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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 23, 2014
03:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is trading softer
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02:25 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed
FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed in pre-Europe FX trade in Asia. An above-forecast China flash HSBC-Markit manufacturing PMI helped lift stocks in the region, but had limit impact on currencies, aside from helping generate a moderate bid in the AUD, which lifted above 0.8900 against the USD, recovering a good portion of yesterday's losses to a six-month low at 0.8852. News that BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance are to cut 700 mining jobs had little impact. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a narrow 108.60-75 range, with the consolidation of the sharp gains seen over the last month continued. EUR-USD saw a 1.2842-1.2858 range, also remaining in consolidation mode. Sterling traded on the firm side, with Cable managing to make a two-day high of 1.6391 and EUR-GBP a two-day low of 0.7841.
September 22, 2014
18:16 EDTTreasury Department to outline new steps to reduce tax inversions, AP reports
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish position liquidation
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13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied to a one-week high
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13:30 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
Economic Club of Marquette County holds a dinner meeting where Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy objectives in Marquette, Michigan on September 22 at 7:30 pm.
13:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Fall kicks off with a healthy dose of issuance
U.S. corporate bond update: Fall kicks off with a healthy dose of issuance, which will compete against the Treasury's $193 B in total offerings. Indeed, this will be the busiest session since the beginning of September. Heading the list is a hefty 6-parter (all benchmark size) from Roche Holdings, including a 3-year fixed/FRN, a 5-year fixed/FRN, along with 7- and 10-year notes. There is also a $1 B 4-year global from ADB. GM Financial is selling benchmark 3- and 7-year notes. Thomson Reuters is offering benchmark 3s and 10s. Tiffany has a $500 M 2-parter, split equally between 10- and 30-year paper.
13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: sales of short-dated put spreads
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12:22 EDTThe Hamilton Project to hold a roundtable discussion
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12:20 EDTTreasury Action: supply hits this week with $93 B in coupon auctions
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11:45 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: "a whopper block"
More euro$ interest rate options: "a whopper block" is how sources describe a purchase of 40k in June 91/93 put spreads vs a sale of 40k in June 96 calls, with the package covered on the June 2015s at 99.445 (17 delta, 2.5 price). This came along with a purchase of 80k in Short June 78/81 put spreads vs a sale of 80k in June 90/92 put spreads, covered on the Short June 2016 leg at 98.365 (11 delta). Indeed, a whopper. The deferred contracts continue to creep higher, up some 1-7 ticks now.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $47 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY ran up to 109.19 highs
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
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10:55 EDTMore from Dudley: he'd be "very happy"
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10:40 EDTNo Slowdown in Sight for U.S. Sentiment:
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields held above lows
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10:25 EDTU.S. existing home sales undershot estimates
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10:25 EDTFed's Dudley said a below 2% inflation target argues for patience on rates
Fed's Dudley said a below 2% inflation target argues for patience on rates, in comments at a Bloomberg summit. Inflation remains soft because of excess economic slack. He noted there are ongoing risks to growth, including events in Ukraine and Ebola. The FOMC's forward guidance is not an "iron-clad commitment" he reminded, and rate action will be driven by economic data. He also cautioned not to overweight the value of the "Dot Plot." The Fed will be improving its communications if it can. These aren't surprising comments from Dudley, who is one of the more dovish on the Committee.
10:15 EDTPhilly Fed's Plosser announced his retirement, effective March 1
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales fell 1.8% to 5.05 M in August
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09:55 EDTAverages slip in early trading with Nasdaq lagging
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09:50 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:37 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish activity has picked up
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
U.S. equities are back on the defensive after the fresh downturn in commodity prices to 5-year lows thanks to global growth concerns overnight via China finance minister Lou Jiwei remarks. This came hot on the heels of the record $21.8 B "Baba" IPO last week, which dominated the markets short attention span on Friday. The Dow is 37-points lower, S&P sank 7-points and NASDAQ is off 14-points in pre-market trade. This followed declines on the Nikkei of 0.71% and the Shanghai Comp of 1.7%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng was also 1.44% lower, amid fresh declines on industrial and precious metals and commodity prices more broadly. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.15%, while the UK FTSE fell 0.6%. Yahoo! continued to decline 2% after a lowered rating by Sanford C. Bernstein, though Apple posted record sales of 10 M of the new iPhones over the weekend, boosting its shares. Sigma-Aldrich leapt 35% after a bid from Merck, while EMC rallied 2% after mulling the possibility of a merger. Existing home sales are forecast to decline marginally in August.
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is at session highs
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index dropped to -0.21 in August
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08:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures have perked up
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08:18 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:07 EDTThe FDA to hold a public meeting
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents at $92.56/bbl into the open, recovering some after finding support under $92 overnight. Familiar ranges remain however, and the story hasn't changed much. The backdrop of soft demand and abundant supply should continue to keep pressure on prices, with a $90-95 trading range largely in the cards for now.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: risk off trades have boosted bonds,
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
West Coast Payments Summit to be held in Half Moon Bay, California on September 22-23.
07:30 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:29 EDTNational Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts to hold a forum
NAREIT HR Forum to be held in Boston on September 22-23.
07:28 EDTLongbow to hold a field trip
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07:26 EDTUBS to hold a field trip
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07:25 EDTFutures pointing to lower open after Dow closed last week at record
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07:23 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a seminar
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07:22 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a conference
Bloomberg Market Most Influential Conference to be held in New York on September 22.
07:15 EDTInformation Management Network to hold a conference
20th Annual ABS East Conference to be held in Miami Beach on September 21-23.
07:10 EDTFX Action: The AUD and other dollar units came under pressures
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 22
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05:54 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar is trading a mostly softer levels
FX Update: The dollar is trading a mostly softer levels against most currencies. The case for AUD-USD was an exception as a backdrop of risk aversion -- after China's finance minister said Beijing will not make any "major policy adjustments" in light of recent weak data -- saw the Aussie underperform. AUD-USD hit a new six-month low of 0.8909. EUR-USD, meanwhile lifted to the 1.2865 area from around 1.2830, and Cable saw a similar price action in rising go the mid-1.63s. USD-JPY dipped under 109.00, correcting some after seeing a six-year peak at 109.46 last Friday.
September 19, 2014
16:48 EDTMoody's affirms France 'Aa1' rating; Outlook negative
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16:44 EDTMoody's affirms U.K. 'Aa1' rating; Outlook stable
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the UK's government bond rating at Aa1 and maintained a stable outlook. Moody's decision to affirm the UK's rating follows the outcome of the referendum on Scottish independence, which maintains the 307-year-old union, thereby preserving the country's current institutional and fiscal framework. While the political process going forward will likely lead to further devolution of powers to Scotland and some changes in the fiscal transfers, the rating agency does not anticipate that these will have a material impact on the quality of the UK's institutions, or its financial strength. Indeed, as Moody's indicated in May, the strength of the UK's credit profile would not have changed materially in the event of Scottish independence and therefore such an event would have likely been rating neutral. Reference Link
16:18 EDTFitch affirms U.S. 'AAA' rating; Outlook stable
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States of America's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AAA' with Stable Outlooks. The ratings on senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'AAA'. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. Reference Link
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTFedspeak resumes with a vengeance next week
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14:00 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:45 EDTPreliminary Barclays bond index extension estimates
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13:25 EDTPowerShares Commodity Index volatility flat as index at four-year low
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13:20 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: August Existing home sales data will be released on Monday and analysts expect the headline to fall 0.6% to a 5.120 M (median 5.180 M) pace after a 2.4% increase to 5.150 M in July. The NAHB composite improved for the month with a rise to 55 in August from 53 in July but analysts saw housing starts fall to a 956k pace from 1,117k in July.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: month- and quarter-end are coming into view
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12:30 EDTTreasury Action: supply next week could weigh on the front end of the curve
Treasury Action: supply next week could weigh on the front end of the curve, especially since the bond market is more defensive after the hawkish Dot Plot from the FOMC. The Treasury is selling $93 B in notes next week, including $29 B in 2-year paper, $35 B in 5s, and $29 B in 7s. When-issued yields are little changed this morning to lower currently, but the surge higher following Wednesday's Fed result has the 2-year rate testing 0.62% and the 5-year challenging 1.86%, both of which would be the highest stops in over 3 years. The wi 7-year is at 2.305%, having tested 2.335% (close to April's stop). Despite this run-up, yields may not attract strong domestic demand given the Fed is moving inexorably toward normalization. Many traders are also forecasting still higher rates with the 2-year projected to hit 0.70% and the 5-year at 2.0% before buyers come back. However, foreign investors should again support the auctions given short dated German yields are negative, while Japanese rates are near 0%. Meanwhile, curve strategies are difficult given uncertainty over the trajectory of the normalization process.
12:30 EDTU.S. equities have pulled back
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12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: put selling in the belly
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11:05 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped below 12.0
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10:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another heavy round
Euro$ interest rate options: another heavy round of trading has been the rule in the wake of the FOMC statement, higher dots and policy normalization crib sheet this week, though the price action has been relatively muted so far today. Among multiple packages there was a sale of 40k in November 68/71 put spreads against purchases of 10k in November 65/67 put spreads and 20k in 76/77 put spreads. This was thought to be a liquidation of upper strikes to put on purchases of the lower strikes to hedge against a deeper sell-off on the less benign interest rate outlook. There were others, including a sale of 10k in Blue December 72/73 call 1x2s, thought to be a roll-up to a higher strike. Also, a purchase of 40k in Green December 81/82/83/85 call condors was cited over the session. The December 2014 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.75, while the deferreds are mixed today, 0.5-1.0 ticks lower nearby, but 0.5-4.0 ticks firmer further out.
