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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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May 28, 2015
08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims data for the week of May 23rd should reveal a headline rise of 6k to 280k (median 271k) following last week's increase to 274k from 264k in the week prior. Claims have struck a lean path in May and look poised to average 270k from 281k in April. This would support our forecast for headline employment of 215k for the month.
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on new May lows
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed in light volume
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07:50 EDTCanada Current Account Preview
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07:50 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI to fall 0.1% m/m in April (median -0.1%) after the 0.3% gain in March. Analysts have a witches' brew of ingredients for the April IPPI forecast: Gasoline prices were roughly flat on a month average basis, the BoC's commodity price index surged while the Canadian dollar appreciated versus the USD (on a month average basis). Hence, the forecast risk is all over the place, but analysts would lean towards the downside given the 2.2% appreciation in the CAD versus the USD. The RMPI is projected to rise 3.0% in April as oil prices rose +12.5% to $54/bbl from $48/bbl.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: USD-JPY was the big FX story overnight, as the pairing touched 124.30, a 13-year high. The yen move prompted another winning day for the Nikkei, which posted its 10th straight day of gains, a feat not seen since 1988. EUR-USD meanwhile, bounced toward 1.0950, though with no Greece agreement in sight, and the ECB warning of contagion risk should an accord not be forthcoming, the euro is now back under the 1.0900 level. USD-CAD meanwhile has printed the 1.2500 mark, with early North American buyers reported. WTI crude is back near recent lows, trading under $57.50. The U.S. calendar reveals weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EDT, April pending home sales at 10:00 EDT, and weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 11:00 EDT.
07:26 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:24 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
4th Annual Montreal Commodities Conference is being held in Montreal on May 28.
07:10 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY logged traded at its highest since 2002
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06:52 EDTFutures flat despite China selloff
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 28
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.39%, DAX down 0.32%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $57.78, natural gas down 0.21%, gold at $1190 an ounce, copper up 0.10%.
05:58 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
02:50 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY logged the highest level since 2002
FX Update: USD-JPY logged the highest level since 2002, the AUD took at hit on unambiguously weak capital expenditure data out of Australia, while EUR-USD recouped to the 1.0900 area after leaving a one-month low at 1.0831 yesterday. There has been no change in the dominant bearish EUR-USD narrative: a continued lack of substantive progress in Greece's bailout negotiations with its creditors, and a dollar benefiting from the rekindled Fed tightening narrative. EUR-USD's high at 1.0929 and the 50-day moving average at 1.0955 provide upside markers. USD-JPY took out the June 2007 high at 124.16 before settling back under 124.00, leaving a 12-year peak at 124.30 on the nominal price chart. The December 2002 high at 125.72 provides the next big-picture focal point. The yen also logged a nine-day low against the euro today, with the Japanese currency winning the race to the underperformer of the week title. Although BoJ deputy governor Iwata said yesterday that he sees no need for further easing, the ultra loose 'Abecomics' monetary policies are still likely to be remaining in force when the Fed eventually reaches rate hike lift-off.
May 27, 2015
22:25 EDTPhilippine Q1 GDP grew 5.2% y/y
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17:41 EDT St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard Speech to be released at 16:00
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17:41 EDTWeek of 6/5 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
17:41 EDTWeek of 6/5 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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17:30 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims data for the week of May 23rd is out Thursday and should reveal a headline of 280k (median 271k) following last week's increase to 274k from 264k in the week prior to that. Claims have struck a lean path in May and look poised to average 270k from 281k in April. This would support our forecast for headline employment of 215k for the month.
16:15 EDTCanada Current Account Preview
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16:15 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI, due Thursday, to fall 0.1% m/m in April (median -0.1%) after the 0.3% gain in March. Analysts have a witches' brew of ingredients for the April IPPI forecast: Gasoline prices were roughly flat on a month average basis, the BoC's commodity price index surged while the Canadian dollar appreciated versus the USD (on a month average basis). Hence, the Forecast risk is all over the place, but analysts would lean towards the downside given the 2.2% appreciation in the CAD versus the USD. The RMPI is projected to rise 3.0% in April as oil prices rose +12.5% to $54/bbl from $48/bbl.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: An outbreak of optimism on Greece was set in motion by lopsided comments from PM Tsipras, who suggested that a draft deal with Greece's creditors was close. Though that urgent hope was largely discredited by those same creditors, it was not before a surge in risk-on trade drove yields, stocks and the euro to session highs, in contrast to the morose tone in the markets the day prior. The lack of data ensured that the markets would be more reactive to such posturing. 5-year auction results were mixed, but mostly bond friendly, while Bill Gross of Janus revisited his Bund short bet that raced ahead of his fund's execution.
14:22 EDTAverages higher, range-bound in afternoon trading
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14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY traded to 124.07 highs
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13:55 EDTU.S. equities continue to forge higher
U.S. equities continue to forge higher into the close despite the Greek accord draft optimism being largely dis-credited and the euro stalling out again under $1.09. If nothing else, this episode seemed to flag risk-on activity as the bigger short-term risk for stocks, yields and the dollar. The NASDAQ has clambered back over 1.15% higher and pulled up the blue chips by 0.8% or so, while the S&P 500 life high of 2,134.72 from May 20 lies just above. The VIX equity volatility index after gapping from lows of 11.82 this week to session highs of 14.63 Tuesday, has since retreated to session lows of 13.10 again.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields tempered
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13:15 EDTTreasury's 5-year auction was so-so
Treasury's 5-year auction was so-so. The note stopped through at 1.560% versus 1.565% at the bid deadline (and is much cheaper than April's 1.380%). That was one of the better attributes of the offering. There were $86.0 B in bids for a 2.46 cover, below both 2.56 last month and the 2.60 average. Indirect bidders accepted 58.5% compared to the 61.2% previously and the 55.5% average. Direct bidders took 10.0%, about double the 5.6% from April, while primary dealers accepted 31.6% versus 33.2%.
13:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude based at May lows of $57.41
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12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview:
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 123.87
FX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 123.87, after briefly pulling back from the July, 2007 high of 123.66, seen ahead of the N.Y. open. The June, 2007 high of 124.14 remains the next target, though will have to get through reported offers into the 124 mark first. One needs to go back nearly 13 years, to June, 2002 to find a higher USD-JPY level, a year that printed a 134.80 pinnacle. Despite recent Japan policymaker talk of no more stimulus, the ultra loose monetary policies of Abenomics are still likely to be in force when the Fed eventually does reach rate hike lift-off, perhaps as early as September, and as a result, USD-JPY may well make 13 year highs sooner than later.
12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade on volatility
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11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were lackluster
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11:20 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
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11:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning has been the rule in otherwise fairly quiet trade, according to sources. Among them was a bullish purchase of 5k in July 131 calls, a bearish purchase of 2k in July 126.5/125/123.5 put butterflies and a bearish sale of 2k in July 127.5/129 call 1x2s. There was also a combined bid for 1k in September 123.5 puts vs a sale of 1.25k in September 121.5 puts and sale of 1k in September 121 puts. Meanwhile, Sep 10s are now 8.5-ticks lower near 127-005 compared to 127-05 to 127-07 at the time of these deals, following the rash of optimism on a Greek draft deal with its creditors.
11:00 EDTCLSA energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:45 EDTU.S. equities extended opening gains
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rattled around between 1.2424 and 1.2470
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury yields jumped, tracking the updraft in Bunds
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10:12 EDTBarclays life science analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call positioning
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09:45 EDTFed Chair Yellen won't attend the KC Fed's Jackson Hole conference
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09:40 EDTTreasury Action: dealer positioning is making it difficult for Treasuries
Treasury Action: dealer positioning is making it difficult for Treasuries to sustain gains. The JPMorgan Treasury "all client" survey shows the fewest net shorts since April 6, as shorts fall to 24 in the week ended May 26, from 28 for the May 18 week, and 33 as of May 11. Similarly, longs are at 11 for the current week, versus 9 for the May 18 and 11 weeks. Neutrals rose to 65 from 63 previously, and 58 for May 11. The "active client" survey shows longs steady at 17 for the current week, the same as for the May 18 and May 11 weeks, with shorts at 17, unchanged from May 18, but down from 33 for May 11. That leaves net longs flat at 0, but versus -16 for the May 11 week (where the 10-year yield dropped 14 bps from 2.28% to 2.14%).
09:38 EDTMarket has opening bounce following yesterday’s selloff
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09:35 EDTMcDonald's plans to discontinue reporting monthly same store sales
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09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posts better than one-month highs
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09:11 EDTDeutsche Bank credit strategy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Credit Strategy Analysts discuss the liquidity of the U.S. Credit Market on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 28 at 10:30 am.
09:03 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a field trip
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08:40 EDTU.S. equities are in shallow positive territory
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08:35 EDTCFTC to hold a closed commission meeting
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to $58.91
Energy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to $58.91 highs in London, before falling back to current $58.01 levels into the N.Y. open. The dollar's turn higher has weighed on oil prices once again, and further gains there could bring the $56 level into focus. Sources expect a EUR-USD break of 1.0860 could be enough to bring a fresh round of oil selling to bear. RBOB gasoline futures are at the bottom of their two-week range, trading under $1.98/gallon, as natural gas futures recovered from Tuesday's $2.79/M BTU lows, currently trading at $2.82.
