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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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August 14, 2014
10:45 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the wi 30-year has richened to 3.225% in the face of supply amid weaker than expected European data on the heels of the disappointing U.S. retails sales. So far the first two legs of the refunding have gone ok, and today's should too. At 3.225%, that would be the lowest stop since May 2013. Many of the factors that helped underpin yesterday's 10-year sale should support the bond as well, including wide spreads to other sovereigns, generally bullish momentum, tame inflation, and geopolitical risks. Last month's $13 B reopening was awarded at 3.369% and garnered a 2.40 cover and a whopping 53.2% indirect bid, with direct bidders accepting 11.1% with primary dealers taking 35.7%.
10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD's brief foray under 1.0900
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.6 B to $1.9 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.6 B to $1.9 B in notes dated from May 15, 2019 through April 30, 2020 note. The belly of the curve is outperforming and this purchase will add some further support. The 5-year yield is down 3 basis points to 1.549%, the lowest since late May.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending August 8
Gas inventories 78 Bcf build vs. consensus of 82 Bcf build.
09:56 EDTCitigroup real estate analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: bullish positioning included the sale of 30k in Short December 90/91 put spreads. There was also a purchase of 1k in Short March 83/86 put spreads vs 88/90 call spreads, and a bearish purchase of 10k in Red December 80/85/90 put butterflies, among others. The underlying short-dated rate futures remain well bid with the front September 2014 a half tick higher at 99.77, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks firmer as well, as Europe knocks on the door of a triple-dip recession.
09:39 EDTMarket opens slightly higher
Stock futures weakened slightly during pre-market trading after there were more jobless claims last week than were expected. The futures closed above fair value, leading to a slightly higher open for the broader market. There is little more scheduled for release from the economic calendar, the earnings season is winding down, and there is relative calm on the geopolitical front at the moment, which may make for little resistance if the market begins to move higher. The Dow began the day just 500 points shy of its all-time high. In early trading, the Dow is up 22 points, the Nasdaq is up 6 points and the S&P is up 4 points.
09:10 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
The U.S. trade price report revealed big July headline hits from falling petroleum import and food export prices, but with firmness in the ex-oil and ex-food trade price measures that left some "core" price resilience into Q3. Commodity prices are now unwind the early-2014 boosts from harsh winter weather and Middle East turmoil. Trade prices have more generally been moving sideways since 2011 as global growth weakness has allowed commodity price restraint, as has the 1%-3% annual rate of climb for the dollar since 2011. For 2014 overall, export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-petroleum are showing a slight firming path, with respective year-to-date gains of 0.6% and 0.5% that follow respective 2013 declines of 0.3% and 1.2% and near-zero figures of -0.3% and 0.1% in 2012. For the remaining July inflation reports, analysts expect flat headline figures for CPI, PCE chain prices and PPI, with core price gains of 0.2% for CPI and 0.1% for PCE chain prices and PPI.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer
U.S. equities are mildly firmer after the round of tame trades price and the claims rebound. Following the "bad is good" theme from yesterday, stocks perversely rebounded overnight led by Europe after negative GDP prints littered around the region led the markets to conclude that more stimulus would be forthcoming from the ECB. Likewise, in Asia another round of slim China lending data encouraged the same belief in the PBoC. Russia's Putin also vowed to do everything possible to stop the Ukraine conflict, though that's a double-edged sword of course. The Dow is 4-points firmer, S&P gained 1-point and NASDAQ is 2-points higher in pre-open action, shedding earlier gains. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart and Cisco missed on the earnings front, capping gains overnight, while Macy's slashed its full-year guidance, though Kohl's beat.
08:52 EDTFutures off highs, still point to slightly higher open
Stock futures are off their earlier highs but are still pointing to a slightly higher open for the broader market following the release of the weekly jobless claims data. Initial claims were 311K, versus the expected 295K, while continuing claims were 2.54M versus the expected 2.5M. The import price index showed a decline of 0.2%, versus an expected decline of 0.3%.
08:50 EDTThe 21k U.S. initial claims bounce to 311k
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08:45 EDTU.S. import prices fell 0.2%, while export prices were flat in July
U.S. import prices fell 0.2%, while export prices were flat in July. There were no revisions to June data that showed a 0.1% increase in import prices and a 0.4% decline in export prices. Petroleum import prices rose dropped 1.2% after strong gains in May and June. Excluding petroleum, prices were unchanged. Food and beverage import prices rebounded 1.0% after declines in the prior 3 months. Import prices with China and Canada dipped 0.2%. Agricultural export prices rose dove 2.2% in July, and prices were up % excluding ag rose 0.3%. Headline data weren't as analysts as analysts projected, but still don't imply any strong pick up in inflation.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed lows once more
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 17 cents at $97.42/bbl
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08:15 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended August 9 are expected to see a 3k decrease to 286k (median 298k) as analysts expect the recent decline to continue. The 14k claims drop to 289k in the first week of August defied the expected unwind of the July retooling distortions that was presumably evident with the prior 23k pop to 303k (was 302k) from the 279k mid-July cycle-low, as claims appear to be oscillating around tighter levels following the July vehicle sector retooling.
08:15 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds are higher
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07:41 EDTFutures point to higher open following yesterday’s advance
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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