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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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June 29, 2015
16:29 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:29 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:29 EDTFitch downgrades Puerto Rico GO ratings to CC from B
Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's general obligation and related debt ratings to 'CC' from 'B'. The ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative. The downgrade of the ratings to 'CC', which indicates Fitch's belief that default of some kind appears probable, is based on public comments by the governor supporting the broad debt restructuring strategy included in an external report released this morning by GDB, the ratings agency stated.
15:03 EDTFarm Prices data reported
June Farm Prices down -7.0%
15:03 EDTFarm Prices data reported
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15:03 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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14:45 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility increases on Greece imposing capital controls
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14:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: May consumer confidence is out on Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 96.0 (median 96.8) after an increase to 95.4 in May. The already released Michigan Sentiment showed a big improvement for the month with a 96.1 headline in the second release from 90.7 last month. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month did decline, however, falling to 48.1 from 49.7.
14:30 EDTS&P cuts Greece to CCC-, says probability of eurozone exit now about 50%
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14:20 EDTS&P cuts Greece to CCC- from CCC with a negative outlook
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The euro is higher in thin post-Europe trade
FX Action: The euro is higher in thin post-Europe trade despite today having been a tumultuous one in European equity and bond markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 2.7% for the worse, the biggest daily loss this year. The Greek two-year yield rose to 34.4% after a 14 percentage points gain today, while the 10-year yield climbed above 15% for the first time since 2012. EUR-USD, however, has managed to more than recover the sharp losses that were seen first thing in Asia-Pacific, presently settled about 20 pips off the days high at 1.1278. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses are also up. There doesn't appear to be any good explanation why this is so, though it may simply reflect a position clear out as there is both upside and downside risk depending on how developments unfold this week.
14:15 EDTCanada April GDP Preview
Canada April GDP Preview: Analysts expect GDP, due Tuesday, to rise 0.1% in April (median same at +0.1%) after the 0.2% drop in March. An as expected 0.1% gain would leave GDP on track for a 1.0% rise in Q2, which would undershoot the BoC's 1.7% estimate from the April MPR. While the 0.1% gain would be rather modest, it would contrast with the declines in January (-0.2%), February (-0.1%) and March (-0.2%).
14:06 EDTMarket falls to session lows in afternoon trading
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14:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures extended gains
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13:55 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility index bolted 26% higher
U.S. VIX equity volatility index bolted 26% higher to 17.82 highs from lows of 15.82 and as low as 11.93 just a week ago. This is coming hot on the heels of 4% plunge in the Euro Stoxx 50, which has spilled over to a 1.3% drop in the S&P 500. That's the highest VIX level since mid-February, which at that pace puts the index in range of the 25.20 December 19, 2014, high within a couple more sessions, a level set during the last skirmish over Greece. The S&P 500 has meanwhile taken out June lows of 2,072.14 with a low of 2,071.00 today and has May 6 lows of 2,067.93 in its sights.
13:20 EDTA federal bailout of Puerto Rico is not being contemplated
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12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: a big call seller on bonds
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was disappointing
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11:50 EDTU.S. equities are stumbling to fresh lows with Europe
U.S. equities are stumbling to fresh lows with Europe which is closing out by extending losses sharply as the enormity of the potential Grexit sets in. The Euro Stoxx 50 spiraled to a 4.1% loss on the day, led by banking stocks and peripheral weakness. Portugal sank 5.1%, Spain -4.5% and Italy -4.7%, while in core Europe the German DAX was -3.4%, French CAC -3.7% and UK FTSE -1.8%. The NASDAQ comp was subsequently spooked -1.4%, while the Dow and S&P are about 1% lower now. That helped cap the T-note yield under 2.41% and it has since eased under 2.37% as Bunds firmed up into their close as well. The dollar index is 1.25% lower near 95.15, as short-covering on the euro kicks in and it indeed could be a stronger unit without Greece, once past the volatility assuming contagion is contained.
11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy put buying in the belly
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11:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain lower but off their intraday nadirs
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:07 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:55 EDTRisk of a Puerto Rico debt default
Risk of a Puerto Rico debt default continues to swirl around the credit markets, just to keep things interesting given the focus on Grexit and China rate cuts. PR Central Bank governor Padilla warned of a potential "death spiral" earlier, noting that "The debt is not payable, there is not other option. This is not politics, this is math. But analysts have to make the economy grow. If not, analysts will be in a death spiral." Padilla is expected to issue a financial report of the U.S. territory's finances conducted by former IMF/World bank officials by tomorrow and then deliver a major policy ultimatim. The main electricity provider PREPA alone needs to make a $400 M payment to creditors by July 1, out of $9 B outstanding. Defualt partial or full risks spilling back over to U.S. credit markets via heavy holdings of PR debt by U.S. funds.
10:50 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June after falling to -20.8 in May. This is a 6th consecutive month that the regional index has been in contractionary territory (below zero), which is mainly a function of the recession in the oil sector. The employment component rose to -1.2 from -8.2, with the workweek at -10.7 from -11.6, and wages at 16.4 versus 14.7. New orders edged up to -10.3 from -14.1. Prices paid climbed to 7.4 from -1.7, with prices received at -1.9 versus -8.7. The 6-month index doubled to 8.1 from 4.9, with employment at 16.9 versus 14.1, new orders at 33.9 from 35.3 and prices paid at 19.3 from 21.1.
10:34 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Production Index data reported
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10:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is softer versus the euro
FX Action: The dollar is softer versus the euro in the wake of the pending home sales miss, though the loss was more reflective of a bout of euro gains, which seems to have been led by a surge in EUR-JPY. EUR-USD gained gain about 30 pips in the latest phase, touching 1.1160, since settling back under 1.1150. The move 'closed the gap' left by the dive seen in early Asia-Pacific time. EUR-JPY rallied by around 50 pips, which USD-JPY rebounded from a dip to 122.82. There's not likely to be too much commitment in the market ahead of key U.S. data this week, and with the Greek situation coming to a head.
10:25 EDTWTI crude tumbled 1.3% to $58.80 bbl
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10:15 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 14:00
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to inch back up
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales rose 0.9% to 112.6 in May
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10:05 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview
U.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview: The June Dallas Fed index should reveal a headline improvement to -17.0 from -20.8 last month. Producer sentiment looks poised to rebound in June as the shock from plunging oil prices appears to have diminished as analysts discussed in recent commentary. This should allow the ISM-adjusted average to improve to 52 in June after holding at 51 for two months. For a look at all the measures of producer sentiment check out our page.
09:55 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
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09:40 EDTUpside Risk for U.S. June Payrolls:
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09:32 EDTGreek debt breakdown leads to lower open
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09:30 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads shot wider
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09:23 EDTGreek banks to reopen Thursday, Reuters reports
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The CAD is trading slightly firmer against the USD and EUR
FX Action: The CAD is trading slightly firmer against the USD and EUR, despite sub-expectations IPPI data out of Canada and softer oil prices today. USD-CAD is testing the waters under 1.2350 after retreating from the 1.2360-70 area. The 20-day moving average is at 1.2338 and the European AM low is at 1.2304. This will be an expectations-shaping week with regard to the timing of Fed tightening, which should limit directional bias for now. Canadian April GDP data, meanwhile, due tomorrow is expected to rise 0.1%, which would leave GDP on track to rise 1.0% in Q2 following the Q1 contraction, undershooting the BoC's 1.7% estimate from the April MPR.
08:45 EDTFed's Dudley said a September rate hike is still "very much in play,"
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08:42 EDTBofA/Merrill Brazilian economist holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities will open lower
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08:25 EDTFX Update: Dollar majors have settled to steady price action
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07:55 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Index Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI to rise 0.7% m/m in May (median +0.6%) following the 0.9% drop in April. Analysts again have a mixed bag of ingredients for the May IPPI forecast: Gasoline prices jumped 5.5% on a month average basis, the BoC's commodity price index surged 5.5% m/m while the Canadian dollar appreciated versus the USD (on a month average basis). Hence, the forecast risk is mixed, but analysts would lean towards the upside given the run-up in gasoline and commodity prices during the month. The RMPI is seen rising 3.5% in May (median +4.8%) as oil prices were up 9.8% to $59.3/bbl from $54.1/bbl.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are surging on a flight to safety
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07:48 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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07:46 EDTCowen trucking/logistics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Managing Director Jason Seidl, along with Joseph Cowan, CEO of Cowan Systems, John Meyers, President of North East Association of Rail Shippers, Ray Hufnagel, President of Plastic Express and Co-Founder & CEO Andrew McElroy of Transfix discuss the latest volume trends, the impacts from the oil price decline, and expectations for 2Q15 and the full year on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 6 at 10:30 am.
07:25 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to hold a forum
Global Economic Forum is being held in St. Louis, MO on June 29-30.
07:13 EDTConstruction Financial Management Association holds a conference
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07:09 EDTFutures lower after Greek referendum plans announced
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06:56 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility up into Greece shuts banks, imposes capital controls
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 29
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05:53 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro is under pressure
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June 28, 2015
17:27 EDTGreek PM says banks to remain shut, country will reject 'unacceptable' ultimatum
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15:27 EDTEuropean Commission publishes proposals in wake of troubled Greek talks
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June 27, 2015
02:17 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
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02:17 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
June Employment Situation Unemployment Rate will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 5.4%
02:17 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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02:17 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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02:17 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
May Construction Spending will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
02:17 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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02:17 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
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02:17 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
June Consumer Confidence will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 97.4
02:17 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey General Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
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02:17 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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02:17 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
May Pending Home Sales Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.6% for the month
June 26, 2015
18:24 EDTGreek PM Tsipras sets July 5 as referendum on bailout, Bloomberg says
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18:18 EDTGreek PM Tsipras sets July 5 as referendum on bailout, Bloomberg says
16:40 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 12:00
16:40 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 11:30
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16:40 EDT Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George Speech to be released at 12:30
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16:40 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 05:45
16:05 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:05 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated yields are closing just off of 2015 highs
Treasury Action: longer dated yields are closing just off of 2015 highs. Europe set the bearish tone for the day as safe haven flows were unwound as investors look to the potential that a resolution will be reached ahead of this weekend's Greek ultimatum. Bund yields finished over 6 bps higher at 0.92% and the Treasury 10-year is following suit with the rate up 6.5 bps to test 2.48%. The selloff wasn't deterred by a still tight repo market where the Bund traded around -0.24%, while the 5-year Treasury was at -0.14%, with the 10-year at 0.11%. Technicals are weighing and argue for further selling as rates hold above key levels. Forecasts for a healthy gain in nonfarm payrolls are keeping bears on track too. On the other hand, month- and quarter-end flows (Barclays' Treasury index extends out 0.10 years), along with an expected rebound in mutual fund and foreign buying are, expected to cap the upside, especially in the shortened trading week.