08:05 EDTBill Gross of Janus said his bet against Bunds
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08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales dipped 0.4% in the week ended May 23
U.S. chain store sales dipped 0.4% in the week ended May 23, according to The Retail Economist, after sliding 1.2% the week before. It's a 4th straight weekly decline. However, comps are still relatively easy and the y/y pace accelerated to 3.0% from 2.3% previously. Poor weather hurt sales on the week, though furniture store and home improvement sales were a bright spot.
08:00 EDTBill Gross of Janus said his bet against Bunds
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07:51 EDTJPMorgan life sciences analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar is back near recent highs versus the euro, after slipping some in London trade, as no Greek solution appears to be in the cards anytime soon. EUR-USD traded up toward 1.0930 before falling back into 1.0870. USD-JPY meanwhile, moved to new eight-year highs near 123.70, despite BoJ comments that more stimulus was not needed. The U.S. calendar is empty, and focus will remain on Greece headlines, equities, and yields. Equity futures indicate a modestly higher Wall Street open, while yields are steady.
07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.6%
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little weaker
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07:18 EDTFutures point to higher open following yesterday’s selloff
U.S. stock futures are trading above fair value as the market tries to recover from yesterday, which marked stocks' biggest selloff during the month of May. Yesterday’s culprits included the strength of the U.S. dollar, disappointing economic data and headlines surrounding Greece and its inability to come to a deal with Euro leaders. With the Greek drama continuing to unfold abroad, there is little scheduled for release on the domestic economic calendar to distract investors from Europe's headlines.
06:20 EDTU.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew warned of Greek contagion
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 27
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06:01 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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02:45 EDTFX Update: The dollar's rally has come to a pause today
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May 26, 2015
21:35 EDTRichmond Fed hawk Lacker likes June
Richmond Fed hawk Lacker likes June as a "good time to begin considering raising rates," suggesting that weak Q1 data is transitory and inflation is firming again after oil rebounds from its slide. Voter Lacker was speaking from an LSU Graduate School of Banking event after the close and his more strict views on policy timing are a known quantity. Yields have rebounded from lows nevertheless, with the T-note above 2.15% compared to 2.13% lows on late NY.
20:53 EDTJMP Securities to hold a field trip
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20:42 EDTBMO Capital to hold a conference
2015 Global Energy Invitational consists of informative and topical discussions, 1:1s, golf and other activities and is being held in Pinehurst, NC on May 27-29.
17:02 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:02 EDTWeek of 6/6 Redbook to be released at 08:55
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The latest wrinkle in creditor diplomacy over Greece on Tuesday trumped mostly firmer U.S. data to leave stocks and yields sharply lower than they began the session. Reports swirled that creditor talks had broken off again following combative statements by the Greek finance minister following a shift to the left in local elections. That knocked European stocks off their pedestal, led by a 1.6% drop in the German DAX, which spilled over to Wall Street. That followed a generally constructive array of housing, confidence and PMI data, though durables came up short. Cavitations in the energy and commodities markets compounded the move to safety.
14:25 EDTFed Board minutes showed little change in thinking through April
Fed Board minutes showed little change in thinking through April, with most Districts still voting for no change in the 0.75% primary credit (Discount) rate at the March 30 meeting, as well as the April 13, and April 27 meetings. However, Minneapolis continued to argue for an easing to 0.50%, while KC, Philadelphia Cleveland, and Dallas all voted to hike the rate 25 bps to 1.0%. The minutes showed the directors generally echoed the sentiment that Q1 economic weakness was transitory and a function of harsh winter weather.
14:22 EDTRichmond Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on financial stabilityf
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14:01 EDTMarket near session lows in afternoon trading
Each of the major equity indices is off by over 1% and near session lows in afternoon trading. Declining stocks are well ahead of advancing stocks by about 4:1 while down volume is ahead of up volume by almost 5:1. Oil prices are down about 3% and gold is down 1.5%.
13:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: some profit taking
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied above lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury 2-year auction was pretty well subscribed, as expected
Treasury 2-year auction was pretty well subscribed, as expected. The note tailed fractionally at 0.648% versus 0.645% at the bid deadline, though not too bad considering some big price swings today. That stop compares to last month's 0.540% and is the second highest since April 2011 (bested only by the 0.703% from December). Bids totaled $88.3 B for a 3.40 cover, better than the sub-par 3.30 for April but in line with the 3.43 average. Indirect bidders took 42.3%, above both the prior 38.1% and the 36.4% average. Direct bidders accepted 17.2% versus 14.6%, while primary dealers took 40.5% compared to 47.3% previously.
13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has pulled back from its 123.32 high
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12:50 EDTFed VC Fischer said "analysts should expect spillovers"
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12:45 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: the auction should be well received
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12:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast was revised up to 0.8%
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12:10 EDTU.S. equities are attempting a deceased feline bounce
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was very well received
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11:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:30 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook: the $26 B sale kicks off a heavy calendar
Treasury 2-year auction outlook: the $26 B sale kicks off a heavy calendar this week with $90 B in coupon sales, a $13 B 2-year FRN, and some $120 B in bills. Though the big plate of offerings could be difficult to digest, today's 2-year shouldn't be problematic. Recent auctions of this maturity have come on the screws, or though, and the back up in rates this month should prove attractive to traders and overseas players. The wi had climbed to 0.67% today, which would be the highest stop this year, and the second highest going back to April 2011. But it's dipped back to unchanged at 0.65% as equities plunge on Greece worries. The note is relatively cheap against the 10-year amid curve flattening trades over the past two weeks thanks to Fed tightening fears. However, the recent concessions should be sufficient to compensate for the moderate and shallow rate hike trajectory that's projected. Indirect bidding should remain strong given wide spreads to foreign sovereigns, and as Greek default risks mount. The April 2-year sale stopped at 0.540% and garnered a 3.30 cover (3.43 average) and a 38.1% indirect bid (36.4% average).
11:25 EDTTreasury Curve Action: long yields paced the move lower
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $45 B 4-week bill auction for Wednesday
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11:07 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $45.0 B
11:05 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index worsened to -20.8 in May
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10:40 EDTThe 6.8% U.S. new home sales bounce
The 6.8% U.S. new home sales bounce to a 517k rate reversed the April drop to an upwardly-revised 484k (was 481k) clip, as sales work to retake the weather-defying 538k (was 543k) cycle-high in February. New home sales are gyrating around the moderate growth trend evident for all of the major housing market indicators, though analysts saw little in the way of identifiable weather distortions for this gauge, alongside a somewhat larger seasonal gyration for existing home sales and a much larger weather-hit for housing starts and permits. Sales seem on track for moderate growth during the important spring season, following a last year's disappointing spring performance. New home sales have risen 91% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, while pending home sales have risen 42% from a low in June of 2010, and existing home sales have risen 46% from a low in July of 2010. Analysts have larger cyclical climbs of 137% for housing starts, 123% for permits, and 109% for new home construction.
10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bullish positioning has crept into the mix as stocks have slipped on the Greek banana skin once again and underlying rate futures jump. Sources reported a purchase of 7.9k in September 130 calls on 10-year futures, which are trading some 6-ticks higher near 127-15 compared to their 127-23 to 127-105 range on Globex.
10:25 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rebounded to 1 in May
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10:25 EDTThe U.S. consumer confidence May rise to 95.4
The U.S. consumer confidence May rise to 95.4 from a downwardly-revised 94.3 (was 95.2) defied May drops in other confidence surveys, as the index fluctuates below the 103.8 cycle-high in January but above the 93.1 December level. The up-trend into early-2015 closed the gap to the growth paths for consumption and payrolls. Consumer confidence is benefiting from rising home and equity prices and the abatement of harsh weather, though it continues to face headwinds from the petro-sector recession and a bounce in gasoline prices after a steep winter drop, alongside ongoing concerns about limited credit availability and an ugly geopolitical backdrop. For other surveys, the Michigan sentiment fell to 88.6 in May from 95.9 in April, versus a 98.1 cycle-high in January. The IBD/TIPP index fell to 49.7 from 51.3 in April, versus an earlier 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has slipped to a 43.2 average in the first three weeks of May from a cycle-high 45.7 average in April, versus a 45.5 prior cycle-high average in January.
10:20 EDTFX Action:
FX Action: The dollar was net higher after the mix of data, where new home sales and consumer confidence both beat expectations, as the Richmond Fed index moved higher. EUR-USD touched 1.0899, though continues to find buyers under the figure, as USD-JPY posted new multi-year highs of 123.30. Wall Street continues to slide however, following Europe's lead, as Greek issues remain a major drag. Yields are little changed, however.
10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence improved to 95.4 in May
U.S. consumer confidence improved to 95.4 in May from 94.3 in April (revised from 95.2). The strength was in the present situation component which climbed to 108.1 from 105.1 (revised from 106.8). The expectations index slipped to 86.9 from 87.1 (revised from 87.5). The labor market differential rose to -6.6 from -6.9 (revised from -7.3). The 12-month inflation index accelerated to 5.1 from 4.9% (revised from 4.8%). But it was 5.6% a year ago.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields eased slightly
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales rebounded 6.8% to a 517k pace in April
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10:00 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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10:00 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: Confidence data for May is expected to fall to 93.0 (median 94.5) from 95.2 in April. Other confidence indicators have declined in May as well with Michigan Sentiment dropping to 88.6 from 95.9 and the IBD/TIPP poll easing to 49.7 from 51.3.
