New User:

-or-
Username:
Password:
Forgot your password?

Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing.
<< 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >>
March 6, 2015
07:23 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs report
Subscribe for More Information
06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD dove further into 11-year-plus low territory
FX Update: EUR-USD dove further into 11-year-plus low territory, making a low-so-far of 1.0962 with the market deciding it didn't need to see the U.S. payrolls outcome to be euro bearish. The move reflected a broader drop in the European majors, with Cable also down quite sharply and USD-CHF flipping to new trend highs. The European majors also fell against the yen, Aussie and other currencies. USD-JPY corrected to the 120.00 area after making a three-week high of 120.42 yesterday. Five-week lows in EUR-JPY under 132.00 was an offsetting driver, as have been Japanese exporter offers. EUR-GBP logged a fresh seven-year at 0.7212, though Cable dove over half a big figure to a five-week low at 1.5163.
05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 6
Subscribe for More Information
03:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is trading slightly firmer
Subscribe for More Information
02:20 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended to a new 11-year-plus low
FX Update: EUR-USD extended to a new 11-year-plus low at 1.0987 just after the London close on Thursday. The 1.10 handle was since recovered but rebounds have remained muted affairs. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro pushed to new cycle highs above 177 bp in the 10-year T-note over Bund differential. USD-JPY corrected to the 120.00 area after making a three-week high of 120.42 yesterday. Five-week lows in EUR-JPY near 132.00 was an offsetting driver, as have been Japanese exporter offers. EUR-GBP logged a fresh seven-year low on Thursday amid fresh euro underperformance, while the pound traded lower against both the dollar and yen. EUR-CHF managed to recover above the 1.07 level, which has developed into an anchor point for the cross over the last couple of weeks, despite fresh euro underperformance. AUD-USD continued to oscillate around 0.7800, which has been the case since early February.
02:04 EDTWeek of 3/18 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
02:04 EDTWeek of 3/9 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
March 5, 2015
23:55 EDTSF Fed dove Williams sounded a bit hawkish from Honolulu
SF Fed dove Williams sounded a bit hawkish from Honolulu warning that it's better that the Fed should "seriously" discuss raising rates early and gradually, rather than wait too long and have to hike sharply. Waiting too long also runs the risk of overshooting on inflation and forcing sharp rate hikes, which could destabilize markets and damage the recovery. Voter Williams sees maximum employment by year end, if not sooner and expects inflation to return to normal over the next two years. He has been steadily leaning more towards the hawkish camp recently and seems likely to be open to the option of a hike starting as early as June all else equal.
21:05 EDTCanada Building Permit Preview
Subscribe for More Information
21:05 EDTCanada Productivity Preview
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDTFed stress tests: all 31 banks passed
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDTU.S. Trade Deficit Preview
U.S. Trade Deficit Preview: January trade data is out on Friday and should reveal a -$40.0 B (median -42.0 B) deficit for the month on the heels of a -$46.6 B deficit in December. The recent collapse in oil prices has been supportive of trade balances since the declines began.
16:35 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
Subscribe for More Information
16:32 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
Subscribe for More Information
16:32 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:32 EDTWeek of 3/13 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
Subscribe for More Information
16:32 EDTWeek of 3/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasuries were led through the nose by Bunds on Thursday as ECB's Draghi outlined his plans for QE and what not to QE. Greek and Cypress waivers were not reinstated while negotiations continued on their reform compliance. Along with bullish medium-term growth and inflation forecasts (thanks to QE) and a lower bound of -0.2% on debt purchases with negative yields, that stirred the pot - first against Bunds, then in favor. Likewise, Treasuries slumped and then snapped higher, largedly shrugging off updates on jobless claims and productivity. That said, short-dated rate flows were very active following the ECB presser and ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report.
14:37 EDTStocks drift in positive ground in afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
14:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate option update: even more action in block trade
Subscribe for More Information
13:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: pre-payrolls positioning?
Subscribe for More Information
12:59 EDTWeek of 3/14 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
12:50 EDTTreasury Action: the bond market hasn't gotten much traction
Subscribe for More Information
12:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: a 10-year call diagonal
Subscribe for More Information
11:45 EDTSF Fed dove Williams will be speaking from Honolulu
Subscribe for More Information
11:15 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with representatives from the crop seed distribution industry, provide insight on crop input demand trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on March 13 at 1 pm.
11:11 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $58 B package of coupon auctios for next week
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT10-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT10-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT3-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
3-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:08 EDT3-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT30-Yr Bond Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT30-Yr Bond Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
30-Yr Bond Announcement CUSIP Number at 912810RK6
11:08 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:49 EDTCitigroup healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTThe U.S. factory goods data revealed huge but expected oil-led declines
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a new bullish position
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: there's no let up in issuance today
U.S. corporate bond update: there's no let up in issuance today and this week's calendar will be the highest for the year to date. Volume currently totals $53 B and could hit $60 B when the day is done. Supply is helping put a floor under Treasury yields. Quest Diagnostics is auctioning $1.2 B in 5-, 10-, and 30-year maturities. Lam Research is selling $750 M in 5- and 10-year notes. Abbott Labs has a 3-part offering including 5-, 7-, and 10-year notes (benchmark size). Energy Transfer Systems is selling 10-, 20-, and 30-year paper (benchmark size). John Deere has a benchmark 2-year FRN and a 5-year note on tap. Costa Rica has a $500 M 30-year.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending February 27
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields have settled lower
Treasury Action: yields have settled lower with those of Bunds after the ECB presser whipsawed the bond markets. News that factory orders fell 0.2%, above the weak median forecast, didn't have much lasting effect. After an over 10 basis point swing from top to bottom on the Bund yield (0.429-0.322%), both Bund and T-note yields have based and rebounded slightly (T-note chopped from 2.147-2.096%). Stocks opened higher and this has settled things down on the fixed income side as well, while the dollar has cooled its jets.
10:15 EDTU.S. factory orders dipped 0.2% in January, while shipments fell 2.0%
Subscribe for More Information
10:11 EDTBofA/Merrill healthcare policy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTMarket has quiet open as jobs data looms
Subscribe for More Information
09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTU.S. factory orders preview:
U.S. factory orders preview: January factory orders are expected to remain unchanged (median -0.3%) after falling 3.4% in Decembe, with inventories down -0.2%. Forecast risk is downward, however, given the soft durable goods numbers. preview.
09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been pressured lower
Subscribe for More Information
09:16 EDTJPMorgan consumer analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTThe U.S. Q4 productivity report
Subscribe for More Information
09:05 EDTU.S. equities have turned higher
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTThe 7k climb in U.S. initial claims to 320k
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTTreasury Re-Action: scratch that, yields spiked higher
Treasury Re-Action: scratch that, yields spiked higher with those of Bunds, which briefly topped 0.42% from the 0.40% area on back of the ECB growth and inflation revisions higher, though of course these are based upon full implimentation of QE. The euro also briefly jumped to session highs of 1.1113 as well before caving again down to 1.1060. The T-note yield reversed from the 2.12% area struck after the pop in jobless claims to clear 2.145% to session highs before simmering down again. The cross-currents of data and Draghi-speak is keeping dealers on their toes this morning.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped back
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a dive from highs
Treasury Action: yields took a dive from highs after jobless claims surged just a day ahead of the February payrolls report, while productivity was revised lower as expected. At the same time the bond market is fielding statements from ECBs Draghi, who plans to continue QE until he sees the whites of inflation's eyes. The T-note yield had probed 2.14% before reversing back below 2.12%, while the 2s-10s spread has pulled back from wides near +148 bp to the +147 bp area.
08:45 EDTU.S. Q4 productivity was revised to -2.2% with unit labor costs at 4.1%
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 7k to 320k in the week ended February 28
Subscribe for More Information
08:35 EDTFutures remain above fair value following employment data
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTAction Alert: Washington is closed due to snow
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. Q4 productivity preview:
U.S. Q4 productivity preview: Q4 nonfarm productivity should be revised lower to -2.4% from -1.8% initially and from 3.7% in Q3. Analysts expect unit labor costs to be correspondingly be boosted to 3.3% from 2.7% initially and -2.3% in Q3. Beyond quarterly gyrations, analysts've seen a flattening in productivity growth over the past two years. preview for more detail.
08:11 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society discusses robotics indusry association (RIA)
Subscribe for More Information
08:09 EDTCBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index at 11-week low
Subscribe for More Information
08:01 EDTU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to hold a public roundtable
Public Roundtable to discuss issues related to recovery and orderly wind-down of Derivatives Clearing Organizations (DCOs) is being held in Washington, D.C. on March 5 at 9 am. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $51.80
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $51.80 into the N.Y. open, after ranging between $51.53 and $52.36 overnight. Higher than expected U.S. crude inventories resulted in a brief sell off under $50 on Wednesday, though funds were reportedly quick to pour money back into oil on the move. That, coupled with uncertainty over a nuclear agreement with Iran drove prices higher in afternoon trade. An Iranian official said yesterday that no deal had been reached with regards to the duration of the agreement. RBOB gasoline futures traded a narrow range centered on $1.92/gallon, keeping U.S. average retail prices at $2.45/gallon, according to AAA data. Natural gas prices rallied to highs of the week, topping at $2.8150/M BTU, and up from Wednesday's low of $2.641. Temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. are expected to remain cold through the weekend, upping heating demand.
08:00 EDTU.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs fell 2.5k in February to 50.6k
Subscribe for More Information
07:58 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi to hold a press conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
Subscribe for More Information
07:46 EDTECB leaves key interest rates unchanged
Subscribe for More Information
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD touched new 11-year lows in Asia, taking the pairing into 1.1025 in the lead up to this morning's ECB meeting. Euro selling has been a feature for most of the week, and while analysts look for losses to continue over the next few months, there is risk for a short covering backed rally during this morning's press conference. Elsewhere, USD-JPY has secured the 120 handle, but has been unable to run to high, reportedly as 120 option strikes expire this morning. The U.S. calendar reveals weekly jobless claims and revised Q4 productivity at 8:30 EST. January factory orders are due at 10:00 EST.
07:02 EDTBank of England maintains bank rate and size of asset purchase program
Subscribe for More Information
06:58 EDTFutures above fair value ahead of economic data
Subscribe for More Information
06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmly
Subscribe for More Information
06:29 EDTChina sets 2015 growth target of around 7%, Xinhua reports
China set an economic growth target of around 7% for 2015, according to Xinhua. China's economic growth averaged close to 10% between 1978 and 2013, before slowing to 7.7% in 2012 and 2013 and 7.4% last year, the news service noted. Reference Link
06:07 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 5
Globex S&P futures are recently up 1.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.26%, DAX up 0.34%. WTI Crude oil is recently at 52.20, natural gas up 0.18%, gold at $1198 an ounce, copper up 0.39%.
