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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 27, 2014
16:12 EDTJuly Wholesale Trade to be released at 10:00
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16:12 EDTWeek of 9/5 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:12 EDTWeek of 9/5 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
15:10 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:00 EDTTreasury Action: the $29 B 7-year is auctioned Thursday
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD broke through its 200-day moving average
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13:25 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year auction was decent, as expected
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields wriggled above lows
Treasury Action: yields wriggled above lows following the solid 5-year leg of the auction series, which went down fairly readily given the bullish gravitational forces in the global bond markets. The current 5-year yield trended lower from Asia highs near 1.65% to dip under 1.63% before settling back near 1.635% again, compared to the 1.646% award rate on the new notes. The 5s-30s spread is inside +150 bp.
12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview:
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12:40 EDTU.S. corporate debt issuance remains on holiday
U.S. corporate debt issuance remains on holiday with just a couple deals in the pipeline as the last week of summer takes its toll. Hardly worth mentioning, but there's a FMS 3-year note pending in the investment grade sector and a couple of high yield offerings from Rooster Energy and SFX Entertainment looking for a home this week. Looks like any scant corporate supply will be completely overshadowed by Treasury supply, starting with the 5-year sector shortly.
12:20 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads gapped tighter
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD had stuck to the bottom of its range
FX Action: USD-CAD had stuck to the bottom of its range, putting in a low of 1.0886, as it runs into sellers on moves above 1.0900. The selling started in Asia overnight, initially on specific EUR-CAD selling , which saw the 20-day moving average breached for the first time since early July. Key will be closing levels, where the 200-day moving average stands at 1.0885.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.031 B in bonds
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11:02 EDTIcahn teases work on 'big deal' in Twitter post
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10:45 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied slightly to $94.15 before falling back to $93.90
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of August 22
Crude oil inventories 2.07M draw vs. consensus of 2.5M draw. Gasoline inventories 960K draw vs. consensus of 1.6M draw. Distillates 1.25M build vs. consensus of flat.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning is growing
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09:36 EDTMarket continues upward momentum
Stock futures traded near fair value throughout the pre-market trading session leading, to a slightly higher open for the broader market. There was little to account for the positive open other than continued momentum following the market’s record setting close yesterday, which saw the S&P close above 2,000 for the first time. Investors will be watching the lone economic report scheduled for release after the open, the weekly Department of Energy inventory numbers, but trading volume is expected to be light once again. In early trading, the Dow is up 16 points, the Nasdaq is up 3 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is back to the bottom
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09:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: a large 5-year position
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09:00 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening trades continue to dominate
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are going with the flow
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08:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
Treasury 5-year auction outlook: the 5-year is a richer this morning on the coattails of a global rally in bonds. The wi is down 3.5 basis points to 1.645%. Though traders would like some concession today, a stop here would be one of the cheapest over the last three years and that could be a plus for the auction. Additionally, the 149 bp spread to the German sovereign should be attractive, particularly amid heightened expectations for further stimulus from ECB's Draghi at next week's policy meeting. As with today, analysts could see some profit taking on curve flatteners, particularly the 5s-30s gap which is at 149 bps, in from 162 bps on August 18. The July note stopped at 1.720% and garnered a 2.81 cover (2.70 average) and a 48.2% indirect bid (45.8%).
08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 32 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 32 cents at $94.18, recovering modestly as Saudi Arabia reported its lowest crude exports in three years in June. In addition, incoming U.S. data has been improving, and has put a floor under prices this week. Still, slowing in China and Europe will likely limit crude's upside price potential.
08:06 EDTCFA Society of San Francisco to hold a discussion
David Garff, President and Chief Investment Office at Accuvest Global Advisors, details the portfolio construction process, the research behind it and how to implement it in a meeting being held in San Francisco on August 27 at 3 pm.
08:05 EDTFCC to hold a meeting of the WRC-15 Advisory Committee
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08:03 EDTSecurities and Exchange Commission to hold an open commission meeting
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08:00 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 2.8%
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar gave back some ground overnight, taking USD-JPY back under 104.00, and EUR-USD up to 1.3188 highs, after it posted trend lows of 1.3153 in Asia. Barrier options at 1.3150 may continue to support, while sellers at 1.3190-1.3200 could provide good levels to reload short positions. The U.S. calendar is light, with just weekly EIA petroleum inventory data on tap at 10:30 EDT.
07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are higher
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07:24 EDTFutures flat as market looks to extend rally
U.S. equity futures are trading at fair value after the market celebrated the S&P's first ever close above 2,000 yesterday. The strength was broad based, as the Dow hit a new intra-day high and the Nasdaq moved to a new 14 ˝ year high. There will be little for investors to work with today as few pieces of significant economic data are due to be released. The weekly Department of Energy Inventory numbers are due out at 10:30 am ET.
07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded lower amid a month-end position jig
FX Update: The dollar traded lower amid a month-end position jig, according to market talk. EUR-USD recovered toward 1.3200 after making a fresh 11-month low at 1.3152 during the Asian session. The euro had dropped across-the-board during the Asian session, led specifically by a large dose of EUR-CAD selling. USD-CAD, meanwhile, fell to the low 1.09s before extending to an eight-day low of 1.0889 in the weak-greenback themed European session, breaching below its 20-day moving average for the first time since Jul-11. USD-JPY pulled back below 104.00 after capping out in Tokyo a pip shy of yesterday's 104.17 peak. While EUR-USD found its feet, the euro was weak elsewhere, making a 10-month low against the Australian dollar, for instance, and a two-week low versus sterling. Data was euro negative, with German import price inflation dipping to -1.7% y/y from -1.2%, and consumer confidence missing the median forecast, while France posted weak business confidence and order book numbers.
06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 27
Globex S&P futures are recently up 1.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.09%, DAX down 0.04%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $94.10, natural gas up 1.18%, gold at $1285 an ounce, and copper down 0.25%.
05:51 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
04:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has ben struggling to hold gains
FX Action: USD-JPY has ben struggling to hold gains above the 104.00 mark, presently trading around 103.90 after capping out in Tokyo at 104.16, one pip shy of yesterday's peak and Monday's seven-month high at 104.27. Good offers are reported above 104.00, related to month-end and the approach of the end of the first half of Japan's fiscal year. Overall, directional bias is pretty limited presently. Friday's brings the usual slew of month-end data releases out of Japan, including CPI, industrial production, and labour market numbers, which analysts expect to be net negative for the yen. (see calendar for forecasts). With the JGB 10-year benchmark yield, presently at 0.50%, hovering near 16-month lows, analysts remain USD-JPY bullish on the yield differential basis, anticipating a move to 105.00. Support is now marked at 103.50, 102.90 and 102.53 (200-day moving average).
02:20 EDTFX Update: The euro has posted fresh lows
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August 26, 2014
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY ran out of juice at 104.17
FX Action: USD-JPY ran out of juice at 104.17, 10 points shy of Monday's trend peak. Japanese backed offers remain in place, into 104.30, while there has been some talk that the BoJ may upgrade economic forecasts at the next policy meeting, which may be keeping yen sellers at bay. Support is now seen at 103.75.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields stabilized following the 2-year
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13:10 EDTTreasury's $29 B 2-year sale was well sponsored
Treasury's $29 B 2-year sale was well sponsored and a little better than expected. The note stopped right on the screws at 0.530%. There were $100.9 B in bids for a 3.48 cover, better than July's 3.22 and the 3.37 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 39.8% compared to 27.0% previously and the 25.9% average. Direct bidders accepted 12.1% versus last month's 14.3%, while primary dealers were awarded 48.0% compared to July's 58.7%.
12:58 EDTWeek of 9/6 Redbook to be released at 08:55
12:58 EDTWeek of 9/6 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: the auction should be ok
Treasury 2-year auction preview: the auction should be ok, but not great. There has been no concession today with the wi trading at 0.535%, though that would still be the second cheapest stop since 2011. Domestic auction demand has been souring in general for much of this year, and quiet summer trading shouldn't help. Additionally, the FOMC is likely to start hiking rates around mid-2015. There should be good support, however, from overseas accounts, especially given the widening spread to European sovereigns and dovish commentary from ECB's Draghi. There's a 54 bp spread to the German Schatz, which trades in negative territory. That dynamic should bring in buyers. There's also a large redemption, and cash will be need to be put back to work. The July auction stopped at 0.544% and garnered a 3.22 cover (3.37 average) and a 27.0% indirect bid (25.9% average). Direct bidders took 14.3%, while primary dealers were awarded 58.7%.
11:55 EDTTreasury's $50 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:55 EDTNASDAQ options market resolved earlier system issues
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11:30 EDTU.S. equities extended gains with European shares
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11:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large bearish position
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11:25 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook: the $29 B auction should go ok
Treasury 2-year auction outlook: the $29 B auction should go ok despite the high probability of a rate hike around mid 2015. And the lack of a concession this morning could hurt at the margin too. Nevertheless, the wi trades at 0.535%, a little richer than July's stop, but would be the second highest award rate in several years. Additionally, the note is cheap on the curve at 187.5 bps versus the 10-year, and 197 bps a week ago. The auction could get some support from profit taking on those trades. Perhaps most importantly, it's at a 7-year wide at 54 bps compared to the German Schatz, where the yield is in negative territory. That should bring in a solid indirect bid. There is a large redemption too, which means some cash could be put back to work. The July auction stopped at 0.544% and garnered a 3.22 cover (3.37 average) and a 27.0% indirect bid (25.9% average). Direct bidders took 14.3%, while primary dealers were awarded 58.7%.