09:35 EDTDeutsche Bank economists hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:35 EDTMarket opens lower as investors return from holiday
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09:35 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI preview:
U.S. Markit flash services PMI preview: flash services PMI is forecast to slip 0.7% to 57.0 in May from 57.4 final April reading. For more, see the Markit website.
09:30 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Lull Extends into May:
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09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 221.0 in March
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded to 1.2416 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD has traded to 1.2416 highs, levels last seen on April 15. The move comes as the greenback overall outperforms this morning, and as WTI oil prices slide 2% to lows of $58.34. The 100-day moving average at 1.2362 provides initial support from here, while resistance is targeted at 1.2500.
09:15 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home prices index rose 0.92% to 175.20 in March
U.S. Case Shiller home prices index rose 0.92% to 175.20 in March for the 20-City measure (nsa), from a revised 0.47% gain to 173.60 (was 173.67). Though the index has been choppy on a monthly basis, home prices are up 5.04% y/y, from 4.99% in February, for a 34th straight annual gain. The 10-City index increased 0.80% on the month to 190.04 from a revised 188.53 (revised from 188.62), and was up 4.75% y/y versus February's 4.76% y/y gain. The 10.33% y/y increase for San Francisco paced the 20-cities surveyed.
09:04 EDTBofA/Merrill teleom equipment analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Telecom Equipment Analyst Tal Liani discusses the firm's recent report entitled, "Networking Primer on Software-Defined Infrastructure" on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 27 at 1 pm.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
U.S. equities are back on the defensive following the long weekend after the latest wobble in Europe over Greece and its implications for the periphery stalled European stocks and knocked Spain's IBEX, though the Euro Stoxx 50 is flat and the German DAX is off 0.5%. This followed a small 0.12% gain on Japan's Nikkei and another 2.0% jump in the Shanghai Comp. Following the as-expected headline drop in U.S. durable goods orders, the Dow is 32-points lower, S&P sank 5-points and NASDAQ is off 12-points in pre-open action. In M&A, Charter reached a deal to by Time Warner Cable for $55 B, boosting TWC shares nearly 9%. L Brands also gained 3% after being added to Goldman's "conviction-buy" list. There's plenty left on tap in terms of home prices and sales, PMI and consumer confidence to digest.
08:55 EDTU.S. home prices data preview:
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08:55 EDTToday's durables figures
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08:52 EDTBofA/Merrill G10 FX Strategist Vamvakidis has analyst/industry conference call
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up a bit
Treasury Action: yields backed up a bit following the roughly as-expected durables drop, though mitigated by the upward March revision and +0.5% ex-transportation reading. The T-note yield clear 2.20% from the 2.19% area and compared to earlier 2.17% lows. Of course, that's well off 2.24% post-CPI highs from Friday. The 2s-10s spread is near +157 bp, though short-dated supply should help cap that spread.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied to intra day highs
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08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders dipped 0.5% in April
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08:38 EDTFutures trade near fair value following durable goods report
Stock futures traded near fair value following the release of the durable goods orders report for April, which showed durable goods orders fell 0.5% overall, as expected. If transportation items are removed, the data showed an increase of 0.5%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. The next economic report is due out at 9:00 am EDT, with the release of the FHFA house price index.
08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at session lows
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at session lows of $59.01. Prices peaked at $60.21 in the U.S. absence on Monday, though with the dollar stronger, oil bulls have been thwarted so far on Tuesday. Firmed up demand in the U.S., Japan and China in particular, have limited downside, though with supply still outstripping demand, the $60 level may provide a cap near term. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures remain firm near $2.05/gallon, while natural gas futures are down 5 cents/M BTU under $2.82 on moderate U.S. temperatures.
08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:15 EDTFedspeak from Richmond Fed hawk Lacker
Fedspeak from Richmond Fed hawk Lacker is due after the close on the topic of "From Country Banks to SIFIs: The 100-year Quest for Financial Stability" before an LSU Graduate School of Banking event from 10:10 ET.
08:05 EDTFed is facing an economy plagued by mismeasurement
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08:01 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: core sovereign bonds are higher globally
Treasury Market Outlook: core sovereign bonds are higher globally amid increased Greek default concerns, rising anti austerity sentiment in Europe, and increased contagion risks amid success of the Syriza ally, the "Podemos" party, in Spain. Treasuries are also correcting somewhat from Friday's losses. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen over 2 bps to 2.19%. U.K. Gilts are pacing the rally, however, with the yield off over 5 bps to 1.877%. Trading volume was on the strong side as the U.S. and U.K. markets reopen from yesterday's holidays. The Greek yield is up nearly 60 bps to 11.60%. Today's calendar is heavy and includes April durable goods orders, new home sales, May consumer confidence, along with the May Markit flash services PMI, as well as the Case-Shiller home price index, FHFA home prices and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Also today, the Treasury auctions $26 B in 2-year notes, kicking off $90 B in coupon auctions. The Fed's Lacker speaks on financial stability.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:20 EDTAmerican Gas Association to hold monthly roundtable luncheon meeting
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07:16 EDTUBS to hold a conference
APAC Financials Conference 2015 is being held in Hong Kong on May 26-27.
07:10 EDTFutures little changed following holiday weekend
Stock future are mixed, with Dow futures slightly above fair value and S&P and Nasdaq futures slightly below fair value, as investors make their way back from the Memorial Day weekend. They will return to economic data that includes reports on durable goods, housing, consumer confidence, and manufacturing. The parade begins at 8:30 am EDT, with the release of the durable goods orders report and concludes at 10:00 am EDT with data on new home sales, consumer confidence, and manufacturing.
06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to rally
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05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 26
Globex S&P futures are recently down 8.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.12%, DAX down 0.68%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $59.36, natural gas down 0.30%, gold at $1195 an ounce, copper down 0.43%.
05:53 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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May 25, 2015
19:02 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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19:02 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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19:02 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:35 EDTAsian stock markets will try to sustain momentum
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14:05 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: April new homes data is out Tuesday and the headline is seen rising 2.9% to a 495k (median 503k) unit pace from 481k in March. Housing starts for the month were already released and revealed big gains with the headline rising to 1,135k in April from 944k in March.
14:00 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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14:00 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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03:05 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD fell to a new low
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May 22, 2015
19:00 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [0.1]% for the quarter
18:59 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
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18:59 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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18:59 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
May Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index will be reported at 10:30 . Current consensus is [10.0]
18:59 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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18:59 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 1
18:59 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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18:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
April Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
18:59 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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18:59 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
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14:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:55 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening trades should be de rigueur near term
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to highs on Yellen
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13:07 EDTFed Chair sees pace of normalization likely to be gradual
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13:05 EDTYellen sees growth in employment, output to moderate over rest of year
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13:05 EDTU.S. BEA is considering alterations to its GDP calculus
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13:02 EDTYellen: Fed needs to be 'reasonably confident' on inflation before raising rates
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY dipped to a two-day low
FX Action: USD-JPY dipped to a two-day low at 120.71 during Tokyo trade, as the BoJ left policy unchanged, as was widely expected, noting in its statement that the economy "continues to recover moderately". After opening the N.Y. session just under 121.00, USD-JPY posted better than two-month highs of 121.56, spiking up in the aftermath of the hotter U.S. CPI data. The pairing remains capped ahead of a series of March highs between 121.50 and 121.67, which has kept the pairing away from multi-year highs of 122.23 made on March 10, though a strong close this afternoon could see Asian markets test the highs on Monday.
11:25 EDTFedspeak resumes over the weekend
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10:30 EDTTreasury Action: next week's big supply calendar could keep bonds heavy
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10:25 EDTFinancials are all among the top gainers in the Dow
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10:21 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policy on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 22 at 11 am.
09:55 EDTU.S. equities found some equilibrium
U.S. equities found some equilibrium in the wake of choppy conditions following the uptick in core CPI that initially sent stocks lower ahead of the open. This was accompanied by bond yields simmering back down after the knee-jerk reaction higher, which provided some cover for the shallow rebound in stocks after the open. This has been paced by the tech sector, with NASDAQ higher as the blue chips lag, while Europe has cut earlier losses as well, as the Euro Stoxx 50 moves back to flat as the euro loses ground. NYMEX crude back below $60 bbl and commodity prices have also slipped, keeping some pressure on the energy sector as the dollar rallies.
09:52 EDTWallachBeth biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:40 EDTMarket opens quietly in what may be low-key session
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures plunged
Euro$ interest rate futures plunged following the 0.3% rise in core CPI, after biding their time ahead of Yellen's speech on the economic outlook, which is still widely expected to emphasize "transitory" weakness. Fed moderate Williams endorsed the 2% inflation mandate in a speech overnight, while core CPI steadied at 1.8% y/y - still below that target. The December 2015 contract sank 3-ticks to near 99.405, while the deferreds turned up to 2.5-tick gains in to losses of as much as 5.5-ticks out the back end. All else equal, look for some bottom-fishing ahead of the early close.