14:13 EDTAverages mixed in lackluster session
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13:45 EDTU.S. Week Ahead: fireworks on a shortened July 4th week
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12:55 EDTKC Fed hawk George didn't comment on policy
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their surge
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rebounded to 96.1 in the final June report
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The USD is lower despite the upward revision
FX Action: The USD is lower despite the upward revision to sentiment data, with the final June consumer sentiment revised to 96.1 from 94.6. USD-JPY ebbed to the 123.80 area from 123.90-pllus levels, while EUR-USD ticked up to the 1.1190-95 region. The dollar's decline is a correction of an earlier run higher.
10:15 EDTThe June Michigan sentiment bounce
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10:00 EDTFX Action: The USD has rallied
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09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The second release on June Michigan Sentiment should be revised up to 95.0 (median 94.6) from 94.6 in the first release and 90.7 in May. The report has displayed a consistent, though diminishing, tendency toward upward revisions over the past year.
09:44 EDTMarket opens quietly ahead of critical weekend for Greece
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish put selling
Treasury Option Action: some bullish put selling was reported, involving the sale of August 123.00 puts on the 10-year, against the grain of the sharp sell-off with Bunds on Greek deal breakthrough hopes. September 10s are 18.5-ticks lower near 125-00, compared to a 125-20 to 124-31 range.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: stort term bill rates remain very expensive
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are under pressure
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09:00 EDTMixed U.S. inflation readings complicate the Fed's confidence hurdle:
Mixed U.S. inflation readings complicate the Fed's confidence hurdle: WSJ's Hilsenrath revisits (subscription) the Fed's "reasonably confident" threshold for inflation rise, warning that the Fed favored PCE measure is decelerating, even as core CPI creeps up. He points out that "divergence is building between prices measured in the PCE index and those measured in the consumer price index produced by the Labor Department. While core PCE prices have slowed, core CPI prices were up 1.7% in May from a year earlier and they have been rising at around that pace since last August. This divergence is due in part to the different weightings the two indexes place on various sectors. The CPI index places heavy weight on home rental and ownership costs, which are firming. The PCE index places heavy weight on health care costs which have been restrained." Though Yellen has stated that she doesn't need to see a big jump in core inflation before lift-off, oil prices and the firm dollar have made her job tougher.
08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Kansas City Fed hawk George
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled in the mid-1.23s
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08:10 EDTU.S. equities clung to a modest rebound
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08:09 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 26 at 11 am.
08:06 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up early on a Handelsblatt article
Treasury Action: yields backed up early on a Handelsblatt article that Greek creditors offered 15.5 B euros over the next 5-months in a temporary aid package. The T-note yield had been loitering around 2.40%, but has since probed the 2.43% area as Bunds backed up to 0.87%. In Asia, Chinese equities were under intense selling pressure off some 7-9% across exchanges, while Europe has been comparatively orderly and U.S. futures slightly firmer.
07:08 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
Renewables & Utilities Conference is being held in London, England on June 26.
07:06 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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06:58 EDTFutures suggest quiet open
Stock futures are trading right around fair value. There has been no agreement made on the Greek debt situation, with Eurozone leaders scheduled to meet again tomorrow. The lone report on the domestic calendar is the final reading for June on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. With Greece on hold and the domestic economic calendar quiet, the market may be setting up for a typical slow trading day during the summer.
06:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has firmed to near 123.50
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 26
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05:57 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
04:04 EDTWeek of 6/29 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:02 EDTWeek of 7/8 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has continued to trade in a narrow range
FX Update: EUR-USD has continued to trade in a narrow range, slightly south of 1.1200 during most of the pre-Europe session in Asia. The unresolved Greece situation is deterring activity after hopes for a breakthrough were once again scuttled. Germany's Merkel said that Saturday's Eurogroup meeting will be decisive. EUR-USD resistance is at 1.1234 (Wednesday's peak) and 1.1230 (the 20-day moving average). Supports are at 1.1150-55 and 1.1134-35. Elsewhere, the yen has outperformed as the currency rediscovers its inverse correlation with stock markets, which headed south in Asia, led by steep declines in China. USD-JPY logged a four-day low of 123.22, since settling around 123.42. EUR-JPY also traded heavily, though managed to remain above yesterday's three-week low at 137.66. AUD-JPY posted a one-week low. Japanese May CPI came in at 0.5% y/y, as expected and down from 0.6%, while the June Tokyo measure ebbed to 0.3% y/y from 0.5%. Other data were mixed, with income and PCE firm,, but production falling 0.5% m/m in May. The NZD came under pressure after the RBBZ said the currency was trading at "unjustifiable" levels.
June 25, 2015
16:37 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:37 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
Week of 6/24 Fed Balance Sheet Level at $4.495T
16:24 EDTWeek of 7/3 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:24 EDTWeek of 7/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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16:24 EDTWeek of 7/4 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain slightly weaker
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased from highs
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12:45 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview:
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12:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar has seen limited direction today
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11:50 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow was raised to 2.1%
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow was raised to 2.1% up from 2.0% on Tuesday, following final Q1 GDP yesterday and personal income today. That continues to close the gap with the consensus of Blue Chip Economists near 2.7%. As the report notes, "The nowcast for second-quarter real consumption growth ticked up from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent following yesterday's GDP release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and this morning's personal income and outlays release from the same agency."
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are in the red
Euro$ interest rate futures are in the red attempting to keep up with the swings on bonds and bunds as the Greek deal continues to get batted back and forth. Firmer personal income and spending, along with tame jobless claims are keeping a September Fed hike on the docket, while 7-year supply also looms. WSJ Fedswatcher Hilsenrath also is hyping the June jobs, FOMC minutes and Yellen semi-annual testimony in early July as likely markers for a subsequent rate hike. The December 2015 contract is 1-ticks lower near 99.435, implying a 0.57% 3-month rate compared to 0.55% late Wednesday after the equity slump, while the deferreds are up to 7-ticks lower out the back-end.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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11:11 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
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10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning in the belly
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning in the belly involved a sale of 4k in September 120.5 calls vs a purchase of 119.5/120.50 call 1x2s. September 5s are 6.7-ticks lower near 118-247 compared to their 119-002 to 118-235 range on Globex.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending June 19
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10:30 EDTFed Governor Powell discussed payment systems
Fed Governor Powell discussed payment systems and didn't stray into the economy or policy per se, noting that the Fed doesn't have broad authority over the whole financial system to order improvements in payment security. He discussed the breach of the Office of Personnel Management database as one example that the government is working on. See his speech, "Building a Safer Payment System."
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: Merkel says Greek talks seem to be going backward
Treasury Action: Merkel says Greek talks seem to be going backward, in comments to reporters as she arrived for the EU suit. These remarks largely mirror sentiments expressed by German fin min Schauble. The markets remain on edge over Greece. European equities extended modestly further into the red, but are holding off on a full-scale rout as negotiations continue. EUR-USD has also dipped, while Bunds pared losses. Global bonds remain mixed though, wih core rates still slightly elevated while the periphery outperforms.
10:25 EDTU.S. health stocks rallied on the Supreme Court
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields turned choppy below highs
Treasury Action: yields turned choppy below highs following the drop in Markit services flash PMI at the same time the Eurogroup talks were "temporarily-indefinitely" suspended (conflicting headlines) until Greece comes back with another counter proposal, while Greek PM Tsipras subsequently said he's convinced a compromise can be reached. Most see negotiations going well into the weekend, with the real deadline next Tuesday's debt payment deadline. The T-note swung with Bunds, slumping to 2.383% on talks ended headlines before rebounding to 2.41% on more optimistic Tsipras headlines. Likewise, stocks and the dollar are being whipped around. All in a day's work.
10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded softer
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services index fell to 54.8 for the flash June reading
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09:45 EDTMarket opens higher as Greece continues talks
Stock futures were higher during the pre-market trading session, but finished off their best levels. The strength comes as talks continue between Greece and its creditors as a debt deadline quickly approaches. There will be little else for investors to follow today, as the main domestic economic reports have already been released. Markit's service PMI for June and the weekly natural gas inventory report remain to be released. In early trading, the Dow is up 2 points, the Nasdaq is up 7 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
09:30 EDTFireworks watch in early July for Fed:
Fireworks watch in early July for Fed: WSJ's Hilsenrath in his Grand Central blog (subscription) thinks the Fed could signal a September hike based on events early in July: "Fed watchers can mark their calendars with the following dates: July 2, July 8 and July 15. During that span of 13 days next month, the Labor Department will release its next jobs report (Thursday due to July 4th), minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting will be released and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will begin two days of testimony presenting the central bank's semiannual report to Congress. The sequence of events could provide the makings for important disclosures on the central banking beat." A 200k June jobs gain and jobless dip, FOMC minutes and semi-annual Yellen testimony could take the spotlight since she won't be attending the annual Wyoming Fed retreat in August that has in the past been used as a signaling event.
09:20 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook:
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09:20 EDTThe U.S. income report revealed upside surprises
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities have rebounded
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
Treasury Action: yields remained elevated after the firm income/spending readings and still-low jobless claims, which fit with the better underlying picture of the economy. The T-note yield nudged back over 2.40%, up from 2.37% lows in Asia, though stocks are below overnight highs. The 2s-10s spread is holding near +170 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.5% with spending up 0.9% in May
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08:45 EDTThe 3k U.S. initial claims bounce to 271k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the mix of data, where jobless claims and income were in line with consensus, and consumption rose above forecasts. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1190 from 1.1210, as USD-JPY approached 123.75 from near 123.60. Equity futures maintained gains, as Treasury yields stayed firm.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 3k to 271k in the week ended June 20
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08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following early economic data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the weekly jobless claims data and personal income and spending reports. Initial jobless claims were 271,000, versus expectations for 273,00 first-time claims, while continuing claims were 2.24M, versus a forecast of 2.21M. Personal income rose 0.5% in May, matching the consensus expectation, while spending rose 0.9%, versus the expected 0.7% increase.