05:49 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
03:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended further into 11-year-plus low territory
Subscribe for More Information
March 4, 2015
19:33 EDT FOMC Forecasts to be released at 14:30
19:33 EDT Chair Press Conference to be released at 14:30
Subscribe for More Information
15:39 EDTWeek of 3/13 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:50 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:43 EDTFed Beige Book says economy continued to grow in most areas
Subscribe for More Information
14:40 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to near two-week highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to near two-week highs of $51.91, after finding a floor at $49.58 after the large EIA reported inventory build this morning. Sources noted fund buying under the $50 mark up to $50.50 after the data, which was enough to set a short covering wave into motion.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
Subscribe for More Information
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book reported economic activity continued to expand
Subscribe for More Information
14:02 EDTActivity continued to expand across most regions, Beige Book says
Subscribe for More Information
13:40 EDTFed's Beige Book preview:
Subscribe for More Information
13:40 EDTKC Fed hawk George supported raising rates sooner
KC Fed hawk George supported raising rates sooner towards the middle of this year in order to make subsequent hikes more gradual, in earlier remarks. She is not overly concerned about weak inflation, while rents, wages and other prices should increase despite the oil-related drag. George expects the labor market to be at normal levels by sometime this year. To wit: "Against the backdrop of the ongoing economic expansion, a strengthening labor market and low but firming inflation, it is reasonable to contemplate a shift in the stance of monetary policy. I continue to support lift-off towards the middle of the year." This is completely in line with the hawkish non-voter's predisposition.
12:30 EDTA preview of Fed transcripts due Thursday
Subscribe for More Information
12:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains firmer on the day
Subscribe for More Information
12:10 EDTWeek of 3/13 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
Subscribe for More Information
11:45 EDTNY Fed's Dudley speech on student loans
Subscribe for More Information
11:40 EDTTreasury Action: bond bulls are getting no satisfaction
Subscribe for More Information
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: a flurry of activity on bonds
Subscribe for More Information
11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large bearish position
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $49.81
Energy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $49.81 from $50.50 following the EIA inventory data which showed a huge 10.3 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 4.0 M bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 2.0 M bbls were flat, while distillate stocks were down 1.7 M bbls, versus expectations for a 2.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage fell to 86.6% from 87.4%. The report is bearish overall.
10:32 EDTUBS healthcare services analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of February 27
Crude oil inventories 10.3M build vs. consensus of 3.95M build. Gasoline inventories 46K build vs. consensus of 2.0M draw. Distillates 1.72M draw vs. consensus of 2.5M draw.
10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD slid to 1.2457
FX Action: USD-CAD slid to 1.2457 lows from 1.2535 following the BoC announcement, where rates were left steady at 0.75%, as was expected. The statement was fairly neutral overall, saying policy was appropriate at current levels. Tuesday's 1.2433 low will be the first support area.
10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM-NMI January uptick to 56.9
Subscribe for More Information
10:17 EDTMarket extends yesterday’s losses in early trading
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back from lows
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTU.S. ISM services index edged up 0.2 points to 56.9 in February
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
Subscribe for More Information
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI rose to 57.1 in the final February reading
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTU.S. ISM non-manufacturing preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:43 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTMore from dove Evans: low global inflation is not fully understood
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is considerably lighter today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is considerably lighter today after the near record sized $21 B Actavis offering priced yesterday, along with the huge $8 B Exxon deal. In fact, it was the second largest daily volume, totaling $33 B, bested only by September 11, 2013 which included the $49 B Verizon offering. Today's calendar includes a multi-tranche deal from CBA to include benchmark sized 3-year fixed/FRN and a 5-year maturity. There is a $500 M 7-year note from TD Ameritrade. Cades is pricing a benchmark 3-year note. AIA Group is selling benchmark 10-year notes. Republic Services has a $500 M 10-year. DTE Electric has a $350 M 30-year bond on tap. Corporate supply has been a major factor behind the updraft in Treasury yields, where the 10-year has risen 14 bps from last week.
09:10 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans repeated call for "patience"
Chicago Fed dove Evans repeated call for "patience" with no rate hikes until 2016, since he has "serious concerns about excessively low inflation." He forecasts inflation to remain below 2% until the end of 2018 and warns that the Fed should only raise rates when confident that inflation is heading higher, though he sees GDP growth of 3% the next couple of years. Though he expects to see full employment at 5%, this will include some labor market slack. Evans considers the costs of tightening too late as low, while raising rates too early could undermine the recovery. Overall, this is in character with his very dovish reputation, though perhaps more at the dovish end of the hawk-dove continuum at the Fed. Evans is a voter and yields are drifting lower again.
08:51 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York to hold a meeting on student loans
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, speaks at a meeting entitled, "Convening on Student Loan Data"" being held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on March 4 at 9 am.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are trading lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:46 EDTThe SEC's Advisory Committee on Small and Emerging Companies holds a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
08:35 EDTThe 212k ADP February rise undershot our 240k private payroll forecast
The 212k ADP February rise undershot our 240k private payroll forecast with a 250k total nonfarm payroll increase that is in line with the typical underperformance for the ADP figures, after a big boost in the lean January gain to 250k (was 213k) that narrowed the gap to the 267k private payroll rise in that month. The ADP rise included a big 31k increase for goods employment with the same rise for construction, though weather is a bigger factor for payrolls than ADP. The "as reported" ADP figures have run 41k/month weaker than private payrolls over the two years since the October 2012 methodology change by Moody's, with big recent undershoots of 54k in January, 79k in December, and a hefty 206k in November that were aggravated by the higher private payroll trajectory with last month's annual revisions. The ADP report included annual revisions that "back fitted" the data to the revised payroll figures, though analysts track "as reported" data. on the risks for Friday's U.S. jobs report.
08:33 EDTGallup U.S. Job Creation Index level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled lower
Treasury Action: yields rolled lower in the wake of the ADP report, which came in below expectations, but from sharp upwardly revised January levels. That should still keep focus on upside risks in Friday's payrolls report once past the crucible of tomorrow's ECB and BoE meetings. The T-note yield hit a high over 2.14% in Asia, only to sag below 2.11% in early NY trade before finding traction. ISM NMI, Beige Book and Fedspeak will provide the fodder for the rest of the session after recent heavy corporate supply dominated defensive price action.
08:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar ticked up a bit
Subscribe for More Information
08:26 EDTJobs data has little impact on market
Subscribe for More Information
08:25 EDTU.S. ADP reported private payrolls increased 212k in February
U.S. ADP reported private payrolls increased 212k in February , that's a little disappointing, though January's 213k was revised up to a 250k increase (benchmark revisions were included today). The services sector paced the gain, rising 181k, with the goods producers contributing 31k. Construction jobs increased 31k. Manufacturing rose 3k. Finance was up 20k. Trade, transportation, and utility jobs increased 31k.
08:20 EDTFedspeak is due from Chicago dove Evans
Subscribe for More Information
08:14 EDTDeutsche Bank biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading over $51/bbl
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTU.S. ADP employment survey preview:
U.S. ADP employment survey preview: the ADP private employment survey is forecast to increase 220k in February (median 220k) compared to 213k in January. For more detail, see the ADP website.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:41 EDTPresident of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City speaks on economy
Subscribe for More Information
07:39 EDTFutures suggest follow through from yesterday’s decline
Subscribe for More Information
07:38 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:35 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President to speak on the economy
Subscribe for More Information
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed after paring earlier losses. The 10-year note is fractionally cheaper at 2.12% in conjunction with modest losses in most sovereigns globally. Most equity markets are in the red as well as recent data suggest ongoing central bank accommodation will be coming to an end. Ironically, the RBI surprised with its second intermeeting rate cut in 2 months, trimming it key rate another 25 bps to 7.5%, and the PBoC also lowered rates further on some short term loans. Meanwhile, Eurozone and U.K. services PMIs unexpectedly dipped lower, though the numbers still point to solid expansion in the sector. The ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged tomorrow while announcing QE details. There could also be details on whether Greek bonds will be reinstated. Attention is shifting to the ADP private payroll report ahead of Friday's February employment release. Payrolls are forecast rising 220k after the disappointing 213k January gain. Also out today is the February ISM services index, expected to slip slightly to 56.5 from 56.7. The Fed's Beige Book is also on tap, but won't break any new ground. There is also Fedspeak from the dovish Evans, and the hawks George and Fisher.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.1%
Subscribe for More Information
07:33 EDTFDA to hold a meeting of the Science Board
The Science Board will be provided with a progress report or a final draft report from the Commissioner's Fellowship Program Evaluation Subcommittee and will hear a progress report from the Science Moving Forward Subcommittee in a meeting being held at the FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on March 4 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:31 EDTFDA Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee meets in open session to discuss and make recommendations on the selection of strains to be included in the influenza virus vaccines for the 2015-2016 influenza season being held in Silver Spring, Maryland on March 4 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:28 EDTEconomics Club of Washington, D.C. to hold a breakfast meeting
Michael Dell, founder of Dell, Inc., is the guest speaker at a breakfast meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on March 4 at 8 am.
07:25 EDTUBS to hold a forum
Subscribe for More Information
07:14 EDTStandard & Poor to hold a webinar
Subscribe for More Information
05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 4
Subscribe for More Information
05:49 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
02:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD traded moderately lower
Subscribe for More Information
March 3, 2015
22:30 EDTFed Chair Yellen spoke after the NY close
Subscribe for More Information
17:30 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:30 EDTWeek of 3/14 Redbook to be released at 08:55
Subscribe for More Information
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
15:00 EDTU.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Preview
U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Preview: The February ISM-NMI will be released Wednesday morning to close out the February producer sentiment releases. The headline should reveal a decline to 56.5 (median 56.5) from last month's 56.7. Producer sentiment has remained tight through February and looks poised to leave the ISM-adjusted average holding at 52 from January. There is some upside potential for the ISM-NMI, however, as it has likely escaped some of the hit the other reports took from falling oil prices.
14:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain higher in lackluster trading
Subscribe for More Information
13:56 EDTAverages drop from record levels in day of profit taking
Subscribe for More Information
13:28 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
13:27 EDTFederal Reserve Board Chair Yellen speaks on bank regulation
Subscribe for More Information
13:10 EDTU.S. corporate debt update: Exxon Mobil tightened guidance
U.S. corporate debt update: Exxon Mobil tightened guidance on its $7 B 8-trancher, which has reportedly built a book of $22 B in demand. On top of the $21 B 10-tranche Actavis deal that was launched earlier, this IG deal glut appears to be keeping a floor under Treasury yields despite the latest drop on Wall Street. The benchmark T-note yield is back over 2.10% compared to lows near 2.076% earlier.
12:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some earlier 5-year positioning
Treasury Option Action: some earlier 5-year positioning included a bearish purchase of 5.5k in April 119/118+ put spreads, along side a smaller bullish purchase of 2.5k in 119/120/121 call butterflies. Compared to 118-30 at the time of these trades, June 5s are 1.2-ticks lower near 118-28 presently.
12:15 EDTU.S. equities have resumed declines
U.S. equities have resumed declines in the wake of the Netanyahu speech asking for the U.S. to scupper the nuclear arms deal with Iran that has been already widening the bi-partisan rift. While complimentary of the Obama Administation support of Israel in his introduction, "Bibi" made a strident case for abandoning a deal that would in his words leave Iran weeks away from nuclear armament capability. NYMEX crude ticked back up over $50.50 bbl, while stocks were already under pressure into the speech, down from record highs on Monday. Risk proxy USD-JPY is consolidating above earlier lows of 119.37, while the T-note yield is near 2.08% vs 2.115% overnight highs. Gold at $1,204 is dead center of the $1,214.60-1,195.70 session range.