10:25 EDTDallas Fed dissenting hawk Fisher: concerns about financial excess
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading index edged up 0.2% to 103.8 in August
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Treasury Action: yields backed up from lows following the opening pop in stocks, which were bolstered by the Baba IPO, while the as expected modest increase on the LEI left little discernable mark on the rate complex. Alibaba is indicated at $80-83 according to NYSE market makers compared to its $68 IPO price, but hasn't yet opened due to lack of sellers. The T-note yield reversed from lows of 2.6% to clear 2.62% again compared to overnight highs of 2.655%. The 2s-10s spread is holding at +204 bp.
09:57 EDTDeutsche Bank home/personal care analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Brazilian Retail & HPC Analyst Moraes, European HPC Analyst Thompson and North American HPC Analyst Schmitz discuss the Brazilian HPC market and what global players have to say on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 22 at 10 am.
09:54 EDTCurrency volatility collapses on Scotland vote to remain in U.K.
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust October call option implied volatility is at 5 compared to level of 9 from September 18, December is at 4; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement after Scotland voted remain in the U.K.
09:39 EDTAlibaba IPO, Scottish 'no' vote, quadruple witching to highlight session
U.S. equity futures held steady in positive ground during the pre-market trading session, leading to a higher open for the broader market. The early strength comes on the heels of last night's news that Scotland had voted in favor of remaining within the United Kingdom. The focus of investors today will be the opening of the initial public offering of Alibaba (BABA). It is also "quadruple witching," the quarterly event marked by the expirations of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The event can lead to a volatile session and large volume, which be even more pronounced as the largest U.S. IPO in history takes place. In early trading, the Dow is up 79 points, the Nasdaq is up 14 points and the S&P is up 8 points.
09:30 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took a dive
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities rotated higher
U.S. equities rotated higher with global indices pretty diverse heading into Friday's gauntlet of the Scottish vote, which favored the status quo, and the Alibaba IPO that priced at $68/PS - the top end of its range. The Dow is 62-points higher, S&P gained 5-points and NASDAQ topped 13-points ahead of the open. Stocks around the globe were mixed, however, as Japan's N-225 surged 1.58% thanks to fresh cycle lows on the yen, while the Shanghai Comp rose 0.58%. But in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 is marginally lower as Catalonia considers its future and the UK FTSE 100 is 0.6% firmer as the union with Scotland remained in place. Yahoo shares were active within the NASDAQ, given its sizeable Alibaba holdings. Oracle shares sank 3% after CO Ellison retired to be replaced by two co-CEOs Hurd and Catz. Leading indicators are expected to rise modestly in August, likely leaving less imprint on the price action than any futures and options settlements today.
08:36 EDTJPMorgan retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is firmer
FX Action: USD-CAD is firmer into the Canadian CPI report at 8:30 EDT, moving up to intra day highs of 1.0980, after basing at 1.0940 in Asian dealings. Resistance is seen at 1.1000, with offers layered from 1.0980 to 1.1000. A softer than consensus CPI print however, could bring 1.1020 stops into view.
08:15 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 30 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 30 cents at $92.77/bbl into the N.Y. open, off its recent lows, but finding rally room difficult in light of weak demand and strong supply. Traders do however, see a floor around the $90 mark, as the Winter heating season begins to gear up in the Northern Hemisphere, which should begin to bolster demand.
07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
Open Internet Roundtable: Enforcement will consider ways to enforce the proposed new Open Internet rules, exploring the utility of various current and proposed enforcement tools in the Open Internet context and is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on September 19 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:17 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar is generally firmer
FX Update: The dollar is generally firmer today. EUR-USD is lower by over 50 pips from yesterday's New York closing levels, having seen a low of 1.2866. A similar price action has been seen in other pairings, including Cable which dropped back quite sharply, back under 1.6400, after logging a two-week high at 1.6525 as the market reacted to the decisive "No" to independence outcome of Scotland's referendum. USD-JPY hit a six-year high of 109.46 after Japan's Cabinet Office downgraded its economic assessment, though the yen rebounded during the London AM session, sending the pair back under 109.00. The Fed's statement this week has given an underpinning to the dollar, with the combination of the dovish tone yet hawkish undertones in the SEP having seen the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs and Treasury yields retain a perky tone.
06:45 EDTChinese bank CEO says central bank made $81.4B in loans, Reuters says
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 19
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05:45 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade is today
05:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar is trading generally firmer
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03:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY consolidates after the Tokyo-session surge
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September 18, 2014
15:00 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: the markets remain focused on the Scottish vote
Treasury Action: the markets remain focused on the Scottish vote, which should dominate trading tomorrow as the high degree of uncertainty should make for a volatile reaction to the outcome. The other news Friday will be the Alibaba IPO. There's little on the data calendar to spark interest with just August leading indicators on tap. Meanwhile, traders will be looking ahead to next week's supply with $93 B in short and intermediate dated coupons on tap, which could be a hard sell after the hawkish Fed Dot Plot. Quarter-end is fast approaching too, and flows could become significant. Many corporations are also closing in on fiscal year-end. Fedspeak resurfaces next week with at least 7 regional presidents already on the circuit. There's not a lot of important data between now and the end of the month, however, but the September nonfarm payroll report is due on October 3.
13:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility is 5% lower near 12.0
U.S. VIX equity volatility is 5% lower near 12.0 and is probing post-FOMC lows yesterday of 11.73, which would set sights back down at August lows of 11.24. It would seem that the Fed's smoke screen of retaining a dovish statement and more hawkish rate projections has sufficiently baffled the equity market to not upset the market rally, as stocks continue to edge higher to wind down the week. The approach of the Scottish vote results by tomorrow morning, Alibaba IPO and witching expiries could inspire a bounce in volatilty, but if all those ducks line up for the bulls it could also result in another stab in volatility into the 12-11 zone.
13:15 EDTTreasury $13 B 10-year TIPS was poor
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12:40 EDTU.S. Household net worth rose
U.S. Household net worth rose at a 7.1% rate in Q2 to a record-high $81.5 tln, following a 7.1% (was 7.6%) rate in Q1, according to the Fed's Z.1. Analysts expect a 7% growth rate in net worth in Q3, given equity and home price gains that should leave a 7% Q3 asset rise and a 3% liability climb, following respective Q2 gains of 6.8% and 4.8%. Net worth in Q2 sat 48% above the $55.0 (was $52.0) tln cyclical-trough in Q1 of 2009, and analysts've more than reversed the 19% six-quarter drop from the $67.9 (was $68.1) tln prior cyclical-peak in Q3 of 2007. Asset value growth in Q2 included a 4.1% growth pace for real estate, alongside 8.0% growth for financial asset values. Total liabilities continue to oscillate just 2.8% above the $13.6 (was $13.4) tln cycle-low in Q3 of 2011 that marked a hefty 6.9% decline from the $14.6 (was $13.8) tln cycle-high in Q3 of 2008. Before this cycle, outright drops in liabilities were rare, as analysts last saw a quarterly liability decline in Q1 of 1983 with a 1.9% (was 1.3%) drop. Before that analysts saw a drop in Q1 of 1975 of 0.5% (was 0.4%).
12:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: another whopper
Euro$ interest rate options: another whopper entailed the bearish purchase of 40k in Front June 90 puts (covered at 99.415). Earlier there was a purchase of 15k in Red December strangles (vol) as well. Active euro$s remain under pressure on the confusing signals from the Fed.
11:36 EDTSeptember Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has calmed down some
FX Action: USD-JPY has calmed down some, following its nearly 200-point romp higher since yesterday afternoon. The pairing has eased back into 108.65, after again failing to trade the 109 handle earlier. While USD-JPY is primed for further gains given the divergent Fed and BoJ policies, analysts may be in for a short period of consolidation into the weekend, where some profit taking could be set to emerge.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.289 B in notes
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged coupon offering for next week
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11:10 EDTMore euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x3 structure
More euro$ interest rate options: a large 2x3 structure was reported earlier that entailed a bearish purchase of 20k in Short October 88/90 put 2x3s (40k x 60k). There was also a bullish sale of 10k in Short December 87 puts vs 90/92 call spreads and a bearish purchase of 10k in both 87 puts and 88 puts on Short October. Other trades included the bearish purchase of a 5k in Front June 92/95 put 2x3s (10k x 15k), a purchase of 5k in Short October 88/90 put 2x3s, and a bullish 5k sale of 82/83/85/86 put condors. Euro$s remain under pressure in the wake of the Fed dots and normalization plans, with the deferreds up to 7-ticks lower out the back.
10:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury reopens $13 B in 10-year TIPS today
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on intra day lows
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10:40 EDTU.S. equities continue to forge higher
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10:35 EDTU.S. jobs update: the BLS reported a 7k upward revision to March payrolls
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 12
Gas inventories 90 Bcf build vs. consensus of 90 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTThe Philly Fed September drop to 22.5
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10:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: increased bearish put buying
Treasury Option Action: increased bearish put buying has been spotted at the short and intermediate areas between the rounds of data this morning, including the purchases of 15k in December 109 puts on 2-year futures and 5k in October 117 puts on 5-year futures. December 2-year futures are 1.5-ticks lower near 109-107, while December 5s are 9-ticks lower near 117-247.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B in notes
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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09:50 EDTU.S. preliminary employment benchmark revisions for the March data
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09:45 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:38 EDTMarket extends Fed-fueled gains at open
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09:20 EDTAnalysts saw big August drops for U.S. housing starts and permits
Analysts saw big August drops for U.S. housing starts and permits after divergent revisions in the prior two months that lowered the up-trend for housing starts on net, and that left a disappointing report overall. Starts and permits are only slowly reversing the poor sector performance through the seasonally critical Q2 home buying season, with likely headwinds from ongoing mortgage market dysfunction, consumer caution, and a reduction in distressed sales. Starts under construction, which drive new home construction, extended their remarkably steady pace of recovery. Analysts saw a 0.6% August rise that followed gains of 2.6% (was 2.9%) in July, and 1.9% (was 1.2%) in June. There hasn't been a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Analysts expect 23% Q3 growth rate for starts under construction that matches the pace of Q2 (was 22%). Analysts expect GDP growth of 3.0% in Q3 after a boost in Q2 growth to 4.4% from 4.2%, with residential construction growth of 6% in Q3 after an estimated Q2 boost to 8.9% growth from 7.5%.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy block trade
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09:00 EDTFed Chair Yellen didn't comment on policy in her prepared speech
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are fired up again
U.S. equities are fired up again in the aftermath of the mixed Fed reasoning yesterday and with European stocks higher, apparently thinking a Scottish "no" separation vote is in the bag. Yet jobless claims sank 36k and housing starts fell 14.4%, offering a typically mixed picture of the economic outlook, which cooled investor sentiment. Asia was mostly bullish as well with the Shanghai Comp uio 0.35%, while Japan's Nikkei shot 1.13% higher thanks to the rampant dollar, which nearly kissed 109.00. The Dow is 38-points higher, S&P gained 5-points and NASDAQ is up 12-points in pre-market action, below earlier highs. Rite Aid sank 9% after a large profits miss and Pier 1 tumbled 11% after slashing its earnings outlook, while United Natural Foods rallied over 3% after an earnigns beat. Agilent rallied 1.5% after CEO succession plans were put in place and Monsanto gained over 1% after rated a buy by Stifel Nicolas. The Philly Fed index remains a wildcard next.
