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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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November 21, 2014
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasuries showed some predictive prowess on Friday into the teeth of a screaming rally on European equities and opening bounce on Wall Street following dovish signals from China and Europe. Yields topped out quickly and reversed lower while stocks stateside were still on the fence, gathering momentum lower as equity bulls pulled back in their horns in front of Thanksgiving illiquidity next week. Bunds also rallied and the Bund/T-note spread stretched to recent wides before snapping back.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade of the coming week in Treasuries
Treasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade of the coming week in Treasuries, according to sourecs. The combination of a big month-end Treasury duration index and shorter dated supply, look for the 2s-10s and the 5s-30s to narrow further. The Barclays' Treasury index is estimated extending out 0.13 years, versus a 0.09 year average, as it's a refunding month with new 10s and 30s. The low inflation environment should also underpin longer dated debt instruments. As for supply, the Treasury is auctioning $28 B in 2-year notes, $35 B in 5s, and $29 B in 7s. The 2s-10s spread is at 181 bps, just off the 179 from November 7, which was the lowest since June 2013. The 5s-30s gap is at 141 bps, the lowest since October 1, 2008.
14:20 EDTSt. Louis Fed dove Bullard is complaining that he was misread
St. Louis Fed dove Bullard is complaining that he was misread when he hinted at extending bond buying past its October deadline last month after the global margin call on October-15, which was followed by a sharp stock market rally, according to the WSJ Real Time Economics blog. He claims that his Bloomberg interview, which mulled a low cost insurance policy of further $15 B/month stimulus, was not inconsistent with his subsequent praise of the Fed decision to end bond purchases. To wit: "I'm one that wants the committee to be nimble and be able to react to data that's coming in. So maybe it's more natural for me to say analysts can shade our position one way or another in response to macroeconomic developments."
13:50 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility decreases on stable price movement
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12:30 EDTU.S. equities are cooling off
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11:55 EDTTreasury Action: the rally in bonds is limiting the chance to set up for supply
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took a look at the overnight low
FX Action: USD-JPY took a look at the overnight low of 117.35, stopping at 117.38 before bouncing to 117.55. A layer of bids is reportedly sitting between 117.40 and 117.30, which appeared to stop the bleeding. The pairing had topped out at 118.07 in early trade, where domestic selling interest was noted.
11:04 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
November Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at 7 vs. consensus of 6
10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly focusing on futures rolls
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10:30 EDTTreasury Action: disconnect from the stock rally
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10:10 EDTFed's looming jobs vs inflation conundrum
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09:47 EDTMarket opens with new records following China rate cut, ECB pledge
Stock futures were strong throughout the pre-market trading session on the heels of a rate cut in China and the suggestion by ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready with additional stimulus measures. The market opened with a triple digit rise for the Dow and nearly 1% gains as well for the other major equity indices. In early trading, the Dow is up 152 points, the Nasdaq is up 37 points and the S&P is up 17 points.
09:45 EDTFed Governor Tarullo warned that physical commodities can pose unique risks
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell
FX Action: USD-CAD fell in the aftermath of the much hotter Canadian CPI report, taking the pairing to 1.1192 lows, down from 1.1260 ahead of the release. The move marks the lowest since the end of October, with support now seen at the October 31 low of 1.1185. Another significant move for USD-CAD, as it fell from 1.1326 highs following the news that China cut rates. The rebound in commodity prices drove the CAD higher then.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are back in rally mode
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08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up to $77.75/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up to $77.75/bbl, up from $75.62 lows, on the back of China's rate cut, posting eight-session highs in the process. Adding to the rally has been a shift in sentiment toward an OPEC production cut next week, where members Venezuela and Libya have indicated they are agreeable to reducing output. Initial resistance is seen just under $78, where prices peaked on November 11-12.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are fractionally lower as equities surge
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are fractionally lower as equities surge after dovish comments from ECB's Draghi and a surprise rate cut by China. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.35% Trading volume was strong. European sovereigns are modestly higher with the Bund yield slipping below 0.80%. Reviving hopes for QE was Draghi's statement that "indicators have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low," and he indicated that the Bank might have to "broaden even more the channels through which analysts intervene." Meanwhile, the Fed's Williams said low global growth with low inflation is a risk in comments from London. There wasn't much data overnight and today's U.S. calendar is empty save for the KC Fed manufacturing index. Treasury supply is heavy next week and could leave Treasury yields biased higher, especially if Wall Street continues higher.
07:31 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:30 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Governor Tarullo
Fedspeak is due from Governor Tarullo who will testify at a hearing on "Physical Commodities" before a Senate subcommittee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs" from 9:30 ET.
07:10 EDTFX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher
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07:08 EDTChina rate cut, ECB statement lift futures
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07:05 EDTFX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher
FX Update: Two develops drove the EUR lower and the AUD higher. One was a shock interest rate cut by the PBoC, which drove stock and commodity prices higher and saw AUD-USD spike nearly 100 pips to a three-day high at 0.8722. USD-CAD concurrently dipped to a three-day low at 1.1277. The other market-moving development was provided by ECB boss Draghi, who said, "indicators have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low," and that, "if on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough" to achieve price stability, "analysts would step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which analysts intervene." That sent EUR-USD tumbling to a one-week low at 1.2424, thereafter seeing little bounce. USD-JPY, meanwhile, was largely unaffected by the China rate move, and held in a choppy range in the mid-to-upper 117s and 118.00. The pair had dropped from levels above 118.30 during the Tokyo session after Japan's Finance Minister Aso said that yen weakening over the past week had been "too rapid."
06:38 EDTDraghi indicates more stimulus measures on the way, NY Times reports
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06:20 EDTStock markets have rallied on the China rate cut shock
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06:15 EDTChina's PBoC unexpectedly cut interest rates
China's PBoC unexpectedly cut interest rates, slashing the one-year lending rate by 40 bp and the one-year deposit rate by 25 bp. The move has a similar shock impact as the BoJ's unexpected expansion of its QQE program had last month, and likely reflects Chinese policymakers' determination to keep growth above 7.0% y/y (Q3 GDP dipped to 7.3% from 7.5%).
05:50 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 21
Globex S&P futures are recently up 14.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.33%, DAX up 1.70%. WTI Crude oil is at $75.65, natural gas down 2.47%, gold at $1189 an ounce, copper down 0.05%.
05:43 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is today, November 21, 201
04:34 EDTWeek of 11/24 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:34 EDTWeek of 12/3 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:40 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY has seen volatile trade
FX Update: USD-JPY has seen volatile trade that left a high at 118.36 and a low at 117.35 before settling around 117.80. Japan's Finance Minister Aso said that yen weakening over the past week as "too rapid,," which prompted a round of yet buying. Aso said analysts was against "rapid FX moves" whether up or down, which are unwelcome, as forex rates should be determined by the market. Elsewhere, the other dollar majors saw pretty subdued trade. EUR-USD oscillated in the mid-1.25s holding well within recent ranges. The rebound in U.S. Treasury yields after solid Philly Fed index, home sales LEI figures yield improve the dollar's yield advantage, though this hasn't fed through to the forex market. AUD-USD carved out a two-day high of 0.8651, aided by steadier commodity prices, before ebbing back to the low 0.86s.
November 20, 2014
21:25 EDTJapan Finance Minister Aso warned against "rapid FX moves"
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16:48 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:30
16:48 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:45
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16:48 EDT Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser Speech to be released at 12:30
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16:39 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 08:15
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16:39 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:39 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 11/10 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at $50.6B
16:39 EDTWeek of 11/29 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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16:39 EDTWeek of 11/28 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury yields rebounded from lows on Thursday after a spate of U.S. economic updates helped put a floor under them following a series of dour China and Eurozone PMI releases that weighed on stocks globally. Alibaba also debuted a large $8 B multi-tranche bond offering that crowded the market before any unwinding of hedge locks. The Philly Fed index virtually doubled to 40.8, along with a 1.5% gain in home sales and 0.9% LEI jump, to help prop up Wall Street from opening lows, which followed on the heels of a drop in Markit PMI, 0.2% rise in core CPI and 2k dip in jobless claims.
14:40 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: leaning to the bearish side
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13:10 EDTTreasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopen was well received
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS preview: the auction is likely to see tepid results
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12:35 EDTU.S. corporate debt: Alibaba launched its $8 B 6-trancher
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD managed 1.1294 lows
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11:55 EDTTreasury announced a $92 B package of coupon auctions for next week
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11:55 EDTA fat-finger surge on the VIX equity volatility index
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11:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put buying
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10:55 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
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10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed surge to a 21-year high of 40.8
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending November 14
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10:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy volume trade
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10:20 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November after falling 1.8 points to 20.7 in October. This is the strongest print going all the way back to December 1993. The employment component bounced back to 22.4 from 12.1, and is just above the 21.2 in September. The workweek bounced back to 7.8 from -1.3. New orders more than doubled to 35.7 from 17.3. Prices paid declined to 17.3 from 27.6, with prices received falling to 11.5 from 20.8. The 6-month business conditions index rose more moderately to 57.7 from 54.5 and is down from the 66.4 in August (which was the highest since June 1992). The 6-month employment index rose to 31.5 from 28.0, with capital expenditures at 23.0 from 18.9 and prices paid at 35.5 from 32.9. The data are much stronger than expected but probably overstate the momentum in manufacturing nationally.
10:20 EDTU.S. index of leading indicators climbed 0.9% to 105.2 in October
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher
FX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher after the amazingly strong Philly Fed report. In addition, leading indicators were much stronger than forecasts, while existing homes sales were strong as well. EUR-USD fell to 1.2525 from 1.2550, as USD-JPY moved toward 118.25 from 118.00. Wall Street turned mixed from being broadly lower.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index surged 20.1 points to 40.8 in November
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rose 1.5% to 5.26 in October
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10:04 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:04 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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10:04 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
October Leading Indicators up 0.9% vs. consensus of 0.5% for the month
10:00 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI slipped 1.2 points to 54.7 in November
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09:55 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
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09:55 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:50 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:50 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level data reported
November PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level at 54.7 vs. consensus of 56.5
09:40 EDTTreasury Action: risk aversion has crept into the mix
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD blipped higher
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09:05 EDTThe flat October U.S. CPI headline figure
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09:05 EDTFed Governor Tarullo discussed "liquidity regulation"
Fed Governor Tarullo discussed "liquidity regulation", arguing for regularized and slightly lagged disclosure from banks on standardized liquidity requirements. This could require banks to aggregate qualitative and quantitative assessments of liquidity, though the plan remains unclear at this stage and he's pretty comfortable that such plans won't clash with the Basel liquidity requirements. See his speech.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
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08:50 EDTThe 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 291k
The 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 291k in the BLS survey week of November trimmed the 15k bounce to 293k (was 290k) from a lower 278k at the start of the month, as claims oscillate around the lean 284k BLS survey week reading from October. Claims remain above the particularly tight 266k cycle-low from early October. Claims are averaging 291k in November, following a lower 280k October average but higher prior averages of 294k in September, 303k in August, and 296k in July. Today's 291k BLS survey week reading sits above recent BLS readings of 284k in October and 281k in September, but below prior readings of 299k in August and 303k in July. Analysts expect a 215k November payroll rise that nearly matches the 214k October increase. Payrolls face upside risk from a firm trend for claims and ADP, sustained strength in producer sentiment, and an October consumer confidence climb that is likely extending into November, given gains in available November measures such as Michigan sentiment and the Bloomberg weekly index.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded following firmer core CPI
Treasury Action: yields rebounded following firmer core CPI, while initial jobless claims sank just slightly. The T-note yield shot up to test 2.34% from the 2.32% area earlier and session lows of 2.31%. That still leaves the yield cap near 2.38-2.40% intact for now, pending the second round of Philly, home sales and LEI reports. The 2s-10s spread is trading inside +182 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. CPI was unchanged in October while the core rate rose 0.2%
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08:40 EDTFutures remain lower following economic reports
Stock futures remain lower as the market follows in the footsteps of the European averages which have declined. There were 291K Weekly initial jobless claims versus expectations of 284K, while continuing claims came in at 2.33M versus expectations of 2.37M. The Consumer Prices Index came in at 0% for October versus expectations of a drop of 0.1%. The core reading which removes food and energy was up 0.2% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 2k to 291k in the week ended November 15
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08:34 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 11/15 Jobless Claims at 291K vs. consensus of 284K
08:30 EDTFedspeak is back in the mix
Fedspeak is back in the mix starting with Fed Governor Tarullo, who will address "Liquidity Regulation" at the ClearningHouse Annual Conference from 7:45 ET. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester will discuss "Forward Guidance and Communications in U.S. Monetary Policy" from 13:30 ET. SF Fed dove Williams will take part in a panel discussion after the close on "Macroeconomic Rebalancing for Sustainable Growth" from 20:30 ET.