11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $2.275 B in notes
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10:55 EDTTreasury Action: eying up the 2-year yield
Treasury Action: eying up the 2-year yield over 0.50% ahead of the $29 B 2-year auction, sources believe that the wi-yield in the 0.53-0.54% area will get the deal done. That's about the same level as a 10-year JGB and half the level of the Bund, providing some relative value at a much shorter duration. In addition, some relative value against the curve and any profit-taking on curve flatteners could be flattering for the sale. Moreover, ahead of the long weekend some may also find solace in the short-end unless peace breaks out.
10:41 EDTCitigroup automotive analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar trended a bit higher
FX Action: The dollar trended a bit higher after the outsized gain in confidence, though reaction was limited overall. Yields barely budged, while Wall Street remains in positive territory. EUR-USD edged into 1.3190, as USD-JPY moved up to just shy of 104.00.
10:30 EDTThe August U.S. consumer confidence surge
The August U.S. consumer confidence surge to a 92.4 seven-year high from a prior cycle-high 90.3 (was 90.9) in July left a four-month stretch of readings above last year's June temporary high of 82.1. Consumer confidence has risen with consumption and payrolls, unlike other confidence gauges that mostly remain stuck below lean mid-2013 levels. Confidence has enjoyed a 2014 lift from rising equity and home prices, though confidence faces headwinds from a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop, limited credit availability, and disruptions from Obamacare. For other surveys, the Michigan sentiment index dropped to 79.2 from 81.8, versus an 85.1 cycle-high last July. The IBD/TIPP index fell to 44.5 from 45.6, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The RBC-IPSOS index rose to 51.5 from 50.5, versus a 51.8 cycle-high in March that was also seen last June. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped in the first three weeks of August to a 36.5 average from a 37.1 cycle-high average in July, versus a 36.4 temporary high in July of 2013.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2 B to $2.5 B in notes dated from May 31, 2020 through Agusut 15, 2021.
10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index jumped to 12 in August
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched session lows of 1.0949
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence climbed 2.1 points to 92.4 in August
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: consumer confidence defied gravity
Treasury Action: consumer confidence defied gravity though yields did not and remain below earlier highs despite a couple rounds of relatively solid headline data that have driven stocks back into the green. For the T-note the 2.40-2.44% corridor is providing a cap into month-end and ahead of Labor Day, with curve flatteners continuing to anchor the long-end along with the fixed income rally in Europe ahead of next week's ECB meeting. On the lower end of the range, 2.30% August 15 lows are providing a prop. 2s-10s remains narrow inside +188 bp, while 5s-30s is near +147 bp.
10:11 EDTThe Cato institute holds a discussion on corporate inversions
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10:01 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
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10:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning to start the session included the purchase of 5k in Green September 81/82/83 call butterflies. The September 2014 contact is fractionally higher at 99.765, while the deferreds are 0.5-4.0 ticks firmer out the curve. Some $29 B in 2-year supply today should keep a lid on the rate futures, though they could benefit later if the auction draws in decent demand over 0.50%.
09:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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09:40 EDTMarket opens higher after durable goods, Case-Shiller data
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09:25 EDTThe huge July U.S. durable orders surge
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09:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 74 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 74 cents at $94.09, with technical buying noted. Losses stalled under $93 the past few sessions, and sources now expect short covering to test the $95 region near term. The supply/demand picture remains bearish however, so barring geopolitical surprises, gains should be limited.
09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 212.7 in June
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09:15 EDTU.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.97% to 172.3 in June
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09:06 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
June S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index up seasonally adjusted 0.2% month over month vs. consensus of 0.1%.
09:05 EDTU.S. home prices preview:
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08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar is about net unchanged
FX Action: The dollar is about net unchanged after the bog durables jump, after EUR-USD wiggled between 1.3187 and 1.3201, to rest at 1.3195. USD-JPY moved between 103.87 and 104.05, before settling at 103.90. Equity futures are marginally higher, as yields inched a bit higher before stalling.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are moderately firmer
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08:48 EDTBofA/Merrill LatAm economist holds an analyst/industry conference call
Latin America Economist Buscaglia discusses the current state of the economic situation of Argentina on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on August 26 at 10 am.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: the record surge in durables
Treasury Action: the record surge in durables caused a momentary stir higher in yields before quickly topping out. Boeing orders were a big feature as expected and without them durables would have been negative, though June data was revised up. The T-note yield stalled at 2.39% after rising from 2.37% session lows ahead of the report. The 2s-10s spread remains tight at +188 bp, with 2-year supply on tap today.
08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders surged 22.6% in July
U.S. durable goods orders surged 22.6% in July after a 2.7% jump in June (revised from 1.7%). Boeing orders contributed mightily and boosted transportation orders 74.2%, while vehicles and parts increased 10.2%. Of note thought, excluding transportation, orders declined 0.8%. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dipped 0.5% after a 5.4% June gain (revised from 1.4%). Shipments were up 3.3%, with the non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft component increasing 1.5%. Inventories rose 0.5%. The inventory-shipment ratio dropped to 1.61 from 1.66 previously (revised from 1.68). The declines in some of the key components will temper the huge headline gains.
08:36 EDTFutures remain above fair value following durable goods report
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08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:10 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded 0.6%
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries remain higher
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:32 EDTCFA Society of San Francisco to hold a discussion
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07:20 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTMarket hoping to extend recent gains
U.S. equity futures are trading slightly above fair value as the market will look to extend its recent gains. The S&P exceeded 2000 for the first time yesterday and finished at an all-time closing high of 1,997.92. Today investors will be watching the durable goods orders report, the Case/Shiller home price index, a consumer confidence report, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing report for clues about the economy.
07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been trading on a moderately softer footing
FX Update: The dollar has been trading on a moderately softer footing. USD-JPY dipped back under the 104.00 level, making a low of 103.74 after peak at an eight-month high of 104.12 yesterday. EUR-USD lifted back to the 1.3200 area after seeing a fresh trend low at 1.3179 during the Asian session. Reserve managers were reportedly sellers above 1.3200. AUD-USD reclaimed the 0.93 handle. Cable was near net unchanged, at 1.6575 bid. There wasn't much by the way of data or fresh news developments of note.
06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 26
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.69%, DAX down 0.39%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $93.53, natural gas down 0.25%, gold at $1288 an ounce, and copper down 0.70%.
05:51 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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04:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has settled lower after making new highs
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August 25, 2014
20:28 EDTJuly Consumer Credit to be released at 15:00
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:35 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: August consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday and the headline should ease to 87.0 (median 88.8) from the 90.9 headline in July which marked a recent high. Already released confidence measures for the month have weakened with Michigan Sentiment falling to 79.2 in the first release from 81.8 in July.
14:35 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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14:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some straddle (vol) selling
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13:30 EDTTreasury Action: concessions are needed ahead of this week's auctions
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12:55 EDTDollar swap spreads have continued to tighten
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12:05 EDTThe VIX equity volatility index hit a low of 11.27
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12:00 EDTTreasury's $53 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was disappointing
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11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to struggle
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11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mildly lower
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $50 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:45 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to 7.1 in August
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to 7.1 in August after edging up to 12.7 in July. The index has bounced around all year, ranging from July's high to a low of 0.3 in February. The employment component slipped slightly to 11.1 from 11.4, with wages at 23.7 from 18.8. New orders dropped to 2.2 from 13.0. Production declined to 6.8 from 19.1. Prices paid edged up to 26.4 from 25.4, while prices received rose to 9.1 from 7.3. The 6-month general business activity index dipped to 18.7 from 19.8, with the employment component at 24.1 from 20.4, and capital expenditures at 16.3 from 14.8.
10:30 EDTThe 2.4% U.S. new home sales July drop
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10:30 EDTS&P 500 clearance of 2k has the algorithms frothing
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10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD ran into sellers ahead of 1.0980
FX Action: USD-CAD ran into sellers ahead of 1.0980, topping out at 1.0978 earlier in the session. Recall the pairing peaked at 1.0980 on Friday in the immediate aftermath of Yellen's speech, with this level apparently turning into a good area of resistance. Despite the current stock rally, the CAD remains under some pressure, as oil prices remain weak, gold struggles, and the Fed appears to be under more pressure to voice an exit strategy on policy. USD-CAD offers are lined up into 1.1000, with barrier options likely to be defended into the figure. Significant stops could be a factor over 1.1000 however, where April's 1.1053 high will be the next major upside target.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields drifted lower again
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales dropped 2.4% to 412k in July
U.S. new home sales dropped 2.4% to 412k in July after tumbling 7.0% to a revised 422k in June (was 406k). May's 442k was nudged up to 454k. Sales declined in 3 of the 4 regions covered, with only the West posting a gain. The months' supply of homes rose to 6.0 from June's 5.6 (revised from 5.8). There were 205k home for sale on the market versus 197k previously. The median sales price slipped 3.7% to $269,800 from $280,100 in June (revised from $273,500). Prices are still up 1.2% y/y. The headline data are a little disappointing.
10:01 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
July New Home Sales at 412K vs. consensus of 430K
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit servces PMI slid to 58.5 in the preliminary August print
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09:45 EDTU.S. Sentiment Easing, But Still Firm in August:
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09:43 EDTMarket opens higher to extend recent gains
Stock futures drifted during the pre-market trading session at levels well above fair value. The futures action led to a higher open for the broader market as it looks to extend its winning ways. Investors will be watching the new home sales report at 10:00 am ET for additional clues on the housing recovery after recent data releases have shown promising improvement. In early trading, the Dow is up 76 points, the Nasdaq is up 24 points and the S&P is up 9 points.