08:50 EDTThe 36k U.S. initial claims plunge to 280k
The 36k U.S. initial claims plunge to 280k in the BLS survey week more than reversed the 12k Labor Day pop to 316k (was 315k) to leave what is now a lean start for claims in September despite the Labor Day surge. Claims have tightened considerably since the auto retooling period that produced a 279k cycle-low in mid-July. Claims are averaging 297k thus far in September, following higher averages of 303k in August, 296k in July, 315k in June and 312k in May. Today's 280k BLS survey week reading sits well below prior BLS readings of 299k in August, 303k in July, versus 314k in June and 327k in May. Analysts assume a 200k September payroll gain that sits above the disappointing 142k rise of August but below the 207k average of the last twelve months. Analysts assume a 200k per month payroll growth trend into year-end. Payrolls face ongoing upside risk from a firm Q3 trend for initial claims, producer sentiment and ADP, solid vehicle assemblies, and an ongoing consumer confidence climb back above mid-2013 levels.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts dropped 14.4% to 0.956 M in August
U.S. housing starts dropped 14.4% to 0.956 M in August after rebounding 22.9% to 1.117 M in July (was 1.093 M). The latter was the highest since November 2007. Single family starts slipped 2.4% following July's 11.1% jump. Multifamily starts dropped 31.7% after surging 44.9% in July. Building permits fell 5.6% to 0.998 M from July's revised 1.057 M (was 1.052 M).
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 36k to 280k in the week ended September 13
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08:33 EDTFutures suggest higher open following economic data
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is flat
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08:25 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
U.S. Housing Starts Preview: August housing starts should show the pace of starts slowing to 1,040k (median 1,035k) after a 15.7% leap in July to a 1,093k pace. The release will also include permit figures where analysts expect a slowdown to 1,04k from 1,057k in July. Analysts expect completions at 855k from 841k in July.
08:25 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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07:54 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a discussion
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07:53 EDTFDA to hold a teleconference
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07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Assessing and Enhancing Protections in Consumer Financial Services" on September 18 at 11 am. Webcast Link
07:49 EDTThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to hold a meeting
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07:47 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: curve flattening remains the dominate play
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07:40 EDTNYSSA to hold a roundtable
Investment Strategy Roundtable holds monthly meeting to discuss topics important to market participants at NYSSA New York offices on September 18 at 6 pm.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTINVEST Tennessee Equity Conference, LLC to hold a conference
INVEST Tennessee Equity Conference is being held in Nashville,Tennessee on September 18.
07:36 EDTCFA Institute to hold a conference
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07:34 EDTNYSSA to hold a discussion on FOREX Markets
FOREX Markets: Trading, Regulations, and Risk to be held at NYSSA New York offices on September 18.
07:30 EDTFed's reiteration of monetary policy lifts market
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open as the market looks to extend its gains from yesterday. The results of the FOMC meeting were in-line with expectations, and Chairman Yellen made some dovish comments during her press conference. U.S. markets and overseas markets responded by moving higher. Today Investors will be watching the Scottish vote on independence as well as data on domestic weekly jobless claims, housing starts and building permits, and the weekly natural gas inventory report.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been mixed
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06:23 EDTCurrencyShares Japanese Yen volatility flat, dollar at six-year high versus yen
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05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 18
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05:51 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is firmer across-the-board
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September 17, 2014
20:50 EDTJapan's trade deficit improved slightly to -948.5 B yen in August
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16:40 EDTFOMC - Diverging Statement and SEP Takeaways:
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16:05 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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16:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The September Philly Fed will be released on Thursday and the headline should ease to 25.0 (median 22.8) after the August jump to 28.0 from 23.9. The Empire State index has already been released for the month with a big gain to 27.5 from 14.7 last month. Despite this analysts expect that sentiment will ease overall for the month and bring the ISM-adjusted average down to 55 after two months at 56.
15:44 EDTCurrency September volatility elevated at 26 into Scotland vote
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 26, October is at 9, December is at 6; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
15:40 EDTRates getting back to "normal" levels:
Rates getting back to "normal" levels: Yellen downplayed fears that the Fed could fall behind the curve. It's necessary for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative posture longer than would be needed, she said. The question was posed why the SEP forecasts suggest the economy could be back to more normal levels of growth sooner than the funds rate target arrives there, and thus there's danger of the Fed getting behind the curve. Regarding a predictable pace of rate moves, she said such may have contributed to diminished volatility in the markets, she denied it had anything to do with the apparent complacency that might have led to the housing bubble of 2004. She did admit that some policymakers believe somewhat less of a mechanical pace might be better, but that will be up for discussion. With that, the press conference ended.
15:25 EDTFed balance sheet operations:
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15:11 EDTYellen says could take until end of decade to normalize balance sheet
Yellen says growth has been slow relative to past recoveries. Fed Chair Janet Yellen continues speaking in a press conference.
14:55 EDTYellen says 'considerable time' pledge conditional, linked to economy
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14:50 EDTThe FOMC Forecast revisions
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14:40 EDTFOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly
FOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly. The statement leaned to the dovish side give the retention of a couple of key phrases, "considerable time" and "significant underutilization of labor resources." The SEP forecasts were mixed, and to some extent internally inconsistent. The "Dot Plot" turned a bit more hawkish than at the June meeting, with more members looking for the first rate hike next year, and with a slightly higher trajectory of rates. On the other hand, growth estimate for 2014 and 2015 were lowered, although the PCE price index for this year was left steady at 1.5% to 1.7%, and raised for both 2015 and 2016.
14:36 EDTWeek of 9/26 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD had spent the morning session
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14:30 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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14:25 EDTFOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans
FOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans in conjunction with the statement. The first step, when economic conditions and the economic outlook warrant a less accommodative posture, will be to raise the funds rate, to be achieved "primarily by adjusting the interest rate it pays on excess reserve balance." The Fed will use "overnight reverse repos and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the funds rate." The ORR will be used only "to the extent necessary and will phase it out when it is no longer needed." The Fed's security holdings will be reduced in a "gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal, the timing of which will depend on the economy.
14:24 EDTFed changes 2015 inflation outlook to 1.6%-1.9% from 1.5%-2%
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14:22 EDTFed alters 2015 unemployment forecast to 5.4%-5.6% from 5.4%-5.7%
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14:21 EDTFed cuts 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%-3% from 3%-3.2%
14:20 EDTFed maintains 2014 inflation forecast of 1.5%-1.7%
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed higher
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar spiked higher
FX Action: The dollar spiked higher after the FOMC announcement, despite the Fed keeping the "considerable time" phrase. Yields moved higher, as equities moved from positive to negative, and back to positive again. EUR-USD fell from 1.2960 to 1.2897, as USD-JPY ran up to 108.18 from 107.60. The dollar appears to be moving on the back of divergent central bank policies, as the BoJ and ECB are both still in easing mode, wile the Fed moves toward tightening, albeit at a snail's pace.
14:19 EDTFed lowers 2014 unemployment forecast to 5.9%-6% from 6%-6.1%
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14:18 EDTFed retains 'considerable time' language in policy statement
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14:18 EDTFed lowers 2014 GDP growth outlook to 2%-2.2% from 2.1%-2.3%
14:15 EDTThe FOMC kept the "considerable time" phrase regarding interest rates
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14:03 EDTFed says indicators suggest 'significant underutilization' of labor resources
The Fed statement read, "On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
14:02 EDTAugust Construction Spending to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:02 EDTWeek of 9/26 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:02 EDTFed lowers monthly bond purchases by $10B
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14:00 EDTFed keeps 'considerable time' language in statement
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14:00 EDTT-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement
T-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement. Treasuries are in positive territory ahead of the statement and the SEP release. The Committee will alter its forward guidance to some extent, but will it lean to the dovish or the hawkish side is the question. Longer dated maturities are outperforming in a bullish curve flattening trade on speculation Chair Yellen and Co. will remain relatively friendly and retain the "considerable time" language. Additionally, there's expectation for slight downward revisions to some of the growth forecasts, as well as inflation estimates. Analysts think it would behoove policymakers to drop the date-dependent language sooner rather than later to provide more policy flexibility going forward.
13:45 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
FOMC Forecast revisions will be revealed today, in tandem with the policy statement (and later in the October 8 FOMC minutes). The revisions should prove modest, though analysts do expect small downward bumps in high-end GDP growth estimates for 2014 and 2015, alongside a modest trimming in high-end headline and core PCE chain price forecasts for both years as well. There is little need for adjustment to the jobless rate and Fed funds rate forecasts. The Fed will also add 2017 to its forecast horizon, and analysts expect GDP growth estimates to show a moderation in growth toward the 2.6% long-term trend growth estimate, alongside a further upward-convergence of low-end inflation forecasts toward 2%, and a small cyclical drop in the jobless rate estimates to a band around 5.1%. Analysts assume that Fed GDP estimates will remain modestly above most market forecasts, just as the inflation estimates continue to be skewed lower. For a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts, see our policy outlook page.
