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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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May 1, 2015
17:20 EDTMore from Williams: didn't give anything away on rate liftoff
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17:10 EDTU.S. earnings announcements remain numerous in the coming week
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15:45 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTTreasury Action: the melt up in yields this week
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14:21 EDTMarket higher and range-bound in afternoon trading
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14:10 EDTA dose of upcoming Fedspeak next week
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13:55 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:20 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude showed little reaction
Energy Action: NYMEX crude showed little reaction to the Baker-Hughes U.S.rig count report, which revealed a 24 rig decline to 679, and down 879 from a year ago. The contract found a floor at $58.30, and is now trading at $58.65.
12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning has been the rule here today too on the short-dated rate contracts, with sources confirming a sale of 20k in September 96/97/98 call butterflies and a buyer of 10k in Short June 98.875 put/99.125 call strangles. Also, in underlying futures trade there was a sale of 20k in March 2016s from 99.20-99.19. December 2015s are still 2-ticks lower near 99.37, while the deferreds are 2-8 ticks lower out the curve.
12:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has virtually erased Thursdays gains
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12:40 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2 forecast cut to 0.8%
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2 forecast cut to 0.8% from initial 0.9% estimates yesterday in the wake of the 20% plunge in nonresidential structures in the model after construction spending sank 0.6% in March. Many market economists are still much higher in their forecasts for Q2 ranging from 2.0-2.5%, though focus is turning to next week's April employment update. for more detail.
12:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
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11:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar rally has continued
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11:25 EDTTech and biotech have repaired some losses
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11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are back on the defensive
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11:05 EDTThe Michigan sentiment April bounce
The Michigan sentiment April bounce to an unrevised 95.9 reversed the March drop to 93.0 from a similar 95.4 in February, as Michigan sentiment oscillates below the 98.1 cycle-high in January that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004. Today's lack of revision followed big boosts in the prior two months to leave an average boost of 0.9 in 2015, versus average hikes of 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. For other April measures, the IBD/TIPP index rose to 51.3 from 49.1 in March, versus a similar 51.5 in January and an earlier 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index is averaging a cycle-high 46.0 thus far in April from 45.0 in March, versus a 45.5 prior cycle-high average in January. The Consumer confidence index bucked the pattern of April increases with a drop to 95.2 from 101.4 in March, versus a 103.8 cycle-high in January. Confidence is benefiting from rising home and equity prices and the abatement of harsh weather, though analysts face headwinds from a bounce in gasoline prices after a steep prior drop and a petro-sector recession.
10:55 EDTThe 0.6% U.S. March construction spending drop
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10:42 EDTJefferies pharmaceuticals analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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10:37 EDTCredit Suisse economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:28 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:25 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:25 EDTU.S. ISM failure to reverse its post-October downtrend
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10:20 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment rose to 95.9 in the final April print
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10:17 EDTStephens retail/consumer analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Retail and Consumer Analysts provide a preview of the 1Q earnings results for the industries on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on May 1 at 10:30 am.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved initially lower
FX Action: The dollar moved initially lower following the ISM miss, weaker construction spending, and the unchanged final April Michigan sentiment outcome. EUR-USD moved briefly to new trend highs of 1.1290, though has been pushed quickly back into 1.1240, reportedly on heavy selling interest into the 1.1300 mark. Liquidity is light with much of Europe on holiday, likely exacerbating the pullback. USD-JPY meanwhile, fell back into 119.78 lows before bouncing to touch 120.00.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed highs
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10:15 EDTU.S. construction spending fell 0.6% in March
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09:55 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: The second release on April Michigan Sentiment should leave the headline at 96.5 (median 96.0) from 95.9 in the first release and 93.0 in March. Despite the headline improvement in the first release it has been a mixed month for confidence with the consumer confidence figure plunging to 95.2 from 101.4 in March.
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit final manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.1 in April
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09:50 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
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09:45 EDTMore from Fed hawk Mester: all meetings are on the table
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09:35 EDTWorkers gain slight edge in labor vs capital
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09:30 EDTU.S. Auto Sales Preview
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY rallied to one-week highs of 119.93
FX Action: USD-JPY rallied to one-week highs of 119.93, through the 50day moving average, which currently stands at 119.85. Offers remain in place at 120.00 with Japanese exporters and option back selling expected. Over the figure, the April 23 high of 120.09 comes into play.
09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has run up to 1.2149 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD has run up to 1.2149 highs, over the 10-day moving average, and levels last seen on Monday. The move comes as WTI crude slips under the $59 mark, from just shy of $60 earlier, and as gold futures fall to more than one-month lows of $1,169. Stops were tripped over yesterday's 1.2132 highs.
08:45 EDTCleveland Fed hawk Mester discussed consumer credit
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are on the mend
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are starting May on a negative note
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are starting May on a negative note with yields extending several basis points higher. A bearish tone has become firmly entrenched since yields broke out of their long standing range no the high side, with optimism over a Greek deal and supply also having weighed, along with better data yesterday. The 10-year yield has climbed to 2.07%. European bonds are mostly higher, with the exception of Bunds where the rate has risen to 0.366%. Volume was on the soft side as May Day holidays compromised liquidity. Overnight data showed China's PMI steady at 50.1, Japanese core CPI rising to 2.2% y/y, while spending plunged 10.6% y/y. U.K. April PMI unexpected declined. It's a busy day in the U.S. with April ISM, the Markit PMI for April, final April consumer sentiment, April vehicle sales, and March construction spending. Fedspeak resurfaces with comments from Mester and Williams, with only the latter a voter. Earnings announcements come from Chevron, Clorox, ITT, Newell Rubbermaid and Weyerhaeuser. Next week's economic calendar includes nonfarm payrolls, the ISM services report, and trade figures.
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude plied a relatively narrow trading range
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07:31 EDTSan Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:31 EDTFutures suggest a moderate market bounce
Stock futures are suggesting a moderate bounce, as data out of China indicated that the country's manufacturing and services sector showed signs of modest growth last month. Today U.S. investors will be watching several domestic economic data points, including construction spending, ISM manufacturing data, consumer confidence, and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count.
07:28 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
ugene Gholz, Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas discusses a major new study on how changing trade flows and energy revenues affect U.S. national security via two potential mechanisms: shifts in U.S. bilateral relationships with oil-exporting countries and disruptions in regional security in a discussion entitled, " National Security Implications of New Oil & Gas Production Technologies" in Washington, D.C. on May 1 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:21 EDTFDA Ear, Nose & Throat Devices Panel to hold a meeting
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07:18 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:51 EDTChina April PMI unchanged from March, Reuters reports
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05:49 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 1
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05:46 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
02:15 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended to a new two-month peak
FX Update: EUR-USD extended to a new two-month peak of 1.1266 in New York PM trade before settling to narrow range trading near 1.1200. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have seen a similar price action, while the dollar itself has managed to recover some recently lost ground against other currencies following perky U.S. data on Thursday. USD-JPY recovered from its foray to the mid-18s and is back in familiar territory in the mid-119s. Cable saw quite a sharp correction to the low 1.53s after peaking at 1.5498 on Wednesday. This occurred as EUR-GBP stormed to three-week highs on Thursday. Cable has rallied from sub-1.46 levels in little over two weeks, and a correction was starting to look overdue. The May-7 UK election should be a consideration given outcome uncertainties and the fact that Cable lost about five points during the final run-in to the last election in 2010. AUD-USD has settled around 0.7900 after the sharp retreat from Wednesday's 0.8075 high, which always a move too far as the RBA will be eager to do what it can to curtail currency strength at its policy review next Tuesday.
April 30, 2015
21:39 EDTWeek of 5/13 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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21:39 EDTWeek of 5/4 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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21:20 EDTChina's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in April
China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in April, as expected and identical to the 50.1 in March. The back to back readings leave this measure skimming just above the contraction/expansion level of 50.0 after it fell below in February to 49.9 and 49.8 in January. The index was 50.1 in December. The drop to below 50.0 in January was the first contractionary reading since September of 2012's matching 49.8. The official PMI contrasts with the HSBC manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.2 in April in the "flash", or preliminary report from a final 49.6 in March. Analysts expect the HSBC PMI to remain at 49.2 in the final report, due May 6th local time.
17:12 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 12:25
16:50 EDTU.S. Construction Spending Preview
U.S. Construction Spending Preview: Construction data for March is out Friday and should reveal an unchanged (median 0.5%) rate for the month following -0.1% in February. Current construction is currently up 28% from it's February '11 bottom. Some downside risk remains to the release in the form of Q1 weather disruptions.
16:45 EDTU.S. Manufacturing ISM Preview
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16:40 EDTU.S. Auto Sales Preview
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16:40 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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16:39 EDTFed Balance Sheet Level data reported
Week of 4/29 Fed Balance Sheet Level at $4.490T
16:39 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 4/20 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$1.9B
16:39 EDTWeek of 5/8 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:39 EDTWeek of 5/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
16:39 EDTWeek of 5/9 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary
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15:00 EDTFedspeak resurfaces in May and comments will be closely scrutinized
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14:15 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow model flags 0.9% Q2 growth:
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14:04 EDTMarket ending month on sour note
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13:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: standout call seller
Treasury Option Action: standout call seller no doubt added to the bearish tone today, selling 25k in June 128+ calls, among others. There was also some 22k total in put and put spread buying at various strikes that added to the bearish melee on 10-year futures. June 10s are 15.5-ticks lower near 128-01, compared to their 128-205 to 127-26 session range.
13:15 EDTStocks on the auction block again
Stocks on the auction block again with Apple -2.3% apparently looking a bit sickly and leading NASDAQ 1% lower once more, with the blue chips trailing lower in hot pursuit. NASDAQ is probing its 50-day m.a. at 4,961.97, while Apple is trickling below $126.00 and eying trendline support at 124.90. Likewise, risk proxy USD-JPY is coming off highs and gold is perking up a bit over $1,180.
12:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are back-peddling
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12:00 EDTGentle Ben has dig at "WSJ editorialists":
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11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY posts new highs for the week
FX Action: USD-JPY posts new highs for the week, peaking at 119.84, a sharp rally from overnight lows of 118.50. The BoJ's downgrades inflation and growth forecasts weighed on the yen overnight, while the perkier US. data this morning kept the rally intact. Bigger picture however, pent up yen demand from Japanese exporters will keep gains above 120.00 limited for now, and USD-JPY can be expected to remain inside of its broad 118.50 to 120.50 band that has been in place for a month.
11:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain near their intraday peaks
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11:30 EDTBund and bond yields pressed the high of the day
Bund and bond yields pressed the high of the day before pulling back, with the 10-year Bund yield hitting 0.386% - a level not seen since March 9 - and nearly probing 0.40% as the great unwind and euro rally continue to work at odds. The T-note yield probed 2.11% March 13 highs, but 2.259% March 6 high lies above. The Bund/T-note spread has actually narrowed a bit from -177 bp on April 17, when the Bund hit a record low yield of 0.049%, to the present with the spread at -172 bp. It appears the rebound in the Bund yield is closing the spread again - that's well in from wides north of +185 bp back in early March.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday
Treasury announced a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Monday. The size remains unchanged. Supply will lighten considerably next week with just the bills on tap. This week's auction volume totaled over $200 B. More limited Treasury supply may take some pressure off of Treasuries, though much will depend on the corporate calendar too.
10:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD showed minimal reaction
FX Action: USD-CAD showed minimal reaction to the earlier Canadian GDP data. falling briefly to North American lows of 1.2003, before heading higher. The pairing has peaked at 1.2095 so far. The greenback's broader rally helped sentiment, while the sharp sell-off in gold prices (futures now down 2.6% at $1,178), and WTI crude back under $59, has weighed further on the CAD. Since the end of March, USD-CAD fell as much as 6.5%, so some month-end short covering may not be too surprising.
10:40 EDTStocks are diving as "good news" on the economy
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 24
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10:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar remained at or near session highs
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields are on the warpath
Treasury Action: yields are on the warpath again turning higher in the wake of the hotter than expected Chicago PMI reading, on top of the earlier claims plunge, ECI jump and PCE rise. Relative to the dovish but data-dependent Fed statement yesterday, that has caught the bond market on the hop. The T-note yield has backed over 2.10% from 2.03% early a.m. levels to the highest mark in 1.5-months, with mid-March 2.15% level above and 2015 highs of 2.259% on March 6 in contention if the sell-off continues to gather momentum at an institutional level. The 2-year yield is back above 0.60% as well and the curve has steepened 3 basis points to +150 bp.
09:55 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI rose 6.0 points to 52.3 in April
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09:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC removed its calendar guidance yesterday
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09:50 EDTChicago PMI preview:
Chicago PMI preview: Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to 49.0 in April (median 49.0) compared to a 46.3 reading in March. For more detail see our ISM-related indices page.
09:50 EDTFX Action: Dollar gains have been significant
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09:40 EDTMarket opens lower on final day of April
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09:40 EDTA NY Fed report on algorithmic trading
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09:35 EDTThe 0.7% U.S. Q1 ECI rise beat estimates
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09:20 EDTToday's U.S. income report
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
U.S. equities are back on the defensive after grinding lower overnight, but above lows after a wave of early data that included flat personal income and 0.4% in spending, while Q1 ECI rose 0.7% and jobless claims plunged 34k. Asia was a bit messy with a 2.69% dive in Japan's Nikkei after the BoJ didn't spoon feed any more liquidity than before, while the HK Hang Seng sank 0.9%. Some equilibrium has returned in Europe, with another Greek deadline for Sunday and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.3% higher even after the euro forged to a fresh trend high of 1.1248 (it's back below 1.1175 now). Curiously, Apple is down 1% after many watch functions were disrupted by the tattoos of early adopters (really). The Dow is 26-points lower, S&P sank 2-points and NASDAQ is off 14-points ahead of the opening bell. In earnings news, Yahoo dove 18% after sub-par earnings, Baidu sank 4% after slow revenue growth. On deck is Chicago PMI.
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar advanced some
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08:50 EDTThe 34k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 262k new cycle-low
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08:45 EDTU.S. personal income was flat while consumption increased 0.4% in March
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08:45 EDTU.S. Q1 employment cost index climbed 0.7%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields ticked back up from lows
Treasury Action: yields ticked back up from lows following the sizeable plunge in jobless claims, which didn't seem to have any erroneous explanation, while personal income was unchanged and ECI 0.7% higher. On balance one firm data print shouldn't alter the weaker trend, though it will raise the stakes ahead of the jobs report in early May. The T-note yield based at 2.03%, rebounded over 2.05%, though remains within its rough 2.020-2.067% range. The 2s-10s spread is trading out at +147 bp.
08:44 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI data reported
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08:44 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims slid 34k to 262k in the week ended April 25
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08:35 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims data for the week of April 25th should reveal a 5k decline to 290k (median 290k) headline, down from 295k last week and 294k in the week of April 11th. Analysts saw the usual seasonal volatility around the Easter Holiday and claims in April look poised to average a higher 292k from 285k in March and 206k in February.
08:34 EDTFutures remain lower following economic reports
Stock futures remain lower following the release of the weekly jobless claims report and the personal income and spending reports. There were 262K initial claims versus the expected 290K, while continuing claims came in at 2.2M versus the expected 2.3M. Personal income was unchanged, versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, while spending rose 0.4% versus expectations of a 0.5% increase.
08:20 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
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08:15 EDTU.S. Personal Income Preview
U.S. Personal Income Preview: March personal income data should show income up 0.1% (median 0.3%) with consumption up 0.4% (median 0.5%) for the month. This follows respective February figres of 0.4% and 0.1%. Data from the March employment report present some downside risk to the release as aggregate income was only up 0.1% in March compared to 0.3% in February.
08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude posted new four-month highs
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08:08 EDTCowen solar analyst research team holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:41 EDTCFA Society of St. Louis to hold a dinner meeting
The Society holds a Dinner Meeting with John A. Gunn, CFA, former Chairman and CEO of Dodge & Cox and a chartered financial analyst, on the evening prior to activities associated with the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, in Omaha, Nebraska on April 30 at 5 pm.
07:40 EDTFederal Reserve Board Governor Tarullo tp speak at summit
Federal Reserve Governor Tarullo speaks at the Independent Community Bankers of America's Washington Policy Summit being held in Washington, D.C. on April 30 at 8:30 am.
07:39 EDTFDA Ear, Nose & Throat Devices Panel to hold a meeting
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07:21 EDTFutures lower ahead of economic reports
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07:20 EDTFX Update: The EUR-USD surge continued
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06:35 EDTGreece looking to pass reform law, Reuters reports
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06:20 EDTEuro zone consumer prices were flat in April, NY Times reports
Consumer prices in the euro zone were flat year-over-year in April, the first time in five months that they haven't declined, The New York Times quoted the EU as saying. Prices in the bloc rose slightly in April versus March ,and the bloc's unemployment rate held steady at 11.3%, the newspaper added. Reference Link
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 30
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05:56 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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05:53 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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03:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY rebounded from a one-month low
FX Action: USD-JPY rebounded from a one-month low of 118.49 after the BoJ lowered both its inflation and growth forecasts for both the current and next fiscal years. The central bank now expects CPI at 0.8% for the fiscal year 2015, down from the 1.0% projection in January, and GDP is now expected at +2.0%, down from the 2.1% previously forecasted. A similar trimming was seen for 2016. The yen weakened on this, with USD-JPY lifting to the 118.80 area from 118.50-60, and EUR-JPY recovering above 132.00 from 131.65. The revised forecasts will keep open the possibility of the BoJ making further stimulus later in the year. USD-JPY Resistance is at 119.16-24, which encompasses the intraday high and the 200-day moving average.
03:10 EDTThe BoJ lowered both its inflation and growth forecasts
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02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has drifted back under 1.1100
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April 29, 2015
17:20 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC held a conference call with media last month
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17:00 EDTWeek of 5/8 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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17:00 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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17:00 EDTImport Prices data reported.
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16:59 EDTWeek of 5/8 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
16:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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16:10 EDTFed Exit Risk Deferred:
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15:40 EDTFed funds futures remained weaker on the day
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15:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: a June rate hike seems off the table
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15:05 EDTU.S. ECI Preview
U.S. ECI Preview: The Q1 ECI is out on Thursday and analysts expect the headline to be up 0.5% (median 0.6%) on the quarter which would translate to a 2.5% y/y increase. Increases over the past two years have been driven primarily by growth in the benefits component and analysts expect this trend to continue with that component up 2.8% y/y. This compares to our wages and salaries component forecast which calls for a 2.3% y/y increase.
14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar knee-jerked higher
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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14:16 EDTFed pegs future rate hike on employment, inflation
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14:15 EDTFOMC remained on hold, and provided no explicit forward guidance
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14:04 EDTFed says economic conditions may warrant keeping rates low
The Federal Reserve said in today's statement, "When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
14:03 EDTFed wants further improvement in labor market to raise rates
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14:01 EDTFed says economic growth slowed during winter months
The Federal Reserve said in today's statement, "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors."
14:00 EDTFOMC T-Minus 10 and counting: the statement should be uneventful
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13:50 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
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13:15 EDTTreasury 7-year auction was ok, if not almost good
Treasury 7-year auction was ok, if not almost good, especially considering all the headwinds. The note priced well, stopping through at 1.820% versus 1.830% at the bid deadline, and compared to the 1.792% in March. Bids totaled $70.6 B for a 2.44 cover, up from last month's sub-par 2.32, but only modestly below the 2.49 average. Indirect bidders took a solid 54.1% versus 50.5% previously, and the 48.9% average. Direct bidders 12.8%, in line with last month's 12.3%, and primary dealers took 33.0%, down a bit from 37.2%.
13:00 EDTU.S. equities are extending declines
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12:42 EDTCBOE Interest Rate 5 Year Note up 5.7% to 14.58 into Fed policy meeting decision
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12:35 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook: this could be a problematic
Treasury 7-year auction outlook: this could be a problematic ahead of the FOMC's 14:00 ET announcement, and given the broad-based selloff in bonds. The wi has cheapened a hefty 6 bps to 1.825%, and the question is whether that will bring in buyers. An award rate there would be the third lowest since May 2013. Note too that today's German Bund 5-year offering was undersubscribed and there could be some related hesitation from indirect bidders, who have been carrying most of this year's auctions. On the positive side, there is a large paydown, while month-end index buyers may support. The March auction was awarded at 1.792% and garnered a sub-par 2.32 cover (2.49 average) and a 50.5% indirect bid (48.9% average). Direct bidders accepted 12.3% and primary dealers took 37.2%.
12:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to $58.81 highs
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11:40 EDTTreasury's 2 -year FRN was awarded at a high discount margin of 0.074%
Treasury's 2 -year FRN was awarded at a high discount margin of 0.074%. That compares to the 0.085% at last month's $13 B reopeaning. There were $57.1 B in bids for a 3.81 cover, versus 4.34 previously, and 3.72 for the Jaunary new issue. Indirect bidders took 62.7% compared to March's whopping 75.5%.
