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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 21, 2015
09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows
FX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows, trading at 1.2225, after basing at 1.2215 into the open. The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2220 has provided early support, as has talk of option backed bids parked at 1.2200. Sell stops are expected under 1.2180, which was Monday's low.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more liquidation in block trade
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08:46 EDTJPMorgan global pharmaceuticals analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook:
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08:15 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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08:00 EDTU.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1%
U.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1% in the week ended April 18. This follows solid gains in the prior 3 weeks, in part on Easter, and in part on warmer weather which helped boost apparel and outdoor goods sales. The annual pace slowed a bit to 3.3% y/y from 3.8% y/y, but is still one of the strongest gains of the year. The changing Easter date makes annual comps difficult.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading
Treasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading. Overseas markets were mixed with JGB posting small gain while European sovereigns are mostly weaker. Global equities are in the green but have slipped from their highs. Greece remains a concern amid reports the ECB is thinking about reducing Greek bank support if reform progress is not forthcoming. In economic news, the German ZEW investor confidence for April disappointed, falling unexpectedly to 53.3 from 54.8 in March. The above factors weighed on EUR-USD which tumbled to 1.0660. In the U.S. today it's all about earnings with names like Yahoo!, Baker Hughes, Under Armour, Harley-Davidson, Verizon, Yum! Brands, Kimberly-Clark, and Zynga. The calendar otherwise contains only weekly chain store sales and a 4-week bill auction.
07:27 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a meeting
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07:26 EDTFutures suggest a follow through to yesterday’s rally
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07:22 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:19 EDTSenate Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Opportunities and Challenges for Agriculture Trade with Cuba" with Under Secretary Scuse of the U.S. Agriculture Dept., Senior Vice President Harris of Riceland Foods and Ralph Kaehler, Farmer and Owner of Kaehler Cattle Company on April 21 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:18 EDTFDIC to hold a board meeting
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07:17 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee holds meeting
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07:13 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 21
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02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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01:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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April 20, 2015
17:09 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:09 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
Canada Wholesale Trade Preview: Analysts expect wholesale shipments, due Tuesday, to rise 0.5% in February (median -0.5%) after the 3.1% plunge in January. Forecast risk is all over the place given the bounce in retail shipments and plunge in manufacturing shipments during February. An as expected bounce would track expectations that the impact of the oil shock was front loaded in Q1. The 2.5% drop in February manufacturing shipments alongside the 1.3% gain in February retail sales informs our wholesale projection. Analysts are giving more weight to the retail sales gain given that the manufacturing drop was due to temporary factors in the vehicle production industry.
14:18 EDTMarket holding onto earlier gains
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: long-end underperformance
Treasury Action: long-end underperformance has been the rule today, though the rising tide on stocks is lifting all boats along the curve. The 2-year yield has backed up from 0.5040% session lows to clear 0.5320%, the 5-year rose from 1.290% to 1.334%, while the 10-year bounced from 1.853% to probe 1.90% and the 30-year ramped up from 2.5090% lows to 2.569%. That saw the 2s-10s spread widen 2 basis points from +135 bp to +137 bp, while the 5s-30s spread stretched 1.5 basis points from +122 bp to +123.5 bp. Swings on stocks have been amplified by China as tighter margin and looser short-selling rules on Friday were contrasted by rate cuts today - setting up the "V" shaped move.
12:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s
Euro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s was spotted at 99.69 today to the tune of 60k with double that reportedly bid as well. Sources say that some 200k in June euro$s were sold from 99.645-99.595 back on March 19 (after last FOMC) and this may be short-covering on that trade. The June contract is a half-tick lower at 99.69 presently and the deferreds remain under pressure, some 0.5-5.0 ticks lower out the back.
12:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 119.35
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11:45 EDTTreasury's 3- and 6-month bill auctions were strong
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:05 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: put liquidations
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10:40 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility broke to lows of 13.14
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to four-month highs
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10:05 EDTA Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment:
A Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment: The downdraft for U.S. producer sentiment may have abated somewhat in April, given improvement in the component data for the Empire State and Philly Fed reports despite unimpressive headlines. On an ISM-adjusted basis, the Empire survey held steady in April while the Philly Fed posted a welcome bounce. Analysts expect ISM-adjusted average of all the major surveys to improve slightly to 51 in April, after a lean 50 average in March, though higher 52 averages in January and February and a 55 average as recently as November.
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved moderately higher
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09:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week. Of course no policy action will be forthcoming. But the markets will be looking to the statement for additional clues on the timing of rate liftoff. With policymakers continuing to stress the data-dependency of rate action, as NY Fed's Dudley just did, there shouldn't be any firm indications on timing. The statement will note the slowdown in Q1, and the markets will try to get a sense of just how much temporary factors are to blame, including the stronger dollar, slow overseas growth, and spillover from energy price weakness. After the disappointing March jobs report, the Fed will repeat it needs to see further improvement, and it may tweak from the March statement that the underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. The outlook on inflation will be important, and the uptick in core CPI to a 1.8% y/y rate in March from 1.7% y/y could give the Fed some confidence that prices are moving toward the target. But that won't be sufficient to suggest any policy changes near term.
09:33 EDTChina's central bank helps U.S. stocks recoup some of Friday’s losses
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09:25 EDTMore from Dudley is not yet reasonably confident
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed early trade
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09:07 EDTUBS U.S. brokers, asset managers analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley said the rate hike is data-dependent
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the mend
U.S. equities are on the mend following European stocks higher in the wake of the China rate cut, which left shares there unimpressed. While the Shanghai Comp fell 1.6%, the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.6% higher. That has left the Dow 105-points firmer, S&P up 10-points and NASDAQ up 17-points in pre-open action. Solid results for Morgan Stanley with a a 59% rise in profits thanks to M&A and trading revenues also helped buoy stocks after lifting MS 2.6%. Hasbro rallied 8.5% after demand for toys relating to movie tie-ins. On a bright note, former Senator, Goldman CEO and disgraced MF Global exec Jon Corzine is considering launching a hedge fund, according to the WSJ.
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to -0.42 in March
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to point to higher open
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08:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
Treasury Market Outlook: Yields backed up slightly from overnight lows after a weak start for equities in Asia was accompanied by a slash in Chinese RRR rates by a full percent. Despite obvious headwinds in Europe, shares rebounded there Bunds still retained a safe-haven bid and peripheral spreads narrowed. Treasury yields are up across the board, led by the long-end, with marginal curve steepening the result. The T-note yield snapped back from Asian lows of 1.855% to 1.885% before stalling again. With little on the docket today outside of the Chicago Fed national activity index, this week's focus will remain on the heavy earnings calendar which will overwhelm a thin slate of economic data, nothing today or Tuesday, and with little to speak of in terms of supply or Fed commentary. The week's data calendar has March existing home sales (Wednesday), new home sales and the flash Markit PMI (Thursday), and durable goods (Friday).
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied nearly $3/bbl
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTEMC Corporation to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTNational Association of Theater Owners to hold a conference
CinemaCon 2015 is being held in Las Vegas on April 20-23.
07:15 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTFutures higher on China central bank move
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06:52 EDTIMF official says Greece talks gained momentum, Reuters reports
Greece's negotiations with its lenders have gained some momentum but are still a long way from being completed, the International Monetary Fund's European head was quoted as saying by a German newspaper, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:49 EDTChina's central bank cuts reserve requirement, Reuters says
China's central bank yesterday reduced the reserve requirement ratio for the country's banks by one percentage point to 18.5%, effective today, the central bank announced, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:13 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 20
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05:40 EDTThe Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged
The Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged in April's cabinet report. The report said that the economy continues to recover in a moderate growth trend, and notes that improvements are being seen in the corporate sector.
April 19, 2015
12:32 EDTChina cuts reserve requirement for commercial banks, WSJ says
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April 18, 2015
12:02 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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12:02 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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12:02 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
March Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
12:02 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
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12:02 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
March Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.045M
12:02 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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12:02 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
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April 17, 2015
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning was reported today, highlighted by the sale of 5k total in May 129.5/June 131 call diagonals (selling May) in two 2.5k tranches on 10-year futures. There were also buyers of 6k in June 128.5/127/126 put butterflies, 4k in May 129+ puts, 2k in May 129 puts and 2k in July 128/26+/125+ put butterflies. On the bullish side was a buyer of 5k in May 130.5 calls. June 10s are 1.5-ticks lower near 129-205 compared to the session range of 129-31 to 129-125.
13:30 EDTEnergy Action: Baker-Hughes reported its weekly well count
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13:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: Another round off sluggish data this week, on top of the disappointing March jobs report from April 3, has seen a couple of more defectors from the June rate hike camp. Several FOMC members also appear to be getting cold feet regarding prospective action at mid-year. Home sales and durable goods data highlight a thin calendar next week, with Q1 GDP released on April 29. And Survey medians suggest Fed hawks won't have much ammunition to support their case. Indeed, the projected slump in Q1 GDP growth to a mere 1.1% clip, half of the already sluggish 2.2% Q4 rate, might be transitory, but it should be real enough to keep the Fed sidelined in June.
12:55 EDTTreasury Dealer meeting agenda for the May refunding was announced
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12:40 EDTCleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.2% in March,
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12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back above pre-CPI levels
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11:49 EDTWallachBeth biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analyst Bob Ai, along with a Key Opinion Leader, discusses heart failure and potential treatment options, focusing on gene therapy on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 3 pm.
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more put liquidation
Euro$ interest rate options update: more put liquidation has been spotted with the sale of 20k in September 93/95 put spreads with December 91/92 put spreads. Also there was a purchase of 5k in Blue June 73/75/77 broken put butterflies. Underlying rate futures remain under pressure, falling 0.5-5.0 ticks out the curve, as some price back in a September hike.
10:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped 14% higher to 14.42
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10:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester reiterated that the Q1 slowdown is transitory
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
Treasury Action: yields pulled back from highs as stocks waded deeper into a sea of red, amid aforementioned jitters over Europe, Bloomberg outages, China margin measures and September Fed hike advisor talk, along with the uptick in core CPI. Into those headwinds stocks have extended their slide to -1.5% on NASDAQ, overshadowing the upticks in U. Michigan and LEI. The T-note yield stalled out over 1.91% and has since pulled back under 1.88% after shooting up from the 1.86% area following CPI. The 2s-10s spread has actually narrowed 2 bp to +137 bp as a result.
10:20 EDTThe Michigan sentiment April bounce to 95.9
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10:15 EDTU.S. April consumer sentiment jumped to 2.9 points to 95.9
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up slightly, then dipped
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10:15 EDTU.S. leading economic index rose 0.2% to 121.4 in March
U.S. leading economic index rose 0.2% to 121.4 in March from February's 121.2 (revised from 121.4). Six of the 10 components made positive contributions, led by jobeless claims (0.22%) and the yield curve (0.21%). Three of the components declined, including building permits (-0.18%). The stock price component was flat.
