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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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July 3, 2015
11:50 EDTFX Update: Activity is now very light
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The yen has continued to firm in thin trade
FX Action: The yen has continued to firm in thin trade. USD-JPY has touched a new two-day low at 122.60, and EUR-JPY a three-day low at 136.02. AUD-JPY has come under particular pressure, down over 1.5% on the day in making a 10-week low at 92.09. GBP-JPY, meanwhile, has posted a three-week low. The yen's move has inversely correlated with a steepening in equity market losses in Europe, with the STOXX 600 equity index now showing a 0.9% decline on the day. The yen has a long standing inverse correlation with stock markets during period of heightened risk aversion in global financial markets (that causation being covering of yen-funded carry trades and Japanese investor repatriation of overseas assets).
08:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has nudged out a new intraday high
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07:05 EDTFX Update: GBP outperformed after a strong UK services PMI
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The AUD dove on weak data
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July 2, 2015
21:41 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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21:41 EDTConsumer Credit to be reported at 15:00
May Consumer Credit will be reported at 15:00 . Current consensus is $18.5B for the month
21:41 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level to be reported at 08:30
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21:41 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite to be reported at 10:00
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21:41 EDTPMI Services Index Level to be reported at 09:45
June PMI Services Index Level will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 55.1
21:31 EDTWeek of 7/15 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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21:31 EDTWeek of 7/6 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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16:49 EDTWeek of 7/10 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:49 EDTWeek of 7/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
16:49 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 10:00
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16:49 EDTWeek of 7/11 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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14:50 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields gapped lower on payrolls Friday after the report came in shy of elevated expectations, along with lower back revisions and flat wages. That no doubt put the Fed back on the fence over a September hike in combination with all the latest volatility out of China and Europe. Jobless claims rose and factory orders sank, adding to the bullish mix for bonds. European stocks splashed lower into their close after harsh word from the IMF and ECB on Greece and likely haircuts, pulling Wall Street back under water after earlier gains on the flatter Fed outlook. The dollar initially weakened before finding its groove again ahead of the long weekend.
14:27 EDTGlobal X Funds July 10 straddle priced for 22% movement into vote
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: upcoming auctions could be difficult
Treasury Action: upcoming auctions could be difficult with the drop in yields today, and with uncertainty over the FOMC, Greece, and China. When issued yields are down sharply after the jobs report, paced by the fronrt end on Fed expectations. The 3-year rate is down 7 bps to 1.030%, while the 10-year is off 4.5 bps at 2.385%, and the 30-year down 3 bps at 3.180%. These would still be some of the cheapest rates in a while but might not be sufficient to compensate for risks. The 3-year note is also looking very pricey on the curve with the 3s-10s spread having widened to 138 bps from 134 bps at the start of the week, and from 125 bps two weeks ago.
14:05 EDTMarket drifts near session lows
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14:00 EDTFedspeak from Janet Yellen late next week
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13:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are extending gains
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13:00 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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12:16 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated into Greece referendum vote
Global X Funds July call option implied volatility is at 129, August is at 98, September is at 85, December at 74; compared to its 52-week range of 31 to 110, suggesting large price movement into Greek referendum vote.
12:10 EDTA Modestly Disappointing U.S. Jobs Report:
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11:30 EDTTreasury announced a $58 B 3-pronged bundle of coupon offerings
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11:26 EDTArgus retail analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled back under 1.2600
FX Action: USD-CAD has settled back under 1.2600 after the post-payrolls tumble from 1.2620-plus levels. Despite the advance against the broadly weaker USD, the CAD still lost some ground to the EUR, even after the above-expectations outcome of the June BRC manufacturing PMI. USD-CAD's 11-week peak at 1.2633 looks out of reach for now. The correction low at 1.2558 provides initial support.
10:40 EDTU.S. factory goods orders undershot assumptions
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending June 26
Gas inventories 69 Bcf build vs. consensus of 71 Bcf build.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained pinned lower
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10:15 EDTU.S. factory orders fell 1.0% in May
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10:06 EDTFactory Orders data reported
May Factory Orders down -1.0% vs consensus of -0.3% for the month
09:56 EDTAverages higher after U.S. job growth slows in June
Stock futures were higher early in the pre-market trading session and solidified in positive ground following the nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims data that was released prior to the open. The monthly report showed that job growth slowed in June and the unemployment rate ticked down as many left the labor force. Investors will now be looking at the next round of economic reports, which include the ISM New York regional data, factory orders for the month of May and the weekly natural gas inventories report. In early trading, the Dow is up 40 points, the Nasdaq is up 2 points and the S&P is up 4 points.
09:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: decent volume with a few standouts
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09:51 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 6/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 44.0
09:40 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
U.S. Factory Goods Preview: May factory goods orders should reveal a 0.5% decline for orders (median -0.5%) with shipments up 0.4% and inventories down 0.1% for the month. This follows respective April figures of -0.7% for orders, flat for shipments and 0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast should leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.34 for a third month.
09:30 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has settled back under 1.1100
FX Action: EUR-USD has settled back under 1.1100 after making a 1.1121 post-payrolls high failing to sustain gains though the 50% retrace mark of yesterday's range. As analysts noted earlier, analysts don't expect sustained gains as market participants are in a noncommittal mode ahead of the long U.S. weekend and particularly Sunday's referendum in Greece. Notable option expiries at today's New York cut have strikes at 1.1100 and 1.1125.
09:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: September is still the best guess for a Fed rate hike
Fed Policy Outlook: September is still the best guess for a Fed rate hike as the data still fit with a pop in Q2 growth to 3.0% and an overall moderate pace for the year, albeit with downside risk. However, the less than robust jobs report doesn't guarantee such action at the end of Q3, especially with policymakers reportedly becoming increasingly concerned over the growth implications from the Greek standoff and the firmer dollar. Payrolls posted their 14th 200k+ gain over the past 16 months, though it would have been 15 without the downward revision to April. the unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, the lowest April 2008, but for the wrong reason with a big decline in the labor force, which knocked the rate to its lowest since late 1977. Also, wage growth is a big part of the FOMC's tightening calculus, and the flat figure for June and the downward revision to May won't be inspiring. Continue to monitor growth and inflation data, as well as Fedspeak, for insight on the Fed's rate liftoff and trajectory.
09:10 EDTFor the jobs data impact on other June reports
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09:00 EDTThe 10k U.S. initial claims bounce
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08:50 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on quarterly forecasts
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08:50 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 10k to 281k in the week ended June 27
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 10k to 281k in the week ended June 27 versus 271k in the prior week. That brought the 4-week average up to 274.75k versus 273.75k previously. Continuing claims increased 15k to 2,264k in the week ended June 20 after climbing to 2,249k in the prior week (revised from 2,247k). The BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.
08:45 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 223k in June
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar gapped over half a big figure lower
FX Action: The dollar gapped over half a big figure lower versus the euro in the initial wake of the U.S. payrolls release, which undershot expectations with a 223k headline. Initial claims also disappointed in rising to 281k. EUR-USD spiked to a high at 1.1120 high, which is an intraday high and brings the pair above the 50% retrace mark of yesterday's range. USD-JPY has dived to a low-so-far of 122.96, down from the 123.67 bid rate seen prior to the data releases.
08:45 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 10k to 281k in the week ended June 27
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08:40 EDTFutures still pointing to higher open following jobs data
Stock futures remained above fair value following the release of several economic reports. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report showed the addition of 223,000 jobs, versus expectations for 233,000 jobs to have been added last month. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3% from the prior monthís 5.5% rate. The weekly jobless claims data showed initial claims were 281,000, versus expectations for 270,000 first-time claims.
08:30 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls rise 223,000, Unemployment rate drops to 5.3%
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08:25 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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08:25 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has continued to find demand on dips
FX Action: USD-CAD has continued to find demand on dips, earlier being picked up during what proved to be a brief dip below 1.2600. An 11-week peak was left at 1.2633 during the European AM session. The Apr-10 high at 1.2666 provides the next upside focus. Encouraging U.S. data this week have underpinned the greenback, along with expectations for a decent employment report today, while the CAD has been underperforming this week following an unexpected 0.1% dip in April Canadian GDP and sub-expectations IPPI data. The Canadian agenda today has the BRC manufacturing PMI for June.
08:05 EDTJobs report seen confirming Fed's growth narrative:
Jobs report seen confirming Fed's growth narrative: according to WSJ's Hilsenrath's Grand Central blog (subscription) the Fed will be working with two narratives on growth - 1) the Q2 rebound from "transitory" weakness in Q1 and 2) present global risks from Greece and China dowsing growth and inflation via the firmer dollar. He sees the jobs report informing the former: "The jobs report released by the Labor Department Thursday is widely expected to confirm the resumption-of-growth narrative for the second quarter. Analysts expect the government to report that national payrolls increased in June by more than 200,000 for the 15th time in the past 16 months - the best run of that length and magnitude since the mid-1990s. The jobless rate is expected to be reported down to 5.4% from 5.5%. If the analysts are right, it will suggest the U.S. economy finished the first half of the year with a solid foundation to weather turbulence from overseas. Fed officials will then need to spend the coming weeks assessing whether spillovers actually materialize and with how much force."
