some light bearish positioning
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10:25 EDTThe July Michigan sentiment drop
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved a few ticks higher
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10:08 EDTAverages mixed, S&P little changed in early trading
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: so long as the data is consistent
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI bounced to 54.7 in July
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09:40 EDTU.S. Chicago ISM preview:
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09:10 EDTThe lean 0.2% Q2 U.S. ECI rise marked a new cycle-low gain
The lean 0.2% Q2 U.S. ECI rise marked a new cycle-low gain that sharply diminished the cyclical uptrend in labor cost growth from late-2009 recession-lows. The tiny rise follows 0.5%-0.7% gains over the prior four quarters that outpaced the 0.4%-0.5% ECI gains in each of the nine quarters ending back in Q4 of 2013. Recent gains were unrevised, at 0.7% in Q1, 0.5% in Q4, 0.7% in Q2 and Q3, and a prior cycle-low 0.3% in Q1 of last year. ECI weakness in Q2 was skewed toward benefits but was evident in both the wage and benefit components. The cycle-low 0.2% wage gain sharply curtailed the steep four-quarter climb in wage growth through Q1 that seemed at odds with the assumption of continued labor market slack, while a tiny 0.1% cycle-low Q2 benefit cost rise reversed the upward tilt that appeared to be emerging after the 1.1% spike in Q2 of last year. Benefit costs climbed sharply back in 2010-11, but then moderated over the 2012-2013 period, and the upward tilt since then is now quite modest.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities recovered some lost ground
U.S. equities recovered some lost ground despite a lackluster session overnight on global bourses amid fresh declines in commodity prices and oil, with mostly second-tier data on tap. But Q2 ECI was very muted on all counts and alone certainly won't provoke the Fed into any rushed move on rates, which allowed stocks to bubble back up from negative territory. Ahead of the opening bell the Dow is still 12-points lower, but S&P is up 2-points and NASDAQ is 6-points higher. This followed a muted session in Asia, with China's Shenzhen fractionally higher, the Shanghai Comp 1.13% lower and the Nikkei 225 up 0.3%, while over in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.2% lower and the German DAX is flat. In earnings news, Exxon posted its lowest profit since 2009 as net income was cut in half to $4.19 B from $8.78 B in a big miss, while CEO Tillerson predicted that oversupply and depressed prices will remain in place for a couple more years. Chevron missed by a big margin as well, as did LinkedIn after costs relating to its Lynda.com merger, falling 6%. Expedia ralled 8% after a beat.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD knee-jerked higher
FX Action: USD-CAD knee-jerked higher on the Canada GDP miss, though with the market generally seen as well long going into the data, profit taking immediately stepped in. The pairing bounced to 1.3099 highs from 1.3045, before falling to 1.2995 lows. The rebound in oil and gold prices after the weaker U.S. ECI data, and the subsequent fall in the greenback more broadly, has also been CAD positive.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a dive on headline ECI
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:43 EDTFutures still suggest flat open for market
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08:40 EDTU.S. ECI rose only 0.2% in Q2
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08:31 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI data reported
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08:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD firmed up over 1.3060
FX Action: USD-CAD firmed up over 1.3060 into the open, supported by another session of commodity weakness overnight. WTI crude fell back under $47.50, as gold prices approach the 5-plus year lows seen last week, basing at $1.070.30. Copper prices meanwhile, are within a hair of their six-year low, trading under $2.36/lb. The 8:30 EDT release of Canada May GDP data has brought some USD-CAD buying to bear as well, with many looking for a sub-forecast outcome. Further growth deterioration will increase the odds of another BoC rate cut.
08:10 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude extended losses
Energy Action: NYMEX crude extended losses overnight, falling to $47.42 lows, and down from highs of $49.46 posted on Thursday. Further strength in the dollar, along with comments from OPEC's secretary general, who according to Reuters, implied no OPEC production cuts were coming anytime soon, weighed on prices. A break of Wednesday's low of $47.39 will bring Tuesday's four-month base of $46.68 back into focus. RBOB gasoline futures remain neat their trend lows at $1.77/gallon, as natural gas futures retreat from near $2.90/M BTU to $2.76, as recently hot U.S. temperatures are expected to abate.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed, though better buying was generally reported. Trading volume was on the strong side too. The 10-year popped up to 2.28% as European sovereigns erased earlier gains after the core CPI rate rose to 1.0% y/y. Yields have dipped from their highs however amid month-end demand. A heavy slate of Japanese data was mostly disappointing. In the U.S., earnings will remain important with Chevron, Exxon Mobile, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, Carrefour, Royal Caribbean, and Seagate on tap. Data includes Q2 ECI, the final July consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan survey, and the Chicago Fed PMI. The market will be looking ahead to next week's calendar that includes the key nonfarm payroll report, auto sales, manufacturing and services PMIs, income, consumption, and trade.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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06:59 EDTFutures flat as July draws to a close
Stock futures are mixed and trading near fair value as the market closes out a volatile month of trading. Investors will be poring over the multitude of earnings reports and will also receive economic data that includes the employment cost index, the Chicago purchasing managerís report, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading.
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 31
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05:48 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
02:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately softer
FX Update: The dollar has traded moderately softer, though the main pairings have remained well within the respective ranges of yesterday. EUR-USD lifted to a high of 1.0962, and USD-JPY dipped to a low of 123.90. An unexpected German retail sales number, which dove 2.3 % in June versus the Reuters median for 0.3% growth, helped put a cap on the euro. BoJ sources cited by Reuters, meanwhile, said that a weak yen is beneficial for the economy, and that the central bank is happy with a declining currency, so long as the pace remains moderate. NZD-USD ebbed, although the pair remained above its low from yesterday, on ANZ business confidence data, which dove to -15.3 from -2.3, a six-year low.
July 30, 2015
21:45 EDTJapan's CPI report showed very modest June core growth
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21:35 EDTTaiwan's GDP grew just 0.6% y/y in Q2
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21:31 EDTWeek of 8/3 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
21:31 EDTWeek of 8/12 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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17:00 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 08:30
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16:35 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:35 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
Week of 7/29 Fed Balance Sheet Level at $4.486T
16:16 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:16 EDTWeek of 8/7 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:16 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:16 EDTWeek of 8/9 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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14:25 EDTFed funds futures are increasingly pricing in rate liftoff in September
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14:20 EDTCanada May GDP Preview
Canada May GDP Preview: Analysts expect a flat reading for May GDP, due Friday, after the 0.1% drop in April. Forecast risk is to the downside given the mixed component figures during the month. An as expected flat reading would leave GDP on track for around a 1% drop in Q2, which would undershoot the BoC's -0.5% estimate from the July MPR. But that would not necessarily be a large enough miss for a quarterly annualized number to spur another rate cut.
14:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: a solid variety of flows
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13:45 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
U.S. ECI Preview: The Q2 employment cost index is out Friday and should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.6%) headline increase q/q. This follows a 0.7% increase in Q1 and a 0.5% headline in Q4. This would leave the headline up 2.4% y/y. Analysts expect wages to increase 0.6% and benefits to be up 0.8% q/q with respective y/y increases of 2.5% and 2.4%.
13:40 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields flickered higher following the 7-year
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13:15 EDTTreasury 7-year auction was on the disappointing side
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13:07 EDT7-Yr Note Auction Total Amount data reported
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12:57 EDTWeek of 8/8 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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12:57 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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12:57 EDTImport Prices data reported.
July Import Prices at % for the month.
12:55 EDTU.S. equities are split with the NASDAQ higher
U.S. equities are split with the NASDAQ higher and the blue chips lower as the tech index has about a 0.18% lead and the chips are down less than 0.1%. Europe closed marginally higher as the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.23%, but the CAC and FTSE paced gains just shy of 0.6% apiece - shrugging off the IMF board hinting at not taking part in the Greek debt deal without a haircut. Biggest movers in the Dow to the upside were UT +1.7%, Microsoft +1.1% and CAT +0.8%, while the deepest shakers on the downside were P&G -3.3% (earnings miss), UnitedHeath -1.4% and GE -0.5%. The 2.3% rebound in Q2 GDP was shy of expectations, but perhaps that was for the best in terms of the Fed outlook. Since the volume of ETF trades of $18.2 tln over the last 12-month eclipsed U.S. GDP at $17.4 tln with the S&P 500 SPY capturing a thrid of that total, perhaps analysts're watching the wrong thing, according to Bloomberg.
12:40 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview: analysts're generally constructive on the sale
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was pushed back from its 124.58 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY was pushed back from its 124.58 highs, the best since June 10, with reports of Japanese offers in place up to the 125.00 level. The Japan economic calendar is heavy tonight, where focus will be on inflation numbers in particular. A downside miss there is likely to see the yen fall further, as the chances for further BoJ stimulus increase. Analysts continue to target the June multi-year peak of 125.85.
11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call positioning in bonds
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11:20 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook: the auction should do well
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
Treasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday. The size remains unchanged. Supply lightens next week with just bills on the calendar to kick off August.
10:35 EDTBloomberg's consumer comfort index sank to a 5-month low
Bloomberg's consumer comfort index sank to a 5-month low of 40.5 for the week ended July 26 compared to 42.4 previously in a report earlier, as the personal finance subcomponent dove the most in 10-months to 54.9 from 57.8. Buying climate fell a point to 36.2, with both the poorer and wealthier camps taking the deepest hits to sentiment compared to more upbeat middle income households. In regional terms, the Northeast suffered the most since May 2014, while the West showed the only increase. The report indicated that further job gains were needed after the benefit from falling gasoline prices "ran its course", dovetailing with the July plunge in consumer confidence reported on Tuesday. This may have added to bearishness on stocks on the margin earlier, but both stocks and yields appear to be gaining traction now from lows.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending July 24
Gas inventories 52 Bcf build vs. consensus of 55 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has vaulted back over 1.3000
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10:05 EDTFed policy outlook: GDP data add to forecasts for rate liftoff in September
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09:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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09:50 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures took it on the chin
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities sank following the Q2 GDP upgrade
U.S. equities sank following the Q2 GDP upgrade as it was below expectations, though Q1 was nudged back up into the black and jobless claims rebounded from lows. On balance the data appeared to back a September Fed hike, which dented investor confidence. The Dow is 57-points lower, S&P sank 8-points and NASDAQ is 9-points lower in pre-market action. Europe is in shallow positive territory after a wide mix of data, with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.2% firmer and the UK FTSE +0.7%. Chinese stocks were again more defensive after the Shenzhen sank 2.9% and Shanghai Comp dove 2.2%, though Japan's N-225 rallied 1.0% in line with the weaker yen. In corporate news, Facebook skidded 2.3% on a drop in profits, Whole Foods dove 14% amid slowing same-store sales, but Sketchers rallied 12% on a jump in revenues. Cigna and ConocoPhillips also beat.
09:15 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims bounce to 267k
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09:05 EDTThe 2.3% Q2 GDP growth clip
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar chopped lower then higher
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08:50 EDTU.S. Q2 GDP bounced to a 2.3% growth rate
U.S. Q2 GDP bounced to a 2.3% growth rate. But Q1 was revised up to a 0.6% rate of growth, erasing the 0.2% slide in Q1. Benchmark revisions go back to 2012 and show growth of 2.1% from the end of 2011 through 2014, slower than the 2.4% pace previously. Fixed investment rose 0.8%. Meanwhile, the chain price index surged to a 2.0% clip versus a 0.1% Q1 increase (revised from unchanged previously), with the core rate now at a 1.8% pace versus 1.0% previously (revised from 0.8%).
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up with the rebound in Q2 GDP
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08:40 EDTFutures pointing to lower open following GDP data
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 12k to 267k in the week ended July 25
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08:35 EDTInternational trade in goods Balance data reported
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08:33 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude kept the bulk
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08:30 EDTBill Gross of Janus is taking aim at zombies
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08:20 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Previ
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08:10 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar rallied further overnight, following gains made in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. EUR-USD fell to 1.0943 lows in London, while USD-JPY advanced to near 124.40. Focus will be on the advance Q2 U.S. GDP report, along with weekly jobless claims, both at 8:30 EDT. Yields are a touch lower into the open, while equity futures indicate a flat Wall Street open.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are mixed
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07:25 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a webinar
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06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended post-FOMC declines
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06:20 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 30
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.25 from previous dayís SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.08%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index down 2.93%, DAX up 0.45%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.09, natural gas down 0.42%, gold at $1085 an ounce, copper down 0.54%.
05:59 EDTPetco in talks with banks for IPO, Bloomberg reports
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04:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY edged out a fresh nine-day peak
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03:01 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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03:01 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
03:01 EDT International trade in goods to be released at 08:30
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded firmer
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July 29, 2015
15:40 EDTFOMC Still Missing Ingredients for Liftoff:
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15:35 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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14:33 EDTWeek of 8/7 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a tumble
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14:15 EDTFOMC left policy on hold and repeated the economy continues to expand
FOMC left policy on hold and repeated the economy continues to expand "moderately." There were no surprises in the statement, or strong hints about what's to come in September. But the tone is be a little more upbeat than in June and certainly leaves September in play. The Fed labor market continued to improve with "solid job gains." The housing market continued to improve, though business fixed investment and net exports remained soft (as indicated in June). The inflation outlook remained the same too with the Committee still looking for price pressures to move toward the 2% target. Risks to the outlook on the economy and labor market are nearly balanced. The vote was unanimous.