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are outperforming nominals after the hotter CPI data
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: firming in April CPI supports a September rate hike
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to levitate
Treasury Action: yields continued to levitate higher in the wake of the uptick in core CPI, through the 2.21% 50% retracement area of Thursday's 2.256-2.163% range, which puts the top end of that range in sight. This has been reinforced by the sharp reaction in the dollar moving higher, though equity losses have been fairly muted in pre-open trade. A break of the 2.25-2.26% area will be required to crack May's wedge or flag-shaped pattern and put 2.303% May 19 highs or 2.366% May 12 highs in reach. 2.20-2.16% reverts to yield support, should the bond market rethink the risks on Yellen's 13 ET speech. The 2s-10s spread has consolidated around +160 bp, with the deepest losses in the belly and the bond outperforming relatively.
09:05 EDTThe 0.1% April U.S. CPI rise
The 0.1% April U.S. CPI rise with a surprisingly firm 0.3% core price gain rounded from respective increases of 0.103% and 0.256%, with price strength attributable to a 0.9% price pop for medical care services and a 0.3% rise for owners' equivalent rent. Analysts now expect 0.1% PCE chain price figure with a 0.2% core price gain, and a 0.2% April nominal PCE rise with a 0.1% "real" gain. Our 2.5% Q2 GDP growth forecast assumes nominal consumption growth of 4.3% with a lean 1.7% "real" rise and a 2.6% chain price increase, after expected upward Q1 revisions that leave a 0.1% (was -0.1%) nominal Q1 growth rate with a 2.1% (was 1.9%) real rise and a 2.0% chain price contraction. The CPI figures defied the underperformance for other April inflation measures. Analysts saw a 0.4% April PPI drop with a 0.2% core price decline, and the 0.6% April PPI drop on the old SOP basis. The April trade price report revealed surprising April weakness after a two-month pause in the trade price downtrend.
09:00 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 12:30
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09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 12:00
09:00 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 14:15
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09:00 EDT Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 09:05
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09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 12:30
09:00 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 11:30
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09:00 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 09:10
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08:53 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD jumped to 1.2269 highs
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI edged up 0.1% with the core up 0.3% in April
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields spiked higher
Treasury Action: yields spiked higher following the hotter than expected core CPI reading, though measured y/y it was a still tame +1.8%. The T-note shot back over 2.20% in a snap from 2.17% in advance of the data, likely as much a function of shallow liquidity as any heartfelt inflation concern. With Yellen's speech looming after the early bond market close, yields are unlikely to get too far as she is likely to remain cautious on the "transitory" economic slowdown, in line with the last statement and FOMC minutes.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied broadly
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08:33 EDTModest reaction to consumer prices report
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude eased into $60.04 lows
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08:15 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are mostly firmer
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07:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the rise
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar pulled back some in London dealings, though has since rebounded, taking EUR-USD toward 1.1170 from 1.1208 highs. The earlier rally came on the back of better German Ifo data. USD-JPY is up flirting with 121 again, after falling back in Asia on a fairly benign BoJ meeting. USD-CAD has formed up over 1.2215, holding support at 1.2170. Canadian data will include retail sales and CPI, generally good for some CAD volatility. In the U.S., the sole release comes at 8:30 EDT in the form of April CPI.
07:11 EDTFederal Reserve Board Chair Yellen to speak at luncheon meeting
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07:09 EDTFutures quiet ahead of holiday weekend
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07:00 EDTFX Update:
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 22
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05:53 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 120.70-80
FX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 120.70-80 after extending bellow's Tokyo low to a new two-day nadir at 120.63. The BoJ left policy unchanged following its two-day meeting, as was widely expected, noting in its statement that the economy "continues to recover moderately," similar to the prevailing policymaker message. Kuroda also repeated prevailing boilerplate remarks during his press conference. The decline back below 121.00 after the run higher earlier in the week to a two-month high of 121.47 reaffirms the broadly side-ways, if at times choppy, trend that's been persisting since early December. Analysts continue to anticipate an eventual breakout to the topside as the U.S. economy recovers traction following its Q1 and early-Q2 soft patch, while the ultra loose monetary policies of Abecomics are likely to be remaining in force in Japan when the Fed eventually reaches tightening lift-off. Resistance is at 121.47-50, support at 120.50.
04:10 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda said that a "positive cycle is kicking in"
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled in the low-to-mid 1.11s
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02:03 EDTMay Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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02:03 EDTWeek of 5/25 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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02:03 EDTWeek of 6/3 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
00:25 EDTBoJ left policy unchanged, as widely expected
BoJ left policy unchanged, as widely expected, continuing to increase the monetary base at an annual rate of JPY 80 tln. The vote was 8-1. As indicated in the statement, the Bank will maintain QQE until inflation stabilizes at the 2% target. It's seen holding around 0% for the near term. Meanwhile, the recovery is still expected to be moderate for now, even after Q1 GDP surprised on the high side with a 2.4% gain. The stimulus is having its desired effect, according to officials, but risks will be monitored and policy will be adjusted as is appropriate. Many in the market suspect the economy will lose momentum in 2H and force the BoJ to increase stimulus measures later this year or in early 2016. The Nikkei is slightly higher on the day, while USD-JPY has dipped to 120.75, from a high of 121.04 earlier.
May 21, 2015
16:37 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
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16:37 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:11 EDTWeek of 5/29 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:11 EDTWeek of 5/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:35 EDTFed proposed allowing banks to use muni bonds
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14:10 EDTFed VC Fischer argued that the European crisis
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14:05 EDTTreasury Action: short covering into the long holiday weekend
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13:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has consolidated recent gains
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13:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed fresh lows
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13:29 EDTWeek of 5/30 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening was lackluster
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13:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are lightly bid
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12:50 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS auction preview
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12:35 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar has lightened considerably
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12:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: a flurry of 5-year block positioning
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11:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: board volatility came off
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11:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:25 EDTTreasury detailed $176 B in auctions for next week as supply picks up
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11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD remains firm
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11:14 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:14 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:14 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828XE5
11:14 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:14 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:14 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at -13 vs consensus of -2
10:45 EDTThe 3.3% U.S. existing home sales drop
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending May 15
Gas inventories 92 Bcf build vs. consensus of 96 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTU.S. leading indicators jumped 0.7% to 122.3 in April
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10:25 EDTThe Philly Fed downtick to 6.7 from 7.5
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10:20 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index slid 0.8 points to 6.7 in May
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index slid 0.8 points to 6.7 in May after rebounding 2.5 points to 7.5 in April. This is the 5th monthly decline out of six (the April increase had broken a string of 4 straight monthly drops since the index surged 21.2 points to 40.2 in November, which was the highest since December 1993). The components were mixed. The employment index fell back to 6.7 after jumping to 11.5 in April. The workweek sunk to -5.6 from 3.4. New orders rose to 4.0 from 0.7 previously. Prices paid double down and dropped to -14.2 from -7.5. Prices received slid to -5.4 from -4.1. The 6-month index dipped to 33.9 from 35.5, though employment improved to 21.5 from 20.6, and cap-ex rose to 16.8 from 15.8. The report is disappointing, however, and will support Treasury market gains.
10:15 EDTU.S. April existing home sales unexpectedly fell 3.3% to 5.04 M
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged lower
FX Action: The dollar edged lower after the mix of data, where leading indicators beat expectations, as existing home sales and the Philly Fed index were light. EUR-USD fell into the 121.00 level from near 121.15, as EIR-USD moved up over 1.1140 from under 1.1115. Wall Street remains marginally higher, as yields pulled back a touch.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields spilled lower
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10:05 EDTU.S. flash Markit PMI dipped 53.8 in May
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09:59 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
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09:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped slightly
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09:50 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. leading economic indicators preview:
U.S. leading economic indicators preview: the April index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to grow 0.5% (median 0.3%) vs 0.2% in March. Analysts expect the big improvement in housing permits to help lift the headline. preview for more.
09:35 EDTMarket has another quiet open
Stock futures improved slightly following the release of the weekly jobless claims which has now put together the best four month weekly averages since November 2000. The futures action led to another quiet open for the broader market which remains near record levels. Investors will now be watching the existing home sales report, the weekly natural gas storage change data and the leading economic indicators.
09:25 EDTFedspeak resumes with Vice Chair Fischer
Fedspeak resumes with Vice Chair Fischer who will be discussing "Past, Present and Future Challenges for the Euro Area" before an ECB central banking forum at 14 ET from Portugal. Without any Q&A scheduled, this should remain on topic and not stray into U.S. policy per se. After the close SF Fed moderate Williams takes part in a "Policy Panel on the Impact of Reform in Practice" from 19 ET. Of course, this will be trumped by Yellen's speech on the economic outlook tomorrow from 13 ET, as markets wind down for the long Memorial Day weekend.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are still mildly lower
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09:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $59.50
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08:49 EDTFutures remain lower following early economic reports
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields crept lower
Treasury Action: yields crept lower following the higher than expected reading on jobless claims, though this is relative to their consistent declines over the past several months. The T-note yield probed below 2.23%, but found support ahead of 2.21% session lows after topping out near 2.25% overnight. The 2s-10s spread is holding near +165 bp. There's plenty of data left on tap to rock the boat later.