10:00 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish put selling
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09:40 EDTMarket sharply lower after consumer inflation data
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09:30 EDTA Global Advisor report favoring a September Fed hike
A Global Advisor report favoring a September Fed hike is apparently doing the rounds, saying that one-off factors have held the economy back in Q1, but this won't keep the Fed from a lift-off after postponing from June. This could be helping amplify the rebound in yields and the dollar, along with drop in stocks, though it does rather state the obvious and fits with the tenor of recent Fedspeak.
09:05 EDTThe March U.S. CPI gains of 0.2%
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09:05 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals following the CPI data
Treasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals following the CPI data which showed the core rate creeping closer to the Fed's 2.0% target, rising to a 1.8% y/y pace from 1.7% previously. And, breakeven rates continue to rise, paced by the front- and intermediate-maturities. The 5-year BE has climbed to 169 bps, its widest of the year (and since the fall of 2014), versus 165 bps. The spread was as low as 107 bps on January 6 as deflation fears gripped the markets.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities extended declines
U.S. equities extended declines after the uptick in core CPI after already sinking with Europe, as the Greek fillabuster continues to undermine confidence in the region and German yields continue to evaporate. The Dow is 140-points lower, S&P sank 13-points and NASDAQ sank 34-points ahead of the opening bell. Though the Shanghai Comp rose 2.2% to a 7-year high, Chinese equity index futures plunged as much as 5% after regulators moved to cut margin trading loopholes and allow lending of shares for short-selling to help rebalance the frothy markets. Japan's N-225 sank 1.17% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.9% lower and Athens is off 2.1%. Markets remained jittery overnight as well after a several hour universal outage at Bloomberg terminals began in early European trade, leading to old fashioned phone calling. In corporate earnings news, GE sank after posting $13.6 B net loss in part tied to the divestment of its $16 B finance unit. AMD sank 12% after a miss and poor guidance, while AMEX revenues came up short.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took another dive
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08:46 EDTDA Davidson software analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Software Analyst Andrews provides an industry update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 20 at 11 am.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then move higher
FX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then move higher after the slightly hotter core CPI outcome, taking EUR-USD toward 1.0785 from 1.0820, and USD-JPY up to near 119.00 from 118.80. Equity futures continue to imply a lower Wall Street open, while yields moved higher.
08:40 EDTU.S. headline CPI rose 0.2% in March with the core rate up 0.2% as well
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08:33 EDTFutures remain lower heading into market open
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08:27 EDTJefferies healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts discuss orthopedic surgery on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 11 am.
08:20 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 11 am.
08:18 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analysts provide on update on healthcare trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 17 at 10:30 am.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has moderated from Thursday's 2015 high
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has moderated from Thursday's 2015 high over $57.30, falling back into current $56.00 levels. Yesterday's gains were partially attributed to militants taking over an oil terminal in Yemen, while renewed dollar weakness supported as well. This morning however, as OPEC reported a surge in March production, up over 800k bpd versus February, prices have come off the boil, as the global supply glut comes back into focus. RBOB gasoline futures are holding near 2015 highs, trading at $1.92.gallon, though up nearly 7% from weekly lows. Natural gas futures are steady near $2.675/M BTU.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds continued their ascent
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07:47 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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07:45 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting to consider a Report and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would leverage innovative spectrum sharing technologies to make 150 megahertz of contiguous spectrum available in the 3550-3700 MHz band for wireless broadband and other uses at the FCC Washington, D.C. offices on April 17 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar made fresh lows across the board overnight, largely as June (or even 2015) Fed rate hike expectations move closer to zero. EUR-USD printed a new high of 1.0848, despite renewed Greece default/exit concerns, as USD-JPY touched 118.57 lows. The calendar reveals March CPI at 8:30 EDT, followed by preliminary U. of Michigan sentiment, and March leading indicators, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:43 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute to hold a discussion
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07:41 EDTFDA Neurological Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses the current knowledge regarding the conduct of clinical studies and evaluation of clinical study data for flow diverter technology is being held at the FDA Silver Spring, Maryland's offices on April 17 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:33 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a symposium
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07:31 EDTH. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTCantor to hold a forum
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07:06 EDTFutures sharply lower with options set to expire
Stock futures are sharply lower following a string of events that have made headlines. Bloomberg's terminals have suffered a global outage which has caused havoc on trading desks, China has said it will crack down on the use of margin for trading stocks, and Greek leaders are warning that the country's liquidity is drying up, so it needs to make a deal soon with lenders. There was also a call made by a prominent analyst who predicted that the S&P would begin a correction today with the expiration of options which occurs on the third Friday of each month.
06:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 17
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06:01 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has sunk below the Tokyo low
FX Action: USD-JPY has sunk below the Tokyo low in making a low so far of 118.80, and the par is looking set to touch the two-week low that was seen on Wednesday at 118.79. Major Japanese funds has reportedly buyers at sub-119 levels for s second day. Relatively upbeat talk from Japanese policymakers this week have helped support the yen, which logged a near two-year high against the euro earlier in the week. The dollar is also down in the popularity stakes following a run of softer data and mixed Fedspeak. The 200-day moving average at 119.27 marks resistance, ahead of the 20-day moving average at 119.67 and the 50-day moving average at 119.81. The Apr-3 low at 118.72 and the Mar-25 low at 118.33 provide downside markers.
03:18 EDTWeek of 4/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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03:18 EDTWeek of 4/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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02:40 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is softer after peaking at 1.0817
FX Update: EUR-USD is softer after peaking at 1.0817 yesterday. This level and the 20-day moving average at 1.0801 mark near-to resistance. Recent gains have mostly been prompted by a run of softer U.S. data that has all but switched off chances of a Fed tightening as soon as June. The euro, meanwhile, has the benefit of signs of economic recovery, though ECB boss Draghi stressed this week that there would be no tapering of the QE program, while the Greek situation remains a significant wildcard risk factor. USD-JPY has been hovering around 119.00 after forming a base above the near two-week low that was seen on Wednesday at 118.79. Major Japanese funds have reportedly been buyers at sub-119 levels for s second day. USD-CAD struck a three-month low at 1.2251 on a combo of weaker U.S. data, the BoC's downplaying of the oil price shock on the Canadian economy, and a decent rally in oil prices this week. AUD-USD has settled to a consolidation after surging yesterday on the unexpectedly strong Australian March employment report.
April 16, 2015
23:10 EDTSingapore non-oil exports rose 18.5% in March
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15:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: someone fading the rally?
Treasury Option Action: someone fading the rally? It would appear so, or taking profit, with the late sale of 27.2k in June 109.375/109.5 call spreads on 2-year futures. June 2s are 1.7-ticks higher near 109-245 compared to their 109-245 to 109-22 range.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:43 EDTWeek of 4/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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14:43 EDTWeek of 4/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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14:43 EDTWeek of 4/25 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
14:30 EDTMore from Lockhart: June liftoff is still on the table, but it's not his preference
More from Lockhart: June liftoff is still on the table, but it's not his preference, he said in speaking to reporters. He's like to see a later date for the initial rate hike. He reiterated he'd like to see more confirming evidence of the recovery, and that the stronger the evidence, the more orderly the subsequent the policy path will be. The FOMC's expectation is for a more gradual path of rates, but that too is data dependent.
14:20 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The first release on April Michigan Sentiment is out Friday and the headline should improve to 94.0 (median 94.0) from 93.0 in March. Depressed gasoline prices have helped to lift consumer confidence measures through the winter and the already released IBD/TIPP Poll for April increased to 51.3 from 49.1.
14:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: March CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.2%) headline increase for the month with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%). PPI data for March has already been released and revealed a 0.2% headline gain and a 0.2% core increase. Plunging oil prices kept inflation measures depressed through the winter but they leveled off in March and are now beginning to rebound.
14:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has vaulted to $57.36 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has vaulted to $57.36 highs, with late buyers emboldened by the break of the overnight high of $56.66, along with further dollar weakness. The contract now stands at four-month highs.
13:50 EDTFed dove Rosengren: rate hike conditions have not been met
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13:43 EDTAverages nearly unchanged as market looks for direction
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13:25 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are recovering
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13:20 EDTFed hawk Meister wants to hike relatively soon
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13:15 EDTFed's Lockhart would like to see "direct, affirmative evidence in the data
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD continued its downward path
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12:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling
Euro$ interest rate options update: some bearish call selling has been reported, including sales of 5k in Green June 86/87/88 call butterflies and 5k in Front September 96/97/98 call butterflies, along with the bearish purchase of 5k in Front September 95 puts. Underlying rate futures remain under pressure, with the deferreds down by as much as 4.5-ticks.
12:25 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has drifted lower
U.S. VIX equity volatility has drifted lower to the 13.0 area as stocks find some traction from lows, compared to a very tight range of 13.35-12.95. Year lows of 10.28 set on July 3 of 2014 provide the next area of support, with life lows of 8.2 on July 4 1994 seemingly at odds with volatility expected surrounding the Fed rate lift-off later in the year. Compared to 16.66 April highs on the first of the month, this followed suit with the rebound in the S&P 500 from 2,048 lows on the same day to an April high of 2,111. That's a 13.8% gain from flash crash lows of 1,820 back on October 17th. In the meantime, another run at life highs of 2,119.59 set on February 25 doesn't seem much of a stretch, especially if earnings continue to shrug off the Q1 economic slump.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed to rally back to 110.43
FX Action: USD-JPY managed to rally back to 110.43 highs before heading lower, with talk of technically driven sellers stepping in ahead of the overnight high of 119.47, and the 50-day moving average, which currently sits at 119.55. The April 3 low of 118.72 provides initial support, with the March 26 base of 118.33 the next downside target.
11:40 EDTU.S. equities are attempting to base
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced an $18 B 5-year TIPS offering for Thursday
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11:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: it's harder and harder to make a case for a June hike
Fed Policy Outlook: it's harder and harder to make a case for a June hike (analysts've always thought September was the soonest anyway). Softer data and the dovish tone of key Fed officials and policy statements have largely taken mid-year rate liftoff out of the picture. This week's disappointing economic reports, along with the unexpectedly weak March jobs report, will leave policymakers sidelined in June. There's just not enough time over the next two months to make up the erosion. Q4 GDP growth was more than halved from the 5.0% pace of Q3, and Q1 looks to be cut in two as well, with our forecast of a 1.0% clip. Q2 is still quite uncertain, as noted by Fed VC Fischer, but it's not starting off on great footing. Manufacturing growth remains uneven, as indicated by the April Philly Fed and Empire State reports. The housing sector is also not cooperating. Inventories remain bloated with the I/S ratio at a recessionary level. Consumption hasn't benefited much from the oil price drop windfall. And while the labor market has been a major bright spot, there's risk from ongoing erosion in the energy sector. And as for price pressures, at best the Fed will see bottoming, but aren't likely to be convinced yet that inflation is moving to the 2% target given the slow economic growth so far this year.
11:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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11:07 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:07 EDT5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount data reported
5-Yr TIPS Announcement Offering Amount at $18.0 B
10:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields set session highs
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10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed bounce to 7.5
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10:35 EDTFed VC Fischer showed no urgency for a June hike,
Fed VC Fischer showed no urgency for a June hike, but acknowledged the obvious that rates will go up eventually, in a CNBC interview. He didn't want to give any definite timeline and said the Fed didn't really know when it will liftoff since the policy action is data dependent. So far the recovery has been uneven -- there's growth, but it's not spectacular -- with Q1 looking a lot like it did last year with weather impacting. It won't be necessary for inflation to be at the 2% target before the Fed starts to remove accommodation, price pressures just need to be moving toward that goal. He sidestepped questions on whether he's "fearful" about raising rates. He acknowledged it's possible to get things wrong, but he stressed that even with a hike, the Fed's stance will still be expansionary. The dollar is one of many factors that affect the way the economy is behaving. He expects the markets to be forward looking and so should be taking account of the Fed's eventual rate hike, and noted that they cannot depend on the Fed remaining accommodative forever.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 10
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged a touch higher
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10:15 EDTU
U.S. Philly Fed index rose 2.5 points to 7.5 in April, slightly better than expected, after slipping 0.2 points to 5.0 in March. The improvement this month breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines. However, the internals were mixed and take some of the shine off of the report. The employment component jumped back to 11.5 from 3.5 and is the highest since November. The workweek rose to 3.4 from -11.4. But new orders slid to 0.7 from 3.9 and is the lowest print since February 2014. Prices paid dropped further to -7.5 from -3.0, the weakest since June 2009. Prices received increased moderately but remain in contractionary territory at -4.1 versus -6.4 previously. The 6-month general business activity index edged up to 35.5 from 32.0. The future employment index increased to 20.6 from 14.4, with new orders dipping to 30.8 from 34.3 and capital expenditures at 15.8 from 16.4.
10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields inched up from lows
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 46.6
09:44 EDTMarket opens lower after U.S. housing data, Greek debt yield surge
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09:40 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index preview:
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09:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed early positioning
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09:30 EDTThe 2.0% March U.S. housing starts uptick
The 2.0% March U.S. housing starts uptick to a still-weak 926k rate only slightly trimmed the weather-led February plunge to a 908k (was 897k) pace from 1.072 (was 1.081) M in January. Analysts saw the expected big weather rebounds for starts in the Northeast and Midwest, but there were surprising further declines in the West and South. Housing completions also fell further in March, to a 823k nine-month low from an already-weak 850k February rate. Permits fell 5.7% in March to a 1.039 M rate after a 4.0% pop in February to a 1.102 M cycle-high pace from the 1.060 M rate in December and January. Permits are outpacing starts despite the lean March figure, and analysts still expect starts to climb back toward the 1.105 M expansion-high set in November of 2013. Starts under construction, which drives new home construction, rose by a lean 0.6% in March after a small 0.2% (was 0.4%) rise in February. Analysts haven't seen a decline in this measure since May of 2011, though the pace of growth for this important metric clearly slowed in Q1.
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are in the red today
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities are mired in the red
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09:12 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Testing, Inspection & Assurance Conference is being held in London, England on April 16.
09:10 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a symposium
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09:00 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims rise to 294k
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08:55 EDTFedspeak resumes with a vengeance
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08:47 EDTBofA/Merrill hardware/software analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Hardware Analyst Mohan and Software Analyst Rangan discuss the results of BofA/Merrill's Quarterly IT Buyer Survey on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 16 at 11 am.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 2.0% to 926k in March
U.S. housing starts rebounded 2.0% to 926k in March after dropping 15.3% to 908k in February (revised from 897k). Single family starts rose 4.4% after a 15.2% drop previously. Multifamily starts dropped another 2.5% following February's 15.5% decline. Building permits fell 5.7% to 1.039 M from 1.102 M (revised from 1.092 M previously). The data are a little below estimate.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims edged up 12k to 294k in the week ended April 11
U.S. initial jobless claims edged up 12k to 294k in the week ended April 11, from a revised 282k previously (was 281k). The four week moving average rose to 282.75k from 282.50k, while continuing claims fell 40k to 2,268k from revised 2,308.
08:39 EDTBofA/Merrill Rates & FX Research analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:37 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 4/11 Jobless Claims at 294K vs. consensus of 280K
08:34 EDTFutures remain lower following housing and jobless claims data
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08:25 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: Housing starts are expected to rebound 17.1% to a 1,050k unit pace in March following the -17.0% plunge to 897k in February. This compares to a recent high of 1,098k in July and a low of 521k in April '09. Forecast risk is upward from here, however, as analysts rebound from February weather disruptions. Permits are expected at 1,080k in February from 1,102k in February. preview for more.
08:25 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:16 EDTNew York Federal Reserve holds a press briefing
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08:15 EDTBernanke may be meddling in the Fed's exit strategy
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08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude took a break
Energy Action: NYMEX crude took a break from its sharp three-day rally, easing back into current $55.35, after making 2015 highs of $56.66 on Wednesday. The recent rally comes a U.S. production slows, though inventories rose to new record levels in the U.S., as reported by the EIA on Wednesday. OPEC production remains at high levels, and the market continues to be oversupplied on a global basis. As a result, further oil price gains may be more difficult to achieve in the near term, with sources now seeing a trading range centered on the $55 level developing. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures have come off their one-month high near $1.84/gallon posted yesterday, and are currently trading at $1.905, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.41, up a penny from a week ago, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are near one-week highs, currently trading at $1.61/M BTU.
08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:50 EDTBernanke agreed to become a senior advisor to hedge fund Citadel
Bernanke agreed to become a senior advisor to hedge fund Citadel in a deal confirmed by the NY Times after the close last night. Bernanke said he chose Citadel in part because it is not regulated by the Fed and he would not do any lobbying, having declined offers from several banks. In his past incarnation of Fed Chairman he has been accused by some critics as creating the world's largest hedge fund after 3 rounds of QE created a $3 trl balance sheet, so it is a little ironic (if not appropriate) that he will advise one of the largest such funds. He will continue to blog for the Brookings Institute as well, as he spreads the sage advice around.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook:
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07:33 EDTBoston Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:32 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on the economy
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester speaks on the economy and monetary policy before the Forecasters Club of New York in New York on April 16 at 1:10 pm.
07:31 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion
Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s Finance Minister since 2009, discusses key economic policy issues in Germany and in Europe in a discussion entitled, "Eurozone at a Crossroads", being held in Washington, D.C. on April 16 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
07:29 EDTEuropean Central Bank Vice President to speak at conference
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07:27 EDTFederal Reserve Board Member Participates in IMF Conference
Federal Reserve Chair Stanley Fischer and European Central Bank Board Member Peter Praet speak on a panel at the International Monetary Fund's Conference, "Rethinking Macro Policy III", being held in Washington, D.C. on April 16 at 10:40 am.
07:26 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing
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07:24 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:23 EDTFederal Energy Regulatory Commission to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FERC Washington, D.C. offices on April 16 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:19 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:18 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion
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07:12 EDTBarclays to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a symposium
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07:10 EDTFutures lower ahead of economic data
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 16
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05:53 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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05:05 EDTFX Action: The yen has been trading mixed
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD's post-weak U.S. data rebound extended
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April 15, 2015
16:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts bought a net $4.1 B in total assets
U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts bought a net $4.1 B in total assets in February after purchasing $51.0 B in January (revised down from $88.3 B). Also, overseas accounts picked up $9.8 B in net long term assets in February after selling $27.4 B previously (revised from -$27.2 B). Accounts sold $6.3 B in Treasury coupons, while buying $9.4 B in corporates, $8.9 B in agencies, and $800 M in stocks. China was the largest seller of Treasuries at $15.4 B, followed by the U.K. at $15.1 B, Japan at $14.2 B, and Russia at $12.6 B. The Caribbean and India were the biggest buyers at $10.5 B each.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: In a rather disjointed session, ECB's Draghi pressing for full implementation of QE had the greatest market resonance, lifting both bonds and stocks. Bunds posted a fresh low yield as well. This came after a brief interlude with a confetti-tossing protestor who leapt on to the stage and following rounds of mostly damp data that seemed to defer a Fed hike further into 2015. The dollar turned lower and WTI crude oil prices surged past $56 bbl. The Empire State index sank, as did industrial production, though the NAHB index rose. Fed's Bullard warned of holding to ZIRP for too long, while the Beige Book noted the impact of the dollar, oil and winter on the economy.
14:59 EDTWeek of 4/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:59 EDTWeek of 4/24 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
14:40 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated the economy continued to expand
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14:20 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated the economy continued to expand
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14:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched nearly three-month lows
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are above lows
Treasury Action: yields are above lows in the wake of the Beige Book report, which saw some impact from the dollar, oil and winter, that have provided some headwinds for the economy. The rebound in yields came mainly prior to the report after the European close, providing for some mean reversion after the Bund-led rally earlier. The T-note yield based ahead of 1.87% and rebounded over 1.89%, compared to highs of 1.917%. The 2s-10s spread settled at +139 bp as the 2-year yield remains stuck at 0.500%.
14:14 EDTFed says economic growth moderate to modest from mid-February through end March
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14:03 EDTFed notes economic growth across most regions in Beige Book
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13:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar is on session lows
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13:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has continued its rally,
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13:00 EDTFed's Beige Book preview:
Fed's Beige Book preview: the report should reiterate the weary "moderate growth" mantra on the economy. However, that will belie the mixed results across Districts and sectors as the northeast and south try to recover from some of the weather hits, while lingering impacts from the ports' strike in the west, and difficulties in the oil sector impact more broadly. The job sector should remain a bright spot, the March employment report notwithstanding. Consumer spending should have generally increased. Also, manufacturing likely expanded at varying rates, as noted in the March Beige Book, while services should have extended gains too. Wage pressures likely remained moderate, except for skilled workers in difficult-to-fill positions. Prices probably were mostly steady to slightly higher. The prior report indicated shipping costs had increased due to delays from the ports' strike. There shouldn't be anything in the report that will give the Fed confidence to start rate liftoff anytime soon.