08:35 EDTFed's Tarullo stuck to the topic of regulation in early remarks
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08:31 EDTBarclays analyst research team holds an analyst/industry conference call
Barclaycard Commercial Head of Product Development Richard Silvey discusses an overview of the virtual card product, the current state of the commercial payments market, the potential opportunity for the players in the ecosystem on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 25 at 11 am.
08:25 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:25 EDTFedspeak resumes with Fed Governor Tarullo
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08:15 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady
Energy Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady overnight, managing $60.43 highs, and a low of $59.86. Increased refined product demand in the U.S. and Europe in particular, has been supportive of crude prices most recently, though over supply, and reports of unsold cargoes of Brent and Nigerian crude have been offsetting factors. RBOB gasoline futures have settled in near $2.055/gallon, coming off of near $2.11 highs following a surprise build in inventories, reported on Wednesday. Natural gas futures are on one-week highs of $2.78/M BTU, ahead of EIA inventory data, which is expected to reveal a small stock build.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly lower in light trading
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: After overnight gyrations, EUR-USD is about where N.Y. traders left in on Wednesday, moving on either side of 1.1200. Greece negotiations have failed to come up with an agreement, leaving markets in limbo once again. Elsewhere, USD-JPY plied a narrow range with 123.50 as the fulcrum, while USD-CAD was steady over 1.2375 on steady oil prices. The U.S. calendar reveals May personal income, PCE and weekly jobless claims, all at 8:30 EDT.
07:47 EDTCouncil on Foreign Relations to hold a discussion on the economy
The C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics holds a discussion entitled, "Conversation on the Economy and Financial Regulation with Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel K. Tarullo on June 25 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:36 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on National Security and International Trade and Finance holds a hearing entitled, "Economic Crisis: The Global Impact of a Greek Default" on June 25 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:27 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
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07:26 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:19 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
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07:15 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
Private Debt Investment Summit is being held in New York on June 25.
07:15 EDTNomura to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTNomura to hold a conference
HK/China Consumer Corporate Day is being held in Hong Kong on June 25.
07:13 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTRBC Capital to hold a symposium
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07:10 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:07 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
2015 Private Company Growth 1:1 Conference is being held in Boston on June 25.
07:06 EDTNational Business Aviation Association to hold a forum
2015 NBAA Regional Forum is being held in Teterboro, New Jersey on June 25.
06:57 EDTFutures higher despite lack of Greek deal
Stock futures are sharply higher despite headlines indicating that the overnight talks between Greek and euro zone officials failed to end with an agreement ahead of further talks planned for today. U.S. investors will be watching the weekly jobless claims data, personal income and spending reports and the weekly natural gas storage change update for clues on the domestic economy.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The euro perversely rallied on news of a Greece no-deal
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 25
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05:51 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The yen has traded higher
FX Update: The yen has traded higher amid a backdrop of risk aversion, with the currency rediscovering its inverse correlation with stock markets. USD-JPY fell to a two-day low of 123.55 while EUR-JPY dipped to a low of 138.41. EUR-USD, meanwhile, oscillated around 1.1200, lacking downside impetus despite the stalemate in Greek negotiations with creditors. There was little fresh news leads of note in Asia. China's PBOC injected cash in an open market operation for the first time since April. Australian job vacancies rose 2.1% q/q in the three months to May, up from 1.4% last. This helped AUD-USD, which lifted to the mid-0.77s, and AUD-JPY also ground out a moderate gain, though both the pair and the cross remained within the respective ranges seen yesterday.
02:01 EDT FOMC Minutes to be released at 14:00
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02:01 EDTWeek of 7/3 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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June 24, 2015
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:03 EDTMarket at session lows in afternoon trading
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13:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 124.37 highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: 5-year yields backed up sharply
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12:55 EDTInvestor Carl Icahn Tweeted that the market is "extremely overheated"
Investor Carl Icahn Tweeted that the market is "extremely overheated" especially high yield bonds and "if more respected investors had warned about the market in '07, analysts might have avoided the crisis in '08." He also sold the last of his Netflix holdings today and believes that "Apple currently represents same opportunity analysts stated Netflix offered several years ago." He stick speaks highly of Netflix management, however. It is possible that these high profile Tweets and follow-up interview on CNBC are adding to the weakness on stocks today as he personally sees risk of a "dramatic pullback" and has issues with fudged GAP accounting results and elevated earnings ratios, which Apple does not. He has not trimmed Apple holdings and in some sense is talking against his own book, given $billions in stock holdings, and if other sectors go down further like in the energy sector he would be a buyer.
12:45 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction outlook: the auction should be well received.
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12:40 EDTU.S. 5-year technicals: sitting right on the 50% retrace level
U.S. 5-year technicals: sitting right on the 50% retrace level of 1.694% drawn from the 1.811% June 11 high and 1.564% June 19 low, the 5-year yield is stuck mid-range for June while awaiting the results of the $35 B auction. The back-up in yield this week could prove attractive for foreign indirect demand as Greece resumes its spat with creditors, but a potential deal breakthrough and proximity of the first Fed rate move in 7-years could keep a floor under the yield. Near-term yield supports are the 1.587% trendline and 1.564% June lows, while resistance is marked by 1.75% psych and 1.811% June highs.
11:59 EDTWeek of 7/3 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was on the soft side
Treasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was on the soft side. The issue was awarded at a high discount margin of 0.076%, 13 bps above the 0.069% at the May sale. Bids totaled $48.6 B for a 3.74 cover, versus 4.01 in May and 3.81 for the $15 B new issue in April. Indirect bidding was strong, however at 56.4% compared to 49.2% previously and 62.7% in April.
11:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to highs
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11:10 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction outlook: the auction is expected to benefit
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11:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is up
FX Action: USD-CAD is up at levels last seen on June 9, peaking at 1.2412, and up from 1.22278 overnight lows. Buying picked up steam on the move over 1.2340-45, which were the earlier tops, and again over 1.2360, the 20-day moving average, and 1.2380, which was Tuesday's high water mark. The June 9 high of 1.2441 is the next upside chart target. CAD losses have come despite the firmer oil price backdrop, as the greenback overall trades on a stronger footing this morning.
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of June 19
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10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in very quiet trade
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09:55 EDTFed VC Fischer discussed supervisory stress testing
Fed VC Fischer discussed supervisory stress testing of large systemic financial institutions at a Stockholm conference on bank regulation, but did not stray into policy or the economy per se. For details, see his speech.
09:34 EDTGreek concerns lead to lower open
Stock futures moved lower during the pre-market trading session when reports surfaced that creditors had rejected Greece’s latest proposal to deal with its financial problems. The market’s rally over the last two day was largely attributed to progress that had been made in putting together a potential deal for Greece with its debt repayment deadline fast approaching. The early U.S. economic reports included the final reading on first quarter GDP, which was bumped up, as expected, but still reflects a small contraction in the first three months of the year. The lone economic data remaining is the weekly energy inventory report, due out at 10:30 am EDT. In early trading, the Dow is down 67 points, the Nasdaq is down 9 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:15 EDTU.S. probe of the $12.7 tln Treasury market
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09:00 EDTThe U.S. Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.2%
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:45 EDTU.S. Q1 GDP was revised up to a 0.2% contraction rate
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar showed little reaction
FX Action: The dollar showed little reaction to the as-expected GDP revision, and remains near 1.1200 versus the euro, as USD-JPY eased a few points to 123.85. Equity futures continue to indicate a modest downdraft at the Wall Street open, while Treasury yields are little changed.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped following the GDP revision
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08:43 EDTCorporate Profits After-tax data reported
Corporate Profits After-tax up 9.0% for the year
08:37 EDTFutures show little reaction to GDP data
Stock futures remain lower following the release of the final estimate of first quarter GDP and personal consumption growth. GDP contracted in the first quarter by 0.2%, matching the consensus forecast, while personal consumption rose 2.1%, versus expectations for 1.9% growth in consumption.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $61.00/bbl
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08:20 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:14 EDTThe Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control holds a hearing
The Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control holds a hearing entitled, "Cannabidiol: Barriers to Research and Potential Medical Benefits" on June 24 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:34 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:31 EDTHouse Committee on Science, Space & Technology to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly higher as optimism on a Greek deal lessened on comments from PM Tsipras who said creditors rejected the latest proposals. The German Bund yield is down over 3 bps to 0.83% to lead the modest rally in core bonds, with the 10-year Treasury of 2 bps to 2.39%. European and U.S. stocks are modestly lower as the markets are back in wait-and-see mode. Meanwhile, a much weaker than expected German Ifo reading and disappointing U,K. mortgage approvals data also underpinned bonds. The U.S. calendar is light with just revised Q1 GDP due. The MBA reported mortgage applications rebounded 1.6% in the week ended June 19. Supply will also remain significant ahead of quarter end with a $35 B 5-year and a $13 B 2-year FRN on tap.
07:22 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTMorningstar to hold a conference
27th Annual Investment Conference is being held in Chicago on June 24-26.
07:13 EDTNational Investing Banking Association to hold a conference
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum
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06:58 EDTFutures fall ahead of euro summit meeting
U.S. equity futures are lower in early trading despite an optimistic tone that has been evident in media reports ahead of the two day emergency euro finance meeting, which will try and finalize an agreement for Greece and its bailout. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the first quarter GDP report, the personal consumption reading and the weekly energy inventory data.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum
FX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum, taking a knock in the latest phase after Greek PM disclosed that creditors haven't accepted Greece's latest proposals. EUR-USD dipped back below 1.1200, leaving the day's peak at 1.1235, though the pair remained above the low seen in Asia at 1.1154. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses saw similar price actions. A much weaker than expected German Ifo business confidence reading, which fell to 107.4 from 108.5 and below the median for 108.1, had little impact at the time of release, though retrospectively adds to the more bearish tone of the euro. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a 123.71-124.03 range, below yesterday's one-week high at 124.18. The BoJ minutes from the May policy meeting had little impact.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 24
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05:52 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar is trading moderately weaker
FX Update: The dollar is trading moderately weaker after yesterday's across-the-board gains came to pause. EUR-USD remains at the fulcrum given the prevailing focus on Greece and Fed policy. The pair hit a 16-day low at 1.1334 yesterday and has since settled higher, around 1.1200, still well off yesterday's high at 1.1347. Markets are likely to be cautious today. An agreement between Greece and its creditors needs to be reached in time for Finance Ministers to sign off at the Eurogroup meeting this evening, ahead of tomorrow's EU summit. The deal would then need to be passed by both the Greek and German parliaments. The June German Ifo business sentiment will also be of interest today, with risk seen to the upside in light of the strong German PMI last week. Regarding the Fed, September still seems the best guess for rate lift-off, though it's still not a done deal as indicated by Governor Powell's 50-50 outlook yesterday. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a narrow range in Tokyo, near 124.00 but remaining below yesterday's one-week high at 124.18. The BoJ minutes from the May policy meeting had little impact.