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago National Activity index improved to -0.15 April
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08:45 EDTThe 10k U.S. initial claims bounce to 274k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped briefly
FX Action: The dollar dipped briefly, then recovered after the slightly higher than consensus claims outcome, and marginal improvement in the Chicago Fed index. EUR-USD touched 1.1147 highs, before slipping to N.Y. session lows of 1.1121, as USD-JPY dipped to 121.02, before jumping to just shy of 121.20. Yields edged lower, as equity futures remained in shallow negative territory.
08:35 EDTIs the Fed's 2% inflation target too low?
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed in quiet trading
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed in quiet trading with the long end posting small gains and outperforming on the curve and against core sovereigns overseas. The 10-year note rate is slightly lower at 2.23%. Bunds are modestly weaker with the yield up 2 bps to 0.65%, while the U.K. Gilt has risen to 1.99%. Data reports overnight were mixed. China's HSBC/Markit flash PMI firmed to 49.1, but was in contractionary territory for a third straight month. U.K. retail sales were much stronger than expected, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI surprised higher, while the services index fell back. There's a lot of U.S. data today, including April existing home sales, the May Philly Fed survey, the May Markit flash manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims (the week coincides with the BLS survey week), and April leading indicators.
07:25 EDTFutures suggesting lower open for market
U.S. equity futures are suggesting a moderately lower open following disappointing manufacturing data out of China. The report showed manufacturing shrunk for the third consecutive month as demand remained soft. U.S. investors will get a number of economic data points, including weekly jobless claims data, Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report and the leading economic indicators.
07:17 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:17 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
China Healthcare C-Level Conference is being held in Hong Kong on May 21.
06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD is higher today
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 21
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05:57 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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04:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is testing 121.00
FX Action: USD-JPY is testing 121.00 in London trader after earlier meeting Japanese exporter offers and other selling after opening in Tokyo, when spot was near yesterday's two-month high at 121.47. Slightly firmer than expected Japanese manufacturing PMI data, and slightly softer than expected China PMI, had little impact today. An article in the Nikkei newspaper today also suggests that the BoJ will revise its outlook up during its policy meeting, which concludes tomorrow. The dip in USD-JPY has seen the early-March high at 122.03 dip back under the horizon. That level is the highest point the pair has seen during the broadly side-ways trend that's been persisting since early December. Analysts have been anticipating an eventual breakout to the topside as the U.S. economy recovers traction following its Q1- early-Q2 soft patch, while the ultra loose monetary policies of Abecomics are likely to be remaining in force in Japan when the Fed eventually reaches tightening lift-off. Resistance is at 121.47-50, support at 121.00 and 120.50.
02:35 EDTFX Update: The FOMC minutes took wind out of the dollar's sails
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May 20, 2015
23:20 EDTChina HSBC flash PMI rose to 49.1 in May
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21:39 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
16:15 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The May Philly Fed is out Thursday and the headline should improve to 8.0 (median 8.0) from 7.5 in April. The already released Empire State report revealed a headline increase to 3.1 from -1.2 in April and the report's ISM-adjusted measure improved as well, rising to 51.7 from 51.0 in April. Broadly speaking, analysts expect producer sentiment in May to maintain the ISM-adjusted average of 51 that analysts saw in April after two months at 50 in February and March.
16:00 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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15:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:09 EDTWeek of 5/29 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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14:45 EDTMore from the FOMC minutes
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar dipped initially
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields flip-flopped
Treasury Action: yields flip-flopped after the FOMC minutes, first zigging lower to dip below 2.24% on the 10-year before zagging back over 2.27% for a little volatility after the minutes relative to the quagmire in advance. The Fed is still leaning toward a temporary slowdown, but there were a lot of caveats that remain to be dispelled. The majority did reject a June hike, however, which was a known risk in advance. Stocks remain baffled, while the dollar has rebounded.
14:14 EDTStocks off lows, still mixed following release of Fed minutes
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14:10 EDTFOMC minutes indicated officials thought a June hike was unlikely
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14:04 EDTMost Fed members expect moderate economic expansion after Q1
The Federal Reserve stated in the latest minutes, "Most participants expected that, following the slowdown in the first quarter, real economic activity would resume expansion at a moderate pace, and that labor market conditions would improve further. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports."
14:02 EDTFed minutes show many FOMC members saw June rate hike as 'unlikely'
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13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning has prevailed over the course of the session. Among them were some 10k in bullish purchases of calls, call spreads and butterflies, with strikes mostly in the 127-128 zone. On the bearish side were buyers of 1.5k in July 125 puts, 2k in June 127/126.5 put 1x2s and sales of 5k in June/Sep 125.5/124.5 put spreads in a calendar roll. June 10s are still up marginally ahead of the Fed minutes in dull trade, rising 5-ticks to 127-06, compared to their 127-10 to 126-275 session range.
13:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options/futures: heavy positioning
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13:00 EDTFed funds futures are anticipating a 25 bp rate hike by the end of the year
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12:35 EDTFed Policy Outlook: comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday
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12:21 EDTWeek of 5/29 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: some curve steepening
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12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has powered its way to fresh highs
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10:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied/fell
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10:45 EDTTech/housing bubble talk has been fueled
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10:35 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are outperforming core European sovereigns
Treasury Action: Treasuries are outperforming core European sovereigns, reversing the trend from Monday and Tuesday. Sources say profit taking on the spread, which hit an intraday wide of 170 bps Tuesday (and was the widest since May 1), has supported the T-note this morning, while Greek fears worry Bund investors. The Treasury-Bund pairing has squeezed down to 166 bps from over 169 bps yesterday, after gapping out 7 bps to 158 bps on Monday. Again much of the action is more a function of positioning rather than fundamentals. The advent of the Memorial Day holiday weekend in the U.S. and month-end are also reportedly impacting. Note that Barclays' estimates the June 1 extension at 0.13 years, large but about average for a refunding month.
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of May 15
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10:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar remains on the heavy side
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09:54 EDTAverages open quietly, slightly lower in early trading
Stock futures firmed during the pre-market trading session and traded near fair value. The futures action led to a quiet open for the broader market, which is now down slightly in early trading. Investors will be waiting on the energy inventory levels for clues on the potential direction of oil prices as well as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting for indications of any monetary policy shift. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 16 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:42 EDTFinancial Services Roundtable to hold a webcast
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09:40 EDTFOMC minutes to April meeting could be a source of further volatility
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish call demand
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded off its best levels
FX Action: USD-CAD has traded off its best levels of 1.2256 posted in London, and is currently trading near 1.2200 as oil prices stabilize near $58.50. The next potential mover for the pairing will be the 10:30 EDT release of weekly EIA petroleum inventory data, which generally, if only briefly, riles up the oil market. API data reported a larger than expected stock draw on Tuesday, and the oil market will look to EIA for confirmation this morning. Some corporate backed USD-CAD bids are noted from 1.2200, though after that, support doesn't really enter the picture until 1.2130, Tuesday's lows.
08:45 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans saw no rate hike before early 2016
Chicago Fed dove Evans saw no rate hike before early 2016 as being appropriate in a speech overnight from Munich, reiterating his warning that the Fed shouldn't hike until there's greater confidence that inflation will be it its 2% target 1-2 years out. Meanwhile, "inflation is too low, and I expect it will be so for some time," he said. It would take substantially stronger wage growth to convince him otherwise, which he does not anticipate. Also if core inflation moves substantially above 1.5% or the sustainable unemployment rate was at 5%. Though unabashedly dovish, this was in line with his past statements.
08:30 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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08:30 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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08:10 EDT5 things to watch in the FOMC minutes
5 things to watch in the FOMC minutes have been detailed by WSJ's Da Costa (subscription), who sees 1) rate increase timing, 2) recalibrating the growth outlook, 3) new doubts on jobs?, 4) inflation stabilizes, and 5) sympathy for 2016 holdouts? as the major themes to look for in the minutes. Recall, the April meeting had focused on the "transitory" nature of the economic slowdown and retired calendar-based guidance.
08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $58.86 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude recovered to $58.86 highs in London trade, after touching $57.91 lows in N.Y. on Tuesday. The modest rally came on the heels of a larger than expected weekly inventory draw, as reported by API after the close on Tuesday. Later, stronger Japan GDP data helped support. The market will now focus on weekly EIA inventory numbers, due at 10:30 EDT. Elsewhere, RBOB gasoline futures recovered to $2.02/gallon, after sliding more than 5 cents, toward $1.99 yesterday, as natural gas futures steadied under $3.00/M BTU, after posting four-month highs on Tuesday.