11:30 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is slowing
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11:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar index was down better than 1.1%
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10:50 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied
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10:35 EDTBernanke to join PIMCO as senior advisor:
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 24
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields simmered back down below highs
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is trading the 1.19 handle
FX Action: USD-CAD is trading the 1.19 handle for the first time since mid-January, so far basing at 1.1962, just above the January 20 low of 1.1952. The pairing has traded lower with the greenback overall, though the CAD has been aided by an upswing in WTI crude prices, which have moved over $57.30/bbl from earlier lows under $56.60. The 150-day moving average at 1.2018 provides resistance now.
10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales index rose 1.1% to 108.6 in March
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish put selling
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09:57 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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09:55 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
U.S. NAR pending home sales preview: the PHSI is expected to slip 1.3% to 105.5 in March from 106.9 in April. For more detail, see the NAR pending home sales website.
09:51 EDTHouse Natural Resources Committee to hold a hearing
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09:43 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee to hold a hearing
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09:36 EDTCBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index up 7.6% to 5.54
09:35 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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09:31 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation and Community Development holds a hearing entitled, "Exploring Opportunities for Private Investment in Public Infrastructure" on April 29 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
09:27 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
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09:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled a major U-turn
FX Action: The dollar pulled a major U-turn, rallying back broadly in the aftermath of the post-GDP sell-off. EUR-USD fell back to 1.1007 lows after peaking at 1.1073, as USD-JPY popped to 119.31 from 118.89 lows. Firmer yields prompting pre-FOMC position paring from intra day accounts has been a factor, though the market remains short of dollars overall going into the Fed announcement. Light market liquidity likely exacerbated the dollar's swift advance.
09:02 EDTSEC to hold an open commission meeting
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09:00 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. Q1 GDP growth clip
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar slid across the board
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
U.S. equities are back on the defensive rolling into the Fed decision, especially after the small 0.2% rise in Q1 GDP, though that "bad news" could be music to the ears of investors hoping for a deferral of Fed lift-off if the Fed is more dovish this afternoon. This followed a tame session in Asia with Japan out on holiday and a flat reading on the Shanghai Comp, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.5%. The Swedes left rates unchanged, which prompted a surge in the krona and another 1.6% drop in the OMX. Bund yields also surged past 0.25% after Gundlach of Doubleline joined Gross of Janus in his anti-bund bet. The Dow is 103-points lower, S&P fell 10-points and NASDAQ sank 23-points ahead of the open. In earnings news, Time Warner rallied over 1% after its 5% revenue gain, while Twitter steadied after its 24% overnight fall upon cutting its guidance. Lumber liquidators sank 15% after a 2% decline in net April sales to-date.
08:45 EDTU.S. GDP growth slowed to a disappointing 0.2% rate in Q1
U.S. GDP growth slowed to a disappointing 0.2% rate in Q1, much weaker than expected, after sliding to a 2.2% clip in Q4, from 5.0% in Q3. Weakness was fairly broad-based. Fixed investment declined 2.5% after Q4's 4.5% rise, versus Q3's 7.7% rate, with nonresidential spending diving 3.4% after a 4.7% Q3 gain, thanks to a 23.1% plunge in structures; residential spending rose 1.3% from 3.8%. Government consumption remained soft, falling 0.8% from -1.9%, with state and local spending down 1.5%. Net exports subtracted $50.7 B (-1.25%) from -$40.0 B in Q4, and after adding $29.0 B in Q3. Consumption spending was up 1.9% versus 4.4% previously. Inventories added $30.3 B (0.74%) after subtracting $2.2 B in Q3 with a hefty $110.3 B accumulation rate. The chain price index slid 0.1% after edging up 0.1% in the prior quarter, with the core rate up 0.9% from the 1.1% pace recorded previously.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed course from highs
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08:40 EDTFutures move lower following GDP report
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08:30 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
U.S. GDP Preview: The first release of Q1 GDP should reveal a 0.8% (median 1.0%) pace of growth for the quarter. This follows the stronger pace of 2.2% in Q4 and 5.0% in Q3. The outlook has deteriorated steadily over the course of the quarter thanks to a number of factors including weaker trade data, inclement weather and a soft run of inventory data.
08:10 EDTWhat the Pros think before the Fed decision:
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08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded down to $56.53
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was mostly lower overnight, though yields sensitive USD-JPY managed modest gains over 119.30 as U.S. yields moved higher, with the 10-year back over 2.0%. The European major currencies slipped however, led by EUR-USD's charge over 1.1000. The move came as Greece optimism improves with the installation of a new negotiating team, and ahead of what could be a more dovish FOMC announcement,. The 8:30 EDT release of U.S.Q1 GDP could set the tone for the morning, though given recent eroding expectations, an upside surprise could result in a dollar rebound. March pending home sales data are due at 10:00 EDT, followed by weekly EIA petroleum inventory data at 10:30 EDT. The FOMC announcement comes at 14:00 EDT.
07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker amid a mass exodus
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are weaker amid a mass exodus from bonds overnight. Trading volume was on the thin side, however, with Japan closed for its Showa Day holiday. Peripheral bonds are underperforming in general amid the new look Greek negotiating team. Germany is leading the decline in core bond markets with the 10-year Bund up over 8 bps to 0.245%, the highest since March 17 (the day before the more dovish than expected FOMC announcement) after a disappointing 5-year Bobl sale as CPI and Eurozone bank lending data picked up. Sources also say bond bears were out in force amid comments from Janus' Gross that Bunds are "the short of a lifetime." The ECB also increased the ceiling on Greece's ELA assistance. In other news, the Bank of Thailand cut rates 25 bps to 1.50%. Attention will now turn to the FOMC and its 14:00 ET policy announcement. It should mostly be a non-event. Data is light with just Q1 GDP, which is expected to slow sharply, and pending home sales. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 2.3% in the week ended April 24. Also today is the $29 B 7-year auction, with the 13:00 ET bid deadline prior to FOMC's announcement, and that could limit buying. Also there's the $15 B 2-year FRN (11:30 ET). As for earnings, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, Franklin, GFI, Hilton, Thomson Reuters, and Time Warner headline.
07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.3%
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07:29 EDTExecutives' Club of Chicago to hold a breakfast discussion
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07:27 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTFSXInterlinked to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTFSXInterlinked to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTFutures quiet ahead of data filled day
Stock futures are trading lower as investors pore over the latest round of earnings reports and get set for the next wave of results today. Investors will also examine the Fed’s statement following its two day meeting. The statement is due to be released at 2:00 pm ET. Prior to that, investors will be reacting to reports on GDP and personal consumption, as well as the Department of Energy inventory reports.
06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD pushed above 1.1000
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06:10 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 29
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05:55 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
02:15 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD extended to a three-week peak
FX Update: EUR-USD extended to a three-week peak of 1.0991 during the late NY session yesterday, and has since consolidated in an narrow ranged just off here. News earlier in the week that Athens has revamped its negotiating team has supported the euro. Good demand has been seen in EUR-JPY, too, which logged a three-week peak yesterday. EUR-CHF has also sprung higher, to the 1.0500 area. Elsewhere, USD-JPY edged out a nine-day low at 118.75. Declines from levels above 120.00 over the last week reflect broader dollar weakness for the most part. Markets in Tokyo were closed today as part of for Japan's Golden Week holiday. AUD-USD fell back below 0.8000 after surging to a three-month high at 0.8027. Analysts recommend selling Aussie here as the RBA will not like the pace of the currency's recent gains and will be sure to deliver a rate cut at next Tuesday's SMP. A GS research note also said that there is a risk that S&P places Australia debt on a negative outlook over the coming months, which is a view that's been in the background for some time. In China, meanwhile, the PBOC's chief economist also downplayed the possibility of QE, which is a further negative for the AUD.
April 28, 2015
17:02 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:02 EDTWeek of 5/9 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:15 EDTU.S. GDP Preview
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed up sharply into supply as another wave of corporate and 5-year sovereign issues flushed through the bond market and stocks were swept back and forth by Apple news and Iranian moves to take control of a Marshall-Island flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Consumer confidence dove in April, while the Richmond Fed index rebounded and Case-Shiller home prices rose more than expected. The FOMC kicked off its 2-day meeting and most expect the Fed to keep its cards close on the rate liftoff timing, while tweaking the outlooks on the economy and inflation.
14:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to head northward
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14:05 EDTAverages holding onto slight gains in afternoon trade
Stocks continue to drift in positive ground, as they have since about noon, with the Dow leading the way. The gains are moderate, but are being helped by solid earnings reports from some of the country's largest corporations. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by about 3:2 while up volume is also ahead of down volume.
13:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: a smattering of mixed flows
Treasury Option Action: a smattering of mixed flows was the rule earlier in the 10-year area, compared to more bearish positioning in 5s ahead of the auction there. Among them were bearish buyers of 2k in June 128/127 put spreads, 2.5k in June 128 puts and 2k in week-1 128.5 puts. Also bearish were sales of 3k in June 129.5 calls and 1k in June 129.5 calls. On the bullish side were buyers of 2k in July 135.5 calls, 1k in June 130.5/131.5 call spreads and a seller of 1k In July 128.5/126.5 put spreads. June 10s are 12-ticks lower near 128-30 compared to a session range of 129-13 to 128-285.
13:50 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
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13:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY sold off to match Monday's low of 118.78
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year note auction was solid
Treasury's $35 B 5-year note auction was solid, though a concession was needed. Indirect bidders again carried the sale. The auction stopped through at 1.380% versus 1.395% at the bid deadline (and it compares to last month's 1.387%). There were $89.4 B in bids for a 2.56 cover, better than last month's 2.35 but a little below the 2.62 average. Indirect bidders were awarded a strong 61.2% compared to March's 55.7% and the 54.1% average. It's the highest since November. Direct bidders accepted 5.6% versus 4.7% in March, while primary dealers were awarded 33.2% compared to 39.6% last month.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: 5-year yields reversed lower
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13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed began its meeting
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13:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning
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12:50 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview: the auction could be sloppy
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12:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: supply continues to pressure Treasuries
U.S. corporate bond update: supply continues to pressure Treasuries as the corporate calendar builds to challenge the government's $208 B in bill and coupon offerings. Oracle highlights with a 6-pronged sale of mostly longer dated debt, including 7-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 30-, and 40-year maturities. The book is reportedly over $18 B, however, so it won't be a problem in general. Also, Amgen is selling 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year debt. Cnooc has a mere 3-parter with 5s, 10s, and 30s. And, Lamar Funding is offering benchmark sized 10-year notes.
