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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 15, 2015
10:00 EDTThe 0.6% U.S. March industrial production drop
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09:55 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to rise to 54 in April from 53. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:47 EDTStocks rise despite manufacturing, industrial production data missing forecasts
U.S. equity futures were higher throughout the pre-market trading session despite weaker than expected reports on manufacturing in the New York region and industrial production. The Empire State manufacturing report and the industrial production decline were worse than expected but the market showed little reaction as earnings take center stage. The broader market opened in positive territory and the Dow and S&P 500 are both up about 0.5% in early trading. About fifteen minutes after the opening bell, the Dow is up 101 points, the Nasdaq is up 16 points and the S&P is up 11 points.
09:45 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1 and this automated estimate updated in real time tracks 13 components of GDP growth as they are reported (analysts are still at 1.0%). The project goes back only to the second half of 2011, but in 7 quarters from late 2011 to 2014, its accuracy beat economists 5 out of 7 times, with 1 loss and 1 tie. The model is apparently especially good when the expected growth is less than 1%, according to sources. for more detail.
09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell back
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended declines
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09:20 EDTFed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles
Fed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles, in his remarks on financial regulation from Washington. And added that a gradual rise in rates would mitigate that risk, while still providing "significant" policy accommodative. He will reserve judgment on inflation until oil prices stabilize, but said a drop in inflation expectations bears watching and he'd be concerned if they fell from 2%. Labor markets are approaching more normal conditions and he forecasts growth of about 3% over the medium term. Bullard isn't a voter.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities are holding their own
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09:00 EDTThe Empire State April drop to -1.19
The Empire State April drop to -1.19 extended the small March decline to 6.90 to leave the index just above the 19-month low of -1.23 in December, and well below the 27.41 five-year high in September. The ISM-adjusted Empire State measure remained at the lean 51.0 March figure, versus a 47.5 one-year low in December and a 55.3 two-year high back in June. The 2015 drop in producer sentiment in the face of unsustainably high inventories and the petro-headwind tracks the pull-back for GDP growth to the estimated 1.0% rate in Q1 from a lean 2.2% Q4 pace, and the Industrial production slowdown to a flat Q1 figure from a 4.4% Q4 clip. Analysts expect the Philly Fed to remain at March's lean 5.0 reading. Analysts expect a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0, a small Dallas Fed uptick to -17.0 from -17.4, an ISM rise to 52.0 from 51.5, and an unchanged 56.5 ISM-NMI reading. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to remain at the same weak 50 figure seen in March, versus 52 in January and February, 53 in December, 55 over the four months ending in November, and a 56 cycle-high last July.
08:55 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs
Treasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs after the Empire State negative print capped the earlier sell-off, though stocks are taking the news in stride as the Fed is kept arms length from its tightening plans. The T-note yield stalled under 1.92% and eased briefly below 1.90%, but the markets await the ECB press conference as well, which may take on greater importance. The 2s-10s spread is trading just inside +140 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April after slipping 0.88 points to 6.90 in March. The index has generally sagged since jumping almost 20 points to 27.4 in September, and hit a low of -1.23 in December. The employment component was halved to 9.57 from 18.56, with the workweek at -4.26 from 5.15. New orders declined to -6.0 from -2.39. Prices paid rose to 19.15 from 12.37 and prices received falling to 4.26 from 8.25. The 6-month general business conditions index improved to 37.06 from 30.72, after hitting a recent high of 48.35 in January. The future employment index slipped to 22.34 from 28.87, with new orders at 33.57 from 26.31, and capital expenditures at 24.47 from 18.56. The current conditions figures are much weaker than expected and should support Treasuries.
08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following manufacturing data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the Empire manufacturing report. The report had a reading of -1.19 versus expectations of +7.17. The next set of data points are due out at 9:15 am ET, when reports on industrial production and capacity utilization are due to be released.
08:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard
Fedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard who will be discussing the economy and monetary policy from 9 ET. He will be followed by Fed VC Fischer who will speak on a panel on macro-prudential tools at the IMF/World Bank meetings from 10:40 ET. Then Richmond Fed hawk Lacker mulls "Investing in People for Long-Term Prosperity" after the close from 19:30 ET.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
Energy Action: NYMEX crude touched levels last seen on February 3, peaking at $54.19 following IEA forecasts of firmer demand in the current quarter. The rally was helped by short covering in the May Brent contract, which expires later today. A firmer dollar has limited price gains into the N.Y. open, while China's slower growth, and prospects for additional Iran supply, should a nuclear agreement be made, have offset the rally to a degree as well. RBOB gasoline futures are up nearly 2 cents/gallon to $1.87, leaving U.S. average retail prices nearly unchanged over the past week, at $2,39/gallon. Natural gas futures are up 0.75% at $2.55/M BTU, though still near recent trend lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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08:14 EDTRichmond Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on economic outlook
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08:12 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:11 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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