07:40 EDTSEC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.5%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.5% in data released earlier, along with a 3.7% drop in the purchase index and a 0.3% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended May 15. By mid-May mortgage rates had risen to the highest level since December with the Bund tantrum, which drew a parallel move with Treasuries and pulled mortgage rates higher as well. The average 30-year fixed rate rose another 4 basis points to 4.04%, having cleared the 4.0% barrier the week prior. As the MBA noted, "Mortgage rates increased last week, and Treasury rates increased to a recent high at mid-week before falling at the end of the week. Overall purchase activity fell for the week, along with conventional refinance volume, but government refinance volume increased." This data is a little more sober than the 20% boom in housing starts recorded yesterday, but still illustrates the challenging dynamic the Fed faces between managing rate tightening expectations and reining in the economy. New home sales and existing home sales have been on a more gradual upslope this year too.
07:39 EDTB. Riley to hold a conference
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07:31 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a forum
LatAm Concessions Forum is being held in New York on May 20-21.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields are slightly lower
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07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:08 EDTNational Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships to hold a conference
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06:59 EDTFutures quiet as investors await Fed minutes
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06:04 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 20
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05:58 EDTJune front month equity options last day to trade is June 19, 2015
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has remained heavy
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May 19, 2015
20:30 EDTJapan's GDP accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1
Japan's GDP accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4. Private investment bounced 7.5% after the 2.4% dip in Q4, 23.2% drop in Q3 and 36.7% pull-back in Q2. Private non-residential investment rose 1.4% in Q1, the first increase since Q1 of 2014. Exports grew 9.9% in Q1 while imports expanded 12.0%, leaving a drag from net exports. Inventories added to growth in Q1. Overall, this is a much better than expected report. While the Japanese economy faces considerable challenges, the pick-up in business investment is a positive sign for the growth outlook that will not be lost on the Bank of Japan.
16:15 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:15 EDTWeek of 5/30 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:54 EDTDow, S&P 500 hit new highs in afternoon trading
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13:10 EDTFOMC minutes could be a source of further volatility for the markets
FOMC minutes could be a source of further volatility for the markets, even though no big surprises are anticipated. The bond market has generally been defying weaker fundamentals during the selloff over the last three weeks, until today's housing starts figures. And traders may cherry-pick hawkish comments in the minutes to the April 28, 29 meeting to support the potential for a September rate hike, if not June. There weren't any real surprises in the April policy statement, and the forward guidance was removed in favor of data dependency, as universally expected. Remember that the Fed slightly downgraded its economic outlook, though it attributed some of the Q1 slowing to "transitory" factors. So there are likely to be a number of differing views on these topics from which traders can choose. Indeed, there are a number of factors that policymakers can cite to support rate liftoff, especially in the job market, but there are also a number of elements, specifically wages and prices, not to mention sluggish Q1 growth, that give the FOMC pause.
12:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is down 3%
Energy Action: NYMEX crude is down 3% on the session, trading to lows of $58.34, and near support at $58.11, which has been the lowest since the start of May. Sources expect follow through to the $56.50 region should $58.00 give way.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $45 B 4-week bill auction results were soft
Treasury's $45 B 4-week bill auction results were soft, though in part it's a function of the $5 B increase in size. The bill tailed, however, to 0.015% versus 0.005% at the bid deadline, and is a little cheaper than last week's 0.010% too. Bids totaled $151.7 B for a 3.38 cover, down from the prior 3.95 and the 3.79 average. In fact, it's the smallest since December 16. Indirect bidders took 15.6%, about half of the 31.4% take last week, and is below the 27.7% average.
11:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: another heavy calendar
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10:45 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
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10:33 EDTThe FTC to hold a press conference on major consumer fraud case
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10:20 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is on course for rate liftoff later this year
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10:14 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Industrials Analysts provide a weekly industry outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 19 at 11 am.
10:00 EDTSF Fed writes "shockingly weak" Q1 GDP was likely a statistical anomaly
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10:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has run into sellers from the 120.45 level
FX Action: USD-JPY has run into sellers from the 120.45 level, with offers reportedly in place now from 12050 to 120.80. Pent up yen demand from Japanese exporters is the likely source of the USD-JPY selling interest, though with yields staying firmer, and overall dollar pullback limited, the market may well begin to test the depth of the sellers.
09:55 EDTEconomic Club of New York to hold a luncheon meeting
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09:55 EDTStocks fluctuate around flatline in early trading
Stock futures remained in positive territory throughout the pre-market trading session, showing little reaction to the better than expected housing starts and building permits data. The futures action led to a positive open for the broader market, but the averages have turned mixed in the early going, with the Dow down 20 points, the Nasdaq up 3 points and the S&P down 1 point.
09:52 EDTFinancial Stability Oversight Council holds an open session meeting
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09:35 EDTU.S. starts and permits revealed big April rebounds
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury-Bund note spread gapped out to 168 bps
Treasury Action: Treasury-Bund note spread gapped out to 168 bps as recent data/events highlight the divergent policy paths of the FOMC and the ECB. The 10-year Treasury rate climbed to 2.27% after the data, while the Bund yield is down over 4 bps to 0.59% currently (it was as low as 0.549% in European trading). The spread was as wide as 184 bps just prior to the April 29 FOMC statement amid fears of a hawkish tone (which turned out not to be the case). The stronger than expected housing starts figures gives credence to the Fed's view that much of the Q1 weakness was "transitory," which keeps alive the potential for rate liftoff later this year (June still seems unlikely). Meanwhile, European bond yields dropped sharply overnight on ECB comments that they are prepared to accelerate QE amid summer doldrums. Spread plays should remain volatile near term with a lot of key U.S. data ahead, including the June 5 employment report.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on one-month highs of 1.2239
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09:00 EDTU.S. stocks will try to extend higher
U.S. stocks will try to extend higher after the S&P 500 made a new record high on Monday. The risk rally has gained added traction on China stimulus speculation and ECB willingness to accelerate bond purchases in May and June, so as not to hamper liquidity in July and August. Although bond yields have backed up from session lows, contending with the much stronger than expected U.S. housing data. In corporate news, Wal-Mart has reported Q1 earnings that missed estimates, hurt by the stronger dollar, according to Bloomberg. Urban Outfitters has also disappointed with Q1 earnings. But Home Depot has raised its profit and sales guidance for the year on the back of the housing market recovery. Meanwhile, H-P plans to sell its Chinese unit to Tsinghua Unigroup, according to the WSJ. S&P 500 futures have firmed 3.75 points, Nasdaq futures have increased 15.5 points. And Dow futures have advanced 41 points.
08:59 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury gains were undone by the stronger housing data
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied across the board
FX Action: The dollar rallied across the board after the much better than expected housing starts data. EUR-USD fell to one-week lows of 1.1140 from 1.1190, as USD-JPY ramped up to two-week highs of 120.43, from 120.18. Euro support is now seen at 1.1131, the May 11 low, while USD-JPY resistance is at 120.50, the May 5 high. Equity futures kept their gains, as yields moved higher.
08:46 EDTCowen healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts surged 20.2% to 1,135k in April
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08:33 EDTFutures remain higher following housing data
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08:20 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: starts are expected to rise another 8.0% to a 1,000k pace, after the 2.0% March gain, still correcting from the 15.3% weather-impacted plunge in February. Despite the gains, starts are still below the recent high of 1,098k in July. Permits should improve to a 1,055k pace from a revised 1,042k in March (were 1,039k).
08:05 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded to lows of $59.41
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded to lows of $59.41 in London, after Saudi Arabia reported crude shipments of nearly 8 M bpd, a 10-year high. In addition, slack global demand, particularly in China, should see oil prices head lower still in the coming weeks. RBOB gasoline futures are near one-week low, trading at $2.03/gallon, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.71/gallon, up 5 cents from a week ago, and up 25 cents from a month ago, according to AAA data. Demand going into the U.S. Memorial day holiday weekend has helped gasoline prices higher. Natural gas futures meanwhile, touched four-month highs of $3.06/M BTU, as warmer weather throughout much of the U.S. ramps up electricity demand.
07:55 EDTU.S. chain store sales slid 1.2% in the week ended May 16
U.S. chain store sales slid 1.2% in the week ended May 16, according to The Retail Economist, after falling 1.7% in the week prior. In fact, this is a 3rd consecutive weekly decline, a string that hasn't been seen since mid-January. However, on an annual basis, sales accelerated a bit to a 2.3% y/y pace, versus the 2.1% y/y clip previously, though it's one of the slowest rates in a few months. According to the report, unfavorable weather hurt apparel sales, but furniture and home improvement provided an offset.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are higher around the world
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds and stocks are higher around the world. Gains have been paced by European markets, inspired by comments from the ECB's Coeure and Noyer, who each indicated the central bank will accelerate bond purchases slightly in May and June and could extend the QE program beyond September next year if necessary. Also, European Commission President Juncker's optimism on a quick deal on Greece added support. Data also factored in as German ZEW and U.K. inflation unexpectedly declined. The German Bund yield is down over 7 bps to 0.575%, with the 10-year Treasury off 4 bps to 2.19%. There isn't a lot on the U.S. calendar today with just April housing starts and weekly chain store sales.
07:38 EDTCarver Federal Savings Bank / New York SBDC to hold a seminar
Profit Mastery Seminar is being held in Jamaica, New York on May 19-20.
07:37 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:35 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:19 EDTEuropa Organisation to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTCenter for Venture Capital & Private Equity Finance holds a symposium
34th Annual Michigan Growth Capital Symposium is being held in Ypsilanti, Michigan on May 19-20.