14:05 EDTFed highlights 'solid' job gains, declining unemployment
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14:03 EDTFed reiterates 'balanced approach' when raising rates
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14:01 EDTFed says economic activity has been 'expanding moderately'
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14:00 EDTFederal Reserve keeps rates unchanged between 0 and 0.25%
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13:40 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Previ
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims data for the week of July 25 are out Thursday and should reveal a rebound to a 271k (median 272k) headline following last week's big dip to 255k. There has been a lot of volatility in the headlines this month as analysts move through auto retooling but the swings have largely balanced each other out as analysts discussed in our June 30 commentary.
13:15 EDTTreasury 5-year auction was "A" caliber and much better than feared
Treasury 5-year auction was "A" caliber and much better than feared. So who's afraid of the FOMC? The note stopped through at 1.625% versus 1.635% at the bid deadline (and it compares to June's 1.710%). There were $90.2 B in bids for a 2.58 cover, better than both last month's 2.39 and the 2.55 average. Indirect bidders were awarded a record high 67.5% versus the prior 56.6% (56.5% average). Direct bidders took 5.3% compared to 5.6% previously, with primary dealers taking 27.2% against June's 37.9%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields slipped
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12:30 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview: results could be on the soft side
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $15 B 2-year FRN garnered rather average results
Treasury's $15 B 2-year FRN garnered rather average results. The issue priced at a high discount margin of 0.077%, right in line with last month's 0.076% for the reopening. Bids totaled almost $59 B for a 3.93 cover, well above June's 3.74m even with the larger volume offered today. Indirect bidders took 53.3% versus the prior 56.4%.
11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to levels last seen on July 14
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11:16 EDTWeek of 8/7 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of July 24
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales fell 1.8% to 108.1 in June
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10:03 EDTSenate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation holds a hearing entitled, "Financial Crisis in Greece: Implications and Lessons Learned" on July 29 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
10:01 EDTPending Home Sales Index data reported
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: odds and ends
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09:50 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook: the auction could be difficult
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09:37 EDTMarket opens higher as investors remain on Fed watch
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09:35 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
U.S. NAR pending home sales preview: the PSHI is forecast to sink 1.4% to 111.0 in June compared to 0.9% gain to112.6 in May. That was the fourth straight month rise to the highest level in 9-years. For more background, see the NAR website.
09:34 EDTRBC Capital to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the meeting is underway
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08:55 EDTSplit decision seen for Fed on jobs and inflation:
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08:38 EDTHouse Judiciary Committee to hold a hearing
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are on the mend
U.S. equities are on the mend as China continued to bounce back, though follow-through in Europe has been lacking ahead of the FOMC decision later. Otherwise focus has been on the variety of earnings reports while awaiting that outcome. The Dow is 31-points higher, S&P rose 2-points and NASDAQ is up 5-points ahead of the opening chime. In Asia, China's Shenzhen bounced 3.1%, while the Shanghai Comp rallied 3.4% and Japan's N-225 rose just 0.28%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is flat, though the UK FTSE is up 0.7% after strong mortgage lending stats. Twitter dove 11% as its user pace slowed, while Yelp tanked 20% posted an unexpected loss, while Akamai also missed and sank 10%. Gilead Sciences climbed 4.5% after boosting its guidance. Up next are NAR pending home sales, EIA inventories and the 5-year note auction.
08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude was contained
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bond yields are mostly higher in light trading
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.8%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.8% in data released earlier, on top of a 0.1% increase in the purchase index and a 1.6% gain in the refinancing index for the week ending July 24. Troubles brewing in China took over the markets last week and helped knock yields and mortgage rates sharply lower, with the 30-year fixed rate sinking 6 basis points to 4.17% from recent highs. That helped pad the refinancing category a bit, though it didn't inspire much purchase activity. With China stabilizing a bit this week, there is unlikely to be much of a durable effect on the mortgage market for now, with focus shifting to any subtleties in the FOMC statement later today. For more detail on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales.
07:27 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee to hold a hearing
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07:20 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:18 EDTCommodity Futures Trading Commission to hold a meeting
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07:15 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:15 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has oscillated around 1.1050
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06:54 EDTFutures slightly higher ahead of rate decision
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06:11 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 29
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05:55 EDTEuropean stock markets have tracked higher
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05:51 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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03:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has edged higher
FX Action: USD-JPY has edged higher as the dollar firms into the FOMC announcement, and with steadier stock markets today reducing the yen's natural safe-haven appeal. The pair nudged above 123.70, which is new intraday highs, bringing yesterday's 123.79 high into play. Data today saw Japan retail trade for June decline 0.8 % m/m, slightly better than the -0.9% consensus forecast, though to little market impact with market participants focusing on the FOMC in the U.S, which is likely to be dollar supportive. While the Fed is not likely to commit to signalling a rate hike as soon as September, a likely upbeat tone on the economy will maintain this as a possibility and provide a contrast to the BoJ policy path. USD-JPY support is at 123.07-10.
02:00 EDTFX Update: The major dollar pairings have held within yesterday's ranges
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July 28, 2015
22:10 EDTAsia stocks have made headway amid the pause in global risk-off trades
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17:02 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:02 EDTWeek of 8/8 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTTreasury Action: there are several more auctions this week
Treasury Action: there are several more auctions this week with the 5-year sale and 2-year FRN Wednesday, both prior to the FOMC announcement, and a 7-year sale Thursday. The results may not be as solid as today's 2-year auction given the proximity of the Fed. Yields have backed up today, with the wi 5-year note up 2.5 bps to 1.600% and the wi 7-year up 3.1 bps to 1.990%. However, the concessions may not be sufficient to bring in buyers as those rates are much lower than June's stops at 1.710% and 2.153%, respectively. The 7-year might benefit from the fact the Fed will be out of the way, and may see some month-end flows.
14:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made 123.51 lows
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14:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly mixed positioning
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13:50 EDTAverages, internals very positive in afternoon trading
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13:40 EDTU.S. equities are extending their rally
U.S. equities are extending their rally and are trading up around 1% across the board with some relief that China didn't continue to melt down at the same pace, while WTI oil has bubbled back up above $48 bbl again - supporting resource stocks. Recent market volatility has quelled any lingering concern that the Fed make hike sooner, pushing those expectations to the very back end of 2015, with December now favored over September by many. Indeed, within the Dow the top performers are Exxon +3.7%, CAT +3.4% and Chevron +3.0%, while du Pont -0.8%, Verizon -0.13% and UT -0.1% are the underperformers.
13:15 EDTTreasury 2-year auction garnered solid demand
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields cooled off a tad
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13:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: volatility is drifting lower
Treasury Option Action: volatility is drifting lower into the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting, with September 10s stuck around 127-00, say sources. Among the major themes were outright sales of Sep bond puts (risk reversals), sales of 10k in September 127/126 put 1x2s (roll down of strike) and call butterfly exits. Other trades included bearish purchases of 4k in September 125.5 puts, 3k in September 126 puts, 4k in September 124 puts and 1.5k in September 126.5/125.5/124.5 put butterflies. There was also a bearish seller of 4k in September 128/129/130 call butterflies (exit). September 10s are still stuck at 127-00, compared to a tight 127-075 to 126-26 range.
12:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: market opinions are mixed
Treasury 2-year auction preview: market opinions are mixed on the auction, in large part due to uncertainties over the FOMC and the degree of hawkishness in tomorrow's policy statement. Meanwhile, there's only been a small outright concession on the note, as the wi has backed up to 0.69%, though it was at 0.700% earlier. The curve, however is a little steeper as the front end outperforms. Supporting expectations for a good reception to the auction is the modest concession, where a stop here would be the second highest of the year. The new cash need is also small. Many are starting to price out Fed liftoff in September too. Month-end buying could also come into play, while investment fund demand has been on the rise. On the other hand, trading volume has been limited by summer conditions, and the advent of the Fed could keep many potential buyers sidelined. There is some fear the note isn't priced sufficiently for a hawkish Fed. And volatility amid Chinese woes may also undermine. The June offering stopped at 0.692% and garnered a 3.28 cover (3.42 average) with a 52.6% indirect bid (39.9% average).
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen to one-week lows
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12:17 EDTS&P revises Brazil outlook to negative; ratings affirmed
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12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
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11:40 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction results were mixed
Treasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction results were mixed. The bill stopped through at 0.050% compared to 0.055% at the bid deadline, and compared to last week's 0.035%. There were $138.2 B in bids for a 3.47 cover, below last week's 3.52 and the 3.74 average. Indirect bidders took 25.4% versus 22.2% previously and the 22.2% average.
11:20 EDTU.S. RJ/CRB total return index is 11.5% lower
U.S. RJ/CRB total return index is 11.5% lower on the year near 204 presently, right at the bottom of its 203.17-299.44 52-week range. On the day its up 0.4% after closing at 203.21 following China's equity implosion yesterday. With WTI crude oil lingering below $48 bbl and commodity prices at the lowest level since the financial crisis, the Fed may have to wait a bit longer before reaching its inflation goal, regardless of how urgently it would like to lift rates from zero.
11:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the meeting is underway
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10:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook: Treasury kicks off its $90 B
Treasury 2-year auction outlook: Treasury kicks off its $90 B in coupon auctions with today's $26 B offering. Some concession building overnight boosted the wi 0.70%, though it's come down to 0.69% currently. The note traded as rich as 0.67% yesterday. The advent of the FOMC decision with the potential that the statement hints at a September rate hike could make for a somewhat difficult auction. Buyers could sit this one out as the outlook for Fed action has become quite uncertain. Also, the corporate calendar is heavy and is competing with the Treasury today. Historical data shows a stop here would be the highest since the 0.703% from December. The June offering stopped at 0.692% and garnered a 3.28 cover (3.42 average) with a 52.6% indirect bid (39.9% average).
10:30 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed factory index rose to 13.0 in July
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10:25 EDTChina tumult will cause Fed to delay lift-off
China tumult will cause Fed to delay lift-off according to a Goldman survey of investors, reported late yesterday by the WSJ Grand Central blog. Chief equity strategist Kostin was quoted accordingly: "Our recent client meetings reveal that many investors believe economic uncertainty in China will cause the Fed to delay tightening until 2016." Certainly few see any risk of a hike as early as tomorrow, though the language could possibly be updated to weight global growth risks and lower commodity prices. But, more are arguing for a deferral to 2016 thanks to fresh jitters related to Greece and China, and more importantly risk of a deeper financial correction. (subscription).
10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell to 90.9 in July
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10:15 EDTyields dipped briefly
Treasury Action: yields dipped briefly following the plunge in consumer confidence in June, which marked the lowest level since September 2014. But stocks continue to churn in shallow positive territory and yields quickly stabilized again. The T-note yield probed 2.25% from 2.266% session highs after rising from 2.21% lows yesterday ahead of the 2.17% July low . The 2s-10s spread continues to steepen back out to the +160 bp area. The dollar slipped.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved lower
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10:12 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
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10:12 EDTState Street Investor Confidence Index data reported
July State Street Investor Confidence Index at 114.6
10:12 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI rose to 55.2 in July
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09:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: July consumer confidence should reveal a decline to 100.0 (median 100.0) from 101.4 in June. This would come along side a decline in Michigan Sentiment to 93.3 in the first July release from 96.1 in June. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month managed to hold steady at 48.1 for a second month.
09:43 EDTMarket opens higher despite another slide in Chinese stocks
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09:39 EDTCowen retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dipped under 1.3000
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09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's a busy day in corporate land
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09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain near highs
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09:10 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 1.1% in May to 179.03
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09:01 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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09:01 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 7/25 Redbook Store Sales up 1.0% for the year
08:50 EDTU.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price preview:
U.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price preview: Case-Shiller home prices are forecast to rise 1.7% to 180.2 in May from 177.0 in April. For more detail on home price trends, see our new home sales report.
08:30 EDTU.S. equities recovered their composure
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08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell to four-month lows
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08:20 EDTTreasury Action: bonds look vulnerable to a selloff
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08:14 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Dodd-Frank Act 5 Years Later: Are We More Prosperous?" on July 28 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:10 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume as a rebound in stocks pared safe haven flows overnight. Treasuries are underperforming with the 10-year yield up over 3 bps to 2.25%. Treasuries are also down ahead of the FOMC meeting and with the advent of supply as the $90 B in coupon offerings begin. U.S. equity futures and European bourses are on the mend, though Asian share markets were mostly lower with China's Shanghai down another 1.7% (but pared a better than 5% decline). Losses slowed there after official implemented new measures to boost equities. There wasn't much market moving data out. UK preliminary GDP rose 0.7% q/q. In the U.S., the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting. No surprises are expected. Earnings news will be important with Anadarko, Ford, Gilead, Merck, Pfizer, Reynolds, UPS, LVMH, Yelp, Wyndham Worldwide, Panera Bread, and GrubHub to name a few. There's not a lot of data on today's slate, with just July consumer confidence, preliminary Markit services PMI, the May Case-Shiller home price index, the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. The Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes.
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales dipped 0.2% in the week ended July 25
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08:05 EDTBudget battles unlikely to derail Fed rate plans:
Budget battles unlikely to derail Fed rate plans: risk of the traditional fall budget showdown and potential government closures have been factored in by the Fed in the past, but WSJ's Hilsenrath thinks it may be different this time around and not be an impediment to a rate hike. "First, Republicans have made it clear they want to avoid a repeat of past shutdowns. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky) vowed last year -- after the GOP won control of the Senate -- there would be no more shutdowns or threats of debt market disruptions. Last week House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) said Congress would likely pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government operating past September. Second, the market backdrop is different today than it was in September 2013. Back then, Fed officials were worried about a 'taper tantrum' in bond markets that pushed interest rates higher in anticipation of a Fed move and knocked emerging markets. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have held steadily between 2.0-2.5% since mid-February. Third, the Fed is closer to its goal of full employment now and broader headwinds from tight government budgets have diminished."