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options
Treasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options included bearish purchases of 35k in October 123/123.5 put spreads over the course of the session. Earlier there were bullish purchases of 10k December 127 calls as well. Some delta covering took place at 124-125 and 124-13, according to sources. December 10s are trading hands 3.5-ticks firmer near 124-105, compared to their 124-155 to 124-06 range.
11:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has firmed up some
FX Action: The dollar has firmed up some versus the European majors and the yen, with EUR-USD taking out the London low of 1.2944, and easing into 1.2938, and USD-JPY on intra day highs over 107.60. The euro had touched 1.2981 in the aftermath of the cooler CPI data, as USD-JPY made 107.15 lows. Activity is likely to slow into the FOMC announcement, though it appears the market is leaning toward a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed.
11:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Median CPI inched up 0.1% in August
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11:09 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
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10:45 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 12
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10:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed downside surprises for August headline and core CPI, thanks to weakness in apparel, medical, and tobacco prices alongside an expected big energy price hit. Analysts saw a 0.2% August headline CPI drop with a flat core price figure that left a 1.7% y/y rise for both measures. Analysts also saw a surprisingly lean round of 2014 current account deficits via a surprising Q2 improvement that followed a downwardly-revised Q1 gap, with revisions concentrated in the investment income components. The weak CPI report implies less pressure on the Fed to address the "considerable time" reference at today's FOMC meeting, though the NAHB September pop to a 59 nine-year high and less financial market dislocation in the revised current account figures do cap downside economic risks as well.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained below highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index climbed to 59 in September
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10:01 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
September Housing Market Index at 59 vs. consensus of 56
09:47 EDTMarket opens quietly with investors on Fed watch
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09:40 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. current account deficit narrowed unexpectedly in Q2
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09:15 EDTFOMC began today's meeting
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish structure on 5-year futures
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09:05 EDTThe 0.2% August U.S. CPI headline drop
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09:01 EDTHouse Foreign Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:50 EDTU.S. current account deficit narrowed $3.6 B to -$98.5 in Q2
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.2% in August, while the core rate was unchanged
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields stumbled lower
Treasury Action: yields stumbled lower after the unchanged core reading on CPI, which gives the Fed even more breathing room on the timing of any shift in policy guidance, in line with WSJ reports yesterday that "considerable time" would be retained this time. The T-note yield stalled out over 2.585% ahead of the dat and reversed to 2.56% after failing to clear 2.60% yesterday. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +201 bp, about 3 bp tighter on the week.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell modestly
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08:40 EDTVanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF volatility elevated into FOMC decision
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08:35 EDTFutures show little reaction to CPI report
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08:31 EDTCurrent Account data reported
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08:30 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has steadied
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08:15 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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08:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:05 EDTFederal Reserve Bank Chairperson Janet Yellen holds a press briefing
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08:02 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:01 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold an open meeting
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07:56 EDTFDA to hold a public hearing on Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA)
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07:51 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
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07:49 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 7.9%
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07:35 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Travel & Leisure and U.K. Small & Mid-Cap Conference to be held in London, England on September 17-19.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase, as suggested by the WSJ's Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, and news of a liquidity injection by the PBoC to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.565% after testing 2.62% on Friday. German Bunds are underperforming following an upward revision to August HICP inflation. U.K. Gilts shrugged off solid labor data and instead focused on the cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, an important indicator for the Fed, but it won't have much impact on today's policy vote. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due, along with the Q2 current account, and weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12. The NY Fed will not intervene today.
07:26 EDTFutures drift following yesterday’s advance
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07:24 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTUBS to hold a conference
17th Annual Support and Business Services Conference to be held in London, England on September 17.
07:23 EDTWilliam Blair to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTFX Update Narrow ranges have prevailed
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:48 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 24, October is at 9, December is at 7; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
06:45 EDTEuro zone August inflation rate revised upwards. AP reports
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06:43 EDTChina's central bank injects funds into banks, China Daily reports
China's central bank has injected $81B into the country's five largest banks, Sina.com reported, according to China Daily. Sina.com cited a banking analyst as its source for the news, China Daily stated. Reference Link
06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 17
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04:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low
FX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low to a six-day low of 1.0948. Better Canadian manufacturing data and a steadying in commodity prices have levels helped the CAD rebound, along with position squaring ahead of the FOMC. The March major-trend peak at 1.1278 back looks out of reach. Support is at 1.0920-33 (which encompasses a recent low). August CPI data on Friday will be the next domestic focus for the Loonie, which analysts expect to dip to 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y.
02:20 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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September 16, 2014
17:25 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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16:34 EDTSeptember Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
16:20 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreigners bought $57.7 B in net U.S. assets in July
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15:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Markets were awakened from sleepy pre-FOMC trade with the call by WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath that the Fed is set to retain "considerable time" in its policy lexicon, however premature that conclusion. Prior to that juncture stocks had been underwater and yields above lows after the tame PPI print, still wary of the FOMC, Scotland and the Alibaba IPO all stacking up later in the week. But in the wake of the Hilsen-call that all reversed and the dollar's gains were also punctured. There were also reports that China is set to ramp up liquidity for its 5 biggest banks as well.
14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle, after slipping to 106.82 lows earlier. The Fed will determine direction after the announcement tomorrow, where after today's dollar softness, either direction could have some room to run, depending on the FOMC scale on the hawk-dove scale.
13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures redoubled gains
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13:24 EDTMoody's downgrades Costa Rica rating to Ba1 from Baa3; Outlook stable
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13:00 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD peaked out at 1.2995
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12:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over lower
Treasury Action: yields rolled over lower as the bond market embraces the idea that the FOMC could keep their language intact, which seems to prejudge the outcome a bit since they're just looking over the charts and presentations at the Fed right now and have yet to reach a decision. Yellen is also known for her switch to concensus-building as chairwoman, so this is far from over. Yet the T-note yield stalled over 2.585% and eased back to 2.567%, even with Wall Street about 0.5% higher now. The dollar index dove from 84.372 highs to break back below 84.0 again.
12:20 EDTU.S. Fed to stick to "near zero" rate language
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11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were generally solid, but underperformed recent results
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11:30 EDTNY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes dated from November 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered
10:55 EDTU.S. equities ramped to highs
U.S. equities ramped to highs while shrugging off a wall of worry from the FOMC, Scottish referendum and Alibaba IPO, because it's Tuesday and perhaps corporations still have some record buy-backs to execute. Computer HFTs may also be leaning on buy-stops, helping lift the major indices back into the green. Yields have also backed up from lows, with the T-note yield bouncing from 2.55% lows to clear 2.58% again. Meanwhile, the NY Fed is about to inject $2.0-2.5 B in liquidity.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024. The buyback is supportive at the margine, but yields remain little changed to fractionally lower ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow. The Fed is universally expected to trim another $10 B from QE purchases, with there considerable uncertainty over possible changes in forward guidance.
10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased into 1.1003 lows
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are firming again
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09:40 EDTMarket extends recent losses with drop at open
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09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy bearish put demand
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09:11 EDTNovember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTOctober Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTSeptember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
09:11 EDTAugust Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTJuly Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:10 EDTCitigroup credit market analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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09:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 14 cents
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:55 EDTThe flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase
The flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. Overall, goods prices have climbed by 1.4% through the first eight months of 2014, while service prices have increased by a slightly larger 1.6%. On the old SOP basis, analysts saw a 0.3% headline PPI drop that followed a 0.1% rise in July and a big 0.7% increase in June. For September analysts expect a 0.1% PPI headline and core price gains thanks to ongoing restraint in energy prices, which also accompanied food price weakness to depress last Friday's August trade price figures alongside flat core price figures. Analysts expect 0.1% declines for CPI and PCE chain prices, with respective core price gains of 0.2% and 0.1%.
08:50 EDTU.S. Treasury net TIC flows preview:
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar is marginally higher
FX Action: The dollar is marginally higher in the aftermath of the in-line PPI data, taking EUR-USD down 10 points to just under 1.2945 and USD-JPY up 10 points to 107.15. Equity futures remain moderately under water, as yields moved fractionally lower. All is calm in FX Land ahead of tomorrow's FOMC, though trade should continue to be biased into the dollar.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower
Treasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower following the flat reading on headline PPI and modest uptick on core after the apparently delayed report was released early. The benchmark T-note yield continued to probe overnight lows near 2.56% as the Fed meeting kicks off, down from Asian highs near 2.62% and with the 2.50% psych support likely holding for now. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed a basis point or two to +203 bp from Monday's close. TIC inflows are due next.
08:40 EDTU.S. PPI was unchanged overall, while the core edged up 0.1% in August
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08:36 EDTFutures remain lower following producer prices report
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08:31 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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08:25 EDTU.S. PPI report may be delayed
U.S. PPI report may be delayed a bit due to technical issues, according to wire reports.
08:24 EDTThe Federal Reserve System Board of Governors holds a Closed Meeting
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:19 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
Open Internet Roundtable--Mobile Broadband considers the application of Open Internet rules to mobile broadband, focusing on consumers' use of mobile broadband and on reasonable network management practices in the mobile context is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on September 16 at 2:45 pm. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index declined 2.6%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was largely range bound overnight, with EUR-USD near 1.2950, and USD-JPY flirting with the 107 mark. The commodity bloc reversed some of its recent losses, with both the AUD and CAD perking up modestly. The U.S. calendar will reveal August PPI data at 8:30 EDT, followed by July TIC flow data at 9:00 EDT. Equity futures indicate a slightly lower Wall Street open, while Treasury yields are a bit softer.
