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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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May 25, 2015
19:02 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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19:02 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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19:02 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:35 EDTAsian stock markets will try to sustain momentum
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14:05 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: April new homes data is out Tuesday and the headline is seen rising 2.9% to a 495k (median 503k) unit pace from 481k in March. Housing starts for the month were already released and revealed big gains with the headline rising to 1,135k in April from 944k in March.
14:00 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD fell to a new low
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May 22, 2015
19:00 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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18:59 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [0.1]% for the quarter
18:59 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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18:59 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
May Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is [10.0]
18:59 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 1
18:59 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:59 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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18:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
April Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
18:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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14:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:55 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening trades should be de rigueur near term
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to highs on Yellen
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13:07 EDTFed Chair sees pace of normalization likely to be gradual
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13:05 EDTYellen sees growth in employment, output to moderate over rest of year
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13:05 EDTU.S. BEA is considering alterations to its GDP calculus
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13:02 EDTYellen: Fed needs to be 'reasonably confident' on inflation before raising rates
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY dipped to a two-day low
FX Action: USD-JPY dipped to a two-day low at 120.71 during Tokyo trade, as the BoJ left policy unchanged, as was widely expected, noting in its statement that the economy "continues to recover moderately". After opening the N.Y. session just under 121.00, USD-JPY posted better than two-month highs of 121.56, spiking up in the aftermath of the hotter U.S. CPI data. The pairing remains capped ahead of a series of March highs between 121.50 and 121.67, which has kept the pairing away from multi-year highs of 122.23 made on March 10, though a strong close this afternoon could see Asian markets test the highs on Monday.
11:25 EDTFedspeak resumes over the weekend
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10:30 EDTTreasury Action: next week's big supply calendar could keep bonds heavy
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10:25 EDTFinancials are all among the top gainers in the Dow
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10:21 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policy on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 22 at 11 am.
09:55 EDTU.S. equities found some equilibrium
U.S. equities found some equilibrium in the wake of choppy conditions following the uptick in core CPI that initially sent stocks lower ahead of the open. This was accompanied by bond yields simmering back down after the knee-jerk reaction higher, which provided some cover for the shallow rebound in stocks after the open. This has been paced by the tech sector, with NASDAQ higher as the blue chips lag, while Europe has cut earlier losses as well, as the Euro Stoxx 50 moves back to flat as the euro loses ground. NYMEX crude back below $60 bbl and commodity prices have also slipped, keeping some pressure on the energy sector as the dollar rallies.
09:52 EDTWallachBeth biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:40 EDTMarket opens quietly in what may be low-key session
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures plunged
Euro$ interest rate futures plunged following the 0.3% rise in core CPI, after biding their time ahead of Yellen's speech on the economic outlook, which is still widely expected to emphasize "transitory" weakness. Fed moderate Williams endorsed the 2% inflation mandate in a speech overnight, while core CPI steadied at 1.8% y/y - still below that target. The December 2015 contract sank 3-ticks to near 99.405, while the deferreds turned up to 2.5-tick gains in to losses of as much as 5.5-ticks out the back end. All else equal, look for some bottom-fishing ahead of the early close.
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals after the hotter CPI data
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: firming in April CPI supports a September rate hike
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to levitate
Treasury Action: yields continued to levitate higher in the wake of the uptick in core CPI, through the 2.21% 50% retracement area of Thursday's 2.256-2.163% range, which puts the top end of that range in sight. This has been reinforced by the sharp reaction in the dollar moving higher, though equity losses have been fairly muted in pre-open trade. A break of the 2.25-2.26% area will be required to crack May's wedge or flag-shaped pattern and put 2.303% May 19 highs or 2.366% May 12 highs in reach. 2.20-2.16% reverts to yield support, should the bond market rethink the risks on Yellen's 13 ET speech. The 2s-10s spread has consolidated around +160 bp, with the deepest losses in the belly and the bond outperforming relatively.
09:05 EDTThe 0.1% April U.S. CPI rise
The 0.1% April U.S. CPI rise with a surprisingly firm 0.3% core price gain rounded from respective increases of 0.103% and 0.256%, with price strength attributable to a 0.9% price pop for medical care services and a 0.3% rise for owners' equivalent rent. Analysts now expect 0.1% PCE chain price figure with a 0.2% core price gain, and a 0.2% April nominal PCE rise with a 0.1% "real" gain. Our 2.5% Q2 GDP growth forecast assumes nominal consumption growth of 4.3% with a lean 1.7% "real" rise and a 2.6% chain price increase, after expected upward Q1 revisions that leave a 0.1% (was -0.1%) nominal Q1 growth rate with a 2.1% (was 1.9%) real rise and a 2.0% chain price contraction. The CPI figures defied the underperformance for other April inflation measures. Analysts saw a 0.4% April PPI drop with a 0.2% core price decline, and the 0.6% April PPI drop on the old SOP basis. The April trade price report revealed surprising April weakness after a two-month pause in the trade price downtrend.
09:00 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 12:30
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09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 12:00
09:00 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 14:15
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09:00 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 09:05
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09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 12:30
09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 11:30
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09:00 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 09:10
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08:53 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD jumped to 1.2269 highs
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI edged up 0.1% with the core up 0.3% in April
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields spiked higher
Treasury Action: yields spiked higher following the hotter than expected core CPI reading, though measured y/y it was a still tame +1.8%. The T-note shot back over 2.20% in a snap from 2.17% in advance of the data, likely as much a function of shallow liquidity as any heartfelt inflation concern. With Yellen's speech looming after the early bond market close, yields are unlikely to get too far as she is likely to remain cautious on the "transitory" economic slowdown, in line with the last statement and FOMC minutes.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied broadly
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08:33 EDTModest reaction to consumer prices report
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude eased into $60.04 lows
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08:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are mostly firmer
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07:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the rise
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar pulled back some in London dealings, though has since rebounded, taking EUR-USD toward 1.1170 from 1.1208 highs. The earlier rally came on the back of better German Ifo data. USD-JPY is up flirting with 121 again, after falling back in Asia on a fairly benign BoJ meeting. USD-CAD has formed up over 1.2215, holding support at 1.2170. Canadian data will include retail sales and CPI, generally good for some CAD volatility. In the U.S., the sole release comes at 8:30 EDT in the form of April CPI.
07:11 EDTFederal Reserve Board Chair Yellen to speak at luncheon meeting
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07:09 EDTFutures quiet ahead of holiday weekend
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07:00 EDTFX Update:
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 22
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05:53 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 120.70-80
FX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 120.70-80 after extending bellow's Tokyo low to a new two-day nadir at 120.63. The BoJ left policy unchanged following its two-day meeting, as was widely expected, noting in its statement that the economy "continues to recover moderately," similar to the prevailing policymaker message. Kuroda also repeated prevailing boilerplate remarks during his press conference. The decline back below 121.00 after the run higher earlier in the week to a two-month high of 121.47 reaffirms the broadly side-ways, if at times choppy, trend that's been persisting since early December. Analysts continue to anticipate an eventual breakout to the topside as the U.S. economy recovers traction following its Q1 and early-Q2 soft patch, while the ultra loose monetary policies of Abecomics are likely to be remaining in force in Japan when the Fed eventually reaches tightening lift-off. Resistance is at 121.47-50, support at 120.50.
04:10 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda said that a "positive cycle is kicking in"
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled in the low-to-mid 1.11s
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02:03 EDTWeek of 6/3 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
02:03 EDTWeek of 5/25 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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02:03 EDTMay Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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00:25 EDTBoJ left policy unchanged, as widely expected
BoJ left policy unchanged, as widely expected, continuing to increase the monetary base at an annual rate of JPY 80 tln. The vote was 8-1. As indicated in the statement, the Bank will maintain QQE until inflation stabilizes at the 2% target. It's seen holding around 0% for the near term. Meanwhile, the recovery is still expected to be moderate for now, even after Q1 GDP surprised on the high side with a 2.4% gain. The stimulus is having its desired effect, according to officials, but risks will be monitored and policy will be adjusted as is appropriate. Many in the market suspect the economy will lose momentum in 2H and force the BoJ to increase stimulus measures later this year or in early 2016. The Nikkei is slightly higher on the day, while USD-JPY has dipped to 120.75, from a high of 121.04 earlier.