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bond yields edged higher overnight
Treasury Market Outlook: bond yields edged higher overnight in light trading with the 10-year Treasury up 2 bps to hit 2.445%. Bunds are underperforming with the rate up 8 bps at 0.88%. Equities are little changed. The U.S. June employment report is the focus today as the Greek drama is on hold for now ahead of Sunday's referendum. In overnight news. Sweden's Riksbank surprised with a rate cut to -0.35% from -0.25% and upped QE by SEK 45 B. The UK construction PMI was stronger than expected at 58.1, while Eurozone PPI inched up to -2.0% y/y. In the U.S. there is also data on initial jobless claims and factory orders.
06:47 EDTFutures higher ahead of economic reports
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06:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar remain broader firm
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 2
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05:51 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar has remained firm
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02:02 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 15:00
July 1, 2015
18:20 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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18:11 EDTMoody's cuts Puerto Rico rating to Caa3 from Caa2, outlook negative
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's general obligation and guaranteed bonds as well as its senior lien Sales Tax Financing Corporation bonds to Caa3 from Caa2. We also lowered ratings assigned to other securities, including bonds of the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, which also were downgraded to Caa3 from Caa2. Bonds already in the Ca category were affirmed at that level. In all, about $55.5B was affected by these actions. With today's GO rating action, the seventh downgrade in the past five years, the commonwealth's rating has declined 12 notches since 2011. The outlook for all affected securities remains negative. Reference Link
16:59 EDTPuerto Rico pays entire $1.9B in debts due today, CNBC says
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16:46 EDTMoody's cuts Greece rating to Caa3 from Caa2, may be cut further
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Greece's government bond rating to Caa3 from Caa2 and placed the rating on review for further downgrade. The short-term rating is unaffected by this rating action and remains Not Prime. Moody's government bond rating applies to privately-held debt only. Reference Link
16:45 EDTMoody's cuts Greece rating to Caa3 from Caa2, may be cut further
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16:33 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 12:25
16:33 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 10:00
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16:33 EDTWeek of 7/10 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTTreasury Action: debt managers announce next week's supply tomorrow
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14:22 EDTMarket off best levels as Greek optimism bounce fades again
Stocks remain in positive territory, but well off their best levels, in afternoon trading. The market saw its highs shortly after the open as investors rode the optimism over the potential of a deal for Greece, but the latest headlines have Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the president of the Eurogroup, stating that he sees no need for further talks on Greece and this point and that he awaits the result of this Sunday's scheduled referendum. The market has pared its gains, but the Dow is higher by 0.5% and the S&P is up 0.4% at time of writing. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4 but down volume is slightly ahead of up volume.
14:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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14:15 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
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14:10 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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14:10 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow was boosted to 2.2% for Q2
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14:02 EDTDijsselbloem says no grounds yet for further talks with Greece, Bloomberg says
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13:19 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated on Greek debt crisis
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12:30 EDTWeek of 7/10 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures remain heavy
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11:40 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed upside surprises across the ISM, ADP, and construction spending figures, though vehicle sales are posting a 3% June drop-back from a May cycle-high that trimmed the day's good news. For construction, analysts had revisions back through 2013 that lifted the construction trajectory into Q2 after what is now a smaller winter-weather hit, hence lifting growth prospects despite restraint in new home construction. The ISM popped to 53.5 from 52.8 with a employment spike to 55.5 from 51.7, while ADP posted a solid 237k June rise that defied the typical downward bias in as-reported ADP figures. Analysts raised our June nonfarm payroll estimate to a 230k from 220k, with upside risks that analysts reviewed in Monday's commentary.
11:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is off earlier highs but still well bid
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11:15 EDTThe dollar extended gains on the ADP payrolls data
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11:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: a big put spread buyer
Treasury Option Action: a big put spread buyer was spotted earlier scooping up 26k in September 124.5/122.5 put spreads vs 10-year futures, though there was a smaller bullish buyer of 2.5k in week 2 127/5/128/129 call butterflies too. Against bond futures there was a bullish seller of 5k in August 147 puts, bullish buyer of 2k in August 153 calls and seller of 2k in August 149/145 put spreads. September 10s are 20.5 tics lower near 135-17 compared to a 126-10 to 125-09 range, while September bonds are nearly 2-points lower near 148-31.
11:05 EDTThe 0.8% U.S. May construction spending rise
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10:45 EDTNYMEX crude is 2.6% lower below $58 bbl after an EIA build
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of June 26
Crude oil inventories 2.39M build vs. consensus of 2.5M draw. Gasoline inventories 1.76M draw vs. consensus of 250K draw. Distillates 392K build vs. consensus of 1.5M build.
10:30 EDTU.S. Auto Sales Preview
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10:25 EDTThe U.S. ISM June rise to 53.5 from 52.8
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their rise
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10:15 EDTU.S. construction spending rose 0.8% in May
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10:10 EDTU.S. June ISM manufacturing index rose to 53.5 in June
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10:01 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard Speech to be released at 10:00
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10:01 EDTISM Mfg Index data reported
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10:01 EDTConstruction Spending data reported
May Construction Spending up 0.8% vs. consensus of 0.5% for the month
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit PMI slipped to 53.6 in the final June read
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09:52 EDTGreek hopes, ADP jobs data lift market at open
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09:50 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
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09:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: July supply should total $80 B to $85 B
U.S. corporate bond update: July supply should total $80 B to $85 B. That would be down from June's $190 B (which was the lowest monthly total of the year so far), as Greece worries and the start of the summer doldrums slowed issuance. Last July, volume totaled almost $72 B. For Q2, offerings hit $423 B, down 5.3% compared to Q1's $447 B total, but up 9.8% y/y versus the $385 B in Q2 2014. For the year-to-date, issuance is up 8.5% y/y to nearly $870 B versus $802 B. Issuance should pick up, assuming some stability from Greece, though an active calendar may have to wait until the jobs report is safely out of the way.
09:25 EDTFed Governor Brainard: a study of liquidity in the bond market
Fed Governor Brainard: a study of liquidity in the bond market is in the early stages, but suggests only limited evidence so far that liquidity has decreased, despite episodes of high volatility. The former Treasury official notes that volatility could be a function of causes other than lack of liquidity, such as the type and risk preferences of investors. She acknowledges that high frequency trading (HFT) and regulatory changes may contribute to lower liquidity at times of stress, but the impact remains unclear. "Anecdotes of diminished liquidity abound, statistical evidence is harder to come by," she said.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities ramped higher
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08:50 EDTU.S. repo market is returning to normal after rates spiked on quarter-end
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar extended gains on the ADP payrolls data
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08:40 EDTSF Fed dove Williams is slated to speak on the economic outlook
SF Fed dove Williams is slated to speak on the economic outlook before the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists late from 14 ET. Most recently the voter was anticipating a couple quarter point hikes before year-end, but saw little cost in waiting for more evidence.
08:35 EDTThe 237k June ADP rise beat our 210k private and 220k total payroll forecasts
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08:30 EDTGallup US Payroll to Population level data reported
June Gallup US Payroll to Population level at 45.5
08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up again
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08:27 EDTFutures remain higher amid Greek deal optimism
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08:25 EDTFX Action: The USD is in perky form
FX Action: The USD is in perky form, trading at two-day highs versus the euro and yen, two-week highs against sterling, 26-day highs versus the Canadian dollar. EUR-USD's low today is 1.1095 despite news that Greece's Tsipras will accept most of the creditor demands, with Germany's Merkel saying that thee will be no more negotiations until after Sunday's referendum, which makes a lot of sense. USD-CAD just logged a new high at 1.2525 in what is the third consecutive up day for this pair, aided by underperformance in the Canadian dollar following soft data north of the border. The dollar's way against sterling has similarly been aided by an unexpected drop in the June UK manufacturing PMI to a two-year low, and some dovish-leaning remarks from BoE's Carney. Focus now shifts to today's batch of U.S. data.
08:25 EDTU.S. ADP reported private payrolls rose 237k in June
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08:16 EDTADP Employment Report employment data reported
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07:50 EDTU.S. ADP employment survey preview:
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 4.7%
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07:45 EDTU.S. Challenger said announced layoffs rose 3.8k to 44.8k (nsa) in June
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds decline and equities climb on Greek news
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 1
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05:55 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:25 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has come under pressure
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June 30, 2015
22:15 EDTChina's manufacturing PMI's came in short of expectations
China's manufacturing PMI's came in short of expectations. The HSBC/Markit PMI slipped to a final 49.4 in June from the preliminary or flash 49.6 reading, but did manage to top the 49.2 seen in May. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in June from 50.9 in May. The contractionary reading for the HSBC/Markit PMI and the erosion in the official PMI highlight the ongoing difficulties in China's economy.
18:34 EDTGreece fails to make $1.7B payment to IMF, WSJ reports
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18:18 EDTIMF says Greece in arrears after failing to make $1.7B payment, WSJ reports
16:45 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
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16:35 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
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16:30 EDTU.S. Auto Sales Preview
U.S. Auto Sales Preview: Auto dealers will release their June results on Wednesday and analysts expect to see a 2.3% decline to a 17.3 M pace from the 7.6% jump to a 17.7 M pace in May. The slow down in auto sales at the beginning of the year has largely been attributed to poor weather with the ensuing rebound helped along by the decline in gasoline prices.