08:20 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries surged higher overnight
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims are expected to drop back 12k to 278k (median 280k) in the week-ended November 15. Forecast risk is upward, as claims should rebound slightly after hitting a new recent low. Continuing claims are expected to fall 20k to 2,372k for the week-ended November 8. preview for more.
08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude ranged between $74.17 and $74.88 overnight, currently trading at $74.63. Softer China and EU PMI data weighed some on prices, though solid support remains in place at $74.00. Traders say a N.Y. close under $74.00 will be needed to bring the $70.00 level into focus.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI preview:
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08:10 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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07:54 EDTBofA/Merrill Mexican economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:39 EDTFormer Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to speak at conference
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07:37 EDTFDIC holds a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking
Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking will provide an update on the FDIC's community bank initiatives with new research on branch banking in the U.S. presented by the Division of Insurance and Research is being held at FDIC Arlington, VA on November 20 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTSEC holds SEC Government-Business Forum on Small Business Capital Formation
The SEC holds the SEC Government-Business Forum on Small Business Capital Formation where topics will include secondary market liquidity for securities of small businesses and the definition of accredited investor at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on November 20 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:27 EDTFDA to hold a meeting of the Science Board
The Science Board will be provided with progress reports from two subcommittees, the Commissioner’s Fellowship Program Evaluation Subcommittee and the Science Moving Forward Subcommittee in a meeting to be held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on November 20 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:25 EDTFederal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo is keynote speaker at conference
Federal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo is the keynote speaker at The Clearing House Annual Conference 2014 being held in New York on November 20 at 7:45 am.
07:18 EDTFutures lower as European data disappoints
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07:17 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
dbAccess Japan Conference is being held in London, England on November 20-21.
07:16 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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06:55 EDTFX Update:
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06:31 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 20
Globex S&P futures are recently down 7.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.07%, DAX down 0.69%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $74.33, natural gas up 2.29%, gold at $1195 an ounce, copper down 0.87%.
06:20 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:10 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY rallied to a new seven-year high
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November 19, 2014
21:40 EDTA 5.3 earthquake registered in Japan
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21:05 EDTChina's manufacturing PMI (HSBC) fell to 50.0 in November
China's manufacturing PMI (HSBC) fell to 50.0 in November in the preliminary or "flash" report from the final 50.4 in October. The output index fell to contractionary 49.5 in November from a final 50.7 in October. The pull-back in the index to the 50.0 contraction/expansion level underpins projections that the growth pace of China's economy is slowing. While some of the slowing is intentional on the part of the government as it seeks to transition China to a more balanced growth composition, the risk remains that unintentional slowing may become more pronounced.
20:40 EDTJapan's exports rose 9.6% y/y in October
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20:39 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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17:27 EDTWeek of 11/28 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:43 EDTFed members initially had different views on 'considerable time' phrase
All but one member of the Federal Open Market Committee ended up supporting the committee's statement on the outlook for interest rates following its last meeting, although some expressed concerns initially, the FOMC's minutes released today stated. Committee members initially disagreed on whether to reiterate that it would probably be appropriate to maintain the current 0%-0.25% target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of the asset purchase program in October, especially if inflation continues to run below the committee's 2% longer run goal. Some participants favored eliminating the statement, saying that it could be misconstrued to suggest that the FOMC's actions would not be based on incoming data. Other participants felt that the "considerable time" phrase was useful in conveying the committee's outlook, while a couple felt that removing the phrase could signal a significant change in the Fed's policy, resulting in a tightening of financial conditions. A couple of others felt that the current language could suggest an earlier increase in rates was likely to be appropriate. In the end, however, all but one member supported maintaining the considerable time phrase. Meanwhile, "a number" of members said that it could be helpful for the committee to issue further clarification of the bank's approach to interest rates soon. Members generally agreed that the economy had made enough progress to justify concluding the Fed's asset purchase program at the end of October. On the economy, participants felt that the unemployment rate would continue to decline over the medium term, and anticipated that inflation would be held down by energy price declines in the near-term. However, members felt that inflation would increase towards the committee's 2% goal in coming years, although a few said that it might run below the Fed's objective for quite some time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. A number of participants said that economic growth might be slower than expected over the medium term if overseas economies or the financial situation deteriorates significantly.
14:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: there wasn't much to be gleaned from the FOMC minutes
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14:35 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell broadly
FX Action: The dollar fell broadly after the release of the FOMC minutes, though quickly snapped back to pre-minutes levels. EUR-USD spiked up to stop at 1.2600, before falling back under 1.2560, as USD-JPY dell to 117.50 from 117.70, before heading back to 117.75. With not much news in the release, the knee-jerk dollar reaction petered out in a hurry, and on net, the greenback is just a touch lower than it was.
14:20 EDTWeek of 11/28 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC minutes: the tone was mixed and there isn't much guidance
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed from highs
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13:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's research director Altig says July is the time to start thinking
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13:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar has steadied
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13:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put buying picked up
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12:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: ERBD's $1 B 5-year global
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11:45 EDTFOMC Minutes preview:
FOMC Minutes preview: the minutes from the October 28, 29 policy meeting will reveal the mixed views of the Committee, and hence could suggest a less hawkish bent than the policy statement. That was the case in the September minutes when the mentioned the weaker conditions in Europe and the stronger dollar militated against the hawkish tone in the statement. Remember the FOMC ended QE last month, as widely expected, and also retained the "considerable time" language. It also upgraded its outlook on the labor market and inflation, which may have been done more to appease the two hawkish dissenters (who indeed moved to the sidelines). The minutes are likely to show the frustration in boosting inflation to the 2% target level, and as Kocherlakota has warned, some fears over lost credibility. Interestingly, the Fed discounted the downdraft in energy and commodity prices in the policy statement while appealing to stable inflation expectations, making the distinction between "market-based" prices measures and expectations data. There shouldn't be qualms about the improved labor market outlook. The minutes should again touch on the slower growth in Europe and the stronger dollar, as was a key in the September minutes, since those conditions haven't changed over the past six weeks. The markets will continue look to the minutes for hints on the timing of the first rate hike, as well as when the "considerable time" phrase could be removed -- maybe December?
11:10 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97
Oil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $73.97 lows from $94.50 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 1.0 M bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 M bbls actually rose 1.0 M bbls, while distillate stocks were down 2.1 M bbls, versus expectations for a 1.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 91.2% from 90.1%. Support remained intact under $94, with prices subsequently rebounding to pre-data level.
11:10 EDTRumors of a "NY think tank" report on Japan
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 14
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to climb
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10:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: trade is "pretty quiet"
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: weakness in European bonds is weighing on Treasuries
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some larger block trades
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09:51 EDTJPMorgan's Japanese strategist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Japanese Research & Strategist Jesper Koll discusses Japanese equity market strategy and snap elections on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 20 at 9 am.
09:47 EDTJPMorgan healthcare services analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Services & Managed Care Analyst Lake discusses hospitals and the Supreme Court of the United States on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 19 at 11 am.
09:44 EDTFutures drift lower, leading to lower open for broader market
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1356
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1356, highs of the week, just ahead of parked offers at 1.1360. The soft commodities backdrop has been an anchor on the CAD of late, and oil prices are likely to remain soft, at least until next week's OPEC meeting, where there appears to be a slight chance the cartel will cut production. In the meantime, USD-CAD may bide its time between 1.13 and 1.14.
09:36 EDTJPMorgan homebuilding analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:20 EDTThe small 2.8% October U.S. housing starts drop
The small 2.8% October U.S. housing starts drop from an upwardly-revised September level was roughly in line with assumptions, alongside a 4.8% permits pop that modestly beat estimates to leave an encouraging report overall. The positive tilt was fed by strength in the important single-family component, and a welcome bounce in the critical starts under construction series, as well as starts in the South, after a poor Q3 performance. Starts under construction, which drive new home construction, rose 1.4% in October after a 0.1% (was 0.4%) September rise and a 0.1% (was -0.3%) August figure. Analysts haven't seen a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Unfortunately, today's report will likely be followed by a big weather-hit in November, and possibly through the winter overall if the polar vortex proves as stubborn this winter as last. More generally, the single-digit pace of recovery in the 2014 housing market has proven disappointing on net, as the sector faces an ongoing headwind from mortgage market dysfunction and investor caution, and weather-depressed Q4 figures would add to the disappointment.
09:15 EDTFed under fire from both Left and Right:
Fed under fire from both Left and Right: according to WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, "What's striking this week is how much pressure the Fed is also facing from the left, particularly the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, has introduced legislation that would require that the New York Fed president be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, subjecting the powerful position to a political process which it now escapes. Under current law, the president of the New York Fed is chosen by its own board of directors, with heavy consultation from Washington's congressionally confirmed Board of Governors. Meantime, Senate Democrats Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, and Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, have penned a commentary for the WSJ's editorial pages calling on the President to nominate tough bank supervisors to fill two empty seats on the Board of Governors. Stars may be aligning for a new bipartisan challenge to Fed governance and its oversight of the nation's banking system."
09:00 EDTU.S. equities turned lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased from highs
Treasury Action: yields eased from highs briefly after the drop in housing starts that caught the markets slightly offguard, though permits were sharply higher and it seems unlikely that too much will be read into this data. The T-note yield continues to probe the 2.35% area, well up from 2.31% Asian lows, but below the 2.38-2.40% threshold that has put a lid on yields in November. The 2s-10s spread is out to +183 bp again.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts fell 2.8% to 1.009 M in October
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08:15 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
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08:08 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "Opportunities for a Private and Competitive Sustainable Flood Insurance Market" with SVP Gray of the WNC Insurance Services on November 19 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
08:06 EDTFederal Open Market Committee issues minutes of meeting
FOMC releases minutes from October 28-29 meeting on November 19 at 2 pm.
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $74.80/bbl
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08:04 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York Vice President to speak at conference
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08:03 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold luncheon meeting
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08:02 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a meeting
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08:01 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a luncheon
Glenn Reynolds,CEO and a Co-Founder of CreditSights, participates in a Luncheon Meeting entitled, "High Yield--Risk vs Return" being held in Philadelphia on November 19 at 12 pm.
08:00 EDTThe SEC to hold a meeting
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07:57 EDTFDA to hold a meeting
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:53 EDTVertical Research Partners to hold a conference
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07:50 EDTFX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed
FX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed, the former amid commodity price declines and the latter following the BoJ policy statement and dovish tone of Kuroda's post-meeting press conference. Both currencies lost ground to the euro and dollar, among others. Amid this backdrop, EUR-USD traded higher amid general euro strength, with EUR-JPY extending further into six-year high territory above 147.50, while EUR-USD breached yesterday's peak in making a high of 1.2547, though upside progress subsequently stalled. EUR-CHF remained heavy, holding the line little more than 10 pips above the SNB's 'no-go' marker at 1.2000. A Bloomberg survey found a consensus expectation for the SNB to maintain the franc's cap until 2017, which is when the ECB is expected to start exiting from ultra-accommodative policies.