May 21, 2015
16:37 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
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16:37 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:11 EDTWeek of 5/29 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:11 EDTWeek of 5/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:35 EDTFed proposed allowing banks to use muni bonds
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14:10 EDTFed VC Fischer argued that the European crisis
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14:05 EDTTreasury Action: short covering into the long holiday weekend
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13:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed fresh lows
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13:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has consolidated recent gains
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13:29 EDTWeek of 5/30 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening was lackluster
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13:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are lightly bid
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12:50 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS auction preview
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12:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar has lightened considerably
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12:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: a flurry of 5-year block positioning
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11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: board volatility came off
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11:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:25 EDTTreasury detailed $176 B in auctions for next week as supply picks up
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD remains firm
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11:14 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:14 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:14 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828XE5
11:14 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at -13 vs consensus of -2
10:45 EDTThe 3.3% U.S. existing home sales drop
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending May 15
Gas inventories 92 Bcf build vs. consensus of 96 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTU.S. leading indicators jumped 0.7% to 122.3 in April
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10:25 EDTThe Philly Fed downtick to 6.7 from 7.5
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10:20 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index slid 0.8 points to 6.7 in May
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index slid 0.8 points to 6.7 in May after rebounding 2.5 points to 7.5 in April. This is the 5th monthly decline out of six (the April increase had broken a string of 4 straight monthly drops since the index surged 21.2 points to 40.2 in November, which was the highest since December 1993). The components were mixed. The employment index fell back to 6.7 after jumping to 11.5 in April. The workweek sunk to -5.6 from 3.4. New orders rose to 4.0 from 0.7 previously. Prices paid double down and dropped to -14.2 from -7.5. Prices received slid to -5.4 from -4.1. The 6-month index dipped to 33.9 from 35.5, though employment improved to 21.5 from 20.6, and cap-ex rose to 16.8 from 15.8. The report is disappointing, however, and will support Treasury market gains.
10:15 EDTU.S. April existing home sales unexpectedly fell 3.3% to 5.04 M
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged lower
FX Action: The dollar edged lower after the mix of data, where leading indicators beat expectations, as existing home sales and the Philly Fed index were light. EUR-USD fell into the 121.00 level from near 121.15, as EIR-USD moved up over 1.1140 from under 1.1115. Wall Street remains marginally higher, as yields pulled back a touch.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields spilled lower
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10:05 EDTU.S. flash Markit PMI dipped 53.8 in May
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09:59 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped slightly
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09:50 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
U.S. leading economic indicators preview: the April index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to grow 0.5% (median 0.3%) vs 0.2% in March. Analysts expect the big improvement in housing permits to help lift the headline. preview for more.
09:35 EDTMarket has another quiet open
Stock futures improved slightly following the release of the weekly jobless claims which has now put together the best four month weekly averages since November 2000. The futures action led to another quiet open for the broader market which remains near record levels. Investors will now be watching the existing home sales report, the weekly natural gas storage change data and the leading economic indicators.
09:25 EDTFedspeak resumes with Vice Chair Fischer
Fedspeak resumes with Vice Chair Fischer who will be discussing "Past, Present and Future Challenges for the Euro Area" before an ECB central banking forum at 14 ET from Portugal. Without any Q&A scheduled, this should remain on topic and not stray into U.S. policy per se. After the close SF Fed moderate Williams takes part in a "Policy Panel on the Impact of Reform in Practice" from 19 ET. Of course, this will be trumped by Yellen's speech on the economic outlook tomorrow from 13 ET, as markets wind down for the long Memorial Day weekend.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are still mildly lower
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09:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $59.50
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08:49 EDTFutures remain lower following early economic reports
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields crept lower
Treasury Action: yields crept lower following the higher than expected reading on jobless claims, though this is relative to their consistent declines over the past several months. The T-note yield probed below 2.23%, but found support ahead of 2.21% session lows after topping out near 2.25% overnight. The 2s-10s spread is holding near +165 bp. There's plenty of data left on tap to rock the boat later.
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago National Activity index improved to -0.15 April
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly
FX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then recovered after the slightly higher than consensus claims outcome, and marginal improvement in the Chicago Fed index. EUR-USD touched 1.1147 highs, before slipping to N.Y. session lows of 1.1121, as USD-JPY dipped to 121.02, before jumping to just shy of 121.20. Yields edged lower, as equity futures remained in shallow negative territory.
08:45 EDTThe 10k U.S. initial claims bounce to 274k
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08:35 EDTIs the Fed's 2% inflation target too low?
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed in quiet trading
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed in quiet trading with the long end posting small gains and outperforming on the curve and against core sovereigns overseas. The 10-year note rate is slightly lower at 2.23%. Bunds are modestly weaker with the yield up 2 bps to 0.65%, while the U.K. Gilt has risen to 1.99%. Data reports overnight were mixed. China's HSBC/Markit flash PMI firmed to 49.1, but was in contractionary territory for a third straight month. U.K. retail sales were much stronger than expected, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI surprised higher, while the services index fell back. There's a lot of U.S. data today, including April existing home sales, the May Philly Fed survey, the May Markit flash manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims (the week coincides with the BLS survey week), and April leading indicators.
07:25 EDTFutures suggesting lower open for market
U.S. equity futures are suggesting a moderately lower open following disappointing manufacturing data out of China. The report showed manufacturing shrunk for the third consecutive month as demand remained soft. U.S. investors will get a number of economic data points, including weekly jobless claims data, Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report and the leading economic indicators.
07:17 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:17 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
China Healthcare C-Level Conference is being held in Hong Kong on May 21.
06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is higher today
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 21
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05:57 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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04:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is testing 121.00
FX Action: USD-JPY is testing 121.00 in London trader after earlier meeting Japanese exporter offers and other selling after opening in Tokyo, when spot was near yesterday's two-month high at 121.47. Slightly firmer than expected Japanese manufacturing PMI data, and slightly softer than expected China PMI, had little impact today. An article in the Nikkei newspaper today also suggests that the BoJ will revise its outlook up during its policy meeting, which concludes tomorrow. The dip in USD-JPY has seen the early-March high at 122.03 dip back under the horizon. That level is the highest point the pair has seen during the broadly side-ways trend that's been persisting since early December. Analysts have been anticipating an eventual breakout to the topside as the U.S. economy recovers traction following its Q1- early-Q2 soft patch, while the ultra loose monetary policies of Abecomics are likely to be remaining in force in Japan when the Fed eventually reaches tightening lift-off. Resistance is at 121.47-50, support at 121.00 and 120.50.
02:35 EDTFX Update: The FOMC minutes took wind out of the dollar's sails
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May 20, 2015
23:20 EDTChina HSBC flash PMI rose to 49.1 in May
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21:39 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
16:15 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The May Philly Fed is out Thursday and the headline should improve to 8.0 (median 8.0) from 7.5 in April. The already released Empire State report revealed a headline increase to 3.1 from -1.2 in April and the report's ISM-adjusted measure improved as well, rising to 51.7 from 51.0 in April. Broadly speaking, analysts expect producer sentiment in May to maintain the ISM-adjusted average of 51 that analysts saw in April after two months at 50 in February and March.
16:00 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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15:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:09 EDTWeek of 5/29 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:45 EDTMore from the FOMC minutes
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped initially
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields flip-flopped
Treasury Action: yields flip-flopped after the FOMC minutes, first zigging lower to dip below 2.24% on the 10-year before zagging back over 2.27% for a little volatility after the minutes relative to the quagmire in advance. The Fed is still leaning toward a temporary slowdown, but there were a lot of caveats that remain to be dispelled. The majority did reject a June hike, however, which was a known risk in advance. Stocks remain baffled, while the dollar has rebounded.
14:14 EDTStocks off lows, still mixed following release of Fed minutes
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14:10 EDTFOMC minutes indicated officials thought a June hike was unlikely
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14:04 EDTMost Fed members expect moderate economic expansion after Q1
The Federal Reserve stated in the latest minutes, "Most participants expected that, following the slowdown in the first quarter, real economic activity would resume expansion at a moderate pace, and that labor market conditions would improve further. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports."
14:02 EDTFed minutes show many FOMC members saw June rate hike as 'unlikely'
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13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning has prevailed over the course of the session. Among them were some 10k in bullish purchases of calls, call spreads and butterflies, with strikes mostly in the 127-128 zone. On the bearish side were buyers of 1.5k in July 125 puts, 2k in June 127/126.5 put 1x2s and sales of 5k in June/Sep 125.5/124.5 put spreads in a calendar roll. June 10s are still up marginally ahead of the Fed minutes in dull trade, rising 5-ticks to 127-06, compared to their 127-10 to 126-275 session range.
13:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options/futures: heavy positioning
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13:00 EDTFed funds futures are anticipating a 25 bp rate hike by the end of the year
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12:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday
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12:21 EDTWeek of 5/29 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: some curve steepening
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12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has powered its way to fresh highs
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10:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied/fell
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10:45 EDTTech/housing bubble talk has been fueled
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are outperforming core European sovereigns
Treasury Action: Treasuries are outperforming core European sovereigns, reversing the trend from Monday and Tuesday. Sources say profit taking on the spread, which hit an intraday wide of 170 bps Tuesday (and was the widest since May 1), has supported the T-note this morning, while Greek fears worry Bund investors. The Treasury-Bund pairing has squeezed down to 166 bps from over 169 bps yesterday, after gapping out 7 bps to 158 bps on Monday. Again much of the action is more a function of positioning rather than fundamentals. The advent of the Memorial Day holiday weekend in the U.S. and month-end are also reportedly impacting. Note that Barclays' estimates the June 1 extension at 0.13 years, large but about average for a refunding month.
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of May 15
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10:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar remains on the heavy side
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09:54 EDTAverages open quietly, slightly lower in early trading
Stock futures firmed during the pre-market trading session and traded near fair value. The futures action led to a quiet open for the broader market, which is now down slightly in early trading. Investors will be waiting on the energy inventory levels for clues on the potential direction of oil prices as well as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting for indications of any monetary policy shift. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 16 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:42 EDTFinancial Services Roundtable to hold a webcast
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09:40 EDTFOMC minutes to April meeting could be a source of further volatility
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call demand
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded off its best levels
FX Action: USD-CAD has traded off its best levels of 1.2256 posted in London, and is currently trading near 1.2200 as oil prices stabilize near $58.50. The next potential mover for the pairing will be the 10:30 EDT release of weekly EIA petroleum inventory data, which generally, if only briefly, riles up the oil market. API data reported a larger than expected stock draw on Tuesday, and the oil market will look to EIA for confirmation this morning. Some corporate backed USD-CAD bids are noted from 1.2200, though after that, support doesn't really enter the picture until 1.2130, Tuesday's lows.
08:45 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans saw no rate hike before early 2016
Chicago Fed dove Evans saw no rate hike before early 2016 as being appropriate in a speech overnight from Munich, reiterating his warning that the Fed shouldn't hike until there's greater confidence that inflation will be it its 2% target 1-2 years out. Meanwhile, "inflation is too low, and I expect it will be so for some time," he said. It would take substantially stronger wage growth to convince him otherwise, which he does not anticipate. Also if core inflation moves substantially above 1.5% or the sustainable unemployment rate was at 5%. Though unabashedly dovish, this was in line with his past statements.
08:30 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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08:30 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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08:10 EDT5 things to watch in the FOMC minutes
5 things to watch in the FOMC minutes have been detailed by WSJ's Da Costa (subscription), who sees 1) rate increase timing, 2) recalibrating the growth outlook, 3) new doubts on jobs?, 4) inflation stabilizes, and 5) sympathy for 2016 holdouts? as the major themes to look for in the minutes. Recall, the April meeting had focused on the "transitory" nature of the economic slowdown and retired calendar-based guidance.
08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $58.86 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $58.86 highs in London trade, after touching $57.91 lows in N.Y. on Tuesday. The modest rally came on the heels of a larger than expected weekly inventory draw, as reported by API after the close on Tuesday. Later, stronger Japan GDP data helped support. The market will now focus on weekly EIA inventory numbers, due at 10:30 EDT. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures recovered to $2.02/gallon, after sliding more than 5 cents, toward $1.99 yesterday, as natural gas futures steadied under $3.00/M BTU, after posting four-month highs on Tuesday.
07:40 EDTSEC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.5%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.5% in data released earlier, along with a 3.7% drop in the purchase index and a 0.3% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended May 15. By mid-May mortgage rates had risen to the highest level since December with the Bund tantrum, which drew a parallel move with Treasuries and pulled mortgage rates higher as well. The average 30-year fixed rate rose another 4 basis points to 4.04%, having cleared the 4.0% barrier the week prior. As the MBA noted, "Mortgage rates increased last week, and Treasury rates increased to a recent high at mid-week before falling at the end of the week. Overall purchase activity fell for the week, along with conventional refinance volume, but government refinance volume increased." This data is a little more sober than the 20% boom in housing starts recorded yesterday, but still illustrates the challenging dynamic the Fed faces between managing rate tightening expectations and reining in the economy. New home sales and existing home sales have been on a more gradual upslope this year too.
07:39 EDTB. Riley to hold a conference
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07:31 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a forum
LatAm Concessions Forum is being held in New York on May 20-21.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields are slightly lower
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07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:08 EDTNational Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships to hold a conference
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06:59 EDTFutures quiet as investors await Fed minutes
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 20
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05:58 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has remained heavy
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May 19, 2015
20:30 EDTJapan's GDP accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1
Japan's GDP accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4. Private investment bounced 7.5% after the 2.4% dip in Q4, 23.2% drop in Q3 and 36.7% pull-back in Q2. Private non-residential investment rose 1.4% in Q1, the first increase since Q1 of 2014. Exports grew 9.9% in Q1 while imports expanded 12.0%, leaving a drag from net exports. Inventories added to growth in Q1. Overall, this is a much better than expected report. While the Japanese economy faces considerable challenges, the pick-up in business investment is a positive sign for the growth outlook that will not be lost on the Bank of Japan.
16:15 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:15 EDTWeek of 5/30 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:54 EDTDow, S&P 500 hit new highs in afternoon trading
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13:10 EDTFOMC minutes could be a source of further volatility for the markets
FOMC minutes could be a source of further volatility for the markets, even though no big surprises are anticipated. The bond market has generally been defying weaker fundamentals during the selloff over the last three weeks, until today's housing starts figures. And traders may cherry-pick hawkish comments in the minutes to the April 28, 29 meeting to support the potential for a September rate hike, if not June. There weren't any real surprises in the April policy statement, and the forward guidance was removed in favor of data dependency, as universally expected. Remember that the Fed slightly downgraded its economic outlook, though it attributed some of the Q1 slowing to "transitory" factors. So there are likely to be a number of differing views on these topics from which traders can choose. Indeed, there are a number of factors that policymakers can cite to support rate liftoff, especially in the job market, but there are also a number of elements, specifically wages and prices, not to mention sluggish Q1 growth, that give the FOMC pause.
12:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is down 3%
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is down 3% on the session, trading to lows of $58.34, and near support at $58.11, which has been the lowest since the start of May. Sources expect follow through to the $56.50 region should $58.00 give way.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $45 B 4-week bill auction results were soft
Treasury's $45 B 4-week bill auction results were soft, though in part it's a function of the $5 B increase in size. The bill tailed, however, to 0.015% versus 0.005% at the bid deadline, and is a little cheaper than last week's 0.010% too. Bids totaled $151.7 B for a 3.38 cover, down from the prior 3.95 and the 3.79 average. In fact, it's the smallest since December 16. Indirect bidders took 15.6%, about half of the 31.4% take last week, and is below the 27.7% average.
11:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: another heavy calendar
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10:45 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
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10:33 EDTThe FTC to hold a press conference on major consumer fraud case
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10:20 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is on course for rate liftoff later this year
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10:14 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Industrials Analysts provide a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 19 at 11 am.
10:00 EDTSF Fed writes "shockingly weak" Q1 GDP was likely a statistical anomaly
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10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has run into sellers from the 120.45 level
FX Action: USD-JPY has run into sellers from the 120.45 level, with offers reportedly in place now from 12050 to 120.80. Pent up yen demand from Japanese exporters is the likely source of the USD-JPY selling interest, though with yields staying firmer, and overall dollar pullback limited, the market may well begin to test the depth of the sellers.
09:55 EDTEconomic Club of New York to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:55 EDTStocks fluctuate around flatline in early trading
Stock futures remained in positive territory throughout the pre-market trading session, showing little reaction to the better than expected housing starts and building permits data. The futures action led to a positive open for the broader market, but the averages have turned mixed in the early going, with the Dow down 20 points, the Nasdaq up 3 points and the S&P down 1 point.