09:30 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners remain intact
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09:00 EDTA Citi note reportedly warned of a USD long squeeze
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08:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 14 cents
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities benefitted from double-think
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity index jumped to 0.39 in July
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest higher open
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity index. The index had a reading of +0.39 versus expectations of +0.20. Any reading above zero indicates that economic activity is above trend.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar rallied versus most major currencies overnight, gapping higher at the Asian open, and maintaining altitude through the European session. Liquidity was lacking in European dealings, with London out for a bank holiday. Prospects for further ECB easing, along with a growing hawkish contingent at the Fed, should keep pressure on the euro, while a softening economic forecasts in Japan will likely support USD-JPY going forward. The July Chicago Fed index is due at 8:30 EDT, followed by the flash Markit August services PMI at 9:45 EDT. July new home sales are out at 10:00 EDT, with the Dallas Fed index due at 10:30 EDT.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode
Treasury Market Outlook: global bonds are in rally mode following the Jackson Hole meeting with Eurozone yields hitting new record lows with the Bund challenging 0.92% and the 10-year Treasury at 2.377%. A drop in the German August Ifo index to an 11 month, the after-effects of Draghi's speech on Friday, and the resignation of the French government were the general catalysts for bonds. Meanwhile, expectations for additional stimulus from the ECB and hopes the FOMC won't be hiking rates sooner than expected have equities in the green. There's a lot of data on the docket this week, and today's line-up includes July new home sales, the Markit services PMI, and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey. Supply is heavy this week with $159 B in bill and coupon auctions. The NY Fed won't intervene today, but will purchase $2.00-2.50 B in May 2020 to August 2021 notes.
07:27 EDTFutures higher to start final week of summer
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a positive open for the broader market as investors hope the market can extend its winning ways. Volume is expected to be light as the Labor Day weekend nears. Investors will be watching several economic data points today including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the new home sales report, and Markit's PMI report.
06:27 EDTGerman business morale falls for fourth month, Reuters reports
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06:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 25
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06:01 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The USD posted fresh highs against the EUR
FX Update: The USD posted fresh highs against the EUR, JPY and other currencies. EUR-USD dropped below 1.3200 for the first time since last September, making a low of 1.3185, nearly 60 pips down on Friday's closing level. This was a reaction to weekend signals from central bank policymakers at Jackson Hole. Reuters reported that the debate among U.S. Fed policymakers is intensifying with regard to holding interest rates too low for too long, while ECB's Draghi acknowledged the softened growth and inflation outlook, which rekindles speculation of broad based ECB asset purchases later in the year. USD-JPY clocked an eight-month high of 104.27, while EUR-JPY traded fractionally lower. Cable traded at the lowest level since March, at 1.6535. AUD-USD fared better, posting modest gains in rising above 0.9300, supported by a backdrop of generally higher stock markets, reflective of positive risk appetite in asset markets.
August 24, 2014
21:55 EDTMacquarie to hold a tour
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August 23, 2014
15:37 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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15:37 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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15:37 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
July Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.2% for the month
15:37 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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15:37 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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15:37 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
July Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
15:37 EDTAugust Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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August 22, 2014
18:52 EDTAugust Employment Situation to be released at 08:30
16:15 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Fed chief Yellen tip-toed down the monetary balancing beam on Friday in a very academic speech on "Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy." While she lifted the veil a bit on her thinking on labor market slack, she gave little away in terms of the policy outlook, as tightening may be brought forward or delayed depending on the data returns ahead. With no data to consider, focus was entirely on Fedspeak and news that Russia had moved into Eastern Ukraine with its "humanitarian convoy."
15:00 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners could dominate next week
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14:20 EDTPhilly Fed hawk Plosser said the Fed is mired in debate
Philly Fed hawk Plosser said the Fed is mired in debate about the U.S. labor markets and has little power to effect change. He said the Fed doesn't know if can actually improve the margins of the labor market and he would prefer to raise rates too early than too late; i.e. "pretty soon" after communicating that policy change is in the pipeline. The dissenter doesn't like the statement, which has put the Fed in a box. He also expects the Fed to formally revise its exit strategy in the next meeting or two. Predictably hawkish, his words are falling on deaf market ears after Yellen's balanced speech.
13:55 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: Fed Chair Yellen didn't provide any definitive clues on rate hikes in her comments, and didn't materially alter general policy outlooks as far as the markets are concerned. What she did leave us with is what analysts already had -- the policy path is data dependent. Of course there is a big array of data from which to choose as analysts try to assess the degree of labor market slack and try to determine the extent of cyclical versus structural forces. It's still looking like rate lift-off will occur around mid-2015, maybe earlier if the recent trend of improved growth is sustained. This week's Survey results suggest that will be the case. Of interest in the coming week will be durable goods, where the Survey median points to a 5.5% increase, with significant upside risk thanks to Boeing orders, as reflected by the 35.0% high estimate. Other key reports ahead show Q2 GDP should post a still strong 3.9% rate of growth, down only slightly versus the Advance report. The Survey also suggests gains in home sales and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the August jobs report should reveal a 213k increase in payrolls and a 6.1%.
12:20 EDTFed dove Lockhart: anticipation of inflation alone is not sufficient
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12:20 EDTSF Fed's Williams said the unemployment rate is still too high
SF Fed's Williams said the unemployment rate is still too high, in a Bloomberg TV interview. The dovish voter added he thinks a very accommodative policy is still what's needed. He doesn't see the risk of an inflation overshoot. Rate lift-off should begin around mid-2015, he reiterated, but the timing will remain data dependent. Reverse repos, one of the tools expected to be used in the normalization process, should be limited in scope. There's nothing new from Williams, but remember he is a voter in 2015.
12:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took out the April high of 104.13
FX Action: USD-JPY took out the April high of 104.13, peaking at 104.19, though has since edged back under the figure. A variety of sellers were noted into the highs, including Japanese exporters, and options related interest. The volatility seen at 10:00 was partially from Yellen's comments, though 1.04 expires rolled off at the same time, which likely led to the bulk of price action.
12:10 EDTPIMCO's Gross Tweeted: "Yellen was a 2-handed economist today
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12:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish flows
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11:23 EDTBofA/Merrill Russian & CIS economist holds analyst/industry conference call
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11:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields are backing up to highs
Treasury Action: yields are backing up to highs again despite Yellen's best attempt to be a 2-handed economist on the complex topic of labor market slack. She even went so far as to quote the FOMC statement and reiterate that any move is data-dependent - could tighten sooner if the economy picks up faster or delay if it slows down. Curiously, the move up in yield back toward 2.44% pivot on the T-note seems to be led by a jerk higher in the dollar, which has cleared 104 vs the yen and hit 1.3220 vs the euro. The USD index has posted a fresh 11-month high of 82.41. No doubt this is the favored trade by those looking for more dovish hints from ECB's Draghi later at 14:30 ET. Stocks have really just rotated in place.
10:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially slipped
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10:20 EDTFed Chair Yellen's speech was fairly neutral and very "two-handed"
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields jerked to highs
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10:15 EDTFed Chair Yellen's speech was relatively neutral and very "two-handed"
Fed Chair Yellen's speech was relatively neutral and very "two-handed" in terms of the policy course. She said there's no "simple receipe for appropriate policy." She indicated the economy is improving and the FOMC now is questioning the degree of slack in the economy, adding that assessing the latter has become more difficult. She continued to appeal to a variety of labor market indicators for assessing slack. She also repeated that faster progress toward the employment and inflation goals could speed up rate hikes, but if progress is disappointing, then the accommodative stance could remain intact for longer -- that is, the Fed is data dependent. She indicated cyclical and structural factors have both affected the labor market.
10:06 EDTYellen says economy 'getting closer' to Fed's objectives
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09:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 67 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 67 cents at $93.29, with the recent supply/demand imbalance continuing to weigh on prices. The API reported on Thursday that U.S. oil production is at a 28 year high. Meanwhile. OPEC continues to pump at elevated levels, while concerns over slowing growth in China and Europe should keep crude prices pressured. Sources look for a downside target of $90 in the coming week.
09:45 EDTA couple of papers on labor at Jackson Hole
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09:38 EDT Market has uneventful open
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09:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: it's all about Yellen and Draghi today
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning included the sale of 5k in Green December 76 puts. That said, trading conditions in the underlying rate futures are pretty quiet heading into Yellen's speech, which is embargoed for 10 ET and will contain no Q&A. The lead September 2014 contract is a quarter point lower near 99.7625, while the deferreds are 0.5-1.0 ticks lower.
09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD sprinted up to 1.0980
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities were dented by Russian convoy acrimony
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08:31 EDTEuropean Central Bank President Draghi to speak at symposium
European Central Bank President Draghi to speak at the Federal Reserve's Annual Symposium: Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics being held in Jackson Hole, WY on August 22 at 2:30 pm.
08:30 EDTMore from Bullard: he cheered the Fed's actions on rescuing the economy
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08:20 EDTStL Fed's Bullard said a more hawkish slant doesn't have to be bad news
StL Fed's Bullard said a more hawkish slant doesn't have to be bad news for the economy in referring to the tone of the FOMC Minutes. The markets have been trading more dovishly than the median of the Committee's SEP would suggest. Why should the market price for the very lowest end of the Fed's dot forecasts. The economy has been improving more quickly than expected. Bullard is still seeing rate lift-off around the end of Q1, which would be the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. He believes the Fed has been too pessimistic on unemployment. He argued at the last policy meeting about characterization labor underutilization as "significant." These comments are consistent for the more hawkishly inclined Bullard, who is not a voter this year or next.
08:12 EDTFederal Reserve Bank Chairperson Janet Yellen speaks at symposium
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08:10 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
Canada Retail Sales Preview: Analysts expect retail sales to expand 0.5% m/m in June (median +0.4%) after the 0.7% rise in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.3% m/m in June (median +0.4%) after the 0.1% move higher in May. Gasoline prices marched higher, which should again lift gasoline station sales. An as-expected gain in sales would underpin the Q2 GDP rebound scenario, but not deter the BoC's focus on the less certain growth outlook this year amid serial disappointment globally and in Canada.
08:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
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07:58 EDTSecurity Traders Association of Portland to hold a conference
74th Annual Pacific Northwest Security Traders Association Conference to be held in Stevenson, Washington on August 22-24.
07:57 EDTWeek of 8/25 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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07:57 EDTWeek of 9/3 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher globally
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTFutures lower ahead of Yellen keynote speech
Stock futures are trading slightly lower following reports that a Russian convoy had crossed the Ukrainian border without permission. Investors hope the market can continue its winning ways after the S&P hit a new all-time high, the Nasdaq reached a new 14 year high and the Dow closes in on a new record. Janet Yellen will deliver the keynote speech in Jackson Hole today at 10:00 am and investors will be listening for clues about any changes in monetary policy.
07:30 EDTFX Update: Directional impetus has been limited
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06:05 EDTFX Action USD-JPY has ebbed below 103.70
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05:40 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 22
Globex S&P futures are recently up 00.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.30%, DAX down 0.36%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $93.59, natural gas up 0.87%, gold at $1281 an ounce, and copper up 0.58%.
05:14 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been trading softer
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August 21, 2014
17:25 EDTFed hawk Plosser said it's unwise for wages to be the policy centerpiece
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTWeek of 8/29 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00
16:32 EDTWeek of 8/29 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:32 EDT Productivity and Costs to be released at 08:30
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16:32 EDTAugust ISM Non-Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
16:32 EDTJuly International Trade to be released at 08:30
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16:32 EDTWeek of 8/30 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
16:32 EDTAugust Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30
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15:40 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:00 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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13:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Bank of America upped the 10-year to $3 B
U.S. corporate bond update: Bank of America upped the 10-year to $3 B and also outlined a $1 B 3-year offering, along with the $500 M 3-year FRN. This brings the issue to $4.5 B, and the week's volume closer to $6 B.
13:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Bank of America announced a 3-pronged deal
U.S. corporate bond update: Bank of America announced a 3-pronged deal shortly after agreeing to pay a $16.65 B fine. On the docket are 3-year and 10-year notes, and a just added 3-year FRN. The 3-year fixed note is expected to be at least $1 B in size, with the FRN at least $500 M. Investment grade issuance remains thin this week, totaling less than $2 B, excluding the BoA offering.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: muted reaction to the tame TIPs reopening
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13:10 EDTTreasury's $13 B 5-year TIPS reopening was tepid
Treasury's $13 B 5-year TIPS reopening was tepid, as feared. The issue stopped at -0.281% versus -0.284% at the bid deadline and -0.213% at the new issue. There were $39.7 B in bids for a 2.48 cover, down from 2.70 in April. Indirect bidders supported the offering, taking 56.3%, not too far below the record high 58.4% in April.
12:35 EDTTreasury 5-year TIPS auction:
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12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has remained quite resilient
FX Action: USD-JPY has remained quite resilient, briefly dipping to session lows of 103.60 earlier, before moving back to 103.84 highs. One factor could be options related, with talk making the rounds of a half-yard of 104.00 strike expiries for Friday. Buying into dips has been in vogue through the session, as risk levels remain yen negative.
12:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning in the belly
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12:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options are marginally firmer
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11:55 EDTSF Fed's Williams stressed Fed rate lift-off timing remains data dependent
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.214 B in notes
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11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged package of note auctions
Treasury announced a $93 B 3-pronged package of note auctions for next week to complete August offerings, unchanged from July. This includes $29 B in new 2-year notes (Tuesday), $35 B in 5-year notes (Wednesday), and $29 B in 7-year notes (Thursday). A $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was also detailed (for Wednesday). The debt managers also announced a $53 B 3- and 6-month bill for Monday. The size was shaved by $1 B from this week's auction, with the 6-month tranche reduced to $24 B from $25 B previously. The front-end supply could weigh additionally on Treasuries which have been under pressure by the more hawkish FOMC Minutes.
11:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
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10:50 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
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10:45 EDTU.S. equities made another stab higher
U.S. equities made another stab higher in the wake of the better than expected data round, while there were also reports from Russia's Information Agency (RIA) that Russia has "no plans" for an incursion into the Ukraine, according to a Defense Ministry source. That said, the Philly Fed components were mostly weak and undermined the stronger headlines. Treasuries also road out the ostensibly firmer data reportedly thanks to ongoing Japanese demand on dips. The dollar flinched before finding fresh equilibrium. Gold remains sharply lower near $1,277 compared to the $1,291.54-1,273.95 session range. The VIX equity volatility index is above session lows of 11.73.
10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed August surge to a 28.0 three-year high
The Philly Fed August surge to a 28.0 three-year high extended the July pop to 23.9 from 17.8 in June, versus a -6.3 fifteen-month low in February. Yet, the ISM-adjusted Philly Fed measure fell to 55.5 in August, after a July surge to a 59.5 cycle-high from 54.1 in June, versus a 49.0 nine-month low in February. The divergence reflected big declines in new and unfilled orders as well as shipments and deliveries that left a more mixed report than implied by the headline surge. The big July vehicle assembly rate pop, and likely ensuing August drop-back, likely fed both the producer sentiment upswing in July and divergent August moves, both within today's report and relative to last Friday's Empire State drop to 14.69 after surging to 24.60 in July, as well as a continued tightening in initial claims. Analysts expect an unchanged Richmond Fed at 4.0, a Dallas Fed up-tick to 13.0 from 12.7, an ISM drop to 55.0 from 57.1, and an ISM-NMI decline to 56.5 from 58.7. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to slip to 55 in August from a 56 cycle-high in July that was also seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 through Q2 and 52 through Q1.
10:30 EDTGas Inventories 88 Bcf build vs. consensus of 84 Bcf build.
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10:25 EDTFX Action: After retreating from overnight highs
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.05 B to $2.50 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.05 B to $2.50 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024. The buyback should help underpin the belly of the curve. Yield have dipped from overnight highs with the 7-year at 2.08% and the 10-year at 2.425%.
10:20 EDTU.S. leading indicator rose 0.9% to 103.3 in July
U.S. leading indicator rose 0.9% to 103.3 in July versus June's 102.4 (revised from 102.2). This is the largest monthly increase since March, and is a sixth straight monthly gain. It's also the first 103 "handle" since October 2007. Seven of the 10 indicators increased, pace by the interest rate spread (0.27%), building permits (0.24%), and jobless claims (0.24%). The remaining three components made negative contributions, paced by the workweek (-0.13%).
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. July existing home sales rose 2.4% to 5.150 M
U.S. July existing home sales rose 2.4% to 5.150 M after a same-sized increase to 5.030 M in June (revised from 5.040 M). This is a fourth consecutive monthly gain and is a 10 month high. Single family sales increased 2.7%, while condo/coop sales were flat. The months' supply of homes was steady at 5.5 months. The median sales price increased to $222,900 versus $222,000 (revised from $223,300), and is up 4.9% y/y. Data are better than expected and could start to tame Fed fears over the housing market.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained pinned down
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10:10 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index climbed 4.1 to 28.0 in August
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index climbed 4.1 to 28.0 in August after popping up 6.1 points to 23.9 in July. This is the highest since the 34.7 from March 2011. However, the components were mixed and belie the headline strength. The employment index slid to 9.1 from 12.2 (the latter was the best since October 2013). The workweek edged up to 13.3 from 12.5. New orders were more than halved to 14.7 from 34.2. Prices paid dropped to 24.9 from 34.7, while prices received crumbled to 4.2 from 16.8. The 6-month business conditions index surged to 66.4, however, from 58.1, with employment at 24.7 from 29.1, and capital expenditures at 17.5 from 18.9.
10:02 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:02 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
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09:55 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI climbed to 58.0 in August
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09:50 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning on a short 10-year
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09:34 EDTMarket hoping to extend winning ways
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09:34 EDTJPMorgan automotive analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Auto Analyst Brinkman provides an industry update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on August 21 at 10 am.
09:32 EDTJPMorgan LatAm telecos/education analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTTreasury 5-year TIPS auction:
Treasury 5-year TIPS auction: Treasury reopens $16 B in 5-year TIPS this afternoon. Yields on shorter dated issues are a little higher with the April 5-year at -0.294% versus -0.33% yesterday, which compare to the award rate of -0.213%. The updraft in yield should provide some underpinning to the auction, but in the midest of summer doldrums and with inflation still quite benign, demand should be lacking. The April auction saw a 2.70 cover and a 58.4% indirect bid. Analysts look for overseas accounts to again support this auction.
09:24 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to hold symposium
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08:50 EDTThe 14k U.S. initial claims drop to 298k
The 14k U.S. initial claims drop to 298k in the August BLS survey week trimmed the prior 22k bounce to 312k (was 311k) from 290k at the start of the month to leave a five-week stretch of oscillations around lean claims since the depressing effect of auto retooling that left a 279k mid-July cycle-low. Claims are averaging 303k thus far in August, which is above the tight 296k July figure but well below prior averages of 315k in June and 312k in May. Today's 298k August BLS survey week reading sits below the tight 303k July figure, as well as previous BLS readings of 314k in June and 327k in May. Analysts assume a 210k August payroll gain that sits between the 209k July increase and the 214k average rise of the last twelve months, though analysts may see some August give-back of July strength for the goods-sector data as a temporary boost from firm July truck assembly rates is unwound. Payrolls face ongoing upside risk from tight claims, a firm Q3 producer sentiment and ADP trajectory, solid vehicle assembly rates, and an ongoing consumer confidence climb back above mid-2013 levels.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are on the rise again
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: bonds were not bothered
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off the slightly better than consensus jobless claims, with EUR-USD trading just under 1.3270, and USD-JPY hovering near 103.80. Trade will likely turn a bit more cautious going forward, where eyes will be on Yellen's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, and on the weekend, where some position paring may be in store in light of geopolitical risks.
