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News Breaks
December 19, 2012
06:38 EDTDecember front month equity options expire, December 21, 2012
News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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December 1, 2015
11:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures powered higher
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11:25 EDTNY Fed's Liberty Street blog notes the NYFRB's model
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY selling continued
FX Action: USD-JPY selling continued after the initial drop post-ISM, putting in a 122.80 low, after peaking at 123.19 at the N.Y. open. The pairing has since stabilized dover the 80 level, as Wall Street regains some poise. Japanese selling interest over 123.00 has kept yen bears frustrated for the past couple of weeks, though support is expected into 122.26, which represents the recent lows.
11:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a hefty November ISM plunge to a new expansion-low of 48.6, though analysts also saw a round of upside construction spending surprises via a 1.0% October climb in the aggregate following upward Q3 revisions that lifted our assumed growth clip for Q3 GDP back to an unrevised 2.1%. Analysts are also seeing another firm round of vehicle sales figures in November that should leave a third consecutive month with a sales clip near a cycle-high 18.1 M pace. It's clear that analysts're seeing a hefty hit to the factory sector from the inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, and a big petro-sector hit from oil price declines, though the construction sector will show a solid Q4 performance, and consumer demand for vehicles remains robust.
10:55 EDTThe U.S. construction spending report beat estimates
The U.S. construction spending report beat estimates with a 1.0% October rise after August and September boosts that left a solid path for new residential and public construction into Q4 with firm nonresidential figures, alongside downward bumps in the home improvement residual. Analysts've raised our Q3 GDP estimate back to an unrevised 2.1%, and our estimated 2% growth clip in Q4 now faces some upside risk from the construction sector. For Q3 GDP component revisions, analysts now expect hikes of $1 B for both residential and public construction and a $1 B boost from equipment spending, but a $4 B downward bump in factory inventories. Analysts expect GDP growth of 2.0% in Q4, with a 17% (was 13%) Q4 pace in real residential construction after an estimated 8.1% (was 7.3%) rate in Q3, and a 1% (was flat) Q4 real nonresidential construction figure after a 7.1% contraction rate in Q3. Growth in real government purchases is pegged at 0.8% in Q4 after a 1.8% (was 1.7%) Q3 clip.
10:35 EDTU.S. equities finally ran out of steam
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the drop in the ISM puts a wrinkle in the Fed's view
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10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM plunge to a 48.6 new expansion-low
The U.S. ISM plunge to a 48.6 new expansion-low from a 50.1 two-year low in October left a four-month stretch of weak readings that lie well below the early-2015 low-point of 51.5 in March and April. Today's ISM plunge follows a Chicago PMI drop to 48.7 from a 56.2 nine-month high, a Dallas Fed rise to -4.9 from -12.7, versus a -20.8 expansion-low in May, a Richmond Fed drop to -3.0 from -1.0, a Philly Fed rise to 1.9 from -4.5, and an Empire State uptick to -10.74 from -11.36. Analysts expect an ISM-NMI drop to 57.5 from 59.1. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys of just 50 for a third consecutive month, versus 51 in August as also seen over the three months ending in May, before the temporary June-July bounce to 53. Analysts saw a 56 cycle-high in July of 2014 that was also seen in February and March of 2011. Analysts expect GDP growth of just 2.0% in Q4 and Q3 (estimated revision from 2.1%), after growth of 3.9% in Q2 and 0.6% in Q1. Analysts expect a 1% Q4 industrial production drop after a 1.9% rate of climb in Q3, but contraction rates of 2.4% in Q2 and 0.3% in Q1.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their slide
Treasury Action: yields extended their slide in the wake of the dive in the ISM manufacturing index below the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since November 2012, though the employment index actually rose and prices paid plunged. In contrast, construction spending was quite firm and stocks are extending their rally. The T-note yield probed below 2.19% after another failed clearance of 2.25% in Asia, though the 2.17-2.15% support zone may return ahead of Yellen speeches, the ECB and payrolls later in the week. The 2s-10s spread continues to sink another 2-3 bp to +126 bp as the long-end outperforms led by the long bond.
10:10 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell to session lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. ISM dropped to 48.6 in November, a big miss
U.S. ISM dropped to 48.6 in November, a big miss, versus 50.1 in October. This is the lowest reading since June 2009. The last time it was below 50 was November 2012. The employment component was one of the few bright spots, bouncing to 51.3 after tumbling to 47.6 in October. New orders dropped to 48.9 from 52.9. Order backlog inched up to 43.0 from 42.5. New export orders were unchanged at 47.5. Prices paid slid further to 35.5 from 39.0.
10:03 EDTStocks higher in early trading following global PMI readings
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10:01 EDTConstruction Spending data reported
October Construction Spending up 1.0% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
10:01 EDTISM Mfg Index data reported
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit PMI fell to 52.8 in November
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09:50 EDTMixed early returns on November auto sales
Mixed early returns on November auto sales have been the rule so far, with Fiat-Chrysler up 3.0% vs +3.2-3.4% estimates, while GM initial estimates rose 1.5% vs 2.9% forecasts, along with Ford at +0.3% vs 3.2% targeted, among others. That said, experts are still expecting aggregate sales to tally above 18 M for the month for the third consecutive month as the aging fleet and low gasoline prices help prop up demand for SUVs and the like.
09:45 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
U.S. Construction Spending Preview: October construction spending should reveal a 0.5% (median 0.5%) headline which follows a 0.6% headline in September and 0.7% in August. The October employment report included a 31k surge for construction employment, but housing measures for the month were mixed with both starts and existing home sales declining for the month.
09:40 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
U.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview: November ISM should reveal a slight headline increase to 50.5 (median 50.4) from 50.1 in October and 50.2 in September. Other measures of producer sentiment for the month have been mixed so far but analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to hold steady at 50 for a third month as analysts discussed in our November 23 commentary.
09:20 EDTU.S. Auto Sales Preview
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