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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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April 16, 2014
16:37 EDTApril Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
16:37 EDTWeek of 4/25 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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15:30 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Focus shifted back to the U.S. and away from the Ukraine on Weds, as Fed Chair Yellen stepped to the podium again to explain in some greater detail why she's still cautious about the slack in the labor market. That helped U.S. assets maintain a slight edge, with stocks underpinned, yields off highs and the yen holding its weaker profile. There was plenty of other Fedspeak to boot, while the Fed Beige Book report saw some improvement in the economy after spring finally arrived. Data was again mixed, as housing starts remained relatively subdued in March, while industrial production and capacity use shot up.
15:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI, due Thursday, to expand at a annual rate of 1.4% in March after the 1.1% rate in February. The acceleration is due to the return of a more "normal" comparison with the year ago month following the easy comparison with an elevated February of 2013. CPI is seen rising 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.8% m/m surge in February. The BoC's core CPI index is seen rising 0.3% m/m in March, in-line with the gains seen in past months of March. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 1.3% y/y pace in March, a slight pick-up from the 1.2% rate in February. The BoC boosted its forecasts for total CPI, with the measure now seen at 2.0% by Q1 of 2015. But the coming pick-up is due to transitory effects, namely energy prices. Hence, core inflation growth is seen remaining low this year amid ample spare capacity and retail competition, keeping the Bank's policy guidance firmly in neutral alongside a dovish focus on downside risks to underlying inflation.
15:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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14:55 EDTTreasury Action: trading has been quiet and should remain
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields tapered slightly lower
Treasury Action: yields tapered slightly lower with stocks following Yellen's speech, while the Beige Book report was generally a bit more upbeat on multiple counts thanks in part to the thawing in the weather. Hawk Fisher continues to jawbone on the risk of inflation as well, along with fiscal headwinds and some improvement in the weather. The T-note yield again held below 2.66% highs this week and has retreated to the 2.64% area again, while still some distance from the Ukraine-motivated breach of 2.60% yesterday. The curve is flatter, with 2s-10s +227 bp and 5s-30s at +181 bp.
14:18 EDTAverages remain higher following Beige Book
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14:15 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30
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14:15 EDT Employment Cost Index to be released at 08:30
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14:15 EDTApril ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book reported activity increased in most regions
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14:13 EDTFed says economic activity rebounded, most sectors strengthened
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14:05 EDTBeige book says manufacturing better in most districts, housing markets varied
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14:04 EDTFed says consumer spending increased in most Districts
In its latest Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve said consumer spending increased in most Districts, as weather conditions improved and foot traffic returned. The transportation sector generally strengthened in recent weeks, with higher port volumes and increased trucking. Even in districts where transportation was soft, the outlook was optimistic.
14:03 EDTBeige book suggests economic activity increased in most regions
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13:45 EDTFed Beige Book preview:
Fed Beige Book preview: the anecdotal report of regional activity across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (March through early April) should reflect some bounce back from the weather depressed conditions from earlier in the year. But it shouldn't reveal any big surprises given the boilerplate nature of the report and the gradual nature of growth. The general characterization of growth has been "modest to moderate" for some time now, and analysts don't look for that to change. The March report said the general outlook was "optimistic" and that should hold too. There should be a pick up in sales and manufacturing after the hit from weather. Housing probably improved, albeit only modestly, and commercial real estate likely expanded further. Employment should have improved as well, with ongoing shortages of skilled workers. Wages and prices probably remained relatively steady.
13:45 EDTAnd now Fed hawk Fisher: moving in the right direction
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13:35 EDTYellen takeaways: her comments revealed her dovish leaning
Yellen takeaways: her comments revealed her dovish leaning, with no hint of a time-frame to rate hikes as she continues to back away from that rookie fumble in the March 19 presser. The Fed chair is still very concerned about the sluggish recovery and the slack in the labor market, and stressed that price pressures are more likely to remain low than to accelerate. It looks as though rates are going to remain low for quite some time, perhaps into 2016. Stocks have extended gains on her comments, which have in turn nudged yields a little higher. However, yields remain below where they printed following the March 19 FOMC press conference.
13:30 EDTYellen Q&A: a wide variety of indicators
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13:25 EDTMore from Yellen:
More from Yellen: the Fed is mindful of the spillover effects as accommodation is removed. But she noted the timing of policy moves and challenges of policy are different for different countries. Europe is returning to growth at a modest pace, but is more challenged by its banking sector problems. Like Bernanke before her, she didn't really take any responsibility for the problems faced by other economies to the Fed's actions (remember Bernanke just got into a war of words with RBI chief Rajan on this issue).
13:20 EDTYellen Q&A: labor market has been perplexing with respect to historical norms
Yellen Q&A: labor market has been perplexing with respect to historical norms. In answering what role the Fed can play, she said the FOMC's accommodative policy stance has been the most effective. In the public sector, more training will be helpful. Answering a question on whether the Fed would be willing to raise the funds rate above the inflation rate, she responded of course the Fed will be "very focused" on removing accommodation when the time comes (that's going to be a judgment call).
12:45 EDTTreasury Action: Yellen was largely as dovish as advertised
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been steady
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12:40 EDTFed Chair Yellen reiterated the guidance change wasn't a policy change
Fed Chair Yellen reiterated the guidance change wasn't a policy change in her speech on Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery, adding the Fed is committed to accommodation. The Fed's new guidance relies on a wide range of factors, but rates will stay low for a longer time if jobs and inflation miss their targets. The recovery has come a long way though is still far from maximum employment and wage gains are still proceeding at an historically slow pace. It's plausible the Fed hits its goals by the end of 2016 she noted. She's also more concerned over low inflation than a substantial rise above the 2% mark. While this speech didn't have quite the political tone of her prior comments, the remarks here show her to be still firmly on the dovish side.
12:30 EDTYellen discusses 'continuing commitment' to accommodation
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York, "In other words, the larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from their respective objectives, and the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained. This approach underscores the continuing commitment of the FOMC to maintain the appropriate degree of accommodation to support the recovery. The new guidance also reaffirms the FOMC's view that decisions about liftoff should not be based on any one indicator, but that it will take into account a wide range of information on the labor market, inflation, and financial developments."Reference Link
12:25 EDTWeek of 4/25 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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12:25 EDTU.S. assets are turning higher into Yellen's speech
U.S. assets are turning higher into Yellen's speech with some speculation that she'll reiterate her dovish themes on the ongoing shortfall on the jobs and inflation fronts. The T-note yield has edged lower from 2.66% to the 2.64% area, while the NASDAQ is over 1% higher now and dollar-yen is having a look at 102.36 session highs again.
11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds
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11:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some smaller bearish trades
Euro$ interest rate options: some smaller bearish trades have been reported in an otherwise pretty quiet session so far in terms of flows. These included the purchase of 2k in Green Dec 72/77 put spreads vs the sale of an 82 call, and a purchase of 5k in Green Jul 75/76/78 broken put butterflies. Jun 2014s are flat near 99.77, while the deferreds are up to 4-ticks lower out the strip.
10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds. The small buyback won't offset much of the losses in Treasuries where the long bond yield is up over 2 bps to 3.48%.
10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of April 11
Crude oil inventories 10.0M build vs. consensus of 1.75M build. Gasoline inventories 154K draw vs. consensus of 1.75M draw. Distillates 1.28M draw vs. consensus of flat.
10:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell to 1.0960
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09:55 EDTMarket opens sharply higher as earnings season picks up
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09:55 EDTThe surprising 0.7% U.S. March industrial production rise
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09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated near highs
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09:25 EDTU.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March
U.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March from February's 1.9% gain to 920k (revised up from 907k). This is a second month of increase (4.7% cumulative) after declines 11.8% in January and 7.0% in December. Single family starts rose 6.0%, with multi-family falling 3.1%. Building permits fell 2.4% to 990k from a revised 1014k (was 1014k). Data are a little light compared to expectations.
09:25 EDTThe anemic U.S. housing starts bounce
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar traded higher
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09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in March with capacity utilization at 79.2%
U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in March with capacity utilization at 79.2% (the highest since June 2008). The 0.6% February increase in production was revised higher to 1.2%, with January's -0.1% revised to -0.2%. Capacity utilization was bumped up to 78.8% in February from 78.4% previously. Manufacturing production rose 0.5% last month versus a 1.4% February rebound (was 0.9%). Motor vehicle and parts production fell 0.8%. Machinery production slid 0.3%. Computer and electronic production was up 1.0%. Utilities rebounded 1.0% after a revised 0.3% February drop (was -0.2%). Mining rose 1.5%. Data are much better than expected and are likely to pressure Treasury yields higher.
09:17 EDTIndustrial Production Manufacturing data reported
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09:17 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate data reported
March Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate at 79.2% vs. consensus of 78.7%
09:17 EDTIndustrial Production data reported
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09:15 EDTU.S. equities have extended gains
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09:05 EDTU.S. housing starts rose 2.8% to a 946k pace in March
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09:00 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: March industrial production is expected to be up 0.4% (median 0.2%) following the 0.6% bounce in February. There is some upside risk to the report from the stronger hours worked data that was released in the March employment report.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped slightly
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08:37 EDTFutures remain higher following housing data
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08:35 EDTAtlanta Fed dove Lockhart said economic data still supports
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08:31 EDTHousing Starts Permits data reported
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08:31 EDTHousing Starts data reported
March Housing Starts at 0.946M vs. consensus of 0.965M
08:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD firmed up
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08:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:15 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied
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07:50 EDTFed Chair Yellin will discuss monetary policy
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Better China GDP data helped risk appetite overnight, allowing USD-JPY to finally break over 102.00. EUR-USD edged higher as well, helped mainly by a surge in cable, which traded over 1.6800 following forecast-beating U.K. employment data. USD-CAD traded briefly over 1.1000 into this morning's BoC policy announcement, though has since returned to 1.0990. The U.S. calendar reveals March housing starts at 8:30 EDT, followed by March industrial production at 9:15 EDT. Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data is due at 10:30 EDT, while the Beige Book for the April 29-30 FOMC meeting is due at 14:00 EDT.