08:43 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dropped 14k to 298k in the week ended August 16
U.S. initial jobless claims dropped 14k to 298k in the week ended August 16, versus 312k previously (revised from 311k). That pushed the 4-week moving average to 300.75k versus 296k (revised from 295.75k). Continuing claims fell 49k to 2,500k in the week ended August 9, versus 2,549k (revised from 2,544k). The report is consistent with ongoing improvement in the labor market, and the initial jobless claims figure takes on greater importance as it coincides with the BLS survey week.
08:34 EDTFutures suggest higher open following claims data
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 68 cents at $92.78/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 68 cents at $92.78/bbl. The October contract takes over as front month, following the expiry of the September contract on Wednesday. Prices have continued their move lower, with faltering demand and ample supply weighing. Softer China PMI data, a stronger dollar and upped OPEC and U.S. output should keep the pressure on for now.
08:15 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended August 16 are expected to see a 7k decrease to 304k (median 298k) as claims remain lean after the gyrations seen over the past three weeks. The 21k U.S. initial claims bounce to 311k in the second week of August more than reversed the big 13k drop to 290k (was 289k) at the start of August to leave the measure well above the 279k mid-July cycle-low. Though claims are reversing some of last month's retooling-hit, levels remain tight relative to the pre-July trajectory.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to lower
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:19 EDTFutures higher as market looks to extend rally
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06:50 EDTEuro zone PMI fell in August, AP reports
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended gains
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06:43 EDTChina PMI hit three month low, Reuters reports
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 21
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05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar will open in Europe strongly
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August 20, 2014
18:02 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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15:50 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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15:45 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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15:35 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 16 are expected to see a 7k decrease to 304k (median 298k) as claims remain lean after the gyrations seen over the past three weeks. The 21k U.S. initial claims bounce to 311k in the second week of August more than reversed the big 13k drop to 290k (was 289k) at the start of August to leave the measure well above the 279k mid-July cycle-low. Though claims are reversing some of last month's retooling-hit, levels remain tight relative to the pre-July trajectory.
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTFOMC Minutes takeaway:
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14:45 EDTMany FOMC members say stimulus may have to be removed sooner than expected
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14:20 EDTJuly Factory Orders to be released at 10:00
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14:20 EDTWeek of 8/30 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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14:20 EDTAugust ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:20 EDTWeek of 8/30 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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14:20 EDTWeek of 8/29 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC Minutes: "many" officials saw a rate hike sooner than expected
FOMC Minutes: "many" officials saw a rate hike sooner than expected thanks to the improvement in the labor market, with the job market "noticeably closer" to normal. But, not surprisingly, there were differing opinions on the degree of labor slack. "Most" on the Committee also believed downside inflation risks had diminished. Some participants were more uncomfortable with the forward guidance language, namely Plosser for one who dissented. Financial vulnerabilities were also well contained. While the bond market is giving a bearish nod to the Minutes given the fact that "many" on the Committee could see the first rate increase sooner, that view is what analysts expected at the time of the July 30 policy meeting. Analysts'll look for Yellen's speech on Friday to offer a counter to the hawks.
14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied broadly
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields jerked higher on the FOMC minutes
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14:05 EDTFed minutes discuss removing monetary policy quicker than expected
Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting state, "Many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated."
13:50 EDTTreasury Action: Verizon's hefty $13.3 B debt exchange
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13:30 EDTIs China's Economy Slowing?
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13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: a good mix of positioning
Treasury Option Action: a good mix of positioning was reported into the FOMC minutes, including the bearish purchases of 7k in October 124+ puts, 5k in September 125+/126 put spreads and 2.5k in December 123 puts. On the bullish side were purchases of 5k in September 127 calls and 10k in September 126/October 125+ call diagonals (buying Oct). There was also a bearish sale of 1.5k in September/December 125 calls. The September 10-year future is 3.5-ticks lower near 126-035, compared to range of 126-095 to 126-020.
13:00 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are slightly weaker
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12:40 EDTU.S. equities inched reluctantly higher
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12:32 EDTBarclays commodities-energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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12:02 EDTBofA/Merrill LatAm economist/strategist holds analyst/industry conference call
Chief Brazilian Economist & Strategist, along with Arko Advice's Political Consultant, Murillo Aragao, discuss the prospects for the presidential elections, after the death of Eduardo Campos and the Datafolha opinion poll showing Marina Silva's strong showing, on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on August 21 at 9 am.
10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied slightly
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of August 15
Crude inventories 4.47M draw vs. consensus of 1.75M draw. Gasoline inventories 585K build vs. consensus of 1.55M draw. Distillates 960K draw vs. consensus of 300K draw.
10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: hefty block trades
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09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.0962
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09:32 EDTMarket lower ahead of Fed’s minutes
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large bearish trade
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are the trade ahead of the FOMC Minutes
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities are in shallow negative territory
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 91 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 91 cents at $95.39/bbl, recovering some of Tuesday's losses, reportedly as traders book profits ahead of the September contract's expiry this afternoon. Prices touched a seven-month low of $94.26 yesterday. October crude, which will take over as front-month on Thursday, and where the bulk of volume is now traded, stands at $93.24.
08:00 EDTCanada Wholesale Sale Preview
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 1.4%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:24 EDTFutures quiet as investors await FOMC minutes
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended gains against the euro and yen
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 20
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05:48 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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05:45 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has logged an 11-month low
FX Action: EUR-USD has logged an 11-month low of 1.3285 after breaching 1.3300 and last November's 1.3295 low. The move reflects broad dollar strength, with USD-JPY, for instance, having concomitantly made new four-moth highs above 103.30. The dollar is unpinned following net positive U.S. data yesterday and comes ahead of the FOMC minutes from the late July meeting, due later today, which may show the hawkish voices at the Fed strengthening a little. French President Hollande also said today that the EUR-USD level remains is in the process of being adjusted, and that the ECB is aware that the euro is overvalued, while Eurozone construction output dropped 0.7% m/m in June after already falling 1.4% m/m in May. The Ukraine situation, meanwhile, along with the impact of sanctions against Russian on the Eurozone economy (Russia is the Eurozone's fourth largest trading partner), and the Eurozone's disinflation problem, should collectively maintain EUR-USD's bearish bias, even if the is Fed taking its time to an eventual policy tightening. Analysts continue to anticipate an eventual test of 1.3000.
02:40 EDTFX Update: The USD rallied again
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August 19, 2014
21:30 EDTJapan's exports grew 3.9% y/y in July
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16:21 EDTJuly Construction Spending to be released at 10:00
16:21 EDTAugust ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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15:47 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTCleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.1% in July
Cleveland Fed's median CPI rose 0.1% in July with the 16% trimmed mean also up 0.1%, in line with the BLS measure. On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 2.2% y/y, versus a 2.3% y/y increase in June, with the trimmed mean up 1.9% y/y, unchanged from June. The BLS' measure showed a similar slowing in the headline y/y figure to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% y/y, and a steady pace for the "core" reading at 1.9% y/y.
14:20 EDTFOMC Minutes preview: the Minutes will be a mixed bag
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14:00 EDTU.S. equities extended their lead
U.S. equities extended their lead even as Apple cracked $100/ps and kept on climbing, up 1.3% to $100.45, which helped prop up stocks 0.3-0.4%, though blue chips are pacing tech for a change. Within the Dow, Home Depot remains the clear winner, up 6.3% followed at a distant second by UnitedHealth at +1.5% and AMEX at +1.0%. At the bottom of the heap are communications companies AT&T -0.5% and Verizon -0.4%. This is keeping yields and the dollar propped up for now.
13:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads are backing out at the long-end
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12:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy put buying
Euro$ interest rate options: heavy put buying was reported by a suspected Swiss-based fund, who reportedly bought 20k in bearish Short September 90/91 put 1x3s, buying the 1-leg. There was also a bullish purchase of 10k in Blue September 75/77 call spreads. Euro$s have pared some of their losses, but are still down 0.5-2.0 ticks.
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has made new intra day highs
FX Action: USD-CAD has made new intra day highs of 1.0938, moving higher despite the better risk backdrop (though softer oil and gold prices have offset), as USD gains remain broad so far on Tuesday. Some residual corporate buying has been reported, with those missing the boat under 1.0900 stepping in this morning. Light stops are noted over 1.0940, though two-way interest is seen from 1.0950 to 1.0980.
11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is making slow but steady progress
FX Action: USD-JPY is making slow but steady progress higher, now peaking at 102.87, as it grinds through noted Japanese exporter offers. The positive risk backdrop has allowed the pairing to add to Monday's modest gains, with the near term target set at 103.00. There are liable to be a good number of profit taking related sellers into the figure, though stops are not noted until 103.10, above the July 30 peak.
11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were well received
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.285 B in Treasury notes
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.25 B to $0.35 B
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10:25 EDTU.S. equities opened higher
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09:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed trade
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09:35 EDTThe 0.1% July U.S. CPI headline and core price gains
The 0.1% July U.S. CPI headline and core price gains modestly beat estimates, thanks to a 0.4% food price rise alongside the expected 0.3% July energy price drop. For commodities, CPI food prices haven't fallen since May of 2013, though the July energy price drop capped a three-month string of increases. Analysts expect 0.1% July PCE chain price gains for the headline and core that match today's CPI gains, which rounded-up from respective 0.091% and 0.096% increases. Analysts still expect a 0.1% July nominal PCE rise that matches last week's July ex-auto retail sales rise, though analysts now expect a flat (was 0.1%) "real" figure. Our 3.2% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes 3.5% (was 3.3%) nominal and 2.2% (was 2.4%) "real" consumption growth, with a 1.2% (was 0.9%) chain price gain. Last week, analysts saw a 0.1% July PPI increase with a 0.2% core price rise, alongside SOP July PPI gains of 0.1% for both. Analysts saw core price resilience but headline oil and food price declines in last week's July trade price report.