16:05 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:05 EDTWeek of 7/11 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:05 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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16:05 EDTImport Prices data reported.
June Import Prices at % for the month.
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:43 EDTAverages remain higher as Greek headlines continue crossing
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14:20 EDTFed's Fischer said the FOMC will consider hiking rates in coming months
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13:58 EDTGreece willing to suspend referendum if talks reopen, Times of Malta reports
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13:15 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated as Greece near default
Global X Funds (GREK) July call option implied volatility is at 124, August is at 93, September is at 88, December at 74; compared to its 52-week range of 31 to 110, suggesting large price movement.
12:40 EDTTreasury Action: bonds have erased early losses and yields are lower
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12:28 EDTMerkel says no new negotiations before Greek referendum, Bloomberg reports
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12:00 EDTU.S. equities pared gains into the European close
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill sale was ok
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11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some call spread liquidation
Treasury Option Action: some call spread liquidation has been amid today's positioning, along with a large block purchase. Meanwhile Friday's 10-year straddle (after payrolls Thursday) is trading at 9 tic premium compared to the average 15 tic premium for the past 6-months, suggesting that the July 4th weekend is seen reducing rather than increasing trading risks around the number. Specifically, there was a purchase of 10k in August 124 puts blocked overnight and purchase of 5k in September 125.5 puts vs a sale of 5k in August 125 puts on 10-year futures. There was also a sale of 2k in August 158/160 call spreads on bond futures and a sale of 7k in August 118 puts/120.75 call combos on 5-year futures. September 10s are 2.5-tics lower near 126-04.
11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed June gains for both Chicago PMI and consumer confidence, and an April NSA rise for the S&P Case-Shiller home price index of 1.1%, though only the consumer confidence rise beat expectations, as the Chicago bounce still left a lean 49.4 reading, while the home price rise fell short of the seasonal norm. The consumer confidence bounce to the same 101.4 seen in April left the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January, as is the case with all the major sentiment surveys that ratcheted higher into the start of 2015 before oscillating below early-year peaks. Both producer sentiment and confidence have shown an upturn in June.
11:15 EDTRepo rates spiked today amid quarter end pressures
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10:30 EDTFX Action: The CAD has underperformed notably today
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10:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
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10:25 EDTThe June U.S. consumer confidence rise
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence surged to 101.4 in June
U.S. consumer confidence surged to 101.4 in June from 94.6 in May (revised down from 95.4). It ties the March reading, and is the second highest print this year, bested only by the 103.8 in January. The latter was the highest since June 2007. The present situations component rose to 111.6 from 107.1 (revised from 108.1). The expectations index was 94.6 from 86.2 previously (revised from 86.9). The labor market differential improved to -4.3 versus -6.6.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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10:13 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
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10:05 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI jumped 3.2 points to 49.4 in June
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09:50 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI preview:
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09:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning remains the rule, amid reports of a bullish sale of 5k in August 125/September 125.5 put diagonals 10-year futures, along side a week 1/week 2 127.5/128.0 call calendar, thought to be a roll. There was also a purchase of 7k in August 118.0/120.75 risk reversal (buying calls) on 5-year futures. September 10s are 8.5-ticks lower near 126-30, compared to the 126-11 to 125-26 session range.
09:43 EDTStocks higher in early trading amid optimism over Greece
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09:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has perked up
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09:30 EDTGreece asks for two-year bailout program from ESM, Bloomberg reports
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied below highs
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09:20 EDTBalanced Auto Retooling Risks for U.S. Claims:
Balanced Auto Retooling Risks for U.S. Claims: The U.S. vehicle sector has shifted away from its historic pattern of concentrated retooling in the weeks surrounding the July 4th holiday, but the seasonal factors for initial claims seem to have caught-up with this structural shift, and analysts see balanced risks for claims through July around a 274k trajectory. The vehicle assembly rate may still bounce, as seen in July of last year, but the industrial production headline will face offsetting downside seasonal risk from the recent tendency for a utility sector underperformance in both June and July.
09:11 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied some 50 pips on the Canadian GDP miss
FX Action: USD-CAD rallied some 50 pips on the Canadian GDP miss, making a peak of 1.2416, though the pair stalled shy of the Asia high at 1.2423 (which matched the three-week peak seen last Wednesday). The Canadian also saw about a 60 pip drop against the euro. Analysts expect further upside in USD-CAD. The unexpected 0.1% dip in April GDP followed sub-expectations IPPI data yesterday, while the U.S. June payrolls report on Thursday has potential to firm up convictions for the Fed to hike in September. USD-CAD support is at 1.2390 (100-day moving average) and 1.2350-62.
08:25 EDTU.S. equities are in recovery mode
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08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 2.2% in the week ended June 27
U.S. chain store sales rose 2.2% in the week ended June 27, after a 1.6% gain in the prior week, according to data from The Retail Economist. It's a third consecutive weekly increase. The annual rate accelerated to a 2.7% y/y clip rising 1.5% y/y previously. There have been some encouraging signs that the improved employment conditions are driving sales higher.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds have given back some of Monday's gains
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07:40 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley discussed payment system specifics
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07:22 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:20 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a webinar
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07:17 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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07:14 EDTThe Economic Club of Minnesota to hold a meeting
The Economic Club of Minnesota holds a meeting entitled, "E.U. in the U.S. 2015" in Minneapolis on June 30 at 8:30 am.
07:06 EDTFutures higher amid Greek deal optimism
U.S. equity futures are higher following a late night offer from the EU to Greece, which the country is reportedly considering. The fact both sides are talking is raising hopes that a deal can be reached and an exit from the euro can be avoided. In the U.S., investors will be watching the Case/Shiller home price report, Chicago purchasing managerís report and a consumer confidence reading for clues on our own economy.
06:58 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated as Greece near default
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06:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is firmer after earlier clocking a one-month low
FX Action: USD-JPY is firmer after earlier clocking a one-month low at 121.93, now back in the vicinity of 122.40. Expectations for a solid U.S. payrolls report on Thursday should curtail the downside, though any further bouts of pronounced risk aversion in global financial markets (think Grexit) would be yen supportive, as per the usual correlation. The 50-day moving average at 121.87 has been left untroubled so far.
06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 30
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05:56 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:45 EDTFX Update: The main currencies have been relatively subdued
FX Update: The main currencies have been relatively subdued so far today after yesterday's sharp volatility. Focus remains on the South West corner of the Eurozone, with the Greece's repayment to the IMF, due by 22 GMT, not likely to be made (Germany's Schaeuble reportedly confirmed that Athens has announced this). S&P lowered the country's credit rating to CCC in anticipation of this. This will rule out future IMF payments, which effectively voids the latest creditor offer, and means that Sunday's referendum will no longer be about accepting the deal, but as EU's Juncker stressed, Greece's future in the Eurozone. French finance minister, Sapin, said that Grexit would not cause turmoil in the rest of Europe. EUR-USD has seen a 1.1175-1.1241 range so far today, remaining within the upper portion of yesterday's range. USD-JPY posted a 122.19-73 range, holding with the lower part of the range seen yesterday. GBP was unaffected by a much stronger than expected outcome in the June Gfk consumer confidence figure, which came in at +7 from +1, a new cycle high and well up on the median forecast for +2. AUD-USD also saw little movement, holding in the upper 0.76s.
June 29, 2015
16:29 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:29 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:29 EDTFitch downgrades Puerto Rico GO ratings to CC from B
Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's general obligation and related debt ratings to 'CC' from 'B'. The ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative. The downgrade of the ratings to 'CC', which indicates Fitch's belief that default of some kind appears probable, is based on public comments by the governor supporting the broad debt restructuring strategy included in an external report released this morning by GDB, the ratings agency stated.
15:03 EDTFarm Prices data reported
June Farm Prices down -7.0%
15:03 EDTFarm Prices data reported
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15:03 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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14:45 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility increases on Greece imposing capital controls
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14:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: May consumer confidence is out on Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 96.0 (median 96.8) after an increase to 95.4 in May. The already released Michigan Sentiment showed a big improvement for the month with a 96.1 headline in the second release from 90.7 last month. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month did decline, however, falling to 48.1 from 49.7.
14:30 EDTS&P cuts Greece to CCC-, says probability of eurozone exit now about 50%
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14:20 EDTS&P cuts Greece to CCC- from CCC with a negative outlook
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The euro is higher in thin post-Europe trade
FX Action: The euro is higher in thin post-Europe trade despite today having been a tumultuous one in European equity and bond markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 2.7% for the worse, the biggest daily loss this year. The Greek two-year yield rose to 34.4% after a 14 percentage points gain today, while the 10-year yield climbed above 15% for the first time since 2012. EUR-USD, however, has managed to more than recover the sharp losses that were seen first thing in Asia-Pacific, presently settled about 20 pips off the days high at 1.1278. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses are also up. There doesn't appear to be any good explanation why this is so, though it may simply reflect a position clear out as there is both upside and downside risk depending on how developments unfold this week.
