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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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March 2, 2015
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed, having pared overnight losses with the 10-year yield dropping back under 2.0%. Global sovereign yields are mostly lower, paced by Gilts which shrugged off firmer than expected manufacturing PMI and a variety of other reports on production and inflation. Eurozone spreads are narrower too as the markets await the start of the ECB's QE buying, reported to begin next week. China cut rates 25 bps, as largely expected, which gave Asian stocks a lift, though Eurozone bourses have lost their gains. There is a lot of U.S. data this week too, culminating with Friday's February nonfarm payroll release. As for today, there is data on January personal income and PCE, the February ISM manufacturing index, the February Markit PMI, and January construction spending. Treasury supply is light after the $90 B in coupon offerings last week. But a mammoth $22 B corporate multi-trancher could be in the works with Actavis reportedly prepping a $22 B bond sale.
07:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month WTI crude is trading at $48.80/bbl
Energy Action: Front month WTI crude is trading at $48.80/bbl, after ranging between $48.44 and $49.46 overnight. The next support level comes in at last Friday's low of $47.79, with resistance at $50.00. Sources say the blowout seen last week in spreads between the front (April) contract and the May contract portend further near term weakness, as it becomes more expensive to roll a position forward. May crude is now trading over $2.30/bbl higher than April crude. April Gasoline trades under $1.95/gallon, down from $1.9750 highs, staying firm, as labor actions, and unexpected refinery outages support. Average U.S. retail gasoline has shot up to nearly $2.43/gallon, up 13 cents over the past week, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are steady near the bottom of their two-week range, currently at $2.70/M BTU.
07:34 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:34 EDTHealthcare Education Associates to hold a summit
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07:31 EDTCLSA to hold a tour
Asia Tech Tour travels throughout Korea, Taiwan and China on March 2-6.
07:30 EDTFutures quiet in early trading
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07:29 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:36 EDTChina's central bank lowers interest rates, NY Times says
China's central bank on Saturday announced that it had lowered its one year bank lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%, according to The New York Times. The central bank also lowered its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the newspaper stated. Reference Link
06:33 EDTChina PMI reaches seven month high, Reuters reports
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06:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 2
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05:54 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
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03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY steady in European AM trade
FX Action: USD-JPY steady in European AM trade after breaking above recent highs at 119.79-84 in Tokyo on route to an 18-day peak at 119.95. Higher stock markets in Asia, boosted by the combo of China's rate cut and above-forecast PMI data out of China and Japan, aided the yen lower, which followed its usual inverse correlative with risk appetite. The bigger picture view shows that USD-JPY remains entrenched in a broadly, if somewhat choppy, sideways price action that's been persisting since the major-cycle peak was made at 121.85 on Dec-7. More of the same looks likely for now, though analysts remain bullish in the longer-term. Despite there being a muddy picture about whether the BoJ is or isn't headed for further easing measures later this year, the central bank is on a sufficiently contrasting paths that favour the dollar. Near-term resistance is pegged at 120.00 and 120.47-50 (which encompasses mid-February highs), and support at 119.60.
03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD declined below Friday's low
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March 1, 2015
15:15 EDTChina lowers benchmark rates for second time in four months, WSJ says
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February 27, 2015
20:13 EDTConsumer Credit to be reported at 15:00
January Consumer Credit will be reported at 15:00 . Current consensus is $15.0B for the month
20:13 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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20:13 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
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20:13 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level to be reported at 08:30
January International Trade Balance Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is $[41.8]B
20:13 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
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20:13 EDTProductivity and Costs Unit labor costs to be reported at 08:30
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20:13 EDTProductivity and Costs Nonfarm productivity to be reported at 08:30
Productivity and Costs Nonfarm productivity will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [2.3]% for the quarter
20:13 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite to be reported at 10:00
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20:13 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
February ADP Employment Report employment will be reported at 08:15 . Current consensus is 220,000
20:13 EDTPMI Services Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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20:13 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
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20:13 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:13 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
February PMI Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 54.0
20:13 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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20:13 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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15:40 EDTFed VC Fischer said there is high probability rate will rise this year
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:22 EDTAverages drift in negative territory
Each of the major equity indices remains in negative territory, with the Nasdaq the laggard. The averages have moved in a narrow range for the last couple of trading sessions despite a host of economic data points that were released during that time. Advancing stocks are narrowly ahead of decliners, crude oil prices are up almost 2% and gold prices are slightly higher. The Dow is down 39 points, the Nasdaq is down 18 points, S&P is down 2 points.
13:50 EDTFed VC Fischer: Fed and the markets are expecting a rate hike this year
Fed VC Fischer: Fed and the markets are expecting a rate hike this year, in his comments at the monetary policy forum in NY. That's not really a surprising comment given other Fedspeak, the dot-plot, etc, and he didn't really indicate a particular time frame. He added that there is still an extraordinary amount of stimulus that the Fed is providing. The big balance sheet is keeping downward pressure on rates, and could pose financial stability risks, but he repeated that there are no plans to start selling MBS. He didn't let any cats out of the bag. The markets will turn their attention to next Friday's jobs report, and what that might support expectations that the FOMC will eliminate "patient" in the March 17, 18 policy statement.
12:55 EDTFedspeak from Fed Chairwoman Yellen next week:
Fedspeak from Fed Chairwoman Yellen next week: she will receive a medal from the Citizens Budget Commission on Tuesday for High Civic Service and will deliver a speech at the dinner honoring her well after the close from 20 ET. Otherwise a gaggle of speakers stack up on Wednesday, starting with Chicago dove Evans on current economic conditions and monetary policy from 9 ET. He will be followed by KC Fed hawk George on the U.S. economy from 13 ET and Dallas Fed uber-hawk Fisher reprising his farewell speech "10-years at the Fed" from 19 ET. On Friday SF Fed Williams graciously accepted an invite from the CFA Society of Hawaii to speak late from 23:15 ET.
12:35 EDTGreece facing liquidity crunch, Reuters says
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11:20 EDTCleveland Fed moderate hawk Mester warned that inert policy
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:40 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley cautioned on raising rates too soon
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10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment drop to a upwardly-revised 95.4
The Michigan sentiment drop to a upwardly-revised 95.4 (was 93.6) in February capped the prior six-month climb to a 98.1 cycle-high that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004, after a lower 93.6 reading in December. The upward revision, despite a gasoline price bounce that analysts thought might depress the final Michigan figures, reversed the pattern of downward bumps in the prior three months, and hence reestablished the upward revision tendency of the prior two years. Analysts have an average boost of 0.9 in 2015, versus average boosts of 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. Analysts saw February declines in nearly all of the major confidence gauges. The consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in February from a 103.8 cycle-high in January, but a lower 93.1 in December. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to 42.7 in the fourth week of February from a 45.5 cycle-high average in January. The daily Rasmussen index has slipped to a 109 average in February from a 113.7 cycle-high average in January. The IBD/TIPP index fell to 47.5 from 51.5, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012, though the RBC-IPSOS index rose to a cycle-high 54.7 in February from a 53.3 prior cycle-high in both December and January.
10:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: more strangle (vol) selling
Treasury Option Action: more strangle (vol) selling was reported earlier, with the sale of 8k in May 123/134 strangles (3k and 5k legs) on 10-year futures. March 10s are fractionally firmer near 128-085, compared to their 128-145 to 128-005 range.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar regained some poise
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10:15 EDTU.S. pending home sales bounced 1.7% to 104.2 in January
U.S. pending home sales bounced 1.7% to 104.2 in January after falling 1.5% in December to 102.5 (revised up from 100.7). Regionally, sales were higher in 3 of the 4 areas surveyed, paced by the South. Compared to last January, pending home sales are up 6.5% y/y, though not quite the 7.7% y/y clip from December.
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 95.4 in the final February print
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 95.4 in the final February print versus 98.1 in January, but is a little better compared to the 93.6 preliminary February print. The current conditions index dropped to 106.9 from last month's 109.3 (and the 103.1 February preliminary). The expectations component fell to 88.0 from January's 91.0 (87.5 preliminary). The 12-month inflation index climbed to 2.8% from 2.5% in January (but was in line with the 2.8% preliminary). The 5- to 10-year index dipped to 2.7% from January's 2.8% (but was also the same as the 2.7% preliminary).
10:00 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to 45.8 in February
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10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar sagged
FX Action: The dollar sagged after the much weaker Chicago PMI print, lifting EUR-USD from new trend lows, rallying from 1.1176 to over 1.1195. USD-JPY came off its intra day peak of 119.47, slipping into 119.25. Stocks turned modest losses into moderate losses, as yields fell back some.
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields skidded lower
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to x in February
U.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to x in February after edging up 0.6 points to 59.4 in January. The index was last under 50 in April 2013, but this is the lowest since July 2009. The index hit a relative high at 65.1 in October 2013. The internals were mixed, but several of the key components declined, including employment, new orders, and production. Prices paid were higher on the month. The much worse than expected data should knock Treasury yields lower.
09:50 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
U.S. NAR pending home sales preview: the PHSI is forecast to rise to 101.5 in January from 100.7 in December. The index stalled in December, falling 3.7%, despite year-low mortgage rates as low inventories contributed to the slowdown. For more, see the NAR PHSI website.
09:45 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI preview:
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09:45 EDTU. Michigan consumer sentiment preview:
U. Michigan consumer sentiment preview: Michigan Sentiment is expected to be revised up to 94.0 in the second (final) release for February from the 93.6 preliminary reading and still down from 98.1 in January. This compares to a pre-December high of 85.1 in June and a low of 55.7 in August '11. Forecast risk is upward, however, given the positive impact of falling gasoline prices. preview for more.
