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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 12, 2015
09:55 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
U.S. Business Inventories Preview: The December business inventories are expected to remain unchanged (median 0.2%) on the month with sales falling by -0.9%. This follows respective November figures of 0.2% and -0.2%. Data in line with this forecast will leave the I/S ratio for the month up to 1.32 from 1.31 in November. The already released factory goods report had inventories down -0.3% with sales down -1.1% and wholesale trade had inventories up 0.1% with sales down -0.4%.
09:51 EDTHouse Judiciary Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Regulatory Reform, Commercial and Antitrust Law holds a hearing entitled, "Oversight of Justice Dept's Mortgage Lending Settlements" on February 12 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
09:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed early positioning
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:40 EDTMarket opens higher despite weaker retail sales report
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09:40 EDTHouse Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "2015 Agenda for CFTC: review the 2015 Agenda for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission" with Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Timothy Massad on February 12 at 10 am. Webcast Link
09:40 EDTTreasury 30-year bond outlook: the $16 B auction should go well
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09:20 EDTThe 0.8% headline U.S. retail sales drop in January
The 0.8% headline U.S. retail sales drop in January with an even bigger 1.0% ex-auto drop extended December declines to leave a weaker than expected report, though analysts saw small net upward revisions in the "core" figures for December that modestly boosted Q4 GDP growth prospects. Analysts now expect a slightly smaller downward Q4 GDP growth revision to 1.9% (was 1.8%) from 2.6%, with a $3 B boost in consumption that accompanies other expected bumps of $1 B for equipment and $5 B for construction, but larger downward bumps of $20 B for net exports and $20 B for inventories. Our Q1 GDP estimate remains at 2.5%, with 4.3% growth in real consumption spending that nearly matches the estimated 4.4% (was 4.3%) clip in Q4. Analysts assume a flat January nominal PCE figure with a 0.5% "real" gain, alongside a 0.5% PCE chain price drop that matches the decline analysts expect in the January CPI report. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.9% December sales plunge, after a revised November decline of 0.4% (was 0.2%), and a 0.3% drop in October. Today's retail sales data are consistent with a 0.8% business sales decline in next month's January report.
09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: front-month activity picked up
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08:55 EDTThe 25k rise in U.S. initial claims to 304k
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities shed some gains
U.S. equities shed some gains following the sour prints on retail sales and jobless claims, however distorted by tumbling gas prices at the pump. This came after they were bolstered overnight with Europe in the wake of the Ukraine ceasefire (second time's a charm), along with some progress in Greek talks (though no agreement). In addition, the Swedish Riksbank rate cut to below zero and SEK 10 B in QE bond buying gave markets there another kick in the pants. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.6% higher, with the Stockholm OMX outperforming at 2.3%, while Athens is 4.5% higher. On Wall Street the Dow is 71-points higher, S&P gained 8-points and NASDAQ is up 24-points in pre-open trade, still showing some resilience after the data-induced dip. In corporate news, Tesla sank nearly 9% after an earnings miss, while Cisco rallied nearly 7% after much stronger earnings gains.
08:51 EDTFutures remain higher following economic data
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
FX Action: The dollar fell after the firmer claims and weaker retail sales data, taking EUR-USD to intra day highs of 1.1370 from 1.1330, and USD-JPY down to 119.30 from 119.70. Yields edged a touch lower, as equity futures gains were pared, though continue to indicate a moderately higher Wall Street open. FX trade has been very quiet in the lead up to the data, and analysts expect follow through dollar selling will be limited, unless the risk backdrop heads south.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales skidded 0.8% in January and fell 0.9% excluding autos
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields fell down
Treasury Action: yields fell down following the subpar readings on retail sales and jobless claims, which tarnished the U.S. image as the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the global economy, though without the plunges in gasoline and auto sales retail sales would have at least risen 0.2%. Yet, the T-note yield stalled at 2.048% after ramping higher on optimism out of Europe on the Eastern and fiscal fronts, before dipping a toe back under 2.0% again, compared to 1.97% session lows. The 2s-10s spread eased to +135 bp from +138 bp wides as stocks pare their gains.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 25k to 304k in the week ended January 7
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 25k to 304k in the week ended January 7 from 279k (revised from 278k) for the January 31 week. Claims are still recoiling from the 42k plunge in the January 24 week. The 4-week moving average was 289.75k versus the prior 293k (revised from 292.75k). Continuing claims were 2,354k in the week ended January 31 compared to 2,405k previously (revised from 2,400k). The BLS said there were no special circumstances, though analysts suspect there are seasonal and weather factors at play.
08:15 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: core sovereign bond markets are lower
Treasury Market Outlook: core sovereign bond markets are lower as demand for risk rebounds on reports of a Ukraine cease fire. The 10-year Treasury yield is 2 bps higher at 2.035%. Yesterday's finish at 2.018% was the first close over the 2.0% level since January 8. The German DAX is up over 1.5% and the S&P 500 has climbed to just shy of its December 29 record high. EUR-USD is also pushing higher, as are commodity bloc currencies. Meanwhile, the Riskbank unexpectedly cut rates and announced a bond buying program. Also, Greece apparently blocked a deal with the Eurogroup finance ministers at the last minute. As for today's U.S. slate, there's a $16 B 30-year bond auction which will complete the February refunding after two very successful auctions. Data will be important with January retail sales on tap, along with initial jobless claims and business inventories. Earnings include Dr Pepper Snapple, Kraft Foods, Kellogg, McGraw Hill, Apache, Rio Tinto, Boyd Gaming, L'Oreal, and WWE.
07:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered
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