07:55 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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07:46 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.56%. Global bonds are mostly higher, in part on risk off trades as equities declined ahead of the FOMC decision and the Scottish vote. Asian buying in bonds was particularly noted. Data overnight was somewhat supportive too with the German ZEW declining, although less than feared, while China's FDI dropped to a four-year low. U.K. CPI slowed to 1.5% y/y, in line with expectations. Today's U.S. calendar includes August PPI, the July TIC data, and weekly chain store sales. The NY Fed will buy $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024.
07:42 EDTCanaccord to hold a conference
Digital Finance & Money Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:37 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
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07:28 EDTFutures lower as Fed gets ready to meet
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07:24 EDTBernstein to hold a conference
11th Annual Pan European Strategic Decisions Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar is been net steady
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 16
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06:08 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 29.42, 50-day moving average is 29.04
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05:59 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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05:50 EDTGreece sold EUR 1 B of 13 week Treasury Bills
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03:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s
FX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s after recovering fro a Tokyo-session dip to 106.92. BoJ's Kuroda said that "analysts are only half way there" with regard to achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, though this didn't impact the yen much being very much boilerplate. The pair left a 107.32 high in early London trade with the dollar holding firm into tomorrow's Fed announcement, but the market looks to lack the impetus for a test of Friday's six-year peak at 107.39. Offers are reported around 107.40-50. Recent data out of Japan have maintained the view that the BoJ is heading for further monetary stimulus, which contrasts the Fed's course, albeit gradual, towards tightening. Analysts remain bullish on the back of yield differentials, though are wary of risk aversion in global markets, which, if sustained, could see the Japanese currency snap higher on position squaring in yen-funded carry positions. Support in USD-JPY is marked at 106.50 and 105.94-106.000.
02:31 EDTSeptember Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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02:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered from a moderate dip in Asia
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September 15, 2014
17:16 EDTAugust Pending Home Sales Index to be released at 10:00
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market consolidated above recent lows on Monday, just ahead of the FOMC decision this week after spending much of the month discounting a change in the "considerable time" forward guidance. Negative economic updates from China and the OECD overnight dissipated into the North American session with the surge in the headline Empire State index reading and subpar industrial production. Blue chip stocks traded slightly lower, but the tech sector took a deeper spill ahead of the hot Alibaba IPO.
14:50 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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14:05 EDTNASDAQ comp extended declines to more than 1%
NASDAQ comp extended declines to more than 1%, while the blue chips remain just narrowly underwater. Speculation that investors are making room for the mega-IPO from Alibaba continues to swirl and offers as good an explanation as any of the tech sector divergence. There was also an interview in the WSJ of a venture capitalist Bill Gurley hinting at a bubble in Silicon Valley start-ups with high cash burn rates, which probably didn't help much either on a light pre-FOMC Monday that has left Treasury yields largely inert.
13:11 EDTAugust Personal Income and Outlays to be released at 08:30
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12:50 EDTStill more euro$s interest rate options: jockeying at the short-end
Still more euro$s interest rate options: jockeying at the short-end remains one outlet in otherwise pretty dull pre-FOMC dealings, with the long-end locked in place under 2.60% on the T-note. Sources confirmed a sale of 30k in Blue October put spreads were sold, though unknown whether a liquidation or new bullish position. Also, in a block trade there was a 10k purchase of Blue December put spreads vs a sale of Short December 86/87 put spreads as well. More churn as Janet and company prepare to amaze the markets on Wednesday. Deferred contracts are still 0.5-2.0 ticks firmer.
11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY bids into the 107.00 level
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $47 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:25 EDTMore on euro$ interest rate options: ahead of the FOMC
More on euro$ interest rate options: ahead of the FOMC the rate futures have been hopping, with a bullish purchase of 5k in Blue November 74/75 call spreads. There was also a large sale of 20k in Short December 85/87 put spreads for a purchase of 15k in Green December 75/77 put spreads. And a sale of 5k in Short December 87/88 put 1x2s. The Sep 2014 contract is flat near 99.765, while the deferreds are still up just 0.5-2.5 ticks.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $0.998 B in bonds
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill offering for Tuesday
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts expect the FOMC to drop the "considerable time"
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has retreated
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10:03 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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09:50 EDTThe disappointing 0.1% August U.S. industrial production drop
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09:42 EDTFutures action leads to quiet open, averages lower in early trade
Stock futures traded near fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, though the futures drifted into positive territory following the industrial production report. The market is coming of its first losing week in the past six and investors will be hoping to get the market moving in the right direction today, though the economic calendar will be light for the remainder of the day. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 23 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production unexpectedly dipped 0.1% in August
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar faded slightly
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed action
Euro$ interest rate options: mixed action included that 5k purchase of a leg of a Blue December 72/73/75 call tree/ladder and sale of the two other legs. There was also a bearish purchase of 8k December 95/96 put spreads against a sale of a December 97 call. Sources also noted heavy liquidation in block trade earlier totaling some 125k in 86, 87, and 88 puts. The underlying rate futures are a little perkier despite the impending FOMC decision and firm Empire reading, with the October contract flat, but the deferreds up to 2.5 ticks firmer.
09:05 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: August industrial production data should increase 0.3% (median 0.3%) following a 0.4% gain in July. Capacity utilization should tick up to 79.3% (median 79.3%) from 79.2% in July. The soft August employment report could weigh on the release as could our forecast for a 1% decline in utility production for the month.
08:55 EDTThe Empire State sentiment pop to a 27.54 five-year high in September
The Empire State sentiment pop to a 27.54 five-year high in September reversed the August drop to 14.69 from a 25.60 four-year high in July, versus a 0.83 six-month low last November. The ISM-adjusted measure bounced to 53.4, after falling to 52.9 in August from a higher 54.8 in July, versus a 46.6 three-year low in both December and June of 2013. Today's September Empire State bounce bucks the downdraft analysts assume from a likely ongoing unwind of the summer vehicle assembly rate spike that lifted the various sentiment surveys, though the Empire index has oscillated fairly independently of the other sentiment indicators in recent quarters. Analysts expect a September Philly Fed drop to 25.0 from 28.0, a Richmond Fed drop to 7.0 from 12.0, a Dallas Fed bounce to 11.0 from 7.1, an ISM drop to 58.0 from 59.0, and an ISM-NMI decline to 57.0 from 59.6. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to slip to 55 in September from a 56 cycle-high in July and August that was also seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 through Q2, 52 through Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities remained marginally little changed
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08:51 EDTThe Federal Reserve System Board of Governors holds a Closed Meeting
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08:51 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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08:45 EDTU.S. September Empire State manufacturing index surged 12.9 points to 27.5
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields held below highs
Treasury Action: yields held below highs following the surprise surge in headline Empire State reading, though the employment component was sharply weaker. That left the T-note yield hovering around 2.60% following its clearance of 2.62% overnight. Stocks remain in shallow negative territory as well after the data. The 2s-10s spread is near +204 bp.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
FX Action: The dollar edged higher after the firmer Empire State index outcome, taking EUR-USD to the 1.2910 level. USD-JPY moved a few points higher to 107.30. Equity futures hover near flat, while Treasury yields are steady. FX trade remains quiet, though analysts look for USD gains into Wednesday's FOMC announcement.
08:35 EDTFutures continue to suggest quiet open
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08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 63 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 63 cents at $91.64/bbl in early N.Y. trade, after basing under $90.65 overnight. Losses came on the back of weaker Chinese production data, and a generally stronger dollar. Into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, where a more hawkish statement could be in the cards, analysts look for the dollar to firm up further, keeping pressure on oil prices. Support is seen at last week's $90.43 low, though stops at $90.00 could be targeted on a move below that level.
08:09 EDTBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries corrected slightly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries corrected slightly higher in light trading overnight after major losses last week, as the markets await several key events. The 10-year yield slipped to 2.59% after testing 2.62% earlier. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday to exacerbate thin conditions. Overseas bond markets are mixed with core sovereign yields modestly lower too with the German Bund dipping to 1.069% from Friday's 1.08% close. Equities are little changed. Providing some support for bonds were disappointing production and loan data from China and the OECD's cut in growth forecasts for the largest developed economies. Key factors this week include the Wednesday's FOMC decision where there's significant risk of a hawkish change in forward guidance. As for the Scottish referendum, the "No's" have a fractional lead. The ECB will begin it TRLTRO. And, regional elections in Germany over the weekend showed a rise in the anti-euro AFD party. The U.S. calendar is thin today with August industrial production and the September Empire State index. The NY Fed will buy $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:43 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a forum
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07:40 EDTCRT Capital to hold a conference
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07:39 EDTUBS to hold a conference
Global Transport, Travel & Leisure Conference 2014 to be held in London, England on September 15-16.
07:37 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTKeefe Bruyette to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTInvestors hope market will get back on track
U.S. equity futures are trading slightly below fair value as investors hope the market can back to its winning ways. Last week the market posted its first losing week in the past six. Investors will remain anxious ahead of the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday. There have been indications that the central bank could eliminate its assertion that interest rates will remain low for a long time. The market will also have to look past Chinese industrial output data, which came in well below expectations.
07:20 EDTSterne Agee to hold a field trip
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar has opened the FOMC week on a firm footing
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06:55 EDTChina reports weak industrial output growth, Bloomberg reports
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06:10 EDTOECD cuts growth forecast for the largest developed countries
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 15
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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September 13, 2014
17:30 EDTChina industrial output growth lowest since 2008, WSJ says
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September 12, 2014
21:22 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:22 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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21:22 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
August Housing Starts Permits will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.055M
21:22 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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21:22 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
August Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 79.3%
21:22 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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16:47 EDTSeptember Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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13:05 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30
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13:05 EDT Corporate Profits to be released at 08:30
12:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spread widening
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12:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has topped out at 1.1083
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11:48 EDTS&P raises Greece to B from B- with Stable outlook
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11:35 EDTeBay wouldn't comment on rumors of Google bid
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11:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed upside surprises for the August retail sales and July business inventory data that lifted Q2 and Q3 GDP growth prospects, and that put a positive spin on the U.S. economic data as analysts approach next week's FOMC meeting. Analysts now assume a 3.0% (was 2.8%) GDP growth clip in Q3 that follows a boost in Q2 GDP growth to 4.4% from 4.2%. Analysts also saw an expectations-led bounce in Michigan sentiment to an 84.6 one-year high that defied headwinds from the deteriorating geopolitical backdrop. The trade price report for August revealed big headline price declines led by petroleum and food, alongside a flat core price path.