07:47 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTMitsubishi UFJ to hold a conference
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07:41 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 4.9%
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries edged lower overnight
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07:21 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:15 EDTFutures quiet following yesterday’s record close
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07:13 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTUBS to hold a conference
2014 India Conference is being held in Mumbai, India on November 19-21.
07:07 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
2014 Global Foreign Exchange Workshop is being held in Washington, D.C. on November 19.
06:45 EDTFX Update: The Aussie and yen underperformed
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06:05 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 19
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.32%, DAX up 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $74.69, natural gas up 0.47%, gold at $1198 an ounce, copper up 0.28%.
03:05 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish
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03:00 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish
BoJ Governor Kuroda sounded dovish in his post-meeting press conference, which of course was to be expected following last month's out-of-the-blue expansion of the QQE program. He said that "there is a chance core CPI will fall below one percent," and for how long "depends on various conditions at the time," and that "last month's monetary easing was purely aimed at ensuring that our price target will be achieved." At the same time he downplayed the unexpected negative outcome of Q3 GDP by stressing that impact of the April sales tax hike "is subsiding as a whole," and that "companies are maintaining their upbeat investment stance against the background of robust profits." He avoided criticising the government's decision to delay a second sales tax hike, but noted that "it's important for Japan as a nation to maintain market trust in its finances."
02:05 EDTFX Action: Another day, another seven-year high in USD-JPY
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00:05 EDTJapan all industry index rose 1.0% m/m in September
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November 18, 2014
23:35 EDTBoJ maintained it ultra easing posture,
BoJ maintained it ultra easing posture, as expected, following the surprise stimulus in October. However, the Board voted 8-1 in favor of the decision this time, compared to the 5-4 tally in October. The BoJ statement noted that "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," though that seems a bit outdated after the contraction in Q3 GDP which put the nation into recession. Core CPI is expected to hold around its current level for the time being, according to the policy statement, while inflation expectations are seen rising longer term. However, it was also indicated that the potential for prolonged low-inflation in Europe is a risk, The Bank will monitor risks and adjust policy as appropriate.
22:26 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 10:00
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22:26 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 09:30
16:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $55.6 B in net U.S. assets
U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $55.6 B in net U.S. assets in September, from a downwardly revised $44.8 B in August (was $74.5 B). However, overseas accounts also purchased $164.3 B in net long-term assets versus August's $52.1 B. There was relatively heavy demand across asset classes, with accounts nearly doubling their purchases of Treasury coupons, buying $48.1 B versus $25.7 B previously. Foreigners bought $20.7 B in corporate bonds after dumping $7.3 B in August, while they also picked up $21.0 B in agency bonds, and $4.4 B in stocks. Foreign official accounts reduced their holdings of Treasury coupon s by $17.4 B, with Japan the largest seller at $9.0 B, followed by Thailand (-$7.3 B) and Belgium (-$6.0 B). France and oil exporters were the biggest buyers of Treasuries in September at $13.3 B and $11.9 B, respectively.
16:03 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
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16:03 EDTWeek of 11/29 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:03 EDTWeek of 11/29 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTFOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory
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13:50 EDTFed's Kocherlakota reiterated he doesn't see inflation hitting 2% until 2018
Fed's Kocherlakota reiterated he doesn't see inflation hitting 2% until 2018, largely repeating prior comments in today's speech titled "Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy." He believes the FOMC should be clear that its inflation objective is "symmetric." And secondly he believes the FOMC "should consider articulating a benchmark two-year time horizon for returning inflation to the 2% goal. Remember, Kocherlakota dissented at the October 29 meeting because of the inflation outlook as he thought the policy statement was consistent with other interpretations of price stability, not just the two-year time horizon.
13:45 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads narrowed a bit today
U.S. dollar swap spreads narrowed a bit today, though the movement has been pretty glacial like the rest of the markets so far. Heavy corporate issuance continues this week and may be contributing to near-term widening, though that may relent by the end of the week, according to sources. The 2-year swap spread narrowed fractionally to +21.5 bp (mid) from earlier wides near +21.8 bp, compared to +22 bp levels earlier in the week. This was a little more obvious on the 5-year spread, which hit 2-month narrows of +12.25 bp (mid) before nudging back out to +12.75 bp compared to October 16 wides of +21.5 bp. Likewise, the 10-year swap spread probed 2-month narrows of +11.25 bp (mid) vs +12.25 bp session wides, also well in from +16.75 bp in mid-October. Against this trend there has been some talk of "fast money" wideners as well, but time will tell.
12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been range bound
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12:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's another heavy issuance day
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
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11:41 EDTJPMorgan life science tools analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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11:40 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction was ok
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: block and vol trade on 5-year futures
Treasury Option Action: block and vol trade on 5-year futures was cited, with the block sale of 7.3k in December 119-18.25 5-year futures and the sale of 1.5k in February 118 put/119.5 call strangles (volatility) as well. Yet December 5s are 2.2-ticks firmer near 119-172 compared to their 119-20 to 119-155 range.
10:35 EDTU.S. equities have snapped to life
U.S. equities have snapped to life following the bounce in NAHB, while also piggy-backing solid gains in Europe after the firm German ZEW reading ahead of the open. Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.15% higher and the German DAX extended gains to 1.6% on the day. The major U.S. indices are 0.4-0.5% firmer after a flat start. Among the top gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +2.0%, Intel +1.4% and Boeing +1.0%, while Home Depot is at the bottom of the heap -0.9%.
10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly quiet trade
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
Fed Policy Outlook: better than expected PPI and NAHB data should not alter views on the rate trajectory. While the improvement is good news for policymakers (it's certainly better than stagnation or erosion) neither report is indicative of sufficient strength to get the FOMC excited. In the case of PPI, the strength of the numbers was in service prices and with the ongoing slide in energy and other commodities, a meaningful pick-up in prices isn't likely. The tepid recovery in housing has also been a thorn in the Fed's side, and while homebuilder sentiment improved to the high end of its recent range, it's still far below pre-financial crisis highs that were in the 70s. Market consensus for a rate hike continues to shift from mid- to late 2015. Given the deterioration in Asian growth, the stagnation in Europe, weakness in prices, and very limited gains in wages, not to mention the dovish make-up of the 2015 FOMC, a hike in the first half of 2015 seems unlikely.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain on neutral footing
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder index rose 4 points to 58 in November
U.S. NAHB homebuilder index rose 4 points to 58 in November, nearly fully unwinding the 5 point drop to 54 in October. Note the 59 from September was the highest since November 2005 when the index hit 61, and compares to a cyclical high of 72 from June 2005, and an all time peak of 78 from December 1998. The low reading was 8 from January 2009. The present single family sales index rebounded 5 points to 62 after falling 6 points previously to 57, while the future sales index edged up 2 points to 66 from 64. The index of prospective buyer traffic increased 4 points to 45 from 41.
10:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
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10:08 EDTE-Commerce Retail Sales E- Q/Q Change SAAR data reported
E-Commerce Retail Sales E- Q/Q Change SAAR up 4.0% for the quarter
10:08 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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09:45 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the housing market index (HMI) is seen rising 2-points to 56 in November from 54. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:42 EDTQuiet open suggests another lackluster session
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: the market remains range-bound
Treasury Action: the market remains range-bound with the 10-year yield tightly confined to the 2.28% to 2.38% zone for now. It's not clear what will break the market out, probably one of the unforecastable events that crop up on occasion. A less than hawkish slant to the FOMC Minutes tomorrow my help knock yields to the lower end of the range. Curve flattening trades, softer inflation, and prospects for further BoJ and ECB stimulus also point to lower yields. But, the omnipresent thought that the Fed will start normalizing rates next year should help put a floor under rates. Sources also say current market positioning doesn't argue for much of a decline in yields -- the JPMorgan "all client" survey showed a rise in net longs and a fall in net shorts, with the latter at the lowest level since April.
09:05 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. October PPI rise with a 0.4% core price pop
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1305
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1305 after the U.S. PPI data, rallying modestly from 1.1290. The pairing based at 1.1260 in London, and made its way higher into the North American open as oil prices gave back overnight gains. WTI is trading at $75.30, after peaking at $76.44 earlier. Equity futures meanwhile, are struggling to hold on to modest gains, also supportive of USD-CAD currently. Support remains at 1.1260, while Monday's 1.1328 high steps in as interim resistance.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are largely unchanged
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09:00 EDTU.S. TIC preview:
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
FX Action: The dollar moved higher across the board following the hotter PPI outcome, though reaction was limited overall. EUR-USD dipped to 1.2505 from 1.2525, as USD-JPY touched 116.66, up from 116.50. Equity futures managed to move modestly higher, while yields edged up perhaps a basis point.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields bounced from lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. PPI rose 0.2% in October with the core rate climbing 0.4%
U.S. PPI rose 0.2% in October with the core rate climbing 0.4%, versus September's data showing a 0.1% dip in the headline and an unchanged reading on the core. The annual rate slowed to a 1.5% y/y pace last month, versus 1.6% y/y, while the core rate was 1.8% y/y versus 1.6% y/y. Goods prices fell 0.4%, a 4th consecutive monthly decline, with energy prices dropping 3.0% and food prices rising 1.0%. Service sector prices edged up 0.5%. The data are hotter than expected but are having minimal impact on the markets currently.
08:32 EDTFutures show little reaction to producer prices report
Stock futures remain quiet following the release of the producer prices report for October. Prices rose 0.2% during the month versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%, while the core reading, which excludes food and energy was up 0.4% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:25 EDTMinneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota
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08:15 EDTU.S. PPI preview:
U.S. PPI preview: overall-PPI is expected to fall 0.3% in October with a 0.1% core index figure. Forecast risk is downward, as analysts may see continued weakness in some commodity prices. Indeed, analysts expect energy prices to be a drag on the month as WTI prices declined 10%. preview for more.
08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded to $76.44/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded to $76.44/bbl highs overnight, before slipping back to current $75.55 levels. Increased speculation that OPEC will cut production when it meets next week in Vienna has been supportive of prices most recently, though traders now say a failure by the cartel to curb production could lead to another quick sell-off, with the $70/bbl level targeted.
08:02 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index edged up 0.2%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index edged up 0.2% in the week ended November 15 after a 1.5% rebound in the week before. The y/y pace accelerated slightly to a 2.2% y/y clip from 2.1% y/y. The drop in gas prices was noted as a source of support for sales, which should make for a good holiday shopping season.
07:59 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:58 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
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07:56 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:41 EDTSusquehanna to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
Asia Infrastructure & Transportation Corp Day is being held in Hong Kong on November 18-19.
07:26 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTFutures suggest another lackluster session
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar was mixed
FX Update: The dollar was mixed, holding strong versus the yen while trading lower against the euro following strong data out of the Eurozone. USD-JPY logged a new seven-year peak at 117.06 on EBS, which by our reckoning surpassed yesterday's high by one pip, after Japanese PM Abe announced a postponement in a scheduled sales tax hike while calling for a snap election. The pair subsequently saw some whippy price which left an intraday low at 116.40. EUR-USD, meanwhile rallied from sub-1.25 levels to an intraday high at 1.2540, which reverses more than three quarters of yesterday's decline. The euro was bid following a much stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence, which came in at 11.5 in the November from -3.6 in the previous month. AUD-USD logged a two-day low of 0.8682. The RBA minutes to the November meeting repeated that a period of rate stability is likely the most prudent course, and that the currency remains overvalued despite recent depreciation, remaining above "most estimates of its fundamental values." EUR-CHF continued to trade heavily, holding about 10-15 ticks above the SNB's 1.2000 franc cap.