07:04 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:01 EDTFutures suggest higher open for U.S. market
Stock futures are higher this morning, taking their lead from rising overseas markets. The early catalyst appears to be statements by euro official who said the ECB was ready to expand its pace of bond buying in May and June before slowing it down in July and August so as to be less disruptive during the summer months. In the U.S., investors will get data on housing starts and building permits at 8:30 am EDT.
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 19
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05:52 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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02:35 EDTFX Update: The dollar has retained the perkier tone
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May 18, 2015
16:27 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
16:27 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:27 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:15 EDTU.S. housing starts preview:
U.S. housing starts preview: starts, due Tuesday, are expected to rise another 8.0% to a 1,000k pace, after the 2.0% March gain, still correcting from the 15.3% weather-impacted plunge in February. Despite the gains, starts are still below the recent high of 1,098k in July. Permits should improve to a 1,055k pace from a revised 1,042k in March (were 1,039k).
14:10 EDTAverages at session highs in afternoon trading
Stocks moved in a narrow range in the morning hours but have now broken out of their range and moved to new session highs this afternoon. The trading volume has been light, but advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by more than 5:4. Oil prices are down roughly 0.5% and gold is flat. A bit after 2 pm EDT, the Dow is up 39 points, the Nasdaq is up 32 points and the S&P is up 7 points.
12:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched the May 7 high
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12:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is lively for a Monday
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is lively for a Monday with 8 major issuers on the docket. Early estimates are for a $20 B to $25 B week, and frontloaded into the long Memorial Day holiday. Siemens headlines with a big 6-part deal, with 3-year fixed and FRNs, along with 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year coupons. McDonald's has a 3-part deal, including 5s, 10s, and 30s. Scripps Networks Interactive has a $1.5 B 3-trancher with 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities. Emerson Electric has a benchmark 6.5-year and a 10-year. Credit Suisse has a benchmark 30-year. Westpac Banking Corp is offering 3-year fixed/FRN, and a 5-year note, while Itau Unibanco has as 3-year note. Entergy Texas is selling $250 M in 30-year paper. Last week's sales totaled just shy of $45 B and brought the month's volume up to nearly $100 B.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was strong
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11:16 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Lymphomas and CAR-T on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 28 at 11 am.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $45 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:14 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Immuno-oncology on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 27 at 3 pm.
11:11 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:09 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:07 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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11:06 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:06 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss multiple myeloma on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 20 at 2 pm.
11:02 EDTLeerink biotech analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
As part of a pre-ASCO cancer call series, Analysts discuss Glioblastoma on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 19 at 10 am.
10:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model is sending worrisome signs on the economy
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is sending worrisome signs on the economy, projecting only 0.7% growth, after rather accurately predicting the Q1 growth slowdown to near zero. But the WSJ's Hilsenrath says in his Grand Central blog (subscription), don't put too much weight on the current estimate, quoting the Atlanta Fed's research director Dave Altig, who said the estimate "isn't telling us much of anything right at the moment." What the model does, he explained, "is build up in a consistent and reasonable way toward a real-time quarterly forecast as data comes in." Analysts and most other Street economists are looking for Q2 growth to rebound to about a 2% to 2.5% pace.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: bonds didn't react bullishly to the disappointing NAHB
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was the only dollar pairing to react
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 2 points to 54 in May
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10:07 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 09:30
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10:07 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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09:55 EDTTreasury Action: yields are extending higher
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09:44 EDTStocks start week with relatively quiet open
Stock futures improved slightly during the pre-market trading session, leading to a relatively flat open. The market begins the week near record levels and is looking for the catalyst to help propel shares higher. Investors will be watching the NAHB housing market index at 10:00 am EDT for clues on the housing sector.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied to intra day highs
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08:57 EDTPiper Jaffray biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are modestly lower as weakness from European bourses weighs
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08:44 EDTBofA/Merrill non-life insurance analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX rallied overnight
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08:29 EDTBofA/Merrill transportation analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Transportation Analyst Hoexter and Airlines Analyst Didora provide insight into the state of the transportation market as the mid-point of the 2Q is approaching, as well as an updated outlook for 2015, on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held to be held on May 18 at 11 am.
08:25 EDTFed dove Evans said the Fed weren't expecting the "pothole"
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08:22 EDTCowen healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:16 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility flat into Greek government credit uncertainty
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly lower
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07:54 EDTDA Davidson banks/thrifts analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:25 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
LatAm Growth Opportunities Conference 2015 is being held in London, England on May 18-19.
07:24 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2015 Payments & Card Conference is being held in Scottsdale, AZ on May 18-20.
07:03 EDTFutures slightly lower ahead of opening of new week
U.S. equity futures are below fair value following a weekend of quiet news flow. The first quarter earnings season is winding down and investors are beginning to look forward to the long Memorial Day weekend. Today’s focus will be on the housing data due out at 10:00am EDT with the release of the NAHB housing market index. Many have expressed concern that the housing rebound will remain muted for the foreseeable future as the Fed gears up to begin raising interest rates.
06:50 EDTFX Update: The euro has come under pressure
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06:27 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 18
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05:54 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
05:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has failed to sustain gains above 119.75
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03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro is consolidating in early week trade
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03:05 EDTFed dove Evans said that monetary Policy should be " sufficiently accommodative"
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May 17, 2015
11:02 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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11:02 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy- to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
April Consumer Price Index CPI will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
11:02 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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11:02 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
April Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.22M
11:02 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey General Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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11:02 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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11:02 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
April Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.029M
11:02 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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May 15, 2015
16:25 EDTTreasury reported foreign accounts sold $100.9 B in U.S. assets in March
Treasury reported foreign accounts sold $100.9 B in U.S. assets in March, after purchasing $28.8 B in February (revised up from $4.1 B). Private accounts dumped $90.5 B on the month, with official accounts liquidating $10.4 B. Data also show overseas investors bought $17.6 B in net long term assets in March after buying $20.9 B previously (revised from $9.8 B). Investors picked up $9.9 B in Treasury coupons (thanks to private accounts that bought $35.3 B, while official accounts sold $23.7 B), and $17.5 B in agencies, along with $18.8 B in corporates, while selling $14.9 B in stocks. China was the largest buyer of Treasuries at $37.3 B, followed by the Caribbean ($10.9 B), France ($10.2 B), and Switzerland ($10.1), with a massive $92.5 B sale from Belgium.
16:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:41 EDTAverage little changed and range bound as weekend approaches
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14:15 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: Treasury market conditions have calmed a lot since the big price swings in recent sessions which were blamed on positioning and the meltdown in Bunds. So, is it safe to get back into the market. Significant downward adjustments in Q1 GDP growth to -0.6%, according to the Median estimate, and signs of only moderate acceleration in Q2, have helped take a June Fed rate hike off the table. Though the 0.313% Median estimate for the September FOMC points to rate liftoff at the end of Q3, more data like today's will see tightening forecasts pushed out further. There isn't a lot of data next week and none should really alter the outlook. Housing starts are expected to rise further, back to 1.020 M, while existing home sale extend gains to a 5.222 M pace. CPI at the end of the week should post gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for the headline and core, respectively.
11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD made its way up to 1.2067
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10:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: today's data should nail the coffin shut on a June hike
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10:30 EDTThe sharp May Michigan sentiment drop to 88.6
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields extended lower
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell after the weak Michigan sentiment
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09:55 EDTThe 0.3% U.S. April industrial production drop
The 0.3% U.S. April industrial production drop undershot assumptions, though it followed upward revisions that left the April index level only modestly below our estimate. The utility sector continued is unwind from the February all-time high alongside an ongoing mining sector contraction. Analysts did see a welcome 2.6% bounce in the vehicle assembly rate to a 12.0 M rate, and the manufacturing activity was flat. On a quarterly basis analysts expect a Q2 industrial production contraction rate that matches the 0.7% (was 1.0%) drop in Q1, which itself marked the worst quarter of the expansion. Before the early-2015 petro-led factory sector contraction, analysts saw quarterly growth rates throughout this expansion of 1%-9% that left a net factory sector outperformance of GDP. Industrial production is slowing to the 2% area in 2015 from 4.2% in 2014, 2.9% in 2013, and 3.8% in 2012. GDP is tracking 2.4% growth in 2015 that largely matches recent rates of 2.4% in 2014, 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.
09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:40 EDTTreasury Action: there wasn't much reaction
Treasury Action: there wasn't much reaction to the disappointing production data, though intermediate to longer dated yields remain lower on the day. The 10-year has hardly budged from the 2.19% area. German Bunds are outperforming slightly as they recover from the week's heavy losses with the yield down 4 bps to 0.66%. There's much more calm in the markets today and a new range trade is likely to develop near current levels. Equities have pared their gains, but worries over the growth slowdown are soothed by expectations the Fed will delay rate liftoff into at least September, if not 2016. There's also a little profit taking after record highs on the S&P yesterday.
