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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 1, 2015
18:09 EDTObama looks to expand tax on U.S. corporations' overseas profits, Bloomberg says
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January 30, 2015
21:07 EDTConsumer Credit to be reported at 15:00
December Consumer Credit will be reported at 15:00 . Current consensus is $15.2B for the month
21:07 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
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21:07 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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21:07 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level to be reported at 08:30
December International Trade Balance Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is $[37.9]B
21:07 EDTProductivity and Costs Unit labor costs to be reported at 08:30
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21:07 EDTProductivity and Costs Nonfarm productivity to be reported at 08:30
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21:07 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite to be reported at 10:00
January ISM Non-Mfg Index Composite will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 56.5
21:07 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
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21:07 EDTPMI Services Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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21:06 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
December Factory Orders will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is [2.2]% for the month
21:06 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
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21:06 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:06 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
January PMI Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 54.0
21:06 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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21:06 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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16:50 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
U.S. Personal Income Preview: December personal income is out on Monday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.5%) headline increase on the month with consumption declining by -0.2% (median -0.3%). This follows respective November figures of 0.4% and 0.6%. Analysts expect the accompanying chain price data to dip as well under the influence of plummeting oil prices, with the price index down -0.3% and the core remaining flat.
16:35 EDTAction Alert: earnings reports remain heavy to start February
Action Alert: earnings reports remain heavy to start February, though many of the heavyweights are out of the way. Retailers and healthcare are prominent during the week. Anadarko Petroleum will be of interest Monday, for obvious reasons. Tuesday there's Disney, Gilead, ADM, Chipotle, LVMH, UPS, Wynn. Wednesday has GM, Fortune Brands, Yum!, Whirlpool, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Ralph Lauren, Under Armour, Southern Co, and Suncor Energy. Thursday reports include GoPro, Yelp, AstraZeneca, Cigna, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Daimler, Dunkin' Brands, YRC Worldwide, Athenahealth, Buffalo Wild Wings, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Expedia, Lions Gate, LinkedIn, and Philip Morris. And on Friday Alcatel, CBOE, Dominion Resources, and Singapore Air will announce.
16:25 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
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16:10 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: It was a Rukeyserian up-and-down day on Wall Street Friday, led first by a disappointing start to Q4 GDP followed by a vicious short-covering rally on crude oil into the close. Yes, there were other events such as a deflationary 0.6% drop in Eurozone inflation, relatively steady U.S. ECI, firmer Chicago PMI and minor revisions to U. Michigan sentiment, but commodity deflation has been the yardstick by which fortunes have been made or broken. Longer-term yields hit fresh cycle or historic lows (in the case of the bond) before bubbling back up from lows with the energy market. Fed dove Bullard stuck with his view of a June-July rate hike and enthused about growth, as did dove Williams despite the sluggish GDP reading.
14:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has responded to the 8% run-up in WTI crude
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14:35 EDTSF Fed's Williams is not concerned by the slowdown in Q4 GDP
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14:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has mounted a nice end of week rally
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has mounted a nice end of week rally, rising over 6% to highs of $47.65, marking the heist levels in over a week. Sources say pre-weekend short covering has been widespread, with ISIS threats to oil infrastructure near Kirkuk in Northern Iraq being cited as the main driver. In addition, the move over Tuesday's $46.54 high reportedly set stop loss buying into motion.
14:16 EDTMarket volatility shows no sign of slowing
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14:00 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: surprise, surprise, surprise! Gomer Pyle's catchphrase pretty much sums up the month of January. First it was the SNB dumping its EUR peg. Then it was the BoC's rate cut. And now it's the FOMC's specific inclusion of international developments as a policy parameter, as well as disappointing GDP (with several other shockers in-between). Not surprisingly this month's unexpected events and what they might mean for global growth and inflation dynamics are worrying investors, especially in light of earnings misses from several bellwethers multinationals. And one more "surprise" too in the Survey. Fed forecasts are finally extending out to mid-2015 and the potential rate hike threshold, and indeed, a couple of forecasters are looking for the FOMC to pull the trigger at the end of Q2. There's key data ahead too, with the Median estimate showing a 230k increase in January nonfarm payrolls.
13:43 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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13:43 EDTImport Prices data reported.
January Import Prices at % for the month.
13:21 EDTChicago Economic Society to hold a meeting
St.Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks on the Federal Reserve Bank policy at the Chicago Economics Society meeting being held in New York on January 30 at 6:30 pm.
12:35 EDTTreasury/euro$s option update: a large put buyer
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY held above its nearly two week low
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12:25 EDTU.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener
U.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener has taken control yet again after the back up in yields into year-end ran smack into the launch of ECB QE in January and snuffed out bearish positioning for the "Great Unwind" for the second year running. Combined with pull lower from European yields, plunge in commodities, macro bet unwinds and duration extensions, powerful forces brought the T-note yield down from 2.35% highs in December to a low of 1.65% - not seen since May of 2013. Frankly, below the 1.50% psych level that puts 1.28% July 2012 post-crisis lows in the cross-hairs if trends continue apace. Of course, if optimism or wage inflation suddenly breaks out stateside, retracements to the 14-day moving average at 1.814% cannot be ruled out, while the 200-day m.a. at 2.388% seems a stretch for now.
12:20 EDTU.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener
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11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen through 1.2700
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11:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
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10:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports were dominated by a surprisingly lean headline Q4 GDP growth clip of 2.6% that included a skewing of growth toward a disturbingly large inventory overbuild that lowers growth prospects for early-2015. Analysts did see a January Chicago PMI climb to a firm 59.4 reading, though factory sentiment firmness since July has likely been fed by the inventory overbuild that will prove temporary, and most factory sector gauges have fallen in January. The Q4 ECI report added to the bad news, with a third consecutive quarter of 0.6%-0.7% gains that signal a tightening labor market that is potentially at odds with Fed "patience," despite oil price declines. Finally, analysts saw a tiny downward revision in January Michigan sentiment that bucked the up-trend in late-January confidence measures, though all the January confidence readings are at high levels due no doubt to plunging gasoline prices. Overall,
10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: some call liquidation
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10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied slightly
FX Action: The dollar rallied slightly after the better Chicago PMI and in-line Michigan sentiment data, taking EUR-USD to 1.1299 lows and lifting USD-JPY over 117.70. Gains are tentative however, with another downdraft in stocks likely to limit USD upside potential. Equities have pared their losses considerably after the data, as yields stay near record lows.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: and back down again, yields sank
Treasury Action: and back down again, yields sank following the final U. Michigan reading, which was above concensus and December levels, but below its preliminary reading. The T-note yield eased back under 1.68% from over 1.69% following the Chicago ISM reading. The curve remains flat with the 2s-10s spread inside +120 bp narrows now.
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rose to 98.1 in the final January print
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 98.1 in the final January print from the University of Michigan survey, compared to December's 93.6 (and versus the 98.2 preliminary January read). It's the highest since January 2004. The current conditions index popped to 109.3 versus the 104.8 last month (108.3 January preliminary), likely a function of the drop in gas prices. The expectations index rose to 91.0 from December's 86.4 (91.6 January preliminary). The 1-year inflation index slid to 2.5% from 2.8% (2.4% January preliminary), and the 5-year index was steady at December's 2.8% pace (2.8% January preliminary).
10:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields bottomed out
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10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied slightly
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI rose to 59.4 in January
U.S. Chicago PMI rose to 59.4 in January after sliding to 58.8 in December (revised up from 58.3). The index is still below the recent high of 64.3 in August, the cycle high of 65.1 from October 2013, and the record high 67.7 from March 2011. But it's still been in expansionary territory for 21 straight months (the last time it was below the 50 expansion-contraction mark was April 2013 when it dropped to 49.5).
09:48 EDTMarket opens lower, turns mixed in early trade after GDP report
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09:45 EDTU. Michigan sentiment preview:
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09:40 EDTThe 0.6% U.S. Q4 ECI rise beat estimates
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09:40 EDTThe 2.6% U.S. Q4 GDP growth clip
The 2.6% U.S. Q4 GDP growth clip undershot estimates due to big downside surprises in the fixed investment, net export, and government components that overwhelmed a huge inventory overshoot that left a whopping $113.1 B accumulation rate. Our Q1 GDP estimate will remain at 2.5% until analysts can review Monday's income report, but the risks now lie to the downside given risk of a hefty Q1 inventory reversal that may ghost the similar pattern seen last year at this time. The average real GDP clip for the expansion rose slightly to 2.4% in Q3 and Q4 from 2.2% in Q2 and 2.1% in Q1, but a similar 2.3% in Q3 and Q4 of 2013. Average nominal GDP growth for the expansion sat at a 3.9% average over the three quarters ending in Q4. Real and nominal GDP growth are still oscillating around a "long-run" rate that is only just sustainable, despite an ongoing output-gap. The Q4 GDP figures depict a quarter with solid "real" consumption growth thanks to plunging oil prices, but with weakness in the remaining spending components alongside a dangerous inventory overbuild.
09:40 EDTChicago PMI preview:
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09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is trading mostly higher
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09:21 EDTBofA/Merrill Italian economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
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09:20 EDTFed's Bullard thinks the markets are too dovish in their policy outlooks
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities stumbled ahead of the open
U.S. equities stumbled ahead of the open after deflationary Eurozone data was followed by weaker than expected headline Q4 GDP that rose just 2.6% vs 5.0% in Q3, while the ECI rose 0.6%. The Nikkei rose 0.39%, but the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.45% lower. The Dow sank 181-points, S&P fell 21-points and NASDAQ is off 24-points, extending losses in pre-market action. Earlier corporate news was mostly positive, after Amazon shares surged 11% after a bumper crop of holiday online sales, while Google's topline growth climbed, though it's bottom-line was dented by online ad demand and FX translation costs. Visa surged 3.7% after strong earnings and a stock split, though Mattel shares sank over 1% after posting consecutive quarterly losses. Gold rebounded a tad to $1,283, while WTI crude is holding above $44 bbl. Up next is a follow-up round of Chicago PMI and U. Michigan updates.
09:00 EDTU.S. GDP grow slowed to a 2.6% pace in Q4
U.S. GDP grow slowed to a 2.6% pace in Q4, much softer than expected, countering Q3's surprisingly robust 5.0% rate. Consumption spending increased a healthy 4.3% versus Q3's 3.2% clip, while fixed investment slid to a 2.3% rate versus 7.7%. Government spending contracted 2.2% versus the hefty 4.4% increase previously. Inventories added a strong $30.9 B (0.82%) after subtracting $2.6 B (-0.03%) in Q3. On the other hand, net exports subtracted $40.1 B (-1.02%) last quarter after adding a big $29.0 B (0.78%) previously. The chain price index dropped to a flat reading in Q4 versus a 1.4% gain in Q3, while the core rate slipped to a 1.1% clip versus 1.4%.