02:04 EDTJune Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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June 23, 2015
17:35 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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16:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:09 EDTWeek of 7/4 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow was revised up to 2.0% for Q2
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14:15 EDTU.S. equities are finding some support from lows
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is sitting right on top of its 20-day moving average
FX Action: USD-JPY is sitting right on top of its 20-day moving average of 123.84, after failing to hold the 124 handle earlier. The pairing put in a base at 123.65 before recovering, though with risk taking levels easier and yields off their highs, a revisit of 124 does not look to be in the cards near term. In the meantime, a N.Y. close over the 20-dma might give technically inclined dollar bulls some cover.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied above lows
Treasury Action: short yields steadied above lows following the mixed 2-year auction results, with the current 2-year yield consolidating above 0.67% compared to the 0.692% award rate on the new notes and a range of 0.661-0.686% ahead of the sale. Near-term yield resistance is marked by 0.6935%, with 0.766% above and support from 0.662-0.660% and 0. 609% below.
13:10 EDTTreasury' 2-year auction was well received.
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12:45 EDTTreasury 2-year preview: the auction should be well supported
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12:40 EDTU.S. 2-year technicals: the 2-year yield has pulled back
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12:05 EDTTreasury's bill sales were strong
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11:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are underwater
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10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen from two-week highs
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10:40 EDTThe 2.2% U.S. new home sales climb to a 546k new cycle-high
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly bullish positioning
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating below highs
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to 6 in June
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
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10:00 EDTU.S. equities opened marginally firmer
U.S. equities opened marginally firmer after a number of cross-currents swept across the markets in earlier trade. Among them were the headline drop in durables, followed by relatively hawkish Fed Powell remarks and a rebound in yields and the dollar. Those created some headwinds for stocks, though european markets remained bullish, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up around 1%, while Athens is another 4.5% higher on hopes that a Greek deal will be cemented this week. Volatility was the word in China after margin requirements were boosted, followed by a plunge and rebound in stocks there that left the Shenzhen 3.2% higher and the Shanghai Comp up 2.1%, with Japan's N-225 1.7% firmer on the weak yen. Up next are new home sales and the Richmond Fed index.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slid tp 53.4 in June
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09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: May new home sales should reveal a 1.0% decline to a 512k (median 520k) unit pace for the month following the 6.8% bounce to a 517k pace in April. Despite Monday's firm existing home sales figures which had the headline pace up 5.1% there is still downside risk from the NAHB decline to 54 in May and the fall in housing starts to 1,036k from 1,165k in April.
09:30 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 221.67 in April
U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 221.67 in April after the same sized rise to 221.06 in May (revised from 221.0). Home prices are up 5.3% y/y.
09:10 EDTMore from Fed's Powell: gradual rate hikes are being built in
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09:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar is on intra day highs
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09:03 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
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09:01 EDTGlobal X Funds July volatility elevated on wide price movement
Global X Funds July call option implied volatility is at 90, September is at 77, December at 65; compared to its 52-week range of 31 to 110, suggesting large near term price movement.
09:00 EDTPeterson Institute for International Economics to hold a discussion
The Peterson Institute holds a discussion of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) groundbreaking study, "Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets" with IMF Deputy Director Ratna Sahay in Washington, D.C. on June 23 at 12:15 pm. Webcast Link
09:00 EDTFed could misfire again on its unemployment projections:
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09:00 EDTToday's disappointing U.S. durable goods figures
Today's disappointing U.S. durable goods figures lowered growth prospects, and analysts trimmed our estimated clip for real equipment spending in the Q2 GDP report to 2.6% from 3.6% after a similar 2.7% pace in Q1. Analysts left our headline GDP estimate at 2.8%. Analysts expect a $35 B Q2 inventory subtraction after a revised $17.0 (was $15.0) B Q! inventory addition. Even with the Q2 inventory drop analysts expect a fairly high $62 B Q2 inventory accumulation rate. Analysts still assume a Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.4% from -0.7%, which incorporates upward revisions of $1 B for factory inventories, $1 B for wholesale inventories, $8 B for private and public construction, and $4 B for net exports. Analysts expect a flat May factory inventory rise with a 0.1% total inventory increase, given today's 0.2% factory durable inventory decline. Analysts assume a 0.5% May factory orders drop with a 0.4% factory shipments increase, given an assumed 0.8% price-led nondurable shipments and orders rise. Analysts saw a 0.1% May durable shipments drop that slightly undershot the flat factory hours-worked figure and the 0.2% durable goods manufacturing rise in the last industrial production report.
08:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 08:45
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08:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 08:00
08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTFed governor Powell sees 50-50 odds of September hike
Fed governor Powell sees 50-50 odds of September hike and expects the economy to grow more strongly in the second half after being weighed by the strong dollar, which dented exports and growth. He still wants to see job growth that continued to reduce slack and further tightening of the economy is needed for inflation to rise after being dented by oil prices and the dollar. He believes tests could be satisfied for a rate hike as soon as September. His relatively hawkish outlook appears to have boosted yields once again after their earlier dip on weak headline durables.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved a touch to the softer side
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08:33 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06 into the N.Y. open, after ranging between $59.84 and $60.50 overnight. Improving European data has helped the demand outlook for oil, though this morning's firmer dollar, and the beginnings of what could be a U.S. gasoline glut have offset. RBOB gasoline futures have fallen nearly 8% over the past week, from nearly eight-month highs over $2.1850, to this morning's lows of $2.0140. Natural gas is slightly higher, trading at $2.76/M BTU, but still close to two-week lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:05 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 1.6% in the week ended June 20
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08:01 EDTSenate Environmental Committee to hold a hearing
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08:00 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
Meredith Jones, MJ Alternative Investment Research, discusses her book, "Women of the Street: Why Female Money Managers Generate Higher Returns (And How You Can Too) in a meeting being held in Chicago on June 23 at 12:30 pm.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD is down eyeing the 1.1200 level as N.Y. trade gets underway, off nearly 150 points from Monday's close. Better EU PMI data and prospects for a Greek deal this week have done the euro no favors, perhaps as regional yields have moved lower, on unwinding of safe-haven plays. Elsewhere, USD-JPY has maintained a narrow range, though at slightly higher levels, as USD-CAD idles near 1.2350. The U.S. calendar reveals the May durables report at 8:30 EDT, June Markit flash PMI at 9:45 EDT, and May new home sales and the June Richmond Fed index, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:49 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Measuring the True Cost of Regulations: Lessons from Great Britain and Canada on Implementing Regulatory Reforms" on June 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:48 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
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07:37 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The euro underperformed
FX Update: The euro underperformed as Eurozone yields dropped, and despite above-forecast Euroznoe PMI data and a growing likelihood of Greece resolution with its creditors. EUR-USD clocked a fresh six-day low at 1.1224 and the euro also posted new lows against the yen, sterling and Aussie dollar, among other currencies. European stocks gained sharply, with Greece's ASE leading the way with over a 4% gain, and Eurozone peripheral yield spreads relative to Bunds narrowed sharply. The Greek 10-year yield fell to 10.61%, extending a sharp drop from 12.5%-plus levels that were seen last week.
07:01 EDTFutures higher as market looks to extend rally
Stock futures are suggesting a positive open as the market looks to extend its gains from yesterday. Investors remain watchful on the Greek debt situation as the country was given 48 hours to reach a deal, potentially ending a five month standoff over aid that risks splitting the euro. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the durable goods report, house price index, and new home sales report for clues on our own economy.
06:07 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 23
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06:01 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is up across the board
FX Update: The dollar is up across the board after a EUR-USD led move with good news on the Greek front transferring as a sell-on-the-fact style response in Asia, although a deal there is no deal yet. EUR-USD dove to a six-day low of 1.1254 after closing in New York yesterday at 1.1338-40. Stops were triggered through 1.1300-10. EUR-JPY is also fell, though the low-so-far is a few pips above yesterday's 139.22 low. USD-JPY, meanwhile, lifted to six-day highs above 123.75, near its 20-day moving average at 123.80. AUD-USD hit a six-day low at 0.7694, finding some support following a firmer than expected flash Markit PMI out of China. The dollar also advanced against sterling and most other currencies. Focus today will remain on Greece, and incoming PMI data out of Europe and the U.S.
June 22, 2015
16:56 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:56 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Greek deal optimism was fanned following a last-minute submission of a partial reforms list to the Eurogroup meeting by the Tsipras government, which sent European equities ramping higher, driving global bond yields higher. Bund yields gapped higher and kept on rising though analysts've heard this song before, but this set the tone early, contributing to a round of curve steepening. The move was compounded on the margin by a 5.1% jump in existing home sales.
15:03 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
14:55 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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14:50 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: May durable goods data is out on Tuesday and should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders following a 1.0% drop in April. Shipments are seen rising by 0.5% with inventories up by 0.2% following respective April figures of -0.2% and 0.2%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 for a third month. There is downside risk to the report from the decline in Boeing orders to 11 from 37 in April and the weak industrial production figures which fell by 0.2% in May.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: supply kicks off Tuesday with the $26 B 2-year auction
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day
Treasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day, catching up to the weakness in Bunds on increased demand for risk, reflected by the 3.8% surge in the DAX. Longer dated Treasury yields are nearing 11 bp gains, with the 10-year hitting 2.36% (seen as nearby support). Selling strength has been the general strategy for over a month and it continues today as the bond market prices for a rate hike in September. Also, curve steepeners seem to be the immediate play. The 2s-10s is out 7 bps from Friday to 170 bps. The 5s-30s is only 2 bps wider, however, at 149 bps. Some are pricing for an upside surprise to inflation, with a potential delay from a Fed rate hike this fall also being considered.
13:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD reportedly tripped stops
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady
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12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are back on the defensive
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11:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it could be a fairly active calendar
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was mixed
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was mixed as the shorter tranche underperformed, perhaps amid the optimism over Greece and the unwinding of flight to quality trades. The 3-month tailed to 0.010% versus 0.005% at the bid deadline, but is the same as last week's rate. There were almost $98.5 B in bids for a 4.16 cover versus last week's solid 4.57, and the 4.31 average. Indirect bidders took 21.2% compared to 15.7% previously and a 22.6% average. The 6-month bill stopped on the screws at 0.080% and is a little richer than last week's 0.100%. There were $101.6 B in bids for a 4.29 cover, above last week's 4.19 but in line with 4.29 average. Indirect bidders accepted 44.7%, almost double the 25.5% previously and a little better than the 42.6% average.
11:35 EDTU.S. equities sustained their bid
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:11 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:45 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Tilting Up in June:
U.S. Producer Sentiment Tilting Up in June: The early-June producer sentiment surveys show signs of an upturn, following the big downswing since November that coincided with a sharp drop in industrial production and GDP growth. Though the Empire State headline fell in June the components were mixed, and analysts saw big headline and component gains for the Philly Fed. Analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys to rise to a still-lean 52 from 51 over the prior two months, and a 2-year low of 50 in March.
10:35 EDTThe 5.1% May U.S. existing home sales bounce to a 5.35 M pace
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10:30 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed early activity
Treasury Option Action: mixed early activity in relatively quiet conditions saw a couple "decent size flows" on 10-year options. These included a purchase of 10k in July 125.5/125 put spreads, thought to be a liquidation (20k bought with Sep 10s near 126-15 Friday), and bullish sale of 2.5k in July 125 puts. There was also a bearish purchase of 8k in week 1 125/124+ put spreads, a bearish sale of 2k in July 126.5 calls and bullish buyer of 1.5k in August 126.5/128 call spreads. September 10s are 22.5-ticks lower near 126-185 compared to their 126-155 to 125-275 range.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed session highs
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The
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10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on North American session highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. May existing home sales rebounded 5.1% to 5.350 M
U.S. May existing home sales rebounded 5.1% to 5.350 M from a revised 2.3% drop in April to 5.090 M (revised from 5.040 M) and the 6.5% surge in March to 5.210 M. This is the strongest since November 2009 when the home-buyer tax credits were expiring. Single family sales climbed 5.6% following the 2.6% decline previously (revised from -3.7%), while condo/coop sales were up 1.6% from unchanged. The months' supply dipped to 5.1 from 5.2 (revised from 5.3). The median sales price rose to $228,700 from $218,700 (revised from $219,400). That's up 7.9% y/y.
10:06 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
May Existing Home Sales at 5.35M vs. consensus of 5.250M
09:45 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: and yields reversed higher once again
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: supply features this week
Treasury Action: supply features this week and the unwinding of safe haven flows has helped build in a concession for the offerings. Treasury is selling $90 B in short and intermediate notes this week, starting with $26 B in 2s (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B 7s (Thursday). When issued yields are higher by several basis points, and the cheapening should help underpin at the margin. However, the uncertainty over Greece and the on-again, off-again flight to quality trades may limit demand The wi 2-year is up 2 bps to 0.675%n which would be the highest of the year, but it solid bidding may be lacking given expectations for a September rate hike. The 5-year is 4 bps higher at 1.64%, while the 7-year is 4.5 bps higher at 2.050%. These also would be year-to-date highs, and their longer maturities might be a little more attractive given the more shallow rate hike trajectory from the Fed's dots.
09:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower led by Bunds
Treasury Action: yields reversed lower led by Bunds, which caught a bid as the Eurogroup meeting ended prematurely amid talk that the ECB will need to pad Greece's ELA by 2.5 B euros after three days of drains over the weekend. The assumption is that surprisingly early end to the meeting and its short duration will suggest "no deal" Greece at this stage, though sources say meetings will resume later in the week. The Bund yield sank from highs near 0.870% to 0.81% and the T-note fell from 2.338% to 2.29%. Some are expressing doubts that the meeting of EU leaders tonight will take place, though there's no evidence to the contrary.
08:45 EDTFedspeak resumes Tuesday with Fed Governor Powell
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08:44 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index 3 Month Moving Average data reported
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3 Month Moving Average at -0.16
08:41 EDTFutures suggest sharply higher open for stocks
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index inched up to -0.17 in May
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08:38 EDTStephens rail/rail equipment analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Rick Webb, CEO of Watco Companies, discuss the current trends within the rail and rail equipment industries on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 29 at 10:30 am.
08:36 EDTDA Davidson food and beverage analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:33 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level data reported
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level at -0.17
08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied from overnight lows
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08:10 EDTU.S. equities were bolstered by Greek hopes
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up versus the euro, despite some hope emerging on the Greece front this morning, currently under 1.1340, after peaking over 1.1400. Cable has retreated from highs over 1.5900, as USD-JPY reclaimed the 123 handle. USD-CAD has bucked the trend, falling into 1.2250 as oil prices rebound over $60/bbl. The U.S. calendar is light, with the June Chicago Fed index due at 8:30 EDT, and May existing home sales at 10:00 EDT. Focus will remain on Greek headlines, where the framework for a deal may be in the cards.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: hopes for a Greek deal (again?) are weighing
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07:17 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a meeting
Washington Association of Money Managers holds a discussion entitled, "China: Stagnation, Market Bubble or Great Opportunity" with Derek Scissors, PH.D., American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. on June 22 at 6 pm.
07:17 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Mexico Opportunities Conference is being held in Mexico City on June 22-25.
07:16 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:15 EDTDocker to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTCLSA to hold a tour
Asia Tech Tour travels throughout Seoul, Shenzhen and Taiwan on June 22-26.
07:05 EDTFutures higher on new Greek debt proposals
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06:58 EDTGlobal X Funds July volatility elevated 100
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06:12 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 22
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05:54 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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05:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered above 123.00
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03:05 EDTFX Update: .The euro is trading firmer
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June 20, 2015
15:41 EDTRBC Capital internet analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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June 19, 2015
18:45 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
June Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 94.6
18:45 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:45 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
May Personal Income and Outlays will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
18:45 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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18:45 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
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18:45 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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18:45 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
May New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 525K
18:45 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:45 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
May Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
18:45 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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18:45 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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18:45 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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15:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields are closing at their lows
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15:34 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated into Greek government credit uncertainty
Global X Funds July call option implied volatility is at 101, September is at 77, December at 68; compared to its 52-week range of 31 to 110 -day range, suggesting large price movement.
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasuries finished out the week on a firmer footing Friday as the residual good will from the flatter Fed "dot plot" midweek spilled over and the stock market remained leery about a liquidity crisis in Greece into Monday even after another top-up of the ECB ELA. Data was absent today, but SF Fed dove Williams gave a pretty detailed update of his policy views. While he wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to target, he also didn't rule out a couple of rate hikes before year-end, nor did Cleveland Fed hawk Mester.
14:30 EDTFed's Mester sees a gradual rate path
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14:18 EDTAverages remain in red in lackluster afternoon trading
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13:55 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:50 EDTNY Fed will launch a "Monthly Snapshot" of the U.S. Economy
NY Fed will launch a "Monthly Snapshot" of the U.S. Economy on Monday, according to its press release: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will launch US Economy in a Snapshot, a monthly report providing a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy. The US Economy in a Snapshot includes charts and commentary on overall economic activity, the labor market, household conditions, the business sector and various financial market metrics. In addition, the Snapshot can include a “Special Topics” section to cover a range of issues such as the behavior of commodity prices, developments in the Second District or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations." Guess they got tired of the Atlanta Fed having all the fun with GDPNow.
13:35 EDTStill more from Williams: he would want to hike twice this year
Still more from Williams: he would want to hike twice this year if data comes in as expected and he envisions 25 bp increments, as it gets closer to the time to raise rates. Yet there's little cost to await more data to get a clearer picture on inflation, while the baseline forecast for the economy has not changed, amid some near-term uncertainty. Williams sees the normal Fed funds rate at 3.5-4.0% and should avoid telegraphing rate hike decisions in advance. That seems to dovetail with the lower dots, while his last statement is a bit curious given the lengths Yellen has gone to in order to eliminate policy surprises and rattle the markets after the taper tantrum.
13:20 EDTEnergy Action: Baker-Hughes weekly rig count numbers
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13:10 EDTFedspeak will resume next week with Fed Governor Powell
Fedspeak will resume next week with Fed Governor Powell (Tuesday) taking part in a panel discussion on the "Monetary Policy Outlook and the Economy" at a WSJ breakfast from 8:30 ET. Fed Governor Tarullo also takes part in a panel (Thursday) on a "Conversation on the Economy and Financial Regulation" from 8 ET. Powell jumps back in on "Building a Safer Payment System" at a Kansas City Fed conference from 8:45 ET. KC Fed hawk George (Friday) will speak at the same conference on the "The Payments System".
12:25 EDTMore from Williams: most of the decline in the labor force participation
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12:05 EDTSF Fed dove Williams is still in "wait and see" mode
SF Fed dove Williams is still in "wait and see" mode on lift-off until he's more confident on inflation moving back to 2%, however he does still believe the FOMC will raise rates this year. The Fed voter reiterates that it's safer to raise rates sooner, then proceed gradually, than to wait too long - his main policy mantra of late. He notes that even once the Fed raises rates that policy will still be accommodative. Meanwhile, he's not convinced that inflation has bottomed, though wage growth signals a nearly-healed labor market and he sees unemployment drifting down to 5.2% by year-end. Williams views slower jobs and GDP growth as not surprising, but in fact desirable. Williams is speaking before an NBER conference and could well be one of those dots on the fence about 1-2 hikes before year-end.
10:39 EDTJefferies energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:29 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:27 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: minor bullish positioning
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10:01 EDTAtlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr data reported
June Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr up 1.9% for the year
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has given back the 123 handle
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09:50 EDTTreasury Action: upcoming supply is no detriment to bond gains
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09:38 EDTMarket opens quietly as Greece inches closer to possible default
Stock futures drifted lower during the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively quiet and mixed open for the broader market. Today marks “quadruple witching,” which is the quarterly event when market index futures, market index options, stock options, and stock futures expire and can results in increased volatility as traders roll out positions. With little of note on the domestic economic calendar, Greek headlines may be the most likely catalysts for market moves ahead of the emergency meeting on the situation planned for Monday. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 1 point and the S&P is down 3 points.