09:36 EDTFutures weaken ahead of bell leading to quiet open
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09:30 EDTU.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in April
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar turned slightly lower
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09:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar was steady versus the euro
FX Action: The dollar was steady versus the euro, and moved briefly lower against the yen after the slight Empire State index miss, which was nonetheless much improved from the prior month. EUR-USD remains near session low around 1.1330, as USD-JPY trades in the 119.80s. Industrial production is up next at 9:15 EDT.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities may extend higher
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08:55 EDTTreasury Acton: the market is holding its gains
Treasury Acton: the market is holding its gains after a so-so Empire State report. The 10-year yield is stabilizing around, and this morning just below the 2.20% mark. The long bond has slid to 2.986%, and a close here would be the first time below the 3.0% level this week. The data are consistent with expectations for a moderate bounce-back in Q2 growth. Treasuries are also finding support from Europe as bond yields are lower too, with the exception of Greece. The corrective, position adjustments seem to have largely run their course, according to trading sources, and with supply out of the way, selling pressures are limited.
08:50 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 14:45
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08:50 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 02:20
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08:50 EDT Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker Speech to be released at 19:10
08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 09:00
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08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 13:00
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08:50 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 13:30
08:50 EDTThe Empire State May bounce to 3.09
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08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index rose 4.3 points to 3.1 in May
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08:36 EDTFutures little changed following manufacturing data
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude stayed under the key $60 mark
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08:10 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The May Empire State Index is expected to rebound to 4.0 (median 4.0) after dropping to -1.2 in April. The April release included a decline in the forward looking new orders component to -6.0 from -2.4 which could pose downside risk to the release.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little firmer
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07:38 EDTFDA Gastroenterology and Urology Devices Panel holds a meeting
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07:17 EDTFutures point to higher open
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 15
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.83%, DAX up 0.45%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $59.54, natural gas down 0.13%, gold at $1216 an ounce, copper down 0.74%.
05:54 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
03:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled in the mid-119s
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03:19 EDTWeek of 5/27 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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03:19 EDTWeek of 5/18 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
02:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled near 1.1400
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May 14, 2015
16:28 EDTWeek of 5/22 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 11:00
16:28 EDTWeek of 5/22 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:28 EDTWeek of 5/24 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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18:59 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 5/23 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 270K
16:20 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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15:55 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The May Empire State Index will be released Friday to kick off the month's sentiment data and the headline should climb to 4.0 (median 4.0) after dropping to -1.2 in April. The April release included a decline in the forward looking new orders component to -6.0 from -2.4 which could pose downside risk to the release.
15:40 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: fundamentals should come back into play
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14:40 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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14:17 EDTStocks near session highs in broad advance
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13:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY did break through the 119 level
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: bond yields bounced
Treasury Action: bond yields bounced following the 30-year auction that came in shy of expectations after tailing out and a subpar cover. The current bond yield backed up over 2.06% briefly vs the 3.04% area ahead of the sale and compared to the 3.044% award rate on the new paper. That leaves the 3.10-3.12% area as the next target on the upside ahead of the 3.25% psych area, while the 3.00-2.95% zone reverts to yield support.
13:10 EDTTreasury's $16 B 30-year bond sale was on the sloppy side
Treasury's $16 B 30-year bond sale was on the sloppy side. The bond stopped at 3.044%, tailing out from 3.025%, after having richened a bit into the bid deadline. That rate compares to the 2.597% for April and is the highest award rate since November's 3.092%. There were $35.2 B in bids for a 2.20 cover, not better than last month's poor 2.18, and is a little below the 2.40 average. Indirect bidders accepted 50.8% and down from the prior 55.1%, though it's marginally above the 48.5% average. Direct bidders took 11.1% compared to the 7.5% in April. Primary dealers were awarded 38.0% versus 37.4%.
12:45 EDTU.S. bond technicals: yields backed up
U.S. bond technicals: yields backed up over a half percentage point on the cash bond from early April lows near 2.44% to May highs of 3.128% before steadying back near 3.055% currently heading into the $16 B auction results shortly. Thanks to the repricing of Bunds this has created quite a wide gap with both the 2.615% 200-day and 2.857% 100-day moving averages, which does leave some room for a mean reversion if not a bearish sea change in bond market sentiment. Near-term ranges are defined by Wednesday lows of 2.958% and Tuesday highs of 3.128% to set the next directional leg.
12:40 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview: outlooks are mixed
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11:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been on the rise
FX Action: USD-CAD has been on the rise, touching 1.1997 highs as oil prices slip nearly $1/bbl to near $59.80. Gold prices have eased from session highs as well, as the greenback overall regains some poise following the continuation of recent weakness seen overnight. USD-CAD made four-month lows of 1.1920 in London, though solid fund, option and corporate buying interest, reportedly layered into the 1.1900 mark, stopped the decline. The dip in oil prices has since prompted some short covering.
11:45 EDTTreasury/Bund Option Action: mixed flows have featured
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
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11:06 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:06 EDT10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
10-Yr TIPS Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828H45
11:05 EDTFly Audio player needs to be restarted
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10:45 EDTU.S. factory data revisions show a wide mix on the monthly numbers
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending May 8
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10:30 EDTA classic Twitter exchange on QE and art sales:
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10:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: a June Fed rate hike is off the table
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09:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed April PPI declines of 0.4% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, though analysts also saw a lean 264k initial claims level in the second week of May that left an encouraging mix of morning data overall. As seen with yesterday's trade price report, domestic energy prices remain depressed despite a WTI bounce, as core prices continue to drop in the face of a firm dollar and a weak global economy. Tight claims suggest upside risk to our 215k May payroll estimate, though analysts face downside risk from factory sentiment weakness and a lean ADP path.
09:39 EDTDow jumps in early trading after jobless claims sink to 15-year low
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09:30 EDTTreasury Futures Action: 10s are still holding a bid
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09:25 EDTThe 0.4% U.S. April PPI drop
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to a lean 264k
The 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to a lean 264k in the second week of May trimmed the prior week's 3k uptick to 265k to leave claims oscillating near the 262k cycle-low at the end of April. Claims are well below the 296k April BLS survey week reading, and have resumed the cyclical downtrend that became obscured in early-April by a temporary spike attributable to clumsy Easter seasonal factors. Claims are averaging just 264k in May, following higher prior averages of 281k in April, 285k in March, 306k in February and 290k in January. Next week's BLS survey week reading looks poised to undershoot prior BLS figures of 296k in April, 293k in March, 285k in February, and 301k in January. Analysts expect a 215k May nonfarm payroll gain that sits close to the 223k April rise but that beats the lean 85k March increase and the 184k Q1 average. Payrolls face upside risk from a tightening claims trajectory and heightened consumer confidence in the face of lower gasoline prices, though downside risk from factory sentiment weakness and a lean ADP trajectory through the 169k April rise.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities remained on a firmer tack
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08:45 EDTU.S. PPI fell 0.4% in April with the core sliding 0.2%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped only briefly
Treasury Action: yields dipped only briefly following the drop in headline and core PPI, as another small drop in jobless claims from already low levels helped offset the disinflationary news. That still shows the Fed missing on its inflation mandate and making further progress on employment. The T-note yield ticked below 2.25% briefly before rebounding over 2.26%, compared to the 2.29-2.24% overnight range. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed back inside +170 bp.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 1k to 264k in the week ended May 9
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08:35 EDTStock futures remain higher following economic reports
U.S. stock futures remain higher following the release of reports on producer prices and jobless claims. The data showed that producer prices fell 0.4% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the core reading was down 0.2% versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. The weekly jobless claims showed that there were 265,000 initial claims versus expectations of 273,000 while continuing claims came in at 2.22M versus the expected 2.23M.
08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude edged briefly under the $60 mark
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08:20 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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08:16 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Protecting Consumers: Financial Data Security in the Age of Computer Hackers" with CEO Pawlenty of Financial Services Roundtable and CEO Oxman of the Electronic Transactions Association on May 14 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
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08:14 EDTFDA Gastroenterology and Urology Devices Panel holds a meeting
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08:09 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:52 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:48 EDTWilliam Blair to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTFutures higher in quiet trading
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06:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD logged a fresh three-month high
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 14
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05:52 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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03:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has dipped below 119.00
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02:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid
FX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid following yesterday's U.S. data misses, particularly the weak retail sales figure which sparked downward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates to the -0.7% area from the initially reported +0.2% figure. This has seen the dollar's yield advantage erode back to the 155 bp area at the 10-year T-note versus Bund comparison, down from above 160 bp. EUR-USD upside markers are provided yesterday's peak at 1.1383 and last Thursday's 10-week peak at 1.1392. USD-JPY has settled in the low 119s after dipping to a one-week low of 119.03 yesterday. The Tokyo high and the 100-day moving average at 119.35 now provide near-term resistance markers. Cable remains firm after clocking a five-month high at 1.5769 yesterday on data showing above-forecast UK wage data and a new cycle low in the unemployment rate. The dollar bloc currencies have posted fresh highs against the greenback. USD-CAD has dipped to a fresh four-month low at 1.1924, breaching a big-picture support region at 1.1950-1.2000. Steadier oil prices and the recent erosion in the U.S. dollar's yield advantage have been driving the pair lower. AUD-USD logged a four-month peak at 0.8163, and NZD-USD cracked to a nine-day peak at 0.7567 following strong NZ retail sales data.
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