08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume as a rebound in stocks pared safe haven flows overnight. Treasuries are underperforming with the 10-year yield up over 3 bps to 2.25%. Treasuries are also down ahead of the FOM meeting and with the advent of supply as the $90 B n coupon offerings begin. U.S. equity futures and European bourses are on the mend, though Asian share markets were mostly lower with China's Shanghai down another 1.7%. Losses slowed there after official implemented new measures to boost equities. There wasn't much market moving data out. UK preliminary GDP rose 0.7% q/q. In the U.S., the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting. No surprises are expected. Earnings news will be important with Anadarko, Ford, Gilead, Merck, Pfizer, Reynolds, UPS, LVMH, Yelp, Wyndham Worldwide, Panera Bread, and GrubHub to name a few. There's not a lot of data on today's slate, with just July consumer confidence, preliminary Markit services PMI, the May Case-Shiller home price index, the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. The Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes.
07:31 EDTBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System holds closed meeting
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07:30 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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07:25 EDTFX Update: Chinese stock markets continued to wield influence
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06:46 EDTSuntory Holdings not considering IPO at this time, Reuters reports
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06:46 EDTFutures suggest market bounce at open
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 28
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05:48 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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02:40 EDTFX Update: The AUD saw volatile trade
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00:05 EDTChinese equities rebounded from lows
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July 27, 2015
16:34 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:34 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:34 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
14:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes Tuesday
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14:50 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market got a lift from the downdraft in stocks, which resumed with a vengeance overnight in China and spread like the flu to Europe and Wall Street. A robust verbal defense of the Chinese markets came from its rescue fund spokesman, which implied that official buyers will be back in tomorrow and denied any wind down of the support program. But equities remained jittery and yields settled lower, despite the proximity of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Commodites also remained soft, while durables surged thanks to Boeing and the Dallas Fed index ticked up from recent lows.
14:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: light call selling on bonds
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14:05 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
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13:52 EDTMarket heads back toward lows in afternoon trading
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13:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has stabilized
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13:25 EDTThe confidence game in China
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12:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been steady
FX Action: USD-CAD has been steady over 1.3000, but for a quick dip to 1.2994 lows earlier. The weak commodity backdrop continues to weigh on the CAD, as WTI crude hit fresh lows of $47.22. The pairing remains off its trend high however, as profit taking has been a factor over the past session. The near 8% rise in USD-CAD over the past month or so has likely resulted in a crowded long trade, and analysts expect some of recent gains to come undone before the pairing can move higher.
12:10 EDTTreasury Action: a small hiccup on yields
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B bill auctions found no significant benefit
Treasury's $48 B bill auctions found no significant benefit from flight to safety amid a global rout in stocks, with the shorter tranche underperforming. The 3-month bill stopped at 0.05%, right on the screws, but 2 bps above last week's 0.03% award rate. Bids totaled only $87 B for a modest 3.68 cover, the lowest since October 2013. Indirect bidders took only 17.7%, down from 23.0% last week and the 21.3% average. The 6-month bill stopped through at 0.145%, versus 0.15% at the bid deadline, and 1 bp cheaper than last week. There were $94.5 B in bids for a 3.99 cover, only a little better than last week's 3.67, but less than the 4.18 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 47.5% versus the prior 34.8% and the 41.6% average.
11:40 EDTChinese authorities say they will increase state purchases of stocks
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11:25 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:45 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index improved to -4.6 in July
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10:40 EDTChinaMeltdown is the popular tag on Twitter overnight
ChinaMeltdown is the popular tag on Twitter overnight prefaced by the ubiquitous hashtag, as in #ChinaMeltdown, with mostly leaning with the grain of the 8.5% equity decline there that has again bled into commodity prices and stocks, and few willing to challenge the trend despite Chinese shares still with some cushion in terms of gains for the year. Stocks continue to sag in NY with NASDAQ off 0.7%, though Europe has extended its drop as the Euro Stoxx 50 is now 2.1% lower and the German DAX is 2.3% lower. That suggests pressure will remain downward at least until Europe closes, though the 200-day m.a. on the S&P 500 near 2063 may provide some initial support according to UBS's Art Cashin.
10:31 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Production Index data reported
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10:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are on the rise
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10:15 EDTFOMC may offer fresh clues on rate liftoff, according to a WSJ article
FOMC may offer fresh clues on rate liftoff, according to a WSJ article by Ben Leubsdorf and Jon Hilsenrath, where the authors appeal to recent speeches/testimony suggesting rate hikes could begin this year. But as noted in the piece, the Fed will have "a slight signaling challenge...How aggressively should officials tip their hands about the timing of a rate increase later this year?" Analysts don't believe that policymakers can provide any clear hints. For months the FOMC has stressed the data dependent nature of the policy path. And so with a couple of more months' worth of key economic and price reports on tap prior to the September 16, 17, not to mention an increasingly shaky financial environment, it would not only be inconsistent for hints to be provided this week, but would jeopardize their credibility.
10:00 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the statement should have a slightly more upbeat tone
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09:48 EDTChina rout drags down global markets, leads to lower U.S. open
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09:41 EDTMorgan Stanley hold a cloud capex analyst/industry conference call
Communications and Systems Applications Analyst Faucette, along with IT Hardware Analyst Huberty, Semi Analyst Moore and Asian Hardware Tech Analyst Chen and Asian Semi Analyst Chan, discuss Morgan Stanley's report, "Global Insight: Cloudy With a Chance of Revisions" on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 27 at 10 am.
09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: some put positioning
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09:15 EDTTreasury Action: the FOMC and supply should restrain the front end
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09:10 EDTToday's U.S. durable goods figures
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields jumped briefly
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08:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude touched new trend lows
Energy Action: NYMEX crude touched new trend lows of $47.41 overnight, with its eyes now on the April 1 low of $47.01. A bout of dollar weakness failed to support prices, as another China equity market sell-off dented demand expectations. On the supply side, an uptick in operating oil rigs last week implies gains in U.S. production, while reports that Iraq will produce record volumes this month, should keep pressure on prices for the foreseeable future. RBOB gasoline futures remained near three-month lows under $1.8150, leaving average U.S. retail prices at $2.71/gallon, and down more than 4 cents over the past week, per AAA data. Natural gas futures declined a penny to $2.76/M BTU.