09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD resumed its charge higher
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08:50 EDTU.S. ECI rose 0.6% in Q4
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08:45 EDTU.S. GDP grow slowed to a 2.6% pace in Q4
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially fell
FX Action: The dollar initially fell against the euro and yen following the softer GDP headline, which was offset to a degree by stronger consumer spending. EUR-USD moved from 1.1310 to 1.1335, as USD-JPY dipped from 117.70 to under 117.50. Equity futures took a tumble after the data, as yields fell back as well.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took another stab lower
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to indicate sharply lower open
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08:20 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered Thursday's losses
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08:15 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:10 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
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07:58 EDTDeutsche Bank specialty pharma analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:50 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally with Treasuries outperforming, albeit in relatively light trading volume. Risk-off was the general trade. The 10-year note yield dropped over 3 bps to test 1.70%, just off the 1.699% fresh intraday low for 2015 set on Wednesday. Month-end is helping underpin longer dated maturities around the world. Equities are lower, taking a more defensive posture, in part on growth worries and earnings misses, even as some Eurozone and Japanese data were better than expected. Russia cut rates overnight, following on the heels of the Danish bank's action yesterday. The S&P is on course for its worst month in a year, while Chinese shares posted their worst week in a year. In the U.S. the focus is turning to the Advance Q4 GDP numbers, along with the usually overlooked ECI. Other data today includes consumer sentiment and the Chicago PMI. Earnings announcements slim down today with MasterCard, Eli Lilly, Weyerhaeuser, Ingersoll-Rand, Tyson Foods, Simon Property Group, and Mattel leading the way.
07:48 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on healthcare trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 30 at 10:30 am.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:36 EDTFederal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo to speak at conference
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07:34 EDTNational Press Club to hold a news conference
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07:17 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute to hold a discussion
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch outlines his vision for how America can succeed in today’s global economy by focusing on trade in a discussion being held in Washington, D.C. on January 30 at 9 am. Webcast Link
06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar came under broader pressure
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06:48 EDTEuro zone inflation reaches lowest level since 2009, NY Times says
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06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 30
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05:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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02:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded a narrow path
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02:04 EDTWeek of 2/2 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:04 EDTWeek of 2/11 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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00:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY eased to session lows below 117.80
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January 29, 2015
19:35 EDTJapan's hefty data slate of data reports showed mixed results
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16:47 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:47 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:47 EDTWeek of 2/6 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:47 EDTWeek of 2/8 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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16:47 EDTWeek of 2/7 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
15:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Fed Chair Yellen met with Senate Democrats today
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The second release on January Michigan Sentiment will be out Friday and should reveal an upwardly revised headline of 99.0 (median 98.0) from 98.2 in the month's first release and 93.6 in December. There has been a consistent tendency of upward revisions in the second release of this report over the past year, lending upside risk to tomorrow's release.
14:50 EDTTreasury Action: Q4 Advance GDP and ECI reports will highlight Friday
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14:45 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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14:35 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
U.S. ECI Preview: The employment cost index for Q4 will be released on Friday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.6%) increase on the quarter. This should put the y/y rate of growth at 2.1%, slightly slower than the 2.2% pace set in Q3. Growth in the benefits component has been driving gains lately and analysts expect to see benefits up 0.5% in Q4 with wages and salaries up 0.3%.
14:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed and filled on Thursday after collapsing the day prior with lower stocks and oil. A double dose of intermediate supply totaling some $64 B in 5- and 7-year notes cast a long shadow over the market and provided some cover for the long-squaring. Fresh trend lows in crude near $43 bbl, however, helped keep a lid on yields along with a dive in pending home sales. Jobless claims plummeted during the MLK week, which took some starch out of that release. A third consecutive rate cut by the Danes to -0.5% got the market's attention as well.
14:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has managed to hold near its highs
FX Action: USD-JPY has managed to hold near its highs of 118.48. as Wall Street attempts a recovery, and as yields stabilize to a degree. The pairing has traded inside of 117.20 and 118.80 for over a week now, centered on the 118.00 mark, with more of the same likely in the near term. Risk taking levels will need to pick up if an upside breakout is to occur, though U.S. equity market sentiment remains decidedly unclear for now.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $29 B 7-year auction results were mixed
Treasury's $29 B 7-year auction results were mixed, but lean to the soft side. The note tailed to 1.59% versus 1.585% at the bid deadline, though it's considerably richer than December's 2.125%. There were nearly $72.5 B in bids for a decent 2.50 cover, better than last month's sub-par 2.39 but is still slightly below the 2.55 average. Indirect bidders accepted 56.1%, in line with the solid 56.5% from December and the 46.5% average. Direct bidders took 14.9%, more than double the 5.9% last month, while primary dealers were awarded a moderate 29.0% versus 37.6% previously. Supply is now out of the way for a week, and month-end tomorrow can help the market digest this week's offerings.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields drifted lower
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12:50 EDTU.S. ISM posted annual revisions that included mostly downward adjustments
U.S. ISM posted annual revisions that included mostly downward adjustments to recent manufacturing and services indexes. The December manufacturing number was nudged down to 55.1 from 55.5, with prior months knocked down too. The services index for December was bumped up slightly to 56.5 from 56.2, but November was revised down to 58.8 from 59.3, with October now at 56.9 from 57.1. The revisions shouldn't significantly alter outlooks on the two sectors, but could temper upward trajectory in the manufacturing trajectory.
12:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the issue calendar is moderate today
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12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish positioning
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12:05 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD is down flirting with the 1.1300 level
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11:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields stalled in the belly
Treasury Action: yields stalled in the belly of the curve after the pretty solid 5-year auction results, with the current 5-year yield back under 1.28% after holding under 1.29% into the sale, after backing up from 1.24% lows in Asia compared to the 1.288% award rate on the new notes. Stocks remain underwater, but at the shallow end of the pool for now.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year auction was solid
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD soared to 1.2650
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $52 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $25.0 B
11:09 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:09 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $26.0 B
10:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has traded on the $43 handle
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending January 23
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10:30 EDTTreasury auction outlooks: Treasury is selling 5- and 7-year notes
Treasury auction outlooks: Treasury is selling 5- and 7-year notes, with the former rescheduled from Wednesday due to the snowstorm. The bid deadline for the 5-year was moved up to 11:30 ET. The unusual double-up could create some indigestion as the market will have to take down $64 B in notes today, especially following the big yield drop yesterday. However, the bond-friendly FOMC statement yesterday where the Fed hinted it might not hike rates by mid-year could be supportive, along with ongoing weakness in inflation expectations. The notes are cheapening a bit this morning, but so far set up has been poor and that may limit demand. The wi 5-year rate is up over 3 bps to 1.29%, while the wi 7-year is up 3 bps to 1.58%. Yet those would still be the richest rates since May 2013. The yield premium to core sovereigns overseas should also be supportive. Note the German 5-year trades at -0.033%, with the 7-year at 0.072%. Month-end and the 0.09 year duration extension should be marginally beneficial for the longer note.
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased back from highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales dropped 3.7% to 100.7 in December
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10:05 EDTU.S. equities surrendered their opening gains
U.S. equities surrendered their opening gains and have turned lower, even as Europe turned back into the green and oil prices have rebounded. That's driven the VIX equity volatility index back up to session and 1-week highs over 20.73 into the NAR pending home sales index release.
10:02 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold a webcast
Federal Reserve Governor Powell and Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City President George will share views on the Federal Reserve's vision for the future U.S. payment system and plans for collaborating with stakeholders to achieve shared goals in a webcast being held on January 29 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:45 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales index preview:
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09:43 EDTMarket mixed despite solid jobless claims data
Stock futures firmed following the weekly jobless claims, which represented the lowest initial claims during the present recovery cycle. The futures action led to a slightly higher open for the broader market, which is trying to break its current downtrend and reverse the last two days of major sell-offs. However, in early trading the major averages have already turned mixed, with the Dow the only equity index managing to stay in the green. About 15 minutes into the session, the Dow is up 13 points, the Nasdaq is down 19 points and the S&P is down 2 points.
09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is trading over 1.2550
FX Action: USD-CAD is trading over 1.2550, after making new highs of 1.2562 in London dealings earlier. As oil sticks close to its trend low, and the market ponders further BoC rate cuts, the CAD looks set to remain under pressure. Light buy stops are noted at 1.2570, with offers seen in place ahead of 1.2600. Support at 1.2500.
09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: early bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: early bullish positioning may be helping keep a floor under the 10-year futures after a purchase of 7k in March 133 calls was spotted, along with a 3k purchase of April 132.5/133 call spreads and 5k in March 133/134 call spreads. March 10s are 6.5-ticks lower near 130-085 compared to their 130-17 to 130-04 range.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities snapped higher
U.S. equities snapped higher in the wake of the 43k plunge in jobless claims, reversing some of their earnings-, oil- and Fed-induced collapse on Wednesday, though the 15-year low in the claims data was likely distorted by the MLK holiday week, which the BLS acknowledged. The Dow is 68-points firmer, S&P gained 6-points and NASDAQ is up 7-points ahead of the opening bell, well below overnight highs. This followed declines in Europe and Asia, with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.4% lower, while Japan's Nikkei sank 1.06% and the Shanghai Comp was 1.3% lower. Corporate news featured a 3% rise in McDonald's after it confirmed a new CEO, while Alibaba sank 7.5% after missing forecasts, which pulled down Yahoo too after it announced plans to divest in its stake this week. Qualcomm sank 7% after slashing profit forecasts as well, but Coach and Ford gained after posting better than expected profits. Up next is the NAR pending home sales report.
08:55 EDTThe 43k plunge in U.S. initial claims to a 265k new cycle-low
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields nudged higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims plunged 43k to 265k in the week ended January 24
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08:34 EDTFutures firm ahead of market open
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded a narrow range
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower in light trading
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mostly higher in London trade, making marginal versus the yen, pound and dollar bloc, while easing slightly against the euro. USD-CAD is on new nearly six-year highs, while AUD-USD posted five-plus year lows, and kiwi a four-year low. USD-JPY has moved above 118 on equity market recovery, as EUR-USD hovers over 1.1300, with Greece issues likely to keep pressure on the euro. The U.S. calendar reveals weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EST, and December pending home sales at 10:00 EST.
07:33 EDTThe SEC to hold a closed commission meeting
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07:32 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:24 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on January 29 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
07:22 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee to hold a hearing
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07:17 EDTFutures suggest a market bounce
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07:14 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
A to A+ Corporate Day: Healthcare, Insurance and Brokers Conference is being held in Shenzhen, China on January 29.
07:13 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a forum
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07:12 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond holds a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The USD traded firmer
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The USD traded firmer
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05:56 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 29
Globex S&P futures are recently up 6.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.06%, DAX down 0.12%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $44.61, natural gas up 2.60%, gold at $1275 an ounce, copper down 1.23%.
05:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains on a broadly sideways path
FX Action: USD-JPY remains on a broadly sideways path, anchored on 118.00, which has roughly been the mid-point of trade for most of January so far. Analysts expect USD-JPY will be biased higher in the bigger picture as 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well in Japan. A Bloomberg survey last week found 26 of 33 of economists forecasting new BoJ monetary expansion by the end of October. The pronounced decline in EUR-JPY will have also strengthen the yen in trade-weighted terms, which is another factor that some analysts (including a research piece by Barclays this week) will also push the BoJ toward a new easing. USD-JPY support is at 117.25, resistance at 118.83-87 and 119.00.