10:45 EDTU.S. equities remained near lows
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10:35 EDTThe 0.4% July U.S. business inventory rise
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10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a boost to bearish put trade
Euro$ interest rate options: a boost to bearish put trade has lifted the aforementioned purchase of Green November 73/76 put spreads vs sale of Short November 85/87 put spreads from the 30k originally reported to some 80k now over the course of the session. Euro$ are still as much as 9-ticks lower further out the curve.
10:20 EDTThe September Michigan sentiment climb to 84.6
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar is a touch softer
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: good is bad
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10:14 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
July Business Inventories up 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.4% for the month
10:05 EDTU.S. preliminary consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 for September
U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 for September, after edging up to 82.5 in the final August print. The index has bounced from the 2014 low of 80.0 in March and is the highest since July 2007. The strength was in the outlook index which climbed to 75.6 from 71.3. The current conditions index fell to 98.5 from 99.8. Inflation expectations dipped. The 1-year ahead outlook slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% previously. And the 5-year ahead measure slid to 2.8% from 2.9%.
10:00 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: Preliminary Michigan Sentiment is forecast to slip to 82.0 (median 80.0) in September from 82.5 in August. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month rose to 45.2 from 44.5 and the RBC/CASH Index was up 52.4 from 51.5. Despite these improvements in the secondary measures of confidence analysts continue to expect some give back of August strength in Michigan and Consumer Confidence.
09:50 EDTTreasury Action: the vicious cycle of yield and dollar gains resumed
Treasury Action: the vicious cycle of yield and dollar gains resumed with the T-note yield trespassing above 2.60% for the first time in over a month, now eyeing 2.614% July 31 highs. This has meanwhile given the dollar index another leg up to session highs of 84.41 as the euro sags toward $1.29 and the yen to 107.39 vs the dollar. The move may pause to reflect ahead of the next round of sentiment and inventories before resuming. Stocks opened weaker despite the bullish signals from USD-JPY near highs, while commodities and commodity currencies continue to sink. Note, analysts have raised our Q2 GDP estimate to 4.4% from 4.2% based on the retail sales data, while leaving Q3 GDP at 2.8%; Goldman just raised their Q3 GDP estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%.
09:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
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09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: on the defensive again
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09:34 EDTMarket has quiet open, slightly lower in early trade
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09:30 EDTThe 0.6% August retail sales headline rise
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities marginally extended losses
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09:00 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
The U.S. trade price report revealed the expected August headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, while core prices were flat in August despite declines in import prices ex-oil and export prices ex-agriculture. Commodity prices are unwinding earlier 2014 boosts from harsh winter weather and Middle East turmoil. Trade prices have more generally been moving sideways since 2011 as global growth weakness has allowed commodity price restraint, as has the 1%-3% annual rate of climb for the dollar since 2011 that has gained steam into September. Despite today's drops, export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-petroleum are showing resilience in 2014 overall, with respective year-to-date gains of 0.2% and 0.4%. For the remaining August inflation reports, analysts expect 0.1% headline declines for CPI and PCE chain prices alongside a flat PPI headline figure, with core price gains of 0.2% for CPI and 0.1% for PCE chain prices and PPI.
08:50 EDTU.S. import prices dropped 0.9% while export prices slipped 0.5%
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied marginally
FX Action: The dollar rallied marginally following the better retail sales, and in-line import price data, taking EUR-USD briefly toward 1.3930 and USD-JPY up to 107.35. Equity futures are slightly underwater still, while yields are a touch firmer.
08:45 EDTU.S. August retail sales climbed 0.6%, though excluding autos rose 0.3%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
Treasury Action: yields remained elevated following the slightly better than expected retail sales reading, along side weak but better than expected trade prices. The T-note yield had challenged the 2.59% area prior to the data before stalling, having risen from lows near 2.55% overnight. This brings the late-July 2.614% high into focus heading toward next week's FOMC meeting, with 2.692% July 3 highs above. First, analysts have another round of consumer sentiment and business inventories on tap.
08:36 EDTFutures remain quiet following economic reports
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up a penny at $92.84/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up a penny at $92.84/bbl, coming off its overnight highs near $93.70. Traders look for short covering into the weekend, though the combination of a stronger dollar, slack demand, and abundant supply should limit gains to the $94 region.
08:20 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries
Treasury Market Outlook: weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries and the 10-year yield traded up to 2.57%. The German Bund is holding over the 1.0% level for a third straight session. Equities are little changed and mixed. Worries the FOMC will drop its "considerable time" language at next week's meeting continues to weigh on the markets, along with disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. In overnight news, the "No's" are still in the lead in the latest Scottish referendum poll. Eurozone production was stronger than expected. Chinese lending data was weaker than expected. And, new sanctions take hold on Russia. In the U.S., the data calendar is heavy with August retail sales headlining, while trade prices, business inventories and the preliminary consumer sentiment index are due too.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:27 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust September volatility elevated
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07:20 EDTFutures quiet ahead of August sales figures
U.S. equity futures are trading near fair value. Volume is light ahead of the advance retail sales report for August which is due out at 8:30 am ET. Analysts are predicting that sales rose 0.6% overall ,while the core reading which excludes autos and gas is expected to have risen 0.3%. Other data points due out today include the Import Price Index, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index, and reports on business inventories.
07:16 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 12
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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04:01 EDTWeek of 9/24 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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04:01 EDTWeek of 9/15 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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September 11, 2014
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
Week of 9/10 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $5.8B
16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:32 EDTWeek of 9/19 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:00 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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14:58 EDTIPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index volatility flat
IPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index overall option implied volatility of 21 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: the FOMC is in view and will start to dominate trading
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14:37 EDTTeucrium Wheat Fund volatility flat as wheat trends lower
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14:35 EDTTeucrium Soybean Fund volatility flat as soybeans trend to two-year low
Teucrium Soybean Fund overall option implied volatility of 23 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
14:25 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
U.S. Retail Sales Preview: August retail sales will be released on Friday and analysts expect the headline to grow by 0.4% (median 0.5%) with the ex-autos figure up 0.1% for the month. This follows respective July rates of unchanged and 0.1%. The outlook for August retail sales is modest but should be held up by back to school shopping at the beginning of the month as well as firm auto sales as analysts discussed in Monday's commentary.
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields stayed elevated
Treasury Action: yields stayed elevated to round out the session, with the largely as-expected budget deficit narrowing. The T-note yield is holding near 2.53% after stabbing below 2.52% on the solid bond reopening, having bubbled back up from 2.50% lows earlier. The 2s-10s spread remained stuck near +197 bp for the bulk of the session.
14:10 EDTTreasury posted a $128.7 B budget deficit for August
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14:01 EDTTreasury Budget data reported
August Treasury Budget at -$128.7B vs consensus of -$130.0B
13:55 EDTU.S. Treasury budget preview:
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B bond reopening was solid
Treasury's $13 B bond reopening was solid. The bond priced well, stopping through at 3.240%, the richest level of the day, versus 3.265% at the bid deadline (and it compares to the 3.224% award rate for the $16 B August new issue). There were $34.7 B in bids for a 2.67 cover, better than both last month's 2.60 and the 2.42 average. Indirect bidders took 45.5% versus the the prior 45.9% and the 43.7% average. Direct bidders accepted 21.8%, a little weaker that the 24.4% in August, while primary dealers were awarded 32.8%, a little more than the prior 29.8%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields dove on the solid bond reopening
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13:12 EDTAugust Durable Goods Orders to be released at 08:30
13:12 EDTWeek of 9/20 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has made its way to a 1.1041 peak
FX Action: USD-CAD has made its way to a 1.1041 peak, a better than four-month high. A softer risk backdrop has weighed on the CAD, as have weaker oil and commodity prices, and USD favorable interest rate differentials. The April high of 1.1053 marks initial resistance, while above there, the 1.1070 region will be targeted.
12:35 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B reopening
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B reopening completes this week's offering, which have so far yield rather average results. The wi is trading at 3.265%, after testing as cheap as 3.275% earlier today and as rich as 3.22% on Tuesday. Like the prior two auction legs, the impending FOMC meeting is likely to restrain demand as the Fed is universally expected to trim another $10 B from QE (it's on course to be completed in October), with the potential that the "considerable time" language is dropped in advance of rate hikes next year. With that in mind, the curve is showing a shift back to steepeners, which could be a deterrent for buyers. The auction should get solid support from an ongoing yield grab, and especially from overseas accounts. The indirect bid on yesterday's 10-year was the highest since March 2011. The August 30-year auction was awarded at 3.224% and garnered a 2.60 cover (2.42 average) and a 45.9% indirect bid (43.7% average). Direct bidders accepted 24.4% while primary dealers were awarded 29.8%.
12:12 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund volatility flat as corn trades at four-year low
Teucrium Corn Fund overall option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement as USDA raises U.S. corn yield forecast to record.