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose to 4.3%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose to 4.3% in data released earlier, on top of a 1.3% gain in the purchase index and a 6.9% bounce in the refinancing index for the week ended Apr-11. The better overall tone in the mortgage market was fed by a 9 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to an average 4.47%, which didn't hurt after the FOMC minutes last week leaned to the dovish side, amid stock market weakness and escalation in the Ukraine that provided a powerful tonic for the bond market. The overhang of past winter weather effects, however, has crimped some housing stats into 2014, though analysts see some bounce-back ahead this spring. For more detail on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped slightly lower
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07:24 EDTCFA Society of Cleveland to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:22 EDTDallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher is keynote speaker
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07:21 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at the Economic Club of New York
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07:17 EDTJeremy Stein, member of the Fed Reserve System to speak at conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
Week of 4/11 MBA Purchase Applications Index up 1.0% for the week
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:53 EDTChina GDP growth exceeds expectations, South China Morning Post says
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 16
Globex S&P futures are recently up 9.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 3.1%, DAX up 0.80%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $104.65, natural gas down 0.59%, gold at $1299 an ounce, and copper down 1.62%.
05:49 EDT April front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
04:40 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD has ticked higher
FX Action: EUR-USD has ticked higher to a peak of 1.3846 so far, meeting some selling interest into 1.3850. The move cleared yesterday's high and has swung Monday's 1.3863 peak back into scope. Final March inflation data is due out of the Eurozone shortly, though this should be confirmed at 0.5% y/y, which in the event won't a market mover. The market will be looking to today's U.S. slate for leads, which has dollar-moving potential as analysts have a speech by Fed boss Yellen, the Fed's Beige Book report, and production and housing data. (Yellen is in fact speaking before the Economic Club of New York, which has in the past been a venue for policy insights from other Fed chiefs).
02:20 EDTFX Update
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April 15, 2014
15:53 EDTApril Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00
15:53 EDTApril State Street Investor Confidence Index to be released at 10:00
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15:53 EDTWeek of 4/26 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:53 EDTWeek of 4/26 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
15:40 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Safety first, remorse later. Treasuries rallied hard after skirmishing in Eastern Ukraine escalated amid reports of reprisals in the air and land as Kiev sought to wrestle back its Kramatorsk airfield from separatists. Ukraine "special forces" stepped in and this reportedly resulted in casualties and prompted outcry from both West and East. Initial market reaction saw stocks, yields and dollar-yen dive for cover, but talk about a Nikkei report of an economic downgrade for Japan in April partly unwound the aversion trade late. Yellen gave a technical speech on funding measures, while data continued to provide mixed signals as well.
14:30 EDTFed Board discount rate meeting Minutes
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14:15 EDTShort-covering on equities
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13:52 EDTAverages lower as Nasdaq lags
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13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY found buyers into 101.50
FX Action: USD-JPY found buyers into 101.50, reportedly Japanese backed, and has since rallied back over 101.75 in concert with Wall Street's paring of its sharp earlier losses. Depending how much more stocks can rally back, the 102.00 level may yet again come into focus into the close. Buy stops from 102.10 could be getting large.
13:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade
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12:20 EDTTreasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong
Treasury's $25 B 4-week bill sale was strong amid increased risk aversion with Ukraine tensions and Wall Street anxieties. The bill priced at 0.025%, inside the 0.035% at the bid deadline. There were nearly $124.8 B in bids for 5.00 cover, a little better than last week's 4.98 and the 4.76 average. Indirect bidders took 26.2%, in line with the better than 20% over the past three auctions, but the most since February 19.
12:10 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a $3 B Wal-Mart multi-trancher
U.S. corporate debt: a $3 B Wal-Mart multi-trancher will include 5-, 10- and 30-year legs (ranging from +25 to +95 bps over), while there are a couple of smaller deals afoot as well such as OCP S.A. 10-year on Weds. In high yield, MIE Holdings is prepping a 5-year and Rice Energy has a $750 M 8-year on Thurs. Not much supply to get worked up about here other than the Wal-Mart deal that could add to the mix on underlying Treasuries, which remain well-bid thanks to Vlad.
12:10 EDTFebruary TIC Data show "Risk-On" Trade:
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12:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: hefty downside positioning
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11:38 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility up on escalation of Ukraine unrest
Market-Vector Russia ETF Trust April call option implied volatility of 42, May is at 34, August is at 30, November is at 29; compared to its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
10:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY again failed at 102.00
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase:
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to muddle under highs
Treasury Action: yields continue to muddle under highs as stocks get the sniffles again following more alarming headlines out of the Ukraine now, along with the disappointing miss on NAHB HMI. USD-JPY had been getting a little rampy as well, but was just denied a test of 102.00 and sent packing to 101.80 again. The T-note yield has been struggling to decisively clear 2.66% and has since rotated back below 2.65%. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +226 bp.
10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index edged up to 47 in April
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10:00 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
April Housing Market Index at 47 vs. consensus of 49
09:47 EDTCoke, J&J earnings help lift market in early trading
Stock futures were steady and mildly positive during the pre-market trading session, leading to a higher open for the broader market despite higher than expected consumer prices data and a lower than expected Empire manufacturing report. Better than expected earnings from corporate giants Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) have helped lift the Dow and the other major averages in the early going. About 15 minutes after the opening bell, the Dow is up 79 points, the Nasdaq is up 27 points and the S&P is up 11 points.
09:30 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD trades to 1.1010 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD trades to 1.1010 highs, making six-session highs in the progress. Slightly wide U.S./Canada yield differentials have likely been a factor in the CAD's softening this morning, while stops at 1.1000 helped USD-CAD higher as well. The next upside target will be the April 4 peak of 1.1042.
09:25 EDTThe 0.2% U.S. CPI March headline and core price increases
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09:20 EDTU.S. equities shed some of their gains
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09:15 EDTCapital flows showed foreigners bought $167.7 B in U.S. assets in Feb
Capital flows showed foreigners bought $167.7 B in U.S. assets in Feb after buying $87.0 B in January (revised from $83.0 B). Overseas accounts purchased $85.7 B in net long term assets versus $7.7 B in January (revised from $7.3 B). Demand for Treasuries rebounded as accounts bought $92.4 B in coupons (after selling $584 M in January), and sold $882 M in equities, $75 M in agencies, and $6.7 B in corporate bonds. Belgium was the biggest buyer of Treasury notes and bonds at $30.9 B, followed by the U.K. ($12.3 B) and Japan ($9.1 B). Switzerland was the biggest seller of Treasuries at $7.3 B, followed by Russia (-$5.6 B) and Oil Exporters (-$2.7 B), China (-$2.7 B), and France (-$2.7 B).
09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made a feeble attempt
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09:10 EDTU.S. TIC flows preview:
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09:00 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
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09:00 EDTThe April Empire State headline drop to 1.29
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen didn't discuss monetary policy or the economy
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields got caught in the crossfire
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed up slightly
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08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index slid to 1.3 in April
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index slid to 1.3 in April after rebounding to 5.6 in March, weaker than expected. The index hit a recent high of 12.5 in January which was the best since May 2012. The components were mixed. Employment improved to 8.2 from 5.9. The workweek dipped to 2.0 from 4.7. New orders dropped to -2.8 from 3.1. Prices paid edged up to 22.5 from 21.2. Prices received climbed to 10.2 from 2.4. The 6-month outlook index rose to 38.2 from 33.2, with the future employment index at 22.5 from 17.7 and capital expenditures at 23.5 from 16.5.
08:43 EDTBoston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren to speak at Husson University
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08:40 EDTU.S. March CPI edged up 0.2% with the core rate up 0.2% as well
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08:34 EDTFutures remain higher following economic data
Stock futures remain higher following the release of the consumer prices report and the Empire Manufacturing report. The CPI data showed that consumer prices rose 0.2% overall versus the expected increase of 0.1% while the core reading, which removes food and energy, was also up 0.2% versus the expected increase of 0.1%. The Empire Manufacturing Index for April came in at 1.29 versus expectations of a reading of 8.00.
08:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy data reported
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08:31 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI data reported
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08:31 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
April Empire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index at 1.29 vs. consensus of 7.50
08:30 EDTFed Chair Yellen will appear in a pre-recorded video
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08:20 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:20 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview: The first of the April producer sentiment measures will be released in the form of the Empire State index. Analysts expect the headline to improve to 8.0 (median 8.0) after a gain to 5.6 in March. Broadly analysts expect producer sentiment to continue to rebound from the dip analysts saw in February of this year.
08:10 EDTU.S. ICSC chain store sales slipped 0.3% in the week ended April 12
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 82 cents/bbl
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07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:45 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to fractionally lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to fractionally lower with the 10-year yield having inched up to 2.65% versus 2.635% in Asian action. Trading volume was light. Global bonds are mostly higher, paced by the European periphery. Equities are mixed, having traded narrowly unchanged levels. There was plenty of overnight news and mostly disappointing. Chinese money supply and loan data was a little weaker than expected. German ZEW also fell short of forecasts, while U.K. BRC retail sales slowed. Ukraine remains tense. Those factors have weighed on stocks. In the U.S. the calendar remains crowded with March CPI, April Empire State, February TIC capital flows, and the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index on tap. There is Fedspeak from Chair Yellen who will give opening remarks (via video) at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference. There's also Fedspeak from the hawkish Plosser, and doves Rosengren and Kocherlakota. The NY Fed will buy $1.75 B to $2.25 B in notes maturing from January 2020 through March 31, 2021. Earnings news comes from Yahoo!, J&J, Coca-Cola, Intel, CSX, along with more mid-tier financials.
07:39 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:38 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen provides opening remarks at conference
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: EUR-USD made its way briefly to near 1.3790 in London trade, as USD-JPY was supported over 101.70, though still unable to crack the 102.00 level. USD-CAD meanwhile, touched 1.1000 highs, Overall, trade was light. The U.S. calendar will reveal March CPI and the April N.Y. Fed index, both at 8:30 EDT. followed by February TIC flow data at 9:00 EDT. The April NAHB housing market index is due at 10:00 EDT. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, while Treasury yields are little changed.