09:25 EDTDeutsche Bank food retail analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped with Bunds on ECB ELA reports
Treasury Action: yields dipped with Bunds on ECB ELA reports which implied that the ECB has indeed topped up Greek bank funding by 3.3-3.7 B euros, depending on the source cited (not officially confirmed yet), though earlier reports suggested that the ECB might hold off until the emergency meeting on Monday. The ECB is more likely to err on the side of caution to avoid a run over the weekend, however, with 1-2 B euros being withdrawn from the Greek banking system per day. In any case, the Bund yield veered toward session lows of 0.75-0.76% amid the confusion before bouncing, while the T-note followed suit to session lows under 2.28%. The Bund/T-note spread is trading near -152 bp.
09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are back on track
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09:07 EDTBofA/Merrill European strategists hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief European Economist Moec, along with European Rates Strategist Salim and European Equity Strategist Barty, discuss what the consequences would be should Greece not pay the IMF (International Monetary Fund), possibly prolonged by a missed payment on July 20 to the ECB (European Central Bank) on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 19 at 10:15 am.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD zigged and zagged
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08:35 EDTEnergy Action: August NYMEX crude is under $60/bbl
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08:15 EDTCanadian Retail Sales Preview
Canadian Retail Sales Preview: Retail sales (8:30 ET) are expected to rise 0.5% in April (median +0.6%), building on the price driven 0.7% gain in March and 1.5% rebound in February. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.3% (median +0.4%) after +0.5% in March. A stall out in gasoline prices restrains the upside for total and ex-autos sales. Nonetheless, the data can remain consistent with the BoC's expectation for growth to recover following the Q1 contraction in GDP.
08:10 EDTFedspeak resumes after the FOMC blackout period
Fedspeak resumes after the FOMC blackout period with SF Fed dovish voter Williams delivering a policy speech before a NBER seminar from 11:40 ET. Note, Williams has generally been more optimistic on growth and near-term rate lift-off of late. Cleveland Fed non-voting hawk Mester will discuss "Community development and the Federal Reserve" from 12:45 ET. She's generally been more concerned about inflation risks and getting behind the curve.
08:05 EDTCanadian CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTECB agrees to raise ELA cap for Greek banks, Reuters reports
Reuters cites a banking source on the report of the ECB agreeing to raised the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher around the world
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher around the world amid ongoing Greek concerns and a tame view on the Fed. Core yields are falling over 3 bps to leave the Bund at 0.76% and the 10-year Treasury at 2.30%. The periphery is outperforming, however, on hopes of a 12th hour deal after an emergency summit was called for Monday, though reportedly to address EU concerns over capital flight. The ECB is holding an emergency conference call today. Meanwhile, global stocks are also in rally mode (excluding China), in part on hope for some deal. In other news, the BoJ maintained its uber-easy policy stance, but altered some of its meeting dynamics as Kurodo pledged more transparency. Fedspeak will be key today given the focus on the FOMC, and because there isn't anything else on the calendar. Fed dove Williams will be speaking on monetary policy at 11:40 ET. He will be followed by Mester who addresses a monertary policy summit at 12:45 ET.
07:50 EDTU.S. equities are in a bullish mood
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07:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmer
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07:15 EDTFederal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Philadelphia & Richmond hold summit
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07:10 EDTFutures suggest another higher open
Stock futures are above fair value in the early going, signaling another positive open for the broader market. The market’s most recent rally has pushed the Nasdaq to new highs and made the market positive for the month of June. The domestic economic calendar will be quiet today, but there are sure to be many headlines about the Greek debt situation.
06:25 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 19
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.92%, DAX up 1.05%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $59.79, natural gas down 2.62%, gold at $1200 an ounce, copper down 3.2%.
05:53 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is today, June 19, 2015
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04:10 EDTJapanese policymakers seem to be talking down the yen
Japanese policymakers seem to be talking down the yen. PM Abe talked about the importance of maintaining expansionary 'Abenomics' policies, and this was complemented by BoJ Governor Kuroda saying that a weaker yen wouldn't be a "big negative" for the economy, although he added that monetary policy is not being aimed at influencing FX rates. Kuroda also said that MoF intervention in currency markets remained a possibility if things got disorderly. Kuroda is perhaps being mindful of trading partners in downplaying his soft currency remark, but actions speak louder than words. A Reuters survey of market analysts this week found a unanimous expectation for the BoJ to ease policy further in Q4 this year.
June 18, 2015
23:17 EDTWeek of 7/1 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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23:17 EDTWeek of 6/22 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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17:11 EDTEurozone to meet for special summit about Greece on Monday, MarketWatch says
Eurozone leaders will meet on Monday for a special emergency summit about Greece on Monday, reports MarketWatch, citing an EU official. Reference Link
16:38 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
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16:33 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 6/8 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$9.3B
16:33 EDTWeek of 6/26 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:33 EDTWeek of 6/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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02:17 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 6/27 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 270K
16:27 EDTECB said to conduct unscheduled call on Greece ELA Friday, Bloomberg says
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain cheaper ahead of next week's supply
Treasury Action: Treasuries remain cheaper ahead of next week's supply. The concessions, the gradualist view on the Fed, and Greek woes bode well for the auctions. The Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes (Tuesday) and the wi trades at 0.685%, a little higher than in May where the auction saw good results. The $35 B 5-year (Wednesday) is bid at 1.665% currently, 10 bps higher than the 1.560% award rate. And the $29 B 7-year (Thursday) trades at 2.085%, up about 20 bps from May's 1.888% stop. There's a lot of data next week that will be important for the outlook, though not crucial, including various housing reports, durable orders, the final revision to Q1 GDP, income, PCE, and Markit PMIs.
14:12 EDTAverages off best levels, still up about 1% in afternoon trade
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14:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: also mixed trade
Euro$ interest rate options: also mixed trade against the rate futures was reported, starting with a block buyer of 20k in December 2016/17 spreads. There was a bearish buyer of 4k in August 2015 puts vs 98/97.75 put spreads, along with a bearish seller of 5k in September 99.625/99.75 call 1x2s. Bulls sold 2.5k in December 2015 99.625/99.50/99.25 put trees and 7k in July 2015 99.50 puts (5k blocked). Front euro$s remain firmer, with December 2015 1.5-ticks higher near 99.43, while the deferreds range from +2-ticks to -4.5 ticks as the curve is prone to steepening today.
14:00 EDTCleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.2% in May
Cleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.2% in May, with the 16% trimmed mean edging up 0.1%. These alternate measures of core CPI compare to the BLS' figure of 0.1%. The Median reading is up 2.2% y/y, unchanged over the last several months, with the trimmed mean slipping to a 1.6% y/y clip versus 1.7% y/y previously, and is down from 1.8% y/y in prior months. The Cleveland Fed President Mester is more or less a centrist with slightly hawkish overtones, and these data shouldn't sway here much in either direction.
13:55 EDTCanadian CPI Preview
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13:50 EDTEuro leaders to hold summit about Greece on Monday, Bloomberg reports
13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched 122.49 lows
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13:17 EDTEurozone talks on Greece end without deal being reached, AFP reports
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening was a non-event
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12:40 EDTU.S. equities are on a rampage
U.S. equities are on a rampage in the wake of the Fed's lower dot-plot trajectory, which seems to have caught fire with investors even as they tire of contradictory headlines on Greece. Germany's Die Zeit is also mongering that Greek aid will be extended out until year-end, which boosted euro. This helped lift European stocks back into the green as well, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing 0.63% higher compared to -0.7% at the NY open even as talk of fresh debt relief offers are circulating on Greece, though Athens closed up 0.37%, below earlier highs. NASDAQ is up over 1.3% after marking all-time highs of 5,139.6, pulling the blue chips about 1% higher. A successful Fitbit IPO probably didn't hurt either, along with the bounce in the Philly Fed, though its price component surge was a bit alarming.
12:24 EDTDie Zeit reporting Greece aid to be extended without IMF, Bloomberg says
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11:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: bearish positioning has mostly been reported in between celebrations by Blackhawk fans in Chicago, with the grain of the sell-off in underlying Treasuries and futures. Among them were sales of July 127.00 calls and purchases of July 125.00 puts. September 10s are 11-ticks lower near 125-265 compared to their 126-18 to 125-245 range vs post-FOMC highs near 126-18.
11:35 EDTCBOE Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 down 1.4% as NASDAQ at record
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD selling picked up
FX Action: USD-CAD selling picked up into the North American open, as stops under 1.2200 were triggered. The move under the 150-day moving average at 1.2182 saw follow through sellers step in, on its way to 1.2129 lows. Corporate bids were reported in place from 1.2120 to 1.2100, and that combined with better Philly Fed and leading indicators data at 10:00 EDT, saw USD-CAD rally back to highs just under 1.2200. Oil prices remain over $60 this morning, which should limit USD-CAD upside for now.
11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:17 EDTDeutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF July puts active
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11:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures remain on a tear
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11:08 EDT St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 00:00
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11:08 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number at 912796GS2
11:08 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:08 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:08 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Offering Amount data reported
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Offering Amount at $13.0 B
11:08 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:08 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:08 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828XH8
11:08 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:08 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:08 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Offering Amount data reported
2-Yr Note Announcement Offering Amount at $26.0 B
10:35 EDTFed should let the economy overheat
Fed should let the economy overheat according to a well-argued report by WSJ reporter Greg Ip (former Fedwatcher), noting that the "rewards of lower unemployment are worth the risks of keeping rates low for longer". His main point is that with slack in the labor market and a low starting point on inflation, this trumps risk that financial inequality and financial market excess grows.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending June 12
Gas inventories 89 Bcf build vs. consensus of 93 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTThe Philly Fed pop to 15.2 in June
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10:20 EDTU.S. leading indicators rose 0.7% to 123.1 in May
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up
FX Action: The dollar perked up after the stronger Philly Fed and leading indicators outcomes. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1390 from 1.1410, as USD-JPY bounced over 122.85 from near 122.70. Wall Street remains near session highs, as yields tick up a bit.
10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed climbed 8.5 points to 15.2 in June
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yield probed session highs
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10:05 EDTThe U.S. current account gap
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10:03 EDTDeutsche Bank integrated oils analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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10:02 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
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10:01 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey General Conditions Index data reported
June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey General Conditions Index at 15.2 vs. consensus of 8.0
10:00 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: June Philly Fed is expected an increase to 7.0 (median 8.0) following May's dip to 6.7. The Empire State Index for the month already posted a drop to -2.0 from 3.1 along side a more restrained ISM-adjusted decline to 51.6 from 51.7. Overall, analysts expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in June with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 for a third month.
