U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 91.3 in the final November print U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 91.3 in the final November print from the University of Michigan survey, versus October's 90.0 (but it's a little softer than the preliminary 93.1 November read). The current conditions index paced the gain, improving to 104.3 versus the 102.3 in the prior month (104.8 November preliminary). The expectations component was little changed at 82.9 from 82.1 in October (85.6 preliminary November). The 1-year inflation index steady at 2.7%, the same as in October (but up from the 2.5% pace for the preliminary November), with the 5-year index at 2.6 from 2.5% for both October and the November preliminary.
The U.S. income report undershot estimates The U.S. income report undershot estimates with lean 0.1% October nominal and "real" consumption gains alongside an expected 0.4% income gain, following downward Q3 consumption revisions and big upward Q3 revisions for income as implied by the figures in yesterday's Q3 GDP report. The savings rate surged to a 5.6% two-year high after upwardly-revised rates back through April that suggest still elevated levels of consumer caution that has depressed the Q4 output, though analysts now have room for some spending catch-up into 2016. Our Q4 GDP growth estimate was lowered to 2.0% from 2.5% with a downwardly-revised 2.1% (was 3.0%) growth rate for "real" consumption. Analysts also now expect a downward bump in Q3 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.1% thanks to weak factory inventory data, hence leaving a mix of figures for the day that have depressed the growth outlook despite some firm headline figures for income and durable orders.