09:34 EDTEconomic data helps fuel higher open
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09:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 30 cents
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09:20 EDTThe hefty U.S. July housing starts and permits bounce
The hefty U.S. July housing starts and permits bounce, after a diminished drop over the prior two months thanks to upward revisions, took the edge off the array of downside housing sector surprises through Q2 that left downgrades in most forecasts of the 2014 recovery. The housing rebound more generally remains anemic, likely due to ongoing mortgage market dysfunction, consumer caution, and a reduction in distressed sales, though today's report provided some welcome good news for the sector. housing starts under construction, which drive new home construction, surged in July after defying Q2 restraint and bad weather in Q1. Analysts saw a 2.9% July surge that followd gains of 1.2% (was 1.1%) in June and 1.6% (was 0.9%) in May. There hasn't been a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Analysts still expect GDP growth of 3.2% in Q3, after a downward bump in Q2 growth to 3.8% from the 4.0% advance figure, with residential construction growth of 5% in Q3 after a 7.5% Q2 clip. For nonresidential construction, analysts expect growth of 4% in Q3, after a likely big boost in Q2 growth to the 9% area from 5.3%.
09:10 EDTU.S. housing starts surged 15.7% to a 1.093 M pace in July
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: policymakers aren't likely to be swayed much
Fed Policy Outlook: policymakers aren't likely to be swayed much by this morning's inflation and housing data, hence leaving Yellen with a relatively dovish leaning when she speaks on Friday from Jackson Hole. Remember, the FOMC said the "recovery in the housing sector remains slow," and while the July rebound in starts will be good news, it's one months' data and most Committee members will want to see more sustained gains. Concurrently, CPI remained tame with the headline y/y pace even slowing slightly. And perhaps most importantly, real earnings were unchanged, and lack of wage growth will remain a thorn in the Fed's side.
09:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
FX Action: The dollar rallied initially after the mix of data, where better housing data drove the move. EUR-USD fell to trend lows of 1.3319, falling from 1.3355, as USD-JPY rallied to 102.79. Firmer yields and another Wall Street rally lifted the greenback, as a relatively calm geopolitical backdrop has helped sentiment as well. EUR-USD barriers are noted at 1.3300, and will likely be defended, though significant stops are seen under the figure.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities extended their rally
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08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped up from lows
Treasury Action: yields snapped up from lows following the housing starts surge and upward back revisions, which put a steeper trajectory back on the housing sector, while core CPI was tame. The T-note yield based at 2.36% session lows ahead of the reports and then cleared 2.38% again, with the 2.40-2.44% area remaining a cap so far on the upside and 2.30% the 14-month low below. The 2s-10s spread is trading near +196 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts surged 15.7% to a 1.093 M pace in July
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08:40 EDTU.S. CPI rose 0.1% in July, with the core rate up 0.1%
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08:36 EDTFutures move higher following release of economic data
U.S. equity futures moved higher following the release of the Consumer Price Index report. The data showed that consumer prices rose 0.1% overall in the month of July versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the core reading showed an increase of 0.1% versus the expected increase of 0.2%. Housing starts increased 15.7% versus the expected increase of 8.1% while building permits rose 8.1% versus the expected increase of 2.8%.
08:32 EDTHousing Starts data reported
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08:20 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:18 EDTWilliam Blair diagnostic services analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 1.3%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:53 EDTCitigroup housing analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:46 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
Week of 8/16 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales down -1.3% for the week
07:24 EDTMarket looks to extend gains
U.S. equity futures are trading just slightly above fair value following yesterday’s big advance. Easing political tensions and fundamental stability in the marketplace have caused investors to become more optimistic. As a result, the market is on track to have its best performance since February. Today investors will focus on reports on consumer prices, housing starts, and building permits.
07:19 EDTDallas Federal Reserve Bank President to speak at conference
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher to speak at the 38th Annual Southwest Securities Conference being held in Dallas on August 19 at 1 pm.
07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar has been bid
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07:09 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:08 EDTJMP Securities to hold a bus tour
Internet Bus Tour to travel through Seattle and San Francisco on August 19-20.
07:07 EDTFinancial Industry Regulatory Authority to hold a conference
38th Annual Southwest Securities Conference to be held in Dallas on August 19.
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 19
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05:46 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:05 EDTFX Update: The NZD took a dip while the AUD outperformed
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August 18, 2014
17:49 EDTGaza truce extended by 24 hours as key issues negotiated, Reuters reports
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15:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A risk-on rally boosted stocks sharply in Europe Monday amid truce talks between the foreign ministers of Russia and the Ukraine, despite evidence to the contrary about the likelihood of peace breaking out. Wall Street followed Europe's bullish lead anyway, which sent Treasury yields backing up from 14-month lows set on Friday amid fears of all-out war breaking out. NAHB housing market index surprised on the upside, contributing to these manic moves, though gains in the housing index were focused mainly on the Midwest.
14:18 EDTTreasury prepares options for Lew to consider on tax inversions, WSJ says
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14:05 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
U.S. Housing Starts Preview: July housing starts will be released on Tuesday and analysts expect the headline to increase 8.6% to 970k (median 965k) following the 9.3% dip to an 893k pace in June. Permits should expand at a 995k in July with completions at 830k.
13:40 EDTU.S. equities advance has slowed
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12:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
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12:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: summer doldrums are taking their toll
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12:00 EDTJackson Hole was bullish for stocks 7 out of last 7 times
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
Treasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid, even as the coupons are in retreat following last week's gains. The $29 3-month bill was awarded at 0.030%, a tad richer than 0.035% at the bid deadline, but right on last week's 0.03% stop. There were $135.7 B in bids for a 4.70 cover, better than the prior 4.47 and the 4.62 average. Indirect bidders took 44.9% versus 30.3% previously, and almost twice the 24.0% average. The $25 B 6-month bill stopped at 0.050%, also just through the 0.055% at the bid deadline but on par with last week's 0.050%. There were $120.0 B in bids for a 4.83 cover, compared to 4.72 previously, though in lie with the 4.82 average. Indirect bidders took 48.0% versus 32.0% previously and the 36.0% average.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.094 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.094 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through August 15, 2044. The Street offered $3.225 B. Treasuries yields remain higher with little impact from the buyback as the market unwinds some of last week's rally. The 30-year yield is up over 4 basis points to 3.17% after closing at 3.13% on Friday, the lowest since May 2013.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $50 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been supported
FX Action: USD-JPY has been supported by the better risk backdrop and equity market rally, though continues to struggle over 102.55-60. Pent up Japanese exporter offers remain in place, reportedly from 102.70 to 103.00. Barring fresh geopolitical shocks, USD-JPY remains on a broadly bullish path. Bloomberg reported last week that BoJ officials are considering cutting growth forecast for FY 2014, "according to people familiar with the central bank's discussions," and the JGB 10-year benchmark yield has dipped below 0.50% for the first time in 16 months, both supportive of the dollar.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds today, dated from February 15, 2036 through August 15, 2044. Treasuries remain lower, giving back some of last week's gains, and this purchase isn't likely to offset the selling pressure much. The 30-year yield is up nearly 4 basis points to 3.169% after closing at 3.13% on Friday, the lowest since May 2013.
10:20 EDTSharp gains in the NAHB were focused in the Midwest
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries leaked lower
Treasury Action: Treasuries leaked lower after the pre-release of the better than expected gain in NAHB, though with stocks already on the warpath higher, the data had only marginal impact. The T-note yield nosed over 2.37% to session highs of a tight range, though well above 14-month lows of 2.30% set Friday before peace allegedly broke out during truce talks on the Ukraine. Next upside targets are 2.40-2.44%. The 2s-10s spread is holding near +196 bp.
10:05 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose 2 points to 55 in August
U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose 2 points to 55 in August. The index had climbed 4 points to 53 in July. This is the highest level since January's 56. The single family sales index edged up to 58 from 56 (revised from 57). The future index was 65 from 63 (revised from 64). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 42 from 39 (revised from 39). Data are better than expected.
09:45 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
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09:39 EDTMarket gaps higher at open
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09:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is steady
FX Action: USD-CAD is steady, holding over 1.0975, while running into sellers over 1.0890. Standing bids are seen from 1.0875 down to Friday's 1.0860 lows, though sell stops are rumored below the level. To the upside, option backed sellers are reported at 1.0900, with buy-stops at 1.0930, just over Friday's peak. Oil prices are lower again, perhaps weighing some on the CAD, though a strong Wall Street open may offset to a degree.
09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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09:15 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners should be back on the ticket
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08:54 EDTBofA/Merrill economist & strategist hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief U.S. Economist Harris and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Bianco provide a weekly equity strategy outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on August 18 at 11 am.
08:52 EDTCitigroup securitized products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are higher with Europe
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08:49 EDTCitigroup healthcare services and managed care analysts hold a conference call
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08:01 EDTTD Securities to hold a conference
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08:00 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
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08:00 EDT"Fed bets rate rise can wait" is the banner
"Fed bets rate rise can wait" is the banner headline for WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath's Sunday night expose' (subscription) previewing the Jackson Hole conclave this week, as officials say indicators and markets aren't pointing to overheating. He notes the conference will mainly cover the labor markets, which Yellen is likely to acknowledge are improving, though she may stick to her "slack" theme. He also mentions that 30 private economists in a WSJ survey fear the Fed will get behind the curve on rates, compared to 3 who say the Fed could move too early. That said, after long rates hit a 14-month low on Friday amid global turmoil, Hilsenrath acknowledges that bond markets don't appear to have lost faith in the Fed. Meanwhile, core PCE prices at 1.6% y/y spent 26-months below the Fed's 2% objective. While, the "considerable time" reference may go at some point, the Fed will continue to await more proof on the durability of the recovery, he concludes.