11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were well received
Treasury's bill auctions were well received. The $30 B 4-week auction was strong, though helped by the $10 B cut in size from recent auctions. The bill stopped at 0.005%, through the 0.015% at the bid deadline. There were $121.1 B in bids for a 4.05 cover, better than last week's 3.68 and the 3.71 average. Indirect bidders took 27.5% versus 35.2% previously and a 24.2% average. The $25 B 52-week bill stopped at 0.26%, also inside the 0.27% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled $97.6 B for a 3.91 cover, versus 3.81 in February and the best since September. But is is a little shy of the 4.09 average. Indirect bidders were awarded a hefty 48.9%, the highest since April, and versus last month's 39.2% and a 34.3% average.
11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: a more bullish slant
Subscribe for More Information
11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains near session lows
FX Action: USD-JPY remains near session lows, idling near 119.50, after basing at 119.40. Risk-off conditions have been the driver, though heavy selling over 120 from domestic accounts from Monday, prompted some speculative position paring. Technically, the 120.10-20 level has provided a solid resistance level, with support now into 119.10. Significant stops are reported under 119.00.
11:05 EDTFed Chief Yellen will be speaking after the close
Subscribe for More Information
10:50 EDTA Lean U.S. Tax Receipt Path Despite Weak Refunds:
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTU.S. Auto Sales
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTCommodity Action: Copper futures have retreated
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Options Action: light bearish positioning
Treasury Options Action: light bearish positioning has been a feature of early trade, though underlying futures have rebounded from lows. This has been mostly in the form of repeat sales of small lot April 128 calls on 10-year futures. June 10s are a tick higher near 127-05, compared to their 127-075 to 126-28 session range. Meanwhile, stocks are rolling over with USD-JPY to session lows, prompting one pundit to call for a system break on Wall Street to arrest the slide.
09:40 EDTReforming the Fed remains a popular pastime in DC
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance remains a focal point
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $50.05
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $50.05 early on the N.Y. session, after ranging between $50.59 and $49.69 overnight. Record inventory levels continue to frustrate oil bulls, as the market continues to sell into modest price gains. In new developments, Iran has reportedly rejected the U.S. nuclear proposal, which could provide some support to oil prices. No agreement, no relaxing of sanctions, no new oil supply from Iran. RBOB gasoline futures are up 2 cents/gallon at $1.9365, taking U.S. average retail prices up another 2 cents to $2.44/gallon. Natural gas futures remain heavy, now sitting at $2.68/M BTU, as U.S. temperatures moderate.
09:10 EDTU.S. vehicle sales preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTU.S. corporate debt: the Actavis mega-deal tightened dramatically
U.S. corporate debt: the Actavis mega-deal tightened dramatically as price guidance from the firm narrowed by 10-25 basis points along the spectrum of its maturity range from 18-months to 30-years, a roughly $22 B package expected to price today to help fund its $60 B purchase of Allergan. It also added a new 5-year floating rate note to the package, which was upsized to 10-tranches and has reportedly attracted some $90 B in orders. That is consistent with solid demand for the offering as investors reach for yield at a premium ranging from 90 bp over Libor to +215 bp over the cash bond. Treasuries may remain defensive while the private debt deal casts a shadow over the market and investors make room for the package, though all else equal upon pricing there could be some rate lock unwinding and relaxation once again after the T-note probed 2.11% 1-week highs.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.2440
FX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.2440 from just over 1.2500 following the better than expected Q4 Canadian GDP data. The pairing had been biding its time just over the figure through the overnight session, in anticipation of the data. Ahead of Wednesday's BoC policy meeting however, follow through may be limited. While the odds for another rate cut tomorrow have been diminished following Governor Poloz's comments last week, the market may want to keep some powder dry ahead of the meeting.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are on the defensive
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTU.S. chain store sales
U.S. chain store sales were unchanged in the week ended February 28, according to the Retail Economist data. Compared to last year sales slowed to a 1.8% y/y pace versus 2.1% y/y previously.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD managed fresh lows of 1.1155
Subscribe for More Information
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are lower around the world
Subscribe for More Information
07:42 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:34 EDTUBS to hold a conference
Russia Corporate Day is being held in New York on March 3-4.
07:24 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
U.S. Securitized Products Research Conference is being held in New York on March 3.
07:19 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:15 EDTFutures quiet with market near all-time highs
Stock futures are trading near fair value as the averages sit near all-time highs. The Nasdaq eclipsed the 5,000 level for the first time since 2000 and had its third highest close ever. No major catalyst is expected to emerge today, as little economic data is expected to be released. The only major economic data point expected to be unveiled today is the ISM report on the New York area, which is expected to be released after the market opens.
07:12 EDTCapRate Events to hold a summit
Subscribe for More Information
07:09 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
06:40 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD came under pressure
Subscribe for More Information
06:36 EDTGerman retail sales beat expectations, Reuters says
Subscribe for More Information
06:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD came under pressure
Subscribe for More Information
05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 3
Subscribe for More Information
05:47 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
02:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has continued to oscillate around 1.1200
Subscribe for More Information
March 2, 2015
18:30 EDTCanada GDP Preview
Subscribe for More Information
17:19 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:19 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:19 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasuries stumbled on the opening day of March trade Monday as NASDAQ reclaimed a 15-year high of 5k and a $22 B package of Actavis debt loomed over the fixed income market in absence of sovereign supply. With the Fed leaning toward a summer tightening launch and data mostly damp heading toward Friday's payrolls, traders were mainly sidelined and easily swayed by bearish hedging and flows. Even after another China rate cut overnight, the personal income report, ISM and construction spending all came in under median forecasts.
13:58 EDTAverages trading in narrow range in record territory
The major equity indexes remain in positive territory in afternoon trading, as they have been since the open. The Nasdaq was the early leader, as it eclipsed the 5,000 mark for the first time since 2000, but since it hit that round number milestone the Dow has strengthened and taken over as the leader in terms of percentage gains. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4 and crude oil prices recovered to rise over 1% after being down early in the session. In afternoon trading, the Dow is up 121 points, the Nasdaq is up 28 points and the S&P is up 8 points.
13:40 EDTFed's Beige Book preview:
Fed's Beige Book preview: the Beige Book (Wednesday) for the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting should continue to report an upside bias to growth. The Fed's summary is again likely to characterize the expansion as "modest" to "moderate" after most contacts around the 12 Districts expected to see faster growth in coming months. Consumption probably was decent, but with some pockets of weakness considering the drop in January spending reported today. Weather may have been stated as a limiting factor too. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing services should have expanded a bit. Look for some chatter on the negative impacts from the drop in oil prices and the port strike. The report can repeat that payrolls expanded moderately, while wage pressures remained mostly limited to workers with specialized technical skills. Some firms have also been reporting they were increasing starting pay or were moving above the minimum wage to help retain their workforce. Price pressures may have increased slightly as well.
13:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more bearish trade
Subscribe for More Information
12:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
12:12 EDTEuro zone prices drop less than expected, unemployment falls, Reuters says
Prices in the euro zone dropped 0.3% last month, versus the 0.4% decline expected by economists, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the bloc's unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January from 11.3% in December, the news service quoted the EU as saying. Reference Link
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is bumping into a daily chart trend line
FX Action: USD-JPY is bumping into a daily chart trend line, drawn through the December high of 121.85 and the February peak of 120.48. The line now crosses at right around 120.10, which was crossed earlier, though did not hold. A N.Y. close over 120.10 should see the February high targeted.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was well received
Subscribe for More Information
11:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude shot up to highs of $50.99
Energy Action: NYMEX crude shot up to highs of $50.99, after breaking Friday's $49.91 peak, and resistance at $50.00. Sources regarded the move as technical in nature, noting that Brent crude remains nearly 2% lower on the day, and earlier U.S. ISM data not indicative of ramping up of future demand. Sellers stepped on moves over $51 last week, and more of the same may be in the works now, with prices back into the $50.60 level.
11:25 EDTU.S. equities ramped higher
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury cut the size of the 4-week bill auction to $30 B for Tuesday
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:55 EDTThe 1.1% U.S. January construction spending drop
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bullish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTThe U.S. ISM February drop to a 52.9 one-year low
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY cracked the 120.00 level
Subscribe for More Information
10:26 EDTEarly move puts Nasdaq in rare territory
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTPhilly Fed announced Patrick Harker as its new president
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. manufacturing ISM dipped 0.6 points to 52.9 in February
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar ticked a bit higher
FX Action: The dollar ticked a bit higher, despite the miss in manufacturing PMI and construction spending data, resulting in USD-JPY moving to N.Y. session highs of 119.89, and EUR-USD easing a few points to N.Y. session lows of 1.1208. Wall Street has held its gains, while yields moved off their best levels.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to defy gravity
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. construction spending dropped 1.1% in January
Subscribe for More Information
10:00 EDTU.S. construction spending preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTWedbush healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit PMI rose to 55.1 in the final February print
Subscribe for More Information
09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning to start took the form of a 5k purchase of Front June 95/96 put 1x2s, in line with the mildly weaker tone on the underlying rate futures. The lead June 2015s are a half-tick higher near 99.63, while the deferreds are 0.5-1.0 ticks lower out the curve.
09:45 EDTU.S. ISM manufacturing index preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the new issue calendar is coming in like a lion
U.S. corporate bond update: the new issue calendar is coming in like a lion to start the month of March and that's weighing on nominal Treasuries. Topping the list is a mammoth 9-part offering from Actavis, reportedly for $22 B, to include 18-month FRN, 2-year, 3-year fixed and FRN, along with 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, and 30-yeaer maturities, as it looks to finance its $49 B purchase of Allergan. Meanwhile, on tap today is a $1 B 18-month issue from KfW. Council of Europe Development Bank has a $1 B 5-year. There is a 2-tranche deal (benchmark size) from MetLife. EIB is auctioning a benchmark 3-year global. Discover Financial plans a $500 M 10-year. Mitsubishi UFJ launched a $500 M 5-year note. Last month there were 86 issuers who priced $135 B in paper, versus $132 B in January, and $117.7 B in February 2014.
09:17 EDTJPMorgan Euro and U.S. pharma analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTU.S. equities are mixed to firmer
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTToday's U.S. income report undershot estimates
Subscribe for More Information
09:07 EDTJanney Capital retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
FX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher despite the softer income and consumption data, seeing EUR-USD tick down toward 1.1220 from 1.1230, and USD-JPY to 119.85 from 119.75. Equity futures indicate a slightly higher Wall Street open, while yields inched up a tad.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields migrated higher
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.3% in January while spending was dipped 0.2%
Subscribe for More Information
08:36 EDTGallup US Consumer Spending Measure level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:34 EDTInvestors show little reaction to early economic reports
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTU.S. personal income preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dipped to 1.2483
FX Action: USD-CAD dipped to 1.2483 into the North American open, before heading back up to 1.2507 highs. Canadian GDP data on Tuesday, along with the BoC meeting on Wednesday could keep trade range bound through the session today, as another BoC rate cut has largely been priced out. Oil prices will bear watching, however, with WTI crude is off its overnight highs, trading on the $48 handle. Further losses there are likely to support USD-CAD.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed, having pared overnight losses with the 10-year yield dropping back under 2.0%. Global sovereign yields are mostly lower, paced by Gilts which shrugged off firmer than expected manufacturing PMI and a variety of other reports on production and inflation. Eurozone spreads are narrower too as the markets await the start of the ECB's QE buying, reported to begin next week. China cut rates 25 bps, as largely expected, which gave Asian stocks a lift, though Eurozone bourses have lost their gains. There is a lot of U.S. data this week too, culminating with Friday's February nonfarm payroll release. As for today, there is data on January personal income and PCE, the February ISM manufacturing index, the February Markit PMI, and January construction spending. Treasury supply is light after the $90 B in coupon offerings last week. But a mammoth $22 B corporate multi-trancher could be in the works with Actavis reportedly prepping a $22 B bond sale.
07:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month WTI crude is trading at $48.80/bbl
Energy Action: Front month WTI crude is trading at $48.80/bbl, after ranging between $48.44 and $49.46 overnight. The next support level comes in at last Friday's low of $47.79, with resistance at $50.00. Sources say the blowout seen last week in spreads between the front (April) contract and the May contract portend further near term weakness, as it becomes more expensive to roll a position forward. May crude is now trading over $2.30/bbl higher than April crude. April Gasoline trades under $1.95/gallon, down from $1.9750 highs, staying firm, as labor actions, and unexpected refinery outages support. Average U.S. retail gasoline has shot up to nearly $2.43/gallon, up 13 cents over the past week, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are steady near the bottom of their two-week range, currently at $2.70/M BTU.
07:34 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:34 EDTHealthcare Education Associates to hold a summit
Subscribe for More Information
07:31 EDTCLSA to hold a tour
Asia Tech Tour travels throughout Korea, Taiwan and China on March 2-6.
07:30 EDTFutures quiet in early trading
Subscribe for More Information
07:29 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
06:36 EDTChina's central bank lowers interest rates, NY Times says
China's central bank on Saturday announced that it had lowered its one year bank lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%, according to The New York Times. The central bank also lowered its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the newspaper stated. Reference Link
06:33 EDTChina PMI reaches seven month high, Reuters reports
Subscribe for More Information
06:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for March 2
Subscribe for More Information
05:54 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY steady in European AM trade
FX Action: USD-JPY steady in European AM trade after breaking above recent highs at 119.79-84 in Tokyo on route to an 18-day peak at 119.95. Higher stock markets in Asia, boosted by the combo of China's rate cut and above-forecast PMI data out of China and Japan, aided the yen lower, which followed its usual inverse correlative with risk appetite. The bigger picture view shows that USD-JPY remains entrenched in a broadly, if somewhat choppy, sideways price action that's been persisting since the major-cycle peak was made at 121.85 on Dec-7. More of the same looks likely for now, though analysts remain bullish in the longer-term. Despite there being a muddy picture about whether the BoJ is or isn't headed for further easing measures later this year, the central bank is on a sufficiently contrasting paths that favour the dollar. Near-term resistance is pegged at 120.00 and 120.47-50 (which encompasses mid-February highs), and support at 119.60.
03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD declined below Friday's low
Subscribe for More Information
March 1, 2015
15:15 EDTChina lowers benchmark rates for second time in four months, WSJ says
Subscribe for More Information
February 27, 2015
20:13 EDTConsumer Credit to be reported at 15:00
January Consumer Credit will be reported at 15:00 . Current consensus is $15.0B for the month
20:13 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level to be reported at 08:30
January International Trade Balance Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is $[41.8]B
20:13 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTProductivity and Costs Unit labor costs to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTProductivity and Costs Nonfarm productivity to be reported at 08:30
Productivity and Costs Nonfarm productivity will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [2.3]% for the quarter
20:13 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
February ADP Employment Report employment will be reported at 08:15 . Current consensus is 220,000
20:13 EDTPMI Services Index Level to be reported at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
February PMI Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 54.0
20:13 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
20:13 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
15:40 EDTFed VC Fischer said there is high probability rate will rise this year
Subscribe for More Information
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:22 EDTAverages drift in negative territory
Each of the major equity indices remains in negative territory, with the Nasdaq the laggard. The averages have moved in a narrow range for the last couple of trading sessions despite a host of economic data points that were released during that time. Advancing stocks are narrowly ahead of decliners, crude oil prices are up almost 2% and gold prices are slightly higher. The Dow is down 39 points, the Nasdaq is down 18 points, S&P is down 2 points.
13:50 EDTFed VC Fischer: Fed and the markets are expecting a rate hike this year
Fed VC Fischer: Fed and the markets are expecting a rate hike this year, in his comments at the monetary policy forum in NY. That's not really a surprising comment given other Fedspeak, the dot-plot, etc, and he didn't really indicate a particular time frame. He added that there is still an extraordinary amount of stimulus that the Fed is providing. The big balance sheet is keeping downward pressure on rates, and could pose financial stability risks, but he repeated that there are no plans to start selling MBS. He didn't let any cats out of the bag. The markets will turn their attention to next Friday's jobs report, and what that might support expectations that the FOMC will eliminate "patient" in the March 17, 18 policy statement.
12:55 EDTFedspeak from Fed Chairwoman Yellen next week:
Fedspeak from Fed Chairwoman Yellen next week: she will receive a medal from the Citizens Budget Commission on Tuesday for High Civic Service and will deliver a speech at the dinner honoring her well after the close from 20 ET. Otherwise a gaggle of speakers stack up on Wednesday, starting with Chicago dove Evans on current economic conditions and monetary policy from 9 ET. He will be followed by KC Fed hawk George on the U.S. economy from 13 ET and Dallas Fed uber-hawk Fisher reprising his farewell speech "10-years at the Fed" from 19 ET. On Friday SF Fed Williams graciously accepted an invite from the CFA Society of Hawaii to speak late from 23:15 ET.
12:35 EDTGreece facing liquidity crunch, Reuters says
Subscribe for More Information
11:20 EDTCleveland Fed moderate hawk Mester warned that inert policy
Subscribe for More Information
10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley cautioned on raising rates too soon
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment drop to a upwardly-revised 95.4
The Michigan sentiment drop to a upwardly-revised 95.4 (was 93.6) in February capped the prior six-month climb to a 98.1 cycle-high that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004, after a lower 93.6 reading in December. The upward revision, despite a gasoline price bounce that analysts thought might depress the final Michigan figures, reversed the pattern of downward bumps in the prior three months, and hence reestablished the upward revision tendency of the prior two years. Analysts have an average boost of 0.9 in 2015, versus average boosts of 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. Analysts saw February declines in nearly all of the major confidence gauges. The consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in February from a 103.8 cycle-high in January, but a lower 93.1 in December. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to 42.7 in the fourth week of February from a 45.5 cycle-high average in January. The daily Rasmussen index has slipped to a 109 average in February from a 113.7 cycle-high average in January. The IBD/TIPP index fell to 47.5 from 51.5, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012, though the RBC-IPSOS index rose to a cycle-high 54.7 in February from a 53.3 prior cycle-high in both December and January.
10:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: more strangle (vol) selling
Treasury Option Action: more strangle (vol) selling was reported earlier, with the sale of 8k in May 123/134 strangles (3k and 5k legs) on 10-year futures. March 10s are fractionally firmer near 128-085, compared to their 128-145 to 128-005 range.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar regained some poise
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. pending home sales bounced 1.7% to 104.2 in January
U.S. pending home sales bounced 1.7% to 104.2 in January after falling 1.5% in December to 102.5 (revised up from 100.7). Regionally, sales were higher in 3 of the 4 areas surveyed, paced by the South. Compared to last January, pending home sales are up 6.5% y/y, though not quite the 7.7% y/y clip from December.
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 95.4 in the final February print
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 95.4 in the final February print versus 98.1 in January, but is a little better compared to the 93.6 preliminary February print. The current conditions index dropped to 106.9 from last month's 109.3 (and the 103.1 February preliminary). The expectations component fell to 88.0 from January's 91.0 (87.5 preliminary). The 12-month inflation index climbed to 2.8% from 2.5% in January (but was in line with the 2.8% preliminary). The 5- to 10-year index dipped to 2.7% from January's 2.8% (but was also the same as the 2.7% preliminary).
10:00 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to 45.8 in February
Subscribe for More Information
10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar sagged
FX Action: The dollar sagged after the much weaker Chicago PMI print, lifting EUR-USD from new trend lows, rallying from 1.1176 to over 1.1195. USD-JPY came off its intra day peak of 119.47, slipping into 119.25. Stocks turned modest losses into moderate losses, as yields fell back some.
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields skidded lower
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to x in February
U.S. Chicago PMI plunged an outsized 13.6 points to x in February after edging up 0.6 points to 59.4 in January. The index was last under 50 in April 2013, but this is the lowest since July 2009. The index hit a relative high at 65.1 in October 2013. The internals were mixed, but several of the key components declined, including employment, new orders, and production. Prices paid were higher on the month. The much worse than expected data should knock Treasury yields lower.
09:50 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
U.S. NAR pending home sales preview: the PHSI is forecast to rise to 101.5 in January from 100.7 in December. The index stalled in December, falling 3.7%, despite year-low mortgage rates as low inventories contributed to the slowdown. For more, see the NAR PHSI website.
09:45 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:45 EDTU. Michigan consumer sentiment preview:
U. Michigan consumer sentiment preview: Michigan Sentiment is expected to be revised up to 94.0 in the second (final) release for February from the 93.6 preliminary reading and still down from 98.1 in January. This compares to a pre-December high of 85.1 in June and a low of 55.7 in August '11. Forecast risk is upward, however, given the positive impact of falling gasoline prices. preview for more.
09:40 EDTMarket opens quietly on final trading day of month
Subscribe for More Information
09:37 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 14:25
Subscribe for More Information
09:37 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 23:15
09:37 EDT Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Speech to be released at 13:00
Subscribe for More Information
09:37 EDT Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George Speech to be released at 13:00
Subscribe for More Information
09:37 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 20:15
09:35 EDTFedspeak from the U.S. Montary Policy Forum
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some more bearish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
09:23 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:19 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTThe downward U.S. Q4 GDP growth revision to 2.2%
The downward U.S. Q4 GDP growth revision to 2.2% from 2.6% retained the 2-handle thanks to a smaller than expected downward net export bump of just $4.9 B, alongside boosts in the service consumption and intellectual property components that can't be guessed in advance. Real goods consumption posted a surprising small downward bump alongside higher price figures. Analysts saw the expected big downward revision of $24.7 B for inventories, and smaller expected boosts for construction and equipment spending. Our Q1 GDP estimate will remain at 2.5% until analysts can review Monday's income report, with fairly balanced risks following today's data. The average real GDP growth clip for the expansion slipped to 2.3% (was 2.4%) from 2.4% in Q3, 2.2% in Q2, and 2.1% in Q1, but the same 2.3% back in Q3 and Q4 of 2013 to leave little underlying acceleration as analysts enter 2015 beyond the lift to "real" consumption from falling gasoline prices that will help Q1, but with headwinds from mining sector weakness and a weather hit that might exacerbate a likely inventory growth drop-back.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are still marginally lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields ticked back up
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied after the revised GDP data
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the revised GDP data, which was a touch better than forecasts. EUR-USD edged under 1.1325 from 1.1340, as USD-JPY popped to near 119.45 from 119.25. Equity futures pared some of their modest losses, though remain slightly under water into the open, while yields firmed up a bit.