12:40 EDTTreasury Action: yields have settled near lows
Treasury Action: yields have settled near lows even as stocks extended gains, with the belly of the curve outperforming, where yields on 5s and 7s are nearly 3 basis points lower compared to a 1.2 bp decline on the 2-year to the 0.50% area and an 1.5 bp dip in the bond yield to 2.53%. 5s are probing below 1.31%, but are still some way above the 1.239% low struck on payrolls Friday. The 10-year yield has eased below 1.88% and the 2s-10s spread has narrowed back to +137 bp from the +140 bp area, but 5s-30s has steepened to +121 bp as a result. The ECB aiming for full QE implementation has evidently provided the bullish signal to both asset classes (cue confetti), despite mostly weaker headline data.
12:10 EDTGreece downgraded to 'CCC+' from 'B-' by S&P
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: large sale of call condors
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied sharply
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 10
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD spilled below yesterday's low
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10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning included a bearish purchase of 5k in December 87/92/93/95 put condors at a 2x1x1x1 ratio, along with a purchase of 5k in December 91/93 call spreads. The lead June 2015 contract is a half-tick higher at 99.695, while the deferreds are 1-3.5 ticks firmer out the curve. ECB Draghi's commitment to QE appeared to offset mostly weaker data today, leaving both stocks and Treasuries higher.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder confidence index climbed 4 points to 56 in April
U.S. NAHB homebuilder confidence index climbed 4 points to 56 in April after sliding 3 points to 52 in March (revised from 53), though it's still down from 58 in November and December. Gains were across all 3 components. The single family sales index improved to 61 from 58. The future sales index rose to 64 from 59. The index of prospective buyer traffic increased to 41 from 37.
10:03 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
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10:03 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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10:00 EDTThe 0.6% U.S. March industrial production drop
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09:55 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to rise to 54 in April from 53. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:47 EDTStocks rise despite manufacturing, industrial production data missing forecasts
U.S. equity futures were higher throughout the pre-market trading session despite weaker than expected reports on manufacturing in the New York region and industrial production. The Empire State manufacturing report and the industrial production decline were worse than expected but the market showed little reaction as earnings take center stage. The broader market opened in positive territory and the Dow and S&P 500 are both up about 0.5% in early trading. About fifteen minutes after the opening bell, the Dow is up 101 points, the Nasdaq is up 16 points and the S&P is up 11 points.
09:45 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 0.1% growth in Q1 and this automated estimate updated in real time tracks 13 components of GDP growth as they are reported (analysts are still at 1.0%). The project goes back only to the second half of 2011, but in 7 quarters from late 2011 to 2014, its accuracy beat economists 5 out of 7 times, with 1 loss and 1 tie. The model is apparently especially good when the expected growth is less than 1%, according to sources. for more detail.
09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell back
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended declines
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09:20 EDTFed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles
Fed's Bullard said holding zero rates for too long risks asset price bubbles, in his remarks on financial regulation from Washington. And added that a gradual rise in rates would mitigate that risk, while still providing "significant" policy accommodative. He will reserve judgment on inflation until oil prices stabilize, but said a drop in inflation expectations bears watching and he'd be concerned if they fell from 2%. Labor markets are approaching more normal conditions and he forecasts growth of about 3% over the medium term. Bullard isn't a voter.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities are holding their own
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09:00 EDTThe Empire State April drop to -1.19
The Empire State April drop to -1.19 extended the small March decline to 6.90 to leave the index just above the 19-month low of -1.23 in December, and well below the 27.41 five-year high in September. The ISM-adjusted Empire State measure remained at the lean 51.0 March figure, versus a 47.5 one-year low in December and a 55.3 two-year high back in June. The 2015 drop in producer sentiment in the face of unsustainably high inventories and the petro-headwind tracks the pull-back for GDP growth to the estimated 1.0% rate in Q1 from a lean 2.2% Q4 pace, and the Industrial production slowdown to a flat Q1 figure from a 4.4% Q4 clip. Analysts expect the Philly Fed to remain at March's lean 5.0 reading. Analysts expect a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0, a small Dallas Fed uptick to -17.0 from -17.4, an ISM rise to 52.0 from 51.5, and an unchanged 56.5 ISM-NMI reading. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to remain at the same weak 50 figure seen in March, versus 52 in January and February, 53 in December, 55 over the four months ending in November, and a 56 cycle-high last July.
08:55 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs
Treasury Action: yileds rolled over from highs after the Empire State negative print capped the earlier sell-off, though stocks are taking the news in stride as the Fed is kept arms length from its tightening plans. The T-note yield stalled under 1.92% and eased briefly below 1.90%, but the markets await the ECB press conference as well, which may take on greater importance. The 2s-10s spread is trading just inside +140 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 8 points to -1.19 in April after slipping 0.88 points to 6.90 in March. The index has generally sagged since jumping almost 20 points to 27.4 in September, and hit a low of -1.23 in December. The employment component was halved to 9.57 from 18.56, with the workweek at -4.26 from 5.15. New orders declined to -6.0 from -2.39. Prices paid rose to 19.15 from 12.37 and prices received falling to 4.26 from 8.25. The 6-month general business conditions index improved to 37.06 from 30.72, after hitting a recent high of 48.35 in January. The future employment index slipped to 22.34 from 28.87, with new orders at 33.57 from 26.31, and capital expenditures at 24.47 from 18.56. The current conditions figures are much weaker than expected and should support Treasuries.
08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following manufacturing data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the Empire manufacturing report. The report had a reading of -1.19 versus expectations of +7.17. The next set of data points are due out at 9:15 am ET, when reports on industrial production and capacity utilization are due to be released.
08:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard
Fedspeak resumes with St. Louis Fed moderate Bullard who will be discussing the economy and monetary policy from 9 ET. He will be followed by Fed VC Fischer who will speak on a panel on macro-prudential tools at the IMF/World Bank meetings from 10:40 ET. Then Richmond Fed hawk Lacker mulls "Investing in People for Long-Term Prosperity" after the close from 19:30 ET.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
Energy Action: NYMEX crude touched levels last seen on February 3, peaking at $54.19 following IEA forecasts of firmer demand in the current quarter. The rally was helped by short covering in the May Brent contract, which expires later today. A firmer dollar has limited price gains into the N.Y. open, while China's slower growth, and prospects for additional Iran supply, should a nuclear agreement be made, have offset the rally to a degree as well. RBOB gasoline futures are up nearly 2 cents/gallon to $1.87, leaving U.S. average retail prices nearly unchanged over the past week, at $2,39/gallon. Natural gas futures are up 0.75% at $2.55/M BTU, though still near recent trend lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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08:14 EDTRichmond Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on economic outlook
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08:12 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:11 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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08:10 EDTHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs to hold a hearing
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08:08 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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08:07 EDTThe Bank of Canada Governor Poloz holds a press conference
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08:00 EDTSt Louis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on the economy
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07:59 EDTEuropean Central Bank President to hold a press conference
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07:52 EDTJMP Securities to hold a field trip
Singapore Insurance Field Trip travels throughout Singapore on April 15-16.
07:51 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:43 EDTLevy Economics Institute to hold a conference
Is Financial Regulation Holding Back Finance for the Global Recovery Conference is being held at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on April 15-16.
07:42 EDTMecklerMedia to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.3% in data released earlier, along side a 3.1% decline in the purchase index and a 1.8% drop in the refinancing index for the week ended April 10. This followed the Easter break and mortgage rates rose slightly with the 30-year fixed averaging 1 basis point higher at 3.87%, a still historically lean level though up from recent lows. Last week the Fed minutes confirmed the removal of the trigger word "patience", but on balance remained fairly dovish. The Fed continues to be concerned about the housing sector, even as employment continues to improve and wage growth seems to base. For more detail on housing, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:39 EDTInternational Society for Heart & Lung Transplantation to hold annual meeting
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07:37 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTGood start to earnings season lifts futures
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07:15 EDTFX Update: That sinking feeling returned to the euro
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06:35 EDTFX Update: There euro came under pressure
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06:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has ebbed back under 119.50
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 15
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05:54 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
03:15 EDTBoJ boss Kuroda said that QQE is having the intended effects
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03:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading firmer
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01:45 EDTChina Q1 GDP dipped to its lowest level since 2009
China Q1 GDP dipped to its lowest level since 2009, coming in at 7.0% y/y. This met expectations, though there will be some relief that a sub-7% outcome was avoided following the unexpected 15% dive in March export data. However, a slew of March data releases all came in below expectations, with industrial production at 5.6% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y, retail sales at 10.2% y/y, down form 10.7% y/y, and fixed investment at 13.5%, down from 13.8%. The data has a subduing affect on stock markets in Asia, while the China proxy currency, the AUD, traded lower.
April 14, 2015
22:15 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:15 EDTWeek of 4/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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17:15 EDT.
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15:45 EDTFed Board discount meeting minutes showed an unchanged 0.75% rate
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary: Treasuries rallied
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15:20 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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15:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The Empire State kicks off April producer sentiment data Wednesday and should show a 8.0 (median 6.8) headline following a decline to 6.9 in March from 7.8 in February and 10.0 in January. Producer sentiment declined broadly in March, pulling the ISM-adjusted measure for the month down to 50 from 52 in February and January.
15:10 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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14:01 EDTAverages are mixed as volume remains light
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12:45 EDTU.S. stocks have unwound earlier losses
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12:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on one-week highs of $53.49,
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was very well received
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:25 EDTThe firm 0.3% February U.S. business inventory rise
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained sharply lower
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10:09 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
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09:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD cracked the 1.2500 mark
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09:45 EDTIMF trimmed its U.S. growth forecast to a 3.1% pace from its prior 3.6%
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09:41 EDTMaxim energy/oil analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Rapidan Group Founder Bob McNally, discuss crude oil on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 14 at 1 pm.
09:36 EDTWedbush analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:34 EDTMarket slightly higher after solid earnings from banks, J&J
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09:33 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended lower
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09:25 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. March PPI bounce
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09:24 EDTBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System holds closed meeting
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09:10 EDTU.S Business Inventories Preview
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09:10 EDTThe 0.9% March U.S. retail sales bounce
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities extended declines
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI final demand rose 0.2% in March with the core rate up 0.2%
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell following the data
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: post-data swings
Treasury Action: post-data swings have sent stocks and yields lower after retail sales came in just shy of median forecasts, while core PPI was above average. Those knee-jerk moves could be partly the "good is bad" view vis-a-vis the Fed, especially after the uptick in core PPI, though that makes the drop in yields harder to explain. The T-note yield reversed from 1.93% session highs to lows of 1.88%, and clearly the "whisper number" on the retail report was higher. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed 2-3 basis points to +137 bp. Look for some mean reversion after the dust settles.