12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower
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12:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted fresh three-month lows
FX Action: USD-CAD posted fresh three-month lows of 1.2021, after running into solid resistance at 1.2100 earlier. Option and fund accounts selling was noted from the highs. The 150-day moving average, currently at 1.2018 may provide some support, as will noted corporate bids into the 1.2000 level.
11:45 EDTTreasury's bill auction results were very strong
Treasury's bill auction results were very strong. Perhaps all the market machinations and global risks prompted some flight into the bills. The $25 B 52-week offering stopped at 0.245%, just inside the 0.25% at the bid deadline, and a tad richer than the award rates from March. Bids totaled $102.2 B for a 4.11 cover, up from 3.71 at the prior auction, and the 3.94 average. In fact, it's the highest since July. Indirect bidders were awarded a large 47.0%, in line with the amounts over recent months. The $30 B 4-week bill was awarded at 0.0%, through the 0.010% at the bid deadline and below the 0.0150% for the last three weeks. There were nearly $126.5 B in bids for a 4.25 cover, much better than the 4.01 last week and the 3.74 average. It's the highest since October 2014.
11:40 EDTEmerging Asian Central Banks to Maintain or Increase Accommodation:
Emerging Asian Central Banks to Maintain or Increase Accommodation: Emerging Asia's central banks have shifted to even easier stances or held steady amid slower growth and elevated uncertainty in the region. Against this backdrop, the outlook is for either additional accommodation or steady policy through this year. Yet strength of the U.S. dollar may continue to challenge the ability of some banks to boost accommodation in order to support GDP growth, despite the recent cracks that have appeared in the dollar's ascent.
10:48 EDTU.S Navy denies confrontation with Iranian millitary, NBC News reports
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10:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook:
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10:35 EDTEnergy Action: Oil prices spiked higher
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10:30 EDTNASDAQ is tripping 0.8% lower now
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10:23 EDTCowen retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:21 EDTIran takes hold of U.S. cargo ship, Al Arabiya News says
Iran has taken hold of a U.S. cargo ship and its crew of 34, according to Al Arabiya News Channel. Reference Link
10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 3 points to -3 in April
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved to session lows
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10:13 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
April Consumer Confidence at 95.2 vs. consensus of 103.0
10:13 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. consumer confidence dropped 6.2 points to 95.2 in April
U.S. consumer confidence dropped 6.2 points to 95.2 in April, after rising 2.6 points to 101.4 in March (revised from 101.3). This is a big miss relative to expectations for a gain to 102.0, and is the lowest reading since December. The present situations component fell to 106.8 from 109.5 (revised from 109.1). The expectations index slid to 87.5 from 96.0. The labor differential (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) dropped back to -7.3 from -4.8, and is the lowest since December's -10.1. The 12-month inflation index decelerated to 4.8% from 5.2%. None of these data pieces are good news for the Fed.
10:00 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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09:39 EDTApple earnings helps lift market in early trading
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09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up
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09:12 EDT Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George Speech to be released at 13:15
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09:12 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 09:15
09:12 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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09:10 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rebounded 0.5% to 173.67 in February
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08:50 EDTThe Case-Shiller home price index preview:
The Case-Shiller home price index preview: The Case-Shiller home price index is due for February and may tick up slightly to 173.00 from 172.9 in January for 20-cities nsa.
08:40 EDTFed seen delaying liftoff to September to push down unemployment
Fed seen delaying liftoff to September to push down unemployment according to a Bloomberg survey, "as officials try to spur inflation and hiring after the economy stumbled in the first quarter. Policy makers meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington will assess the impact of a harsh winter and a stronger dollar, which may have helped reduce the pace of economic growth to the lowest in a year, economists said. A hiring slowdown last month is adding to caution inside the Fed Open Market Committee." This view is not a stretch and in line with the direction the "temporary slowdown" that should be evident in the latest downward revision in Q1 GDP tomorrow morning.
08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude maintained a relatively narrow trading range
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08:20 EDTChina easing as Fed waits by the exit door:
China easing as Fed waits by the exit door: China is launching unconventional monetary easing programs just as the Fed readies for an exit from its own low interest rate policies, according to WSJ's Hilsenrath in his Grand Central blog. That backdrop shows how much the risks on the map have changed. The PBoC "will allow Chinese banks to swap local government bonds for loans as a way to bolster their liquidity and boost lending. The strategy -- dubbed Pledged Supplementary Lending -- is similar to the long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, used by the European Central Bank. It points to a fault line created by the credit boom that helped drive Chinese growth in recent years -- local-government debt. Borrowing by towns across China jumped nearly 50% from June 2013 and accounts for a quarter of the buildup in China's overall domestic debt since 2008. Now China's commercial banks have become hesitant about buying new local bonds and the PBOC is stepping in to bridge a funding gap. This is evidence that China's economic slowdown is more serious than its official 7% growth objective implies. Moreover, the association with a credit buildup raises the risk of unforeseen financial shocks. World financial leaders believe Chinese officials have the know-how and resources to deal with such problems, but a credit bust can be a long and nasty thing. Is the rest of the world ready for the Fed to move on from its own credit bust?" he asks.
08:14 EDTBofA/Merrill media analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales rose 0.8% in the week ended April 25
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar continued on its path lower overnight, as expectations firm up for a dovish FOMC announcement on Wednesday. Given ongoing weaker incoming U.S. data, a June rate hike is now a close to zero proposition, with the timeline being shifted to Autumn, or even 2016. As a result, there has been no urgency to buy dollars so far this week. Analysts look for further USD erosion into tomorrow's announcement. On the calendar, February S&P/Case-Shiller home price index is due at 9:00 EDT, followed by April consumer confidence and the April Richmond Fed index, both at 10:00 EDT.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed, though the long end is outperforming slightly amid curve flattening trades. The 10-year yield hovered close to 1.91%. Bonds are mostly higher in Europe too, but were generally lower in Asia. The start of the FOMC meeting today, with the announcement tomorrow, is limiting activity and is keeping the front end of the curve contained. The 2s-10s spread has come in several basis points to 137 bps, at the narrower end of the 119 bp to 152 bp range for the year. In overnight news, U.K. GDP disappointed, coming in at 0.3%, half the expectation and versus the 0.6% rate from Q4. Stocks are lower globally, still seeing some profit taking after record highs on Wall Street. The calendar is heavier today with earnings from Aetna, Aflac, CIT, GoPro, McGraw-Hill, T-Mobile, and Twitter. Data includes April consumer confidence, the February Case-Shiller home price index, the April Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, and weekly chain store sales. Also the Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes. Looking just ahead, Advance Q1 GDP report will be posted Wednesday just ahead of the Fed's policy announcement.
07:49 EDTAtlanta Society of Finance & Investmen Professionals hold luncheon meeting
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07:46 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs to hold a committee
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07:44 EDTFCC to hold a public workshop
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07:43 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing
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07:42 EDTFDA to hold a meeting
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07:41 EDTIndependent Community Bankers of America to hold a summit
ICBA Washington Policy Summit is being held in Washington, D.C. on April 28-30.
07:39 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:37 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:34 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a symposium
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07:33 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a seminar
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07:29 EDTFutures suggest opening losses
Stock futures are suggesting a lower open, and the market appears ready to extend yesterday’s losses. Investors' focus has been on earnings and despite a stellar quarter from Apple (AAPL), the market seems reluctant to push higher. Investors will also be watching the day’s economic reports including the Case/Shiller home prices report and the beginning of the Fed’s two day FOMC meeting.
06:52 EDTTsipras optimistic but says referendum possible, Reuters reports
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he was confident that his government could soon reach a deal with the country's creditors, according to Reuters. However, he added that if the creditors demand terms his government deems unacceptable, he would ask the Greek people to vote on them in a referendum, the news service stated. Reference Link
06:16 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 28
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06:12 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
02:40 EDTFX Update: The euro continues to ebb and flow
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April 27, 2015
23:35 EDTReaction to the March Japan retail sales miss was mixed
Reaction to the March Japan retail sales miss was mixed with USD-JPY plying a narrow range around 119.00 and the Nikkei 0.5% higher on further stimulus hopes, though the BoJ was widely expected to remain on hold this week prior to the data. More contemporary April trade data was was a bit more market-friendly as well.
20:40 EDTJapan retail sales dropped more than expected in March
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16:35 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:35 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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16:35 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
15:25 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Preview
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15:20 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:50 EDTFOMC preview: Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday
FOMC preview: Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. While no policy changes are expected, the focus will be on the statement and the nuances in the forward guidance language that analysts doubt will provide any clarity on rate liftoff. However, it will be very interesting to see what the Fed says in place of the statement from March that "the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting." They probably won't be so forthcoming about the June meeting especially since they will stress the policy path is data-dependent. Nevertheless, assuming policymakers acknowledge yet further slowing in growth after saying in March that "growth had moderated somewhat," the markets should infer that rate liftoff in June is highly unlikely. Look for the Fed to also suggest, however, that some of the slowing is a function of transitory factors and that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Also, there could be some sign of optimism over rising inflation after the March CPI as well. All this should leave the door open for a move on rates some time this year. Analysts peg it in September.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are broadly unchanged in "wait and see" mode
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14:06 EDTAverages lower in afternoon trading
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13:55 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance will add to an already busy week
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance will add to an already busy week of events, supply, and data. A relatively heavy calendar has been a significant factor weighing on bonds of late. Headlining today is PepsiCo's 4-trancher, including 3-year fixed and floating, a 5-year and a 10-year. Also, Micron Technology plans a $1 B 2-parter including a 9-year and an 11-year. Texas Instruments is offering $500 M in 5s. This week's issuance is estimated at about $25 B as the Fed, data, and Treasury supply may be keeping some sidelined. Last week $60 B priced, the third time this year that volume has been above $60 B. March totaled $92 B. Credit spreads have been flat to slightly lower in recent sessions.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields steadied below highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury 2-year auction was routine, but leaned little to the soft side
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13:05 EDTNASDAQ is rolling over
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12:55 EDTU.S. 2-year technicals: at 0.525% is roughly mid-range
U.S. 2-year technicals: at 0.525% is roughly mid-range of its April 0.464% to 0.579% bracket, which is 0.5215% to be exact. The 2-year yield has been in a descending wedge pattern from highs near 0.735% on March 6, caught between the inversion of European yields with QE and the telegraphed unwind of Fed ZIRP. With risk of any major lift-off hints from the Fed remote this week, look for the rangetrade to continue, using 0.5215% as a pivot for now, while the 100-day m.a. of 0.5891% could provide a draw on any snap-backs or upside economic surprises against the grain.