08:45 EDTU.S. GDP growth slowed to a 2.2% pace in Q4
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made intra day lows of 1.2450
Subscribe for More Information
08:32 EDTFutures remain quiet following release of economic data
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $49.00
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $49.00 early in the session, after ranging between $48.64 and $49.49 overnight. China National Petroleum Corp increased its estimate for demand growth to 3% overnight, which was supportive, though reduced U.S. refinery usage should keep U.S. crude inventories bloated for the near term. RBOB gasoline is near three-week highs, trading over $1.93/gallon, lifting average U.S. retail prices another 3 cents, to $2.37/gallon. Natural gas futures remain heavy at $2.73/M BTU, after sliding 4% Thursday following the EIA inventory report which revealed a smaller draw in supplies than expected.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly lower
Subscribe for More Information
07:40 EDTFDA General & Plastic Surgery Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Panel discusses, makes recommendations and votes on information regarding Bioform's premarket approval application (PMA) panel-track supplement to expand the indication for use for the Radiesse Injectable Implant (Radiesse) device is being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on February 27 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:30 EDTEuropean Central Bank President to speak at forum
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio and Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso participate on a panel at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum being held in New York on February 27.
07:28 EDTCleveland Federal Reserve Bank President to speak at forum
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Mester speaks on the condition of the economy at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum being held in New York on February 27.
07:06 EDTFutures quiet as low volatility continues
Subscribe for More Information
07:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 27
Subscribe for More Information
07:00 EDTFX Update EUR-USD consolidated its toehold
FX Update EUR-USD consolidated its toehold after yesterday's sharp dive to a 1.1183 low, making a rebound high so far of 1.1235. Above-forecast German state inflation data helped the euro's cause, along with a speculative market running an extreme net short exposure. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has been trading a narrow range in the low 119s, unperturbed by a slew of month-end data releases out of Japan. Sterling gave back some recent gains with Cable pushing below 1.5400 after opening in London at 1.5427-29, and EUR-GBP lifting to the upper 0.72s after clocking a new seven-year low for the sixth consecutive day, at 0.7257. UK data provided the market with a cue, including a sub-forecast Gfk consumer confidence and an unexpected 1.4% drop in q/q in Q4 business investment numbers. AUD-USD managed to recover the 0.7800 handle after hitting a three-day low at 0.7777 during Sydney trade. Selling had been seen amid RBA rate cut speculation. The latest Bloomberg poll found 16 of 27 analysts expecting a cut at next Tuesday's meeting.
06:33 EDTGerman parliament approves Greek bailout extension, NY Times reports
Subscribe for More Information
05:50 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
02:50 EDTWeek of 3/11 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
02:50 EDTWeek of 3/2 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
01:55 EDTFX Update EUR-USD found a toehold
Subscribe for More Information
February 26, 2015
21:00 EDTJapan industrial output rose 4.0% in January
Japan industrial output rose 4.0% in January, above 2.7% median forecasts, while manufacturers forecast February output at +0.2% (vs -1.8% previously) and -3.2% in March. Retail sales sank 2.0% y/y in January below -1.3% median forecast. Core CPI rose 2.2% in January y/y, below 2.3% median estimates. The SA jobless rate rose to 3.6% in January from 3.4% previously, while job availability ratio steadied at 1.14 in December. Household spending sank 0.3% in January vs +0.4% forecast, falling 5.1% y/y. Overall, this is still reflecting some mixed messages on Japan's progress with QQE. That said, the Nikkei has opened positively and USD-JPY has steadied over 119.20 after pulling back from 119.42 highs.
16:50 EDT 3-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDTWeek of 3/6 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDT 6-Month Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
16:50 EDTWeek of 3/8 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDTWeek of 3/7 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
16:50 EDTExport Prices data reported.
Subscribe for More Information
16:50 EDTImport Prices data reported.
Subscribe for More Information
15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester: she is in favor of making sure June is a viable option
Cleveland Fed's Mester: she is in favor of making sure June is a viable option in terms of rate liftoff, in a CNBC interview. That's not a new position from her as she's a moderate hawk who spent a lot of time at the Philly Fed before moving to Cleveland. She echoed Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins sentiments that taking patient out of the statement wouldn't necessarily mean there will be a rate hike in June. She could not really say how she would vote come June (hypothetically, as she is not a voter) since the Fed is data dependent and she'll need to see the panoply of data before voting. She expect a 3% GDP growth rate for 2015, and expects inflation to be near the 2% target by the end of next year. She added that "auditing the Fed is mis-named and misguided" in a CNBC interview. She corrected and noted that the Fed is audited. She doesn't think the Fed has become political, and assured policymakers are going to focus on policy and the dual mandate. But she said politics can be a distraction.
14:19 EDTAverages remain mixed, locked in narrow range
Subscribe for More Information
13:55 EDTFed hawk Fisher said the economy is seeing "stout" growth but no inflation
Fed hawk Fisher said the economy is seeing "stout" growth but no inflation, in his comments from London. Never short on analogies, he added the U.S. economy is in the 4th act of a Shakespearean play, but he is not sure whether it is as comedy or a tragedy. Fisher, a long time hawk, will retire following the upcoming March 17, 18 FOMC meeting.
13:55 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
Subscribe for More Information
13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 119.49
FX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 119.49, following the greenback broadly higher. Traders reported some short covering ahead of Friday's busy Japan economic calendar, which took some pressure off the pairing, while the uptick in Treasury yields was helpful as well, though from 19.50 up to 120.00, standing offers are reportedly moving in. Tuesday's 119.83 peak will be the first test, with a break there opening up the February 12 peak of 120.37.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields bounced through highs
Treasury Action: yields bounced through highs following the mediocre takedown on the 7-year auction, which tailed out a tad and had mixed underpinnings. That hijacked a potential relief rally with the series out of the way for the week, driving the current 7-year yield out over 1.83% compared to morning lows of 1.747% and the 1.834% award rate on the new notes. The benchmark 10-year yield cleared 2.0%, with the cash bond testing 2.60% as well.
13:00 EDTSt. Louis moderate hawk Fed's Bullard is concerned that low-yield
Subscribe for More Information
12:45 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook:
Treasury 7-year auction outlook: the $29 B 7-year sale completes this week's batch of offerings which have seen decent to good demand, especially from indirect bidders. Today's sale should be similarly well bid from said account, especially with the German 7-year having turned sub-zero. Also there could be some front running of month-end trades since there is a big extension in February (a refunding month). Additionally, the wi 7-year has cheapened 3 bps to 1.815% -- however, a stop there would be the second richest levels in years and that could leave some potential buyers sidelined. The auction could be on the sloppy side however, thanks to some big price swings since the open. Additionally, the 7-year has tailed in the last five auctions. The January auction was awarded at 1.59% and garnered a 2.50 cover (2.54 average) and a 56.1% indirect bid (47.8% average).
12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update:
Subscribe for More Information
12:00 EDTSF Fed dove Williams sees full employment reached this year
SF Fed dove Williams sees full employment reached this year in impromptu remarks earlier with Fox, saying as well that its important to to look at underlying inflation trends, with core inflation relatively stable. He sees the stronger labor market in turn leading to wage growth and 2% inflation by the end of next year. Williams thinks that some accommation should be removed before analysts get to full employment and 2% inflation, accordingly seeing a first hike some time this summer or fall. He also believes the Fed needs to get away from explicit forward guidance on the rate path. This is relatively hawkish for this voter, but roughly in line with the bulk of recent Fedspeak on the cycle.
11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTEnergy Action: Natural gas futures took a nose dive
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
6-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796GC7
11:07 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796FZ7
11:07 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS and breakevens are rallying again today
Treasury Action: TIPS and breakevens are rallying again today, extending recent gains, with shorter maturities outperforming. The 5-year breakeven is up 10 bps since Tuesday to 156 bps. The long end is lagging a bit but is picking up steam given some front running of the big 0.15 year month-end extension tomorrow given a possible squeeze. Traders are overlooking the largest decline in headline CPI since 2008, and instead are focusing on the 0.2% increase in the core and the steady 1.6% y/y figure. Additionally helping underpin the move have been the rally in copper and signs that gas prices have bottomed. Fed officials have also maintained their mantra that the drop in consumer prices is transitory. Indeed, the hawkish Bullard said earlier today that the rise in core CPI bolsters confidence that inflation will be rising.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending February 20
Gas inventories 219 Bcf draw vs. consensus of 238 Bcf draw.
10:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
10:05 EDTFed policy outlook:
Subscribe for More Information
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended their bounce
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTThe 0.7% January U.S. CPI headline drop
The 0.7% January U.S. CPI headline drop was larger than expected thanks to a particularly big 9.7% energy price drop with a flat food price figure, though analysts saw a firm 0.2% (0.178%) core price rise that was lifted by a 0.3% apparel price rise after big Q4 declines. Analysts expect a 0.1% CPI drop in February thanks to a further net oil price decline before a likely March bounce. Analysts now expect a 0.6% January PCE chain price drop with a 0.1% core price rise. Analysts still expect a flat January nominal PCE figure that is restrained by the big 0.8% January retail sales plunge with a 0.9% ex-auto decline, though analysts expect a big January boost from utility consumption that should fuel a 0.6% rise in the "real" January PCE figure. Our 2.5% Q1 GDP growth forecast assumes 1.1% nominal consumption growth with a 4.7% (was 4.3%) real rise and a 3.1% chain price plunge. Today's CPI decline nearly matched last week's 0.8% January PPI drop, alongside an enormous 2.1% January drop for PPI on the old SOP basis. The January trade price report revealed a 2.0% export price plunge that accompanied an oil-led 2.8% import price decline.
09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
09:43 EDTMarket has another quiet open
Stock futures drifted lower during the pre-market trading session, leading to a flat open for the broader market. The host of economic reports released prior to the open were generally in-line with expectations with the exception of the initial jobless claims report, which showed higher than expected first-time claims last week. The market moved in a narrow range yesterday and may show the same lack of volatility today. The averages are mixed in early trading, with the Dow down 16 points, the Nasdaq up 8 points and the S&P down 1 point.
09:35 EDTThe U.S. durables report
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. equities reversed into the red
U.S. equities reversed into the red in the wake of the trifecta of data that included an uptick in core CPI, headline bounce in durables (weak ex-transport) and rebound in jobless claims; beneath the surface not that strong. The Dow is 12-points in the red, S&P sank 1-point and NASDAQ is up 5-points, below previous shallow gains. Europe is still slightly firmer, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.3% after gains of 1.08% on Japan's Nikkei and a 2.1% rise on the Shanghai Comp amid stimulus hopes. Aside from the mixed data, Salesforce.com jumped nearly 11% after a 26% gain in revenues, along with raised earnings and guidance, while Transocean rose 4.4% after firm results. Morgan Stanley sank 0.5% after a $2.6 B settlement for claims on mortgage bond sales.