09:52 EDTFinancial Stability Oversight Council holds an open session meeting
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09:35 EDTU.S. starts and permits revealed big April rebounds
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury-Bund note spread gapped out to 168 bps
Treasury Action: Treasury-Bund note spread gapped out to 168 bps as recent data/events highlight the divergent policy paths of the FOMC and the ECB. The 10-year Treasury rate climbed to 2.27% after the data, while the Bund yield is down over 4 bps to 0.59% currently (it was as low as 0.549% in European trading). The spread was as wide as 184 bps just prior to the April 29 FOMC statement amid fears of a hawkish tone (which turned out not to be the case). The stronger than expected housing starts figures gives credence to the Fed's view that much of the Q1 weakness was "transitory," which keeps alive the potential for rate liftoff later this year (June still seems unlikely). Meanwhile, European bond yields dropped sharply overnight on ECB comments that they are prepared to accelerate QE amid summer doldrums. Spread plays should remain volatile near term with a lot of key U.S. data ahead, including the June 5 employment report.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on one-month highs of 1.2239
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09:00 EDTU.S. stocks will try to extend higher
U.S. stocks will try to extend higher after the S&P 500 made a new record high on Monday. The risk rally has gained added traction on China stimulus speculation and ECB willingness to accelerate bond purchases in May and June, so as not to hamper liquidity in July and August. Although bond yields have backed up from session lows, contending with the much stronger than expected U.S. housing data. In corporate news, Wal-Mart has reported Q1 earnings that missed estimates, hurt by the stronger dollar, according to Bloomberg. Urban Outfitters has also disappointed with Q1 earnings. But Home Depot has raised its profit and sales guidance for the year on the back of the housing market recovery. Meanwhile, H-P plans to sell its Chinese unit to Tsinghua Unigroup, according to the WSJ. S&P 500 futures have firmed 3.75 points, Nasdaq futures have increased 15.5 points. And Dow futures have advanced 41 points.
08:59 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury gains were undone by the stronger housing data
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied across the board
FX Action: The dollar rallied across the board after the much better than expected housing starts data. EUR-USD fell to one-week lows of 1.1140 from 1.1190, as USD-JPY ramped up to two-week highs of 120.43, from 120.18. Euro support is now seen at 1.1131, the May 11 low, while USD-JPY resistance is at 120.50, the May 5 high. Equity futures kept their gains, as yields moved higher.
08:46 EDTCowen healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts surged 20.2% to 1,135k in April
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08:33 EDTFutures remain higher following housing data
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08:20 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: starts are expected to rise another 8.0% to a 1,000k pace, after the 2.0% March gain, still correcting from the 15.3% weather-impacted plunge in February. Despite the gains, starts are still below the recent high of 1,098k in July. Permits should improve to a 1,055k pace from a revised 1,042k in March (were 1,039k).
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded to lows of $59.41
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded to lows of $59.41 in London, after Saudi Arabia reported crude shipments of nearly 8 M bpd, a 10-year high. In addition, slack global demand, particularly in China, should see oil prices head lower still in the coming weeks. RBOB gasoline futures are near one-week low, trading at $2.03/gallon, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.71/gallon, up 5 cents from a week ago, and up 25 cents from a month ago, according to AAA data. Demand going into the U.S. Memorial day holiday weekend has helped gasoline prices higher. Natural gas futures meanwhile, touched four-month highs of $3.06/M BTU, as warmer weather throughout much of the U.S. ramps up electricity demand.
07:55 EDTU.S. chain store sales slid 1.2% in the week ended May 16
U.S. chain store sales slid 1.2% in the week ended May 16, according to The Retail Economist, after falling 1.7% in the week prior. In fact, this is a 3rd consecutive weekly decline, a string that hasn't been seen since mid-January. However, on an annual basis, sales accelerated a bit to a 2.3% y/y pace, versus the 2.1% y/y clip previously, though it's one of the slowest rates in a few months. According to the report, unfavorable weather hurt apparel sales, but furniture and home improvement provided an offset.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are higher around the world
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are higher around the world. Gains have been paced by European markets, inspired by comments from the ECB's Coeure and Noyer, who each indicated the central bank will accelerate bond purchases slightly in May and June and could extend the QE program beyond September next year if necessary. Also, European Commission President Juncker's optimism on a quick deal on Greece added support. Data also factored in as German ZEW and U.K. inflation unexpectedly declined. The German Bund yield is down over 7 bps to 0.575%, with the 10-year Treasury off 4 bps to 2.19%. There isn't a lot on the U.S. calendar today with just April housing starts and weekly chain store sales.
07:38 EDTCarver Federal Savings Bank / New York SBDC to hold a seminar
Profit Mastery Seminar is being held in Jamaica, New York on May 19-20.
07:37 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:19 EDTEuropa Organisation to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTCenter for Venture Capital & Private Equity Finance holds a symposium
34th Annual Michigan Growth Capital Symposium is being held in Ypsilanti, Michigan on May 19-20.
07:04 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:01 EDTFutures suggest higher open for U.S. market
Stock futures are higher this morning, taking their lead from rising overseas markets. The early catalyst appears to be statements by euro official who said the ECB was ready to expand its pace of bond buying in May and June before slowing it down in July and August so as to be less disruptive during the summer months. In the U.S., investors will get data on housing starts and building permits at 8:30 am EDT.
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 19
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05:52 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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02:35 EDTFX Update: The dollar has retained the perkier tone
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May 18, 2015
16:27 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:27 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:27 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:15 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: starts, due Tuesday, are expected to rise another 8.0% to a 1,000k pace, after the 2.0% March gain, still correcting from the 15.3% weather-impacted plunge in February. Despite the gains, starts are still below the recent high of 1,098k in July. Permits should improve to a 1,055k pace from a revised 1,042k in March (were 1,039k).
14:10 EDTAverages at session highs in afternoon trading
Stocks moved in a narrow range in the morning hours but have now broken out of their range and moved to new session highs this afternoon. The trading volume has been light, but advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 5:4. Oil prices are down roughly 0.5% and gold is flat. A bit after 2 pm EDT, the Dow is up 39 points, the Nasdaq is up 32 points and the S&P is up 7 points.
12:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched the May 7 high
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12:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is lively for a Monday
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is lively for a Monday with 8 major issuers on the docket. Early estimates are for a $20 B to $25 B week, and frontloaded into the long Memorial Day holiday. Siemens headlines with a big 6-part deal, with 3-year fixed and FRNs, along with 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year coupons. McDonald's has a 3-part deal, including 5s, 10s, and 30s. Scripps Networks Interactive has a $1.5 B 3-trancher with 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities. Emerson Electric has a benchmark 6.5-year and a 10-year. Credit Suisse has a benchmark 30-year. Westpac Banking Corp is offering 3-year fixed/FRN, and a 5-year note, while Itau Unibanco has as 3-year note. Entergy Texas is selling $250 M in 30-year paper. Last week's sales totaled just shy of $45 B and brought the month's volume up to nearly $100 B.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was strong
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11:16 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Lymphomas and CAR-T on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 28 at 11 am.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $45 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:14 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Immuno-oncology on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 27 at 3 pm.
11:11 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:09 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:07 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:06 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:06 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss multiple myeloma on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 20 at 2 pm.
11:02 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Glioblastoma on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 19 at 10 am.
10:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model is sending worrisome signs on the economy
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is sending worrisome signs on the economy, projecting only 0.7% growth, after rather accurately predicting the Q1 growth slowdown to near zero. But the WSJ's Hilsenrath says in his Grand Central blog (subscription), don't put too much weight on the current estimate, quoting the Atlanta Fed's research director Dave Altig, who said the estimate "isn't telling us much of anything right at the moment." What the model does, he explained, "is build up in a consistent and reasonable way toward a real-time quarterly forecast as data comes in." Analysts and most other Street economists are looking for Q2 growth to rebound to about a 2% to 2.5% pace.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: bonds didn't react bullishly to the disappointing NAHB
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was the only dollar pairing to react
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 2 points to 54 in May
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10:07 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 09:30
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10:07 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: yields are extending higher
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09:44 EDTStocks start week with relatively quiet open
Stock futures improved slightly during the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively flat open. The market begins the week near record levels and is looking for the catalyst to help propel shares higher. Investors will be watching the NAHB housing market index at 10:00 am EDT for clues on the housing sector.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied to intra day highs
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08:57 EDTPiper Jaffray biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are modestly lower as weakness from European bourses weighs
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08:44 EDTBofA/Merrill non-life insurance analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX rallied overnight
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08:29 EDTBofA/Merrill transportation analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Transportation Analyst Hoexter and Airlines Analyst Didora provide insight into the state of the transportation market as the mid-point of the 2Q is approaching, as well as an updated outlook for 2015, on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held to be held on May 18 at 11 am.