12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview:
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is on N.Y. session lows of 119.01
FX Action: USD-JPY is on N.Y. session lows of 119.01, as the dollar overall suffers from broad selling on Monday. The Fitch downgrade of Japan overnight had little impact, resulting in a brief USD-JPY pop to 119.42 from near 119.20. The pairing remained over 119.20 through mid-morning in N.Y, though has since eased into the figure, as the greenback makes session lows versus the other major currencies. Analysts suspect the USD may be in for further selling into the FOMC announcement, where the market prices in more dovish undertones from the Fed.
11:45 EDTTreasury $48 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was stronger than expected
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11:41 EDTCerberus has hired IPO bankers for Safeway, CNBC says
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11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
Treasury Option Action: bearish put positioning has been spotted in the 5-year sector with a purchase of 6k in 117.50 puts on June 5-year futures. June 5s are 4-ticks lower near 120-165 compared to their 120-23 to 120-145 session range as the European stock rally takes a toll on bulls ahead of the FOMC.
11:15 EDTJanus's Gross posted a double-Tweet:
Janus's Gross posted a double-Tweet: "(1/2) Funny how bonds were labeled 'certificates of confiscation' in the early 80's. (2/2) What should analysts call them now when many interest rates are negative?" Bill, might analysts suggest: PPRF or "pillaging pensioners retirement funds?"
11:10 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday. This is a 4th straight week at this level. It brings this week's auction volume to $208 B, including the $90 B in coupons, today's $48 B in 3- and 6-month bills, Tuesday's $25 B in 52-week bills, and Wednesday's $15 B 2-year FRN. Front end supply might be a difficult sell ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision too.
11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched three month lows
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11:00 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index remained weak at -16.0 in April
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10:45 EDTEuropean stocks gathered a head of steam
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10:20 EDTCNBC studio opening in SF sign of Bubble 2.0?
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10:15 EDTS&P 500, Nasdaq extend record levels with early gains
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped to highs
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI fell 1.4 points to 57.8 in April
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09:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dropped to intra day lows
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09:19 EDTJPMorgan LatAm oil and gas analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are back on the rise
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08:45 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook:
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08:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude peaked at $57.41/bbl
Energy Action: NYMEX crude peaked at $57.41/bbl in early Asian dealings, before falling to $56.69 lows into the N.Y. open. After the recent rally stalled last week, the markets now appears to be reassessing the supply/demand picture, where talk of renewed demand over the past month or so, looks to have been overstated. On the supply side, U.S. inventories continue to post record after record, indicating further gains may be hard to come by for the time being. RBOB gasoline remains steady, though still over the $2.00/gallon level, as inventories slip back on reduced refinery usage. Natural gas futures meanwhile, gapped down more than 2.5%, to levels last seen nearly three years ago. The May contract trades at $2.46/M BTU, down from Friday's $2.53 close. Rising inventories, and forecasts for warmer U.S. weather have been the drivers.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have a slightly bearish bias
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have a slightly bearish bias, against the grain of small gains in most European sovereigns, though trading volume was thin. The 10-year yield has edged up to 1.92% from 1.89% overnight. Ongoing worries over Greece kept a bid in European bonds, but a weaker than expected U.K. CBI industrial trends survey didn't give much help to Gilts. Equities are mostly higher. There's not much on today's U.S. calendar, which belies a very busy week. Apple's earnings announcement will be the focal point. Data includes just the April Markit flash services PMI and the April Dallas Fed manufacturing report. The Treasury auctions $26 B in 2-year notes to kick off $90 B in auctions. There will be some set up for those, as well as for Wednesday's FOMC announcement.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:11 EDTMecklerMedia to hold a conference
Inside Bitcoins Conference & Expo is being held in New York on April 27-29.
07:10 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:10 EDTCFA Institute to hold a conference
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The euro gave back of last week's gains
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06:01 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 27
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.18%, DAX down 0.20%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $56.87, natural gas down 1.98%, gold at $1181 an ounce, copper up 1.02%.
04:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 119.20
FX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 119.20 after lifting from a one-week low at 118.77, which was seen during Tokyo trade. This still leaves the dollar below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. The latter of these averages is just above spot at 119.29. The Apr-20 low at 118.53 and the Mar-26 low at 118.33 mark key supports. Bigger-picture momentum still looks fairly flat, with the pair having been in a broadly sideways trading pattern since early December, which has roughly been centred on 120.00. There has been nascent speculation that the BoJ may taper its QQE program in 2016, though this is a minority view with just four out of 32 respondents at a recent Bloomberg survey expecting this, while there is a majority who still expect an expansion in stimulus by the end of October. BoJ Kuroda said in a speech on Apr-19 said that while the "underlying trend of inflation has improved...low inflation momentum" is threatening to pull inflation expectations lower.
03:10 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has come under pressure
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03:05 EDTFX Update: Market conditions were pretty subdued
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April 26, 2015
22:40 EDTMay Treasury Refunding Announcement to be released at 08:30
April 25, 2015
17:59 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
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17:59 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 09:45
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17:59 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
March Construction Spending will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 0.4% for the month
17:59 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
April Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 50.0
17:59 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
March Personal Income and Outlays will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.2% for the month
17:59 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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17:59 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
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17:59 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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17:59 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
GDP price index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the quarter
17:59 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change to be reported at 10:00
April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index level change will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is [2]
17:59 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Bus Activity Index to be reported at 10:30
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17:59 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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April 24, 2015
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields retraced this week's rise, pulling back to mid-week levels as the dollar declined and tech stocks forged higher. Gold extended its losses as well to session lows of $1,176 (lowest in over a month) and WTI eased 1.2% lower. This was a fairly resilient move on the behalf of U.S. assets, considering the lack of clarity on the economy and muddle on Greece heading into the weekend. The FOMC meeting will not have a press conference next week and shouldn't reveal much either, betrayed by Q1 GDP, while heavy sovereign supply looms.
14:36 EDTEuro zone says no more aid for Greece until reforms outlined, Reuters says
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14:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook: no change is expected from the FOMC
Fed Policy Outlook: no change is expected from the FOMC. The focus will be on the statement and the nuances in the forward guidance language, but analysts doubt there will be any clarity on rate liftoff. However, it will be very interesting to see what the Fed says in place of the statement from March that "the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting." They probably won't be so forthcoming about the June meeting especially since they stress the policy path is data dependent. Nevertheless, assuming policymakers acknowledge yet further slowing in growth after saying in March that "growth had moderated somewhat," the markets should infer that rate liftoff in June is highly unlikely. Look for the Fed to also suggest, however, that some of the slowing is a function of transitory factors and that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Also, there could be some sign of optimism over rising inflation after the March CPI as well. All this will leave the door open for a move on rates some time this year.
14:05 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:39 EDTFitch Ratings to hold a teleconference
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13:30 EDTU.S. daily Treasury receipts
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11:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish call selling
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11:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue retrace this week's rise
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11:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 119 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 119 handle, after posting four consecutive higher daily highs this week, culminating in an eight session peak of 120.09. Softer U.S. yields have weighed some, though with no further BoJ stimulus expected until Q4, yen bears appear to be giving up on help from the central bank. In addition, the dollar has lost some of its shine of late, as U.S. data disappoints, and as prospects for a Fed rate hike are pushed further and further out. The 118.50-20 region is likely to provide USD-JPY support for now, though a break of 119 should open the door for a move to the 116 handle.
10:34 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:32 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analysts provide on update on healthcare trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 24 at 10:30 am.
10:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied over 1.2160
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09:50 EDTNASDAQ is extending gains
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09:15 EDTThe U.S. durables report
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields have extended lower
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09:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bearish put positioning was in force to start the session, though the weak ex-transport durables print has revived the rate complex a bit. Among the deals was a 5k purchase of Short May 88 puts and 5k in Green June 80 puts. The December 2015 contract is a tick higher at 99.405, while the deferreds are 1-1.5 ticks firmer out the curve.
08:46 EDTFutures remain quiet following durable goods report
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08:45 EDTU.S. advance durable goods orders rebounded 4.0% in March
U.S. advance durable goods orders rebounded 4.0% in March, much stronger than expected, but that belies weakness in many key components. February's 1.4% decline was not revised, but January's 2.0% jump recorded previously was nudged to 1.9%. Transportation orders remain choppy, contributing to the sawtooth pattern in durables. They surged 13.5% following a 1.8% drop previously (revised from -3.5%), with January up 8.9% (revised from 8.8%). Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.2%, extending the string of monthly declines to 6 straight. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.5% and has posted declines since last September. Durable shipments were up 1.1% after sliding 0.2% lower in February. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft slid 0.4% after a 0.1% rebound in February (revised from 0.2%). Inventories increased 0.1% with monthly gains extending back to May 2013. The inventory-shipment ratio was 1.67 from 1.69.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields swung on firm durables reading
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially rallied
FX Action: The dollar initially rallied on the strong headline durables print, though quickly retreated again, as the ex-transport component disappointed. EUR-USD dipped to 1.0815 from near 1.0850, before popping back to near 1.0870, as USD-JPY rallied to 119.55 from 119.40, and has subsequently dropped back to 119.30. Equity futures remain in positive territory, as yields remain on a softer footing.
08:30 EDTU.S. tech stocks are on the rise again
U.S. tech stocks are on the rise again heading into the durables report after European stocks wrestled with their post Greek-Riga meeting disappointment following a firm reading on German Ifo. The Euro Stoxx 50 is only 0.25% higher and Athens is 2% higher. Solid earnings results for Google, Amazon and Microsoft also kept a bid in the tech sector after yesterday's record closing run, leaving intraday highs on the NASDAQ at 5,132.52 within striking distance. Apple also estimated that it expects to ship 20 M watches this year, above forecasts. The Dow is 11-points firmer, S&P gained 2-points and NASDAQ is 28-points higher. The rupture of the Comcast Time Warner Cable deal announced late yesterday continues to reverberate. But Google managed rising costs and the dollar well as advertising revenues jumped, driving its shares nearly 4% higher, while a Microsoft beat sent its shares 3.6% firmer. Post-earnings gains on Starbucks and Juniper Networks also featured. On the flipside were shortfalls by Biogen, Xerox, Altera and Pandora.