08:41 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization" with Administrator of the FAA, Michael Huerta on April 14 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
08:35 EDTFutures move lower following economic data
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08:35 EDTProducer Price Index PPI data reported
Producer Price Index PPI up 0.2% for the month
08:35 EDTProducer Price Index PPI less food & energy data reported
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08:30 EDTCitigroup technology analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:23 EDTCitigroup analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:20 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
U.S. PPI Preview: March PPI data should show a 0.3% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the core figure down -0.1% (median 0.1%). This follows February figures which revealed a -0.5% headline with a matching -0.5% decline for the core that month. The leveling off in oil prices should lend some support to the report after four months of headline declines through the winter.
08:15 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 1.0% in the week ended April 11
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08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $52.40
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $52.40, up from overnight lows of $51.80, and just off $52.64 highs. Support came from an EIA report, which forecasts U.S. shale production to fall 45k bpd in May, the first drop in four years. U.S. shale oil production remains just shy of 5 M bpd however, and sources suggest the small drop in production will not provide much more upside for oil prices. The next potential market mover for oil will be China GDP data, due tonight, where a soft reading could dent prices significantly. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures are up a penny, over $1.82/gallon, while natural gas futures climbed off their multi-year low of $2.475/M BTU, currently trading at $2.53.
08:00 EDTHilsenrath is looking for "green shoots" in March retail sales
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTFutures lower ahead of earnings and economic data
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07:17 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks at a forum
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks before a public town hall forum being held in Winona, Minnesota on April 14 at 8 pm.
07:16 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
Career Chat entitled, "A Career in Fixed Income" with Managing Principal at Payden & Rygel, Justin Bullion, who discusses how to best position oneself for a career in fixed income is being held in Boston on April 14 at 4:15 pm.
07:16 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
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07:11 EDTiPro-Oklahoma to hold a conference
Information Professionals for Oklahoma (IPro) 2015 Conference is being held in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on April 14-15.
07:06 EDTGlobal Hunter Securities to hold a conference
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07:06 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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05:57 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.40 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.02%, DAX down 0.56%. WTI Crude oil is recently at 52.15, natural gas up 0.48%, gold at $1188 an ounce, copper down 4.29%.
02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has remained above yesterday's four-week low
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April 13, 2015
22:55 EDTJapan officials distanced themselves from advisor Hamada's remarks
Japan officials distanced themselves from advisor Hamada's remarks after he reportedly said that USD-JPY closer to 105.00 purchasing power parity levels was "appropriate." It was never very clear if that was a hypothetical to begin with in early NY previously, but just to be sure Japan Economics Minister Amari had "no comment" on FX levels, leaving it up to the market to decide so long as there were not volatile moves. Japan Finance Minister Aso refused to comment directly on Hamada's view of the weak yen, expecting the G20 to discuss the uneven nature of global growth, while planning to tell the G20 that Japan is taking a turn for the better. USD-JPY has slipped back below 120.00, but has been in a tight 120.17-119.71 range so far, while the Nikkei is slightly lower.
22:25 EDTSingapore's GDP grew 2.1% y/y in Q1
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17:14 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:14 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
17:14 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:30 EDTNY Fed's Potter discussed much maligned drop in liquidity
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15:10 EDTCitigroup metals/mining analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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14:54 EDTCitigroup commodities strategists hold analyst/industry conference call
Commodities Strategists Ivan Szpakowski and Aakash Doshi provide an outlook on the 2Q15 Commodity Market on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 15 at 9 am.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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14:14 EDTAverages reverse in afternoon trading, Nasdaq slightly higher
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14:10 EDTU.S. Treasury reported a $52.9 B budget deficit in March
U.S. Treasury reported a $52.9 B budget deficit in March, a little worse than expected. It compares to a $36.9 B shortfall in the same month last year for a 43.4% erosion. However, it's much improved from the $106.5 B red ink amount posted in March 2013. Receipts only rose 8.5% y/y (about half the 16.0% y/y pick up in 2014) and outlays were up 13.6% y/y (versus -13.6% y/y in 2014). The deficit for the fiscal year has risen 6.3% y/y to $439.5 B versus a $413.3 B shortfall for the same 6 month period in 2014.
14:05 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Treasury Budget Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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13:55 EDTCorporate earnings announcements come to the forefront this week
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13:55 EDTU.S Business Inventories Preview
U.S Business Inventories Preview: February inventory data is out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.3%) increase on the month with sales remaining unchanged. This follows respective January figures of unchanged and -2.0%. February retail inventories will also accompany the report and should be down 0.1% in February. Data in line with our forecast will leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.36 for a second month.
13:55 EDTFrom the Fed Twitter files: "I received a suspicious-looking e-mail
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13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: more bearish leaning at long-end
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13:31 EDTUnited States ratings affirmed by Fitch
Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States' Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AAA'. Fitch has also affirmed the issue ratings on the United States' senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds at 'AAA'. The Rating Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable. "The U.S.'s 'AAA' rating is underpinned by the sovereign's unparalleled financing flexibility as the issuer of the world's pre-eminent reserve currency and benchmark fixed-income asset, and as home to the world's deepest and most liquid capital markets," the rating agency said.
13:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mixed plate
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13:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is light today
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12:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: underlying futures extended gains
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY slipped briefly under 120.00
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was well received
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was well received, particularly the longer dated tranche, and thanks to strong indirect bidding. The $24 B 3-month offering priced at 0.025%, right on the screws and only slightly cheaper than last week's 0.020%. There were $97.0 B in bids for a healthy 4.07 cover, though below the prior 4.23 and the 4.15 average. However, indirect bidders took 33.8%, almost double the 19.4% previously and better than the 21.6% average. In fact it's the highest since February 9. The $24 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.105%, just through the 0.11% at the bid deadline, though up from the 0.095% last week. Bids totaled $103 B for a strong 4.32 cover, and much better than last week's 4.05 and the 4.07 average. It's the highest since February 17. Indirect bidders were awarded 52.5%, double the previous 24.1% and well over the 33.7% average. It is the tops since October 2013.
11:55 EDTTreasury Curve Action: a round trip on yields
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11:15 EDTTreasury Supply: a $30 B 4- will bill auction was announced for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at 1.2646
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11:05 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:05 EDTU.S. equities extended their rebound
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10:40 EDTBen the Blogger is back: Bernanke discusses why rates are so low
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded briefly over $53/bbl,
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09:38 EDTMarket looking to extend weekly winning streak
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09:35 EDTChain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound:
Chain Stores Restrain U.S. Retail Sales Rebound: Chain store sales slowed in March to signal downside risk to U.S. retail sales, which should otherwise receive a March lift from gains in gasoline, vehicles, and building materials alongside high confidence levels. Analysts expect March gains of 0.6% for the headline and 0.4% ex-autos after three straight months of sales declines. Gasoline prices rose 5% in March, vehicle sales rebounded to a 17.1 M pace from 16.2 M, and building materials have room to reverse a 2.3% February plunge, though analysts have a continued headwind from bad weather and delayed refund distributions.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe
Treasury Action: Treasuries are recovering from selling pressure in Europe overnight thanks to gains in German Bunds. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.94% after testing 1.98% earlier on spillover from the drop in the 10-year Bund to 0.148%, which would be a new closing nadir. Consolidation is the name of the game today ahead of key data on retail sales and inflation. Stronger than expected sales and price figures should keep yields biased higher, especially after light domestic demand for last week's auctions. The disappointing March jobs report is now in the rearview mirror with forecasts for a Q2 rebound in growth now the story, and hence supporting risk of Fed rate liftoff by September.
09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are marginally lower
U.S. equities are marginally lower after a mixed performance in Asia and Europe to start the week. The Dow is 41-points lower, S&P fell 5-points and NASDAQ is off 2-points ahead of the opening bell. This followed more gains in China with the Shanghai +2.1% and HK Hang Seng +2.7% higher amid fewer trading restrictions (despite a collapse in China's trade surplus), though Japan's Nikkei fell 0.01%. Europe is mixed, but the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.1% higher even after reports that Greece's Tsipras is considering new elections if talks fail - Athens at +1.0% strangely appears to like that idea. Qualcomm is nearly 5% higher after reports of activist investors eying a spinoff of the firm's chip unit. Apple gained marginally on solid pre-orders for their watch. Financial sector earnings are on tap later in the week from the likes of JPM, BofA, Schwab, AMEX, Blackrock, Citi and Goldman, which will all be closely considered. The Treasury budget was rolled over from last week and will be considered late in the session.
08:25 EDTFormer Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient
Former Fed VC Blinder said the Fed can be very patient as it mulls a rate increase, since inflation won't return to its 2% target until 2017, according to an Op-Ed in the WSJ. He cited core inflation ranging from 1.3-1.7% and headline inflation near zero, only a slight increase in wages and long term unemployed as reasons for "patience" to remain a working concept even after it was banished from the statement. Blinder also cites the Q1 "speed bump" in growth and dollar appreciation, along with the lack of a feared "bubble" from extended ZIRP. Thus, "Monetary policy will eventually begin to normalize. But not in June, and maybe not in September. Timing, they say, is everything. This is a time for patience," said the Princeton professor.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker after European sovereigns gave up earlier gains. The 10-year yield has climbed several basis points to 1.975%. Trading volume has been strong to open the week. Equities are mixed amid ongoing worries over a Greek accident. Chinese trade data was on the disappointing side, though the Shanghai index climbed on hopes of more stimulus. This will be a busy week for the U.S. calendar with a number key indicators on tap, along with the Beige Book and a plethora of Fedspeak, and as earnings announcements pick up steam. Today's slate is thin, though with just the March Treasury budget, which was delayed from Friday due to a technical glitch.
07:45 EDTSF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals
SF Fed dove Williams: as the economy nears it goals the case for keeping rates low for longer weakens, said the dovish voter late Sunday. Williams has been leaning toward a timely hike the past few months as the economy has recovered and he is weighing moving early at a gradual pace rather than acting later, more aggressively. Williams did say that "right now" the U.S. economy still needs accommodative policy, but he forecasts full employment in 6-12 months, and sees risk receding of a return to zero rates as the economy improves. "More importantly, analysts are really thinking about a path, analysts are talking about moving interest rates from zero to a normal level over several years. So even if the economy got some bad shocks, really you are probably just talking about flattening that path out a bit, or maybe raising rates more slowly," he said. To drive his point home, he apparently brandished a T-shirt declaring: "Monetary policy - It's data dependent."
