U.S. Dallas Fed Preview U.S. Dallas Fed Preview: The March Dallas Fed is out on Monday and is expected to improve to -9.0 from -11.2 in February. Other measures of producer sentiment have weakened in March leading to our expectations for an ISM-adjusted average drop to 51 from 52 in both January and February as analysts discussed in Monday's commentary.
U.S. Personal Income Preview U.S. Personal Income Preview: February personal income is out Monday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase for the month with consumption up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This compares to respective January figures of 0.3% and 0.4%. Analysts expect the PCE price index to be up 0.1% with a 0.1% increase for the core as well.
The Michigan sentiment drop to an upwardly-revised 93.0 The Michigan sentiment drop to an upwardly-revised 93.0 (was 91.2) extended the February decline to 95.4 from the 98.1 cycle-high in January that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004, as the novelty of lower gasoline prices continues to dissipate. Analysts previously saw a steep six-month climb from a lean 81.8 in July thanks to plunging gasoline prices. Today's big upward Michigan sentiment revision further reversed the brief three-month period of downward revisions that ended in January, and reestablished the upward revision tendency of the prior two years. Analysts have an average upward revision of 1.2 in 2015, versus average boosts of 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. All of the various confidence gauges have declined into March from recent peaks, and analysts expect the consumer confidence index to slip to 95.0 in March from 96.4 in February and a 103.8 cycle-high in January, versus a slightly lower 93.1 in December. Overall, confidence is now oscillating in line with the growth trajectory of consumption and payrolls, as the pessimism of the current expansion that fueled remarkably weak confidence readings has slowly dissipated.