07:29 EDTGlobal Pacific & Partners to hold a conference
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07:27 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Australian Emerging Companies Conference is being held in Melbourne, Australia on April 15-16.
07:21 EDTFutures suggest market will extend advance
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07:05 EDTFX Update
FX Update: EUR-USD managed to edge out a fresh six-day low of 1.3790 in a move triggered by a sub-expectations German ZEW sentiment outcome, though this was offset by forecast-beating trade figures and the euro settled back on the north side of 1.3800. Elsewhere, sterling quickly recovered from a post-CPI dive, with Cable returning to levels around 1.6730 after a brief dive to 1.6708. A new cycle low of 1.6% y/y in U.K. CPI hadn't been entirely expected. However, Cable ran into a cluster of good buy orders ahead of 1.6700, and there are also expectations for a solid labour market report tomorrow, which should see unemployment dip back to 7.1% and confirm the first positive rate in real average household incomes. AUD settled moderately lower following the release of the RBA minutes to the April policy review, which noted that the AUD was still high by historical standards and that the exchange rate will be less supportive of the economy than before, although the overall tone was quite positive and said that interest rates would remain steady for a prolonged period. Some commentaries also attributed the Aussie's softening to a liquidity draining operation in China today, in addition to China's credit report. AUD-USD dipped to 0.9385 from the 0.9420 area, but remained above yesterday's 0.9376 low.
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 15
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April 14, 2014
17:12 EDTMarch Pending Home Sales Index to be released at 10:00
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15:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Preview
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15:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: The March overall-CPI is expected to rise 0.3% (median 0.1%), while the core index rises 0.1% (median 0.1%). Analysts've seen a strong round of March inflationary data thus far, as trade prices rose a surprising 0.8% for exports and 0.6% for import prices, alongside a 0.5% PPI headline rise with a 0.6% core surge.
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A spring thaw on retail sales and better than expected topline earnings on Citi initially bought some time for Wall Street, but the trap door of risk opened back up and and this capped stocks and yields over the course of the Monday session. More dovish jawboning from the ECB helped keep a lid on the euro, along with brighter U.S. data and rising tensions over Russia's creeping annexation of Eastern Ukraine. Option activity from shorter euro$s to longer-bond futures was mostly played from the bearish side, though fairly mixed overall.
14:50 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Canada Manufacturing Preview: Analysts expect manufacturing shipments, due Tuesday, to rise 1.0% in February (median same). There is some downside risk to our estimate, as weather was still harsh in February, especially in the U.S. (which is the destination for many of Canada's manufactured goods). But industrial production in the U.S. improved in February. And the 3.6% surge in February exports is supportive of our manufacturing projection. This is the first industry level report that informs the outlook of February GDP. A solid gain would be suggestive of continued expansion in Canada's economy after the 0.5% rebound in January GDP. Analysts expect a 0.2% rise in February GDP.
14:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: hefty put positioning
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14:01 EDTAverages higher but off best levels
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14:00 EDTU.S. equities are attempting to hold gains
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13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: a mixed bag on 5-year positioning
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12:40 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: offerings are light
U.S. corporate bond update: offerings are light to begin the holiday abbreviated period after the $25 B sold last week was the most in four weeks. Bank of East Asia has a $750 M 3-year, looking to price at +165 bps. Kimco Realty is offering $500 M in 7-year notes (just upped from $350 M) at +105 bps. There is a benchmark 3- and 5-year deal from KT Corp, with guidance at +105 bps and +115 bps, respectively.
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly defensive positioning
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11:55 EDTTreasury's $48 B bill auction was well sponsored
Treasury's $48 B bill auction was well sponsored, though results weren't quite as strong as recent prior stats. The $25 B 3-month bill stopped at 0.035%, right on the screws, and slightly cheaper than last week's 0.03%. Bids totaled $114.3 B for a 4.59 cover, down from last week's 4.88 and but fractionally better than the 4.51 average. Indirect bidders took 19.5%, better than the prior 16.2% and the 18.9% average. The $23 B 6-month bill was awarded at 0.05%, a little richer than the 0.055% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled $113.1 B for a 4.96 cover, below the prior 5.35 cover and the 4.74 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 35.6%, down from 42.7% previously, but a little better than the 33.2% average.
11:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are lower as stocks re-rebound and the firmer retail sales print earlier leaves a mark on the short-dated rate contracts. There will be some Fedspeak from Governor Tarullo later, but this will be on big bank regulation and shouldn't stray into the monetary policy sphere, unless some tape bomb crops up in Q&A. The front Jun 2014 contract is flat near 99.77, but the deferreds are 1-6 ticks lower further out the curve.
11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was again pushed back
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD tripped stops at 1.0950
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.018 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through February 15, 2044. The Street offered $4.797 B. Yields continue to drift higher, though the long end's losses are minimal. The 30-year is essentially flat at 3.488%.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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11:00 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields found traction again
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10:40 EDTThe restrained 0.4% February U.S. business inventories
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields continue to settle lower
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in February
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10:00 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
February Business Inventories up 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
09:55 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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09:50 EDTRetail sales propel market higher at start of short week
Stock futures improved during pre-market trading following the better than expected retail sales data. The futures action led to a sharply higher open for the broader market. The averages are being led by the financials thanks in large part to stronger than expected report from Citigroup (C). The major averages have pared some of their gains in the early going, but remain up about 0.5%. The Dow is up 71 points, the Nasdaq is up 20 points and the S&P is up 9 points about 20 minutes into trading.
09:50 EDTFedspeak resumes with moderate governor Tarullo
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09:30 EDTThe 1.1% March retail sales headline gain
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09:26 EDTJPMorgan's medical supplies analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has given back
FX Action: USD-CAD has given back post-U.S. retail sales gains, stalling at 1.0990, and easing back into 1.0965. As was the case in Asia, solid offers into the 1.1000 level capped gains, and with risk appetite firmed up this morning, CAD buyers have returned. Support is seen into 1.0960, with stops now noted at 1.0950.
09:10 EDTThe Mother of All Bubbles?
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08:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 7 cents/bbl at $103.81 in early N.Y. trade, bouncing in the aftermath of the better U.S. retail sales report. Bigger picture, ramped up tensions in the Ukraine, have largely offset added supply from Libya, though the oil market will look to China for directional guidance tomorrow, when Q1 GDP data will be released.
08:45 EDTU.S. retail sales climbed 1.1% in March, and rose 0.7% excluding autos
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed up
FX Action: The dollar firmed up after the better retail sales outcome, taking EUR-USD to session lows of 1.3813, and USD-JPY intra day highs just over 102.00. Equity futures are on session highs, as are Treasury yields.
08:35 EDTFutures move higher following retail sales report
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales Less Autos & Gas data reported
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales less autos data reported
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08:32 EDTRetail Sales data reported
March Retail Sales up 1.1% vs. consensus of 1.0% for the month
08:24 EDTCantor's REITs analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:10 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
U.S. retail sales preview: Retail sales are expected to grow 0.8% in March, while the ex-auto aggregate grows by 0.6%. Forecast risk is upward, as analysts expect a rebound from prior depressed readings thanks to winter storms, etc.. preview for more.
07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTMarket will look to get back to winning ways
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07:09 EDTFDA to hold a public workshop
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 14
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.36%, DAX down 0.98%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $104.10, natural gas down 0.02%, gold at $1324 an ounce, and copper up 0.21%.
05:46 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
04:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is consolidating in the mid 101s
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April 13, 2014
19:13 EDTUkraine mobilizing military for antiterrorist operation, WSJ says
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15:46 EDTGlencore Xstrata to sell Las Bambas stake for approximately $5.85B
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09:24 EDTIndustrial Production Manufacturing to be reported at 09:15
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09:24 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
March Consumer Price Index CPI will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
09:24 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
March Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 78.7%
09:24 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTRetail Sales Less Autos & Gas to be reported at 08:30
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09:24 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
March Retail Sales less autos will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.5% for the month
April 11, 2014
16:35 EDTApril Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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15:40 EDTEarnings Reports: a heavy line up of announcements are ahead
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:10 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: illiquidity will complicate trading with Good Friday
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13:50 EDTAverages remain under pressure
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13:45 EDTFed Chair Yellen will make a couple of appearances next week
Fed Chair Yellen will make a couple of appearances next week, first on Tuesday in a pre-recorded video for the opening of the 2014 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed from 8:45 ET. Then she'll speak again on Wednesday on monetary policy and the economic recovery before the Economics Club of NY from 12:25 ET. Other Fedspeakers include governor Stein on Sunday before the IMF, while governor Tarullo takes part in a regulation panel Monday. Atlanta's Lockhart introduces his branch's conference Tuesday, along with participation by Philly hawk Plosser. Boston Fed dove Rosengren speaks from Maine on the economic outlook, while Minneapolis Fed dove Kocherlakota takes Q&A in Fargo. On Wednesday, Lockhart and Stein make additional appearances in Atlanta and Dallas Fed hawk Fisher wraps up with a speech on the outlook from Austin.
13:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: better put activity
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12:45 EDTTreasury Dealer meeting agenda for Apr 24, 25:
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11:45 EDTNASDAQ broke into positive territory
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11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $2.29 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.29 B in notes raging in maturity from May 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered $9.675 B. Treasury gains are eroding as stocks rebound. But the 10-year yield is still about 2 bps lower on the day at 2.627%. Next week the Desk will intervene on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, to purchase between $3.55 B to $4.55 B. The markets will be closed on Good Friday.
10:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish put positioning
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes dated from May 2021 through February 2024. The buyback is supportive for Treasuries, though earlier gains have been pared slightly. The 10-year sector is pacing the rally this moring with the yield down nearly 3 bps to 2.62%.