09:40 EDTMarket opens quietly on final trading day of month
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09:37 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 14:25
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09:37 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 23:15
09:37 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Speech to be released at 13:00
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09:37 EDT Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George Speech to be released at 13:00
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09:37 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 20:15
09:35 EDTFedspeak from the U.S. Montary Policy Forum
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09:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some more bearish positioning
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09:23 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:19 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTThe downward U.S. Q4 GDP growth revision to 2.2%
The downward U.S. Q4 GDP growth revision to 2.2% from 2.6% retained the 2-handle thanks to a smaller than expected downward net export bump of just $4.9 B, alongside boosts in the service consumption and intellectual property components that can't be guessed in advance. Real goods consumption posted a surprising small downward bump alongside higher price figures. Analysts saw the expected big downward revision of $24.7 B for inventories, and smaller expected boosts for construction and equipment spending. Our Q1 GDP estimate will remain at 2.5% until analysts can review Monday's income report, with fairly balanced risks following today's data. The average real GDP growth clip for the expansion slipped to 2.3% (was 2.4%) from 2.4% in Q3, 2.2% in Q2, and 2.1% in Q1, but the same 2.3% back in Q3 and Q4 of 2013 to leave little underlying acceleration as analysts enter 2015 beyond the lift to "real" consumption from falling gasoline prices that will help Q1, but with headwinds from mining sector weakness and a weather hit that might exacerbate a likely inventory growth drop-back.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are still marginally lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields ticked back up
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied after the revised GDP data
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the revised GDP data, which was a touch better than forecasts. EUR-USD edged under 1.1325 from 1.1340, as USD-JPY popped to near 119.45 from 119.25. Equity futures pared some of their modest losses, though remain slightly under water into the open, while yields firmed up a bit.
08:45 EDTU.S. GDP growth slowed to a 2.2% pace in Q4
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08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made intra day lows of 1.2450
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08:32 EDTFutures remain quiet following release of economic data
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08:15 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $49.00
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $49.00 early in the session, after ranging between $48.64 and $49.49 overnight. China National Petroleum Corp increased its estimate for demand growth to 3% overnight, which was supportive, though reduced U.S. refinery usage should keep U.S. crude inventories bloated for the near term. RBOB gasoline is near three-week highs, trading over $1.93/gallon, lifting average U.S. retail prices another 3 cents, to $2.37/gallon. Natural gas futures remain heavy at $2.73/M BTU, after sliding 4% Thursday following the EIA inventory report which revealed a smaller draw in supplies than expected.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly lower
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07:40 EDTFDA General & Plastic Surgery Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Panel discusses, makes recommendations and votes on information regarding Bioform's premarket approval application (PMA) panel-track supplement to expand the indication for use for the Radiesse Injectable Implant (Radiesse) device is being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on February 27 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTEuropean Central Bank President to speak at forum
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio and Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso participate on a panel at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum being held in New York on February 27.
07:28 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President to speak at forum
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester speaks on the condition of the economy at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum being held in New York on February 27.
07:06 EDTFutures quiet as low volatility continues
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07:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 27
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07:00 EDTFX Update EUR-USD consolidated its toehold
FX Update EUR-USD consolidated its toehold after yesterday's sharp dive to a 1.1183 low, making a rebound high so far of 1.1235. Above-forecast German state inflation data helped the euro's cause, along with a speculative market running an extreme net short exposure. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has been trading a narrow range in the low 119s, unperturbed by a slew of month-end data releases out of Japan. Sterling gave back some recent gains with Cable pushing below 1.5400 after opening in London at 1.5427-29, and EUR-GBP lifting to the upper 0.72s after clocking a new seven-year low for the sixth consecutive day, at 0.7257. UK data provided the market with a cue, including a sub-forecast Gfk consumer confidence and an unexpected 1.4% drop in q/q in Q4 business investment numbers. AUD-USD managed to recover the 0.7800 handle after hitting a three-day low at 0.7777 during Sydney trade. Selling had been seen amid RBA rate cut speculation. The latest Bloomberg poll found 16 of 27 analysts expecting a cut at next Tuesday's meeting.
06:33 EDTGerman parliament approves Greek bailout extension, NY Times reports
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05:50 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
02:50 EDTWeek of 3/2 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:50 EDTWeek of 3/11 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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01:55 EDTFX Update EUR-USD found a toehold
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February 26, 2015
21:00 EDTJapan industrial output rose 4.0% in January
Japan industrial output rose 4.0% in January, above 2.7% median forecasts, while manufacturers forecast February output at +0.2% (vs -1.8% previously) and -3.2% in March. Retail sales sank 2.0% y/y in January below -1.3% median forecast. Core CPI rose 2.2% in January y/y, below 2.3% median estimates. The SA jobless rate rose to 3.6% in January from 3.4% previously, while job availability ratio steadied at 1.14 in December. Household spending sank 0.3% in January vs +0.4% forecast, falling 5.1% y/y. Overall, this is still reflecting some mixed messages on Japan's progress with QQE. That said, the Nikkei has opened positively and USD-JPY has steadied over 119.20 after pulling back from 119.42 highs.
16:50 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:50 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:50 EDTWeek of 3/6 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:50 EDTWeek of 3/8 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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16:50 EDTWeek of 3/7 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
16:50 EDTImport Prices data reported.
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16:50 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester: she is in favor of making sure June is a viable option
Cleveland Fed's Mester: she is in favor of making sure June is a viable option in terms of rate liftoff, in a CNBC interview. That's not a new position from her as she's a moderate hawk who spent a lot of time at the Philly Fed before moving to Cleveland. She echoed Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins sentiments that taking patient out of the statement wouldn't necessarily mean there will be a rate hike in June. She could not really say how she would vote come June (hypothetically, as she is not a voter) since the Fed is data dependent and she'll need to see the panoply of data before voting. She expect a 3% GDP growth rate for 2015, and expects inflation to be near the 2% target by the end of next year. She added that "auditing the Fed is mis-named and misguided" in a CNBC interview. She corrected and noted that the Fed is audited. She doesn't think the Fed has become political, and assured policymakers are going to focus on policy and the dual mandate. But she said politics can be a distraction.
14:19 EDTAverages remain mixed, locked in narrow range
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13:55 EDTFed hawk Fisher said the economy is seeing "stout" growth but no inflation
Fed hawk Fisher said the economy is seeing "stout" growth but no inflation, in his comments from London. Never short on analogies, he added the U.S. economy is in the 4th act of a Shakespearean play, but he is not sure whether it is as comedy or a tragedy. Fisher, a long time hawk, will retire following the upcoming March 17, 18 FOMC meeting.
13:55 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 119.49
FX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 119.49, following the greenback broadly higher. Traders reported some short covering ahead of Friday's busy Japan economic calendar, which took some pressure off the pairing, while the uptick in Treasury yields was helpful as well, though from 19.50 up to 120.00, standing offers are reportedly moving in. Tuesday's 119.83 peak will be the first test, with a break there opening up the February 12 peak of 120.37.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields bounced through highs
Treasury Action: yields bounced through highs following the mediocre takedown on the 7-year auction, which tailed out a tad and had mixed underpinnings. That hijacked a potential relief rally with the series out of the way for the week, driving the current 7-year yield out over 1.83% compared to morning lows of 1.747% and the 1.834% award rate on the new notes. The benchmark 10-year yield cleared 2.0%, with the cash bond testing 2.60% as well.
13:00 EDTSt. Louis moderate hawk Fed's Bullard is concerned that low-yield
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12:45 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook:
Treasury 7-year auction outlook: the $29 B 7-year sale completes this week's batch of offerings which have seen decent to good demand, especially from indirect bidders. Today's sale should be similarly well bid from said account, especially with the German 7-year having turned sub-zero. Also there could be some front running of month-end trades since there is a big extension in February (a refunding month). Additionally, the wi 7-year has cheapened 3 bps to 1.815% -- however, a stop there would be the second richest levels in years and that could leave some potential buyers sidelined. The auction could be on the sloppy side however, thanks to some big price swings since the open. Additionally, the 7-year has tailed in the last five auctions. The January auction was awarded at 1.59% and garnered a 2.50 cover (2.54 average) and a 56.1% indirect bid (47.8% average).
12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update:
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12:00 EDTSF Fed dove Williams sees full employment reached this year
SF Fed dove Williams sees full employment reached this year in impromptu remarks earlier with Fox, saying as well that its important to to look at underlying inflation trends, with core inflation relatively stable. He sees the stronger labor market in turn leading to wage growth and 2% inflation by the end of next year. Williams thinks that some accommation should be removed before analysts get to full employment and 2% inflation, accordingly seeing a first hike some time this summer or fall. He also believes the Fed needs to get away from explicit forward guidance on the rate path. This is relatively hawkish for this voter, but roughly in line with the bulk of recent Fedspeak on the cycle.
11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
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11:10 EDTEnergy Action: Natural gas futures took a nose dive
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11:07 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796GC7
11:07 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:07 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796FZ7
11:07 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS and breakevens are rallying again today
Treasury Action: TIPS and breakevens are rallying again today, extending recent gains, with shorter maturities outperforming. The 5-year breakeven is up 10 bps since Tuesday to 156 bps. The long end is lagging a bit but is picking up steam given some front running of the big 0.15 year month-end extension tomorrow given a possible squeeze. Traders are overlooking the largest decline in headline CPI since 2008, and instead are focusing on the 0.2% increase in the core and the steady 1.6% y/y figure. Additionally helping underpin the move have been the rally in copper and signs that gas prices have bottomed. Fed officials have also maintained their mantra that the drop in consumer prices is transitory. Indeed, the hawkish Bullard said earlier today that the rise in core CPI bolsters confidence that inflation will be rising.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending February 20
Gas inventories 219 Bcf draw vs. consensus of 238 Bcf draw.
10:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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10:05 EDTFed policy outlook:
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended their bounce
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09:50 EDTThe 0.7% January U.S. CPI headline drop
The 0.7% January U.S. CPI headline drop was larger than expected thanks to a particularly big 9.7% energy price drop with a flat food price figure, though analysts saw a firm 0.2% (0.178%) core price rise that was lifted by a 0.3% apparel price rise after big Q4 declines. Analysts expect a 0.1% CPI drop in February thanks to a further net oil price decline before a likely March bounce. Analysts now expect a 0.6% January PCE chain price drop with a 0.1% core price rise. Analysts still expect a flat January nominal PCE figure that is restrained by the big 0.8% January retail sales plunge with a 0.9% ex-auto decline, though analysts expect a big January boost from utility consumption that should fuel a 0.6% rise in the "real" January PCE figure. Our 2.5% Q1 GDP growth forecast assumes 1.1% nominal consumption growth with a 4.7% (was 4.3%) real rise and a 3.1% chain price plunge. Today's CPI decline nearly matched last week's 0.8% January PPI drop, alongside an enormous 2.1% January drop for PPI on the old SOP basis. The January trade price report revealed a 2.0% export price plunge that accompanied an oil-led 2.8% import price decline.