06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 18
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05:49 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar consolidated
FX Update: The dollar consolidated during the pre-European session in Asia. EUR-USD settled around the 1.2470 mark after drifting up from around 1.2450. There was little appetite for follow-through euro selling following yesterday's remarks by ECB's Draghi, who said the monetary policy will take time to reach the real economy and suggested that the central bank can do more once policy makers have implemented structural reforms. USD-JPY carved out a 116.42-116.78 range in Tokyo, holding below the 117.05 seven-year peak see on Monday. Japanese policymakers continued to chew on trade-offs between stimulus, deficit spending and tax hike delays. Finance Minister Aso warned that raising the sales tax is unavoidable, regardless of timing as it is important to maintain market credibility with Japan's finances, and that ultra-loose monetary policy was about supporting fiscal reform. AUD-USD settled in the low 0.87s. The RBA minutes to the November meeting repeated that a period of rate stability is likely the most prudent course, and that the currency remains overvalued despite recent depreciation, remaining above "most estimates of its fundamental values." Elsewhere, EUR-CHF continued to trade heavily, holding about 15 ticks above the SNB's 1.2000 franc cap.
02:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar consolidated
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November 17, 2014
21:25 EDTChina's foreign direct investment rose 1.3% y/y in October
China's foreign direct investment rose 1.3% y/y in October, slowing somewhat from the 1.9% y/y rebound in September. September's gain followed large declines in July (-17.0% y/y) and August (-14.0% y/y). The year-to-date pace contracted 1.2% y/y, and was a 4th consecutive year-to-date decline. Meanwhile, outbound non-financial investment was up 17.8% y/y for the year-to-date, versus the 21.6% y/y pace for the Jan-Sep period. The slowdown in investment may be a reflection of investor fears over the slowing economy.
20:35 EDTJapan leaders continue to chew on trade-offs
Japan leaders continue to chew on trade-offs between stimulus, deficit spending and tax hike delays, with Economic Minister Amari saying it is up to PM Abe and Finance Minister Aso to decide what to do about the primary budget deficit target. The PM has apparently not given any specific instructions about the size of a potential stimulus package yet. Aso right on cue warned that raising the sales tax is unavoidable, regardless of timing as it is important to maintain market credibility with Japan's finances. Indeed, ultra-loose monetary policy is based on Japan pursuing fiscal reform. Snap elections by December 14 would also make it hard to put together the state budget for next year by year-end. The fiscal dilemma continues, soon to be followed by political drama and more BoJ hand-wringing. Meanwhile, the Nikkei +1.95% has clawed by 2/3rds of yesterday losses on the back-to-back negative GDP print, while USD-JPY has stabilized near 116.60.
15:29 EDTNomura retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTEmerging Asia Central Banks to Take it Easy:
Emerging Asia Central Banks to Take it Easy: Emerging Asia's central banks have shifted to easier stances or held steady amid slower growth and rising uncertainty in the region. Japan's hefty Q3 GDP miss is a fresh addition to downside risks for Asia's economies, adding to the downdraft from a new normal of slower growth in China. Against this backdrop, the outlook is for either additional accommodation or steady policy through the first half of next year.
13:20 EDTFOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory
FOMC Minutes awaited for more clarity on the rate trajectory, though analysts doubt the report will satisfy. The mixed tone evident between recent FOMC policy statements, the Minutes, and Fedspeak don't suggest a lot of consistency. And the vagaries of the data, as well as global events, are keeping policymakers generally preferring the sidelines. There is ongoing market debate over the tone of the Minutes, and analysts lean on the side of a more dovish take versus the slightly more hawkish spin from the October 29 policy statement. Analysts suspect most FOMC participants will suggest more frustration, if not concern over the soft price trends, albeit while acknowledging the improvement in the job market. This would be akin to the Minutes to the September FOMC, which also leaned to the dovish side by noting concerns over weakness in Europe and the impact of the stronger dollar. Of course the leadership on the FOMC, Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley remains dovish. And there was a dovish dissent at the October meeting, all of which suggests a more bond-friendly tone.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has held relatively steady
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
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11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put spread demand
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10:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1328
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back to highs
Treasury Action: yields snapped back to highs with those of Bunds following ECB Draghi's remarks that time is need to assess stimulus, though he also continued to hold open the prospect of further action if needed. The moves coincided with a slump in the euro to session lows near 1.2450. The T-note yield cleared 2.33% as the Bund yield topped 0.80% again and coincided with some earlier demand for volatility and a small rebound in stocks from lows with USD-JPY. Yet the 2.38-2.41% zone remains an impediment for an upside break this month. The 2s-10s spread has steepened back to +182 bp from +179 bp earlier.
10:00 EDTThe 0.1% October U.S. industrial production drop
The 0.1% October U.S. industrial production drop undershot estimates, following modest revisions, with weakness due to unexpected drops of 0.9% for mining and 0.7% for utilities, alongside the expected 0.2% manufacturing rise despite a big vehicle assembly rate drop to an 11.1 M rate. The October drop was capped by a 0.6% business equipment rise. Industrial production is poised for an estimated 4% utility-boosted growth rate in Q4, thanks to an expected November lift from cold weather, after rates of 3.3% (was 3.2%) in Q3 and 5.7% (was 5.5%) in Q2. Analysts have a fairly stable 2014 aggregate output climb despite big gyrations in utility and vehicle output. More generally, analysts've seen 1%-9% quarterly rates since the start of the expansion. Analysts've seen a factory outperformance of GDP through this expansion, and particularly in recent quarters. Analysts expect industrial production growth of 4.0% in 2014 after slower growth of 2.9% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2012. Analysts expect a restrained 2.2% growth rate for GDP in 2014 that nearly matches prior rates of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.
09:47 EDTMarket tone sluggish at open, averages dip in early trade
Stock futures traded below fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. The weakness was attributed to data out of Japan which suggested the country has slipped into a recession. Manufacturing data in the NY region and industrial production across the U.S. during October both came in weaker than expected, giving little help to a market that is looking for a catalyst to help it move up from the Dow and S&P's near-record levels. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 1 point and the S&P is down 1 point.
09:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased a touch against the yen
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields stalled out
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, with capacity at 78.9%
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09:19 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 10:00
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09:16 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some demand for volatility
Treasury Option Action: some demand for volatility to start the week came in the form of a purchase of 5k in December 126/127 strangles on 10-year futures, according to sources. December 10s are flat near 126-22 compared to a 127-00 to 126-195 range on Globex.
09:10 EDTU.S. industrial production preview:
U.S. industrial production preview: industrial production is expected to increase 0.5% in September, after falling 0.1% in July. Forecast risk is upward, as firm employment data could lift the headline. Capacity utilization should tick up to 79.0% from 78.8% in August, which is above the all-time low of 67.3% in June '09 but below the last cyclical peak of 81.3% in December of '07. preview.
09:05 EDTMore Fedspeak is due from Chicago Fed dove Evans
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09:00 EDTFed's Powell said the "time to raise rates is coming, but it's not here yet,"
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are underwater
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained stuck near lows
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08:50 EDTEmpire State sentiment bounced as expected
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08:50 EDTFX Action: Little FX reaction to the Empire State outcome
FX Action: Little FX reaction to the Empire State outcome, which bounced nearly in-line with market expectations. EUR-USD continues to trade either side of 1.2500 in narrow ranges, while USD-JPY remains over 116.00, after falling to 115.46 lows after the negative Japan GDP print overnight. Equity futures remain underwater into the Wall Street open, while yields remain near session lows.
08:45 EDTBofA/Merrill LatAm oil and gas analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index rose 4 points to 10.2 in November
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08:35 EDTU.S. data has little effect on futures
Stock futures are off their lows but remain in negative territory following the release of the Empire Manufacturing report. The report had a reading of 10.16 versus expectations of 12.0. It had little effect on the market as the data out of Japan which showed that the country entered a recession continues to weigh on markets here and around the world.
08:33 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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08:15 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude prices were capped
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are higher
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07:39 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion on financial stability
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up some in London trade, taking EUR-USD back under 1.2500, and USD-JPY up over 116.30, from post-Japan GDP lows of 115.46. The shock negative GDP print initially saw USD-JPY rally to trend highs over 117.00, though as Tokyo stocks sank, the yen recovered some ground. The U.S. calendar reveals the November Empire State index at 8:30 EST, and October industrial production, at 9:15 EST.
07:30 EDTFX Update: The new week opened with a bout of volatility
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07:28 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Chicago speaks at conference
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07:26 EDTJapan recession provides headwind for U.S.
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open as the week’s trading gets set to begin. The early weakness is being blamed on data out of Japan which showed that its economy entered a recession. The Japanese market had its biggest one day loss since July, and the news has had a ripple effect around the world. Today U.S. investors will be watching the Empire Manufacturing report and Industrial production and capacity utilization reports for clues about our own economy's outlook. .
07:25 EDTFX Update: The new week opened with a bout of volatility
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07:20 EDTWeek Ahead - A House Divided:
Week Ahead - A House Divided: Next big item on the U.S. docket is the FOMC Minutes with many doves seeking a more patient approach to rate hikes, in contrast to the hawks who want to see a faster pace of normalization. At the weekend G20 meeting Russia will provide a side-show, as actions continue to speak louder than words on the Ukraine. Japan's GDP is expected to rebound, while RBA minutes are out after and the ECB will keep close tabs on confidence indicators due. Also BoE MPC minutes should reflect the dovish shift already evident, while the SNB could be provoked into action if the Swissie firms through 1.20 euros.
07:13 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference is being held in Hong Kong on November 17-18.
07:10 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago to hold a conference
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06:52 EDTEuro zone trade surplus surged in September, Reuters says
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06:47 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 17
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06:35 EDTStocks decline after Japan GDP miss, Reuters says
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05:55 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The JPY rebounded from fresh trend lows
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November 15, 2014
18:23 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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18:23 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
October Leading Indicators will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
18:23 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:23 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
October Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.028M
18:23 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
October Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
18:23 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:23 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
October PPI-FD will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [0.1]% for the month
18:23 EDTWeek of 11/26 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
18:23 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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18:23 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
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18:23 EDTWeek of 11/17 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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November 14, 2014
18:04 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 20:30
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18:04 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 13:30
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18:04 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 07:45
18:04 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 13:30
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market finished on the front foot Friday after wrestling with a tight range for much the week. October retail sales beat very low expectations, which accounted for the brief spike in yields to session highs, but it was all downhill from there as stocks couldn't really hold their bid and the dollar retraced its bullish steps a bit. There was a follow-up gain on U. Michigan sentiment, but short-covering Treasuries quickly set in anyway ahead of the weekend. Fed dove Bullard continued to backtrack, arguing that low inflation doesn't justify holding rates near zero.
14:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:40 EDTFedspeak resumes next week with Chicago Fed dove Evans
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11:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are consolidating
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD moved under 1.1310,
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: the next big item on the docket is the FOMC Minutes
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11:05 EDTMore from dove Bullard: he is sticking with his forecast
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10:45 EDTThe 0.3% September U.S. business inventory rise beat estimates
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10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish put trade
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending November 7
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10:28 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:25 EDTThe November Michigan sentiment pop to an 89.4 new cycle-high
The November Michigan sentiment pop to an 89.4 new cycle-high extended the October climb to an 86.9 prior high from 84.6 in September, as the index has now spent two months above last year's 85.1 peak from July. Michigan sentiment likely faces a boost in the final November report, given an average upward revision of 0.8 points through 2014, though this is roughly half of the 1.8 average boost in 2013. Analysts expect a final November reading in the 90 area. The 2014 climb in Michigan sentiment has closed the gap to the growth path for consumption and payrolls. Confidence likely benefited from the usual post-election boost, alongside the general 2014 lift from rising equity and home prices. Confidence faces headwinds from the geopolitical backdrop, limited credit availability, and Obamacare. Analysts've seen an upward tilt in most confidence indicators into Q4, as most measures are now above mid-2013 levels. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 46.4 in November from 45.2 in the prior two months, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The RBC-IPSOS index fell, however to 51.7 in November from a 53.2 cycle-high in October. Analysts expect a consumer confidence rise to a 96.0 new cycle-high in November from a 94.5 current cycle-high in October.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields shrugged off the bounce in U. Michigan
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in September
U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in September from a revised 0.1% gain in August (was 0.2%). Business sales were unchanged after sliding 0.5% previously (revised from -0.4%). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.30 (August was revised up from 1.29). The only new information in the report is from retailer inventories, which increased 0.3%. The data will help fine-tune GDP forecasts but won't impact the markets.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher
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10:05 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment improved to 89.4 in the preliminary November read
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10:03 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
September Business Inventories up 0.3% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
10:03 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:55 EDTMarket opens relatively quietly, lower in early trade
Stock futures were quiet throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively quiet open for the broader market. The Dow hit a new all-time high yesterday, its 25th record for 2014. Oil prices continue to move lower and now stands at a four year low and questions remain about the effect of the low cost of oil. Certainly it will help the consumer, but the ripple effect in the economy continues to be debated. In early trading, the Dow is down 10 points, the Nasdaq is down 8 points and the S&P is relatively flat.
09:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is moderate today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is moderate today. But the Treasury market is still suffering a bit from indigestion from a heavy calendar this week that looks to total about $35 B, along with the $66 B in the Treasury refunding. Headlining today is a $3 B 2-year global deal from FHLB. Newell Rubbermaid has a benchmark 5- and 10-year offering. And, First Tennessee Bank is selling $300 M in 5-year notes.
09:50 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
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09:45 EDTU. Michigan sentiment preview:
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09:30 EDTFed's Bullard said low inflation does not justify zero rates
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09:20 EDTFed rate view is being pulled in two directions
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09:15 EDTThe 0.3% retail sales headline and ex-auto gains
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities marginally padded gains
U.S. equities marginally padded gains after the retail sales came in above low expectations and trade prices were dragged lower by tumbling energy prices. The Dow rose 15-points, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 3-points firmer in pre-open trade. Fresh trend lows in the yen helped prop up Japan's N-225 0.56%, supported by ongoing speculation over sales tax hike delay and stimulus, though Europe is trading mixed despite somewhat-firmer-but-still-limp GDP returns in Europe. The Euro Stoxx 50 has reclaimed shallow positive territory from out of the red earlier. Merger talks between Halliburton and Baker Hughes boosted their shares, while Geron leapt 37% after licensing a cancer drug to J&J. Hertz sank 1.5% after cutting its 2014 outlook and confirming cost cutting. Up next are U. Michigan and inventory data to round out the week.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD initially fell
FX Action: USD-CAD initially fell after the mix of data, where stronger Canadian manufacturing data took the spotlight. The pairing traded into 1.1360 from over 1.1380, though has since moved back over 1.1380. The modest rebound in oil prices has lent some support to the CAD, though most seem to think this morning's oil rally is nothing more than pre-weekend short covering related. USD-CAD support is seen into 1.1350, with resistance remaining at 1.1400.
08:50 EDTU.S. import prices dropped 1.3% in October, with export prices down 1.0%
U.S. import prices dropped 1.3% in October, with export prices down 1.0%. The 0.5% drop in September import prices was revised to -0.6% (and August was nudged to -0.8% from -0.6%). Also revised down was the 0.2% decline in export prices for September, which is now -0.4%. Petroleum import prices plunged 6.9% from -2.6% (revised from -2.8%). Petroleum prices have posted big declines since July. Excluding petroleum, import prices dipped 0.1% from -0.1% in September (revised from -0.2%). Industrial supplies import prices dropped 4.1%. Import prices with Canada fell 2.3%, but rose 0.1% with China. For exports, ag prices fell 2.1% after a 1.7% decline previously (revised from -0.9%). Food, beverage export prices were down 2.1% versus -1.5% (revised from -0.9%). Excluding ag, export prices slid 0.9% from -0.2% previously. Trade prices were weaker than expected, though that's in keeping with the slide in global prices in general.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, as did the ex-auto component
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, as did the ex-auto component. And there were no revisions to the September data including a 0.3% decline on the headline, and a 0.2% dip for the ex-auto figure. Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, retail sales rose 0.6% from 0.1% (revised from unchanged). Gas station sales dropped 1.5% last month. Electronic store sales fell 1.6%. Motor vehicles and parts salas rebounded 0.5% after a 1.2% September decline (revised from -0.8%). Non-store retailer sales increased 1.9%. Sporting goods climbed 1.2%. Furniture and building material sales posted small gains. Health and personal care spending rose 0.7%. Data are better than expected and should underpin strength in equities.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up to highs
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the sharp decline in import prices, and the better than forecast headline retail sales data. EUR-USD fell under 1.2410 from over 1.2440, as USD-JPY ramped up to fresh trend highs over 116.75 from near 116.50. Yields edged slightly higher, as equity futures bounced, turning marginal losses into slight gains.
08:38 EDTFutures move higher following economic data
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08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from St. Louis Fed dove Bullard
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08:15 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
U.S. retail sales preview: retail sales are expected to remain unchanged in October, with the ex-autos aggregate remaining unchanged as well (medians 0.2% for both). This compares to a recent high of 2.2% in March '10, and a low of -2.6% in September '09. Forecast risk is downward, however, as analysts expect a drag from falling gasoline prices and slower chain store sales. preview for more.
08:15 EDTU.S. trade prices preview:
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08:05 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect factory shipments to rise 1.0% m/m in September (median same at +1.0%) after the 3.3% plunge in August. Supportive of our projection, export values rose 1.1% in September after a 2.5% drop in August. An as-expected bounce in manufacturing would further underpin the view that the pull-back in manufacturing and exports during August was temporary. The August export decline was in large part due to a shift in the annual retooling schedule, which was likely also a culprit behind the weakness in August manufacturing.
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude touched trend lows
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07:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar was mixed
FX Update: The dollar was mixed, posting fresh trend highs against the underperforming yen and sterling, while seeing some losses against the euro, which found an underpinning on forecast-beating Eurozone GDP data. Flash Q3 GDP Eurozone came in stronger than expected at 0.2% q/q, with Q2 revised up to 0.1% from 0.0%, helping EUR-USD lift to the mid-to-upper 1.24s. USD-JPY punched out a fresh six-year peak at 116.40 as the dollar's yield advantage pushed toward recent highs at 190 bp at the 10-year level between in the U.S. T-note and JGB. Sterling dived to fresh lows, with Cable making a new 13-month low at 1.5654 and EUR-GBP reaching new three-week highs above 0.7950. The move extended the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which trimmed growth and inflation forecasts. The market is also looking next week's U.K. October CPI release, which comes with downside risk. The AUD managed to recover above 0.8700 after dipping on news that Glencore, the world's biggest thermal coal miner, is planning to close a number of mines in Australia in December due to global oversupply.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed in quiet trading
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:19 EDTFDA Medical Devices Advisory Committee's Ophthalmic Devices Panel holds meeting
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07:15 EDTCitigroup to hold a symposium
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07:06 EDTFutures quiet ahead of several economic reports
Stock futures are trading right around fair value as the market gets set to put the finishing touches on one of the more quiet trading weeks of the year. In contrast to the rest of the week, which was devoid of any major economic reports, investors today will receive a host of data, including reports on import prices, retail sales, consumer confidence business inventories, and natural gas inventories.
06:48 EDTEuro zone Q3 growth beats expectations, Reuters says
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06:25 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 14
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05:54 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar posted gains across the board
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November 13, 2014
20:25 EDTJapan Econ Minister Amari: if sales tax hike is delayed
Japan Econ Minister Amari: if sales tax hike is delayed the government may need to consider if further economic stimulus is required. Indeed, hiking the sales tax or delaying the hike both carry risks that need to be reduced. If PM Abe delays the tax hike, he will do his utmost to achieve primary budget reduction targets and it is not possible to delay it indefinitely as the trust in Japanese debt must not be damaged. Of course, that is the catch-22 in a nutshell. Japan Finance Minister Aso chimed in that though the economy is continuing to moderate and fiscal reform efforts must continue. While private consumption is stalling, employment, incomes and investment is improving. But it would be hard to halve the primary budget deficit as planned for FY2015/2016 is the sales tax is delay. With the rebound in USD-JPY over 116.00 to cycle highs of 116.19 the FX market appears to be assuming that where there's smoke there must be fire on the tax cut delay, though the N-225 is trading lower.
16:00 EDTMinneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota: inflation won't reach 2%
Minneapolis Fed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota: inflation won't reach 2% until 2018 and if the outlook does rise, he could support a rate hike in 2015. Otherwise, if the outlook is unchanged, a 2015 rate hike would be inappropriate. A falling jobless rate should only prompt rate hikes if it generated unwanted inflation. Kocherlakota was expected to discuss the oil boom in the Bakken, but seems to be still justifying his late-October dissent.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:11 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility elevated
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14:15 EDTU.S. Treasury reported a $121.7 B budget deficit for October
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields settled lower
Treasury Action: yields settled lower after the brief selling bout following the damp 30-year auction results, in line with deteriorating stocks ahead of the close. The widening of the budget gap came as no surprise, though inside our survey median. The T-note yield reversed from 2.37% earlier, stopping shy of 2.384% Asian highs before drifting back below 2.35% to session lows.
14:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 115.81 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY managed 115.81 highs in morning trade, before easing back to 115.54. Since the London close, the pairing touched a 115.82 peak, and has subsequently dropped off to 115.56 lows. Offers at 115.90-116.00 are said to be on the heavy side, and price action would seem to confirm that today. The pullback has also been helped by Wall Street turning negative, after it was poised for decent gains earlier. Support is expected into 115.50-30 now.
13:50 EDTU.S. Treasury budget preview:
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13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: some vol selling on bonds
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13:27 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility increases as shares trend lower
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $16 B bond sale was ugly and was the worst of the 3 auctions
Treasury's $16 B bond sale was ugly and was the worst of the 3 auctions. The 30-year tailed to 3.092% versus the 3.085% at the bid deadline. There were only $36.7 B in bids for a 2.29 cover, below both the 2.40 for the $13 B reopening and the 2.42 average. In fact it's the lowest since the May 2014 sale. Indirect bidders took 43.8% versus 46.2% in October and the 44.7% average. Direct bidders took 13.8%, below the prior 21.5%, while primary dealers were awarded 42.5% compared to October's 32.2%. The only good thing to say about the auction is that it finishes the November refunding.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields popped back up
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13:05 EDTFed Chairwoman Yellen nothing to say
Fed Chairwoman Yellen nothing to say vis-a-vis monetary policy or the economic outlook in welcome remarks before a Global Research Forum in NY sponsored by the ECB, Fed and NY Fed. Nothing to see here, move right along to the 30-year auction results.