08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 3.4% in June
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08:36 EDTFutures continue to suggest lower open
Stock futures in the U.S. remain lower, taking their lead from Chinaís market, whose key index fell 8.5% in its largest single day drop in 8 years. Durable goods orders rose 3.4% in June, versus expectations for an increase of 3.2%. When transportation items are removed, the core reading was up 0.8%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities were hammered again
U.S. equities were hammered again after stunning losses in China, which rekindled volatility in the region and concerns about the economic path. That development also fed back into the vicious cycle on commodity prices, which resumed their downslope. In Asia, the Nikkei fell 0.95%, while China's Shenzhen tanked 8.5% and the Shanghai Comp tumbled 8.4% despite government price support mechanisms. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.6% in sympathy, while the German DAX is 1.7% lower, though the German Ifo jumped to 108.0. The Dow sank 105-points, S&P eased 11-points and NASDAQ is off 32-points in pre-open action. In M&A, Teva Pharma surged 14% after it bought Allergan for $40.5 B and gave up on its offer for Mylan, which sank 11%. Fiat Chrysler fell over 2% after the NTSB levied $105 M in fines on safety issues. The dollar index is 0.5% lower near 96.7 amid increased risk aversion and lower perceived Fed tightening risk. Durables should be propped up by heavy Boeing orders in June. Looking ahead, a heavy corporate earnings week and the FOMC will feature.
08:15 EDTDA Davidson energy/MLP analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:15 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar sagged overnight against the euro and yen in particular, as risk-off conditions returned following another sharp downturn in China equities. EUR-USD touched 11-session high of 1.1113, as USD-JPY fell to two-week lows of 123.19. Further weakness in oil prices took USD-CAD back above 1.3030 from lows of 1.2980, while cable was relatively steady over 1.5500. On the data front, June durables are due at 8:30 EDT, followed by the July Dallas Fed index at 10:30 EDT.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: the week begins on a bullish note for bonds
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07:53 EDTFDA to hold a public workshop
Public Workshop entitled, "Robotically-Assisted Surgical (RAS) Devices": Challenges & Opportunities" is being held to obtain public feedback on scientific, clinical and regulatory considerations associated with RAS devices at the FDA Silver Springs, Maryland offices on July 27 and July 28 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded generally weaker
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07:07 EDTChina decline sinks U.S. futures
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06:20 EDTA sharp dive in Chinese stocks have driven global markets lower
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06:15 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 27
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05:59 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro has traded firmly
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July 24, 2015
22:00 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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22:00 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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22:00 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
July Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 50.0
22:00 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
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22:00 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
Real GDP will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 2.9% for the quarter
22:00 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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22:00 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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22:00 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 10:00
July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 7.5
22:00 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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22:00 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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22:00 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
June Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 3.1% for the month
19:21 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 00:00
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16:17 EDTFitch upgrades Iceland to BBB+, Outlook stable
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Iceland's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB'. The Long-term local currency IDR has been upgraded to 'A-' from 'BBB+'. The Outlooks are Stable. The issue ratings on Iceland's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been upgraded to 'BBB+' and 'A-', respectively. The Country Ceiling has been revised to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' and the Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR upgraded to 'F2' from 'F3'. Reference Link
16:15 EDTFitch affirms Belgium at AA, Outlook negative
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Belgium's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AA' with a Negative Outlook. The issue ratings on Belgium's senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds are also affirmed at 'AA'. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign-currency IDR at 'F1+'. Reference Link
15:30 EDTEarnings announcements will be important for the growth outlook
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15:04 EDTMarket moves to session lows in afternoon trading
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meeting highlights next week
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries are outperforming today
Treasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries are outperforming today as a number of factors suggest risk the FOMC will delay September liftoff. However, analysts suspect the long end will reassert itself next week. The plunge in new home sales data, disappointing PMIs from Europe and China, the drop in commodity prices, and the dovish Fed staff outlook are creating some second thoughts on market policy outlooks. Those, and unwinding of curve flatteners are giving the front end a boost. The 2s-10s spread has edged out to 158 bps from 157 bps yesterday, to end a string of 8 consecutive days of flattening. However, with the advent of the Fed and risk the policy statement isn't as bond friendly as seen today, along with $105 B in short and intermediate supply, should see the back end of the curve outperform again. Additionally, it's month-end and the duration index is expected to extend out 0.10 years, which should further support. The drop in commodity prices and the strength in the dollar, not to mention the Fed's staff view that inflation won't reach the 2% target until 2020, will also add to benign price outlooks and underpin bonds. Plus, it's a seasonally bullish time of year for the long end.
13:40 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: June durable goods data is out on Monday and analysts expect to see orders up 2.0% (median 3.1%) following a 2.2% decline in May and a 1.7% drop in April. Both sales and inventories are expected to be unchanged on the month which should leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 since March. There was a major surge in Boeing orders in June to 181 from just 11 in May which could provide some lift via the transport component.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has headed back toward the top of its range
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13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
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12:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: busy in bonds
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11:55 EDTTreasury Curve Action: flattener unwinds kicked in
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11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures jerked higher
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11:20 EDTFed is publically acknowledging an inadvertent release of staff projections
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11:15 EDTU.S. equities are slip-sliding away
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11:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on new three-month lows
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10:40 EDTU.S. new home sales sharply underperformed
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10:15 EDTU.S. June new home sales fell 6.8% to 482
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures rebounded
Euro$ interest rate futures rebounded to highs of the week at the rate complex remains bullish relative to the diminished prospects on stocks, while the approaching FOMC meeting next week appears to be a low hurdle given fragile markets and an abundantly cautious Fed. The December 2015 contract is a half-tick lower near 99.445 (0.555% implied vs 0.570% Monday), while the deferreds are 1-2.5 ticks firmer out the back-end. Lean Friday holiday conditions should prevail quickly after the PMI and housing data round.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI inched up to53.8 in July
U.S. Markit flash PMI inched up to53.8 in July after slipping to 53.6 in June (the lowest print since October 2013) from May's 54.0. The index was at 55.8 a year ago. New orders rose to 55.0 from 54.7, while employment dipped to its lowest level since April versus June's 55.5. Cost inflation remained subdued. The data reflect solid improvement in the manufacturing sector. The data may weigh on Treasuries a bit as the market was worried that the report could disappoint, as was the case with Chinese and European results.
10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar inched up
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09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: June data on new home sales should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high. Other housing indicators have generally improved for the month with starts rising to 1,174k from 1,069k in May, existing home sales rising to 5.490 M from 5.320 M and the NAHB Index up to 60 from 54.
09:30 EDTU.S. Markit manufacturing flash PMI
U.S. Markit manufacturing flash PMI is forecast to sink slightly to 53.5 in July from 53.6 in June. For more detail on the data, see the Markit website.
09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to struggle over the 124 level
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09:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: today's slate is light heading into the weekend
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some early bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some early bullish positioning included purchases of September 126.5 calls in a couple of tranches totaling 1k, accompanied by an uptick in volatility. September 10-year futures are 4.5-ticks firmer near 126-245 with the grain of this demand, compared to a 126-255 to 126-175 range on Globex overnight. Meanwhile, stocks continue to equivocate ahead of the open.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are slightly firmer
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to 1.3092 highs
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Weaker PMI data were the overnight story, as China and EU manufacturing readings came in under market expectations, Global equities were mixed on the results however, with U.S. stock futures indicating a higher Wall Street open, largely on the back of Amazon's better earning report. EUR-USD fell back into 1.0920 from Thursday highs over 1.10135, as USD-JPT maintained a narrow range on either side of 124.00. USD-CAD matched the September 2, 2004 high of 1.3071, as oil prices stayed under $49/bbl, and as gold touched new five-plus year lows near $1,1076/ounce, and copper fell to six-year low near $2.35/lb. The U.S. calendar reveals the July flash Markit PMI at 9:45 EDT, followed by June new home sales at 10:00 EDT.