10:20 EDTThe April Michigan sentiment bounce to 82.6
The April Michigan sentiment bounce to 82.6 more than reversed the March drop to 80.0 from 81.6 in February, as the measure narrowed the gap to the 85.1 cycle-high from last July. Michigan sentiment has enjoyed a recent lift from diminishing weather disruptions, rising stock prices before the most recent drop, and a recovering housing market beyond the winter's big weather-related setbacks. Confidence still faces a headwind from Obamacare, and lingering concerns after last year's mortgage rate spike. Despite today's rise, Michigan sentiment continues to underperform consumption and payrolls. Analysts assume an upward adjustment in today's April reading to the 83 area, given upward revisions in all three months of 2014 of 0.1 in March, 0.4 in February and 0.8 in January, and a 1.8 average monthly boost in 2013. Analysts've seen divergent moves in available April confidence indicators, as they fluctuate around their mid-2013 levels. Analysts expect Consumer confidence to slip to 82.0 from a cycle-high 82.3 in March, versus a slightly lower 82.1 prior cycle-high last June.
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment jumped to 82.6 in the preliminary April read
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Treasury Action: yields backed up from lows on the rebound in U. Michigan sentiment in Apr, as the worst of the winter storm sentiment damage appeared to clear. That gave stocks a leg back up from opening lows and goose the dollar a tad. The T-note yield recovered above 2.62% compared to 5-week lows under 2.61%, though it still appears upwardly challenged.
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded up to 1.0983
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10:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: fading the rally?
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09:55 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:45 EDTMarket extends losses after JPMorgan miss
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09:30 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are back under the gun
U.S. equities are back under the gun after mixed earnings results in the financial sector, which saw a big miss by JPM and a beat by Wells. JPM profits sank 19% thanks to lower fixed income trading and mortgage revenue declines, knocking its shares over 3% lower, while Wells EPS topped $1.05 vs $0.97 forecasts, with profits up 14%. PPI rose 0.5% in Mar, while core was 0.6%, contributing to the flurry of info digested by investors to round out the week. While the Fed is unlikely alter its taper course after the inflation data, this news could sit a little uncomfortably. The Dow is 54-points lower, S&P is off 6-points and NASDAQ tanked another 17-points after leading losses this week, above earlier lows. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei slumped 2.38% thanks to yen strength and global market weakness, while the Shanghai Comp declined 0.18% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.5% and the German DAX is 1.9% lower. Former "mo-mo" high flyers Tesla and Netflix remain under pressure as the tech slide continues. News that Cisco and Juniper routers picked up the "Heartbleed" virus was not helpful either. IMF meetings are set to launch in DC and up next is U. Michigan sentiment, forecast to rise to 81.0.
09:00 EDTThe 0.5% U.S. March PPI rise with a 0.6% core price increase
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up briefly
FX Action: The dollar perked up briefly following the hotter PPI outcome, taking EUR-USD to session lows under1.3865, and USD-JPY up ten points to 101.55.Equity futures continue to move lower, while yields edged slightly higher.
08:43 EDTUBS global paper/forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:40 EDTU.S. PPI (final demand) jumped 0.5% in March with the core up 0.6%
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08:39 EDTUBS healthcare and biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Analyst Goodman and Biotech Analyst Roden provide a 1Q14 update and outlook for the Healthcare and Biotech industries on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 11 at 10 am.
08:37 EDTFutures remain lower following producer prices data
Stock futures continue to point to a lower open following the release of the producer prices report. The data showed that prices rose 0.5% in March The core reading, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.6% versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. .
08:36 EDTJPMorgan's strategist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:21 EDTCredit Suisse healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:07 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a press briefing
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08:01 EDTDA Davidson analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Engineering & Construction Analyst Rogers provides an industry update and outlook for the Engineering & Construction sector on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 14 at 11 am.
08:00 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: risk off trading continues with bonds gaining
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07:38 EDTThe Atlantic Council hosts a discussion
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05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 11
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05:49 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
April 10, 2014
22:10 EDTChina's CPI rose at a 2.4% y/y rate in March
China's CPI rose at a 2.4% y/y rate in March (NSA) after the 2.0% rate of growth in February. PPI fell at a 2.3% y/y pace in March after contracting at a 2.0% y/y clip in February. Both reports were in-line with expectations. The government's inflation target is 3.5% for 2014, identical to 2013. But that looks like a stretch, with CPI likely to see a 3.0% average growth rate this year at best.
21:31 EDTWeek of 4/14 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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21:31 EDTWeek of 4/23 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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18:45 EDTBurwell to be nominated as Sebelius replacement, NY Times says
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18:38 EDTSebelius to resign at U.S. health secretary, Bloomberg says
Kathleen Sebelius will resign as U.S. health secretary with an announcement expected tomorrow, reports Bloomberg, citing two people familiar with the decision. Reference Link
18:27 EDTSebelius to resign as U.S. Health Secretary, Bloomberg reports
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 3/31 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$37.0B
16:32 EDTWeek of 4/18 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:00 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Risk off in techland played right back into the hands of the bond market on Thursday, despite a dive in jobless claims and jump in trade prices, which were quickly forgotten in the melee. Putin continued to play the energy card on Europe, while NATO squirmed about the Russian troop build-up. WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath concurred that the Fed may still be more worried about deflation following up on the more dovish minutes. That contributed to dollar declines that fed right back into an over 2.5% NASDAQ loss at one stage. The bond reopening accordingly went relatively smoothly, leaving long yields near month-lows as a result.
14:30 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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14:28 EDTChina won't launch major stimulus, South China Morning Post says
China will not unveil "strong" economic stimulus measures in response to weak trade data announced today, China Premier Li Keqiang said, according to The South China Morning Post. Instead, Beijing will respond to "temporary fluctuations in the economy" by "promoting healthy development," the newspaper quoted the premier as saying. He added that the government is confident that the economy will remain "in a reasonable range," South China Morning Post stated. Reference Link
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are loitering near lows
Treasury Action: yields are loitering near lows following the sharp narrowing in the budget gap, which was deeper than expected, and certainly didn't hurt the bond bid today. The 10-year yield nosed up from 2.614% session lows earlier to the 2.637% area after toppling from 2.687% session highs with the NASDAQ slump. Stocks are attempting to put in a floor for the day after tumbling over 2.5%, as is USD-JPY.
14:10 EDTTreasury reported a $36.9 budget deficit for March
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14:03 EDTTreasury Budget data reported
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14:03 EDTWeek of 4/19 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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14:03 EDTMarch Durable Goods Orders to be released at 08:30
13:54 EDTMarkets deep in the red
The major equity indexes are sharply lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq logging the session's largest losses, trading down more than 2.5%, while the S&P and Dow are both lower by more than 1%. After two straight sessions of gains, the averages opened lower and downside momentum has not relented during the as the indexes are currently near their lows. Market internals are very negative, with decliners leading advancers by 3:1 and down volume leading up volume by 4:1. Crude oil prices are flat, and gold is higher by 1.1%. The Dow is down 200 points, the S&P 500 is down 29 points, and the Nasdaq is down 111 points.
13:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: call liquidation
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY based at 101.33
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13:15 EDTTreasury $13 B 30-year auction was solid
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: a solid bond reopening
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12:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction preview: this is a difficult sale to handicap
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12:25 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans said the Fed tries to pay attention
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12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy flows in 5s
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11:25 EDTNASDAQ is back under pressure
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11:12 EDTNATO says Russian military built-up, on ready at Ukraine border, WSJ reports
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $18 B 5-year TIPS sale for next Thursday
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $3.22 B in Treasury notes
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: vol was bid on 5s
Treasury Option Action: vol was bid on 5s according to sources, who cited a purchase of 5k in 119.5 straddles on Jun 5s, thought to be the work of a left coast fund. Others noted bearish demand for 10k in 141.4/143 put spreads on Jun bunds. Jun 5s are 4-ticks firmer near 119-182.
10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY tested 102 earlier
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10:35 EDTPIMCO's Gross asks: "Am I Really Such a Jerk?"
PIMCO's Gross asks: "Am I Really Such a Jerk?" in a Businessweek article, as he licks his wounds following the departure of his CEO and investor withdrawals, quipping "at least my wife loves me." Self-deprecation has been his foil for criticism in the past and he appears to be wielding it again heavily in this article, which dwells on the cult of personality.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending April 4
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10:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is building
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is building now that key events are out of the way. Issues are likely to be readily absorbed too, in the bullish aftermath from the FOMC. Chesapeake Energy plans a $3 B 5-year FRN, an 8-year, and a 12-year senior note sale. State Bank of India has a benchmark 5- and 10-year. Also, FHLB will price a $3 B 3-year today. Ventas Relaty is offering $300 M in 3s and $400 M in 10s. Turkiye Garanti is offering benchmark sized 5-year notes. Suam Finance announced a $500 M 10-year and Endesa plans a $400 M 10-year.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is purchasing $2.75 B to $3.5 B in notes
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10:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: fairly heavy overnight flows
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10:07 EDTAverages lower despite dip in jobless claims
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD held 1.0850 support
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09:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
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09:45 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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09:25 EDTThe U.S. trade price report revealed surprisingly big core price gains
The U.S. trade price report revealed surprisingly big core price gains in March that extended trade price firmness in the prior two months, alongside a big food export price surge and a climb in petroleum import prices that followed big gains for both in February. For 2014 overall, import prices ex-petroleum and export prices ex-agriculture have posted surprisingly large respective year-to-date gains of 1.2% and 1.6%. This follows respective 2013 declines of 1.2% and 0.3%, near-zero figures of 0.1% and -0.3% in 2012, and declines for both in Q4 of 2011. Analysts saw big average respective monthly gains over the twenty-six months before that of 0.3% and 0.5%. The trade price firming in 2014 may reflect some dissipation of the global growth weakness of the last two years that allowed energy price declines and a flat food price trend, as did the 3% rate of climb for the dollar in 2012 and 2013. For the remaining March inflation reports, analysts expect respective headline and core price gains of 0.3% and 0.1% for CPI, 0.2% and 0.1% for PCE chain prices, and 0.2% for both for PPI.