02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded lower in the wake of the FOMC
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January 28, 2015
20:25 EDTJapan retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in December
Japan retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in December, undershooting projections for a modest increase after the revised 0.2% drop in November (was -0.3%). Retail sales grew 0.2% y/y, also well short of projections after the revised 0.5% gain in November (was +0.4%). Sales at large retailers improved just 0.1% y/y after the revised 1.1% gain in November (was +1.2%), also failing to live up to expectations. The report highlights the ongoing challenge for the BoJ in returning self sustaining growth to Japan. USD-JPY has nudged lower to 117.7 from 117.79 before the data.
16:45 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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16:20 EDTFOMC Wary of Global Trends
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16:03 EDTWeek of 2/6 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:55 EDTMore from the FOMC: one key phrase
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14:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has decisively taken out the 1.2500 level
FX Action: USD-CAD has decisively taken out the 1.2500 level, rallying to a 1.2516 peak so far. The move comes in concert with WTI crude dipping to fresh trend lows just above $44.00. Between energy/commodity prices, a dovish BoC, and a generally downbeat Canadian economic outlook, USD-CAD appears set to move higher still.
14:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude touch fresh trend lows
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated lower with the FOMC statement
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar zigged and zagged
FX Action: The dollar zigged and zagged after the FOMC announcement, though appears to be settling in at modestly higher levels. EUR-USD has traded under 1.1320 from 1.1370 highs, as USD-JPY ranged between 117.60 and 117.98, before stabilizing 117.65. Equities moved initially higher, though have eased off their best level, while yields have inched lower. Overall, not a lot of reaction, following a nearly unchanged statement.
14:18 EDTGross sees Fed rate increase coming around June
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14:18 EDTFed still plans to exercise patience when determining rate hike
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14:16 EDTGross sees Fed raising funds rate by 25 bps 'some time' this year
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14:09 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 13:00
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14:09 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate data reported
FOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate at 0 to 0.25% vs. consensus of 0 to 0.25%
14:09 EDTWeek of 2/6 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:02 EDTFed says can be 'patient' in beginning to normalize policy
The Federal Reserve said in today's statement, "Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated."
14:00 EDTFOMC keeps 'patient' language regarding normalized rates
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $26 B 2-year auction was very well received
Treasury's $26 B 2-year auction was very well received. As expected, the offering was underpinned by overseas accounts. And the results also suggest no real fear of the Fed. The note stopped just through at 0.540% versus 0.545% at the bid deadline (which is much richer than December's 0.703% stop). There were over $97.2 B in bids for a 3.74 cover. Though aided a bit but the $1 B cut in size, the cover is nevertheless much better than the 3.21 last month and a 3.39 average. In fact it's the highest since December 2013. Indirect bidders were awarded 48.6% (the highest since February 2010), above the 35.7% previously and the 31.8% average. Direct bidders accepted 8.8%, down from the prior 14.5%, while primary dealers took 42.6% versus 49.8% in December.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied mid-range
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12:45 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
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12:05 EDTU.S. equities surrendered their opening bounce
U.S. equities surrendered their opening bounce and the blue chips are trading back in the red, while only the Apple-infused NASDAQ is still holding its head above water. The quick roll-back in Greek reforms and re-nationalization of several government services and restoration pensions, etc., has knocked Athens down over 12% now and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.65% lower, with Italy and Spain down 1.0% and 1.5% respectively as peripheral debt comes back under scrutiny. Meanwhile, Greek 5-year credit default swaps are flagging a 75% risk of default. Moreover, crude oil prices have resumed their slump in the wake of EIA and API inventory builds, with WTI crude 2.2% lower to $45.2 bbl, weighing on the energy sector.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $15 B 2-year FRN was well received
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11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more upside positioning
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11:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar is on the decline
FX Action: The dollar is on the decline, following Wall Street lower, as stocks give up their early gains. EUR-USD is back over 1.1340 after finding support into 1.1300 earlier, while USD-JPY eases under 117.70, after stalling into the 118.00 level. Follow through will likely be limited into this afternoon's FOMC announcement.
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell briefly to $44.53
Energy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell briefly to $44.53 from $44.70, before rallying to $45.10 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 8.9 M bbl rise in crude stocks. This was less than the huge 12.7 M bbl increase reported by API on Tuesday. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 M bbls actually fell 2.6 M bbls, while distillate stocks were down 3.9 M bbls, versus expectations for a 1.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 88.0% from 85.5%.
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of January 23
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10:30 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
Treasury 2-year auction outlook: the note sale, and the 2-year FRN, were delayed until today due to the storm "Juno." The coupon offering is likely to be lackluster as the bid deadline is an hour before the FOMC announcement, and given various market crosscurrents. Though the markets are not looking for any major changes in the policy statement, many potential buyers may sit on their hands, just in case the FOMC hints a June hike is still in the cards. The market hasn't been able to build in a concession with the wi yield slightly lower at 0.54%, and an award rate there would be one of the richest since June. That may put off buyers too, as could the bias toward curve flatteners. There is also a $15 B 2-year FRN on which to bid at 11:30 ET. However, on the plus side, even a 0.555% rate looks attractive versus Germany's equivalent at -0.162% and Japan's at -0.006%. And geopolitical risks may elicit a bid. The December note stopped at 0.703% and garnered a sub-par 3.21 cover and a better than average 35.7% indirect bid. Direct bidders accepted 14.5% while primary dealers took 49.8%.
10:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on session lows of $44.81
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is on session lows of $44.81, with repositioning reportedly under way ahead of the 10:30 EST EIA inventory data. Tuesday's API data revealed a huge 12.7 M bbl stock build, and the market currently appears to be setting up for a larger than expected EIA reported inventory build. The $44.20 level provides initial support, though under $44.19, which was the January 13 trend low, another wave of selling can be expected.
10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in front of the Fed
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning in front of the Fed has been the main theme, as there was a bullish buyer of 7.5k in March 132-00 calls on 10-year futures and also a bearish purchase of 10k in March 128/129 put spreads. March 10s are 3.5-ticks firmer near 129-245 compared to a 129-295 to 129-16 session range.
09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back up near 1.2450
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09:38 EDTEarnings help lift market at open
Stock futures improved during the pre-market trading session, thanks in part to better than expected earnings reports from Boeing (BA). The futures action led to a positive open for the broader market, with Boeing's post-earnings gain fueling the Dow and Apple (AAPL) powering the Nasdaq higher. The timing of the earnings beats for those two big names could not have been better given yesterday’s sell-off following the earnings disappointments from a number of other corporate giants. Investors will now be turning their attention to the Fed’s rate announcement, due out this afternoon at 2:00 pm ET. In early trading, the Dow is up 45 points, the Nasdaq is up 43 points and the S&P is up 9 points.
09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC resumed its meeting
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09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: pre-FOMC flows
Euro$ interest rate options: pre-FOMC flows are said to include a bearish purchase of 2.5k in December 2015 88/90/92/93 put condors and an added purchase of 1.8k in Front December 88/90/92/93 put condor and an 88/90 put spread. Heading towards the FOMC decision, underlying rate futures are quite mixed, with the front-end in shallow negative territory and the back with shallow positive gains.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are mostly firmer on Apple's earnings
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08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell to $45.14
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08:15 EDTThe U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission holds a hearing
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar largely consolidated Tuesday's moves, as positions were pared into this afternoon's FOMC policy announcement. EUR-USD steadied in the mid 1.13's, as USD-JPY traded either side of 118.00. USD-CAD found support on weaker oil prices, though cable maintained its recent bid, holding near 1.5200. Equity futures indicate a firmer Wall Street open, helped by positive earnings reports from Apple, yahoo and Boeing. Yields are a touch softer. The calendar is bare but for weekly EIA petroleum inventory at 10:30 EST, and of course the FOMC announcement at 14:00 EST.
07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.2%
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07:36 EDTSenate Budget Committee to hold a hearing
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher, having pared overnight losses. The 10-year yield traded narrowly around 1.80%. European bonds are trying to rebound too, but are still slightly underwater, while Asian bonds closed in the red. Note that Greek yields have soared amid worries over the new government. Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem, who is set to meet Tsirpas Thursday, said that ongoing support from Europe requires efforts from Greece and "the message 'analysts want your support but not your conditions' won't fly." European bourses are mostly lower with U.S. shares mixed, despite blowout earnings news from Apple. Market focus is now turning to the FOMC announcement at 14:00 ET (there is no press conference). The Fed is widely expected to maintain its "patient" approach to rate normalization. Also, the bond market will have to bid on $26 B in 2-year notes and $15 B in 2-year FRNs before the policy announcement (the auctions were moved from Tuesday due to storm "Juno"). The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.2% for the January 23 week. The only other data today includes weekly oil inventories. Earnings reports today include Facebook, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Wynn Resorts.
07:15 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:11 EDTMaxim to hold a conference
Drug Pricing & Reimbursement Conference is being held in New York on January 28.
06:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-softer
FX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-softer into the Fed announcement. EUR-USD oscillated between 1.1332 and 1.1382. The market ignored an above-forecast German consumer confidence reading today, and the rebound tone of yesterday is absent today, though there seems to be a feeling that the euro has managed to build a toehold after making an 11-year low at 1.1098 on Monday. USD-JPY dipped below 117.70 in Europe after oscillating in a narrow range around 118.00 during Tokyo trade. Selling in EUR-JPY drove the move (EUR-USD was concomitantly lower), with the cross down 95 pips after logging a new rebound high of 134.35. AUD-USD made a five-day peak of 0.8025 after Australian Q4 CPI data. Elsewhere, the SGD dove sharply after Singapore's MAS unexpectedly cut the slope of monetary policy band.
06:36 EDTChinese growth target to be lowest in 11 years, Reuters says
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06:17 EDTS&P lowers Atlantic City, NJ GO debt rating to BB from BBB+
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services yesterday lowered its general obligation rating on Atlantic City, NJ, four notches to 'BB' from 'BBB+' and placed it on CreditWatch with negative implications. The downgrade reflects S&P's view of the state's recent appointment, by executive order, of an Emergency Manager and Emergency Manager Advisor within the state's Department of Community Affairs, Division of Local Governments. The order requires the Emergency Manager to prepare and recommend a plan, within 60 days, to place Atlantic City's finances in stable condition and provides the explicit authority to use any and all lawful means, including restructuring the city's operations and adjusting its debts to achieve that aim. "The implementation of an Emergency Manager signals to Standard & Poor's that the state does not view the city as capable of resolving its challenges without outside intervention; in our view, third-party intervention is often more draconian than the actions taken to date and has a greater likelihood of being detrimental to bondholders," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lindsay Wilhelm. The CreditWatch placement reflects S&P's expectation that the Emergency Manager's plan, which is due within the next 60 days, should provide additional clarity on the path that the city and state might pursue to stabilize the city's finances and it will monitor the impact that the plan may have on the city's bonded debt.
06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 28
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.15%, DAX down 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $45.29, natural gas down 2.75%, gold at $1288 an ounce, copper up.81%.
05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 28
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.15%, DAX down 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $45.29, natural gas down 2.75%, gold at $1288 an ounce, copper up.81%.
