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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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November 19, 2014
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:43 EDTFed members initially had different views on 'considerable time' phrase
All but one member of the Federal Open Market Committee ended up supporting the committee's statement on the outlook for interest rates following its last meeting, although some expressed concerns initially, the FOMC's minutes released today stated. Committee members initially disagreed on whether to reiterate that it would probably be appropriate to maintain the current 0%-0.25% target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of the asset purchase program in October, especially if inflation continues to run below the committee's 2% longer run goal. Some participants favored eliminating the statement, saying that it could be misconstrued to suggest that the FOMC's actions would not be based on incoming data. Other participants felt that the "considerable time" phrase was useful in conveying the committee's outlook, while a couple felt that removing the phrase could signal a significant change in the Fed's policy, resulting in a tightening of financial conditions. A couple of others felt that the current language could suggest an earlier increase in rates was likely to be appropriate. In the end, however, all but one member supported maintaining the considerable time phrase. Meanwhile, "a number" of members said that it could be helpful for the committee to issue further clarification of the bank's approach to interest rates soon. Members generally agreed that the economy had made enough progress to justify concluding the Fed's asset purchase program at the end of October. On the economy, participants felt that the unemployment rate would continue to decline over the medium term, and anticipated that inflation would be held down by energy price declines in the near-term. However, members felt that inflation would increase towards the committee's 2% goal in coming years, although a few said that it might run below the Fed's objective for quite some time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. A number of participants said that economic growth might be slower than expected over the medium term if overseas economies or the financial situation deteriorates significantly.
14:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: there wasn't much to be gleaned from the FOMC minutes
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14:35 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell broadly
FX Action: The dollar fell broadly after the release of the FOMC minutes, though quickly snapped back to pre-minutes levels. EUR-USD spiked up to stop at 1.2600, before falling back under 1.2560, as USD-JPY dell to 117.50 from 117.70, before heading back to 117.75. With not much news in the release, the knee-jerk dollar reaction petered out in a hurry, and on net, the greenback is just a touch lower than it was.
14:20 EDTWeek of 11/28 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC minutes: the tone was mixed and there isn't much guidance
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed from highs
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13:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's research director Altig says July is the time to start thinking
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13:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar has steadied
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13:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put buying picked up
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12:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: ERBD's $1 B 5-year global
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11:45 EDTFOMC Minutes preview:
FOMC Minutes preview: the minutes from the October 28, 29 policy meeting will reveal the mixed views of the Committee, and hence could suggest a less hawkish bent than the policy statement. That was the case in the September minutes when the mentioned the weaker conditions in Europe and the stronger dollar militated against the hawkish tone in the statement. Remember the FOMC ended QE last month, as widely expected, and also retained the "considerable time" language. It also upgraded its outlook on the labor market and inflation, which may have been done more to appease the two hawkish dissenters (who indeed moved to the sidelines). The minutes are likely to show the frustration in boosting inflation to the 2% target level, and as Kocherlakota has warned, some fears over lost credibility. Interestingly, the Fed discounted the downdraft in energy and commodity prices in the policy statement while appealing to stable inflation expectations, making the distinction between "market-based" prices measures and expectations data. There shouldn't be qualms about the improved labor market outlook. The minutes should again touch on the slower growth in Europe and the stronger dollar, as was a key in the September minutes, since those conditions haven't changed over the past six weeks. The markets will continue look to the minutes for hints on the timing of the first rate hike, as well as when the "considerable time" phrase could be removed -- maybe December?
11:10 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97
Oil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97 lows from $94.50 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 1.0 M bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 M bbls actually rose 1.0 M bbls, while distillate stocks were down 2.1 M bbls, versus expectations for a 1.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 91.2% from 90.1%. Support remained intact under $94, with prices subsequently rebounding to pre-data level.
11:10 EDTRumors of a "NY think tank" report on Japan
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 14
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to climb
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10:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: trade is "pretty quiet"
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: weakness in European bonds is weighing on Treasuries
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some larger block trades
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