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mulling open interest
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.314 B in notes
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11:15 EDTToday's U.S. QSS service consumption data
Today's U.S. QSS service consumption data for Q2 suggests a modest $5 B boost in service consumption in the next GDP report, and analysts now assume a boost in headline real Q2 GDP growth to 4.4% from 4.2%. For other revisions, analysts expect Q2 boosts of $7 B for construction and $2 B for net exports, but downward revisions of $2 B for wholesale inventories and $4 B for factory inventories. Analysts assume Q3 GDP growth OF 2.8%, with a 2.0% growth rate for Q3 consumption. Today's QSS data reveal a 6.5% Q2 nominal growth clip after a lean 1.5% Q1 rate and 7.7% pace in Q4 of last year, versus nominal service growth of 3.4% in Q2, 3.7% in Q1, and 6.1% in Q4. The hospital sector posted a Q2 growth bounce to 10.6% after a 5.7% contraction rate in Q1 and 13.7% growth rate in Q4 of last year, to leave what is still a notable net underperformance for the health care sector in 2014.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $13 B 10-yar TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 5
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
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10:30 EDTMore from BoJ governor Kuroda:
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10:06 EDTQuarterly Services Survey Information Revenue data reported
Quarterly Services Survey Information Revenue up 0.8% for the quarter
10:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts expect the FOMC to drop the "considerable time"
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09:47 EDTHouse Committee on Small Business to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Contracting and Workforce holds a hearing entitled, "The Decline in Business Formation: Implications for Entrepreneurship and the Economy" with Chief Economist Moutray of the National Association of Manufacturers and EVP Dearie of the Financial Services Forum on September 11 at 10 am. Webcast Link
09:43 EDTMarket opens lower as country commemorates 2001 attack
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected and the economic calendar is relatively quiet for the remainder of the day, with the natural gas storage change report and the Treasury budget for August due later. Last night the President outlined the U.S. strategy against ISIL on the eve of the commemoration of the September 11, 2001 attack. In early trading, the Dow is down 54 points, the Nasdaq is down 12 points and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was smacked down to 106.65
FX Action: USD-JPY was smacked down to 106.65, after posting trend highs of 107.14 into the N.Y. open. The market appeared to have gotten a bit ahead of itself after taking out the 107 mark, with intra day longs bailing out on the return under 107. Offers are said to be thick from 107.15 all the way to 107.50, though following comments overnight from the BoJ's Kuroda, further yen strength may be fleeting. The central bank chief said he would not hesitate to ease again in order to achieve the CPI target.
09:30 EDTCan the Fed Drop "Considerable Time" Without Spooking the Markets?
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09:28 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures recouped some losses
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities slumped with European bourses
U.S. equities slumped with European bourses turning lower again as concerns about centrifugal forces on the continent give rise to fresh investor doubts following recent poll swings in Scotland. In addition, confirmation of the latest round of EU sanctions on Russia added to the bearish mix, leaving Russian shares 0.6-1.2% lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.5% lower, while in Asia the Nikkei rallied 0.76% thanks to USD-JPY trespassing over 6-year highs of 107.00. The Dow is 76-points lower, S&P sank 9-points and NASDAQ is off 16-points ahead of the opening bell. The 11k rebound in jobless claims wasn't particularly helpful, keeping focus on the downside. After stoking yesterday's rally following the UBS upgrade on Twitter, that micro-blogging firm sank after announcing plans to raise $1.5 B via convertible bonds. Amazon fell with the approach of the Alibaba IPO taking a toll. RadioShack remains volatile amid ongoing speculation over its dissolution and rescue.
08:50 EDTThe 11k U.S. initial claims pop to 315k
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained steady below highs
Treasury Action: yields remained steady below highs following the rebound in jobless claims that exceeded expectations, but weren't entirely a surprise given recent softness in jobs stats. The 10-year yield is holding under 2.52% relative to opening stock market weakness compared to 2.54% near the Tuesday close, with room for another stab to 2.50% or below at 2.44% if stocks continue to unwind. The 2s-10s spread is trading slightly narrower just inside +197 bp.
08:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is in the tank again
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 11k to 315k in the week ended September 6
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 11k to 315k in the week ended September 6, after rising 6k to 304k the week prior (revised from 302k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 304k from 303.25k (revised from 302.75k). Continuing claims rose 9k to 2,487k in the week ended August 30 after a 50k decline to 2,478k for the August 23 week (revised from 2,464k). The headline number is in contrast to expectations for a decline, but the Labor Day holiday may have impacted. Indeed, the BLS noted the difficulties in adjusting claims around holidays.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped back
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08:33 EDTFutures weaken following jobless claims data
Stock futures weakened following the release of the weekly jobless claims data. There were 315K initial claims versus the expected 300K, while continuing claims came in at 2.49M versus the expected 2.49M.
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 9/6 Jobless Claims at 315K vs. consensus of 300K
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting small gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting small gains in contrast to weaker Asian debt markets, while Europe's little rally is failing. Japanese accounts were noted buyers of the belly. The 5-year yield has fallen to 1.77%, while the 10-year has edged down to 2.52%. Trading volume was moderate. Equities are mostly lower, with the exception of the Nikkei, even as Scottish independence concerns have faded slightly. In overnight news, the RBNZ held rates steady, as expected, while Australian employment surged. German inflation was confirmed at a subdued 0.8% y/y pace. The U.K. RICS house price index slid to 40%, the lowest in a year. In the U.S. today, there's more supply today with the 30-year reopening on tap. The data calendar is light with just initial jobless claims and the August Treasury budget. The NY Fed will purchase $2.0 B to $2.5 B in intermediate notes.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:26 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
Macau Gaming Corporate Day to be held in Hong Kong on September 11.
07:25 EDTCanaccord to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTStock futures lower ahead of jobless claims data
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07:15 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded mostly firmer
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 11
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05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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04:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 106.80-85
FX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 106.80-85 after making a new six-year peak of 107.03 during Tokyo trade earlier. The gain reflect broad yen weakness, seen after BoJ Kuroda's assurance to PM Abe that the central bank won't hesitate to take further action should the 2% inflation target become difficult to achieve. Kuroda didn't mention the yen today, which was taken as a tacit acceptance of the currency's weakening path. He has said last month that FX moves have been consistent with fundamentals. Recent data showed that Q2 GDP data showing a 7.1% drop, largely due to the three-percentage-point rise in the sales tax to 8%, which was implemented in April. Markets continued to view the BoJ has being headed for further monetary stimulus. USD-JPY support is marked at 106.50 and 105.94-106.00.
02:25 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY clocked a fresh six-year peak
FX Update: USD-JPY clocked a fresh six-year peak 107.03, and EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY were also perky to as the yen underperformed. EUR-USD and Cable, meanwhile, were relatively steady, settling after recent volatility, with the latter consolidating the gains after a poll showed the No vote to Scottish independence back in the lead, matching a poll-of-polls headline that painted the same picture. Cable hovered on either side of 1.6200, up from the 10-month lows seen yesterday at 1.6052. A string of high-profile Scottish businesses ahead threatened to relocate across the border in England in the event of a breakaway. Analysts think concerns about the economic consequences and lure of fresh devolution pledges and constitutional reform analysts swing the significant percentage of undecideds to the No camp come the Sep-18 referendum. AUD-USD rallied today on a sharp jump in Australian employment, to 121k (a record increase) versus the expected 15k, though the magnitude of the gain caused incredulity among some analysts, while others merely pointed out that it was largely caused by a 106.7k surge in part-time workers.
September 10, 2014
16:22 EDTWeek of 9/19 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:22 EDTAugust New Home Sales to be released at 10:00
15:35 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed up another notch at the long-end and remained elevated into the middle leg of supply in the 10-year, while the stock market first churned lower, then rebounded with a UBS upgrade on Twitter providing the catalyst. The bond market remained very wary of any alteration of FOMC policy guidance next week that could be construed as bringing forward a rate hike. Meanwhile, MBA mortgage stats were quite weak and wholesale trade data not particularly compelling.
14:35 EDTTreasury Action: the $13 B bond reopening Thursday completes the auctions
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14:05 EDTNASDAQ comp is lifting stocks from lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $21 B 10-year reopening was ok
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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12:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy put positioning is rumored
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved to session lows of 1.0956
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12:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.433 B in TIPS
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11:08 EDTWeek of 9/19 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some large block trades
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10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $91.75
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 5
Crude oil inventories 972K draw vs. consensus of 1.5M draw. Gasoline inventories 2.38M build vs. consensus of flat. Distillates 4.1M build vs. consensus of 1.0M build.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.35 B to $0.45 B in TIPS
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot assumptions
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10:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off the wholesale data
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in July, with sales up 0.7%
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09:40 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: July wholesale trade data may reveal a 1.0% (median 0.6%) gain for sales following a 0.2% increase in June. Inventories are expected to be up 0.6% following a 0.3% increase in June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio holding steady for a third month at 1.17.
09:38 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open
Stock futures traded near fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a quiet open for the broader market. Much of the morning commentary surrounded yesterday's launches from Apple (AAPL) and how its products will affect suppliers and competitors. The market, which is currently on a three day losing streak, will hope to bounce back from yesterday’s sell-off. In early trading, the Dow is up 6 points, the Nasdaq is up 9 points and the S&P is little changed.
09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC decision is a week away
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some put positioning
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities drifted lower
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08:44 EDTLeerink healthcare services analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 19 cents
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08:30 EDTCanada Capacity Utilization Preview
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07:59 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:58 EDTFDA Cardiovascular & Renal Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:54 EDTMitsubishi UFJ to hold a conference
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07:51 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
London Small/Mid-Cap Conference to be held in London, England on September 10-11.
07:51 EDTFutures quiet as investors prepare for possible Fed language change
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07:50 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Industrials CEOs Unplugged Conference to be held in London, England on September 10-11.
07:40 EDTTopeka to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 7.2%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 7.2% in data released earlier, while the purchase index fell 2.6% and the refinancing index dove 10.7% for the week ended September 5. Mortgage rates merely rose slightly, as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed 2 basis points to a still-low 4.27%. But is was a holiday-shortened week after Labor Day Monday, punctuated by the soft August payrolls report on Friday that may not have fully captured seasonals. If not excused in this fashion, then the weak MBA report underscores the fickle nature of the housing market currently as first time buyers remain hamstrung by building down payments, careers and the like. For more detail on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts.