05:49 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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04:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY dipped below 117.70
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The AUD and SGD were the main shows in town
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January 27, 2015
17:10 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:17 EDTWeek of 2/7 Redbook to be released at 08:55
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The earnings bubble was burst on a number of company reports by Tuesday as the plunge in energy prices and dollar rally last year finally caught up with several multi-nationals. Combined with heaviness in Europe and uncertainty over Greek leadership choices, along with a poor run of durable goods data, this proved toxic for Wall Street as it dug out of its snow storm. The surge in consumer confidence and new home sales provided some solace, but was largely overlooked. Looming Apple earnings after the close proved a greater inducement to short-covering on stocks that dictated a similar pattern on Treasury yields even as the FOMC began its debate of the state of the economic union.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields couldn't get enough traction
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY pulled up just short of the 118.00 mark
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13:10 EDTU.S. equities rounded off the bottom with an Apple bounce
U.S. equities rounded off the bottom with an Apple bounce in their eyes ahead of its earnings after the close. This followed getting sucked lower with the European close as the Euro Stoxx 50 finished 1.22% lower and Athens 5.0% lower (above session lows). NASDAQ has cut losses to -1.5%. Apple is still down 1.5% near $111.32, but closer to session highs of $112.48 than lows of $109.75. A miss by the tech gadget firm would be devastating to weakened stocks, but that's not expected to be the case as strong demand for the higher margin iPhone 6 series, which should bolster its earnings, though dollar strength could be a catch here too especially for global sales. Other highlights could be on iPad vs Mac sales, the roll-out of Apple Pay and the Apple watch could all factor in. Median estimates are for $53.7 B in revenue vs $45.7 B for the year-ago quarter and forward guidance will of course be key. The bulk of the Dow remains in the red, however, after earnings and durables misses, with the deepest holes dug by Microsoft -8.8%, Caterpillar -7.8% and Intel -4.3%. Note, risk proxy USD-JPY is rebounding as well.
12:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are still in rally mode
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11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded through sell-stops at 1.2390
FX Action: USD-CAD traded through sell-stops at 1.2390, on its way to 1.2380 lows. The pairing has returned over the 1.2400 mark, though with WTI oil prices up over $1 from overnight lows, and approaching $46.00, USD-CAD sellers have returned over the figure. The overnight move to 1.2500 prompted a good amount of position squaring, and given the more than 100 point retracement, analysts look for the pairing to consolidate on either side of 1.2400 near term.
11:25 EDTGundlach of Doubleline scoffed at Fed hiking rates
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11:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling has been reported in the latest wave of activity on the short-dated rate contracts, including the sale of 17k in June 2015 93/93/96 put butterflies and sale of 5k in Short March 86/88 put spreads. Though the underlying deferred contracts are still as much as 9-ticks firmer thanks to the slump in stocks, sources believe this is mostly pre-FOMC position unwinding.
11:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence January surge to a cycle-high 102.9
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10:35 EDTThe 11.6% U.S. new home sales pop
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: a wild ride for the 30-year
Treasury Action: a wild ride for the 30-year culminated in a run to a historic low yield of 2.3289% before bubbling back up over 2.34%, well off session highs of 2.4095%. In the melee after the damp durables print the cash bond yield perversely shot to that session high near 2.41% before plunging back down to 2.34% again, a move rumored to be driven by some HFT (high-frequency) crew or other fast-money type. It especially stood out as there was no parallel move on the 10-year yield at all, just a big downbar on the yield from the 1.80% area to 1.76% at the time, lending credence to the conspiracy theory.
10:30 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI rose to 54.0 in January
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC began its meeting at 10:00 ET.
Fed Policy Outlook: FOMC began its meeting at 10:00 ET. It is not expected to make major changes in its policy statement tomorrow. The Fed made the shift in its December announcement away from "considerable time" toward a "patient" approach in terms of its normalization path and is widely expected to retain that posture. Analysts don't expect the Fed to tip its hand yet on the timing of rate liftoff. Indeed, if the path is truly data dependent, policymakers can't predetermine that outcome, though many have already indicated their best guess is around mid-2015 given the improvement in the economy and labor market. However, the stronger dollar, declining oil prices, deceleration in price pressures, falling inflation expectations, and minimal wage pressures suggest the first rate hike could be delayed into the second half of 2015, as analysts suspect, if not 2016. Note that retaining the "patient" characterization would take an April rate hike off the table (Yellen defined patient as meaning no tightening for the next two meetings.
10:30 EDTU.S. new home sales rebounded a hefty 11.6% to 481k in December
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10:25 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index dipped to 6 in January
U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index dipped to 6 in January from 7 in December, having ranged in 2014 from -5 (March) to 20 (October). The employment component dropped to 5 from 13, but with the workweek doubling to 8 from 4. Wages fell to 3 versus 8. New order volume was flat at 4. The annualized percent change in prices paid dropped to 0.7% from 1.26%. The 6-month shipment index dipped to 30 compared to 38 in December, with employment falling to 18 versus 23, new orders at 29 from 34, with the annualized percent change in prices paid sliding to 1.17% from 1.46%.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields based above lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. consumer confidence jumped to 102.9 in January
U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 102.9 in January from an upwardly revised 93.1 in December (was 92.6). This is the best read since August 2007, and was helped by the gains on Wall Street and lower gas prices. The present situations component surged to 112.6 from 99.9 (revised from 98.6). The expectations component rose to 96.4 from 88.5. The labor market differential improved significantly, basically halved to -5.2 from -10.6 (revised from -10.6).
10:05 EDTU.S. new home sales preview:
U.S. new home sales preview: new home sales are expected to increase 1.6% to a 445k unit pace in December (median 450 M) from 438k in November. Forecast risk is upward, given the improvement in the December starts. preview.
10:00 EDTU.S. consumer confidence preview:
U.S. consumer confidence preview: January Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 97.0 (median 95.1) from 92.6 in December, as sinking gasoline prices, falling rates and rising wealth boost confidence. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk is upward, given firm figures in the first Michigan release. preview.
09:56 EDTMarket down sharply after Microsoft, Caterpillar, durable goods disappoint
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services flash PMI preview:
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09:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: pre-FOMC jockeying
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09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD's 1.2500 print
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09:25 EDTNYSE has invoke "Rule 48" ahead of the open
NYSE has invoke "Rule 48" ahead of the open which provides for "exemptive relief" in the event of extreme market volatility conditions, which allows for relief of suspension of trade temporarily following a market-wide halt. The winter storm could provide some more cover, though it is the earnings blizzard that is causing the chop.
09:20 EDTFed hike forecasts are being revised
Fed hike forecasts are being revised in the wake of this recent round of disappointing earnings and data misses. Among the first is Morgan Stanley, which has reportedly deferred its call to March of 2016 from January 2016. As the energy price and dollar typhoon continues to wrack the markets, others are expected to follow suit and Goldman is expected to not be far behind, according to sources.
09:15 EDTU.S. Case Shiller November 20-city home price index slid 0.22% to 172.94
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. durables report sharply underperformed
The U.S. durables report sharply underperformed, both via big December declines across the orders and equipment data, with and without transportation or defense, and big downward November revisions that left three months of notable underperformance for orders and equipment. Shipments and inventories slightly beat assumptions after restrained factory data in the payroll and industrial production reports, though the data were bad news for the GDP growth outlook on net. Analysts still expect 3.5% Q4 GDP growth, but with a -1% (was +1%) figure for the equipment component. Inventories are poised to add $15 B to Q4 GDP growth, after a $2.6 B subtraction in Q3 that left an already-elevated $82.2 B accumulation rate. Our Q1 GDP estimate remains at 2.5%, though today's data signal downside risk. Analysts expect a flat December factory and overall inventory figure, given today's 0.5% factory durable inventory rise. Analysts assume a 2.2% December factory orders drop with a flat factory shipments figure, given an assumed 1.0% price-led decline for nondurable shipments and orders.
09:12 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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09:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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09:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar's ongoing strength
FX Action: The dollar's ongoing strength, along with sagging commodity prices have begun to show up on corporate income statements. Earnings reports from Proctor and Gamble, Pfizer, and Caterpillar this morning all missed street expectations, with the strong dollar, and soft commodity prices mentioned as major reasons for profit slippage. In addition, while Microsoft and 3M profits met earnings expectations, these companies downgraded guidance for the remainder of the year, due to dollar strength. It is only January, but based on the heavily negative market reaction seen on Wall Street this morning, red flags are being raised concerning equity market performance in the coming months.
08:58 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 1/24 Redbook Store Sales up 3.2% for the year
08:55 EDTU.S. S&P Case Shiller home prices preview:
U.S. S&P Case Shiller home prices preview: home prices are forecast to 0.7% in November (median 0.6%) for the 20-cities index seasonally adjusted from 0.8% in October or fall 0.25% non-seasonally adjusted. For more, see our home prices comparison.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped further
FX Action: The dollar slipped further following the terrible durables report, taking EUR-USD toward 1.1340 from 1.1310, and USD-JPY to intra day lows of 117.55 from 117.75. Equity futures, already in the tank from numerous earnings misses earlier, have dropped even further, indicating nearly a 300 point DJIA negative open. Yields have slid as well, with the 10-year near 1.76%.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities have been routed
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08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders collapsed 3.4% in December
U.S. durable goods orders collapsed 3.4% in December after a downwardly revised 2.1% November decline (revised from -0.9%). Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.8% after a 1.3% drop previously (revised from -0.4%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.6% following a 0.6% November slide (revised from unchanged). Data are much weaker than expected and will extend declines in equities.
08:37 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:15 EDTU.S. durable goods preview:
U.S. durable goods preview: durable goods orders are expected to grow 1.0% in December (median 0.4%) vs -0.9%, with shipments up 0.5% (median 0.4%). Inventories are expected to grow by 0.4% in December, which would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 from last month. Forecast risk is downward, however, as there was a drop in Boeing orders in December and vehicle assemblies in December are expected to slow slightly, to 11.9 M from 12.0 M. preview for more.
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales index fell 0.6% in the week ended January 24
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08:06 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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08:05 EDTU.S. durable goods and new home sales reports
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
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07:56 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
Latin America Investment Conference is being held in Sao Paulo, Brazil on January 27-29.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher, in contrast to small losses in most overseas bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield held narrowly around the 1.20% level. Stocks are weaker and are extending declines of about 1% amid Greek worries and earnings misses from Pfizer, Caterpillar and others. U.K. Q4 GDP growth slowed more than expected to a 0.5% pace, and lending approvals fell to a new cycle low. The Nikkei was the major exception as it posted a 1.7% gain on the weaker yen. Meanwhile, storm "Juno" didn't quite pack the punch expected and travel bans around NYC have been lifted. The FOMC is scheduled to begin its 2-day meeting today, and release its policy statement on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. Meanwhile, the Treasury has rescheduled the 2-year note and 2-year FRN offerings to Wednesday. Today's data calendar is heavy and includes December durable goods orders, January consumer confidence, December new home sales, the January flash Markit services PMI, the November Case Shiller home price index, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. There are also plenty more earnings reports today, including Apple, Yahoo, EA, VMware, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Procter & Gamble, du Pont, AT&T, American Airlines, Coach, and Ethan Allen.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:00 EDTChinese PM says economic growth to stay medium to high, China Daily says
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06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has been pushed back under 1.1300
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 27
Globex S&P futures are recently down 8.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.72%, DAX up 0.44%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $45.19, natural gas up 3.33%, gold at $1279 an ounce, copper down 1.09%.
