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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 9, 2015
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 3
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields held fast near highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales fell 0.2% in February with inventories up 0.3%
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09:55 EDTU.S. equities have snapped back into the green
U.S. equities have snapped back into the green after the shaky open following the uptick in claims. Algorithms appear to be favoring a ramp up in USD-JPY too back above 120.00, which seems to be dovetailing with some risk-on momentum ahead of the wholesale trade report, though not known as a market mover. NASDAQ is setting the pace with a 0.25% gain, trailed by the blue chips.
09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 47.9
09:40 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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09:39 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open after jobless claims report
Stock futures drifted throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively quiet open for the broader market. Initial claims, reported earlier, were 281K, versus the expected 283K, while continuing claims were 2.3M, versus the expected 2.35M. Next, investors will be watching the wholesale inventory report and the EIA natural gas inventory reports, due later this morning. In early trading, the Dow is up 37 points, the Nasdaq is up 16 points and the S&P is up 5 points.
09:15 EDTBig Question is how to raise rates for the Fed
Big Question is how to raise rates for the Fed according to the latest Grand Central blog update from WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, who sifted through yesterday's FOMC minutes. The upshot is that the Fed is still struggling with the technicalities of hiking rates with an overhang of $2.7 tln in reserves in circulation and may be considering their wind down sooner rather than well after the policy cycle has turned as planned. With a self-imposed $300 B cap on their main tool, overnight reverse repos, they might need to ignore that as well. "The minutes show that even now the mechanics of how they'll do this are very much a work in progress, and a possible source of market uncertainty as the fed looks toward rate increases later this year," said Hilsenrath.
08:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $51.84 highs
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08:50 EDTThe 14k U.S. initial claims bounce
The 14k U.S. initial claims bounce to a still-lean 281k reversed the 21k plunge to 267k (was 268k) in the final week of March that marked the same cycle-low as seen in the January MLK week, thanks to the downward revision. Recent big gyrations likely reflect the difficulties of seasonal adjustment around the "moving" Easter holiday, though analysts have more generally seen a resumed tightening path for claims since the weather-led claims pop through late-February. Claims are entering April below the tight 285k March average, as well as prior averages of 306k in February and 290k in January. Analysts saw a 293k March BLS survey week reading, after similar prior BLS survey week figures of 285k in February and 301k in January. Analysts expect a 220k April nonfarm payroll gain that beats the lean 129k March increase and the 197k average rise in Q1. Payrolls face downside risk from weakness in producer sentiment since November and a lean ADP trajectory. Payrolls faces upside risk from the tightening in claims and the spike in consumer confidence through January, though the confidence pop has since given back ground.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities limped into the red
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher
FX Action: The dollar edged slightly higher after the in-line claims outcome, taking EUR-USD down a few points into 1.0760, and USD-JPY to 120.05 from just under the figure. Equity futures indicate a slightly higher Wall Street open, while yields are little changed.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yield steadied above lows
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08:39 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:27 EDTJPMorgan homebuilding analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:22 EDTAtlantic Council of the U.S. to host a discussion
International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Christine Lagarde discusses the state of the global economy and policy actions needed to ensure sustained economic recovery and growth in Washington, D.C. on April 9 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims for the week of April 4th should show a 12k headline rebound to 280k (median 280k) following a big dip to 268k from 288k. It's likely that the claims report last week was impacted by seasonal volatility surrounding the moving Easter Holiday, therefore some unwind from that dip is likely. Claims should average 286k in April from 285k in March and a higher 306k in February.
08:05 EDTJefferies U.S. Industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mixed in overnight trade, posting modest gains versus the euro, and ultimately easing against the yen. USD-CAD moved lower as oil prices recovered some, as cable recovered from the 1.47 handle following the no-change BoE announcement. Weekly jobless claims are on deck at 8:30 EDT, followed by February wholesale data at 10:00 EDT.
07:55 EDTBill Gross of Janus is beating his peers
Bill Gross of Janus is beating his peers and benchmarks with a long Treasuries - short volatility trade according to a Bloomberg report. He's reportedly up 2.4% for the year by shorting the dollar as well as part of this counter-trend trade, which he expects to prevail for the year. As part of the trade, he is selling CDS of export countries like Mexico and China, as well as bolting on a long-Treasuries position relative to German Bunds (aimed at Bund/T-note spread narrowing). He's also short volatility against U.S., U.K. and German debt. Rivals call this a dangerous "steamroller" strategy that uses derivatives for small gains at high risk.
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