14:15 EDTCanada April GDP Preview
Canada April GDP Preview: Analysts expect GDP, due Tuesday, to rise 0.1% in April (median same at +0.1%) after the 0.2% drop in March. An as expected 0.1% gain would leave GDP on track for a 1.0% rise in Q2, which would undershoot the BoC's 1.7% estimate from the April MPR. While the 0.1% gain would be rather modest, it would contrast with the declines in January (-0.2%), February (-0.1%) and March (-0.2%).
14:06 EDTMarket falls to session lows in afternoon trading
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14:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures extended gains
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13:55 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility index bolted 26% higher
U.S. VIX equity volatility index bolted 26% higher to 17.82 highs from lows of 15.82 and as low as 11.93 just a week ago. This is coming hot on the heels of 4% plunge in the Euro Stoxx 50, which has spilled over to a 1.3% drop in the S&P 500. That's the highest VIX level since mid-February, which at that pace puts the index in range of the 25.20 December 19, 2014, high within a couple more sessions, a level set during the last skirmish over Greece. The S&P 500 has meanwhile taken out June lows of 2,072.14 with a low of 2,071.00 today and has May 6 lows of 2,067.93 in its sights.
13:20 EDTA federal bailout of Puerto Rico is not being contemplated
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12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: a big call seller on bonds
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was disappointing
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11:50 EDTU.S. equities are stumbling to fresh lows with Europe
U.S. equities are stumbling to fresh lows with Europe which is closing out by extending losses sharply as the enormity of the potential Grexit sets in. The Euro Stoxx 50 spiraled to a 4.1% loss on the day, led by banking stocks and peripheral weakness. Portugal sank 5.1%, Spain -4.5% and Italy -4.7%, while in core Europe the German DAX was -3.4%, French CAC -3.7% and UK FTSE -1.8%. The NASDAQ comp was subsequently spooked -1.4%, while the Dow and S&P are about 1% lower now. That helped cap the T-note yield under 2.41% and it has since eased under 2.37% as Bunds firmed up into their close as well. The dollar index is 1.25% lower near 95.15, as short-covering on the euro kicks in and it indeed could be a stronger unit without Greece, once past the volatility assuming contagion is contained.
11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy put buying in the belly
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11:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain lower but off their intraday nadirs
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:07 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:55 EDTRisk of a Puerto Rico debt default
Risk of a Puerto Rico debt default continues to swirl around the credit markets, just to keep things interesting given the focus on Grexit and China rate cuts. PR Central Bank governor Padilla warned of a potential "death spiral" earlier, noting that "The debt is not payable, there is not other option. This is not politics, this is math. But analysts have to make the economy grow. If not, analysts will be in a death spiral." Padilla is expected to issue a financial report of the U.S. territory's finances conducted by former IMF/World bank officials by tomorrow and then deliver a major policy ultimatim. The main electricity provider PREPA alone needs to make a $400 M payment to creditors by July 1, out of $9 B outstanding. Defualt partial or full risks spilling back over to U.S. credit markets via heavy holdings of PR debt by U.S. funds.
10:50 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June after falling to -20.8 in May. This is a 6th consecutive month that the regional index has been in contractionary territory (below zero), which is mainly a function of the recession in the oil sector. The employment component rose to -1.2 from -8.2, with the workweek at -10.7 from -11.6, and wages at 16.4 versus 14.7. New orders edged up to -10.3 from -14.1. Prices paid climbed to 7.4 from -1.7, with prices received at -1.9 versus -8.7. The 6-month index doubled to 8.1 from 4.9, with employment at 16.9 versus 14.1, new orders at 33.9 from 35.3 and prices paid at 19.3 from 21.1.
10:34 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Production Index data reported
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10:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar is softer versus the euro
FX Action: The dollar is softer versus the euro in the wake of the pending home sales miss, though the loss was more reflective of a bout of euro gains, which seems to have been led by a surge in EUR-JPY. EUR-USD gained gain about 30 pips in the latest phase, touching 1.1160, since settling back under 1.1150. The move 'closed the gap' left by the dive seen in early Asia-Pacific time. EUR-JPY rallied by around 50 pips, which USD-JPY rebounded from a dip to 122.82. There's not likely to be too much commitment in the market ahead of key U.S. data this week, and with the Greek situation coming to a head.
10:25 EDTWTI crude tumbled 1.3% to $58.80 bbl
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10:15 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 14:00
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to inch back up
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10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales rose 0.9% to 112.6 in May
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10:05 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview
U.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview: The June Dallas Fed index should reveal a headline improvement to -17.0 from -20.8 last month. Producer sentiment looks poised to rebound in June as the shock from plunging oil prices appears to have diminished as analysts discussed in recent commentary. This should allow the ISM-adjusted average to improve to 52 in June after holding at 51 for two months. For a look at all the measures of producer sentiment check out our page.
09:55 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
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09:40 EDTUpside Risk for U.S. June Payrolls:
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09:32 EDTGreek debt breakdown leads to lower open
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09:30 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads shot wider
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09:23 EDTGreek banks to reopen Thursday, Reuters reports
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The CAD is trading slightly firmer against the USD and EUR
FX Action: The CAD is trading slightly firmer against the USD and EUR, despite sub-expectations IPPI data out of Canada and softer oil prices today. USD-CAD is testing the waters under 1.2350 after retreating from the 1.2360-70 area. The 20-day moving average is at 1.2338 and the European AM low is at 1.2304. This will be an expectations-shaping week with regard to the timing of Fed tightening, which should limit directional bias for now. Canadian April GDP data, meanwhile, due tomorrow is expected to rise 0.1%, which would leave GDP on track to rise 1.0% in Q2 following the Q1 contraction, undershooting the BoC's 1.7% estimate from the April MPR.
08:45 EDTFed's Dudley said a September rate hike is still "very much in play,"
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08:42 EDTBofA/Merrill Brazilian economist holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities will open lower
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08:25 EDTFX Update: Dollar majors have settled to steady price action
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are surging on a flight to safety
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07:55 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Index Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI to rise 0.7% m/m in May (median +0.6%) following the 0.9% drop in April. Analysts again have a mixed bag of ingredients for the May IPPI forecast: Gasoline prices jumped 5.5% on a month average basis, the BoC's commodity price index surged 5.5% m/m while the Canadian dollar appreciated versus the USD (on a month average basis). Hence, the forecast risk is mixed, but analysts would lean towards the upside given the run-up in gasoline and commodity prices during the month. The RMPI is seen rising 3.5% in May (median +4.8%) as oil prices were up 9.8% to $59.3/bbl from $54.1/bbl.
07:48 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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07:46 EDTCowen trucking/logistics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Managing Director Jason Seidl, along with Joseph Cowan, CEO of Cowan Systems, John Meyers, President of North East Association of Rail Shippers, Ray Hufnagel, President of Plastic Express and Co-Founder & CEO Andrew McElroy of Transfix discuss the latest volume trends, the impacts from the oil price decline, and expectations for 2Q15 and the full year on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 6 at 10:30 am.
07:25 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to hold a forum
Global Economic Forum is being held in St. Louis, MO on June 29-30.
07:13 EDTConstruction Financial Management Association holds a conference
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07:09 EDTFutures lower after Greek referendum plans announced
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06:56 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility up into Greece shuts banks, imposes capital controls
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 29
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05:53 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro is under pressure
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June 28, 2015
17:27 EDTGreek PM says banks to remain shut, country will reject 'unacceptable' ultimatum
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15:27 EDTEuropean Commission publishes proposals in wake of troubled Greek talks
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June 27, 2015
02:17 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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02:17 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate to be reported at 08:30
June Employment Situation Unemployment Rate will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 5.4%
02:17 EDTFactory Orders to be reported at 10:00
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02:17 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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02:17 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
May Construction Spending will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
02:17 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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02:17 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
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02:17 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
June Consumer Confidence will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 97.4
02:17 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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02:17 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey General Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
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02:17 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
May Pending Home Sales Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.6% for the month
June 26, 2015
18:24 EDTGreek PM Tsipras sets July 5 as referendum on bailout, Bloomberg says
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18:18 EDTGreek PM Tsipras sets July 5 as referendum on bailout, Bloomberg says
16:40 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 12:00
16:40 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 11:30
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16:40 EDT Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George Speech to be released at 12:30
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16:40 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 05:45
16:05 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed Index Preview
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:05 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated yields are closing just off of 2015 highs
Treasury Action: longer dated yields are closing just off of 2015 highs. Europe set the bearish tone for the day as safe haven flows were unwound as investors look to the potential that a resolution will be reached ahead of this weekend's Greek ultimatum. Bund yields finished over 6 bps higher at 0.92% and the Treasury 10-year is following suit with the rate up 6.5 bps to test 2.48%. The selloff wasn't deterred by a still tight repo market where the Bund traded around -0.24%, while the 5-year Treasury was at -0.14%, with the 10-year at 0.11%. Technicals are weighing and argue for further selling as rates hold above key levels. Forecasts for a healthy gain in nonfarm payrolls are keeping bears on track too. On the other hand, month- and quarter-end flows (Barclays' Treasury index extends out 0.10 years), along with an expected rebound in mutual fund and foreign buying are, expected to cap the upside, especially in the shortened trading week.