08:25 EDTFed dove Evans said the Fed weren't expecting the "pothole"
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08:22 EDTCowen healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:16 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility flat into Greek government credit uncertainty
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly lower
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07:54 EDTDA Davidson banks/thrifts analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:25 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
LatAm Growth Opportunities Conference 2015 is being held in London, England on May 18-19.
07:24 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2015 Payments & Card Conference is being held in Scottsdale, AZ on May 18-20.
07:03 EDTFutures slightly lower ahead of opening of new week
U.S. equity futures are below fair value following a weekend of quiet news flow. The first quarter earnings season is winding down and investors are beginning to look forward to the long Memorial Day weekend. Today’s focus will be on the housing data due out at 10:00am EDT with the release of the NAHB housing market index. Many have expressed concern that the housing rebound will remain muted for the foreseeable future as the Fed gears up to begin raising interest rates.
06:50 EDTFX Update: The euro has come under pressure
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06:27 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 18
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05:54 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
05:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has failed to sustain gains above 119.75
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro is consolidating in early week trade
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03:05 EDTFed dove Evans said that monetary Policy should be " sufficiently accommodative"
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May 17, 2015
11:02 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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11:02 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
April Consumer Price Index CPI will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
11:02 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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11:02 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey General Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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11:02 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
April Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.22M
11:02 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
April Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.029M
11:02 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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May 15, 2015
16:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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16:25 EDTTreasury reported foreign accounts sold $100.9 B in U.S. assets in March
Treasury reported foreign accounts sold $100.9 B in U.S. assets in March, after purchasing $28.8 B in February (revised up from $4.1 B). Private accounts dumped $90.5 B on the month, with official accounts liquidating $10.4 B. Data also show overseas investors bought $17.6 B in net long term assets in March after buying $20.9 B previously (revised from $9.8 B). Investors picked up $9.9 B in Treasury coupons (thanks to private accounts that bought $35.3 B, while official accounts sold $23.7 B), and $17.5 B in agencies, along with $18.8 B in corporates, while selling $14.9 B in stocks. China was the largest buyer of Treasuries at $37.3 B, followed by the Caribbean ($10.9 B), France ($10.2 B), and Switzerland ($10.1), with a massive $92.5 B sale from Belgium.
14:41 EDTAverage little changed and range bound as weekend approaches
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14:15 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: Treasury market conditions have calmed a lot since the big price swings in recent sessions which were blamed on positioning and the meltdown in Bunds. So, is it safe to get back into the market. Significant downward adjustments in Q1 GDP growth to -0.6%, according to the Median estimate, and signs of only moderate acceleration in Q2, have helped take a June Fed rate hike off the table. Though the 0.313% Median estimate for the September FOMC points to rate liftoff at the end of Q3, more data like today's will see tightening forecasts pushed out further. There isn't a lot of data next week and none should really alter the outlook. Housing starts are expected to rise further, back to 1.020 M, while existing home sale extend gains to a 5.222 M pace. CPI at the end of the week should post gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for the headline and core, respectively.
11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made its way up to 1.2067
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10:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: today's data should nail the coffin shut on a June hike
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10:30 EDTThe sharp May Michigan sentiment drop to 88.6
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended lower
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell after the weak Michigan sentiment
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09:55 EDTThe 0.3% U.S. April industrial production drop
The 0.3% U.S. April industrial production drop undershot assumptions, though it followed upward revisions that left the April index level only modestly below our estimate. The utility sector continued is unwind from the February all-time high alongside an ongoing mining sector contraction. Analysts did see a welcome 2.6% bounce in the vehicle assembly rate to a 12.0 M rate, and the manufacturing activity was flat. On a quarterly basis analysts expect a Q2 industrial production contraction rate that matches the 0.7% (was 1.0%) drop in Q1, which itself marked the worst quarter of the expansion. Before the early-2015 petro-led factory sector contraction, analysts saw quarterly growth rates throughout this expansion of 1%-9% that left a net factory sector outperformance of GDP. Industrial production is slowing to the 2% area in 2015 from 4.2% in 2014, 2.9% in 2013, and 3.8% in 2012. GDP is tracking 2.4% growth in 2015 that largely matches recent rates of 2.4% in 2014, 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.
09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:40 EDTTreasury Action: there wasn't much reaction
Treasury Action: there wasn't much reaction to the disappointing production data, though intermediate to longer dated yields remain lower on the day. The 10-year has hardly budged from the 2.19% area. German Bunds are outperforming slightly as they recover from the week's heavy losses with the yield down 4 bps to 0.66%. There's much more calm in the markets today and a new range trade is likely to develop near current levels. Equities have pared their gains, but worries over the growth slowdown are soothed by expectations the Fed will delay rate liftoff into at least September, if not 2016. There's also a little profit taking after record highs on the S&P yesterday.
09:36 EDTFutures weaken ahead of bell leading to quiet open
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09:30 EDTU.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in April
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar turned slightly lower
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09:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar was steady versus the euro
FX Action: The dollar was steady versus the euro, and moved briefly lower against the yen after the slight Empire State index miss, which was nonetheless much improved from the prior month. EUR-USD remains near session low around 1.1330, as USD-JPY trades in the 119.80s. Industrial production is up next at 9:15 EDT.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities may extend higher
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08:55 EDTTreasury Acton: the market is holding its gains
Treasury Acton: the market is holding its gains after a so-so Empire State report. The 10-year yield is stabilizing around, and this morning just below the 2.20% mark. The long bond has slid to 2.986%, and a close here would be the first time below the 3.0% level this week. The data are consistent with expectations for a moderate bounce-back in Q2 growth. Treasuries are also finding support from Europe as bond yields are lower too, with the exception of Greece. The corrective, position adjustments seem to have largely run their course, according to trading sources, and with supply out of the way, selling pressures are limited.
08:50 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 14:45
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08:50 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 02:20
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08:50 EDT Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker Speech to be released at 19:10
08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 09:00
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08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 13:00
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08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 13:30
08:50 EDTThe Empire State May bounce to 3.09
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08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index rose 4.3 points to 3.1 in May
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08:36 EDTFutures little changed following manufacturing data
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude stayed under the key $60 mark
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08:10 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The May Empire State Index is expected to rebound to 4.0 (median 4.0) after dropping to -1.2 in April. The April release included a decline in the forward looking new orders component to -6.0 from -2.4 which could pose downside risk to the release.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little firmer
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07:38 EDTFDA Gastroenterology and Urology Devices Panel holds a meeting
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07:17 EDTFutures point to higher open
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 15
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.83%, DAX up 0.45%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $59.54, natural gas down 0.13%, gold at $1216 an ounce, copper down 0.74%.
05:54 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled in the mid-119s
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03:19 EDTWeek of 5/27 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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03:19 EDTWeek of 5/18 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled near 1.1400
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May 14, 2015
16:28 EDTWeek of 5/22 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00
16:28 EDTWeek of 5/22 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:28 EDTWeek of 5/24 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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18:59 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 5/23 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 270K
16:20 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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15:55 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The May Empire State Index will be released Friday to kick off the month's sentiment data and the headline should climb to 4.0 (median 4.0) after dropping to -1.2 in April. The April release included a decline in the forward looking new orders component to -6.0 from -2.4 which could pose downside risk to the release.
15:40 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: fundamentals should come back into play
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14:40 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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14:17 EDTStocks near session highs in broad advance
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13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY did break through the 119 level
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: bond yields bounced
Treasury Action: bond yields bounced following the 30-year auction that came in shy of expectations after tailing out and a subpar cover. The current bond yield backed up over 2.06% briefly vs the 3.04% area ahead of the sale and compared to the 3.044% award rate on the new paper. That leaves the 3.10-3.12% area as the next target on the upside ahead of the 3.25% psych area, while the 3.00-2.95% zone reverts to yield support.
13:10 EDTTreasury's $16 B 30-year bond sale was on the sloppy side
Treasury's $16 B 30-year bond sale was on the sloppy side. The bond stopped at 3.044%, tailing out from 3.025%, after having richened a bit into the bid deadline. That rate compares to the 2.597% for April and is the highest award rate since November's 3.092%. There were $35.2 B in bids for a 2.20 cover, not better than last month's poor 2.18, and is a little below the 2.40 average. Indirect bidders accepted 50.8% and down from the prior 55.1%, though it's marginally above the 48.5% average. Direct bidders took 11.1% compared to the 7.5% in April. Primary dealers were awarded 38.0% versus 37.4%.
