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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 3, 2015
12:50 EDTTreasury Action: outperformance in the belly
Treasury Action: outperformance in the belly of the yield curve has been the net result of the latest downshift in yields as the stock market rally begins to tire and the markets set up for tomorrow's payrolls report. PIMCO's El-Erian also said that he was considering a shift into the belly, where he was starting to see some value after advocating a "barbell" strategy of cash and high tech. The 5-year yield is down 3.4 basis points to the 1.486% area, while the 2-year yield is 2 bp lower near 0.70%, the 10-year off 2.6 bp to 2.167% and the 30-year 2 bp lower at 2.944%. The 2s-10s spread has accordingly held steady near +147 bp, while the 5s-30s spread has steepened 2 bp to +146 bp from Wednesday's close.
12:25 EDTU.S. equities have taken a breather
U.S. equities have taken a breather from their breathless rally, but remain 0.5-0.8% higher on the day after a strong finish in Europe with a 2.2% gain on the Euro Stoxx 50 after the ECB widened its QE net a bit. The S&P 500 has since come up shy of the 1,980 level, which stands in the way of a test of 1,990 50% retrace of the August fall and the 1,993.4 post-Black Monday high, the next thresholds on the upside. Within the Dow the top gainers are Intel +2.4%, Cisco +1.7% and Home Depot +1.0%, while the laggards are Wal-Mart +0.3%, P&G +0.5% and Merck +0.6%. Some caution is likely to creep in ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report and the long Labor Day weekend. Payrolls remain the usual monthly wildcard, especially with the Fed September 17 policy decision 2-weeks away. Note, PIMCO's El-Erian just said on CNBC a September hike would be the right move but at the "wrong time" for the Fed.
11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made new U.S. session highs of 120.39
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $58 B 3-pronged offering
Treasury announced a $58 B 3-pronged offering for the holiday abbreviated week ahead, as projected. The auctions include a $24 B 3-year note for Tuesday, a $21 b ln 10-year re-opening for Wednesday, and a $13 B 30-year reopening for Thursday. Debt managers also announced a $44 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Tuesday, a $4 B cut from this week's size.
10:55 EDTTreasury Action: supply is back in the picture next week
Treasury Action: supply is back in the picture next week with the 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions on tap (details announced at the top of the hour). Analysts expect a $58 B package, including a $24 B 3-year (Tuesday), a $21 b ln 10-year re-opening (Wednesday), and a $13 B 30-year reopening (Thursday). The auctions will be complicated by the disposition of the jobs report tomorrow, the implications for the FOMC, and the market reactions.
10:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 4.4% to dip below 25.0
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending August 28
Gas inventories 94 Bcf build vs. consensus of 93 Bcf build.
10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM-NMI drop in August to 59.0
The U.S. ISM-NMI drop in August to 59.0 trimmed the July surge to 60.3 ten-year high from 56.0 in June and a 55.7 one-year low in May, leaving the measure still-above the 58.8 prior cycle-high last November. The ISM-adjusted measure fell to 58.1 from a 59.7 ten-year high, versus 55.8 in June and a 54.7 one-year low in May. Analysts saw the same 58.1 prior cycle-high in November. The ISM-NMI has shown a larger and more sustained bounce into mid-year than the factory sentiment measures after less of a drop-back during the November-March period, as might be expected if the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power from lower gasoline prices while the depressed factory sector is facing a petro-sector headwind. The mix of a strong ISM-NMI but weak factory sector survey readings allowed the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to fall back to the 51 two-year low seen over the three months ending in May before the temporary June-July bounce to 53, versus 55 over the four months ending in November and a 56 cycle-high last July that was also seen in February and March of 2011.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held steady at higher levels
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar remained largely static
FX Action: The dollar remained largely static after the slight services ISM beat, and remains near session highs versus the euro, though off of best levels against the yen. EUR-USD trades near 1.1110, while USD-JPY is running into resistance under 120.00. Stocks are off their best levels, though still in the green.
10:12 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite data reported
August ISM Non-Mfg Index Composite at 59.0 vs. consensus of 58.5
10:10 EDTU.S. ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 59.0 in August
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI rose to 56.1 for the final August print
U.S. Markit services PMI rose to 56.1 for the final August print, versus July's 55.7 and compared to the 55.2 preliminary August reading. It's a second consecutive gain, reflecting a pick up in activity after the expansion in the service sector had been in slowing mode in April, May, and June. Prices charged fell to 49.4 versus July's 51.8 and is the weakest since November 2010. The composite PMI was steady at 55.7.
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed higher again
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10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has dropped to session lows
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09:49 EDTMarket extends gains in early trading
Stock futures were higher throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a higher open for the broader market. The market will be looking to extend its gains from yesterday and will get help from China, since its market is closed for a holiday. Over the past few weeks the market has reacted to the Chinese trading sessions, many times taking its lead from what occurred the previous night. Tomorrow's monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which will be released prior to the open, will clearly be the highlight of the week and set the tone ahead of the long holiday weekend. In early trading, the Dow is up 108 points, the Nasdaq is up 24 points and the S&P is up 14 points.
09:45 EDTU.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Preview:
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09:40 EDTThe July U.S. trade deficit drop to $41.9 B
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures rallied
Euro$ interest rate futures rallied with the more dovish tone coming out of the ECB, while U.S. data was quickly shrugged off and stocks have settled back down from highs. Fed uber-dove Kocherlakota will be on air later, but long after the close. The December 2015 contract is up a half tick near 99.54 (0.460% implied yield) compared to yesterday's lows of 99.515 (0.485%). The deferreds are 1-5 ticks higher out the back of the curve as the rest of the world continues to tug the Fed away from its normalization objective.
09:14 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion
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