07:10 EDTFX Update: The euro traded softer in the wake of Eurozone PMI misses
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07:04 EDTEarnings continue to dictate market moves
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06:22 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 24
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05:54 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The AUD dove following a sub-forecast China PMI
FX Update: The AUD dove following a sub-forecast China PMI reading for manufacturing, which plunged to a preliminary 48.2 in July, well short of projections for a modest erosion following the final 49.4 in June. AUD-USD hit a six-year low of 0.7269 after declining almost a whole big figure, subsequently recouping to the 0.7300 area but remaining net lower for the day. Weaker commodity prices this week had already been weighing on the Aussie. Elsewhere, the other commodity bloc currencies and most dollar pairings held mostly in narrow ranges. USD-JPY traded near 124.00, holding well within yesterday's range, with a decent Japanese manufacturing PMI having little impact on the yen nor Japanese stock markets, which instead were more preoccupied by the much worse Chinese PMI. EUR-USD consolidated yesterday's gain in a narrow range in the upper 1.09s, leaving yesterday's nine-day high at 1.1018 untroubled.
July 23, 2015
23:35 EDTJapan flash manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in July
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23:20 EDTChina's manufacturing PMI plunged to a preliminary 48.2 in July
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21:36 EDTWeek of 8/5 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
21:36 EDTWeek of 7/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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21:36 EDTJuly Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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17:17 EDTWeek of 7/31 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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17:17 EDTWeek of 8/2 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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20:19 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 8/1 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 273K
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the rate decision is less than a week away
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14:05 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated Treasuries are outperforming
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13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: a variety of flows
Treasury Option Action: a variety of flows have swept through the otherwise fairly static and quiet options market, according to sources. Among the largest vs 10-year futures were bullish sellers of 4k in August 127/126/125 put butterflies and bearish seller of 1.5k in August 126.5 calls. Also cited were bullish buys of 3k in August 126+ calls and 2k in week 5 126/127 call 1x1.5s. September 10s are now 9-ticks higher near 126-19 after the stock market slump, compared to an updated range of 126-19 to 126-04.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has pulled back
FX Action: USD-JPY has pulled back to near overnight lows, touching 123.75 so far. The soft risk backdrop has weighed, as Wall Street adds to losses, commodities tank, and as yields settle a bit lower. Support is seen into Wednesday's 123.57 base, with sell-stops said to be building at 123.50.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $15 B TIPS auction was ho-hum
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13:10 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: June data on new home sales is out on Friday and should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high. Other housing indicators have generally improved for the month with starts rising to 1,174k from 1,069k in May, existing home sales rising to 4.950 M from 5.320 M and the NAHB Index up to 60 from 54.
12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS auction preview:
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12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has perked up
FX Action: USD-CAD has perked up from its post-data 1.2948 lows, trading back over 1.3030 as the commodity market meltdown continues. WTI crude is under $49/bbl, as gold prices stay under $1,100, and copper flirts with six-year lows. Should commodity prices fall further, the odds for another BoC rate cut will rise, and will keep the CAD under pressure.
11:50 EDTU.S. equities are limping toward midday
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bullish positioning included a sale of 3k in September 125.00 puts against a purchase of calls on 10-year futures. Sources are also preoccupied by the expiry of August options tomorrow, which is dominating activity on calendar rolls and the like. September 10s are 3.5-ticks lower near 126-065 compared to their 126-155 to 126-04 session range.
11:20 EDTCommodity Action: NYMEX crude
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B package of coupon offerings for next week
Treasury announced a $90 B package of coupon offerings for next week, as expected, including $26 B in 2-year notes (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B in 7s (Thursday). The debt managers also announced a $15 B 2-year FRN (Wednesday), and a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale (Monday).
11:07 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:07 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828XP0
11:07 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
July Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at -7
11:05 EDTBridgewater threw in the towel on China
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10:40 EDTTreasury Action: curve is flattening for an 8th straight session
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending July 17
Gas inventories 61 Bcf build vs. consensus of 68 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields have simmered down
Treasury Action: yields have simmered down after earlier swings on the historic low on claims. The leaders gain was well above low consensus, but below the revised May level. The T-note yield has steadied in the 2.32% area after jumping from 2.30% lows to 2.34% highs.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar did not react
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading indicators rose 0.6% in June to 123.6
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10:11 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
June Leading Indicators up 0.6% vs. consensus of 0.2% for the month
09:50 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
U.S. Leading Indicators Preview: June leading indicators may reveal a 0.8% (median 0.2%) increase on the heels of two consecutive 0.7% increases. The increase in permits to 1,343k for June from 1,250k should provide much of the boost that analysts expect to the headline.
09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures remain frothy:
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09:36 EDTAverage mixed after jobless claims, earnings torrent
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09:30 EDTIMF warned Japan on over-reliance on the weak yen
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09:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude was held to $49.53 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude was held to $49.53 highs overnight, after falling to trend lows of $49.03 lows on Wednesday. A modestly lower dollar has provided some support this morning, though with the supply/demand formula skewed in favor of supply, upside is likely to be limited for the foreseeable future. The April 2 low of $48.09 is the next major support level, with resistance at $50.00. RBOB gasoline futures have recovered to $1.88/gallon, after making one-week lows of $1.8560 overnight, as natural gas futures edge over $2.90/M BTU on increased demand, due to warmer U.S. temperatures.
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is again on the heavy side
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09:04 EDTWells Fargo to hold a symposium
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08:55 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dove 26k to 255k in the week ended July 18
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08:55 EDTThe 26k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 255k new cycle-low
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08:55 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activty index rose to 0.08 in June
U.S. Chicago Fed's National Activty index rose to 0.08 in June after an upwardly revised 0.0.8 decline in May (was -0.17), and April's -0.04 (revised from -0.19). This is the first time this year the index has been in positive territory. The 3-month average improved to -0.01 versus May's -0.07 (revised from -0.16) and April's -0.13 (bumped from -0.20).