05:52 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar and main currencies were relative steady
FX Update: The dollar and main currencies were relative steady today, settling after yesterday's EUR-JPY centred whipsaw. EUR-USD traded in the low-to-mid 1.12s, holding comfortably above the 1.1098 low that was seen during the early hours of Asian trade on Monday. The speculative market had gotten itself excessive short of euros during the lead up to and after the ECB QE announcement last week. Analysts still expect the euro will work its way toward parity against the dollar once the quant program kicks in March. SNB's Danthine is interviewed in the Tribune de Genev today, where he confirmed that the prospect of ECB bond buying was seen as a key risk factor when deciding to abandon the franc cap. He still sees the franc as overvalued, but didn't mention what would be an appropriate level, and said that the SNB was still prepared to intervene. USD-JPY dipped back under 118.00, a level which has developed as something of an anchor point in recent weeks. AUD-USD managed to breach above its Monday high in making 0.7948, which is 90 pips up on yesterday's four-year low, before settling around 0.7930.
January 26, 2015
23:40 EDTJapan's services PPI held steady at a 3.6% y/y pace in December
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22:50 EDTPhilippine trade surplus hit $272 M in November
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18:33 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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18:33 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
18:33 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTTreasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries continue to underperform
Treasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries continue to underperform in a curve flattening trade as both the upcoming FOMC decision and supply weigh. Additionally, the very tame inflation outlook and the ECB QE program should continue to underpin the long end. The wi 2-year has cheapened 3 bps today to 0.555%, with the wi 5-year note at 1.365%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is up on 2 bps to 1.82%, though it's traded under 1.80% at times today. The result on the 2s-10s spread has seen the gap narrow to 127 bps versus a 130 bps (using the benchmark 2-year) last week. Any indication from the FOMC that they are still on course for a mid-year rate hike will further compress this spread.
13:51 EDTEurozone leaders reject Greek debt relief demands, Financial Times reports
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13:30 EDTMarket having lackluster session ahead of winter storm
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13:20 EDTS&P lowers Russia foreign currency to BB+ from BBB-; Outlook negative
13:10 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction results were ok
Treasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction results were ok, especially considering the quick rescheduling of this sale from Tuesday due to the impending snowstorm on the East Coast. The offering stopped at 0.02%, right on the screws, though it's a little cheaper than the 0.01% handles seen over the last 4 auctions. Bids totaled $112.3 B for a 3.78 cover, up a bit from 3.74 last week, but in line with the 3.72 average. Indirect bidders took 19.0%, a bit better than the prior 17.1% but off the 22.3% average.
12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a sizable package
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12:40 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on session highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is on session highs, touching $46.35, after finding a floor at $44.30 in early Asia last night. The better than $2 bounce has been attributed to the failure to break below the January 13 low of $44.19, which brought short covering to bear. RBOB gasoline futures meanwhile, are off their highs, trading at $1.34/gallon, and down from highs over 1.3550.
12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has held the 118.00 level
FX Action: USD-JPY has held the 118.00 level through the session, after climbing from 117.26 Asian session lows. Buying overnight was partially attributed to a Bloomberg TV interview with BoJ governor Kuroda from Davos, Switzerland on Friday, where speculation emerged that the Bank could shift its stimulus focus away from JGB's and toward purchasing regional bonds, shares, or even derivatives. If the FX market gets a whiff of new stimulus measures, USD-JPY will trade higher.
11:50 EDTIBM denied it is planning massive layoffs
IBM denied it is planning massive layoffs in a move outlined in a Forbes article earlier, thought to be behind some of the opening weakness in stocks. IBM has been 1.5-2.0% higher on the day, so it appears investors weren't giving it too much credence after all. That said, IBM has been struggling with its earnings and reducing forecasts, in addition to slashing stock buy-backs, as cloud computing and data analytics revenues came up shy of expectations. IBM is trading near $158.26 compared to its $150.50-199.21 52-week range. In its last report it warned that several thousand employees could be impacted. The major stock indices are still in shallow negative territory.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:10 EDTU.S. Treasury shifted its auction schedule due to the storm:
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10:50 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 8.5 points to -4.4 in January
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 8.5 points to -4.4 in January after tumbling 5.9 points to 4.1 in December. It's the first time in 20 months that the index is below zero as it looks as though the big drop in oil prices is weighing significantly on the regional outlook. The index was as high as 12.7 in July (which was the best since September 2013). The employment component dipped to 9.0 from 9.2, though it's still close to the 2 year average. It was 13.1 in June. The workweek edged down to -0.1 from 0.7. Wage dropped to 19.1 from 25.1. New orders declined to -7.7 versus 2.7. Prices collapsed with the paid index falling to -1.7 from 6.9 with prices received at -6.7 from 4.2. The 6-month activity index was crushed, falling to -6.4 from 13.9, with employment at 15.3 from 20.2, prices paid at 10.1 from 12.2, and capital expenditures at 3.0 versus 19.4.
10:35 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index data reported
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10:30 EDTU.S. equities rolled back over after the open
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at trend highs
FX Action: USD-CAD topped out at trend highs of 1.2476 in London dealings, before trading a narrow range into the North American open. The pairing has eased back into 1.2415, with selling coming on the back of better than a $1 rally in WTI crude prices. Good domestic bidding interest reported into the 1.2400 level, and a fading Wall Street however, has seen USD-CAD lifted back over 1.2440.
09:56 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 05:00
09:56 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 12:45
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09:56 EDT St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 10:00
09:56 EDT St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 19:00
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09:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 12:45
09:56 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 02:45
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09:35 EDTMarket opens week lower after Greek vote, ahead of earnings deluge
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09:23 EDTFederal Reserve Board of Governors holds a meeting
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: selling of volatility at the long-end
Treasury Option Action: selling of volatility at the long-end has been in vogue to start the week, according to sources. This has sent implied volatility on March 10s from 6.60% on Friday to 6.40% currently. But there was also a 3k purchase of March 129.5 straddles (vol). On bond futures there was a bearish sale of 5k in March 154/155 call spreads too. March 10-year futures are 5-ticks lower near 129-165 compared to their 130-16 to 129-16 range on Globex.
09:00 EDTEuro interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: upcoming supply could keep a bearish tone in Treasuries
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities are trading lower
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude made two-week low of $44.30
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTFutures lower to begin the week
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06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply
FX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply after plumbing an 11-year low at 1.1098 in Asia. The move stalled in the 1.1250-62 region, where renewed selling interest reappeared, despite an above-forecast German Ifo release. A notable short squeeze in EUR-JPY, which interbank and speculative accounts viewed as being ripe for after hefty losses in recent days, had encouraged a similar play in EUR-USD. USD-JPY rebounded over a big figure from the Tokyo low at 117.26, logging a high of 118.39 during the London AM. Greek stocks and bonds are down following the weekend's election, though stocks elsewhere in Europe are higher and contagion remains largely absent in bond markets. USD-CAD clocked a new trend high at 1.2475, concomitantly with a fresh drop in oil prices.
06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD rebounded sharply
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06:38 EDTGreek anti-austerity leader to form government, Reuters says
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06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 26
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04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY extended to a high of 118.34
FX Action: USD-JPY extended to a high of 118.34, which is up by over a big figure from the Tokyo low at 117.26. A strong rebound in EUR-JPY after the cross came within 15 pips of the 130.0 level has driven the yen broadly lower. Interbank and speculative accounts have been driving EUR-JPY higher, which was ripe for a short squeeze after hefty losses in recent days. Stops added fuel. USD-JPY itself triggered a wave of stop buying through 118.00-10. Analysts expect USD-JPY will be biased higher in the bigger picture as 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well in Japan. A Bloomberg survey last week found 26 of 33 of economists forecasting new BoJ monetary expansion by the end of October. USD-JPY support is at 117.25, resistance at 118.83-87 and 119.00.
03:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar corrected some after posting fresh highs
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January 25, 2015
18:50 EDTGreece's anti-austerity party wins decisively in election, NY Times says
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13:34 EDTLeftist Syriza party in Greece poised to win national election, WSJ says
Exit polls in the Greek national elections show the anti-austerity Syriza party was poised to win a historic victory, says the Wall Street Journal. Reference Link
January 23, 2015
21:27 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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21:27 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
January Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 98.2
21:27 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.0% for the quarter
21:27 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
FOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate will be reported at 14:00 . Current consensus is 0 to 0.25%
21:27 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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21:27 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
December New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 452K
21:27 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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21:27 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
January Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is 4.0
21:27 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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15:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility increases into national elections
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The QE-rally paused on Friday at least in the states after follow-up gains on European stocks and bonds. The ECB virtually guaranteed further yield compression and equity exuberance and the markets gladly complied this week. Risks ahead include the Greek snap national elections on Sunday and the FOMC next week, which may have justified the pause, but neither should provide a lasting impediment. Data included an expected uptick in existing home sales, along with a healthy gain in leading indicators. Yields probed lower early with Europe, then backed up a bit into the close.
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury auctions $90 B in coupons
Treasury Action: Treasury auctions $90 B in coupons and the paper will have to be digested amidst major market crosscurrents including ongoing fallout from the ECB, SNB, and BoC actions, as well as the Greek elections, and ahead of the FOMC decision. There are also geopolitical risks that could impact. When issued yields are lower today in conjunction with the rally across the curve. The wi 2-year note (auctioned Tuesday) is down 2 bps to 0.535%. It was offered at 0.703% in December and garnered only modest results as Fed tightening considerations were impacting. The wi 5-year (Wednesday) is 4 bps lower at 1.35% and compares to the 1.739% award rate from December. In fact, the current yield would be the richest stop since November 2013. That auction was also sloppy and lackluster, and this one could be difficult at this price level and ahead of the Fed. The wi 7-7ear is nearly 5 bps richer at 1.65%, far below the 2.125% in December.
14:14 EDTAverages mixed as trading slows
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14:05 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate option: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate option: bullish positioning included a purchase of 20k in Short June 90/92 call spreads vs an 85 put sale. Underlying futures are still positive, with the March 2015 a half-tick higher at 99.735 and the deferreds still up as much as 12-ticks out the back.
11:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
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11:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a disappointingly small 2.4% December existing home sales bounce alongside a slightly smaller than expected 0.5% December leading indicators gain, though the shortfalls from estimates were modest and the two gains on the month should trim pessimism. Analysts also saw a surprisingly firm December median price rise to $209,500 that capped a five-month seasonal decline from a solid $222,000 June cycle-high, and the price recovery for the housing market is likely more important for economic growth than the sluggish climb in home transactions.
11:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and now finds itself between a rock and a hard place after a flurry of central bank activity that has yielded dramatic stimulus measures. The question now facing the markets is whether the FOMC will stand alone among the G7 in its policy approach as it looks to start normalizing policy. For credibility's sake, nothing has changed significantly on the domestic front since the December meeting to alter the path of rate liftoff later this year, with many on the Committee touting mid-2015 as the start date. Sure inflation has softened further, but policymakers have told us it's transitory phenomena, with several doves even suggesting they could hike rates even with inflation below target as long as it's moving toward the 2% goal. Meanwhile, the economy and the labor market have been performing above expectations, though housing continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, there have been several momentous changes around the world that are leaving the FOMC on relatively tighter footing already. Given these major crosscurrents, analysts suspect the Fed will retain its newly acquired "patient" terminology, and can finally jettison "considerable time." However, analysts don't expect any strong indications of action prior to June. Of importance will be the outlook on inflation and whether there's any mention of concern over further weakness in prices that could suggest a delay to liftoff into Q3 or beyond.
