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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 4, 2015
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: running with the bulls
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12:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased modestly
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12:10 EDTRisk of further technical selling on stocks
Risk of further technical selling on stocks is being cited in a JP Morgan study on liquidation by trend-following strategies of CTAs, Risk Parity (RP) portfolios, Volatility Targeting (VT) strategies, Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds and ETFs following the jump in volatility on Black Monday (August 24). Each group has a different timeline to adjust to increased vol, potentially leading to rolling liquidation to adjust various portfolios or strategies. As they conclude, "In summary, analysts estimate that only about half (or slightly more than half) of total technical selling was completed to-date (mostly completed by VT funds, half by CTAs, and a smaller fraction by RPs). Analysts estimate that a further approximate $100 billion of selling remains to be completed over the next 1-3 weeks. As a result, analysts expect elevated volatility and downside price risk to persist. In our view, the risk/reward for equity investors remains in favor of waiting, rather than being fully invested until there is more clarity from macro data and central banks." The report has been widely cited, starting with Zero Hedge yesterday.
11:35 EDTTreasury Curve Action: And more flattening
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10:26 EDTCredit Suisse chief economist holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:23 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 4 at 11 am.
10:21 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:20 EDTJobs Data Firm in August, Despite Payroll Shortfall:
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10:05 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening has prevailed
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09:55 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
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09:46 EDTStocks slide at open after lower than expected monthly rise in U.S. jobs
U.S. stocks are sharply lower in early trading after the government reported 173,000 nonfarm jobs were added in the U.S. last month, missing analysts' consensus projection that payrolls grew 217,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.1%, which was down from 5.3% previously and below the 5.2% consensus forecast. The dip in the unemployment rate and other underlying data in the report appears to be leading investors to believe that the Fed will likely raise interest rates later this month. In early trading the averages are off their opening lows but still deep in the red, with the Dow down 200 points, the Nasdaq down 38 points and the S&P down 22 points.
09:35 EDTThe U.S. jobs report
The U.S. jobs report tracked expectations on net, despite the kneejerk focus on the lean 173k August payroll gain. Analysts saw 44k in upward revisions that left the August level of payrolls in line with estimates. Analysts saw a second month with the workweek at a cycle-high 34.6, alongside a big 0.4% August hours-worked gain, though it followed a trimming in the July rise to 0.2% from 0.5%. Hourly earnings beat estimates with a 0.3% climb. The 196k civilian employment rise was respectable, while a 41k labor force drop allowed a plunge in the jobless rate to a 5.11% new cycle-low. The bad news in the report was a skewing in employment strength toward the government sector, where analysts saw a 33k August gain after 39k in upward revisions, and a weak goods sector, where analysts saw a lean 0.1% hours-worked rise that included a 0.4% gain for construction, but declines of 0.1% for factories and 1.2% for mining. Goods sector jobs posted a surprising 24k drop, with a 3k gain for construction but declines of 17k for factories and 10k for mining.
09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: it's not about the August jobs report
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09:20 EDTMore from Fed hawk Lacker: jobs report was "good
More from Fed hawk Lacker: jobs report was "good, but it doesn't change the picture for monetary policy." This followed his earlier hawkish opinion that the report wouldn't materially alter the policy picture, since he was already an advocate of a rate hike as soon as September. That said, analysts already know the Fed has met its employment mandate, it's just that it needs to have sufficient confidence on the inflation front, which it has been missing while commodities plunge and the dollar advances. This global disinflation has been amplified by the slowdown, devaluation and volatility in China. Hence, the Fed's conundrum.
09:15 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook
For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook, analysts're poised for a sturdy 2.8% growth clip for hours-worked in Q3 that signals upside risk for Q3 GDP, following a lean 1.0% hours-worked clip in Q2 but a respectable 2.2% rate in Q1 that left the opposite Q1-Q2 growth zigzag than seen with GDP growth. Analysts expect a 3.0% growth clip for GDP in Q3 after an expected Q2 growth boost to 3.8% from 3.7%. The Q2 GDP boost reflects expected upward bumps of $5 B for construction and $2 B for net exports, but a $4 B trimming for factory inventories. More generally, hours-worked have beat assumptions since 2013, with Q4/Q4 growth of an estimated 1.9% in 2015 after a 2.5% 2014 climb. Productivity growth has weakened accordingly, with an estimated Q4/Q4 2015 rise of just 1.2% after a flat 2014 figure. For quarterly figures, analysts expect a 1.0% Q3 productivity rise after a 3.3% Q2 climb, but prior contraction rates of 1.1% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q4 of last year. Payroll growth has moderated in 2015 after a Q4 pop and a relatively firm 2014, given a 212k year-to-date average monthly payroll gain in 2015 that compares to a 324k average in Q4 and a 260k average for 2014 overall.
09:10 EDTFed funds futuers are slipping lower on the jobs report
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures rolled over
Euro$ interest rate futures rolled over with Fed tightening expectations heightened by the firmer underlying picture in the jobs report, despite the lower headline gain. A number of reports from Goldman and WSJ's Hilsenrath overnight also cited the seasonal tendency for the jobs data to be revised subsequently higher, which will no doubt prove true for August as well. The December 2015 contract is 1.5-ticks lower at 99.51 (0.490% implied 3-month rate) compared to highs yesterday near 99.545 (0.455%). The nearby deferreds are as much as 3.5-ticks lower, while further out the curve they are as much as 3.5-ticks firmer -- steepening the strip, but an effective flattening of the curve in yield terms. In other words, go ahead Fed and get started, but at a gradual path.
09:05 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on other August reports
For the U.S. jobs data impact on other August reports, analysts assume a 0.4% personal income gain that matches the increases in each of the last four months. Our estimate implies Q3 growth of 5.0% for total income and 4.9% for disposable income, after Q2 growth at rates of 3.8% and 3.5%. Industrial production is poised for a 0.2% August drop after the big 0.6% July pop that may be trimmed, and a 0.1% June rise that broke a five-month string of 0.1%-0.3% declines. Analysts saw hours-worked declines of 0.1% for factories and 1.2% for mining. Analysts assume a 1% August utility decline after the 1.0% July drop, as utilities remain depressed by mild weather. Analysts expect a 7% August vehicle assembly rate drop to a 12.6 M clip after the July retooling spike to a 13.6 M cycle-high. Analysts expect a 1.8% growth rate for industrial production in Q3, after contraction rates of 2.0% in Q2 and 0.2% in Q1 that marked the worst two quarters of the expansion. For construction, hours-worked rose by 0.4% in August with a 3k construction payroll rise. Analysts expect a 0.6% August construction spending rise, after surprisingly firm gains since February.
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell from 1.3245 to 1.3164
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08:45 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 173k in August
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