09:15 EDTFed getting worried about low inflation
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09:00 EDTThe 32k U.S. initial claims drop to a cycle-low 300k
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices rose 0.6% in March with exports up 0.8%
U.S. import prices rose 0.6% in March with exports up 0.8%, both stronger than expected. The 0.9% surge in February import prices was not revised. Petroleum prices inched up 0.1% after a 4.7% climb in February (revised from 4.4%). Excluding petroleum, prices rose 0.6%. Strength was in Foods/beverages, up 3.7%. Industrial supplies prices were up 0.9%. Import prices with China dipped 0.1% versus the 0.2% February gain. Prices with Canada were up 1.7%. The 0.6% gain in February export prices was revised to 0.7% (and January's 0.2% gain was nudged up to 0.3%). Agricultural prices rose 2.7% after a 1.4% rebound (revised from 1.7%). Excluding ag, prices were up 0.5%. Foods/beverages were up 2.7%, with industrial supply prices up 1.2% after a 1.7% surge (revised from 1.6%).
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims fell 32k to 300k in the week ended April 5
U.S. initial jobless claims fell 32k to 300k in the week ended April 5 from a revised 332k at the end of March (was 326k). This was the lowest print since May of 2007. The 4-week average was 316.25k versus 321k previously (revised from 319.5k). Continuing claims fell 62k to 2,776k in the week ended March 29, from a revised 2.838k previously (was 2,836k).
08:38 EDTFutures move slightly lower following claims data
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported
Week of 4/5 Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Average at 316.25K
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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08:31 EDTImport Prices data reported.
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08:15 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:15 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended April 5 are expected to see a 3k increase to 329k (median 320k). The 16k U.S. initial claims bounce to 326k in the final week of March reversed the 13k drop to 310k (was 311k) from 323k in the BLS survey week, as claims oscillate well below the lofty 349k figure at the end of February. The March tightening in claims after the February overshoot likely reflects a March unwind of prior weather distortions.
07:55 EDTBank of England keeps Bank Rate at 0.5%
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07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08% after a 0.07% close Wednesday. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.08% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dipped to 0.08850% after edging up to 0.08860% yesterday. The 1-week rate rose to 0.12045% versus 0.11925%. The 3-month rate dropped to 0.22705% from 0.22755%. And the 12-month rate was fell to 0.54850% from 0.55300%. In the repo market, it's the current 5-year note that is special at -0.13%.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bond markets remain in rally mode
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07:39 EDTInternational Monetary Fund to hold a discussion with Christine Lagarde
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07:36 EDTFutures quiet following yesterday’s big advance
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07:35 EDTCFA Society of St. Louis to hold a discussion
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07:33 EDTBrookings Institute to hold a discussion on global monetary policy
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07:31 EDTSEC to hold a committee meeting
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07:26 EDTNYSSA to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTEvercore to hold a conference
Evercore Mini-Conference: Pragmatic Advertising is being held in New York on April 10.
06:55 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:34 EDTChina's exports, imports unexpectedly dropped last month, NY Times says
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05:57 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 10
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05:48 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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05:30 EDTMarch China trade data may not be as weak as they seem
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The USD came under pressure against the AUD
FX Update: The USD came under pressure against the AUD, which rallied on a stellar Australian jobs report, the JPY, which gained on hawkish sounding BoJ-speak, and the EUR, which extended to a 17-day high of 1.3870 in the early Asia session before settling under 1.3850. In the mix was China's March trade report, where unexpected weakness in exports and a sharp drop in imports fed concerns about economic slowdown. The saw Asia stocks give most intraday gains. Japanese stocks underperformed as the yen strengthened after BoJ's Miyao said that Japan’s economic recovery is becoming more broad-based, which further eroded expectations for further monetary stimulus. Japan's machinery orders for February also fell 8.8% m/m, below expectations, and China Premier Li downplayed the need for fresh stimulus. AUD-USD had made a new four-month peak to 0.9440 following the solid Australian jobs report, which showed a 18.1k headline gain and a dip in the jobless rate to 5.8%, but was knocked back to the 0.9400 area by the China trade numbers.
April 9, 2014
16:12 EDTWeek of 4/18 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:12 EDTMarch New Home Sales to be released at 10:00
15:00 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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15:00 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 5 are expected to see a 3k increase to 329k (median 320k). The 16k U.S. initial claims bounce to 326k in the final week of March reversed the 13k drop to 310k (was 311k) from 323k in the BLS survey week, as claims oscillate well below the lofty 349k figure at the end of February. The March tightening in claims after the February overshoot likely reflects a March unwind of prior weather distortions.
14:45 EDTWeek of 4/18 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:40 EDTTreasury Action: bull steepening trades quickly followed the FOMC Minutes
Treasury Action: bull steepening trades quickly followed the FOMC Minutes which revealed explicit worries the markets would "misconstrue" the policy moves as pointing toward less accommodation. The yield on the 2-year note has dropped to 0.36%, just shy of the 0.349% closing level on March 18, the day before the policy statement and Yellen's press conference. The 2s-10s has widened back to 232 bps, also in line with the curve just before the March 19 policy announcement/presser. The 5-year note is actually pacing the rally in Treasuries, however, down 4 bps to 1.63%. It traded at 1.55% on March 18, so has room to improve further if the Fed tightening fears are fully priced out.
14:38 EDTFed members said improved employment market justified further taper
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14:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD stops at 1.0900 were run
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields broke lower on the FOMC minutes
Treasury Action: yields broke lower on the FOMC minutes, which came off a little more dovish than expected. The minutes contained no solid definition of "considerable time," most wanted an explicit statement that the new guidance did not signal a change in policy intentions and 5 saw risks of inflation forecasts tilted to the downside. The T-note yield from the 2.72% area prior to the minutes took a stab sharply lower to 2.685% before rebounding part way to 2.70% again. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +232 bp from the +234 bp area.
14:15 EDTFOMC Minutes showed concerns markets could "misconstrue" the "dots"
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14:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar has suffered further
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14:08 EDTFed held March 4 videoconference to discuss rate guidance
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14:06 EDT'Several' Fed members felt projections overstated rate shift
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13:41 EDTAverages higher ahead of FOMC minutes
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13:35 EDTFOMC Minutes preview:
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $21 B reopening was ok but not great, as expected
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up on the 10-year results
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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12:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish put selling
Treasury Option Action: bullish put selling was reported in the form of a sale of 5k in May 119 puts against 5-year futures. Jun 5s are 4.5-ticks lower near 119-035 compared to their 119-072 to 119-025 session range, as 10-year supply and the FOMC minutes loom.
12:05 EDTU.S. equities are holding up
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has eased into 101.75
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11:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more flows coming through
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.08 B in bonds in today's buyback.
NY Fed bought $1.08 B in bonds in today's buyback. The Street offered $5.4 B. The yield on the wi 30-year has eased off to 3.56% from intraday highs of 3.57% earlier. The Desk will be in tomorrow to buy $2.75 B to $3.5 B in April 2018 through December 2018 notes.
10:41 EDTBofA/Merrill's REITs analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Research Analyst Feldman, along with regional analysts from Colliers International, provide an update on the conditions in the warehouse markets including leasing activity, tenant demand and investment sales ahead of the 1Q14 earnings season on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 16 at 1:30 pm.
10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of April 4
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10:30 EDTTreasury 10-year auction outlook:
Treasury 10-year auction outlook: this could be a difficult sale. There has been some concession building ahead of the auction with the wi edging up 2 bps to 2.71%, slightly toward the higher end of the 2.74% to 2.675% range over the past several days. The cheapening should help support demand today, although an award rate here would be the lowest since October. The issue isn't all that cheap on the curve either, and has richened slightly versus the Bund. Hence, traders may not see sufficient value here to make a big play. Also the advent of the FOMC Minutes (released an hour after the bid deadline) and fears of a hawkish leaning could also leave some buyers sidelined. On the plus side, there is $50 B in maturing issues to mostly offset the $64 B offered. Additionally, the dollar has cheapened versus JPY and that may make the paper more palatable to Japanese investors. The March reopening was awarded at 2.729% and garnered a solid 2.92 cover (2.66 average) and a 42.4% indirect bid (43.3% average). Direct bidders took a big 27.5% while primary dealers were awarded a smallish 29.1%.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $900 M to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report
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10:24 EDTBofA/Merrill's REITs analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:24 EDTCBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index down 3.7%
CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index down 3.7% to 18.40; compared to its 50-day moving average of 17.02
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed higher
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.0912 lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale inventories rose .5% in February with sales up 0.7%
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10:03 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
February Wholesale Trade Inventories up 0.5% vs. consensus of 0.6% for the month
09:45 EDTEarnings season optimism lifts market at open
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09:42 EDTBofA/Merrill's IT hardware analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
IT Hardware & Storage Analyst Craig discusses storage in the data center, spending expectations and technology trends on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 10 at 2 pm.
09:30 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning included the sale of 5k in Short may 88/91/93 put butterflies. The Jun 2014 contract is a half-tick higher ar 99.77, while the deferreds are mostly 1-4 ticks lower.
08:45 EDTU.S. equities extended their rebound
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08:41 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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08:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:55 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08% after a 0.05% close Tuesday. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.3125% yesterday with a 0.09% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were flat to higher at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate inched up to 0.08860% from 0.08850% yesterday. The 1-week rate rose to 0.11925% from 0.11850%. The 3-month rate rose to 0.22755% from 0.22730%. And the 12-month rate was steady at 0.55300%. In the repo market, it's the current 3-year note that is special at -0.12%.
07:38 EDTChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans to be keynote speaker at conference
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans gives a keynote speech, "Fed Communications and Goal-Oriented Monetary Policy" at the 23rd Annual Hyman P. Minksy Conference being held in Washington, D.C. on April 9 at 3:30 pm.
07:37 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.6%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.6% in data released earlier, along with an increase in the purchase index of 2.7% and a drop in the refinancing index of 4.9% for the week ended Apr-4. Mortgage rates were stable as the stock market began its swoon last week after the relatively tame Mar payrolls print, with the average 30-year fixed rate unchanged at 4.56%. Since then, Russian geographic ambitions appeared to manifest inside the Ukraine again, which kept the markets unsettled and a lid on market yields. Winter hasn't been kind to the housing sector, though there's expected to be a spring thaw for the sector along with the usual seasonal uptick. For more on housing, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasury yields edged higher overnight
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07:26 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
Greater China London 1:1 Forum is being held in London, England on April 9-10.