10:30 EDTThe modest 2.4% U.S. existing home sales bounce
The modest 2.4% U.S. existing home sales bounce to a 5.04 M December clip only slightly trimmed the November drop to a downwardly-revised 4.92 (was 4.93) M six-month low from October's 5.25 M one-year high. The median price rose 1.1% to $209,500 in December to cap a five-month drop from a $222,000 June cycle-high. Sales ended 2014 at an anemic pace and inventories remained depressed, though prices continue to climb at a modest pace. Existing home sales are now 6.3% below the 5.380 M recent-peak in July of 2013 -- before the Fed's taper-talk and rising mortgage rates took a toll. Note that for 2014 overall, existing home sales fell 3.1% to a 4.93 M rate despite the presumed underlying recovery. The existing home sales gyration between November and December may have reflected a temporary November weather-hit, though this sales gauge tracks closings and hence weather-hits often show up with a one-month delay. Analysts have cyclical gains of 46% for existing home sales and 37% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 62% for new home sales, 128% for housing starts, and 101% for permits.
10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields held up
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading indicators rose 0.5% to 121.1 in December
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.04 M in December
U.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.04 M in December, a little shy of expectations, after dropping 6.3% to 4.920 M in November (revised down from 4.930 M). Single family sales rebounded 3.5% after a 6.5% drop previously (revised from -6.3%), while condo/coop sales slid 5.0% following a 4.8% November decline. The months' supply of homes declined to 4.4 from 5.1. The median sales price rose to $209,500 versus $207,200 (revised up from $205,300). That's up 6.0% y/y.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in the January
U.S. Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in the January versus 53.9 in December, matching the lowest level since last January. And while this is a 19th consecutive month of expansion, it's a 5th consecutive monthly decline and reflects ongoing loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector. The index was as high as 57.9 in August and as low as 51.0 in October 2012. The employment index improved slightly after falling to 53.0 in December. The factory orders index slid to 54.7 from 55.4, which is also the lowest print in a year.
10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish demand
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09:52 EDTMarket opens lower, turns mixed in early trading
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. The weakness began following a lower than expected reading from the Chicago Fed national activity index, along with a preliminary earnings report from UPS (UPS) warning that it would miss Wall Street Q4 estimates. That sent transportation stocks lower and brought the futures with them. In early trading, however, the Nasdaq has recovered and edged slightly in the green. The Dow is down 57 points, the Nasdaq is up 3 points and the S&P is down 6 points.
09:45 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a big block trade
Euro$ interest rate options: a big block trade involved the bullish sale of 45k in March 95/96 put spreads in block and 5k sold in the pits. In addition, there were bearish purchases of 2k in Blue February 75/77 put 1x2s and 2k in Blue March 75/77 put 1x2s as a package. Also, a bearish 2k purchase of Short June 83/85/87 broken put butterflies. The lead March 2015 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.735, while gains on the deferreds run as high as 12-ticks out the back of the curve. It would appear that the Fed's hike horizon is getting pushed out in the wake of the ECB QE launch.
09:24 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:16 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:16 EDTEnergy Select Sector SPDR volatility elevated as sector near low end of range
Energy Select Sector SPDR overall option implied volatility of 91 compares to its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased under 1.2400
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities posted gains with bulls in Europe
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index fell to -0.05 in December
U.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index fell to -0.05 in December, much weaker than expected. But November was revised higher to 0.92 from 0.73 previously, though the prior 0.31 in October was nudged down to 0.29. The 3-month moving average slipped to 0.39 from November's 0.54 (revised from 0.48) and October's 0.10 (revised from 0.09).
08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest positive open
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08:26 EDTiPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return volatility elevated,oil near five-year low
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08:25 EDTFX Action: The CAD is pulling off a reasonable impression of the euro
FX Action: The CAD is pulling off a reasonable impression of the euro, as it continues to slide against the greenback. The shock BoC rate cut on Wednesday remains the main driver, which has seen USD-CAD touch 1.2455 highs this morning. On top of the easing, WTI oil prices are down testing the $46 level, and further losses there will provide further USD-CAD support. There has been talk of 1.2500 barrier options in place, which will likely be defended should the pairing gain further altitude. The market's major near term target is 1.2715, representing the April, 2009 peak.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is back down
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08:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:52 EDTBrookings Institution holds a discussion on corporate inversions and tax reform
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally, with many markets in Europe and Asia setting fresh record lows in the wake of the ECB's stimulus. The German Bund dropped to 0.355%, while the JGB hit 0.21%; even Greek yields declined ahead of the weekend election. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 8 bps to 1.77%, though it's edged back up to 1.81%. Stocks also continued to rally, while EUR-USD has plunged to 1.1115. In overnight news, Saudi King Abdullah died and will be replaced by his brother Salman. Oil prices are modestly higher. U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.4%. China's flash Markit PMI edged up to 49.8, but remains in contractionary territory. The Eurozone composite PMI improved to 52.2. In the U.S. there is data on December existing home sales, leading indicators, and the flash Markit PMI for January likely to be overlooked. The Chicago Fed's National Activity index and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing reports are also on tap. Earnings reports include McDonald's, GE, Honeywell, and Kimberly-Clark. The focus is also on the Greek elections Sunday and the upcoming FOMC meeting.
07:38 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
A discussion on the research process, fundamental & valuation analysis, with focus on corporate bond analysis and emerging market sovereign debt is being held in Boston on January 23 at 8 am.
07:37 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
MiFID Boston: Trader Instinct Global Trading & Consulting Platform is being held in Boston on January 23.
07:37 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Hong Kong and China Corporate Day is being held in Hong Kong on January 23.
07:19 EDTBass says Europe 'out for parity' between euro and U.S. dollar
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07:15 EDTBass says oil 'could trade at $35'
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07:10 EDTMarket advance appears set to continue
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06:50 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 23
Globex S&P futures are recently up 0.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.06%, DAX up 1.51%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $46.89, natural gas up 3.03%, gold at $1294 an ounce, copper down 1.45%.
06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR weakness continued to be the main show
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05:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled
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02:49 EDTWeek of 2/4 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:49 EDTWeek of 1/26 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
01:45 EDTFX Update: EUR softness, USD firmness continued to be the main theme
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January 22, 2015
22:00 EDTSaudi King Abdullah's demise sent a tremor through the oil market
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21:05 EDTChina manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) improved to 49.8 in January
China manufacturing PMI (HSBC/Markit) improved to 49.8 in January on a preliminary basis ("flash") from a final 49.6 in December. The slight improvement was contrary to projections for some erosion, and could reflect the impact of recent government stimulus measures. Of course, the index remains consistent with a slowing manufacturing sector, just at a slower rate.
20:39 EDTJanuary Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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16:52 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:52 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:52 EDTWeek of 1/30 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:52 EDTWeek of 2/1 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
21:07 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: ECB's Draghi finally shouldered his QE bazooka and pulled the trigger on Thursday after shooting some flak out into the media the day prior that lowered expections to 50 B euro/month in bond purchases compared to the 60 B euro/month target confirmed today. Well played, Mario - the news simultaneously bolstered European stocks and peripherals outperformed and even core bonds jumped on the bandwagen. All else was overshadowed by this historic event, though some reckon that only a program thrice the size of the 1 tln euro plan will achieve the ECB's stated inflation target of 2% in the stated time frame.
14:20 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI, due Friday, to slow to a 1.6% y/y rate in December (median same at 1.6%) from the 2.0% clip in November. CPI is seen falling 0.5% m/m in December (median -0.6%) after the 0.4% drop in November. Another hefty drop in gasoline prices should drive month comparable CPI lower. The BoC's core CPI index is seen falling 0.4% m/m in December, similar to the action seen in past months of December. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate (median same at 2.2%), up from the 2.1% clip in November but below the 2.3% seen in October. That would, of course, leave the measure above the BoC's 2.0% midpoint. However, an unwinding of transitory factors and slower GDP growth will take it back below 2% this year, providing ample scope for Poloz to make good on his pledge to do more (easing) if conditions deteriorate further.
14:20 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
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14:10 EDTBill Gross of Janus: "German 5yr now yields nothing,"
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13:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has crossed the 1.2400 mark
FX Action: USD-CAD has crossed the 1.2400 mark for the first time since April of 2009. The high way back then was 1.2715, which becomes the next major upside target. A broadly strong USD along with softer oil prices saw the figure give way, though the breach of the level has prompted some position squaring.
13:35 EDTAverages higher in broad based advance
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13:23 EDTProShares UltraShort Euro volatility elevated as Euro weakens
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $15 B 10-year TIPS auction was better than expected
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13:01 EDTCBOE Euro Currency Volatility Index-EVZ down 14.8% to 11.62
CBOE Euro Currency Volatility Index-EVZ down 14.8% to 11.62; 50 day-moving average is 9.76.
13:00 EDTU.S. equity gains extended after the strong finish in Europe
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12:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered from its 117.25 low
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12:13 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
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12:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning came in the form of a purchase of 5k in March 127 puts on 10-year futures earlier, along with some demand for March 126.5 puts as well. March 10s are just 4-ticks lower near 129-10 after rebounding from 128-235 lows to 129-27 highs in the wake of the ECB QEternity.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings
Treasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings, down $1 B versus the December total as the size of the 2-year was trimmed to $26 B versus $27 B previously. So, next week's auctions will include the aforementioned 2-year (Tuesday), a $35 B 5-year (Wednesday), and a $29 B 7-year (Thursday). The debt managers also announced a new $15 B 2-year FRN (Tuesday) and an unchanged $48 B 3- and 6-month bill offering (Monday).
11:02 EDTCrude inventories for week of January 16
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10:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded to a $46.91 low
Energy Action: NYMEX crude traded to a $46.91 low, after peaking over $49 into the N.Y. open. The decline is attributed to this morning's dollar rally, which occurred following the ECB QE announcement. Sources report fund buying interest under $47 now, which could provide near term support.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending January 16
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed is expected to reiterates its "patient" approach
Fed Policy Outlook: the Fed is expected to reiterates its "patient" approach to rate normalization in its statement (Wednesday), indicative of an unchanged stance for now. Remember Yellen said in her December press conference that "patient" means no rate hikes "for at least the next couple of meetings." The markets would surely re-price for potential rate liftoff by mid-2015, with some traders likely taking out insurance for an April move as well. Given the ECB's action today, as well as easing moves out of the SNB, the BoC, Denmark, Turkey, India, and others (and the dovish shift from the BoE), it's unlikely the FOMC would want to buck the accommodative trend anytime soon, especially with signs of slowing in global growth and lack of inflationary pressures. It wouldn't be a surprise, either, if the Fed removed "considerable time" since "patient" for all intents and purposes replaced it.
