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December 7, 2012
06:42 EDTBoehner, Obama now sole participants in cliff talks, NY Times says
Republican House Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama are now the only two major figures negotiating a resolution to the fiscal cliff, as senators and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi have been excluded from the talks, according to The New York Times. The change was made at Boehner's request, the newspaper reported. Reference Link
News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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December 1, 2015
16:37 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
15:34 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Brainard speaks on monetary policy
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard participates in the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Associates' Meeting with a speech entitled, "Lower Neutral Rate and its Implications for Monetary Policy" in Stanford, California on December 1 at 8 pm.
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Led by the long-end, yields spilled lower on Tuesday to mark the first of December after ISM manufacturing index pulled up short for November. There was modest repricing of Fed lift-off risk later this month, though not sufficient in our minds to defer the move. Construction spending was healthy as were auto sales, though final Markit PMI remained subpar. Fed dove Evans dithered over the semantics of gradualism, but remained on the fence about a hike while inflation continued to underachieve, for fear of turning Japanese.
15:24 EDTWeek of 12/12 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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13:55 EDTDollar swap spreads have stabilized
Dollar swap spreads have stabilized somewhat after narrowing to unprecedented negative levels across much of the curve where all but the 2-year swap spread fell into negative territory in November. The 3-year spread is back at +1.25 bp (mid) from -3 bp lows in November and the 2-year spread bounced from November narrows of 3.75 bp back to the 6 bp area. The 10-year spread based at -18.25 bp and rebounded to -12.75 bp, while the 30-year hit -50.75 bp before recovering to -43.75. That trend has reportedly been amplified by more stringent bank capital requirements and distortions in the repo markets following the financial crisis and emergency ZIRP policy settings. Perhaps some Fed policy normalization will help begin to unwind the deep swap curve inversion?
13:25 EDTTreasury Action: a 25 bp rate hike is still ours and the markets' best guess
Treasury Action: a 25 bp rate hike is still ours and the markets' best guess heading into the December 15, 16 policy meeting. However, the yield on the 2-year note has fallen 4 bps to 0.899% in response to the ISM miss and some dovish comments from the Fed's Evans. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures are showing abuot 70% risk for liftoff in two weeks, versus nearly 75% before the data. The FOMC again finds itself between a rock and a hard place, in large part due to its attempt at transparency. The data dependency mantra has been in play for months and the strong jobs report supported the case for liftoff this month. However, other data, including today's ISM and trends in inflation, productivity, don't necessarily argue for tightening, at least not according to the FOMC's criteria. Analysts suspect Fed Chair Yellen will reiterate that it's appropriate to begin normalizing rates, but won't pin it to a time frame. She'll also stress that it's the path of interest rates that is important.
13:03 EDTGallup US ECI level data reported
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13:00 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans reiterated he favors later liftoff than his peers
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12:35 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised down to 1.4% for Q4
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $45 B 4-week bill sale was soft despite recent cheapening
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11:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures powered higher
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11:25 EDTNY Fed's Liberty Street blog notes the NYFRB's model
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY selling continued
FX Action: USD-JPY selling continued after the initial drop post-ISM, putting in a 122.80 low, after peaking at 123.19 at the N.Y. open. The pairing has since stabilized dover the 80 level, as Wall Street regains some poise. Japanese selling interest over 123.00 has kept yen bears frustrated for the past couple of weeks, though support is expected into 122.26, which represents the recent lows.
11:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a hefty November ISM plunge to a new expansion-low of 48.6, though analysts also saw a round of upside construction spending surprises via a 1.0% October climb in the aggregate following upward Q3 revisions that lifted our assumed growth clip for Q3 GDP back to an unrevised 2.1%. Analysts are also seeing another firm round of vehicle sales figures in November that should leave a third consecutive month with a sales clip near a cycle-high 18.1 M pace. It's clear that analysts're seeing a hefty hit to the factory sector from the inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, and a big petro-sector hit from oil price declines, though the construction sector will show a solid Q4 performance, and consumer demand for vehicles remains robust.
10:55 EDTThe U.S. construction spending report beat estimates
The U.S. construction spending report beat estimates with a 1.0% October rise after August and September boosts that left a solid path for new residential and public construction into Q4 with firm nonresidential figures, alongside downward bumps in the home improvement residual. Analysts've raised our Q3 GDP estimate back to an unrevised 2.1%, and our estimated 2% growth clip in Q4 now faces some upside risk from the construction sector. For Q3 GDP component revisions, analysts now expect hikes of $1 B for both residential and public construction and a $1 B boost from equipment spending, but a $4 B downward bump in factory inventories. Analysts expect GDP growth of 2.0% in Q4, with a 17% (was 13%) Q4 pace in real residential construction after an estimated 8.1% (was 7.3%) rate in Q3, and a 1% (was flat) Q4 real nonresidential construction figure after a 7.1% contraction rate in Q3. Growth in real government purchases is pegged at 0.8% in Q4 after a 1.8% (was 1.7%) Q3 clip.
10:35 EDTU.S. equities finally ran out of steam
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10:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the drop in the ISM puts a wrinkle in the Fed's view
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10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM plunge to a 48.6 new expansion-low
The U.S. ISM plunge to a 48.6 new expansion-low from a 50.1 two-year low in October left a four-month stretch of weak readings that lie well below the early-2015 low-point of 51.5 in March and April. Today's ISM plunge follows a Chicago PMI drop to 48.7 from a 56.2 nine-month high, a Dallas Fed rise to -4.9 from -12.7, versus a -20.8 expansion-low in May, a Richmond Fed drop to -3.0 from -1.0, a Philly Fed rise to 1.9 from -4.5, and an Empire State uptick to -10.74 from -11.36. Analysts expect an ISM-NMI drop to 57.5 from 59.1. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys of just 50 for a third consecutive month, versus 51 in August as also seen over the three months ending in May, before the temporary June-July bounce to 53. Analysts saw a 56 cycle-high in July of 2014 that was also seen in February and March of 2011. Analysts expect GDP growth of just 2.0% in Q4 and Q3 (estimated revision from 2.1%), after growth of 3.9% in Q2 and 0.6% in Q1. Analysts expect a 1% Q4 industrial production drop after a 1.9% rate of climb in Q3, but contraction rates of 2.4% in Q2 and 0.3% in Q1.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended their slide
Treasury Action: yields extended their slide in the wake of the dive in the ISM manufacturing index below the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since November 2012, though the employment index actually rose and prices paid plunged. In contrast, construction spending was quite firm and stocks are extending their rally. The T-note yield probed below 2.19% after another failed clearance of 2.25% in Asia, though the 2.17-2.15% support zone may return ahead of Yellen speeches, the ECB and payrolls later in the week. The 2s-10s spread continues to sink another 2-3 bp to +126 bp as the long-end outperforms led by the long bond.
10:10 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing
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