07:17 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
Week of 4/4 MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index down -5.0% for the week
07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
Week of 4/4 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index down -1.6% for the week
07:00 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:06 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 9
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05:46 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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05:30 EDTFX Action: The USD has managed a rebound
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The AUD rose to a new high on data
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April 8, 2014
16:50 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
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15:30 EDTFed's Plosser didn't discuss the economy or monetary policy
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15:01 EDTMarch Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00
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15:01 EDTWeek of 4/19 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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15:01 EDTWeek of 4/19 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
14:10 EDTU.S. stocks have bounced, led by technology.
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14:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields are slightly lower after the solid auction results
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13:58 EDTAverages higher with Nasdaq leading
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13:40 EDTFed's Kocherlakota said he dissented at the FOMC due to low inflation
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13:15 EDTTreasury 3-year note sale was well sponsored
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13:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has given up the 102 handle
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12:50 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview
Treasury 3-year auction preview: at least average results are expected for this $30 B offering which leads off the $64 B April refunding. The wi is little changed today at 0.90%, having ranged from 0.99% on Friday to 0.88% yesterday. The roll has cheapened slightly. Additionally, a stop here would be the highest since September. There is just over $50 B in maturing issues as well. Other supporting factors include diminished Fed tightening expectations, global growth uncertainties, proclivities toward curve steepeners, and geopolitical tensions. The softer USD-JPY could also entice Japanese accounts. On the other hand, demand at auctions has been slipping, especially from overseas accounts. The market isn't particularly short (JPMorgan client survey showed the most net longs since November 18). And despite the soothing in rate hike fears since the FOMC, there is still a lot of underlying angst. The March sale stopped at 0.802% and garnered a 3.25 cover (average 3.28) and 29.9% indirect bid (average 33.2%).
11:50 EDTTreasury's $25 B 4-week bill auction was strong
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11:31 EDTFBR Capital analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $814 M in TIPS
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.75 B to $1 B in TIPS
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10:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 65 cents/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 65 cents/bbl at $101.09, as Ukraine/Russian tensions simmer. NATO warned of "grave consequences" should Russia launch an invasion into eastern Ukraine. A weaker dollar has supported as well, though expectations for fresh Libyan production to the world market may limit gains for now.
10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 299k in February to 4,173k
U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 299k in February to 4,173k, from a revised 3,874k in January (was 3,974k). Professional and business services paced the advance, followed by trade/transport. Quitters rebounded 14k to 2,382k, led by the leisure and hospitality industry, after falling 49k to 2,368k previously (revised from 2,375k). Hirings rose 71k to 4,587k, versus the prior 4,516k (revised from 4,535k). Note that the JOLTS report, and especially the quit component, is a focal point for Fed Chair Yellen.
10:05 EDTU.S. JOLTS preview:
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touch 1.0917 lows
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09:51 EDTAverages mixed in early trade with Nasdaq leading, Dow lagging
Stock futures traded below fair value through the early hours of the pre-market session but recovered right before the open, leading to a slightly lower open for the broader market. The averages are mixed in the early going as the market seeks to halt the steep slide it has suffered in recent days. About twenty minutes into trading, the Dow is down 8 points, the Nasdaq is up 12 points, the S&P is little changed.
08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:30 EDTU.S. stocks remain defensive
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08:15 EDTCanada Building Permits Preview
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08:15 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
Fed funds opened at 0.08% after a 0.06% close Monday. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.3125% yesterday with a 0.09% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate rebounded to 0.08850% versus yesterday's 0.08650%. The 1-week rate rose to 0.11850% from 0.11820%. The 3-month rate dipped to 0.22730% from 0.22935%. And the 12-month rate edged up to 0.55300% from 0.55210%. In the repo market, it's the current 5-year note that is special at -0.16%.
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rose 1.5%
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07:54 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President speaks on financial regulations
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
Week of 4/5 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales up 1.5% for the week
07:52 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
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07:49 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President to discuss the economy
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kocherlakota discusses where the economy is headed at the Rochester Chamber of Commerce Luncheon Meeting being held in Rochester, NY on April 8 at 1:30 pm.
07:48 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society to hold a discussion
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07:46 EDTCFA Society of Atlanta to hold a luncheon discussion
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed, largely in wait and see mode. Meanwhile, European and Asian bonds are mostly lower. Equities are generally in the red too, though Chinese shares bounced. Overnight news was limited. The BoJ left policy unchanged, as expected, and Governor Kruoda's press conference was rather boilerplate. However, there's been some suggestion that it leaned to the hawkish side, hence boosting JPY but weighing on JGBs and the Nikkei. Today's calendar is thin, though includes the February JOLTS data, which is one of the several reports on Fed Chair Yellen's radar screen. Weekly chain store sales data are also due. There's also Fedspeak from Kocherlakota and Plosser, both voters this year. The Treasury auctions $30 B in 3-year notes to kick off the $64 B refunding. The NY Fed will purchase $0.75 B to $1 B in TIPS. Alcoa also announces to lead off for this earnings season, though there is little to follow until Friday's JPMorgan and Well Fargo announcements. Also headlining this week are the FOMC Minutes (Wednesday).
07:24 EDTBernstein to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTNYSSA to hold a forum
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07:05 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 8
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05:47 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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04:05 EDTBoJ Governor Kuroda said the Japanese economy will recover
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02:15 EDTFX Update: Yen firmness was the main theme
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April 7, 2014
15:15 EDTU.S. consumer credit climbed $16.5 B in February
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15:00 EDTConsumer Credit data reported
February Consumer Credit at $16.5B vs. consensus of $14.0B for the month
14:55 EDTU.S. consumer credit preview:
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13:53 EDTMarket remains weak in afternoon trade
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12:35 EDTFed's Bullard acknowledged there is considerable room for debate
Fed's Bullard acknowledged there is considerable room for debate about the merits of global monetary policy coordination, in remarks before the Asian/Pacific Business Outlook Conference. It's his belief that the gains are small, in contrast to the alternative view that the global equilibrium has been "unnecessarily volatile" due to U.S. policy. He suggested the "taper tantrum" from last summer re-energized the debate. He didn't say much on the economy or Fed policy per se, though added he's worried about low inflation (analysts know that) but believes it should be headed higher toward the 2% target.
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched the London low of 1.0967
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was well received
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11:25 EDTWeek Ahead: Beyond the Headlines
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11:10 EDTFed bought $1.018 B in bonds
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $25 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.9 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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09:59 EDTSlide continues as new week starts with earnings on deck
Stock futures traded below fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a slightly lower open for the broader market. The market is trying to reverse its slide following Friday's sell-off saw the the Dow and S&P lose about 1% and the Nasdaq pull back by over 2.5%. However, investors will receive little help from the economic calendar, as there is little scheduled for release not only today but throughout the week. Earnings season will kick off with Alcoa (AA) set to report after tomorrow's close and JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) slated to report at the end of the week. About thirty minutes into trading, the Dow is down 58 points, the Nasdaq is down 13 points and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been meandering
FX Action: USD-CAD has been meandering on either side of 1.10 from the North American open, after putting in a 1.0967 low overnight. Offers noted from 1.1020 have limited gains to 1.1009 so far, while upbeat Canadian data seen last week should keep the near term bias to the downside. Good bids are reported at 1.0950.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: supply picks up this week with $64 B in coupon auctions
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09:11 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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08:45 EDTU.S. stocks remain on the backfoot
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08:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 76 cents/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 76 cents/bbl at $100.38 in early trade, as Libyan rebels and the government agreed to end an oil blockade, shutting in about 600k bpd of crude. Countering the prospects for more supply, tensions in Ukraine have increased, following reports that pro-Russian protesters took over administrative buildings in Eastern Ukraine. Support is seen at $100/bbl now.
08:05 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:05 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:58 EDTFutures lower as market slide continues
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07:49 EDTThe National Press Club to hold a news conference
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07:30 EDTAmerican Association of Neurological Surgeons to hold annual meeting
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07:28 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
2014 Enterprise IT Forum is being held in New York on April 7.
07:23 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility at four-week lows
Market-Vector Russia ETF Trust overall option implied volatility of 28 is below a level of 40 from March 14, however above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk from a three-weeks ago.
06:50 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:22 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 7
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05:47 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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03:35 EDTThe BoJ is expected to increase stimulus in July
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April 5, 2014
19:29 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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19:29 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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19:29 EDTImport Prices data reported.
March Import Prices at % vs. consensus of 0.2% for the month.
19:29 EDTExport Prices data reported.
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09:24 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
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April 4, 2014
16:51 EDTMoody's cuts Ukraine rating to 'Caa3' from 'Caa2,' outlook negative
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16:05 EDTTreasury Market Summary: markets were whipsawed by the jobs report
Treasury Market Summary: markets were whipsawed by the jobs report as the 192k increase in nonfarm payrolls disappointed expectations for a much loftier pick up (whisper number in the 250k to 300k range). But taken as a whole, the report was strong and basically voided the weather-induced weakness at the start of the year. Treasury yields dove lower on bullish curve steepeners, unwinding the bear flatteners that had been a general trend since the March 19 FOMC instilled rate hike fears into the trade. The 5s-30s spread gapped out over 5 bps to 188 bps; the spread narrowed over 10 bps on March 19 after Yellen's "6-month" gaff. Stocks were hammered lower with the NASDAQ bearing the brunt of the selling, dropping 2.5%.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are hanging on to gains amid a beat down in equities
Treasury Action: Treasuries are hanging on to gains amid a beat down in equities with the NASDAQ off over 100 points (-2.3%) after the headline payroll print disappointed. The belly of the curve is outperforming as the market rethinks its Fed outlook. However, analysts still read a lot of strength in the jobs report and suspect today's gains won't last. The 5-year yield dropped 10 bps to dip fractionally below 1.70%. The benchmarke10-year yield slid to 2.71%. Supply headlines next week with $64 B in coupon offerings (Tuesday-Thursday), while the FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) will be the next focal point. It will be educational to see the tone of the discussion, the first under Yellen's leadership, and the comments underlying the shift away from the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold. Data is light next week with just trade prices, consumer credit, the Treasury budget, and PPI. Earnings season also gets underway.