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTFutures quiet ahead of data-filled week
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07:19 EDTNYSSA to hold a forum
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07:14 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTNat'l Foundation for Infectious Diseases to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar put in another bout of outperformance
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06:38 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 13
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06:35 EDTChina's exports sank 15% in March, Reuters reports
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05:58 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
03:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy
FX Update: EUR-USD found some buoyancy after sinking from a 1.1035 peak last Monday to a 1.0567 low on Friday, which was a big move. Resistance is marked at 1.0683 and 1.0700, and the 20-day moving average is at 1.0806. USD-JPY recouped most of Friday's losses in making a peak of 120.50 before settling around 120.35. Friday's low at 120.05 and the 20-day moving average at 119.97 mark key near-term support levels, below which would swing recent lows near 119.50 and the 50-day moving average at 119.71 into scope. Cable logged a fresh low at 1.4566, and the pound also saw losses against the euro and yen. Sterling's underperformance is reflective of the market starting to discount risks posed by the May-7 general election in the UK. AUD-USD dropped quite sharply, to a one-week low at 0.7580, down one big figure from the intraday high. The move was triggered by a big miss in China trade data, with exports down 15% in March, which sparked speculation of a sub-7.0% outcome in Wednesday's GDP data..
April 11, 2015
14:09 EDTBofA/Merrill REITs analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
REITs-Apartent & Student Housing Analyst Galan, along with Jay Denton, Vice President of Axiometrics and Matthew Lawton, Executive Managing Director of HFF, provide an update on the apartment and student housing industry fundamentals ahead of the 1Q15 earnings season on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 14 at 11 am.
10:31 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 95.0
10:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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10:31 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
March Housing Starts Permits will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.085M
10:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
March Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 78.7%
10:31 EDTIndustrial Production to be reported at 09:15
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10:31 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTBusiness Inventories to be reported at 10:00
February Business Inventories will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.2% for the month
10:31 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level to be reported at 09:00
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10:31 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTRetail Sales to be reported at 08:30
March Retail Sales will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.1% for the month
10:31 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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10:31 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
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April 10, 2015
18:11 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 10:40
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18:11 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Lockhart Speech to be released at 13:00
18:11 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 13:30
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:10 EDTU.S. Treasury Budget Preview
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14:35 EDTFed Beige Book preview: look for the Fed to reiterate moderate growth
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14:29 EDTAverages near session highs in afternoon trading
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14:20 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:20 EDTFed uber-dove Kocherlakota balked at raising rates
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13:15 EDTFedspeak resumes next week
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12:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is rallying
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is rallying into the weekend, up nearly $1.50/bbl from session lows, currently trading at $51.71 highs. Sources say growing uncertainty over the return of Iranian oil to the market has risen, following Iran's demands that all sanctions be dropped immediately on the signing of a nuclear agreement. The West is calling for gradual reductions in sanctions. This, along with short covering after a week which saw the crude contract drop as much as 8% from highs to lows, has driven prices higher.
11:25 EDTTreasury Curve Action: long-end gave up
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10:25 EDTStill more curious comments from Fed hawk Lacker:
Still more curious comments from Fed hawk Lacker: he doesn't see a problem with hiking rates, only to move back to zero if needed. He also claims "there was a pretty substantial amount" of support for a June hike at the last FOMC meeting. One could argue that start-stop policy might lack a little on the credibility front, while the markets still aren't buying what he selling on a June hike.
10:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are on the rise
Euro$ interest rate futures are on the rise with the better tone in the rate complex in the wake of weak import prices and dollar gains, which are providing price dampening pressures that should help keep the Fed sidelined for now. Though Fed hawk Lacker came out swinging on a June hike earlier, markets are disinclined to believe his minority view and will hear the other extreme from dove Kocherlakota shortly. The June 2015 contract is flat at 99.685, but the deferreds are up to 4.5-ticks firmer out the curve. Dec 2015 is implying a yield of 0.635% compared to a 0.580% low on payrolls Friday.
10:09 EDTCitigroup transportation analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:42 EDTMarket begins with quiet open
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09:30 EDTMore from Fed hawk Lacker: negative yields
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09:26 EDTJPMorgan global mining/coal analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide the outlook for global coal and iron ore on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 10 at 10 am.
09:21 EDTJPMorgan LaAm financial institution analyst has analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to drift lower
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09:10 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
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08:55 EDTFed hawk Lacker will be speaking on the economic outlook
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled back slightly
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08:55 EDTFed hawk Lacker: case for hike in June will remain strong
Fed hawk Lacker: case for hike in June will remain strong, while the drop in oil prices and the rising dollar will be transitory. He continues to expect core inflation to move back toward its 2% target this year and repeated the view that the weather dented economic data of late. Otherwise, his speech was a repeat of one made on March 31.
08:51 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices fell 0.3% in March with export prices up 0.1%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields spilled lower
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08:43 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks at convention
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08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell from session highs over 1.2650
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08:20 EDTU.S. Import and Export Prices Preview
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08:15 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude ranged between $50.93, and $50.08
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly higher
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07:28 EDTFutures quiet as market tries to end week higher
U.S. equity futures are quiet this morning, investors have little reason to move off the sidelines, given the lack of news flow. Trading volume has been light all week, as the market has spent most of the last several days in consolidation mode. The market has a chance to close higher for the week after finishing in the black last week . Investors will be looking to next week, when some of the nation’s largest banks begin to report their first quarter earnings.
07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Another day, another lower handle for EUR-USD. The pairing is on new three week lows of 1.0580 as the session gets underway, as technical, ECB QE, and Greece concerns all conspire against the single currency. USD-JPY was heavier on the back of EUR-JPY selling, as cable followed the euro lower, touching fresh, nearly five-year lows of 1.4608. USD-CAD was supported over 1.2600 on softer oil prices, and on concerns over a weaker Canadian jobs report, due this morning at 8:30 EDT. The U.S. calendar is light, with just March import/export prices on deck at 8:30 EDT.
07:15 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
Discussion entitled, "Defining the Tax Base: The Real Challenge For Tax Reform" will be held in Washington, D.C. on April 10 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:12 EDTRichmond Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on economic outlook
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07:10 EDTFDA Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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06:55 EDTGreece makes IMF payment but outlook still uncertain, Reuters says
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06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended south to a new three-week lows
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06:48 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 10
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April 9, 2015
21:34 EDTWeek of 4/13 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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21:34 EDTWeek of 4/22 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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16:42 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
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16:42 EDTWeek of 4/17 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
12:02 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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16:41 EDTWeek of 4/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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15:20 EDTU.S. Import and Export Prices Preview
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15:15 EDTU.S. Treasury Budget Preview
U.S. Treasury Budget Preview: March treasury data is out Friday and should reveal a -$44 B (-$43.0 B) deficit for the month which compares to a -$36.9 B deficit in March of '14. Analysts expect receipts to be $234 B, up 8.7% y/y, with outlays of $278 B, up 10.2% y/y.
14:35 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
Canada Housing Starts Preview: Analysts expect starts, due Friday, to improve to a 170.0k unit pace in March (median +175k) from the 156.3k rate in February. The economies of Canada's energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. Analysts expect slower activity in those markets to continue. But mortgage rates are lean, which may have boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: bonds are likely to limp into the weekend
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14:26 EDTAverages spending day consolidating
Stocks are little changed after seesawing earlier, having begun the session in positive territory and then crossing into negative ground before regaining their footing. Despite the movement across the flat line, the averages have moved in a narrow range since the open. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by 5:4 and oil prices are higher by over 2%.
14:25 EDTCanada Employment Preview
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B bond reopening was a dog
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12:40 EDTU.S. 30-year technicals: tightly range bound
U.S. 30-year technicals: tightly range bound heading into reopening results shortly, the bond yield is at the upper end of a 2.575-2.441% range in April. Largely trapped below late-March highs of 2.604%, if that level holds there could be another run at range lows again. Relative yield gaps with Europe and Asian bonds should attract foreign "indirect" demand so long as inflation remains in check. In the bigger picture, 2.87-2.221% defines the 2015 range to-date, while the 100-day m.a. at 2.658% (coinciding with an upper Bollinger band) and 200-day m.a. at 2.932% lie above if everyone heads for the exits at once as feared.
12:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded to 1.2613 highs
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12:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mildly lower
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:15 EDTBrazil outlook revised to Negative from Stable by Fitch
Fitch revised the Rating Outlook on Brazil's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'BBB'. "Brazil's continued economic underperformance, increased macroeconomic imbalances, deterioration of fiscal accounts and a material increase in government indebtedness are increasing downward pressure on the sovereign credit profile," the rating agency said.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $ B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
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11:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: light bullish positioning
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11:00 EDTThe February U.S. wholesale trade report
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10:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: there are only a few IG issues on tap
U.S. corporate bond update: there are only a few IG issues on tap today to compete against the Treasury's $13 B bond reopening. Nederlandse Waterschapsbank launched its $1.25 B 7-year note. ING Groep has a benchmark 10-year, and Alabama Power has a $425 M 10-year. About $9 B priced yesterday. So far this week issuance totals almost $17 B, and Bloomberg reports expectations for the month to total nearly $20 B.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 3
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields held fast near highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales fell 0.2% in February with inventories up 0.3%
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09:55 EDTU.S. equities have snapped back into the green
U.S. equities have snapped back into the green after the shaky open following the uptick in claims. Algorithms appear to be favoring a ramp up in USD-JPY too back above 120.00, which seems to be dovetailing with some risk-on momentum ahead of the wholesale trade report, though not known as a market mover. NASDAQ is setting the pace with a 0.25% gain, trailed by the blue chips.
09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 47.9
09:40 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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09:39 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open after jobless claims report
Stock futures drifted throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively quiet open for the broader market. Initial claims, reported earlier, were 281K, versus the expected 283K, while continuing claims were 2.3M, versus the expected 2.35M. Next, investors will be watching the wholesale inventory report and the EIA natural gas inventory reports, due later this morning. In early trading, the Dow is up 37 points, the Nasdaq is up 16 points and the S&P is up 5 points.
09:15 EDTBig Question is how to raise rates for the Fed
Big Question is how to raise rates for the Fed according to the latest Grand Central blog update from WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, who sifted through yesterday's FOMC minutes. The upshot is that the Fed is still struggling with the technicalities of hiking rates with an overhang of $2.7 tln in reserves in circulation and may be considering their wind down sooner rather than well after the policy cycle has turned as planned. With a self-imposed $300 B cap on their main tool, overnight reverse repos, they might need to ignore that as well. "The minutes show that even now the mechanics of how they'll do this are very much a work in progress, and a possible source of market uncertainty as the fed looks toward rate increases later this year," said Hilsenrath.
08:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $51.84 highs
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08:50 EDTThe 14k U.S. initial claims bounce
The 14k U.S. initial claims bounce to a still-lean 281k reversed the 21k plunge to 267k (was 268k) in the final week of March that marked the same cycle-low as seen in the January MLK week, thanks to the downward revision. Recent big gyrations likely reflect the difficulties of seasonal adjustment around the "moving" Easter holiday, though analysts have more generally seen a resumed tightening path for claims since the weather-led claims pop through late-February. Claims are entering April below the tight 285k March average, as well as prior averages of 306k in February and 290k in January. Analysts saw a 293k March BLS survey week reading, after similar prior BLS survey week figures of 285k in February and 301k in January. Analysts expect a 220k April nonfarm payroll gain that beats the lean 129k March increase and the 197k average rise in Q1. Payrolls face downside risk from weakness in producer sentiment since November and a lean ADP trajectory. Payrolls faces upside risk from the tightening in claims and the spike in consumer confidence through January, though the confidence pop has since given back ground.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities limped into the red
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher
FX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher after the in-line claims outcome, taking EUR-USD down a few points into 1.0760, and USD-JPY to 120.05 from just under the figure. Equity futures indicate a slightly higher Wall Street open, while yields are little changed.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yield steadied above lows
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08:39 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:27 EDTJPMorgan homebuilding analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:22 EDTAtlantic Council of the U.S. to host a discussion
International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Christine Lagarde discusses the state of the global economy and policy actions needed to ensure sustained economic recovery and growth in Washington, D.C. on April 9 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims for the week of April 4th should show a 12k headline rebound to 280k (median 280k) following a big dip to 268k from 288k. It's likely that the claims report last week was impacted by seasonal volatility surrounding the moving Easter Holiday, therefore some unwind from that dip is likely. Claims should average 286k in April from 285k in March and a higher 306k in February.
08:05 EDTJefferies U.S. Industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mixed in overnight trade, posting modest gains versus the euro, and ultimately easing against the yen. USD-CAD moved lower as oil prices recovered some, as cable recovered from the 1.47 handle following the no-change BoE announcement. Weekly jobless claims are on deck at 8:30 EDT, followed by February wholesale data at 10:00 EDT.
07:55 EDTBill Gross of Janus is beating his peers
Bill Gross of Janus is beating his peers and benchmarks with a long Treasuries - short volatility trade according to a Bloomberg report. He's reportedly up 2.4% for the year by shorting the dollar as well as part of this counter-trend trade, which he expects to prevail for the year. As part of the trade, he is selling CDS of export countries like Mexico and China, as well as bolting on a long-Treasuries position relative to German Bunds (aimed at Bund/T-note spread narrowing). He's also short volatility against U.S., U.K. and German debt. Rivals call this a dangerous "steamroller" strategy that uses derivatives for small gains at high risk.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:47 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a luncheon meeting
Discussion on chief causes of behavioral fallibilities and illustrates strategic opportunities using behavioral finance with CEO Wood of Martingdale in a Luncheon Meeting being held in Boston on April 9 at 12:15 pm.
07:37 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:32 EDTThe SEC Investor Advisory Committee to hold quarterly meeting
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07:27 EDTFutures quiet ahead of claims data
Stock futures are mixed but not far from fair value this morning, suggesting a quiet open for the broader market. Investors will be watching the weekly jobless claims data, wholesale inventories report, and the weekly natural gas inventory report for clues about the economy. Initial claims are expected to be 283K, while continuing claims are expected to be 2.35M. The data is due out at 8:30 am EDT.
07:26 EDTFDA Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:22 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
MedTech Boot Camp is being held in New York on April 9.
07:22 EDTCowen to hold a conference
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07:19 EDTBernstein to hold a conference
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07:02 EDTBank of England maintains bank rate, size of asset purchase program
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at GBP 375B.
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 9
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.75%, DAX up 0.40%. WTI Crude oil is recently at 51.44, natural gas up 0.73%, gold at $1196 an ounce, copper up 0.35%.
02:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY breached yesterday's high
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02:25 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is heavy once again
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April 8, 2015
17:06 EDTWeek of 4/17 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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16:10 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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15:17 EDTPowerShares Commodity Index volatility elevated as index near record low
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury yields backed up into supply and the FOMC minutes, propped up by modest gains in stocks as well after a mega-merger in the oil sector. Though both Fed's Dudley and Powell mulled a rate hike as early as June, neither was really in a rush. But, like a bad drinking game, every time the Fed said "June" whether in commentary or the minutes, the result was a predictable uptick in rates, especially at the short-end. The 10-year reopening met decent demand, particularly from foreign accounts.
14:55 EDTCanada Starts, Permits and New Home Price Preview
Canada Starts, Permits and New Home Price Preview: Housing starts are expected to improve to a 170.0k unit rate in March (median 175.0k) from the lean 156.3k clip in February. Permits are seen rising 3.0% m/m in January after the 12.9% drop in December. The new home price index is projected to fall 0.1% m/m in January after the 0.1% drop in December. and permits preview for more on Thursday's releases.
14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed moderately
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields oscillated below highs
Treasury Action: yields oscillated below highs after the Fed minutes mulled both a hike in June and delay, as expected. Those who wanted delay, however, were concerned about the deflationary impact of the firm dollar and weak oil. Gradual hikes when they come are also anticipated. The T-note yield again stalled under 1.925% - below Tuesday highs. Yet short yields snugged up with the 2-year yield up to 0.547% and this flattened the 2s-10s spread to +137 bp from the +140 bp area earlier.
14:15 EDTFOMC minutes showed a division on the timing of rate liftoff
FOMC minutes showed a division on the timing of rate liftoff, not surprisingly. The minutes to the March 17, 18 policy meeting showed several Committee members wanting a June hike, others later in the year, and a couple thought the economic outlook wouldn't call for a tightening until 2016. Nearly all, however, favored the removal of the word "patient" from the statement, which is what occurred. Several members expected a rather gradual pace of normalization. Almost all policymakers were concerned about risks from overseas, with several noting a drag from the stronger dollar. China and Greece were also cited as risks. The minutes don't add much to the body of knowledge, and especially after some weaker than expected economic data have clouded the outlook.
14:04 EDT'Several' Fed members see June as likely for rate hike
Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting read, "Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting. However, others anticipated that the effects of energy price declines and the dollar’s appreciation would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions likely would not be appropriate to begin raising rates until later in the year, and a couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook likely would not call for liftoff until 2016."
13:35 EDTU.S. equities are holding on to gains
U.S. equities are holding on to gains heading toward the FOMC minutes, with low expectations of any major revelations, though still some caution in advance. The major U.S. indices are 0.25-0.60% higher led by NASDAQ even after Europe rolled 0.69% lower into the close on the Euro Stoxx 50. Biggest gainers in the Dow are Visa +1.3%, NIKE +1.0% and Disney +1.0%, while on the downside Exxon -1.5% and Chevron -1.3% have been paced lower by the surplus of crude inventories on the verge of spilling over at Cushing, which has sent WTI knocking on the door of $50 bbl again after a 5.6% drop.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $21 B 10-year reopening was well received
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over from highs
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13:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has continued to slide
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
Treasury 10-year auction preview: the auction should see good demand from indirect bidders, but dealer interest may be light. The wi trades at 1.93%, having cheapened over 3 bps on the morning, but it may not be suffienent to bring in heavy demand since it would still be the richest award rate going back nearly 2 years. Additionally, the note is relatively rich on the curve at 139 bps versus the 2-year. There are some brewing inflation expectations too, with the FOMC still expected to start bumping up rates later this year. On the other hand, the note is on special in the repo market at -1.80%. There should be a solid indirect bid given wide spreads to foreign sovereigns (the Bund hit 0.15% this morning). Some real money demand was reported from Asia overnight, as investors are back in the market after fiscal year end on March 31. Indeed, indirect bidding has topped 50% in the last 4 auctions. The March note stopped at 2.139% and garnered a 58.6% indirect (48.4% average), and a 2.65 cover (2.69 average).
12:30 EDTFOMC minutes preview: the minutes lost some of their importance
FOMC minutes preview: the minutes lost some of their importance after the jobs data suggested a rather different economic environment than what existed at the March 17, 18 meeting. While the minutes will be seen as old news, it will be instructive nevertheless to read the thinking at the time. Remember the FOMC dropped "patient," while outlining a more tepid view on the economy in the policy statement as well as via the growth and inflation forecasts, and the new dot-plot. It's likely too that there will be more of a presence of the hawkish point of view that wasn't so visible in the Fed's releases, or Yellen's press conference. But, that stance should be taken with a grain of salt with the doves in clear control of the Committee, and as the two most ardent hawks, Plosser and Fisher, have retired.
12:28 EDTWeek of 4/17 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2548
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2548, up better than 100 points from opening levels. The greenback's general resurgence allowed the pairing to rise, while the sell-off in oil prices supported as well. WTI crude slid over 4% on the session, touching $51.36 lows after the large EIA reported crude inventory build. USD-CAD touched six-week lows of 1.2388 overnight, before this morning's rally, levels that have provided solid support since the beginning of February.
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: position liquidation
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10:55 EDTPiper Jaffray medtech analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
MedTech Research Team, along with Senior Strategist/Technical Analyst Craig Johnson, focuses on the firm's MedTech covered universe ahead of 1Q15 earnings results on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 10 at 11 am.
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $52.26
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10:40 EDTMore from Dudley: Fed will adjust policy tightening
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 3
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10:20 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley said March jobs report
NY Fed dove Dudley said March jobs report did not provide a huge signal for the Fed as "weather" likely played a role in the weak report and data has surprised to the downside. The perma-voter said that the oil price drop was a negative for U.S. gas and oil investment, while consumption seems a little weak given the economic cycle. It is apparent that he still sees the glass as half empty and will likely lean toward caution, though he says that a hike in June is still in play depending upon inflation and labor market data. Dudley said the Fed could still hike if the economy and jobs improve, but there are strong arguments for being "a bit on the late side." This is consistent with his more dovish remarks earlier in the week.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar is steady
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10:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar continues to build
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar continues to build. Turkey headlines today, having just launched a $1.5 B 11-year bond at +250 bps. Societe Generale is selling benchmark sized 10s too. IADB is selling benchmark 7-year notes. Ned Waterschapsbank is also selling 7-year notes. Shinhan Bank has a benchmark 5-year deal in the offing. Yesterday's issuance totaled $7.25 B, and brought the month up to $11.25 B. Spreads are a little tighter today with the Standard and Poor's global fixed income IG index at 175 bps, versus 176 bps yesterday, but the tightest was seen on March 6, and 9 at 170 bps. Supply, including the Treasury's 10-year sale, could keep Treasury yields slightly elevated.