07:59 EDTCRM Magazine to hold a conference
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries declined overnight
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries declined overnight, in tandem with losses in European debt, as risk appetite picked up. Profit taking also weighed on bonds after the 10-year Treasury yield closed at its lowest level in more than a year, and the German Bund hit an historic record low at 0.95%. The 10-year yield has edged up a couple of basis points to 2.364%, with the Bund at 1.0%. Equities have rebounded with Germany's DAX leading the way in Europe, climbing over 1.4%. U.S. equity futures are also sharply higher as worries over Ukraine subside and after the Kurds gained some ground over ISIS. Also, BoE chief Carney sounded more hawkish in a Sunday Times interview. Data was light overnight and is thin in the U.S. today with just the August NAHB homebuilder sentiment index. The NY Fed will purchase $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds today. Other data this week includes uly CPI (Tuesday), July housing starts (Tuesday), July existing home sales (Thursday), the August Philly Fed manufacturing index (Thursday), and the Markit flash manufacturing PMI. But what the markets are really waiting for are the FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) and Yellen's and Draghi's speeches from Jackson Hole (Friday).
07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 82 cents
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries declined overnight
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:33 EDTEasing world tensions lift futures
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06:12 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 18
Globex S&P futures are recently up 8.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.03%, DAX up 1.29%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $96.35, natural gas down 0.95%, gold at $1304 an ounce, and copper up 0.08%.
05:50 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
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August 15, 2014
22:44 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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22:44 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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16:02 EDTAugust Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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16:02 EDTAugust Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
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14:10 EDTFed's Bullard said the FOMC is debating the timing of rate lift-off
Fed's Bullard said the FOMC is debating the timing of rate lift-off, in an XM Sirius radio interview. He looks for the first rate hike at the end of Q1 2015 (which would mean the March 17, 18 FOMC), underpinned by the improving labor market. But he admitted that he is on the "early side" of other FOMC members. He noted that recent data has been strong, consistent with the Fed's outlook, and fears the markets are pricing in too dovish a view. The 10-year TIPS (at 0.133%) is "shockingly low." And he's been surprised at market stability in the face of the QE tapering. The slightly more hawkish Bullard is not a voter this year or next.
15:37 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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12:25 EDTU.S T-note technicals: bulls are still in the driver's seat
U.S T-note technicals: bulls are still in the driver's seat as Ukrainian border skirmishes with Russian "humanitarian" forces, along with very dovish remarks on the Fed's inflation target miss by Kocherlakota fueling the rally. This followed on the heels of flat-negative euro-GDP readings and break in the Bund below 1.0% this week. The T-note yield close below 2.40%, followed by a breach of 2.349% August-8 lows puts it in contention for the lowest level since the QE "taper tantrum" gap in late-June of 2013 as those with stubborn bearish positioning are forced to square up. That puts gap range lows of 2.11% from 21-Jun-13 in the cross-hairs and 1.99% below, while 2.40/2.44% reverts to yield resistance, with the 2.50% psych area above.
11:55 EDTMore dovespeak from Kocherlakota: unemployment is unacceptably high
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11:35 EDTPIMCO's Gross Tweeted: on "Global deflation:
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back over 1.0900
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11:15 EDTU.S. equities retreated back into the red
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11:05 EDTFed dove Kocherlakota: Fed still "some way" from full employment
Fed dove Kocherlakota: Fed still "some way" from full employment and is a "long way" from its employment goal. He doesn't expect inflation goal of 2% to be reached until 2018, meaning resources remain underutilized, even as the jobless rate is seen falling to 5.7% this year. He sees that low rate masking continued weakness in the labor market as the fraction of prime-age potential workers with a job is "disturbingly low." This very dovish view is contributing to the latest drop in T-note yield through the 2.349% Aug-8 low along with ongoing gains in Bunds.
10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has eased to intra day lows
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10:54 EDTUkraine says troops 'destroy' part of Russian convoy, Bloomberg reports
Bloomberg cites a Ukrainian military spokesperson. Reports from Bloomberg and other news services of increased tension in Ukraine have coincided with a downturn in the averages, The Fly notes.
10:50 EDTPhilly Fed's survey of forecasts showed little change in outlooks on the economy
Philly Fed's survey of forecasts showed little change in outlooks on the economy versus those of three months ago, in the latest report. The panel of professional forecasters project real GDP growth of 3.0% this quarter, and 3.1% in Q4, to bring 2014 growth (annual average over annual average) to 2.1%, a slight downgrade from the 2.4% estimate from May. Growth is expected to pick up to 3.1% in 2015 but slip to 2.9% in 2016 and then 2.8% in 2017. Continued improvement in the labor market is anticipated, with the annual average unemployment rate projected at 6.3% for this year, and dropping to 5.7% in 2015, and 5.4% in 2016. Employment is forecast at a monthly average 228.6k increase for Q3 and 211.2k for Q4, bringing 2014's monthly average gain to 204.8k. That's up a bit from the May estimate of 196.5k. Meanwhile, headline 2014 CPI is seen at a 2.3% clip, revised up from 1.9% in the prior forecast, with the core rate at 2.1% versus 1.8% previously.
10:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:19 EDTCLSA technology analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:15 EDTThe August Michigan sentiment drop to 79.2
The August Michigan sentiment drop to 79.2 from 81.8 in July extended the pattern of oscillations around a lean level with a painfully small cyclical uptrend. Michigan sentiment faces headwinds from a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop, limited credit availability, and disruptions from Obamacare, though confidence has enjoyed a 2014 lift from rising equity and home prices. Confidence continues to underperform consumption and payrolls. The tendency for under-estimates in the preliminary report has dissipated somewhat in 2014, though analysts've still seen an upward revision in every month of 2014 with a 0.7 average boost, following a larger 1.8 average boost in 2013. Analysts expect the August reading to sit in the 80.0 area after revision in the final report. Analysts expect an August consumer confidence drop to 87.0 after the July pop to a 90.9 cycle-high from a lower 86.4 in June, versus last year's temporary June peak of 82.1. Analysts've seen small diverging August wiggles in most available confidence indicators as they fluctuate around their mid-2013 levels.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged marginally lower
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10:10 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell 2.6 points to 79.2 in the preliminary August
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: soft U. Michigan boosted prices
Treasury Action: soft U. Michigan boosted prices on Treasuries and futures, while lowering the boom on yields again to knock the T-note below 2.38% to session lows and still eying 2.349% Aug-8 lows. Yet stocks have opened higher and continue to rejoice on the Fed policy implications ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole keynote address next week, along with the perception of lower risk in the Mid-East and Ukraine however tenuous. Yet, bearish put demand on the options front has been noted at the long-end.
10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning at the long-end
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The first release on Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 82.0 (median 81.5) after the July dip to 81.8. The secondary measures of confidence for the month were mixed with the RBC-CASH Index rising to 51.5 from 50.5 and the IBD/TIPP declining to 44.5 from 45.6.
09:50 EDTThe 0.4% July U.S. industrial production rise matched our estimate
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09:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: today's reports don't really give fresh ammo to FOMC hawks
Fed Policy Outlook: today's reports don't really give fresh ammo to FOMC hawks and should allow Chair Yellen the opportunity to buddy with ECB's Draghi and sustain a dovish tone at next week's Jackson Hole central banker conference. The data are consistent with the moderate improvement in the labor market and in manufacturing, but nothing quite so rip-roaring that indicate policy has to be firmed sooner rather than later. The tame PPI readings won't really worry the doves either. The FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) will be a little more mixed as hawks will have some say, though the worry over the continued slack in the labor market revealed in the policy statement should overshadow.
09:33 EDTOptions expiration may overshadow economic data
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09:31 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up slightly
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09:30 EDTU.S. industrial production increased 0.4% in July
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields edged up from
Treasury Action: yields edged up from lows following the slightly firmer tone to the industrial production print, which came in above expectations, along with the earlier surge in TIC outflows. The 10-year yield backed away from a retest of 2.349% August 8 lows and is eying the 2.40% level again. The 2s-10s spread also rebounded to +197 bp.
09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production increased 0.4% in July
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09:20 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.91 points to 14.69 in August
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.91 points to 14.69 in August after jumping 6.32 points to 25.60 in July (the latter was the highest since early 2010). The employment component fell to 13.64 from 17.05 previously. But the workweek rose to 7.95 from 2.27. New orders slid to 14.14 from 18.77. Prices paid rose to 27.27 from 25.00, with prices received at 7.95 from 6.82. The 6-month business conditions index surged to 46.76 after falling to 28.47 in July. The 6-month employment index rose to 22.73 from 17.05, with capital expenditures doubling to 18.18 versus 9.09, and prices paid at 42.05 from 37.50.
09:20 EDTU.S. PPI inched up 0.1% in July with the core rate up 0.2%
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09:16 EDTCredit Suisse healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities largely sustained gains
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09:15 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreigners dumped $153.5 B in total U.S. assets in July
U.S. TIC data showed foreigners dumped $153.5 B in total U.S. assets in July after buying a revised $33.1 B in June (was $35.5 B). Net liquidations totaled $18.7 B, unwinding the $18.6 B in June purchases (revised from $19.4 B). Overseas accounts sold $20.8 B in Treasury coupons compared to June's $25.0 B in purchases. They shed $3.6 B in corporates too, while buying $3.4 B in agency bonds and $2.6 B in stocks. The Netherlands was the biggest buyer of Treasury coupons with $5.7 B, followed by Germany's $5.2 B and Taiwan's $5.0 B and Ireland's $5.0 B. The U.K. was the largest seller of Treasury coupons with -$6.2 B, followed by Thailand's -$4.2 B and -$2.6 B from the Caribbean.