14:13 EDTAverages mixed in lackluster session
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13:45 EDTU.S. Week Ahead: fireworks on a shortened July 4th week
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12:55 EDTKC Fed hawk George didn't comment on policy
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their surge
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rebounded to 96.1 in the final June report
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10:15 EDTThe June Michigan sentiment bounce
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The USD is lower despite the upward revision
FX Action: The USD is lower despite the upward revision to sentiment data, with the final June consumer sentiment revised to 96.1 from 94.6. USD-JPY ebbed to the 123.80 area from 123.90-pllus levels, while EUR-USD ticked up to the 1.1190-95 region. The dollar's decline is a correction of an earlier run higher.
10:00 EDTFX Action: The USD has rallied
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09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The second release on June Michigan Sentiment should be revised up to 95.0 (median 94.6) from 94.6 in the first release and 90.7 in May. The report has displayed a consistent, though diminishing, tendency toward upward revisions over the past year.
09:44 EDTMarket opens quietly ahead of critical weekend for Greece
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish put selling
Treasury Option Action: some bullish put selling was reported, involving the sale of August 123.00 puts on the 10-year, against the grain of the sharp sell-off with Bunds on Greek deal breakthrough hopes. September 10s are 18.5-ticks lower near 125-00, compared to a 125-20 to 124-31 range.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: stort term bill rates remain very expensive
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are under pressure
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09:00 EDTMixed U.S. inflation readings complicate the Fed's confidence hurdle:
Mixed U.S. inflation readings complicate the Fed's confidence hurdle: WSJ's Hilsenrath revisits (subscription) the Fed's "reasonably confident" threshold for inflation rise, warning that the Fed favored PCE measure is decelerating, even as core CPI creeps up. He points out that "divergence is building between prices measured in the PCE index and those measured in the consumer price index produced by the Labor Department. While core PCE prices have slowed, core CPI prices were up 1.7% in May from a year earlier and they have been rising at around that pace since last August. This divergence is due in part to the different weightings the two indexes place on various sectors. The CPI index places heavy weight on home rental and ownership costs, which are firming. The PCE index places heavy weight on health care costs which have been restrained." Though Yellen has stated that she doesn't need to see a big jump in core inflation before lift-off, oil prices and the firm dollar have made her job tougher.
08:25 EDTFedspeak is due from Kansas City Fed hawk George
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled in the mid-1.23s
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08:10 EDTU.S. equities clung to a modest rebound
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08:09 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 26 at 11 am.
08:06 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up early on a Handelsblatt article
Treasury Action: yields backed up early on a Handelsblatt article that Greek creditors offered 15.5 B euros over the next 5-months in a temporary aid package. The T-note yield had been loitering around 2.40%, but has since probed the 2.43% area as Bunds backed up to 0.87%. In Asia, Chinese equities were under intense selling pressure off some 7-9% across exchanges, while Europe has been comparatively orderly and U.S. futures slightly firmer.
07:08 EDTRBC Capital to hold a conference
Renewables & Utilities Conference is being held in London, England on June 26.
07:06 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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06:58 EDTFutures suggest quiet open
Stock futures are trading right around fair value. There has been no agreement made on the Greek debt situation, with Eurozone leaders scheduled to meet again tomorrow. The lone report on the domestic calendar is the final reading for June on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. With Greece on hold and the domestic economic calendar quiet, the market may be setting up for a typical slow trading day during the summer.
06:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has firmed to near 123.50
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 26
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05:57 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
04:04 EDTWeek of 6/29 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:02 EDTWeek of 7/8 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has continued to trade in a narrow range
FX Update: EUR-USD has continued to trade in a narrow range, slightly south of 1.1200 during most of the pre-Europe session in Asia. The unresolved Greece situation is deterring activity after hopes for a breakthrough were once again scuttled. Germany's Merkel said that Saturday's Eurogroup meeting will be decisive. EUR-USD resistance is at 1.1234 (Wednesday's peak) and 1.1230 (the 20-day moving average). Supports are at 1.1150-55 and 1.1134-35. Elsewhere, the yen has outperformed as the currency rediscovers its inverse correlation with stock markets, which headed south in Asia, led by steep declines in China. USD-JPY logged a four-day low of 123.22, since settling around 123.42. EUR-JPY also traded heavily, though managed to remain above yesterday's three-week low at 137.66. AUD-JPY posted a one-week low. Japanese May CPI came in at 0.5% y/y, as expected and down from 0.6%, while the June Tokyo measure ebbed to 0.3% y/y from 0.5%. Other data were mixed, with income and PCE firm,, but production falling 0.5% m/m in May. The NZD came under pressure after the RBBZ said the currency was trading at "unjustifiable" levels.
June 25, 2015
16:37 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:37 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
Week of 6/24 Fed Balance Sheet Level at $4.495T
16:24 EDTWeek of 7/3 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:24 EDTWeek of 7/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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21:41 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 7/4 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 276K
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain slightly weaker
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased from highs
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12:45 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview:
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12:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar has seen limited direction today
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11:50 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow was raised to 2.1%
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow was raised to 2.1% up from 2.0% on Tuesday, following final Q1 GDP yesterday and personal income today. That continues to close the gap with the consensus of Blue Chip Economists near 2.7%. As the report notes, "The nowcast for second-quarter real consumption growth ticked up from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent following yesterday's GDP release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and this morning's personal income and outlays release from the same agency."
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are in the red
Euro$ interest rate futures are in the red attempting to keep up with the swings on bonds and bunds as the Greek deal continues to get batted back and forth. Firmer personal income and spending, along with tame jobless claims are keeping a September Fed hike on the docket, while 7-year supply also looms. WSJ Fedswatcher Hilsenrath also is hyping the June jobs, FOMC minutes and Yellen semi-annual testimony in early July as likely markers for a subsequent rate hike. The December 2015 contract is 1-ticks lower near 99.435, implying a 0.57% 3-month rate compared to 0.55% late Wednesday after the equity slump, while the deferreds are up to 7-ticks lower out the back-end.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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11:11 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
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10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning in the belly
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning in the belly involved a sale of 4k in September 120.5 calls vs a purchase of 119.5/120.50 call 1x2s. September 5s are 6.7-ticks lower near 118-247 compared to their 119-002 to 118-235 range on Globex.
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending June 19
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10:30 EDTFed Governor Powell discussed payment systems
Fed Governor Powell discussed payment systems and didn't stray into the economy or policy per se, noting that the Fed doesn't have broad authority over the whole financial system to order improvements in payment security. He discussed the breach of the Office of Personnel Management database as one example that the government is working on. See his speech, "Building a Safer Payment System."
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: Merkel says Greek talks seem to be going backward
Treasury Action: Merkel says Greek talks seem to be going backward, in comments to reporters as she arrived for the EU suit. These remarks largely mirror sentiments expressed by German fin min Schauble. The markets remain on edge over Greece. European equities extended modestly further into the red, but are holding off on a full-scale rout as negotiations continue. EUR-USD has also dipped, while Bunds pared losses. Global bonds remain mixed though, wih core rates still slightly elevated while the periphery outperforms.
10:25 EDTU.S. health stocks rallied on the Supreme Court
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields turned choppy below highs
Treasury Action: yields turned choppy below highs following the drop in Markit services flash PMI at the same time the Eurogroup talks were "temporarily-indefinitely" suspended (conflicting headlines) until Greece comes back with another counter proposal, while Greek PM Tsipras subsequently said he's convinced a compromise can be reached. Most see negotiations going well into the weekend, with the real deadline next Tuesday's debt payment deadline. The T-note swung with Bunds, slumping to 2.383% on talks ended headlines before rebounding to 2.41% on more optimistic Tsipras headlines. Likewise, stocks and the dollar are being whipped around. All in a day's work.
10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded softer
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services index fell to 54.8 for the flash June reading
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09:45 EDTMarket opens higher as Greece continues talks
Stock futures were higher during the pre-market trading session, but finished off their best levels. The strength comes as talks continue between Greece and its creditors as a debt deadline quickly approaches. There will be little else for investors to follow today, as the main domestic economic reports have already been released. Markit's service PMI for June and the weekly natural gas inventory report remain to be released. In early trading, the Dow is up 2 points, the Nasdaq is up 7 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
09:30 EDTFireworks watch in early July for Fed:
Fireworks watch in early July for Fed: WSJ's Hilsenrath in his Grand Central blog (subscription) thinks the Fed could signal a September hike based on events early in July: "Fed watchers can mark their calendars with the following dates: July 2, July 8 and July 15. During that span of 13 days next month, the Labor Department will release its next jobs report (Thursday due to July 4th), minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting will be released and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will begin two days of testimony presenting the central bank's semiannual report to Congress. The sequence of events could provide the makings for important disclosures on the central banking beat." A 200k June jobs gain and jobless dip, FOMC minutes and semi-annual Yellen testimony could take the spotlight since she won't be attending the annual Wyoming Fed retreat in August that has in the past been used as a signaling event.