09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:43 EDTMarket has another quiet open
Stock futures drifted lower during the pre-market trading session, leading to a flat open for the broader market. The host of economic reports released prior to the open were generally in-line with expectations with the exception of the initial jobless claims report, which showed higher than expected first-time claims last week. The market moved in a narrow range yesterday and may show the same lack of volatility today. The averages are mixed in early trading, with the Dow down 16 points, the Nasdaq up 8 points and the S&P down 1 point.
09:35 EDTThe U.S. durables report
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities reversed into the red
U.S. equities reversed into the red in the wake of the trifecta of data that included an uptick in core CPI, headline bounce in durables (weak ex-transport) and rebound in jobless claims; beneath the surface not that strong. The Dow is 12-points in the red, S&P sank 1-point and NASDAQ is up 5-points, below previous shallow gains. Europe is still slightly firmer, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.3% after gains of 1.08% on Japan's Nikkei and a 2.1% rise on the Shanghai Comp amid stimulus hopes. Aside from the mixed data, Salesforce.com jumped nearly 11% after a 26% gain in revenues, along with raised earnings and guidance, while Transocean rose 4.4% after firm results. Morgan Stanley sank 0.5% after a $2.6 B settlement for claims on mortgage bond sales.
09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.8% to 218.6 in December
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09:00 EDTThe 31k U.S. initial claims bounce to 313k
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08:55 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.7% in January with the core rate rising 0.2%
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved up
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08:50 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 2.8% in January
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08:45 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 31k to 313k in the week ended February 21
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up from lows
Treasury Action: yields popped up from lows on the headline data, though the big durables gain was mostly Boeing, the 0.2% rise in core CPI was hardly inflamatory and jobless claims rebounded. That should cap the knee-jerk yield rise to 1.96% on the T-note, which has already pulled back to 1.94% compared to lows near 1.93% earlier. The 2s-10s spread has tightened to +133 bp overnight, but slightly outside earlier narrows.
08:42 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 2/21 Jobless Claims at 313K vs. consensus of 290K
08:38 EDTFutures little changed after economic reports
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08:25 EDTFedspeak from moderate Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed
Fedspeak from moderate Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed on monetary policy and the economic outlook has been cancelled before the 2015 Banking Outlook Conference there. But Dallas Fed hawk Fisher will be again tapping his recent "Reflections on 10-years at the Fed: Through the Financial Crisis" speech in London at Imperial College of London from 13:15 ET.
08:15 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI to slow to a 0.8% y/y pace in January from the 1.5% pace in December. CPI is seen falling 0.3% m/m in January after the 0.7% plunge in December. Another hefty drop in gasoline prices should drive month comparable CPI lower. But the impact of gasoline prices on total CPI should be reduced due to changes made in the CPI weights. The BoC's core CPI index is seen rising 0.1% in January, similar to the action seen in past months of January. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.1% y/y rate, down from the 2.2% clip in December and in-line with the 2.1% pace in November.
08:15 EDTU.S. durable goods orders preview:
U.S. durable goods orders preview: durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.5% in January (median 1.6%), or 0.1% ex-transportation, with shipments up 0.5%. Inventories are expected to grow by 0.3% in January, which would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.66 last month. Forecast risk is downward, as there was a huge drop in Boeing orders in January. preview for more.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode
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08:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched intra day highs of 1.2480
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode
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07:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading under $50.40
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading under $50.40 into the N.Y. open, after touching $51.24 highs after the close on Wednesday. Comments from Saudi Arabia's oil minister, who said the demand picture appears to be firming up, was behind the rally. On the other side of the coin, U.S. inventories remain at record highs, and estimates of excess supply of as much as 1.5 M bpd will likely prevent crude prices from moving much higher for now. April RBOB gasoline futures remain firm over $1.92/gallon, after surging more than 9 cents on Wednesday. A larger than expected EIA inventory draw, along with ongoing refinery labor and outage issues have supported this week. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are up another 2 cents/gallon to $2.34, and up 7 cents over the past week, according to AAA. Natural gas prices have eased back into the $2.81 level, as moderating U.S. temperatures reduce demand.
07:45 EDTSt. Louis Fed moderate hawk Bullard wants to remove "patient"
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07:36 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President speaks at conference
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07:35 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold a luncheon discussion
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to hold a meeting
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07:28 EDTFDA & Japan Ministry of Education co-host a meeting
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07:23 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
Webinar entitled, "Streamlining Risk Management Across the Front & Middle Office" explores how portfolio and risk managers can interact and leverage advanced portfolio analytics to protect against market uncertainty will be held on February 26 at 11 am. Webcast Link
07:16 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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06:56 EDTFutures quiet ahead of economic reports
Stock futures are drifting higher following yesterday’s listless session, which was marked by low volatility and an absence of any market moving news. Today investors will be examining weekly jobless claims data, a consumer prices report, durable goods orders, a housing price index and natural gas storage change report for clues about the economy.
06:07 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 26
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05:58 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
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February 25, 2015
17:08 EDTWeek of 3/6 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:08 EDT Quarterly Services Survey to be released at 10:00
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:35 EDTAverages drift in record territory
Each of the major stock averages is in positive territory in afternoon trading, which means a new record for the Dow and S&P and another step closer to 5,000 for the Nasdaq. The averages have drifted for most of the session, with most of the time being spent near the flat line, though all turned positive near noon. Despite the slight gains in the market the number of advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 5:4. Near 2:30 pm EST, the Dow is up 10 points, the Nasdaq is up 6 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year auction was well subscribed
Treasury's $35 B 5-year auction was well subscribed, as expected, again supported by indirect bidders. They took 60.1%, the 4th highest on record. The note stopped right on the dime at 1.480%, where it traded at the bid deadline. There were almost $88.9 B in bids for a 2.54 cover, better than the 2.49 from January, but a little off the 2.71 average. But, direct bidders took only 5.2%, while primary dealers accepted 32.4%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
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12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
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12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been dead in the water
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12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more straddle selling
Euro$ interest rate options update: more straddle selling has crept into the mix, according to sources, with a sale of 20k in June 96 straddles in the pits following some 25k in a block sale as well (selling volatility). The June 2015 contract is a half-tick lower at 99.625, while the deferreds extended their slide by up to 3-ticks out the back.
12:10 EDTYellen Q&A: expecting to see upward pressure on wages
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11:55 EDTTreasury's 2-year FRN reopening was solid
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11:35 EDTYellen Q&A: testimony got a little testy
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11:12 EDTWeek of 3/6 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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10:59 EDTMarch PMI Services Index to be released at 09:45
10:55 EDTYellen Q&A: she wants to improve living wills
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10:50 EDTYellen Q&A: not interested in only rules-based policy
Yellen Q&A: not interested in only rules-based policy, she said this would overly tie the Fed's hand and not be practical. She also noted that any change in forward guidance would mean the Fed wishes to consider whether or not to raise the funds rate. Yellen also confirmed that the Fed is not interested in modifying Dodd-Frank legislation.
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell
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10:35 EDTU.S. new home sales beat estimates
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of February 20
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10:25 EDTFed Chair Yellen is back on the Hill, reprising her prepared testimony
Fed Chair Yellen is back on the Hill, reprising her prepared testimony from yesterday. So analysts'll wait for the questioning to begin to hear if there is anything new. Analysts don't expect she will change her less than hawkish tone, however. She was straightforward yesterday, stating that while the labor market has improved, it's not there yet in terms of being back to normal.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to edge back up
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales slipped 0.2% to 481k in January
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a larger bullish position
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09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: January new home sales data should reveal a -3.3% headline decrease to a 465k (median 470k) pace from 481k in December and 431k in November. Other housing measures also fell for the month with starts down -2.0% to 1,065k from 1,087k and existing home sales down -4.9% to 4.820 M from 5.070 M in December.
09:42 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open
Stock futures showed little movement during the pre-market trading session and closed with a slight negative bias. As a result the market had a relatively quiet, though slightly lower, open. Investors will once again listen to Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she speaks before the Financial Services Committee beginning at 10:00 am EST. Investors will also be watching the new home sales report and weekly Department of Energy inventory reports, which are due out at 10 and 10:30 am, respectively. In early trading, the Dow is down 10 points, the Nasdaq is down 8 points and the S&P is down 3 points.
09:40 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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09:34 EDTHouse Homeland Security Committee
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09:30 EDTGoodbye patient, hello "reasonably confident"
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09:14 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Preserving the Multistakeholder Model of Internet Governance" with CEO Chehade of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) on February 25 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are marginally lower
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08:05 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a discussion
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07:44 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a discussion
Colonel Mateo Martemucci, U.S. Air Force, discusses the threat landscape in cyberspace, distinguishing between cyber attacks, cyber exploits, and cyber espionage in a discussion being held in Cleveland, Ohio on February 25 at 12 pm.
07:41 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi testifies
ECB President Draghi Testifies Before European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium on February 25 at 11:30 am.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.5%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.5% in data released earlier, while the purchase index rose 4.6% and the refinancing index sank 7.5% for the week ended February 20. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 6 basis points to 3.99% as an interim Greek debt debt reduced some safety premium for bonds, though data continues to come in mixed. Indeed, Yellen's testimony yesterday highlighted sluggishness in housing, despite low mortgage rates, as one factor justifying her affinity for policy patience for now. Analysts'll get another round of new home sales data today, which could underscore that point, after recent updates on existing home sales and housing starts have proved disappointing.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to higher
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07:32 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:26 EDTFutures slightly lower in early trading
U..S. equity futures are lower this morning in early trading. Yesterday Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated, during testimony before a Senate committee, that the Fed would take a patient approach to raising interest rates. Today investors will be examining a new home sales report and the weekly Department of Energy Inventory report.
07:21 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:20 EDTCROI Foundation to hold a conference
Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections: CROI 2015 is being held in Seattle, Washington on February 23-26.
07:19 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:41 EDTChina flash PMI hit four month high, Reuters reports
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 25
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.10%, DAX up 0.05%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.15, natural gas up 0.38%, gold at $1207 an ounce, copper down 0.57%.
05:47 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
02:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has trade firmer
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February 24, 2015
17:24 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTYellen testimony pushes market higher
The Dow and S&P 500 remain higher in afternoon trading and the Nasdaq is little changed. The Nasdaq's breather, however, come after the index has put together a string of nine consecutive higher closes for the first time since July 2009. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by about 5:4 and oil is fractionally higher. The Dow is up 86 points, the S&P is up 4 points and the Nasdaq is flat.
14:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took a dive following comments from the BoC's Poloz
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14:10 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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14:01 EDTWeek of 3/7 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:50 EDTYellen Pitches Patience to Senate:
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: short yields remained at lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $26 B 2-year sale was well received
Treasury's $26 B 2-year sale was well received. Thanks Janet. The note priced well, stopping just through at 0.603% (the richest of the session) versus 0.605% at the bid deadline. The yield richened measurable from the 0.66% level at the time of Yellen's testimony (and it compares to last month's 0.540%). Bids totaled $89.7 B for a 3.45 cover, weaker than January's 3.74, but better than both December's 3.21 ($27 B auctioned) and the 3.38 average. Indirect bidders accepted 48.2% versus 48.6% previously and a 32.4% average. Direct bidders were awarded 9.0% against last month's 8.8%. Primary dealers took 38.5% versus 42.6%.
12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is down flirting with the 119.00 level
FX Action: USD-JPY is down flirting with the 119.00 level, touching 118.97 before reclaiming the figure again. Aside from the post-Yellen blip to 119.84, and subsequent sell-off, trade has been quiet, as the market takes nothing terribly new away from the Fed Chief's commentary. As a result, USD-JPY looks set to maintain recent trading ranges, inside of 118.00-120.00.
12:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Fed remains "patient" is the main takeaway
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12:05 EDTWhat keeps Yellen up at night?:
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill sale was routine
Treasury's $40 B 4-week bill sale was routine but demand was not as strong as recent offerings. The bill stopped right on the screws at 0.015 %, and is fractionally cheaper than last week's 0.010% award rate. There were $146.1 B in bids for a 3.68 cover, slightly less than last week's 3.75 and the 3.95 for the week before that. Indirect bidders took 35.2%, up from the prior 26.7%. That's the highest since December 30.
11:50 EDTYellen on international factors:
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11:35 EDTYellen said raising rates too soon could risk undermining the recovery
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11:20 EDTYellen on "Audit the Fed":
Yellen on "Audit the Fed": it is critical that the Fed can deliberate on the best way it can meet goals, while GAO reviews in real time might have inhibited Fed actions in the past to tackle inflation. Research has demonstrated that independent central banks perform better and economies are more stable. Otherwise, this would bring short-term political pressure on the Fed, which is already extensively audited. Bottom line - she strongly opposes.
11:05 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury yields have retrenched
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10:55 EDTYellen noted tepid wage growth
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10:40 EDTYellen on inflation index:
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10:38 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on February 24 at 11 am.
10:25 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence February drop to 96.4
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0 in February
U.S. Richmond Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0 in February after dipping 1 point to 6 in January. The employment index dipped to 4 from 5, with the workweek tumbling to -6 from 8. Wages more than doubled to 8 from 3. New order volume declined to -2 from 4. The prices paid index was 0.32% from 0.70% (annualized percent change), with prices received at 0.09% from 0.53%. The 6-month business activity shipment index was steady at 30, with employment at 12 versus 18. The 6-month wage index was 23 from 31. New orders were 24 from 29. The capital expenditures outlook index fell to 27 from 36. The prices paid index was 0.91% from 1.17%, and prices received were 0.48% from 0.82%.
10:20 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields bolted to session highs
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February
U.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February after surging 10.7 points to 103.8 in January (revised from 102.9). Declines were registered in both components, unwinding some of the January pop. The present situations index slid to 110.2 from 113.9 (revised from 112.6). The expectations index dropped to 87.2 from 97.0 (revised from 96.4). The labor market differential fell to -5.7 from -3.9 (revised from -5.2). The 12-month inflation index edged up to 5.0% from 4.9% previously (revised from 5.0%).
10:10 EDTFed Chair Yellen: a rate hike is unlikely over the next couple of meetings
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10:09 EDTYellen says oil drop likely a 'significant overall plus'
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said today in testimony to Congress, "While the drop in oil prices will have negative effects on energy producers and will probably result in job losses in this sector, causing hardship for affected workers and their families, it will likely be a significant overall plus, on net, for our economy. Primarily, that boost will arise from U.S. households having the wherewithal to increase their spending on other goods and services as they spend less on gasoline."
10:07 EDTYellen says Fed can be 'patient' for at least next couple of meetings
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI climbed to 57.0 in February
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09:50 EDTPMI Services Flash Level data reported
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09:40 EDTYellen Monetary Policy Report preview:
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option/block Action: a large strangle
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09:37 EDTMarket opens quietly ahead of Fed Chair testimony
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09:35 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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09:15 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 0.06% in December to 173.02
U.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 0.06% in December to 173.02, versus 172.92 in November (revised down from 172.94) for the 20-City composite, beating forecasts of a small decline. This breaks a string of 3 straight monthly declines. Compared to last year, home prices accelerated to a 4.46% y/y gain versus the 4.29% y/y pace previously. The 10-City composite edged up 0.07% to 187.81 compared to November's 187.68 (revised from 187.71). That's up 4.30% y/y compared to 4.15% y/y. All 20 cities surveyed posted annual gains, led by San Francisco (9.35% y/y), Miami (8.4% y/y) and Denver (8.14% y/y).
09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained tightly rangebound
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09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made two-week highs of 1.2663
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are trading laterally
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08:59 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. Case-Shiller home price index preview:
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08:35 EDTYellen testimony might be more meaningful
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude remained under the $50 mark
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08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales dipped 0.2% in the week ended February 21
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07:55 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a luncheon discussion
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07:53 EDTCato Institute to hold a discussion
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07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
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07:50 EDT5 things to watch for in Yellen's testimony
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07:44 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses proposed criteria for developing the list of bulk drug substances that may be used to compound drug products in accordance with section 503A of the FD&C Act and also discusses six substances nominated for inclusion on the list on Day 2 of the meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, MD's offices on February 24 at 8:15 am. Webcast Link
07:42 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
The Dermatologic & Ophthalmic Drugs Advisory Committee and Ophthalmic Devices Panel discuss Avedro's New Drug Application (NDA) 203324 for Riboflavin Ophthalmic Solutions with UV-A irradiation which are used in corneal collagen cross-linking and proposed to be indicated for treatment of progressive keratoconus or corneal ectasia following refractive surgery in a joint committee meeting being held in FDA Silver Spring, Maryland's offices on February 24 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTBarron's to hold a webinar
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07:22 EDTFutures quiet ahead of Fed testimony
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06:15 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 24
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05:54 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
03:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY extended above the Tokyo high
FX Action: USD-JPY extended above the Tokyo high in making 119.29 in early London AM trade, since settling just off here. Momentum on the daily chart is positive, and both the 20- and 50-day moving averages are holding up as supports, presently sitting at 118.57 and 118.81, respectively. Recent daily highs at 119.35-41 provide a near-term resistance zone, a breach of which would swing the Feb-11 peak at 120.47 back into scope. There is reportedly a batch of big options with strikes at 120.00 that are expiring through this week, which could in theory exert some gravitational pull on spot. Despite there being a muddy picture about whether the BoJ is or isn't headed for further easing measures later this year, analysts remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, as the Fed and BoJ are on sufficiently contrasting paths that favour the dollar.
02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has continued to ply a narrow range
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February 23, 2015
22:45 EDTPhilippine imports sank 10.6% in December
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21:00 EDTJapan services PPI fell 0.5% in January
Japan services PPI fell 0.5% in January after a 0.1% decline in December. That resulted in a slowdown in the annual pace to a 3.4% y/y clip in January, from a downwardly revised 3.5% y/y rate (was 3.6% y/y). Weakness last month was in transportation and property, casualty services. The data will be disappointing to the BoJ and the government which are continuing to try to boost inflationary pressures.
17:11 EDTNovember PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
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17:11 EDTOctober PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
17:11 EDTJuly PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
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17:11 EDTMay PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
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17:11 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:11 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:11 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:40 EDTSF Fed's Williams said he would not rule out a June rate hike
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:34 EDTOPEC said to have no emergency meeting plans, Bloomberg reports
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14:29 EDTAverages drift in mid-afternoon trading
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14:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning was reported late in the session against the grain of earlier gains, perhaps setting up for Yellen testimony. This involved a 10k purchase of Short June 81/83/85/86 broken put condors. That said, deferred contracts are still up 1-8 ticks out the back end as stocks cool their heels and bonds recoup some of Friday's losses.
14:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD reacted to the earlier spike in oil
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14:10 EDTYellen Monetary Policy Report preview:
Yellen Monetary Policy Report preview: will she or won't she hint at a mid-year rate hike? Analysts expect she will split the difference, suggesting liftoff is in the cards, but not pre-committing ahead of the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. The Fed Chair will reiterate the Fed mantra that the path is data dependent. Assuming that's the case, analysts'll look for nuances on how she navigates the various crosscurrents that will determine the policy outlook. She will try to reconcile for the Congress the stronger labor market, the improved economy, and the pick up in spending with weak wages, soft inflation, and risks from overseas, but probably will not stray far from the FOMC minutes in doing so. She will likely say the Fed will be "patient" in removing stimulus especially since various conditions for tightening have yet to be met. She can also acknowledge the conflicting impacts of the stronger dollar. Her tone will be scrutinized to see if she is on the side of other Committee members who want to leave rates low for longer. "Audit the Fed" may also occupy a lot of the testimony.
14:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to $50.51
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13:15 EDTJanus' advisor Bill Gross just Tweeted:
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12:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in
U.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in ahead of Yellen's testimony tomorrow, but generally it's a more wait-and-see mode. Kinder Morgan has a $750 M 31-year bond. Arrow Electronics has a $700 M 7-year deal. Daimler Finance has a benchmark 3-year FRN. Harley -Davidson is selling $500 M in 5-year notes. Coach announced a $400 M 10-year. Commonwealth Edison is selling $400 M in a 30-year FMB. There is not a lot of pressure on Treasuries today from the offerings, or from upcoming Treasury auctions thanks to weakness in equities, some correction from oversold conditions, expectations of solid month-end demand, and as many suspect Yellen will be less than hawkish tomorrow.
12:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady just under 119.00
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12:25 EDTU.S. equities are still trending sideways
U.S. equities are still trending sideways caught between lingering doubts about the Greece-inspired rally on Friday and the upcoming Fed Yellen semi-annual testimony. Fresh energy sector angst after NYMEX crude probed $48 bbl also managed to stifle last week's rally as well, leaving the blue chips in shallow negative territory, while NASDAQ retains a weak grip on the green. Among the top gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +3.1%, du Pont +0.7% and P&G + 0.7%, while deepest losses remain Boeing -2.4% (after Goldman "sell"), Intel -1.7% and JP Morgan -1.0%.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
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11:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated after deal on bailout program
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF March call option implied volatility is at 77, April is at 73, June is at 64; compared to its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement following Greece's provisional deal on its bailout program.
11:35 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February from -4.4 in January, a 5 year low. Of course the weakness is not a surprise considering the region's exposure to the oil industry. Conditions outside the energy sector were generally upbeat.
11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate option update: more bullish positioning
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are likely to dominate near term
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11:08 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $40.0 B
10:40 EDTThe 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop
The 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop to a 4.82 M January clip left an ugly start for 2015, as did a 4.1% January median price drop to $199,600 that extended the late-2014 seasonal downswing from the $222,000 June cycle-high. Inventories posted an anemic 0.5% January bounce to a still-depressed 1.87 M level that marks a 0.5% y/y drop. Existing home sales have entered 2015 at an anemic pace and inventories remain depressed, while prices continue to post a modest cyclical climb but with gains seasonally concentrated into Q2 of each year. Analysts now have cyclical gains of just 40% for existing home sales and 32% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 72% for new home sales, 123% for housing starts, and 105% for permits. Harsh weather may hold back sales in February and March, as this gauge tracks closings and may show a delayed response to January and February storms. Weather likely had little to do with January weakness, as sales declines extended across the four regions, and the biggest drop was a 7.1% decline in the West where weather was normal.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to slide lower
Treasury Action: yields continued to slide lower with the opening declines in stocks and the weak print on existing home sales, which have caught the markets offsides. Considering that mortgage rates fell to trend lows again in January, there must be some winter freeze effects in the data that are offsetting the near historic low rates. The T-note yield probed just below 2.07% compared to highs in Asia of 2.136% and 2.141% on Friday after the Greek deal, with lower highs suggesting downward momentum building and putting Friday lows of 2.045% within reach. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +146 bp.
10:15 EDTU.S. existing home sales dropped 4.9% in January to a 4.82 M rate
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10:00 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: bullish positioning included the purchase of 5k in June 129.5 calls on 10-year futures, with March 10s some 13-ticks firmer near 127-26 relative to their 127-265 to 127-135 range on Globex.
09:43 EDTFutures improve slightly but market begins week lower
U.S. equity futures were lower overnight but improved slightly prior to the open of the broader market. The Chicago Fed national activity index was generally in-line with expectations and investors will next turn their attention to the release of the existing home sales report, which is due out at 10:00 am EST. Ahead of the housing data, the Dow is down 65 points, the Nasdaq is down 1 point and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:40 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Still Lean, though Shipments and Inventories Bounce:
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09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to highs last seen on February 12
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09:20 EDTDA Davidson construction analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:59 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
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08:54 EDTCFA Society of Seattle to hold a discusison
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08:52 EDTThe Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on monetary policy
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08:51 EDTBrookings Institution holds a discussion
Brookings hosts a discussion entitled, "The Future of Medical Device Safety & Innovation" in Washington, D.C. on February 23 at 9 am. Webcast Link
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Actvity index rebounded to 0.13 in January
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08:38 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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08:30 EDTThree central bank leaders face legislative bodies this week
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08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:43 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:41 EDTMedStar Heart Institute to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTMarket begins week in record territory
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07:20 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
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07:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 23
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.73%, DAX up 0.33%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.69, natural gas up 0.26%, gold at $1193 an ounce, copper down 0.91%.
07:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
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07:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
FX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble during London AM trade, from levels around 1.1380 to a 1.1295 low before finding a toehold. The move was prompted by disappointing German Ifo data, while Greece's four-month loan extension doesn't solve the underlying contentions of the new government in Athens. Analysts also picked up on conjecture in markets that Fed boss Yellen's testimony this week may produce hawkish sound bites, which has lifted the dollar's yield advantage back to within a whisker of last Wednesday's cycle high around 175 bp in the 10-year T-note versus Bund differential. USD-JPY nudged above Friday's peak at 119.19, making a high of 119.35 despite talk of Japanese exporter selling into month end. Cable posted six-day lows under 1.5335 on a disappointing UK CBI retails sales outcome. AUD-USD took a sizeable hit, which were blamed on a drop in commodity prices today. See summary
06:57 EDTGreece, creditors holding talks on reforms, Reuters says
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05:48 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY nudged above Friday's peak
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03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD settled to familiar levels around 1.1380
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February 22, 2015
14:11 EDTWest Coast port shutdowns avoided with five-year labor deal, Bloomberg says
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February 20, 2015
21:58 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:58 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
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21:58 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
February Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 58.7
21:58 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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21:58 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
February Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 11:00 . Current consensus is 3
21:58 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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21:58 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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21:58 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
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21:58 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
January Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 2.0% for the month
21:58 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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21:58 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
January New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 471K
21:58 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
February Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is [2.8]
21:58 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
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21:58 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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21:58 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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21:58 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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21:58 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
January Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.15
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:05 EDTTreasury Action: supply will complicate trading
Treasury Action: supply will complicate trading ahead as the debt market absorbs $90 B in shorter to intermediate coupon offerings and a $13 B 2-year FRN, all of which will be hyper sensitive to Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Additionally, traders will have to deal with the fallout from Greece and data. When issued yields are little changed after having richened most of the session. The 2-year is at 0.680%, while the 5-year is at 1.615%, with the 7-year at 1.940%. A stop here on the 2-year would be one of the cheapest in years, but it may not be high enough to compensate for the potential of Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, rates on the 5- and 7-year notes are some of the lowest in months, and that may limit buying as well. However, there is likely to be solid indirect bidding given wide spreads to core sovereigns, and especially with the ECB's QE program to begin shortly.
14:47 EDTEurogroup says agreement for Greece reached, Bloomberg reports
Bloomberg cites a Eurogroup spokesperson on the extension agreement.
14:38 EDT'Outline agreement' for Greek deal drafted, Reuters says
Euro zone finance ministers have developed an "outline agreement that could form the basis for extending" Greece's bailout, Greek officials and officials from other euro zone countries said, according to Reuters. However, no "formal deal on a common text" has been made, the news service quoted the officials as saying. Reference Link
14:22 EDTGreek bailout hopes propel Dow to new high
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13:50 EDTRetiring Philly Fed hawk Plosser is concerned about volatility
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13:35 EDTHumphrey Hawkins preview:
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13:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell
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13:15 EDTGreek official says accord on bailout may have been reached, Bloomberg reports
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13:12 EDTGreek official says accord on bailout may have been reached, Bloomberg says
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13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found some support
FX Action: USD-JPY found some support on the back of potential resolution of the Greek crisis, moving from lows of 118.30 this morning, back to highs over 118.85. Wall Street is back in the green, which has helped sentiment, though as Fed rate hike sentiment has been dialed back some since the FOMC minutes, and prospects for BoJ easing being pushed back, there will not likely be a rush to buy USD-JPY in the coming sessions.
12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: decent call buying
Treasury Option Action: decent call buying was reported in the mix, in line with the better tone on fixed income futures to round out the week amid Greek debt acrimony, with sources otherwise preoccupied by calendar roll activity. Among the larger bullish deals were purchases of 15k in April 130 calls, 16k in week 1 129/130 call spreads and 10k in June 129+ calls. This heavily outweighed bearish demand for 3k in March 128+ puts and 5k in April 126/125 put spreads and a bearish sale of 4k in June 126.5 calls among others. March 10s are still 15-ticks higher near 128-02, while June 10s are 15.5-ticks firmer near 127-115.
11:30 EDTU.S. equities snapped back from session lows
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10:50 EDTTreasury Action: short covering into the weekend has boosted Treasuries
Treasury Action: short covering into the weekend has boosted Treasuries, especially with Grexit uncertainties overhanging the markets. Equities remain cautiously lower. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 2.04% and a close there would be the lowest since February 12, though still inside the recent range. Meanwhile, the advent of Yellen's testimony next week should keep trading on the quiet side as the markets try to weigh the contradictory nature of the January FOMC policy statement, the minutes, and Fedspeak, not to mention the data. Key for her testimony will be how she navigates and spins a strengthening labor market, an improved economy (though growth has slowed from the heady Q2 and Q3 pace), deflationary price pressures, and soft wage growth. She will have to dance around the "patient" issue and not give any clear hints on whether it will be retained or dropped from the March policy statement, as she won't want to pre-empt the policy decision.
10:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call positioning
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag of flows
Euro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag of flows has trickled out over the morning. Among them were bullish purchases of 2k in Short December 90/95 call 1x2s, 2k in Green March 83/85 call spreads and 2k in Front June 95/96/97 call butterflies. There was also a sale of 2k in September 96/97 call spreads vs a purchase of June 96/97 call spreads. Sources reported some selling of volatility earlier to the tune of 7k in June 96 straddles as well. June 2015s are a tick lower at 99.59, while the deferreds are as much as 6.5-ticks higher out the back amid pre-weekend jitters over Greece.
10:04 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI rose to 54.3 in February
U.S. Markit flash PMI rose to 54.3 in February versus 53.9 for January and December. It's the highest reading since November and breaks a string of declines since September as manufacturing activity had been cooling since hitting a peak in June with the index at 57.3. The index has been above the neutral 50 threshold for nearly five-and-a-half years. Meanwhile, some of the internals offset the improved headline as both employment and new orders declined, with the latter at ist lowest since January 2014, and the former at its lowest since July. Export sales were close to stagnation, according to the report. Input prices dipped modestly to the lowest level since July 2012.
09:47 EDTGreek issues weigh on market
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09:30 EDTEnergy Action: February NYMEX crude is down
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09:15 EDTU.S. CPI was revised slightly higher
U.S. CPI was revised slightly higher with its annual release of new seasonal factors. December CPI was nudged up to -0.3% versus the -0.4% reported previously. The core rate was also bumped up to 0.1% versus unchanged initially. There were no changes to November's prints of -0.3% and 0.1% for the headline and core rates, respectively, while the headline October rate was revised up to 0.1% from flat. The small revisions don't really alter the picture of soft price pressures.