09:15 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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09:05 EDTThe 0.1% U.S. July PPI rise
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09:00 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
June Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities at -$30.2B
08:55 EDTThe Empire State sentiment drop to 14.69
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.0869
FX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.0869 from near 1.0900 after the upwardly revised Canadian employment report, though has steadied somewhat on either side of 1.0880. The market had largely been positioned short of USD-CAD, in anticipation of an improved labor report, so initial reaction was tempered. The pairing managed only a 19 point drop from Thursday's low.
08:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved a touch higher
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI inched up 0.1% in July with the core rate up 0.2%
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08:40 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.9 points to 14.7 in August
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08:36 EDTFutures remain higher following economic data
Stock futures remain higher following several economic data points. The NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index had a reading of 14.69, versus expectations for a 20.0 reading. The Producer Price Index increased 0.1% overall, matching expectations. The core reading was up 0.2%, which was also in-line with the consensus forecast. The next report is due out at 9:00 am ET with the release of the treasury flows, followed by reports on industrial production and capacity utilization that are due at 9:15.
08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 9 cents at $95.67/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 9 cents at $95.67/bbl, after falling more than $2/bbl on Thursday. A calmer geopolitical backdrop, abundant supplies, and contracting demand all came together to beat oil down to levels last seen in early April. China crude demand fell 6% in July, according to Reuters data, while stagnant growth in Europe has contributed to oil price weakness. The market will eye U.S. production data at 9:15 EDT this morning for a gauge on U.S. demand.
08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: August Empire State headline index should ease to 20.0 (median 20.0) following the July leap to 25.6 from 19.3 in June. The ISM-adjusted average for July rose to 56 which matched the cycle high and analysts expect an ease back in August.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly higher
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07:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has softened
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President to speak on the economy
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07:34 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Brazil Infrastructure Day to be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on August 15.
07:33 EDTHMG Strategy to hold a summit
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07:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar weathered a brief dip
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 15
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.80 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.02%, DAX up 0.69%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $95.42, natural gas down 1.54%, gold at $1316 an ounce, and copper up 0.19%.
05:53 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
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04:25 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has pushed higher
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04:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recovered on the 102.50 handle
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03:23 EDTWeek of 8/27 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
03:23 EDTWeek of 8/18 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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August 14, 2014
19:52 EDTAugust Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 8/4 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$34.4B
16:32 EDTWeek of 8/22 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:37 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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15:36 EDTIraqi PM Maliki to concede defeat, back PM-designate, AFP says
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
U.S. PPI Preview: The July overall-PPI, due out tomorrow, is expected to remain flat (median 0.1%) with a 0.1% core index figure (median 0.2%). The 0.4% U.S. June PPI rise with a 0.2% core price rise beat estimates thanks to a big 0.5% price rise for goods and a firm 0.3% June service price increase. This morning's trade price report revealed the expected July headline hits from falling petroleum import and food export prices, but with firmness in the ex-oil and ex-food aggregates that left some "core" price resilience into Q3.
14:30 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect shipments, due Friday, to rise 0.7% in June (median +0.6%) after the 1.6% surge in May. Export values grew 1.0% in June after the 4.3% surge in May, but the improvement was due to a 2.5% gain in energy alongside modest 0.5% gains in industrials and M&E. Notably, passenger/light vehicle exports fell 6.3% after the 9.5% surge in May. Hence, the pull-back in June vehicle exports (down 2.5%) suggests some downside risk to our manufacturing shipment projection.
14:30 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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14:20 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The first release on Michigan Sentiment will be released Friday and should reveal a headline increase to 82.0 (median 81.5) after the July dip to 81.8. The secondary measures of confidence for the month were mixed with the RBC-CASH Index rising to 51.5 from 50.5 and the IBD/TIPP declining to 44.5 from 45.6.
14:10 EDTU.S. equities continue to creep higher
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14:10 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: June industrial production will be out on Friday and the headline should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.3%) increase for the month on the heels of a 0.6% gain in May. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 79.2% (median 79.2%) from 79.1% last month.
15:37 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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13:56 EDT Corporate Profits to be released at 08:30
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13:56 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30
13:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar continues to drift mostly higher
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: the reach for yield
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12:40 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview:
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has edged up over 102.45
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.792 B in notes
NY Fed bought $1.792 B in notes dated from May 2019 through April 2020. The Street offered $7.919 B. The buyback has helped support the bond market, which has been in rally mode most of the week. The 5-year yield hit a low of 1.54% earlier this morning but has edged up to 1.558% subsequently.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $16 B 5-year TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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10:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the wi 30-year has richened to 3.225% in the face of supply amid weaker than expected European data on the heels of the disappointing U.S. retails sales. So far the first two legs of the refunding have gone ok, and today's should too. At 3.225%, that would be the lowest stop since May 2013. Many of the factors that helped underpin yesterday's 10-year sale should support the bond as well, including wide spreads to other sovereigns, generally bullish momentum, tame inflation, and geopolitical risks. Last month's $13 B reopening was awarded at 3.369% and garnered a 2.40 cover and a whopping 53.2% indirect bid, with direct bidders accepting 11.1% with primary dealers taking 35.7%.
10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.6 B to $1.9 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.6 B to $1.9 B in notes dated from May 15, 2019 through April 30, 2020 note. The belly of the curve is outperforming and this purchase will add some further support. The 5-year yield is down 3 basis points to 1.549%, the lowest since late May.
10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD's brief foray under 1.0900
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending August 8
Gas inventories 78 Bcf build vs. consensus of 82 Bcf build.
09:56 EDTCitigroup real estate analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning included the sale of 30k in Short December 90/91 put spreads. There was also a purchase of 1k in Short March 83/86 put spreads vs 88/90 call spreads, and a bearish purchase of 10k in Red December 80/85/90 put butterflies, among others. The underlying short-dated rate futures remain well bid with the front September 2014 a half tick higher at 99.77, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks firmer as well, as Europe knocks on the door of a triple-dip recession.
09:39 EDTMarket opens slightly higher
Stock futures weakened slightly during pre-market trading after there were more jobless claims last week than were expected. The futures closed above fair value, leading to a slightly higher open for the broader market. There is little more scheduled for release from the economic calendar, the earnings season is winding down, and there is relative calm on the geopolitical front at the moment, which may make for little resistance if the market begins to move higher. The Dow began the day just 500 points shy of its all-time high. In early trading, the Dow is up 22 points, the Nasdaq is up 6 points and the S&P is up 4 points.
09:10 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
The U.S. trade price report revealed big July headline hits from falling petroleum import and food export prices, but with firmness in the ex-oil and ex-food trade price measures that left some "core" price resilience into Q3. Commodity prices are now unwind the early-2014 boosts from harsh winter weather and Middle East turmoil. Trade prices have more generally been moving sideways since 2011 as global growth weakness has allowed commodity price restraint, as has the 1%-3% annual rate of climb for the dollar since 2011. For 2014 overall, export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-petroleum are showing a slight firming path, with respective year-to-date gains of 0.6% and 0.5% that follow respective 2013 declines of 0.3% and 1.2% and near-zero figures of -0.3% and 0.1% in 2012. For the remaining July inflation reports, analysts expect flat headline figures for CPI, PCE chain prices and PPI, with core price gains of 0.2% for CPI and 0.1% for PCE chain prices and PPI.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer
U.S. equities are mildly firmer after the round of tame trades price and the claims rebound. Following the "bad is good" theme from yesterday, stocks perversely rebounded overnight led by Europe after negative GDP prints littered around the region led the markets to conclude that more stimulus would be forthcoming from the ECB. Likewise, in Asia another round of slim China lending data encouraged the same belief in the PBoC. Russia's Putin also vowed to do everything possible to stop the Ukraine conflict, though that's a double-edged sword of course. The Dow is 4-points firmer, S&P gained 1-point and NASDAQ is 2-points higher in pre-open action, shedding earlier gains. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart and Cisco missed on the earnings front, capping gains overnight, while Macy's slashed its full-year guidance, though Kohl's beat.
08:52 EDTFutures off highs, still point to slightly higher open
Stock futures are off their earlier highs but are still pointing to a slightly higher open for the broader market following the release of the weekly jobless claims data. Initial claims were 311K, versus the expected 295K, while continuing claims were 2.54M versus the expected 2.5M. The import price index showed a decline of 0.2%, versus an expected decline of 0.3%.
08:50 EDTThe 21k U.S. initial claims bounce to 311k
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices fell 0.2%, while export prices were flat in July
U.S. import prices fell 0.2%, while export prices were flat in July. There were no revisions to June data that showed a 0.1% increase in import prices and a 0.4% decline in export prices. Petroleum import prices rose dropped 1.2% after strong gains in May and June. Excluding petroleum, prices were unchanged. Food and beverage import prices rebounded 1.0% after declines in the prior 3 months. Import prices with China and Canada dipped 0.2%. Agricultural export prices rose dove 2.2% in July, and prices were up % excluding ag rose 0.3%. Headline data weren't as analysts as analysts projected, but still don't imply any strong pick up in inflation.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows once more
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 17 cents at $97.42/bbl
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended August 9 are expected to see a 3k decrease to 286k (median 298k) as analysts expect the recent decline to continue. The 14k claims drop to 289k in the first week of August defied the expected unwind of the July retooling distortions that was presumably evident with the prior 23k pop to 303k (was 302k) from the 279k mid-July cycle-low, as claims appear to be oscillating around tighter levels following the July vehicle sector retooling.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are higher
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07:41 EDTFutures point to higher open following yesterday’s advance
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:12 EDTFDA Pulmonary-Allergy Drugs Advisory Committe to hold a meeting
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar came under moderate pressure
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for August 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.66%, DAX down 0.39%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $97.35, natural gas down 0.39%, gold at $1316 an ounce, and copper down 0.29%.
05:51 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
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