09:55 EDTTreasury Action: the rising tide for bonds from the ECB's QE announcement
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09:35 EDTECB program pushes U.S. equities higher
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09:22 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion on President Obama's India trip
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.2386
FX Action: USD-CAD rallied back to 1.2386 highs, from pre-Draghi levels of 1.2325. The USD moved broadly higher following the QE announcement, though USD-CAD was likely impacted by the concurrent slide in oil prices. WTI fell nearly $1.00, to $4750 after EUR-USD slide to session lows. Initial USD-CAD resistance is seen at 1.2300, though more stops are likely lurking above.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields are cascading lower
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.8% to 216.9 in November
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities picked up a head of steam
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08:55 EDTThe 10k U.S. initial claims drop to 307k
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar zigged and zagged a bit
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08:48 EDTSEC to hold a meeting
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed higher
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08:44 EDTDraghi says ECB to continue buying until Sept. 2016
08:42 EDTECB to buy EUR 60B a month of assets
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 10k to 307k in the week ended January 17
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08:35 EDTFutures pointing to a higher open following claims data
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08:30 EDTU.S. equities are in rally mode
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08:24 EDTBofA/Merrill European economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief European Economist Moec and Head of European Credit Strategy Martin discuss the European Central Bank's meeting announcements, as well as discuss if ECB President Draghi's plan is bold enough together with cross asset implications on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 23 at 9 am.
08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to four-session highs
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota holds annual economic dinner meeting
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07:57 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:55 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion on Chinese economic reform
Discussion of China's economic reform is being held in Washington, D.C. on January 22 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:52 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:48 EDTThe House Energy & Commerce Committee holds a hearing
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07:47 EDTECB leaves key rate unchanged, says further measures to be announced
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07:45 EDTFERC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FERC Washington, D.C. offices on January 22 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries continued to retreat overnight
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: FX trade was fairly light overnight, as the market girded ahead of this morning's ECB policy announcement. EUR-USD reclaimed the 1.16 handle, as USD-JPY eased into 117.50. Focus of course will be on the ECB, and the likely kick off of QE. The amount of QR involved, and the types of securities to be bought will be the key to market reaction. Meanwhile, U.S. data includes weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EST, November FHFA home prices at 9:00 EST, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 11:00 EST.
07:38 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi to hold a press conference
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07:37 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a forum
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07:32 EDTFDA-CDER Anti-Infective Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses Astellas Pharma Global Development's New Drug Applications (NDAs) 207-500 and 207-501, isavuconazonium sulfate capsules and isavuconazonium sulfate for injection respectively, for the proposed indications of treatment of invasive aspergillosis and mucormycosis in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on January 22 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a briefing
BioBriefing for the Non-Scientist gives a high level overview of the key science concepts required for understanding basic biotechnology applications, discussion of biologic drugs, personalized medicine and drug discovery development in Washing, D.C. on January 22.
07:16 EDTFutures higher ahead of European Central Bank statement
Stock futures are higher as the market prepares for the ECB's statement which is expected to be issued at 7:45 am ET. The ECB is expected to announce a quantitative easing program. However, there are still questions about the size of the program, and whether it will be large enough to satisfy the market. Investors will also be examining reports on U.S. housing prices and energy inventories.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded moderately softer
FX Update: The dollar traded moderately softer with EUR-USD lifting to the 1.1630 area as the ECB announcement drew closer and USD-JPY giving back Tokyo-session gains above 118.00, ebbing back to the 117.60-70 area. AUD-USD recovered the 0.81 handle, rebounding from a one-week low at 0.8063 that was seen during the Sydney session. The Jan-6 four-year low at 0.8033 was left untroubled, and the lack of follow-through selling prompted some weaker shorts to cover. The surprise BoC easing yesterday, coupled with the unexpected dovish turn by the two former hawkish dissenters at the BoE, prompted heightened speculation that the RBA will follow suit at its upcoming policy review on Fed-3. USD-CAD, meanwhile, settled in the lower 1.23s after yesterday surging nearly three big figures to 1.2394 following the BoC move on Wednesday.
05:53 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 22
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03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled near 1.2350
FX Action: USD-CAD has settled near 1.2350 after surging nearly three big figures to 1.2394 following yesterday's unexpected BoC rate cut, with the central bank calling it "insurance" against downside risk to lower oil prices, which are "unambiguously negative" for the Canadian economy. Ahead of the announcement, a fresh bout of oil price weakness had been seen following the IMF's global growth downgrade on Tuesday. Low oil prices are bad for the Canadian dollar as it erodes Canada's terms of trade, and some energy analysts are expecting NYMEX oil prices to trade another 10% lower before basing, which would see the 2009 low in NYMEX crude at $40.68 breached. USD-CAD's August 2009 high at 1.3063 provides a big-picture target.
01:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer against the yen and Aussie
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January 21, 2015
17:25 EDTWeek of 1/30 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:25 EDTWeek of 1/30 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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16:10 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims for the week of January 17th will be released Thursday and should reveal a headline figure of 300k (median 300k) following last week's surprise bounce to 316k. The early month climb in claims has left January poised for a weaker average of 300k from 291k in December.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:03 EDTAverages near unchanged in muted trading day
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13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put buying
Treasury Option Action: bearish put buying accompanied the earlier sell-off, including the purchase of 1.5k in March 127.5 puts on 10-year futures. March 10s are 11-ticks lower near 129-165, having roamed from 130-045 highs to lows of 129-14 after the accumulation of dovishness from the BoE, ECB and BoC, which lit bullish fuse under stocks in those respective regions.
13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY struggled some earlier
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12:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a growing issue calendar
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12:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields have ramped higher
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12:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more action
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12:05 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD buy-stops didn't stay intact for long
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has found good support
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11:16 EDTProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF volatility elevated
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD gapped to 1.2289 highs
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10:09 EDTDeutsche Bank finance analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss their thoughts and trades into the European Central Bank (ECB) on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 21 at 10:30 am.
10:03 EDTBank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 0.75%
The Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 0.75%. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1% and the deposit rate is 0.5%. This decision is in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada. Inflation has remained close to the 2% target in recent quarters. Core inflation has been temporarily boosted by sector-specific factors and the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, which are offsetting disinflationary pressures from slack in the economy and competition in the retail sector. Total CPI inflation is starting to reflect the fall in oil prices, the bank noted.
09:56 EDTMarket searching for direction in early trading
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09:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped higher after the open
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09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed flows
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09:38 EDTECB said to weigh bond buying program of EUR 50B per month, Bloomberg reports
The ECB quantitative easing program is said to be considered to run at EUR 50B per month through 2016, according to Bloomberg.
09:25 EDTBank of Canada Governor Poloz holds a news conference
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09:25 EDTThe 4.4% December U.S. housing starts bounce
The 4.4% December U.S. housing starts bounce to a 1.089 M clip beat estimates, after upward October and November revisions, alongside a 6.3% bounce in completions that mostly reversed the October-November drop. Yet, analysts also saw a 1.39% permits decline to a surprisingly lean 1.032 M pace that trimmed prospects for starts in January. A hefty 2.3% December pop in starts under construction slightly lifted the balance of risks for Q4 GDP, were analysts still expect 3.5% growth. The weather improved sharply in December after harsh weather in November as was evident in the big utility gyration in the last industrial production report that included a 7.3% December plunge after a 4.2% November surge though regional starts data slow little evidence. Beyond weather, the single-digit pace of recovery in the 2014 housing market was disappointing on net. Starts and permits are both poised for restrained Q1 rates in the 1.065 M area, versus prior respective rates of 1.075 M and 1.059 M in Q4 and a 1.030 M rate for both in Q3.
09:16 EDTCFA Society of Atlanta to hold annual forecasting event
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09:15 EDTU.S. Redbook reported chain store sales slid 3.5% for the month-to-date
U.S. Redbook reported chain store sales slid 3.5% for the month-to-date ending January 17, from a 3.2% decline previously. Compared to the same period last year, sales slowed a bit to 3.4% y/y versus 3.8% y/y. According to the Goldman Sachs/Retail Economist (formerly known as the ICSC index), sales fell 1.3% in the week ended January 17 after a 2.1% decline previously. It's a third straight monthly decline for this measure. The post-holiday shopping season is starting off with a thud as discounting weighs a bit on the bottom line. Compared to last year, however, the Retail Economist sales index rose at a 3.4% y/y rate versus the prior 2.8% y/y clip, though not as fast as the 3.9% y/y pace for the January 3 week.
09:08 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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09:08 EDTFinancial Stability Oversight Council to hold a meeting
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09:05 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on the FCC
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities rolled over lower after an IBM miss
U.S. equities rolled over lower after an IBM miss and amid caution emerging ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow, which, if history is any future guide, could come up shy of market expectations on full-blown QE (ECB's Nowotny downplayed). Housing starts rose 4.4% in December, perhaps beginning to feel the benefit of lower global rates, though permits were lower. This didn't thrill stocks and the Dow is 65-points lower, S&P fell 5-points and NASDAQ is off 7-points in pre-market action. The Euro Stoxx 50 is above earlier lows, but still 0.4% lower and the Swiss Market Index is 2% lower after more mixed trade in Asia with the Japan N-225 0.49% lower and the Shanghai Comp 4.7% higher. IBM shed 2.5% after coming up shy of expectations, while Qualcomm sank 2.8% after reports Samsung may not use its chips in its next Smartphone. That said, Netflix surged 18% on news of increased subscriber growth.
09:04 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:02 EDTCFA Society of Washington, D.C. to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:01 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold luncheon meeting
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar didn't do much of anything
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows perversely
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 4.4% to 1.089 M in December
U.S. housing starts rebounded 4.4% to 1.089 M in December after falling 4.5% to 1.043 in November (revised from 1.028 M; October's prior 1.045 M pace was revised to 1.092 M). Building permits dropped another 1.9% to 1.032 M from a revised 1.052 M (was 1.035 M). Single family starts increased 7.2% following a 5.2% December drop (revised from -5.4%), while multifamily starts dipped 0.8% after a 3.2% decline previously (revised from a 6.7% gain). Housing completions were up 6.3% after declines of 4.7% in November (revised from 6.4%) and 3.7% in October (revised from 2.9%).
08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has retreated from Tuesday's trend high
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08:34 EDTFutures remain lower ahead of open
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08:25 EDTJapan is a cautionary tale for the Fed
Japan is a cautionary tale for the Fed so says WSJ's Hilsenrath in the Grand Central blog after telling us on Monday that a mid-2015 is still a virtual lock. Prematurely hiking rates in 2006, only to have to knock them back down again following the financial crisis, which would be the "nightmare scenario" for the Fed. "Federal Reserve officials say it would be a disaster if they attempt to raise rates and then are forced to push them back down to zero. It is one reason why many officials want to be patient and certain the U.S. economy is fully on the mend before the central bank moves toward raising rates later this year. Yes, yes, yes, there are many differences between Japan’s economy, financial system and central bank and the U.S. Analysts have heard this many times. Still, Japan's experience is a reminder that any number of factors - bad luck, global economic shocks, nagging headwinds to the domestic economy, the drags of an aging population -- could derail the Fed's hopeful plans. Perhaps this is one reason why investors - who have pushed long-term U.S. rates down in recent weeks and whose futures market rate expectations are lower than the Fed's published forecasts - are so skeptical that U.S. rates are anywhere near returning to normal."
08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:01 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
The Health Subcommittee holds a two day hearing entitled, "A Permanent Solution to Sustainable Growth Rate" with Alice Rivlin Director at the Brookings Institute and former U.S. Senator, Joseph Lieberman on January 21 at 10:15 am. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady
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07:59 EDTThe FDIC to hold a Board of Directors Meeting
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07:53 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:52 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
dbAccess CEEMEA Conference is being held in London, England on January 21-23.
