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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 23, 2015
14:29 EDTAverages drift in mid-afternoon trading
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14:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options update: bearish positioning was reported late in the session against the grain of earlier gains, perhaps setting up for Yellen testimony. This involved a 10k purchase of Short June 81/83/85/86 broken put condors. That said, deferred contracts are still up 1-8 ticks out the back end as stocks cool their heels and bonds recoup some of Friday's losses.
14:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD reacted to the earlier spike in oil
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14:10 EDTYellen Monetary Policy Report preview:
Yellen Monetary Policy Report preview: will she or won't she hint at a mid-year rate hike? Analysts expect she will split the difference, suggesting liftoff is in the cards, but not pre-committing ahead of the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. The Fed Chair will reiterate the Fed mantra that the path is data dependent. Assuming that's the case, analysts'll look for nuances on how she navigates the various crosscurrents that will determine the policy outlook. She will try to reconcile for the Congress the stronger labor market, the improved economy, and the pick up in spending with weak wages, soft inflation, and risks from overseas, but probably will not stray far from the FOMC minutes in doing so. She will likely say the Fed will be "patient" in removing stimulus especially since various conditions for tightening have yet to be met. She can also acknowledge the conflicting impacts of the stronger dollar. Her tone will be scrutinized to see if she is on the side of other Committee members who want to leave rates low for longer. "Audit the Fed" may also occupy a lot of the testimony.
14:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has rallied to $50.51
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13:15 EDTJanus' advisor Bill Gross just Tweeted:
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12:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in
U.S. corporate bond update: several issues are jumping in ahead of Yellen's testimony tomorrow, but generally it's a more wait-and-see mode. Kinder Morgan has a $750 M 31-year bond. Arrow Electronics has a $700 M 7-year deal. Daimler Finance has a benchmark 3-year FRN. Harley -Davidson is selling $500 M in 5-year notes. Coach announced a $400 M 10-year. Commonwealth Edison is selling $400 M in a 30-year FMB. There is not a lot of pressure on Treasuries today from the offerings, or from upcoming Treasury auctions thanks to weakness in equities, some correction from oversold conditions, expectations of solid month-end demand, and as many suspect Yellen will be less than hawkish tomorrow.
12:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady just under 119.00
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12:25 EDTU.S. equities are still trending sideways
U.S. equities are still trending sideways caught between lingering doubts about the Greece-inspired rally on Friday and the upcoming Fed Yellen semi-annual testimony. Fresh energy sector angst after NYMEX crude probed $48 bbl also managed to stifle last week's rally as well, leaving the blue chips in shallow negative territory, while NASDAQ retains a weak grip on the green. Among the top gainers in the Dow are UnitedHealth +3.1%, du Pont +0.7% and P&G + 0.7%, while deepest losses remain Boeing -2.4% (after Goldman "sell"), Intel -1.7% and JP Morgan -1.0%.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $52 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
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11:40 EDTGlobal X FTSE Greece 20 ETF volatility elevated after deal on bailout program
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF March call option implied volatility is at 77, April is at 73, June is at 64; compared to its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement following Greece's provisional deal on its bailout program.
11:35 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plunged to -11.2 in February from -4.4 in January, a 5 year low. Of course the weakness is not a surprise considering the region's exposure to the oil industry. Conditions outside the energy sector were generally upbeat.
11:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate option update: more bullish positioning
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:10 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are likely to dominate near term
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11:08 EDT4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
4-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $40.0 B
10:40 EDTThe 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop
The 4.9% U.S. existing home sales drop to a 4.82 M January clip left an ugly start for 2015, as did a 4.1% January median price drop to $199,600 that extended the late-2014 seasonal downswing from the $222,000 June cycle-high. Inventories posted an anemic 0.5% January bounce to a still-depressed 1.87 M level that marks a 0.5% y/y drop. Existing home sales have entered 2015 at an anemic pace and inventories remain depressed, while prices continue to post a modest cyclical climb but with gains seasonally concentrated into Q2 of each year. Analysts now have cyclical gains of just 40% for existing home sales and 32% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 72% for new home sales, 123% for housing starts, and 105% for permits. Harsh weather may hold back sales in February and March, as this gauge tracks closings and may show a delayed response to January and February storms. Weather likely had little to do with January weakness, as sales declines extended across the four regions, and the biggest drop was a 7.1% decline in the West where weather was normal.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to slide lower
Treasury Action: yields continued to slide lower with the opening declines in stocks and the weak print on existing home sales, which have caught the markets offsides. Considering that mortgage rates fell to trend lows again in January, there must be some winter freeze effects in the data that are offsetting the near historic low rates. The T-note yield probed just below 2.07% compared to highs in Asia of 2.136% and 2.141% on Friday after the Greek deal, with lower highs suggesting downward momentum building and putting Friday lows of 2.045% within reach. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +146 bp.
10:15 EDTU.S. existing home sales dropped 4.9% in January to a 4.82 M rate
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10:00 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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