09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.8% to 218.6 in December
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTThe 31k U.S. initial claims bounce to 313k
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.7% in January with the core rate rising 0.2%
Subscribe for More Information
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved up
Subscribe for More Information
08:50 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 2.8% in January
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 31k to 313k in the week ended February 21
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up from lows
Treasury Action: yields popped up from lows on the headline data, though the big durables gain was mostly Boeing, the 0.2% rise in core CPI was hardly inflamatory and jobless claims rebounded. That should cap the knee-jerk yield rise to 1.96% on the T-note, which has already pulled back to 1.94% compared to lows near 1.93% earlier. The 2s-10s spread has tightened to +133 bp overnight, but slightly outside earlier narrows.
08:42 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 2/21 Jobless Claims at 313K vs. consensus of 290K
08:38 EDTFutures little changed after economic reports
Subscribe for More Information
08:25 EDTFedspeak from moderate Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed
Fedspeak from moderate Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed on monetary policy and the economic outlook has been cancelled before the 2015 Banking Outlook Conference there. But Dallas Fed hawk Fisher will be again tapping his recent "Reflections on 10-years at the Fed: Through the Financial Crisis" speech in London at Imperial College of London from 13:15 ET.
08:15 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI to slow to a 0.8% y/y pace in January from the 1.5% pace in December. CPI is seen falling 0.3% m/m in January after the 0.7% plunge in December. Another hefty drop in gasoline prices should drive month comparable CPI lower. But the impact of gasoline prices on total CPI should be reduced due to changes made in the CPI weights. The BoC's core CPI index is seen rising 0.1% in January, similar to the action seen in past months of January. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.1% y/y rate, down from the 2.2% clip in December and in-line with the 2.1% pace in November.
08:15 EDTU.S. CPI preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. durable goods orders preview:
U.S. durable goods orders preview: durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.5% in January (median 1.6%), or 0.1% ex-transportation, with shipments up 0.5%. Inventories are expected to grow by 0.3% in January, which would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.66 last month. Forecast risk is downward, as there was a huge drop in Boeing orders in January. preview for more.
08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched intra day highs of 1.2480
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading under $50.40
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading under $50.40 into the N.Y. open, after touching $51.24 highs after the close on Wednesday. Comments from Saudi Arabia's oil minister, who said the demand picture appears to be firming up, was behind the rally. On the other side of the coin, U.S. inventories remain at record highs, and estimates of excess supply of as much as 1.5 M bpd will likely prevent crude prices from moving much higher for now. April RBOB gasoline futures remain firm over $1.92/gallon, after surging more than 9 cents on Wednesday. A larger than expected EIA inventory draw, along with ongoing refinery labor and outage issues have supported this week. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are up another 2 cents/gallon to $2.34, and up 7 cents over the past week, according to AAA. Natural gas prices have eased back into the $2.81 level, as moderating U.S. temperatures reduce demand.
07:45 EDTSt. Louis Fed moderate hawk Bullard wants to remove "patient"
Subscribe for More Information
07:36 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President speaks at conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:35 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold a luncheon discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:30 EDTU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to hold a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:28 EDTFDA & Japan Ministry of Education co-host a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:23 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
Webinar entitled, "Streamlining Risk Management Across the Front & Middle Office" explores how portfolio and risk managers can interact and leverage advanced portfolio analytics to protect against market uncertainty will be held on February 26 at 11 am. Webcast Link
07:16 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:10 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
Subscribe for More Information
06:56 EDTFutures quiet ahead of economic reports
Stock futures are drifting higher following yesterday’s listless session, which was marked by low volatility and an absence of any market moving news. Today investors will be examining weekly jobless claims data, a consumer prices report, durable goods orders, a housing price index and natural gas storage change report for clues about the economy.
06:07 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 26
Subscribe for More Information
05:58 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
February 25, 2015
17:08 EDTWeek of 3/6 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:08 EDT Quarterly Services Survey to be released at 10:00
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:35 EDTAverages drift in record territory
Each of the major stock averages is in positive territory in afternoon trading, which means a new record for the Dow and S&P and another step closer to 5,000 for the Nasdaq. The averages have drifted for most of the session, with most of the time being spent near the flat line, though all turned positive near noon. Despite the slight gains in the market the number of advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 5:4. Near 2:30 pm EST, the Dow is up 10 points, the Nasdaq is up 6 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
14:30 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year auction was well subscribed
Treasury's $35 B 5-year auction was well subscribed, as expected, again supported by indirect bidders. They took 60.1%, the 4th highest on record. The note stopped right on the dime at 1.480%, where it traded at the bid deadline. There were almost $88.9 B in bids for a 2.54 cover, better than the 2.49 from January, but a little off the 2.71 average. But, direct bidders took only 5.2%, while primary dealers accepted 32.4%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
Subscribe for More Information
12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
Subscribe for More Information
12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been dead in the water
Subscribe for More Information
12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more straddle selling
Euro$ interest rate options update: more straddle selling has crept into the mix, according to sources, with a sale of 20k in June 96 straddles in the pits following some 25k in a block sale as well (selling volatility). The June 2015 contract is a half-tick lower at 99.625, while the deferreds extended their slide by up to 3-ticks out the back.
12:10 EDTYellen Q&A: expecting to see upward pressure on wages
Subscribe for More Information
11:55 EDTTreasury's 2-year FRN reopening was solid
Subscribe for More Information
11:35 EDTYellen Q&A: testimony got a little testy
Subscribe for More Information
11:12 EDTWeek of 3/6 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
Subscribe for More Information
10:59 EDTMarch PMI Services Index to be released at 09:45
10:55 EDTYellen Q&A: she wants to improve living wills
Subscribe for More Information
10:50 EDTYellen Q&A: not interested in only rules-based policy
Yellen Q&A: not interested in only rules-based policy, she said this would overly tie the Fed's hand and not be practical. She also noted that any change in forward guidance would mean the Fed wishes to consider whether or not to raise the funds rate. Yellen also confirmed that the Fed is not interested in modifying Dodd-Frank legislation.
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell
Subscribe for More Information
10:35 EDTU.S. new home sales beat estimates
Subscribe for More Information
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of February 20
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTFed Chair Yellen is back on the Hill, reprising her prepared testimony
Fed Chair Yellen is back on the Hill, reprising her prepared testimony from yesterday. So analysts'll wait for the questioning to begin to hear if there is anything new. Analysts don't expect she will change her less than hawkish tone, however. She was straightforward yesterday, stating that while the labor market has improved, it's not there yet in terms of being back to normal.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to edge back up
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales slipped 0.2% to 481k in January
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a larger bullish position
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: January new home sales data should reveal a -3.3% headline decrease to a 465k (median 470k) pace from 481k in December and 431k in November. Other housing measures also fell for the month with starts down -2.0% to 1,065k from 1,087k and existing home sales down -4.9% to 4.820 M from 5.070 M in December.
09:42 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open
Stock futures showed little movement during the pre-market trading session and closed with a slight negative bias. As a result the market had a relatively quiet, though slightly lower, open. Investors will once again listen to Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she speaks before the Financial Services Committee beginning at 10:00 am EST. Investors will also be watching the new home sales report and weekly Department of Energy inventory reports, which are due out at 10 and 10:30 am, respectively. In early trading, the Dow is down 10 points, the Nasdaq is down 8 points and the S&P is down 3 points.
09:40 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
09:34 EDTHouse Homeland Security Committee
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTGoodbye patient, hello "reasonably confident"
Subscribe for More Information
09:14 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Preserving the Multistakeholder Model of Internet Governance" with CEO Chehade of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) on February 25 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are marginally lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:44 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a discussion
Colonel Mateo Martemucci, U.S. Air Force, discusses the threat landscape in cyberspace, distinguishing between cyber attacks, cyber exploits, and cyber espionage in a discussion being held in Cleveland, Ohio on February 25 at 12 pm.
07:41 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi testifies
ECB President Draghi Testifies Before European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium on February 25 at 11:30 am.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.5%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.5% in data released earlier, while the purchase index rose 4.6% and the refinancing index sank 7.5% for the week ended February 20. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 6 basis points to 3.99% as an interim Greek debt debt reduced some safety premium for bonds, though data continues to come in mixed. Indeed, Yellen's testimony yesterday highlighted sluggishness in housing, despite low mortgage rates, as one factor justifying her affinity for policy patience for now. Analysts'll get another round of new home sales data today, which could underscore that point, after recent updates on existing home sales and housing starts have proved disappointing.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to higher
Subscribe for More Information
07:32 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:26 EDTFutures slightly lower in early trading
U..S. equity futures are lower this morning in early trading. Yesterday Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated, during testimony before a Senate committee, that the Fed would take a patient approach to raising interest rates. Today investors will be examining a new home sales report and the weekly Department of Energy Inventory report.
07:21 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
Subscribe for More Information
07:20 EDTCROI Foundation to hold a conference
Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections: CROI 2015 is being held in Seattle, Washington on February 23-26.
07:19 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
06:41 EDTChina flash PMI hit four month high, Reuters reports
Subscribe for More Information
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 25
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.10%, DAX up 0.05%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.15, natural gas up 0.38%, gold at $1207 an ounce, copper down 0.57%.
05:47 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
02:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has trade firmer
Subscribe for More Information
February 24, 2015
17:24 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:40 EDTYellen testimony pushes market higher
The Dow and S&P 500 remain higher in afternoon trading and the Nasdaq is little changed. The Nasdaq's breather, however, come after the index has put together a string of nine consecutive higher closes for the first time since July 2009. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by about 5:4 and oil is fractionally higher. The Dow is up 86 points, the S&P is up 4 points and the Nasdaq is flat.
14:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD took a dive following comments from the BoC's Poloz
Subscribe for More Information
14:10 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:01 EDTWeek of 3/7 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:50 EDTYellen Pitches Patience to Senate:
Subscribe for More Information
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: short yields remained at lows
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTTreasury's $26 B 2-year sale was well received
Treasury's $26 B 2-year sale was well received. Thanks Janet. The note priced well, stopping just through at 0.603% (the richest of the session) versus 0.605% at the bid deadline. The yield richened measurable from the 0.66% level at the time of Yellen's testimony (and it compares to last month's 0.540%). Bids totaled $89.7 B for a 3.45 cover, weaker than January's 3.74, but better than both December's 3.21 ($27 B auctioned) and the 3.38 average. Indirect bidders accepted 48.2% versus 48.6% previously and a 32.4% average. Direct bidders were awarded 9.0% against last month's 8.8%. Primary dealers took 38.5% versus 42.6%.
12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
Subscribe for More Information
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is down flirting with the 119.00 level
FX Action: USD-JPY is down flirting with the 119.00 level, touching 118.97 before reclaiming the figure again. Aside from the post-Yellen blip to 119.84, and subsequent sell-off, trade has been quiet, as the market takes nothing terribly new away from the Fed Chief's commentary. As a result, USD-JPY looks set to maintain recent trading ranges, inside of 118.00-120.00.
12:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Fed remains "patient" is the main takeaway
Subscribe for More Information
12:05 EDTWhat keeps Yellen up at night?:
Subscribe for More Information
11:55 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill sale was routine
Treasury's $40 B 4-week bill sale was routine but demand was not as strong as recent offerings. The bill stopped right on the screws at 0.015 %, and is fractionally cheaper than last week's 0.010% award rate. There were $146.1 B in bids for a 3.68 cover, slightly less than last week's 3.75 and the 3.95 for the week before that. Indirect bidders took 35.2%, up from the prior 26.7%. That's the highest since December 30.