07:51 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a tour
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07:50 EDTWorld Economic Forum to hold annual meeting
Annual Meeting 2015 is being held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland on January 21-24.
07:49 EDTWells Fargo to hold a symposium
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07:45 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 14.2%
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar traded on a weaker footing overnight, though into the ECB meeting on Thursday, EUR-USD did not stray far from Tuesday's closing levels. USD-JPT pulled back on the BoJ's lack of policy action, though USD-CAD remained form into this morning's BoC announcement. Equity futures and yields are lower this morning, which will likely keep the USD on the defensive, while December housing starts provide the only calendar entry this morning.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are lower
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07:21 EDTMarket will try to improve on yesterday’s advance
U.S. equity futures are slightly lower this morning as the market tries to build on yesterday 's slight advance Earnings season is in full swing, and the number of companies reporting their results will accelerate for the rest of the week. The president’s State of the Union speech did little to help the equity market, but gold prices are continuing to rebound and are rising 0.3% in early trading. Equity investors will be watching data on housing starts and building permits, which are due out at 8:30 am ET.
07:00 EDTFX Update:
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06:44 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 21
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04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered above 117.80
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04:00 EDTBoJ's Kuroda reaffirmed intention to achieve the 2% CPI target
BoJ's Kuroda reaffirmed intention to achieve the 2% CPI target during his post-meeting press conference, "regardless of whether commodity prices rise or fall" and that "on the assumption that oil prices will flatten out at current levels and rise moderately ahead, the effect of the oil price decline will ease. If so, analysts expect consumer inflation to reach 2 percent in a period centred on fiscal 2015." Kuroda also said that "some board members held a more cautious view on the price outlook," and that the easing in October was "because crude oil price falls and the pain from a sales tax hike in April." So, no hints that there may be a further expansion in policy, which caused the yen to pop higher. A Bloomberg survey found 26 of 33 of economists forecast fresh BoJ monetary expansion by the end of October.
01:50 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY losses after the BoJ statement led broader dollar losses
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00:30 EDTBoJ kept policy unchanged
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January 20, 2015
16:48 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:48 EDTWeek of 1/31 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:10 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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13:55 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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13:50 EDTU.S. equities have rebounded from lows
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13:36 EDTMarket off worst levels, turns mixed as Nasdaq edges into green
The major equity indices, which have spent most of the day in negative territory since falling shortly after the open, are now mixed, with the Nasdaq just barely in the green. The Dow is the biggest loser, down more than 0.4%, amid pressure from shares of Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), which is lower following its quarterly earnings report. Declining issues are ahead of advancers by more than 2:1, WTI crude oil prices were down about 4% near 1 pm ET, and while gold was up more than 1.3%.
13:30 EDTTreasury Action: path of least resistance in yields is to the south side
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13:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD came close to reaching its upside target
FX Action: USD-CAD came close to reaching its upside target of 1.2131, which represents the February 9, 2009 weekly low. The pairing posted 1.2112 highs earlier, and has stayed above 1.2070 since first breaching the 1.21 handle. Oil prices have moved off their lows, and back over $47, though the risk backdrop remain CAD negative. In addition, expectations for a more dovish sounding BoC tomorrow, could keep USD-CAD supported for now.
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: the curve continues to flatten
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid thanks to the rally across the curve today. The longer dated tranche outperformed. The $24 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.075%, through the 0.08% at the bid deadline and is 1 bp richer than last week's 0.085% award rate. There were $99.6 B in bids for a 4.18 cover, not quite as high as the 4.22 previously, but better than the 4.05 average. Indirect bidders accepted 32.6% versus 46.1% previously and the 36.0% average. The $24 B 3-month bill was awarded at 0.025%, right on the screws and the same as last week's 0.025%. It ties the lowest stop since November 24. Bids totaled $103.1 B for a 4.31 cover, a little better than the 4.25 last week but a little below the 4.36 average. Indirect bidders took 13.5%, less than the prior 22.8%, and the 24.6% average.
11:40 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility rebounded from lows under 20.0
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Wednesday
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11:06 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:52 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated into national elections
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF February call option implied volatility is at 100, March is at 78, April is at 76; compared to its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement into national elections.
10:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: five issuers are lined up today
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields drifted lower
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10:15 EDTFed Governor Powell sees further regulatory action
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell to 57 in January
U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell to 57 in January after holding steady at 58 in December (revised up from 57). The 59 print in September was the highest since late 2005. The current single family sales index was steady at 62 (revised up from 61). But the future index dropped 4 points to 60 from 64 (revised down from 65). The index of prospective buyer traffic also slipped 2 points to 44 in January from December's 46 (revised from 45). The report doesn't alter views on the housing market where the expansion remains sluggish.
10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has come off its highs
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish put selling
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09:55 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Faces Downside January Risk:
U.S. Producer Sentiment Faces Downside January Risk: Early month measures of U.S. producer sentiment lent a modest downside bias to the outlook for later month releases, as the dramatic Philly Fed plunge trumped the more modest gains in the Empire State components for the month. The ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys appears likely to sustain it's December drop to 53, following the five-month run of 56 cycle-high readings evident since last July's big vehicle assembly rate pop.
09:46 EDTMarket opens higher despite IMF cutting world growth forecasts
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09:40 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the HMI is forecast to hold steady at 57 in January (median 58) from 57 in December. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD continues to press higher
FX Action: USD-CAD continues to press higher, trading into 1.2040 after the combination of weak Canadian manufacturing data, and further oil price losses. WTI crude traded under $46.70, down from overnight highs of $48.21. USD-CAD buy stops are expected to kick in at 1.2050.
09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish put buying
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08:57 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide their weekly Industrials outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on January 20 at 11 am.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched session highs
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08:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $47.65
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $47.65, down from Friday's close at $48.69, though up from overnight lows of $47.45. The IMF downgrade of global 2015 likely put some pressure on the contract, though few will be turning bullish until prices are able to stabilize over $50.00. RBOB gasoline futures are steady over $1.34/gallon, while average U.S. retail gasoline prices dropped another penny/gallon from Monday, and 6 cents over the past week, now at $2.05/gallon, according to AAA. Front month natural gas futures have receded under $2.94/M BTU, down from $3.04 highs.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are pointing higher with global stocks
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08:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is still on course to hike rates later this year
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08:25 EDTCanadian Manufacturing Shipments Preview:
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08:20 EDTFedspeak is due from Governor Powell
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting bifurcated results
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting bifurcated results with the long end posting small gains and the front end slightly lower. The 10-year yield is at 1.82%, after having hit a low of 1.788% overnight. The 2-year yield is at 0.46%. Core sovereign yields are higher. Equities are in rally mode after better than expected Chinese GDP growth, up 7.3%, and a pick up in German investor confidence. Meanwhile, the IMF followed the World Bank's action last week in cutting global growth estimates. In the U.S. today the calendar is light with just the NAHB housing market index for January. Earnings reports will be monitored with Morgan Stanley, IBM, J&J, Halliburton, General Dynamics, Freeport-McMoRan, Delta, Coach, and Netflix.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mixed overnight, making headway against the yen, while losing ground to the euro. Better risk taking levels helped USD-JPY, as improved German ZEW data, and short covering into the ECB meeting later this week came to EUR-USD's rescue. USD-CAD is within sight of its trend highs of 1.2046, as oil prices head lower again, and as the market gears up for what could be a dovish BoC policy statement on Wednesday. Aside from the NAHB housing market index at 10:00 EST, the calendar is empty this morning.
07:33 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:31 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:28 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Turkish Equity 1-1 Conference is being held in London, England on January 19-20.
07:27 EDTBarclays to hold a forum
Mandiri Investment Forum - Indonesia: Pushing the Structural Reform is being held in Indonesia on January 20-21.
07:26 EDTFed still on track to raise rates later in year, WSJ says
With the Federal Reserve set to begin a self-imposed pre-meeting blackout today as it prepares for a policy meeting later this month, and with the ECB apparently ready to begin its own quantitative easing program of bond buying, Federal Reserve officials appear set to stay on track to begin raising short-term interest rates later this year, according to The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone. Reference Link
07:25 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:14 EDTFutures suggest positive open ahead of State of the Union speech
U.S. equity futures are higher this morning on the heels of better than expected GDP data out of China. The move higher comes despite reduced forecasts from the IMF , which cut its 2015 global growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.8%. There is little for investors to key in on today. All eyes will be on the President’s State of the Union address tonight. The lone economic report scheduled to be released today is the NAHB Housing Market Index, which is due out at 10:00 am ET.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mixed
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06:45 EDTIMF cuts global growth forecast
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06:37 EDTChina's Q4 growth beat expectations, Reuters says
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06:32 EDTSPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF volatility elevated into ECB
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for January 20
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05:51 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is February 20, 2015
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05:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high
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04:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high
FX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower after making a two-week high in Tokyo trade at 118.53. Spot is presently 118.22 bid, with an earlier dip leaving a low at 117.98. The 50-day moving average at 118.64 is in scope. A 2% gain in the Nikkei stock index conducive for yen losses today, while market narratives highlighted 'gotobi' corporate demand for USD-JPY, stop buying, and the approach of Wednesday's BoJ policy announcement. The Reuters Tankan survey of Japanese businesses also saw the manufacturers index dip to +9 in January, down from +10 in December. Analysts expect USD-JPY to remain biased higher in the bigger picture as 'Abenomics' policies remain alive and well in Japan. Support is at 117.98-118.00, resistance at 118.43-50.
02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer
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January 19, 2015
21:32 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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21:32 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
21:32 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:50 EDTAsia Market Outlook: Attention turns to China's Q4 GDP
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14:55 EDTCanadian manufacturing shipments preview
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14:25 EDTThe Bank of Japan will meet Tuesday and Wednesday
The Bank of Japan will meet Tuesday and Wednesday, though no shift in policy is anticipated. Much of the focus has been on the plunge in oil and the impact that will have on the BoJ's inflation forecast. Against that backdrop, there has been speculation that the Bank will expand loan schemes. However, it is not clear that it will engage in additional stimulus, mindful that the drop in oil will support the economy and that the drag from the tax increase will fade. Indeed, there has been speculation that the JPY could rebound further should the BoJ extend the horizon for its 2% inflation target. page.
12:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar has traded moderately lower
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is trading steadily
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower
FX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower in quiet trade ahead of BoJ and ECB policy decisions this week, the upcoming election in Greece, and with U.S. markets set to be closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1600 after capping out at 1.1628. The rebound was fuelled by short covering and corporate demand, coming after the euro logged a fresh nine-year lows of 1.1460 on Friday. EUR-CHF trade remained choppy and somewhat erratic, roughly centred on 1.000, after the SNB unexpectedly abandoned the franc cap last week. USD-CAD consolidated in the mid-119s after logging a fresh trend high on Friday at 1.2046. Chinese equity markets dropped sharply today, with the Shanghai Composite closing 7.7% for the worse, the biggest one-day falls since June 2008, prompted by new regulations aimed at reining in margin lending. This caused AUD-USD to dip to a low of 0.8196, though the pair remained well within Friday's range.
06:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded moderately lower
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03:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading lower today in light trade
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January 18, 2015
13:57 EDTGreece's antiausterity Syriza party widens lead in opinion poll, WSJ says
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