12:45 EDTU.S. bond technicals: yields backed up
U.S. bond technicals: yields backed up over a half percentage point on the cash bond from early April lows near 2.44% to May highs of 3.128% before steadying back near 3.055% currently heading into the $16 B auction results shortly. Thanks to the repricing of Bunds this has created quite a wide gap with both the 2.615% 200-day and 2.857% 100-day moving averages, which does leave some room for a mean reversion if not a bearish sea change in bond market sentiment. Near-term ranges are defined by Wednesday lows of 2.958% and Tuesday highs of 3.128% to set the next directional leg.
12:40 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview: outlooks are mixed
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been on the rise
FX Action: USD-CAD has been on the rise, touching 1.1997 highs as oil prices slip nearly $1/bbl to near $59.80. Gold prices have eased from session highs as well, as the greenback overall regains some poise following the continuation of recent weakness seen overnight. USD-CAD made four-month lows of 1.1920 in London, though solid fund, option and corporate buying interest, reportedly layered into the 1.1900 mark, stopped the decline. The dip in oil prices has since prompted some short covering.
11:45 EDTTreasury/Bund Option Action: mixed flows have featured
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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11:06 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:06 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828H45
11:05 EDTFly Audio player needs to be restarted
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10:45 EDTU.S. factory data revisions show a wide mix on the monthly numbers
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending May 8
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10:30 EDTA classic Twitter exchange on QE and art sales:
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10:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: a June Fed rate hike is off the table
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09:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed April PPI declines of 0.4% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, though analysts also saw a lean 264k initial claims level in the second week of May that left an encouraging mix of morning data overall. As seen with yesterday's trade price report, domestic energy prices remain depressed despite a WTI bounce, as core prices continue to drop in the face of a firm dollar and a weak global economy. Tight claims suggest upside risk to our 215k May payroll estimate, though analysts face downside risk from factory sentiment weakness and a lean ADP path.
09:39 EDTDow jumps in early trading after jobless claims sink to 15-year low
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09:30 EDTTreasury Futures Action: 10s are still holding a bid
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09:25 EDTThe 0.4% U.S. April PPI drop
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to a lean 264k
The 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to a lean 264k in the second week of May trimmed the prior week's 3k uptick to 265k to leave claims oscillating near the 262k cycle-low at the end of April. Claims are well below the 296k April BLS survey week reading, and have resumed the cyclical downtrend that became obscured in early-April by a temporary spike attributable to clumsy Easter seasonal factors. Claims are averaging just 264k in May, following higher prior averages of 281k in April, 285k in March, 306k in February and 290k in January. Next week's BLS survey week reading looks poised to undershoot prior BLS figures of 296k in April, 293k in March, 285k in February, and 301k in January. Analysts expect a 215k May nonfarm payroll gain that sits close to the 223k April rise but that beats the lean 85k March increase and the 184k Q1 average. Payrolls face upside risk from a tightening claims trajectory and heightened consumer confidence in the face of lower gasoline prices, though downside risk from factory sentiment weakness and a lean ADP trajectory through the 169k April rise.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities remained on a firmer tack
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI fell 0.4% in April with the core sliding 0.2%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped only briefly
Treasury Action: yields dipped only briefly following the drop in headline and core PPI, as another small drop in jobless claims from already low levels helped offset the disinflationary news. That still shows the Fed missing on its inflation mandate and making further progress on employment. The T-note yield ticked below 2.25% briefly before rebounding over 2.26%, compared to the 2.29-2.24% overnight range. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed back inside +170 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 1k to 264k in the week ended May 9
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08:35 EDTStock futures remain higher following economic reports
U.S. stock futures remain higher following the release of reports on producer prices and jobless claims. The data showed that producer prices fell 0.4% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the core reading was down 0.2% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. The weekly jobless claims showed that there were 265,000 initial claims versus expectations of 273,000 while continuing claims came in at 2.22M versus the expected 2.23M.
08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude edged briefly under the $60 mark
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:16 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Protecting Consumers: Financial Data Security in the Age of Computer Hackers" with CEO Pawlenty of Financial Services Roundtable and CEO Oxman of the Electronic Transactions Association on May 14 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
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08:14 EDTFDA Gastroenterology and Urology Devices Panel holds a meeting
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08:09 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:52 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:48 EDTWilliam Blair to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTFutures higher in quiet trading
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06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD logged a fresh three-month high
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 14
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05:52 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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03:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has dipped below 119.00
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02:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid
FX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid following yesterday's U.S. data misses, particularly the weak retail sales figure which sparked downward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates to the -0.7% area from the initially reported +0.2% figure. This has seen the dollar's yield advantage erode back to the 155 bp area at the 10-year T-note versus Bund comparison, down from above 160 bp. EUR-USD upside markers are provided yesterday's peak at 1.1383 and last Thursday's 10-week peak at 1.1392. USD-JPY has settled in the low 119s after dipping to a one-week low of 119.03 yesterday. The Tokyo high and the 100-day moving average at 119.35 now provide near-term resistance markers. Cable remains firm after clocking a five-month high at 1.5769 yesterday on data showing above-forecast UK wage data and a new cycle low in the unemployment rate. The dollar bloc currencies have posted fresh highs against the greenback. USD-CAD has dipped to a fresh four-month low at 1.1924, breaching a big-picture support region at 1.1950-1.2000. Steadier oil prices and the recent erosion in the U.S. dollar's yield advantage have been driving the pair lower. AUD-USD logged a four-month peak at 0.8163, and NZD-USD cracked to a nine-day peak at 0.7567 following strong NZ retail sales data.
May 13, 2015
16:40 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The Bund tantrum resumed on Wednesday after short respite, as growth divergence continues with the states thanks in part to past dollar strength. Eurozone Q1 GDP kicked higher, while U.S. retail sales in April were disappointingly flat, trade prices sank and business inventories grew only marginally. That same yield back-up helped attract foreign demand to the $24 B 10-year auction, but the celebration was a short one as the paper was soon back under water. Stocks managed to come out on top despite the headwinds from yields, though the dollar plunged on the consumption shortfall.
14:36 EDTAverages still searching for direction in afternoon trading
Stocks are mixed and near the flatline in afternoon trading, as has been the case for several hours. The early move was higher but it was short circuited when the weekly energy inventories revealed larger than expected draws for crude, gasoline, and distillates. Despite the drawdown in energy supplies the price of crude has moved back and forth across the flatline and is fractionally higher in afternoon trade. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4 and up volume is ahead of down volume by a similar margin.
14:25 EDTTreasury Action: curve steepeners remain in place
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13:35 EDTAtlanta Fed's Altig said raising rate soon is more costly
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13:23 EDTWeek of 5/23 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:23 EDTWeek of 5/22 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made 119.04 lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $24 B 10-year sale was so-so
Treasury's $24 B 10-year sale was so-so. The offering garnered solid statistics, but had to cheapen considerably to do so. The note tailed to 2.237% after already cheapening to 2.255% at the bid deadline. That award rate compares to 1.925% in April and is the highest since last May. Bids totaled $65.3 B for a 2,72 cover, up from the 2.62 previously and the 2.68 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 60.2%, also better than April's 58.5% and the 49.5% average, and is the best since December 2011. Direct bidders took 20.9%, more than double last month's 9.3%, while primary dealers accepted 18.9%, about half of the prior 32.2%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over lower
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12:40 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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11:55 EDTAtlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow estimate dipped to 0.7%
Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow estimate dipped to 0.7% from 0.8% previously following the retail trade report, placing it still well below the rough 4.25-2.60% consensus by Blue Chip economists. Next update will be following housing starts on May 19.
11:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: more info on Bunds
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: more dislocation on Bunds
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10:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed weakness across the retail sales, inventory and trade price data that signals both a downward Q1 GDP growth revision to the -0.7% area from 0.2% and downside risk to our 2.5% Q2 GDP forecast. A flat April retail sales figure leaves only a small two-month bounce after a three-month string of big price-led drops through February, with little apparent benefit from two quarters of cheap gasoline. The inventory data revealed an ongoing producer effort to trim lofty inventory levels as gauged by recessionary-highs for the I/S ratio, while trade price weakness reemerged after a two-month hiatus in response to a weak global economy and a soaring dollar.
10:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude briefly rallied
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of May 8
Crude oil inventories 2.19M draw vs. consensus of 250K draw. Gasoline inventories 1.1M draw vs. consensus of 250K build. Distillates 2.5M draw vs. consensus of 750K.