09:03 EDTOppenheimer technology analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD ran up to 1.2530 from 1.2470
FX Action: USD-CAD ran up to 1.2530 from 1.2470 following ugly Canadian retail sales data. The pairing has been on the decline through the London morning session, as oil prices stabilized some at higher levels, though the data has trumped for the near term at least. Yesterday's 1.2554 peak provides initial resistance from here.
08:45 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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08:26 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:21 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a discussion
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: February NYMEX crude
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are firmer
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07:17 EDTThe FDA to hold a public workshop
Public Workshop entitled, "Optimizing FDA's Regulatory Oversight of Next Generation Sequencing Diagnostic Test" will discuss and receive feedback from the community on FDA’s regulatory approach to diagnostic tests for human genetics or genomics using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) technology in Bethesda, Maryland on February 20 at 8:30 am.
07:15 EDTFDA Orthopaedic & Rehabilitation Devices Panel to hold a meeting
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07:01 EDTFutures quiet as Greek deadline approaches
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06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a clobber
FX Update: EUR-USD took a clobber, triggering stops through 1.1350 before extending to an eight-day low at 1.1303 after breaching recent lows at 1.1319-22. The move also marks a decisive break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1355. Markets are still waiting on Greece's negotiations with the Eurozone, while the dollar's yield advantage pushed out back above 170 bp at the 10-year T-note versus Bund differential. Fed's Bullard said he is worried markets may view the Fed as falling behind the curve, and a WSJ article yesterday postulated that this week's FOMC minutes weren't as dovish as they appeared on closer inspection. Sterling, meanwhile, traded softer, partly in reaction to sub-forecast retail sales data out of the UK and partly as a consequence of remarks by BoE MPC member McCafferty, who expressed some concern about the pound's strength (which is trading at seven-year highs against the euro), in an interview in the Independent newspaper today. Cable traded to a two-day low at 1.5352 after dropping from levels around 1.5430, extending the correction from Wednesday's near two-month peak at 1.5480. USD-JPY ebbed back to the 118.60-70 area as the pair reverses some of yesterday's gain. See summary
06:41 EDTEuro zone PMI rose in February, NY Times reports
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06:35 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility up on Greek bailout talks with EU
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05:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 20
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04:17 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is today,February 20, 2015
02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD remains heavy
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02:04 EDTWeek of 3/4 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:04 EDTWeek of 2/23 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:04 EDTFebruary Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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00:10 EDTBoJ governor Kuroda: achieving a 2% inflation target is possible
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February 19, 2015
16:43 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 2/9 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$9.8B
16:43 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:43 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
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16:43 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:43 EDTWeek of 2/27 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:43 EDTWeek of 3/1 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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20:13 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 2/28 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 300K
15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed up from session lows on Thursday of their own volition after stocks sagged on fresh "Grexit" reports, declines on oil and another round of mostly weaker data. It probably didn't hurt that WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath said Wednesday's FOMC minutes were not as dovish upon closer inspection, but analysts expect the dovish-leaning Fed to take a full measure of the economy before hiking in September at earliest anyway. Though jobless claims sank back below 300k, the Philly Fed index and LEI came up short. ECB minutes were pretty dovish as expected.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: the advent of Yellen's testimony next week
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13:40 EDTFX Action
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13:20 EDTTreasury 30-year TIPS sale was very strong
Treasury 30-year TIPS sale was very strong, supported by a record high indirect bid. The issue stopped at 0.842% versus 0.855% at the bid deadline. There was a 2.43 bid cover, better than the 2.29 at the October reopening. And it compares to the prior new issue last February of 2.34. Indirect bidders accepted 69.0%, a record high as noted above.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields stalled at highs
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12:56 EDTGermany says Greece's loan application 'not substantial,' Reuters says
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12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has headed back under 1.2500
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11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish call selling
Treasury Option Action: bearish call selling was reported by sources earlier, in the form of a sale of April 129.5 calls vs 10-year futures, said to be a pretty active strike. There has been some talk of persistent bullish demand for June 130 calls, however, following some 10k in 127/130/133 call butterflies bought yesterday just before the dovish FOMC minutes. June 10s are still 4-ticks lower near 127-065, while March 10s are 5-ticks lower at 127-275 compared to their 128-08 to 127-22 range.
11:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar remains moderate
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11:15 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied initially to $51.50
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of coupon offerings
Treasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of coupon offerings for next week, with volumes unchanged from January. The debt managers also outlined a $13 B 2-year FRN reopening and a $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale. The coupon auctions include a $26 B 2-year note (Tuesday), a $35 B 5-year note (Wednesday), and a $29 B 7-year note. Supply could be a big hurdle for the bond market given Yellen's Monetary Policy Report (Tuesday, Wednesday) and the more bearish trend that has set in this month.
11:01 EDTCrude inventories for week of February 13
Crude oil inventories 7.72M build vs. consensus of 3.0M build. Gasoline inventories 3.81M draw vs. consensus of 2.0M draw. Distillates 3.81M draw vs. consensus of 2.0M draw.
10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning has prevailed, though the underlying rate futures are fairly mixed. Among them were a bearish sale of 4k in Green September 76/78/81/83 call condors (possible position roll), along with a 5k purchase of Green June 75/77/80 put trees and a puchase of 15k in Front December 87/88/90 put butterflies. On the bullish side was a purchase of 10k in December 92/95 call spreads vs a sale of December 90 puts. The lead June 2015 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.605, while the deferreds are 1-2 ticks firmer on the nearby dates, but 1-2 ticks lower at the back-end.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending February 13
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10:25 EDTThe Philly Fed down-tick to a 5.2 one-year low
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields drifted lower
Treasury Action: yields drifted lower following the drops in Philly Fed and LEI data, which came in below more upbeat expectations, while stocks have skipped a beat as well, trading lower but for the NASDAQ. There apparently was also a NY think tank report floated on preparations for a "dirty exit" by Greece from the Eurozone that preyed on investor fears for the region. The T-note yield eased briefly under 2.08% compared to session highs of 2.102% and lows of 2.043%, with the 50% retrace of 2.08% proving sticky for now.
10:15 EDTU.S. leading index rose 0.2% to 121.1 in January
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged slightly lower
FX Action: The dollar edged slightly lower after the Philly Fed and leading indicators misses, though reaction was muted. EUR-USD edged over 1.1380 from 1.1370, as USD-JPY fell to 118.90 from 119.00. Wall Street remains lower, with yields off their highs.
10:10 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index fell to 5.2 in February
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10:00 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
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10:00 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
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09:53 EDTAverges mixed in early trade with Dow weighed on by Wal-Mart
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09:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 2/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 44.6
09:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has traded under the $50/bbl
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09:20 EDTFed minutes were not so dovish upon closer inspection
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD maintains altitude above 1.2500
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are on the back foot again
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08:50 EDTThe 21k U.S. initial claims drop to 283k
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their rebound
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 21k to 283k in the week ended February 14
U.S. initial jobless claims fell 21k to 283k in the week ended February 14, following the 25k jump to 304k previously. That brought the 4-week moving average down to 283.25k versus 289.75k previously. Continuing claims rose 58k to 2,425k for the week ended February 7 after a 39k decline to 2,367k previously (revised from 2,354k). The headline decline was a little larger than expected, but claims are still seeing some distortions from holidays. The BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data, however.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar was virtually unchanged
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08:39 EDTThe NYSSA to hold American Gas Association Luncheon
American Gas Association Chairman McCallister makes the annual presentation, "Natural Gas--America's New Energy Foundation" to the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) in New York on February 19 at 11:30 am.
08:35 EDTFutures remain quiet following claims data
Stock futures remain near fair value following the release of the weekly jobless claims report. There were 283K Initial claims versus expectations of 290K, while continuing claims came in at 2.42M versus the consensus outlook of 2.36M.
08:23 EDTConsumer Financial Protection Bureau to hold a meeting
Winter 2015 Consumer Advisory Board Meeting with Director Cordray will focus on trends and themes related to consumer financial well being and medical debt and is being held at CFPB Washington, D.C. offices on February 19 at 10 am.
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims are expected to fall 9k to 295k (median 290k) in the week-ended February 14, while continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,420k for the week-ended February 7 from 2,354k. There is risk of a fall after last week's 25k spike higher. preview for more.
08:09 EDTSEC to hold a roundtable
The Commission explores ways to improve the proxy voting process, focusing on universal proxy ballots and retail participation in the proxy process in a roundtable to be held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on February 19 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude slid from $51.80 to lows of $50.28
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to modestly lower
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up overnight, moving back toward pre-FOMC minutes levels against major currencies. U.S. names were reportedly sellers of EUR-USD and USD-JPY out of the gates, which took the former to intra day lows of 1.1360, and the latter to 118.80 from near 119.10. The action was reportedly EUR-JPY related, with selling stepping in after the earlier failure of the cross to breach the 136.00 level. In addition, Greece's request for a loan extension has not been well received, especially by EU politicians, who largely view the request as a "bridge-loan", not in keeping with the previous bailout conditions. Elsewhere, USD-CAD is up testing the 1.2500 mark, as oil prices moved lower once again. The U.S. calendar is fairly busy, kicking off with weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EST. The February Philly Fed index is due at 10:00 EST, along with January leading indicators. Weekly EIA petroleum inventories are due at 11:00 EST.