09:20 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook:
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09:20 EDTThe U.S. income report revealed upside surprises
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities have rebounded
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
Treasury Action: yields remained elevated after the firm income/spending readings and still-low jobless claims, which fit with the better underlying picture of the economy. The T-note yield nudged back over 2.40%, up from 2.37% lows in Asia, though stocks are below overnight highs. The 2s-10s spread is holding near +170 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. personal income rose 0.5% with spending up 0.9% in May
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08:45 EDTThe 3k U.S. initial claims bounce to 271k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied after the mix of data, where jobless claims and income were in line with consensus, and consumption rose above forecasts. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1190 from 1.1210, as USD-JPY approached 123.75 from near 123.60. Equity futures maintained gains, as Treasury yields stayed firm.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 3k to 271k in the week ended June 20
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08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following early economic data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the weekly jobless claims data and personal income and spending reports. Initial jobless claims were 271,000, versus expectations for 273,00 first-time claims, while continuing claims were 2.24M, versus a forecast of 2.21M. Personal income rose 0.5% in May, matching the consensus expectation, while spending rose 0.9%, versus the expected 0.7% increase.
08:35 EDTFed's Tarullo stuck to the topic of regulation in early remarks
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08:31 EDTBarclays analyst research team holds an analyst/industry conference call
Barclaycard Commercial Head of Product Development Richard Silvey discusses an overview of the virtual card product, the current state of the commercial payments market, the potential opportunity for the players in the ecosystem on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 25 at 11 am.
08:25 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:25 EDTFedspeak resumes with Fed Governor Tarullo
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08:15 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
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08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady
Energy Action: NYMEX crude was relatively steady overnight, managing $60.43 highs, and a low of $59.86. Increased refined product demand in the U.S. and Europe in particular, has been supportive of crude prices most recently, though over supply, and reports of unsold cargoes of Brent and Nigerian crude have been offsetting factors. RBOB gasoline futures have settled in near $2.055/gallon, coming off of near $2.11 highs following a surprise build in inventories, reported on Wednesday. Natural gas futures are on one-week highs of $2.78/M BTU, ahead of EIA inventory data, which is expected to reveal a small stock build.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly lower in light trading
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: After overnight gyrations, EUR-USD is about where N.Y. traders left in on Wednesday, moving on either side of 1.1200. Greece negotiations have failed to come up with an agreement, leaving markets in limbo once again. Elsewhere, USD-JPY plied a narrow range with 123.50 as the fulcrum, while USD-CAD was steady over 1.2375 on steady oil prices. The U.S. calendar reveals May personal income, PCE and weekly jobless claims, all at 8:30 EDT.
07:47 EDTCouncil on Foreign Relations to hold a discussion on the economy
The C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics holds a discussion entitled, "Conversation on the Economy and Financial Regulation with Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel K. Tarullo on June 25 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:36 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on National Security and International Trade and Finance holds a hearing entitled, "Economic Crisis: The Global Impact of a Greek Default" on June 25 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:27 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
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07:26 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:19 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
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07:15 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
Private Debt Investment Summit is being held in New York on June 25.
07:15 EDTNomura to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTNomura to hold a conference
HK/China Consumer Corporate Day is being held in Hong Kong on June 25.
07:13 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTRBC Capital to hold a symposium
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07:10 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:07 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
2015 Private Company Growth 1:1 Conference is being held in Boston on June 25.
07:06 EDTNational Business Aviation Association to hold a forum
2015 NBAA Regional Forum is being held in Teterboro, New Jersey on June 25.
06:57 EDTFutures higher despite lack of Greek deal
Stock futures are sharply higher despite headlines indicating that the overnight talks between Greek and euro zone officials failed to end with an agreement ahead of further talks planned for today. U.S. investors will be watching the weekly jobless claims data, personal income and spending reports and the weekly natural gas storage change update for clues on the domestic economy.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The euro perversely rallied on news of a Greece no-deal
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 25
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05:51 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The yen has traded higher
FX Update: The yen has traded higher amid a backdrop of risk aversion, with the currency rediscovering its inverse correlation with stock markets. USD-JPY fell to a two-day low of 123.55 while EUR-JPY dipped to a low of 138.41. EUR-USD, meanwhile, oscillated around 1.1200, lacking downside impetus despite the stalemate in Greek negotiations with creditors. There was little fresh news leads of note in Asia. China's PBOC injected cash in an open market operation for the first time since April. Australian job vacancies rose 2.1% q/q in the three months to May, up from 1.4% last. This helped AUD-USD, which lifted to the mid-0.77s, and AUD-JPY also ground out a moderate gain, though both the pair and the cross remained within the respective ranges seen yesterday.
02:01 EDT FOMC Minutes to be released at 14:00
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02:01 EDTWeek of 7/3 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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June 24, 2015
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:03 EDTMarket at session lows in afternoon trading
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13:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 124.37 highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: 5-year yields backed up sharply
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12:55 EDTInvestor Carl Icahn Tweeted that the market is "extremely overheated"
Investor Carl Icahn Tweeted that the market is "extremely overheated" especially high yield bonds and "if more respected investors had warned about the market in '07, analysts might have avoided the crisis in '08." He also sold the last of his Netflix holdings today and believes that "Apple currently represents same opportunity analysts stated Netflix offered several years ago." He stick speaks highly of Netflix management, however. It is possible that these high profile Tweets and follow-up interview on CNBC are adding to the weakness on stocks today as he personally sees risk of a "dramatic pullback" and has issues with fudged GAP accounting results and elevated earnings ratios, which Apple does not. He has not trimmed Apple holdings and in some sense is talking against his own book, given $billions in stock holdings, and if other sectors go down further like in the energy sector he would be a buyer.
12:45 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction outlook: the auction should be well received.
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12:40 EDTU.S. 5-year technicals: sitting right on the 50% retrace level
U.S. 5-year technicals: sitting right on the 50% retrace level of 1.694% drawn from the 1.811% June 11 high and 1.564% June 19 low, the 5-year yield is stuck mid-range for June while awaiting the results of the $35 B auction. The back-up in yield this week could prove attractive for foreign indirect demand as Greece resumes its spat with creditors, but a potential deal breakthrough and proximity of the first Fed rate move in 7-years could keep a floor under the yield. Near-term yield supports are the 1.587% trendline and 1.564% June lows, while resistance is marked by 1.75% psych and 1.811% June highs.
11:59 EDTWeek of 7/3 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was on the soft side
Treasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was on the soft side. The issue was awarded at a high discount margin of 0.076%, 13 bps above the 0.069% at the May sale. Bids totaled $48.6 B for a 3.74 cover, versus 4.01 in May and 3.81 for the $15 B new issue in April. Indirect bidding was strong, however at 56.4% compared to 49.2% previously and 62.7% in April.
11:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to highs
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11:10 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction outlook: the auction is expected to benefit
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11:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is up
FX Action: USD-CAD is up at levels last seen on June 9, peaking at 1.2412, and up from 1.22278 overnight lows. Buying picked up steam on the move over 1.2340-45, which were the earlier tops, and again over 1.2360, the 20-day moving average, and 1.2380, which was Tuesday's high water mark. The June 9 high of 1.2441 is the next upside chart target. CAD losses have come despite the firmer oil price backdrop, as the greenback overall trades on a stronger footing this morning.
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of June 19
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10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in very quiet trade
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09:55 EDTFed VC Fischer discussed supervisory stress testing
Fed VC Fischer discussed supervisory stress testing of large systemic financial institutions at a Stockholm conference on bank regulation, but did not stray into policy or the economy per se. For details, see his speech.
09:34 EDTGreek concerns lead to lower open
Stock futures moved lower during the pre-market trading session when reports surfaced that creditors had rejected Greeceís latest proposal to deal with its financial problems. The marketís rally over the last two day was largely attributed to progress that had been made in putting together a potential deal for Greece with its debt repayment deadline fast approaching. The early U.S. economic reports included the final reading on first quarter GDP, which was bumped up, as expected, but still reflects a small contraction in the first three months of the year. The lone economic data remaining is the weekly energy inventory report, due out at 10:30 am EDT. In early trading, the Dow is down 67 points, the Nasdaq is down 9 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:15 EDTU.S. probe of the $12.7 tln Treasury market
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09:00 EDTThe U.S. Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.2%
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:45 EDTU.S. Q1 GDP was revised up to a 0.2% contraction rate
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar showed little reaction
FX Action: The dollar showed little reaction to the as-expected GDP revision, and remains near 1.1200 versus the euro, as USD-JPY eased a few points to 123.85. Equity futures continue to indicate a modest downdraft at the Wall Street open, while Treasury yields are little changed.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped following the GDP revision
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08:43 EDTCorporate Profits After-tax data reported
Corporate Profits After-tax up 9.0% for the year
08:37 EDTFutures show little reaction to GDP data
Stock futures remain lower following the release of the final estimate of first quarter GDP and personal consumption growth. GDP contracted in the first quarter by 0.2%, matching the consensus forecast, while personal consumption rose 2.1%, versus expectations for 1.9% growth in consumption.
08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $61.00/bbl
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08:20 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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08:14 EDTThe Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control holds a hearing
The Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control holds a hearing entitled, "Cannabidiol: Barriers to Research and Potential Medical Benefits" on June 24 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:34 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:31 EDTHouse Committee on Science, Space & Technology to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are slightly higher as optimism on a Greek deal lessened on comments from PM Tsipras who said creditors rejected the latest proposals. The German Bund yield is down over 3 bps to 0.83% to lead the modest rally in core bonds, with the 10-year Treasury of 2 bps to 2.39%. European and U.S. stocks are modestly lower as the markets are back in wait-and-see mode. Meanwhile, a much weaker than expected German Ifo reading and disappointing U,K. mortgage approvals data also underpinned bonds. The U.S. calendar is light with just revised Q1 GDP due. The MBA reported mortgage applications rebounded 1.6% in the week ended June 19. Supply will also remain significant ahead of quarter end with a $35 B 5-year and a $13 B 2-year FRN on tap.