10:30 EDTThe 0.1% March U.S. business inventory rise
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows with stocks recovering some composure after muted opening gains, with the reasonable skew to the inventory/sales ratio at least not inflaming the slowdown story. The T-note yield found support under 2.20% after diving on retail and price shortfalls earlier and seems to be gravitating toward the 2.24% pivot again, which previously marked a double-top on a closing basis. Yesterday's high of 2.365% was the highest level since November and is starting to look like a blow-off high, assuming the bond market is not hijacked by animal spirits in Bunds again, leaving the 1.99% 100-day m.a. attracting.
10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose only 0.1% in March, with sales up 0.4%
U.S. business inventories rose only 0.1% in March, with sales up 0.4%. The 0.3% February inventory gain was revised lower to 0.2%, while the flat sales reading was bumped to -0.2%. Retailer inventories, the only new data in the report, increased 0.3% after rising 0.5% in February (revised from 0.4%). The inventory-sales ratio dipped to 1.36 from a revised 1.37 in February (was 1.36), still near an expansion high, and a recessionary level. This is yet another data disappointment that will weigh on Q1 GDP outlooks.
10:00 EDTBond market sell-off may not be sustainable
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09:50 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is heavier today
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09:37 EDTStocks rise at open despite flat retail sales
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09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures jerked higher
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. trade price report revealed surprising commodity-led weakness
The U.S. trade price report revealed surprising commodity-led weakness in April after a two month pause in the trade price downtrend that began with a six-month string of out-sized drops through January. The April bounce in petroleum prices was much smaller than expected, alongside food price declines and an eighth consecutive month of declines in export and import core prices. A soaring dollar and a weak global economy are still depressing trade prices overall despite February and March resilience and the small petroleum price rise in March and April. Export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-petroleum look poised for 2% declines through 2015, after a 2.9% decline over the twelve months of 2014 for ex-agriculture export prices and a flat figure for ex-petroleum import prices. For the remaining April inflation reports, analysts expect flat headline figures for both CPI and PCE chain prices with core price increases of 0.2% for CPI and 0.1% for PCE. Analysts expect 0.1% PPI headline and core price gains.
09:15 EDTThe flat April U.S. retail sales figure
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09:12 EDTHouse Committee on Small Business to hold a hearing
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09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to levels last seen on January 15
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08:57 EDTAtlantic Council holds a discussion on Silicon Valley
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields stumbled lower
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices slid 0.3% in April, while export prices fell 0.7%
U.S. import prices slid 0.3% in April, while export prices fell 0.7%. The 0.3% decline in March import prices was revised up a bit to -0.2%, while the 0.2% February gain was nudged down to -0.4%. March's 0.1% export price gain was not revised. As for the import side, weakness was broad-based outside of petroleum prices, which rose 1.0%. Excluding petroleum, prices fell 0.4%. Food and beverage prices declined 0.9%. Industrial supplies slipped 0.2% and capital goods were down 0.3%. Import prices with Canada and China were down 0.1%. As for exports, declines were across nearly every category, paced by a 1.5% slide in capital goods. Ag prices fell 0.8%. Excluding ag, export prices dropped 0.7%.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell
FX Action: The dollar fell after the weak retail sales outcome, and the drop in import prices. EUR-USD rallied to 1.1280 from under 1.1230, as USD-JPY dove toward 119.35 from 119.65. Equity futures remain higher, though off their best levels, while Treasury yields dipped.
08:40 EDTU.S. retail sales were flat in April, and rose 0.1% excluding autos
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08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD stayed down overnight
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities angling higher ahead
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08:33 EDTFutures remain higher following sales data
Stock futures remain modestly higher following the release of the advance retail sales data for the month of April. The report showed that retail sales broke even overall versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. Excluding autos and gas, the core reading was up 0.2% versus expectations of a 0.6% gain.
08:20 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. Import and Export Prices Preview
U.S. Import and Export Prices Preview: April trade price data will kick off the month's inflation data. Analysts expect to see import prices up 0.7% (median 0.2%) with export prices down by -0.2%. This follows March figures of -0.3% for imports and 0.1% for export prices. Petroleum prices had been holding down the import price index through the winter before finally posting gains in February and March, a trend that should continue in April.
08:05 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee holds meeting
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08:01 EDTSEC Equity Market Structure Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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08:00 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 3.5%
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07:45 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion on why securities regulations fail
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07:42 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials holds a hearing entitled, "The 35th Anniversary of the Staggers Rail Act: Railroad Deregulation Past, Present and Future" with acting Chairman Miller of the Surface Transportation Board on May 13 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:39 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:37 EDTFDA Blood Products Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:32 EDTFutures suggest slight market bounce
Stock futures are suggesting a slight bounce after the euro zone reported its fastest quarterly growth rate in nearly two years. Experts are saying that oil price tailwinds are helping the euro zone's economy. The bad news is that Greece has fallen back into a recession. Growth in China slowed once again, suggesting that Beijing will launch further stimulus measures. Today U.S. Investors will be watching advance retail sales figures and the weekly Department of Energy inventory reports.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly higher
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07:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied
Energy Action: NYMEX crude rallied after the N.Y. close on Tuesday, as the API reported a second consecutive fall in domestic crude stocks. The contract peaked at $61.58 after the data, and remained above the $61 mark into the N.Y. open. The move came despite an IEA report, which suggested global supplies continued to outstrip demand. RBPB gasoline meanwhile, remained firm, reclaiming the $2 handle, and peaking over $2.05/gallon. Natural gas futures were steady near $2.89/M BTU.
07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD stayed firm in the aftermath of EU GDP data. where France surprisingly outpaced Germany on the growth front. Sterling meanwhile, took a hit following the BoE's growth outlook downgrade, as USD-JPY remained in familiar territory in a tight trading range.. USD-CAD stayed under 1.2000 in London, as oil prices steadied near the top of their recent trading range. The U.S. calendar reveals April retail sales and April import/export prices, both at 8:30 EDT, followed by March business inventories at 10:00 EDT, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 10:30 EDT.
07:24 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:17 EDTAmerican Pain Society to hold annual scientific meeting
34th Annual Scientific Meeting is being held in Palm Springs, California on May 13-16.
06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD settled to an oscillation in the mid-1.12s
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06:28 EDTEuro zone's economy expanded 0.4% in Q1, NY Times reports
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06:07 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 13
Globex S&P futures are recently up 8.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.71%, DAX up 0.75%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $61.43, natural gas down 0.07%, gold at $1192 an ounce, copper up 0.02%.
05:45 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
03:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to oscillate around 120.00
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar remained generally soft
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02:25 EDTFX Update:
FX Update: The dollar remained generally soft, though EUR-USD has consolidated below yesterday's three-day peak at 1.1279. The market bought into the 'encouraging progress' line from the Eurogroup on Monday, while the move has correlated with a renewed surge in Bund yields. USD-JPY has continued to oscillate around the 120.00 level, trading back below here after yesterday leaving a one-week high at 120.28. Sterling has outperformed notably since the election last Friday, given added fuel by above-forecast UK March industrial output data on Tuesday, which imply a modest upside revision to Q1 GDP. USD-CAD has fallen back and tested the 1.2000 level following the latest phase of U.S. dollar weakness and rise in oil prices.
May 12, 2015
16:25 EDTU.S. Import and Export Prices Preview
U.S. Import and Export Prices Preview: April trade price data is out on Wednesday to kick off the month's inflation data. Analysts expect to see import prices up 0.7% (median 0.2%) with export prices down by -0.2%. This follows March figures of -0.3% for imports and 0.1% for export prices. Petroleum prices had been holding down the import price index through the winter before finally posting gains in February and March, a trend that should continue in April.
16:25 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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16:22 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:22 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:22 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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16:20 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:36 EDTStocks off worst levels, Dow moves into positive ground
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14:15 EDTU.S. Treasury posted a $156.7 B budget surplus in April
U.S. Treasury posted a $156.7 B budget surplus in April, some 46.7% y/y wider than the $106.9 B amount posted in April 2014. This brought the fiscal year deficit to $282.8 B, which is a 7.7% y/y improvement from the -$306.4 B reported for the same 7 months last year. April receipts rose 13.9% y/y, while outlay's increased 2.5%.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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13:50 EDTU.S. budget deficit preview:
U.S. budget deficit preview: The Treasury is expected to report a $155 B surplus for April (median $141.0 B), versus -$52.9 B in March and a $106.9 B surplus in April of last year. This estimate aligns with the CBO Monthly Budget Review released May 7. Forecast risk is upward, however, as a delay in refunds could push the headline higher. Turbo-tax temporarily suspended state e-filings as a result of a surge in fraudulent submissions. Investigation into this issue could explain the lower than anticipated February refund figure. preview.