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved up
FX Action: The dollar moved up after the much better jobless claims print, which was the lowest since 1973. EUR-USD eased into 1.0978 from near 1.1020, as USD-JPY jumped to 124.00 from 123.80. Yields moved off of session lows, while equity futures were little changed, and indicate a mixed Wall Street open.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are trading mixed
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields sought traction above lows
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08:38 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level data reported
June Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level at 0.08 vs consensus of -0.05
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Jobless claims for the week of July 18th are forecast to edge up 2k to 283k (median 281k) from 281k in the week prior. Claims during July can be volatile as a result of the auto retooling season but analysts expect balanced risk to this volatility for the duration of the month as analysts discussed in our June 30th commentary.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: sovereign bonds are modestly higher
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07:40 EDTFX Update: The euro found broad support
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07:37 EDTThe Economic Club of Minnesota to hold a meeting
The Economic Club of Minnesota holds a Reception where President & CEO MacLennan of Cargill is the guest speaker in Washington, D.C. on July 23 at 5:30 pm.
07:35 EDTNational Economists Club to hold a luncheon meeting
Robert Young, Chief Economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, discusses the implications for future food production at a luncheon meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on July 23 at 12 pm.
07:27 EDTFutures suggest slight market bounce
Stock futures are suggesting a market bounce as investors focus on the multitude of earnings reports from last night and today. 25% of the S&P were scheduled for release this week, with the lionís share coming today. The economic calendar includes the weekly natural gas inventory report, weekly jobless claims data and the leading economic indicators report.
06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 23
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.30 from previous dayís SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.44%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index up 2.25%, DAX up 0.22%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.27, natural gas down 0.01%, gold at $1101 an ounce, copper up 0.80%.
05:26 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
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02:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm
FX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm during the pre-Europe session in Asia. USD-JPY matched yesterday's two-day high 124.15 as it extended its recovery from 123.57. The move mostly reflected yen underperformance as stock markets in Japan and Asia managed to rebound from yesterday's losses. EUR-JPY edged out an eight-day peak of 135.41, and other yen crosses posted gains too. Elsewhere, EUR-USD traded steadily in the low-to-mid 1.09s, holding below the eight-day peak set on Tuesday at 1.0969. AUD-USD dipped to a two-day low of 0.7356. NZD-USD rallied as markets bought kiwis 'on the fact' of an anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ, logging a two-day peak at 0.6653. USD-CAD consolidated just of yesterday's six-year peak at 1.3053, which was seen as oil prices dropped amid new signs of excess supply.
02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm
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July 22, 2015
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: longer dated yields drifted lower Wednesday as the correction on equities gathered steam following an earnings miss from Apple after the close Tuesday, and deep losses posted by Microsoft, among others. Though bid, the bond market was relatively subdued. Some bottom fishing kicked in on stocks after opening losses and limited Treasury gains, as did a big debt offering from Intel. Existing home sales and FHFA home prices both rose handily, but merely helped provide a cushion after opening declines.
14:49 EDTWeek of 7/31 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:49 EDT Treasury Refunding Announcement to be released at 08:30
14:49 EDTWeek of 7/31 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:35 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
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14:30 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Jobless claims for the week of July 18th are out Thursday and should edge up to 283k (median 281k) from 281k in the week prior. Claims during July can be volatile as a result of the auto retooling season but analysts expect balanced risk to this volatility for the duration of the month as analysts discussed in our June 30th commentary.
14:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded to new trend lows
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14:25 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
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13:52 EDTAverages drift in negative territory
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13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed decision is a week away
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been grinding slowly higher
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11:25 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated Treasuries are outperforming
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $50.20
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of July 17
Crude oil inventories 2.47M build vs. consensus of 2.2M draw. Gasoline inventories 1.73M draw vs. consensus of 300K build. Distillates 235K build vs. consensus of 1.8M build.
10:30 EDTThe 3.2% June U.S. existing home sales surge
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows with a little bottom-fishing on Apple and tech stocks, combined with the uptick on existing home sales. The T-note yield tested the 2.31% July 50% retrace area earlier and then recovered above 2.32%. The 2s-10s spread steadied at +163 bp after narrowing inside that area, compared to +169 bp Tuesday wides.
10:11 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rose 3.2% to a 5.49 M rate in June
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
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10:03 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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09:55 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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09:55 EDTU.S. tech stocks slump is being viewed as a buying op
U.S. tech stocks slump is being viewed as a buying op according to some after the residual opening selling washes through on Apple, which remains a fund darling after record earnings despite the topline miss. Adding fuel to that conjecture is the uptick in USD-JPY to session highs of 123.97, which appears to be signaling risk-on despite the opening carnage. Apple traded over 9% lower overnight, but has since trimmed those losses to -5.9%.
09:50 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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09:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: supply is picking up
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09:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: June existing home sales should reveal a 0.4% decline to a 5.330 M (median 5.400 M) pace from 5.350 M in May. The NAHB index improved to 60 in June from 54 in May and the housing starts report for June revealed an increase in the pace to 1.174 M from 1.069 M in May. For more detail, see our existing home sales preview.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields tripped to lows
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 222.8 in May
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09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has posted anew 11-year highs
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08:45 EDTU.S. FHFA home prices index preview:
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08:30 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: September NYMEX crude
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.1%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.1% in data released earlier, in addition to a 1.0% rise in the purchase index and 0.5% drop in the refinancing index for the week ended July 17. Average mortage rates were unchanged at 4.23% for the period on the 30-year fixed mortgage. The refinancing share of the total mortgage activity dipped to 50.3% from 50.8% the week prior. Fairly balanced Yellen semi-annual testimony last week dominated the headlines after the negative print on June retail sales, which kept a lid on yields after a deal with Greece was struck. For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are mixed in thin, narrow trading
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are mixed in thin, narrow trading, having pared earlier losses. The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.33%. It's ranged from 2.319% to 2.339%. The Bund yield is at 0.77% after trading from 0.756% to 0.78%. Gilts are outperforming with the rate down 4 bps to 2.04% after the BoE minutes showed a unanimous vote for a steady policy stance, though the usually dovish Miles turned hawkish in an interview in a Morgan Stanley magazine interview. Meanwhile, it's a sea of red in equities after misses from Apple and Microsoft last night exacerbated the bearish tone in stocks that followed poor results yesterday from IBM and United Technologies. Also, Greece is headed for a second bailout vote amid more public protests. There wasn't much dat overnight, and today's U.S. slate is thin with just June existing home sales and the May FHFA home price index. The MBA reported mortgage applications inched up 0.1% in the week ended July 17. Earnings will remain the focal point news from American Express, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Cheesecake Factory, Angie's List, Owens Corning, Qualcomm, and SanDisk.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:22 EDTBofa/Merrill to hold a briefing
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07:16 EDTThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services holds a committee meeting
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06:48 EDTTech selloff sinks futures
U.S. equity futures are lower this morning, led by the Nasdaq, which is being dragged down by steep slides in shares of Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) after their earnings reports last night. The weakness has spilled over to the other indices in the early going. Investors will have little aside from earnings on which to focus, as the economic calendar has just existing home sales data and energy inventory numbers scheduled for release.
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 22
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05:51 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
05:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has steadied
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02:30 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY dipped to a one-week low
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02:25 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY dipped to a one-week low
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