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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 8, 2015
17:06 EDTWeek of 4/17 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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16:10 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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15:17 EDTPowerShares Commodity Index volatility elevated as index near record low
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury yields backed up into supply and the FOMC minutes, propped up by modest gains in stocks as well after a mega-merger in the oil sector. Though both Fed's Dudley and Powell mulled a rate hike as early as June, neither was really in a rush. But, like a bad drinking game, every time the Fed said "June" whether in commentary or the minutes, the result was a predictable uptick in rates, especially at the short-end. The 10-year reopening met decent demand, particularly from foreign accounts.
14:55 EDTCanada Starts, Permits and New Home Price Preview
Canada Starts, Permits and New Home Price Preview: Housing starts are expected to improve to a 170.0k unit rate in March (median 175.0k) from the lean 156.3k clip in February. Permits are seen rising 3.0% m/m in January after the 12.9% drop in December. The new home price index is projected to fall 0.1% m/m in January after the 0.1% drop in December. and permits preview for more on Thursday's releases.
14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed moderately
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields oscillated below highs
Treasury Action: yields oscillated below highs after the Fed minutes mulled both a hike in June and delay, as expected. Those who wanted delay, however, were concerned about the deflationary impact of the firm dollar and weak oil. Gradual hikes when they come are also anticipated. The T-note yield again stalled under 1.925% - below Tuesday highs. Yet short yields snugged up with the 2-year yield up to 0.547% and this flattened the 2s-10s spread to +137 bp from the +140 bp area earlier.
14:15 EDTFOMC minutes showed a division on the timing of rate liftoff
FOMC minutes showed a division on the timing of rate liftoff, not surprisingly. The minutes to the March 17, 18 policy meeting showed several Committee members wanting a June hike, others later in the year, and a couple thought the economic outlook wouldn't call for a tightening until 2016. Nearly all, however, favored the removal of the word "patient" from the statement, which is what occurred. Several members expected a rather gradual pace of normalization. Almost all policymakers were concerned about risks from overseas, with several noting a drag from the stronger dollar. China and Greece were also cited as risks. The minutes don't add much to the body of knowledge, and especially after some weaker than expected economic data have clouded the outlook.
14:04 EDT'Several' Fed members see June as likely for rate hike
Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting read, "Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting. However, others anticipated that the effects of energy price declines and the dollarís appreciation would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions likely would not be appropriate to begin raising rates until later in the year, and a couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook likely would not call for liftoff until 2016."
13:35 EDTU.S. equities are holding on to gains
U.S. equities are holding on to gains heading toward the FOMC minutes, with low expectations of any major revelations, though still some caution in advance. The major U.S. indices are 0.25-0.60% higher led by NASDAQ even after Europe rolled 0.69% lower into the close on the Euro Stoxx 50. Biggest gainers in the Dow are Visa +1.3%, NIKE +1.0% and Disney +1.0%, while on the downside Exxon -1.5% and Chevron -1.3% have been paced lower by the surplus of crude inventories on the verge of spilling over at Cushing, which has sent WTI knocking on the door of $50 bbl again after a 5.6% drop.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $21 B 10-year reopening was well received
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over from highs
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13:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has continued to slide
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
Treasury 10-year auction preview: the auction should see good demand from indirect bidders, but dealer interest may be light. The wi trades at 1.93%, having cheapened over 3 bps on the morning, but it may not be suffienent to bring in heavy demand since it would still be the richest award rate going back nearly 2 years. Additionally, the note is relatively rich on the curve at 139 bps versus the 2-year. There are some brewing inflation expectations too, with the FOMC still expected to start bumping up rates later this year. On the other hand, the note is on special in the repo market at -1.80%. There should be a solid indirect bid given wide spreads to foreign sovereigns (the Bund hit 0.15% this morning). Some real money demand was reported from Asia overnight, as investors are back in the market after fiscal year end on March 31. Indeed, indirect bidding has topped 50% in the last 4 auctions. The March note stopped at 2.139% and garnered a 58.6% indirect (48.4% average), and a 2.65 cover (2.69 average).
12:30 EDTFOMC minutes preview: the minutes lost some of their importance
FOMC minutes preview: the minutes lost some of their importance after the jobs data suggested a rather different economic environment than what existed at the March 17, 18 meeting. While the minutes will be seen as old news, it will be instructive nevertheless to read the thinking at the time. Remember the FOMC dropped "patient," while outlining a more tepid view on the economy in the policy statement as well as via the growth and inflation forecasts, and the new dot-plot. It's likely too that there will be more of a presence of the hawkish point of view that wasn't so visible in the Fed's releases, or Yellen's press conference. But, that stance should be taken with a grain of salt with the doves in clear control of the Committee, and as the two most ardent hawks, Plosser and Fisher, have retired.
12:28 EDTWeek of 4/17 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2548
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2548, up better than 100 points from opening levels. The greenback's general resurgence allowed the pairing to rise, while the sell-off in oil prices supported as well. WTI crude slid over 4% on the session, touching $51.36 lows after the large EIA reported crude inventory build. USD-CAD touched six-week lows of 1.2388 overnight, before this morning's rally, levels that have provided solid support since the beginning of February.
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: position liquidation
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