12:50 EDTPhilly Fed hawk Plosser is waxing philosophical
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12:50 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview:
Treasury 30-year auction preview: Treasury's 30-year auction may not go much better than the first two legs, especially given the lack of an outright concession today. However, there has been an increase in investment fund demand, and that may help carry the day today. The wi trades at 3.085%, though 1 bp cheaper than last month's $13 B reopening, a stop here would be the second richest in a year. That may limit the aggressiveness of domestic buyers. However, with spreads to core global sovereigns near historic wides, and a bias for further easing from the ECB and BoJ, foreign demand could be decent. The soft inflation trends are also supportive. The October reopening (for $13 B) was awarded at 3.074% and garnered a 2.40 cover (2.42 average) and a 46.2% indirect bid (44.7% average). Direct bidders took 21.5% and primary dealers were awarded 32.2%. The August refunding issue stopped at 2.60% and saw a 2.60 cover and a 45.9% indirect.
12:35 EDTTreasury Action: the next big item on the docket is the FOMC Minutes
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12:10 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude tested $75.0
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12:05 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude tested $75.0
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11:55 EDTU.S. equities rolled back over again
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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11:04 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of November 7
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on intra day highs
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10:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude has posted fresh trend lows, trading under November 4 base of $75.84, and touching $75.66 lows so far. Traders now look for a push toward the key $75/bbl region.
10:06 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
September JOLTS Job Openings at 4.735M vs. consensus of 4.800M
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has edged up
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's another loaded calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: it's another loaded calendar, but neither that nor the refunding supply are taking away from the more bullish bent in Treasuries today. Of note, KFW has a $5 B 10-year to lead today's offerings; it's KFW's second largest sale (after the $6 B in May). Roche Holdings has a $1 B 10-year TAP and a new 30-year. Alibaba has announced a multi-tranche deal. Citigroup has a benchmark 12-year subordinated debt sale. And Macys joined the list with a $550 M 20-year.
09:20 EDTFedspeak from Fed Chair Yellen
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are firmer
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities shed their overnight rebound
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08:50 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims bounce to 290k
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08:48 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks at symposium
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks at Stanford's State of the West Symposium being held in Stanford, California on November 13 at 2:45 pm.
08:47 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at conference
Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellen gives the welcome remarks before the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance being held in Washington, D.C. on November 13 at 12:45 pm.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated lower
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08:42 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic policy
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Plosser on panel discussing the new normal at the George Washington University & Princeton University--Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies' Symposium, "The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy: Traditional & New Tools" on November 13 at 12:30 pm.
08:41 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rebounded 12k to 290k in the November 8 week
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08:39 EDTConsumer Financial Protection Bureau to hold a hearing
Hearing on prepaid accounts features remarks from Director Cordray of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as well as testimony from consumer groups, industry representatives, and members of the public is being held in Wilmington, Delaware on November 13 at 11 am. Webcast Link
08:36 EDTFutures remain higher following jobless claims data
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08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched intra day highs
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08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims are expected to hold at 278k (median 280k) in the week-ended November 8. Continuing claims are expected to fall 36k to 2,312k for the week-ended November 1. Forecast risk is upward, as claims may rebound slighlty after hitting a new recent low. Any big swings between Veteran's Day and the MLK holiday are typically attributable to difficulties with seasonal adjustments. preview for more.
08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:35 EDTStanford Institute for Economic Policy Institute to hold a symposium
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07:34 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to hold a conference
Risk Management of Third-Party Payment Processors Conference is being held in Atlanta, Georgia on November 13.
07:31 EDTStifel to hold a conference
Midwest 1:1 Conference is being held in Chicago on November 13.
07:28 EDTEuropean Central Bank, Fed Reserve & Fed Reserve Bank of NY hold forum
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07:25 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
Energy Infrastructure Conference is being held in Toronto on November 13.
07:15 EDTEdison Electric Institute to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a conference
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07:09 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:06 EDTFutures higher as oil prices continues to slide
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
FX Update: The dollar oscillated against the euro and yen, posted gains against the still-underperforming pound and lost ground to the Aussie dollar. AUD-USD rebounded quite strongly during the European AM session after taking a dive in Sydney hours after RBA assistant governor Kent said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention." AUD-USD left low at 0.8672 before a stop-fuelled scramble propelled the pair to eight-day highs above 0.8760. EUR-USD drifted higher to the mid-to-upper 1.24s, though continued to hold well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. The intraday bid reflected a general ebb in the dollar, with USD-JPY having dipped to the 115.50 area. Cable was an exception, edging out a fresh 13-month low at 1.5753, extending the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. BoE's Broadbent said today that disinflationary trends will persist for a while, while the Oct BRC house price balance dropped to 20% from 30%.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
FX Update: The dollar oscillated against the euro and yen, posted gains against the still-underperforming pound and lost ground to the Aussie dollar. AUD-USD rebounded quite strongly during the European AM session after taking a dive during in Sydney hours after RBA assistant governor Kent said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention." AUD-USD left low at 0.8672 before a stop-fuelled scramble propelled the pair to eight-day highs above 0.8760. EUR-USD drifted higher to the mid-to-upper 1.24s, though continued to hold well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. The intraday bid reflected a general ebb in the dollar, with USD-JPY having dipped to the 115.50 area. Cable edged out a fresh 13-month low at 1.5753, extending the decline that was set in motion by the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. BoE's Broadbent said that disinflationary trends will persist for a while, while the Oct BRC house price balance dropped to 20% from 30%.
06:49 EDTOfficial indicates Germany avoided recession, Reuters says
The German economy averted a recession last quarter, as private consumption and foreign trade grew, a German official indicated, according to Reuters. Reference Link
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 13
Globex S&P futures are recently up 6.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.14%, DAX up 0.96%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $76.73, natural gas down 0.96%, gold at $1161 an ounce, copper up 0.66%.
05:51 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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05:35 EDTFed's Dudley said expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike are "reasonable"
Fed's Dudley said expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike are "reasonable" in a speech made in Abu Dhabi, though the timing of the first tightening "really depends on how the economy evolves and how analysts progress towards our objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability." He added that hiking interest rates too early would pose "considerably greater" risks for the Fed than moving too late.
02:25 EDTFX Update: The AUD took a dive on an RBA intervention threat
FX Update: The AUD took a dive on an RBA intervention threat from assistant governor Kent, who said that the central bank "hasn't ruled out intervention" while repeating the RBA's view that the currency remains fundamentally overvalued relative to falling resource prices. AUD-USD dove from the 0.8734 area to session lows of 0.8672, subsequently recovering to the 0.8700-10 area. Most of the other main currencies posted narrow ranges. EUR-USD drifted in a narrow range around 1.2440-50, holding well within the approximate 1.2400-1.2500 range that's developed over the last four trading days. USD-JPY consolidated in the mid-to-upper 115s, keeping Monday's 116.10 six-year high in range. There was another flood of Japanese policymaker speak, which generally sent the message the QQE isn't risking hyper-inflation down the track, and that the recovery is on track, which helped fuel another solid rally in the Nikkei. GBP was unaffected by BoE-speak from Carney, who said the economy is normalizing, and Broadbent, who said disinflationary trends will persist for a while, especially if commodity prices remain low.
November 12, 2014
21:45 EDTBoJ's Amamiya said the current QQE program is open-ended
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21:15 EDTJapanese core machine tool orders climbed 2.9% in September
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21:05 EDTJapan PPI fell 0.8% in October
Japan PPI fell 0.8% in October from a revised unchanged in September (was -0.1%). The annual pace slowed to a 2.9% y/y clip versus a revised 3.6% y/y rate previously (was 3.5% y/y). Weakness was fairly broadbased but centered on petroleum/coal (-3.7%), scrap/waste (-4.8%), utilities (-4.0%), and agriculture (-2.1%). Price pressures have been eroding measurable since the summer, falling to the current 2.9% pace from 4.5% y/y in June.
17:26 EDTDecember PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
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17:26 EDTDecember PMI Manufacturing Index Flash to be released at 09:45
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17:26 EDTWeek of 11/21 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 12:00
17:26 EDTWeek of 11/21 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:26 EDTWeek of 11/22 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:30 EDTFed dovish dissenter Kocherlakota: I am concerned
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $24 B 10-year note auction was ok
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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12:46 EDTWeek of 11/21 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview: the auction should see mixed results
Treasury 10-year auction preview: the auction should see mixed results, with ongoing support from indirect bidders, and a fairly lackluster domestic bid. The wi is a little richer on the day at 2.355%, though that's at the higher end of the week's 2.28% to 2.38% range. Nevertheless, an award rate there would be the richest in over a year. There is a lot of cash to be reinvested, which should support. Additionally, ongoing worries over growth and inflation, particularly in Europe, should foster a bid. Ukraine tensions are flaring again and that could bring in some flight to safety. The near record-wide spreads to core sovereigns should also underpin sponsorship, especially as many forecast further dollar appreciation. The $21 B October reopening was poorly subscribed, tailing out to 2.381%, with a 2.52 cover, below September's 2.71 and the 2.69 average. It was the smallest since August 2013. Indirect bidders were awarded 44.4%, below September's 53.0% and the 45.9% average. Direct bidders took 6.6%, about half of the prior 13.5%, while primary dealers accepted 49.0% versus 33.5% previously.
12:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: a fairly quiet tone
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12:00 EDTTreasury Action: but yields are probing higher
Treasury Action: but yields are probing higher in deference to upcoming 10-year supply, according to sources, reversing earlier slippage with the declines on Wall Street. The current 10-year yield found traction near 2.32% before rebounding over 2.345% again, still below 2.365% highs in Asia. Sources expect decent foreign demand for the T-note, however, thanks to its value relative to other sovereigns (0.812% on Bunds, 0.53% on JGBs). Indeed, some look for the 2.38-2.40% 50% retracement area to hold, though with the JPM duration survey showing the largest number of longs by "active traders" since January 2014, long-squaring could become a factor on a break.
11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has made three attempts
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11:45 EDTTreasury's 4- and 52-week bill auctions were ok
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities are slipping again
U.S. equities are slipping again after a dead cat bounce with USD-JPY earlier after energy prices rolled over again. It seems that oil prices took a gander at China's inflation drop again, initially faltering somewhat ahead of tomorrow's EIA inventory report, which is expected to show elevated stockpiles as well, before NYMEX crude rebounded toward $78 bbl again. European bourses are extending their drop, with the Euro Stoxx 50 off nearly 2% now and Milan 2.9% lower following fresh regulatory actions and fines on FX manipulators. Blue chips are leading the pace into the red, with the NASDAQ lagging lower. Biggest decliners in the Dow are not coincidentally JPM -1.6% and Goldman -1.2%, though the latter somehow was not named in the probe.
11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made two attempts
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11:18 EDTGlobal X Uranium ETF volatility decreases as shares trend up from record low
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11:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: there are several deals on the calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: there are several deals on the calendar to compete with the Treasury's 10-year sale, but none are particularly large. Gilead just announced a benchmark 3-part offering including 5-, 10-, and 30-year debt. Volkswagen has a benchmark 3-year fixed and/or FRN, along with a 5-year note. Canadian Natural Resources has a benchmark 3- and 10-year deal. Phillips 66 is selling benchmark 10- and 30-year paper. Ally Financial announced a benchmark 5-year. Duke Realty has a $300 M 10-year, while AvalonBay Communities has a $300 M 10-year. Investment grade issuance on Monday totaled nearly $11 B, to bring the monthly volume to $62 B.
10:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures perked up
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10:40 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade figures beat estimates
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to loiter near lows
Treasury Action: yields continued to loiter near lows following the uptick in wholesale sales and inventories, which never is much of a market mover, leaving the bond market to focus on weaker stocks and the widening FX manipulation probe. The T-note yield is holding near 2.32%, just up from NY session lows, but well below opening highs of 2.365% in Asia. The 2s-10s spread at a hair under +180 bp, slightly narrower, while the 5s-30s spread is holding near +144 bp.