07:22 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTMorningstar to hold a conference
27th Annual Investment Conference is being held in Chicago on June 24-26.
07:13 EDTNational Investing Banking Association to hold a conference
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum
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06:58 EDTFutures fall ahead of euro summit meeting
U.S. equity futures are lower in early trading despite an optimistic tone that has been evident in media reports ahead of the two day emergency euro finance meeting, which will try and finalize an agreement for Greece and its bailout. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the first quarter GDP report, the personal consumption reading and the weekly energy inventory data.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum
FX Update: The euro remained at the forex market fulcrum, taking a knock in the latest phase after Greek PM disclosed that creditors haven't accepted Greece's latest proposals. EUR-USD dipped back below 1.1200, leaving the day's peak at 1.1235, though the pair remained above the low seen in Asia at 1.1154. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses saw similar price actions. A much weaker than expected German Ifo business confidence reading, which fell to 107.4 from 108.5 and below the median for 108.1, had little impact at the time of release, though retrospectively adds to the more bearish tone of the euro. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a 123.71-124.03 range, below yesterday's one-week high at 124.18. The BoJ minutes from the May policy meeting had little impact.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 24
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05:52 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar is trading moderately weaker
FX Update: The dollar is trading moderately weaker after yesterday's across-the-board gains came to pause. EUR-USD remains at the fulcrum given the prevailing focus on Greece and Fed policy. The pair hit a 16-day low at 1.1334 yesterday and has since settled higher, around 1.1200, still well off yesterday's high at 1.1347. Markets are likely to be cautious today. An agreement between Greece and its creditors needs to be reached in time for Finance Ministers to sign off at the Eurogroup meeting this evening, ahead of tomorrow's EU summit. The deal would then need to be passed by both the Greek and German parliaments. The June German Ifo business sentiment will also be of interest today, with risk seen to the upside in light of the strong German PMI last week. Regarding the Fed, September still seems the best guess for rate lift-off, though it's still not a done deal as indicated by Governor Powell's 50-50 outlook yesterday. Elsewhere, USD-JPY posted a narrow range in Tokyo, near 124.00 but remaining below yesterday's one-week high at 124.18. The BoJ minutes from the May policy meeting had little impact.
02:04 EDTJune Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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June 23, 2015
17:35 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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16:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:09 EDTWeek of 7/4 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow was revised up to 2.0% for Q2
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14:15 EDTU.S. equities are finding some support from lows
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is sitting right on top of its 20-day moving average
FX Action: USD-JPY is sitting right on top of its 20-day moving average of 123.84, after failing to hold the 124 handle earlier. The pairing put in a base at 123.65 before recovering, though with risk taking levels easier and yields off their highs, a revisit of 124 does not look to be in the cards near term. In the meantime, a N.Y. close over the 20-dma might give technically inclined dollar bulls some cover.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied above lows
Treasury Action: short yields steadied above lows following the mixed 2-year auction results, with the current 2-year yield consolidating above 0.67% compared to the 0.692% award rate on the new notes and a range of 0.661-0.686% ahead of the sale. Near-term yield resistance is marked by 0.6935%, with 0.766% above and support from 0.662-0.660% and 0. 609% below.
13:10 EDTTreasury' 2-year auction was well received.
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12:45 EDTTreasury 2-year preview: the auction should be well supported
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12:40 EDTU.S. 2-year technicals: the 2-year yield has pulled back
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12:05 EDTTreasury's bill sales were strong
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11:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are underwater
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10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen from two-week highs
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10:40 EDTThe 2.2% U.S. new home sales climb to a 546k new cycle-high
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly bullish positioning
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating below highs
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to 6 in June
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slid tp 53.4 in June
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10:00 EDTU.S. equities opened marginally firmer
U.S. equities opened marginally firmer after a number of cross-currents swept across the markets in earlier trade. Among them were the headline drop in durables, followed by relatively hawkish Fed Powell remarks and a rebound in yields and the dollar. Those created some headwinds for stocks, though european markets remained bullish, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up around 1%, while Athens is another 4.5% higher on hopes that a Greek deal will be cemented this week. Volatility was the word in China after margin requirements were boosted, followed by a plunge and rebound in stocks there that left the Shenzhen 3.2% higher and the Shanghai Comp up 2.1%, with Japan's N-225 1.7% firmer on the weak yen. Up next are new home sales and the Richmond Fed index.
09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: May new home sales should reveal a 1.0% decline to a 512k (median 520k) unit pace for the month following the 6.8% bounce to a 517k pace in April. Despite Monday's firm existing home sales figures which had the headline pace up 5.1% there is still downside risk from the NAHB decline to 54 in May and the fall in housing starts to 1,036k from 1,165k in April.
09:30 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 221.67 in April
U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 221.67 in April after the same sized rise to 221.06 in May (revised from 221.0). Home prices are up 5.3% y/y.
09:10 EDTMore from Fed's Powell: gradual rate hikes are being built in
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09:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar is on intra day highs
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09:03 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
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09:01 EDTGlobal X Funds July volatility elevated on wide price movement
Global X Funds July call option implied volatility is at 90, September is at 77, December at 65; compared to its 52-week range of 31 to 110, suggesting large near term price movement.
09:00 EDTPeterson Institute for International Economics to hold a discussion
The Peterson Institute holds a discussion of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) groundbreaking study, "Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets" with IMF Deputy Director Ratna Sahay in Washington, D.C. on June 23 at 12:15 pm. Webcast Link
09:00 EDTFed could misfire again on its unemployment projections:
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09:00 EDTToday's disappointing U.S. durable goods figures
Today's disappointing U.S. durable goods figures lowered growth prospects, and analysts trimmed our estimated clip for real equipment spending in the Q2 GDP report to 2.6% from 3.6% after a similar 2.7% pace in Q1. Analysts left our headline GDP estimate at 2.8%. Analysts expect a $35 B Q2 inventory subtraction after a revised $17.0 (was $15.0) B Q! inventory addition. Even with the Q2 inventory drop analysts expect a fairly high $62 B Q2 inventory accumulation rate. Analysts still assume a Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.4% from -0.7%, which incorporates upward revisions of $1 B for factory inventories, $1 B for wholesale inventories, $8 B for private and public construction, and $4 B for net exports. Analysts expect a flat May factory inventory rise with a 0.1% total inventory increase, given today's 0.2% factory durable inventory decline. Analysts assume a 0.5% May factory orders drop with a 0.4% factory shipments increase, given an assumed 0.8% price-led nondurable shipments and orders rise. Analysts saw a 0.1% May durable shipments drop that slightly undershot the flat factory hours-worked figure and the 0.2% durable goods manufacturing rise in the last industrial production report.
08:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 08:45
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08:56 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 08:00
08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTFed governor Powell sees 50-50 odds of September hike
Fed governor Powell sees 50-50 odds of September hike and expects the economy to grow more strongly in the second half after being weighed by the strong dollar, which dented exports and growth. He still wants to see job growth that continued to reduce slack and further tightening of the economy is needed for inflation to rise after being dented by oil prices and the dollar. He believes tests could be satisfied for a rate hike as soon as September. His relatively hawkish outlook appears to have boosted yields once again after their earlier dip on weak headline durables.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved a touch to the softer side
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08:33 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $60.06 into the N.Y. open, after ranging between $59.84 and $60.50 overnight. Improving European data has helped the demand outlook for oil, though this morning's firmer dollar, and the beginnings of what could be a U.S. gasoline glut have offset. RBOB gasoline futures have fallen nearly 8% over the past week, from nearly eight-month highs over $2.1850, to this morning's lows of $2.0140. Natural gas is slightly higher, trading at $2.76/M BTU, but still close to two-week lows.
08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:05 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 1.6% in the week ended June 20
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08:01 EDTSenate Environmental Committee to hold a hearing
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08:00 EDTCFA Society of Chicago to hold a meeting
Meredith Jones, MJ Alternative Investment Research, discusses her book, "Women of the Street: Why Female Money Managers Generate Higher Returns (And How You Can Too) in a meeting being held in Chicago on June 23 at 12:30 pm.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD is down eyeing the 1.1200 level as N.Y. trade gets underway, off nearly 150 points from Monday's close. Better EU PMI data and prospects for a Greek deal this week have done the euro no favors, perhaps as regional yields have moved lower, on unwinding of safe-haven plays. Elsewhere, USD-JPY has maintained a narrow range, though at slightly higher levels, as USD-CAD idles near 1.2350. The U.S. calendar reveals the May durables report at 8:30 EDT, June Markit flash PMI at 9:45 EDT, and May new home sales and the June Richmond Fed index, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:50 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:49 EDTSenate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Measuring the True Cost of Regulations: Lessons from Great Britain and Canada on Implementing Regulatory Reforms" on June 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:48 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
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07:37 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The euro underperformed
FX Update: The euro underperformed as Eurozone yields dropped, and despite above-forecast Euroznoe PMI data and a growing likelihood of Greece resolution with its creditors. EUR-USD clocked a fresh six-day low at 1.1224 and the euro also posted new lows against the yen, sterling and Aussie dollar, among other currencies. European stocks gained sharply, with Greece's ASE leading the way with over a 4% gain, and Eurozone peripheral yield spreads relative to Bunds narrowed sharply. The Greek 10-year yield fell to 10.61%, extending a sharp drop from 12.5%-plus levels that were seen last week.
