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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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January 30, 2015
15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: It was a Rukeyserian up-and-down day on Wall Street Friday, led first by a disappointing start to Q4 GDP followed by a vicious short-covering rally on crude oil into the close. Yes, there were other events such as a deflationary 0.6% drop in Eurozone inflation, relatively steady U.S. ECI, firmer Chicago PMI and minor revisions to U. Michigan sentiment, but commodity deflation has been the yardstick by which fortunes have been made or broken. Longer-term yields hit fresh cycle or historic lows (in the case of the bond) before bubbling back up from lows with the energy market. Fed dove Bullard stuck with his view of a June-July rate hike and enthused about growth, as did dove Williams despite the sluggish GDP reading.
14:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has responded to the 8% run-up in WTI crude
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14:35 EDTSF Fed's Williams is not concerned by the slowdown in Q4 GDP
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14:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has mounted a nice end of week rally
Energy Action: NYMEX crude has mounted a nice end of week rally, rising over 6% to highs of $47.65, marking the heist levels in over a week. Sources say pre-weekend short covering has been widespread, with ISIS threats to oil infrastructure near Kirkuk in Northern Iraq being cited as the main driver. In addition, the move over Tuesday's $46.54 high reportedly set stop loss buying into motion.
14:16 EDTMarket volatility shows no sign of slowing
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14:00 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: surprise, surprise, surprise! Gomer Pyle's catchphrase pretty much sums up the month of January. First it was the SNB dumping its EUR peg. Then it was the BoC's rate cut. And now it's the FOMC's specific inclusion of international developments as a policy parameter, as well as disappointing GDP (with several other shockers in-between). Not surprisingly this month's unexpected events and what they might mean for global growth and inflation dynamics are worrying investors, especially in light of earnings misses from several bellwethers multinationals. And one more "surprise" too in the Survey. Fed forecasts are finally extending out to mid-2015 and the potential rate hike threshold, and indeed, a couple of forecasters are looking for the FOMC to pull the trigger at the end of Q2. There's key data ahead too, with the Median estimate showing a 230k increase in January nonfarm payrolls.
13:43 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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13:43 EDTImport Prices data reported.
January Import Prices at % for the month.
13:21 EDTChicago Economic Society to hold a meeting
St.Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks on the Federal Reserve Bank policy at the Chicago Economics Society meeting being held in New York on January 30 at 6:30 pm.
12:35 EDTTreasury/euro$s option update: a large put buyer
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12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY held above its nearly two week low
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12:25 EDTU.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener
U.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener has taken control yet again after the back up in yields into year-end ran smack into the launch of ECB QE in January and snuffed out bearish positioning for the "Great Unwind" for the second year running. Combined with pull lower from European yields, plunge in commodities, macro bet unwinds and duration extensions, powerful forces brought the T-note yield down from 2.35% highs in December to a low of 1.65% - not seen since May of 2013. Frankly, below the 1.50% psych level that puts 1.28% July 2012 post-crisis lows in the cross-hairs if trends continue apace. Of course, if optimism or wage inflation suddenly breaks out stateside, retracements to the 14-day moving average at 1.814% cannot be ruled out, while the 200-day m.a. at 2.388% seems a stretch for now.
12:20 EDTU.S. 10-year technicals: The global deflation bull flattener
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11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen through 1.2700
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11:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed positioning
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10:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports were dominated by a surprisingly lean headline Q4 GDP growth clip of 2.6% that included a skewing of growth toward a disturbingly large inventory overbuild that lowers growth prospects for early-2015. Analysts did see a January Chicago PMI climb to a firm 59.4 reading, though factory sentiment firmness since July has likely been fed by the inventory overbuild that will prove temporary, and most factory sector gauges have fallen in January. The Q4 ECI report added to the bad news, with a third consecutive quarter of 0.6%-0.7% gains that signal a tightening labor market that is potentially at odds with Fed "patience," despite oil price declines. Finally, analysts saw a tiny downward revision in January Michigan sentiment that bucked the up-trend in late-January confidence measures, though all the January confidence readings are at high levels due no doubt to plunging gasoline prices. Overall,
10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: some call liquidation
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10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb
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10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied slightly
FX Action: The dollar rallied slightly after the better Chicago PMI and in-line Michigan sentiment data, taking EUR-USD to 1.1299 lows and lifting USD-JPY over 117.70. Gains are tentative however, with another downdraft in stocks likely to limit USD upside potential. Equities have pared their losses considerably after the data, as yields stay near record lows.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: and back down again, yields sank
Treasury Action: and back down again, yields sank following the final U. Michigan reading, which was above concensus and December levels, but below its preliminary reading. The T-note yield eased back under 1.68% from over 1.69% following the Chicago ISM reading. The curve remains flat with the 2s-10s spread inside +120 bp narrows now.
<< 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >>

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