09:55 EDTTreasury 10-year auction outlook:
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09:41 EDTMarket opens slightly higher after energy megadeal
Stock futures drifted higher throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a slightly higher open for the broader market. The market is looking to log it second consecutive higher weekly close, which is something it has not done in a couple of months. There economic calendar is light again, but investors will be watching the weekly Department of Energy inventory levels, especially in light of Shell's (RDS.A) $70B deal to buy rival BG Group (BRGYY). The big economic event of the day will come this afternoon, with the release of the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. In early trading, the Dow is up 66 points, the Nasdaq is up 23 points and the S&P is up 6 points.
09:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish demand
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09:10 EDTFormer Fed Chief Bernanke has a book title now
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09:06 EDTBarclays to hold a symposium
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09:05 EDTMore from Fed's Powell: significant slack remains
More from Fed's Powell: significant slack remains in the labor market with NAIRU estimated at 5%, while analysts're nearing the point that ZIRP is no longer appropriate. High levels of part time workers and low participation rate are factors. Again, he says the Fed doesn't need to rush to the starting line on rate hikes and will closely watch data between now and June. He believes that continued jobs growth could improve confidence that inflation will move higher over the medium term, and he would be willing to hike at even the current inflation rate if confident of eventual price gains. Powell said the Fed can't wait until the goal posts are in view. He also sees ECB policy as supportive of demand in Europe and helpful overall to the U.S. He's not worried about gaps between market and Fed expectations and doesn't foresee an asset bubble, though liquidity in some fixed income markets raises concern.
08:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude eased back
Energy Action: NYMEX crude eased back from its two-month peak of $54.09 posted on Tuesday, currently trading at $52.80, after touching a session low of $52.55. Prices pulled back after Saudi Arabia reported record production in March, while the API reported a weekly U.S. stock build of 12.2 M bbls, much higher than the 4.0 M bbl estimate. EIA inventory data is due at 10:30 EDT. RBOB gasoline prices pulled back to $1,81/gallon from Tuesday highs of $1.86, leaving U.S. average retail gasoline at $2.39/gallon, from $2.40 a week ago, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are range bound, trading currently at $2.63/M BTU.
08:54 EDTCowen metals/steel analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTCowen transportation analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:25 EDTMore Fedspeak from NY Fed dove Dudley
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08:24 EDTBofA/Merrill MENA economist holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:20 EDTFed Governor Powell expects rate hikes later this year
Fed Governor Powell expects rate hikes later this year and warns that they will need to be initiated well before the Fed hits its inflation and employment goals given lags in monetary policy. He believes that the U.S. economy is nearing full employment, but the effects of the crisis make it difficult to judge just how much slack remains. In that regard, the Fed should seek a little more proof that labor and other markets have tightened. Powell believes that low inflation will be a temporary result of shocks such as low oil prices and the dollar rise. He's not so much concerned with the timing of rate lift-off than the likely gradual pace. On balance he sounds a tad dovish, though on board with policy tightening.
08:14 EDTArgus consumer analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:05 EDTU.S. equities were propped up
U.S. equities were propped up by gains in Asia after expectations that steady policy from the BoJ was only a deferral of more stimulus after recent declines in inflation. The Japan Nikkei rose 0.76% and the Shanghai Comp gained 0.84%. In Europe, a rally stalled after news of a $70 B mega merger between Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group, though the UK FTSE remained 0.5% higher thanks to the energy sector and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.3% lower. Curiously, oil prices sank after record Saudi output was confirmed along with a whopping API build, keeping negative price trends in the sector intact. The Dow is 18-points higher, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 5-points higher, led by gains in U.S. energy stocks, while Alcoa is up ahead of earnings after the close. The FOMC minutes and EIA energy stats are on tap later.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:46 EDTCouncil on Foreign Relations to hold a discussion on monetary policy
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.4%
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07:31 EDTFOMC to publish minutes of meeting
FOMC releases minutes of the March Policy Meeting on April 8 at 2 pm.
07:30 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:29 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:28 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:27 EDTFitch Ratings to hold a teleconference
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07:24 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTScotiabank to hold a symposium
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07:19 EDTFutures quiet as earnings season looms
Stock futures are trading near fair value as investors look forward to the kickoff of earnings season. Alcoa, (AA) will be reporting its results after the close today, and investors remain concerned about the recent string of poor economic data and its effect on corporate earnings. Investors will also be examining the minutes from the Fed's last FOMC meeting, due to be released this afternoon, for clues about upcoming monetary policy decisions.
06:30 EDTEnergy Action:
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 8
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05:52 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
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02:15 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD's correction came to pause
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01:50 EDTBoJ left policy unchanged as was widely expected
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April 7, 2015
17:12 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
15:10 EDTU.S. consumer credit climbed $15.5 B in February
U.S. consumer credit climbed $15.5 B in February after a revised $10.8 B increase in January (was $11.6 B) and a $18.5 B December surge (revised from $17.9 B). Strength remained in the non-revolving credit component, which rose $19.2 B after January's $11.8 B increase (revised from $12.7 B). Revolving credit dropped $3.7 B after falling $1.0 B previously (revised from -$1.2 B).
15:03 EDTConsumer Credit data reported
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14:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Credit Preview
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14:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude showed little initial reaction
Energy Action: NYMEX crude showed little initial reaction to the Al-Naimi story (see 14:09 ET alert below), though has since rallied to session highs, touching $53.96, levels last seen on February 17. The $54.21 mark will be key, representing 2015 highs.
14:34 EDTMarket holds onto gains in afternoon trading
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14:32 EDTGermany calls Greek reparations claim 'dumb,' AFP reports
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13:55 EDTWeek of 4/18 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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13:37 EDTBofA/Merrill REITs analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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13:36 EDTDA Davidson real estate analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Real Estate Analyst Oxford provides an industry update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 13 at 11 am.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $24 B 3-year sale was a little weaker than expected
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields remained calm
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12:45 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview:
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12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are trading lower
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction results were solid
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11:43 EDT4-Week Bill Auction Total Amount data reported
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to grind higher
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to edge higher
Treasury Action: yields continue to edge higher with the grain of supply, starting with the 3-year auction today, which is keeping a prop under shorter dated yields and stalling out yesterday's decisive curve steepener on dovish Dudley. The 2-year yield extended its rise over 0.52% after settling just under 0.50% Monday, while the 10-year yield has nosed over 1.92% compared to the 1.90% area yesterday. That has capped the 2s-10s spread near +140 bp for now. Bonds have stalled under 2.574% yield highs from Monday and the 5s-30s spread has dug in near +122 bp. Stocks and USD-JPY meanwhile are conspiring to the upside.
10:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the market is springing back to life
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10:30 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook:
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10:20 EDTStill more from Fed's Kocherlakota:
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10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 168k to 5,133k in February
U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 168k to 5,133k in February after a 88k gain in January (revised down from 212k), and the rate edged up to 3.5% from 3.4%. Hirings declined another 78k to 4,916k after dropping 245k previously (revised from -243k). The hire rate was unchanged at 3.5%, but has declined from a 3.7% clip in December and October. There was a 92k decline in quitters to 2,687k, after January's 64k increase (revised from 84k). The rate slipped to 1.9% versus 2.0% in January, as it remains below the pre-recession cycle high of 2.3% from 2006. The quit rate is one of Yellen's favorites, and the slowdown will add to her caution over rate liftoff, after the weakness in the March jobs report.
09:50 EDTMore from Kocherlakota: there's no need for a small balance sheet
More from Kocherlakota: there's no need for a small balance sheet for the Fed to be able to raise rates and as fear and uncertainty ebbs from the consumer and firms' psyches, the Fed will be able to raise rates. More dovishness from the Fed arch-dove who prefers delay over expediency.
09:42 EDTMarket extends advance with gains in early trading
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was late to catch up
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09:12 EDTJPMorgan life sciences analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTFed arch-dove Kocherlakota said "extraordinary patience"
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09:06 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 4/4 Redbook Store Sales up 3.4% for the year
09:01 EDTBofA/Merrill small-cap strategists hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:00 EDTEl-Erian: a September Fed hike
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08:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude stayed over the $51 level
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08:33 EDTGallup US ECI level data reported
March Gallup US ECI level at -2
08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Minneapolis dove Kocherlakota
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08:15 EDTU.S. equities have sustained their gains
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up overnight, as London traders returning from holiday took advantage of better levels to buy into. EUR-USD traded into 1.0835, after touching 1.1035 in N.Y. on Monday, as USD-JPY rallied over 120.00. Cable touched 1.4830 lows, after running into resistance ahead of 1.5000 yesterday, while the dollar bloc held its own. USD-CAD stayed under 1.2500 on firmed oil prices, as AUD-USD rallied following the RBA meeting, where no rate hike was forthcoming. The U.S. calendar is light, with the February Jolts report due at 10:00 EDT.
08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales increased 1.1% in the week ended April 4
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries edged slightly lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries edged slightly lower with the 10-year yield hitting 1.90%, from 1.88% in Asia. European markets are playing catch-up after being closed since Thursday. The German Bund has pared earlier gains and trades at 0.19% from a near record low of 0.17%. Global equities are higher, in large part on expectations of central bank stimulus. The RBA maintained a steady policy stance, however, as did the RBI, despite some risk for further easing. Overnight data were mixed with the EMU services PMI revised slightly lower to 54.2, while the U.K. services PMI was stronger than expected. The U.S. calendar is thin. Treasury's $24 B 3-year note auction kicks off the $58 B in coupon sales. There is more Fedspeak today from the dovish Kocherlakota. Data includes just February JOLTS, consumer credit, and weekly chain store sales.
07:19 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President speaks at breakfast meeting
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota speaks before the Bismarck-Mandan Chamber of Commerce at a breakfast meeting being held in Bismarck, North Dakota on April 7 at 8:15 am.
07:16 EDTQuiet futures action may signal quiet trading session
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07:14 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:13 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:12 EDTMedAssets to hold a summit
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07:11 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
2015 Electronic Payments Summit is being held in New York on April 7.
07:00 EDTFX Update:
FX Update: EUR-USD led a broader dollar rebound as European markets re-joined the fray after the prolonger Easter break. This helped USD-JPY briefly pierce above 120.00, while euro underperformance saw EUR-JPY and other euro crosses trade lower. Elsewhere, the AUD outperformed after the RBA refrained from cutting interest rates after its policy review today.
06:55 EDTFX Update:
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05:53 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 7
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.25%, DAX up 1.03%. WTI Crude oil is recently at 51.41, natural gas up 1.61%, gold at $1209 an ounce, copper up 0.96%.
05:50 EDTApril front month equity options last day to trade is April 17, 2015
02:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled back below 1.1000
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