07:46 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a discussion
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07:37 EDTThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to hold a meeting
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07:35 EDTPeterson Institute for International Economics to hold a discussion
U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs, Nathan Sheets, returning from the G-20 Finance Ministerial Meeting, provides his perspective on the global economy in a discussion entitled, "Perspectives on the Global Economy" in Washington, D.C. on February 19 at 8:15 am. Webcast Link
07:26 EDTThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to hold a conference
National Overview Technical Conference is being held in Washington, D.C. on February 19 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:22 EDTVirtu Financial expected to file revised IPO prospectus 'within days,' WSJ says
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07:19 EDTGerman finance ministry rejects Greek extension proposal, Bloomberg reports
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07:15 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered a chuck of yesterday's losses
FX Update: The dollar recovered a chuck of yesterday's losses that were seen after the FOMC minutes. Rumoured Swiss franc selling by the SNB in EUR-CHF apparently helped support USD-CHF, which in turn prompted EUR-USD lower after a double rejection from 1.1450. News that Greek has asked for a six-month loan agreement didn't have much impact, certainly not positively, as this, if agreed by the Eurogroup tomorrow, would only buy time rather than address bailout conditions. EUR-CHF posted a new high for the third consecutive day in making 1.0799 amid market rumours of the SNB's guiding hand. The peak today is the highest level seen since the SNB abandonment of the franc cap on Jan-15. USD-JPY recovered the 119 handle after making a two-day low at 118.43 in thin Asian trade, with Hong Kong, Singapore and China markets closed for the Lunar New Year. See summary
07:05 EDTOil falls as inventories rise
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered a chuck of yesterday's losses
FX Update: The dollar recovered a chuck of yesterday's losses that were seen after the FOMC minutes. Rumoured Swiss franc selling by the SNB in EUR-CHF apparently helped support USD-CHF, which in turn prompted EUR-USD lower after a double rejection from 1.1450. News that Greek has asked for a six-month loan agreement didn't have much impact, certainly not positively, as this, if agreed by the Eurogroup tomorrow, would only buy time rather than address bailout conditions. EUR-CHF posted a new high for the third consecutive day in making 1.0799 amid market rumours of the SNB's guiding hand. The peak today is the highest level seen since the SNB abandonment of the franc cap on Jan-15. USD-JPY recovered the 119 handle after making a two-day low at 118.43 in thin Asian trade, with Hong Kong, Singapore and China being closed for Lunar New Year. See summary
06:51 EDTGreece submits request for extension of euro zone loans, Reuters reports
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06:01 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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04:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 19
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.45 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.36%, DAX down 0.05%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $50.02, natural gas up 0.32%, gold at $1215 an ounce, copper down 0.57%.
03:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower
FX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower post-FOMC minutes, which wrong-footed markets with its dovish undertone. The pair is settled back in the mid-118s after closing yesterday in London at 119.14. A two-day low was logged at 118.43 in thin Tokyo trade (Hong Kong, Singapore and China were closed for Lunar New Year), and has since settled about 20-30 pips above here. A news report in the Sankei newspaper that the BoJ is considering delaying the timing of the 2% CPI target also gave the yen an underpinning. The report fits the tone of the central bank's post-meeting statement yesterday (that the economy is set to recover without additional stimulus), and Governor Kuroda's remarks (that there is no imminent need for more stimulus). Analysts still remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, however, as the Fed and BoJ should be sufficiently contrasting to the favour of the dollar.
02:04 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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February 18, 2015
21:50 EDTFed governor Powell recap: Fed doesn't target asset prices
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19:30 EDTJapan's January merchandise trade deficit deteriorated further to JPY 1.18 tln
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16:51 EDTWeek of 2/27 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Well, the dovish Fed minutes wrong-footed the bond market on Wednesday, especially after yields had just lunged toward calendar year highs in advance. Another weak round of MBA, PPI, housing starts and production data had already slowed the sell-off on Treasuries prior to the minutes, however, but the knee-jerk rally followed from many at the Fed still fretting over growth sustainability and low inflation. The FOMC also worried about being boxed in on a rate lift-off if "patient" is dropped, while many leaned toward keeping rates "lower for longer." That whacked yields, stocks and the dollar lower as the Fed hike risk horizon stretched out once again.
14:55 EDTFed funds futures rallied on the FOMC mintues
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14:39 EDTAverages little changed after short-lived bounce following Fed minutes
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14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell broadly
FX Action: The dollar fell broadly after the release of the FOMC minutes, which seemed to question the timing of raising rates. Equities took this as a positive, as Wall Street initially pared gains, but the dollar took a turn for the worse. EUR-USD spiked to 1.1411 highs from 1.1340, as USD-JPY fell under 118.70 from 119.75.
14:16 EDTWeek of 2/27 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
14:15 EDTFOMC minutes suggested a less hawkish stance than the markets feared
FOMC minutes suggested a less hawkish stance than the markets feared. Many officials thought that removing the word "patient" could lead to an unwanted shift in market expectations for rate liftoff. It also suggested many policymakers were inclined to stay at zero rates for longer. However, there was widespread views that policy should remain data dependent. While risks were seen as nearly balances, many saw downside risks if foreign weakness worsened. The slowdown in China was particularly noted. There were also worries that tepid wage growth could restrain spending. Also, the stronger dollar could be a persistent drag on exports. There were mixed views on the decline in oil prices, with some seeing it underpinning spending. On the other hand, several participants noted the bearish impact of layoffs from the oil and gas industries. The back-and-forth in the minutes leaves a June hike on the table, but did not heighten the risk.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a dive
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14:02 EDTMinutes show many Fed members inclined to keep rates lower for longer
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13:54 EDTGreek finance minister pledges cooperation, reforms, Business Insider reports
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13:48 EDTECB approves ELA for Greek banks for two weeks, Dow Jones says
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13:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has posted new intra day lows
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has posted new intra day lows of $51.84, falling from session highs of $53.19, and under early lows of $51.89. Sources say the Exxon-Mobil refinery incident in California had little to do with the latest crude sell-off, though with refinery maintenance and labor action outages, a broken refinery won't do anything to improve the crude demand picture.
13:35 EDTU.S. FOMC minutes preview:
U.S. FOMC minutes preview: the minutes should reveal a more upbeat outlook on the economy and labor market. But there's not likely to be any strong indication over the timing of rate liftoff. Nevertheless, the tone of minutes could set the stage for Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report next week. The discussion around the inclusion of the "financial and international developments," the main surprise out of the January 27, 28 policy statement will be closely examined for any hints on what risks might be standing out. Also of interest will be the new watch word, "patient." Analysts're likely to see considerable discussion over its longevity. Fedspeak has indicated most Committee members support the view that inflation is being temporarily depressed by declining energy prices.
12:40 EDTTreasury Curve Action: slight flattening
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11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY peaked at 119.36
FX Action: USD-JPY peaked at 119.36 early in the session, and has since faded to 119.08 lows, as stocks languish in shallow negative territory, and as yields fade some. Bidding interest has been reported into 119.00, with offers seen into 119.40 now. Stops are rumored at 119.50, though thick Japanese exporter offers are said to be parked from 119.80 to 120.00. BoJ chief Kuroda affirmed overnight that there is no imminent need for more stimulus, which for now at least may take some urgency away from buying USD-JPY.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction was solid
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning in block trade
Euro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning in block trade was reported in the form of purchases of 15k in September 95/96 call 1x2s and 3k in September call 2x3s. Otherwise it was a pretty quiet start, say sources, with the bullish sale of 1.5k in Short March 88 puts as well. The June 2015 contract is a half-tick higher near 99.57, while the deferreds are mixed ranging from -0.5 to +3 ticks.
10:00 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. industrial production utility-led bounce in January
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09:38 EDTMarket opens slightly lower after housing, industrial production data
Stock futures traded slightly below fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, with little help from the early economic reports, which included lower than expected housing starts and industrial production growth. The focus will now be on this afternoon’s release of the minutes from the January FOMC meeting, which are scheduled for release at 2:00 pm EST. In early trading, the Dow is down 34 points, the Nasdaq is down 2 points and the S&P is down 3 points.
09:35 EDTThe 2.0% January U.S. housing starts drop
The 2.0% January U.S. housing starts drop to a 1.065 M clip tracked estimates, after small downward revisions that left a small disappointment, alongside a 0.7% permits drop to a 1.053 M rate that reflected a new series based on a 2014 "universe" of places that require permits, versus 2004. January housing starts weakness was led by the single family component, which fell 6.7%, and with starts in the Midwest, which plunged 22% due to harsh weather. The weather has had an oscillating effect on data this winter, as a harsh November was followed by a mild December, but then harsh weather again in January and February. These gyrations were documented by the industrial production report's utility figures, given a 2.3% January bounce after a 6.9% December decline but 3.6% November rise. Beyond weather, the single-digit pace of the housing market recovery since 2013 is disappointing, as the sector faces an ongoing headwind from mortgage market dysfunction and investor caution. Analysts now expect growth for starts under construction of 14% in Q1 that matches the 14% (was 15%) rate in Q4, and our Q1 GDP estimate remains at 2.5%.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained below highs
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09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased a touch
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in January
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09:15 EDTFOMC minutes will show how "patient" debate is evolving
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09:06 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 2/14 Redbook Store Sales up 3.2% for the year
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are in shallow negative territory
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD found support into the 1.2400 level
FX Action: USD-CAD found support into the 1.2400 level through the London morning session, and rallied to intra day highs of 1.2456 in early North American dealings. The move came as WTI crude touched intra day lows of $52.24, after peaking at $53.36 in London. Soft U.S. PPI data helped the USD in general a bit lower, which offset the better Canadian wholesale data, taking USD-CAD back into 1.2425.
09:00 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:55 EDTThe 0.8% U.S. January PPI drop
The 0.8% U.S. January PPI drop with a 0.1% core price decline undershot estimates thanks to a 0.8% plunge in transportation and warehousing service prices that allowed a 0.2% drop for service prices overall. Analysts saw the expected big 2.1% January goods price drop with declines of 10.3% for energy and 1.1% for food. Analysts expect a 0.1% PPI drop in February with a 0.1% core price rise, though if the early-February bounce in oil and gasoline prices continues analysts may need to raise these estimates into month-end. On the old SOP basis, analysts saw a 2.1% headline PPI plunge that followed decreases of 1.1% in December and 0.8% in November, alongside a 0.2% core price rise. Last Friday's trade price report revealed a huge 2.0% January export price plunge that accompanied an oil-led 2.8% import price decline, alongside core price declines of 0.4% for exports and 0.6% for imports. Analysts still expect 0.5% headline declines for both CPI and PCE chain prices, with a 0.1% core price gain for CPI and a flat PCE core figure.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved a touch lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their pull-back
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI fell 0.8% in January, while the core rate dipped 0.1%
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts slid 2.0% to 1.065 M in January
U.S. housing starts slid 2.0% to 1.065 M in January, a little better than expected, following December's 7.1% jump to a 1.087 M clip (revised from 1.089 M), with November bumped down to 1.015 M from 1.043 M previously. Building permits fell 0.7% to a 1.053 M rate from a revised 1.058 M previously (was 1.032 M). Single family starts dropped 6.7% and multifamily starts rose 7.5% last month.