13:30 EDTAsia's Growth Outlook Under Assault from Exports:
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04:05 EDTS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index to be reported at 09:00
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13:15 EDTTreasury 3-year auction was very strong
Treasury 3-year auction was very strong. The note stopped through at 1.000% versus 1.010% at the bid deadline (and compares to April's 0.865%). Bids totaled $80.1 B for a 3.34 cover, better than last month's 3.25 and the 3.29 average. And it ties February for the highest cover since October. Indirect bidders took a hefty 52.7%, versus 49.4% previously and the 39.1% average, the best since December 2009. Direct bidders were awarded 11.6%, in line with April's 11.1%, while primary dealers took 35.7% versus 39.5% previously.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields scampered lower still
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13:00 EDTFed's Williams said he prefers rate liftoff "starting a bit earlier"
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12:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has bottomed at 119.79
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12:40 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview: there's increased optimism on the auction
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12:10 EDTOPEC raised world oil demand growth forecasts
OPEC raised world oil demand growth forecasts to 1.18 M/bpd from 1.17 M/bpd in their monthly report earlier, looking for further strengthening in demand into 2015. OPEC lifted its 2015 crude oil demand forecast to to 29.32 M/bpd from 29.27 M/bpd. It left non-OPEC supply growth steady at 680k/bpd and cut U.S. production forecasts by 40k/bpd to 700k/bpd. At the same time OPEC output increased 18k/bpd to 30.84 M/bpd thanks to increased Saudi, Iraq and Iran pumping, while the Saudis expect to product 10.308 M/bpd in April compared to 10.294 M in March. Overall this news earlier helped keep NYMEX crude supported over $60 bbl.
12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched session lows of 1.1979
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11:45 EDTTreasury $40 B 4-week bill auction was well received
Treasury $40 B 4-week bill auction was well received. The bill tailed slightly, however, stopping at 0.010% versus 0.005% at the bid deadline. There were $157.7 B in bids for a solid 3.95 cover, which is a little better than last week's 3.83 and the 3.78 average, even with the $10 B increase in size. Indirect bidders took 31.4%, almost double last week's 16.0%, and above the 27.9% average.
11:30 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped higher
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11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: though corporates have been jumping in
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10:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are quite mixed
Euro$ interest rate futures are quite mixed with the near-dates making up some lost ground as stocks remain heavy, but the deferreds remain underwater on the mini-margin call tantrum on bonds of late. The December 2015 contract is 1-tick higher at 99.405, while the deferreds range from +1 tick higher to 3.5-ticks lower out the curve. SF Fed dove Williams is due later, but is likely to reprise his fairly upbeat views on the economy, which won't necessarily offer much relief to the rate complex.
10:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning in the belly
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10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings fell 150k to 4,994k in March
U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings fell 150k to 4,994k in March after a 179k increase in February to 5,144k (revised from +168k to 5,133k), which was a 14-year high. The job openings rate slipped to 3.4% versus 3.5% previously. Hirings increased 56k following a revised 17k gain in February (was -78k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (February was revised from 3.5%). There was a 63k rise in quitters after a 59k drop previously (revised from -92k). The quit rate edged up to 2.0% from 1.9%. The data are old and don't tell anything new, so the market focus will remain on the big swings in prices.
10:08 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: "high-delta" put demand
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09:38 EDTStocks follow lead of bond markets lower
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09:35 EDTOPEC discredited WSJ article on future oil prices
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09:26 EDTArgus healthcare analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analyst Toung, along with Research Director Kelleher, discuss the economy and markets, and factors including demographics, rising healthcare utilization and the Affordable Care Act on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 13 at 11 am.
09:25 EDTU.S. small business optimism rose 1.7-points to 96.9 in April
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09:20 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook: the auction could be sloppy
Treasury 3-year auction outlook: the auction could be sloppy given the big price moves of late. And demand could be somewhat limited amid the massive global disgorging in bonds, though most of the weakness has been at the long end. Indeed, some trading sources believe the big run up in rates should bring in decent demand. The wi 3-year rate surged over 5 bps in Asian action overnight to hit 1.065%, but it's faded to 1.040% currently. It traded as rich as 0.93% on Friday. Supporting the auction should be this concession. A stop here would be one of the cheapest this year, though it traded as high as 1.104% in March. Also there is a $3 B paydown for the entire refunding, so there is a lot of money being put back to work. The 3-year is the tightest issue in repo at -1.54%. Fed rate liftoff expectations have also been pushed back from June. Many may also want to own this issue versus the 10s or 30s, on sale Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Indirect bidding should remain solid, especially with negative yields on many short dated European notes.However, the selloff and the liquidity issues may leave some potential buyers sidelined. The April note sold at 0.865% and garnered a 3.25 cover (3.29 average) and a 49.4% indirect bid (39.1%).
09:19 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:16 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:45 EDTFedspeak is due from SF Fed dove Williams
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are trading heavily
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08:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude took its lead from a weaker dollar
Energy Action: NYMEX crude took its lead from a weaker dollar, and rallied back over $60/bbl, touching $60.51 highs, after closing the N.Y. session on Monday near $59.20. The rally comes despite an estimated global over-supply of nearly 2 M bpd, with sources saying gains will be difficult to hold on to. In fact, WTI prices over $60 will bring marginal U.S. shale producers back on line, exacerbating the supply glut. RBOB gasoline futures meanwhile, are up nearly 5 cents/gallon, approaching $2.03, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.66/gallon, up three cents from a week ago, and up 27 cents from a month ago, according to AAA data. Natural gas futures are back down to $2.84/M BTU, after making nearly three-month highs over $2.93 on Monday.
08:12 EDTNew York Association for Business Economics holds a luncheon meeting
The New York Association for Business Economics holds a luncheon meeting with guest speaker, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Williams, who speaks on the economic outlook in New York on May 12 at 12:45 pm.
08:08 EDTFDA to hold a forum
Regulatory Education for Industry (REdI): Generic Drugs Forum is being held in Denver on May 12-13.
08:05 EDTU.S. chain store sales fell 1.7% in the week ended May 9
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08:05 EDTFed dodges bullets in Shelby reform proposals:
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08:00 EDTImperial Capital to hold a summit
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08:00 EDTFDA Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee holds a meeting
The Committee discusses the development and licensure of Ebola vaccines in a meeting being held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on May 12 at 8:30 am. Webcast Link
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: the global bond rout continues
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07:50 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley applauded the market-FOMC consensus
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07:47 EDTFitch to hold a summit
4th Annual Risk Americas & Regulation Summit is being held in New York on May 12-13.
07:46 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:45 EDTJefferies to hold a summit
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07:45 EDTFX Update: Sterling was a big mover
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTFutures suggest sharp sell-off
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06:51 EDTGreece used emergency reserves to make IMF payment, Reuters reports
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06:46 EDTChina says growth in April was 'reasonable,' Reuters reports
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 12
Globex S&P futures are recently down 16.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.02%, DAX down 2.91%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $59.68, natural gas down 2.22%, gold at $1183 an ounce, copper up 0.90%.
05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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03:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY ebbed back toward 120.00
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD continued to make time in the 1.11s
FX Update: EUR-USD continued to make time in the 1.11s after dipping to a one-week low at 1.1130 on Monday. Yesterday's statement from the Eurogroup reported progress in bailout negotiations with Greece, but said that more time and effort are needed to bridge the gaps. Elsewhere, USD-JPY rose to a one-week high of 120.28, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also gained. BoJ Governor Kuroda said today that the central bank is not thinking of cutting interest on excess reserves. Sterling continued its post-election outperformance. Cable hit its highest level since Dec-13 in making 1.5613, since settling in the upper-1.55s. EUR-GBP hit a two-week low at 0.7141, reversing sharping from the pre-election peak at 0.7486. The election result is a relief for markets, while tomorrow's monthly labour market report is expected to should show both the claimant count and unemployment rates falling to new cycle lows. Weakness in the UK BRC April retail sales report was downplayed as a consequence of the timing of Easter this year. AUD-USD logged a two-day high at 0.7940, aided by a strong Australian home loans data, and after Fitch ratings stated, "There is still little evidence to suggest Australia's AAA rating will come under threat over our usual rating horizon of about two years."
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