11:50 EDTYellen on international factors:
Subscribe for More Information
11:35 EDTYellen said raising rates too soon could risk undermining the recovery
Subscribe for More Information
11:20 EDTYellen on "Audit the Fed":
Yellen on "Audit the Fed": it is critical that the Fed can deliberate on the best way it can meet goals, while GAO reviews in real time might have inhibited Fed actions in the past to tackle inflation. Research has demonstrated that independent central banks perform better and economies are more stable. Otherwise, this would bring short-term political pressure on the Fed, which is already extensively audited. Bottom line - she strongly opposes.
11:05 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury yields have retrenched
Subscribe for More Information
10:55 EDTYellen noted tepid wage growth
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTYellen on inflation index:
Subscribe for More Information
10:38 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on February 24 at 11 am.
10:25 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence February drop to 96.4
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0 in February
U.S. Richmond Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0 in February after dipping 1 point to 6 in January. The employment index dipped to 4 from 5, with the workweek tumbling to -6 from 8. Wages more than doubled to 8 from 3. New order volume declined to -2 from 4. The prices paid index was 0.32% from 0.70% (annualized percent change), with prices received at 0.09% from 0.53%. The 6-month business activity shipment index was steady at 30, with employment at 12 versus 18. The 6-month wage index was 23 from 31. New orders were 24 from 29. The capital expenditures outlook index fell to 27 from 36. The prices paid index was 0.91% from 1.17%, and prices received were 0.48% from 0.82%.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields bolted to session highs
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved broadly higher
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February
U.S. consumer confidence fell 7.4 points to 96.4 in February after surging 10.7 points to 103.8 in January (revised from 102.9). Declines were registered in both components, unwinding some of the January pop. The present situations index slid to 110.2 from 113.9 (revised from 112.6). The expectations index dropped to 87.2 from 97.0 (revised from 96.4). The labor market differential fell to -5.7 from -3.9 (revised from -5.2). The 12-month inflation index edged up to 5.0% from 4.9% previously (revised from 5.0%).
10:10 EDTFed Chair Yellen: a rate hike is unlikely over the next couple of meetings
Subscribe for More Information
10:09 EDTYellen says oil drop likely a 'significant overall plus'
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said today in testimony to Congress, "While the drop in oil prices will have negative effects on energy producers and will probably result in job losses in this sector, causing hardship for affected workers and their families, it will likely be a significant overall plus, on net, for our economy. Primarily, that boost will arise from U.S. households having the wherewithal to increase their spending on other goods and services as they spend less on gasoline."
10:07 EDTYellen says Fed can be 'patient' for at least next couple of meetings
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI climbed to 57.0 in February
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTPMI Services Flash Level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTYellen Monetary Policy Report preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTTreasury Option/block Action: a large strangle
Subscribe for More Information
09:37 EDTMarket opens quietly ahead of Fed Chair testimony
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 0.06% in December to 173.02
U.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 0.06% in December to 173.02, versus 172.92 in November (revised down from 172.94) for the 20-City composite, beating forecasts of a small decline. This breaks a string of 3 straight monthly declines. Compared to last year, home prices accelerated to a 4.46% y/y gain versus the 4.29% y/y pace previously. The 10-City composite edged up 0.07% to 187.81 compared to November's 187.68 (revised from 187.71). That's up 4.30% y/y compared to 4.15% y/y. All 20 cities surveyed posted annual gains, led by San Francisco (9.35% y/y), Miami (8.4% y/y) and Denver (8.14% y/y).
09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained tightly rangebound
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made two-week highs of 1.2663
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are trading laterally
Subscribe for More Information
08:59 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTU.S. Case-Shiller home price index preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:35 EDTYellen testimony might be more meaningful
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude remained under the $50 mark
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales dipped 0.2% in the week ended February 21
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a luncheon discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:53 EDTCato Institute to hold a discussion
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDT5 things to watch for in Yellen's testimony
Subscribe for More Information
07:44 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses proposed criteria for developing the list of bulk drug substances that may be used to compound drug products in accordance with section 503A of the FD&C Act and also discusses six substances nominated for inclusion on the list on Day 2 of the meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, MD's offices on February 24 at 8:15 am. Webcast Link
07:42 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
The Dermatologic & Ophthalmic Drugs Advisory Committee and Ophthalmic Devices Panel discuss Avedro's New Drug Application (NDA) 203324 for Riboflavin Ophthalmic Solutions with UV-A irradiation which are used in corneal collagen cross-linking and proposed to be indicated for treatment of progressive keratoconus or corneal ectasia following refractive surgery in a joint committee meeting being held in FDA Silver Spring, Maryland's offices on February 24 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:23 EDTBarron's to hold a webinar
Subscribe for More Information
07:22 EDTFutures quiet ahead of Fed testimony
Subscribe for More Information
06:15 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 24
Subscribe for More Information
05:54 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
03:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY extended above the Tokyo high
FX Action: USD-JPY extended above the Tokyo high in making 119.29 in early London AM trade, since settling just off here. Momentum on the daily chart is positive, and both the 20- and 50-day moving averages are holding up as supports, presently sitting at 118.57 and 118.81, respectively. Recent daily highs at 119.35-41 provide a near-term resistance zone, a breach of which would swing the Feb-11 peak at 120.47 back into scope. There is reportedly a batch of big options with strikes at 120.00 that are expiring through this week, which could in theory exert some gravitational pull on spot. Despite there being a muddy picture about whether the BoJ is or isn't headed for further easing measures later this year, analysts remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, as the Fed and BoJ are on sufficiently contrasting paths that favour the dollar.
02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has continued to ply a narrow range
Subscribe for More Information
February 23, 2015
22:45 EDTPhilippine imports sank 10.6% in December
Subscribe for More Information
21:00 EDTJapan services PPI fell 0.5% in January
Japan services PPI fell 0.5% in January after a 0.1% decline in December. That resulted in a slowdown in the annual pace to a 3.4% y/y clip in January, from a downwardly revised 3.5% y/y rate (was 3.6% y/y). Weakness last month was in transportation and property, casualty services. The data will be disappointing to the BoJ and the government which are continuing to try to boost inflationary pressures.
17:11 EDTOctober PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
17:11 EDTNovember PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
17:11 EDTJuly PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
17:11 EDTMay PMI Services Flash to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
17:11 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:11 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
Subscribe for More Information
17:11 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
15:40 EDTSF Fed's Williams said he would not rule out a June rate hike
Subscribe for More Information
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:34 EDTOPEC said to have no emergency meeting plans, Bloomberg reports
Subscribe for More Information
14:29 EDTAverages drift in mid-afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
14:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning was reported late in the session against the grain of earlier gains, perhaps setting up for Yellen testimony. This involved a 10k purchase of Short June 81/83/85/86 broken put condors. That said, deferred contracts are still up 1-8 ticks out the back end as stocks cool their heels and bonds recoup some of Friday's losses.
14:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD reacted to the earlier spike in oil
Subscribe for More Information
14:10 EDTYellen Monetary Policy Report preview:
Yellen Monetary Policy Report preview: will she or won't she hint at a mid-year rate hike? Analysts expect she will split the difference, suggesting liftoff is in the cards, but not pre-committing ahead of the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. The Fed Chair will reiterate the Fed mantra that the path is data dependent. Assuming that's the case, analysts'll look for nuances on how she navigates the various crosscurrents that will determine the policy outlook. She will try to reconcile for the Congress the stronger labor market, the improved economy, and the pick up in spending with weak wages, soft inflation, and risks from overseas, but probably will not stray far from the FOMC minutes in doing so. She will likely say the Fed will be "patient" in removing stimulus especially since various conditions for tightening have yet to be met. She can also acknowledge the conflicting impacts of the stronger dollar. Her tone will be scrutinized to see if she is on the side of other Committee members who want to leave rates low for longer. "Audit the Fed" may also occupy a lot of the testimony.
14:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to $50.51
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTJanus' advisor Bill Gross just Tweeted:
Subscribe for More Information
12:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in
U.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in ahead of Yellen's testimony tomorrow, but generally it's a more wait-and-see mode. Kinder Morgan has a $750 M 31-year bond. Arrow Electronics has a $700 M 7-year deal. Daimler Finance has a benchmark 3-year FRN. Harley -Davidson is selling $500 M in 5-year notes. Coach announced a $400 M 10-year. Commonwealth Edison is selling $400 M in a 30-year FMB. There is not a lot of pressure on Treasuries today from the offerings, or from upcoming Treasury auctions thanks to weakness in equities, some correction from oversold conditions, expectations of solid month-end demand, and as many suspect Yellen will be less than hawkish tomorrow.
12:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady just under 119.00
Subscribe for More Information
12:25 EDTU.S. equities are still trending sideways
U.S. equities are still trending sideways caught between lingering doubts about the Greece-inspired rally on Friday and the upcoming Fed Yellen semi-annual testimony. Fresh energy sector angst after NYMEX crude probed $48 bbl also managed to stifle last week's rally as well, leaving the blue chips in shallow negative territory, while NASDAQ retains a weak grip on the green. Among the top gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +3.1%, du Pont +0.7% and P&G + 0.7%, while deepest losses remain Boeing -2.4% (after Goldman "sell"), Intel -1.7% and JP Morgan -1.0%.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
Subscribe for More Information
11:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated after deal on bailout program
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF March call option implied volatility is at 77, April is at 73, June is at 64; compared to its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement following Greece's provisional deal on its bailout program.
11:35 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February from -4.4 in January, a 5 year low. Of course the weakness is not a surprise considering the region's exposure to the oil industry. Conditions outside the energy sector were generally upbeat.
11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate option update: more bullish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are likely to dominate near term
Subscribe for More Information
11:08 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $40.0 B
10:40 EDTThe 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop
The 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop to a 4.82 M January clip left an ugly start for 2015, as did a 4.1% January median price drop to $199,600 that extended the late-2014 seasonal downswing from the $222,000 June cycle-high. Inventories posted an anemic 0.5% January bounce to a still-depressed 1.87 M level that marks a 0.5% y/y drop. Existing home sales have entered 2015 at an anemic pace and inventories remain depressed, while prices continue to post a modest cyclical climb but with gains seasonally concentrated into Q2 of each year. Analysts now have cyclical gains of just 40% for existing home sales and 32% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 72% for new home sales, 123% for housing starts, and 105% for permits. Harsh weather may hold back sales in February and March, as this gauge tracks closings and may show a delayed response to January and February storms. Weather likely had little to do with January weakness, as sales declines extended across the four regions, and the biggest drop was a 7.1% decline in the West where weather was normal.
10:15 EDTU.S. existing home sales dropped 4.9% in January to a 4.82 M rate
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to slide lower
Treasury Action: yields continued to slide lower with the opening declines in stocks and the weak print on existing home sales, which have caught the markets offsides. Considering that mortgage rates fell to trend lows again in January, there must be some winter freeze effects in the data that are offsetting the near historic low rates. The T-note yield probed just below 2.07% compared to highs in Asia of 2.136% and 2.141% on Friday after the Greek deal, with lower highs suggesting downward momentum building and putting Friday lows of 2.045% within reach. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +146 bp.