07:01 EDTFutures higher as market looks to extend rally
Stock futures are suggesting a positive open as the market looks to extend its gains from yesterday. Investors remain watchful on the Greek debt situation as the country was given 48 hours to reach a deal, potentially ending a five month standoff over aid that risks splitting the euro. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the durable goods report, house price index, and new home sales report for clues on our own economy.
06:07 EDT On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 23
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06:01 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is up across the board
FX Update: The dollar is up across the board after a EUR-USD led move with good news on the Greek front transferring as a sell-on-the-fact style response in Asia, although a deal there is no deal yet. EUR-USD dove to a six-day low of 1.1254 after closing in New York yesterday at 1.1338-40. Stops were triggered through 1.1300-10. EUR-JPY is also fell, though the low-so-far is a few pips above yesterday's 139.22 low. USD-JPY, meanwhile, lifted to six-day highs above 123.75, near its 20-day moving average at 123.80. AUD-USD hit a six-day low at 0.7694, finding some support following a firmer than expected flash Markit PMI out of China. The dollar also advanced against sterling and most other currencies. Focus today will remain on Greece, and incoming PMI data out of Europe and the U.S.
June 22, 2015
16:56 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:56 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Greek deal optimism was fanned following a last-minute submission of a partial reforms list to the Eurogroup meeting by the Tsipras government, which sent European equities ramping higher, driving global bond yields higher. Bund yields gapped higher and kept on rising though analysts've heard this song before, but this set the tone early, contributing to a round of curve steepening. The move was compounded on the margin by a 5.1% jump in existing home sales.
15:03 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
14:55 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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14:50 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: May durable goods data is out on Tuesday and should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders following a 1.0% drop in April. Shipments are seen rising by 0.5% with inventories up by 0.2% following respective April figures of -0.2% and 0.2%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 for a third month. There is downside risk to the report from the decline in Boeing orders to 11 from 37 in April and the weak industrial production figures which fell by 0.2% in May.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: supply kicks off Tuesday with the $26 B 2-year auction
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day
Treasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day, catching up to the weakness in Bunds on increased demand for risk, reflected by the 3.8% surge in the DAX. Longer dated Treasury yields are nearing 11 bp gains, with the 10-year hitting 2.36% (seen as nearby support). Selling strength has been the general strategy for over a month and it continues today as the bond market prices for a rate hike in September. Also, curve steepeners seem to be the immediate play. The 2s-10s is out 7 bps from Friday to 170 bps. The 5s-30s is only 2 bps wider, however, at 149 bps. Some are pricing for an upside surprise to inflation, with a potential delay from a Fed rate hike this fall also being considered.
13:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended upward to the highs of the day
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD reportedly tripped stops
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady
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12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are back on the defensive
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11:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it could be a fairly active calendar
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was mixed
Treasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was mixed as the shorter tranche underperformed, perhaps amid the optimism over Greece and the unwinding of flight to quality trades. The 3-month tailed to 0.010% versus 0.005% at the bid deadline, but is the same as last week's rate. There were almost $98.5 B in bids for a 4.16 cover versus last week's solid 4.57, and the 4.31 average. Indirect bidders took 21.2% compared to 15.7% previously and a 22.6% average. The 6-month bill stopped on the screws at 0.080% and is a little richer than last week's 0.100%. There were $101.6 B in bids for a 4.29 cover, above last week's 4.19 but in line with 4.29 average. Indirect bidders accepted 44.7%, almost double the 25.5% previously and a little better than the 42.6% average.
11:35 EDTU.S. equities sustained their bid
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:11 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:45 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Tilting Up in June:
U.S. Producer Sentiment Tilting Up in June: The early-June producer sentiment surveys show signs of an upturn, following the big downswing since November that coincided with a sharp drop in industrial production and GDP growth. Though the Empire State headline fell in June the components were mixed, and analysts saw big headline and component gains for the Philly Fed. Analysts expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys to rise to a still-lean 52 from 51 over the prior two months, and a 2-year low of 50 in March.
10:35 EDTThe 5.1% May U.S. existing home sales bounce to a 5.35 M pace
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10:30 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed early activity
Treasury Option Action: mixed early activity in relatively quiet conditions saw a couple "decent size flows" on 10-year options. These included a purchase of 10k in July 125.5/125 put spreads, thought to be a liquidation (20k bought with Sep 10s near 126-15 Friday), and bullish sale of 2.5k in July 125 puts. There was also a bearish purchase of 8k in week 1 125/124+ put spreads, a bearish sale of 2k in July 126.5 calls and bullish buyer of 1.5k in August 126.5/128 call spreads. September 10s are 22.5-ticks lower near 126-185 compared to their 126-155 to 125-275 range.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed session highs
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The
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10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on North American session highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. May existing home sales rebounded 5.1% to 5.350 M
U.S. May existing home sales rebounded 5.1% to 5.350 M from a revised 2.3% drop in April to 5.090 M (revised from 5.040 M) and the 6.5% surge in March to 5.210 M. This is the strongest since November 2009 when the home-buyer tax credits were expiring. Single family sales climbed 5.6% following the 2.6% decline previously (revised from -3.7%), while condo/coop sales were up 1.6% from unchanged. The months' supply dipped to 5.1 from 5.2 (revised from 5.3). The median sales price rose to $228,700 from $218,700 (revised from $219,400). That's up 7.9% y/y.
10:06 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
May Existing Home Sales at 5.35M vs. consensus of 5.250M
09:45 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: and yields reversed higher once again
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: supply features this week
Treasury Action: supply features this week and the unwinding of safe haven flows has helped build in a concession for the offerings. Treasury is selling $90 B in short and intermediate notes this week, starting with $26 B in 2s (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B 7s (Thursday). When issued yields are higher by several basis points, and the cheapening should help underpin at the margin. However, the uncertainty over Greece and the on-again, off-again flight to quality trades may limit demand The wi 2-year is up 2 bps to 0.675%n which would be the highest of the year, but it solid bidding may be lacking given expectations for a September rate hike. The 5-year is 4 bps higher at 1.64%, while the 7-year is 4.5 bps higher at 2.050%. These also would be year-to-date highs, and their longer maturities might be a little more attractive given the more shallow rate hike trajectory from the Fed's dots.
09:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower led by Bunds
Treasury Action: yields reversed lower led by Bunds, which caught a bid as the Eurogroup meeting ended prematurely amid talk that the ECB will need to pad Greece's ELA by 2.5 B euros after three days of drains over the weekend. The assumption is that surprisingly early end to the meeting and its short duration will suggest "no deal" Greece at this stage, though sources say meetings will resume later in the week. The Bund yield sank from highs near 0.870% to 0.81% and the T-note fell from 2.338% to 2.29%. Some are expressing doubts that the meeting of EU leaders tonight will take place, though there's no evidence to the contrary.
08:45 EDTFedspeak resumes Tuesday with Fed Governor Powell
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08:44 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index 3 Month Moving Average data reported
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3 Month Moving Average at -0.16
08:41 EDTFutures suggest sharply higher open for stocks
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index inched up to -0.17 in May
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08:38 EDTStephens rail/rail equipment analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Rick Webb, CEO of Watco Companies, discuss the current trends within the rail and rail equipment industries on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on June 29 at 10:30 am.
08:36 EDTDA Davidson food and beverage analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:33 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level data reported
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level at -0.17
08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied from overnight lows
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08:10 EDTU.S. equities were bolstered by Greek hopes
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up versus the euro, despite some hope emerging on the Greece front this morning, currently under 1.1340, after peaking over 1.1400. Cable has retreated from highs over 1.5900, as USD-JPY reclaimed the 123 handle. USD-CAD has bucked the trend, falling into 1.2250 as oil prices rebound over $60/bbl. The U.S. calendar is light, with the June Chicago Fed index due at 8:30 EDT, and May existing home sales at 10:00 EDT. Focus will remain on Greek headlines, where the framework for a deal may be in the cards.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: hopes for a Greek deal (again?) are weighing
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07:17 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a meeting
Washington Association of Money Managers holds a discussion entitled, "China: Stagnation, Market Bubble or Great Opportunity" with Derek Scissors, PH.D., American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. on June 22 at 6 pm.
07:17 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Mexico Opportunities Conference is being held in Mexico City on June 22-25.
07:16 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
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07:15 EDTDocker to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTCLSA to hold a tour
Asia Tech Tour travels throughout Seoul, Shenzhen and Taiwan on June 22-26.
07:05 EDTFutures higher on new Greek debt proposals
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06:58 EDTGlobal X Funds July volatility elevated 100
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06:12 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for June 22
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05:54 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
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05:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered above 123.00
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03:05 EDTFX Update: .The euro is trading firmer
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June 20, 2015
15:41 EDTRBC Capital internet analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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