10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales rose 0.2% in September with inventories up 0.3%
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10:03 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
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10:03 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
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09:48 EDTBofA/Merrill transport/consumer analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:40 EDTBoJ's Sato and ECB's Draghi singing from same deflationary hymn sheet
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09:37 EDTEurope, financials weigh on market at outset
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09:21 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks on monetary policy
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks on clarifying monetary policy objectives before the Eau Claire Chamber of Commerce in a meeting being held in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on November 12 at 1:30 pm.
09:20 EDTTreasury 10-year auction outlook
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09:18 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY dipped
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the defensive
U.S. equities are on the defensive after a sideways session on Veterans' Day, led lower by deep losses in Europe following a relatively benign session in Asia. Financials will be under scrutiny after the Fed confirmed a follow-up investigation on FX market manipulation after 5 major global banks were fined $3.4 B by regulators, which weighed on major European banks cited, such as UBS and HSBC. The Dow is 75-points lower, S&P sank 8-points and NASDAQ faltered 12-points ahead of the opening gong from marginal fresh record levels on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.6%, while the Nikkei rose 0.4% after hints of sales tax delays by PM Abe, while the Shanghai Comp rose 1.0% and the HK Hang Seng gained 0.55%. Citi sank 1% overseas, along with losses by JP Morgan, who were among the 5 global banks fined by the US CFTC, UK FCA and Swiss FMSA. Wholesale trade shouldn't rile the markets much later.
08:30 EDTMore Fedspeak to come from Minneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota
More Fedspeak to come from Minneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota who will be speaking on "Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy" before the Eau Claire Chamber of Commerce from 13:30 ET, however, this will largely be a repeat of an earlier speech with no Q&A.
08:25 EDTFed is investigating possible improper FX market conduct
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08:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD put in a 1.1359 high
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08:17 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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08:16 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
Telecom & Cable Conference is being held in Toronto on November 12.
08:15 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to hold a forum
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08:14 EDTMitsubishi UFJ to hold a conference
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08:00 EDTFBR Capital to hold meetings at conference
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07:53 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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07:51 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:50 EDTBioCentury to hold a summit
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07:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded a relatively narrow range
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded a relatively narrow range overnight, basing at $77.10/bbl, and topping out at $77.62. A pause in the dollar's rally has brought some oil buyers back to the fray, while talk of OPEC cutting production by 500k bpd when the cartel meets later this month has made the rounds. Overall though, with supply outstripping demand, gains are likely to remain shallow, and the broader range of $76-80 should hold for the time being.
07:45 EDTFed's hawk Plosser reiterated that the Fed should begin raising rates sooner
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are higher
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mixed in overnight trade, losing modest ground to the yen and CAD, while largely trading sideways versus the euro, and posting gains via sterling. Aside from September wholesale data at 10:00 EDT, the calendar is empty this morning, and focus will likely stay on equities and Treasuries. Stock futures currently indicate a moderately lower Wall Street open, while yields have eased back some as well, both indicative of further pressure on the dollar.
07:29 EDTFutures suggest lower open for broader market
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07:21 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
Week of 11/7 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index down -0.9% for the week
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been mixed
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been mixed
FX Update: The dollar has been mixed, gaining against an underperforming sterling after the BoE trimmed GDP and CPI projections, holding net steady in the mid-to-upper 1.24s versus the euro, and ebbing to the low 115s against the yen following a correction from Tuesday's six-year peak at 116.10. Cable tumbled nearly 100 pips in reaching 1.5847 on the release of the November BoE Quarterly Inflation Report, which trimmed both GDP and inflation forecasts and noted that CPI will likely fall below 1% within six months. The yen was supported in Tokyo trade by a report in Japan's Sankei newspaper that PM Abe will delay the tax hike by a year-and-a-half to April 2017. Sankei , citing government sources, also said that Able may call a snap election for December. Elsewhere, EUR-CHF remained heavy after making a 26-month low at 1.2021 yesterday. SNB President Jordan said in a press interview today that the 1.2000 cap will remain in place for the "foreseeable" future as it is "essential" for preventing deflation.
06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 12
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05:51 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-softer
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November 11, 2014
22:05 EDTBoJ board member Miyao was quite chatty
BoJ board member Miyao was quite chatty and relatively optimistic in favor of a "gradual recovery" and expecting inflation to hit its 2% target by FY-2015 despite some slow of late, which could delay the switch from a deflationary mindset. He saw recent easing as a response to increasing downside risks to prices, but doesn't think that makes it more difficult to exit QE. Miyao also said that extending the average duration of JGB purchases was intended to push rates lower along the yield curve.
22:00 EDTJapan government spokesman Suga denied tax hike postponment
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14:38 EDT.
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14:38 EDTWeek of 11/22 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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14:38 EDTWeek of 11/22 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
12:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar drifted lower
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09:44 EDTMarket has another relatively quiet open
Stock futures were quiet during the pre-market trading session, leading to a quiet open for the broader market. Just like yesterday, the domestic economic calendar remains quiet. Today has the additional wrinkle of bond markets being closed in observance of Veteran's Day. In early trading, the Dow is down 22 points, the Nasdaq is down 5 points and the S&P is down 2 points.
08:58 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:36 EDTDeutsche Bank tech analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is making time in a narrow range
FX Action: USD-JPY is making time in a narrow range in the high 115s after punching out a new six-year peak at 116.10. Our long-standing target at 115.00 was met last week, though analysts still think divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan will remain broadly supportive of USD-JPY, and anticipate a move on 120.0 over the coming months. The T-note over JGB yield differential has recouped about 3 bp over the last day at the 10-year maturity level, though at 187.2 bp presently remains off recent highs above 190 bp.
07:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down a few cents
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07:23 EDTFutures suggest another quiet session
Stock futures are quiet once again, although they are sitting on the positive side of the flat line. Earnings season is winding down, so corporate results are unlikely to provide much of a catalyst. Meanwhile, no major economic data is scheduled to be released today. Facing few headwinds, the market may once again find it easy to drift to new highs.
06:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar has traded firmer
FX Action: The dollar has traded firmer today. USD-JPY punched to a new trend high of 115.85 on triggering a round of buy stops through 115.55-65. U.S. Fed Fischer has also said that rates could rise in the U.S. before summer 2015, which is when markets are currently expecting, in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper today. EUR-USD has dipped below Monday's low in making 1.2404, and Cable and AUD-USD have seen a similar price action -- the latter giving back gains seen in the wake of the NAB business conditions survey, which showed the biggest gain on record in the October on record. EUR-CHF edged out a fresh 26-month low at 1.2021 in what is best described as cautious trade given the heightened risk of SNB intervention to defend the franc's 1.2000 cap.
06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 11
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06:00 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has punched to a new trend high
FX Action: USD-JPY has punched to a new trend high of 115.85 so far. Buy stops were triggered around 115.55-65. The move comes after Japan's PM Abe said that the intended second sales tax hike will be been_delayed , according to government sources cited by Reuters. U.S. Fed Fischer has also said that rates could rise in the U.S. before summer 2015, which is when markets are currently expecting, in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper today. The dollar is also showing gains against other currencies other than the yen. EUR-USD has dipped below Monday's low in making 1.2404, and Cable and AUD-USD have seen a similar price action -- the latter giving back gains seen in the wake of the NAB business conditions survey, which showed the biggest gain on record in the October on record.
November 10, 2014
19:55 EDTBoston Fed dove Rosengren: the Fed should fight vigorously against low inflation
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17:42 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 16:00
17:42 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 12:45
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17:42 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 03:30
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17:42 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 13:30
15:45 EDTRaymond James to hold a conference
Boston Fall Investors Conference is being held in Boston on November 11.
15:15 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:40 EDTSF Fed study says long-term rates maybe be higher than forecast
SF Fed study says long-term rates maybe be higher than forecast. According to the SF Fed's Economic Letter, authors Leduc and Rudebusch find little evidence to support prior views that declines in long-run potential economic growth knock interest rates lower. Rather, they examined private forecasters outlooks on GDP and interest rates and found that recent downward revisions to growth were not accompanied by changes to their real short term rate forecasts. Leduc and Rudebusch suggest the FOMC and CBO may have overestimated the effects of slower growth on reducing rates, which would introduce some upside risks to Fed rate projections. There's not a lot of hard evidence here for the markets to go on, and indeed the authors say that "this simple theory is not definitive, and in the real world, other factors may obscure or overwhelm this relationship." Nevertheless, it's something to chew on and any indication rates will move higher in the future probably won't sit well with bond bulls today.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed highs
Treasury Action: yields probed highs following the tepid takedown on the 3-year note auction, which failed to inspire while orphaned from the rest of the supply calendar by Veteran's Day tomorrow. The current 3-year yield probed 0.964%, compared to Asian lows of 0.90% and the 0.998% award rate on the new notes, though still below post-payrolls highs of 1.016%.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $26 B 3-year auction was ok
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13:10 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads are having an "inside day"
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched session highs
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12:40 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview: demand for the notes should be decent
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12:17 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund November volatility elevated increases on USDA outlook
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11:50 EDTTreasury's 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call buying in belly
Treasury Option Action: bullish call buying in belly was reported by sources with 1.5k of 120.5 calls bought on 5-year futures. December 5-year futures are 4.7-ticks lower near 119-135 compared to a 119-252 to 119-135 range. The underlying futures continue to fill back in some of the post-payrolls gap on a quiet session as stocks recover.
11:40 EDTU.S. equities extended their opening gains
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill sale for Wednesday
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11:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has traded up
FX Action: USD-JPY has traded up to just under 114.80, gaining nearly 100 points from its London low. The rally has come in tandem with firmer equities and yields, though talk of Japanese offers layered from 114.80 to 115.00 could cap further gains for the time being. On the move from under 114.00 overnight, there had been talk of renewed carry trade interest, with dollar proceeds reportedly moving into U.S. equity markets.
10:25 EDTFed's LMCI was flat at 4 in October
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09:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning was reported in early trade that mostly entailed put sales, including a sale of 10k in Blue December 77/80 put 1x2s, along with a sale of 12.5k in Blue January 67 puts, though there was a bearish purchase of 5k in Green January 75/76/78 broken put butterflies. December 2014s are flat at 99.76, while the deferred contracts are 0.5-3.0 ticks firmer.
09:40 EDTBoJ's Kuroda was swayed by declining inflation forecasts
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09:34 EDTMarket begins week near record levels
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09:21 EDTDA Davidson banks and thrifts analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTFedspeak resumes today with Vice Chair Fischer
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08:30 EDTU.S. equites are slightly firmer to start the week
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up over 1%
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08:10 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar edged lower in London trade, taking EUR-USD briefly over 1.2500, and USD-JPY under 114.00. The post-jobs data pullback in Treasury yields appears to have weighed some on the dollar, keeping dollar-long position squaring activity at the forefront. With nothing on the U.S. calendar this morning, focus will likely stay with equity and yields performance.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly higher
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07:24 EDTStock futures quiet as week’s trading is set to begin
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07:22 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold annual meeting
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07:21 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Russia & CIS 1:1 Conference is being held in London, England on November 10-11.
07:09 EDTSterne Agee to hold a conference
4th Annual Philadelphia SMID Cap Conference to be held in Philadelphia on November 10.