10:00 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: bullish positioning included the purchase of 5k in June 129.5 calls on 10-year futures, with March 10s some 13-ticks firmer near 127-26 relative to their 127-265 to 127-135 range on Globex.
09:43 EDTFutures improve slightly but market begins week lower
U.S. equity futures were lower overnight but improved slightly prior to the open of the broader market. The Chicago Fed national activity index was generally in-line with expectations and investors will next turn their attention to the release of the existing home sales report, which is due out at 10:00 am EST. Ahead of the housing data, the Dow is down 65 points, the Nasdaq is down 1 point and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:40 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Still Lean, though Shipments and Inventories Bounce:
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to highs last seen on February 12
Subscribe for More Information
09:20 EDTDA Davidson construction analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
Subscribe for More Information
08:59 EDTJPMorgan U.S. fixed income analysts hold an anlayst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:54 EDTCFA Society of Seattle to hold a discusison
Subscribe for More Information
08:52 EDTThe Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on monetary policy
Subscribe for More Information
08:51 EDTBrookings Institution holds a discussion
Brookings hosts a discussion entitled, "The Future of Medical Device Safety & Innovation" in Washington, D.C. on February 23 at 9 am. Webcast Link
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Actvity index rebounded to 0.13 in January
Subscribe for More Information
08:38 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
08:30 EDTThree central bank leaders face legislative bodies this week
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Subscribe for More Information
07:43 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:41 EDTMedStar Heart Institute to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:20 EDTMarket begins week in record territory
Subscribe for More Information
07:20 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
Subscribe for More Information
07:05 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 23
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.73%, DAX up 0.33%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.69, natural gas up 0.26%, gold at $1193 an ounce, copper down 0.91%.
07:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
Subscribe for More Information
07:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble
FX Update: EUR-USD took a tumble during London AM trade, from levels around 1.1380 to a 1.1295 low before finding a toehold. The move was prompted by disappointing German Ifo data, while Greece's four-month loan extension doesn't solve the underlying contentions of the new government in Athens. Analysts also picked up on conjecture in markets that Fed boss Yellen's testimony this week may produce hawkish sound bites, which has lifted the dollar's yield advantage back to within a whisker of last Wednesday's cycle high around 175 bp in the 10-year T-note versus Bund differential. USD-JPY nudged above Friday's peak at 119.19, making a high of 119.35 despite talk of Japanese exporter selling into month end. Cable posted six-day lows under 1.5335 on a disappointing UK CBI retails sales outcome. AUD-USD took a sizeable hit, which were blamed on a drop in commodity prices today. See summary
06:57 EDTGreece, creditors holding talks on reforms, Reuters says
Subscribe for More Information
05:48 EDTMarch front month equity options last day to trade is March 20, 2015
03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY nudged above Friday's peak
Subscribe for More Information
03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD settled to familiar levels around 1.1380
Subscribe for More Information
February 22, 2015
14:11 EDTWest Coast port shutdowns avoided with five-year labor deal, Bloomberg says
Subscribe for More Information
February 20, 2015
21:58 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
February Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 58.7
21:58 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
February Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 11:00 . Current consensus is 3
21:58 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
January Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 2.0% for the month
21:58 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
January New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 471K
21:58 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
February Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is [2.8]
21:58 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
21:58 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
January Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.15
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
15:05 EDTTreasury Action: supply will complicate trading
Treasury Action: supply will complicate trading ahead as the debt market absorbs $90 B in shorter to intermediate coupon offerings and a $13 B 2-year FRN, all of which will be hyper sensitive to Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Additionally, traders will have to deal with the fallout from Greece and data. When issued yields are little changed after having richened most of the session. The 2-year is at 0.680%, while the 5-year is at 1.615%, with the 7-year at 1.940%. A stop here on the 2-year would be one of the cheapest in years, but it may not be high enough to compensate for the potential of Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, rates on the 5- and 7-year notes are some of the lowest in months, and that may limit buying as well. However, there is likely to be solid indirect bidding given wide spreads to core sovereigns, and especially with the ECB's QE program to begin shortly.
14:47 EDTEurogroup says agreement for Greece reached, Bloomberg reports
Bloomberg cites a Eurogroup spokesperson on the extension agreement.
14:38 EDT'Outline agreement' for Greek deal drafted, Reuters says
Euro zone finance ministers have developed an "outline agreement that could form the basis for extending" Greece's bailout, Greek officials and officials from other euro zone countries said, according to Reuters. However, no "formal deal on a common text" has been made, the news service quoted the officials as saying. Reference Link
14:22 EDTGreek bailout hopes propel Dow to new high
Subscribe for More Information
13:50 EDTRetiring Philly Fed hawk Plosser is concerned about volatility
Subscribe for More Information
13:35 EDTHumphrey Hawkins preview:
Subscribe for More Information
13:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTGreek official says accord on bailout may have been reached, Bloomberg reports
Subscribe for More Information
13:12 EDTGreek official says accord on bailout may have been reached, Bloomberg says
Subscribe for More Information
13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found some support
FX Action: USD-JPY found some support on the back of potential resolution of the Greek crisis, moving from lows of 118.30 this morning, back to highs over 118.85. Wall Street is back in the green, which has helped sentiment, though as Fed rate hike sentiment has been dialed back some since the FOMC minutes, and prospects for BoJ easing being pushed back, there will not likely be a rush to buy USD-JPY in the coming sessions.
12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: decent call buying
Treasury Option Action: decent call buying was reported in the mix, in line with the better tone on fixed income futures to round out the week amid Greek debt acrimony, with sources otherwise preoccupied by calendar roll activity. Among the larger bullish deals were purchases of 15k in April 130 calls, 16k in week 1 129/130 call spreads and 10k in June 129+ calls. This heavily outweighed bearish demand for 3k in March 128+ puts and 5k in April 126/125 put spreads and a bearish sale of 4k in June 126.5 calls among others. March 10s are still 15-ticks higher near 128-02, while June 10s are 15.5-ticks firmer near 127-115.
11:30 EDTU.S. equities snapped back from session lows
Subscribe for More Information
10:50 EDTTreasury Action: short covering into the weekend has boosted Treasuries
Treasury Action: short covering into the weekend has boosted Treasuries, especially with Grexit uncertainties overhanging the markets. Equities remain cautiously lower. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 2.04% and a close there would be the lowest since February 12, though still inside the recent range. Meanwhile, the advent of Yellen's testimony next week should keep trading on the quiet side as the markets try to weigh the contradictory nature of the January FOMC policy statement, the minutes, and Fedspeak, not to mention the data. Key for her testimony will be how she navigates and spins a strengthening labor market, an improved economy (though growth has slowed from the heady Q2 and Q3 pace), deflationary price pressures, and soft wage growth. She will have to dance around the "patient" issue and not give any clear hints on whether it will be retained or dropped from the March policy statement, as she won't want to pre-empt the policy decision.
10:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call positioning
Subscribe for More Information
10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag of flows
Euro$ interest rate options: a mixed bag of flows has trickled out over the morning. Among them were bullish purchases of 2k in Short December 90/95 call 1x2s, 2k in Green March 83/85 call spreads and 2k in Front June 95/96/97 call butterflies. There was also a sale of 2k in September 96/97 call spreads vs a purchase of June 96/97 call spreads. Sources reported some selling of volatility earlier to the tune of 7k in June 96 straddles as well. June 2015s are a tick lower at 99.59, while the deferreds are as much as 6.5-ticks higher out the back amid pre-weekend jitters over Greece.
10:04 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI rose to 54.3 in February
U.S. Markit flash PMI rose to 54.3 in February versus 53.9 for January and December. It's the highest reading since November and breaks a string of declines since September as manufacturing activity had been cooling since hitting a peak in June with the index at 57.3. The index has been above the neutral 50 threshold for nearly five-and-a-half years. Meanwhile, some of the internals offset the improved headline as both employment and new orders declined, with the latter at ist lowest since January 2014, and the former at its lowest since July. Export sales were close to stagnation, according to the report. Input prices dipped modestly to the lowest level since July 2012.
09:47 EDTGreek issues weigh on market
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTEnergy Action: February NYMEX crude is down
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. CPI was revised slightly higher
U.S. CPI was revised slightly higher with its annual release of new seasonal factors. December CPI was nudged up to -0.3% versus the -0.4% reported previously. The core rate was also bumped up to 0.1% versus unchanged initially. There were no changes to November's prints of -0.3% and 0.1% for the headline and core rates, respectively, while the headline October rate was revised up to 0.1% from flat. The small revisions don't really alter the picture of soft price pressures.
09:03 EDTOppenheimer technology analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD ran up to 1.2530 from 1.2470
FX Action: USD-CAD ran up to 1.2530 from 1.2470 following ugly Canadian retail sales data. The pairing has been on the decline through the London morning session, as oil prices stabilized some at higher levels, though the data has trumped for the near term at least. Yesterday's 1.2554 peak provides initial resistance from here.
08:45 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:26 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:21 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a discussion
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTEnergy Action: February NYMEX crude
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are firmer
Subscribe for More Information
07:17 EDTThe FDA to hold a public workshop
Public Workshop entitled, "Optimizing FDA's Regulatory Oversight of Next Generation Sequencing Diagnostic Test" will discuss and receive feedback from the community on FDA’s regulatory approach to diagnostic tests for human genetics or genomics using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) technology in Bethesda, Maryland on February 20 at 8:30 am.
07:15 EDTFDA Orthopaedic & Rehabilitation Devices Panel to hold a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:01 EDTFutures quiet as Greek deadline approaches
Subscribe for More Information
06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD took a clobber
FX Update: EUR-USD took a clobber, triggering stops through 1.1350 before extending to an eight-day low at 1.1303 after breaching recent lows at 1.1319-22. The move also marks a decisive break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1355. Markets are still waiting on Greece's negotiations with the Eurozone, while the dollar's yield advantage pushed out back above 170 bp at the 10-year T-note versus Bund differential. Fed's Bullard said he is worried markets may view the Fed as falling behind the curve, and a WSJ article yesterday postulated that this week's FOMC minutes weren't as dovish as they appeared on closer inspection. Sterling, meanwhile, traded softer, partly in reaction to sub-forecast retail sales data out of the UK and partly as a consequence of remarks by BoE MPC member McCafferty, who expressed some concern about the pound's strength (which is trading at seven-year highs against the euro), in an interview in the Independent newspaper today. Cable traded to a two-day low at 1.5352 after dropping from levels around 1.5430, extending the correction from Wednesday's near two-month peak at 1.5480. USD-JPY ebbed back to the 118.60-70 area as the pair reverses some of yesterday's gain. See summary
06:41 EDTEuro zone PMI rose in February, NY Times reports
Subscribe for More Information
06:35 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility up on Greek bailout talks with EU
Subscribe for More Information
05:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for February 20
Subscribe for More Information
04:17 EDTFebruary front month equity options last day to trade is today,February 20, 2015
02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD remains heavy
Subscribe for More Information
02:04 EDTWeek of 3/4 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
02:04 EDTWeek of 2/23 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:04 EDTFebruary Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
Subscribe for More Information
00:10 EDTBoJ governor Kuroda: achieving a 2% inflation target is possible
Subscribe for More Information
<< 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >>

Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing.
I agree to the theflyonthewall.com disclaimer & terms of use