14:00 EDTAverages lower as Nasdaq tumbles
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has fallen to near 103.30
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11:00 EDTGuggenheim policy analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD held 1.0955
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09:54 EDTMarket gives up early gains, Nasdaq slides into red
Stock futures firmed following the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, leading to a higher open for the broader market. Despite the Dow hitting another new high the market had difficulty gathering any upside momentum. The averages have turned mixed, with the Nasdaq the first index to cross into negative territory and the S&P and Dow struggling to stay on the positive side of the flat line. About 25 minutes into the session, the Dow is up 13 points, the Nasdaq is down 15 points and the S&P is up 2 points.
09:45 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on quarterly forecasts
For the U.S. jobs data impact on quarterly forecasts, analysts still expect 1.3% GDP growth in Q1, after growth of 2.6% in Q4, though jobs data now imply upside risk given a 1.6% Q1 hours-worked gain that's substantially stronger than the flat figure implied after the last round of jobs data. The Q1 hours-worked increase was similar to the 1.5% Q4 clip. Our GDP forecasts imply a flat Q1 productivity figure, after a Q4 growth rate of 1.8%. For 2014 overall, analysts expect 2.7% Q4/Q4 growth for real GDP with a 2.4% Dec/Dec hours-worked gain, following a 2013 mix of 2.6% and 1.8%, and a 2012 mix of 2.0% for both. Analysts expect a 1.1% productivity rise for 2014 Q4/Q4 following a higher 1.3% rise in 2013 but a smaller 0.8% 2012 gain. Nonfarm payroll growth was surprisingly stable over the last four quarters, and with quarterly gyrations that have largely run counter to quarterly GDP growth.
09:35 EDTFor the jobs data impact on other March reports
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. jobs report
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09:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: jobs data won't alter the FOMC stance
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was finally able to break
FX Action: USD-CAD was finally able to break the key 1.1000 level following the better Canadian and about in-line U.S. employment reports. USD-CAD had found solid support into the 1.1000 mark all week, though has now touched 1.0962 lows following the data. Initial support is seen at 1.0955 (March 6 low), followed by the February 19 base of 1.0911.
08:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are rebounding
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar traded briefly lower
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08:40 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 192k in March
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08:39 EDTStock futures jump following nonfarm payrolls report
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08:32 EDTEmployment Situation Private Payrolls data reported
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08:32 EDTEmployment Situation Av Workweek data reported
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08:32 EDTEmployment Situation Average Hourly Earnings data reported
March Employment Situation Average Hourly Earnings up 0.0% vs. consensus of 0.2% for the month
08:32 EDTEmployment Situation Unemployment Rate data reported
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08:32 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls data reported
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08:30 EDTU.S. March nonfarm payrollls rise 192K; Unemployment rate stays 6.7%
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08:20 EDTU.S. stocks have firmed in advance of the employment data
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 84 cents/bbl
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08:10 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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08:00 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:42 EDTBernstein's European luxury goods analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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07:40 EDTBernstein's European auto analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:39 EDTDA Davidson's energy analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:38 EDTBernstein's consumer products analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
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07:29 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs data
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07:23 EDTHouse Natural Resources Committee to hold a hearing
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07:21 EDTJoint Economic Committee to hold a hearing
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06:30 EDTEuropean FX Update
European FX Update: EUR-USD managed to edge out a new low of 1.3495, which is a pip shy of the Feb-28 low. Trading conditions were quiet ahead of the U.S. payrolls release, but the move nonetheless shows the bearish bias in the market following the ECB meeting yesterday. There is also an anticipation of a strong, USD-positive U.S. jobs report. Analysts are forecasting a +200k headline and note upside risk due to an improving path for claims and rebound from weather depressed readings. Elsewhere, USD-JPY flat-lined around 103.85-90, below yesterday's 104.11 two-month peak as the yen's recent bout of pronounced weakening came to a pause. EUR-CHF managed to eke out a fresh high of 1.2239, which breached the Mar-26 peak to make this the highest level seen since mid-February. The move reflects an unwinding of the Swiss franc's safe-haven premium.
06:02 EDTWeek of 4/16 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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06:02 EDTWeek of 4/7 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 4
Globex S&P futures are recently up 3.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.05%, DAX up 0.39%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $101.01, natural gas down 1.32%, gold at $1291 an ounce, and copper of up 0.59%.
05:44 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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03:15 EDTFed hawk Fisher expressed concern about predictable commitments
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02:25 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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April 3, 2014
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Reserve Bank credit data reported
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 3/24 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at $20.0B
15:45 EDTWeek of 4/11 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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09:24 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 4/12 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 312K
14:55 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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14:20 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
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14:04 EDTAverages lower as Nasdaq lags
The major equity indexes are lower, with the Nasdaq currently lagging the Dow and S&P, a pattern seen in recent weeks which had been absent earlier this week. Market internals are negative, with declining stocks leading advancers by a bit less than 2:1, as down volume leads up volume by about the same margin. Crude oil prices are right at $100 a barrel, and gold is down 0.4%. The Dow is down 17 points, the S&P 500 is down 4 points, and the Nasdaq is down 42 points.
14:00 EDTTreasury Action: the market has recovered earlier losses
Treasury Action: the market has recovered earlier losses with the 30-year bond outperforming amid jockeying ahead of tomorrow's employment report. There's been a resumption of curve flattening trades. Sources suggest shorts have been covering, thinking the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself pricing in a solid employment report tomorrow. Buyers also stepped in with the 30-year yield challenging 3.66% and the 19-year at 2.80%. Erosion in stocks has also provided some support. Also, Bunds rallied after ECB's Draghi suggested the council is moving toward additional stimulus measures.
13:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some muscular bullish bets
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12:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: more bearish positioning
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12:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance has thinned out a bit
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11:20 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury announced a $64 B 3-pronged package of auctions
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11:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD lows
FX Action: USD-CAD lows for the past 5 session have been between 1.1001 and 1.1014, never once dipping below 1.1000. Lower daily highs have been the case as well since Tuesday, and it appears the pairing is boxing itself into a corner, and about ready for a breakout. Sell-stops under the figure are said to be on the rise since yesterday, though bids at 1.1000 reportedly remain.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.08 B in bonds
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11:10 EDTFed Governor Stein announced his resignation from the Fed Board
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11:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY topped out at 104.11
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending March 28
Gas inventories 74 Bcf draw vs. consensus of 75 Bcf draw.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying buy $0.9 B to $1.15 B bonds
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10:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain indifferent
Treasury Action: yields remain indifferent to the ISM services report, which came in higher, but below elevated expectations, though some underlying components such as employment, prices and new orders were quite firm. Yet the T-note yield continues to consolidate under 2.80% as stocks make a slight feint higher, evidently patiently awaiting parolls data.
10:20 EDTThe U.S. ISM-NMI March bounce to 53.1
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10:10 EDTU.S. ISM nonmanufacturing index rose 1.5 points to 53.1 in March
U.S. ISM nonmanufacturing index rose 1.5 points to 53.1 in March after slipping 2.4 points to 51.6 in February (that was the lowest since February 2010). Components were generally favorable. The employment index bounced to 53.6 from 47.5, though is a little shy of numbers since the summer. New orders improved to 53.4 from 51.3. New export orders recovered to 49.5 from 47.5. Prices paid climbed to 58.3 from 53.7. The composite manufacturing and services index was 53.2 from 51.8.
10:05 EDTPIMCO April Investment Outlook:
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10:00 EDTISM Non-Mfg Index Composite data reported
March ISM Non-Mfg Index Composite at 53.1 vs. consensus of 53.3
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit nonmanufacturing index rose to 55.3 in final March print
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09:47 EDTDow hits new all-time high
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09:45 EDTU.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Preview
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09:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields are little changed, plying narrow ranges
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09:35 EDTThe U.S. trade deficit widening to $42.3 B
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09:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning at the short-end
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mixed ahead of the open
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09:00 EDTThe 16k U.S. initial claims bounce to 326k
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields inched up
Treasury Action: yields inched up after a mixed round of data, with claims up and the trade gap wider, though neither really tips the scales on payrolls tomorrow and markets will be following ECB Draghi's words closely. The T-note yield initially rose over 2.805% before pulling back, having bounced yesterday on bearish positioning following the solid ADP jobs print. The 2s-10s spread remains elevated near +235 bp.
08:45 EDTU.S. trade gapped out 7.7% to -$42.3 B in February
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 16k to 326k in the week ended March 29
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08:39 EDTFutures remain quiet following release of economic data
Stock futures continued to drift following the release of economic data. There were 326,000 initial claims versus the expected 319,000 claims. There were 2.8M continuing claims versus the expected 2.8M. The Trade Balance report showed a deficit of $42.3B versus the expected deficit of $38.5B. Earlier, the Challenger job cuts report showed that job cuts were down 30.2% versus the same period a year ago.
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 3/29 Jobless Claims up 16K from prior week
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported
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08:31 EDTInternational Trade Balance Level data reported
February International Trade Balance Level at -$42.3B vs consensus of -$38.8B
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. trade deficit preview:
U.S. trade deficit preview: The February trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$38.5 B (median -$39.0 B) after spending two months near the -$39 B level. The deficit widened unexpectedly to $39.1 B in Jan, thanks to a surprise petroleum import volume surge, following a December widening to a $39.0 (was $38.7) B gap from a $35.2 (was $34.6) B four-year deficit low in November. preview for more.
08:18 EDTBarclays power, metals/mining analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Power & Utilities Analyst Ford, along with Airfreight & Ground Transportation Analyst Oglenski, Metals & Mining Analyst Gagliano and Commodities Analyst Pehlivanova discuss transforming U.S. power markets and the implications for coal and natural gas on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 3 at 11:30 am.