07:09 EDTEmpire Startups to hold a conference
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06:40 EDTChina to link stock exchanges starting November 17, Reuters reports
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06:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar gave back some of the post-U.S. jobs gain
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06:22 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 10
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05:56 EDTStocks with implied volatility above IV index mean; GME ACHN
Stocks with implied volatility above IV index mean; GameStop (GME) 66, Achillion (ACHN) 226 according to iVolatility
05:56 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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November 9, 2014
18:54 EDTChina approves $113B of infrastructure investments, Reuters says
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18:29 EDTChina's exports and imports slowed in October, Reuters says
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09:34 EDTBusiness Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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09:34 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 . Current consensus is 87.5
09:34 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
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09:34 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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09:34 EDTJOLTS Job Openings to be reported at 10:00
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09:34 EDTTreasury Budget to be reported at 14:00
October Treasury Budget will be reported at 14:00 . Current consensus is $[130.0]B
09:34 EDTRetail Sales to be reported at 08:30
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09:34 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level to be reported at 07:30
October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index level will be reported at 07:30 . Current consensus is 96.0
November 7, 2014
15:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:15 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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15:15 EDTU.S. consumer credit climbed $15.9 B in September
U.S. consumer credit climbed $15.9 B in September after a $14.0 B August gain (revised from $13.5 B) and a $22.8 B July increase (revised from $21.6 B). Strength continues to be seen in the non-revolving credit component (includes auto and student loans), which rose $14.5 B after a $14.2 B gain (revised from $13.7 B). Revolving credit edged up $1.4 B versus a $0.2 B August decline. Consumer credit was up $52.8 B in Q3 to $3.267 tln. Student loans climbed to $1.3 tln over those three months, from $1.27 tln in Q2, with auto loans rising to $940.9 B last quarter from Q2's $918.7 B.
15:09 EDTConsumer Credit data reported
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14:45 EDTU.S. consumer credit preview:
U.S. consumer credit preview: September consumer credit is expected to increase $20.0 B (median $15.5 B) vs a $13.5 B increase in August. Increases in non-revolving credit are leading the the largest series of gains since 2001, while revolving credit data since late-2008 have been weak, though recent figures suggest a slow reversal in the downtrend. Forecast risk is upward, as increases have averaged $18.9 B per month since last December. preview for more.
14:35 EDTU.S. says may double military on ground in Iraq, CNBC reports
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14:30 EDTFedspeak will trickle out steadily next week
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain lower amid a short covering rally
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13:55 EDTMinneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota: low interest rates are expected
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13:50 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: the October nonfarm payroll report did not seem to materially change Fed expectations and outlooks for rate lift-off. As policymakers have reiterated, the policy trajectory remains data dependent. While the just-released jobs data continued to reflect the improvement in the labor market, a number of other important policy factors, including earnings and inflation, will give the dovish members of the FOMC pause. There's not a lot on next week's calendar. Retail sales and trade prices will highlight. Survey Medians point to a modest rebound in sales, while trade prices will reflect the downturn in commodity prices, all of which will be supportive for the FOMC members who are calling for patience.
12:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mild recovery in volatility
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11:15 EDTU.S. Payrolls Disappoint, But Report Still Solid:
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11:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: a sizable bullish position
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10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains lower
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10:30 EDTFed Chief Dove Yellen blames the lack of fiscal support
Fed Chief Dove Yellen blames the lack of fiscal support for the weaker U.S. and global economic recovery, admonishing that governments need to significantly improve fiscal balances in good times and prepare for stimulus in the bad times. She believes that monetary policy globally will need to normalize as economic activity and inflation return to normal - timing and speed varying across countries. Curiously for someone with a $4.5 tln balance sheet, she warns that such normalization could lead to heightened financial volatility. See her speech: "Central Banking: The Way Forward?"
10:19 EDTCredit Suisse economist holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:16 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:14 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:09 EDTCredit Suisse healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare analysts, along with industry expert George Olsen,, provide a Washington Healthcare Policy update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on November 7 at 10 am.
10:06 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Tarullo to speak at symposium
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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10:03 EDTChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans speaks at symposium
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09:55 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed is not likely to advance its first rate hike
Fed Policy Outlook: the Fed is not likely to advance its first rate hike into the first half of 2015, even though the October jobs report signaled ongoing improvement in the labor market. The gains registered in many of the components were in line with market expectations, and those of many policymakers more than likely. However, there are a couple of important factors that should keep the FOMC patient through the first half of 2015. Recent data suggest Q4 growth is likely to slow to a 2.5% pace, from a forecast downward revision to 3.2% for Q3, from the prior 3.5% pace. Additionally, a key component of the FOMC's policy outlook continues to disappoint, wages, and other than for highly skilled workers, there aren't signs of a significant pick up economy-wide. And lastly, the subdued inflation rate continues to frustrate and is expected to keep Fed doves in control. Note to that next years voting contingent leans to the dovish side, as it includes Evans, Williams, Lockhart, and Lacker.
09:45 EDTMore from dove Evans: Fed should only raise rates
More from dove Evans: Fed should only raise rates when confident on inflation and the labor market, amid great risks to a premature liftoff from zero. He sees low odds of inflation rising notably above target and suggests that the U.S. economy could weather a rise inflation above 2%, Indeed, he thinks the expectation of a return to inflation of 2% or more is based on hope more than data. Evans thinks that weakness in foreign growth and dollar strength are downside risks for the U.S.
09:44 EDTMarket opens moderately lower after jobs report
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09:35 EDTFed's Evans said the October jobs print was "pretty good,"
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09:35 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on quarterly forecasts
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09:30 EDTFor the jobs data impact on other October reports
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09:25 EDTThe 214k U.S. October payroll climb
The 214k U.S. October payroll climb after 31k in upward revisions tracked assumptions, as did the cycle-high 34.6 workweek in October. Yet, a downward September workweek revision left a big 0.5% October rise for hours-worked rise versus a 0.2% estimate, after an offsetting big downward September revision to 0.2% from 0.5%. As such, though the October hours-worked surge was impressive, it left an as-expected trend for that measure as well. The hefty 683k civilian employment rise with a big 416k labor force increase was encouraging, and the mix left the October jobless rate at a cycle-low 5.76%. The bellwether goods sector was also firm in October, with an hours-worked gain for the sector of 0.3% with component gains of 0.1% for factories, 0.7% for construction, and 1.2% for mining. Goods sector jobs rose 28k, with component gains of 15k for factories, 12k for construction, and 1k for mining.
09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell sharply
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09:10 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester characterized herself as an "owl,"
Cleveland Fed's Mester characterized herself as an "owl," which is a wise creature, not wanting to label herself either a hawk or a dove in the FOMC aviary. She acknowledged the first rate hike will likely be sometime in 2015, given her expectations of about 3% GDP growth over the next several years, with further declines in the unemployment rate and an uptrend in inflation to the 2% region. She reiterated that the policy trajectory is data dependent and the Fed will react to income data and how the numbers fit into the overall outlook. She doesn't believe analysts're in a deflationary environment as she doesn't see evidence consumers are delaying purchases, awaiting lower prices. Inflation expectations seem to be stable. She doesn't believe the Fed is behind the curve, noting she voted with the consensus at the last FOMC meeting. She's ok with the "Dot Plot," suggesting it's a way for policymakers to be as clear as it can be on where it wants to see the economy, and hence where it things the appropriate policy stance is. She was speaking in a CNBC interview.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities extended modest gains
U.S. equities extended modest gains following the headline payrolls print of 214k, a drop in the jobless rate to 5.8%, and generally firmer component data on earnings and the workweek. The Dow is up 18-points, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 11-points higher, up from earlier lows in pre-open trade. This followed a rough and tumble session overnight, with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.8% lower on more European weakness, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.52% thanks to yen weakness. Sears Holdings surged 25% after mulling the sale and lease-back of up to 300 stores. Disney sank 2% after its TV network profits fell. BofA also sank 1% after a Q3 loss amid global investigation into FX market manipulation. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed "owl" said the jobs report was a "solid" reading on the labor market.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields were jerked around
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell briefly
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08:40 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 214k in October,
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08:38 EDTFutures move slightly higher following jobs report
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08:32 EDTU.S. October non-farm payrolls rise 214K, unemployment rate falls to 5.8%
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08:30 EDTFed's Dudley said the Fed will "likely" start raising rates in 2015
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08:25 EDT5 Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report
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08:15 EDTPayroll Growth Moderation Expected into Q4:
Payroll Growth Moderation Expected into Q4: Analysts expect a 220k October payroll rise that would mark a respectable gain versus the expected Q4 slowing in GDP growth to 2.5% from the 4% area over the past two quarters, though our estimate sits below the 230k median estimate and the hefty 248k September gain. The headline faces upside risk from the continued improvement in initial claims, a firm ADP path and rising consumer confidence. To the downside, producer sentiment is easing through October, and big stock price declines through the BLS survey week could have impacted hiring. for more and our employment page as well.
08:05 EDTCanada Employment Preview
Canada Employment Preview: Analysts expect employment to drop 5.0k in October (median -10.0k) after the 74.1k surge in September. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 6.9% from the post recession low 6.8% seen in October. Every monthly jobs increase this year has been followed by a decrease, leaving a sea-saw pattern since January. An as expected October result would continue that pattern. our recent commentary.
07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up at $78.46/bbl
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields crept higher overnight
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07:38 EDTUkraine says 32 tanks enter from Russia, AFP reports
The Ukrainian military said 32 tanks, 16 howitzer cannons and 30 trucks of troops and equipment had entered the country from Russia, reported AFP, citing Ukrainian Military spokesman Andriy Lysenko. Reference Link
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar advanced further in early Asian trade overnight, though later eased back in London dealings, perhaps as position paring into this morning's 8:30 EST U.S. employment report weighed. EUR-USD touched 1.2365 trend lows after the N.Y. close, before edging back over 1.2400 into the open. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped out at 115.45, and now sits just over 115.25. Recent claims, ADP and ISM data indicate some upside risk to this morning's jobs report, so further dollar, yield and equity market upside could still be in play.
07:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar has held firm
FX Update: The dollar has held firm as markets anticipate a strong U.S. payrolls report, edging out fresh major-trend highs against the EUR, AUD and NZD, while USD-JPY returned to the mid-115s, leaving an intraday high so far at 115.46, five pips shy of yesterday's six-year peak. AUD-USD dipped about 30 pips from yesterday's closing level in making a new trend low at 0.8540. The RBA's quarterly monetary report was a cue for Aussie selling as it leaned toward steady rates for a spell and repeated that the AUD is still above its fair value and that a further fall would help rebalance the economy (though noting that inflows from Japan due to BoJ easing and pension fund flows could have the opposite effect). EUR-USD, meanwhile, posted a narrow range though still managed to eke out a fresh 27-month low at 1.2364. Analysts expect today's U.S. October employment report to show a headline increase of 220k, with a healthy 200k private payroll gain, but note upside risk due to continued strength in claims, confidence and sentiment.
07:17 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at symposium
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07:16 EDTFTC to hold a forum
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07:15 EDTFTC to hold a symposium
The FTC @ 100 Symposium where the five current FTC Commissioners hold an examination of the FTC's past, present and future in a meeting being held at the FTC Washington, D.C. offices on November 7 at 8:30 am.
07:10 EDTNew York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley speaks on capital flows
New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley participates in a panel discussion on capital flows at the Bank of France International Symposium being held in Paris, France on November 7 at 8:15 am.
07:04 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs report
U.S. equity futures are quiet ahead of the release of the monthly non-farm payrolls data. Analysts are predicting that 235K net nonfarm jobs and 225K net private sector jobs were added last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.9%. The numbers are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET.
06:51 EDTFrench manufacturing rebounded in September
French manufacturing output rose 0.6% in September 2014 after a 0.5% decline in August, the French government reported. For Q3, output rose 0.2% in the manufacturing sector quarter over quarter, while the output of all industry increased 0.5% during the same period, the government added. Reference Link
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for November 7
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05:48 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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04:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar's yield advantage continues to increase
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar has held firm
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01:48 EDTWeek of 11/19 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
01:48 EDTWeek of 11/10 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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