07:36 EDTJefferies to hold a summit and tour
China TMT Summit & Tour to be held in Beijing, China on September 10-12.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds remain weak
Treasury Market Outlook: global bonds remain weak with European peripheral bonds underperforming. Rising worries over a "yes" vote on Scottish referendum next week, and fears such an outcome would give heart to the Spanish independence movement continue to weigh on bonds. Adding to bearish pressures are concerns over Fed normalization with possible elimination of the "considerable time" phrase from the policy statement at next week's FOMC, and disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. Spain's 10-year yield is up 9 bps to 2.279%. Supply is also bearish for the 10-year Treasury ahead of this afternoon's auction. The wi yield is up about 2 bps to 2.53%. Stocks are little changed. There wasn't much news overnight. German and Italian borrowing costs declined at their respective auctions. French production numbers were stronger than expected, but the government extended its budget target out another 3 years thanks to weak growth and falling revenues. Japan's core machine orders climbed 3.5%. There's isn't a lot on the U.S. calendar. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped 7.2% in the week ended September 5. July wholesale trade is due later this morning. The NY Fed will purchase $0.35 B to $0.45 B in TIPS.
07:34 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:20 EDTCurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust volatility flat as yen falls to fresh six-year
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The USD saw fresh highs versus GBP, JPY and AUD
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 10
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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03:10 EDTFX Update: The yen saw fresh lows
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September 9, 2014
16:35 EDTSeptember Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTSeptember State Street Investor Confidence Index to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTWeek of 9/20 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:35 EDTWeek of 9/20 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: the 10-year note is reopened tomorrow
Treasury Action: the 10-year note is reopened tomorrow ($21 B size), and the auction could suffer the same fate as today's given worries over next week's FOMC decision. The Fed is widely expected to trim another $10 B from QE asset purchases (ahead of an expected October end date) and adjust forward guidance, likely doing away with the "considerable time" phrase as rate lift-off draws ever nearer (though it's still many months out). The wi has cheapened 3 bps today to 2.51%. That would be the cheapest award rate in a couple of months, but that is still rich on an outright basis and may not compensate sufficiently for other risks. However, with a still very wide spread to Europe, overseas demand should remain supportive. Last month's $24 B new issue was awarded at 2.439% and saw a 2.83 cover, better than the 2.71 average, and garnered a strong 47.0% indirect bid (44.0% average).
14:15 EDTU.S. equities got an iWatch pop
U.S. equities got an iWatch pop which finally gave investors something new to cheer about, following the supersized iPhone 6s and iPay system, which lifted NASDAQ comp nearly back into the green. Treasury yields and the dollar were not impressed, however, by the modest swings on stocks.
13:25 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: July wholesale trade data will be released on Wednesday and should reveal a 1.0% (median 0.6%) gain for sales following a 0.2% increase in June. Inventories are expected to be up 0.6% following a 0.3% increase in June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio holding steady for a third month at 1.17.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $27 B 3-year auction results were underwhelming
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: 3-year yields probed higher
Treasury Action: 3-year yields probed higher in the wake of the $27 B auction, which garnered mixed results and saw the current 3-year yield probe over 1.04%, compared to overnight lows of 1.015% and the 1.066% award rate on the new notes. With Treasuries defensive ahead of any language changes in next week's FOMC statement, the Treasury may have a little challenge peddling supply this week.
12:40 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview: the auction should go pretty well
Treasury 3-year auction preview: the auction should go pretty well thanks to the back-up in yield. The wi has cheapened to 1.065%, and a stop there would be the highest since April 2011, and the first 1.0% coupon since May 2011. The note is also somewhat cheap on the curve given the bias toward curve flatteners. There should be good sponsorship from foreign accounts thanks to the yield premium, especially with shorter dated German rates still in negative territory and easy monetary policy from the ECB expected to remain in place. On the other hand, the advent of the FOMC next week, with a good chance that the "considerable time" language is dumped, may leave buyers sidelined. Additionally there could be some worry after the SF Fed's study suggested the Treasury market maybe too complacent on interest rate risks. The note has been special in repo, but recent data suggest the short base has dwindled. And, the general tone in global bonds has turned more bearish. The August sale was awarded at 0.924% and garnered a below average 3.03 cover (3.32 average) and a solid 36.2% indirect bid (33.0% average). Direct bidders took 19.0%, while primary dealers garnered 44.8%.
12:00 EDTTreasury's $35 B 4-week bill auction was very strong
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12:00 EDTU.S. equities rolled over to lows
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11:15 EDTFed Governor Tarullo stuck to regulatory issues in his testimony
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10:55 EDTDoubleline's Gundlach sees USD-JPY at 200
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in the 5-year
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10:35 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook: the global selloff in bonds
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10:20 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slipped 2k to 4,673k in July
U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slipped 2k to 4,673k in July after climbing 98k to 4,675k (revised from 4,671k) in June. This breaks a string of 5 consecutive monthly increases, though it's still one of the highest levels since 2001. Hirings increased 81k to 4,872k following June's 53k rebound to 4,791k (revised from 4,830k). Quitters increased 33k to 2,517k following a 3k June decline to 2,484k (revised from 2,534k). Despite the slippage in some of the stats, the report nevertheless meshes with other data reflecting the improved labor market.
10:10 EDTShort positioning in Treasuries was trimmed
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09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY losses were short lived
FX Action: USD-JPY losses were short lived, as the pairing held support into the 106 level, before bouncing back to 106.30. From here however, new selling interest is reportedly moving in from 106.40, with Japanese interest noted. Near term, analysts suspect analysts may have seen the highs for now, with a move under 106.00 likely to squeeze out dome weaker recently taken long positions. Under 106.00, standing bids are not seen until 105.75.
09:23 EDTHouse Science, Space and Technology Committee to hold a hearing
The Energy and Oversight Subcommittees examines characteristics and behavior of crude oil produced from the Bakken region in North Dakota, Montana and Canada in a joint hearing entitled, "Bakken Petroleum: The Substance of Energy Independence" on September 9 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
09:14 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Health holds a hearing entitled, "21st Century Cures: Examining the Regulation of Laboratory Developed Tests" with FDA Director Shuren on September 9 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
09:10 EDTFed governor Tarullo will testify before the Senate Banking Committee
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08:58 EDTBernstein IT hardware analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more downside positioning
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08:54 EDTBernstein internet analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Internet Analyst Kirjner discusses mobile GMV, promotions, auctions, payments and logistics at Tmall from a seller's view on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 10 at 10 am.
08:30 EDTBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
The Energy Security Initiative hosts "The Future of U.S. Energy Security & Oil Export Policy" in Washington, D.C. on September 9 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
08:30 EDTU.S. equities are shrugging off the bullish signals
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded the 1.10 handle
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08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude recovered some recent losses
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08:12 EDTSenate Banking Committee holds a hearing on Wall Street Reform
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08:10 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store index rose 0.7%
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08:07 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:04 EDTGoldman credit strategy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are sharply weaker globally
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07:45 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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07:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar added to recent gains
FX Action: The dollar added to recent gains overnight, though has pulled back from trend highs versus the euro and yen into the N.Y. open. The U.S. calendar is empty again this morning, so focus will likely remain on risk and interest rate levels. Equity futures imply a marginally higher Wall Street open, while yield spreads have moved further in favor of the dollar. Analysts continue to target EUR-USD at 1.3755, the July 2013 low, though for USD-JPY, into the end of September, yen repatriation from Japanese firms may limit USD-JPY gains going forward.
07:31 EDTFDA Cardiovascular & Renal Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses Forrest Laboratories New Drug Application (NDA) 206302, nebivolol/valsartan fixed-dose combination tablets, for the proposed indication of the treatment of hypertension in a meeting to be held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on September 9 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:24 EDTWisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund volatility flat as Yuan at six-month high
Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund overall option implied volatility of 11 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
07:20 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
Global Oil & Gas Investor Forum to be held in London, England on September 9.
07:18 EDTSeeThruEquity to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTWells Fargo to hold a forum
3rd Annual Net Lease REIT Forum to be held in New York on September 9.
07:09 EDTGlobal Technology Distribution Council to hold a summit
2014 GTDC U.S. Vendor Summit to be held in San Jose, California on September 9-10.
07:06 EDTHMG Strategy to hold a summit
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07:04 EDTBMO Capital to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs
FX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs on the back of favourable yield differentials. The 10-year T-note over Bund spread, for instance, has risen to new major-trend lows above 150 bp. EUR-USD clocked a new 14-month low of 1.2859, subsequently dead-cat bouncing toward 1.2900. USD-JPY rallied above its previous day's high for the eighth consecutive day, making a six-year peak of 106.39. Cable carved out a new 10-month low of 1.6064 in Asia before finding a footing back above 1.6100, finding support from strong U.K. BRC retail sales and industrial production data. The latest poll in Scotland, from TNS, suggests that the Yes and No camps are neck-an-neck. The dollar also made gains against the dollar bloc, with AUD-USD hitting three week lows and USD-CAD trading above 1.1000 for the first time since May. Elsewhere, the PBOC strengthened the yuan fix by 0.3% today, which is most since November 2010.
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 9
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.28%, DAX down 0.14%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $93.15 natural gas up 0.54%, gold at $1257 an ounce, and copper down 0.74%.
05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar extended to fresh highs
FX Action: The dollar extended to fresh highs across-the-board. USD-JPY rallied above its previous day's high for the eighth consecutive day, making a six-year peak of 106.34. EUR-USD clocked a new 14-month low of 1.2866. Cable carved out a new 10-month low of 1.6064, extending yesterday's sharp declines that were seen following a weekend poll that showed the Yes for Scottish independence vote take the lead for the first time. The latest poll, from TNS, suggests that the Yes and No camps are neck-an-neck, however, and, unlike yesterday, sterling was steady versus other currencies aside from the dollar, including against the euro and yen. The dollar also made gains against the dollar bloc, with AUD-USD hitting three week lows and USD-CAD trading above 1.1000 for the first time since May. Favourable yield differentials continue to underpin the greenback against most currencies. The 10-year Bund versus T-note spread, for instance, has slipped to new major-trend lows under -150 bp. Elsewhere, the PBOC strengthened the yuan fix by 0.3% today, which is most since November 2010.
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