08:04 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF volatility down after Russia’s annexation of Crimea
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07:55 EDTU.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs declined 7.4k in March
U.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs declined 7.4k in March to 34,399k (nsa), after falling 3.3k in February. Compared to last March, announced job cuts are down 30.2% y/y. For Q1, there were 121k announced layoffs, down 16% y/y, the fewest for the period since 1995. Challenger notes that Q1 typically has the most cuts. Healthcare paced March cuts, as hospitals look to reduce staff amid lower Medicare reimbursements and workers hired to aid ACA sign ups are unwound, while retail paced Q1 layoffs.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
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07:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 29 cents/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 29 cents/bbl at $99.33 into the N.Y. open, where prospects for up to 600k bpd of production coming on line from Libya, are countered by a more upbeat U.S. economy, following Wednesday's better ADP jobs report. Oil trade was relatively quiet overnight, as traders await the ECB meeting, and U.S. claims data for fresh directional cues.
07:46 EDTECB leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%
The Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.25%, 0.75% and 0.00% respectively.
07:41 EDTCommodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold a roundtable
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07:31 EDTHoulihan Lokey to hold a conference
European Private Companies Conference is being held in London, England on April 3.
07:30 EDTChallenger Job-Cut Report Announced Layoffs data reported
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07:29 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
2014 Equity Markets Conference is being held in St. Simon's Island, Georgia on April 3-6.
07:27 EDTCIBC to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:21 EDTEuropean Central Bank President to hold a press conference
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07:16 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs data
Stock futures are trading near fair value ahead of the release of the Challenger Job Cuts report and weekly jobless claims data. The job cuts report is scheduled to be released at 7:30 am ET and is viewed as a preview of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report. The weekly jobless claims report is slated to be released at 8:30 am, and analysts are predicting that there will be 319,000 initial claims and 2.8M continuing claims.
06:45 EDTEuropean FX Update
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06:40 EDTChina's cabinet indicates stimulus could be on way, NY Times reports
Last night, China's cabinet indicated that it could implement new economic stimulus measures, saying that Beijing would “stimulate enterprises, expand domestic consumption and boost employment” this year, according to The New York Times. Reference Link
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 3
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05:47 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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April 2, 2014
19:17 EDT Beige Book to be released at 14:00
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16:00 EDTWeek of 4/11 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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09:24 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
March Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.965M
16:00 EDTWeek of 4/11 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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15:35 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:35 EDTU.S. trade deficit preview:
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Treasury yields rebounded on Weds after the ADP jobs survey gave a relatively upbeat preview of what to expect for March payrolls on Friday. Factory orders also rebounded in Feb, while dovish Fedspeakers Bullard and Lockhart seemed quite content with the current pace of the taper and potential timing with the first rate hike. Stocks didn't sustain their rally, however, and the FX market also hunkered down ahead of the ECB decision Thurs.
14:50 EDTCanada Trade Preview
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: upcoming supply should sustain the bearish undertone
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13:58 EDTAverages turn mixed
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13:48 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks at lecture
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13:40 EDTU.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Preview
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13:30 EDTFed dove Lockhart sees first rate hike in H2 of 2015
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13:20 EDTU.S. Treasury Receipts Post Solid March Gain
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12:51 EDTPresident Obama to speak on national minimum wage
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12:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: among dominant themes
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12:00 EDTMore from Bullard: the funds rate will be 4% or higher in 2016
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11:35 EDTFed's Bullard expects the first rate hike in Q1 2015
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11:30 EDTNY Fed bought $2.29 B in notes
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11:05 EDTHFT debate has resumed on Bloomberg TV
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10:55 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell under $99.10
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10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD again held the 1.10 handle
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of March 28
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. factory goods report tracked assumptions
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes dated from May 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. Treasury yields continue to climb higher on improving fundamentals, with the 7-year sector underperforming, despite today's buyback. The 7-year yield is up 6 bps to 2.37%, while the 10-year is up 5 bps to challenge 2.80%.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields nosed to fresh session highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. Factory Goods Preview
U.S. Factory Goods Preview: February factory goods orders are expected to be up 1.5% (median 1.2%) following a 0.8% decline in January. Shipments and inventories should both reveal 0.8% gains for the month. This report comes alongside the already released durable goods figures for the month where analysts saw orders up 2.2%, shipments up 0.9% and inventories up 0.8%.
10:10 EDTU.S. factory orders rebounded 1.6% in February
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10:07 EDTMarket drifting in early trading
Stock futures weakened following the generally in-line ADP employment change report, leading to a mixed open for the broader market. The indexes have moved in a narrow range since the open, with all three major averages hugging the flat line. The ISM New York report on business had a reading of 52.0, which was down from last month’s 57.0. Factory orders increased 1.6% in February, versus expectations for an increase of 1.2%. Following those reports, the Dow is up 14 points, the Nasdaq is up 7 points and the S&P is up 2 points.
10:05 EDTHilsenrath delicately stepped on the Yellen-bashing bandwagen
Hilsenrath delicately stepped on the Yellen-bashing bandwagen last night in a WSJ piece (subscription) on her selection of two ex-cons as examples of long-term unemployment in Monday's speech. That "bombshell" had been circulating on blogs for much of yesterday as a way to discredit her, especially for those made uncomfortable with her attempt to humanize the long-term unemployment picture as "not just statistics." The Fedwatcher, who has fostered the role as a Fed mouthpiece, cited both backers of and detractors to this new approach. He also confirmed that Yellen was aware of the individuals' criminal backgrounds and worked with a Chicago employment network that seeks to place ex-offenders in jobs to source them for the speech, rather than mistakenly including them. Yellen critics smelled some blood in the water after her "6-months" reference and were only too happy to jump on this one as well, however, the 4 bp back-up in T-note yields has more to do with ADP and payrolls than Fed credibility for now.
10:00 EDTFactory Orders data reported
February Factory Orders up 1.6% vs. consensus of 1.2% for the month
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are pricing in upside risk to jobs report
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09:23 EDTArgus's media and telecoms analyst hold an analyst/industry conference call
Research Director Kelleher, along with Media & Telecoms Analyst Bonner and Argus President Eade, discuss catalysts and risks in the rapidly evolving media and telecommunications sector on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on April 9 at 11 am.
09:15 EDTU.S. equities are off earlier highs after ADP
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08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is under 1.1010
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08:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish put positioning
Treasury Option Action: bearish put positioning is suspected in overnight trade, with a likely buyer of 5k in May 121.5/122.5 put spreads on 10-year futures. As Jun 10s 7-ticks lower near 123-045 at least the positioning fits with the price action after roaming in a 123-135 to 123-025 range on Globex.
08:42 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
Public Finance Transportation & Utility Conference is being held in New York on April 2-3.
08:39 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
Pan European Small & Mid Cap 14th Annual Conference is being held in London, England on April 2-3.
08:38 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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08:38 EDTStandard & Poor's to hold a symposium
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08:35 EDTThe 191k March ADP rise
The 191k March ADP rise sits only a tad below our estimate of a 205k March private payroll rise with a 200k overall payroll gain, following a February ADP boost to a 178k (was 139k) gain that reversed the gap to the 162k BLS private payroll increase. The ADP data are less subject to a March bounce from a weather-depressed February level than the BLS data, so today's small undershoot may actually suggest upside BLS payroll risk. Workers are included in the ADP payroll data even if they miss work due to bad weather, while in the BLS survey, workers are only counted as working if they worked during the BLS survey period. Also, the "as reported" ADP figures have run 26k/month weaker than private payrolls over the seventeen months since the October 2012 methodology change by Moody's. Note that the component mix of ADP gains almost exactly tracked the composition of our payroll estimate, with gains of 28k for goods employment, 20 for construction, 5k for factories and 164k for services. For a discussion of the risks with Friday's U.S. jobs report, see Monday's commentary, edited to incorporate data released since then.
08:32 EDTHMG Strategy to hold a summit
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08:30 EDTFutures drift higher following ADP employment report
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08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields spiked higher on ADP
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08:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved modestly higher
FX Action: The dollar moved modestly higher after the slightly better ADP jobs print, taking EUR-USD to intra day lows near 1.3779 from 1.3795, and USD-JPY up to 103.81 from under 103.70. Equity futures are fractionally higher, while Treasury yields edged up a touch.
08:25 EDTU.S. ADP private payrolls increased 191k in March
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08:15 EDTADP Employment Report employment data reported
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08:05 EDTU.S. ADP employment survey preview:
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07:50 EDTFed funds opened at 0.07%
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07:50 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index fell 1.2%
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07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended declines
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07:32 EDTFutures in positive territory ahead of jobs data
U.S. equity futures are slightly higher as the market looks to extend its most recent run. Investors will be watching the ADP Employment Change report which is scheduled to be released at 8:15 am ET. Analysts are predicting that the report will show that 195,000 jobs were added in March. Investors use the report to estimate the results of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Other numbers scheduled to be released today include the ISM data for the New York region, factory orders from February, and the weekly Department of Energy Inventory data.
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index data reported
Week of 3/28 MBA Purchase Applications Refinance Index down -3.0% for the week
07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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07:00 EDTEuropean FX Update
European FX Update: Trade has been characterized by a EUR dip following an MNI report of an ECB source, along with NATO warning that Russia remains a threat to the Ukraine. The JPY had also posted fresh lows against the USD and most other currencies during the Tokyo session before subsequently steadying during the European morning. EUR-USD fell to an intraday low of 1.3785, down from the a one-week high that was seen earlier at 1.3820. USD-JPY logged a high of 103.94, which is the loftiest level seen since Jan-24, before drifting to the 103.70 area. EUR-JPY made a three-week peak of 143.48 in Asia before dipping back to the 143.00 area amid the general euro pullback. Elsewhere, AUD-USD flat-lined in the low-to-mid 0.92s, and USD-CAD softened back toward the 1.1000 level. There was little sign of market concern about the NATO warning, with EUR-CHF having drifted higher and stock markets holding firm in Europe.
06:30 EDTVirtu Financial delaying IPO, sources say, Bloomberg reports
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for April 2
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05:44 EDTApril front month equity options expire, April 17, 2014
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02:10 EDTFX Action: The JPY made fresh lows
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