10:00 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
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09:41 EDTMarket extends recent gains with higher open
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09:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC post-mortem shows diverging interpretations
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09:28 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a webinar
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09:25 EDTU.S. equity investors are still fired up
U.S. equity investors are still fired up by the prospect of a more gradual rate path as detailed in the Fed projections, obscuring the Greek debt crisis for the moment, which is unlikely to be resolved today. The cooler than expected 0.1454% core CPI reading didn't hurt either in terms of the rate path, though jobless claims dropped again. The Dow is 66-points firmer, S&P gained 5-points and NASDAQ is up 15-points in pre-market action. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.5% lower, the DAX 0.6% lower, though Athens has rebounded 0.5% after the sell-off. Japan's Nikkei sank 1.13% after more volatility in China with the Shenzhen down 4.0% and Shanghai Comp 3.6% lower. Oracle sank 6% after subpar earnings were forecast in part due to the strong dollar. Rite Aid dove 5% after weak forecasts as well. Philly Fed and LEI remain on the docket.
09:20 EDTU.S. CPI rose 0.4% in May with the core up 0.1%
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% in May with the core up 0.1%, not quite as hot as forecast. There were no revision to the respective gains of 0.1% and 0.3% in May. Energy prices rebounded 4.3% after falling 1.3% previously. Transportation was the other culprit behind the headline strength, surging 2.7%. Commodities increased 0.9%. Service costs rose 0.2%. Food/beverage costs were flat, as was housing. Apparel prices declined 0.5%. Medical care edged up 0.2%. Recreation rose 0.1%.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: curve steepening remains the play
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09:15 EDTThe 0.4% May U.S. CPI rise
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09:12 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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09:06 EDTConsumer Advisory Board to hold a meeting
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09:00 EDTFed 2015 roadmap and other takeaways from Yellen Q&A:
Fed 2015 roadmap and other takeaways from Yellen Q&A: according to WSJ's Hilsenrath, 1) the dot-plot suggests the Fed is split between one or two small hikes by year-end, likely September and December, if both. 2) Yellen's New Gradualism Mantra is that rate increases will be gradual and shallow. 3) Believe it when they see it - having been burned by growth in the past the Fed "would like to see more decisive evidence that a moderate pace of economic growth can be sustained." 4) Yellen's on hawkish note - she agreed with Dudley that the Fed could have hiked more rapidly in 2004-06 and won't be mechanistic this time. 5) Congress leave us alone - "I would ask, what exactly is the problem?" Ms. Yellen said. "I'm not certain what the problem is that needs to be addressed."
08:50 EDTU.S. current account deficit rose to $113.3 in Q1 from -$103.1 B
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08:50 EDTThe 12k U.S. initial claims drop to 267k
The 12k U.S. initial claims drop to 267k in the BLS survey week more than reversed the prior 2k rise to 279k, as claims continue to oscillate above the 262k cycle-low from the end of April. Claims are tight, and are again adhering to a cyclical downtrend after a stalled pace of improvement through the volatile winter months. Claims are averaging just 273k in June, versus higher prior averages of 274k in May, 281k in April, 285k in March, and 306k in February. The 267k BLS survey week reading also undershot prior BLS figures of 275k in May, 296k in April, 293k in March, and 285k in February. Analysts still expect a 220k June nonfarm payroll gain that undershoots the 280k May pop but nearly matches the 221k April rise. Payrolls face upside risk from tight claims and heightened consumer confidence in the face of lower gasoline prices. Analysts also face upside risk from the April vehicle assembly rate rise to a 12.0 M clip and the 7.6% May sales rate surge to a 17.7 M cycle-high. Analysts face downside risk from factory sentiment weakness as seen with Monday's Empire State report.
08:45 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
The Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs and Federal Management holds a hearing entitled, "Re-Examining EPA's Management of the Renewable Fuel Standard Program" with Janet McCabe, Acting Asst Administrator of the EPA on June 18 at 9 am. Webcast Link
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
Treasury Action: yields steadied above lows after the trio of CPI, C/A and claims data were on balance not too dramatic in terms of the Fed timing, as the cool 0.1% core CPI gain offset the drop in jobless claims. The T-note yield had rebounded from post-FOMC lows of 2.26% to test 2.31% before easing back. The 2s-10s spread has widened out to +167 bp as the front-end continues to outperform.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell back
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI rose 0.4% in May with the core up 0.1%
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08:41 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:41 EDTCurrent Account data reported
Current Account at -$113.3B vs consensus of -$116.5B
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dipped 12k to 267k in the week ended June 13
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08:34 EDTFutures remain higher following CPI and claims data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of several economic data points. The consumer prices index showed prices rose 0.4% in the month of May, versus expectations for a 0.5% increase. The core reading, which removes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, versus the expected increase of 0.2%. Initial jobless claims were 267,000, versus expectations for 277,000 first-time claims.
08:20 EDTU.S. CPI preview: May headline CPI is expected to grow 0.5%
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview
U.S. Current Account Preview: The Q1 current account report is expected to reveal a -$116.7 B headline deficit (median -$117.5 B) from -$113.5 in Q4 of last year. This compares to the already released trade deficit for Q1 which was -$77.0 B in the second GDP release from -$40 B in Q4 of last year.
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude bounced to $60.84
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08:04 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on June 18 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are in rally mode
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07:41 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:37 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:26 EDTBMO Capital to hold a conference
4th Annual Fixed Income Insurance Conference is being held in Toronto on June 18.
07:25 EDTCIBC to hold a forum
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07:24 EDTFederal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Philadelphia & Richmond hold summit
2015 Policy Summit on Housing, Human Capital & Inequality is being held in Pittsburgh on June 18-19 with webcasted presentations to begin on June 18 at 11:30 am; not all presentations may be webcasted. Webcast Link
07:22 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2015 Media in Montauk Conference is being held in Montauk, NY on June 18-19.
07:17 EDTFutures higher ahead of several economic data points
Stock futures are higher this morning as the market looks to extend yesterday’s advance following the Fed policy statement. Investors will be watching a bevy of economic data, including weekly jobless claims, the consumer prices index, the leading economic indicators, the natural gas inventory report and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey.
06:18 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 18
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.13%, DAX down 0.77%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $60.59, natural gas down 0.03%, gold at $1197 an ounce, copper up 2.3%.
06:10 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
June 17, 2015
17:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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17:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: June Philly Fed comes out Thursday morning and analysts expect an increase to 7.0 (median 8.0) following May's dip to 6.7. The Empire State Index for the month has already been released with a drop to -2.0 from 3.1 along side a more restrained ISM-adjusted decline to 51.6 from 51.7. Overall, analysts expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in June with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 for a third month.
16:55 EDTFOMC On Track For September, Ambiguity Aside:
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16:50 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
U.S. Leading Indicators Preview: May leading indicators is out Thursday and is seen posting a 0.5% (median 0.4%) headline increase that follows a 0.7% headline in April. The firm headline should be driven by the bounce in permits data for the month after a string of weak housing data heading into Spring.
15:40 EDTYellen referenced the strong dollar
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15:35 EDTYellen said the message to savers is that the economy is improving
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15:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is approaching lows of the week
FX Action: USD-JPY is approaching lows of the week, basing at 123.21, just above Monday's 123.17 base, and last Friday's 123.14 bottom. Bids are said to be in place at 123.10-123.00, though stops are expected to be large under the figure, opening the door for a test of 122.60-50.
15:25 EDTYellen sees the potential for disruptions out of Greece if no deal is reached
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15:25 EDTYellen on the state of consumer spending
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15:20 EDTYellen on a "taper tantrum:"
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15:20 EDTYellen questioned on increased rental and housing costs
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15:15 EDTYellen on low productivity growth
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15:10 EDTYellen on rate increase this year and IMF delay advice
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15:02 EDTYellen says Fed attentive to international spillovers from U.S. policy decisions
15:00 EDTYellen said that the Fed's progress on the 2 criteria
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15:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar has stayed down
FX Action: The dollar has stayed down, as yields stay down, with the dollar on session lows against all the major currencies. EUR-USD has peaked just shy of 1.1335, a six-session peak, as USD-JPY has slipped to 123.36 lows, and near the bottom of this week's trading range. Cable meanwhile, is up on seven-month highs of 1.5829, after basing at 1.5682 immediately following the FOMC announcement.
14:55 EDTYellen says there's a range of opinions on the policy stance
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14:53 EDTCBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index down 4.5% to 5.93
14:47 EDTYellen repeats that monetary policy decisions will be data dependent
Yellen says "entire expected trajectory" of policy should matter to market participants, not simply the timing of the first Fed rate increase. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is speaking in a press conference following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.
14:45 EDTFOMC forecast revisions
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14:45 EDTFed Chair Yellen said she did't want to "overstate the importance"
Fed Chair Yellen said she did't want to "overstate the importance" of the first rate hike as she paraphrased the statement, trying to stem market volatility. She noted the economy hit a soft patch in Q1, with activity little changed. Some cyclical weakness in the labor market remains and wage growth is still subdued. Her tone is again tilted to the dovish side..
14:39 EDTWeek of 6/26 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:39 EDTWeek of 6/26 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially rallied
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed from highs
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14:10 EDTFOMC maintained a steady policy stance and upgraded its economic outlook
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14:08 EDTFed lowers 2015 GDP growth outlook to 1.8%-2%
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14:04 EDTFed says rate hike appropriate with better labor market
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14:00 EDTFederal Reserve leaves benchmark rates unchanged
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14:00 EDTFOMC T-minus 10 and counting:
FOMC T-minus 10 and counting: the Fed is set to announce its decision shortly, with Yellen to follow with her press conference at the bottom of the hour. The statement isn't likely to be too telling. The economic outlook should be upgraded a bit versus the somewhat downtrodden view from April after the dismal Q1 weakness. Also, the inflation outlook might pick up a bit as energy prices have rebounded. But, of most importance will be the Fed's new forecasts (SEP), including the dot-plot, and then Yellen's comments.
13:55 EDTFed's Yellen is getting some heat for "willful obstruction"
Fed's Yellen is getting some heat for "willful obstruction" of the subpoena to get her to reveal the protagonist in the the leak probe, according to the House Financial Services Committee, which rejected her reason for non-compliance. Fed reporter Pedro da Costa of the WSJ has allegedly been banned from today's presser after the statement for pestering Yellen on the leak, and he's asked others to press her in his stead. Could get interesting.