08:20 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude stayed away from Thursday's $58.36 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude stayed away from Thursday's $58.36 highs, and ranged between $57.31 and $57.93 overnight. Continued Saudi Arabia airstrikes in Yemen were behind yesterday's rally, though reports that an Iranian ship convoy, on its way to Yemen has turned back, has cooled market fears to a degree. RBOB gasoline futures extended Thursday's strong gains, peaking over $2.01/gallon, and at levels last seen in November. As the North American heating season draws to an end, natural gas futures continue to meander near the bottom of recent ranges, currently trading at $2.55/M BTU.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world, but small gains are evident in longer dated Treasuries, Bunds, and JGBs on safe haven flows amid Greek worries. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.95% in lackluster trading after testsing 1.97%. German Bunds are marginally firmer and erased earlier losses with the yield at 0.14% versus a 0.179% high. And the JGB closed over 2 bps lower at 0.279%. Reportedly Greece was "hammered" at the Riga meeting with the Eurogroup postponing a decision until the May meeting. Meanwhile, equities are higher after Germany's Ifo index surprised to the high side and added to the bullish mood after the Nasdaq hit new record highs yesterday. Today's March durable goods data will be of interest, but its volatile nature may limit market response. The Markit PMI services data are also due, along with the April Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Earnings reports from American Airlines, AstraZeneca, McClatachy, Siemens, and Steven Madden will round out a very busy week.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are little changed around the world
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD rallied to 1.0900
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07:09 EDTFutures quiet ahead of day’s trading
Futures are quiet as investors pore over the latest round of earnings reports. Overseas, German business confidence rose for the sixth straight month and the Greek saga continued as the country’s Prime Minister took his appeal directly to Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. Both leaders sounded somewhat optimistic after the meeting. However, EU officials cautioned that significant differences on several issues remain between Athens and its creditors.Today U.S. investors will be watching the durable goods orders report and the Baker Hughes rig count data, in addition to a new round of earnings reports.
07:01 EDTCFA Society of Minnesota to hold a luncheon meeting
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD U-turned lower from a 17-day high on Greece news
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06:35 EDTMerkel says Greece must be prevented from running out of cash, Reuters says
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06:09 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 24
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05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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04:04 EDTWeek of 4/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:05 EDTWeek of 5/6 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD settled around 1.0800
FX Update: EUR-USD settled around 1.0800 after pushing to a peak at 1.0845 on Thursday, which fell 3 pips short of last Friday's peak. Encouraging talk from Greek officials regarding prospects for a deal by the end of April helped give the euro a lift yesterday, but this optimism isn't being shared by creditors. Focus today will be on the Eurogroup meeting, though no one is expecting any breakthrough in negotiations. USD-JPY has sunk back to the mid-119s after failing to sustain gains above 120.00 following four consecutive days of moderately higher highs. The dollar is now trading back below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. Support is marked at 119.30-34, which encompasses the prevailing position of the 200-day moving average Wednesday's low. AUD-USD edged out a two-day high at 0.7796 and AUD-NZD a one-month high despite the latest Bloomberg survey finding that 23 of 26 expect the RBA to cut rates May-5. The OIS market is also pricing in 54% odds of a 25bp cut. The AUD's yield advantage has nonetheless risen to new highs around 59 bp at the 10-year U.S. versus Australian debt maturity.
April 23, 2015
16:46 EDTWeek of 5/1 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:46 EDTWeek of 5/3 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
16:46 EDTWeek of 5/2 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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15:20 EDTComcast to abandon deal with Time Warner Cable
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market recovered some composure on Thursday even as stocks powered ahead led by NASDAQ clearing its all-time closing high thanks to a string of bad economic news that may keep the Fed at bay. One trigger appeared to be the 11.4% plunge in new home sales, while Markit flash PMI sank following rounds of weaker EMU and UK data. Janus' Gross continued to double-down on his short-Bund strategy, while a massive AT&T debt launch sparked some hedge lock unwinding.
14:52 EDTStocks near session highs in afternoon trading
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14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed to eek out an eight session high of 120.09
FX Action: USD-JPY managed to eek out an eight session high of 120.09, though continued Japanese exporter offers would not let the pairing climb further. From the early session peak, the pairing then turned south, following the dollar's broadly weaker backdrop. The bleeding was stopped at 119.48 lows, just over the Wednesday base, and just under the 20-day moving average. USD-JPY remains in range trade mode overall, largely maintaining a 118.50 to 120.50 band over the past six weeks or so.
13:50 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: March durable goods data is out Friday and should reveal a 1.5% (median 0.8%) increase for orders. Shipments are expcted to grow by 0.5% with inventories up 0.3%. Data in-line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.69 for a second month. There is some downside risk to the release from the -0.6% decline in industrial production for the month and the drop in Boeing orders which fell to 39 from 72 in February.
13:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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13:45 EDTTreasury Action: AT&T $17.5 B debt launch
Treasury Action: AT&T $17.5 B debt launch is said to be behind the uptick in prices at the long-end, according to sources, presumably as any rate locks are being unwound.
13:35 EDTCommodity Action: RBOB gasoline futures are up 13 cents
Commodity Action: RBOB gasoline futures are up 13 cents from Wednesday's lows, rallying to five-month highs, and trading over the $2.00/gallon mark for the first time since the beginning of December. The larger than expected drop in gasoline inventory, reported yesterday by the EIA started the steep rally, with buying stepping up on the break of the $1.9550 one-week high posted on Monday. NYMEX crude meanwhile, is up nearly $2/bbl trading over $58.00.
13:30 EDTFund manager says Nav Sarao a hero, not goat
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13:15 EDTTreasury $18 B 5-year TIPS sale was solid
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12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year TIPS preview: the auction is expected to be well covered
Treasury 5-year TIPS preview: the auction is expected to be well covered. However, one stumbling block is a relatively rich valuation. The wi trades at -0.34%, down 5 bps on the day. And a stop there would be the lowest since the -0.375% award rate from December 2013 (but it was at a record low of -1.496% at the December 2012 auction). The $18 B new issue amount is also above the $16 B reopen volume, which could make the bid cover look a little soft. Nevertheless, a variety of factors support today's sale, including the acceleration in core CPI this year, including the increase to a 1.8% y/y rate in March. Oil prices have been on the rise since mid-March to add to the uptick in inflation outlooks. There's also a large month-end extension that could see some front running today. The indirect bid should remain very strong. The December 5-year TIPS was awarded at 0.395% and garnered a 2.37 cover and a 64.8% indirect bid.
12:40 EDTDouble-top? NASDAQ cleared record closing highs
Double-top? NASDAQ cleared record closing highs of 5,048.62 set all the way back on March 10, 2000 - about 15-year ago. The comp is about 0.3% higher near 5,050. The all-time intraday high is 5,132.52, however, which is still a few points away.
12:20 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are rebounding
Treasury Action: Treasuries are rebounding, even as gains in European sovereigns fade. The 10-year Treasury yield neared the 2.0% mark again, and that has attracted real money demand, which has helped knock the rate back down to 1.96%. Slowing in manufacturing PMI data in the U.S. and Europe, and further contraction in China's index, were more evidence of the slowdown in growth, and suggest Q2 is still suffering from the various factors that weakened Q1, including the stronger dollar, erosion in oil/mining industries, and the ports strike. Clearly the FOMC will be cognizant of these elements as they meet next week. No policy changes expected, but the markets will focus on the statement for any new indications of the Committee's concerns over their growth and inflation outlooks. Treasuries should remain cautious into the FOMC, while also taking into account the likely better than $200 B in bill and coupon auctions next week. Meanwhile, the upcoming $18 B 5-year TIPS sale should be well subscribed.
12:00 EDTEurozone Investment Weakness Remains:
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11:40 EDTJanus' Gross is doubling down on his short-Bund
Janus' Gross is doubling down on his short-Bund trade recommendation, Tweeting: "Bunds are a great short but so is Bund volatility - a great short. Skin the cat in 2 ways." Note, earlier in the week he had Tweeted: "German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE". Bund yields hit a record low of 0.049% on last Friday and have since backed up to a high of 0.173% today before pulling back to 0.161%. Perhaps someone is taking Bill's Bund spoof literally this week and jamming a few offers through.
11:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: more bearish positioning
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11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 12:45
11:10 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 13:30
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11:10 EDT Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayan Kocherlakota Speech to be released at 20:00
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11:10 EDT Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans Speech to be released at 12:25
11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 15:10
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11:10 EDT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech to be released at 15:25
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11:10 EDT Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester Speech to be released at 08:30
11:10 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo Speech to be released at 08:30
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11:10 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828WZ9
11:10 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:10 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828K41
11:10 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
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11:10 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings
Treasury announced a $90 B 3-pronged package of offerings, along with a $15 B 2-year FRN for sale next week. These include a $26 B 2-year auction (Monday), a $35 B 5-year (Tuesday), and a $29 B 7-year (Wednesday). Also detailed was a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale (Monday) and a $25 B 52-week bill (Tuesday). The heavy calendar could be problematic for the Treasury market as the auctions mostly precede the FOMC announcement. Additionally, current yields are a bit richer than they were at the March auctions.
11:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning on bonds
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11:00 EDTTreasury Supply: a $90 B package of coupon offerings
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has traded through 1.2200
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10:40 EDTThe 11.4% U.S. new home sales drop
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10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending April 17
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10:25 EDTTreasury Action: trading remains choppy into the weekend,
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10:18 EDTPresident Obama to make a statement
President Obama makes a statement from the White House on April 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields tipped slightly lower
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped
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10:11 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales dropped 11.4% to 481k in March
U.S. new home sales dropped 11.4% to 481k in March, from an upwardly revised 543k in February (was 539k), with January's 500k now at 514k. That's weaker than expected. Regionally, only the Midwest increased. The month's supply of homes climbed to 5.3 from 4.6 (revised from 4.7), and is the highest since November's 5.7. The median sales price fell 1.5% to $277,400 from a revised $281,600 (was $275,500). That's down 1.7% y/y, however, after a 4.9% y/y gain in February.