08:35 EDTFutures remain quiet following housing and prices data
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08:30 EDTFed governor Powell will deliver a lecture
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08:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:20 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
U.S. PPI Preview: January PPI data is seen down -0.5% (median -0.4%) for the month following a -0.3% decline in December. The core index should be up 0.1% following a 0.3% increase in December. Price data has been depressed lately as collapsing oil prices have weighed on headlines, WTI oil prices plunged -19.4% in January. For the whole story, see our PPI preview.
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to better than two-week highs
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08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales rebounded 2.3% in the week ended February 4
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 13.2%
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07:31 EDTFederal Open Market Committee issues minutes of meeting
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended declines in light trading
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended declines in light trading with many Asian markets closing for New Year and Golden Week holidays. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.16%. Overseas sovereigns declined as well amid hopes Greece will ask for a loan extension by the end of the week, suggesting the government might accept a bailout (which isn't the same thing). U.K. Gilts were the underperformer on strong labor market data. Meanwhile, the BoE minutes showed signs of a division among the 9 voting members. Attention is also turning to the upcoming January 27, 28 FOMC minutes. Many in the markets are looking for a more upbeat assessment in general that could presage Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report next week and heighten the risk the word "patient" is removed at the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting, and keep a June rate hike on the table. Today's data includes January housing starts, January industrial production, January PPI, and the December TIC data (which was rescheduled from yesterday). The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped another 13.2% in the week ended February 13. Fed Governor Powell will speak on regulation.
07:26 EDTFutures quiet ahead of economic reports
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07:17 EDTFederal Reserve Board Governor Powell to speak at a lecture
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07:15 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:05 EDTFX Update: Sterling was the star performer
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06:46 EDTGreece to ask for extension of euro zone loans today, Reuters says
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06:33 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility up, WTI at $53
SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF overall option implied volatility of 43 compares to its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
05:22 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 18
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04:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
04:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled in the low 119s
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03:15 EDTBoJ's Kuroda said there is no imminent need for more stimulus
BoJ's Kuroda said there is no imminent need for more stimulus during his post policy meeting press conference. He remarked that, "I don't think there is any change in the price trend at the moment," tagging on his usual boilerplate comment that "if there is any change in the price trend, analysts won't hesitate to adjust policy." This confirms the prevailing no-extra-stimulus-for-now market view. There remains a soft consensus that the BoJ will take additional easing measures later in the year, although some Japanese politicians, and allegedly some BoJ board members (according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg recently), are concerned that more stimulus might bring unwelcome yen weakness.
February 17, 2015
17:38 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:40 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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15:35 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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15:26 EDTCBOE Interest Rate 10-year T-Note TNX is recenlty up 6.1% to $21.45
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15:16 EDTAverages drifting in positive territory
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Bond yields backed up sharply to resume the shortened week on Tuesday, amid counterveiling reports about an extension deal with Greek debt. Otherwise, the data wasn't that impressive considering the Empire State index sank as did the NAHB housing market index. Fed hawk Mester said on Monday that a June hike remained a viable option, while retiring hawk Plosser skirted the issue.
14:35 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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14:31 EDTWeek of 2/28 Redbook to be released at 08:55
14:00 EDTMore from Plosser:
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13:00 EDTFed's Plosser did not speak on monetary policy or the economy
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12:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning cropped up as well on 10-year futures, more in keeping with the defensive tone today, though sources characterized activity overall as sluggish. Among the larger trades were buyers of 5k in April 127/126.5/125 put trees, 5k in April 127/126 put spreads, and 6k in April 127/125/123 put butterflies. On the bullish side were buyers of 8k in June 130 calls, 3k in April 129+/131 call spreads and 3k in week 4 127/128 calls 1x1.5s. Also there were bullish sellers of 5k in April 126+/125 put spreads and 5k in April 127/126 put spreads. March 10s are 27-ticks lower now near 127-14 compared to their 128-14 to 127-11 range.
11:55 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was ok
Treasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was ok with the longer dated tranche outperforming. The $26 B 3-month bill stopped 0.015%, right on screws, and fractionally richer than last week's 0.02%. There were $106.8 B in bids for 4.13 cover, versus the prior 4.44 and a 4.25 average. Indirect bidders took only 13.5%, only about one-third of last week's 39.4%. The $26 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.065%, also right on the bid at the deadline, but 2 bps below last week's award rate. Bids totaled $113.3 B for a 4.39 cover, down from 4.43 previously, but better than the 4.15 average. Indirect bidders accepted 42.7%, consistent with the prior 47.3%, and better than the 36.7% average.
11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to trade on either side of 119
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11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
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11:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bullish positioning included a purchase of 2k in March 129/130 call spreads, definitely against the grain of the sell-off on underlying March 10s, which are some 18-ticks lower near 127-215 compared to a range of 128-14 to 127-185. Stocks appear immune to setbacks on Ukraine and Greece, while bearish momentum on 10-year futures continues.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Wednesday
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11:08 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $40.0 B
11:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is filling today
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10:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has sold off to $50.79
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has sold off to $50.79 lows, down from opening levels near $53.00. The firmer dollar this morning has weighed on oil and commodity prices in general, with gold futures down 1.75% at $1,205/ounce, silver down 5% at $16.40/ounce, and copper off 1.25% at $2.57/pound. WTI support on the hourly chart comes in at $50.60-50, with a break there opening the door for a test of $50.00.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB houmebuilder sentiment index fell 2 points to 55 in February
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10:08 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
February Housing Market Index at 55 vs. consensus of 58
10:08 EDTE-Commerce Retail Sales E- Q/Q Change SAAR data reported
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: the bond market is treading cautiously
Treasury Action: the bond market is treading cautiously as fundamentals seem to have gone by the wayside for now. Neither Greek uncertainties, continued violence in Ukraine, nor some weakness in equities are motivating much safe-haven buying. Treasuries also are seeing little demand from overseas accounts despite further widening in credit spreads, which continues to baffle many strategists, who are still looking at curve flattening trades as well. The potential for a June Fed rate hike are keeping some sidelined ahead of the FOMC minutes and next week's "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony from Yellen. A hefty corporate calendar has weighed recently, but today's slate is limited. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.05%, with the bond at 2.66%, the highest since the start of the year.
09:37 EDTMarket opens in negative territory
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09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased from 1.2450 to 1.2363 lows
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09:15 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester is adding her voice to June rate hike chorus
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09:05 EDTThe Empire State down-tick to 7.78
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09:02 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Industrials Analysts provide a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call on February 17 at 11 am.
09:00 EDTThe dollar eased a bit
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are narrowly mixed
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08:54 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 17:00
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
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08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index fell to 7.8 in February
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08:36 EDTFutures trade near fair value ahead of open
Stock futures are slightly lower following the release of the first economic data point of the week. The Empire Manufacturing report came in at 7.8 versus the consensus outlook of 8.0. Last month, it had a reading of 9.95.
08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude peaked at $53.51
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08:15 EDTU.S. Empire State preview:
U.S. Empire State preview: Empire State should hold steady at 10.0 in February (median 8.3) from January. Forecast risk is downward, however, given the potential drag from falling oil prices. This compares to a recent low of -7.8 in January and a high of 28.0 in September. preview for more detail.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar is lower against the European major currencies this morning, with EUR-USD gains leading the way. The single currency rallied to 1.1449, levels last seen on February 5, despite the EU/Greek talks breakdown on Monday, where many now think some sort of deal is possible this week. USD-JPY moved off its nearly two-week low of 118.25, peaking at 118.92 into the N.Y. open, though overall remains in a holding pattern ahead of the BoJ meeting later this week. The U.S. calendar reveals the February N.Y. Fed index at 8:30 EST, along with the February NAHB housing market index at 10:00 EST. December Treasury TIC flows are due at 16:00 EST.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global markets are mixed
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07:42 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Tech Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:42 EDTFutures off lows following Greek debt talk break down
U.S. equity futures are mixed but off their lowest levels from last night. The talks over Greece’s bailout broke down yesterday. Athens has until Friday to reach a deal with its euro zone partners. Investors are making their way back from the holiday weekend, but winter storms around the country have slowed down their return, especially in the Northeast. The major economic data slated to be released today are the Empire Manufacturing report and the NAHB Housing Market Index, kicking off a fairly busy week of reporting.
07:30 EDTSEC Advisory Committee on Small and Emerging Companies holds teleconference
The Committee holds a meeting via teleconference to discuss consideration of recommendations to the Commission regarding the definition of “accredited investor" on February 17 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
07:26 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic outlook
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Plosser speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in a meeting being held in Philadelphia on February 17 at 12:45 pm.
07:22 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:16 EDTFitch Ratings to hold a teleconference
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06:53 EDTGreek debt talks suspended, Reuters reports
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06:33 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility increases on bailout talks
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05:31 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 17
Globex S&P futures are recently down 7.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.10%, DAX down 0.73%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $53.36, natural gas up 1.89%, gold at $1280 an ounce, copper down 0.44%.
04:19 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
02:40 EDTFX Update: A lack of progress with Greece
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February 16, 2015
20:00 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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20:00 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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20:00 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
13:56 EDTGreece rejects EU proposal to extend existing bailout, Bloomberg says
Talks in Brussels today on a Greek aid deal ended as an official from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government said the euro area’s proposal to extend existing bailout commitments was “absurd” and “unacceptable,” says Bloomberg. Reference Link
13:25 EDTFX Summary: EUR-USD dipped below Friday's low
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been mixed
FX Update: The dollar has been mixed, posting moderate losses against the euro and yen, while gaining against sterling. EUR-USD traded north of 1.1400 for the most part after closing just below here on Friday. USD-JPY edged out a one-week low at 118.36 during Tokyo trade amid a bout of general dollar softness, subsequently settling 118.60, about 20 pips down on last week's closing level. The Feb-9 low at 118.33 remained untroubled. Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data today showed Japan exiting recession but not as strongly as expected, which helps maintain the view that the BoJ is likely to make fresh stimulus later in the year (though not likely as soon as this week's policy meeting). Cable tumbled to the 1.5370 area on profit taking and a bid tone in EUR-GBP after clocking a six-week high of 1.5440 during early London trade, which had been seen as the market reacted to a fresh set of hawkish BoE-speak. USD-CAD ebbed to a 10-day low at 1.2421 before steadying around 1.2440-50. The Canadian dollar has found an underpinning amid stronger oil prices in recent days.
03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is moderately firmer today
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