12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: the low-volume sell-off
Treasury Option Action: the low-volume sell-off in underlying Treasury futures into the Fed decision has been accompanied by mixed option activity, say sources. They note that it's been fairly orderly and directionally mixed. Among the standouts on the 10-year were bullish buyers of 12k in July 126 calls, 3.5k in July 127 calls, along with bullish sales of 7.5k in July 125/124 put 1x2s, 5k in August 124 puts and 1k in August 125/123.5 put spreads. On the bearish side were purchases of 5k in August 122/123.5/125 put butterflies, 5k in July 123.5 puts and 7.5k in week 3 124 puts. Also bearish were sales of some 15k total in various call structures. September 10s reversed opening gains and have since slumped 14.5-ticks to the 125-145 area, compared with the 126-02 to 125-135 range. The cash T-note has since backed up from 2.30% in Asia to session highs of 2.377%.
11:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has erased all of its overnight gains
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11:35 EDTFOMC forecast revisions will be a key outcome from today' meeting
FOMC forecast revisions will be a key outcome from today' meeting and will be used to assess tightening probabilities for later in the year, as well as the likely rate trajectory. Despite the bounce in growth optimism in recent weeks, the FOMC will likely trim the official GDP estimates for 2015. But, it is also expected to increase the 2015-16 PCE chain price projections as energy prices have partly recovered from early-2015 lows. Analysts expect a 0.1%-0.2% downward shift in the 2015 GDP central tendency of 2.3%-2.7%, and 0.4% boosts in the 2015 PCE chain price central tendency of 0.6%-0.8%, with likely additional upward nudge of 0.1% in the low-end inflation estimates for 2016. The core price central tendencies should remain roughly unchanged. The Fed may sidestep the usual downward bumps in the jobless rate estimates, given the flat jobless rate trend since February. The aggressive high-end near-term Fed funds rate estimates should be lowered as views converge toward the market expectation of a September or October start for Fed tightening. page for a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts.
11:20 EDTU.S. equities are creeping higher with Europe
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11:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar has moved broadly higher
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $60.55
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of June 12
Crude oil inventories 2.68M draw vs. consensus of 1.8M draw. Gasoline inventories 460K build vs. consensus of 800K draw. Distillates 114K build vs. consensus of 950K build
10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are bracing for the Fed call
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09:42 EDTStocks add to yesterday’s gains with higher open ahead of Fed
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD climbed to 1.2333 highs
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude oil moved to five-session highs
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08:25 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer
U.S. equities are mildly firmer even as Europe continues to sag on contradictory headlines on Greece ahead of Thursday's meeting, while the proximity of the FOMC decision will preoccupy Wall Street for the balance of the session. The Dow is 19-points firmer, S&P rose 1-point and NASDAQ is fractionally lower ahead of the opening clang, below earlier highs. In Europe, the acrimony and mud slinging on Greece continues to cause collateral damage on stocks, with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.8% lower, the DAX off 0.7% and Athens -1.1%. In contrast, Asia bounced back with a 1.6% rise on the Shanghai Comp and 1.9% gain on the Shenzhen, though a 0.19% drop on the Nikkei. After the MBA reported weak mortgage activity due to higher rates, the EIA inventory report is due next before the Fed decision. T-mobile rallied nearly 2% after reports the Comcast might be a suitor, while Adobe sank over 1% after a sales miss and Synergy Pharma surged 45% after its constipation drug study hit its targets.
08:23 EDTiShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund volatility up
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08:20 EDTJanney Capital analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts host an Analyst/Industry conference call with PricewaterhouseCoopers Partner, Gregory Johnson, on June 17 at 10:30 am.
08:05 EDTU.S. productivity slowdown wildcard on FOMC day:
U.S. productivity slowdown wildcard on FOMC day: the Fed is mulling three views on productivity that could dictate its tightening trajectory, according to WSJ's Hilsenrath detailed in his Grand Central blog - 1) Productivity was damaged by the 2007-09 financial crisis and recession 2) productivity was already on the decline, and 3) due to mismeasurement, there's no decline at all. "The Fed's policy announcement today will contain important clues about how officials are reading the slowdown. If they think the productivity slowdown is real, they will stick to plans to start raising short-term interest rates later this year, but their projections for rates in 2016 and beyond could come down, as might their projections for the economy's long-run growth potential. Beyond these projections, don't be surprised if the issue comes up in Janet Yellen's post-meeting discussion of the economy or in the question-and-answer session with reporters that follows, because the issue is sure to get plenty of airing in the Fed's behind-the-scenes discussions." Hilsenrath also noted on the dot-plot that there will be contributions from 2 interim policy makers, given seat vacancies.
07:47 EDTFOMC holds a meeting
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 5.5%
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07:38 EDTFederal Reserve Board Chair Yellen holds press conference
Following the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Board Chair Yellen holds press conference on a variety of economic issues on June 17 at 2:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly lower
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07:31 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:29 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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07:27 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:26 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee to hold a hearing
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07:22 EDTFDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:21 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:18 EDTSunTrust to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTBMO Capital to hold a forum
10th Annual Women in Fixed Income Forum is being held in Toronto on June 17.
06:58 EDTFutures suggesting follow through to yesterday’s rally
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06:11 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 17
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05:56 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
05:40 EDTGreece sells EUR 1.3 B of 13 week Treasury Bills
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02:35 EDTFX Update Narrow ranges have been prevailing
FX Update Narrow ranges have been prevailing into the FOMC, which is the first Fed meeting where there is a possibility of rate action -- albeit very remote -- in quite literally years. No policy action is widely anticipated, but markets will scrutinize the statement, forecast revisions and Yellen's press conference for clues on the timing of a first tightening. On net, analysts expect that the door to rate lift-off in September will be left open, but cautiously so with the stress that the path to tightening will remain data dependent. Analysts still expect this will be sufficient to be dollar supportive as it will remind markets that the Fed is a lot further down the path to tightening than other central banks. The market for euros also has the Greek problem to contend with, as the chances of a default are growing with prospects of a deal at tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting dwindling. Sterling has UK labour data today, where average household income data has potential to reanimate BoE tightening expectations, which currently centre on Q2 next year.
June 16, 2015
17:05 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:51 EDTS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index to be reported at 09:00
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16:28 EDTWeek of 6/27 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
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14:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: a busy day for 5-year options
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13:45 EDTFX Action: As with other dollar pairing, USD-CAD has traded sideways
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13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC began today's meeting, the first "live" one
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13:10 EDTU.S. equities extended their rebound
U.S. equities extended their rebound in early afternoon trade with a tailwind from the sharp recovery in Europe into the close earlier after bitter words from Greek PM Tsipras in parliament and after German PM Merkel said she wanted "to do everything to keep Greece in the Eurozone," though she downplayed any hopes of a deal Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 settled 0.47% higher along with a 0.54% gain in the DAX compared to -0.7% at the NY open, though Athens extended its losses to -4.7%. PIMCO's El-Erian earlier gave risk of a Grexident 55% odds, but saw the ECB intervening to stabilize in a crunch and any spread widening on the event a "buying opportunity". The major U.S. indices are about 0.45% higher now, while the biggest gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +1.8% (amid merger mania in the health services sector), Intel +0.8% and Disney +0.8%, while the largest loser is CAT -0.8%. In the NASDAQ, penny stock FreeSeas +112% is among the biggest gainers, while Avalanche Biotech -53.4% among the deepest decliners.
12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has again been held to a narrow trading range
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong
Treasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong, but supported by the $10 B cut in size from the last couple of weeks. The bill stopped at 0.0%, where it traded at the bid deadline, having richened from 0.005% in the prior 2 auctions. Bids totaled $115.8 B for a 4.64 cover, much stronger than the prior 3.79 and the 3.73 average. Flight to safety amid Greek uncertainties probably helped too. Indirect were soft, however, with bidders taking only 13.7%, half of last week's 34.5% and below the 26.3% average.
11:35 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow remained unchanged at 1.9% for Q2
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11:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bit more bullish turn on 5s
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11:00 EDTTreasury Curve Action: minor steepening
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10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning in the belly
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10:05 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility has been whipped around
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09:50 EDTTreasury Action: longs doubled to 17 from 8 in the JPMorgan "active client"
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09:38 EDTAverages rising in early trading after quiet open
Stock futures improved slightly during the pre-market trading session, leading to a quiet but mixed open for the broader market. Headlines continue regarding Greece's debt struggles and investors are being kept guessing as to whether a resolution will be reached before the end of the month. The U.S. housing data was mixed and investors are now focused on the two day FOMC meeting that kicks off today. In early trading, the Dow is up 58 points, the Nasdaq is up 11 points and the S&P is up 6 points.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: the repo market is looser after the $58 B settlement
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09:15 EDTThe big May U.S. starts and permits divergence
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09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are nudging higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction
FX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction to the softer housing starts outcome, perhaps offset by a surge in building permits. EUR-USD moved 10 points higher to 1.1230, as USD-JPY fell to 123.30 from 123.40. Equity futures continue to indicate a modestly lower Wall Street open, while yields are little changed.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields waffled above lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts dropped 11.1% to 1,036k in May
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08:33 EDTHousing data has little effect on futures
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08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $59.90/bbl
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $59.90/bbl, after ranging between $60.34 and $59.46 overnight. Fund sellers were reportedly active over the $60 level, while a firmer dollar has capped upside for now. Weekly API inventory data is due after the close, where a 3.5 M bbl stock draw is expected. RBOB gasoline futures are steady near $2.10/gallon, as natural gas trade near its one week high, currently at $2.865/M BTU.
08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
U.S. Housing Starts Preview: May housing starts data are expected to decrease 3.1% to a 1,100k (median 1,095k) pace for the month from 1,135k in April. There is some downside risk to the release as the same month's NAHB index declined to 54 from 56 in April.
08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales edged up 0.2% in the week ended June 13
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:36 EDTiShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund volatility up
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded firmer
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06:58 EDTCBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index TYVIX at 6.25
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06:47 EDTFutures suggest another lower open for stocks
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 16
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05:46 EDTune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
02:40 EDTFX Update: The yen saw moderate weakness
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02:35 EDTFX Update: The yen saw moderate weakness
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