10:00 EDTU.S. new home sales preview:
U.S. new home sales preview: new home sales are expected to decrease -7.2% to a 500k unit pace in March (510k median) from 539k in February. Forecast risk is downward, given the drop in March NAHB to 52 from 55, though existing home sales surged 6.1% yesterday to a 5.19 M pace. preview.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI fell 1.5 points to 54.2 in April
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
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09:49 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 4/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 45.4
09:20 EDTU.S. stock index futures have been pointing lower
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09:10 EDTTreasury Action: there wasn't much reaction to the claims data
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims uptick to 295k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased slightly
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08:44 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims inched up 1k to 295k in the week ended April 18
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08:36 EDTFutures remain lower following jobless claims data
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little firmer
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:37 EDTHouse Committee on Science, Space & Technology to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Banning Proven Technologies on Possibilities Instead of Probabilities" on April 23 at 9 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFutures lower on Greece, European recovery concerns
Stock futures are lower in early trading as investors react to concerns about the Greek debt crisis, weaker economic data out of Europe, and unimpressive corporate earnings. Today U.S. investors will examine weekly jobless claims data which is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET.
07:23 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Healthcare holds a hearing entitled, "Fresh Look at the Impact of the Medical Device Tax on Jobs, Innovation and Patients" on April 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:15 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:13 EDTFDA to hold a forum
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07:04 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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06:43 EDTPreliminary China PMI missed expectations, Reuters says
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06:35 EDTEuro zone PMI missed expectations in April, NY Times says
Markit's purchasing managers' index for the euro zone came in at 53.5 in April, down from 54.0 in March, according to The New York Times. Economists had expected the reading to rise slightly in April compared with March, the newspaper noted, but added that the April reading was still close to an 11 month high. Reference Link
05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 23
Globex S&P futures are recently down 3.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.27%, DAX down 0.78%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $56.07, natural gas down 0.36%, gold at $1187 an ounce, copper down 0.22%.
05:51 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
04:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has drifted lower
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02:25 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD trading has been somewhat erratic
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01:45 EDTBoJ boss Kuroda said that a QQE exit is not being considered
BoJ boss Kuroda said that a QQE exit is not being considered, though the technical details of an exit are. He stressed that policymakers would not attempt to get results by surprising markets. On CPI, he stuck to the boilerplate is saying that he expects inflation to pick up in the second half of the financial year, though the 2% target may not be achieved until early in the next financial year.
April 22, 2015
22:20 EDTChina's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April
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21:38 EDTApril Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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17:13 EDTWeek of 5/1 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:31 EDTDeutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETFþ volatility elevated
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:59 EDTAverages at session highs in late day trading
The averages are in positive territory and have stretched their gains to session highs. The move is broad based, with the S&P 500 now up about 0.5%. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4, while up volume is ahead of down volume by an even greater margin. Crude oil prices are lower and gold, which has been under pressure all day, is down 1.4%.
14:45 EDTTreasury Action: debt managers sell $18 B in 5-year TIPS Thursday
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13:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures toppled lower
Euro$ interest rate futures toppled lower thanks to the rout on the rate complex, sped by the uptick in existing homes sales and spillover selling from European Bunds and Gilts. The December 2015 contract is 2-ticks lower at 99.365 (implied 0.635%), while the deferreds are 2-7 ticks lower further out the curve. Among recent option deals was a bearish purchase of 5k in Green July 75/77/80 put butterflies and 4k purchase of Short December 85 puts.
13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has put in its third consecutive higher daily high,
FX Action: USD-JPY has put in its third consecutive higher daily high, peaking at 119.96. Reports of Japanese exporter offers from the 120.00 mark have been heard, which have so far kept the figure out of range. With U.S. yields firmer, and risk appetite supportive, downside may be limited from here. The April 14 peak of 120.12 is the next upside target, and should be easy to attain, with buy-stops reposted at 120.05.
12:20 EDTU.S. equities sustained shallow gains
U.S. equities sustained shallow gains after riding out the much stronger than expected existing home sales print, which brought Fed hike debate back to the surface. Europe remained quite mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.14% higher and the German DAX off 0.6% after the ECB reportedly raised the ELA for Greek banks. The Dow settled under 18k, NASDAQ over 5k and S&P near 2.1k, marginally higher. Top gainers in the Dow are Visa +5.3%, McDonald's +2.4% and Coca-Cola +1.0%, while deepest declines were by Boeing -2.3%, UnitedHealth -0.9% and Intel -0.8%. The VIX equity volatility index is 2.6% lower near 12.90, while the USD index is back over 98.0.
11:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: eerily quiet flows
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11:19 EDTWeek of 5/1 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
11:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: Harris Corp has a $2.4 B multi-tranche deal
U.S. corporate bond update: Harris Corp has a $2.4 B multi-tranche deal set to price, including 3-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year maturities. Citigroup has a benchmark 3-year fixed/FRN, and a 10-year deal on tap. IBRD is offering benchmark 3-year notes. Africa Finance Corp launched a $750 M 5-year. Blackstone is offering $350 M in 30-year bonds.
11:02 EDTBofA/Merrill data center analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $57.15 from $56.05
Energy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $57.15 from $56.05 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 5.3 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 3.0 M bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.0 M bbls actually fell 2.1 M bbls, while distillate stocks were up 400k bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 M bbl increase. Refinery usage fell to 91.2% from 92.3%. The crude contract had been on the decline into the data, presumably as the market tried to get ahead of what might have been a higher stock build. With that not the case, weak shorts have been squeezed.
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of April 17
Crude oil inventories 5.32M build vs. consensus of 3.2M build. Gasoline inventories 2.14M draw vs. consensus of 1.0M draw. Distillates 395K build vs. consensus of 1.1M build.
10:30 EDTThe 6.1% U.S. existing home sales pop
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales surged 6.1% to 5.190 M in March
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields ramped higher still
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10:05 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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10:02 EDTHouse Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
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10:00 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:56 EDTAverages slightly lower in early trading
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09:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields spoofed higher again
Treasury Action: yields spoofed higher again with some eying stop-running on Bunds for the T-note yield surge through Tuesday highs of 1.92% to probe above 1.93% for this positioning move. Again, it's not as if stocks are opening particularly well, though others suggest vaguely that FHFA home prices may have been a little hot. The Bund yield accelerated over 0.10% to clear 0.127%. Perhaps some "layering or jamming" is spilling over from the USD-JPY spike to highs of 119.78, though how could that be if "Flash Crash" trading Nav Sarao is under house arrest?
09:50 EDTTreasury Action: yields are higher with the 10-year Treasury hitting 1.93%
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09:20 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.7% in February
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09:10 EDTU.S. equities dug out of a shallow hole
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09:08 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change data reported
February FHFA House Price Index M/M change up 0.7% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has bounced
FX Action: USD-CAD has bounced from its 1.2211 lows, currently trading at 1.2245. The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2222, continues to put a floor under the pairing, while the dip in oil prices has limited downside as well. WTI crude appears to be on the rise again however, which could put USD-CAD in a holding pattern for now.
08:50 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index preview:
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08:50 EDTFed dove Rosengren says the Fed may need to delay rate hikes
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08:40 EDTStrange seasonality of Fed decision making
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07:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell back to $55.70
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 2.3%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed with the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield dipped to 1.889% earlier, but has risen to 1.909% currently. European bonds also rallied with the German Bund sliding to 0.08% before edging up to 0.099%. Gilts are underperforming, up over 5 bps to 1.62% after the BoE MPC minutes indicated the next rate move is likely to be up, and the action could be sooner if inflation firms once base effects from oil prices drop out of the equation. Meanwhile, the German government boosted its growth forecast to a 1.8% pace. Japanese trade data showed a trade surplus for the first time since June 2012, with exports up 8.5% y/y, underpinning hope that the BoJ's aggressive easing and the weaker yen have been effective. In the U.S. today, earnings reports will dominate again with Boeing, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, eBay, Angie's List, AT&T, Lorillard, and Cheesecake Factory highlighting. Data includes only March existing home sales and weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications rebounded 2.3% in the week ended April 17, erasing the prior week's -2.3%.
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar eased some overnight, as EUR-USD touched the 1.08 mark following apparent progress in EU/Greece debt talks. USD-JPY idled around a 119.50 midpoint, as cable rallied after more hawkish MPC minutes. The U.S. calendar reveals February FHFA home price data at 9:00 EDT, followed by March existing home sales at 10:00 EDT. Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data are due at 10:30 EDT.
07:23 EDTVolatility continues as futures suggest lower open
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07:21 EDTFDA to hold a forum
Regulatory Education for Industry (REdI): Generic Drugs Forum is being held in Silver Spring, Maryland on April 22-23 with presentations to begin on April 22 at 8:20 am. Webcast Link
07:19 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:17 EDTThe Linley Group to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a summit
4th Annual OCIO Summit to be held in Boston on April 22-23.
06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded mostly softer
FX Update: The dollar traded mostly softer, including against the euro, sterling, and dollar bloc units, though held fairly steady against the yen. EUR-USD clocked two-day highs in touching 1.8000, which marked a gain of about 70 pips from yesterday's closing level and extended the recovery from the six-day low at 1.0659. Behind the euro's rally today is an abatement in Grexit concerns, at least over the nearer term. Sterling rallied on the MPC minutes to the April meeting, which noted that all members agreed that a repo rate hike was more likely than not over the three-year forecast period and that two members regarded the decision as finely balanced. AUD-USD rallied to a two-day high of 0.7807 on Australian CPI data, which in Q1 rose 0.2% q/q and 1.3% y/y, both in line with median forecasts, though the trimmed mean CPI rose to 2.3% y/y, above the 2.2% y/y rate expected.
06:21 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 22
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02:35 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has settled in the mid-1.07s
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April 21, 2015
21:05 EDTJapan's trade balance shifted to a 229.3 B yen surplus in March
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17:48 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:48 EDTWeek of 5/2 Redbook to be released at 08:55
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has dropped to session lows
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14:07 EDTNasdaq leads, Dow lags in mixed afternoon trading
Stocks remain mixed in afternoon trading, as they have been since the opening hour. The Nasdaq has been strong all session and remains in positive territory, while the Dow and S&P have struggled. Advancing stocks are just about equal with declining stocks, while down volume is ahead of up volume. WTI crude oil prices are lower by 1% today ahead of tomorrow's weekly energy inventory reports.
13:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: March existing home sales data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 3.5% increase for the headline to a 5.050 M (median 5.030 M) pace following the 1.2% increase to a 4.880 M pace in February. March housing starts have already been released for the month and revealed a rebound to 0.926 M after a big February dip to 0.908 M.
13:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a couple of big offerings are weighing
U.S. corporate bond update: a couple of big offerings are weighing on Treasuries in an otherwise quiet trade. Sinopec Group leads the way with a hefty $4.8 B 3-trancher, including $2.5 B in 5-year notes, a $1.5 B 10-year, and an $800 M 30-year. KFW has a $3 B 10-year. ADB announced a $2 B 2-year sale. Scentre Group has a benchmark offering including a 6-year and a 10.5 year deal. Suncorp-Metway launched a $600 M 5-year. IBRD is offering benchmark sized 3-year notes. ADB has a $2
12:05 EDTU.S. equities are consolidating gains
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was routine but solid
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11:10 EDTBoston Fed dove Rosengren said "some experimentation"
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish leaning against grain
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY peaked at 119.83
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10:25 EDTU.S. Philly Fed's non-manufacturing index dropped to 41.0 in April
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries remain locked in a narrow range
Treasury Action: Treasuries remain locked in a narrow range, stymied by a lack of news and various global counterweights of central bank intervention, growth concerns, foreign exchange flows, geopolitical risks, as well as exogenous factors. The 10-year note yield has closed inside 1.96% and 1.85% since March 17. But current positioning data suggest there's room for lower yields given the right catalyst. JPMorgan reported its Treasury "all client" survey showed the most shorts since the first week of October at 28, versus 24 in the prior week. Long positions rose to 11 from 9, while Neutral dropped to 61 from 67. The "active client" survey showed shorts jumping to 25 from 17, longs unchanged at 8, and neutrals falling to 67 from 75.
09:50 EDTNet long positioning on euro$s rate futures is the highest
Net long positioning on euro$s rate futures is the highest at $508.69 B (week ended April 14), since the "taper tantrum" in May of 2013, according to TD Securities analysis cited by the WSJ. The dovish tilt at the Fed of late and pause in the recovery have all fed the bullish trade, which has undercut the prospects of a June rate lift-off and now favors September. Author Min Zeng cites yesterday's dovish Fedspeak from Dudley, as did Fedwatcher Hilsenrath in his Grand Central blog, though warning this could again be a lopsided trade if the economy's underpinnings prove more solid than expected.
09:46 EDTEarnings help lift market in early trading
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09:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the next FOMC meeting is now a week away
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows
FX Action: USD-CAD is near intra day lows, trading at 1.2225, after basing at 1.2215 into the open. The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2220 has provided early support, as has talk of option backed bids parked at 1.2200. Sell stops are expected under 1.2180, which was Monday's low.
09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more liquidation in block trade
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08:46 EDTJPMorgan global pharmaceuticals analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook:
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08:15 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
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08:00 EDTU.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1%
U.S. Retail Economist reported its chain store sales index dipped 0.1% in the week ended April 18. This follows solid gains in the prior 3 weeks, in part on Easter, and in part on warmer weather which helped boost apparel and outdoor goods sales. The annual pace slowed a bit to 3.3% y/y from 3.8% y/y, but is still one of the strongest gains of the year. The changing Easter date makes annual comps difficult.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading
Treasury Market Outlook: yields are a little lower in light trading. Overseas markets were mixed with JGB posting small gain while European sovereigns are mostly weaker. Global equities are in the green but have slipped from their highs. Greece remains a concern amid reports the ECB is thinking about reducing Greek bank support if reform progress is not forthcoming. In economic news, the German ZEW investor confidence for April disappointed, falling unexpectedly to 53.3 from 54.8 in March. The above factors weighed on EUR-USD which tumbled to 1.0660. In the U.S. today it's all about earnings with names like Yahoo!, Baker Hughes, Under Armour, Harley-Davidson, Verizon, Yum! Brands, Kimberly-Clark, and Zynga. The calendar otherwise contains only weekly chain store sales and a 4-week bill auction.
07:27 EDTWashington Association of Money Managers to hold a meeting
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07:26 EDTFutures suggest a follow through to yesterday’s rally
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07:22 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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07:19 EDTSenate Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Opportunities and Challenges for Agriculture Trade with Cuba" with Under Secretary Scuse of the U.S. Agriculture Dept., Senior Vice President Harris of Riceland Foods and Ralph Kaehler, Farmer and Owner of Kaehler Cattle Company on April 21 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:18 EDTFDIC to hold a board meeting
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07:17 EDTFCC Downloadable Security Technology Advisory Committee holds meeting
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07:13 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a webinar
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07:00 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD tumbled on news about the ECB
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 21
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02:45 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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01:55 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD has traded moderately lower
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April 20, 2015
17:09 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
17:09 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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17:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada Wholesale Trade Preview
Canada Wholesale Trade Preview: Analysts expect wholesale shipments, due Tuesday, to rise 0.5% in February (median -0.5%) after the 3.1% plunge in January. Forecast risk is all over the place given the bounce in retail shipments and plunge in manufacturing shipments during February. An as expected bounce would track expectations that the impact of the oil shock was front loaded in Q1. The 2.5% drop in February manufacturing shipments alongside the 1.3% gain in February retail sales informs our wholesale projection. Analysts are giving more weight to the retail sales gain given that the manufacturing drop was due to temporary factors in the vehicle production industry.
14:18 EDTMarket holding onto earlier gains
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14:00 EDTTreasury Action: long-end underperformance
Treasury Action: long-end underperformance has been the rule today, though the rising tide on stocks is lifting all boats along the curve. The 2-year yield has backed up from 0.5040% session lows to clear 0.5320%, the 5-year rose from 1.290% to 1.334%, while the 10-year bounced from 1.853% to probe 1.90% and the 30-year ramped up from 2.5090% lows to 2.569%. That saw the 2s-10s spread widen 2 basis points from +135 bp to +137 bp, while the 5s-30s spread stretched 1.5 basis points from +122 bp to +123.5 bp. Swings on stocks have been amplified by China as tighter margin and looser short-selling rules on Friday were contrasted by rate cuts today - setting up the "V" shaped move.
12:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s
Euro$ interest rate futures: a bulk purchase of June 2015s was spotted at 99.69 today to the tune of 60k with double that reportedly bid as well. Sources say that some 200k in June euro$s were sold from 99.645-99.595 back on March 19 (after last FOMC) and this may be short-covering on that trade. The June contract is a half-tick lower at 99.69 presently and the deferreds remain under pressure, some 0.5-5.0 ticks lower out the back.
12:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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12:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 119.35
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11:45 EDTTreasury's 3- and 6-month bill auctions were strong
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:05 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: put liquidations
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10:40 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility broke to lows of 13.14
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10:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to four-month highs
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10:05 EDTA Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment:
A Slight April Bounce for U.S. Sentiment: The downdraft for U.S. producer sentiment may have abated somewhat in April, given improvement in the component data for the Empire State and Philly Fed reports despite unimpressive headlines. On an ISM-adjusted basis, the Empire survey held steady in April while the Philly Fed posted a welcome bounce. Analysts expect ISM-adjusted average of all the major surveys to improve slightly to 51 in April, after a lean 50 average in March, though higher 52 averages in January and February and a 55 average as recently as November.
09:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved moderately higher
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09:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week
Fed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meets next week. Of course no policy action will be forthcoming. But the markets will be looking to the statement for additional clues on the timing of rate liftoff. With policymakers continuing to stress the data-dependency of rate action, as NY Fed's Dudley just did, there shouldn't be any firm indications on timing. The statement will note the slowdown in Q1, and the markets will try to get a sense of just how much temporary factors are to blame, including the stronger dollar, slow overseas growth, and spillover from energy price weakness. After the disappointing March jobs report, the Fed will repeat it needs to see further improvement, and it may tweak from the March statement that the underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. The outlook on inflation will be important, and the uptick in core CPI to a 1.8% y/y rate in March from 1.7% y/y could give the Fed some confidence that prices are moving toward the target. But that won't be sufficient to suggest any policy changes near term.
09:33 EDTChina's central bank helps U.S. stocks recoup some of Friday’s losses
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09:25 EDTMore from Dudley is not yet reasonably confident
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed early trade
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09:07 EDTUBS U.S. brokers, asset managers analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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08:50 EDTNY Fed dove Dudley said the rate hike is data-dependent
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities are on the mend
U.S. equities are on the mend following European stocks higher in the wake of the China rate cut, which left shares there unimpressed. While the Shanghai Comp fell 1.6%, the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.6% higher. That has left the Dow 105-points firmer, S&P up 10-points and NASDAQ up 17-points in pre-open action. Solid results for Morgan Stanley with a a 59% rise in profits thanks to M&A and trading revenues also helped buoy stocks after lifting MS 2.6%. Hasbro rallied 8.5% after demand for toys relating to movie tie-ins. On a bright note, former Senator, Goldman CEO and disgraced MF Global exec Jon Corzine is considering launching a hedge fund, according to the WSJ.
08:45 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to -0.42 in March
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to point to higher open
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08:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
Treasury Market Outlook: Yields backed up slightly from overnight lows after a weak start for equities in Asia was accompanied by a slash in Chinese RRR rates by a full percent. Despite obvious headwinds in Europe, shares rebounded there Bunds still retained a safe-haven bid and peripheral spreads narrowed. Treasury yields are up across the board, led by the long-end, with marginal curve steepening the result. The T-note yield snapped back from Asian lows of 1.855% to 1.885% before stalling again. With little on the docket today outside of the Chicago Fed national activity index, this week's focus will remain on the heavy earnings calendar which will overwhelm a thin slate of economic data, nothing today or Tuesday, and with little to speak of in terms of supply or Fed commentary. The week's data calendar has March existing home sales (Wednesday), new home sales and the flash Markit PMI (Thursday), and durable goods (Friday).
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied nearly $3/bbl
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:23 EDTEMC Corporation to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
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07:21 EDTNational Association of Theater Owners to hold a conference
CinemaCon 2015 is being held in Las Vegas on April 20-23.
07:15 EDTFood & Drug Law Institute to hold a conference
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07:14 EDTFutures higher on China central bank move
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06:52 EDTIMF official says Greece talks gained momentum, Reuters reports
Greece's negotiations with its lenders have gained some momentum but are still a long way from being completed, the International Monetary Fund's European head was quoted as saying by a German newspaper, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:49 EDTChina's central bank cuts reserve requirement, Reuters says
China's central bank yesterday reduced the reserve requirement ratio for the country's banks by one percentage point to 18.5%, effective today, the central bank announced, according to Reuters. Reference Link
06:13 EDTMay front month equity options last day to trade is May 15, 2015
05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 20
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05:40 EDTThe Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged
The Japanese government left its economic assessment unchanged in April's cabinet report. The report said that the economy continues to recover in a moderate growth trend, and notes that improvements are being seen in the corporate sector.
April 19, 2015
12:32 EDTChina cuts reserve requirement for commercial banks, WSJ says
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